CEE 202.

Engineering Risk and Uncertainty

Professor Praveen Kumar Fall Semester 2012
2527b Hydrosystems Lab Lecture Hours: Tu/Th 8:00 - 9:20 AM
Ph# 333-4688 Location: 1310 NCEL
kumar1@illinois.edu Office Hours: Tu/Th 11:00am noon
or by appointment
Teaching Assistants:
Maryam Eidini [eidinin1@illinois.edu] Office Hours: M/Tu/W/Th/F 1-2pm
Room 1311 Newmark
Xinyu (Emily) Zhang [xyzuiuc@gmail.com] Office Hours: M/Tu/W/Th/F 4-5pm
Room B218 Newmark
Debsunder Dutta [ddutta3@illinois.edu]
Phong Le [phongle1@illinois.edu]

Optional Help Session: Monday & Wednesday 5-6:30pm, Room 1311 Newmark

Course Description: Identification and modeling of non-deterministic problems in civil engineering, and the treatment
thereof relative to engineering design and decision making. Development of stochastic concepts and
simulation models, and their relevance to real design and decision problems in various areas of civil
engineering.
Syllabus:
1) Probability 3 lectures
2) Random Variables and Probability Distributions 2 lectures
3) Mathematical Expectations 2 lectures
4) Discrete probability Distributions 2 lectures
5) Continuous Probability Distributions 4 lectures
6) Sampling Distributions 4 lectures
7) Sample Estimation Problems 3 lectures
8) Regression and Correlation 2 lectures
9) Test of Hypotheses 2 lectures

Text: Walpole, Myers, Myers, and YE: Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists (9
th
Ed.)
Myers: Students Solution Manual for Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists

References: Ang and Tang: Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design

Evaluation:

Pre-lecture Checkpoint ................................................... 10%
Assignment ............................................................ 20%
Mini-projects ............................................................ 10%
Mid-term exams (best two out of three) .......................... 40%
Final exam ............................................................ 20%

Policy:
1. All assignments will be due through electronic submission before the class on the due date. No late
submissions will be accepted.
2. Students are responsible for all reading assignments.
Webpage:
We will use Compass-2G for web postings and informal discussions. https://compass2g.illinois.edu/
Tentative Course Schedule
Lec #. Date Day Topic Ref. in text Comments

1 28-Aug-12 Tuesday Introduction to the course,
sample space, events, counting
Sec. 2.1, 2.2, 2.3
2 30-Aug-12 Thursday Prob., additive rules, cond.
prob.
Sec. 2.4, 2.5, 2.6
3 4-Sep-12 Tuesday Multiplicative rules, Baye's rule Sec. 2.7, 2.8
4 6-Sep-12 Thursday RV's, discrete and continuous
prob.
Sec. 3.1, 3.2, 3.3
5 11-Sep-12 Tuesday Continuous and joint prob. Sec. 3.3, 3.4 Assignment # 1
due
6 13-Sep-12 Thursday Mean, variance, covariance Sec. 4.1, 4.2
7 18-Sep-12 Tuesday Covariance, linear combination
of RV's
Sec. 4.2, 4.3 Assignment # 2
due
8 20-Sep-12 Thursday Uniform, binomial, multinomial,
Hypergeom distributions
Sec. 5.1, 5.2, 5.3, 5.4
9 25-Sep-12 Tuesday Negative binomial, geometric,
Poisson distri.
Sec. 5.4, 5.5, 5.6 Assignment # 3
due
10 27-Sep-12 Thursday Uniform and normal distribution,
normal curve
Sec. 6.1, 6.2, 6.2
11 2-Oct-12 Tuesday Problem session on Chapter 2,
3, 4 and 5
Assignment # 4
due
12 4-Oct-12 Thursday Mid Sem Exam 1
13 9-Oct-12 Tuesday Applications, and normal
approx. to binomial
Sec. 6.4, 6.5
14 11-Oct-12 Thursday Gamma, exponential
distribution, Chi-squared
Sec. 6.6, 6.7, 6.8
15 16-Oct-12 Tuesday Lognormal, Weibull distribution,
Fitting
Sec. 6.9, 6.10, 10.14 Assignment # 5
due
16 18-Oct-12 Thursday Fitting a distribution, sampling
statistics
Sec. 10.14, 8.1, 8.2
17 23-Oct-12 Tuesday Sampling statistics and
distributions, problems
Sec. 8.2, 8.4 Assignment # 6
due
18 25-Oct-12 Thursday Sampling distr. of mean and
variance, t- distrib.
Sec. 8.5, 8.6, 8.7
19 30-Oct-12 Tuesday F-distribution, graphical
methods
Sec. 8.8, 8.3 Assignment # 7
due
20 1-Nov-12 Thursday Methods of estimation,
estimation of mean
Sec. 9.1, 9.2, 9.3, 9.4
21 6-Nov-12 Tuesday Problems session Chapter 6,
10 & 8
Assignment # 8
due
22 8-Nov-12 Thursday Mid Sem Exam#2
23 13-Nov-12 Tuesday Error of estimate, two sample
estimates
Sec. 9.5 to 9.8
24 15-Nov-12 Thursday Estimating proportion, Max
likelihood estimation
Sec 9.10, 9.14
25 27-Nov-12 Tuesday Regression and least squares Sec. 11.1 to 11.3 Assignment # 9
due
26 29-Nov-12 Thursday Regression coefficients Sec. 11.4 to 11.7
27 4-Dec-12 Tuesday Hypothesis testing, p-value Sec 10.1 to 10.4 Assignment # 10
due
28 6-Dec-12 Thursday Conf. intervals, Testing on
means and proportion
Sec. 10.5 to 10.14
29 11-Dec-12 Tuesday Assignment # 11
due (10 Dec); Mid
Sem Exam # 3
19-Dec-12 Thursday Final Exam 8:00AM-11AM

MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN

8:30AM Lecture (8-
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9:20AM)

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11:00AM PK Office
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PK Office
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