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4.1 - Introduction
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics is the branch of economics that studies the overall workings of an economy, such as total
income and output; aspects of the economy are viewed in aggregate. For instance, when referring to labor in
macroeconomics, the focus is on all workers within an economy, not the choices of an individual worker.
BASICS
Introduction
The information presented within Section A: Basics, is preliminary material and will not be tested directly on
your upcoming exam. However, we recommend reviewing this material as you will need to know it in order to
understand the more advanced topics discussed later.
Gross domestic product is defined as the value of all goods and services produced within a nation during a
particular period of time (typically a year). Market prices are used to determine value and only "final" goods
and services (those consumed by the end user) are included.
Gross National Productmeasures the income of all of a nation's citizens, even if that income was earned
abroad. Amounts that foreigners earn within the nation's boundaries are not included.
Expenditure Approach
The expenditure approach utilizes four main components:
Consumption (C) – These are personal consumption expenditures. They are typically broken down into the
following categories: durable goods, non-durable goods, and services.
Investment (I) - This is gross private investment; it is generally broken down into fixed investment and
changes in business inventories.
Government (G) – This category includes government spending on items that are "consumed" in the current
period, such as office supplies and gasoline; and also capital goods, such as highways, missiles, and dams. Note
that transfer payments are not included in GDP, as they are not part of current production.
Net Exports - This is calculated by subtracting a nations imports (M)from exports (X). Imports are goods and
services produced outside the country and consumed within, and exports are goods and services produced
domestically and sold to foreigners. Note that this number may be negative, which has occurred in the U.S. for
the last several years. Net exports for the U.S. were minus $606 billion during calendar year 2004 (as per
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce June 29, 2005 press release).
Formula 4.1
GDP = C + I + G + (X – M)
Remaining revenues go to business owners as a residual cash flow, which is used to replenish capital
(depreciation), or it becomes a business profit. So with the resource cost/income approach, GDP (or GDI) is
calculated as wages, rent, interest and cash flow paid to business owners or organizers of production.
So GDP by resource cost/income approach = wages + self-employment income + Rent + Interest + profits +
indirect business taxes + depreciation + net income of foreigners.
Formula 4.2
GDI = wages + self-employment income + Rent + Interest + profits
+ indirect business taxes + depreciation + net income of foreigners
The above formula is probably hard to memorize, so at least try to remember this relationship
- GDI = wages + rent + interest + business cash flow
Total GDP figures should be the same by either method of calculation. But in real life, things don't always work
out this way. Official figures usually have a category called "statistical discrepancy", which is needed to balance
out the two approaches.
If we wish to analyze the impact of price changes throughout an economy, then the GDP deflator is the
preferred price index. This is because it does not focus on a fixed basket of goods and services and
automatically reflects changes in consumption patterns and/or the introduction of new goods and services.
Real GDP for a given year, in relation to a "base" year, is computed by multiplying the nominal GDP for a
given year by the ratio of the GDP price deflator in the base year to the GDP price deflator for the given year.
Example:
Suppose we wish to calculate the real GDP for the year 2001 in terms of 1996 dollars. The value for (note that
these values are for illustration purposes only) 1996 price deflator is 100 and the 2001 price deflator is 115. The
2001 GDP in nominal terms is $10 trillion dollars.
Then: Real GDP year 2001 in 1996 dollars =$10 trillion × (100 / 115) = $8.6 trillion
·Changes in quality and the inclusion of new goods – higher quality and/or new products often replace older
products. Many products, such as cars and medical devices, are of higher quality and offer better features than
what was available previously. Many consumer electronics, such as cell phones and DVD players, did not exist
until recently.
·Leisure/human costs – GDP does not take into account
leisure time, nor is consideration given to how hard
people work to produce output. Also, jobs are now safer
and less physically strenuous than they were in the past.
Because GDP does not take these factors into account,
changes in real income could be understated.
·Harmful Side Effects - Economic "bads", such as pollution, are not included in GDP statistics. While no
subtractions to GDP are made for their harmful effects, market transactions made in an effort to correct the bad
effects are added to GDP.
·Non-Market Production - Goods and services produced but not exchanged for money, known as "nonmarket
production", are not measured, even though they have value. For instance, if you grow your own food, the value
of that food will not be included in GDP. If you decide to watch TV instead of growing your own food and now
have to purchase it, then the value of your food will be included in GDP.
National Income
National income is computed by subtracting indirect business taxes, the net income of foreigners, and
depreciation from GDP. It represents the income earned by a country's citizens. National income can also be
computed by summing interest, rents, employee compensation (wages and benefits), proprietors' income and
corporate profits.
·Personal income represents income available for personal use. It is computed by making various adjustments to
national income. Social insurance taxes and corporate profits are subtracted from national income, while net
interest, corporate dividends and transfer payments are added.
·Disposable personal income (or disposable income) is income available to people after taxes; i.e., it is personal
income less individual taxes.
Marginal Product
The marginal product is the change in output that occurs when one more unit of input (such as a unit of labor) is
added.
Marginal Revenue
Marginal revenue is the increase in total revenue that occurs with the production of one more unit of output.
A firm seeking to maximize profit will increase employment of a variable input unit until the MRP of that input
is just equal to what it pays for the input. This rule will be followed by price takers and price searchers.
As the price of an input goes up, fewer units of that resource will generate the MRP needed to entice the firm to
employ that resource. The demand curve for a resource will be downward sloping, as shown in figure 4.1
below:
Values for the demand curve will depend upon the price of the good being produced, the productivity of the
resource in question, and the amount of other resources used by the firm.
A profit-maximizing firm will continue to employ units of a resource as long as the MRP associated with the
unit exceeds the firm's cost. If we assume the units of each resource are perfectly divisible, then the following
conditions will apply to a firm with 3 production inputs (A, B, and C).
MRPa=Pa
MRPb =Pb
MRPc= Pc
Pa is equal to the price (or wage rate) of resource A, Pb is equal to the price (or wage rate) of resource B, and Pc
is equal to the price (or wage rate) of resource C.
Suppose resource A represents highly skilled labor and resource B represents labor with low skills. If a firm can
get 100 units of additional output by purchasing $500 worth of highly skilled labor and only 50 additional units
of output by hiring $500 worth of labor with low skills, then per unit costs will be reduced by hiring the highly-
skilled labor. Expenses can always be reduced by substituting resources with relatively high marginal product
per dollar spent for resources that have a relatively low marginal product per dollar. This substitution will
continue to occur if per unit costs are to be minimized until the following relationship is achieved:
Note that this relationship also implies that if skilled laborers are three times as productive as unskilled labor,
then firms will be willing to pay skilled laborers three times as much as unskilled labor.
Financial capital includes the resources used to purchase those physical objects; those resources come from
savings. Interest represents the price of capital; the actual market interest rate will be the rate at which the
supply of capital is equal to the quantity of capital demanded.
Comparing the Future Marginal Revenue Product of Capital with Future Capital Prices
A firm needs to examine the future marginal revenue product of capital when making a decision to employ
more capital. The firm converts the value of those future income streams to a value in the present. Present value
is the current worth of a future income stream, discounted to reflect the fact that a dollar in the future is worth
less than a dollar today. The general form of the present value calculation is:
Formula 4.2
Note that if future value stays the same, and interest rates
decrease, future value increases. As interest rates decline,
more investments of capital become profitable to the firm,
and the quantity of capital demanded will increase.
The equilibrium interest rate will tend to fluctuate over time. Population changes, technological changes, and
expectations are some of the factors that will influence the demand and/or supply for capital.
The basic principle regarding the equilibrium for non-renewable natural resources is that the price of the
resource today should be equal to the present value of the next period's expected price for the same resource.
Essentially, the prices for a non-renewable resource are expected to increase at a rate equal to the interest rate.
Suppose an oil producer expects prices for oil to be lower in the future. A profit-maximizing oil producer would
try to sell as much oil in the present, and then invest the proceeds. If the price of oil is expected to increase at a
rate greater than the interest rate, then the oil producer should let as much oil as possible stay in the ground.
Keep in mind that prices for non-renewable resources do not exactly follow this pattern because the future is
always uncertain. Technological changes and political uncertainties are some of the many factors that make
forecasting price changes difficult.
Let's suppose the factor of production is labor. In this example, the laborer receives $20/per hour for their job,
and the minimum salary they'd be willing to work for (opportunity cost) is $16/per hour. This $4/hour
difference is the laborer's economic rent. In the case of the superstar baseball pitcher, most of the salary earned
may be economic rent. Most of a wages of a dishwasher is opportunity cost, since these types of jobs pay
minimum wage.If the factor of production is a plot of land, the supply curve would be perfectly vertical, since
there is no way for the landowner to supply additional land. In this case, all money received is economic rent.
The size of economic rent received by a owner of a factor of production is determined by the elasticity of supply
for that particular good or service.
• If the elasticity of supply is neither elastic nor inelastic, the supply curve will slope upward and the
supplier's income would be split between economic rent and opportunity cost.
• If the elasticity of supply is inelastic, the supply curve would be perfectly vertical and the supplier's
entire income would be comprised of economic rent. For example, if the supply were a particular plot of
land, or a
• If the elasticity of supply is elastic, the supply curve would be perfectly horizontal, and the supplier's
entire income would be comprised of opportunity cost.
Look Out!
Figure 4.2
A business peak, or boom, occurs when unemployment is low, incomes are high and businesses are operating at
full capacity. When aggregate economic conditions began to slow, the business cycle is said to be in a
contraction, or recessionary phase. Sales begin to fall, and unemployment starts to rise. The low point of the
contraction phase is called the recessionary trough. The business cycle begins the expansionary phase after the
low point is reached and business conditions began to improve. Business sales improve, and the
unemployment rate begins to decline. Another boom will follow, and the cycle will begin anew.
Conditions during the low point are referred to as a recession. Many economists define a recession as being a
decline in Gross Domestic Product over two or more quarters. Severe recessions (both in length of time and
severity of the contraction) are referred to as depressions.
Generally unemployment is higher during a recession. Employment usually does not pick up until after the
economy is coming out of a recession; it is usually regarded as a "lagging indicator" for the health of the
economy.
The number of aggregate hours worked should increase with GDP. Data pertaining to aggregate hours in the
United States is maintained by the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Changes in real wage rates can be calculate by dividing nominal wages by the GDP deflator. Data for real
wages in the United States is also maintained by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The natural rate of unemployment is that amount of unemployment that occurs naturally due to imperfect
information and job shopping. It is the rate of unemployment that is expected when an economy is operating at
full capacity. At this time in the U.S., the natural rate of unemployment is considered to be about 5%.
Look Out!
Example:
The inflation rate is computed by subtracting the CPI of last year's prices from the CPI value for this year,
dividing that difference by last year's CPI value and then multiplying by 100.
So if the value of the price index for the current year is equal to 165, and last year's value was 150, the rate
would be calculated as:
·Quality adjustments – quality of many goods (e.g., cars, computers, and televisions) goes up every
year. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics is now making adjustments for quality improvements, some price
increases may reflect quality adjustments that are still counted entirely as inflation.
·New goods – new goods may be introduced that will be hard to compare to older substitutes.
·Substitution – if the price goes up for one good, consumers may substitute another good that provides similar
utility. A common example is beef vs. pork. If the price goes up, and the price of pork stays the same,
consumers might easily switch to pork. Although the CPI will go higher due to the price increase in beef, many
consumers may not be worse off. Also, when prices go up, consumers may effectively not pay the higher
prices by switching to discount stores. The CPI surveys do not check to see if consumers are substituting
discount or outlet stores.
Some changes can alter short-run aggregate supply (SAS), while long-run aggregate supply (LAS) remains the
same. Examples include:
• Supply Shocks - Supply shocks are sudden surprise events that increase or decrease output on a
temporary basis. Examples include unusually bad or good weather or the impact from surprise military
actions.
• Resource Price Changes - These, too, can alter SAS. Unless the price changes reflect differences in
long-term supply, the LAS is not affected.
• Changes in Expectations for Inflation - If suppliers expect goods to sell at much higher prices in the
future, their willingness to sell in the current time period will be reduced and the SAS will shift to the
left.
The Aggregate Demand Curve
The aggregate demand curve shows, at various price levels, the quantity of goods and services produced
domestically that consumers, businesses, governments and foreigners (net exports) are willing to purchase
during the period of concern. The curve slopes downward to the right, indicating that as price levels decrease
(increase), more (less) goods and services are demanded.
• Real Interest Rate Changes – Such changes will impact capital goods decisions made by individual
consumers and by businesses. Lower real interest rates will lower the costs of major products such as
cars, large appliances and houses; they will increase business capital project spending because long-term
costs of investment projects are reduced. The aggregate demand curve will shift down and to the
right. Higher real interest rates will make capital goods relatively more expensive and cause the
aggregate demand curve to shift up and to the left.
• Changes in Expectations – If businesses and households are more optimistic about the future of the
economy, they are more likely to buy large items and make new investments; this will increase
aggregate demand.
• The Wealth Effect – If real household wealth increases (decreases), then aggregate demand will
increase (decrease)
• Changes in Income of Foreigners – If the income of foreigners increases (decreases), then aggregate
demand for domestically-produced goods and services should increase (decrease).
• Changes in Currency Exchange Rates – From the viewpoint of the U.S., if the value of the U.S. dollar
falls (rises), foreign goods will become more (less) expensive, while goods produced in the U.S. will
become cheaper (more expensive) to foreigners. The net result will be an increase (decrease) in
aggregate demand.
• Inflation Expectation Changes – If consumers expect inflation to go up in the future, they will tend to
buy now causing aggregate demand to increase. If consumers' expectations shift so that they expect
prices to decline in the future, t aggregate demand will decline and the aggregate demand curve will shift
up and to the left.
In the short-run, an unanticipated decrease in SAS will lower the availability of resources. This will lead to an
increase in resource prices, which will in turn cause the aggregate supply curve of goods and services to shift up
and to the left. A reduced level of output will be produced at higher prices. If the cause of the unanticipated
decrease in SAS is temporary, then there should be no changes in prices or output over the long-run. If the cause
is more important, then the long-run supply curve will shift to the left. The economy would produce a lower
level output at higher prices.
An unanticipated increase in aggregate supply will, in the short-run, lead to a shift to the right in SAS. Output
and income will expand beyond what is consistent with full employment at a lower price level. If what
produced the increase in aggregate supply is only temporary, the SAS curve will return to normal levels and
prices and output will be as before. If what produced the change is permanent, then both SAS and LAS will
shift to the right. There will be a greater amount of output, at lower prices.
Self-Correcting Mechanisms
Three aspects of a market economy that help to stabilize the economy and lessen the impact of economic shocks
include:
1.Changes in Resource Prices - If the economy is operating at less than full employment, there will be
downward pressure on prices for labor and other resources. That effect will stimulate short-run aggregate
supply. If the economy is operating above full employment, prices for labor and other resources will get bid up,
and short-run aggregate supply will be reduced.
2. Change in Real Interest Rates - During recessions, business demand for capital funding declines, causing a
lowering of real interest rates. The lower interest rates in turn stimulate consumers to buy large items and cost
of business investment projects are reduced, which stimulates business investment spending. Economic booms
lead to higher interest rates, thereby lowering demand for consumer durable goods and funding for business
investment projects. Therefore, interest rate movements work to stabilize aggregate demand.
3.Relative Stability of Consumption - The permanent income hypotheses states that household consumption is
mainly a function of expected long-range (permanent) income. Since long-run income has more of an impact on
spending than temporary changes in current income, consumption spending stays relatively the same across
business cycles. During economic boom times, consumers will increase their savings; during a recession,
temporary declines in income will induce households to draw on their savings so as to maintain a level of
consumption in line with their expected long-run incomes.
• Consumption - Keynes believed that consumption expenditures are mainly influenced by the level of
income. As income increases, consumption will increase but not by as much as the increase in
income. The relation between consumption and income is known as the consumption function.
• Investment - This category includes spending on fixed assets such as machinery, and changes in
inventories of raw materials and final goods. Keynes believed that in the short run, investment spending
is not a function of income.
• Government - As with investment, planned government expenditures are not a function of income.
• Net Exports - Exports remain constant and imports increase as aggregate income rises, so net exports
(exports minus imports) will tend to go down as aggregate income goes up.
Formula 4.3
Aggregate Demand = C + I + G + (X – M)
In the Keynesian model, equilibrium is achieved when the value of current production equals planned aggregate
expenditures. At that point, there is no incentive for firms to alter their production plans. If expenditures exceed
the value of output, business inventories will be drawn down. Firms will need to expand production in order to
replenish inventories and meet the higher level of demand. If demand exceeds production, business inventories
will rise and production will be cut back until inventories are at normal levels.
Note that equilibrium can occur at levels of output which are below the level of output consistent with full
employment.
In the graph above, AE0 represents aggregate expenditures that would occur at different price levels. The 45
degree line, AE=GDP, represents the points where equilibrium occurs. Equilibrium occurs at point (P0,Q0),
where output is less than can be achieved at QF, the output associated with full employment.
Ideally, planned aggregate expenditures will shift to a line such as AE1. At that point, full employment is
achieved.
From a Keynesian view, market economies are viewed as being inherently unstable: they are prone to booms
and busts. Changes in demand, magnified by multiplier effects, tend to cause wild swings in the
economy. Fluctuations in private business investment are the largest cause of the economy swinging to different
levels of output.
Monetarists believe that fluctuations in the money supply are the chief source of fluctuations in real economic
output and that the major cause of inflation is
excessive growth in the money supply.
• Money is a way to store value. Although many things (land, gold, etc.) can serve as a store of value,
money has one large advantage in the sense that it can quickly be converted into other goods. One
problem with using money as a way to store value is that some forms of money do not pay
interest. Another problem is that inflation destroys the value of money over time.
• Money is also used as a unit of account. The values and costs of goods, services, and assets can be
expressed as a unit of money. Prices expressed as money are used to help consumers make choices
among numerous goods and services.
M2 includes:
• all components of M1
• money market mutual funds
• deposits in savings accounts
• time deposit of less than 100K at depository institutions (banks, credit unions, savings and loans)
Look Out!
1.Commercial banks
Their main economic functions include providing liquidity, lowering the cost of borrowing money, and pooling
the risk associated with lending money.
All of these institutions make money by charging more for loans than what they pay for deposits, and they are
all subject to substantial regulation. Major areas of concern for regulation include reserve requirements, capital
requirements, lending rules, and deposit rules. For example, in the past, only commercial banks could offer
checking accounts, and savings banks could only offer saving accounts. Those restrictions were relaxed in the
1980s.
Money market mutual funds have been a major force in providing competitive interest rates to short-term
depositors. Technological innovation has been a major force in providing new services to customers. For
example, crediting interest on a daily basis was not feasible before the advent of modern computer technology.
The actual deposit expansion multiplier is less than the potential deposit expansion multiplier for two reasons:
·Banks may not loan out all available funds (i.e. they may have excess reserves, which are reserves that exceed
required reserves)
The central bank has three tools to control the nation's money supply:
1. Setting of Reserve Requirements - In general, banks will use their reserves to make loans and turn a
profit. In doing so, they increase the nation's money supply. Increasing (decreasing) the reserve ratio
decreases (increases) the amount of funds available to loan, thereby decreasing (increasing) the nation's
money supply.
2. Open Market Operations - The Federal Reserve can purchase or sell U.S. government securities on the
open market. When they purchase (sell) government securities, it increases (decreases) the nation's
money supply. The monetary base is equal to bank reserves (vault cash plus reserves held at the Federal
Reserve), plus money in circulation. The nation's money supply is a multiple of the monetary base. The
Federal Reserve's open market operations directly impact the size of the monetary base.
3. The Discount Rate – The discount rate is the interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve to banks that
borrow money from them. Typically this is done in order to meet temporary shortages of reserves. Note
that banks do not automatically have the right to do so. An increase (decrease) in the discount rate will
discourage (encourage) banks from letting reserves go to very low levels, thereby tending to decrease
(increase) the money supply.
So if the central bank wishes to pursue an expansionary monetary policy, it will lower reserve requirements,
purchase government securities on the open market and/or decrease the discount rate.
A restrictive monetary policy implies that the central bank will increase the reserve requirements, sell
government securities and/or increase the discount rate.
·Debit Cards – Debit cards transfer funds from the cardholder's checking account when used for purchases and
may induce some people to hold less cash.
·Holding of the U.S. dollar Outside of the U.S. - The amount of currency held by people outside of the U.S.
has greatly increased. These holdings are difficult to measure. The impact is greater on M1 than M2 because
currency accounts for a relatively smaller portion of M2.
· Greater Availability of No-load Mutual (Stock and Bond) Funds - It is now easier for investors to purchase
mutual funds without paying an up-front commission (load). These holdings are not counted in M1 or
M2. Many mutual funds companies let investors cash out or move their stock and/or bond holdings to a money
market account over phone or on the internet.
• To conduct transactions
• For precautionary reasons, such as to meet
emergencies, such as unexpected medical bills
• As a store of value
Note that this demand curve assumes other relevant factors are held constant. If the quantity of goods produced
increases and/or the price level increases, the demand for money will increase. This causes the demand curve to
shift to the right. If economic activity declines and/or prices go down, then demand for money will decrease.
Changes in the availability of financial instruments are also changing the demand for money over time. The
widespread availability of credit cards has reduced the amount of money that households need to keep on hand.
·Long-Run, Anticipated - Expansionary (restrictive) monetary policy will increase (decrease) the rate of
inflation and increase (decrease) nominal interest rates. Real interest rates, employment levels and real output
are not affected by monetary policy.
·Short-Run, Unanticipated - Unanticipated expansionary monetary policy, assuming the economy is not at full
employment, will somewhat increase prices, increase real output and reduce real interest rates. Unanticipated
restrictive monetary policy will increase real interest rates, decrease the inflation rate, reduce employment and
reduce output. This type of policy is appropriate when the economy is operating at greater than full
employment.
·Long-Run, Unanticipated - Expansionary monetary policy will lead to higher inflation and nominal interest
rates while real interest rates, real output and real employment will not be positively impacted. An important
point to remember is that, in the long run, inflation is the primary effect of expansionary monetary policy.
Formula 4.4
If quantity and velocity are basically constants, increasing the money supply will just lead to an increase in
prices (inflation). The Quantity Theory of Money holds that in the long run, because quantity and velocity are
not changed by the money supply, a percentage increase in the money supply will lead to a corresponding
increase in the price level. However, if monetary policy can influence velocity or quantity, monetary policy can
be useful.
The equation of exchange can be converted into the demand for money function:
Formula 4.5
Md = (P × Q) / V = Y / V
Where Md is the demand for money and Y is nominal GDP. From the monetarist's viewpoint, the demand for
money is related to nominal GDP, not interest rates (the Keynesian viewpoint).
4.20 - Inflation
Determining Inflation
The inflation rate is calculated by comparing the price level in one time period to the price level of a previous
period. Suppose the price level is currently 110, and the price level of the previous year is 100. The annual rate
of inflation would then be 10%.
Formula 4.6
Causes of Inflation
·Increase in the price level in the rest of the world – if prices increase in other countries, residents of those
countries will want to buy goods from domestic producers; i.e., exports will increase
Demand-pull inflation represents an increase in aggregate demand, which will shift the aggregate demand curve
to the right. Cost-push inflation will involve the aggregate supply curve shifting to the left.Both result in higher
price levels.
Unanticipated Inflation
Unanticipated inflation in the labor market will cause workers to work for less wages then what they would
knowingly work for. Employers may get higher profits due to the higher prices. The result will be a transfer of
income from workers to employers. There is also a possibility that employment will be higher than "full
employment".
Unanticipated inflation in the financial capital market also begets a transfer of income. In this case, borrowers
gain at the expense of lenders. The amount of borrowing and lending will not be optimal, as lenders will
unwittingly loan out too much funds.
There are many harmful consequences to inflation. Some of the consequences include:
• Individuals Apply their Efforts to Protecting Themselves from Inflation Instead of to Production -
People will spend a great deal of time and money acquiring information about how to protect themselves
(and/or profit) from inflation. Capital flows towards speculative assets such as gold and art objects,
instead of productive investments such as buildings and machinery and the incentive to speculate instead
of work increases.
• Inflation Increases the Risk of Investments - Wild fluctuations in price levels make forecasting future
earnings more difficult; this tend to discourage investment.
• The Information Delivered by Prices is Distorted by Inflation - Some price changes are restrained by
long-term contracts, while others respond quickly to changes in the general price level.
• Unanticipated inflation can change relative prices. These distorted prices may provide poor signals to
producers and resource suppliers.
That inverse relationship held true during the 1960s. During the
1970s, however, the U.S. economy experienced "stagflation" –
high unemployment and high inflation.
Unexpected rises in the inflation rate decrease the "real" wages of workers operating under long-term
employment contracts. This stimulates employment as real-wage costs to employers are
reduced. Underestimates of inflation induce job seekers to take job offers they may not otherwise take. The job
offer given may seem very good (if inflation is not taken into account) and it will be quickly taken. A worker
who understands that inflation is eroding his or her real wages would not be so quick to take the job offer.
Once works begins to anticipate inflation, there is no long-term reduction in the unemployment rate. In the
short-term, if inflation is higher than expected, there will temporarily be a reduction in unemployment. If
inflation is lower than expected, unemployment will be higher than normal.
• Expansionary fiscal and monetary policy leads to inflation, without a permanent reduction in
unemployment below the natural rate.
• If inflation is greater (less) than anticipated, unemployment will be below (above) the natural
unemployment rate
• If the inflation rate remains the same (does not increase or decrease), then the actual rate of
unemployment will move towards the natural rate of unemployment.
The following lessons were learned from the work with Phillips curves:
• Expansionary macro policy does not reduce the rate of unemployment, at least in the long run.
• Stable prices help keep unemployment low – stable prices are low unemployment are not conflicting
goals.
If economic participants expect higher inflation, they will alter their economic behavior. Lenders will be less
willing to make loans or will demand higher nominal rates of interest in order to compensate for the perceived
risk of inflation. Borrowers will seek more loanable funds in anticipation of higher prices. The net result will be
higher nominal interest rates.
Increases in the money supply will lead to higher price levels, unless there is a corresponding increase in real
output. Lenders will demand higher nominal interest rates so as to compensate for the expected inflation.
Potential GDP
The GDP that results from an economy operating at full employment with full utilization of capital is called
potential GDP.
A reduction in after-tax wages will occur with the enactment of an income tax. The supply curve of labor will
therefore shift up and to the left. The new equilibrium quantity of labor hired will be less than what would have
occurred with potential GDP. There will be a "wedge" between before-tax and after-tax wage rates. Taxes on
expenditure increase the size of the "wedge" and further reduce employment.
Keynesians argue that if output is less than what would occur at full employment, fiscal policy should be used
to stimulate aggregate demand.
There are three major ways in which fiscal policy affects aggregate demand:
1.Business Tax Policy - Business taxes can change the profitability of businesses and the amount of business
investment. Lowering business taxes will increase aggregate
demand and business investment spending.
3.Tax Policy for Individuals - Lowering taxes will increase disposable personal income and increase
consumption spending.
From the Keynesian viewpoint, fiscal policy should be used to increase aggregate demand when an economy is
operating at below full-employment levels. Ideally, the economy will be guided to output at the level of full
employment.
If aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply and output is at full-employment levels, fiscal policy should be
used to reduce aggregate demand. This will push the economy to a point of noninflationary equilibrium.
The Supply Side Model is an economic theory holding that bolstering an economy's ability to supply more
goods is the most effective way to stimulate economic growth. Supply-side theorists advocate income tax
reduction because it increases private investment in corporations, facilities, and equipment.
The Laffer curve shows the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue.
Governments would like to be at point T*, because it is the point at which the government collects maximum
amount of tax revenue while people continue to work hard. This would theoretically be the point at which
potential GDP is maximized.
Supply-side economists believe that high marginal tax rates, such as those experienced in the U.S. in the 1970s,
diminished aggregate production without raising substantial amounts of additional tax revenue. Tax cuts during
the 1980s (the Reagan presidency) are believed to have induced strong increases in supply, particularly with
regards to high-income earners. Supporters of the 2001 U.S. tax cuts, which reduced the top marginal tax rates,
believe that the cuts have increased economic growth through better supply-side incentives.
Tax policy also has consequences at a global level. Ireland has significantly reduced its personal and corporate
tax rates; during the 1990s its growth rate was much higher than the rest of Europe. There is an association with
high European tax rates and slow rates of economic growth.
Look Out!
Some consumption is considered to be autonomous. Even with no income, some consumption will occur
(savings will need to be used). So the consumption function could be expressed as C = α + (β × Y), where
α represents consumption that occurs regardless of income, β is the marginal propensity to consume and Y is
income.
If the marginal propensity to consume is equal to 0.8 (4 / 5), then the multiplier can be calculated as:
The previously mentioned formula for calculating the multiplier is a simplified one. Leakages (money spent, but
not on domestic goods or domestic services) reduce the size of the multiplier. Examples of leakages include
taxes and imports.
Another important point is that the multiplier effect takes time to work; months must pass before even half of
the total multiplier effect is felt. Also, keep in mind that the multiplier effect can cause idle resources to be
moved into production. If unemployment is widespread, then there should be little impact on resource prices.
Ideally, fiscal policy will be used to increase aggregate demand during recessions and to restrain aggregate
demand during boom times. Poorly timed fiscal policy
could actually increase inflation and accelerate declines in
the economy when the economy has already started to
slow down.
Automatic Stabilizers
Automatic stabilizers, without specific new legislation, increase (decrease) budget deficits during times of
recessions (booms). They enact countercyclical policy without the lags associated with legislative policy
changes. Examples include:
·Corporate Profits - Taxes on corporate profits go up substantially during boom times, and decline rapidly
during times of recession.
·Progressive Income Taxes – Progressive taxation push people into higher income tax brackets during boom
times, substantially increasing their tax bill and reducing government budget deficits (or increasing government
surpluses). During recessions, many individuals fall into lower tax brackets or have no income tax liability. This
increases the size of the government budget deficit (or reduces the surplus).
· The Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program – This program provides payments to greater numbers of
people as unemployment increases during times of recession. At the same time, the taxes that contribute to UI
will go down as employment decreases. These two effects will cause the government budget deficit to
increase. During boom times, the program will automatically produce surpluses (or reduce deficits) as fewer
benefits are paid due to lower unemployment and tax revenues increase due to greater employment.
Price level stability is only a means to a higher goal. That goal is a rising standard of living, which depends
upon sustainable growth in real GDP. Whether or not that growth is sustainable depends upon other factors such
as technological advances, availability of natural resources, the willingness of people to work, the willingness of
people to invest, and political stability. Monetary policy helps to create a stable environment which favors
investment and saving.
Expansionary monetary and fiscal policy often assumes that workers will accept lower real wages and that
investors will accept lower real rates of return. It is the willingness of workers to accept wages that are lower
than what they would normally demand, and the
willingness of investors to accept lower real interest
rates than normal that causes employment and real
production to increase. Nominal wages and interest
rates remain the same; inflation is doing the job of
cutting real wages and interest rates. Therefore, in
order for employment and production to increase,
inflation must increase so that real wages and interest
rates can go down. This relationship is described by
the original Phillips curve, which shows that inflation
accompanies lower rates of unemployment.
Also, they may not immediately see that inflation is occurring. Not all prices go up during times of inflation, so
it may hard to see the big picture.
Eventually, the public will understand and adapt to the new inflationary environment and they will seek raises
in wages and interest rates in order to bring them back to their old income levels. The economy will move to a
long-term equilibrium position in which output and employment return to points where they were before the
monetary and fiscal stimulus occurred. The major change will be that prices will be at a higher level.
This makes sense, as we should not expect major benefits to occur just from printing more paper money or
running larger government deficits!
Expectations essentially reduce the time that government policymakers can fool the public into accepting cuts in
real wage and real interest rates and, therefore, the positive effects of financial and monetary stimulus are
moderated.
New Monetarist vs New Keynesian Feedback Rules
There are two famous new feedback rules for monetary policy. Those rules are:
• The Taylor rule is a Keynesian feedback rule that focuses on short-term interest rates. The rule takes
into account the target inflation rate, the difference between actual inflation and the target inflation rate,
and the difference between real GDP and potential GDP.
• The McCallum rule is a monetarist rule that emphasizes the growth rate of money. It states that the
Federal Reserve should target a monetary base growth rate equal to the target inflation rate plus the ten-
year moving average of the real GDP growth rate minus the four-year moving average of the monetary
base velocity.
·Targeting an interest rate versus monetary growth (as usual for Keynesians versus monetarists!).
·The Taylor rule provides for a response to fluctuations in real GDP, while the McCallum rule does not.