Country Concept

KazakhstanGross Domestic Product, Nominal

REAL GDP
KazakhstanConsumer Prices, All items
KazakhstanConsumer Prices, All items
KazakhstanMonetary Base
Real Money Base
KazakhstanTotal Reserves excluding Gold
KazakhstanNational Currency per U.S. Dollar, end of period
KazakhstanTotal expenditure, Cash (Gen. Govt.)
KazakhstanTotal expenditure, Cash (Gen. Govt.)
Real G

Unit
National Currency

2008

Index, 2010=100
Percent Change over Corresponding Period of Previous Year
National Currency
US Dollars
National Currency per US Dollar
National Currency
National Currency

3.21E+12

2008 Q1
2008 Jan
2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Q2 2008 Apr 2008 May
3.28605E+012
4.2E+012
3.89611E+012
4.9E+012
83.150943742 83.85379 84.34188
85.07646 85.9477
18.717770035 18.76944 18.68132
19.06079 19.50458
1.50950E+012 1.6E+012 1.6E+012
1.5E+012 1.7E+012
1.25517E+012 1.3E+012 1.3E+012
1.3E+012 1.5E+012
17150751504 1.7E+010 1.7E+010
1.9E+010 2.0E+010
120.22
120.87
120.69
120.39
120.47
6.49E+11
780307439464

8.32E+11
9.8E+011

1.3069430061

Government Expenses (2010 KZT)

1200000000000
1000000000000
800000000000
600000000000
400000000000
200000000000
0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4
780307439463.978 978250655204.478 988708714348.297 957946923484.27
751484527786.028 1090395166596.38 1029513032819.48 1102671777832.19

0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4
780307439463.978 978250655204.478 988708714348.297 957946923484.27
751484527786.028 1090395166596.38 1029513032819.48 1102671777832.19

2008 Jun

2008 Q3
2008 Jul 2008 Aug 2008 Sep 2008 Q4 2008 Oct
4530047000000
4.2E+012
5091994935423
4.7E+012
86.97513
87.73899 88.46868 88.96409
89.52051
20.03705
20 20.15578 18.24197
13.91925
1.8E+012
1.7E+012 1.8E+012 1.8E+012
1.6E+012
1.5E+012
1.5E+012 1.5E+012 1.6E+012
1.4E+012
1.9E+010
1.9E+010 2.0E+010 2.0E+010
1.9E+010
120.75
120.19
119.65
119.81
119.81
8.67E+11
988708714348.3

E
I

2008
3705213732501

10 KZT)

Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

4348.297 957946923484.27
32819.48 1102671777832.19

8.58E+11
9.6E+011

Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

4348.297 957946923484.27
32819.48 1102671777832.19

2008 Nov 2008 Dec

89.88414
11.30553
1.3E+012
1.2E+012
1.7E+010
120.35

90.08182
9.466192
1.5E+012
1.4E+012
1.8E+010
120.79

2009 2009 Q1 2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Q2

3.1E+012
3.4E+012
3.4E+012
3.6E+012
90.37711 91.11169 91.85358
8.69042 8.655413 8.90625
2.0E+012 2.3E+012 2.2E+012
1.8E+012 2.1E+012 2.1E+012
1.6E+010 1.7E+010 1.7E+010
121.56
150.26
151.4
3.70E+12
6.79E+11
1.01E+12
7.5E+011
1.1E+012

2009 Apr 2009 May 2009 Jun

92.59304
8.835088
2.2E+012
2.0E+012
1.7E+010
150.64

93.20559
8.444545
2.3E+012
2.1E+012
1.8E+010
150.44

2009 Q3 2009 Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Sep 2009 Q4

4.6E+012
5.3E+012
4.9E+012
5.6E+012
93.55213
93.79862 93.97677 94.33308
7.561941
6.906431 6.226035 6.035003
2.3E+012
2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.7E+012
2.2E+012
2.5E+012 2.4E+012 2.6E+012
1.6E+010
1.8E+010 1.8E+010 1.8E+010
150.43
150.71
150.8
150.95
9.66E+11
1.0E+012

1.04E+12
1.1E+012

2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec

94.69182
5.776675
2.6E+012
2.4E+012
1.8E+010
150.74

95.12134
5.826613
2.5E+012
2.4E+012
2.1E+010
148.67

95.668
6.201235
2.5E+012
2.3E+012
2.1E+010
148.46

Concept
Consumer Prices, All items
Consumer Prices, All items
Monetary Base
Real Money Base

Unit
Index, 2010=100
Percent Change over Corresponding Period of Previous Year
National Currency

Total Reserves excluding Gold

US Dollars
KZT

National Currency per U.S. Dollar, end ofNational

period Currency per US Dollar
Real
Exports
USD
Imports
USD
TB
USD
TB in KZT/REAL

Inflation (%)
25
20
15
10
5
0

Real Money Supply (2010 KZT)

3500000000000
3000000000000
2500000000000
2000000000000
1500000000000
1000000000000
500000000000
0

GDP (2010 KZT)

6000000000000
5000000000000
4000000000000
3000000000000
2000000000000
1000000000000
0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

Financial Account (USD)

300000000
200000000
100000000
0
-100000000
-200000000
-300000000
2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

1 Contaigion increased (world financial crisis)

2 BoP goes down (FA and CA go down)
3 Money supply falls
4 GDP starts to fall
5 Tax revenue falls, G spending must fall
6 CB wants to remedy, plans one time devalue
7 Currenny dvalues, TB worsens for several months

2008 Jan
2008 Feb 2008 Mar 2008 Apr 2008 May 2008 Jun 2008 Jul 2008 Aug
83.150943742 83.85379 84.34188 85.07646 85.9477 86.97513 87.73899 88.46868
18.717770035 18.76944 18.68132 19.06079 19.50458 20.03705
20 20.15578
1.50950E+012 1.6E+012 1.6E+012 1.5E+012 1.7E+012 1.8E+012 1.7E+012 1.8E+012
1.81538E+012 1.9E+012 1.9E+012 1.8E+012 2.0E+012 2.0E+012 1.9E+012 2.0E+012
17150751504 1.7E+010 1.7E+010 1.9E+010 2.0E+010 1.9E+010 1.9E+010 2.0E+010
2.47966E+012 2.4E+012 2.5E+012 2.7E+012 2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.6E+012 2.7E+012
120.22
144.58043961
5180100000
2302844932
2877255068
415994802627

120.87
144.1437
5.1E+009
2.3E+009
2.8E+009
4.1E+011

120.69
143.0962
5.5E+009
2.5E+009
3.0E+009
4.3E+011

120.39
141.508
5.7E+009
3.0E+009
2.8E+009
3.9E+011

120.47
140.1666
6.5E+009
3.5E+009
3.0E+009
4.2E+011

120.75
138.8328
7.0E+009
3.5E+009
3.5E+009
4.9E+011

Reserves (2010 KZT)

3500000000000
3000000000000
2500000000000
2000000000000
1500000000000
1000000000000
500000000000
0

120.19
136.9859
7.0E+009
4.0E+009
3.0E+009
4.1E+011

119.65
135.2456
7.6E+009
3.5E+009
4.1E+009
5.5E+011

Currency Facts
Managed Float (AKA FIXED)
(Trade balance positive>>> MS going up)
Nov 2008, MS starts to go up, GDP increases as part of Y going up
Trade balance falls rapidly>>>>currency reserves fall, global min in Jan 09,
Short term: Y falls, imports increase (short term, J curve)
Long Term: Cheaper currency = increased exports, trade balance continues
Whole time interest is fixed at 7%,

This is about time of the financia

FA became greatly negative, hen
CB wanted to correct this, increa

9 Q3 2009 Q4

Government Expenses (2010 KZT)

1200000000000
1000000000000
800000000000
600000000000
400000000000
200000000000
0
2008 Q1
Q3

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009

2009 Q4

Interest Rates

nancial crisis)

e time devalue
for several months

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009

2008 Sep 2008 Oct 2008 Nov 2008 Dec 2009 Jan 2009 Feb 2009 Mar 2009 Apr
88.96409 89.52051 89.88414 90.08182 90.37711 91.11169 91.85358 92.59304
18.24197 13.91925 11.30553 9.466192 8.69042 8.655413 8.90625 8.835088
1.8E+012 1.6E+012 1.3E+012 1.5E+012 2.0E+012 2.3E+012 2.2E+012 2.2E+012
2.0E+012 1.8E+012 1.4E+012 1.7E+012 2.2E+012 2.5E+012 2.4E+012 2.4E+012
2.0E+010 1.9E+010 1.7E+010 1.8E+010 1.6E+010 1.7E+010 1.7E+010 1.7E+010
2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.3E+012 2.4E+012 2.2E+012 2.9E+012 2.8E+012 2.8E+012
119.81
134.6723
6.5E+009
3.5E+009
3.0E+009
4.1E+011

119.81
133.8352
6.3E+009
3.3E+009
3.0E+009
4.0E+011

120.35
133.8946
4.6E+009
3.0E+009
1.6E+009
2.2E+011

120.79
134.0892
4.2E+009
3.6E+009
6.0E+008
8.1E+010

121.56
134.5031
2.6E+009
1.8E+009
7.5E+008
1.0E+011

150.26
164.9185
2.7E+009
2.0E+009
7.5E+008
1.2E+011

Trade Balance (2010 KZT)

600000000000
500000000000
400000000000
300000000000
200000000000
100000000000
0

Row 15

CPI (100=2010)
100
95
90
85
80
75

151.4
164.8275
2.7E+009
2.2E+009
5.3E+008
8.7E+010

150.64
162.6904
2.8E+009
2.5E+009
3.4E+008
5.5E+010

75

>>> MS going up)

Y going up
global min in Jan 09, CB decided to depreciate currency to stimulate exports

e balance continues to improve: GDP goes up, surpasses old GDP by end of the quarter

t time of the financial crisis so the decrease in money supply is most likely because contaigen increased
greatly negative, hence the decreasing MS, even with a positive TB
o correct this, increased the money supply>>>>>>Devaule. See above

BoP (USD)

9000000000

8000000000
7000000000
6000000000
5000000000
4000000000
3000000000
2000000000
1000000000
0
2008 Q1

9 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

erest Rates

Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2009 May 2009 Jun 2009 Jul 2009 Aug 2009 Sep 2009 Oct 2009 Nov 2009 Dec
93.20559 93.55213 93.79862 93.97677 94.33308 94.69182 95.12134
95.668
8.444545 7.561941 6.906431 6.226035 6.035003 5.776675 5.826613 6.201235
2.3E+012 2.3E+012 2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.5E+012 2.5E+012
2.4E+012 2.5E+012 2.9E+012 2.7E+012 2.9E+012 2.7E+012 2.6E+012 2.6E+012
1.8E+010 1.6E+010 1.8E+010 1.8E+010 1.8E+010 1.8E+010 2.1E+010 2.1E+010
2.8E+012 2.6E+012 2.9E+012 2.9E+012 2.9E+012 2.9E+012 3.3E+012 3.2E+012
150.44
161.4066
3.1E+009
2.3E+009
7.7E+008
1.2E+011

150.43
160.798
3.3E+009
2.4E+009
8.4E+008
1.3E+011

150.71
160.674
3.8E+009
2.4E+009
1.4E+009
2.3E+011

150.8
160.4652
4.2E+009
2.3E+009
1.9E+009
3.0E+011

150.95
160.0181
4.2E+009
2.6E+009
1.6E+009
2.5E+011

150.74
159.1901
4.3E+009
2.4E+009
1.9E+009
3.0E+011

Real Exchange Rate (2010 KZT/USD)

170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
130
125
120

148.67
156.2951
4.0E+009
2.4E+009
1.5E+009
2.4E+011

148.46
155.1825
5.6E+009
3.0E+009
2.6E+009
4.0E+011

taigen increased

Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

Country Concept
Data Source
Status
Unit
Scale
2008 Q1
2008 Q2
KazakhstanFin. Acct., Fin.
International
derivatives
Published
Financial
(other US
than
Statistics
Dollars
reserves)
(IFS)
Unitsand employee
210111356.93
stock options
-1E+008
KazakhstanCurrent Acct.,
International
Goods and
Published
Financial
Services,
US
Statistics
Net
Dollars (IFS)
Units
7198769830 7.4E+009
BOP
7408881187 7.3E+009
KazakhstanInterest Rates,
International
Monetary
Published
Financial
Policy-Related
Percent
Statistics
Interest
per(IFS)
Units
Annum
Rate
11
11
BOP REAL
1.06018E+012 1.0E+012
143.09616602 138.8328
FIN REAL
30066129613 -2E+010

BoP (2010 KZT)

1200000000000
1000000000000
800000000000
600000000000
400000000000
200000000000
0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

40000000000
30000000000
20000000000
10000000000
0
-10000000000
-20000000000
-30000000000

-40000000000
2008 Q1 2008

2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

-3E+008 -4749779 -2E+008 -3E+007 1.2E+008 19303673
8.2E+009 3.8E+009 9.1E+008 5.5E+008 3.0E+009 4.6E+009
8.0E+009 3.8E+009 7.3E+008 5.2E+008 3.1E+009 4.6E+009
10.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7
7
1.1E+012 5.1E+011 1.2E+011 8.3E+010 5.0E+011 7.1E+011
134.6723 134.0892 164.8275 160.798 160.0181 155.1825
-3E+010 -6E+008 -3E+010 -5E+009 2.0E+010 3.0E+009

Interest Rates
12
10
8
6
4
2

Q3 2009 Q4

0
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

Fin Account (2010 KZT)

000000000

000000000

000000000

000000000
0

000000000

000000000

000000000

000000000
2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

Country Concept Data Source

Status
Unit
KazakhstanTotal expenditure,
International
Cash
Published
(Gen.
Financial
Govt.)
National
Statistics
Currency
(IFS)
KazakhstanTotal expenditure,
International
Cash
Published
(Gen.
Financial
Govt.)
National
Statistics
Currency
(IFS)

Country Concept Data Source

Status
Unit
KazakhstanConsumer Prices,
International
All items
Published
FinancialIndex,
Statistics
2010=100
(IFS)
KazakhstanConsumer Prices,
International
All items
Published
FinancialPercent
Statistics
Change
(IFS) over
KazakhstanInterest Rates,
International
Monetary
Published
Financial
Policy-Related
Percent
Statistics
Interest
per(IFS)
Annum
Rate
Real

Scale
Units
Units

2008
3.2E+012

Scale
2008 Q1
Units
83.78221
Corresponding
Units
18.72277
Period of Previous Yea
Units
11
-7.722767

Real Interest Rate

2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

200

009 Q2

2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3

3.7E+012
6.5E+011 8.3E+011 8.7E+011 8.6E+011
6.8E+011 1.0E+012 9.7E+011
1.153602

2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4

85.99976 88.39059 89.82882 91.11413 93.11692 94.03616 95.16039
19.53641 19.4558 11.52914 8.751165 8.27579 6.387071 5.93525
11
10.5
10.5
9.5
8.5
7
7
-8.536409 -8.955805 -1.029138 0.748835 0.22421 0.612929 1.06475

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2009 Q4
1.0E+012