CH 1. Probability

Statistics 2 - Chapter 1 Probability -
S. Kumar

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Chapter 1
PROBABILITY
Prepared by S.Kumar (Subramaniam Kumaresan)
This topic covers Chapter 2 in the Subject Guide
Introduction

This chapter assumes some previous knowledge of the students on probability. You are
advised to read Review Chapter 1 and solve revision problems given at the end of the chapter
before reading this chapter.

This chapter covers Permutations and Combinations, Statistical Independence, Conditional
Probability and Bayes theorem.

Permutations and Combinations

If the elementary outcomes in the sample space are equally likely outcomes for the random
experiment, then the calculation of probability for an event reduces to counting the number of
elementary outcomes for which that event occurs and dividing by the total number of
elementary outcomes.

In some applications the equally likely elementary outcomes are either permutations or
combinations of some selection of items. Permutations are ordered arrangements, whereas
combinations are unordered arrangements.

Consider the set with 4 numbers, S = {1, 2, 3, 4}, In how many ways can you select two
numbers from this set to form a two-digit password?

Here are the possible passwords: 12, 13, 14, 23, 24, 34, 21, 31, 41, 32, 42, 43.
Note that the first 6 two-digit numbers are reversed to get the next 6 two-digit numbers.
We say that the set of all permutations of two digits from the four digits 1, 2, 3 and 4 is
{12, 13, 14, 23, 24, 34, 21, 31, 41, 32, 42, 43}, and denote this
.

The set of all permutations of two letters from the first four letters of the English alphabet is
{ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd, dc, db, da, cb, ca, ba}.

There are four ways to choose the first letter and three ways to choose the second letter
giving 12 permutations.


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In General the number of permutations of r objects from n, denoted by
, is given
by

!
!

Note: ! 1 2 . . 3 2 1
n! gives the number of ways in which n items can be rearranged among themselves linearly.
For example, 4! 4 3 2 1 24
By convention we take 0! 1.
The set of all combinations (selecting but not rearranging) of two letters from the first four
letters of the English alphabet is {ab, ac, ad, bc, bd, cd}.
Each of these combinations is arranged to give the previous permutations. Generalising this
argument gives the formula for the number of combinations of r objects from n, denoted by
as

!
! !

For example,

!
!!

!
!!

10

Example 1

A box contains four black and six red balls. Three balls are selected at random. What is the
probability that two balls are red and one is black?
Solution

The total number of possible ways of selecting three balls out of ten balls is the combination
of three balls taken from ten balls, and is given by
= 120.
The number of ways of selecting 2 red balls out of 6 =

The number of ways of selecting 1 black ball out of 4 =

The total number of favourable cases is
60.
The required probability is
.


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Probability Rules

Addition rule
For any two events A and B, the probability of A or B is
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B).
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of A or B is
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B).

Multiplication Rule
If the events A and B are independent, then, probability of A and B is
P

If the events A and B are not independent, then, probability of A and B is
P |

Here, | is called the conditional probability of B. given that A has already occurred,
where P(A) > 0.

Conditional probability

Suppose that we are interested in a pair of events A and B and we are given the extra piece of
information that event B has already occurred. Now the question is, what is the probability of
occurrence of A, given that B has already occurred?

This type of problem can be approached with the notion of Conditional Probability. The
basic idea is that the probability of occurrence of an event is likely to depend on the
occurrence or non-occurrence of any other events.

Understanding conditional probability using sets
Consider the sample space when a die is rolled.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Let A be the event of getting a prime number. A = {2, 3, 5}
Let B be an event of getting an even number. B = (2, 4, 6}

3
6

1
2

3
6

1
2

Suppose after the die is rolled, a person who has looked at the outcome tells you that the

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outcome is an even number. This means that the event B has already occurred.
With this information, what is the probability that the outcome is a prime? In other words,
what is the probability of getting a prime number if the outcome is even? This probability is
denoted as follows:
| |
This is called conditional probability and we read | as probability of A, given B.
Now let us see how to find this probability.
To find P(A) we normally look at the possible outcomes in the sample space and write the
denominator as n(S) and calculate

. But, given that B has occurred, we dont look

at the sample space now. We look at event B and use n(B) = 3 as the total number of possible
outcomes.
In set B, do we have a prime number? If so, count the number of prime numbers in B. We
have one prime number in B.
Note that the number of prime numbers in B = n(A B) = 1.
|

1
3

The conditional probability of A given B is
|

Understanding conditional probability using cross tabulated data
Consider the following table that shows the number of full time and part time students and
their examination results.
Full time students (F) Part time students (P) Total
Pass 20 40 60
Fail 10 30 40
Total 30 70 100

From the above table, we have the following probabilities:

60
100
0.6,
40
100
0.4,
30
100
0.3,
70
100
0.7
On dividing the numerator and
denominator by n(S)

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20
100
0.2,
40
100
0.4

10
100
0.1,
30
100
0.3
The conditional probability | can be described in different ways as follows:
Probability that a (randomly selected) student passes the exam given that he/she is a full time
student
Probability that a (randomly selected) student passes the exam if he/she is a full time
student
Probability that a (randomly selected) full time student passes the exam
From the above descriptions of conditional event, it is clear that we do not consider the whole
sample space (the total number of students = 100) for conditional probability.
With the condition that the student selected is a full time student, we consider only the full
time students and use only the following part of the data:
Full time students (F)
Pass 20
Fail 10
Total 30

From the above table, |

Alternatively, we can use the conditional probability formula, |

.
In this example,
|

0.2
0.3

2
3

Understanding conditional probability using a simple random experiment
Consider an example where two cards are drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards without
replacement. Suppose that we are interested in the probability that the second card drawn is a
red card.

It is not possible to find the probability that the second card is a red card, unless we know
what the first card is.

If the first card drawn is a black card, then the required probability is
, where as if the first


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card drawn is a red card, the required probability is

Therefore, the probability of drawing the red card in the second draw (B), with the condition
that the first card drawn was black (A) is called the conditional probability of B given A. This
is denoted as P(B|A) and is given by
|

, 0.
For our example,

and

Therefore, |

It is worth recalling that |

is the same as

P |,

the multiplication theorem of probability when the two events are dependent.

Example 2

If all elementary outcomes are equally likely, and = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {3,
4}, find | |.
Solution
The sample space has 5 elementary outcomes that are equally likely, so each elementary
outcome has probability
.

|

A B = {3}. P(A B) =
1
5
.
Also
2

1 5
2 5

1
2

|


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1 5
3 5

1
3

Example 3
Suppose there is a 50% chance that you catch the 8:00am bus. If you catch the bus, you will
be on time with 90% chance. If you miss the bus, there is a 70% chance that you will be late.
What is the chance that you will be late?

Solution

P(late) = P(miss the bus and late) + P(catch the bus and late)
= P(miss the bus) P(late | miss the bus) + P(catch the bus) P(late | catch the bus)
= 0.5 0.7 + 0.5 0.1 = 40%.

Statistical Independence of two events

Two events A and B are statistically independent if and only if , .

Consider the two way table that shows the number of full time and part time students who
have passed and failed in a exam,

Pass 20 40 60
Fail 10 30 40
Total 30 70 100

We will check whether the two events F and Pass are statistically independent.

60
100
0.6,
30
100
0.3,
20
100
0.2
0.6 0.3 0.18
Therefore F and Pass are not statistically independent.
Alternatively, we can use conditional probability to verify whether the two event F and Pass
are independent.

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If | , then the events F and Pass are independent.
Here, |

, 0.6. |
Note that we can also say that,
If | , then the events F and Pass are independent.
Here, |

, 0.3. |
Whether the two events are statistically independent or not depends on the data!
Consider the cross tabulated data same as in the previous example but with different
frequency data.

Pass 10 20 30
Fail 10 20 30
Total 20 40 60

We will check whether the two events F and Pass statistically independent.

30
60

1
2
,
20
60

1
3
,
10
60

1
6

1
2

1
3

1
6

Therefore F and Pass are statistically independent.
Alternatively, we can use conditional probability to verify whether the two event F and Pass
are independent.
If | , then F and Pass are independent.
Here, |
10
20

1
2
,
30
60

1
2
. |
Therefore F and Pass are statistically independent.


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Example 4
The table below shows the probabilities of males (M) and females (F) being employed (E) or
unemployed (U) in some population (it excludes those not wishing to be employed).
M F
E 0.52 0.41 0.93
U 0.05 0.02 0.07
0.57 0.43 1.00
(a) Find the conditional probability of employment given that the person is male
(b) Find the conditional probability of being female given that the person is employed.
(c) Are the events of selecting a male and selecting an employed independent?
Solution
|

0.52
0.57
0.91
|

0.41
0.93
0.44
0.57 0.93 0.5301, 0.52

Therefore, the events M and E are not independent.

Practice Question 1
An electrical device contains 10 components connected in a sequence. The device fails if any
one of the components fails. For each component the probability that it survives a year of use
without failing is 0.2, and the failures of different components can be regarded as
independent events. What is the probability that the device fails in a year of use?

Practice Question 2
Two fair dice are rolled. A is the event of getting odd number on the first die, B is the event
of getting odd number on the second die and C is the event of getting an even sum of two
outcomes.
(a) Are the events A and B independent?
(b) Are the events B and C independent?
(c) Are the events A and C independent?


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The following example question will be solved during my lecture.
Example 5
If two events A and B are independent, then prove that
a) A
c
and B are independent
b) A and B
c
are independent
c) A
c
and B
c
are independent

In the exam, you will be asked true or false type questions where you need to give reasons
and say whether the given statement is true or false. Note that you will not be awarded any
marks if you do not give reasons. My lecture notes will cover some questions of this type in
most of the chapters either as example questions or practice questions.

Example 6

For each of the following statements below say whether the statement is true or false
explaining your answer:

(a) Let A and B be two events such that 0 and 0. If | 0, then,
| 0.

(b) If two events A and B are mutually exclusive,
1 .

(c) For two independent events A and B such that 0 and 0,
.

(d) If , then A
c
and B are independent.

Solution

(a) Given that | 0

0 0

|

0, since 0

The statement is true.


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(b)
(using De Morgans law)

1 (using the axiom, P(A
c
) = 1 P(A))

1 (using the addition rule for mutually exclusive events)

1

The statement is true.

(c)

For independent events, 0, 0, 0

The statement is false

(d) Let S be the sample space when a die is rolled. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A = {1, 2, 3, 4} and B = {1, 2}. B A.

2
6
,
2
6
,
0.

A
c
and B are not independent.
The statement is false

Note that one counter example is sufficient to prove that the statement is false.


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Practice Question 3


(a) If A and B are two events such that | , then |
(b) It is possible to find two independent events A and B such that | .
(c) A and B are events such that 0 < P(A) < 1 and 0 < P(B) < 1.
If P(A) < P(B), then A B
(d) A and B are events such that 0 < P(A) < 1 and 0 < P(B) < 1,
If P(A B) = P(A) + P(B), then A and B can not be independent.

Statistical Independence of three events

Three events A, B and C are independent if all the following four conditions are satisfied.

An example of three events that are independent:
Three fair coins are tossed. The events A, B and C are defined as:
A the first coin shows head;
B the second coin shows head;
C the third coin shows head.

The sample space is S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}

1
2
,
1
2
,
1
2

The event A B is getting heads on the first two coins, the event B C is getting heads on
the second and third coins and the event A C is getting heads on the first and the third
coins. So, from the sample space,

2
8

1
4
,
2
8

1
4
,
2
8

1
4


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1
2
1
2

1
4

1
2

1
2

1
4

1
2

1
2

1
4

From the sample space, the probability of getting heads on all three coins,

1
8

Therefore, the events A, B and C are independent.

Pair-wise independent events
If three events A, B and C are such that,
, , , ,

, then, A, B and C are pair-wise independent.

An example of three events that are not independent, but are pair-wise independent:
Two fair dice are thrown. The events A, B and C are defined as:
A the first die is even; B the second die is even; C the sum is even.
The sample space shown in the following table will be useful in understanding the
probabilities. The first number is the outcome on the first die and the second number is the
outcome on the second die.
(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
(2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
(3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
(4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
(5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
(6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)

1
2
,
1
2
,
1
2


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1
4
,
1
4
,
1
4
,
1
4

We find that,

1
2
1
2

1
4

1
2

1
2

1
4

1
2

1
2

1
4

Therefore, A, B and C are pair-wise independent.
But,

1
8

Therefore A, B and C are not independent.
Statistical independence of k events
In general, k events
, . . ,
are independent if the product rule
. .
holds and if every subset of k

events is independent.

Example 7


(a) If A, B and C are independent events with positive probability, then A and B can not
be mutually exclusive.

(b) If A, B, C and D are independent events with positive probability, A B and C D
can not be mutually exclusive.

(c) If P(A B C) = P(A)P(B)P(C), then A, B and C are independent.

(d) If A B C = , then P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C).

Solution

(a) Given that A, B and C are independent. P(A B) = P(A)P(B).

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If A and B are mutually exclusive, then P(A B) = 0.
But P(A)P(B) 0 since P(A) > 0 and P(B) > 0.
Therefore, the statement is true.

(b) If A, B, C and D are independent, then (A B) and (C D) are independent.
P[(A B) (C D)] = P(A B) P(C D) > 0.
Therefore, the statement is true.

(c) For three events to be independent, there are four conditions to be met as follows:
P(A B C) = P(A)P(B)P(C), P(A B ) = P(A)P(B), P(A C) = P(A)P(C) and
P(B C) = P(B)P(C).
Therefore, the statement is false.

(d) P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A B) P(B C) P(A C) +
P(A B C). Here, P(A B C) = 0.
P(A B C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A B) P(B C) P(A C)
Therefore, the statement is false.

Bayes' Theorem

Bayes' rule expresses the conditional probability of the event A given the event B in terms of
the conditional probability of the event B given the event A:

|
|

The numerator on the right is computed using the multiplication rule.
|
The denominator is computed by partitioning B into the mutually exclusive sets and
, and finding the probability of each of those pieces using the multiplication rule.
|

|
|


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Suppose that the events,
where i = 1, 2, 3, , n partition the sample space , that is, they

have the following properties
Exhaustive: B
1
B
2
B
3
.. B
n
= S,
Pairwise disjoint events:
,
Non-zero probability,
0, 1, 2, 3, , , then the Bayes theorem states

that, for an event A,

An example to illustrate Bayes Theorem

Example 8
Suppose that 10% of a given population has benign chronic flatulence. Suppose that there is a
standard screening test for benign chronic flatulence that has a 90% chance of correctly
detecting that one has the disease, and a 10% chance of a "false positive" (erroneously
reporting that one has the disease when one does not).

We pick a person at random from the population (so that everyone has the same chance of
being picked) and test him/her. The test is positive. What is the chance that the person has the
disease?

Solution

We shall combine several things we have learned. Let D be the event that the person has the
disease, and T be the event that the person tests positive for the disease.
Given that:
10%, | 90%, |
10%
The problem asks us to find |.
We know that, |

.
We shall find by breaking T into two mutually exclusive pieces, and
,
corresponding to testing positive and having the disease and testing positive falsely
. Then P(T) is the sum of and
. We will find those two

probabilities using the multiplication rule. We have in the numerator, and it will be
one of the terms in the denominator as well.
By the multiplication rule,

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| 0.1 0.9 0.09
0.9 0.1 0.09

Therefore,

0.09 0.09 0.18

Finally, substituting in the definition of | gives
|

0.09
0.18
0.5
As only a small fraction of the population actually have benign chronic flatulence, the chance
that a positive test result for someone selected at random from the population is a false
positive is 50%, even though the test is 90% accurate.

The problem can also be solved by using a tree diagram as follows:

0.9 0.10
0.1 0.9 0.9 0.10
0.5

This problem illustrates Bayes Theorem.
For example, in the disease-screening problem just above, the natural way to calibrate a test
is to see how well it does at detecting a certain thing (e.g., a disease) when the thing is

0.1

0.9
|
0.9
|
0.1
|

0.10

0.90

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present, and to see how poorly it does at raising false alarms when the thing is not really
present. These are, respectively, the conditional probability of detecting the thing given that
the condition is present, and the conditional probability of incorrectly raising an alarm given
that the thing is not present.
Every year there has been a question on Bayes theorem and some true or false type
questions on statistical independence and conditional probability. In addition to these
questions, there are questions asked on Chapter 3, Bivariate Distributions, require a thorough
understanding of statistical independence and conditional probability.
Example 9

A die with six faces is thrown. If it shows 5 or 6 it is thrown again. It is thrown a maximum
of two times. What is the probability the final outcome is 4? Also, given that the final
outcome is 3, what is the probability the die was thrown twice?

Solution

P(final outcome is a 4) = P(first outcome is a 4) + P(first outcome is 5 or 6 and the second
outcome is a 4)
1
6
2
6

1
6

2
9

P(final outcome is a 3) = P(first outcome is a 3) + P(first outcome is 5 or 6 and the second
outcome is a 3)
1
6
2
6
1
6

1
6

1
18

2
9

P(the die was thrown twice | final outcome is a 3)

1 18
2 9

1
4

Practice Question 4
Three fair coins are tossed. If the outcome is not the same for all coins (that is if it is two
heads and a tail or two tails and a head) they are all tossed one more time. What is the
probability that the final outcome is three tails? Also, given that the final outcome is three
heads, what is the probability the coins had to be tossed twice?


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Example 10
A man has a choice of three kinds of toothpaste. If he uses toothpaste A, there is a probability
of 0.4 that he will develop a cavity in the next year. If he uses toothpaste B, the same
probability is 0.5. If he uses toothpaste C, it is 0.3. If he gets no cavities during a particular
year, he uses the same toothpaste the next year. Otherwise he chooses any of the other two
toothpastes with equal probability. During year 1 he used toothpaste A.
a) What is the probability that he used toothpaste A in year 3?
b) Given that he used toothpaste A in year 3, what is the probability he developed no
cavities in years 1, 2 and 3?

Solution

Let A, B and C be the events of the man getting cavity by using toothpaste A, B and C
respectively. Let AB be the event of the man changing from toothpaste A to B, and so on.

Given that,
0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.5

(a) Tree Diagram to find the probability that the man used toothpaste A in year 3

P(the man uses toothpaste A in year 3) = 0.36 + 0.05 + 0.03 = 0.44
P(A)=0.4
P(A
c
)=0.6
P(AA)=1
P(A
c
)=0.6
P(AC)=0.5
P(AB)=0.5
P(B)=0.5
P(B
c
)=0.5
P(C)=0.3
P(C
c
)=0.7
P(BC)=0.5
P(BA)=0.5
P(CB)=0.5
P(CA)=0.5
P(man uses toothpaste A in year 1, 2
and 3) = (0.6)
2
= 0.36
P(man uses toothpaste A in
year 1, B in year 2 and A in
year 3) = (0.4)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5)
= 0.05
P(man uses toothpaste A in
year 1, C in year 2 and A in
year 3) = (0.4)(0.5)(0.3)(0.5)
= 0.03

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(b) P(the man developed no cavities in years 1, 2 and 3 he used toothpaste A in year 3)
1,2,3 3
3

0.36
0.44
0.8182

Practice Question 5
Mr A and Ms B work together and have a choice of three restaurants for their daily lunch: a
steak house, an Italian and a Chinese. On any day, Ms B will go to the Chinese restaurant
with probability 0.4, the Italian with probability 0.5 and the steak house with probability 0.1.
If she goes to the Chinese restaurant, Mr A will follow her with probability 0.6. If she goes to
the Italian, he will follow with probability 0.8 and if she goes to the steak house, he will
follow with probability 0.9.
(a) They had lunch together yesterday. What is the probability they had lunch in the
Chinese restaurant?
(b) They had lunch together yesterday and the day before. What is the probability that it
was the same restaurant on both days?


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Revision Problems
1. A box has 3 red balls and 2 green balls. One ball is taken out of the box at random. If it is
red, then two red balls are put back in the box. If the green ball is taken out, then no ball
is put back in. Another ball is then taken at random from the box. What is the probability
that the first ball taken was red if the second ball taken is red?

2. If all elementary outcomes are equally likely, and = {a, b, c, d}, A = {a, b, c}, B = {c,
d}, find P(A|B) and P(B|A).

3. In a large sociology class, 10% of all students get an A grade in their end of year
examination. 40% of all students had missed no classes. The examiners checked and
found that the conditional probability of a student getting an A grade given that no classes
were missed is 10%.

a) What is the probability that a student with an A grade had missed no
classes?
b) What is the probability that a student who missed at least one class did not
get an A grade?
c) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes mutually exclusive?
d) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes independent? Explain.

4. In six independent tosses of a fair coin, what is the probability that there are at least three
successive heads somewhere in the sequence? (5/16)

5. If A and B are events such that P(A|B
c
) = 2P(A|B) and P(B
c
) = 2P(B), show that P(B
c
|A)
= 0.8.

6. Show that if P(A | B) = P(A | B
c
) then A and B are independent.

7. A box of 50 coloured light bulbs consists of 5 blue bulbs, 15 pink bulbs, 20yellow bulbs
and 10 white bulbs. If 4 bulbs are selected at random without replacement, what is the
probability that:
(a) all 4 bulbs are white
(b) all 4 bulbs are the same colour
(c) all four bulbs are different colours
(d) no bulb is yellow?


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8. Annabel is twice as likely to go shopping as Barbara. Carmel is three times as likely to go
shopping when Annabel meets her than she is when Barbara meets her. How much more
likely is Annabel to shop than Barbara when each has been met by Carmel?

9. Mathematicians A, B and C are discussing the proof of a new theorem by one of their
colleagues. A will say the proof is false if and only if either B or C say they have found a
mistake in the proof. Neither of B, C had time to read the proof, but B will randomly with
50% probability say that he has found a mistake. C will wait to hear what B says, but if B
does not say he has a mistake then, C will randomly with a 10% probability say that he
has found a mistake in the proof. What is the probability that B said he found a mistake if
A says the proof is false.

10. There are six tickets, three of which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and the other three are labelled
0. If three tickets are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of
drawing a total of three for the labels?

11. First year students in Statistics take a test of mathematical aptitude. Students taking the
test are either well-prepared or less well-prepared. Of the well-prepared 95% will pass the
test, whereas of the less well-prepared only 10% will pass. The pass rate for the test is
75%. What is the proportion of students who are well-prepared? Given that a student has
passed the test, what is the probability that the student is not well-prepared?

12. If the odds on every game between two players are two to one in favour of the winner of
the preceding game, what is the chance that he who wins the first game shall win at least
two of the next three?

13. Three boxes each contain five balls. Box one contains one white and four black balls, box
two contains two white and three black balls and box three contains three white and two
black balls. A box is selected at random and a ball is selected at random from the chosen
box.

a) What is the probability that the ball chosen is white?
b) If the ball chosen were white, what would be the probability that the ball came from
box 1? From box 2? From box 3?

One of the two remaining boxes is chosen at random. The ball selected at the first stage is
placed in the chosen box and another ball is chosen at random from that box.

c) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what are the probabilities
that the box selected at the second stage is Box 1? Box 2? Box 3?
d) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what is the probability that
the ball selected at the second drawing is also white?


S. Kumar

23
14. A university department has 7 academic staff. There are 4 mathematicians and 3
statisticians. At the end of the year, one of the academic staff is given a prize as the best
researcher of the year. This selection is made at random among the seven staff. If the
winner is a mathematician, then an additional mathematician is hired. If a statistician
wins, then he/she leaves the department for a better post and is not replaced. At the end of
the second year, another winner is randomly selected.

What is the probability that a mathematician won in year 1, given that a mathematician
won in year 2?

15. Show that if A B C D then P(A B C D) = P(AB) P(BC) P(CD) P(D)


S. Kumar

24
Solutions to Revision Problems

1. A box has 3 red balls and 2 green balls. One ball is taken out of the box at random. If it is
red, then two red balls are put back in the box. If the green ball is taken out, then no ball
is put back in. Another ball is then taken at random from the box. What is the probability
that the first ball taken was red if the second ball taken is red?

Solution
|

=

3
5
4
6
3
5
4
6

2
5
3
4

2
5
2
5
3
10

4
7

2. If all elementary outcomes are equally likely, and = {a, b, c, d}, A = {a, b, c}, B = {c,
d}, find P(A|B) and P(B|A).

Solution

3
4
,

2
4
,

1
4

|

1
4
2
4

1
2

|

1
4
3
4

1
3

3. In a large sociology class, 10% of all students get an A grade in their end of year examination.
40% of all students had missed no classes. The examiners checked and found that the conditional
probability of a student getting an A grade given that no classes were missed is 10%.
e) What is the probability that a student with an A grade had missed no classes?
f) What is the probability that a student who missed at least one class did not get an A grade?
g) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes mutually exclusive?
h) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes independent? Explain.


S. Kumar

25
Solution

Let A be the event of student getting A grade and M be the event of student missing
classes.
Given that, P(A) = 0.1; P(A
c
) = 0.9
P(M
c
) = 0.4; P(M) = 0.6 and
P(AM
c
) = 0.1; P(A
c
M
c
) = 0.9

The given information can be tabulated as shown:

a) The probability that a student with an A grade had missed no classes

0.04
0.1
0.4
b) What is the probability that a student who missed at least one class did not get an A
grade?

0.54
0.6
0.9
c) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes mutually exclusive?
0.04 0.
Therefore M
c
and A are not mutually exclusive.
d) Are the events `got an A grade and `missed no classes independent? Explain.

0.04
0.4 0.1 0.04

and are independent.

4. In six independent tosses of a fair coin, what is the probability that there are at least three
successive heads somewhere in the sequence?

Solution

We first find the total number of cases favourable to the event of getting at least 3
successive heads.

Three successive heads:
(HHHTTT),(HHHTTH),(HHHTHT),(HHHTHH),(THHHTH),(THHHTT),
(TTHHHT),(HTHHHT),(TTTHHH),(HTTHHH),(THTHHH),(HHTHHH)
A A
c

M 0.06 0.54 0.6
M
c
0.04 0.36 0.4
0.1 0.9 1


S. Kumar

26
Four successive heads:
(HHHHTT),(HHHHTH),(TTHHHH),(HTHHHH),(THHHHT)

Five successive heads: (HHHHHT),(THHHHH)

Six successive heads: (HHHHHH)

The total number of favourable cases = (12 + 5 + 2 + 1) = 20.
Therefore the probability of getting at least successive heads = 20/2
6
= 20/64 = 5/16
5. If A and B are events such that P(A|B
c
) = 2P(A|B) and P(B
c
) = 2P(B),
show that P(B
c
|A) = 0:8. (The event B
c
is the complement of event B.)
Solution

Given that
|
2|

2, ,
2 2
4
5
5

5
5

4
5
0.8

6. Show that if P(A | B) = P(A | B
c
) then A and B are independent.

Solution

Given that | |


S. Kumar

27

1

Therefore, A and B are independent.

7. A box of 50 coloured light bulbs consists of 5 blue bulbs, 15 pink bulbs, 20yellow bulbs
and 10 white bulbs. If 4 bulbs are selected at random without replacement, what is the
probability that:
(a) all 4 bulbs are white
(b) all 4 bulbs are the same colour
(c) all four bulbs are different colours
(d) no bulb is yellow?

Solution

The total number of ways of selecting 4 coloured bulbs from a box of 50 bulbs =
.

4

0.0009118

6425
230300
0.0279

15000
230300
0.0651

27405
230300
0.119

8. Annabel is twice as likely to go shopping as Barbara. Carmel is three times as likely to go
shopping when Annabel meets her than she is when Barbara meets her. How much more
likely is Annabel to shop than Barbara when each has been met by Carmel?

Solution

Let A, B and C be the event of Annabel, Barbara and Carmel going for shopping
respectively.
Given that, 2 | 3|.

S. Kumar

28
To find x that satisfies | |.

| 3|

3
6
6
dividing both sides by

| 6|

9. Mathematicians A, B and C are discussing the proof of a new theorem by one of their
colleagues. A will say the proof is false if and only if either B or C say they have found a
mistake in the proof. Neither of B, C had time to read the proof, but B will randomly with
50% probability say that he has found a mistake. C will wait to hear what B says, but if B
does not say he has found a mistake then, C will randomly with a 10% probability say
that he has found a mistake in the proof. What is the probability that B said he found a
mistake if A says the proof is false.

Solution

Given that A will say the proof is false if and only if either B or C say they have found a
mistake in the proof. Let A
B
be the event of A saying the proof is wrong as B says he has
found a mistake. Let A
C
be the event of A saying the proof is wrong as C says he has found a
mistake. Let B and C be the events of B and C saying that they have found a mistake
respectively.

Given that P(B) = 0.50. If B says that he has found a mistake, A says the proof is wrong.
Therefore, P(A
B
) = 0.50.

Given that if B does not say he has found a mistake then, C will randomly with a 10%
probability say that he has found a mistake in the proof.
Therefore P(C) = P(B
c
) times 0.10 = (0.5)(0.1) = 0.05. Therefore P(A
C
) = 0.05.
If A is the event of A saying that the proof is wrong, then,
P(A) = P(A
B
) + P(A
C
) = 0.5 + 0.05 = 0.55
To find P(BA):
P(BA) = P(AB)/P(A) = 0.5/0.55 = 0.9091


S. Kumar

29
10. There are six tickets, three of which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and the other three are labelled
0. If three tickets are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of
drawing a total of three for the labels?

Solution

The possible outcomes with the total of 6 are:
012, 021, 102, 120, 201, 210, 003, 030, 300

P(selecting 0, 1, 2) =

There are 3! = 6 possible ways of rearranging these three numbers.
Therefore, P( getting a total of 6 with numbers 0, 1 and 2) =

P(selecting 0, 0, 3) =

There are 3 possible ways of rearranging these three numbers.
Therefore, P( getting a total of 6 with numbers 0, 0 and 3) =

Therefore, the required probability is
0.3

11. First year students in Statistics take a test of mathematical aptitude. Students taking the
test are either well-prepared or less well-prepared. Of the well-prepared 95% will pass the
test, whereas of the less well-prepared only 10% will pass. The pass rate for the test is
75%. What is the proportion of students who are well-prepared? Given that a student has
passed the test, what is the probability that the student is not well-prepared?

Solution

Let p be the proportion of the students well-prepared.

Then, p(0.95) + (1 p)(0.1) = 0.75
Therefore p = 0.65/0.85 = 0.7647.

Let A be the event of the student not well-prepared and B be the event of student passing the
test. Then, P(A|B) = P(AB)/P(B) = [(1-0.7647)(0.1)]/0.75 = 0.0314.

12. If the odds on every game between two players are two to one in favour of the winner of
the preceding game, what is the chance that he who wins the first game shall win at least
two of the next three?


S. Kumar

30
Solution

Let W and L be the events of winning and losing the game for the one who won the
preceding game. The probability that the winner of the preceding game wins the game again
is 2/3.

The probability that he who wins the first game shall win at least two of the next three is
P(WWW) + P(WWL) + P(WLW) + P(LWW) =

2
3

2
3
2
3

2
3

2
3
1
3

2
3

1
3

1
3

1
3

1
3

2
3

16
27

13. Three boxes each contain five balls. Box one contains one white and four black balls, box
two contains two white and three black balls and box three contains three white and two
black balls. A box is selected at random and a ball is selected at random from the chosen
box.
a) What is the probability that the ball chosen is white?
b) If the ball chosen were white, what would be the probability that the ball came from box
1? From box 2? From box 3?

One of the two remaining boxes is chosen at random. The ball selected at the first stage is
placed in the chosen box and another ball is chosen at random from that box.

c) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what are the probabilities that
the box selected at the second stage is Box 1? Box 2? Box 3?
d) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what is the probability that the
ball selected at the second drawing is also white?

Solution

Let B1, B2 and B3 be the events of selecting box 1, 2 and 3 respectively.

Let W and B be the events of selecting a white ball and a black call respectively.

(a) What is the probability that the ball chosen is white?

P(W) = P(B1 W) + P(B2 W) + P(B3 W)

1
3

1
5

1
3
2
5

1
3

3
5

1
15

2
15

3
15

6
15

2
5


S. Kumar

31

(b) If the ball chosen were white, what would be the probability that the ball came from
box 1? From box 2? From box 3?

1|
1

1
15
2
5

1
6

2|
2

2
15
2
5

2
6

3|
3

3
15
2
5

3
6

(c) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what are the probabilities
that the box selected at the second stage is Box 1? Box 2? Box 3?

Let O1, O2 and O3 be the events of selecting box 1, 2 and 3 respectively at the second stage.

1|
1

2 1 3 1
1
3

2
5
1
2
1
3

3
5
1
2
2
5

1
6

5
2

5
12

2|
2

1 2 3 2

1
3

1
5

1
2
1
3

3
5

1
2
2
5

2
15

5
2

1
3

3|
3

1 3 2 3


S. Kumar

32
1
3

1
5
1
2
1
3

2
5
1
2
2
5

1
10

5
2

1
4

(d) Given that the ball selected at the first drawing was white, what is the probability that
the ball selected at the second drawing is also white?

2

2|
2

2
5

2
2 1 2 2 2 3

2 1

2 2

2 3

2
1
18

1
15

1
15

17
90

2|
2

17
90
2
5

17
36

14. A university department has 7 academic staff. There are 4 mathematicians and 3
statisticians. At the end of the year, one of the academic staff is given a prize as the best
researcher of the year. This selection is made at random among the seven staff. If the
winner is a mathematician, then an additional mathematician is hired. If a statistician
wins, then he/she leaves the department for a better post and is not replaced. At the end of
the second year, another winner is randomly selected. What is the probability that a
mathematician won in year 1, given that a mathematician won in year 2?

S. Kumar

33
Solution

P(a mathematician won in yr 1| a mathematician won in yr 2) =
1 2
2

, 2
1 2
1 2

4
7

5
8

3
7
4
6

P(a mathematician won in yr 1| a mathematician won in yr 2) =
4
7

5
8
4
7

5
8

3
7

4
6
0.5556

15. Show that if A B C D then
P(A B C D) = P(AB) P(BC) P(CD) P(D)

Solution

LHS = P(A B C D) = P(A) since A B C D

RHS = P(AB) P(BC) P(CD) P(D)

||

|| SInce
|

| SInce

SInce
= LHS

CH 1. Probability

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Statistics 2 - Chapter 1 Probability -

. But, given that B has occurred, we dont look

, where as if the first

(using De Morgans law)

are independent if the product rule

holds and if every subset of k

where i = 1, 2, 3, , n partition the sample space , that is, they

0, 1, 2, 3, , , then the Bayes theorem states

. Then P(T) is the sum of and

. We will find those two

0.9 0.1 0.09

0.09 0.09 0.18

0.4 0.1 0.04

and are independent.

dividing both sides by

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