Electric Vehicles

in 2013:
a Progress Report
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report
























Project lead
Greg Archer


Contributions & Special thanks
To Malcolm Fergusson for the data analysis, research and drafting

Published in July 2014 by Transport and Environment

Copyright 2014, Transport and Environment (T&E). Any reproduction in full or in part
of this publication must mention the full title and author and credit T&E as the copyright
owner. All rights reserved.
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 2

Table of contents

Executive Summary ..................................................................... 3
Introduction ............................................................................... 6
Electric Vehicles in 2013 .............................................................. 8
Future Prospects for Electric Vehicles .......................................... 18
How Future Policy can Support the Future Market .......................... 22


























Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 3

Executive Summary

This is the second part of T&Es annual Cars and CO2 report
1
that examines
developments in new car CO2 emissions. This part is focused on electric cars.

Analysis of provisional cars sales data in 2013 supplied by the European Environment
Agency
2
shows the market for electric vehicles (EVs) continues to grow strongly from a low
base. Sales have approximately doubled annually since production vehicles were first
marketed in 2010. In 2013, nearly 50,000 plug-in vehicles were sold in the EU representing
around 0.4% of all cars. The top three selling models in 2013 in the EU were all new entrants
(Renault Zoe, Mitsubishi Outlander and Volvo V60 Plug-in).

Manufacturer Model Type Segment
Sales 2012
(approx)
Sales 2013
(approx)
New
Entrant
Renault Zoe BEV Supermini - 8500
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV SUV - 8200
Volvo V60 Plug-in PHEV Large hatch 40 7580
Nissan Leaf BEV Compact 2800 6160

Toyota Prius Plug-in PHEV Midsize hatch 3200 4620

General Motors Volt/Ampera PHEV Midsize hatch 5300 3860

In contrast, sales of the best-selling models in 2012 (Opel Ampera and Peugeot Citroen iOn /
C-zero) both fell significantly. This suggests models and offerings with stronger consumer
appeal are now being introduced. Another example of this is the BMW i3 which was only
launched at the end of 2013 and therefore achieved only modest sales in-year.



1
http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/how-clean-are-europe%E2%80%99s-cars-2014-%E2%80%93-part-1
2
http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/co2-cars-emission-6
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 4

The EU accounts for about a quarter of global sales, which are also following a similar
growth trajectory to the European market.
3
The USA and Japan represent the largest
national markets, with California in particular having achieved a 4% market share, largely
driven by a mandate requiring manufacturers to sell EVs. In contrast, sales are still less than
1% in Japan and the rest of the US and are split evenly between battery electric and plug-in
hybrid models. In coming years growth in China is expected to be particularly strong.

There is a wide variation in sales of EVs between European countries with Norway and the
Netherlands achieving over 5% sales, compared to less than 1% elsewhere. In these two
countries generous fiscal incentives drove the market in 2013; in the Netherlands some of
the incentives ended on 31 December spurring last-minute purchases late 2013.

In 2013, as part of the Cars and CO Regulation, sales of ultralow carbon vehicles were given
an additional incentive as counting 3.5 times towards the manufacturers fleet average
emissions through a supercredit mechanism.
4
Mitsubishi earned 19g/km of supercredits,
artificially lowering its fleet average emissions from 123.9g/km down to 104.9g/km. Volvo
reduced its emissions using supercredits by 7.1g/km. These excessively generous credits
effectively reduce the need for companies to improve the efficiency of conventional vehicles
and have fortunately been capped for the 2020/1, 95g/km target.
5
It is essential that future
policy to encourage ultralow carbon vehicles post 2020 does not introduce hot air by
allowing far less efficient conventional vehicles.

The future trajectory of EVs sales is highly uncertain but seems likely to continue on at least
the trajectory achieved since 2010. On this basis European sales would exceed 100,000 by
2015, 500,000 by 2021 and 1 million by 2025. This steady growth is more likely in the
medium term than a sudden transformation of car sales to electric powertrains.

For the foreseeable future there is likely to be a diversity of fuels and powertrains including
small efficient internal combustion engines for micro or city vehicles, hybrids and plug-in
hybrids, electric and hydrogen vehicles which compete in different market segments.
Regulations need to support this competition beyond 2020, as the way passenger cars and
vans are decarbonised will progressively shift from improving the efficiency of conventional
vehicles to increasing sales of ultralow carbon vehicles (ULCVs) with alternative powertrains.
To achieve both of these objectives, establishing fleet average car CO standards for 2025
and 2030 based upon tailpipe emissions is an effective approach. Whilst zero-rating battery
electric and hydrogen vehicles does not reflect their full environmental impact, a
complementary policy to incentivise supply of low carbon fuels, such as a Fuel Quality
Regulation will encourage energy companies to decarbonise transport fuels.

Conversely, including transport in the Emissions Trading Scheme, as proposed by German
Carmakers,
6
would not provide the right market signal to require a shift to alternative
powertrains. The significant economic opportunities created by the shift to ultralow carbon
vehicles, such as is currently being achieved in the UK,
7
will not therefore be realized were

3
http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-fiscal-incentives_20140506.pdf
4
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:02009R0443-20130508&from=EN
5
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32014R0333&from=EN
6
Intervention by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) to a European Commission stakeholder event, Brussels, 27
th
March
2014
7
http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/news,lowcvp-news-uk-auto-sector-renaissance-driven-by-low-carbon-policy-focus-new_3026.htm
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 5

transport included in the ETS. Such a move would also eliminate wider benefits of more fuel
efficient cars to the EU economy, drivers and energy security.

To incentivise ultralow carbon vehicle sales a flexible mandate, similar to that successfully
used in California, is the most effective approach. This would encourage all carmakers to
ensure a minimum percentage of sales are ultralow carbon vehicles but provide flexibility on
how the target is met. A 2025 mandate of around 10% sales is likely to be both achievable
and on a pathway to fully decarbonise vehicles by 2050. Including a trading element, like in
California, further increases compliance flexibility without weakening incentives or the
regulation as a whole.

Electric vehicles can perform an important role in a shift to more sustainable mobility but
are not a panacea. Specifically, how and not whether a shift to emobility happens will
determine how sustainable the eventual outcome becomes. For example: unless vehicles
are powered by renewable energy, CO
2
benefits will be limited or even negative in some
countries. Unless EVs are used appropriately in combination with other sustainable
transport models, excessive car use will continue to impose huge costs through congestion
and reduce urban quality of life. The focus of future policy must not therefore be only to
increase sales but to encourage emobility where it makes the most economic and
environmental sense. This includes encouraging electric bikes, micro-urban passenger and
delivery vehicles, shared use cars and taxis and fleets in addition to growing the market
share amongst private buyers.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 6

Introduction
This is the second part of T&Es annual Cars and CO2 report
8
that examines developments
in new car CO2 emissions. This part is focused on electric cars.

Sustainable e-mobility

A shift to ultralow carbon cars is needed to achieve the required emission reductions from
road transport to achieve climate goals. Ut is therefore essential to begin to develop the
market for a range of ultralow carbon alternatives. Currently BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs are the
main contenders, but it is immaterial which alternatives emerge from the technology race,
so long as they deliver a genuinely sustainable outcome.

The question of whether a shift to e-mobility (electric or hydrogen cars) can deliver a
sustainable solution stimulates fierce discussion between those that view e-mobility as a
panacea for sustainability and those who argue that it perpetuates a car-dominated society
with inadequate environmental benefits. Both arguments are tenable, as it is the way a shift
to e-mobility happens that will determine how sustainable the eventual outcome will be.
The figure below illustrates the challenge.



Where and how ultralow carbon vehicles are driven; how the fuel is produced or
generated; and when the vehicle is charged will all profoundly affect whether e-mobility is a
sustainable transport solution. E-mobility could make a sizable contribution towards more
sustainable mobility and for these reasons it is one of the approaches we support. However
policy should be redirected to focus on the way electric vehicles are used rather than simply

8
http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/how-clean-are-europe%E2%80%99s-cars-2014-%E2%80%93-part-1
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 7

stimulating the substitution of vehicles with an internal combustion engine for ones with a
battery or fuel cell. T&E will shortly be issuing a briefing paper to explain how policy should
be redesigned to support a genuinely sustainable shift to emobility.

A note on data

The analysis in this report is derived primarily from data collated by the European
Environment Agencys provisional 2013 CO registration data, supplemented by recent ICCT
analysis
9
and other sources. The provisional car sales data for 2013 has been collated by the
European Environment Agency from data supplied by national administrations responsible
for car registrations in each of the 28 Member States. These data are currently under review
by carmakers. The preliminary data are of high quality, but there can be errors or omissions
in specific batches of data. Whilst for the total car data figures this rarely has much impact,
for EVs there are many fewer data points and sales vary enormously from one Member
State to another, so a single error or omission is more likely to influence the results
significantly. Hence some numbers may change for individual models or manufacturers as a
result of the ongoing review being undertaken by carmakers and the EEA. The overall
conclusions and key findings of this report are not anticipated to change.

What is an Electric Vehicle?

This report focuses on two categories of electric vehicles:
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are pure electric vehicles in that all of their power
is derived from mains electricity, supplied to an on-board battery which then drives
an electric motor (or possibly more than one) within the vehicle. These vehicles
produce zero emissions at the point of use, although they will still give rise to
emissions elsewhere if the power that they use comes all or in part from fossil-
fuelled power plants.

Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) are also powered primarily by electricity and can operate in
an all-electric mode similar to a BEV, but in addition they have a small conventional
internal combustion engine (ICE) which is used to enhance their performance or
extend the available range of the vehicle between charges, or both. These vehicles
do produce emissions of CO and other pollutants while the ICE is in operation, but
generally at a low level (with CO emissions typically of less than 50g/km). This
category of vehicles includes so-called range-extended electric vehicles such as the
Opel Ampera, where the internal combustion engine is used purely to top up the
battery to give greater range between charges, and does not drive the wheels
directly.

A hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is also a form of EV as it is powered by an electric
motor, although it does not derive its power from mains electricity. However in 2013 sales
of FCEVs were negligible so they are not considered in detail in this report. As noted below,
sales are expected to grow significantly in the future. Other types of hybrid, which derive
their motive power from petrol or diesel fuel but use an auxiliary electric motor to enhance
efficiency or performance, are not considered as EVs for the purpose of this report.

9

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 8

Electric Vehicles in 2013

Overview of Electric Vehicle sales in Europe in 2013

2013 recorded another year of growth in EV sales across Europe they more than doubled
to just short of 50,000 in the EU, or well above that figure with Norways 8,700 sales added.
This is the third consecutive year in which sales have more than doubled from the previous
one, with sales growing exponentially from just 700 in 2010. As against this, sales of around
50,000 EVs still made up only around 0.4% of all the new cars sold one car in every 250
sold and a tiny proportion of the total market.



This growth is partly the result of more major car companies offering EV models in the
market in 2013, although not all have prospered as illustrated in the following chart:




0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2010
2011
2012
2013
BMW Daimler General Motors Mitsubishi Nissan Peugeot-Citron
Renault Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Others
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Electrifying Progress
2010
2011
2012
2013
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 9

Daimler, Nissan and Toyota have all made steady progress, primarily on the basis of
established and popular models (the ForTwo Electric, Leaf and Plug-in Prius respectively).
Daimler tripled its sales to nearly 3,000 and Nissan more than doubled its sales to above
6,000 in 2013. Even more striking however is that these three have been rapidly overtaken
in 2013 by new entrants to the EV market Volvo and Mitsubishi and Renault, which have all
launched new and immediately-successful models. Each has sold more than 7,500 vehicles.
BMW and VW are other new entrants in 2013 with striking and innovative new products,
although both were still relatively small players in 2013 due to vehicles being launched late
in the year.

In contrast General Motors has faltered as sales of its Volt/Ampera models have suffered
from growing competition in the plug-in hybrid market. It is reported
10
that Opel/Vauxhall
may now withdraw the Ampera from sale in Europe after poor sales; but the original
Chevrolet Volt is currently still slated for a revamp in 2016. PSAs sales have also fallen away
significantly from more than 5,000 in 2012 to less than 1,000 in 2013, reportedly because
its CZero has been eclipsed by the new Renault Zoe. For Renault, the success of the latter
has more than made up for declining sales of the Fluence since the Better Place initiative
filed for bankruptcy in May 2013.

Top-selling EV models in 2013

Looking at sales of individual models, a number of important new features can be seen.

Manufacturer Model Type Segment
Sales 2012
(approx)
Sales 2013
(approx)
New
Entrant
Renault Zoe BEV Supermini - 8500
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV SUV - 8200
Volvo V60 Plug-in PHEV Large hatch 40 7580
Nissan Leaf BEV Compact 2800 6160

Toyota Prius Plug-in PHEV Midsize hatch 3200 4620

General Motors Volt/Ampera PHEV Midsize hatch 5300 3860

Daimler ForTwo Electric Drive BEV Citycar 1000 2960

Tesla Model S BEV Sports 35 1660
BMW i3 BEV/PHEV Compact - 1050
Volkswagen eUP BEV Citycar - 950
PSA C Zero/iOn BEV Small hatch 5100 880

CeComp (Bollor) Bluecar BEV Small hatch 1540 570

Mia Mia Electric BEV Citycar 510 260

In 2013, the top four models all sold way above the level of the 2012 top seller (the
Volt/Ampera, with sales of 5,300, now relegated to only sixth place). The popular Nissan
Leaf made progress from 2,800 sold in 2012 to over 6,000 in 2013, but can still only manage
fourth place in the increasingly competitive new market.


10
http://europe.autonews.com/article/20140721/ANE/307259991/opel-will-discontinue-weak-selling-ampera-sources-say
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 10

2013 also witnessed the arrival of several significant new plug-in hybrids, notably the
Mitsubishi Outlander, Volvo V60, Prius Plug-in and BMW i3 (as available as a BEV). As
described below, the new entrants also include several large or high end models that take
the range of EVs significantly beyond a small car niche.

Meet the new entrants

The Renault Zoe

Launch date:
2013 Sales:
December 2012
8,500
Type:
Segment:
BEV
Supermini
The Zoe went from new entrant to top seller in Europe in a
matter of months. It is a 5-door supermini with a 22 kWh
lithium-ion battery pack driving a 65 kW synchronous
motor. Top speed is 135 km/h with an official range of 210
km. It has a 5-star Euro NCAP rating. France has been by far
the largest market so far, but global sales reached 10,000 in
January 2014. Batteries are leased for a monthly fee.
The Mitsubishi Outlander
Launch date:
2013 Sales:
July 2013
8,200
Type:
Segment:
PHEV (44g/km)
SUV

The Outlander is the first mainstream SUV developed with
built-in provisions for either ICE or PHEV powertrains. In the
PHEV configuration, the two powertrains work either serially
or in parallel as conditions dictate. The 12 kWh lithium-ion
battery pack delivers an all-electric range of 60 km with a top
speed of 120 km/h.
The Volvo V60



Launch date:
2013 Sales:
September 2012
7,580
Type:
Segment:
PHEV
(49g/km)
Large
hatchback

The V60 is a large hatchback, and the world's first diesel
plug-in hybrid with a 5-cylinder 2.4-litre turbo diesel engine.
The electric motor is powered from a 12 kWh lithium-ion
battery pack, giving an all-electric range of up to 50 km. On
a full charge and full tank, the car's total range is estimated
at up to 1,200km.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 11


The Tesla Model S
Launch date:
2013 Sales:
August 2013
1,660
Type:
Segment:
BEV
Sports
hatchback

Developed in California, the Tesla Model S is the worlds first
all-electric production model luxury sports hatchback. Its
huge 85kWh battery can deliver over 300kW of power, giving
it an acceleration of 0-97km/h in 4.2 seconds, and a top
speed of 210 km/h. It also has a range estimated at 510 km at
a constant speed of 89 km/h. The battery accounts for much
of its 2 tonnes weight, and requires a special charger.
The BMW i3

Launch
date:
2013 Sales:
Jul
2013
1,050
Type:
Segment
:
BEV (0g/km) & PHEV
(13g/km)
Urban supermini
The i3 is a compact car with a design language developed
specifically for urban electric driving. It is sold as a pure electric
car, or in a range extender version with a very small petrol
engine and fuel tank. Extended range is 260-290km in normal
driving. The i3s many innovations include use of lightweight
aluminium and carbon-fibre reinforced plastics. Unlike Europes
other top-selling EVs, it has only 4 Euro-NCAP stars.
The Volkswagen eUp
Launch date:
2013 Sales:
November 2013
950
Type:
Segment:
BEV
City Car

The eUP is the fully electric version of the VW Up! It has
an 18.7 kWh lithium-ion battery, which is integrated into
the floor of the car. It has an official range of 160 km and
a top speed of 130 km/h. It has a novel energy
regeneration system, allowing the driver to balance
driveability against energy recovery.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 12

Danger High Voltage
It is striking that several of the new models described above for 2013 are of high power and
performance characteristics and not energy efficient. Sustainable low-carbon electricity is at
a premium and will remain so for a long time to come, and needs to used efficiently.
However, these new models arguably can make an important contribution to the
development of a vibrant electric vehicle market in a number of ways:

They challenge the persistent urban myth that EVs are small and underpowered cars
with limited range and performance;
People who can afford to drive luxury cars such as these are probably not the sort
who would choose to drive a more conventional EV, so they have the potential to
extend electric cars into further market segments;
Potential buyers are often the sort of influential people who might be able to help
change attitudes and policies towards EVs;
Luxury models such as these incorporate advanced features that are as yet too
expensive to include in a standard EV, but experience suggests that these
innovations will in time fall in price and trickle down to less expensive models,
thereby improving their performance and making them potentially more attractive,
efficient, etc.

A small number of high performance vehicles do not make a significant environmental
impact, but policy should not incentive their supply. In the future, incentives for electric
vehicles may need to include energy-efficiency criteria.

European EV sales in the global context

The small range of available EVs means that they are sold around the world with little or no
adaptation to local tastes or regulations. Total global sales therefore will ultimately
determine the success or otherwise of the technology.

The International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT) has recently published a report on
the global trend in EV sales and the incentives in place to encourage them in a range of
countries
11
. This confirms that the strong upward trend in sales reflected above for Europe
is also seen in both the US and Japan, with the US (and principally California) representing
the largest source of demand to date, at nearly twice the EU level. The EU accounts for
about 1 in 4 of the EVs sold globally in 2013. Both the US and EU exhibit a similar pattern of
rapid and exponential growth since the early days of EV commercialisation in 2009/10.
Globally, sales have roughly doubled in each of the past two years, from about 45,000
vehicles sold in 2011 to more than 200,000 in 2013, a similar pattern to that highlighted
above for Europe.


11
http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV-fiscal-incentives_20140506.pdf
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 13


Source: ICCT

Highly significant for the future is the strong growth now seen in China. This reflects
government-led encouragement for the take up of electric vehicles to address the twin
challenges of mass motorisation and acute air quality problems. Reflecting this large and
growing market, BMW Group, for example, predicts that China will become the world's
largest market for electric vehicles in at most five years, as more charging stations are built
and the government continues to promote low-emission cars very aggressively. However,
the carbon intensity of the Chinese grid electricity is likely to make the CO2 benfits modest.
"We expect that the Chinese car market for electromobility will become the largest for
those cars in a few years," commented Karsten Engel, BMW's CEO in China, recently.
"Because you have supply now, there are cars coming on the market. We are coming with
ours, others are coming as well". Volkswagen Group is also betting on vehicles with
alternative powertrains to spark future growth in the world's largest auto market, and has
announced plans to unveil at least 15 electric vehicle models in China by 2018.

It is extremely difficult for alternatively-fuelled vehicles to break into the long-established
and highly sophisticated market for ICEs because of the numerous barriers to entry that
they face. These include consumer conservatism and unfamiliarity with a new technology;
risk-aversion; misinformation; and the chicken and egg problem whereby people will not
buy an EV because of the lack of charging infrastructure, while infrastructure providers will
hold back if there is not enough demand for recharging. Whilst it is important that EVs are
used sustainably, it is also importatnt to grow the current niche market in order to:

Stimulate manufacturers to bring forward plans for new models or variants, thereby
widening the range of products available to a wider pool of potential buyers;
Stimulates innovation and competition amongst manufacturers to accelerates the
technical improvement of the models on offer;
Bring down prices (which remain substantially above those of conventional
equivalents), through both innovation and some economies of scale;
Increase the frequencyof routinely seeing EVs on the road, or having a friend or
colleague who uses one, which may bring more motorists to consider the possibility
of switching to an EV;
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
A
n
n
u
a
l

S
a
l
e
s
US EU Japan China Rest of world
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 14

Increase the use and installation of more and better public recharging infrastructure,
and this in turn will encourage more motorists to feel able to use an EV on a wider
range of journeys.
Sales across Europe and beyond

The recent analysis by ICCT has underscored that the scale of EV sales, expressed either as
the absolute number of vehicles sold or of the market share of new car sales that are EVs,
varies widely from one country to another. Even amongst the large developed countries, the
contrasts are striking, as the figure below illustrates.



Source: Based on ICCT data

Outside Europe, the USA and Japan represent the largest national markets as indicated
earlier. California also has by far and away the largest market share at 4%, driven by a
mandate requiring manufacturers to sell EVs. In contrast sales are still less than 1% in Japan
and the rest of the US. In these markets, sales are about evenly split between BEVs and
PHEVs.

As the figure illustrates, Norway and the Netherlands had by far the largest market share for
EVs in Europe in 2013, with both well above 5%. In these countries the split between BEVs
and PHEVs is very different, with the Netherlands standing out for its very high share of
PHEVs, while Norway has almost exclusively BEVs. This is mainly driven by the targeting of
national incentives.

0.9%
4.0%
0.6%
5.6%
0.8%
0.1%
6.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.2%
0.3%
EV Market Share i n
2013
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Rest of USA
California
Japan
Netherlands
France
China
Norway
Germany
United Kingdom
Sweden
Austria
Denmark
Sal es of EVs i n Mai n Gl obal Markets i n 2013
Battery Electric Vehicles
Plug-in Hybrids
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 15

Both the sudden leap in their market shares and the distinct contrast in the types of vehicles
bought strongly suggest that their large fiscal incentives for EVs were highly instrumental in
bringing about these increases.

For example, Norways fiscal incentive of approximately 11,500 per BEV (equivalent to
about 55% of a typical vehicles base price) helped deliver a 6% market share for BEVs in
2013, and a 90% market share increase from 2012 to 2013. Similarly, the fiscal incentive in
the Netherlands of about 38,000 for each PHEV (equivalent to about 75% of the vehicle
base price) in 2013 helped deliver a 5% market share for PHEVs in 2013, and a huge 1,900%
leap in market share from 2012 to 2013. This level and form of subsidy has clearly been
effective but is not sustainable, even in the medium term. Whilst tax incentives for sales of
low carbon vehicles are justified and an important tool to stimulate the early market, these
should be proportionate and subsidising car purchase through grants is not an appropriate
or long-term solution.

Elsewhere in Europe, the market shares of EVs remain much lower at below 1%, but there
are still marked contrasts between them. For example despite incentives sales in France the
UK and Germany are currently low.

Supercredits in the EU market

Under the Cars and CO Regulation, 2013 is the second year in which supercredits are
available for low carbon cars. Under this provision, each new car sold with tested CO
emissions of 50g/km or below is now counted 3.5 times towards the manufacturers
average for that year. That is, 2.5 imaginary EVs are added to the company total for each
EV sold. Supercredits are designed to incentivise sales of cars with the lowest carbon
emissions, but in doing so they effectively weaken the targets for companies that sell EVs.

In 2012, this provision had only quite limited impact on company performances; only for
GM, Nissan and Toyota did EVs represent more than 0.5% of sales, and only for Nissan did
the credit generated exceed 2g/km of improvement in its total sales weighted average CO
emissions. However, as the figure below illustrates, the new entrants to the market have
drastically transformed this picture.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 16


The most striking new feature is the huge supercredit benefit now attributed to Misubishi,
reflecting the very high proportion of its total sales now accounted for by the Outlander. As
a result it receives a supercredit of 19g/km, bringing its fleet average from 123.9g/km down
to 104.9g/km, one of the best corporate performances overall and way ahead of all the
main players. The same is true to a lesser extent for Volvo, whose EV sales in 2013
accounted for nearly 4% of its total and resulted in 7.1g/km of supercredit to add to an
already good overall performance in 2013.



The chart above illustrates the impact of supercredits on the largest beneficiaries distances
to target. From this, several key conclusions emerge:
For Nissan and GM, supercredits were sufficient to take them beyond the 2015
target in 2013.
All the other major beneficiaries are already well within the 2015 target, so have no
need for such generous rewards from supercredits.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
BMW
Daimler
General Motors
Mitsubishi
Nissan
Peugeot-Citron
Renault
Toyota
Volvo
All Manufacturers
Percent of sal es <50g/km
Supercredi t i n g/km
Supercredit in g/km
Average supercredit
% sales <50g/km
Daimler 2013
Average
Daimler with
Supercredit
General Motors
2013 Average
General Motors
with Supercredit
Mitsubishi 2013
Average
Mitsubishi with
Supercredit
Nissan 2013
Average
Nissan with
Supercredit
Renault 2013
Average
Renault with
Supercredit
Toyota 2013
Average
Toyota with
Supercredit
Volvo 2013
Average
Volvo with
Supercredit
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

C
O

E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
s

(
g
/
k
m
)
Average Mass (kg)
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 17

Only for Daimler do supercredits move its average towards the bottom left of the
graph, reflecting the fact that the ForTwo is substantially smaller and lighter than the
typical Daimler sold.
For all others, the average moves towards the bottom right, reflecting the fact that
the EVs sold are above the average weight of each companys sales.
In these cases, the shift in the average is more or less at right angles to the 2020
target line, such that the benefit from supercredits in terms of meeting future
targets is even greater than the CO averages alone would suggest.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 18


Company
Contribution of weight to supercredit
Daimler -57.5%
General Motors 20.2%
Mitsubishi 24.6%
Nissan 11.2%
Renault 16.9%
Toyota 18.2%
Volvo 19.0%

Indeed, for these companies, typically around one-fifth of the supercredit benefit of EVs
derives from their heavy weight rather than their ultralow CO. This in turn suggests that a
very high rate of supercredit (such as the 3.5 level for 2013) may actually incentivise the
manufacture of heavier EVs. This provides a further reason that within the Car CO2
regulation that company targets should be based upon the footprint of the vehicle being
sold not mass.
Future Prospects for Electric Vehicles

New EVs in the pipeline

The diversification of the EV market in 2013 is expected to continue in 2014 and probably
beyond. Notably, both VW and Ford have taken a different approach to the other major
manufacturers, preferring to base their EVs on their existing range of models. The benefits,
they argue, come from the ability to drive costs down through shared parts, and to have the
flexibility to build as many or as few cars as the market demands, as they are made on the
same production lines.

The Ford Focus Electric, for example, will be the first electric version of Fords most popular
mid-range hatchback. It has a 23kWh liquid-cooled battery that gives a range of 160km and
a top speed of over 135km/h. Acceleration is 0-100km/h in 11.4 seconds. Early reports
suggest that it looks extremely similar to its conventional cousins. It is expected to be
particularly popular in the vehicle fleet market.

The Volkswagen eGolf is also a BEV, sending 113bhp to the front wheels and giving it good
acceleration in spite of its weight. It can accelerate from zero to 60km/h in 4.2 seconds and
to 100km/h around six seconds later, with a top speed of 140km/h. It has a 24.2kW capacity
lithium-ion battery weighing 318kg, installed in the floor of the car to keep the centre of
gravity low. Many other components (including the drag coefficient) have been optimised
for the electric version. As with the eUP, the degree of regenerative braking applied is user-
adjustable, as is the level of power available in Eco and Eco+ driving modes. VW claims
that the eGolf is around 30 per cent more energy efficient than competitors such as the
Nissan Leaf, and quotes a typical range of 190km.

Also upcoming from VW is reported to be the TwinUp, a diesel-electric PHEV version of the
Up! and rumoured to better the performance of its all-electric cousin featured above. A
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 19

PHEV version of the Passat is also expected to be launched at the Paris Motor Show this
October.

The Electric Mercedes B-Class will be a high-end BEV, utilising the drive train of the Tesla
Model S. The top speed is limited to 160km/h to conserve battery life, which provides a
typical range of 185km. This will be an expensive, high-end car, and it remains to be seen
whether buyers will prefer this classic Mercedes design to the radical new approach
adopted by BMW.

Meanwhile BMW is seeking to build on the early success of the i3 with the launch in mid-
year of the i8, a luxury sports car PHEV. It has a 7.1kWh lithium-ion battery pack with
intelligent energy management that delivers an all-electric range of 37 km on the official
cycle. It has a low vehicle weight for its size 1,485kg thanks to numerous lightweight
components and a low drag coefficient. In all-electric mode the i8 has a top speed of
120km/h, or in sport mode it can deliver a mid-range acceleration from 80 to 120km/h in
2.6 seconds.

Nissan is capitalising on its success with the popular Leaf and has started production in
Barcelona of its second all-electric vehicle, the e-NV200, which is the all-electric version of
its NV200 van. It is now available across Europe as a five-seat combi passenger car, a light
commercial vehicle for urban deliveries, and an electric taxi. It uses the same drivetrain
technology as the smaller Leaf, but its larger format is intended to make it accessible in new
market segments. Top speed is capped at 122km/h, giving a range of around 170km, which
is comfortably above a typical daily van usage. Nissan claims that its low maintenance and
cheap fuel make it 40% cheaper to run that its diesel equivalent. Some major brands
(including Coca-Cola, FedEx, and British Gas) are already reported to have trialled the new
van, with BG already convinced enough to order 100 production vehicles.

The Electric Kia Soul will be the first globally-sold, mass-produced all-electric vehicle from a
Korean manufacturer. It is based on Kias popular urban mini-MPV crossover, the Soul, and
has recently been launched in Europe. This electric model is fitted with a 192-cell 27kWh
lithium-ion polymer battery delivering an official range of 210km on a single charge. The
81.4kW electric motor produces a high torque of 285Nm and an acceleration of 0-100km/h
in 11.2 seconds. Top speed is 145km/h. Kia has achieved a high energy density for its new EV
at 200Wh/kg, and uses novel equipment including a heat pump, smart air intake control and
an individually-tailored ventilation system to minimise ancillary demands on the battery.

The future trajectory of EV sales

Production model EVs only began to appear on Europes roads in 2010, and in that year only
a few hundred were sold. Sales have however at least doubled in each year since, with sales
reaching around 50,000 in 2013. The figure below illustrates the strong growth.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 20



However, as noted above, sales of around 50,000 EVs in 2013 still made up only a tiny
proportion of the total market. In this early stage of market development it is premature to
make predictions of future take-up. However, if this pace of growth was to continue, sales
would reach over 100,000 by 2015; almost 500,000 by 2020; over 1 million by 2025 and over
2 million by 2030. This would represent around 15% of all new car sales by 2030, and is
broadly consistent with national EV targets recently published by the International Energy
Agency.

T&E believes that, in order for the EU to meet challenging CO reduction targets for 2050,
cars and vans will need to be virtually carbon-free by that date. In order to achieve this, all
new passenger cars sold will need to be essentially carbon-free (ie EVs or equivalent) from
2035 at the latest. This will allow 15 years for a complete turnover of the car fleet. The early
trajectory will therefore need to be accelerated at some point in order to achieve climate
goals.

There are a number of reasons to be optimistic about high future rates of growth in the
short term:
Further new models are planned for launch;
The range of plug-in hybrid models available is increasing and these are more
attractive to some buyers;
Battery costs are falling and forecast to fall further, with new batteries
chemistries (such as lithium air) expected to become available in automotive
applications within a decade;
The market share in most countries is still extremely low, but two European
countries (Norway and the Netherlands) have achieved more than ten times
the EU average EV sales share albeit with a level of incentives that cannot
be sustained for long;
A number of manufacturers have indicated they will commercialise fuel cell
technology from 2015, creating further competition and choice.


y = 4461.5x
2
- 6452.3x + 3051.5
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013
European EV Sales
European EV Sales Polynomial fit
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 21

Battery Electric or Fuel Cells in the future?

The future trajectory of EVs is further clouded by the fact that global automakers are taking
different views whether battery electric technology or the hydrogen fuel cell provides the
best long term investment.

Toyota, for example, is ending its battery deal with US electric carmaker Tesla, and is
concentrating instead on mass-producing a fuel-cell vehicle, alongside its smaller rival
Honda. Nissan, by contrast, continues to bet on all-electric cars, unveiling its second model
this year despite relatively limited global sales to date of its flagship Leaf. It is pushing the
technology particularly hard in China.

Daimler, Toyota and General Motors are currently the frontrunners in developing fuel cells.
Toyota hopes to achieve a 500-kilometre range for its first fuel-cell car more than twice
that of a typical battery EV and to offer much faster refuelling in just a few minutes. If
realised, these performance parameters will eventually give fuel cell vehicles a clear edge
over EVs, but the technology is still under development and is very expensive. The necessary
infrastructure for hydrogen refuelling also presents even greater challenges than those of
installing EV recharging points. Hydrogen uses energy less efficiently and also needs to be
generated in a low carbon way.

Fuel-cell vehicles are expected to get a new push with the state of California launching a
new network of hydrogen refuelling stations. Fuel cells tend to be seen as the preferred
solution by US pundits on account of their better range and refuelling characteristics, to the
extent of sometimes understating the huge technical obstacles still to be overcome before
they can be widely marketed. Meanwhile EVs continue to consolidate their head start in
Europe in particular, where range limitations are arguably less of an obstacle than in the US,
and where an electric recharging infrastructure looks less problematic than a hydrogen one
would.

Overall, this scramble for ultra-low carbon technology is sparking massive investment, with
Japans seven major car manufacturers expected to spend a record $24 billion on green car
research and development this year, according to the Nikkei Business Daily. Hence further
and rapid technical developments are more or less guaranteed; but it remains to be seen
which of the two favourites will win out in the end.

Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 22

How Future Policy can Support the Future Market

Policy priorities

T&E continues to take the view that for the foreseeable future there will be a diversity of
fuels and powertrains. This will include small efficient internal combustion engines for micro
or city vehicles, hybrids and plug-in hybrids, electric and hydrogen vehicles. These will
compete to a greater or lesser extent in different market segments. We anticipate this
multi-powertrain environment is likely to continue until beyond 2030, at which point some
technologies are likely to obtain a competitive advantage and begin to predominate. Which
ultralow carbon solutions dominate will depend upon how future technologies develop, and
particularly their cost.

However, the focus of policy to simply drive sales of EVs the early development of the
market needs to be complemented by actions that encourage early niche markets where
EVs make both economic and environmental sense. These might include electric bikes,
micro-urban vehicles (such as the Renault Twizy), urban delivery vehicles, shared use cars
and taxis, and fleet vehicles. Such vehicles would be immediately attractive to local
authorities in urban areas, which could also support their deployment. This is not to suggest
there is no early market for private car sales but rather that this market will take time to
develop and should not be the exclusive focus of national policies particularly in countries
where there are no CO savings due to the high carbon electricity supply.

Post 2020, the way passenger cars and vans are decarbonised will progressively shift from
improving the efficiency of conventional vehicles to increasing sales of ultralow carbon
vehicles with alternative powertrains. The role of policy will therefore be twofold:
1. To continue to drive an improvement in the efficiency of conventional powertrains,
such as through hybridisation;
2. To support emerging alternative powertrains and enable these to establish an initial
market position and progressively compete against traditional engines and hybrids.

The shape of future regulation

T&E supports establishing vehicle fleet average CO
2
regulations based upon tailpipe
emissions for 2025, and probably 2030, as the best way to achieve the dual objectives of
improving vehicle efficiency and encourage the market for ultralow carbon vehicles. This is
because a tailpipe metric will zero-rate battery electric and hydrogen vehicles and provide a
significant incentive for their supply. Whilst zero-rating battery electric and hydrogen
vehicles does not reflect their full environmental impact, a complementary policy to
incentivise supply of low carbon fuels, such as a Fuel Quality Regulation to replace the
current Directive, should be used to encourage energy companies to decarbonise transport
fuels.

T&E does not favour supercredits to further incentivise supply of ultralow carbon vehicles.
This is because double counting of these vehicles effectively creates hot air in the
regulation by weakening the target as illustrated in the report. The success of a Zero
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 23

Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate in encouraging sales of BEVs in California illustrates that
this is a better approach, but T&E believes it could be improved and advocates a flexible
mandate. With a flexible mandate, all carmakers are encouraged to ensure a minimum
percentage of sales are ultralow carbon vehicles. Companies achieving more than the
mandated level of vehicles could then either:

1. Sell surplus credits to manufacturers not meeting their targets. Specialist carmakers
such as Tesla can thereby benefit directly from selling electric cars and earning
credits in the EU in a similar way that they do selling ZEV mandate credits in
California;
2. Use surplus credits to raise their own fleet average tailpipe target. This would
provide a link between policies to drive ultralow carbon vehicles and improving the
efficiency of conventional vehicles.
The percentage of ULCVs a company is required to sell would depend in part upon the
definition of what constitutes a ULCV. The current system of supercredits uses a threshold
of 50g/km but this approach incentivises vehicles with large batteries that can be energy
inefficient. This can be avoided by including an energy efficiency criterion for vehicles to
qualify towards the mandate. T&E is currently examining options for the definition of an
ULCV and the level of an appropriate mandate. As part of this work we are considering
whether the definition should be extended beyond cars (M1 class) to large quadricycle (L7
class) to stimulate the supply of small electric vehicles. To avoid electric cars receiving extra
incentives, by raising the company target by increasing the average mass to vehicles
supplied the target should be based upon the footprint not mass of the vehicle.

Heading on the wrong direction including transport in the Emissions
Trading Scheme

As part of the discussions on the 2030 climate and energy package, the German Car
industry
12
is advocating that road transport emissions should be included in the EU
Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The ETS covers around half of the EUs CO
2
and is based on
the 'cap and trade' principle. Within the cap, companies receive or buy emission allowances
which they can trade with one another. If transport were included in the scheme it is
anticipated that drivers would be required to pay for the carbon emissions associated with
the fuel burnt in their cars. The cost at the current low market price would be less than
0.02 rising to 0.07 if the carbon price rose to the level of 25-30 that is needed to
incentivise many policies to lower emissions; e.g. fuel switching from coal to gas.

If transport was included in the ETS there would be no incentive or requirement for
carmakers to improve the efficiency or lower the emissions of vehicles if the complementary
system of vehicle standards could be considered double regulation. The effects of this would
be universally detrimental as it would:

Undermine investment in low carbon automotive technologies for suppliers
Worsen energy security

12
Intervention by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) to a European Commission stakeholder event, Brussels, 27
th
March
2014
Electric Vehicles in 2013: A Progress Report | Page 24

Shift the burden of carbon saving from transport to industry and from sheltered
sector to potentially exposed ones damaging the EU economy
Delay and decelerate the rate of emissions reductions in transport putting at risk
achievement of climate goals
Introduce politically difficult increases in fuel prices that some Government may
be unwilling to pass on therby eliminating any environmental benefit
Increase, not reduce, the costs of motoring and therefore detrimental impact on
job creation in the wider economy.

Notably the significant economic opportunities created by the shift to ultralow carbon
vehicles, such as is currently being achieved in the UK,
13
will not be realized were transport
included in the ETS. Standards rather than than including transport in the ETS deliver the
wider benefits for the economy
14
and will drive the necessary shift to ultralow carbon
vehicles.


13
http://www.lowcvp.org.uk/news,lowcvp-news-uk-auto-sector-renaissance-driven-by-low-carbon-policy-focus-new_3026.htm
14
http://www.transportenvironment.org/what-we-do/cars-and-co2/publications