Mexican Renewables

Oil DA
Mexican crude oil exports are low nowsupply and demand
EIA, 5/15/13 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Mexico Week: Crude oil moving north,
products moving south characterizes U.S.-Mexico trade",
www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11271 //kdh)
The United States and Mexico conduct a significant amount of trade in crude oil and petroleum products, with the United States
primarily importing crude oil from Mexico and exporting refined petroleum products to Mexico. In 2012, the United States
imported nearly one million barrels per day (bbl/d) of crude oil from Mexico, while exporting 600,000 bbl/d
of petroleum products to Mexico (see chart above). The drivers for recent trends in crude oil and petroleum product trade
between the two countries include rising crude oil production in the United States, falling Mexican crude
oil production, and rising demand in Mexico for petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel.
Mexico is the third largest supplier of crude oil imports to the United States. However, the 972,000 bbl/d
of U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 was the first time since 1994 that imports from Mexico were below one
million bbl/d. Meanwhile, Mexico's use of refined petroleum products rose 20% over the past 10 years, while its capacity
remained the same. Mexico increasingly looks to the United States to meet its growing need for petroleum products. Since 2004,
U.S. exports of petroleum products to Mexicoprimarily motor gasoline and diesel fuelhave nearly tripled (see chart below).
Investing in Mexico decreases US dependence on OPEC nations
Ahdoot et. al, 1 (Jason D. Ahdoot, Attorney at the Law Offices of Jason D. Ahdoot, Masters in
Public Policy from Pepperdine University School of Law, David Vela, Charity Morsey, "Alleviating
U.S. Dependence on OPEC", Pepperdine University School of Public Policy, April 2001,
publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/master-public-policy/content/capstones/opec.pdf //kdh)
If the U.S. invests more money in countries that have proven reserves, it may be able to lessen
dependence on oil from OPEC and safeguard itself from an oil shortage at a time of crisis or economic disruption. The
U.S. could invest in domestic production capacity, as well as production and refining facilities abroad. Currently,
non-OPEC production is concentrated in seven countries including Canada, UK Mexico, Norway, China, Russia and the US. Currently,
the Bush administration has called for an expansion in imports of petroleum from Mexico. The administration calls for more
privatization of the oil reserves in Mexico and more investment by U.S. oil producing companies. This makes sense because aside
from the fact that Mexico is one of our closest neighbors, we have a bilateral trade pact that would facilitate the export of oil,
creating a relatively safe investment opportunity. In a recent study, the British Petroleum Statistical Review, Mexico has 28.4 million
barrels of proven oil reserves as of 1999. Contracts with Mexico for the importation of oil to the U.S. have been on the rise since
1994.37 This capacity has been furthered with the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). NAFTA
has pierced through many jurisdictional barriers, allowing Americans to enjoy the importation of Mexican petroleum. Because
Mexico has large proven reserves, and the U.S. has such a high demand for petroleum, we should be
able to facilitate a mutually beneficial relationship. In Mexico, privatization of the nationalized petroleum industry may be a
challenge, but the current administration has promised to help Americans with their energy crisis. PEMEX has long been the existing
monopoly, and the Mexican Constitution stipulates that natural resources such as oil and gas must remain nationalized. In hopes of
liberalizing a sector of this monopoly and amending the constitution, newly elected Mexican President V. Fox has appointed four of
Mexicos wealthiest businessmen to the PEMEX board. The U.S. government in this instance can opt to invest in Mexicos energy
sector via NAFTA negotiations. If so, NAFTA will be renegotiated in the year 2007. This could serve as an opportunity
for the US to propose plans for a more integrated energy trade and regional self-sufficiency strategy. The
precursors for establishing a regional trade agreement with Mexico already exist within the political and economic
framework of the Mexico-U.S. NAFTA partnership. These policies are a benchmark for the
development of geographical linkages for self-sustenance. An investment in Mexico would mitigate the
impact of aggressive policies by the Middle East and its destabilizing surprises.
Their solvency is our links
OPEC members will flood the market our evidence postdates yours and
assumes U.S. shale findings
McCarthey and Jones, 6/8/13 (global energy reporter for the Globe and Mail, business reporter
for the Globe and Mail, citing Saudi Arabias oil minister and OPEC, OPECs slipping grasp on the
worlds oil market, The Globe and Mail, 6/8/2013, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-
on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/opecs-slipping-grasp-on-the-worlds-oil-
market/article12431746/?page=1, JKahn)
OPEC ministers put on a brave face when pressed about one of a number of growing threats to the cartels influence over world
crude oil markets surging shale oil production in the United States. At OPECs home base in Vienna last week, Saudi Arabias
powerful oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, played down the impact of the light, sweet crude that is gushing in
record volumes from beneath North Dakotas bald prairie and the scrubby landscape of South
Texas. This is not the first time new sources of oil are discovered, dont forget history, he said.
There was oil from the North Sea and Brazil, so why is there so much talk about shale oil now? Secretary-general Abdalla El-Badri
was even more blunt: OPEC will be around after shale oil finishes. Despite the bluster from the biggest names in the 12-nation
group that supplies a third of the worlds oil, however, it is clear the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is getting
nervous, and experts are questioning how long the cartel can act together to hold sway over global oil prices. At the meeting, where
the group kept its production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, it also took the revealing step of forming a committee to study the
impact of the hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. The technology is propelling North America toward energy self-sufficiency
and may spread to other countries with their own shale oil prospects. It is a great concern for us, even if we do respect the integrity
of the U.S. to be self-sustainable in terms of oil and gas, said Nigerian Oil Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Alison-Madueke,
whose country is among the most affected in terms of the loss of exports to the United States. More than 50 years after it was
created to wrest economic power from the major oil companies, the OPEC oil cartel finds itself at risk of losing its dominant role in
the global oil market. The group is increasingly competing with new oil sources that are starting to chip away at its share in
previously secure markets, while a shaky global economy keeps demand for oil at bay. Also troubling for OPEC as it looks to protect
oil prices: One key member, long-suffering Iraq, is aiming to dramatically increase production and flex its
muscles again as a major exporter. It adds up to a nightmare scenario for the group. China, Russia and other countries
are taking early steps to emulate the North American unconventional oil boom of recent years, which has the U.S. on track to
overtake Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer. Some key OPEC members, meanwhile, are eager to
pump as much as possible to bring in badly needed revenue, rather than restrain output as part
of any concerted effort to add upward pressure to prices. The risk is that such a scenario leads
to cutthroat competition and a flood of oil in global markets, triggering a plunge in prices that
could threaten the economic and political stability of its member nations. Theres a storm
brewing on the horizon, said Greg Priddy, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a Washington-based
political risk firm, You are looking a year or two out before it becomes acute. But that is the direction we are headed. How
Saudi Arabia and the rest of the fractious group cope with its external and internal threats will
have ripple effects around the globe, from consumers ever sensitive to pump prices, to Chinas fast-growing
industries, to Albertas high-cost oil sands producers that need rich enough prices to justify new investment in their own vast
reserves. The coming supply shock There is no question that OPEC still holds sway in the market.
Traders from Singapore to New York to Calgary hang on every word its ministers utter as they enter and exit closed-door meetings,
to gauge potential impacts on prices. The groups firm hand on its oil taps in the face of growing supplies from non-OPEC countries
continues to influence international prices, which have remained around its $100 (U.S.) a barrel target. Still, OPECs world is
changing. They are not at a pivot point yet, but there are clear challenges ahead, said Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of IHS Inc. and a
leading consultant on the global oil industry. There are geopolitical challenges regional challenges that come with the stand-off
over Irans nuclear program and the concerns Arab Gulf states have over it, and the Syrian conflict, which has elements of being a
proxy war among countries that are key members of OPEC. And there is the buildup of supply coming from North America in
particular this dramatic increase, this surge, in U.S. oil production and also the potential recovery of Iraq, [which is] very keen to
make up for lost time. As recently as last year, OPEC members dismissed booming U.S. shale oil
production as a flash in the pan. The formation of a study group to pore over the impacts shows the that thinking has
changed. It is no wonder. In its May Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency referred to growth in U.S.
light oil, along with the Canadian oil sands, as a supply shock that will be as transformative to the market over the next five years
as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15. Driven by the boom in oil production from regions such as the North Dakota
Bakken and Eagle Ford in Texas, the United States is now on track to be the worlds largest oil producer in the next decade,
according to some forecasts. The IEA, the Wests energy watchdog, has predicted the United States will pump 11.1 million barrels a
day by 2020, up from nearly seven million in 2012 and surpassing Saudi Arabia in the process. North Dakota production has more
than doubled in two years to nearly 800,000 barrels a day. Already, after decades of promises, the shale revolution is helping the
U.S. finally shake its unhealthy addiction to imported oil, as former president George W. Bush called it. That alone will not strip
OPEC of its overall market power. But cartel members such as Nigeria and Algeria that are known for producing light sweet crude
the easily flowing supplies that are low in sulphur content and simple to refine are feeling the pinch. U.S. imports from Nigeria
were more than halved to 403,000 barrels a day in March, 2013, from 913,000 in March, 2011, according to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration. Nigeria, Algeria and others have redirected exports to Asia and other markets amid expectations that
the U.S. will eventually require no such supplies, said Michael Wittner, managing director and head of commodities research for
Socit Gnrale SAs Americas operations. Is OPEC relevant? As long as the shale oil is a North American
thing, yes. Thats something I would say will hold for maybe a five-year time horizon., Mr. Wittner said. Out beyond that, the
question becomes much more complicated. He points out that other countries, including Russia, China, Australia and Argentina,
may have large shale oil reserves that could one day mean stiff new competition for the OPEC producers. As we move into
unconventionals, OPEC is no longer going to hold all the cards, said Thomas Pyle, president of the Institute for Energy Research in
Washington. Many in the U.S. see Canada and the proposal to build the Keystone XL pipeline to get increasing volumes of Alberta
bitumen to the U.S. Gulf Coast as an important move in the geopolitical game. If the U.S. government got its act together and
approved the Keystone pipeline, it would forge us a lasting relationship with Canada that would shift global energy power quite
significantly, Mr. Pyle said. An immediate concern for OPEC due to falling light oil exports to the U.S. is increased competition with
other crudes such as those from the North Sea and Russia, said Judith Dwarkin, director of research at ITG Investment Research. As
the U.S. draws less on globally traded crudes, those crudes will then be looking for a home and thats where the pressure comes
competition among non-North American internationally traded crudes of which OPEC is a big part, but there are others, Ms.
Dwarkin said So its a somewhat more competitive environment in that sense.
Oil prices key to the Russian economy
Schuman 12 (Michael, Asia and Economics Correspondent TIME, B.A. in Asian History and
Political Science University of Pennsylvania, M.A. in International Affairs Columbia University,
Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices, Time, 7-5,
http://business.time.com/2012/07/05/why-vladimir-putin-needs-higher-oil-prices/, Deech)

But Vladimir Putin is not one of them. The economy that the Russian President has built not only
runs on oil, but runs on oil priced extremely high. Falling oil prices means rising problems for
Russia both for the strength of its economic performance, and possibly, the strength of Putin
himself. Despite the fact that Russia has been labeled one of the worlds most promising
emerging markets, often mentioned in the same breath as China and India, the Russian
economy is actually quite different from the others. While India gains growth benefits from an
expanding population, Russia, like much of Europe, is aging; while economists fret over Chinas
excessive dependence on investment, Russia badly needs more of it. Most of all, Russia is little
more than an oil state in disguise. The country is the largest producer of oil in the world (yes,
bigger even than Saudi Arabia), and Russias dependence on crude has been increasing. About a
decade ago, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russias exports; in recent years, that
share has risen to two-thirds. Most of all, oil provides more than half of the federal
governments revenues. Whats more, the economic model Putin has designed in Russia relies
heavily not just on oil, but high oil prices. Oil lubricates the Russian economy by making possible
the increases in government largesse that have fueled Russian consumption. Budget spending
reached 23.6% of GDP in the first quarter of 2012, up from 15.2% four years earlier. What that
means is Putin requires a higher oil price to meet his spending requirements today than he did
just a few years ago. Research firm Capital Economics figures that the government budget
balanced at an oil price of $55 a barrel in 2008, but that now it balances at close to $120. Oil
prices today have fallen far below that, with Brent near $100 and U.S. crude less than $90. The
farther oil prices fall, the more pressure is placed on Putins budget, and the harder it is for him
to keep spreading oil wealth to the greater population through the government. With a large
swath of the populace angered by his re-election to the nations presidency in March, and
protests erupting on the streets of Moscow, Putin can ill-afford a significant blow to the
economy, or his ability to use government resources to firm up his popularity.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
Filger 9 (Sheldon, Correspondent Huffington Post, Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free
Fall Contraction, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)

In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that
is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of
the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both
intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect
that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at great cost
after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are
occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries.
Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev
are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced
to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise
cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out
of the question, the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be
for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then
the economic context. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from
superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of
sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the
prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing
social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national
security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown
in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates
put out by the U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic
Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating
political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces
responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time,
leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist
organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how
secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the
Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.



T
A. Interpretation economic engagement requires expanding bilateral
economic relations
Kahler, 6 - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of
California, San Diego (M., Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on
the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p.
523-541, Sage Publications)

Economic engagement - a policy of deliberately expanding economic ties with an adversary in
order to change the behavior of the target state and improve bilateral political relations - is a
subject of growing interest in international relations. Most research on economic statecraft emphasizes coercive policies such as
economic sanctions. This emphasis on negative forms of economic statecraft is not without justification: the use of economic
sanctions is widespread and well documented, and several quantitative studies have shown that adversarial relations between
countries tend to correspond to reduced, rather than enhanced, levels of trade (Gowa, 1994; Pollins, 1989). At the same time,
however, relatively little is known about how often strategies of economic engagement are deployed: scholars disagree on this
point, in part because no database cataloging instances of positive economic statecraft exists (Mastanduno, 2003). Beginning with
the classic work of Hirschman (1945), most studies of economic engagement have been limited to the policies of great powers
(Mastanduno, 1992; Davis, 1999; Skalnes, 2000; Papayoanou & Kastner, 1999/2000; Copeland, 1999/2000; Abdelal & Kirshner,
1999/2000). However, engagement policies adopted by South Korea and one other state examined in this study, Taiwan,
demonstrate that engagement is not a strategy limited to the domain of great power politics and that it may be more widespread
than previously recognized.
This means the plan has to be government-to-government not private
economic engagement
Daga, 13 - director of research at Politicas Publicas para la Libertad, in Bolivia, and a visiting
senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation (Sergio, Economics of the 2013-2014 Debate
Topic:
U.S. Economic Engagement Toward Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela, National Center for Policy
Analysis, 5/15, http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Message_to_Debaters_6-7-13.pdf)

Economic engagement between or among countries can take many forms, but this document
will focus on government-to-government engagement through 1) international trade
agreements designed to lower barriers to trade; and 2) government foreign aid; next, we will
contrast government-to-government economic engagement with private economic
engagement through 3) international investment, called foreign direct investment; and 4)
remittances and migration by individuals. All of these areas are important with respect to the
countries mentioned in the debate resolution; however, when discussing economic
engagement by the U.S. federal government, some issues are more important with respect to
some countries than to others.
B. Violation the plan uses an intermediary the BECC

C. Voting issue

1. limits a government limit is the only way to keep the topic manageable otherwise
explodes aff ground and makes topic preparation impossible

2. negative ground formal governmental channels are key to predictable relations disads and
counterplans that test engagement

Neolib
The affirmatives developmental approach to resolving politics has been tried
and failed it only serves to inflict structural violence on populations while
filling the pockets of elites
Nhanenge 11 (Jytte Nhanenge, ecological and social activist, MA in development and MA in
philosophy from the University of South Africa, extremely prominent theorist in development
studies, 2011, Ecofeminism: Towards Integrating the Concerns of Women, Poor People, and
Nature into Development, pp 19-22) gz
The official intention with establishing the development program in
the South was to increase economic growth assumed necessary to
alleviate poverty. However, there is no evidence that absolute poverty
is decreasing; rather the reverse is the case. In addition, economic
growth is declining. For economic growth and for almost all other
development indicators, the 20 years as from 1980 to 2000 of the
current form of economic globalization, have shown a clear decline in
progress as compared with the previous two decades. In sub-Saharan Africa, per
capita income fell by almost 25 percent during the 1980s. Investment has decreased with 50 percent, and export
has decreased by 45 percent since 1980. The worlds low-income countries (2.4 billion people), account for just 2.4
percent of world export. External debt has risen from 10 billion USD in 1972 to 130 billion USD in 1987.
Presently the Third World debt is around 500 billion USD. According
to Shah, for every one USD the South receives in aid, it spends over
twenty-five USD on debt repayment. In the poorest countries, it is
commonly the people that did not enjoy the money, who are likely to
pay the debt. Many development commentators find that lack of development is not causing these figures,
rather development itself has brought about such impoverishment: when
development turns natural resources, which provide a large number of
people with decent subsistence livelihood, into industrial raw
materials that benefit relatively few, then development creates poverty.
(Ekins 1992; Naidoo 2009; Shah 2009b.) When development projects use the lands,
soils, and waters of traditional people to produce commercial crop and
industrial food for the market, then traditional people cannot anymore
live from their natural resources. Moreover, major development
projects often include removal of people from their traditional society
into another social constellation with different norms where they
cannot participate. The outcome of traditional peoples exposure to
development is that they lose all, which gave meaning to them in their
lives. Before development disposed them, they were not poor. They
lived modest but self-sustaining lives from their environment. Their
communities also considered them useful and productive members.
However, when development diverted natural resources towards
economic growth, people became poor and their natural resources
became exhausted. From this, it follows that development destroys wholesome
and sustainable lifestyles, creates scarcity of basic needs, excludes an
increasing number of people from their entitlement to food, and
generates real poverty or misery. Seen in this way, development is a threat
for the survival of the great majority. Rather that being a strategy for
poverty alleviation, development is consequently creating poverty and
environmental destruction. (Ekins 1992; Shiva 1989, 1990.) One example is the World
Bank sponsored Narmada Valley Project in Indias states of Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The proposed two large dams will
displace 200,000 mainly tribal people, with no prospect of giving them
fertile land elsewhere. The organization Survival International suggests that the Indian government
has not identified land for resettlement because there is no land available. Other people occupy
almost all of the cultivatable land in the region; the remaining land is
too poor for permanent farming. These people will therefore become
development refugees living in the slumps of Bombay, like so many
before them. Beneficiaries from the dam will be the better off
landowners, who will receive water for irrigation. The hydro-electricity
produced by the dam will benefit the industries and the urban middle
class. Experience shows that the wealth, the increased productivity will
create, does not trickledown to the poor. Rather the difference between
rich and poor will increase and poverty will intensify. Provision of
drinking water meant to benefit the poorest people in the most arid
lands was a major justification for the dams. It is highly unlikely that
the dam will ever deliver this necessity. (Ekins 1992; Elliot 1994) In 1990, some
70 ongoing projects of the World Bank were forcibly displacing 1.5
million people. In almost all the cases, the dispossessed will end up
impoverished. This is because the so-called resettlement and
rehabilitation process is highly inadequate. In Indonesia, the Kedung
Ombo dam displaced 20,000 without compensation. The 12,500
dispossessed of the Ruzizi II dam on the Zaire/Rwanda border received
inadequate compensation. Another example is Kenyas Kiambere
hydroelectric project. BBC News showed the project in April 2005. For
the television presenter the project was an example of how
development alleviates poverty by giving local people energy as a way
out of their poverty. Nevertheless, according to Ekins the project
displaced 6,000 local people without compensation. (Ekins, Hillman, and
Hutchison 1992.) In order to justify the centralization of traditional peoples natural resources the governments
argue that industrialization will not only use the natural resources but also provide jobs and thus income for
peoples survival. However, this is only a theoretical model. Often industrialists cannot use
the labor of the indigenous people, who in a modern perception are
unskilled, and who frequently are also illiterate. Hence, what
industries want is to use the fields, forests, fishes, and rivers on which
the people subsist. Thus, in the name of progress and development, the
governments appropriate these resources, hand them over to owners
of industries, who turn them into market goods, which the
dispossessed can never hope to buy. (Ekins, Hillman, and Hutchison 1992.) One should add
that even if these people would get work, employment does not
necessarily generate an escape from poverty. Average wages in the US
fell with 9 percent from 1980 to 1989. In 1987, 31.5 percent of the
working force was receiving poverty level pay. According to the Census
Bureau, median household income in the United States fell to 50,303
USD in 2008, a drop of 3.6 percent. This is the biggest annual drop
seen since the government started keeping records in 1947. In Africa, it
is also common that farmers and industries employ people as daily
labors. In this way, they can pay salaries that are below the official
minimum level. The exploitation of poor people, by rich people is a
widespread practice in African countries. Hence, the profit from industries is not
benefitting workers; the owners direct the profit to themselves and their shareholders. (Dave Manual.com 2009;
Ekins, Hillman, and Hutchison 1992.) The reason why development cannot alleviate
poverty relates to the false trust in the growth and trickle-down
approach. The conventional belief is that economic growth will
generate wealth in society, which eventually will trickle-down to the
poor segment, and thus alleviate poverty. The blind faith in this strategy comes from its
ability to make significant improvements in average life expectancy, infant mortality, literacy, and Gross National
Product. Based on this experience development aid from the North is directed to increase economic growth in the
South. However, what experts overlook, is the models inherent side
effect of inequality. The distribution of the benefits is extremely
uneven. The result is that people with the most desperate needs
experience virtually no improvement in their living conditions. (Trainer
1997.) The growth strategy has the aim to maximize the rate of growth of
business turnover i.e. to increase investment, sales, exports, and GNP,
as fast as possible. The economic experts assume that the increased
wealth this produces, the capitalists will re-invest in society; this will
then further increase productivity, and will trickle-down and enrich
even the poorest. In reality, very little wealth ever trickles down. The
strategy does result in a rapid increase of national wealth, but those
who are already rich get almost all of it. The reason that the wealth
generated will flow into production of goods, which are attractive for
the high-income earners and for export to the rich countries. Thus, the
wrong industries will be set up in the South. Rather than producing
simple tools, cheap housing, and clean water, all of which are helpful
for poor people, capitalists invest their resources into export
plantations or car factories. In addition, the rich people in the South
often want to spend their money on Western lifestyles. They therefore
import Western consumer goods, rather investing their wealth into
social production. This will not give livelihoods to poor people. Their
choice oppositely gives income to the North. Thus, paradoxically,
development aid ends up benefitting the Southern elite and the rich
countries in the North, which provided the initial aid, rather than the
poor people in the country who received the aid. Consequently, the growth and
trickle-down strategy is on a head-on collision course with anything that one can call an appropriate development
strategy (Ekins 1992; Trainer 1997.) In this way, development creates a cycle that is
exploitative of poor people in poor countries: First rich countries give
aid to poor countries. Secondly, the aid benefits activities relating
mainly to the middle-class and the elites. Thirdly, these people spend
their profit on production of export goods or on imports from the rich
countries. Fourthly, in the process the elite use the natural resources
of subsistence living people. Fifthly, the traditional people loose their
subsistence, and their governments do not compensate them; these
people therefore become destitute and absolute poor. Paul Ekins (1992) calls it
the aid and development cycle. Ted Trainer (1997)calls it inappropriate development.
Neolib threatens humanity
De La Barra, Chilean political activist, international consultant and former UNICEF Latin America Public Policy Advisor 07--
(Ximena, THE DUAL DEBT OF NEOLIBERALISM, Imperialism, Neoliberalism and Social Struggles in Latin America, 9/1/09, edited by
Dello Bueno and Lara, Brill Online)//AS
The currently prevailing neoliberal development model has brought with it various technological
advances and economic and commercial growth. However, these results ultimately benefit fewer and
fewer people while augmenting social inequality, injustices, and promoting serious social and
ethical setbacks. It is definitely not eradicating poverty On the contrary, it creates conditions for a
growing tendency towards political, economic and social exclusion for the majority of the
worlds population. The model exacerbates poverty, social disparities, ecological degradation,
violence and social disintegration. Loss of governability flows from its systematic logic of
emphasising an ever cheaper labour force, the reduction ofsocial benefits, the disarticulation
and destruction of labourorganisations,and the elimination of labour and ecological regulation
(de la Barra 1997). Inthis way, it consolidates a kind of cannibalism known as social dumping that seeks
to lower costs below the value of social reproduction rather than organising a process of
progressive social accumulation. For most of Latin Americaand the Caribbean, the present minimum wage levels only
allow for a portionof the basic consumption package needed by working people (Bossio 2002).At present, the global income gap
between the 10% poorest portion of theworlds population and the wealthiest 10% has grown to be 1 to 103 (UNDP2005). According
to this same source, around 2.5 billion people, almost halfof humanity, lives on less than US$ 2. per day (considered the poverty
level),while 1.2 billion of these people live on less than US$ 1. per day (consideredthe level of extreme poverty).Given its neoliberal
character, globalisation failed to produce the benefits that were touted. Indeed, the process has
greatly harmed the most vulnerable social sectors produced by the previous phase of
capitalist development.The lack of social and ethical objectives in the current globalisation processhas resulted in benefits
only in those countries where a robust physical andhuman infrastructure exists, where redistributive social policies are the norm,and
where fair access to markets and strong regulatory entities are in place.Where such conditions do not exist, globalisation has
led to stagnation and marginalisation, with declining health and educational levels of its
children,especially among the poor. Some regions, including Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Sub-Saharan
Africa, and more recently, Latin America andthe Caribbean, as well as some countries within regions and some personswithin
countries (poor children and adolescents, rural inhabitants and urbanslum dwellers, indigenous peoples, children of illiterate
women, illegal immigrants, etc.) have remained mostly excluded (UNICEF 2001).
Neoliberalism is creating its own downfallthe alternative is to reject the
neoliberal policies of the aff and allow it to fall
Lafer, political economist and is an Associate Professor at the University of Oregon's Labor Education and Research Center 04
(Gordon, Neoliberalism by other means: the war on terror at home and abroad, New Political Science 26:3, 2004, Taylor and
Francis)//AS
Finally, the global justice movement that came together in the Seattle 1999 protests against
the WTO marked the potential birth of a massive and powerful new movement challenging
corporate prerogatives. It is easy to overestimate the importance of the Seattle protests.The few days of unity did not undo
the many differences between the various protest groups. And the months following Seattle were lled with where do we go from
here? discussions that never achieved a satisfactory answer. It is not clear that the coalition that assembled in
Seattle deserves to be called a movement. However, even as a rst step with an uncertain
future, the import of these protests was potentially earth-shaking. Essentially, the anti-WTO
protests undid ssures that had fractured progressive organizations for at least four decades.
At least since the Vietnam war, the history of whatever might be called the American left has been primarily characterized by
fragmentation. In place of the Old Lefts unity around class, the New Left led to multiple and often conicting agendas organized
around various forms of identity politics. While feminist, civil rights and labor organizations might come together around specic
political issues, the alliances were generally short-lived and supercial. Most important from an economic point of view, the labor
movement throughout the 1970s and 1980s was largely alienated from the most energetic social change movements. The
incredible accomplishment of Seattle was to forge a coalition that overcame these differences
in opposition to a common enemy. For union members, Seattle was possible because 20 years of jobs going overseas
and management invoking the threat to relocate as a strategy for slashing wages had made globalization a gut-level rank and le
issue. Thus the process of neoliberalism nally created its own antithesis in a labor movement
that was ready to join with youth, environmentalists and immigrant organizations in ghting
the power. From a corporate viewpoint, the divisions that for 30 years had so effectively kept the various parts of the left
from coming together were threatening to dissolve.


Politics
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Obamas PC and focus key to overcome GOP opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.
Alternative energy will drain political capital strong partisan divide
Pew Research Center 11 nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues,
attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling,
demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research (Pew
Research Center for the People and the Press, Partisan Divide Over Alternative Energy Widens:
Republicans View Government Energy Investments as Unnecessary, 11/10/11,
http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/10/partisan-divide-over-alternative-energy-
widens/)//AY

Since April 2009, there has been a 30-point decline in the percentage of Republicans and
Republican leaners supporting more federal funding for research into alternative energy technologies.
Currently, 53% favor this policy, down from 82% in April 2009. There has been little change in opinions among
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Currently, 83% of Democrats favor increased funding for research into alternative
energy technologies.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The
Washington Post, conducted Nov. 3-6 among 1,005 adults, finds that a narrow majority of the public (52%)
thinks that government investment is necessary to develop new energy technology. About four-in-
ten (39%) say that businesses will produce needed energy technology without government support.
On this measure there also is a large partisan divide. Two-thirds (68%) of Democrats and
Democratic leaners say government investment in new energy is necessary. Most Republicans
and GOP leaners (59%) say businesses will produce technology without government investment.
Overall, somewhat fewer now say that government investment is needed for the development of
new energy technology than did so in April 2009. At that time, 58% viewed government investment as necessary and 32%
said businesses were able to produce needed technology without government investment.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.




Relations
Focusing on economics cant overcome security alt causes
CNN 5/2 (Catherine E. Schoichet, 5/2/13, U.S., Mexican presidents push deeper economic
ties; security issues still key, http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/02/world/americas/mexico-
obama-visit//lm)
Two issues -- security and immigration -- often get too much attention when it comes to
talking about the U.S.-Mexico relationship, U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday.
Now, Obama said, it's time to forge deeper economic connections to create more jobs and
more trade on both sides of the border. "That's the focus of my visit," he told reporters after
meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto in the country's capital. But even as
Obama and Pea Nieto pushed to shift the tone more toward trade and economics,
security issues loomed large over Thursday's meeting. Pea Nieto said his government
remains committed to fighting organized crime, but that the United States and Mexico must
"cooperate on the basis of mutual respect, to be more efficient in our security strategy that
we are implementing in Mexico." Obama stressed that the countries will continue to
cooperate closely on security, but he didn't specify how. "I agreed to continue our close
cooperation on security, even as that nature of that close cooperation will evolve," he said.
It's up to the Mexican people, Obama said, "to determine their security structures and how it
engages with other nations, including the United States." In the meantime, he said, the
United States remains committed to reducing the demand for drugs north of the border, and
the southward flow of illegal guns and cash that help fuel violence. "I think it's natural that a
new administration here in Mexico is looking carefully at how it's going to approach what is
obviously a serious problem," Obama said, "and we are very much looking forward to
cooperating in any ways that we can to battle organized crime." High-profile cartel
takedowns were a hallmark of former President Felipe Calderon's tenure. Pea Nieto has
vowed to take a different approach, focusing more on education problems and social
inequality that he says fuel drug violence. The details of his policies are still coming into
focus, and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of
the spotlight. Before Obama's arrival, a spate of news reports this week on both sides of the
border detailed changes in how Mexico cooperates with the United States. Under the new
rules, all U.S. requests for collaboration with Mexican agencies will flow through a single
office, Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong told Mexico's state-run Notimex news
agency. It is a drastic change from recent years, when U.S. agents enjoyed widespread
access to their Mexican counterparts. Critics have expressed concerns that Pea Nieto's
government will turn a blind eye to cartels or negotiate with them -- something he
repeatedly denied on the campaign trail last year. On Tuesday -- two days before Obama's
arrival -- his government arrested the father-in-law of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, head of
Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and one of the country's most-wanted drug lords. Speaking to
reporters after his meeting with Obama on Thursday, Pea Nieto emphasized the importance
of reducing violence, and also the importance of Mexico's relationship with the United States
extending beyond the drug war. "We don't want to make this relationship targeted on one
single issue," he said. "We want to place particular emphasis on the potential in the
economic relationship between Mexico and the United States." To achieve that goal, Pea
Nieto said, the presidents agreed to create a new high-level group to discuss economic and
trade relations between the two nations. The group, which will include Cabinet ministers
from both countries and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, will have its first meeting this fall,
Pea Nieto said. Imports and exports between the United States and Mexico totaled nearly
$500 billion last year, and before Obama's arrival officials on both sides of the border said
economic relations would be a focal point during the U.S. president's visit. "When the
economy in Mexico has grown, and people have opportunity, a lot of our problems are
solved, or we have the resources to solve them," Obama said Thursday. The emphasis on the
economy Thursday was a significant shift, said Jason Marczak, director of policy at the
Americas Society and Council of the Americas. "
Only immigration reform significantly changes Mexico relations economics
measure cant hurt relations
Hakim et. al. 13 (Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the
Inter-American Dialogue Andrs Rozental, member of the Advisor board, president of Rozental
& Asociados in Mexico City and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and Laura Carlsen,
director of the Americas program at the Center for International Policy, Latin America Advisor,
February 1, 2013 Have Prospects for U.S.-Mexican Relations Improved?
http://www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=3222) DF
A: Andrs Rozental, member of the Advisor board, president of Rozental & Asociados in
Mexico City and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution: "The Mexico-U.S. relationship
won't substantially change; there are too many ongoing issues to expect any major shift in
what has become a very close and cooperative bilateral partnership in economic, security
and social aspects. There will be a change of emphasis from the Mexican side as far as the
security relationship goes, with Pea Nieto's declared intention to focus much more on the
economy and public safety. He has already moved away from the constant statements made
by his predecessor extolling the number of criminals apprehended and 'successes' in the
fight against organized crime. The change of message comes as a relief to many Mexicans
tired of hearing about violence and crime on a daily basis. There are two issues on the
bilateral agenda, however, that portend significant changes if President Obama is able to
fulfill his latest commitments: gun control and immigration reform. The latter seems to be
headed toward a bipartisan agreement that might fundamentally change the situation for
the thousands of Mexicans who are in the United States without proper documents. If
Congress passes a comprehensive reform that allows them to normalize their situation and
have a path to legal residency and eventual citizenship, it would have a huge positive
impact on the relationship. As for gun control, Mexico would obviously favor a total ban on
the sale and possession of assault weapons as the best way to prevent them from crossing
the border, but even universal background checks and limits on the number and type of
weapons an individual can purchase would be a welcome development. On trade ties,
Mexico reached a quarter trillion dollars of total exports and imports in 2012--a hefty
portion of that unprecedented amount was with the United States. As Mexico becomes an
increasingly important part of the global supply chain and U.S. companies continue to
invest heavily south of the border, the economic relationship has nowhere to go but up.
And if Pea Nieto is able to fundamentally reform the country's energy sector, there
promises to be even more investment."

Economic collapse does not cause war prefer empirics
Ferguson 6 (Niall, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard
University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European
Studies. He is also a Senior Reseach Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior
Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct)
Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in
modern historiography links the Great Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of
World War II. But that simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the war in
Europe only after its economy had recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great
Depression were taken over by fascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression.
In fact, no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as
a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the causes rather than the
consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by
wars.

Competitiveness
Most recent evidence shows US retains economic competitiveness stocks and
innovation.
Lopez 5/30 Los Angeles Times business writer and labor market analyst (Ricardo, U.S.
economy the most competitive in the world, report says, 5/30/13; <
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/30/business/la-fi-mo-us-economy-most-competitive-
20130530>)//Beddow
Thanks to a rebounding stock market and innovation coming from American companies, the
U.S. has regained the top spot as the most competitive economy in the world, according to an
annual ranking by Swiss business school IMD. The report released Wednesday ranks 60
economies around the world and found that the United States has made strong enough strides
in its economic recovery to reclaim the top spot. The next top economies are Switzerland (No.
2), Hong Kong (No. 3), Sweden (No. 4) and Singapore (No. 5). "While the euro zone remains
stalled, the robust comeback of the U.S. to the top of the competitiveness rankings and better
news from Japan have revived the austerity debate," said Stphane Garelli, director of the IMD
World Competitiveness Center. "Structural reforms are unavoidable, but growth remains a
prerequisite for competitiveness." Garelli noted in the report that social unrest among
Europeans over austerity measures has hurt some European countries in the annual rankings.
"The harshness of austerity measures too often antagonizes the population," Garelli said. "In the
end, countries need to preserve social cohesion to deliver prosperity." Though the U.S.
unemployment rate remains elevated at 7.5%, the country has some long-term advantages
such as technology, education and advanced infrastructure, the report said. Among Asian
economies, China and Japan are becoming more competitive. In Japan's case, robust financial
stimulus pursued by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to combat deflation have propelled the
country's currency and stock market. South of the border, Mexico's economy has become more
competitive. The country has seen an expanding middle class and relatively strong growth in its
gross domestic product. But Mexico's rise in rankings "needs to be confirmed over time and by
the continuous implementation of structural reforms," the report noted. IMD, a top business
school in Switzerland, has published the annual rankings since 1989.
the law of comparative advantage proves that the loss of competitiveness
they solve is actually just a more specialized division of labor that would
strengthen US economic productivity.
Reisman 06 - Professor Emeritus of Economics at Pepperdine and Senior Fellow at the
Goldwater Institute (George, Globalization: The Long-Run Big Picture 11/18/06;
http://mises.org/daily/2361/)//Beddow
The changing, dynamic nature of comparative advantage is something that has apparently
escaped Gomory and Baumol. They appear to believe that comparative advantage is something
that once present should thereafter be fixed in its specifics for all time, and when they observe
the repeated contradiction of this belief by the facts of reality, they describe the contradictions
as matters of historical accident that are independent of market forces. Thus, they write: "In the
wine-wool world, market forces, driven by demand and natural advantages, led the world to a
single outcome. In today's world, market forces do not select a single, predetermined outcome,
instead they tend to preserve the established pattern, whatever that pattern may be."[44]
Gomory and Baumol fail to realize that what the market forces are preserving is precisely
comparative advantage and that the comparative advantage was established by market forces
emanating from innovation, including that entailed in responses to changes in circumstances.
(Indeed, they themselves write: "A war may force some country to invest heavily in some
military product, like aircraft, or to develop a chemical industry because the country is cut off
from its traditional supplier. Or a single, farseeing entrepreneur can start a company that
inaugurates an industry."[45] ) At the same time, they complain about the difficulties of entering
into an established industry with high capital requirements and extensive networks of dealers
and suppliers without large-scale government aid,[46] all the while not realizing that what they
are complaining about is nothing other than the difficulties of overcoming someone else's
comparative advantage when there is as yet no market-based reason to do so. But enough of
Gomory and Baumol. It is necessary to turn to the relationship between comparative advantage
and capital accumulation. We have seen that what enables a previously a backward country to
begin to compete successfully with more advanced countries is the investment of capital in its
territory. This serves dramatically to raise the productivity of its labor, which, combined with its
prevailing low level of wage rates, gives it substantially lower costs of production and thus a
corresponding advantage over its competitors in the more advanced countries with their higher
level of wage rates. As rapid capital accumulation proceeds in what has up to now been a
backward country, it becomes a growing supplier in one industry after another, correspondingly
displacing the producers within the countries to which it exports. Thus China and other East
Asian countries now supply us with a major portion of our shoes, clothing, and electronic goods,
and the domestic production of these goods has virtually ceased. Just as in the case of
outsourcing, but on a larger scale, the effect is not unemployment in the United States, but a
redirection of employment, into lines whose expansion is made possible by means of funds
released from the production and purchase of manufactures. Thus, by virtue of being able to
buy their shoes, clothing, and electronic goods more cheaply, people have more money
available for such things as the purchase of homes and the making of home improvements, for
travel and leisure, and all manner of other services. And it is in these lines that new
employment opportunities appear. The consequence is that there is no tendency toward a
higher rate of unemployment as the result of foreign competition, but merely a change in the
lines in which our comparative advantage now lies and thus a corresponding change in specific
parts of the economic system in which we are employed. If not thwarted by opposing
developments, such as the rising costs imposed by environmental legislation and other
government intervention, the effect of getting more and more of our manufactures more
economically from abroad than we can produce them at home is to raise our standard of
living. We no more suffer from the cheapness of foreign labor in producing the things we buy
than we do from the cheapness of using machinery in the production of the things we buy. In
responding to the changing pattern of comparative advantage a critical factor is the availability
of newly accumulated capital to be invested in the lines into which labor must now move and
which must take the place of the capital lost in lines of production in which we no longer have a
comparative advantage. To the extent that government policies of budget deficits, inflation, and
progressive income and inheritance taxation prevent the accumulation of this new capital and of
the further, additional capital that economic progress requires, there is a genuine economic
problem, one that does represent a threat to the standard of living of the average American
citizen. Any form of government regulation that serves to reduce output per unit of capital
invested is also a threat to capital accumulation and the domestic standard of living. As we have
seen, capital goods are produced by means of the application of labor and existing capital
goods.[47] Anything that reduces the output of a given quantity of labor and capital goods or,
what is equivalent, requires the application of more labor and capital goods to accomplish the
same result, serves, other things being equal, to reduce the production of capital goods.
Environmental legislation that requires substantial additional capital investment but results in
no additional output thus operates to reduce the ability to produce and accumulate capital
goods.[48] In sum, the real threat to the American standard of living comes not from foreign
competition but from misguided economic policies of the American government, enacted on the
basis of the mistaken beliefs and plain ignorance of millions upon millions of American voters
about what benefits them and what harms them economically. Historically, what underlay
America's pattern of comparative advantage, including its ability to have wage rates far higher
than those prevailing in the rest of the world and yet not to be widely undersold, was its
radically higher productivity of labor. The productivity of labor in most of the rest of the world
could not remotely approach that of the United States because the conditions required for
substantial capital investment in most of the world were lacking. What was lacking were the
security of property, economic freedom, and the enforcement of contracts. In their absence,
there was no significant prospect of profit from investing in the backward countries. What is
different now is that in important parts of the world the conditions for foreign investment have
become much more propitious. China in particular, at least in several major provinces, has gone
from a bastion of communism to a form of capitalism. The security of property, economic
freedom, and the enforcement of contracts are now present in China to an extent that has
made substantial investment, foreign and domestic, worthwhile. But these necessary conditions
still exist in China in a more or less precarious state and to a substantially lesser degree than
they exist in the United States, and to a radically lesser degree than they would exist in the
United States if the US were once again to adopt the degree of economic liberalism that
characterized most of its history. These fundamental political-cultural advantages of the United
States undoubtedly explain its continuing attraction to foreign investors the world over. If the
United States were once again to become the bastion of economic freedom that it was in the
past, its attractiveness to foreign investors would be substantially further increased. And more
than that, it would benefit far more from any given amount of foreign investment, because
instead of going largely into the financing of US government budget deficits, the foreign
investment would go into building up the actual capital of the country. And, of course, domestic
capital formation would greatly increase and take place at a substantial rate. In addition, capital,
foreign and domestic, invested in the United States would be employed more efficiently and
more productively, thereby bringing about further capital accumulation and tending
progressively to raise the productivity of labor in the United States at a substantially higher rate
than is presently possible. In this way, the United States might retain and even increase the
proportion that its economy represents of the world economy, at least until the time came that
other major countries adopted its degree of respect for property rights and economic freedom. I
confess to being something of an American nationalist. I do not look forward to the United
States declining to a share of the global economy that is commensurate merely with its relative
population. Restoration of America's traditional policy of economic liberalism, indeed, a more
consistent and complete implementation of that policy than was achieved historically, would
serve to postpone that day. If and when that day finally came, it would come only because the
whole world had finally become as "American" in its values and institutions as the United
States itself originally set out to be. At that point, American nationalism would be redundant
and cease to have any purpose. Whether or not globalization will continue and reach its
ultimate potential depends on the global acceptance of America's traditional values of private
property rights and economic freedom. The once seemingly insuperable obstacle of socialism
has been swept away. Environmentalism, which is merely an enfeebled, primitivized
reincarnation of socialism's hatred of capitalism, remains. It too will need to be swept aside if
the world's presently backward countries are to have access to the raw materials they must
have in order to achieve a modern standard of living. And, of course, it will also be necessary for
the world's rogue states to be deprived of the ability to inflict harm on their neighbors or in any
other significant way to harm the further development and maintenance of the global division
of labor. If these things can be accomplished and if the philosophy of economic liberalism can
take hold across the world and further intensify in the areas in which it already has taken hold,
then for the first time in human history a truly global economic system will be achieved, bringing
unprecedented prosperity and economic progress everywhere.

L.A. Influence
US influence is high and resilient
Ben-Ami 6/5 former Israeli foreign minister and internal security minister, Vice President of
the Toledo International Center for Peace (Shlomo, Is the US Losing Latin America?, 6/5/13; <
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-new-nature-of-us-influence-in-latin-
america-by-shlomo-ben-ami>, Project Syndicate)//Beddow
Yet it would be a mistake to regard Latin Americas broadening international relations as
marking the end of US preeminence. Unlike in the bygone era of superpowers and captive
nations, American influence can no longer be defined by the ability to install and depose leaders
from the US embassy. To believe otherwise is to ignore how international politics has changed
over the last quarter-century. A continent once afflicted by military takeovers has slowly but
surely implanted stable democracies. Responsible economic management, poverty-reduction
programs, structural reforms, and greater openness to foreign investment have all helped to
generate years of low-inflation growth. As a result, the region was able to withstand the ravages
of the global financial crisis. The US not only encouraged these changes, but has benefited
hugely from them. More than 40% of US exports now go to Mexico and Central and South
America, the USs fastest-growing export destination. Mexico is Americas second-largest
foreign market (valued at $215 billion in 2012). US exports to Central America have risen by 94%
over the past six years; imports from the region have risen by 87%. And the US continues to be
the largest foreign investor on the continent. American interests are evidently well served by
having democratic, stable, and increasingly prosperous neighbors. This new reality also demands
a different type of diplomacy one that recognizes the diverse interests of the continent. For
example, an emerging power such as Brazil wants more respect on the world stage. Obama
blundered when he dismissed a 2010 deal on Irans nuclear program mediated by Brazil and
Turkey (despite having earlier endorsed the talks). Other countries might benefit from US efforts
to promote democracy and socioeconomic ties, as Obamas recent trips to Mexico and Costa
Rica show. Trade relations provide another all-important lever. President Sebastian Piera of
Chile visited the White House earlier this week to discuss, among other things, the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP), an ambitious trade agreement that might encompass New Zealand,
Singapore, Australia, Mexico, Canada, and Japan. President Ollanta Humala of Peru is expected
in the White House next week, while Vice President Joe Biden is scheduled to visit Latin America
soon after. Language and culture matter, too. Given the extraordinary growth of Latinos
influence in the US, it is almost inconceivable that America could lose its unique status in the
region to China or Russia, let alone Iran. Gone are the days when military muscle and the
politics of subversion could secure US influence in Latin America or anywhere else. A world
power today is one that can combine economic vigor and a popular culture with global outreach
on the basis of shared interests. The US is better positioned than any other power in this
respect, particularly when it comes to applying these advantages in its immediate vicinity.
Energy Poverty
1. Mexican energy poverty is low and decreasing almost of
population accesses energy
IEF 09 (International Energy Forum, Reducing Energy Poverty through Cooperation and
Partnership, IEF Symposium on Energy Poverty, December 2009,
http://www.ief.org/_resources/files/content/events/ief-symposium-on-energy-
poverty/background-paper.pdf)//AY
Despite the alarming figures for energy poverty worldwide, significant efforts are underway to
reduce the number of people suffering from a lack of access to modern energy services.
Although a decidedly international problem, energy poverty can be improved through domestic
energy policy reform. For example, Mexico identified energy poverty as an obstacle to its
development in the 1990s and made access to electricity a budget priority. Through the 1990s,
Mexico put over $2 billion toward electrification, drawing heavily on international capital and
donor markets. As part of a larger initiative to reform and redraw its energy sector, from oil to
power lines, Mexico managed to eradicate much of its energy poverty. As of 2006, over 95% of
Mexicos population was enjoying regular access to electricity.13 The Mexican example
demonstrates that access can be achieved through comprehensive reform and dedicated
funding.
Their card even admits that 97% of the population has energy their
entire advantage is focused on just 3% of the population.
2. Squo solar power initiatives solve lack of access for that 3%.
Cichon 12 (Meg, associate editor of Renewable Energy World, 12-14-12, Clear Horizon for
Mexican Solar, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/12/clear-
horizon-for-mexican-solar)//GZ
Most solar development in Mexico has been focused on small scale, off-grid
rural electrification for the 3% of Mexicans without grid access. More than
80,000 rural systems have already been installed. But interest in developing
larger and utility-scale projects is rising, especially in Northern Mexico. In October,
President Felipe Calderon inaugurated a 1 MW plant in Baja California. Developed by Microm,
the facility provides an experimental model for the CFE, as the first large-scale plant to
connect to the grid. Yet Calderon, while hailing this achievement for Mexico, stressed the need
for more grid-connected residential solar.
Status quo solar power solves lack of access
Cichon 12 (Meg Cichon, associate editor of renewable energy world, 12-14-12, Clear Horizon
for Mexican Solar, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/12/clear-
horizon-for-mexican-solar) gz
Most solar development in Mexico has been focused on small scale, off-
grid rural electrification for the 3% of Mexicans without grid access.
More than 80,000 rural systems have already been installed. But
interest in developing larger and utility-scale projects is rising, especially
in Northern Mexico. In October, President Felipe Calderon inaugurated a 1 MW plant in
Baja California. Developed by Microm, the facility provides an experimental model for the
CFE, as the first large-scale plant to connect to the grid. Yet Calderon, while hailing this
achievement for Mexico, stressed the need for more grid-connected residential solar
So do NGOs and small plants
CFE 12 (Comisin Federal de Electricidad, May 2012, Meeting the Dual Goal of Energy Access
and
Sustainability - CSP Deployment in Mexico,
http://www.esmap.org/sites/esmap.org/files/CFE_Meeting_dual_goal_Mexico.pdf) gz
The gap between Population Electrification Rate and Communities
Electrification Rate indicates that Communities without access are
disperse and dont have large population. Taking this into account CFE
jointly with State Governments started in 2011 an aggressive
campaign to bring electricity to these communities by using small
photovoltaic plants (30 KWs). Additionally a joint effort with NGOs is
being deployed to bring single house installations to remote
communities.
Mexican energy poverty is low and decreasing 95% of population accesses
energy
IEF 09 world's largest gathering of energy ministers; includes IEA and OPEC countries, and
key international actors such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa; IEF
countries account for more than 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand
(International Energy Forum, Reducing Energy Poverty through Cooperation and Partnership,
IEF Symposium on Energy Poverty, December 2009,
http://www.ief.org/_resources/files/content/events/ief-symposium-on-energy-
poverty/background-paper.pdf)//AY
Despite the alarming figures for energy poverty worldwide, significant efforts are underway to
reduce the number of people suffering from a lack of access to modern energy services.
Although a decidedly international problem, energy poverty can be improved through domestic
energy policy reform. For example, Mexico identified energy poverty as an obstacle to its
development in the 1990s and made access to electricity a budget priority. Through the 1990s,
Mexico put over $2 billion toward electrification, drawing heavily on international capital and
donor markets. As part of a larger initiative to reform and redraw its energy sector, from oil to
power lines, Mexico managed to eradicate much of its energy poverty. As of 2006, over 95% of
Mexicos population was enjoying regular access to electricity.13 The Mexican example
demonstrates that access can be achieved through comprehensive reform and dedicated
funding.

Separating values is impossible consequences must be considered alongside
morality and rights.
Long 06 fellow at the Mises Institute, professor of philosophy at Auburn University, president
of the Molinari Institute, and panel of the Center for a Stateless Society (Roderick T., Economics
and Its Ethical Assumptions, 5/20/06; http://mises.org/daily/2103)//Beddow
However, I also think there are good praxeological reasons not to think that rights are
completely independent of utility. And that's because given precisely the view I discussed
earlier, according to which whenever you're doing trade-offs between different things, where
you've got different ends, you have to regard them as different parts of an overarching end.
Well, unless rights are the only thing you care about, the only value you have and I've
sometimes told Walter that that's his view (although it isn't really, but it's fun to say that)
unless rights are the only values you have, then you have to say: here are a bunch of values,
there's the content of justice or rights, but there are also these other values, and they all have to
fit together. And if all your values have to fit together, then it doesn't really make sense to
think that you can sort of separate one off and completely decide it without paying attention to
any of the rest of them. I think each part of your value system has to have its content at least
responsive to the other parts . And this is what the Greeks called "unity of virtue." Now people
often say that the unity of virtue just means that if you have one virtue, you have to have them
all; but I think the real core of the view is that the content of any one virtue is partly determined
by, or responsive to, the content of the other virtues. Your account of what justice requires can't
be completely independent of your account of what courage requires, or your account of what
generosity requires, or your account of any other virtue.


Plan cant solve gendered aspect of energy poverty broader agenda is key
Parikh et al., 99 (Jyoti et al., writers for Economic and Political Weekly, citing numerous studies; Economic and Political
Weekly, Vol. 34, No. 9, pages 539-544, 5 March 1999, http://www.jstor.org/stable/4407707?seq=3)//HO
The pollutants released due to use of bio-fuels for cooking in traditional stoves cause
serious health problems like acute respiratory infections, chronic obstructive lung disease,
lung cancer, tuberculosis, etc. Women and children below five years of age are most
affected,- as they are regularly and severely exposed. There is a-need to pay more
attention to the plight of hundreds and millions of women and children living daily with
exposure to Indoor air pollution. Many actions are required to address this
air pollution. A short- and medium-term solution is to design and
disseminate efficient smokeless stoves in a cost-effective manner.
Effective price of such a successfully installed stove is approximate Rs 2,000 with a
lifetime of 15 years, which may seem to be very high as compared to stoves currently,
installed under government programmes. But it should be noted that these less expensive
stoves have a high failure rate and a very small lifetime, and do not offer good efficiency .
While improved stoves reduce the pollution exposure, they do not
eliminate it. In the long term clean fuels would be needed not only to
reduce pollution but also to provide convenient and controllable
fuels by increasing availability of clean fuels in rural and remote
areas. Since LPG, propane, butane are in limited supply and require heavy initial
investment for bottling plants and cylinders, and availability of electricity is not reliable
and economical in the rural areas, next best alternative is kerosene. There is a need to
change the petroleum product policy in a manner to make kerosene
available, to the people who are willing and are able to pay for it,. in
the open market at an affordable price. Government should reformulate its
policy to make parallel marketing system for kerosene effective and
successful. This will reduce the burden of diseases suffered by a large
number of women and children, and will also ease the pressure on forests and
other bio-fuel resources. When the segment, which can pay, is dealt with the poor who
cannot afford to buy commercial fuels may have less pressure. More surveys and
analytical work is needed to devise cost effective strategies and comparison of alternatives.
High occurrence of indoor air' pollution signifies inequalities in environmental policies,
energy policies and health policies.

Heg
No impact to heg decline empirics.
Walt 11 professor international affairs at Harvard Universitys John F. Kennedy School of
Government. Dude, its Stephen Walt (Stephen M., Rethinking Retrenchment: Can the United
States do Less and Do Better?, 7/8/11, Foreign Policy,
http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/08/rethinking_retrenchment)//Beddow
If you're intrigued by these larger questions, you should definitely read Paul MacDonald and
Joseph Parent's "Graceful Decline: The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment," from
the Spring 2011 issue of International Security. Based on a comprehensive survey of 18 cases of
great power decline (defined as situations where a great power's ordinal ranking of share of
economic power changes for the worse), MacDonald and Parent show that declining powers are
usually able to adjust their strategic commitments without significant harmful consequences.
Money quotation: Faced with diminishing resources, great powers moderate their foreign policy
ambitions and offer concessions in areas of lesser strategic value. Contrary to the pessimistic
conclusions of critics, retrenchment neither requires aggression nor invites predation. Great
powers are able to rebalance their commitments through compromise, rather than conflict. In
these ways, states respond to penury the same way they do to plenty: they seek to adopt
policies that maximize security given available means. Far from being a hazardous policy,
retrenchment can be successful. States that retrench often regain their position in the hierarchy
of great powers. Of the fifteen great powers that adopted retrenchment in response to acute
relative decline, 40 percent managed to recover their ordinal rank. In contrast, none of the
declining powers that failed to retrench recovered their relative position. If McDonald and
Parent are right, it suggests that Obama & Co. erred when they decided to double down in
Central Asia. After the debacle in Iraq and the 2007 financial crisis, the United States needed to
take bold action to bring its global commitments in line with its resources. Obama wisely kept us
on course out of Iraq (though not that quickly), but an ambitious new team of foreign policy
wonks wanted their turn at running the world and did relatively little to put U.S. grand strategy
on a more sustainable footing. Woodward's account of the debate on Afghanistan suggests that
Obama and a few of his advisors understood the need to retrench in a general way (and Obama
has repeatedly talked about the greater importance of "nation-building" at home) but they were
unable or unwilling to make the hard choices necessary to pull of this adjustment or to impose
that consensus on the entire national security establishment. Retrenchment is going to happen
eventually, I'm sure, just not nearly as fast as it should have.


Terror
No nuke terror low threat, high security
Powell 11 Houston Chronicle writer (Stewart M., Are Potential Terrorists Crossing into
Texas From Mexico?, 12/2/11; < http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Are-
potential-terrorists-crossing-into-Texas-from-2341185.php>)//Beddow
Pakistani officials told Texas' Republican Congressman Michael McCaul on a recent visit to
Karachi that potential operatives from Pakistan, Iran, al-Qaida, the Taliban and the Haqqani
network can obtain visas for Mexico from Mexican diplomatic outposts in Pakistan far more
easily than getting them for the United States, making Mexico a perfect way station. Yet despite
these dire possibilities - including Perry's contention that Hamas and Hezbollah are working in
Mexico to come to the U.S. - experts say such Iranian-financed factions are not crossing the
southwest border. They point instead to the 327 airports and border crossings in the United
States where legitimate or forged passports might be used the same way that 19 hijackers
gained access to carry out the 9/11 attacks. "The last thing these organizations want is to start
out at the border with a high profile criminal act that gets attention," says James Carafano, a
West Point graduate and retired Army lieutenant colonel handling security affairs at the
Heritage Foundation. "They want to be as unobtrusive as possible." Federal law enforcement
agents picked up 445,000 border crossers last year. But only 13 Iranians were taken into
custody, a fraction of the 663 "special interest aliens" from 35 countries detained along the
southwestern border for special U.S. scrutiny. None of the Iranians - indeed none of the 663
"special interest aliens" - has faced federal prosecution on terror-related charges, according to
federal officials. No credible cases The number of Iranians apprehended by U.S. Border Patrol
"has been historically minimal," said a Department of Homeland Security official. "No credible
terrorist threat has been identified, however DHS carefully monitors any potential threats
along the Southwest border and responds accordingly."
No impact to terror
Brzezinski 12 former National Security Adviser (Zbigniew, Strategic Vision:
America and the Crisis of Global Power, 2012;
<http://books.google.com/books?id=rx6KUegdcvoC>)//Beddow
Unlike its impact on the especially vulnerable countries, Americas slide into international
impotence or even into a paralyzing crisis would not significantly affect the scale of international
terrorist activity. Most acts of terrorism are and have been domestic, not international.
Whether in Italy, where in 1978 some 2,000 terrorist acts occurred in a single year, or in
contemporary Pakistan, where the casualties from terrorist killings annually measure in the high
hundreds and where high-level assassinations are commonplace, the sources and targets of
domestic terrorism have been the product of internal conditions. This has been true for over a
hundred years, since political terrorism first appeared as a significant phenomenon in late
nineteenth-century Russia and France. Therefore, a precipitous decline in American power
would not influence the scale of terrorist activities in, for example, India because their
occurrence in the first place relates little to Americas role in the world. Because most domestic
terrorism is rooted in radicalized local or regional political tensions, only changing local
conditions can affect the scale of this type of terrorism.

Drugs
Turn Mexican drug exports key to stimulate the Mexican economy. Successful
drug war causes collapse.
Lange 10 - Reuters journalist, Washington correspondent (Jason, From Spas to Banks, Mexico
Economy Rides On Drugs, 1/22/10; http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/01/22/us-drugs-
mexico-economy-idUSTRE60L0X120100122)//Beddow
But the United States contends that the company in Zapopan is not what it seems. The U.S.
Treasury put Grupo Collins on a black list in 2008, saying the firm supplies a small drug cartel in
western Mexico with chemicals needed to make methamphetamines. Grupo Collins, which has
denied any connection to organized crime, is one of dozens under suspicion of laundering
money for the nation's booming drug business, whose growing economic impact now pervades
just about every level of Mexican life. Mexican cartels, which control most of the cocaine and
methamphetamine smuggled into the United States, bring an estimated $25 billion to $40 billion
into Mexico from their global operations every year. To put that in perspective: Mexico
probably made more money in 2009 moving drugs than it did exporting oil, its single biggest
legitimate foreign currency earner. From the white Caribbean beaches of Cancun to violent
towns on the U.S. border and the beauty parlors of Mexico City's wealthy suburbs, drug cash is
everywhere in Mexico. It has even propped up the country's banking system, helping it ride
out the financial crisis and aiding the country's economy. Smuggled into Mexico mostly from
the United States in $100 bills, narco money finds its way onto the books of restaurants,
construction firms and bars as drug lords try to legitimize their cash and prevent police from
tracing it. "Mexico is saturated with this money," said George Friedman, who heads geopolitical
analysis firm Stratfor. In western Mexico, drug money started pouring into Zapopan and nearby
Guadalajara in the 1980s as the Sinaloa cartel bought hospitals and real estate, said Martin
Barron, a researcher at the institute that trains Mexico's organized crime prosecutors. Now
residents in the region known in Mexico for its piety say drug smugglers barely make an effort to
disguise themselves. A strip of fancy boutiques in Zapopan was financed with drug money, says
Jaime Ramirez, a local newspaper columnist who has been reporting on the drug world for two
decades. As well as the Grupo Collins factory in Zapopan, a nearby car wash is also on the U.S.
Treasury's black list. A local cemetery draws relatives of traffickers who were among the 17,000
people killed in the drug war in Mexico since 2006. "A lot of narcos are buried there. You should
see it on Fathers' Day," Ramirez said, as a black pick-up truck with tinted windows pulled in.
Zapopan residents just shrug their shoulders when a wealthy neighbor displays traits seen as
typical of a drug trafficker -- wearing cowboy gear, playing loud "norteno" music from the
country's north or holding lavish parties attended by guests who arrive in pick-up trucks or SUVs.
"Living alongside them is normal," Ramirez said. "Everybody knows when a neighbor is on the
shady side." One of those neighbors was Sandra Avila, a glamorous trafficker known as the
"Queen of the Pacific," who lived in Zapopan before being arrested in Mexico City in 2007. On a
typical day in Zapopan recently, men unloaded boxes from vans in the Grupo Collins compound,
near the company's private chapel and soccer field. From behind the factory's high walls, there
was little to suggest it could have ties to a cartel. "It has always been really calm," said Genaro
Rangel, who sells tacos every morning to factory workers from a stall across the street. The plant
was advertising a job opening on the company web site for a machine room technician.
Washington's accusation, filed under a U.S. sanctions program, makes it illegal for Americans to
do business with Grupo Collins and freezes any assets it might have in U.S. accounts. In a 2006
report, Mexican authorities named Grupo Collins' owner Telesforo Tirado as an operator of the
Colima cartel. The U.S. Treasury and Mexico's Attorney General's office both declined to provide
further details on the case and Grupo Collins executives also refused to comment. But Tirado
has previously denied the charges in the Mexican media. CASHING IN ON THE DRUG TRADE
What's going on in Zapopan is happening all over Mexico. A well-known Mexico City restaurant
specializing in the spicy cuisine of the Yucatan peninsula was added to the U.S. list of front
companies in December. Months earlier, one of Mexico's top food critics had recommended it.
Drug money has also fueled part of a real estate boom around tourist resorts such as Cancun,
said a senior U.S. law enforcement official in Mexico City. "We've had cases where traffickers
purchased large tracts of land in areas where any investor would buy," he said, asking not to be
named because of concerns about his safety. An architect in the city of Tijuana did well out of
designing buildings that cartels would build and rent out to legitimate local businesses. "The pay
was enough for me to build a house for myself, as well as to buy a lot a tools," he said. He was
once hired to design a tunnel that led to the street from a secret door in a drug gang member's
closet. Craving acceptance, the drug gangs even throw their money at acquaintances to get
them on the social scene. A drug trafficker pays his friend Roberto, who declined to give his last
name, to keep him connected in Tijuana and introduce him to women. "I take him to parties,"
Roberto said. In the wealthy shopping areas of Interlomas, near Mexico City, the Perfect
Silhouette spa offers breast implants. Staffed by young women in loose-fitting white suits, the
spa also sells weight-loss creams and offers massages. The U.S. Treasury recently said it was part
of the financial network of the Beltran Leyva cartel, whose leader was gunned down by elite
Mexican marines in December. The salon's manager, Teresa Delgado, appeared baffled by the
U.S. accusations. "We haven't seen anything strange here," she said. A woman Delgado
identified as the owner did not return a phone call requesting an interview. Businesses enlisted
to launder drug money typically get a cut worth 3 percent to 8 percent of the funds passing
through their books, the U.S. law enforcement official said. "SMURFING" AROUND THE LAWS
Much of the cartels' profits eventually ends up in Mexico's banking system, the U.S. official said.
During the global financial crisis last year, those assets provided valuable liquidity, says
economist Guillermo Ibarra of the Autonomous University of Sinaloa. "They had a cushion from
drug trafficking money that to a certain extent helped the banks," Ibarra said. Indeed, drug
money in banks is a global phenomenon, not just in Mexico. A United Nations report on the
global drug trade in 2009 said that "at a time of major bank failures, money doesn't smell,
bankers seem to believe." Drug gangs in Mexico have their associates make thousands of tiny
deposits in their bank accounts to avoid raising suspicion from banking authorities, a practice
known as "smurfing," said the U.S. official. Mexico's banking association and the finance
ministry's anti-money laundering unit declined to comment for this story. While Mexico is
confiscating more drugs and assets than ever under President Felipe Calderon, forfeitures of
money are still minuscule compared to even low-ball estimates of the amount of drug money
that flows into Mexico. Under Calderon, authorities have confiscated about $400 million, almost
none of which was seized from banks, said Ricardo Najera, a spokesman for the Attorney
General's Office. Mexican bank secrecy laws make it particularly difficult to go after drug money
in financial institutions, Najera said. "We can't just go in there and say 'OK, let's have a look,'" he
said. "We have to trace the illicit origin of that money before we can get at those bank
accounts." The U.S. Treasury has blocked only about $16 million in suspected Mexican drug
assets since June 2000, a Treasury official in Washington said. The official, who asked not to be
named, said the sanctions program aims to hit drug lords by breaking "their commercial and
financial backbones." But freezing assets is not "the principal objective nor the key measure of
success." MAFIA CAPITALISM Data on Mexican banking provides a novel way for calculating the
size of the drug economy. Ibarra crunched numbers on monetary aggregates across different
Mexican states and concluded that more money sits in Sinaloan banks than its legitimate
economy should be generating. "It's as if two people had the same job and the same level of
seniority, but one of them has twice as much savings," he said, talking about comparisons
between Sinaloa and other states. Ibarra estimates cartels have laundered more than $680
million in the banks of Sinaloa -- which is a financial services backwater -- and that drug money is
driving nearly 20 percent of the state's economy. Edgardo Buscaglia, an academic at Columbia
University, recently scoured judicial case files and financial intelligence reports, some of which
were provided by Mexican authorities. His research found organized crime's involvement in
Mexican businesses had expanded sharply in the five years through 2008, with gangs now
involved in most sectors of the economy. Buscaglia thinks Mexico's lackluster effort to
confiscate dirty money is allowing drug gangs and other mafias to flourish. "You will wind up
with mafia capitalism here before things improve," he said. Even though cartels are clearly
creating jobs and giving a lot of people extra spending money, some of these economic benefits
are neutralized by a raging drug war that has scared investors. About a dozen foreign companies
in Ciudad Juarez, across the border from Texas, are postponing investments in factories there
because of regular gun battles in the city, said Soledad Maynez, who heads a local factory
association. She met with the companies' representatives in November. "They need the security
issue improved," she said. Business leaders say thousands of shops have closed in Ciudad Juarez
because of the violence. Another problem the economy could face is that drug funding could
one day fall if authorities cracked down on money laundering or somehow wrenched power
away from the cartels. "(Drug money) could have a short-term positive effect. But in the long
run, because you're propping up this artificial economy, the moment it stops it all crashes," the
U.S. law enforcement official said. (Additional reporting by Lizbeth Diaz in Tijuana, editing by
Claudia Parsons and Jim Impoco)
Mexico is not a western Pakistan the rule of law is maintained and its far
away from a failed state.
Morton 11 associate professor of political economy and fellow of the Centre for the Study of
Social and Global Justice at the University of Nottingham (Adam David, Failed-State Status and
the War on Drugs in Mexico, Winter/Spring 2011, Global Dialogue V. 13, No. 1;
http://www.worlddialogue.org/content.php?id=502)//Beddow
It is this caricature of Mexico, based on the abstraction of failed-state discourse from the
historical development of the state, and from the political economy and geopolitical dynamics
structuring its post-colonial forms, that has to be rejected. It is a type of analysis that is being
increasingly disseminated, as in works such as George Graysons Mexico: Narco-Violence and a
Failed State? (Transaction Publishers, 2009). Government actions both reflect and bolster the
notion that the Mexican state is radically weak: the United States, in agreement with Mexicos
National Security Council, flies unarmed drones across Mexico to gather intelligence on drug
traffickers.23 As the Mexican historian Enrique Krauze has remarked of the creeping
misconception that Mexico is on the verge of becoming a failed state, lets leave caricatures
where they belong, in the hands of cartoonists, and certainly not at the forefront of state
policymaking or strategic thought linked to the academy.24 The Transformation of State Space
in Mexico Rather than assume that the territorial jurisdiction of state space is rooted within
clear and immobile boundaries, a more fruitful alternative approach is to begin by recognising
divergent spatial sites of power constituting state forms. States are not simply fixed and
unchanging entities but experience continual shifts in the geographical restructuring of space. A
simple review of the modern history of state formation in Mexico would highlight the changing
configurations of capital and state territorial organisation, whether through the Mexican War of
Independence (181021) against the Spanish colonial government, the US annexation of
Mexican territory and war in 18468, the occupation of the port of Veracruz by Spanish, British,
and French forces in 1861, the installation by the French of Emperor Maximillian in 1863, or the
occupation by US troops of Veracruz in 1914 during the Mexican Revolution of 191020.
Focusing on the social content of a statement attributed to the Mexican leader Porfirio Daz,
Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States, might enable one to begin
thinking more productively about the reconfiguration of state space through differential local,
national, regional, as well as geopolitical vectors. In sum, one needs to be more acutely aware of
the spatiality of state power and how state space is not only historically variable but also socially
produced through a matrix of power relations. This point is somewhat lost on President Felipe
Caldern when he exclaims, To say that Mexico is a failed state is absolutely false. I have not
lost any part, any single point, of the Mexican territory. Colombia lost [territory] during several
decades ... and even today huge parts of its territory [are] in the hands of the criminals, or the
guerrillas, or some combination of drug traffickers and guerrillas. But in Mexico, all the territory
is in the hands of the Mexican authorities.25
Warming
No warmingweve entered a 30 year period of coolingproved by PDOs
** PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION
Easterbrook 10geology professor specializing in climate effects
(Don, geology professor emeritus at Western Washington University
http://myweb.wwu.edu/dbunny/research/global/easterbrook_climate-cycle-evidence.pdf,
EVIDENCE OF THE CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING AND COOLING: RECURRING GLOBAL, DECADAL,
CLIMATE CYCLES RECORDED BY GLACIAL FLUCTUATIONS, ICE CORES, OCEAN TEMPERATURES,
HISTORIC MEASUREMENTS AND SOLAR VARIATIONS)
Global warming (the term used for warming from 1977 to 1998) is over. No warming
above the level temperatures in 1998 has occurred and global cooling has
deepened since 2005 (Fig. 24). Switching of the PDO back and forth from warm to
cool modes has been documented by NASAs satellite imagery (Figs. 25, 26). The
satellite image from 1989 is typical of the warm mode (1945-1977) with most of the eastern
Pacific adjacent to North America showing shades of yellow to red, indicating warm water.
The satellite image from 1999 (Fig. 27) shows a strong contrast to the 1997
image, with deep cooling of the eastern Pacific and a shift from the PDO warm
to the PDO cool mode. This effectively marked the end of global warming (i.e.,
the 1977 to 1998 warm cycle). Figures 2730 show that the switch of the PDO from its
warm cycle to the present cool cycle has become firmly established. Each time
this has occurred in the past century, global temperatures have remained cool
for about 30 years (Fig. 31). Thus, the current sea surface temperatures not only explain
why we have had global cooling for the past 10 years, but also assure that cool
temperatures will continue for several more decades.
Cooling is coming now its fast and outweighs the effects of warming
Carlin 11 PhD in Economics from MIT
Alan Carlin, PhD in Economics, former Director @ EPA and fellow @ RAND, 3-2011, A
Multidisciplinary, Science-Based Approach to the Economics of Climate Change, International
Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 8
On the contrary, the evidence is that during interglacial periods over the last 3
million years the risks are on the temperature downside, not the
upside. As we approach the point where the Holocene has reached the
historical age when a new ice age has repeatedly started in past glacial
cycles, this appears likely to be the only CAGW effect that mankind
should currently reasonably be concerned about. Earth is currently in
an interglacial period quite similar to others before and after each of
the glacial periods that Earth has experienced over the last 3 million
years. During these interglacial periods there is currently no known case where global
temperatures suddenly and dramatically warmed above interglacial temperatures, such as
we are now experiencing, to very much warmer temperatures. There have, of course, been
interglacial periods that have experienced slightly higher temperatures, but none that we
know of that after 10,000 years experienced a sudden catastrophic further increase in
global temperatures. The point here is that there does not appear to be
instability towards much warmer temperatures during interglacial
periods. There is rather instability towards much colder temperatures ,
particularly during the later stages of interglacial periods. In fact, Earth
has repeatedly entered new ice ages about every 100,000 years during
recent cycles, and interglacial periods have lasted about 10,000 years.
We are currently very close to the 10,000 year mark for the current
interglacial period. So if history is any guide, the main worry should be that of
entering a new ice age, with its growing ice sheets, that would probably
wipe out civilization in the temperate regions of the Northern Hemispherenot global
warming. The economic damages from a new ice age would indeed be large,
and almost certainly catastrophic. Unfortunately, it is very likely to occur sooner
or later.
Renewable projects on the border have grown dramaticallystatus quo solves
Wood et. al., 1ac author , 2012, fellow @ Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, Department of International Affairs, Instituto Tecnolgico Autnomo de Mxico Senior
Advisor, Mexico Institute Renewable Energy Initiative(Duncan Wood, July 2012, Solar Energy Potential in
Mexicos Northern Border States, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/Border_Solar_Romero_0.pdf)//Holmes
In recent years, the number of solar projects under development in the northern border states has
grown dramatically. From the west to the east coasts, the Government of Mexico, CFE, and
international private investment firms and energy companies have been working together to
exploit Mexicos solar reserves. Solar investments from Mexican, Spanish, U.S., and Chinese firms have been
nourishing the state and national economies, creating employment and growth.
1. Mexico wont step into their role as a world leader cant spread
green energy or reverse the divide.
Pellicer 6 (Olga, Professor at Centre for Research and Teaching in Economics, New Powers for
Global Change? Mexico--a Reluctant Middle Power?,
http://www.fesmex.org/common/Documentos/Ponencias/Paper%20Olga%20Pellicer.pdf, FES
Briefing Paper, p. 2)//MG
Mexico is a nation whose territorial dimension, demographic tendencies, economic importance on the
international level, geopolitical location and relative weight on the regional arena allow it to be considered as a
candidate for inclusion within the group of middle powers of the 21st Century. However, its economic
and political leaders have shown little interest in institutionalizing or improving their
countrys position within this category. A quick comparison with Brazil will readily illustrate this affirmation.
For the Brazilian government, a permanent seat on the U.N.s Security Council, participation in peace-keeping operations
such as the one it is currently leading in Haiti , heading the Continents most important sub-regional integration processes
such as MERCOSUR , or working towards improved South-South cooperation along with South Africa and India have long been
critical priorities. For Mexico, on the other hand, participation in the Security Council as a non-
permanent member has aroused resistance amongst broad sectors of internal public opinion, as has any
involvement in peace-keeping operations. Mexicos influence in Central America or the Caribbean, its closest
regions, is limited in the first instance and almost non-existent in the second; in general, neither public opinion nor the
nations leadership have particularly sought to enhance the countrys role on the international stage. This is not to say
that Mexico is indifferent to the main issues of international affairs. Its diplomacy has
consistently defended the United Nations as well as the rule of law in international relations. However, this has been more
a policy of principles than one of greater practical influence. Mexican diplomacy has
accrued respect for its professionalism, and not for its leadership in ground-breaking fields
or the acquisition of positions of global power. Mexican diplomacy has long been
characterized, to a great extent, by caution and a distaste for a protagonist role. The countrys
politicians and leaders seem unconcerned with expanding Mexicos role within the group of middle powers of
the 21st Century. What lies at the heart of this seeming reluctance?
Ocean Acidification
Their ocean acidification impact is hyperbolic nonsense at worse, acidification is a minor
cause of biodiversity depletion alt causes outweigh and studies prove
Ridley 12 DPhil and B.A. both in Zoology @ Cambridge (Matt, Taking Fears of Acid Oceans
With a Grain of Salt, Forbes, 1/7/12,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203550304577138561444464028.html,
RSpec)
Coral reefs around the world are suffering badly from overfishing and various forms of pollution.
Yet many experts argue that the greatest threat to them is the acidification of the oceans from
the dissolving of man-made carbon dioxide emissions. The effect of acidification, according to J.E.N. Veron, an
Australian coral scientist, will be "nothing less than catastrophic.... What were once thriving coral gardens that supported the
greatest biodiversity of the marine realm will become red-black bacterial slime, and they will stay that way." This is a common view.
The Natural Resources Defense Council has called ocean acidification "the scariest environmental problem you've never heard of."
Sigourney Weaver, who narrated a film about the issue, said that "the scientists are freaked out." The head of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration calls it global warming's "equally evil twin." But do the scientific data support such
alarm? Last month scientists at San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other
authors published a study showing how much the pH level (measuring alkalinity versus acidity)
varies naturally between parts of the ocean and at different times of the day, month and year.
"On both a monthly and annual scale, even the most stable open ocean sites see pH changes many times
larger than the annual rate of acidification," say the authors of the study, adding that because good
instruments to measure ocean pH have only recently been deployed, "this variation has been
under-appreciated." Over coral reefs, the pH decline between dusk and dawn is almost half as
much as the decrease in average pH expected over the next 100 years. The noise is greater than
the signal. Another recent study, by scientists from the U.K., Hawaii and Massachusetts,
concluded that "marine and freshwater assemblages have always experienced variable pH
conditions," and that "in many freshwater lakes, pH changes that are orders of magnitude
greater than those projected for the 22nd-century oceans can occur over periods of hours." This
adds to other hints that the ocean-acidification problem may have been exaggerated. For a start, the
ocean is alkaline and in no danger of becoming acid (despite headlines like that from Reuters in 2009: "Climate
Change Turning Seas Acid"). If the average pH of the ocean drops to 7.8 from 8.1 by 2100 as predicted,
it will still be well above seven, the neutral point where alkalinity becomes acidity. The central
concern is that lower pH will make it harder for corals, clams and other "calcifier" creatures to make calcium carbonate skeletons
and shells. Yet this concern also may be overstated. Off Papua New Guinea and the Italian island of Ischia,
where natural carbon-dioxide bubbles from volcanic vents make the sea less alkaline, and off
the Yucatan, where underwater springs make seawater actually acidic, studies have shown that
at least some kinds of calcifiers still thriveat least as far down as pH 7.8. In a recent experiment in the
Mediterranean, reported in Nature Climate Change, corals and mollusks were transplanted to lower pH sites, where they proved
"able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high [carbon-dioxide] levels projected for the next
300 years." In any case, freshwater mussels thrive in Scottish rivers, where the pH is as low as five. Laboratory experiments find that
more marine creatures thrive than suffer when carbon dioxide lowers the pH level to 7.8. This is because the carbon dioxide
dissolves mainly as bicarbonate, which many calcifiers use as raw material for carbonate. Human beings have indeed
placed marine ecosystems under terrible pressure, but the chief culprits are overfishing and
pollution. By comparison, a very slow reduction in the alkalinity of the oceans, well within the
range of natural variation, is a modest threat, and it certainly does not merit apocalyptic
headlines.

Ocean acidification increases phytoplankton photosynthesis
Riebesell 4 Professor of Biological Oceanography @ Leibniz Institute for Marine Sciences (Ulf,
Masters in Oceanography, Bachelors in biology, Ph.D, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 60, pp.
719 to 729, 2004, RSpec)
In principle, coccolithophores may benefit from the present increase in atmospheric pCO2 and
related changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. At pre-industrial CO2 levels, rates of
photosynthetic carbon fixation of E. huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica are well below CO2
saturation. In comparison, photosynthesis of other bloom-forming phytoplankton groups such
as diatoms and Phaeocystis are less CO2 -sensitive due to their efficient CCMs (Rost et al., 2003).
Although under natural conditions CO2 limitation is likely to be of minor importance for the
proliferation of E. huxleyi compared to other limiting resources and loss processes, increasing
CO2 availability may improve the overall resource utilisation of E. huxleyi and possibly of other
fast-growing coccolithophore species. If this provides an ecological advantage for
coccolithophores, rising atmospheric CO2 could potentially increase the contribution of
calcifying phytoplankton to overall primary production.

That solves ocean acidification
Warner et al. 8 Assistant Professor of Marine Biosciences @ U of Delaware, Ph.D Ecology, B.S.
Zoology *both @ U of Georgia+ (Mark, Interactive effects of increased pCO2, temperature and
irradiance on the marine coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (Prymnesiophyceae), European
Journal of Phycology, Volume 43, No. 1, pgs. 87-98, 2008, RSpec)
Coccolithophores are a biogeochemically important functional group of marine phytoplankton
that play a crucial role in both the marine carbon cycle through calcification (Paasche, 2002),
and the marine sulphur cycle through the release of dimethyl-sulphide (DMS) into the
atmosphere (Holligan et al., 1993). Emiliania huxleyi is the most abundant and cosmopolitan
coccolithophore and forms extensive offshore blooms, especially in the North Atlantic (Holligan
& Groom, 1986; Tyrrell & Taylor, 1996). It has been documented that blooms of E. huxleyi in the
natural environment are often associated with a shallow mixed layer and high light levels
(Nanninga & Tyrell, 1996), due to the high tolerance of this species for elevated irradiances
(Nielsen, 1995). The photosynthetic carbon fixation rate of E. huxleyi is well below saturation at
the present day CO2 level of

375 ppm, due to its relatively inefficient inorganic carbon acquisition mechanisms (Riebesell,
2004). Consequently, this species has usually been shown to increase its photosynthetic rate
with rising CO2 concentration (Riebesell et al., 2000; Rost et al., 2003). There have been many
recent studies examining the potential effects of global change on E. huxleyi, mostly focusing on
the influence of CO2 enrichment (Riebesell et al., 2000; Zondervan et al., 2001, 2002; Riebesell,
2004; Engel et al., 2005). Riebesell et al. (2000) and Zondervan et al. (2001, 2002) found that
enhanced CO2 levels increased the cellular POC content and thus decreased the PIC/POC ratio
of E. huxleyi cells. Leonardos & Geider (2005) also observed that, under nitrogen-limiting
conditions, elevated CO2 increased organic carbon fixation of a noncalcifying strain at high
irradiance (500 mmol photons m
-2
s
-1
). Engel et al. (2005) carried out a mesocosm experiment
to document the effect of CO2 concentration on a bloom of E. huxleyi, which supported earlier
findings of reduced calcification and a deeper particulate organic matter remineralization depth
at higher CO2 concentrations


Human Trafficking
Politics

Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Obamas PC and focus is key to overcome GOP opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.

Specifically, expanding anti-trafficking aid to Mexico will cause backlash and
divert attention - our link is unique
Seelke 1/29 specialist in Latin American Affairs at CRS, covers Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Mexico, as well as issues such as
gangs and trafficking in persons. Holds a Master of Public Affairs and Master of Arts in Latin American Studies (Clare Ribando,
1/29/13, Congressional Research Service, "Mexico and the 112th Congress," http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32724.pdf)//AM
Many Mexican law enforcement activities with respect to combating alien smuggling and human
trafficking receive some degree of U.S. financial support. One way to increase Mexico's role in
migration enforcement may be for Congress to consider additional investments in these programs.
The United States also could include migration control as an explicit priority within other existing programs, such as the
Mrida Initiative. On the other hand, Mexico is already among the largest recipients of U.S.
anti-TIP assistance in the Western Hemisphere, and some Members of Congress may be
reluctant to invest more resources in such programs.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.

T
A. Engagement towards a government must be conditional
Haass and OSullivan, 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the
Brookings Institution AND **a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings
Institution (Richard and Meghan, Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies
Survival,, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer%20haass/2000surv
ival.pdf

Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged, the kind of
incentives employed and the sorts of objectives pursued. Engagement may be conditional
when it entails a negotiated series of exchanges, such as where the US extends positive
inducements for changes undertaken by the target country. Or engagement may be
unconditional if it offers modifications in US policy towards a country without the explicit
expectation that a reciprocal act will follow. Generally, conditional engagement is geared
towards a government; unconditional engagement works with a countrys civil society or
private sector in the hopes of promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation.

B. Violation the plan isnt conditional
C. Voting issue for limits and ground engagement is a huge mechanism;
requiring the affirmative to use a predictable mechanism like a quid pro quo is
essential for disad links and critiques of attaching strings


Drug Trafficking Trade Off DA
Bilateral human trafficking prevention is on the backburner; the plan moves it
to the forefront and trades off with drug interception efforts
Bernish 10
(Paul, National Underground Railroad Freedom Center, Anti-Human Trafficking Efforts on the
Home Front Remain a Work In Progress, Feb 12,
http://web.archive.org/web/20120815232231/http://freedomcenter.org/freedom-
forum/index.php/2010/02/progress-slow-fighting-domestic-human-trafficking/) //LA
Whats preventing progress? Responsibility for anti-trafficking efforts is spread across numerous government departments. Justice
and Homeland Security (through its Immigration & Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) both have major roles, but the Departments
of State, Health & Human Services, Agriculture and Labor also are involved in fighting trafficking. With many departments sharing
oversight, leadership remains ill-defined. The U.S. does have a national anti-trafficking law, the William Wilberforce Act, but at the
state level, a plethora of statutes some tightly crafted, others vague and ill-defined often leave police and prosecutors without
the proper legal teeth to go after trafficking criminals. Forty of the 50 states have some kind of human trafficking law on the books,
but attempts to create model legislation a step that would greatly aid enforcement and prosecutions at the local and state levels
have so far failed. Local police and other trafficking first responders, such as EMS personnel and social workers, remain largely
untrained in identifying trafficking situations. A 2009 study of local preparedness in Cincinnati, sponsored by the National
Underground Railroad Freedom Center, revealed widespread confirmation that human trafficking cases were increasing, but that
training to deal effectively with victims and prosecute the traffickers was sorely lacking. A statewide study of trafficking in Ohio
found virtually identical weaknesses. Although interest and attention to trafficking issues is growing, the
governments commitment to combating it is more rhetorical than actual . In December, for
example, President Obama signed an appropriations bill that contained the biggest-ever
increase in federal funding for anti-trafficking activities. The amount of the increase? A paltry
$12.5 million, which Free the Slaves CEO and co-founder Jolene Smith described as an incremental increase . . . not
transformational. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano promised a major set of initiatives in the anti-trafficking battle
would be announced in January; so far, nothing has been forthcoming. As is the case in many other nations, the dearth of
trafficking prosecutions in the U.S. leads many to conclude that the issue is overblown, and
that scarce resources need to be directed at more pressing concerns, such as drug trafficking.
Causes terrorism
Citing Allen 8
(The Associated Press, citing Charles Allen, Chief Intelligence Analyst for DHS. US Officials Fear
Terrorist Links With Drug Lords, http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=5986948)
There is real danger that Islamic extremist groups such as al-Qaida and Hezbollah could form
alliances with wealthy and powerful Latin American drug lords to launch new terrorist attacks,
U.S. officials said Wednesday. Extremist group operatives have already been identified in
several Latin American countries, mostly involved in fundraising and finding logistical support.
But Charles Allen, chief of intelligence analysis at the Homeland Security Department, said
they could use well-established smuggling routes and drug profits to bring people or even
weapons of mass destruction to the U.S. "The presence of these people in the region leaves
open the possibility that they will attempt to attack the United States," said Allen, a veteran
CIA analyst. "The threats in this hemisphere are real . We cannot ignore them."
Nuclear war
Corsi 5
[Jerome. PhD in Poli Sci from Harvard, Expert in Politically-Motivated Violence. Atomic Iran, Pg
176-8]
The combination of horror and outrage that will surge upon the nation will demand that the
president retaliate for the incomprehensible damage done by the attack. The problem will be
that the president will not immediately know how to respond or against whom. The perpetrators will
have been incinerated by the explosion that destroyed New York City. Unlike 9-11, there will have been no interval during the attack when those
hijacked could make phone calls to loved ones telling them before they died that the hijackers were radical Islamic extremists. There will be no such
phone calls when the attack will not have been anticipated until the instant the terrorists detonate their improvised nuclear device inside the truck
parked on a curb at the Empire State Building. Nor will there be any possibility of finding any clues, which either
were vaporized instantly or are now lying physically inaccessible under tons of radioactive
rubble. Still, the president, members of Congress, the military, and the public at large will suspect another
attack by our known enemy Islamic terrorists. The first impulse will be to launch a nuclear
strike on Mecca, to destroy the whole religion of Islam. Medina could possibly be added to the target list just to make
the point with crystal clarity. Yet what would we gain? The moment Mecca and Medina were wiped off the map, the Islamic world more
than 1 billion human beings in countless different nations would feel attacked. Nothing would emerge intact after
a war between the United States and Islam. The apocalypse would be upon us. [CONTINUES} Or the
president might decide simply to launch a limited nuclear strike on Tehran itself. This might be the most rational option in the attempt to retaliate but
still communicate restraint. The problem is that a strike on Tehran would add more nuclear devastation to the world calculation. Muslims
around the world would still see the retaliation as an attack on Islam, especially when the
United States had no positive proof that the destruction of New York City had been triggered by
radical Islamic extremists with assistance from Iran. But for the president not to retaliate might be unacceptable to the
American people. So weakened by the loss of New York, Americans would feel vulnerable in every city in the nation. "Who is going to be next?" would
be the question on everyone's mind. For this there would be no effective answer. That the president might think politically at
this instant seems almost petty, yet every president is by nature a politician. The political
party in power at the time of the attack would be destroyed unless the president retaliated
with a nuclear strike against somebody. The American people would feel a price had to be
paid while the country was still capable of exacting revenge.

Tax-Witholding CP
Text: The United States federal government should institute a withholding tax
of forty percent on the portfolio interest income earned by Mexico and its
investors, negotiate a sufficient reduction to this withholding rate to Mexico if
it satisfies adequate benchmarks regarding human trafficking, and negotiate to
coordinate this tax policy. Well clarify.
The counterplan ramps up financial pressure and provides a sufficient economic
incentive to take action against human trafficking
Fahey 9
[Diane. Assc Prof Law @ NYU School of Law. Can Tax Policy Stop Human Trafficking? The
Georgetown Journal of International Law, Vol 40 No 2. Winter 2009. Ln]
All of the various U.N. denunciations of human trafficking have failed to abolish human trafficking
because they lack legal enforcement mechanisms and fail to create collateral consequences.
States can enact domestic legislation to punish trafficking within their own borders only. NGOs can create programs to educate or
assist victims but only to the extent they have funds and governments cooperate with them. The marketplace cannot provide legal
enforcement or collateral consequences (e.g., boycotts or shareholder resolutions) in the shadow 44 economy where most
trafficking occurs. None of these entities or institutions has the ability to reach into a complicit or
noncooperative state and force change . Economic growth does not solve all social problems and will not
eliminate any time soon the poverty that drives much of human trafficking. There are great disparities of wealth between the
developed and developing nations, 197 and the gaps are widening. 198 In addition, the disparities in wealth within countries are
greatest in the poor, developing countries, many of which are source countries for victims. 199 Most developing
countries societies contain a thin crust of the very wealthy, perhaps some middle class, and
the bulk of the people are poor. 200 Foreign aid programs and programs administered by NGOs direct their efforts
towards assisting the poor, such as by providing education or teaching skills. However, foreign aid and NGOs f ace overwhelming
demands on their limited resources. Further, their efforts to prevent trafficking can be frustrated in countries where the government
is uncooperative or even complicit in the practice. However, the Internal Revenue Code and tax treaties can be
used to create internal pressure within complicit or noncooperative countries on the
governments and on their wealthiest citizens who have the political power to force change. For
example, they can demand that the government crackdown on corrupt government officials who abet human trafficking by
accepting bribes to look the other way or even engage in it themselves (such as brothel owners). They can demand that
the government allocate resources to the problem, such as by providing more funding for
education. The developed countries should re-impose a withholding tax of 30% or 40% on the
portfolio interest income earned by foreign investors. 201 Investors who are residents of countries which
satisfy certain benchmarks or criteria with regard to human trafficking would be subject to a lesser withholding rate by the source
country. 202 In addition, the source countries could return a portion of the revenues collected to
governments of countries that satisfy the criteria. This revenue would provide more stability
and support to these governments. Unlike foreign aid , these governments would not receive
the funds until they have complied with certain criteria . One of the biggest problems with
foreign aid is corruption and misuse of the funds. 203 The benefits that arise from this proposal are threefold:
(1) It is in the economic interests of developed countries to tax this revenue in order to fund
the welfare state and of developing countries in order to fund basic services; (2) it would
curtail tax evasion , at least with regard to portfolio investment income. If the portfolio
interest is taxed at the source, foreign investors cannot avoid tax on this income by the simple
expedient of funneling it through a tax haven; (3 ) it creates economic pressure on the
wealthy in developing countries who are the most powerful constituency and in a position to
demand change, and provides economic rewards to governments that take meaningful steps
to stop trafficking. If the withholding tax rate is sufficiently high, and if the developed countries re fuse
to break ranks, the wealthy foreign investors face limited choices: (1) either submit to the tax; (2)
invest in riskier, less desirable countries; or (3) demand that their governments take action so that the investors can
receive the benefit of the lower withholding rates. This transnational legal enforcement provided by the
Internal Revenue Code and tax treaties changes the cost/benefit analysis for countries in
which human trafficking is tolerated or even encouraged. There now would be real economic
penalties and benefits associated with human trafficking . 204 Further, this instrumental sanction
does not harm the poor the economic penalty is imposed only on the wealthy . If the
government complies with certain benchmarks and receives a refund of revenues, those
revenues are additional sources of income to the government and the refund would only
occur if the government had taken certain actions that would benefit victims of trafficking (the
poor.)
Smuggling Distinction

Their evidence is about smuggling, not trafficking. The two are distinct.
Seelke, 13 (Clare Ribando Seelke, Specialist in Latin American Affairs; Trafficking in Persons in Latin America and the
Caribbean; Congressional Research Service, 7/15/13) KD
In 2000, the United Nations drafted two protocols, known as the Palermo Protocols, to deal with trafficking in persons and human
smuggling.8 Trafficking in persons is often confused with human smuggling. This confusion has been
particularly common among Latin American officials.9 Alien smuggling involves the provision of a service,
generally procurement of transport, to people who knowingly consent to that service in
order to gain illegal entry into a foreign country. It ends with the arrival of the migrant at his or her destination.
The Trafficking Protocol considers people who have been trafficked, who are assumed to be primarily women and children, as
victims who are entitled to protection and a broad range of social services from governments. In contrast, the Smuggling
Protocol considers people who have been smuggled as willing participants in a criminal activity who
should be given humane treatment and full protection of their rights while being returned to their country of origin.10 Many
observers contend that smuggling is a crime against the state and that smuggled migrants should be immediately
deported, while trafficking is a crime against a person whose victims deserve to be given government
assistance and protection. The Department of Justice asserts that the existence of force, fraud, or coercion is
what distinguishes trafficking from human smuggling.11 Under U.S. immigration law, a trafficked
migrant is a victim, while an illegal alien who consents to be smuggled is complicit in a
criminal activity and may therefore be subject to prosecution and deportation.
AT: U.S. Key
US is not key to trafficking
POLULYAKH AND RA 2006 (Diana Polulyakh and Sue Young Ra are third year students at the University of San Francisco School of Law,
Fall, 8 J.L. & Soc. Challenges 165)
Human trafficking is a serious, yet hidden problem that affects all parts of the world. Trafficking
has been called present-day slavery and involves the recruitment, transportation, and sale of persons for forced labor. It is estimated
that approximately two million men, women and children are trafficked worldwide annually,
15,000 to 18,000 of whom are moved into or out of the United States. 1 Victims of human trafficking are forced to work in a variety
of industries: agriculture, sex, manufacturing, restaurants, and domestic service. Human trafficking is a nine billion dollar a year
business that operates using virtually free labor and with minimal risk that the illegal activity will be detected and punished. 2

TVPA Bad
TVPA is a bad model assumes all trafficking victims are female sex slaves
needing rescue
Srikantiah 7 Associate Professor of Law and Director, Immigrants Rights Clinic, Stanford Law (Jayashri, Perfect Victims and
Real Survivors: The Iconic Victim In Domestic Human Trafficking Law, Boston University Law Review v. 187,
http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/volume87n1/documents/SRIKANTIAHv.2.pdf)//AM
The regulations and agency implementation of the TVPA envision a prototypical victim with
several characteristics: (1) the victim is a woman or girl trafficked for sex; (2) law enforcement
assesses her to be a good witness; (3) she cooperates fully with law enforcement investigations; and (4) she is rescued
instead of escaping from the trafficking enterprise. These attributes, taken together, contemplate
a victim of sex trafficking who passively waits for rescue by law enforcement, and upon
rescue, presents herself as a good witness who cooperates with all law enforcement
requests. At the beginning of the iconic victim narrative, the victim is forced, defrauded, or
coerced into trafficking for forced sex, not forced labor. The force, fraud, or coercion must be severe enough
for an investigator or prosecutor to subsequently deem the victim a good witness for prosecuting the trafficker. Once in the
trafficking enterprise, the victim must remain passive until rescued by law enforcement, as
reflected in the regulatory preference for rescue over escape. She must then fully reveal her
story to law enforcement upon rescue, given the regulatory requirement of the LEA endorsement.170


AT: No War
Deterrence only proves that war can happen
Shaw, 11 Assistant Chief of Defence Staff, UK Military (Jonathan, September 27, 2011, interview by World Policy Institute,
The Once and Future War, World Policy Institute, http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/fall2011/conversation, Hensel)
WPJ: So do you think we are seeing the end of traditional battlefields? Is this going to be the end of the old stand-and-deliver
warfare? Or are we facing more cerebral warfare, where systems are being attacked and not simply individuals or people? General
Shaw: Youve got to be careful if youre talking about competition between nations or existential threats. If you go back to World
War I, World War II, and the Cold War, the defining feature was that they were existential battles for survival
between nations. And they were limitless wars. What you are seeing now in Afghanistan and Iraq are
more wars of choice by politicians. They are not limitless. Do I feel that we are seeing the end of force-on-
force, total annihilation? Absolutely not. Thats why you and I keep a nuclear deterrent . We
cannot afford to say that a nuclear attack will never happen . But as Rupert Smith argues, quite cogently, in
his book, The Utility of Force, nuclear weapons have made an escalation and unlimited use of military power self-defeating. You
wind up destroying the very things you are trying to preserve.

Great power war is still highly likely
Ferguson, 08 DPhil, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institute, Professor of History, Harvard University
(Niall, January 16, 2008, Chill Wind from 1914, Hoover Digest No. 1,
http://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-digest/article/5641, Hensel)
The risk of a major geopolitical crisis in 2007 is certainly lower than it was in 1914. Yet it is not so low as to lie
altogether beyond the realm of probability . The escalation of violence in the Middle East as
Iraq disintegrates and Iran presses on with its nuclear program is close to being a certainty, as
are the growing insecurity of Israel and the impossibility of any meaningful U.S. exit from the
region. All may be harmonious between the United States and China today, yet the potential for tension over
trade and exchange rates has unquestionably increased since the Democrats gained control of Congress. Nor
should we forget about security flashpoints such as the independence of Taiwan , the threat of North
Korea , and the nonnuclear status of Japan . To consign political risk to the realm of uncertainty
seems almost as rash today as it was in the years leading up the First World War. AngloGerman
economic commercial ties reached a peak in 1914, but geopolitics trumped economics . It often does.

Even a small risk of nuclear war outweighs and mistakes make it more likely
Harrell 9 associate professor of public policy at Harvard Kennedy School. Eben Harrell is a research associate with the Project on
Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School and a Boston-based stringer for TIME. (Eben, "The Nuclear Risk: How Long Will Our
Luck Hold," 2/20/09, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1880702,00.html)//AM
But to marvel at the bizarre coincidence of the collision, or to breathe a sigh of relief that nuclear safety was not breached, is to miss
the point. The seemingly impossible collision of two subs in a large ocean should remind us of the fallacy by which we
assume nuclear weapons will never be used. Because the threat of global nuclear war is not zero, even a
small chance of war each year, multiplied over a number of years, adds up to the likelihood
that the weapons will be used. Like those two subs stalking through the Atlantic, the odds will begin to align.
Mathematically, they are destined to. This is not a mere logic game. If there is a single "big idea" to have emerged in
the first decade of the new millennium from the September 11 attacks to the financial crash it is the notion of the "black
swan," the danger posed by difficult to predict, high-impact events. The short history of
nuclear weapons is already scattered with unplanned and seemingly improbable incidents
that suggest we feel more secure than we should. In 1995, a communication failure with the
Russian Embassy led the Russian military to believe that a weather rocket launched off the coast of
Norway was an incoming submarine-launched ballistic missile. In the 1980s, malfunctioning U.S. missile
defense systems relayed information to U.S. officials of a massive incoming first strike
twice. As recently as 2007, a U.S. Air Force plane flew across the American heartland while
unknowingly carrying several live warheads on board. At the time, all of these events were
described as freak occurrences. The truth is they were freak occurrences. But they
happened.(Read the Top 10 underreported stories of 2008.) A day after the latest nuclear accident became public, an analyst
from the Federation of American Scientists, a nonproliferation think tank, released U.S. Naval intelligence documents obtained
through the Freedom of Information Act that showed that the Russian Navy undertook more underwater ballistic missile submarine
patrols in 2008 than it has in a decade. The Russian subs are joined in the word's oceans by nuclear-armed vessels from France,
Britain, and China. Under the plains of the American West, and in similar silos in Russia, Air Force
missile operators keep constant vigil, launch keys at the ready. Nuclear missiles have no self-
destruct button; once launched, they cannot be called back. Twenty years after the end of the
cold war, humanity still lives within 30 minutes of its own destruction. The price we pay for maintaining
nuclear weapons is the gamble that the highly improbable will not lead to the unthinkable. The question to ask after this latest nervy
episode: is it worth it?

AT: No Extinction
Nuclear war causes extinction freezing temperatures, radiation, and famine
Ehrlich et al 83 Bing Professor of Population Studies and Professor of Biological. Sciences at Stanford University ("Long-term
biological consequences of nuclear war," 12/23/83, http://www.sciencemag.org/content/222/4630/1293.short)//AM
Subfreezing temperatures, low light levels, and high doses of ionizing and ultraviolet radiation
extending for many months after a large-scale nuclear war could destroy the biological
support systems of civilization, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Productivity in natural and
agricultural ecosystems could be severely restricted for a year or more. Postwar survivors would
face starvation as well as freezing conditions in the dark and be exposed to near-lethal doses
of radiation. If, as now seems possible, the Southern Hemisphere were affected also, global disruption of the biosphere could
ensue. In any event, there would be severe consequences, even in the areas not affected directly,
because of the interdependence of the world economy. In either case the extinction of a large
fraction of the Earth's animals, plants, and microorganisms seems possible. The population size of
Homo sapiens conceivably could be reduced to prehistoric levels or below, and extinction of the
human species itself cannot be excluded.

Turn: Domestic focus o/w
Focus on international trafficking trades off with protection for US citizens
forced into sexual slavery
STRAUSS 2010 (Lindsay, B.A., The University of Michigan, 2007; J.D. Candidate, Cornell Law School, 2010, Spring, 19 Cornell J. L. & Pub. Pol'y
495)
Although international trafficking has garnered more federal attention than domestic
trafficking, the similarities between the two are startling, and thus require a reframing of the issue of human
trafficking. With the passage of The White Slave Traffic Act (Mann Act) in 1910, the phrase "traffic in women and children" was used
to demarcate "white slavery," or international trafficking, from local prostitution. 69 This demarcation focused attention on
international trafficking victims and diverted it away from the continuing enslavement of American women in local prostitution. 70
The TVPRA of 2005, however, was amended in part to draw attention to the fact that, under the TVPA, foreign trafficking
victims are treated as victims while American trafficking victims are treated as criminals. 71
Because of this disparate treatment, American domestic trafficking victims do not receive the
services they need to free themselves from an abusive industry. 72 Like international trafficking victims,
most of the women and children who work as prostitutes in the United States do so against
their will. 73 For example, they are forced into prostitution because of the brutal [*507] tactics of their pimps, who are
responding to the high demand for sexual services. 74 Pimps, like international traffickers, often control the victims' identification,
money, and freedom, and use physical and psychological abuse to further control their prostitutes. 75 Through sleep deprivation,
sexual and physical violence, learned helplessness, false promises, and favors, pimps create a cycle of abuse and affection, which
creates a trauma bond between the pimp and the victim. 76 Pimps actively exploit this bond in order to force women to prostitute
for them. 77 Moreover, these women, like foreign victims, are often already vulnerable to exploitation because of poverty or past
abuse. 78 For instance, it is well known that women in the United States and abroad, on average, make less money than their male
counterparts and have, due to societal norms, fewer economic alternatives. 79 In addition, many of these women are homeless,
have children to support, or suffer from drug addiction. 80 [*508] Thus, many women enter prostitution and stay in prostitution due
to economic necessity. In addition, an estimated eighty percent of the prostitutes in America began working as children, 81 and sixty
to seventy percent of them have histories of childhood sexual abuse, 82 which pimps exploit for financial gain. 83 Pimps often
promise these women a new life or a new job to lure them into prostitution, similar to the false promises used by international
traffickers. 84 Furthermore, like numerous foreign trafficking victims, many domestic victims come from unstable homes. 85 Their
parents often abandon them, or they run away due to sexual or physical abuse. 86 Although the parents of domestic trafficking
victims may not sell them to pimps outright, as some foreign victims' families do, 87 the victims' vulnerable position on the streets
lead about 40,000 of the estimated 1.6 million runaway children each year to become involved with sex trafficking. 88 The
similarities between domestic and international trafficking victims are striking, and it is clear that both groups need to be thought of
as victims - worthy of assistance and protection - and not as criminals.

Outweighs the case300,000 people are at risk every year
STRAUSS 2010 (Lindsay, B.A., The University of Michigan, 2007; J.D. Candidate, Cornell Law School, 2010, Spring, 19 Cornell J. L. & Pub. Pol'y
495)
In actuality, domestic trafficking is modern-day slavery that occurs widely in the United States. The exact number of trafficked
individuals, however, is unknown and difficult to determine due to the unwillingness and inability of most victims to come forward.
66 At any given time, between 100,000 to 300,000 children are at risk of being forced or
coerced into commercial sexual exploitation in the United States. 67 Also, according to one report,
service providers have only been able to help a fraction of these victims. 68 While prostitution may
represent a chosen profession for a few, it is not a choice for the vast majority.

Turn: Aff is counterproductive
Anti-trafficking interventions are counterproductive and trap victims in
oppressive conditions
DANAILOVA-TRAINOR AND LACZKO 2010 (Gergana, US GAO; and Frank, International Organization for Migration,
International Migration 48:4, Wiley Online Library)
For example, in a recent paper Dottridge (2008) suggests that initiatives which were nominally supposed to stop
trafficking actually had numerous negative effects for people who have been trafficked, as
well as other groups of people, such as migrants and sex workers. One example cited is the following:
In the course of observing the impact of our interventions, we began to be concerned that some of the approaches we were
supporting might have unintended negative consequences. Prevention messages that characterized trafficking as a definite result of
leaving a village seemed to discourage girls and women from exercising their right to migrate in
search of a better life. Some women and girls crossing the border to visit relatives or join legitimate jobs were intercepted
as suspected trafficking victims, infringing on their right to migrate an important self-protection mechanism, especially given the
current conflict. Furthermore increased HIV/AIDS awareness also resulted in serious stigmatisation of
returnees, with some neighbours thinking all returnees must be infected by the virus (Hausner,
2005). Development policies and programmes may also impact on trafficking in ways, which are not expected. For example, it is
unclear to what extent development interventions that target the very poor and improve their condition from very poor to poor are
likely to reduce trafficking or shift trafficking from one type to another, for example, from internal to cross-border trafficking.8
Authors indict

There is no evidence for any of the affit is all a construct of anti-prostitution
feminist groups who ignore proper data collection techniques
Weitzer, 12 Professor of Sociology, George Washington University. Ph.D., University of California,
Berkeley (Ronald Weitzer, 2012 Sex Trafficking and the Sex Industry: The Need for Evidence-
based Theory and Legislation,
http://www.law.northwestern.edu/journals/jclc/backissues/v101/n4/1014_1337.Weitzer.pdf)//
EM
But there is also a parallel story a robust mythology of trafficking. While no one would claim
that sex trafficking is fictional, many of the claims made about it are wholly unsubstantiated .
This Article offers a critique of the paradigm responsible for this mythology, a perspective that has become increasingly popular over
the past decade. This oppression paradigm depicts all types of sexual commerce as institutionalized
subordination of women, regardless of the conditions under which it occurs. 4 The perspective
does not present domination and exploitation as variables but instead considers them core
ontological features of sexual commerce. 5 I will contrast this monolithic paradigm with an
alternative one that is evidence-based and recognizes the existence of substantial variation
in sex work. This polymorphous paradigm holds that there is a broad constellation of work
arrangements, power relations, and personal experiences among participants in sexual commerce.
Polymorphism is sensitive to complexities and to the structural conditions shaping the uneven
distribution of workers agen cy and subordination. Victimization, exploitation, choice, job satisfaction, self -
esteem, and other factors differ between types of sex work, geographical locations, and other structural conditions. Commercial
sexual exchange and erotic entertainment are not homogeneous phenomen a . 6 A growing number of researchers have challenged
the oppression models claims, yet their criticisms have yet to gain serious attention from American lawmakers. This A rticle (1)
analyzes the claims made by those who embrace the oppression model, (2) identifies some legal and policy implications of this
paradigm, and (3) offers an evidence - based alternative. 7 The analysis pertains to both sex trafficking and to sexual commerce
more generally. II. T HE O PPRESSION P ARADIGM Many of the leading proponents of the oppression paradigm
are affiliated with organizations committed to eradicating the entire sex industry, such as
Prostitution Research and Education, Standing Against Global Exploitation (SAGE), Stop Porn Culture, and the Coalition Against
Trafficking in Women (CATW). 8 What unites them is their staunch advocacy of the oppression paradigm and political commitment
to prohibition of all sexual commerce and adult entertainment . Oppression writers have been roundly criticized
for violating standard canons of social science inquiry and for viewing sex work through a
monochromatic lens . 9 Despite this criticism, proponents rigidly adhere to the central tenets of their
paradigm, even when confronted with compelling counter - evidence. 10 Moreover, most
oppression writers restrict their citations to writings of like - minded authors and ignore
research findings that contradict the pillars of their paradigm. 11 Such inconvenient findings are plentiful.
12 Scientific advancement depends on researchers due diligence in weighing findings and arguments that challenge their own: It is
standard practice to situate a study within the related scholarly literature. Oppression writers neglect of relevant
research is a radical departure from conventional scho larly writings. And on those rare occasions when contrasting
work is cited, the findings have sometimes been distorted or even inverted by the author. 13
The oppression model is grounded in a particular branch of feminist thinking: radical feminism. It dif fers from the religious rights
objections to commercial sex, which center on the threat it poses to marriage, the family, and societys moral fiber. 14 The
oppression paradigms central tenet is that sexual commerce rests on structural inequalities between men and women and that
male domination is intrinsic to sexual commerce. 15 Women would not be compelled to sell sexual or erotic services if they had the
same socioeconomic opportunities as men. Moreover, the very existence of prostitution suggests that m en have, according to
Carole Pateman, a patriarchal right of access to womens bodies, thus perpetuating womens subordination to men. 16 Another
writer declares that prostitution dehumanizes, commodifies and fetishizes women . . . . In prostitution, th ere is always a power
imbalance, where the john has the social and economic power to hire her/him to act like a sexualized puppet. Prostitution excludes
any mutuality of privilege or pleasure . . . . 17 Oppression theorists argue that these fundamental ha rms will endure no matter how
prostitution, pornography, or stripping are governed; legalizing these practices (where currently illegal) in order to reduce harms will
not lessen the gender inequality that is intrinsic to sexual commerce. Domination will p ersist simply by virtue of mens paid access
to womens bodies. 18 Champions of the oppression paradigm frequently make extravagant claims
about commercial sex as an institution, the participants in paid sex transactions, the nature of sex trafficking, and the
effects of different kinds of laws. To drive home the seriousness of the problem, advocates often link prostitution to a
host of violent crimes calling it domestic violence, 19 torture, 20 and paid rape 21 and
tering,
e
n on the
street and pimps in business suits who terrorize women in gentlemens clubs is a difference in class only, not a difference in woman
hating. 24 Some advocates of the oppression paradigm simply make pronouncements, like the above,
without offering any empirical evidence . 25 Other oppression writers, however, try to support their claims with
some kind of evidence. Both approaches are present in the oppression - based literature on sex trafficking. III. S E X T RAFFICKING A.
THE POLITICS OF TRAFFICKING In order to further discredit the practice of prostitution and delegitimize systems where prostitution
is legal and regulated by the government, oppression writers have fused prostitution with sex trafficking.
26 Donna Hughes claims that most sex workers are or originally started out as trafficked
women and girls. 27 She then calls for re - linking trafficking and prostitution, and combating the commercial sex trade as a
whole. 28 There is no evidence that most or even the majority of prostitutes have been
trafficked. It is important to recognize that as recently as fifteen years ago, trafficking was not a routine part of the discourse
regarding prostitution. 29 Today, several analysts argue that prostitution has been socially constructed in a
particular way through the trafficking prism and that there is no objective equivalence between the two. 30 Prostitution
involves a commercial transaction and trafficking is a process whereby a third party facilitates an indiv iduals involvement in sexual
commerce. There is plenty of prostitution by independent operators that does not involve trafficking. 31 And such independent
enterprises may be growing with the help of i nternet - facilitated connections between sex workers and clients. Some oppression
writers are quite candid about their political reasons for linking trafficking with prostitution. Melissa Farley declares , A false
distinction between prostitution and trafficking has hindered efforts to abolish prostitution . . . . Since prostitution creates the
demand for trafficking, the sex industry in its totality must be confronted. 32 The first sentence reveals that the ultimate goal is not
the elimination of trafficking but rather the elimination of prostitution. Regard ing the second sentence asserting that
prostitution creates the demand for trafficking there is no compelling reason why prostitution would necessarily demand
trafficked participants (if trafficking is defined as involving deception or force) or even w illing migrants , and why it could not draw
from a local pool of workers instead. In some places the local pool may be shallow and require migrants to meet demand, but this
would not be sufficient to justify Farleys claim regarding prostitution in general . Despite the problematic way in which oppression
writers have constructed trafficking, they have been remarkably successful in rebranding trafficking in a way that implicates all sex
work. As one analyst wrote, the prohibitionists have successfully tran sformed the anti - trafficking movement into a modern,
worldwide moral crusade against prostitution. 33 The prostitution trafficking connection was fully embraced by the Bush
administration, illustrated by the State Departments webpage The Link Between Pr ostitution and Sex Trafficking , which claimed,
inter alia , that prostitution fuels trafficking in persons and fuel*s+ the growth of modern - day slavery. 34 The prohibitionist
portrayal of trafficking clashes with an alternative, socioeconomic model that views trafficking as a complex phenomenon driven by
deep economic disparities between wealthy and poor communities and nations, and by inadequate labor and migration frameworks
to manage their consequences. 35 Oppression writers often ignore socioeconomic forces and instead
focus on individual actors: pimps, traffickers, clients, and female victims. How is trafficking itself
presented in oppression writings? M elodramatically. In an article representative of this literature (and published in this Journal ) ,
Iris Yen perceives a pandemic of human trafficking. 36 She writes that sex trafficking is appropriately described as sex ual
slavery and that the individuals involved are essentially slaves, 37 despite the fact that many of those who are trafficked a re not
held in slave - like conditions. 38 She claims, without evidence, that *t+ raffickers routinely beat, rape,
starve, confine, torture, and psychologically and emotionally abuse the women. 39 The magnitude
of the problem is said to be alarming , but the figures Yen cites 14,500 to 100,000 trafficked into the U.S. every year are
incredibly wide - ranging and thus rather dubious. 40 Yen then extrapolates from trafficking to prostitution: Thus, contrary to the
erroneous perception that prostitution is a victi mless crime . . . too many victims have paid for their crime of poverty with
devastated lives. 41 Bias is particularly evident in her emotive language , e.g., the ugly truth of the commercial sex industry and
egregious human rights abuses from the sex tr ade. 42 These images of prostitution and trafficking abound
throughout the writings of oppression theorists, but their accuracy is belied by their sweeping,
unequivocal nature. Each of the above claims has been challenged by other analysts and by a
body of research findings cited throughout this Article . The experiences of trafficked persons , in the migration process
and in their working conditions , range along a broad continuum. Some individuals experiences fit the oppression model well, while
others c luster at the opposite end. Many of those who migrate are responding to push factors such as the lack of economic
opportunities in their home countr ies or the desire to provide a better life for family members, rather than the pull factor of
nefarious tra ffickers. 43
Solvency
Status quo solves perception
Soderlund, 5 (Gretchen Soderlund, NWSA Journal, 2005, Running from the Rescuers: New U.S.
Crusades against Sex Trafficking and the Rhetoric of Abolition,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/4317158 p. 67)//EM
The United Nations (UN) is the largest global regulatory institution to declare global sex trafficking a violation of women's human
rights. However, in the last three years the United States has positioned itself as an equally significant
force in the anti-trafficking arena. Combating sex slavery has become a key Bush administration
priority and its most championed humanitarian cause. The Department of Justice under John Ashcroft
has spent an average of 100 million dollars a year to fight trafficking domestically and internationally,
a sum that overshadows any other individual nation's contributions to similar efforts.2 The current administration's
attempt to assert global moral leadership on this issue by staging interventions in any country
it deems weak on trafficking sets it apart from other countries. In what follows I explore the genesis and
hidden political dimensions of current U.S.-based anti-sex trafficking initiatives. I trace the process through which sex trafficking
came to occupy its current position in the Bush administration's pantheon of international causes by examining how social
movements and protectionist media discourses have produced sex slavery as an object worthy of governmental intervention.
Nanotech
Politics
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Obamas PC and focus key to overcome GOP opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.

And, Development assistance is divisive house wants to cut it
Morales 7/24
(Where does foreign aid stand in the US budget battle?, pg online @
https://www.devex.com/en/news/where-does-foreign-aid-stand-in-the-us-
budget-battle/81504 //um-ef)
Owing to the desperate humanitarian situation in Syria and other parts of the world, the Senate places $4.5 billion for
humanitarian assistance. This is about $1.6 billion lower than what House thinks of global humanitarian needs for the next
fiscal year. Humanitarian assistance could have been bigger had Congress proposed to place Obamas ambitious food aid program
into the foreign aid budget. The president wants to funnel the money out of the restrictive Food for
Peace and then place it into the more flexible programs of the U.S. Agency for International
Development. Development assistance the account which funds projects on democracy, rule of law, water, clean
energy and others is another case of the House and Senates differing priorities. The House provides $2
billion, but the Senate adds $500 million more. MCC, an agency which has traditionally been receiving
bipartisan support, gets mixed funding proposals the House wants $197 million less than
the Senates offer of $899 million. As U.S. lawmakers speed up budget deliberations before they take a break this August, the
fate of fiscal year 2014 spending hangs in the balance. The Senate, in its press release announcing the approved FY 2014 SFOPs
budget, sums up the divided Congress: The House allocation for SFOPs is $40.6 billion, which is $10 billion
below the Senate level. The differences are stark. Almost no account or program escapes
unscathed in the House bill.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.




T
A. Engagement towards a government must be conditional
Haass and OSullivan, 2k - *Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the
Brookings Institution AND **a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies Program at the Brookings
Institution (Richard and Meghan, Terms of Engagement: Alternatives to Punitive Policies
Survival,, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/articles/2000/6/summer%20haass/2000surv
ival.pdf

Many different types of engagement strategies exist, depending on who is engaged, the kind of
incentives employed and the sorts of objectives pursued. Engagement may be conditional
when it entails a negotiated series of exchanges, such as where the US extends positive
inducements for changes undertaken by the target country. Or engagement may be
unconditional if it offers modifications in US policy towards a country without the explicit
expectation that a reciprocal act will follow. Generally, conditional engagement is geared
towards a government; unconditional engagement works with a countrys civil society or
private sector in the hopes of promoting forces that will eventually facilitate cooperation.

B. Violation the plan isnt conditional
C. Voting issue for limits and ground engagement is a huge mechanism;
requiring the affirmative to use a predictable mechanism like a quid pro quo is
essential for disad links and critiques of attaching strings
CP
Text: The United States federal government should substantially increase its
nanotechnology assistance to Brazil
And, Brazil wont regulate its nano needs U.S. Leadership
Falkner 2k12
(Robert, London School of Economics, Regulating Nanotechnologies: Risk,
Uncertainty and the Global Governance Gap, pg online @
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/falkner/_private/2012_Falkner_Jaspers_RegulatingN
anotechnologies.pdf //um-ef)
Emerging economies, and to some extent developing countries, occupy a special place in the
regulatory debate . On the one hand, countries such as China, India, Russia, Brazil and South
Africa are investing increasing sums of public funding in basic and applied research in
nanosciences .59 They are keen to close the nanotechnology gap with leading industrialized
countries and are also beginning to produce nanomaterials and nano-enabled products in
commercial quantities. On the other hand, however, the regulatory capacity of emerging
economies to deal with nanotechnology risks remains constrained. Some (e.g. China) have
initiated research programs into potential EHS hazards and are developing regulatory
frameworks, while others (e.g. India) have barely begun to identify regulatory challenges . In
any case, such efforts tend to lag behind those of industrialized countries. As in other areas of
technology risk, emerging and developing countries are keen to promote technological uptake
as part of wider developmental efforts but face considerable limitations in their regulatory
capacity . It remains to be seen whether economic and political globalization will promote a
strengthening of regulatory systems in the developing world, through processes of international
norm diffusion or trading up.60 It also remains unclear whether EU or US approaches will serve
as the dominant model for developing regulatory systems in other countries, or whether a trend
towards regulatory polarization or diversity is likely to emerge.61

And, Brazil is a model they are a leader in nanotech

Falkner 2k12
(Robert, London School of Economics, Regulating Nanotechnologies: Risk,
Uncertainty and the Global Governance Gap, pg online @
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/falkner/_private/2012_Falkner_Jaspers_RegulatingN
anotechnologies.pdf //um-ef)
Several OECD countries have established themselves as leading developers of
nanotechnologies, most notably the US, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and
South Korea. They command a leading position worldwide, in terms of patent applications,
expenditure on research and development, and success in product development. But
increasingly, emerging economies are conducting applied and basic research in
nanotechnology. Among these countries, China has moved into a leadership position,
followed by India, Russia, Mexico and Brazil. Indeed, a recent survey of nano-related patent
applications puts China in second position worldwide, just after the US.26 The globalization of
nanotechnology is well underway.

China
Chinas influence in North American trade is expanding
Shaiken et al 13
[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters
Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de
Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New
Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg
7-8]
This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a process beginning
in 2001 with Chinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the
U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since
2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massive trade volume with both the
U.S. and Mexico. The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with
both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade
dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the
United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our
examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the
region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen
sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-
2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export markets in
the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products such as
telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing accessories and
garments, among many others. NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-
2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as
autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the
predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment,
employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the
gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small
portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even
in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA , the integration process did not allow for
the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has
shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-
industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have
been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in
debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).
Increasing economic engagement strengthens US-Mexican relations
de Castro 12
(Rafael Fernndez chair of the international studies department at the
Autonomous Technological University of Mexico, Viewpoints: What Should the
Top Priority Be for U.S. Mexican Relations? American Society/Council of the
Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-top-
priority-be-us-mexican-relations)
Brand new President Enrique Pea Nieto has three priorities in Mexicos bilateral relations with
the United States. The first priority is to take advantage of the opportunity that was created by the weight of the
Hispanic vote in favor of Barack Obamas reelection to achieve immigration reform. It is Pea Nietos task to
help Obama create the foundation for immigration reform, not with demands but through
actions. He must therefore align Mexicos objectives with those of the United States: they
must consistently seek legal, safe and orderly migration. Furthermore, he must do some serious
housekeeping, preventing abuses against Central American migrants from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. And, he must
develop a stable southern border, one that counts with a state presence and adequate infrastructure. The spirit of the
transformation of the southern border must preserve the positive aspects of border integration processes while achieving efficiency
in formal operations that will allow it to triumph over illegality. The second priority is to take advantage of more favorable
economic winds in both Mexico and the United States. Pea Nieto must prioritize an agenda of economic
integration and greater regional competitiveness. The Mexican and Canadian entry into the Trans Pacific
Partnership negotiations signify an opportunity to harmonize stances between the three
members of NAFTA to amplify markets in Asia. Mexico will be hosting the 2013 North American Leaders Summit,
and Pea Nieto should thus be able to push a new regional strategic agenda that includes safer
and efficient borders and the standardization of production. The third priority is to maintain
the aid flows that help combat organized crime and drug trafficking in the face of a U.S. fiscal crisis that
can threaten these resources. Here Pea Nieto must emphasize three elements: agree with Washingtons
priority that it help strengthen Mexicos law enforcement institutions (police, judges, and prisons);
develop a regional vision that includes Central America; and insist on an open debate that finally puts the decriminalization of drugs
on the table.
Improved US-Mexico relations crowd out China
Fischer 12
*Howard. Analyst for Capitol Media. Fox says US-Mexico ties deter China's
influence 9/14/12 http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-s-
influence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html]
Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico - including
recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the international
agenda on its own terms . "The threat is this so-called power shift from the West to the East ," he
told a press conference Thursday at an economic development event organized by the city of Peoria. "Those nations on the
East are getting ready and prepared to lead," Fox explained, saying there are forecasts showing the
Chinese economy will be larger than that of the United States within a dozen years. "And that
means a very important question to all of us: Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be
exercising their leadership?" Fox said. His point: The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico
and other Latin American countries than perhaps those with different worldviews. "We have our
values in the West that we share," Fox said. "So we all on this continent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that
challenge." That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico , he said. If the
West wants to keep its edge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the
United States, legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said, will
require resolving the issue of who can come to this country and under what circumstances. "It has to be
based on humanism, on compassion, on love, on friendship, on neighborhood and on partnership that we have together," Fox said.
"Otherwise, we will keep losing the jobs to the East." Fox, who served as president from 2000 to 2006, insisted he
is not in favor of "open borders." "But I am in favor of the use of our talent, our wisdom, our intelligence," Fox said. And that
requires finally filling the vacuum of what kind of laws on immigration are necessary. In his speech, Fox did not address Arizona's
approval of SB 1070 two years ago in an effort to give state and local police more power to detain and arrest suspected illegal
immigrants. But in response to a question afterward, he said Arizona and other states have waded into the fray with their own laws
out of frustration with the lack of action in Washington. "At the very end, migration is a national issue," Fox said. With immigration
reform stalled in Congress, "state governments and state legislatures have been forced to get involved." Fox said that what's
needed now is for lawmakers in Washington to come up with at least a framework for reform. "We need to know what the
playground is and what the rules of the game are," he said, calling on leaders to "put aside xenophobia, put aside all of our
complaints that we might have, and sit down and discuss the differences." Fox said it also needs to be recognized that this is
not just a one-way relationship, saying Mexico buys $250 billion of U.S. products every year,
meaning "millions of jobs" to this country's economy.
Chinese international influence is an existential impact it controls every
scenario for extinction
Zhang 12
[Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas Political
Softpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive
both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including
widespread poverty , international conflict , the clash of civilizations and environmental
protection . Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues;
the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these
dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened
poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that
in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are
striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of
development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to
virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful
in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of
"exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of
terrorism threatens global security . In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most
precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international
cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of
civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world,
which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet
promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash
of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to
respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of
Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China.
China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its
"self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their
people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for
the emission of greenhouse gases . Although Europeans and Americans have a strong
awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles.
Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective
environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China model The China
model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the above four issues
grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizing modernization while
maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense of human consciousness.
Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't be explained by
Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has significantly
helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing poverty, and
manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.


Environ
Nanotech devastates the environment
Food & Water 09- Food & Water Europe is a non-profit organization working with grassroots organizations around the world
to create an economically and environmentally viable future. Through research, public and policymaker education, media and
lobbying, we advocate policies that guarantee safe, wholesome food produced in a humane and sustainable manner and public,
rather than private, control of water resources including oceans, rivers and groundwater (Food & Water Europe, Unseen Hazards
from Nanotechnology to Nanotoxicity, 12/2009, http://www.scribd.com/doc/24137218/Unseen-Hazards-from-Nanotechnology-to-
Nanotoxicity-%E2%80%93-Food-Water-Europe//VS)
As humans interact with products containing nanotechnologieseither in the workplace or at homethere is the worry
that nanoparticles will eventually wash down our drains and into our water systems, creating
problems with water resources, fishing and farmland. The ultimate fate of nanoparticles once released into the
environment remains very much unstudied. One study examining nanosilvera widely used nanoparticle with antibacterial
properties that is found in at least 260 consumer products54showed that the nanomaterial could wipe out beneficial
bacteria that neutralize ammonia in wastewater treatment systems.55 Scientists also found nanosilver to
be extremely toxic, able to destroy the benign species of bacteria that are used for
wastewater treatment and halt the reproduction activity of the good bacteria56 necessary
to break down organic matter in wastewater. Other nanoparticles, like single-walled carbon nanotube
byproducts in wastewater discharge, have been shown to cause increased mortality and delayed
development of small estuarine (coastal marsh-dwelling) crustaceans.57 Research has linked nanocopper with
damage to gills and death in zebrafish,58 while titanium dioxide has been associated with gill damage,
respiratory problems and oxidative stress in rainbow trout.59 In addition to polluting waterways, nanoparticles could also
have a negative impact on farmland, which is also serving as an unwitting testing ground for nano-sized innovations.
Manufacturers of agrochemicals are reformulating existing pesticides to contain nano-sized
versions of the active components,60 which could result in other contamination of the land and water.
In one study, nano-aluminum was shown to stunt root growth in five commercial crops (corn, soybeans, carrots, cucumber and
cabbage).61

Precautionary principle means the aff fails
Food & Water 09- Food & Water Europe is a non-profit organization working with grassroots organizations around the world
to create an economically and environmentally viable future. Through research, public and policymaker education, media and
lobbying, we advocate policies that guarantee safe, wholesome food produced in a humane and sustainable manner and public,
rather than private, control of water resources including oceans, rivers and groundwater (Food & Water Europe, Unseen Hazards
from Nanotechnology to Nanotoxicity, 12/2009, http://www.scribd.com/doc/24137218/Unseen-Hazards-from-Nanotechnology-to-
Nanotoxicity-%E2%80%93-Food-Water-Europe//VS)
In 2005, the electronics corporation Samsung announced its new line of its new line of silver magic home appliances containing
silver nanoparticles, boasting that Silver Nano ions can easily penetrate non-membrane cell of
bacteria or viruses and suppress their respiration which in turn inhibit cell growth. On the other
hand, Silver Nano is absolutely harmless to the human body.79 Because nanotechnology regulations are very
weak, consumers are essentially asked to trust a companys own assessment of its product
safety, a dangerous prospect. While regulators generally acknowledge the unique properties that nanoparticles
exhibit, they have largely failed to craft unique rules to address their potential hazards. Following
the precautionary principle, nanoparticles should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis, and
their proliferation stopped until a full assessment of environmental and health risks has
been conducted. The precautionary principle is certainly part of the dialogue among
European regulators and legislators, but so, too, is the push toward capitalizing on the
economic potential of nanotechnology. The debate over nanotechnology has clear parallels
to the debate over biotechnology both are new, untested tools that pose potential risks to
consumers.

Squo solves
Squo solves U.S. and Mexico are cooperating on regulations now

HLRCC 12 (High-Level Regulatory Cooperation Council, Executive Office of the President of the United States, UNITED
STATES-MEXICO HIGH-LEVEL REGULATORY COOPERATION COUNCIL WORK PLAN, 02/28/2012,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/oira/irc/united-states-mexico-high-level-regulatory-cooperation-council-work-
plan.pdf, AC)

The fourth item on the HLRCC Work Plan involves the potential alignment of U.S. and Mexican policy
approaches to oversight of applications of nanotechnology and nanomaterials. The relevant agencies are
the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) and the National Metrology Centre (CENAM). Description: Mexico and the
United States are in the process of developing principles and approaches to inform government oversight and regulation of
nanotechnology applications and nanomaterials. Objective/Desired Outcome: Share information and develop
approaches on foundational regulatory elements, including terminology/nomenclature, information-gathering,
and approaches to risk assessment and management. Develop initiatives to align regulatory
approaches in specific areas, such that consistency exists for consumers and industry in
Mexico and the United States. 8 INEGI, National Accounts, January to August 2011. UNITED STATES-MEXICO High-
Level Regulatory Cooperation Council WORK Plan 9 Specific Deliverables and Timeline: Specific deliverables identified in the Work
Plan include: the development of the
general nanotechnology principles (accomplished by September 2011); Response of Mexicos relevant
regulators to the U.S. Memorandum on Policy Principles for the U.S. Decision-making Concerning Regulation and Oversight of
Applications of Nanotechnology and Nanomaterials, of June 9, 2011 (accomplished by October 2011); Creation of a
mechanism for exchanging information between the United States and Mexico on regulatory
matters for nanotechnology applications and nanomaterials (accomplished by February 2012); Share
the advances of the Mexican side on potential principles on regulations for nanotechnology
applications and nanomaterials (accomplished by February 2012); and Engage in a dialogue to consider a
possible model framework providing key elements and approaches to regulating
nanotechnology applications and nanomaterials with respect to potential impacts on the
environment, human health, labor, food or agriculture (by February 2013).
AT: Brain Drain
Brain drain empirically denied India proves

Guerrero and Bolay 5 Ph.D Cum Laude in Political Sciences , independent
consultant, Ph.D in Political Sciences, Director of Cooperation at Swiss Federal
Institute of Technology (Gabriela and Jean-Claude, Enhancing development
through knowledge circulation: a different view of the migration of highly
skilled Mexicans, Global Commission on International Migration, Nov 2005,
http://www.migrationdevelopment.org/fileadmin/data/resources/brain_drain
/research_papers/GMP_51_english_01.pdf)//RH
Some countries have developed important scientific and technological centres in the countries of
origin using the resources of expatriate HRST. The best known example of this is India, which boasts a well-
developed higher educational system, producing a considerable number of highly skilled HRST who
increasingly occupy top positions in the worlds most important and prestigious technology firms and research
centres, especially those located in the United States. More and more researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology - Madras
(IIT) receive offers to take up professional or postgraduate positions in the United States immediately after they have
finished their studies, and from there they continue to collaborate with the IIT or to create joint
ventures with institutions in India. The generic applicability of information and communication technologies (IT) is
considered to be one of the main reasons behind the numerous migrations of HRST from Indias IT sector (Khadria, 2001) (Xiang,
2001). In this sense, the globalisation of human capital no longer implies the simple physical movement of professionals but rather it
also includes the global application of skills in various specialized areas. The reference literature shows how Indian HRST expatriates,
especially those residing in the United States, play an absolutely strategic role in terms of attracting investment
for research and experimental development (RED) in India, the growth of industrial exports, the
foundation of health and educational institutions and the creation of a development model that
could be used as a blueprint for other developing countries suffering from brain drain (Tarifica Ph.
Ltd., 1998; Khadria, 1999; Saxenian, 2000; Khadria, 2003). Some estimates suggest that HRST expatriates have facilitated a third of
all the foreign investment in India since 1991 (Tarifica Ph. Ltd., 1998). Along these lines, Xiang (2001) suggests that migrations of
Indian HRST should no longer be viewed in a negative light, but rather they should be seen as an opportunity to benefit from an
Indian brain bank located overseas.
Brain drain not happening Mexico program retains researchers
Guerrero and Bolay 5 Ph.D Cum Laude in Political Sciences , independent consultant, Ph.D in Political Sciences,
Director of Cooperation at Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (Gabriela and Jean-Claude, Enhancing development through
knowledge circulation: a different view of the migration of highly skilled Mexicans, Global Commission on International Migration,
Nov 2005,
http://www.migrationdevelopment.org/fileadmin/data/resources/brain_drain/research_papers/GMP_51_english_01.pdf)//RH
The Mexican Researcher Retention and Repatriation Programme, also known as the Repatriation Programme, was
created in 1991 by the Mexican government through Conacyt, its aim being to retain HRST in Mexico and
reverse the brain outflow. The institution facilitates the return of Mexican scientists from abroad and
seeks to incorporate them into higher education academic institutions and scientific research
centres in Mexico and the SNI in order to increase and strengthen scientific development and
the advancement of human resources in science and technology. According to information from the SIICYT,
this programme succeeded in repatriating and retaining 1,859 researchers between 1991 and
1999, a figure that corresponds to approximately half of the scholarship students and almost a
third of the members of SNI in 1999. The majority of repatriates came from the following six countries: United States
(40%), France (15%), Great Britain (13%), Spain (9%), Canada (5%) and Germany (5%), which are also the main countries to which
Mexican scholarship students go to study.
AT: S&T
Squo solves promotes sustainable economic growth, relations, and regional
stability US and Mexico already cooperating on S&T over 40 S&T agreements
already in place

Miotke 8 subcommittee on research and science education, committee on science and technology, House of Representatives,
110 Congress, Foreign Service Officer, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Science, Space, and Health (Jeff, International Science
and Technology Cooperation, Government Printing Office, 4/2/2008, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-
110hhrg41470/html/CHRG-110hhrg41470.htm)//RH
The Bureau of Oceans, Environment, and Science (OES) in DOS pursues such efforts through the establishment of
bilateral and multilateral S&T cooperation agreements. There are now over forty of these
framework agreements in place, or in various stages of negotiation, in every region of the
world--from Asia and Africa, to Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America. These
agreements: Strengthen bilateral, regional, and global cooperation, advance broader U.S. foreign policy
goals, provide for protection and allocation of intellectual property rights and benefit sharing,
encourage public and private engagement, foster science-based decision-making, facilitate the
exchange of scientific results and access for researchers, address taxation issues, and respond
to the complex set of issues associated with economic development, security, and regional stability.
These bilateral agreements have significant indirect benefits including contributing to solutions and
initiatives that encourage sustainable economic growth, promoting good will, strengthening
political relationships, helping foster democracy and civil society, supporting the role of
women in science and society, promoting science education for youth, and advancing the
frontiers of knowledge for the benefit of all.

U.S. tech leadership inevitable despite challenges no other country has the
structural institutions to sustain leadership empirics prove

Acemoglu et. al 12 (Daron Acemoglu, economist, Professor of Economics at MIT,
James A. Robinson, Professor of Government at Harvard University, Worlds
next technology leader will be U.S, not China if America can shape up,
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-
Viewpoint/2012/0419/World-s-next-technology-leader-will-be-US-not-China-if-
America-can-shape-up, April 19, 2012)
The odds favor the US not only because it is technologically more advanced and innovative
than China at the moment, with an income per capita more than six times that of China. They
do so also because innovation ultimately depends on a countrys institutions. Inclusive
political institutions distribute political power equally in society and constrain how that power
can be exercised. They tend to underpin inclusive economic institutions, which encourage
innovation and investment and provide a level playing field so that the talents of a broad
cross-section of society can be best deployed. Despite all of the challenges that they are facing,
US institutions are broadly inclusive, and thus more conducive to innovation. Despite all of the
resources that China is pouring into science and technology at the moment, its political
institutions are extractive, and as such, unless overhauled and revolutionized soon, they will be
an impediment to innovation. China may continue to grow in the near term, but this is growth
under extractive institutions mostly relying on politically connected businesses and
technological transfer and catch-up. The next stage of economic growth generating genuine
innovation will be much more difficult unless China's political institutions change to create
an environment that rewards the challenging of established interests, technologies, firms, and
authority. We have a historical precedent for this type of growth and how it runs out of
steam: the Soviet Union. After the Bolsheviks took over the highly inefficient agricultural
economy from the Tsarist regime and started to use the power of the state to move people
and resources into industry, the Soviet Union grew at then-unparalleled rates, achieving an
average annual growth rate of over 6 percent between 1928 and 1960. Though there was much
enthusiasm about Soviet growth as there is now about Chinas growth machine it couldnt
and didnt last. By the 1970s, the Soviets had produced almost all the growth that could be
derived from moving people from agriculture into industry, and despite various incentives and
bonuses, and even harsh punishments for failure, they could not generate innovation. The
Soviet economy stagnated and then totally collapsed.

No impact to science diplomacy

Dickson 2k9
[David, Direction Science & Development Network. June 2, 2009, Science
diplomacy: the case for
caution,http://scidevnet.wordpress.com/category/new- frontiers-in-science-
diplomacy-2009]
One of the frustrations of meetings at which scientists gather to discuss policy-related issues is the speed
with which the requirements for evidence-based discussion they would expect in a
professional context can go out of the window. Such has been the issue over the past two days in the meeting
jointly organised in London by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and the Royal Society on the topic
New Frontiers in Science Diplomacy. There has been much livelydiscussion on the value
of international collaboration in achieving scientific goals, on the need for researchers to work
together on the scientific aspects of global challenges such as climate change and food security,
and on the importance of science capacity building in developing countries in order to make this possible. But there
remained little evidence at the end of the meeting on how useful it was to lump all these
activities together under the umbrella term of science diplomacy. More significantly, although
numerous claims were made during the conference about the broader social and political value
of scientific collaboration for example, in establishing a framework for collaboration in other areas,
and in particular reducing tensions between rival countries little was produced to
demonstrate whether this hypothesis is true. If it is not,then some of the arguments made on
behalf of science diplomacy, and in particular its value as a mechanism for exercising soft
power in foreign policy, do not stand up to close scrutiny. Indeed, a case can be made thatwhere
scientific projects have successfully involved substantial international collaboration, such
success is often heavily dependent on a prior political commitment to cooperation, rather
than a mechanism for securing cooperation where the political will is lacking. Three messages
appeared to emerge from the two days of discussion. Firstly, where the political will to collaborate does exist, a
joint scientific project can be a useful expression of that will. Furthermore, it can be an enlightening
experience for all those directly involved. But it is seldom a magic wand that can secure broader
cooperation where none existed before. Secondly, science diplomacy will only become recognised as a useful
activity if it is closely defined to cover specific situations (such as the negotiation of major international scientific projects or
collaborative research enterprises). As an umbrella term embracing the many ways in which science interacts with foreign policy, it
loses much of its impact, and thus its value. Finally, when it comes to promoting the use of science in
developing countries, a terminology based historically on maximising self-interest the ultimate goal of the
diplomat and on practices through which the rich have almost invariably ended up exploiting
the poor, is likely to be counterproductive. In other words, the discussion seemed to confirm
that science diplomacy has a legitimate place inthe formulation and implementation of
policies for science (just as there is a time and place for exercising soft power in international relations). But the
dangers of going beyond this including the danger of distorting the integrity of science itself,
and even alienating potential partners in collaborative projects, particularly in the developing world
were also clearly exposed.



AT: Disease
No extinction

Posner 5Senior Lecturer, U Chicago Law. Judge on the US Court of Appeals 7th
Circuit. AB from Yale and LLB from Harvard. (Richard, Catastrophe,
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4150331/Catastrophe-the-dozen-
most-significant.html)
Yet the fact that Homo sapiens has managed to survive every disease to assail it in the 200,000 years or so of its
existence is a source of genuine comfort, at least if the focus is on extinction events. There have been enormously destructive plagues, such as the Black Death, smallpox,
and now AIDS, but none has come close to destroying the entire human race. There is a biological
reason . Natural selection favors germs of limited lethality; they are fitter in an evolutionary
sense because their genes are more likely to be spread if the germs do not kill their hosts too
quickly. The AIDS virus is an example of a lethal virus, wholly natural, that by lying dormant yet infectious in its host for years maximizes its spread. Yet there is
no danger that AIDS will destroy the entire human race. The likelihood of a natural pandemic that would cause the
extinction of the human race is probably even less today than in the past (except in prehistoric times, when people lived in small, scattered bands, which would
have limited the spread of disease), despite wider human contacts that make it more difficult to localize an infectious disease.

Intervening actors check

Zakaria 2k9Editor of Newsweek, BA from Yale, PhD in pol sci, Harvard. He
serves on the board of Yale University, The Council on Foreign Relations, The
Trilateral Commission, and Shakespeare and Company. Named "one of the 21
most important people of the 21st Century" (Fareed, The Capitalist Manifesto:
Greed Is Good, 13 June 2009, http://www.newsweek.com/id/201935)
NoteLaurie Garrett=science and health writer, winner of the Pulitzer, Polk, and Peabody Prize
It certainly looks like another example of crying wolf. After bracing ourselves for a global pandemic, we've suffered
something more like the usual seasonal influenza. Three weeks ago the World Health Organization declared a health emergency, warning countries
to "prepare for a pandemic" and said that the only question was the extent of worldwide damage. Senior officials prophesied that millions
could be infected by the disease. But as of last week, the WHO had confirmed only 4,800 cases of swine
flu, with 61 people having died of it. Obviously, these low numbers are a pleasant surprise, but it does make one wonder, what did we get wrong? Why did the
predictions of a pandemic turn out to be so exaggerated? Some people blame an overheated media, but it would have been
difficult to ignore major international health organizations and governments when they were warning of catastrophe. I think there is a broader mistake in
the way we look at the world. Once we see a problem, we can describe it in great detail, extrapolating all its possible consequences. But we
can rarely anticipate the human response to that crisis . Take swine flu. The virus had crucial
characteristics that led researchers to worry that it could spread far and fast. They describedand the
media reportedwhat would happen if it went unchecked. But it did not go unchecked. In fact, swine flu was met by an
extremely vigorous response at its epicenter, Mexico. The Mexican government reacted
quickly and massively, quarantining the infected population, testing others, providing medication to those who needed it. The noted expert on
this subject, Laurie Garrett, says, "We should all stand up and scream, 'Gracias, Mexico!' because the Mexican people and the Mexican
government have sacrificed on a level that I'm not sure as Americans we would be prepared to do in the exact same circumstances. They shut down their schools. They
shut down businesses, restaurants, churches, sporting events. They basically paralyzed their own economy. They've suffered billions of dollars in financial losses still
being tallied up, and thereby really brought transmission to a halt." Every time one of these viruses is
detected, writers and officials bring up the Spanish influenza epidemic of 1918 in which millions of people died. Indeed,
during the last pandemic scare, in 2005, President George W. Bush claimed that he had been reading a history of the Spanish flu to help him understand how to respond.
But the world we live in today looks nothing like 1918. Public health-care systems are far
better and more widespread than anything that existed during the First World War. Even Mexico, a developing country, has a
first-rate public-health systemfar better than anything Britain or France had in the early 20th century.

Disease spread is inevitable.

Bower & Chalk 03 (Jennifer Bower, Science & Tech Policy Analyst, Peter Chalk,
Political Scientist, Vectors Without Borders, summer 2003,
http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/summer2003/vectors.ht
ml)
In the latter half of the 20th century, almost 30 new human diseases were identified. The spread
of several of them has been expedited by the growth of antibiotic and drug resistance.
Globalization, modern medical practices, urbanization, climate change, sexual promiscuity,
intravenous drug use, and acts of bioterrorism further increase the likelihood that people will
come into contact with potentially fatal diseases.

Market pressures and implementation hurdles decimate effectiveness

Spieler 07
(Jeff, chief of research, technology and utilization for the Office of Population
and Reproductive Health at the US Agency for International Development was
held recently at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars ,
Nanotechnology and Health, 02/2007,
http://www.anythingbutwork.com/health/nanotechnology.htm//VS)
Measuring one billionth of a meter, one nanometer is a fraction the average width of a human hair (about 100 000 nanometers).
Nanotechnology is the ability to measure, see, manipulate and manufacture objects between one and 100
nanometers. Dr. Peter A. Singer, senior scientist at the McLaughlin-Rotman Centre for Global Health and Professor of Medicine at
University of Toronto said: "Nanotechnology has the potential to generate enormous health benefits for the
more than five billion people living in the developing world. Nanotechnology might provide less-industrialized countries with
powerful new tools for diagnosing and treating disease, and might increase the availability of clean water. "But it remains to
be seen whether novel applications of nanotechnology will deliver on their promise. A
fundamental problem is that people are not engaged and are not talking to each other.
Business has little incentive-as shown by the lack of new drugs for malaria, dengue fever and
other diseases that disproportionately affect people in developing countries-to invest in the
appropriate nanotechnology research targeted at the developing world. Government foreign
assistance agencies do not often focus, or focus adequately, on science and technology. With scant
public awareness of nanotechnology in any country, there are few efforts by nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs) and community groups to examine how nanotechnology could be directed toward, for example,
improving public health in the developing world." Previous research by Dr Singer's group identified
nanotechnology applications relating to energy, agricultural productivity, water supply, and diagnosis and treatment of disease as
having most immediate relevance to the developing world. Researchers also highlighted a surprising amount of innovative
nanotechnology R&D in a number of developing countries. Dr. Andrew Maynard, chief science advisor for the Woodrow Wilson
Center's Project on Emerging Nanotechnologies commented: "Countries like Brazil, India, China and South Africa have
significant nanotechnology research initiatives that could be directed toward the particular needs
of the poor. But there is still a danger-if market forces are the only dynamic-that small
minorities of people in wealthy nations will benefit from nanotechnology breakthroughs in
the health sector, while large majorities, mainly in the developing world, will not. Responsible
development of nanotechnology must include benefits for people in both rich and poor
nations and at relatively low cost. This also requires that careful attention be paid to possible risks
nanotechnology poses for human health and the environment." Dr. Piotr Grodzinski, director of the
Nanotechnology Alliance for Cancer at the National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health said: "It is my belief that
nanomaterials and nanomedical devices will play increasingly critical and beneficial roles in improving the way we diagnose, treat,
and ultimately prevent cancer and other diseases. But we face challenges; the complexity of clinical
implementation and the treatment cost may cause gradual, rather than immediate, distribution of
these novel yet effective approaches.

AT: Water
No water shortages in Latin America now high water management, model for
other countries, democratic processes now
World Bank 13 (World Water Day: Latin America leads in water management but inequalities
in access remain, World Bank, 3/22/13,
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/03/22/world-water-day-latin-america-
achievements-challenges)//BD

From the vast Amazon Basin to the extensive Guaran aquifer, to the frozen glaciers high in the Andes, Latin
America is rich in water -a key resource in the regions development. Enormous progress has
been made in the last two decades in extending water access across the region, with 70
million more people served in the urban centers than at the turn of the millennium.
Furthermore, many countries within the region, and especially Brazil, have become examples for
managing water resources. There are several examples where Latin America is fairly
advanced with respect to water governance and the fact is that other countries are looking
towards Latin America in order to learn, explained World Bank Water Expert Karin Kemper. One such
example is the management of Brazils many river basins. Accepting that all users have an interest in how water is
managed, over the past 15 years Brazil has paved the way for participatory approach to managing water supplies.
Consequently, users from across the spectrum water supply companies, irrigators, energy
providers and representatives from both state and federal government as well as civil society -
are involved in the decision making process, in order to take into consideration their differing
water needs. Initially pioneered in So Paulo, this inclusive approach to water governance is particularly successful
in the state of Cear and is today enshrined in both federal and state law. Open Quotes The poorest are most
affected by droughts and floods, they are the least able to organize themselves against such occurrences, and have
little access to financial tools, such as savings and insurance. Close Quotes Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez World Bank Regional
Director for Sustainable Development A water-rich region, Latin America is home to nearly 31% of the worlds
freshwater resources, but it also has large arid and semi-arid areas with recurring droughts common from Mexico to
Chile. Water scarcity is expected to increase in several areas due to climate change, including in the Andes, where the
melting glaciers will have a great effect on the water supply. The full impact of these changes is still unknown, but
experts agree that changes in water supply will be one of the first, and most dramatic, effects. Consequently,
preventing the regions poorest and most vulnerable populations from falling back into poverty will need a regional
yearly investment. Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez, World Bank Regional Director for Sustainable Development, estimates that
climate change adapting measures have a cost of US$15 billion to US$20 billion a year for Latin America and the
Caribbean. The poorest are most affected by droughts and floods, they are the least able to organize themselves
against such occurrences, and have little access to financial tools, such as savings and insurance," Ijjasz explained.
Access to water services is still highly unequal. Rapid urbanization in the region means water and sanitation services
have been heavily weighted towards the urban populations, to the detriment of interior, rural communities. But
despite enormous progress over the past 20 years, 30 million Latin Americans are still without access to safe drinking
water.. Consequently, a key challenge for many Latin American countries is to further improve the way this scarce
resource is managed. Infrastructure, such as storage and distribution systems, needs to be put into place, along with
ways to allocate water across sectors to enable economic growth to be maintained in an environmentally sustainable
and socially inclusive manner. While the region has already met the Millennium Development Goal target for water,
rural sanitation is lagging behind. Currently, 100 million people still lack access to any sanitation, with rural access at
just 60%. Additionally, only 20% of waste water in Latin America is treated, leading to the pollution of rivers and
coastal areas, which not only exposes the resident population to toxins and disease but also causes billions to be lost
in potential tourism and real estate revenues. By extending access to water and improving governance, Latin America
has made clear progress over the past two decades. And while inequalities remain, 96% of Latin
Americans now have access to a clean, safe water source. However, if water security is to be protected
in the future, now is the time for the region to prepare for a changing climate.
Resource scarcity leads to cooperation, not war empirically proven

Dalby 6 (Simon, Dept. Of Geography, Carleton University, "Security and
environment linkages revisited" in Globalisation and Environmental Challenges:
Reconceptualising Security in the 21st Century,
www.ntu.edu.sg/idss/publications/SSIS/SSIS001.pdf)
In parallel with the focus on human security as a necessity in the face of both natural and artificial forms of vulnerability, recent
literature has emphasised the opportunities that environmental management presents for political cooperation between states and
other political actors, on both largescale infrastructure projects as well as more traditional matters of wildlife and new concerns with
biodiversity preservation (Matthew/Halle/Switzer 2002). Simultaneously, the discussion on water wars, and in
particular the key finding the shared resources frequently stimulate cooperation rather than
conflict, shifted focus from conflict to the possibilities of environmental action as a mode of
peacemaking. Both at the international level in terms of environmental diplomacy and
institution building, there is considerable evidence of cooperative action on the part of many
states (Conca/Dabelko 2002). Case studies from many parts of the world suggest that cooperation
and diplomatic arrangements can facilitate peaceful responses to the environmental
difficulties in contrast to the pessimism of the 1990s where the focus was on the potential for
conflicts. One recent example of the attempts to resolve difficulties in the case of Lake Victoria
suggests a dramatic alternative to the resource war scenarios. The need to curtail over-fishing in the lake
and the importance of remediation has encouraged cooperation; scarcities leading to conflict arguments have not been common in
the region, and they have not influenced policy prescriptions (Canter/Ndegwa 2002). Many conflicts over the
allocations of water use rights continue around the world but most of them are within states
and international disputes simply do not have a history of leading to wars.

Nanotech doesnt solve clean watercost hurdlesprefer our defense
assumes their warrants

Schummer 07
(Joachim, Department of Philosophy, University of Darmstadt, The Impact of
Nanotechnologies on Developing Countries, 2007,
http://joachimschummer.net/papers/2007_Nano-Developing-Countries_Althoff-et-
al.pdf//VS)
Against the background of the real problems and their existent efficient solutions, one needs
to be careful with media reports announcing nanotechnologys solution to the drinking water
problems of the developing world. There is no doubt that micro- and nanoporous filter
development can lead to improved removal of microbes and other pollutants from water, and that
desalination plants can open up new water sources. However, these filters and plants will hardly be
affordable and manageable by the neediest in the foreseeable future. One should also note that
filters based on zeolites and ceramics, which are nowadays subsumed under nanotechnology, have been
produced since many decades,17 without meeting the needs of developing countries. And the
latest approach, the use of the extremely expensive carbon nanotubes in water filters, is a project by the US
military that, rather than helping developing countries, should provide water pure enough to use for
medical purposes right on the battlefield.

AT: Heg decline
The US doesnt lead the world anymore- the transition is smooth
NPR 11(National Public Radio, Interview of Fareed Zakaria, June 30 2011, What Does A 'Post-
American World' Look Like?, http://www.npr.org/2011/06/30/137522219/what-does-a-post-
american-world-look-like,PS)
Thirty years ago, the United States dominated the world politically, economically and
scientifically. But today? "The tallest building in the world is now in Dubai, the biggest factory in
the world is in China, the largest oil refinery is in India, the largest investment fund in the
world is in Abu Dhabi, the largest Ferris wheel in the world is in Singapore," notes Fareed Zakaria.
"And ... more troublingly, [the United States is] also losing [its] key grip on indices such as patent creation, scientific creations and
things like that which are really harbingers of future economic growth." Zakaria, the host of CNN's Fareed Zakaria GPS and an
editor at large for Time magazine, charts the fall of America's dominance and the simultaneous rise of the rest of the world in his
book The Post-American World: Release 2.0, which shows how the collapse of communism and the Soviet empire as well as the
rise of global markets has leveled the playing field for many other countries around the world. "The result is you have
countries all over the world thriving and taking advantage of the political stability they have
achieved, the economic connections of a global market, the technological connection into this
market," he tells Fresh Air's Terry Gross. "And we are all witnesses to this phenomenon." America, Zakaria
says, is also starting to lag behind other countries in education, building a competitive workforce, and fostering new energy and
digital infrastructure to support those workers all markers of long-term economic growth. He says America is now
heading toward what he calls a "post-American" world, in which the United States' share of
the "global pie" is much smaller as the rest of the globe begins to catch up. "In economic
terms, the rise of the rest [of the globe] is a win-win," he says. "The more countries that get rich [and]
the larger the world economy, the more people there are producing, consuming, investing,
saving, loaning money. ... If we didn't have the rest of the world growing, the United States
economy would be in much worse shape than it is today."

No great power war from hegemony decline

Haass 08(Richard N. Haass, Council on Foreign Relations, April 15 2008, Ask the Expert: What
Comes After Unipolarity?,, http://www.cfr.org/world/ask-expert-comes-after-
unipolarity/p16063,PS)
Does a non polar world increase or reduce the chances of another world war? Will nuclear
deterrence continue to prevent a large scale conflict? Sivananda Rajaram, UK Richard Haass: I believe the
chance of a world war, i.e., one involving the major powers of the day, is remote and likely to stay
that way. This reflects more than anything else the absence of disputes or goals that could lead to such a conflict. Nuclear
deterrence might be a contributing factor in the sense that no conceivable dispute among the
major powers would justify any use of nuclear weapons, but again, I believe the fundamental
reason great power relations are relatively good is that all hold a stake in sustaining an
international order that supports trade and financial flows and avoids large-scale conflict. The
danger in a nonpolar world is not global conflict as we feared during the Cold War but smaller but still highly costly conflicts
involving terrorist groups, militias, rogue states, etc.

AT: Inevitable
Nanotechnology not inevitable absent the plan
Sparrow 13(Dr Rob Sparrow, School of Philosophy and Bioethics, Monash University, Azo
Nano, June 11 2013, Nanotechnology Progress, Dangers and Widespread Hypocrisy, A Bioethics
Essay By Dr Robert Sparrow From Monash University,
http://www.azonano.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=1894,PS)
According to many pundits, the nanotechnological revolution is not only going to change the
world, it is going to do so regardless of what you or I think about it. Many writers on nanotechnology
seem to feel that technological development has its own dynamic which is effectively beyond human control. As a result, the
development of nanotechnology is, we are told, inevitable. The future is coming and we had better get ready for it. Yet this
certainty that the development of nanotechnology is inevitable seems to be matched by
hysteria at the possibility that public hostility to this technology, lack of investment, or a
hostile regulatory environment, might prevent it. Indeed, it sometimes seems that the main function of the
claim that the development anotechnology is inevitable is to support the argument that we must get ready for it. Unless we
direct more money into funding this technology, change our intellectual property law, and
educate the public about the benefits of nanotechnology, the nanotechnology revolution will
not arrive. Of particular note in this context is the frequency with which consumer hostility to GMOs is mentioned in discussions
on nanotechnology as an example of the way in which public concerns about safety and benefit can remove the incentive to develop
certain types of product and thus effectively halt the development of a technology. Those involved with developing and promoting
nanotechnology are terribly concerned to avoid any similar public backlash against nanotechnology. Of course, the possibility
that the public might reject nanotechnology suggests that the nanotechnological revolution is
not inevitable after all.

Solvency
Patenting failures and lack of incentives kills nanotech development

Kay et al 09
School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology; Shapira- Manchester
Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, University of
Manchester (Luciano, Philip, Developing nanotechnology in Latin America,
02/11/2009,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2988220/#__ffn_sectitle//VS)
Finally, the lack of nanotechnology patenting activity has two possible explanations. The first is that
these countries are in an early stage of nanotechnology development and only after some years they will be able to transform
research knowledge to intellectual property that can be used for the commercialization of nanotechnology applications and
nanotechnology-based products. The second explanation has more policy implications: not only may these countries be
undertaking nanotechnology research that is not aligned to local industry priorities but there
may also be insufficient incentives for researchers to collaborate with incumbent industries
and to initiate their own start-up enterprises. If Latin American S&T policymakers want to
foster the development of nanotechnology and increase transfer to and take-up by key
industry sectors, they may need to encourage research and incentives that can lead to the
commercialization of new technologies in national and international markets. For this, it may be
necessary to increase industryacademy collaborations, intellectual property protection, and
enterprise supportall pending tasks for Latin American countries (Kraul 2003; Fernndez and
Schatzmann 2007; Foladori and Fuentes 2007).

Plan doesnt solve nanotechemployment, not R&D, is key to innovation and
development

Waheed 12
(A. Waheed, Innovation Determinants and Innovation as a Determinant: Evidence from Developing Countries, 2012,
xwww.merit.unu.edu/publications/uploads/1361187610.pdf//VS)
The firm size-innovation and the market competition-innovation relationships have been studied
intensively in developed countries, but the research body evaluating the developing world is still
humble. This chapter contributed to this research field by analyzing both innovation input and output. According
to our analysis, the impact of firm size on innovation is similar to developed countries. We
found that employment has a significant, positive impact on the likelihood of R&D and of
product innovation, and employment increases R&D expenditure at a less than proportional rate. We
observed that product market competition is a positive stimulus for product innovation, but has no influence on R&D
expenditure per employee. The reason for these findings could be that the pressure from the competitors in the
product market triggers an immediate response in terms of final products. Since R&D is a long term
process, firms may prefer to fight competitive pressures through slight modification
of existing products and/or the imitation of developed countries innovations, which may
be achieved quicker and without costly R&D expenditures. Country-specific and industry specific characteristics were
observed to be significant factors for both innovation input and output. We failed to find a significant
relationship between R&D intensity (R&D expenditure per employee) and the likelihood of
product innovation. Our two interpretations of this finding are that firms, especially in developing countries,
may not have a formal R&D structure and underestimate their actual expenditure, which in turn leads to an
underestimation of the significance of their R&D expenditure. Secondly, developing countries are more
prone to imitate (of developed countries products) than to engage in radical product innovation,
which entails lower R&D expenditure. Moreover, we observed that the relationship between R&D
intensity and product innovation is independent of size classes and of product market
competition environments.

Nanotech reduces raw material demandkills developing economies

Foladori 06
(professor in the Doctoral Program on Development Studies, Universidad Autnoma de
Zacatecas, Mxico, Guillermo, Nanotechnology in Latin America at the Crossroads,
http://www.estudiosdeldesarrollo.net/administracion/docentes/documentos_personales/19
3983_2_International_138[1].pdf//VS)
Another problem concerning the disruptive nature of nanotechnologies is their impact on
commerce. It is likely that raw materials will become cheaper as a consequence of their being
substituted by nanotechnologies and a fall in demand. The publication of the Action Group on Erosion,
Technology and Concentration (ETC Group), The Potential Impacts of Nano-Scale Technologies on Commodity Markets: The
Implications for Commodity Dependent Developing Countries, studies the cases of the markets for rubber, platinum and copper.
There are nanotechnological procedures that will substantially improve the durability of
automobile tires, the main market for rubber, and this could significantly reduce the worldwide demand for
the product. Carbon nanotubes could become an effective competitor for copper cables,
greatly affecting worldwide demand for this product. Platinum could be replaced by
nanotechnology as a catalyst in converters, batteries, and other products. These are some examples of the pressure
that countries which sell these raw materials will face when they begin to be substituted by
nanotechnology products. The publication concludes as follows: Without critical planning and assessment, commodity
dependent developing countries are more likely to be on the receiving end of nanotechs
potentially adverse impactsrather than active participants in shaping nanotechs role in
society.49 There is also the matter of unemployment. The latest report of the work group on science and
technology of the United Nations Millennium Program considers nanotechnology to be more important to the developing
world because, among other things, it means reduced work, land, and maintenance.50 However, the possibility of
an increase in unemployment has not been considered by proponents of nanotechnology
initiatives.

U.S. Model Bad

US regulation is comparatively horrible

Soliman 12
[Adam Soliman is an agricultural economist, law school graduate and researcher focused on
legal and economic issues in the Agriculture, Resource & Food sectors. The Need for Stronger
Nanotechnology Regulation October 16 2012 http://www.foodsafetynews.com/2012/10/why-
we-should-have-more-regulations-on-nanotechnology/#.UexFMD772oc]
Legislation governing the use of nanoparticles is limited around the world, particularly in the U.S.
In 2007, a report released by the U.S. Food and Drug Administrations Nanotechnology Task Force
33 stated that despite the special properties of nanomaterials, no further regulation is needed
(3). This report was opposed by environmental group Friends of the Earth and the International Center for Technology Assessment.
The organizations filed a petition with FDA urging it to take action to highlight the risks associated with nanotechnology (4). As a
result, the federal Nanotechnology Research and Development Act was passed in 2003. The Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) was
also developed to assess the risk posed by substances, and to provide authority to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in
regulating them (5). The TSCA set out provisions to protect living systems against unknown risks of new or engineered substances by
regulating and testing new and existing chemicals. However, the EPA does not hold much sway in the American
political sphere. In fact, the U.S. legislature does not even require pre-market approval of
consumer goods; the FDA relies solely on manufacturers to ensure product safety (6). Moreover,
only evidence of a very specific harm associated with a product can elicit legal restrictions, and
nanoparticles have not yet been tested for such specific risks.

US model fails regulatory gaps, inconsistencies, and legal vulnerability

Marchant, Sylvester, and Abbott 8
[Gary Marchant, Ph. D., is a Professor of Law; Executive Director & Faculty Fellow, Center for the Study of Law, Science, &
Technology; Lincoln Professor of Emerging Technologies, Law & Ethics at the College of Law at ASU, Douglas Sylvester is the Dean of
the College of Law at ASU, Kenneth Abbott is the Senior Sustainability Scholar at Global Institute of Sustainability, Nanotechnology
regulation: the United States approach November 24 2008, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1305256+
Yet, some critics have identified problems with the Coordinated Framework, including the
inevitable existence of regulatory gaps and overlaps when several different agencies attempt to
address the same general technology (Mandel, 2004). There are also inconsistencies in which similar
products are regulated very differently, because they fall on different sides of jurisdictional
divides. For example, Baccilus thurigiensis (Bt) resistant corn is subject to extensive regulation by EPA under the Federal
Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA), because it qualifies as a pesticide, whereas RoundUp Ready corn essentially gest a
regulatory free pass because it does not fall within the jurisdiction of one of the ten statutes within the Coordinated Framework. Yet
another concern is that many of the existing statutes have to be stretched to cover applicable
biotechnology products, making suspect the agencys jurisdiction to regulate biotechnology products
using those statutory interpretations. Critics are concerned that this legal vulnerability makes the
regulatory agencies reluctant to take strict regulatory actions that might provoke an industry
legal challenge. Although the reviews of the success and effectiveness of the Coordinated Framework are mixed, the US
has elected to pursue a comparable approach for regulating nanotechnology. Government
officials have expressly stated that no new statutes are required to regulate nanotechnology (Risk
Policy Report, 2006). Existing statutes administered by the various federal agencies can be applied
based on the category a product falls into. The National Nanotechnology Initiatives (NNI) is the
equivalent of the Coordinated Framework for Regulation of Biotechnology, and like the Coordinated Framework is
administered by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policys National Science and Technology Committee. An inter-
agency coordinating committee known as the Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology (NSET) Committee has been
established as a sub-committee of the Nano Science and Technology Council (NSTC), which is the equivalent of the Biotechnology
Science Coordinating Committee (BSCC). Over 20 different federal agencies are represented on the NSET. The NNI
has given considerable emphasis to ethical, legal and social issues. The NNI Strategic Plan expressly divides the
responsible development of nanotechnology into two categories: (a) environmental health, and
safety (EHS) implications; and (b) ethical, legal and other societal issues (NSTC, 2004). A working group on
Nanomaterials Environmental and Health Implications (NEHI) was established in 2004 under the NSET to address and coordinate
environmental and health issues with nanotechnology. With the decision having been made, at least for the present
time, to adopt no new regulatory statues to address nanotechnology, the focus has shifted to the
actions of the individual agencies in applying their existing statutory authorities to
nanotechnology products. The three most active US federal agencies in this regard are US EPA, FDA and NIOSH.


If the US model is good, its only because it had a biotech model to begin with
Mexico cant model it because the entire Mexican legal system would have to
be rehashed

Marchant, Sylvester, and Abbott 8
[Gary Marchant, Ph. D., is a Professor of Law; Executive Director & Faculty Fellow, Center for the Study of Law, Science, &
Technology; Lincoln Professor of Emerging Technologies, Law & Ethics at the College of Law at ASU, Douglas Sylvester is the Dean of
the College of Law at ASU, Kenneth Abbott is the Senior Sustainability Scholar at Global Institute of Sustainability, Nanotechnology
regulation: the United States approach November 24 2008, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1305256+
The Coordinated Framework has generally been perceived as a success in the US. The commercialization has proceeded more rapidly
and extensively in the US than in any other country, without the strong public opposition that has been experienced in Europe and
other nations. In the words of one commentator, [w]here other countries have tried to write entire new
bodies of jurisprudence in response to recent medical advances, American lawmakers have said
that questions raised by biotechnology can all be answered within the body of existing law. As a
result, while other nations biotech industries have become mired down in legal wrangles, the
industry in America is booming, with 1997 sales of $US13 billion. (Katz-Stone, 1998)
Mex Infra
T
A. Interpretation economic engagement requires expanding bilateral economic relations
Kahler, 6 - Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of
California, San Diego (M., Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on
the Korean Peninsula and Across the Taiwan Strait in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p.
523-541, Sage Publications)

Economic engagement - a policy of deliberately expanding economic ties with an adversary in
order to change the behavior of the target state and improve bilateral political relations - is a
subject of growing interest in international relations. Most research on economic statecraft
emphasizes coercive policies such as economic sanctions. This emphasis on negative forms of
economic statecraft is not without justification: the use of economic sanctions is widespread
and well documented, and several quantitative studies have shown that adversarial relations
between countries tend to correspond to reduced, rather than enhanced, levels of trade (Gowa,
1994; Pollins, 1989). At the same time, however, relatively little is known about how often
strategies of economic engagement are deployed: scholars disagree on this point, in part
because no database cataloging instances of positive economic statecraft exists (Mastanduno,
2003). Beginning with the classic work of Hirschman (1945), most studies of economic
engagement have been limited to the policies of great powers (Mastanduno, 1992; Davis, 1999;
Skalnes, 2000; Papayoanou & Kastner, 1999/2000; Copeland, 1999/2000; Abdelal & Kirshner,
1999/2000). However, engagement policies adopted by South Korea and one other state
examined in this study, Taiwan, demonstrate that engagement is not a strategy limited to the
domain of great power politics and that it may be more widespread than previously recognized.
This means the plan has to be government-to-government not private economic
engagement
Daga, 13 - director of research at Politicas Publicas para la Libertad, in Bolivia, and a visiting
senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation (Sergio, Economics of the 2013-2014 Debate
Topic:
U.S. Economic Engagement Toward Cuba, Mexico or Venezuela, National Center for Policy
Analysis, 5/15, http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/Message_to_Debaters_6-7-13.pdf)

Economic engagement between or among countries can take many forms, but this document
will focus on government-to-government engagement through 1) international trade
agreements designed to lower barriers to trade; and 2) government foreign aid; next, we will
contrast government-to-government economic engagement with private economic engagement
through 3) international investment, called foreign direct investment; and 4) remittances and
migration by individuals. All of these areas are important with respect to the countries
mentioned in the debate resolution; however, when discussing economic engagement by the
U.S. federal government, some issues are more important with respect to some countries than
to others.
B. Violation the plan targets civil society
C. Voting issue

1. limits a government limit is the only way to keep the topic manageable otherwise they
could use any 3
rd
party intermediary, lift barriers to private engagement, or target civil society
it makes topic preparation impossible

2. negative ground formal governmental channels are key to predictable relations disads and
counterplans that test engagement

Politics

Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Nadbank link
Plan is unpopular bureaucracy causes backlash

Dallas Morning News July 2008 EDITORIAL: NADBank deserves U.S. funding ProQuest
Not everyone agrees about the merits of the North American Free Trade Agreement, but it's hard to argue that the North American
Development Bank, created under NAFTA, hasn't brought overwhelmingly positive changes to the border region. NADBank's good
work needs to continue, and that won't happen if Congress continues to whittle down its funding. Before
NAFTA, the border region was an environmental disaster zone. Mexican border towns dumped millions of gallons of raw sewage into
area rivers. Tap water was undrinkable. Pollution and industrial waste abounded. It's better now, but much cleanup work remains to
be done. Through grants and low-interest loans, NADBank has sparked more than $1.4 billion in public infrastructure projects on
both sides of the border. This is not sexy stuff. Much of it involves sewage-treatment plants, landfill sites, water projects and road
work. NADBank officials estimate that such projects have halted the dumping of about 300 million gallons per day of sewage into the
Rio Grande and other waterways. Washington's skepticism about NADBank has grown in recent years,
partly because the bank has been slow to disburse its funds. Bank officials say the backlog was caused by
the two-year average lead time needed to study, plan and approve each project before it could be funded. Steps are under way to
streamline its processes, bolster accountability and reduce backlogs. As the fervor over NAFTA has died down, so
has Capitol Hill's enthusiasm for funding NADBank. Initial U.S. appropriations of nearly $100
million a year have steadily been slashed since NAFTA took effect 14 years ago. The requested 2009
appropriation is only $10 million. Texas Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Cornyn have been enthusiastic supporters of NADBank
in the past. A renewed funding push by them and other border-state legislators would help ensure that the bank's important work
stays on track in the future.

Link to border security
Border security kills the deal
Grant 4-27
*David. Politics for the Christian Science Monitor. How border security 'trigger' could stop
immigration reform. The CSM, 4/27/13 ln//GBS-JV]
Congressional negotiators say immigration reform will need a border security 'trigger' to pass. But
agreeing on what counts as 'border security' won't be easy, and could determine whether
reform happens . Immigration reformers want to bring the more than 10 million undocumented immigrants out of the
shadows. Border security hawks want assurances that if they go along with that plan, they wont be back in 10
years deciding whether or not to legalize 10 million more. Whats Congress to do? Figure out a trigger, where advances in border
security are deemed sufficient to trigger the beginning of the journey to citizenship for the undocumented already in the country.
As immigration reform negotiations continue, determining just what counts as a secure border and how to
link that to plans for the undocumented will be crucial. Indeed, finding an answer could
determine whether a bipartisan immigration reform measure reaches President Obamas desk
or if 2013 is yet another disappointment for reformers. Historically, those on Capitol Hill have tried to
craft a delicate balance between border security and a path to legal status for the
undocumented. For example, the comprehensive immigration reform legislation of the George W. Bush years, which
ultimately failed, had a series of triggers. In 2009, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) of New York proposed more broadly that operational
control of the border must be achieved within a year of enactment of legislation. But those triggers aren't helpful
anymore. Most of the benchmarks for border security established in 2007, for example, have been met today, according to an
analysis by the pro-reform advocacy group Americas Voice. Border patrol staffing north of 20,000? Check: there are more than
21,000 agents on the border at present. Requirements for unmanned drones and a variety of other observation methods? All are at
or above the 2007 requirements today. Fencing? Within eight miles of the 2007 target. Department of Homeland Security Secretary
Janet Napolitano said on Tuesday that while the department lacks a single measure on which to base a trigger and that a trigger
based on any single measure would be a bad idea all the data DHS collects point to a border safer than ever before. Some
Democrats and immigration reform advocates take this to say that the border is secure
already and should not stand in the way of the undocumented becoming US citizens even if further border
security measures are needed. Republican reformers like Sen. John McCain of Arizona have a slightly different view,
holding that while the southern border certainly is far improved from nearly a decade ago theres still plenty of room
for improvement. There's no question there's been a significant reduction in illegal crossings over the past five years. But
that work is not yet complete, Senator McCain said in January at the press conference announcing a bipartisan Gang of Eights
principles. Other Republicans, like Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) of Alabama, are skeptical of such claims and believe figuring out
just what constitutes a secure border should be among the goals of a lengthy series of
hearings around immigration reform. So what do lawmakers propose to do this time around? Mr. Obamas
answer appears to be scrap the trigger altogether . His immigration statements have notably
left out any linkage between border security and permanent legal status for the undocumented,
noting in his immigration reform plan that if an undocumented person meets certain criteria including paying fines,
learning English, and waiting until all other current prospective immigrants have passed through the immigration system, there
will be no uncertainty about their ability to become US citizens .
Congress key
Mooney 13
Alex Mooney, CNN White House Producer, 2/6/13, Unions could again be key to immigration
reform, www.cnn.com/2013/02/05/politics/immigration-reform-unions
It should come as no surprise that prominent union leaders are among the first group President
Barack Obama courts as he seeks support for overhauling immigration policy. It was organized
labor that helped ensure defeat of a bipartisan effort to reform the nation's immigration laws five
years ago. At that time, the AFL-CIO and other prominent union groups came out against the initiative,
fearing a proposal for a temporary guest worker program for seasonal workers would weaken union membership and bargaining
clout. That led to a handful of liberal-leaning Democrats to vote against the bill, including Sens.
Sherrod Brown, Tom Harkin and Debbie Stabenow. Mindful that a potential split in the Democratic coalition
this time around could again prove fatal to the passage of an immigration bill, Obama met on
Tuesday with more than a dozen labor leaders.

Obamas PC and focus is key to overcome opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.

Oil DA
Mexican crude oil exports are low nowsupply and demand
EIA, 5/15/13 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Mexico Week: Crude oil moving north,
products moving south characterizes U.S.-Mexico trade",
www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=11271 //kdh)
The United States and Mexico conduct a significant amount of trade in crude oil and petroleum products, with the United States
primarily importing crude oil from Mexico and exporting refined petroleum products to Mexico. In 2012, the United States
imported nearly one million barrels per day (bbl/d) of crude oil from Mexico, while exporting 600,000 bbl/d
of petroleum products to Mexico (see chart above). The drivers for recent trends in crude oil and petroleum product trade
between the two countries include rising crude oil production in the United States, falling Mexican crude
oil production, and rising demand in Mexico for petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel.
Mexico is the third largest supplier of crude oil imports to the United States. However, the 972,000 bbl/d
of U.S. crude oil imports in 2012 was the first time since 1994 that imports from Mexico were below one
million bbl/d. Meanwhile, Mexico's use of refined petroleum products rose 20% over the past 10 years, while its capacity
remained the same. Mexico increasingly looks to the United States to meet its growing need for petroleum products. Since 2004,
U.S. exports of petroleum products to Mexicoprimarily motor gasoline and diesel fuelhave nearly tripled (see chart below).
Investing in Mexico decreases US dependence on OPEC nations
Ahdoot et. al, 1 (Jason D. Ahdoot, Attorney at the Law Offices of Jason D. Ahdoot, Masters in
Public Policy from Pepperdine University School of Law, David Vela, Charity Morsey, "Alleviating
U.S. Dependence on OPEC", Pepperdine University School of Public Policy, April 2001,
publicpolicy.pepperdine.edu/master-public-policy/content/capstones/opec.pdf //kdh)
If the U.S. invests more money in countries that have proven reserves, it may be able to lessen
dependence on oil from OPEC and safeguard itself from an oil shortage at a time of crisis or economic disruption. The
U.S. could invest in domestic production capacity, as well as production and refining facilities abroad. Currently,
non-OPEC production is concentrated in seven countries including Canada, UK Mexico, Norway, China, Russia and the US. Currently,
the Bush administration has called for an expansion in imports of petroleum from Mexico. The administration calls for more
privatization of the oil reserves in Mexico and more investment by U.S. oil producing companies. This makes sense because aside
from the fact that Mexico is one of our closest neighbors, we have a bilateral trade pact that would facilitate the export of oil,
creating a relatively safe investment opportunity. In a recent study, the British Petroleum Statistical Review, Mexico has 28.4 million
barrels of proven oil reserves as of 1999. Contracts with Mexico for the importation of oil to the U.S. have been on the rise since
1994.37 This capacity has been furthered with the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). NAFTA
has pierced through many jurisdictional barriers, allowing Americans to enjoy the importation of Mexican petroleum. Because
Mexico has large proven reserves, and the U.S. has such a high demand for petroleum, we should be
able to facilitate a mutually beneficial relationship. In Mexico, privatization of the nationalized petroleum industry may be a
challenge, but the current administration has promised to help Americans with their energy crisis. PEMEX has long been the existing
monopoly, and the Mexican Constitution stipulates that natural resources such as oil and gas must remain nationalized. In hopes of
liberalizing a sector of this monopoly and amending the constitution, newly elected Mexican President V. Fox has appointed four of
Mexicos wealthiest businessmen to the PEMEX board. The U.S. government in this instance can opt to invest in Mexicos energy
sector via NAFTA negotiations. If so, NAFTA will be renegotiated in the year 2007. This could serve as an opportunity
for the US to propose plans for a more integrated energy trade and regional self-sufficiency strategy. The
precursors for establishing a regional trade agreement with Mexico already exist within the political and economic
framework of the Mexico-U.S. NAFTA partnership. These policies are a benchmark for the
development of geographical linkages for self-sustenance. An investment in Mexico would mitigate the
impact of aggressive policies by the Middle East and its destabilizing surprises.
OPEC members will flood the market our evidence postdates yours and
assumes U.S. shale findings
McCarthey and Jones, 6/8/13 (global energy reporter for the Globe and Mail, business reporter
for the Globe and Mail, citing Saudi Arabias oil minister and OPEC, OPECs slipping grasp on the
worlds oil market, The Globe and Mail, 6/8/2013, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-
on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/opecs-slipping-grasp-on-the-worlds-oil-
market/article12431746/?page=1, JKahn)
OPEC ministers put on a brave face when pressed about one of a number of growing threats to the cartels influence over world
crude oil markets surging shale oil production in the United States. At OPECs home base in Vienna last week, Saudi Arabias
powerful oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, played down the impact of the light, sweet crude that is gushing in
record volumes from beneath North Dakotas bald prairie and the scrubby landscape of South
Texas. This is not the first time new sources of oil are discovered, dont forget history, he said.
There was oil from the North Sea and Brazil, so why is there so much talk about shale oil now? Secretary-general Abdalla El-Badri
was even more blunt: OPEC will be around after shale oil finishes. Despite the bluster from the biggest names in the 12-nation
group that supplies a third of the worlds oil, however, it is clear the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is getting
nervous, and experts are questioning how long the cartel can act together to hold sway over global oil prices. At the meeting, where
the group kept its production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, it also took the revealing step of forming a committee to study the
impact of the hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. The technology is propelling North America toward energy self-sufficiency
and may spread to other countries with their own shale oil prospects. It is a great concern for us, even if we do respect the integrity
of the U.S. to be self-sustainable in terms of oil and gas, said Nigerian Oil Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Alison-Madueke,
whose country is among the most affected in terms of the loss of exports to the United States. More than 50 years after it was
created to wrest economic power from the major oil companies, the OPEC oil cartel finds itself at risk of losing its dominant role in
the global oil market. The group is increasingly competing with new oil sources that are starting to chip away at its share in
previously secure markets, while a shaky global economy keeps demand for oil at bay. Also troubling for OPEC as it looks to protect
oil prices: One key member, long-suffering Iraq, is aiming to dramatically increase production and flex its
muscles again as a major exporter. It adds up to a nightmare scenario for the group. China, Russia and other countries
are taking early steps to emulate the North American unconventional oil boom of recent years, which has the U.S. on track to
overtake Saudi Arabia as the worlds largest oil producer. Some key OPEC members, meanwhile, are eager to
pump as much as possible to bring in badly needed revenue, rather than restrain output as part
of any concerted effort to add upward pressure to prices. The risk is that such a scenario leads
to cutthroat competition and a flood of oil in global markets, triggering a plunge in prices that
could threaten the economic and political stability of its member nations. Theres a storm
brewing on the horizon, said Greg Priddy, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a Washington-based
political risk firm, You are looking a year or two out before it becomes acute. But that is the direction we are headed. How
Saudi Arabia and the rest of the fractious group cope with its external and internal threats will
have ripple effects around the globe, from consumers ever sensitive to pump prices, to Chinas fast-growing
industries, to Albertas high-cost oil sands producers that need rich enough prices to justify new investment in their own vast
reserves. The coming supply shock There is no question that OPEC still holds sway in the market.
Traders from Singapore to New York to Calgary hang on every word its ministers utter as they enter and exit closed-door meetings,
to gauge potential impacts on prices. The groups firm hand on its oil taps in the face of growing supplies from non-OPEC countries
continues to influence international prices, which have remained around its $100 (U.S.) a barrel target. Still, OPECs world is
changing. They are not at a pivot point yet, but there are clear challenges ahead, said Daniel Yergin, vice-chairman of IHS Inc. and a
leading consultant on the global oil industry. There are geopolitical challenges regional challenges that come with the stand-off
over Irans nuclear program and the concerns Arab Gulf states have over it, and the Syrian conflict, which has elements of being a
proxy war among countries that are key members of OPEC. And there is the buildup of supply coming from North America in
particular this dramatic increase, this surge, in U.S. oil production and also the potential recovery of Iraq, [which is] very keen to
make up for lost time. As recently as last year, OPEC members dismissed booming U.S. shale oil
production as a flash in the pan. The formation of a study group to pore over the impacts shows the that thinking has
changed. It is no wonder. In its May Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency referred to growth in U.S.
light oil, along with the Canadian oil sands, as a supply shock that will be as transformative to the market over the next five years
as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15. Driven by the boom in oil production from regions such as the North Dakota
Bakken and Eagle Ford in Texas, the United States is now on track to be the worlds largest oil producer in the next decade,
according to some forecasts. The IEA, the Wests energy watchdog, has predicted the United States will pump 11.1 million barrels a
day by 2020, up from nearly seven million in 2012 and surpassing Saudi Arabia in the process. North Dakota production has more
than doubled in two years to nearly 800,000 barrels a day. Already, after decades of promises, the shale revolution is helping the
U.S. finally shake its unhealthy addiction to imported oil, as former president George W. Bush called it. That alone will not strip
OPEC of its overall market power. But cartel members such as Nigeria and Algeria that are known for producing light sweet crude
the easily flowing supplies that are low in sulphur content and simple to refine are feeling the pinch. U.S. imports from Nigeria
were more than halved to 403,000 barrels a day in March, 2013, from 913,000 in March, 2011, according to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration. Nigeria, Algeria and others have redirected exports to Asia and other markets amid expectations that
the U.S. will eventually require no such supplies, said Michael Wittner, managing director and head of commodities research for
Socit Gnrale SAs Americas operations. Is OPEC relevant? As long as the shale oil is a North American
thing, yes. Thats something I would say will hold for maybe a five-year time horizon., Mr. Wittner said. Out beyond that, the
question becomes much more complicated. He points out that other countries, including Russia, China, Australia and Argentina,
may have large shale oil reserves that could one day mean stiff new competition for the OPEC producers. As we move into
unconventionals, OPEC is no longer going to hold all the cards, said Thomas Pyle, president of the Institute for Energy Research in
Washington. Many in the U.S. see Canada and the proposal to build the Keystone XL pipeline to get increasing volumes of Alberta
bitumen to the U.S. Gulf Coast as an important move in the geopolitical game. If the U.S. government got its act together and
approved the Keystone pipeline, it would forge us a lasting relationship with Canada that would shift global energy power quite
significantly, Mr. Pyle said. An immediate concern for OPEC due to falling light oil exports to the U.S. is increased competition with
other crudes such as those from the North Sea and Russia, said Judith Dwarkin, director of research at ITG Investment Research. As
the U.S. draws less on globally traded crudes, those crudes will then be looking for a home and thats where the pressure comes
competition among non-North American internationally traded crudes of which OPEC is a big part, but there are others, Ms.
Dwarkin said So its a somewhat more competitive environment in that sense.
Oil prices key to the Russian economy
Schuman 12 (Michael, Asia and Economics Correspondent TIME, B.A. in Asian History and
Political Science University of Pennsylvania, M.A. in International Affairs Columbia University,
Why Vladimir Putin Needs Higher Oil Prices, Time, 7-5,
http://business.time.com/2012/07/05/why-vladimir-putin-needs-higher-oil-prices/, Deech)

But Vladimir Putin is not one of them. The economy that the Russian President has built not only
runs on oil, but runs on oil priced extremely high. Falling oil prices means rising problems for
Russia both for the strength of its economic performance, and possibly, the strength of Putin
himself. Despite the fact that Russia has been labeled one of the worlds most promising
emerging markets, often mentioned in the same breath as China and India, the Russian
economy is actually quite different from the others. While India gains growth benefits from an
expanding population, Russia, like much of Europe, is aging; while economists fret over Chinas
excessive dependence on investment, Russia badly needs more of it. Most of all, Russia is little
more than an oil state in disguise. The country is the largest producer of oil in the world (yes,
bigger even than Saudi Arabia), and Russias dependence on crude has been increasing. About a
decade ago, oil and gas accounted for less than half of Russias exports; in recent years, that
share has risen to two-thirds. Most of all, oil provides more than half of the federal
governments revenues. Whats more, the economic model Putin has designed in Russia relies
heavily not just on oil, but high oil prices. Oil lubricates the Russian economy by making possible
the increases in government largesse that have fueled Russian consumption. Budget spending
reached 23.6% of GDP in the first quarter of 2012, up from 15.2% four years earlier. What that
means is Putin requires a higher oil price to meet his spending requirements today than he did
just a few years ago. Research firm Capital Economics figures that the government budget
balanced at an oil price of $55 a barrel in 2008, but that now it balances at close to $120. Oil
prices today have fallen far below that, with Brent near $100 and U.S. crude less than $90. The
farther oil prices fall, the more pressure is placed on Putins budget, and the harder it is for him
to keep spreading oil wealth to the greater population through the government. With a large
swath of the populace angered by his re-election to the nations presidency in March, and
protests erupting on the streets of Moscow, Putin can ill-afford a significant blow to the
economy, or his ability to use government resources to firm up his popularity.

Russian economic decline causes nuclear war
Filger 9 (Sheldon, Correspondent Huffington Post, Russian Economy Faces Disastrous Free
Fall Contraction, http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/archives/356)

In Russia, historically, economic health and political stability are intertwined to a degree that
is rarely encountered in other major industrialized economies. It was the economic stagnation of
the former Soviet Union that led to its political downfall. Similarly, Medvedev and Putin, both
intimately acquainted with their nation's history, are unquestionably alarmed at the prospect
that Russia's economic crisis will endanger the nation's political stability, achieved at great cost
after years of chaos following the demise of the Soviet Union. Already, strikes and protests are
occurring among rank and file workers facing unemployment or non-payment of their salaries.
Recent polling demonstrates that the once supreme popularity ratings of Putin and Medvedev
are eroding rapidly. Beyond the political elites are the financial oligarchs, who have been forced
to deleverage, even unloading their yachts and executive jets in a desperate attempt to raise
cash. Should the Russian economy deteriorate to the point where economic collapse is not out
of the question, the impact will go far beyond the obvious accelerant such an outcome would be
for the Global Economic Crisis. There is a geopolitical dimension that is even more relevant then
the economic context. Despite its economic vulnerabilities and perceived decline from
superpower status, Russia remains one of only two nations on earth with a nuclear arsenal of
sufficient scope and capability to destroy the world as we know it. For that reason, it is not only
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin who will be lying awake at nights over the
prospect that a national economic crisis can transform itself into a virulent and destabilizing
social and political upheaval. It just may be possible that U.S. President Barack Obama's national
security team has already briefed him about the consequences of a major economic meltdown
in Russia for the peace of the world. After all, the most recent national intelligence estimates
put out by the U.S. intelligence community have already concluded that the Global Economic
Crisis represents the greatest national security threat to the United States, due to its facilitating
political instability in the world. During the years Boris Yeltsin ruled Russia, security forces
responsible for guarding the nation's nuclear arsenal went without pay for months at a time,
leading to fears that desperate personnel would illicitly sell nuclear weapons to terrorist
organizations. If the current economic crisis in Russia were to deteriorate much further, how
secure would the Russian nuclear arsenal remain? It may be that the financial impact of the
Global Economic Crisis is its least dangerous consequence.
CP

Text: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase its
North American Development Bank border transportation infrastructure
investment in the United States under the condition that Mexico signs an Open
Skies and cross border trucking agreement.
Mexico would say yes to cross-border trucking (failure to pass agreement
would result in high retaliatory tariffs)
Cassidy 10- Senior editor William B. Cassidy covers trucking for The Journal of Commerce. (William B, Mexico Seeks to End Cross-Border Trucking Dispute,
Journal of Commerce, July 9 2010, http://www.joc.com/trucking-logistics/mexico-seeks-end-cross-border-
trucking-dispute_20100709.html) //CW
Mexico may expand the list of U.S. products facing billions of dollars in punitive tariffs unless the
Obama administration proposes a cross-border trucking program. A Mexican government official
told The Wall Street Journal Thursday that Mexico wants more than the revival of the pilot
project killed by Congress last year. If we dont see a concrete proposal from the U.S. in the
next few weeks, Mexico will exercise its legal rights, the unnamed official told the financial newspaper. Those
rights, the official said, include expanding the retaliatory tariffs. Mexico imposed punitive tariffs
on $2.4 billion worth of U.S. goods when Congress and the White House shut down a Bush-era
test of cross-border trucking. The tariffs ranged from 10 percent to 45 percent and affected 90
products. Mexico is the second-largest export market for the U.S., receiving 12 percent of U.S. exports in 2009. Almost half of
Mexicos imports are sourced from the U.S. An expansion of the retaliatory tariffs could hit agricultural exports such as corn, rice and
beans, the Council on Hemispheric Affairs said in a recent report. U.S. and Mexican officials have met several times to try to resolve
the impasse, most recently when Mexican President Felipe Caldern visited Washington in May. Transportation Secretary
Ray LaHood in May said a cross-border trucking proposal would be ready very soon, but the
White House hasnt released a draft.


An Open skies agreement would expand manufacturing greatly- analysts agree
Taylor 13 - writes at the Washington Times as the State Department correspondent. (Guy,
Obama, Pena-Nieto greet an era of wider cooperation, The Washington Times, Nov 27 2012,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/27/obama-pena-nieto-greet-an-era-of-
wider-cooperation/?page=all) //CW
U.S.-Mexico economic ties have grown quietly since the 1994 North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA), prompting some to think the two nations have a unique chance to lean on
each other for economic growth. It remains to be seen whether the administration will back a
possible open skies agreement that would lift restrictions on the movement of air traffic across
the U.S.-Mexico border or support the formalization of a cross-border trucking program. Some foreign-policy
analysts say such initiatives should be pursued aggressively during Mr. Obamas second term if
the White House is serious about increasing domestic manufacturing on everything from cars to televisions
and airplanes. The uniqueness of the U.S.-Mexico manufacturing relationship rests in the NAFTA-era
concept of co-manufacturing. Recent studies by the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars maintain that nearly 40 percent of Mexican-made products exported to the United States originated north of the border.
On Tuesday Mr. Pena Nieto said he looked forward to speaking with Mr. Obama on spurring job
growth on both sides of the border. Some Latin America experts contend that small but key
initiatives such as an open-skies or trucking agreement could dramatically expand U.S.-Mexico
manufacturing cohesion in ways that rapidly and measurably impact both countries economies.
It doesnt need to be a big free-trade agreement, said Shannon K. ONeil of the Latin American Studies
Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.


Every manufacturing company is significant to US power projection and military
sustainability
Green and Greenwalt, 6-9 - President, J.A. Green & Co., executive director of Strategic
Materials Advisory Council; Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Industrial Policy, principal
advisor to the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition, Technology & Logistics) and the Deputy
Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition and Technology) on the defense industrial base, Staff
Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (Jeff and Bill, Protect US Manufacturing Base,
Defense News, 6-9-2013,
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130609/DEFREG02/306090006/Protect-US-
Manufacturing-Base)//BDS
The US defense industry has a proven playbook for success founded upon an elite
manufacturing base. Today, faced with deep budget cuts, the challenge for the Department of Defense is ensuring
that manufacturing base is available when crisis strikes.Strategic and innovative policy a game plan
is key for success. To illustrate, Duke University basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski begins each Olympic campaign
distributing a playbook to his team with a photo of the gold medal on the first page. This impresses upon the entire team that they
are working together with a unified vision toward one goal. Needless to say, hes been pretty successful; Coach K has four Olympic
gold medals and is the winningest coach in the history of Division I college basketball.For DoD, its playbook is its
industrial base policy. On the cover is the US as the most elite military power in the world, and
the pages map the vital manufacturers that get it there.Faced with significant budget cuts, DoD officials
responsible for industrial and manufacturing policy have repeatedly said the Pentagon can no longer afford to keep fixing million-
dollar problems with billion-dollar solutions. This is inarguable.A senior official recently added, however, We will identify critical
key suppliers that will go under because we will have made the assumption, based on our strategy moving forward, that [they are]
no longer a critical capability to our future force. Unfortunately, theres going to be a lot of bad news thats given out to
companies.Theres no denying that the industrial base will have to contract to a certain extent. But where this statement is
troubling is that the Pentagon is overlooking a pattern of acquisition problems that existed long
before the current fiscal challenges. Allowing entire sectors of key suppliers to dissolve
without addressing these root problems will have far-reaching, long-term repercussions on
the militarys ability to respond to crisis and sustain high-intensity operations.Effectively, it
would mean tearing out vital chapters from the Defense Departments playbook.To understand the
difficulties facing the Pentagon, consider a recent shortage for many US and NATO aircraft. The sole
manufacturer of a specialized wire used in aircraft radar systems ceased production.
Unfortunately, this manufacturers early warnings were only recognized by some of the services recently, prompting DoD officials to
finally begin to understand this issue.In a higher-profile case, a struggling manufacturer failed to meet
production deadlines for transmissions in Apache helicopters. DoDs solution involved
removing the transmissions from previously delivered aircraft to test the new helicopters. The fix
did nothing to improve war-fighting capability or readiness and drew fire from Capitol Hill.These aircraft
examples represent a multitude of cases that reach every branch of the military. Chinese parts were found in a
Marine Corps anti-tank weapon, and many fear the capacity to produce the Armys Abrams
tank, the Bradley fighting vehicle and other tactical wheeled vehicles may disappear.Rather than
concede the need to shrink the defense industrial base, DoD should emulate the base that it relies upon: trimming overhead and
nonessential services, streamlining management functions and, only as a last resort, passing cuts onto the critical manufacturing and
engineering jobs that require large investments of training.If the Pentagons industrial base policy enforces
deep hardware cuts, it risks sacrificing the capability that has ensured victory in each major
combat engagement since World War II. On its current path, the US may continue to lose
capabilities and only realize the impact when the original equipment manufacturer can no longer provide equipment when
needed.These examples notwithstanding, when the entire industrial base team unites around the same
playbook, past practice shows it can reach more cost-effective and sustainable outcomes. An
example is the Navys Virginia-class submarines. Despite significant consolidation in recent decades, the Navys
strategy discourages dependence on single sources of supply and retains the skilled labor required to build nuclear attack
submarines.Citing the Navys successful model while drafting the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act, Rep. Joe Courtney, D-
Conn., said, While we are all mindful of the pressures facing the defense budget, the fact remains that a steady submarine
production rate today will ensure that the Navy has the submarine force structure it needs in the future and that our industrial base
will remain stable.To maintain the worlds most elite military requires DoD officials to engage the technology
and manufacturing companies. Through engagement and collaboration, the Pentagon and industry can forge policy
utilizing government resources and authorities to maximize war-fighter capability and provide value for taxpayer dollars. With this
kind of game plan, the Defense Department can preserve resources while protecting critical sectors of its industrial base for future
needs.


Sustained power projection is key to controlling Asian conflicts specifically a
nuclear China
Schreer 12 - Deputy Head and Senior Lecturer, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Visiting
professor at ANU College of Asia and the Pacific (Benjamin, Abandonment, entrapment, and the
future of US conventional extended deterrence in East Asia (part I) , The Strategist, 21-9-2012,
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/abandonment-entrapment-and-the-future-of-us-
conventional-extended-deterrence-in-east-asia-part-i/)//BDS
http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/abandonment-entrapment-and-the-future-of-us-
conventional-extended-deterrence-in-east-asia-part-i/
In a recent contribution to The Strategist, Rod Lyon argues convincingly that Australia needs to engage its US ally
over the future credibility of its nuclear extended deterrence posture in Asia. It doesnt stop there.
Indeed, the current stand-off between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is a
timely reminder that US conventional extended deterrence also needs refinement,
particularly in East Asia. Traditionally, US conventional deterrence for its East Asian allies has relied on
direct defence, i.e. deterrence by denial through the unmatched ability to defeat any conventional
attack against its forward deployed forces and/or allied territory. Up to now thats been a
credible strategy. But today China has embarked on a long-term trajectory to contest US naval
supremacy in the first island chain, which includes Taiwan and parts of the seas surrounding
Japan. While the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) still has lots of catching up to do, the gap is slowly closing.
Already, American fixed targets (bases) in Japan and South Korea are in striking range of Chinas
growing missile arsenals. The PLA is also developing systems to pose a threat to high-value
moving targets (US carrier strike groups). The aim is to make it too costly for the United States to
intervene in a future regional crisis between China and its neighbours. This development has
important ramifications for the American deterrent posture. By raising the stakes, China makes it hard for
the United States to militarily coerce it in a future regional crisis unless major strategic interests are at
stake. Consequently, the Pentagon seems to putting a stronger emphasis on deterrence by
punishment, which relies on distant strike-capabilities and putting a greater portion of its forces out of the
PLAs missile range. In addition, recent US force posture reports stress the need for Japan and South Korea to invest more in their
own denial capabilities. And a growing number of US commentators argue that Americas ability to defend its de facto
ally Taiwan might become too costly (PDF) as its interests are merely associated with reputational risk;
notwithstanding good reasons why Taiwan also matters geostrategically to the US and its allies. However, this invokes a
classical alliance dilemma of abandonment and entrapment. A vague commitment to defend its East Asian allies
in a conflict of lesser interest to Washington not only contributes to fears of abandonment on the part of allies, it might also
encourage Chinese risk-taking. A strong commitment, however, might increase allies risk-taking during crisis and raises the spectre
of entrapment in an unwanted conflict with China. The crisis over the Senkaku islands is a case in point. Washington has urged both
parties to exercise restraint, knowing that Tokyo would expect it to come to its defence should the conflict spiral out of control.
Failure to do so would deal a mortal blow to American credibility and could lead to even greater cycles of armament in the region.
Yet, the Japanese government seems ambivalent about US commitment; it is unsure of what
exactly the US would be willing to bring to the fight. Any move to provide China with greater strategic breathing space
as its power grows thus raises critical questions about US extended deterrence relationships with its allies: how can
deterrence by punishment be credible in territorial conflicts which are vital for allies but not
for the US, particularly if it involves the risk of nuclear escalation with China? What will be the tripwire for US military
engagement in such regional conflicts between China and its allies? Or will there come a time when the US will signal to its allies and
partners that they are essentially on their own when it comes to certain disputes with China? Deterrence depends
significantly on capability and credible communication to both allies and adversaries. In East Asia,
the US needs a balanced mix of both denial and punishment capabilities. Greater investments in long-range strike have to be
combined with increased efforts to strengthen direct defence of forward deployed troops and allied territory. More needs to
be done to assist Taiwans capacity to withstand a PLA opening attack. Greater cooperation with Japan
to harden bases and to further strengthening ballistic missile defence is a welcome sign. Second, and probably much more
important, is communication. Obamas pivot announcement was a good start but it is not a strategy that sets out how the United
States aims to shape Chinese and allied behaviour, including through extended deterrence. Its odd that the last US East Asia
Strategy Report dates back to 1998. Uncertainty also surrounds the AirSea Battle operational concept, which has allies wondering if
it is more about reducing US footprint in the region than reassuring them. Just as in Western Europe during the Cold War, the United
States should clearly communicate its willingness to put forward deployed forces in East Asia in harms way. No serious Chinese
planner could assume that an attack on US forward deployed forces, fixed or moving, would be left unanswered. Finally, the US
needs to clarify whether the defence of Taiwan or territorial dispute between its allies and China are really only of reputational
interest. Ambiguity is not only counterproductive to crisis stability since it could invite Chinese miscalculations about Americas
intentions and will to fight, it also puts into question the fundamental principle of solidarity on which any alliance rests. This matters
to Australia for at least three reasons. First, Australias prosperity is critically dependent on peace and stability in East Asia. Second,
over time the same deterrence dilemma will also affect US alliances and security partnership in Southeast Asia, a region much closer
to home. And thirdly, American shifts in deterrent posture have direct implications for Australia, which will be discussed in part II.

Neolib
The aff perpetuates an asymmetric framework of controlled trade, relations,
and border policy between the United States and Mexico. This framework
causes many of the impacts the affirmative tries to solve.
Fernndez-Kelly and Massey 2007Patricia Fernandez-Kelly holds a joint position in the department of sociology and
Office of Population Research at Princeton University. She has written extensively on globalization, industrial recomposition,
international migration, and gender. Douglas S. Massey is the Henry G. Bryant Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs at Princeton
University and president of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. * Borders for Whom? The Role of
NAFTA in Mexico-U.S. Migration. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social
Science , Vol. 610, NAFTA and Beyond: Alternative Perspectives in the Study of Global Trade and
Development (Mar., 2007), pp. 98-118]//MM

Conclusions In this article, we have developed a synoptic account of the historical events leading to the passage of NAFTA, a treaty
ostensibly intended to reduce barriers to investment, open markets, and fuel economic development on both sides of the border.
We have argued, however, that a major objective behind NAFTA was not simply the liberalization of
trade but the creation of suitable conditions for the realization of profits by U.S. financial
institutions and manufacturers through carefully regulated investment in Mexico. In that sense,
NAFTA is more about controlled than free trade. Our historical account of the events leading to the
implementation of NAFTA revealed critical alliances on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. The financial crisis of the
1980s in Latin America, and consequently in the United States, brought about a new coalition that included
U.S. banking interests and their representatives in Washington, Mexican public officials, and
large business interests in both countries. In essence, the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s acted as an agent
for economic reconfiguration and the assumption of new state functions on both sides of the border. NAFTA's silence with
respect to labor rights and worker mobility is comprehensible in the observation that,
contrary to the basic precepts of the European Union and its project of political and economic integration,
the overarching goal of the treaty was to advance the economic interests of a new binational
class of investors, not the fortunes of citizens in general. In that respect, NAFTA may be seen as part of a class
project (Harvey 2007 [this volume]). Although the treaty may have had mixed effects on workers in Mexico and the United States, its
effects in terms of profits and capital accumulation are clearnever before have large firms experienced such an economic bonanza.
At the same time, the period coinciding with NAFTA's implementation has witnessed significant
growths in class inequality in the two countries. Unique in the international landscape is the contradiction of
attempting to liberalize trade while at the same time trying to force workers to remain fixed in space. The refusal on the
part of the architects of NAFTA to consider labor flows as part of the neoliberal project has
given rise to several unintended consequences. First, the reduction of public spending in
Mexico, the removal of subsidies to subsistence agriculture, the opening of feed and seed
markets, and the commercialization of communal lands have had a displacing effect, leading
peasants to seek economic opportunities in the neighboring country. Second, the continuation of migration flows
have [sic] been met in the United States with growing attempts at curtailment. Since 1986, and
especially in the 9/11 aftermath, U.S. immigration policy has become increasingly repressive and equally
ineffective. Border blockades have led would-be immigrants to more remote and hazardous points of entry, boosting the
number of deaths but reduc ing the probability that they will be detained. Paradoxically, greater repression has not
reduced the likelihood of undocumented migration. Third, tighter migration policies have also
fomented the growth of a finely tuned machine of smugglers and false document
manufacturers, all of whom are paid sizeable sums to aid immigrants. That vibrant economic
sector increasingly includes drug traders and sex traffickers whose resources are now needed to oil the
wheels of undocumented migration. Fourth, and perhaps most important, the harsher character of U.S.
immigration policy is leading to the expansion of the undocumented Mexican population in
the United States. Immigrants are behaving just as economists would predict by engaging in cost-benefit calculations that
lead them to stay in areas of destination for longer periods of time to avoid the risks of exit and reentry. The presence of an
expanded undocumented population on American soil does not bode well for individuals or families. Without avenues for
integration, in the face of public hostility, and with few opportunities to improve their
educational and occupational standing, many of those immigrants may yet become part of a
new Latino underclass. This dire forecast is not only counter to the image of a country defined by democracy, fair play,
and opportunity but is also in conflict with the stated objectives of a treaty that has demolished barriers for capital with
unprecedented success. Time is running out, but perhaps it is still possible to reconcile facts with theory. Borders for whom? The
present situation indicates that borders stand mainly to contain the most vulnerable sectors
of society while they become more and more permeable for those in positions of power.
Unchecked neoliberal expansions risks extinction
Nhanenge 7 *Jytte Masters @ U South Africa, ECOFEMINSM: TOWARDS INTEGRATING THE
CONCERNS OF WOMEN, POOR PEOPLE AND NATURE INTO DEVELOPMENT]
There is today an increasing critique of economic development, whether it takes place in the North or in the South. Although
the world on average generates more and more wealth, the riches do not appear to "trickle down" to the
poor and improve their material well-being. Instead, poverty and economic inequality is growing. Despite the
existence of development aid for more than half a century, the Third World seems not to be "catching up" with
the First World. Instead, militarism, dictatorship and human repression is multiplied. Since the mid 1970,
the critique of global economic activities has intensified due to the escalating deterioration of
the natural environment. Modernization, industrialisation and its economic activities have been
directly linked to increased scarcity of natural resources and generation of pollution, which increases
global temperatures and degrades soils, lands, water, forests and air. The latter threat is of great
significance, because without a healthy environment human beings and animals will not be able to
survive. Most people believed that modernization of the world would improve material well-being for all. However, faced
with its negative side effects and the real threat of extinction, one must conclude that
somewhere along the way "progress" went astray. Instead of material plenty, economic development
generated a violent, unhealthy and unequal world. It is a world where a small minority live in material
luxury, while millions of people live in misery. These poor people are marginalized by the global
economic system. They are forced to survive from degraded environments; they live without personal or social security; they
live in abject poverty, with hunger, malnutrition and sickness; and they have no possibility to speak up for themselves and demand a
fair share of the world's resources. The majority of these people are women, children, traditional peoples, tribal peoples, people
of colour and materially poor people (called women and Others). They are, together with nature, dominated by the
global system of economic development imposed by the North. It is this scenario, which is the subject of the
dissertation. The overall aim is consequently to discuss the unjustified domination of women, Others and nature and to show how
the domination of women and Others is interconnected with the domination of nature. A good place
to start a discussion about domination of women, Others and nature is to disclose how they disproportionately must carry the
negative effects from global economic development. The below discussion is therefore meant to give an idea of the "flip-side" of
modernisation. It gives a gloomy picture of what "progress" and its focus on economic growth has meant for women, poor people
and the natural environment. The various complex and inter-connected, negative impacts have been ordered into four crises. The
categorization is inspired by Paul Ekins and his 1992 book "A new world order; grassroots movements for global change". In it, Ekins
argues that humanity is faced with four interlocked crises of unprecedented magnitude. These
crises have the potential to destroy whole ecosystems and to extinct the human race. The first
crisis is the spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, together with the high level of
military spending. The second crisis is the increasing number of people afflicted with hunger and
poverty. The third crisis is the environmental degradation. Pollution, destruction of ecosystems and extinction
of species are increasing at such a rate that the biosphere is under threat. The fourth crisis is
repression and denial of fundamental human rights by governments, which prevents people from developing their
potential. It is highly likely that one may add more crises to these four, or categorize them differently, however, Ekins's division is
suitable for the present purpose. (Ekins 1992: 1).
The alternative is a discursive rejection of the 1AC. Only a rejection through
discourse solves- otherwise the system gets tangled
Springer 12- University of Victoria, Department of Geography and History (Simon,
Neoliberalism as discourse: between Foucauldian political economy andMarxian
poststructuralism, 5/12, http://academia.edu/592370/Neoliberalism _as_
discourse_between_Foucauldian_political_economy_and_Marxian_poststructuralism)//AK

Suggesting that there is no entry point is not meant to imply an absence of historical trajectory to the idea of neoliberalism, it is
simply meant as a recongured understanding of historical materialism through a Foucauldian archeology. So while Pecks (2008)
account of the prehis-tories of protoneoliberalism argues that there is a historical lineage to the development of
neo-liberalism, the lack of entry point here refers to the slow processes of discursive circulation
that allowed a fringe utopian idea to congeal as a hegemonic imperative (see Plehwe et al., 2006).There is
clearly a history, but in line with Pecks (2008, p. 4) rejection of an immaculate idea-tional ashpoint, the circuitous paths of
neoliberalism have no precise discernable beginning because it is impossible to disentangle them from previous ideologies and
discourses. In this sense neoliberalism in general is simply a semiotic sign of neoliberalization, as it is necessarily something that
stands for something else, to someone in some capacity (Danesi & Perron,1999, p. 366). For its part, the social is always a gment
of the self, which is not a coherent entity but a constitution of conicting tensions and knowledge claims (Derrida, 2002;
Lacan,1977/2006). In short, the social and the self are mutually constituted through discourse.
Accordingly, what we are left with are rearticulations and representations of neoliberal
discourse in the form of particular discourses of neoliberalization, where individual actors take a
proactive role in reshaping the formal practices of politics, policy, and administration that
comprise the dynamics and rhythms of socio-cultural change. There is no presentation or constitution, only
Representation and reconstitution, because as we produce social texts we create meanings. Such discursive
performativity, Butler (1993,p. 107) argues, appears to produce that which it names, to enact
its own referent, to name and to do, to name and to make. ... [g]enerally speaking, a
performative functions to produce that which it declares. Hence, the issue is not about a
purported reality of scientic truths, where neoliberalism is seen as an end, but the
interpretation of cultural constructs (Duncan &Ley, 1993), wherein neoliberalism becomes a
means. The implications for the current neoliberal moment is that it is just that, a transitory moment on its way to becoming
something else. And while there will be no perceptible line in the sands of history where neoliberalism categorically ends, the
patterns of contextually specic discourses of neoliberalization will eventually and inevitably mutate into something that no longer
has any resemblance to neoliberalism in general. The question then, provoked by Barnett (2005) and Castree (2006), is does
neoliberalism in general ever exist? The answer I would venture is yes, but like anything we can name, and even things we can
touch like water (to revisit Castrees peculiar analogy), they are always and only understood as representations through the
performative repercussions of discourse. Some readers might contend that this caveat amounts toa no, and they would be correct
if neo-liberalism in general is understood as a real word referent, something I have been arguing against. Again, the rejection of an
assumed real world does not refuse a certain materiality to neoliberalism or other phenomena, but instead recognizes materialism
in the Foucauldiansense of an archeology of knowledge whereby discourse and practice, or theory and event,become inseparable.
Thus, recognizing neoliberalism as a general form becomes possible once we consider it
through its discursive formation, whereby the four understandings of neoliberalism are read
as an ongoing reconstitution of a particular political rationality (Brown, 2003).Far from negating the need
for resistance to neoliberalism, recognizing neoliberalism as rep-resentation still requires social struggle. Moreover, and
notwithstanding Gibson-Grahams(1996) criticism, the building of transnational solidarity
through a larger conversation isalso needed, because such activity hastens the pace at which
neoliberalism may recede into his-torical obscurity to be replaced with a new discourse, a novel
representation that we can hope produces a more egalitarian social condition. Contestation
actively works toward and openspathways to achieving this goal (Purcell, 2008; Springer, 2010a,
2011b), and while discoursemay for a time reinscribe the power of particular logics, Foucault
(1990) insists that no discourse is guaranteed. So while particular discourses prevail in some
spaces, the potential for meanings to shift or for subaltern discourses to unsettle the orthodoxy
remains.
Econ
Economic collapse does not cause war prefer empirics
Ferguson 6 (Niall, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard
University. He is a resident faculty member of the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European
Studies. He is also a Senior Reseach Fellow of Jesus College, Oxford University, and a Senior
Fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct)
Nor can economic crises explain the bloodshed. What may be the most familiar causal chain in
modern historiography links the Great Depression to the rise of fascism and the outbreak of
World War II. But that simple story leaves too much out. Nazi Germany started the war in
Europe only after its economy had recovered. Not all the countries affected by the Great
Depression were taken over by fascist regimes, nor did all such regimes start wars of aggression.
In fact, no general relationship between economics and conflict is discernible for the century as
a whole. Some wars came after periods of growth, others were the causes rather than the
consequences of economic catastrophe, and some severe economic crises were not followed by
wars.

Relations
Relations High now 2012 summit proves Mexico is willing to cooperate on all
issues
Villarreal 12 (M. Angeles, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, August 9, 2012
U.S.-Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32934.pdf) DF
Regulatory Cooperation
The United States, Mexico, and Canada have made efforts since 2005 to increase cooperation on
security and economic issues through various endeavors, most notably by participating in
trilateral summits known as the North American Leaders Summits. The most recent Summit was
hosted by President Barack Obama on April 2, 2012, in Washington, DC, at the White House,
where he met with Mexican President Felipe Caldern and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen
Harper to discuss the economic well-being, safety, and security of the United States, Mexico,
and Canada. After the meeting, the three leaders issued a joint statement in which they
renewed their commitment to North American cooperation in the following key areas of
interest: protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR); enhancement of
collective energy security, including the safe and efficient exploration and exploitation of
resources; advancement of the goals of the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas and
enhancement of electricity interconnection in the Americas; support of efforts to advance a
lasting global solution to the challenge of climate changes; and the recognition of the
importance of adopting the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, including Canadas
commitment to ratifying the Convention and Mexicos necessary preparations for signing it. In
addition, the leaders announced the North American Plan for Animal and Pandemic Influenza
(NAPAPI) to strengthen North Americas response to future animal and pandemic influenza
events. In the area of strengthening security in the Americas and concerns about transnational
organized crime, the three governments agreed to launch in 2012 a consolidated Central
America Integration System-North America Security Dialogue to deepen regional security
coordination and cooperation.

US- Mexico relations are on the upswing shift to economic focus now
Nelson et. al 13 (May 2, 2013 Collin McCain Nelson and Peter Nicholas Senior Writers at the
Wall Street Journal (WSJ) Mexico, U.S. Leaders Try To Deepen Economic Ties
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324766604578459190363300754.html)- RT


MEXICO CITYPresident Barack Obama offered his support Thursday for Mexico's shifting
security strategy as he called for a greater focus on economic ties in a relationship between
the two countries that often has been dominated by issues of drugs and illegal immigration.
Mr. Obama arrived for a two-day visit amid signs that Mexico is moving to reduce the violent
tempo of its yearslong war against drug traffickers. At the same time, President Enrique Pea
Nieto is revamping his law enforcement bureaucracy, a move that will affect coordination with
U.S. agencies. Previously, U.S. law-enforcement officials enjoyed widespread freedom of
contact with individual Mexican agencies. The reorganization will centralize those contacts
within a beefed up Interior Ministry. Mr. Obama, appearing with Mr. Pea Nieto at a joint
news conference, said only Mexicans could decide their country's security policies. But he
added: "I agreed to continue our close cooperation on security, even as the nature of that
cooperation will evolve." Mr. Pea Nieto said Mexico remained committed to "fighting
organized crime in all its modalities." But he has signaled a shift from the country's militarized
campaign against drug cartels, which critics say has stoked violence, leading in the last six
years to more than 60,000 deaths and 20,000 disappearances, most of them victims of fighting
between feuding crime organizations. Mexican officials deny that these changes will lessen
Mexico's coordination and cooperation with U.S. law enforcement efforts. "Cooperation
continues to be the same, it's just that it's in a more orderly manner, using the channels that
should be used everywhere" said one senior Mexican official. While the issue of security looms
large during Mr. Obama's trip to Mexico, his administration has tried to focus this visit on
broadening economic relations and spurring growth on both sides of the border. "Mexico and
the United States have one of the largest, most dynamic relationships of any two countries on
Earth," Mr. Obama said in the Treasury Room of the National Palace, adding: "Too often, two
issues get attention: security or immigration." After a private meeting with Mr. Pea Nieto, Mr.
Obama said at the news conference that the two countries plan to deepen mutual ties to make
both more competitive in global trade. He said that Vice President Joe Biden would be part of a
new "high-level dialogue" between U.S. and Mexican officials. However, the two also
exchanged views on immigration issues, which are sensitive on both sides of the border. Mr.
Obama traveled to Mexico as U.S. lawmakers continue work on rewriting immigration laws
an effort that would affect the more than 11 million Mexicans who live in the U.S. Mr. Obama
predicted Congress would pass an immigration overhaul, despite pessimism about its prospects
from U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), one of the bill's architects. "I expressed to President Pea
Nieto that I'm optimistic about us getting this done because it's the right thing to do," Mr.
Obama told reporters. While the debate in the U.S. has focused on questions about border
security and a path to citizenship, Messrs. Obama and Pea Nieto were careful in addressing
these topics in Mexico City, considering how their comments would be received by people in
both countries. Ted Piccone, senior fellow and deputy director for foreign policy at the
Brookings Institution, said Mexicans now accept border security as the political price that
must be paid to ensure that other changes are made to immigration laws. Administration
officials have said they are confident Mexican officials will respect the fact that these are issues
for U.S. leaders to resolve. "We've emphasized on our side that this is a domestic political
issue primarily," said Ricardo Zuniga, special assistant to the U.S. president and senior director
for Western hemisphere affairs. Mr. Pea Nieto echoed that sentiment, praising the
leadership of Mr. Obama and Congress on the issue and wishing them well. Mexico
understands that this is a domestic affair for the U.S., he said. While immigration and security
remain prominent in this week's talks, the administration's goal for this trip, is to look beyond
those issues. "There's been a view around for a while now that the bilateral relationship, at
least, with Mexico has been kind of dominated by drugs and violence," said Joshua Meltzer, a
global economy and development fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Latin america literally poses no security threat
Naim 6 (Moises, Foreign Policy no157 40-3, 45-7 N/D 2006, editor of foreign policy magazine)
For decades, Latin America's weight in the world has been shrinking. It is not an economic
powerhouse, a security threat, or a population bomb. Even its tragedies pale in comparison to Africa's. The
region will not rise until it ends its search for magic formulas. It may not make for a good sound bite, but patience is Latin America's
biggest deficit of all. Latin America has grown used to living in the backyard of the United States. For decades, it has been a region
where the U.S. government meddled in local politics, fought communists, and promoted its business interests. Even if the rest of the
world wasn't paying attention to Latin America, the United States occasionally was. Then came September 11, and even the United
States seemed to tune out. Naturally, the world's attention centered almost exclusively on terrorism, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq,
and Lebanon, and on the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran. Latin America became Atlantis--the lost continent. Almost
overnight, it disappeared from the maps of investors, generals, diplomats, and journalists. Indeed, as one commentator recently
quipped, Latin America can't compete on the world stage in any aspect, even as a threat. Unlike
anti-Americans elsewhere, Latin Americans are not willing to die for the sake of their
geopolitical hatreds. Latin America is a nuclear-weapons free zone. Its only weapon of mass
destruction is cocaine. In contrast to emerging markets like India and China, Latin America is a minor
economic player whose global significance is declining. Sure, a few countries export oil and gas, but only
Venezuela is in the top league of the world's energy market. Not even Latin America's disasters seem to elicit global concern
anymore. Argentina experienced a massive financial stroke in 2001, and no one abroad seemed to care. Unlike prior crashes, no
government or international financial institution rushed to bail it out. Latin America doesn't have Africa's famines,
genocides, an HIV/AIDS pandemic, wholesale state failures, or rock stars who routinely adopt
its tragedies. Bono, Bill Gates, and Angelina Jolie worry about Botswana, not Brazil. But just as the five-year-old war on terror
pronounced the necessity of confronting threats where they linger, it also underscored the dangers of neglect. Like Afghanistan,
Latin America shows how quickly and easy it is for the United States to lose its influence when Washington is distracted by other
priorities. In both places, Washington's disinterest produced a vacuum that was filled by political groups and leaders hostile to the
United States. No, Latin America is not churning out Islamic terrorists as Afghanistan was during the days of the
Taliban. In Latin America, the power gap is being filled by a group of disparate leaders often lumped together under the banner of
populism. On the rare occasions that Latin American countries do make international news, it's the election of a so-called populist,
an apparently anti-American, anti-market leader, that raises hackles. However, Latin America's populists aren't a monolith. Some are
worse for international stability than is usually reported. But some have the potential to chart a new, positive course for the region.
Underlying the ascent of these new leaders are several real, stubborn threads running through Latin Americans' frustration with the
status quo in their countries. Unfortunately, the United States'---and the rest of the world's--lack of interest in that region means
that the forces that are shaping disparate political movements in Latin America are often glossed over, misinterpreted, or ignored.
Ultimately, though, what matters most is not what the northern giant thinks or does as much as what half a billion Latin Americans
think and do. And in the last couple of decades, the wild swings in their political behavior have created a highly unstable terrain
where building the institutions indispensable for progress or for fighting poverty has become increasingly difficult. There is a way
out. But it's not the quick fix that too many of Latin America's leaders have promised and that an impatient population demands.

No nuke terror low threat, high security
Powell 11 Houston Chronicle writer (Stewart M., Are Potential Terrorists Crossing into
Texas From Mexico?, 12/2/11; < http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Are-
potential-terrorists-crossing-into-Texas-from-2341185.php>)//Beddow
Pakistani officials told Texas' Republican Congressman Michael McCaul on a recent visit to Karachi that potential operatives from
Pakistan, Iran, al-Qaida, the Taliban and the Haqqani network can obtain visas for Mexico from Mexican diplomatic outposts in
Pakistan far more easily than getting them for the United States, making Mexico a perfect way station. Yet despite these dire
possibilities - including Perry's contention that Hamas and Hezbollah are working in Mexico to
come to the U.S. - experts say such Iranian-financed factions are not crossing the southwest
border. They point instead to the 327 airports and border crossings in the United States where legitimate or forged passports
might be used the same way that 19 hijackers gained access to carry out the 9/11 attacks. "The last thing these
organizations want is to start out at the border with a high profile criminal act that gets
attention," says James Carafano, a West Point graduate and retired Army lieutenant colonel handling security affairs at the
Heritage Foundation. "They want to be as unobtrusive as possible." Federal law enforcement agents
picked up 445,000 border crossers last year. But only 13 Iranians were taken into custody, a
fraction of the 663 "special interest aliens" from 35 countries detained along the southwestern border for special U.S. scrutiny. None
of the Iranians - indeed none of the 663 "special interest aliens" - has faced federal prosecution on terror-related charges, according
to federal officials. No credible cases The number of Iranians apprehended by U.S. Border Patrol "has
been historically minimal," said a Department of Homeland Security official. "No credible
terrorist threat has been identified, however DHS carefully monitors any potential threats
along the Southwest border and responds accordingly."



Nieto Cred
Plan causes Nieto to lose capital trucking disputes
BBC, 09 (August 9
th
, 2009, British Broadcasting Corporation Border ban angers Mexico truckers
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8191975.stm)//JES
The issue of cross-border trucking remains a sore point between the governments of the US
and Mexico. According to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta), Mexican trucks should be able to operate in
the United States, as US trucks and Canadian trucks already do in Mexico. But last March, the US Congress withdrew
funding for an already delayed trial scheme to allow the trucks in. Mexico retaliated by
imposing tariffs on $2.4bn worth of American imports - from California grapes to Oregon French fries. 'Road to
unemployment' Those in favour of the ban, including the powerful US Teamsters labour union, say Mexico has failed to comply with
basic safety standards regarding its trucks and drivers. Those against the move, including the Mexican
government and American trade groups, say the dispute is costing businesses hundreds of
millions of dollars, and is based upon protectionism. The dispute will likely be raised by President Calderon in his meetings
with President Obama in Guadalajara. But some believe it is a side issue to a far more urgent crisis. "We don't want to work
on the other side of the border anyway," says Luis Moreno Sesma, General Manager in Nuevo Laredo of Canacar,
the Mexican truck owners' Association.

Further normalization of trade leads to desperate backlash--we have empirics
Gonzalez, 11, bachelors in political science @ Yale; JD @ Harvard Law; associate
professor of law @ Seattle U (Carmen G. Ganzalez; March 18, 2011 University of Pennsylvania Journal of
International Law An Environmental Justice Critique of Comparative Advantage: Indigenous Peoples, Trade Policy, and the Mexican
Neoliberal Economic Reforms Vol. 32, p. 754,755 http://womenontheborder.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/C.-GONZALEZ-AN-
ENVIRONMENTAL-JUSTICE-CRITIQUE-OF-COMPARATIVE-ADVANTAGE-INDIGENOUS-PEOPLES....pdf)//JES
The displacement of Mexican corn farmers as a result of the influx of highly subsidized U.S.
corn has produced enormous social unrest in Mexico, including protests, hunger strikes, and
civil disobedience.
154
In January 2003, approximately one hundred thousand farmers converged on
Mexico City to demand that the Mexican government renegotiate the agricultural chapter of
NAFTA, provide emergency assistance to those harmed by trade liberalization, implement long-term
agricultural development programs, invest in rural infrastructure and communities, and recognize the rights of indigenous peoples.
155 While the farmers were unable to secure a commitment to renegotiate NAFTA from the pro-free trade
administration of Mexican president Vicente Fox, they did secure new funds for rural development and an
agreement to assess NAFTAs impact on small farmers and to take action to defend and promote the
agricultural sector.
156
Renegotiation of the agricultural chapter of NAFTA emerged as an important issue in the 2006
presidential election, with opposition candidate Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador pledging to violate Mexicos NAFTA commitment to
eliminate tariffs on all agricultural products by 2008 and calling for a new accord to promote Mexicos economic development.
157

Opinion polls conducted in 2007 revealed that Mexicans disapproved of NAFTA by a ratio of
two to one.
158
When tariffs on U.S. agricultural products were largely eliminated in 2008
pursuant to NAFTA, 50,000 to 100,000 Mexican protestors marked the event by paralyzing
traffic in Mexico City to demand renegotiation of the Agreement.

Nationalistic and protectionist attitudes make U.S. trade opportunities unpopularour evidence
cites studies
Hearn, 11, under peer review, PhD cadidate @ Florida State University; masters
in political science (Eddie Hearn, July 29
th
, 2011, Department of Political Science at Florida State University Harm,
Fairness, and Trade Policy Preferences: An experimental examination of sincere fair trade preferences pg. 8
http://myweb.fsu.edu/eoh08/Hearn2011.pdf)//JES
Nationalistic factors have also been posited as a mechanism for driving protectionist attitudes.
ORourke and Sinnott (2001) argue that nationalist and chauvinistic individuals are more likely
to support protection as a result of national pride, feelings of national superiority, and at the
extreme antagonistic attitudes towards foreign nationals. Kocher and Minushkin (2007) show
that, in Mexico, anti-American sentiment has led to opposition toward trade and challenged
the success of liberal economic policies. Baron and Kemp (2004) analyze the eects of reciprocity and nd that
individuals are more likely to support barrier free trade with countries that accept exports.

Russia ! D
No Russian economic collapse
Adomanis, 1/7/13 (Mark Adomanis, undergraduate degree in government at Harvard, master's
degree in Russian and East European Studies at the University of Oxford, Forbes, "Why Russia's
Economy Isn't Going To Collapse", www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/01/07/why-
russias-economy-isnt-going-to-collapse/ //kdh)
Hating Russias economy is a full-time job for many people. Owen Matthews in Newsweek is perhaps the most colorful of the bunch,
but the difference between Matthews and other Western journalists is primarily one of degree not of kind. Ive been following
Russia very closely for about a decade now, and Ive simply lost count of the number of analyses Ive read arguing that the end is
nigh and that the economys final implosion is mere months away. These articles vary greatly in quality, but the
basic indictment of Russias economy consists of a number of actually quite reasonable observations on
the countrys corruption, red tape, and over-reliance on natural resources. However, after getting
decimated during the worse days of the financial crisis, Russias economy has been plugging
along with steady and unremarkable growth in the 3-4% range, hardly world beating but actually faster
than almost every country in the EU. As more time has passed and Russias economy has defied predictions by continuing
to not collapse, Ive become increasingly convinced that its economic stability has been somewhat underrated and
that, despite its many faults, its basic economic model is quite likely to endure through the short
and medium terms. I certainly dont think that Russia is going to become some sort of economic hegemon, but it seems
far more likely than not that it will evolve gradually, and not through some titanic rupture or revolutionary
upheaval. But my hunches and inclinations arent very good evidence, so I thought I would put a few charts together which show
why I think that Russias economy is basically going to stay stable over the next several years and that its a huge mistake to predict a
cataclysm which will sweep away the dread Putin. 1.The price of Brent crude has stayed remarkably robust
despite chronic economic weakness in the developed world. I suppose its possible that the EU will never emerge from its current
doldrums, but I think that the developed world will eventually get out of its funk and start to grow again. When it does that growth
will likely drive the price of oil even higher, or at least prevent it from going much lower. 2. Russia still has very large
foreign reserves, some of the largest in the entire world Although you often hear, as in Matthews piece, that the Russians
used to be responsible with their oil money, now theyre become totally reckless and irresponsible, Russia still has very large
foreign reserves that amount to almost 25% of its GDP. Note the similarity between the oil price graph and Russias foreign reserves,
their shapes are almost identical While the utility of foreign reserves can often be overstated, they can be very handy in
averting economic catastrophes, and, as you might expect, the Russians drew heavily on their foreign reserves during
the worst days of the 2008-09 crisis. I think that the reserves provide a cushion that will help to shield Russia from a future shock,
such as a rapid and massive decline in the price of oil. Of course theres still the chance that Russia will suffer a
slow and gradual decline in competitiveness, but what Im pushing back against is not that
argument but the argument that the whole house of cards is going to collapse in the next couple
of years. 3. The Russian government still runs a budget surplus, and its spending as a percentage
of GDP is not very high From January-October 2012 Russia ran a budget surplus of about 1.4%, smaller than the 2011 figure
(3.2%) but a surplus nonetheless. Russias total level of government spending (about 32% of GDP) hardly seems outrageous or
unsustainable. Additionally, despite a lot of loose and foolish talk from the Russian defense ministry about it looming re-armament
campaign, Russias budget spending is more weighted towards the social sphere than the military industrial complex. Courtesy of the
Gaidar institute, heres a graph showing where Russias consolidated government spending was directed in the first ten months of
2012: The Gaidar institute is hardly a Kremlin outfit, indeed the overall tone of the report to which I linked is actually quite gloomy*
and critical of the authorities, and considering its track record I dont think that it would have spun the numbers in a more pro-Putin
direction. When analyzing any countrys budget posture you need to focus on where the money is actually being spent. While
theres been an awful lot of talk about comprehensively re-arming the Russian military, the actual level of spending remains
relatively small and well within the countrys ability to pay. The purse-strings are clearly somewhat looser than they used to be, but a
quick glance at Russias budget certainly doesnt give the impression of a totally reckless and debauched approach. 4. Russian
unemployment is at or near a post-Soviet record low Russias labor market isnt exactly a model
for anyone else, but its arguably more robust now than its ever been before. I think that this will act as a
sort of stabilizing influence in its own right, but, more importantly, it might allow the government to feel comfortable enough to do
some tinkering and implement a few moderate reforms. Basically, the government is more likely to undertake some modest
liberalization if the labor market is healthy and its confident that people will be able to find jobs than if the unemployment rate is
already trending upwards (unemployment is obviously highly politically sensitive in performance legitimacy regimes like Russias).

The Russian economy can withstand a slump
RIA, 11 (RIA Novisti, Russian economy can survive low oil prices Kudrin, 9/26/2011, RIA
Novisti, http://en.rian.ru/business/20110926/167139562.html)
The Russian economy will be able to function normally for a year, if global oil prices fall to $60
per barrel, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Monday in an interview with Russia Today international news TV channel.
"We expect this fall will certainly cause a decrease in our economic growth down to nearly
zero or below zero, but in terms of the budget policy we'll be able to cope with this for up to a year," Kudrin said. Russia's
finance minister said on Saturday he expected world oil prices to fall to $60 per barrel in the next one and a half to two years and
stay at this level for about six months. After this, "we'll have to adjust policy and reduce expenditure. As a
whole, however, we are ready to provide stability for a year or two and fulfil all our commitments,"
Kudrin said. Russia's federal budget for the next three years is based on a forecast of Urals average yearly oil price at $100 per barrel
in 2012, $97 per barrel in 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. Russian Deputy Finance Minister Tatiana Nesterenko said last week that
a fall in global oil prices to $60 per barrel could force the Russian government to cut the 2012 budget spending but added that this
scenario was unlikely. The average price of Urals blend, Russia's key export commodity, stood at $109.2 per barrel in January-August
2011.

No impact to Russian economic decline
COUNTRY FORECAST SELECT 3-8-2010 (Economist Intelligence Unit, Lexis)
However, although Russians are dissatisfied with the economic situation, this does not yet appear to
have affected significantly the popular standing of either Mr Medvedev or Mr Putin. Although the
impact of economic crises on social stability usually occurs with a lag, it is nevertheless doubtful
that a rise in social discontent could threaten the leadership--Boris Yeltsin managed to survive
politically through the crisis in 1998, despite being in a much weaker position. Although some
independent labour groups have emerged, most trade union organisations are close to the
government. The authorities face little threat from a weak opposition. The liberals in Russia are
in disarray and are not represented in parliament. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF)--
the only true opposition party in parliament--is a declining force.


Manufacturing
The manufacturing industry specifically the auto industry is recovering now
Villarreal 10 [M. Angeles Villarreal, Specialist in International Trade and Finance, The Mexican Economy after the Global
Financial Crisis Congressional Research Service, September 9, 2010 http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R41402_20100909.pdf+ //PP
The global financial crisis, and the subsequent downturn in the U.S. economy, resulted in the
sharpest economic contraction in the Mexican economy in twenty years. It is estimated to have
contracted by 6.6% in 2009, as shown in Table 1, while the Mexican peso depreciated against the dollar by 25%.4
Mexican merchandise exports to the United States decreased sharply. Mexico also experienced
liquidity problems and a loss in investor confidence as a result of large losses on corporate foreign exchange
positions in 2008, in addition to the uncertainty over the outbreak of the H1N1 virus in mid-2009.5 Mexicos policy
measures in response to the crisis and its prior economic performance have helped the
economy begin to recover and the exchange rate to improve. Estimates for 2010 project that
the economy will grow by about 3% to 4% and that domestic demand will also improve, though not significantly.
The recovery is also due to an increase in external demand, which has driven up manufacturing
exports, rather than from internal demand.6 Manufacturing exports increased 34% year-on-year
during the first five months of 2010, with much of the growth occurring in automotive exports (78% increase),
which go mostly to the United States. Total exports have risen 38%.7 Sectors of the economy that depend significantly on domestic
demand, such as utilities, construction, and retail, are struggling, though an improvement is expected later this year. The Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU) projects GDP growth at 2.7% for 2011.8

Manufacturing is resurging- on-shoring, energy prices, productivity, increased
production, and investment. Prefer our evidence over their snap shots- its
predictive of long term increases
Fink 6-6 (Billy Fink, a market analyst for Axial. Graduated from Columbia university with a BA in
History and Psychology, June 6, 2013. Manufacturing Resurgence or New Growth?
http://www.axial.net/blog/manufacturing-resurgence-new-growth/)//NR
Over the past few years, the phrase manufacturing resurgence has grown in popularity throughout the United States.
Industry analysts have identified a variety of positive factors that suggest America may reclaim its bygone title of a
manufacturing powerhouse. Joe May, Managing Principal of Graham Partners, echoed the strength of this trend. He explained,
Manufacturing jobs have increased recently and industrial-production as a percent of GDP is rising. However, May
was certain to add that the resurgence is not as one-dimensional as it seems. While manufacturing jobs are currently on the rise, the focus of
American manufacturing has largely shifted from basic, labor-intensive goods to more sophisticated products. This
transformation is a critical characteristic of Americas historical and future manufacturing presence. May believes that the
shifting dynamics in the costs of energy has helped spur the recent manufacturing resurgence. The simultaneous rise in
transportation cost for foreign-produced goods and the fall in energy costs in the US has led many manufacturers to rethink their foreign
manufacturing efforts, said May. For many manufacturers, the cost of shipping goods from another country is beginning to negate the benefits.
Transportation costs are not the only fixed cost on the rise. As China and other developing countries continues to grow, so too does the cost of
labor. According to a recent report from the China Market Research Group, incomes in China have quadrupled over the past decade. In 2000, the
average annual income was $760 per person. As of 2010, it was $3,000. The pace of growth is expected to continue or
accelerate. Without the clear economic benefits, many manufacturers are becoming less tolerant of the inherent risks
that are introduced by international manufacturing. One of the biggest risks is to the supply chain. Manufacturers are
looking to avoid a variety of political, economic, or natural disasters that could impact the supply chain, explained May. By onshoring and
bringing production efforts closer to home, there are fewer events that can disrupt the process. However, as manufacturers look to mitigate supply
chain risks and higher labor costs, the United States is not the only option on the table. Thanks to favorable trade agreements, Mexico is being
considered as nice alternatives for manufacturing needs. As Member Eric Rundall of Dura Motors explained last year, OEMs are putting in additional
capacity *in Mexico+. Looking globally, if you consider total labor cost and logistics, its cheaper than China. Unrestricted trade and proximity of
customer destinations makes it more affordable. According to a recent Economist article, On present trends, by 2018 America will import more from
Mexico than from any other country. Although manufacturing jobs are on the rise in the United States, May believes the
manufacturing that left is not the same that is returning to the United States. According to May, America has undergone a form of manufacturing
evolution over the past 50 years one in favor of industrial technologies. The US has begun to focus on manufacturing more sophisticated products
that are higher up the value chain, said May. Rather than manufacturing products with a large labor component in the cost structure, we are now
focused on more high-tech products, such as measurement and control devices, across a wide variety of industry sectors, including aerospace,
pharmaceuticals, medical products, etc. He continued, The value of industrial production in the US is up by more
than four times since 1960, despite a drop in manufacturing employment. Currently, each employee is generating almost 6x
more output than an employee in 1960. As a result, I dont think the low-value-add jobs of manufacturing will return. The US is a favorable
home for this trend in manufacturing because we have the most skilled workforce in the world at our disposal. Given the current personality of US
manufacturing, many investors are focused on the manufacturing firms with a technology focus. Businesses with strong
industrial technologies at the core are likely to experience the greatest gains from the ongoing resurgence, explained May.
They are becoming quite attractive to investors. In addition to the growing investor demand, business exits are likely to rise as well. Generally
speaking, business owners that have weathered the storm of 2008 and 2009 will probably soon consider exits, says May. Most dont want to be at
the helm during the next downturn. Since you want to sell your business in a growing economy, I expect we will see an increase in exits over
the next 18 months. Between the heightened supply and demand, manufacturing seems ripe for M&A activity. Despite the positive trends,
May has not seen significant change in buyer dynamics. We have not seen much in terms of new competition or new investors entering the
manufacturing space. Trends on Axial support Mays sense. While the proportion of direct investors in manufacturing has remained relatively
consistent, the average number of pursuits per deal has grown significantly from 4.77 per deal in Q1-12 to 12.11 per deal in Q1-13. Whether new
players will enter the space in the near-term remains to be seen.
China manufacturing fails-dependent on US, loss of competitiveness
Shaiken et al 13
[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters Center for Latin American Studies at
the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg 32-33]

However, it is worth noting that the United States holds the upper hand in terms of the bilateral
relationship between the two nations. Superficially speaking, Chinas swift economic growth has
greatly strengthened its economy, hence the reason it has been regarded as world-class economic power (Smith
2008:215). However, the commodity boom is unlikely to last forever (He 2012:31). Chinas
manufacturing road to modernity has become rocky and uncertain for a number of reason:
The first is related to increasing labor costs in China, not only compared to what they were before, but also in
terms of neighboring countries such as Vietnam and India. According to AlixPartner Consultancy, compensation costs in East Asia a
region that includes China but excludes Japan rose from 32% of U.S. wages in 2002 to 43% in 2007. And since wages have been
increasing at a rate of 8% to 9% a year, taxes have been increasing as well. East Asias overall costs have doubtlessly escalated even
more during the last two years (Devonshire-Ellis 2011). The effects of wage increase in China have been
exemplified by American companies like Adidas leaving China in response to escalated labor
costs. What this ultimately means for China is a gradual loss of its comparative advantage as
the lowest-cost producer in the manufacturing sector a status that it has maintained for decades. Secondly,
United States-based multinational companies (MNCs) are crucial in determining the structure of
the global production system, labor mobilization, and international trade flow. China, as the final
assembler of goods produced by the MNCs, has enticed such companies with low costs of labor. This has incentivized
many MNCs in the manufacturing sector to build accessory plants in China, which now account for over 60% of Chinas exports.2
Consequently, MNCs receive a large percentage of these export profits, calling into question the true trade surplus that China has
with the U.S. and Mexico. In other words, the United States, as a primary base for MNC-operations, will be
a determining factor regarding Chinas future economic performance if China continues to
follow its manufacturing road. Last but not least, China is currently facing numerous domestic
problems, such as: (1) a rich government with poor citizens, suggesting that the benefits of economic growth
have not been enjoyed by a significant portion of the population; (2) rampant social inequality; and (3) inefficiency
of state-owned enterprises, incomplete economic reform, and a semi-market and semi-
command economic system. Chinese economist Wu Jinglian has argued that Chinas future will be decided based on
whether the country advances to a law-based market economy or reverts back to a command economy and state capitalism (Wu
2012). The aforementioned factors have impeded Chinas economic development, supporting the contention that Chinas economic
clout and status should not be exaggerated (Roett and Paz 2008:9). In short, it is necessary for China to explore a
new model of development - that is, from an export-driven model to one based on innovation
- in order to sustain its economic growth.
Asia War
War in Asia is highly unlikelyregional stability concerns are being settled and
alliance structures check
Desker and Bitzinger 2008 *Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, **Dean of the S.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Director of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological
University, Singapore (Richard and Barry, Survival 50:6, "Why East Asian War is Unlikely", pages 105-28, EBSCO)

The Asia-Pacific region can be regarded as a zone of both relative insecurity and strategic
stability. It contains some of the worlds most significant flashpoints the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan
Strait, the Siachen Glacier where tensions between nations could escalate to the point of major war. It is replete with unresolved
border issues; is a breeding ground for transnationa terrorism and the site of many terrorist activities (the Bali bombings, the Manila
superferry bombing); and contains overlapping claims for maritime territories (the Spratly Islands, the
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands) with considerable actual or potential wealth in resources such as oil, gas and
fisheries. Finally, the Asia-Pacific is an area of strategic significance with many key sea lines of
communication and important chokepoints. Yet despite all these potential crucibles of conflict,
the Asia-Pacific, if not an area of serenity and calm, is certainly more stable than one might
expect. To be sure, there are separatist movements and internal struggles, particularly with insurgencies, as in Thailand, the
Philippines and Tibet. Since the resolution of the East Timor crisis, however, the region has been
relatively free of open armed warfare. Separatism remains a challenge, but the break-up of
states is unlikely. Terrorism is a nuisance, but its impact is contained. The North Korean nuclear
issue, while not fully resolved, is at least moving toward a conclusion with the likely
denuclearisation of the peninsula. Tensions between China and Taiwan, while always just
beneath the surface, seem unlikely to erupt in open conflict any time soon, especially given
recent Kuomintang Party victories in Taiwan and efforts by Taiwan and China to re-open
informal channels of consultation as well as institutional relationships between organisations
responsible for cross-strait relations. And while in Asia there is no strong supranational political
entity like the European Union, there are many multilateral organisations and international
initiatives dedicated to enhancing peace and stability, including the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) forum, the Proliferation Security Initiative and the Shanghai Co-operation
Organisation. In Southeast Asia, countries are united in a common eopolitical and economic
organisation the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) which is dedicated to
peaceful economic, social and cultural development, and to the promotion of regional peace
and stability. ASEAN has played a key role in conceiving and establishing broader regional
institutions such as the East Asian Summit, ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and South Korea) and the ASEAN
Regional Forum. All this suggests that war in Asia while not inconceivable is unlikely.

Protectionism
No impact to protectionism
Krugman 09 American economist, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University, won the
Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences,
author of 20 books and has published over 200 scholarly articles in professional journals (Paul
Krugman, Protectionism and stimulus, NYT, 2/1/09,
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/01/protectionism-and-stimulus-wonkish/)//js

Should we be upset about the buy-American provisions in the stimulus bill? Is there an
economic case for such provisions? The answer is yes and yes. And I do think its important to be
honest about the second yes. The economic case against protectionism is that it distorts
incentives: each country produces goods in which it has a comparative disadvantage, and
consumes too little of imported goods. And under normal conditions thats the end of the story.
But these are not normal conditions. Were in the midst of a global slump, with governments
everywhere having trouble coming up with an effective response. And one part of the problem
facing the world is that there are major policy externalities. My fiscal stimulus helps your
economy, by increasing your exports but you dont share in my addition to government debt.
As I explained a while back, this means that the bang per buck on stimulus for any one country is
less than it is for the world as a whole. And this in turn means that if macro policy isnt
coordinated internationally and it isnt well tend to end up with too little fiscal stimulus,
everywhere. Now ask, how would this change if each country adopted protectionist measures
that contained the effects of fiscal expansion within its domestic economy? Then everyone
would adopt a more expansionary policy and the world would get closer to full employment
than it would have otherwise. Yes, trade would be more distorted, which is a cost; but the
distortion caused by a severely underemployed world economy would be reduced. And as the
late James Tobin liked to say, it takes a lot of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun gap. Lets be
clear: this isnt an argument for beggaring thy neighbor, its an argument that protectionism can
make the world as a whole better off. Its a second-best argument coordinated policy is the
first-best answer. But it needs to be taken seriously. Whats the counter-argument? Dont say
that any theory which has good things to say about protectionism must be wrong: thats
theology, not economics. The right argument, I think, is in terms of political economy.
Everything Ive just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap; thats where we
are now, but it wont be the normal situation. And if we go all protectionist, that will shatter the
hard-won achievements of 70 years of trade negotiations and it might take decades to put
Humpty-Dumpty back together again. But there is a short-run case for protectionism and that
case will increase in force if we dont have an effective economic recovery program.

+L.A. Instability

Latin America impacts are empirically denied
Hartzell 2000 (Caroline A., 4/1/2000, Middle Atlantic Council of Latin American Studies Latin
American Essays, Latin America's civil wars: conflict resolution and institutional change.
http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-28765765_ITM)

Latin America has been the site of fourteen civil wars during the post-World War II era,
thirteen of which now have ended. Although not as civil war-prone as some other areas of the
world, Latin America has endured some extremely violent and destabilizing intrastate conflicts.
(2) The region's experiences with civil wars and their resolution thus may prove instructive for
other parts of the world in which such conflicts continue to rage. By examining Latin America's
civil wars in some depth not only might we better understand the circumstances under which
such conflicts are ended but also the institutional outcomes to which they give rise. More
specifically, this paper focuses on the following central questions regarding Latin America's civil
wars: Has the resolution of these conflicts produced significant institutional change in the
countries in which they were fought? What is the nature of the institutional change that has
taken place in the wake of these civil wars? What are the factors that are responsible for
shaping post-war institutional change?


M.E. Instability
No Middle East war
Maloney and Takeyh 7*senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the Saban Center for
Middle East Studies at the Brookings Institution AND **senior fellow for Middle East Studies at
the Council on Foreign Relations (Susan and Ray, International Herald Tribune, 6/28, Why the
Iraq War Won't Engulf the Mideast,
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2007/0628iraq_maloney.aspx)//NR
Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, and others are very unlikely to go to war either
to protect their own sect or ethnic group or to prevent one country from gaining the upper hand
in Iraq. The reasons are fairly straightforward. First, Middle Eastern leaders, like politicians
everywhere, are primarily interested in one thing: self-preservation. Committing forces to Iraq
is an inherently risky proposition, which, if the conflict went badly, could threaten domestic
political stability. Moreover, most Arab armies are geared toward regime protection rather
than projecting power and thus have little capability for sending troops//// to Iraq. Second,
there is cause for concern about the so-called blowback scenario in which jihadis returning
from Iraq destabilize their home countries, plunging the region into conflict. Middle Eastern
leaders are preparing for this possibility. Unlike in the 1990s, when Arab fighters in the Afghan
jihad against the Soviet Union returned to Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and became a source
of instability, Arab security services are being vigilant about who is coming in and going from
their countries. In the last month, the Saudi government has arrested approximately 200 people
suspected of ties with militants. Riyadh is also building a 700 kilometer wall along part of its
frontier with Iraq in order to keep militants out of the kingdom. Finally, there is no precedent
for Arab leaders to commit forces to conflicts in which they are not directly involved. The
Iraqis and the Saudis did send small contingents to fight the Israelis in 1948 and 1967, but they
were either ineffective or never made it. In the 1970s and 1980s, Arab countries other than
Syria, which had a compelling interest in establishing its hegemony over Lebanon, never
committed forces either to protect the Lebanese from the Israelis or from other Lebanese. The
civil war in Lebanon was regarded as someone else's fight. Indeed, this is the way many leaders
view the current situation in Iraq. To Cairo, Amman and Riyadh, the situation in Iraq is
worrisome, but in the end it is an Iraqi and American fight. As far as Iranian mullahs are
concerned, they have long preferred to press their interests through proxies as opposed to
direct engagement. At a time when Tehran has access and influence over powerful Shiite
militias, a massive cross-border incursion is both unlikely and unnecessary. So Iraqis will remain
locked in a sectarian and ethnic struggle that outside powers may abet, but will remain within
the borders of Iraq. The Middle East is a region both prone and accustomed to civil wars. But
given its experience with ambiguous conflicts, the region has also developed an intuitive
ability to contain its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle
East.

De-escalation and global deterrence---best empirical cases prove no conflict
despite heightened tensions, instability, and regional threats
Terrill 9, member of Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) since October 2001; General Douglas MacArthur Professor of
National Security Affairs; Middle East Nonprolif analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air War College; former faculty member at Old
Dominion University; retired U.S. Army Reserve lieutenant colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East); published
in numerous academic journals; participated in the Middle Eastern Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Track 2
talks, which are part of the Middle East Peace Process; served as a member of the military and security working group
of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study; holds a B.A. from California State Polytechnic University; M.A. from the University
of California, Riverside, both in Political Science; holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Claremont Graduate
Universit(W. Andrew Terrill, Escalation and intrawar deterrence During limited wars in the
middle east, September 2009,
http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub941.pdf)//NR

The number of declared nuclear powers has expanded significantly in the last 20 years to include Pakistan, India, and North Korea.
Additionally, other powers such as Iran are almost certainly striving for a nuclear weapons capability while a number of count- ries in
the developing world possess or seek biological and chemical weapons. In this milieu, a central purpose of this monograph by W.
Andrew Terrill is to reexamine two earlier conflicts for insights that may be relevant for ongoing dangers during limited wars
involving nations possessing chemical or biological weapons or emerging nuclear arsenals. Decision-makers from the United
States and other countries may have to consider the circumstances under which a smaller and weaker enemy will use nuclear
weapons or other mass destruction weapons. Some of Dr. Terrills observations may be particularly useful for policymakers dealing
with future crises involving developing nations that possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Although it is possible that the
United States could be a party to such a conflict, any crisis involving nuclear weapons states is expected to be of inherent concern to
Washington, even if it is not a combatant. Dr. Terrill has examined two important Middle Eastern wars. These
conflicts are the 1973 Arab- Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War. This monograph may be particularly valuable in providing readers,
including senior military and political leaders, with a discussion of the implications of these historical case studies in
which WMD-armed nations may have seriously considered their use but ultimately did not
resort to them. Both of these wars were fought at the conventional level, although the prospect of Israel using nuclear
weapons (1973), Egypt using biological weapons (1973), or Iraq using chemical and biological weapons (1991) were of serious
concern at various points during the fighting. The prospect of a U.S. war with WMD-armed opponents (such as occurred in 1991)
raises the question of how escalation can be controlled in such circumstances and what are the most likely ways that
intrawar deterrence can break down. This monograph will consider why efforts at escalation control and intrawar
deterrence were successful in the two case studies and assess the points at which these efforts were under the most
intensive stress that might have caused them to fail. Dr. Terrill notes that intrawar deterrence is always difficult and usually based on
a variety of factors that no combatant can control in all circumstances of an ongoing conflict. The Strategic Studies Institute is
pleased to offer this monograph as a contribution to the national secur- ity debate on this important subject as our nation continues
to grapple with a variety of problems associated with the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. This analysis
should be especially useful to U.S. strategic leaders and intelli- gence professionals as they seek to address the complicated interplay
of factors related to regional security issues and the support of local allies. This work may also benefit those seeking greater
understanding of long range issues of Middle Eastern and global security. We hope this work will be of benefit to officers of all
services as well as other U.S. Government officials involved in military planning, and that it may cause them to reconsider some of
the instances where intrawar deterrence seemed to work well but may have done so by a much closer margin than future planners
can comfortably accept. In this regard, Dr. Terrills work is important to understanding the lessons of these conflicts which might
otherwise be forgotten or oversimplified. Additionally, an understanding of the issues involved with these
earlier case studies may be useful in future circumstances where the United States may seek to deter
wartime WMD use by potential adversaries such as Iran or North Korea. The two case studies may also point out the inherent
difficulties in doing so and the need to enter into conflict with these states only if one is prepared to accept the strong possibility
that any efforts to control escalation have a good chance of breaking down. This understanding is particularly important in a
wartime environment in which all parties should rationally have an interest in controlling escalation, but may have trouble doing so
due to both systemic and wartime misperceptions and mistakes that distort communications between adversaries and may cause
fundamental misunderstandings about the nature of the conflict in which these states may find themselves embroiled.

No global escalation
Dyer, 02 Ph.D. in Military and Middle Eastern History from the University of London and
former professor at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst and Oxford University (Gwynne,
Queens Quarterly, The coming war, December, questia)//NR
All of this indicates an extremely dangerous situation, with many variables that are impossible to assess fully. But there is one
comforting reality here: this will not become World War III. Not long ago, wars in the Middle East always
went to the brink very quickly, with the Americans and Soviets deeply involved on opposite
sides, bristling their nuclear weapons at one another. And for quite some time we lived on the brink of
oblivion. But that is over . World War III has been cancelled, and I don't think we could pump it
up again no matter how hard we tried. The connections that once tied Middle Eastern
confrontations to a global confrontation involving tens of thousands of nuclear weapons have
all been undone. The East-West Cold War is finished. The truly dangerous powers in the world today are the industrialized
countries in general. We are the ones with the resources and the technology to churn out weapons of mass destruction like
sausages. But the good news is: we are out of the business.

Bioweapons
No risk of weaponization risk is exaggerated
Johnson, at the Wall Street Journal, 8/11/2K10 (Keith, "Gaisn in Bioscience Cause Terror
Fears",
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703722804575369394068436132.html//arnav
-kejriwal)
Fears of bioterror have been on the rise since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, stoking tens of billions of dollars of government spending
on defenses, and the White House and Congress continue to push for new measures. But the fear of a mass-casualty
terrorist attack using bioweapons has always been tempered by a single fact: Of the scores of
plots uncovered during the past decade, none have featured biological weapons. Indeed, many experts
doubt terrorists even have the technical capability to acquire and weaponize deadly bugs. The new
fear, though, is that scientific advances that enable amateur scientists to carry out once-exotic experiments, such as DNA cloning,
could be put to criminal use. Many well-known figures are sounding the alarm over the revolution in biological science, which
amounts to a proliferation of know-howif not the actual pathogens. "Certain areas of biotechnology are getting more accessible
to people with malign intent," said Jonathan Tucker, an expert on biological and chemical weapons at the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies. Geneticist Craig Venter said last month at the first meeting of a presidential commission on bioethics, "If
students can order any [genetic sequences] online, somebody could try to make the Ebola virus." Mr. Venter is a pioneer in the field
whose creation of a synthetic organism this spring helped push the debate about the risks and rewards of bioscience from scientific
journals to the corridors of power in Washington. "We are limited more by our imagination now than any technological limitations,"
Mr. Venter said. Scientists have the ability to manipulate genetic material more quickly and more cheaply all the time. Just as
"Moore's Law" describes the accelerating pace of advances in computer science, advances in biology are becoming more potent and
accessible every year, experts note. As recently as a decade ago, the tools and techniques for such fiddling were confined to a
handful of laboratories like those at leading research universities. Today, do-it-yourself biology clubs have sprung up where part-
timers share tips on how to build high-speed centrifuges, isolate genetic material, and the like. The movement has been
aided by gear that can turn a backyard shed into a microbiology lab. That has prompted the
Federal Bureau of Investigation to reach out to amateur biologists, teaching them proper
security measures and asking them to be vigilant of unscrupulous scientists. "The risk we're seeing
now is that these procedures are becoming easier to do," said Edward You, who heads the outreach program at the FBI's Directorate
for Weapons of Mass Destruction. Biological weapons date back millennia. Rotting and plague-stricken corpses once
were catapulted over besieged city walls. Wells were routinely poisoned. More recently, fears that terrorist groups
such as al Qaeda might deploy weapons of mass destruction have kindled fears of
bioterrorism. Those fears reached fever pitch in the months after the World Trade Center was
downed, when anthrax-filled mail killed five people and prompted panic. That's when Washington started
boosting spending on biodefense, improving security at laboratories that work with dangerous pathogens and stockpiling antidotes.
Last fall, President Barack Obama ordered the creation of a bioethics commission, and the group spent much of its first meeting
parsing the threat of biological terrorism. He also issued an executive order earlier this month to beef up
security for the most dangerous pathogens, which include anthrax, ebola, tularensis, smallpox and the
reconstructed 1918 Spanish flu bug. Both houses of Congress have legislation in the works to strengthen
the country's ability to detect, prevent and, if necessary, recover from large-scale attacks using
bioweapons. All the government attention comes despite the absence of known terrorist plots
involving biological weapons. According to U.S. counterterrorism officials, al Qaeda last actively tried to
work with bioweaponsspecifically anthraxbefore the 2001 invasion of that uprooted its leadership from
Afghanistan. While terrorists have on occasion used chemical weaponssuch as chlorine and sarin gas
none have yet employed a biological agent, counterterrorism officials and bioweapons researchers say. The
U.S. anthrax attacks were ultimately blamed on a U.S. scientist with access to military
bioweapons programs. That's why many experts caution that, despite scientific advances, it is
still exceedingly tough for terrorists to isolate or create, mass produce and deploy deadly
bugs. Tens of thousands of Soviet scientists spent decades trying to weaponize pathogens,
with mixed results. Though science has advanced greatly since the Cold War, many of the same challenges remain. "I
don't think the threat is growing, but quite the opposite," said Milton Leitenberg, a biological-
weapons expert at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Advances in biological
science and the proliferation of knowledge are a given, he said, but there has been no indication
they are being used by terrorists. "The idea that four guys in a cave are going to create
bioweapons from scratchthat will be never, ever, ever," he said.
Technical barriers make bio-terror impossible our ev cites 5 specific obstacles.
National Journal 05 (April 23rd lexis)
Technical Challenges On the other hand, critics argue that some experts have oversimplified the significant
technical challenges to building catastrophic biological weapons and have overestimated the
abilities of terrorist groups to overcome them. "How do you kill a lot of people? There, you've got to get involved
with airborne, deadly pathogens such as Bacillus anthracis spores, and that's fairly technically demanding to do," Zilinskas said.
Potential difficulties, experts say, include obtaining proper equipment and an appropriate strain
of pathogen; storing and handling the pathogen properly; growing it to produce a greater quantity; processing it to
develop the desirable characteristics; testing it; and dispersing it. A terrorist group would need to have suitably educated
and knowledgeable people, and sufficient time and freedom from government scrutiny, to do the work, they say. Potentially
the toughest challenge, experts say, is "weaponization" -- processing an agent to the point that
it can resist environmental stresses, survive dissemination, and increase its ability to infect (pathogenicity) and to
harm (toxicity). This is particularly true if the terrorists want to spray the agent, which is a more effective approach for a mass attack
than spreading an agent through human-to-human contact. "While collection and purification knowledge is widespread among
ordinary scientists, weaponization is obviously a military subject, and much of the knowledge that surrounds it is classified," wrote
Danzig, who believes that terrorists nevertheless might be able to develop catastrophic biological weapons. The key difficulty for
producing an aerosolized weapon, Danzig said, "would be to produce a pathogen formulation in sizes that would be within the
human respiratory range and that could be reliably stored, handled, and spread as a stable aerosol rather than clump and fall to the
ground. Mastering these somewhat contradictory requirements is tricky... The challenge becomes greater as attackers seek higher
concentrations of agent and higher efficiency in dissemination." Stanford's Chyba agrees on the difficulties of
weaponization. "Aerosolization is clearly [a] serious hurdle. I just find it hard, currently, to imagine a
Qaeda offshoot -- or, for that matter, any of the current non-state groups that I have read about -- being
technically proficient in that." (Note: Danzig is a former Navy secretary who is now a Pentagon bioterrorism consultant
and the Sam Nunn Prize fellow in international security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington)

NAFTA
Turn NAFTA causes outsourcing of jobs, which wrecks industries
Elkis 13(MARGARET ELKIS, Americas Economic Report Daily, "NAFTA: A Danger To U.S. Jobs, National Security" May 16, 2013
http://economyincrisis.org/content/nafta-a-danger-to-u-s-jobs-national-security, RLA)
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has created detrimental consequences for American
workers and has destroyed manufacturing in the U.S., prompting some of our best companies
to leave our borders to pursue the lower wage rates, non-existent environmental standards and free trade
without restrictions found in other countries like Mexico. This is only one example of the shady, dangerous implications that can
come with free trade agreements like NAFTA, a trade agreement between the United States, Canada, and Mexico. NAFTA is a
failed agreement that promised increases in trade, foreign investment and exports. Incomes and standards of living were supposed
to improve. NAFTA was also implemented with the goal of reducing migration, creating better jobs, and reducing prices for goods.
Instead, weve lost thousands of U.S. jobs, entire industries have fled our shores, and our
national security has fallen under increased risk at our borders due to the ever growing
presence of drug cartels. NAFTA has been devastating to the U.S. trade deficit and has resulted in massive job losses
particularly in the manufacturing sector. Between 1994 and 2010, U.S. trade deficits with Mexico totaled $97.2 billion and displaced
an estimated 682,900 U.S. jobs. Nearly all of the losses were in manufacturing. That is the root problem with our
failed free trade agreements. It actually encourages manufacturers to operate outside of the United States, taking their jobs with
them. NAFTA uses the prospect of lower wage rates, non-existent environmental standards, and
free trade without restrictions as bait to lure businesses to low-wage countries. As a result,
there are fewer jobs and an American market drowning in foreign-produced goods. It is
imperative that our leaders in Washington either amend the North American Free Trade Agreement to make it work for America or
eliminate it entirely! Let your congressional representative know that we must put an end to NAFTA. Send this article to five of your
friends and ask them to do the same!

NAFTA eliminates job opportunities and undermines growth
Fletcher 11 (Ian, Senior Economist of the Coalition for a Prosperous America and research fellow at the U.S. Business and
Industry Council, More Free Trade Agreements? When NAFTA Failed? Huffington Post The Blog, 03/11/2011,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/more-free-trade-agreement_b_838196.html, AC)

With the Republicans and the Obama administration attempting to rush headlong into a new trade agreement with Korea, and
possibly also with Panama and Colombia as well, it is incumbent on Americans to apply a bit of empiricism. How have our past trade
agreements worked at all, how's the grand-daddy of them all, NAFTA, doing? Unfortunately, NAFTA is a veritable case
study in failure. This is all the more damning because this treaty was created, and is administered, by the very Washington
elite that is loudest in proclaiming free trade's virtues. So there is no room for excuses about incompetent implementation, the
standard alibi for free trade's failures in the developing world. So if free trade was going to work anywhere, it should have been
here. Instead, what happened? NAFTA was sold as a policy that would reduce America's trade deficit. But our trade balance
actually worsened against both Canada and Mexico. For the four years prior to NAFTA's implementation in 1994,
America's annual deficit with Canada averaged a modest $8.1 billion. Twelve years later, it was up to $71 billion. Our trade
with Mexico showed a $1.6 billion surplus in 1993 but by 2010, our deficit had reached $61.6
billion. Eccentric billionaire and 1992 presidential candidate H. Ross Perot was roundly mocked for predicting a "giant sucking
sound" of jobs going to Mexico if NAFTA passed. But he has been vindicated. The Department of Labor has estimated
that NAFTA cost America 525,000 jobs between 1994 and 2002. According to the more aggressive
Economic Policy Institute: NAFTA has eliminated some 766,000 job opportunities--primarily for non-college-
educated workers in manufacturing. Contrary to what the American promoters of NAFTA promised U.S. workers, the
agreement did not result in an increased trade surplus with Mexico, but the reverse. As
manufacturing jobs disappeared, workers were down-scaled to lower-paying, less-secure services jobs. Within manufacturing, the
threat of employers to move production to Mexico proved a powerful weapon for undercutting workers' bargaining power. The
idea of Mexico as a vast export market for American products is a sad joke; Mexicans are simply too poor. In the 1997 words of
Business Mexico, a pro-NAFTA publication of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico: The reality is that only between
10 and 20 percent of the population are really considered consumers. The extreme unequal
distribution of wealth has created a distorted market, the economy is hamstrung by a work
force with a poor level of education, and a sizable chunk of the gross domestic product in
devoted to exports rather than production for home consumption. According to official figures that year,
fewer than 18 million Mexicans made more than 5,000 pesos a month. And even that was only about $625: roughly half the U.S.
poverty line for a family of four. This has not improved much since, so, as Paul Krugman has pointed out, "Mexico's economy is so
small--its GDP is less than four percent that of the United States--that for the foreseeable future it will be neither a major supplier
nor a major market." But if NAFTA wasn't a plausible economic bonanza for the U.S. and America's establishment knew it, then
what was going on? Krugman again supplies an answer, writing in Foreign Affairs that, "For the United States, NAFTA is essentially a
foreign policy rather than an economic issue." The real agenda was to keep people like President Carlos Salinas,
friendly with powerful interests in the U.S., in power in Mexico City. Bottom line? Free trade was pushed not
because of any sincerely anticipated economic benefits, but to serve an extraneous foreign policy agenda. To his credit, Krugman
later admitted the utter chicanery of it all, writing in The New Democrat in 1996 that: The agreement was sold under false
pretences. Over the protests of most economists, the Clinton Administration chose to promote NAFTA as a jobs-creation program.
Based on little more than guesswork, a few economists argued that NAFTA would boost our trade surplus with Mexico, and thus
produce a net gain in jobs. With utterly spurious precision, the administration settled on a figure of 200,000 jobs created--and this
became the core of the NAFTA sales pitch. NAFTA was sold in Mexico as Mexico's ticket to the big time. Mexicans were told they
were choosing between gradually converging with America's advanced economy and regressing to the status of a backwater like
neighboring Guatemala. What actually happened? In reality, the income gap between the United States and Mexico grew (by over
10 percent) in the first decade of the agreement. This doesn't mean America boomed; we didn't. But Mexico slumped terribly. In
NAFTA's first decade, the Mexican economy averaged 1.8 percent real growth per capita. By contrast, under the protectionist
economic policies of 1948-73, Mexico had averaged 3.2 percent growth. Because Mexico's labor force grows by a million people a
year, job creation must get ahead of this curve in order to raise wages; this is simply not happening. Mexican workers can often be
hired for less than the taxes on American workers; the average maquiladora wage is $1.82/hr. The maquiladora sector is deliberately
isolated from the rest of the Mexican economy and contributes little to it. Workers' rights, wages, and benefits are deliberately
suppressed. Environmental laws are frequently just ignored. Mexican agriculture hasn't benefited either: NAFTA turned
Mexico from a food exporter to a food importer overnight and over a million farm jobs were wiped
out by cheap American food exports, massively subsidized by our various farm programs. Promoters of NAFTA have
tried to cover up its problems by using inappropriate yardsticks of success. For example, they have claimed that the expansion
of total trade among the three nations vindicates the pact. But this expansion has been due to a growing
American deficit. Because a growing deficit means, by definition, that our imports have been growing
faster than our exports, there is no way that economic growth per se will ever solve the
problem. Congress was right to reject NAFTA initially, which never enjoyed sincere majority support in either the House or the
Senate and was bought with sheer patronage by Bill Clinton. To be fair, NAFTA is not the only thing that has been wrong with the
Mexican economy in recent decades. But NAFTA was the capstone to a series of dubious free-market economic experiments carried
out there since the early 1980s. Between 1990 and 1999, Mexican manufacturing wages fell 21 percent. It gets worse. Despite the
fact that, compared to the U.S., Mexico is a cheap-labor economy, there are plenty of nations with even lower average wages. For
example, Mexico is now losing manufacturing jobs to China in such areas as computer parts, electrical components, toys, textiles,
sporting goods, and shoes: 200,000 in the first two years of the millennium alone. Mexico's trade deficit against the rest of the
world has actually worsened since NAFTA was signed. In the words of liberal commentator William Greider, "The Mexican
maquiladora cities thought they were going to become the next South Korea, but instead they may be the next Detroit." NAFTA is
not America's only free trade agreement, of course. But our other agreements tell similar tales. We have signed 11 since 2000: with
Australia, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Korea, Oman, Morocco, Singapore, Panama, and Peru. (El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras,
Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic were lumped together in the Central America Free Trade Agreement or CAFTA.) Every
agreement but one has coincided with greater American deficits. The only exception is Singapore, where our existing surplus
increased somewhat. But Singapore is tiny, a mere city-state. Nevertheless, our government pushes for more. As of 2011, country
agreements with Colombia, South Korea, Oman and Panama were pending ratification, and the U.S. was in stalled negotiations with
Malaysia, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. Next on the list are reportedly Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In
December 2009, the Obama administration announced its intention to eventually join the existing Trans-Pacific Partnership and
elevate it into a full-blown free trade area comprising the U.S. plus Singapore, Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, Australia, Peru, and
Vietnam. In December 2010, the administration reached a slightly-improved deal with South Korea and announced it would push for
Congressional ratification. When will we ever learn?

Airpower
Airpower fails doesnt deter conflict
Clodfelter 2006 (Mark, professor of military history at the National War College, The limits
of air power: the American bombing of North Vietnam, Google Books, Page xi,)//NR
Unfortunately, precision bombing may not be the answer. Despite being several technological generations ahead of
the capability displayed in Vietnam, smart munitions still do not guarantee zero collateral damage. Many of the precision air attacks
against insurgent leaders have produced claims by insurgentsas well as by Iraqis who do not support the insurgencythat Iraqi
civilians have been killed in the raids. Whether true or not, such accusations grab headlines in the Islamic press and on Al Jazeera,
providing the perception among many in the Muslim world that such attacks display a callous disregard for Muslim civilian lives. In
the type of war that America now faces, those perceptions have become reality to many opposing the United States.
In such conflicts, even with such advantages as Predator drones and Hellfire missiles, the long-term
harm of applying lethal air power is likely to eclipse its short-term benefit. As long as negative
political goals remain substantial, the limits of air power displayed in Vietnam will continue to
restrict its utility in the twenty-first century.
Air power is light years ahead.
Carpenter 2008 [US Air Force Colonel and Brigadier General of the Air Force Quadrennial
Defense Review Division, respectively *Mace Carpenter and David Deputla, Aerospace nations;
Invest in improving the Air Force, The Washington Times, 2-21-2008, LexisNexis]//NR
We are an aerospace nation in many ways. Our commercial air arm towers over any other nation. Our
Navy's ability to project airpower from the sea is unmatched by any other navy. Our Marines'
ability to provide close support to surface forces is "par excellence." Our Army's helicopter
force - more than 6,000 strong - is the largest in the world. Our Air Force leads the world in aerospace
capability in all aspects of the third dimension. Charged with leading military operations in air, space, and
cyberspace, the Air Force provides the global vigilance, global reach and global power that
underpin us as the world's sole superpower. National security actions are conducted much faster today than in the past; therefore,
the speed and accuracy of air, space and cyber operations has become increasingly important. With other nations' growing ability to
conduct precise kinetic and cyber attacks against us, we must preserve our capability to preempt, defend and rapidly respond.

Border Terror
U.S. Mexico border has never been safer any threats are exaggerated
Ball 2/22 (Molly Ball, journalist for The Atlantic and The Next America National Journal, Will
Immigration hawks ever think the border is secure enough?, 2/22/13,
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/immigration/will-immigration-hawks-ever-
think-the-border-is-secure-enough-20130222, 7/2/13)
Border security could be the issue that kills immigration reform. And yet, by most measures, the
U.S.-Mexico border has never been safer. The bipartisan group of U.S. senators seeking
comprehensive immigration reform have proposed a "trigger" mechanism, whereby a path to
citizenship would be contingent on increased border security. President Obama and liberals
have not endorsed the idea, although the president is "committed to increasing our border
security further," according to White House Press Secretary Jay Carney. Disagreement over the
trigger is the largest current discrepancy between the Senate and White House versions of
immigration reform. It could cause the whole thing to fall apart. Yet the idea -- expressed by
both sides -- that the border needs more security may be the biggest myth of the immigration
debate, according to Rep. Beto O'Rourke. A newly elected Democrat, O'Rourke represents El
Paso, Texas, the border city that shares a street grid -- and 11 border inspection stations --
with the Mexican city of Juarez. El Paso also has the lowest crime rate of any large U.S. city.
(The second-safest large city? It's on the border, too: San Diego.) The common assumption,
O'Rourke told me recently, "is that the border is not secure." In fact, by almost any measure --
crime, unauthorized border crossings, resources devoted to border patrol -- the U.S.-Mexico
border has never been more secure than it is now. The problem for the immigration debate is
that those who claim we need more border security are rarely called upon to prove it. No one
has proposed a set of concrete standards; rather, some are calling for a subjective evaluation to
be made by border-state governors, some of whom have political incentives to exaggerate the
threat -- and track records of doing so.

Cant solve border terrorism theyll use other means or adapt
Allen, 12 Senior Fellow at CFR (Edward, CATO Journal, Immigration and Border Control,
http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj32n1/cj32n1-8.pdf SW)

The third need is to reconsider our understanding of national security and border control. The close link in the public mind is largely
a result of the specific circumstances of the 9/11 attacks, in which all the attackers entered the United States from overseas. The
result has been an intense focus on policies designed to prevent similar future attacks, and border control has figured prominently.
But if the attacks had been carried out by individuals who had lived many years in the United
Statessuch as the perpetrators of the 2005 London subway bombing, who were all born or raised in the
United Kingdonthe response would have been quite different. Immigration policy might still have figured
prominently in the reaction, but the issue would have beenas it has largely been in Europethe failure of integration rather than
the failure of border control. Border control is a very limited counterterrorism tool. While it can raise
the hurdles for entry, there are many other ways to carry out terrorist attacks successfully. It is not
coincidental that since 9/11 the majority of the terrorist conspiracies in the United States have
involved U.S. citizens or permanent immigrants rather than recent arrivals. Terrorist groups
have simply adapted to tougher border controls and recruited accordingly (Alden 2010c).

AT Al Qaeda
Al Qaeda threat consistently exaggerated by officials
Mohammadi 10 (Saman Mohammadi, journalist for The Excavator, 11 Reasons Why The Threat
From Al-Qaeda is Not Real, 12/8/10, http://www.infowars.com/11-reasons-why-the-threat-
from-al-qaeda-is-not-real/, 7/2/13)

Since World War II U.S. leaders have consistently lied to the American people about foreign
threats in order to feed the military machines appetite for war. All of these wars are unjust
and unwarranted but that does not stop the self-interested criminals who control U.S. foreign policy. A
recent example of a lie they told was their assertion that Saddam Hussein was in possession of
weapons of mass destruction. That episode revealed to many people the true nature of the American
government. Simply put, it does not care about the truth, or the American people, or the members of the
military. U.S. leaders like former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and current Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates, to name but a few, tell lies at will. Dishonesty means nothing to them. They deceive the
American people, the American military, and the world about their motives and methods
and they lie to themselves about their own powers and abilities.
Solvency
Expanding the NADBank mandate to include transportation infrastructure
crushes environment-based projects overstretches the institution
Kourous 2K (George Kourous (directs the IRC's BIOC program, Writer, Editor & Senior Program
Associate at International Relations Center (IRC)) October 2000 The Great NADBank Debate
ProQuest)
The charter that created BECC and NADBank requires the institutions to support projects that
address "water pollution, wastewater treatment, municipal solid waste management, and
related matters." Now, NADBank management is recommending that this list be expanded to
include seven new areas, including: general air quality projects; air quality projects related to street paving; housing improvements and mortgages;
industrial and hazardous wastes; municipal urban roads and public transportation; water and wastewater home
installations; and water transfers (agricultural to municipal). The recommendation has gotten mixed reviews. Municipal
government officials working to provide their communities with potable water, wastewater treatment, and solid waste disposal facilities are the most
skeptical. Hector Gonzalez, Strategic Business Manager at the El Paso Water Utilities Board, thinks that these are still the priority areas for border
infrastructure development and that BECC and NADBank should stick to their original mission. "Our concern is that by expanding the
scope of the kinds of projects they fund, they might limit funding for water and wastewater
projects," Gonzalez explains. "There's still lots of work to be done in those areas, and the focus should
be there first." Mariano Martinez, Director of Public Works for the border town of Calexico, California, is also wary. "I don't agree with it," he
says. "They're going to lose sight of the original intent, which was to address these
environmental infrastructure needs, especially in small border communities." Border environment expert Mark Spalding, while
not 100% opposed to all the proposed additions, has similar concerns. "I would like to search for more and better ways to make NADBank's capital
affordable," he says, "rather than to quickly over-expand the mandate. After all, the original mandate was selected for a
reason." In addition to these concerns, other aspects of the bank's proposal have raised red flags for
border environmentalists. For example, Mark Spalding and others have pointed out that aside from diverting
resources from the border's still-pressing needs related to clean water, wastewater
treatment, and solid waste disposal, some of the new areas proposed by NADBank--such as
transportation infrastructure and water transfers--could easily exacerbate environmental problems on
the border rather than ameliorate them. "Water transfers," notes Spalding, "are not
environmentally sound. They often foster further population growth and neglect the needs of
natural ecosystems, including in-stream flows." Another concern is that many of the new
projects proposed by NADBank are more likely to benefit private industry than border
communities. A proposed railway to connect the port of San Diego to Arizona and the rest of the U.S., for instance, is highlighted in the bank's
report as a way of reducing traffic congestion and air pollution. These are difficult goals to find fault with, say environmentalists, but ultimately will
benefit the private sector most--at the possible expense of the border's poor households, many of whom still lack basic services like running water and
sewage disposal.
NADBank empirically fails high interest rates, poor management
AP 1 (Associated Press, NADBank Admits Poor Lending Record, Lubbock Avalanche-Journal,
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/081401/upd_075-5743.shtml, AC)

BROWNSVILLE, Texas {AP} Officials of the North American Development Bank, a U.S.-Mexico development
bank set up under the North American Free Trade Agreement, admit they have failed to meet their goal of funding
key environmental projects near the border. "We are the first to admit our lending record is very, very, poor. Yes, in a
sense we have failed miserably but that's because of the interest-rate situation. It has been that way since we were set up," Jorge
Garcs, deputy-managing director at the San Antonio-based NADBank, told the Brownsville Herald in Tuesday's editions.
NADBank has loaned only $11 million out of an authorized $3 billion in its five years in existence. "We
are well aware of our constraints and are hoping to see some modifications to make more loans available." The funding is used to
help communities within 100 kilometers on either side of the border with water and wastewater projects. Critics blame a
combination of high interest rates, poor management and federal bureaucracy for the banks
performance. They are urging Presidents Bush and Fox to overhaul the institution when they discuss the issue in Washington in
September. Officials from NADBank and its sister organization, the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission, met in
Washington last week to hammer out new loan guidelines in advance of the Bush-Fox summit but could not reach agreement.
Officials from the bank say they have only $350 million in cash to lend right now, not the $3 billion in capitalization pledged by the
U.S. and Mexico, but admit they are not meeting the challenge presented by border communities. "It's clear there's been a fatal
flaw in the execution of their mandate," said Raul Hinojosa-Ojeda, a UCLA professor who, as an adviser to President Clinton, helped
draft the rules of the banks lending process. "The Treasury Department has insisted the bank sets interest
rates above the market rate and that is completely inappropriate for the border's
infrastructure needs. It's been a wretched performance," Hinojosa-Ojeda said. NADBank, comprising U.S.
and Mexico state department, treasury and environmental agency officials, was formed through legislation parallel to NAFTA in
1996. The role of the Border Environmental Cooperation Commission is to identify and certify projects for NADBank to fund. While
only loaning $11 million during the last five years, NADBank has helped distribute grants totaling almost $1 billion to the border
region, most of the funds coming from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Mexican government has to match EPA
grants when the water and wastewater projects are for Mexican border communities.

NadBank is ineffective
LCLAA, Public Citizen, 04 (Labor Council for Latin American Advancement, Public Citizen, a nonprofit organization
based in Washington, D.C., dedicated to advancing consumer rights, through lobbying, litigation, research, publications and
information services, Another Americas is Possible: The Impact of NAFTA on the U.S. Latino Community and Lessons for Future
Trade Agreements, A Joint Report by Labor Council for Latin American Advancement and Public Citizens Global Trade Watch
http://www.citizen.org/documents/LatinosReportFINAL.pdf)//YS, accessed 7/02/13
The institutions created to fund environmental cleanup efforts and public health infrastructure development the Border
Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC) and the North American Development Bank (NADBank) have been
ineffective at best, hamstrung by cumbersome procedures and unreasonable criteria (such as
requiring impoverished communities to come up with matching funds in order to gain a loan
for assistance). During the NAFTA debate in 1993, NADBank was promoted to a skeptical Congress and public as offering an
expected lending capacity of $2 billion.38 However, by March 2004, it had still only disbursed $186 million in
financing for U.S. and Mexico projects combined.39 To put this in perspective, the cost of the U.S.-
Mexico border environmental cleanup was estimated by the Sierra Club in 1993 to be $20.7 billion.40
Since then, the problems have only worsened the Mexican government estimated the cost of NAFTA-related
environmental damage at $47 billion in 1999 alone.

No solvency security issues need to come first
Gerber and Valencia et al, 11 (January 24, the Director of the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS) and a
Professor of Economics at San Diego State University, Associate Professor, School of Transborder Studies, Senior Sustainability
Scientist, Global Institute of Sustainability Affiliate, North American Center for Transborder Studies, Director of the Research
Network for Transborder Development and Governance, Global Economy Journal, 10.4, Article 5, Re-Imagining the U.S.-Mexico
Border: Policies toward a More Competitive and Sustainable Transborder Region
http://www.degruyter.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/view/j/gej.2011.10.4/gej.2011.10.4.1681/gej.2011.10.4.1681.xml?format=INT)//YS,
accessed 6/28/13
There are numerous proposals for new border trade systems, competitive and sustainable
development, a prosperous and secure relationship, sustainable security and
competitiveness, and cooperative solutions to common problems. The authors of these proposals make
serious points and each of them is worth reading. There are dozens of concrete steps that might be taken and
many of the ideas appear to be realistic and reasonable. However, in the current climate of
terrorist fears, narco-violence, and migration worries, any way forward must begin from the
proposition that, for better or worse, in the current historical moment , security issues trump
all others .8 This is why the Bush Administration was able to obtain an environmental waiver for its border fence, why traffic
grinds to a halt and waits (and waits) at the border, why gang members are dumped in Mexican border cities, and
why new inspection systems on southbound traffic seem poised to create the same
bottlenecks that northbound travelers experience.

Projects financed by the NadBank have to be environmentally friendly
NADBANK, 12 (December, Information Statement,
http://www.nadbank.org/BondsAndInvestment/PDF/2012Information%20StatementDec10.pdf
)//YS, accessed 7/02/13
General. The North American Development Bank is a binational development financing institution established
by the United States of America (United States or U.S.) and the United Mexican States (UMS or Mexico) to finance
environmental infrastructure projects in the U.S.-Mexico border region. The Banks financing activities
historically focused on creating and sustaining drinking water supplies and developing wastewater treatment and municipal solid
waste management facilities. In 2000, its mandate was expanded by the Banks Board of Directors (the
Board) to include other sectors that have environmental and/or health benefits for the
residents of the border region, including air quality, clean energy, energy efficiency, public transportation and water
management. As part of this expanded mandate, the Bank participated in its first loan to a solar energy project in 2011, followed in
the first three quarters of 2012 by two additional solar energy project loans and one wind energy project loan. Additionally, the Bank
is currently working on financing seven additional projects (three wind energy, two solar energy, one air quality, and one water).
The financing agreements for these projects are in various stages of development (some are in final negotiations while others are
executed and actively disbursing), and all are expected to be executed by the end of 2012. The technical feasibility and
environmental impact of, and public participation with respect to, all projects to be financed by the Bank
are required to be evaluated and certified by the Border Environment Cooperation
Commission (BECC).

The aff hurts the border environment therefore it cant be financed by
NADBank
Rosenblum, 12 (Marc, January 6, Specialist in Immigration Policy, Congressional Research Service, Border Security:
Immigration Enforcement Between Ports of Entry, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/180681.pdf)//YS, accessed
7/02/13
On the other hand, the deployment of border enforcement personnel and infrastructure also entails a
number of costs at the local level. First, the construction of fencing, roads, and other tactical
infrastructure may damage border-area ecosystems. These environmental considerations may be especially
important because much of the border runs through remote and environmentally sensitive
areas.146 For this reason, even when accounting for the possible environmental benefits of reduced illegal border flows, some
environmental groups have opposed border infrastructure projects because they threaten
rare and endangered species as well as other wildlife by damaging ecosystems and restricting
the movement of animals, and because surveillance towers and artificial night lighting have detrimental effects on
migrant birds.147

1NC NORMALIZE RELATIONS
Politics
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)
Obamas PC key to overcome GOP opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.
Changing policy toward Cuba requires lots of PC
Williams 13 (A foreign correspondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reported
from more than 80 countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. A foreign
correspondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reported from more than 80
countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. May 03, 2013
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/03/world/la-fg-wn-cuba-us-terror-list-20130502)
Politicians who have pushed for a continued hard line against Cuba cheered their victory in
getting the Obama administration to keep Cuba on the list. U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a South Florida
Republican whose efforts to isolate and punish the Castro regime have been a central plank of her election strategy throughout her
24 years in Congress, hailed the State Department decision as reaffirming the threat that the Castro regime represents. Arash
Aramesh, a national security analyst at Stanford Law School, blamed the continued branding of Cuba as a
terrorism sponsor on politicians pandering for a certain political base. He also said President
Obama and Secretary of State John F. Kerry have failed to make a priority of removing the
impediment to better relations with Cuba. As much as Id like to see the Castro regime gone and an open and free
Cuba, it takes away from the State Departments credibility when they include countries on the list that arent even close to
threatening Americans, Aramesh said. Political considerations also factor into excluding countries from the state sponsor list, he
said, pointing to Pakistan as a prime example. Although Islamabad very clearly supports terrorist and insurgent organizations, he
said, the U.S. government has long refused to provoke its ally in the region with the official censure. The decision to retain Cuba on
the list surprised some observers of the long-contentious relationship between Havana and Washington. Since Fidel Castro retired
five years ago and handed the reins of power to his younger brother, Raul, modest economic reforms have been tackled and the
government has revoked the practice of requiring Cubans to get exit visas before they could leave their country for foreign travel.
There was talk early in Obamas first term of easing the 51-year-old embargo, and Kerry, though still in the Senate then, wrote a
commentary for the Tampa Bay Tribune in 2009 in which he deemed the security threat from Cuba a faint shadow. He called then
for freer travel between the two countries and an end to the U.S. policy of isolating Cuba that has manifestly failed for nearly 50
years. The political clout of the Cuban American community in South Florida and more recently
Havanas refusal to release Gross have kept any warming between the Cold War adversaries
at bay. Its a matter of political priorities and trade-offs, Aramesh said. He noted that former Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton last year exercised her discretion to get the Iranian opposition group Mujahedeen Khalq, or MEK,
removed from the governments list of designated terrorist organizations. That move was motivated by the hopes of some in
Congress that the group could be aided and encouraged to eventually challenge the Tehran regime. Its a question of how
much political cost you want to incur or how much political capital you want to spend, Aramesh
said. President Obama has decided not to reach out to Cuba, that he has more important
foreign policy battles elsewhere.
Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.
1NC CP Shell

Text: The President of the United States should remove all restrictions on
Cuban-American travel and remittances; grant visas to Cubans invited to the
United States to participate in educational, cultural, religious, humanitarian,
and scientific activities if they pass normal visa security reviews; communicate
to the Cuban government The United States desire to restore the diplomatic
function of the Interest Section as its core mission; immediately turn off the
electronic ticker-tape billboard on the Interests Section building in Havana;
propose immediate resumption of regular consultations with Cuba over
implementation of the migration agreements signed by Presidents Reagan and
Clinton; remove travel limits of U.S. and Cuban diplomats.
The counterplan competes and is DISTINCT from Economic Engagement

Rose and Spiegel 8
(Andrew K. and Mark M., Professor of International Business, Economic Analysis and Policy Group, Haas School of Business,
University of California, Berkeley; and Research Fellow, CEPR; and Vice President, Economic Research and Data at the Federal
Reserve Bank of San Francisco, respectively; NON-ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT AND INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE:
THE CASE OF ENVIRONMENTAL TREATIES, 2008, http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1, AC)
Countries, like people, interact with each other on a number of different dimensions. Some interactions
are strictly economic ; for instance, countries engage in international trade of goods, services, capital, and
labor. But many are not economic , at least not in any narrow sense. For instance, the United States seeks
to promote human rights and democracy, deter nuclear proliferation, stop the spread of
narcotics, and so forth. Accordingly America, like other countries, participates in a number of international
institutions to further its foreign policy objectives; it has joined security alliances like NATO, and international
organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency. In this paper, we concentrate on the interesting and understudied
case of international environmental arrangements (IEAs). We ask whether participation in such non-
economic partnerships tends to enhance international economic relations. The answer, in
both theory and practice, is positive. Memberships in IEAs yield costs and benefits. A country can
gain directly from such interactions; its air might be cleaner, or there might be more fish in the sea. However, some gains can be
indirect. For instance, countries with long horizons and low discount rates might be more willing both to protect
the environment and to maintain a reputation as a good credit risk. If they can signal their discount rate
through IEA activity, participation in IEAs may indirectly yield gains from improvements in credit terms. Alternatively, countries
that are tightly tied into a web of international relationships may find that withdrawing from one domain (such as
environmental cooperation), may adversely affect activities in an unrelated area (such as
finance). The fear of these spillovers may then encourage good behavior in the first area.

And, it solves the aff

LeoGrande 2k8
(William M. LeoGrande is dean of the School of Public Affairs at American
University in Washington, DC, and a specialist on U.S. relations with Latin
America. Engaging Cuba: A Roadmap, World Policy Journal 2008 25: 87, pg
Sage //um-ef)

From the time Fidel Castro seized power nearly three generations ago, Cuba has served as an important symbol to
Latin America. Washingtons unwavering hostility, which has spanned ten presidents from both political parties,
is an anachronistic remnant of the Cold Wara reminder of an era when the United States too often imposed its
will on Latin America in the name of its own national security. Nothing would more clearly signal the
visionary intent of a young and forward-looking global leader to open a new chapter in U.S.-Latin
American relations than a change in Cuba policy. It would be welcomed across the
hemisphere, and enable us to work together with our friends on a strategy to create a
positive climate for change in Cuba. Internally, Cuba is already in the midst of change, evolving from a centrally
planned economy controlled by a single Leninist party to a mixed, market-oriented economy and an increasingly plural civil
society. After Fidel Castro fell ill in August 2006 and his brother, Ral, replaced him as president, the younger Castro opened a
candid dialogue with Cubans about the problems they face. In a series of speeches, he acknowledged the inadequacy of state-
sector incomes, the inability of state farms to raise agricultural production, the existence of serious corruption and cronyism,
and the inequality produced by a dual currency system where people who have access to U.S. dollars and Euros through
employment in the tourist sector or from relatives abroad live far better than ordinary Cubans. Ral has promised action on
all these fronts, and has already adopted measures to make daily life easier such as replacing Havanas antiquated Soviet
buses with a fleet of new Chinese imports. Rals frank discussion of the regimes shortcomings and declarations of the need
for change have raised popular expectations enormously. From the Cuban leadership to the man and woman in the street,
Cubans agree that the old system needs a drastic overhaul. The pace and extent of
change are uncertain, especially on the political front, but they will depend in part on the
external environmentthe mix of incentives and disincentives for change that other
countries offer. During the presidential campaign, Senator Obama argued that Washingtons policy of hostility,
isolation, and economic denial had not achieved the desired result. Weve been engaged in a failed policy with Cuba for the
last 50 years, he declared at a campaign rally in Miami. And we need to change it. If the United States hopes to
exert a positive influence on the changes underway in Cuba, it must reestablish some
measure of engagement. More immediately, Cuba and its people are facing an acute crisis that the United States
can and should help alleviate, on both humanitarian grounds and out of selfinterest. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma
inflicted terrible damage to the Cuban economy, destroying many food crops and stored food supplies. The government itself
has warned of food shortages. Over the next year, falling consumption will increase pressures for migration, just as economic
privation in 1994, led to the balsero (rafters) migration crisis. President Bill Clinton thought he could put Cuba policy on the
backburner after the 1992 election, a shortsighted approach that left his administration unprepared for the migration crisis
that followed. President Obama should not repeat that mistake. Acting quickly and decisively now can reduce the likelihood
of another crisis next summer, but the cooperation of the Cuban government is essential to complement even the best of
American intentions. Engaging People and Government During the presidential campaign, Senator Obama offered
two elements of a new Cuba policylifting government restrictions on Cuban-American
family visits and remittances, and opening a diplomatic dialogue with the Cuban
government. These two elements comprise the core of a strategic shift in U.S. policy from
one of isolation and deprivation to one of engagement with both the Cuban people and
the Cuban government. We can engage the Cuban people by encouraging interaction
between U.S. and Cuban societies at all levelsvia CubanAmerican family linkages,
cultural and educational exchanges, scientific cooperation, and non-governmental
humanitarian assistance. President Clinton expanded these people-to-people contacts to good effect. President
George W. Bush, however, curtailed almost all interaction with Cuba by U.S. civil society. He ended most categories of travel
for cultural and educational purposes. He restricted religious, scientific, and Cuban-American travel. He virtually banned travel
to the United States by Cuban scholars, artists, and scientists. During the Bush years, authentic civil society contact between
the United States and Cuba was replaced by narrowly targeted U.S. government material support for selected Cuban
dissidents. Washington publicly proclaimed that this support was intended to subvert the government, leading Cuban
authorities to do everything possible to make Americas efforts ineffective, including the imprisonment of many aid
recipients. Engaging the Cuban government diplomatically will reduce bilateral tensions,
help avoid future crises, and advance U.S. interests on a variety of issues . Every American
president from Dwight D. Eisenhower to Bill Clinton held negotiations with Cuba, and Ronald Reagan signed more agreements
with Havana than any other president. Only George W. Bush refused to see the utility of skillful
diplomacy. Just as he cut off people to-people exchanges, he cut off virtually all
diplomatic contact between the United States and Cuba, using the U.S. diplomatic
mission in Havana as a depot for aiding Cuban dissidents while publicly excoriating the
Cuban government. President Obama has declared that the goal of U.S. policy should be to seek democ racy in Cuba,
but diplomacy offers only an indirect path to a democratic opening. Cuban leaders will not negotiate
their domestic political arrangements with a foreign country, any more than we would. When Ral Castro offered in 2006 to
negotiate with the United States on a basis of equality and mutual respect for sovereignty, he was signaling his rejection of
U.S. demands that Cuba change its political regime. That has been Cubas unwavering position since 1959, and if we insist on
explicitly adding democracy to the agenda, negotiations will go nowhere. Our allies in Latin America and the
European Union who have been pursuing strategies of engagement with Cuba for many years can attest that this is the
one issue that is always off the table. Nevertheless, through engagement they have been able to reach
bilateral agreements with Cuba on issues of mutual interest and, in some cases, win
freedom for some political prisoners. A strategy of engagement should be designed to
create an international environment that makes it beneficial for Cuban leaders to allow
greater political and economic liberty on the island, while at the same time creating a
more vibrant civil society that will, in time, press Cubas leaders from below to allow a
political opening. This indirect approach will not work quickly and it offers no guarantees, although similar strategies
proved successful in promoting democratic transitions in Spain and Greece in the 1970s, in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico during
their transition from authoritarian rule, and in Eastern Europe at the end of the communist era.
China DA
Chinas influence in North American trade is expanding
Shaiken et al 13
[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters
Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de
Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New
Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg
7-8]
This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a process beginning
in 2001 with Chinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the
U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since
2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massive trade volume with both the
U.S. and Mexico. The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with
both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade
dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the
United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our
examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the
region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen
sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-
2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export markets in
the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products such as
telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing accessories and
garments, among many others. NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-
2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as
autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the
predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment,
employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the
gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small
portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even
in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA , the integration process did not allow for
the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has
shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-
industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have
been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in
debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).
Chinas influence is zero-sum- lack of US influence is key
Kreps, 13 Assistant Professors of Government at Cornell University (Sarah E., No Strings
Attached? Evaluating Chinas Trade Relations Abroad, May 17, http://thediplomat.com/china-
power/no-strings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad)//VP
To be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment on
foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this gravitational effect has a sound
economic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are comparatively much more dependent on China than
China is on these countries. In a ten year period, for example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic
Product. That pattern is even starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While
China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less important
to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining
advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by
design or not, the convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is important on at least two
levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering
with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United
States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the level of new
colonialism as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that
undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the
same period in which Chinas trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have
increased, the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This
suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which Chinas growing trade relations make it
easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing. Taken together,
these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001
attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted
its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial
relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means
of projecting influence abroad.
Influence in Cuba key to Chinas overall Latin American agenda.
Hearn 09 Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney. Kiriyama
Research Fellow at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim
(Adrian, "China's relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report No
52, January, usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html)//VP
China is Cubas second largest trading partner after Venezuela, with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral trade reported
for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is more valuable to Cuba than to China, though this could
change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations in Cuba expand.
Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin Americas New Left, Cuba
is a unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China, whose pursuit of Latin
American natural resources is at least as voracious as that of the United States, cooperation with Cuba,
strongly supported by Ral Castro, decreases the danger of being perceived in the region as an
externalpotentially imperialisticthreat to economic sovereignty.
Chinese international influence is an existential impact it controls every
scenario for extinction
Zhang 12
[Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas Political
Softpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive
both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including
widespread poverty , international conflict , the clash of civilizations and environmental
protection . Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues;
the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these
dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened
poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that
in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are
striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of
development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to
virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful
in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of
"exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of
terrorism threatens global security . In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most
precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international
cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of
civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world,
which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet
promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash
of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to
respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of
Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China.
China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its
"self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their
people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for
the emission of greenhouse gases . Although Europeans and Americans have a strong
awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles.
Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective
environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China model The China
model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the above four issues
grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizing modernization while
maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense of human consciousness.
Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't be explained by
Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has significantly
helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing poverty, and
manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.

Gradualism
Gradual reforms now key to a stable transition
Piccone 13(Ted Piccone Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings
Institute, Time to Bet on Cuba March 18, 2013
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana, RLA)

Under Castro, the Cuban government has undertaken important reforms to modernize and
liberalize the economy. Cubans are now permitted to buy and sell property, open their own
businesses, hire employees and enter into co-ops, with state-owned enterprises on a more
equal footing. The updating of the Soviet-style economic system is a gradual and highly
controlled process. But the recent legal emergence of formal, small-scale private businesses
(cuentapropistas) that can now compete on a more equal footing with state-owned enterprises
opens a window into a profound shift in thinking already under way on the island. The reforms
also offer new opportunities for U.S. engagement . Castros loosening of the apron strings
extends beyond the economy. In January, the Cuban government lifted exit controls for most
citizens, which is likely to accelerate the process of reconciliation within the Cuban diaspora. It
could also result in a swift uptick of Cubans departing for the United States, demanding a
reconsideration of U.S. migration policy to manage the increase. The gradual handoff of power
to a next generation of more pragmatic party and military leaders who will determine the
pace and scope of the reform process is yet further evidence that the Castro generation is
looking forward to securing a viable legacy.
Lifting the Embargo would pressure Cuba for rapid reforms
Cave, 12 foreign correspondent for The New York Times, based in Mexico City and has a B.A.
from Boston College and an M.S. from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism
(Damien, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo, NY Times, 11/19/12,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-
easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EX

Still, in a country where Cubans resolve their way around government restrictions every day
(private deals with customs agents are common), many Cubans anticipate real benefits should
the United States change course. Mr. Lpez, a meticulous mechanic who wears plastic gloves to
avoid dirtying his fingers, said legalizing imports and investment would create a flood of the
supplies that businesses needed, overwhelming the governments controls while lowering prices
and creating more work apart from the state. Other Cubans, including political dissidents , say
softening the embargo would increase the pressure for more rapid change by undermining one
of the governments main excuses for failing to provide freedom, economic opportunity or just
basic supplies. Last month, someone asked me to redo their kitchen, but I told them I couldnt
do it because I didnt have the materials, said Pedro Jos, 49, a licensed carpenter in Havana
who did not want his last name published to avoid government pressure. Look around Cuba
is destroyed, he added, waving a hand toward a colonial building blushing with circles of faded
pink paint from the 1950s. There is a lot of work to be done.

Slow change key to Cuban reform - avoids rapid regime collapse
Feinberg 11 - professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident senior
fellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., Reaching Out: Cubas New
Economy and the International Response, November, Brookings,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/11
18_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//ID

Gradualism: Gradualism in economic reformas opposed to an Eastern European-style sudden
regime collapseappears to be the most likely scenario that Cuba will follow. As a result of
economic reforms, albeit halting and partial, Cuba today is different from the Cuba of 1989 . In
2011, Cubas current leadership, however aging and proud, promulgated reform guidelines that
recognize the imperative of change and that empower the pro-reform factions. Moreover, as
suggested by successful Asian experiences (Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China), where
political leadership provides stability and continuity, gradualism can be a feasibleindeed it
may well be the only realisticoption. Gradualism must not, however, be an excuse for policy
paralysis or a smoke-screen for maintenance of the status quo.
Rapid change risks Cuban civil war
Feinberg 11 - professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident senior
fellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., Reaching Out: Cubas New
Economy and the International Response, November, Brookings,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/11
18_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//ID
Some in the United States have long supported severe sanctions intended to starve the Cuban
regime of resources and thereby precipitate a political breakdown . Yet, within the national
security bureaucracy of the U .S . Executive Branch, notwithstanding occasional presidential
rhetoric, there is a strong preference for gradual, peaceful evolution in Cuba . A sudden
breakdown, it is feared, would entail substantial risks for U .S . interests, including an
immigration crisis right off of our shores, and in the worst case, irresistible pressures for
intervention to quell a bloody civil war and halt a mass exodus of refugees.

This turns every part of the aff
NAM, 1 editor of Foreign Policy (MOISS, When Countries go Crazy, MARCH 1, 2001,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2001/03/01/when_countries_go_crazy)//eek

Some countries can drive other countries crazy. When people have this effect on one another, it
is because of imbalances in the brains neurotransmitters. With countries, it often happens
because of the disproportionate influence of special interests. Cuba, for example, has long
driven the United States crazy. Just think of the Bay of Pigs invasion or the outsourcing of
Castro's assassination to the Mafia. For more recent examples of irrational behavior, think of the
Helms-Burton Law or Elin. The problem is that Cuba not only drives the United States crazy but
also seems to induce some acute form of learning disability among U.S. politicians. Cuba makes
them forget -- or unlearn -- everything the world has painfully discovered about the transition
from communism. This knowledge can be distilled into five simple maxims: Lesson one: Failure is
more common than success in the transition to a democratic market economy. Lesson two: The
less internationally integrated, more centralized, and more personalized a former communist
regime was, the more traumatic and unsuccessful its transition will be. Lesson three:
Dismantling a communist state is far easier and faster than building a functional replacement for
it. Lesson four: The brutal, criminal ways of a powerful Communist party with a tight grip on
public institutions are usually supplanted by the brutal, criminal ways of powerful private
business conglomerates with a tight grip on public institutions. Lesson five: Introducing a market
economy without a strong and effective state capable of regulating it gives resourceful
entrepreneurs more incentive to emulate Al Capone than Bill Gates. It is therefore safe to
assume that if the Castro regime suddenly implodes, Cuba will end up looking more like Albania
than the Bahamas. But that is not the assumption on which U.S politicians base their efforts to
hasten Castro's demise. Although a lot of money, political capital, and thought have been
expended trying to overthrow the Cuban government, ideas about what to do the morning after
are scarce and often unrealistic. They usually hinge on the expectation that in the post-Castro
era democracy will emerge and Cuban-American exiles will lead other investors in transforming
Cuba into a capitalist hub. More likely is that instead of a massive flow of foreign investment
into Cuba, the United States will get a massive inflow of refugees escaping the chaos of a post-
Castro regime. Frictions between Cuban-Cubans and Miami-Cubans will make politics nasty and
unstable. New investments and privatizations will be mired in the legal mess produced by the
5,911 claims to property in Cuba (valued at more than $17 billion) that have been filed with the
United States Claims Commission by former property owners. (That amounts to nearly seven
years' worth of Cuban exports.) The Cuban public sector is inextricably intertwined with the
Communist Party, so the demise of the party will paralyze the government, at least for a while.
And the cost of any resulting humanitarian crisis will mainly be borne by U.S. taxpayers, who will
likely pay much more than the $2 billion spent containing the influx of Haitian refugees in 1994.
But can't the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the International
Monetary Fund support Cuba's transition with money, experts, and projects? Sure, except that
the United States forbids them from spending even a dollar to prepare themselves and Cuba for
the coming transition. The result is that these institutions are not ready to help Cuba. Again, the
United States forgets a useful lesson from another continent: The day after Yasser Arafat and
Yitzhak Rabin shook hands at the White House in 1993, the World Bank -- ---which had been
instructed to prepare for the event -- was immediately ready to lend and invest in projects
under the control of the Palestinian Authority, even though the authority was not and still is not
a member of the bank. Allowing such an initiative in Cuba's case would cost U.S. taxpayers
nothing and would help plan for the challenges ahead. Also, training Cuban professionals to run
a modern market economy is bound to be a better investment for the United States than
blocking academic exchanges with the island. The rational, self-interested approach for the
United States that also avoids much future human pain in Cuba is to concentrate all efforts on
ensuring as smooth a transition as possible. This view, of course, is not shared by all. U.S.
Senator Jesse Helms recently said that "the opponents of the Cuban embargo are about to run
into a brick wall on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. President Bush is a committed
supporter of the embargo." The failure of the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba to achieve its
stated objectives over the last 40 years is dismissed by Senator Helms and some Cuban-
Americans who argue that the embargo has never been vigorously implemented. Perhaps, as
Senator Helms predicts, things are about to change and the aging Cuban dictator will finally fall.
If Cuba collapses and becomes a failed state 90 miles away from U.S. shores, the epicenter of
the Caribbean drug trade, the source of a massive flood of refugees to the United States, a
corruption haven, and a black hole for substantial sums of U.S. aid, President Bush will have no
one to blame but himself. Or, more precisely, the powerful interest groups that blinded him to
the lessons of experience

Case
Ag turn
Removing the embargo crushes sustainable Cuban agriculture
Carmen G. Gonzalez, Assistant Professor, Seattle University School of Law, Summer 2003, SEASONS OF RESISTANCE:
SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CUBA, p. 729-33
Notwithstanding these problems, the greatest challenge to the agricultural development strategy adopted by the Cuban
government in the aftermath of the Special Period is likely to be external the renewal of trade relations with the United
States. From the colonial era through the beginning of the Special Period, economic development in Cuba has
been constrained by Cubas relationship with a series of primary trading partners.
Cubas export-oriented sugar monoculture and its reliance on imports to satisfy domestic food needs
was imposed by the Spanish colonizers, reinforced by the United States, and
maintained during the Soviet era. It was not until the collapse of the socialist trading
bloc and the strengthening of the U.S. embargo that Cuba was able to embark upon a
radically different development path. Cuba was able to transform its agricultural development model as a
consequence of the political and economic autonomy occasioned by its relative economic isolation, including its exclusion from
major international financial and trade institutions. Paradoxically, while the U.S. embargo subjected Cuba to immense
economic hardship, it also gave the Cuban government free rein to adopt agricultural policies
that ran counter to the prevailing neoliberal model and that protected Cuban farmers
against ruinous competition from highly subsidized agricultural producers in the
United States and the European Union. Due to U.S. pressure, Cuba was excluded from regional and
international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Inter-American
Development Bank.n413 Cuba also failed to reach full membership in any regional trade association and was barred from the
negotiations for the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, as U.S. agribusiness clamors to ease trade restrictions
with Cuba, the lifting of the embargo and the end of Cubas economic isolation may only be a matter of time. It is unclear how
the Cuban government will respond to the immense political and economic pressure from the United States to enter into
bilateral or multilateral trade agreements that would curtail Cuban sovereignty and erode protection for Cuban
agriculture.n416 If Cuba accedes to the dictates of agricultural trade liberalization, it
appears likely that Cubas gains in agricultural diversification and food self-
sufficiency will be undercut by cheap, subsidized food imports from the United States
and other industrialized countries. Furthermore, Cubas experiment with organic and
semi-organic agriculture may be jeopardized if the Cuban government is either unwilling or unable to
restrict the sale of agrochemicals to Cuban farmers as the Cuban government failed to restrict U.S. rice imports in the first
half of the twentieth century. Cuba is once again at a crossroads as it was in 1963, when the government
abandoned economic diversification, renewed its emphasis on sugar production, and replaced its trade dependence on the
United States with trade dependence on the socialist bloc. In the end, the future of Cuban agriculture will likely turn on a
combination of external factors (such as world market prices for Cuban exports and Cubas future economic integration with
the United States) and internal factors (such as the level of grassroots and governmental support for the alternative
development model developed during the Special Period). While this Article has examined the major pieces of legislation that
transformed agricultural production in Cuba, and the governments implementation of these laws, it is important to remember
that these reforms had their genesis in the economic crisis of the early 1990s and in the creative legal, and extra-legal, survival
strategies developed by ordinary Cubans. The distribution of land to thousands of small producers and the promotion of urban
agriculture were in response to the self-help measures undertaken by Cuban citizens during the Special Period. As the
economic crisis intensified, Cuban citizens spontaneously seized and cultivated parcels of land in state farms, along the
highways, and in vacant lots, and started growing food in patios, balconies, front yards, and community gardens. Similarly, the
opening of the agricultural markets was in direct response to the booming black market and its deleterious effect on the states
food distribution system. Finally, it was the small private farmer, the neglected stepchild of the Revolution, who kept alive the
traditional agroecological techniques that formed the basis of Cubas experiment with organic agriculture. The survival of
Cubas alternative agricultural model will therefore depend, at least in part, on whether this model is viewed by Cuban citizens
and by the Cuban leadership as a necessary adaptation to severe economic crisis or as a path-breaking achievement worthy of
pride and emulation. The history of Cuban agriculture has been one of resistance and accommodation to larger economic and
political forces that shaped the destiny of the island nation. Likewise, the transformation of Cuban agriculture has occurred
through resistance and accommodation by Cuban workers and farmers to the hardships of the Special Period. The lifting
of the U.S. economic embargo and the subjection of Cuba to the full force of economic
globalization will present an enormous challenge to the retention of an agricultural
development model borne of crisis and isolation. Whether Cuba will be able to resist
the re-imposition of a capital-intensive, export-oriented, import-reliant agricultural
model will depend on the ability of the Cuban leadership to appreciate the benefits of
sustainable agriculture and to protect Cubas alternative agricultural model in the
face of overwhelming political and economic pressure from the United States and
from the global trading system.
No failed state
The Purpose of the embargo was to overthrow the Castro regime failed
because of international trade, means Cuba can never be a failed state
Dickerson 10 Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of
Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, UNITED STATES SECURITY
STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA, 1/14/10,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//GPastor
Policy and National Interest Present U.S. policy towards Cuba is economic isolation imposed
via embargo to coerce Cuba into establishing a representative government. While the basic
policy remains unchanged, the same is not true about U.S. interests in Cuba. During the Cold
War, stated U.S. interest was to contain Communism, the leading edge of which was Cuba.
More than anything the U.S. wanted Castros demise but international support hinged on
preventing the spread of communism. After 1989, communism was under siege and capitalism
was on the rise. U.S. interests now shifted towards peace and regional stability. Of course,
removing the Castro regime was still the preferred method, but without Soviet collusion
Castros Cuba was no longer a credible threat to the U.S. Not surprisingly, international support
quickly dwindled leaving the U.S. as the unilateral enforcer. In hindsight many argued it was the
right time to loosen the embargo and seek better relations with Cuba. Instead, a renewed
passion to topple Castro and establish democracy fractured any hopes to rekindle relations. In
retrospect, Kennedy could not have foreseen a 50-year embargo that survives the Soviet Unions
demise but fails to remove Castro. The same cannot be said about the Obama Administration
today. This section will analyze U.S. Cuba policy, past opportunities and ultimate failure over
the past 50 years. By the time President Clinton came to office, momentum had already shifted
in Cubas favor. Cubas economy began to rise in 1994 reaching its apex in 1996 with a 41%
increase thanks to foreign investments in tourism. The introduction of the Helms Burton
legislation in 1996 gained Congressional traction after the Cuban Air force shot down two, anti-
Castro Brothers in Rescue, planes over Cuba. The Helms-Burton Act created unrealistic
expectations for the Cuban government before U.S. would loosen restrictions with Cuba. A total
of eight requirements had to be met and the most controversial of these included; a
transitional government in place unlike the Castro regime; the dissolution of the Department
of State; Cuba must hold free and fair elections and a controversial property law that allowed
property owners that left Cuba as early as 1959, to make claims in U.S. Courts on that
property. With Cubas economy on the rise, this new measure to tighten the noose failed
terribly and only succeeded in further alienating both governments. The second Bush
Administration did little to engage Cuba and after September 11, 2001, was completely
engrossed in the War on Terror. U.S. policy towards Cuba has changed little in 50 years.
Although the embargo continues to fail despite our best efforts to tighten it, our policy has
remained steadfast and the U.S. is no closer to normalizing relations with Cuba.

No impact to relations
No Impact to prolonging all impediments to normalized relations Cuba
inevitably succeeds without US support
Dickerson 10 Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master of
Strategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, UNITED STATES SECURITY
STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA, 1/14/10,
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//Gpastor
The logical question with regards to current U.S. Cuba policy is whether its feasible to
continue the current policy. At least for the foreseeable future, the answer is yes . It equates
to doing nothing diplomatically, militarily and economically. Perhaps this 15option is
appealing given a robust domestic agenda and U.S. involvement in two wars. According to
Professor Schwab and other experts however, the U.S. has lost the information campaign
targeted at the Cuban people. It has only, buttressed Fidels popularity in Cuba and
elsewhere, which eviscerates the very purposes the embargo was set up for.30 Its like the
classic biblical story of David triumphing over Goliath the bigger the oppressor the greater the
victory. True or not, Fidel has made the case successfully to the Cuban people. While its
feasible for the U.S. to pursue the current course there is no evidence it will succeed.
How acceptable is it to U.S. foreign policy? There are three elements of national power that
highlight our current policy: diplomacy, economy and law enforcement. It is subjective to
evaluate acceptability strictly in terms of current national power invested and subsequent pay
offs in foreign policy. U.S. needs international cooperation to achieve the coercive effects that
only complete economic strangulation can accomplish. This is tough to do and North Korea and
Iran bear this true. If we look at it from a broader international and economic perspective we
can begin to see why its not acceptable. Take a UN General Assembly vote renouncing the U.S.-
led embargo on Cuba for instance; since1992 there has been overwhelming vote to end the
embargo.31 In essence, it has garnered sympathy for Castro and encouraged western nations
like Canada and Spain to continue open relations with Cuba. Even if the embargo could work,
U.S. diplomacy has failed to yield the international tourniquet needed to bring change in
Cuba. Applying economic force without first garnering the necessary diplomatic support failed
to achieve intended changes succeeding instead in hurting the Cuban people it hoped to
protect. Whether or not an embargo can work in Cuba is suspect but succeeding without
international support is impossible. Since the embargo hinges on a larger multinational
participation, international and not just U.S. acceptability is necessary to achieve U.S. ends in
Cuba.

Econ
Cubas economy wont fail now investments from Venezuela, china, Vietnam,
Canada, brazil, spain, and aid from catholic church
Stephens and Laverty, 2011- Center for Democracy in the Americas Collin has a magnificent
combination of traits; he is an intellectual, a quintessential American whose personal
relationships run deep among Cubans, and a loyal friend to CDA. Sarah Stephens, Executive
Director of CDA, Cubas New Resolve Economic Reform and its Implications for U.S. Policy
What More Can Be Done in Cuba to Make the Reforms Succeed?
http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/CDA_Cubas_New_Resolve.pdf)//GP
While Cuban government officials and scholars assure each other there will be no China model
or Vietnam model in Cuba and that the process will be purely Cuban, they are studying other
socialist transformations and looking for a way the international community can play a role in
Cubas economic reforms. Improved relations with China in the 1990s coincided with the Cuban
militarys growing role in the economy and a number of military officials have studied there.
Prominent Cuban economists recently traveled to Vietnam to analyze its economic model, and a
recent publication of Temas, an academic journal widely read among Cuban intellectuals, was
devoted to studying transitions in other countries. Furthermore, high-level Cuban officials
visited China and Vietnam following the 6th Party Congress to update leaders there on the
countrys economic plans. Venezuela and Chinaand other countriesare making significant
investments in Cubas oil industry, hoping to find commercially viable deposits in the Gulf of
Mexico. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Canadians continue to flock to Cubas beaches
and urban centers, while a Canadian company plays a key role in the nickel sector. According
to Canadian officials, the country hopes to leverage its trade and travel relations with Cuba to
offer technical assistance on economic reforms. Brazil and Spain have also engaged with
Cuba on the reform process, offering funds and technical assistance to make the process run
smoother. Spain offered $5.5 million in microcredit to Cuba to help the development of small
businesses,122 and Brazil has made a similar offer along with assistance in reforming Cubas
tax structure. The two countries signed an agreement in March 2010 for Brazil to provide
technical assistance to Cubas banking sector.123 The Spanish Agency for International
Development Cooperation (AECID) has begun engaging with Cuba in capacity-building measures
in several areas of the economy. Canada has also offered assistance on various aspects of
economic reform, such as tax policy. Many other nations expect to intensify their
engagement with Cuba on microfinance and other technical assistance, once Cubas
government is ready. The Cuban Catholic Church has played a critical role in pushing for and
creating more pluralistic opportunities for debating change in Cuba. Espacio Laical, the
Churchs official journal, has become a frequent platform for important essays about social
and economic change in Cuba. Additionally, conferences are held by the Church each year to
discuss important themes in Cuban society and have expanded in scope to include Cubans living
outside the country and specialists with the government. The Church also offers leadership
classes, focused on building skills related to free-enterprise, such as accounting and
marketing. The Church recently announced it will offer M.B.A. degrees to Cubans through a
partnership with a Spanish university124 and is in talks with the government to expand the
limited micro loan program, to a potentially multi-million dollar fund of credit for
entrepreneurs. Each of these effortsinitiated in Cuba and by sympathetic actorsare useful
on their own terms.
Multilat
Cuba Policy cant solve multilateralism recent OAS meetings prove several
barriers to multilateralism
Reuters 12, their 1ac card (Brian Ellsworth, Despite Obama charm, Americas summit
boosts U.S. isolation, 4/16/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-americas-
summit-obama-idUSBRE83F0UD20120416)//GPastor
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama sat patiently through diatribes, interruptions and even the
occasional eye-ball roll at the weekend Summit of the Americas in an effort to win over Latin
American leaders fed up with U.S. policies. He failed. The United States instead emerged from
the summit in Colombia increasingly isolated as nearly 30 regional heads of state refused to
sign a joint declaration in protest against the continued exclusion of communist-led Cuba from
the event. The rare show of unity highlights the steady decline of Washington's influence in a
region that has become less dependent on U.S. trade and investment thanks economic growth
rates that are the envy of the developed world and new opportunities with China. It also
signals a further weakening of the already strained hemispheric system of diplomacy, built
around the Organization of American States (OAS) which has struggled to remain relevant
during a time of rapid change for its members. Seen as an instrument of U.S. policy in Latin
America during the Cold War, the OAS has lost ground in a region that is no longer content with
being the backyard of the United States. "It seems the United States still wants to isolate us
from the world, it thinks it can still manipulate Latin America, but that's ending," said Bolivian
President Evo Morales, a fierce critic of U.S. policy in Latin America and staunch ally of
Venezuela's leftist leader Hugo Chavez. "What I think is that this is a rebellion of Latin American
countries against the United States." NEWFOUND UNITY White House officials disagreed with
the notion that the failure to agree on issues like Cuba signaled a new dynamic to U.S.
relations within the hemisphere. "We've had disagreements on those issues for decades," a
senior Obama aide said. "They are built into the equation. They are about theater -- not
substance."
Say no
Castro eliminates free trade with the US counter-revolutionary
Margulies, 8 JD, New York University (Michael, STRONGER TRADE OR STRONGER EMBARGO:
WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR UNITED STATES-CUBA RELATIONS 8 Asper Rev. Int'l Bus. &
Trade L. 147, lexis)
Should all the requisite factors fall into place on the U.S. side in order to ease or lift the
existing trade restrictions against the export of agricultural commodities - or even allow other
forms of trade - there is no guarantee that Cuba will seize the opportunity to enter into such
an enhanced relationship with the United States. As evidenced by its initial rejection of the
U.S. offer to export agricultural goods in 2001, immediately following the adoption of TSRA,
n155 Cuba may be less willing [*174] to accept such an offer than an economic analysis
would indicate. For Cuba, U.S. commodities - whether agricultural or of another nature - may
be significantly cheaper than those offered by other trade partners, as a result of the
proximity between the two countries and the related transportation costs. n156 The Cuban
government, however, whether under the leadership of Fidel or Raul, has very strong ideals
and convictions when it comes to relations with the United States. These may impede the
expansion of any such trade.
It is well known that one of the central tenets of the Cuban Revolution and the Castro regime is
a strong policy against "neo-liberal globalization," the United States and capitalist
imperialism. n157 These convictions may lead Cuba to balk at the opportunity to take
advantage of some forms of trade with the United States. Such selectivity has been present
even under TSRA-authorized trade with Alimport. Cuba has claimed that the reduction in
purchases by Alimport in 2005 came not as a result of tightened restrictions by the Bush
administration and subsequent difficulties working out contracts with U.S. agricultural
entities, but rather as a result of "efforts by the government of the Republic of Cuba to
increase the motivation of United States-based companies, organization; state and local
governmental representatives; and Members of the United States Congress to be more visible in
their lobbying efforts for changes in United States policy, law and regulations." n158


CUBAN OIL 1NC
Politics
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Cuban-Americans oppose Cuban oil drilling fear it will extend Castros reign
National Geographic, 12, (National Geographic News, Cubas Oil Quest to Continue, Despite
Deepwater Disappointment, 9/19,
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/11/121119-cuba-oil-quest/) //LA
For many Floridians, especially in the Cuban-American community, it was welcome news this
month that Cuba had drilled its third unsuccessful well this year and was suspending
deepwater oil exploration. (Related Pictures: "Four Offshore Drilling Frontiers") While some feared
an oil spill in the Straits of Florida, some 70 miles (113 kilometers) from the U.S. coast, others
were concerned that drilling success would extend the reviled reign of the Castros, long-time
dictator Fidel and his brother and hand-picked successor, Ral. "The regime's latest efforts to bolster their
tyrannical rule through oil revenues was unsuccessful," said U.S. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Florida Republican who
chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a written statement. But Cuba's disappointing foray into deepwater doesn't end its
quest for energy. The nation produces domestically only about half the oil it consumes. As with every aspect of its economy, its
choices for making up the shortfall are sorely limited by the 50-year-old United States trade embargo. At what could be a time of
transition for Cuba, experts agree that the failure of deepwater exploration increases the Castro regime's dependence on the leftist
government of Venezuela, which has been meeting fully half of Cuba's oil needs with steeply subsidized fuel. (Related: "Cuba's New
Now") And it means Cuba will continue to seek out a wellspring of energy independence without U.S. technology, greatly increasing
both the challenges, and the risks. Given its prospects, it's doubtful that Cuba will give up its hunt for oil. The U.S. Geological
Survey estimates that the waters north and west of Cuba contain 4.6 billion barrels of oil. State-owned Cubapetroleo says
undiscovered offshore reserves all around the island may be more than 20 billion barrels, which would be double the reserves of
Mexico. But last week, Scarabeo 9 headed away from Cuban shores for new deepwater prospects elsewhere. That leaves Cuba
without a platform that can drill in the ultradeepwater that is thought to hold the bulk of its stores. "This rig is the only shovel they
have to dig for it," said Jorge Pion, a former president of Amoco Oil Latin America (now part of BP) and an expert on Cuba's energy
sector who is now a research fellow at the University of Texas at Austin.Many in the Cuban-American
community, like Ros-Lehtinenthe daughter of an anti-Castro author and businessman, who
emigrated from Cuba with her family as a childhailed the development. She said it was important to keep up
pressure on Cuba, noting that another foreign oil crew is heading for the island; Russian state-owned Zarubezhneft is expected
to begin drilling this month in a shallow offshore field. She is sponsoring a bill that would further tighten the U.S. embargo to punish
companies helping in Cuba's petroleum exploration. "An oil-rich Castro regime is not in our interests," she
said.
Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.
China DA
Chinas influence in North American trade is expanding
Shaiken et al 13
[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters
Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de
Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New
Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg
7-8]
This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a process beginning
in 2001 with Chinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the
U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since
2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massive trade volume with both the
U.S. and Mexico. The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with
both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade
dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the
United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our
examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the
region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen
sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-
2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export markets in
the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products such as
telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing accessories and
garments, among many others. NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-
2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as
autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the
predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment,
employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the
gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small
portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even
in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA , the integration process did not allow for
the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has
shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-
industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have
been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in
debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).
Chinas influence is zero-sum- lack of US influence is key
Kreps, 13 Assistant Professors of Government at Cornell University (Sarah E., No Strings
Attached? Evaluating Chinas Trade Relations Abroad, May 17, http://thediplomat.com/china-
power/no-strings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad)//VP
To be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment on
foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this gravitational effect has a sound
economic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are comparatively much more dependent on China than
China is on these countries. In a ten year period, for example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic
Product. That pattern is even starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While
China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less important
to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining
advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by
design or not, the convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is important on at least two
levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering
with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United
States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the level of new
colonialism as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that
undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the
same period in which Chinas trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have
increased, the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This
suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which Chinas growing trade relations make it
easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing. Taken together,
these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001
attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted
its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial
relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means
of projecting influence abroad.
Influence in Cuba key to Chinas overall Latin American agenda.
Hearn 09 Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney. Kiriyama
Research Fellow at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim
(Adrian, "China's relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report No
52, January, usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html)//VP
China is Cubas second largest trading partner after Venezuela, with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral trade reported
for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is more valuable to Cuba than to China, though this could
change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations in Cuba expand.
Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin Americas New Left, Cuba
is a unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China, whose pursuit of Latin
American natural resources is at least as voracious as that of the United States, cooperation with Cuba,
strongly supported by Ral Castro, decreases the danger of being perceived in the region as an
externalpotentially imperialisticthreat to economic sovereignty.
Chinese international influence is an existential impact it controls every
scenario for extinction
Zhang 12
*Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas Political
Softpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive
both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including
widespread poverty , international conflict , the clash of civilizations and environmental
protection . Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues;
the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these
dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened
poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that
in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are
striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of
development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to
virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful
in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of
"exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of
terrorism threatens global security . In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most
precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international
cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of
civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world,
which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet
promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash
of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to
respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of
Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China.
China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its
"self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their
people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for
the emission of greenhouse gases . Although Europeans and Americans have a strong
awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles.
Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective
environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China model The China
model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the above four issues
grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizing modernization while
maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense of human consciousness.
Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't be explained by
Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has significantly
helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing poverty, and
manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.


CP (more cards in cuba oil file)
Text: Brazil should assist Cuba with their off shore oil drilling
Brazil takes oil spills seriously Chevron incident proves

Tavener, 11- Senior Contributing Reporter (Ben, Police Probe Chevron Oil Clean-Up: Daily,
The Rio Rimes, November 20, 2011, http://riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/rio-politics/police-
probe-chevron-oil-clean-up-daily/#)//TWR
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL Brazils Federal Police will investigate claims made by State
Environment Secretary Carlos Minc, who has accused oil company Chevron of implementing
an illegal sandblasting technique to deal with the slick caused by a recent leak in deep-water
oil fields off the Rio de Janeiro coastline. Aerial pictures show the oil slick 230 miles off the Rio
coastline; officials says nearly 110,000 gallons of oil may have leaked into the Atlantic, image
recreation. He also said that the company would have to stop production while the clean-up
process was completed. If the accusations are proven, the U.S. oil giant could face
environment crimes charges, which could lead to the company being banned from bidding for
contracts for the vast pre-salt reserves, and even prison sentences of up to four years,
Brazilian media reports. Chevron has denied the claims, telling Globo News that they have
not used sand or dispersants, instead implementing containment barriers, skimming and
washing techniques to tackle the slick. Another police investigation is already underway into
the causes of the incident. The sandblasting technique can seriously affect marine life as,
when mixed with the sand, the oil drops to the seafloor. Chevron president George Buck has
assumed responsibility for the accident, blaming the leak on a miscalculation in the pressure
of the oil reservoir. Chevron is said to have been alerted to the spill by Brazils state-run
Petrobras oil company, which operates a nearby well.
Petrobras capable of solving spills hundreds of workers, equipment stock
piled, dedicated vessels, drills conducted
Ryst, 13Sonja Ryst is a financial reporter for Business Insider [Biweekly View: Petrobras
Grapples With Oil Spill Prevention, http://mobile.businessinsider.com/biweekly-view-
petrobras-grapples-with-oil-spill-prevention-2013-1]//MM

That said, Petrobras' team has taken numerous steps to cope with its rising risks, They have
hundreds of trained workers available to respond to oil spills round the clock, and thousands more that they
can mobilize on short notice for shoreline cleanups. They've stockpiled the equipment needed
to contain offshore leaks, such as oil pumps, dispersants and skimmers. Their offshore drilling rigs use preventive
mechanisms such as gas detectors and well pressure alarms. They have vessels dedicated to oil spill control and
firefighting, in addition to support boats and barges. In an effort to coordinate their responses to spills, they created ten
environmental protection centers throughout Brazil that can act jointly or individually
depending on the emergency. They also conducted 18 regional drills in 2011 with the Brazilian Navy,
the Civil Defense, firefighters, the military police, environmental organizations, and local governmental and community entities.
Brazil is vigilant about drilling safety views tough rules and enforcement as
key to deterring misconduct

Pearson, 11- Correspondent with the Financial Times, educated at Cambridge (Samantha,
Brazil acts fast to clear up oil spills, Financial Times, December 5, 2011,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dabd7c7a-1e6f-11e1-bae4-
00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Xuq6J6wR)//TWR
It was about a month ago when Chevron workers first noticed small bubbles of oil emerging
through cracks in the seabed near one of their wells, 230 miles off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.
Over the next four days, those bubbles spewed more than 2,000 barrels of oil into the
Atlantic, leading to a temporary ban of the US company, a police investigation, millions of
dollars in fines, the shutdown of another of its wells and now threats of regulatory change in
one of the worlds most promising oil industries. Speaking to the Financial Times, Carlos Minc,
Rios environment secretary and the countrys former environment minister, says he is now
pushing for tougher rules for companies looking to profit from Brazils oil boom. We may be a
tropical country but were not a banana republic, he says. Everyone wants to come to
Brazil and if were not strict with *Chevron+, this place is going to turn into a pool of oil. The
spill in Rios oil-rich Campos basin which Chevron says occurred when workers encountered
unexpected pressure drilling at the Frade project has since been plugged and was relatively
small at 2,400 barrels, according to the companys estimates. At the worst phase of the Gulf of
Mexicos three-month-long spill last year, for example, more than 60,000 barrels of oil gushed
from BPs ruptured well per day. Nobody got hurt, and as far as we know no oil ever reached
the beaches of Brazil, and no environmental impact is visible, says Ali Moshiri, Chevrons
head of Latin America and Africa exploration and production. However, the incident has come
at a particularly sensitive moment for Brazil, as politicians quarrel over how best to exploit
Rios newly discovered pre-salt reserves, estimated to contain at least 50bn barrels of oil.
Those reserves are enough to catapult Brazil on to the list of the worlds top producers, but
the process of extracting the oil, which is buried in the seabed beneath a 2km deep layer of
salt, carries huge environmental and financial risks. If we let Chevron make an error, there
will be a thousand more errors during pre-salt, says Mr Minc. We need to be hard now,
especially on big companies such as Chevron, which has all the resources to do things the right
way, but got it wrong, Last week ANP, Brazils oil and gas regulator, put further pressure on
the company by shutting down another well at its Frade project after a safety audit found
unreported hydrogen sulphide. The week before, ANP already said it would ban Chevron,
which ranks as the countrys third-largest oil producer, from drilling wells in the countrys
waters until the causes of the incident had been further clarified. Ibama, Brazils
environmental regulator, imposed the maximum fine it could on Chevron of R$50m ($28m),
and Mr Minc says the company can expect at least another R$200m in fines from regulators
and the state government. Meanwhile, the federal police have launched their own
investigation, which could even lead to the imprisonment of Chevron workers for
environmental crimes. We are tremendously surprised by the reaction of all the authorities,
says Mr Moshiri. We have been constantly in touch with ANP and whats more, *the leak+
happened at a development well which they had reviewed. Mr Minc has also pushed
regulators to ban Transocean, Chevrons drilling partner on the project, which also operated
the drill in the Gulf of Mexico spill. Transocean responded by saying it would fully co-operate
with the authorities. However, Mr Minc warns the industry of even stricter regulations, calling
for the maximum fines to be doubled. Brazils environmental laws established the maximum
penalties for pollution in 1998, but years of inflation since then have diminished their real
impact, he says. We also want to make companies present more preparatory studies to
prove they are capable of dealing with potential disasters such as these, Mr Minc says,
adding that the new rules will apply to national as well as foreign companies.

Brazil has a zero tolerance approach for spills economic stake are high
politicians futures are tied to oil success
Lyons and Gilbert, 11Correspondents of the Wall Street Journal[Chevron Raps Brazil's
Spill Response
Oil Giant Calls Drilling Ban, Investigation an Overreaction to Offshore Leak,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577070563261988108.html]//MM

Mr. Moshiri may have to get used to it, industry experts say. Brazil's response reflects a trend toward stiffer
regulation and zero tolerance for even comparatively moderate accidents in the wake of BP PLC's 4.9 million
barrel spill in the Gulf of Mexico last year. By contrast, Chevron's early November leak released 2,400 barrels. The
BP spill "has changed people's view of everything we do," said Fadel Gheit, the senior oil-and-
gas analyst at investment bank Oppenheimer & Co. "[Regulators] cannot afford to allow any
slips, no matter how small." The stakes couldn't be higher in Brazil, where the fortunes of the
governing Workers Party are increasingly linked to Brazil's success in deep water. In 2006, Brazil
discovered massive, but extremely deep, oil deposits off Rio de Janeiro. Its leaders promised nothing less than to use oil to eradicate
poverty and lift Brazil into the first world. The plan is for state-controlled Petroleo Brasileiro SA, PBR -4.14% or Petrobras, to invest
more than $200 billion to help double the country's oil output. Big, foreign oil firms are already becoming secondary players along
the way. In 2009, Brazil tightened its grip on the industry by unveiling rules that required
Petrobras to get the dominant role in new exploration, guaranteeing it a big stake in any field.
Previously, it was treated as any other company bidding for exploration rights. Now, authorities are sending the firms
a strong signal that the margin for error is slim. Shortly after the leak was discovered on Nov. 9, the powerful Rio
de Janeiro state environment minister, Carlos Minc, suggested Chevron may be banned from the country. The Federal Police
launched a criminal investigation; oil regulators called Chevron "negligent" and suspended all Chevron drilling.
CASE

No more drilling in Cuba for 15-20 years expert says
Reuters, 12 (Drilling rig leaves Cuba, taking oil hopes with it, Nov 14,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/14/cuba-oil-rig-idUSL1E8MEHET20121114)
HAVANA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The Scarabeo 9, a Chinese-built offshore drilling rig that Cuba hoped would open a new era
of oil production, sailed away from the island on Wednesday, taking with it the communist country's near-term
dreams of energy independence. The massive, multi-colored rig, owned by Italian oil services company Saipem,
could be seen from Havana heading east through the blue waters of the Florida Straits en route, industry sources said, to West
Africa. It may be years before Cuba sees another rig like it. The Scarabeo 9, designed to operate in water up 12,000 feet
deep (3,650 meters), was used to drill three wells, all in more than a mile (1.6 km) of water off Cuba's north and
west coasts - and all unsuccessful. Cuba had hoped to tap into deepwater offshore fields it says may hold 20 billion
barrels of oil and end its dependence on socialist ally Venezuela, which ships the Caribbean island 115,000 barrels of petroleum
a day in an oil-for-services deal. A consortium led by Spanish oil giant Repsol, which contracted the Scarabeo 9 from Saipem,
hit the first dry hole last spring. That was followed by unsuccessful wells by Malaysia's Petronas in
partnership with Russia's Gazprom Neft, and by Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA. Little is known about the PDVSA
well, but Repsol and Petronas both encountered very hard rock that slowed drilling and, in Petronas'
case, made it impossible to produce hydrocarbons that were found. The Malaysian firm is continuing to do
three-dimensional seismic work searching for reservoirs of oil, but Repsol is leaving the island after 12 years. Using a different
rig, it drilled Cuba's first offshore well in 2004, where it said it found oil, but the find was not "commercial." NO IMMINENT
DRILLING PLANS Other companies including Angola's Sonangol, India's ONGC and Petrovietnam hold offshore
exploration leases in Cuba, but none are known to have any imminent drilling plans. Jorge Pinon,
a Cuba oil expert at the University of Texas in Austin, said it could be a decade or more before anyone
takes another chance on Cuba's deepwater fields. "This deal is done. It's going to take a long time before the next
one," he said. "You could even be looking at 15 to 20 years if you put it all together.
Squo Solves Inspections
Status quo solves spills U.S. drill inspections and safety discussions with Cuba
Wall Street Journal, 12 (Cuba - Repsol's Cuba drilling rig complies with safety
standards, 1/10, http://www.bpcplc.com/media-centre/non-company-press-
releases/cuba-repsol%27s-cuba-drilling-rig-complies-with-safety-
standards.aspx)
U.S. officials said Monday a rig operated by Spain's Repsol YPF that is expected to drill offshore Cuba
in the coming months complies with international and U.S. safety standards . 'U.S. personnel found
the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards by which Repsol has
pledged to abide,' the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said in the press release. The agency, however, noted that
the vessel review 'does not confer any form of certification or endorsement under U.S. or international law' and that the U.S. has no
legal or regulatory authority over the rig. The vessel, named Scarabeo 9, was inspected off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago and it
will begin drilling a deep-water oil well later this year about 100 kms off the Florida Keys. Repsol, which does business in
the U.S., had agreed to let U.S. federal regulators inspect the rig before it enters Cuban waters. The
rig's review was aimed at minimizing the possibility of a major oil spill, which would hurt U.S.
economic and environmental interests, the regulatory agency said. While aboard the Scarabeo 9, U.S. officials reviewed
vessel construction, drilling equipment, and safety systems--including lifesaving and firefighting equipment,
emergency generators, dynamic positioning systems, machinery spaces, and the blowout preventer, according to agency. In
anticipation of increased drilling activities in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. is in discussions with the
Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica and Mexico on a broad range of issues, including drilling safety, ocean modeling,
and oil spill preparedness and response, in order to reduce the impact of a major pollution incident, the agency said.

Status quo solves inspection ensures compliance with U.S. standards
Geman, 12 (Ben, Interior: Cuba-bound drilling rig generally meets US standards, 1/9,
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/203161-interior-cuba-bound-drilling-rig-generally-
meets-us-standards)
The deepwater drilling rig that Spanish oil giant Repsol will use for planned oil exploration off
Cubas coast is getting a clean bill of health from U.S. officials. The United States has no regulatory
authority over the drilling, but an Interior Department and Coast Guard team was invited to inspect the
Scarabeo 9 rig by Repsol, a check-up that comes as planned drilling off Cubas coast draws criticism from several U.S. lawmakers.
The review compared the vessel with applicable international safety and security standards
as well as U.S. standards for drilling units operating in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf. U.S. personnel
found the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards by which
Repsol has pledged to abide, the U.S. agencies said in a joint statement Monday upon completion of the review. The U.S. team
reviewed drilling equipment, safety systems such as firefighting equipment and the units blowout preventer and other aspects of
the rig. A number of U.S. lawmakers critical of the Cuban government have criticized Repsols planned project, noting it will bring
revenues to the Cuban regime and that a spill could threaten nearby U.S. shores. More on that here, here and here. The review
is consistent with U.S. efforts to minimize the possibility of a major oil spill, which would hurt
U.S. economic and environmental interests, Interior and the Coast Guard said of the inspection, which occurred off the
coast of Trinidad and Tobago.


Status quo solves spills Cuba has agreed to ensure safety measures meet U.S.
standards
Padgett, 12 (Tim, The Oil Off Cuba: Washington and Havana Dance at Arms Length Over Spill
Prevention, 1/27, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105598,00.html)
On Christmas Eve, a massive, Chinese-made maritime oil rig, the Scarabeo 9, arrived at Trinidad and
Tobago for inspection. The Spanish oil company Repsol YPF, which keeps regional headquarters in Trinidad,
ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep-ocean drilling off Cuba whose communist government
believes as much as 20 billion barrels of crude may lie near the island's northwest coast. But it wasn't Cuban authorities
who came aboard the Scarabeo 9 to give it the once-over : officials from the U.S. Coast Guard
and Interior Department did, even though the rig won't be operating in U.S. waters. On any
other occasion that might have raised the ire of the Cubans, who consider Washington their imperialista enemy. But the U.S.
examination of the Scarabeo 9, which Repsol agreed to and Cuba abided, was part of an unusual
choreography of cooperation between the two countries. Their otherwise bitter cold-war feud (they haven't
had diplomatic relations since 1961) is best known for a 50-year-long trade embargo and history's scariest nuclear standoff. Now,
Cuba's commitment to offshore oil exploration drilling may start this weekend raises a specter that haunts both nations: an oil
spill in the Florida Straits like the BP calamity that tarred the nearby Gulf of Mexico two years ago and left $40 billion in U.S.
damages. The Straits, an equally vital body of water that's home to some of the world's most precious coral reefs, separates Havana
and Key West, Florida, by a mere 90 miles. As a result, the U.S. has tacitly loosened its embargo against Cuba to give firms like Repsol
easier access to the U.S. equipment they need to help avoid or contain possible spills. "Preventing drilling off Cuba better protects
our interests than preparing for [a disaster] does," U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida tells TIME, noting the U.S. would prefer to stop
the Cuban drilling but can't. "But the two are not mutually exclusive, and that's why we should aim to do both." Cuba
meanwhile has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U.S. standards (not that
U.S. standards proved all that golden during the 2010 BP disaster) and is letting unofficial U.S. delegations in to
discuss the precautions being taken by Havana and the international oil companies it is contracting. No Cuban
official would discuss the matter, but Dan Whittle, senior attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund in New York, who was part
of one recent delegation, says the Cubans "seem very motivated to do the right thing."

Turn: Drilling fractures ocean floor leads to massive and permanent oil leak
Pravica 12Professor of Physics and Astronomy @ University of Nevada, Las Vegas *Michael Pravica, Letters: Science, not
profit, must lead deep water drilling, USA Today, Updated 4/24/2012 8:43 PM , pg. http://tinyurl.com/9g8x28q King TS)
There are a few critical points not mentioned in the USA TODAY editorial on the BP oil spill that should have been addressed
("Editorial: 2 years after BP spill, lower risks"). First of all, deep water drilling represents a "brave new world"
of oil exploration and novel technology as humans probe depths of water, oil and rock that sustain
thousands of atmospheres of pressure. At these levels, the technology used to drill and extract oil can easily fail
as we approach the yield strengths of many of the confining materials subjected to extreme
conditions. There is also a high chance of significant fracture of the ocean/sea floor in drilling
and hole erosion from gushing, hot and high pressure oil (along with particulates and other
mineral-rich fluids) that could make repair nearly impossible and could permanently poison
our waters.
The greatest lesson from the BP oil spill is that politicians and businessmen cannot solve
problems created by our advanced technology. Only scientists and engineers can. We must listen to them and adopt
a more rational approach to drilling that places safety above profit.

dispersants make the oil 52 times more toxic new study shows they kill plankton
and destroy the food chain
Peixe, 5/5 (Joao,Dispersants make Oil Spills 52 Times More Toxic, OilPrice.com, 2013,
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dispersants-Make-Oil-Spills-52-Times-
more-Toxic.html)// IK
A new study, published in the journal Environmental Pollution, has found that the dispersants
used to clean up oil spills actually make the entire situation much worse and cause far more
damage to the environment than the crude oil itself. As part of the clean up proceedings for the 2010 Deepwater
Horizon oil spill more than 2 million gallons of the oil dispersants Corexit 9527A and 9500A were dumped into the Gulf of Mexico in
order to break the oil up into tiny droplets; a move that is intended to speed up the degradation of the oil and prevent it from
reaching shore. The study has worryingly discovered that when Corexit is mixed with oil it becomes
up to 52 times more toxic than the original oil on its own. Terry Snell, a biologist at Georgia Tech and co-author
of the study, said that there is a synergistic interaction between crude oil and the dispersant that
makes it more toxic. The dispersant works in as much as it makes the oil effectively disappear, but the microscopic
particles that are left are more toxic to the planktonic food chain. Snell explained that the
levels in the Gulf were toxic, and seriously toxic. That probably put a big dent in the planktonic
food web for some extended period of time, but nobody really made the measurements to
figure out the impact. Plankton is the base food source of the ocean, the bottom of the food
chain. If the population of plankton in the gulf is killed off enough then the population of larger
animals will be effected, all the way up to whales. The dispersants put the oil out of site. Out of sight,
out of mind. The public forgot about the oil once they could no longer see it; but it doesnt
mean that it is gone, that the ocean is clean and safe for life.

Alt causes to reef destruction hurricanes are the main cause of damage
Bisch, 10 doctorate in philosophy, did research and development on
coral reefs for his thesis ( B.G., 3/1, http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/ theses/
available/etd-06252010-
114813/unrestricted/Bischof_B_Dissertation_2010.pdf )//AK

In general, it is believed or often said that hurricanes are the main causes of reef destruction, even as
early as the 1950s (Goreau 1959). Although several studies since have focused on the patterns of
destruction and recovery from hurricanes, the overall message is that hurricanes can generate a severe
environmental crisis across a large geographic area from which reefs can recover,
although most often do not (Fig.1.1) (Connell 1997; Rogers 1993). And, regardless of what
happens, there is little that can be done to shield them from the effects, even if
circumstances are predictable. There are abundant rubble storm layers in just about any paleo-reef, which
provide geologic evidence that storms have been inuencing coral growth patterns and species dominance for hundreds of
millions of years. The question for many is not whether the reef area recovers or returns, but rather what exactly will be
growing in these areas. Reef scientists are generally concerned that more frequent or more destructive storms, as is
predicted with anthropogenic climate change discourses, could reduce the biodiversity on reefs to mainly stony mounded
species, and that only if we are lucky, will not result in Scleractinians, i.e. stony reef-building corals, becoming increasingly
scarce, and reefs ecosystems becoming dominated by soft corals and leafy algae (Blanchon et al 1997; Dollar and Tribble
1993; Gardner et al 2005). This issue therefore is also mostly driven by some deep desire to retain the coral reefs that
represent ideal nature and the pristine and perfect rainforests of the sea that exist in remote reefs not drastically
inuenced by human stressors.

Alt cause to reef destruction- warming destroys reefs through ocean
acidification and rising sea levels
Bisch, 10 doctorate in philosophy, did research and development on
coral reefs for his thesis ( B.G., 3/1, http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/ theses/
available/etd-06252010-
114813/unrestricted/Bischof_B_Dissertation_2010.pdf )//AK


Global changes in atmospheric chemistry are also revealing themselves on reef systems,
an issue that is gaining research momentum as its connections to climate change are
made increasingly clear. It is also a unifying factor and provides a common ground of conservation concerns in
the localized diversity of management concerns. Oceans are warming and oceans are acidifying.
Despite the political posturing and blame-games currently playing out in politics regarding global climate change,
abundant evidence exists that supports both of those claims; however, how these physical changes affect the
multidimensional and highly connected ecological and bio-geochemical feedback cycles inherent in the oceans is a matter
of great ecological debate among reef scientists (Marubini et al 2008), and considered crucial to understand in contexts of
developing effective conservation strategies (Knowlton 2001). Some scientists, often those with strong geological
backgrounds, believe that the driver of decline for reefs is not CO2 in the atmosphere, given that during the Cretaceous
Period in Earths history, reefs were at their most prolic in the geologic record, when levels were roughly seven times
greater (Shinn 2010); while others, mostly biologists, maintain that CO2 (and its effects) will be the ultimate ecological
assault on these systems (Buddemeir et al 2004; Hughes et al 2003). Regardless of the decision regarding the effects of
CO2, some problems associated with warming have emerged as having serious political connections and grave
implications regarding cultural and regional survival. The absorption of CO2 and rising temperatures
have resulted in measured sea-level rise, and many nations, particularly the low-lying
atoll countries, are expected to literally vanish as sea-levels inch up, with some already forced to
leave their homes as salt-water leeches up through the already poor soils, destroying crops and water resources in the
lowest-lying atolls of Kiribati. The inability of coral to keep up with rising sea-levels has
endangered not only Kiribati, but also Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives
(Yamamoto and Esteban 2010).

No commercially viable oil recent failures prove
Offshore Magazine, 12 (Another Cuban oil well turns up dry, 11/25, http://www.offshore-
mag.com/articles/2012/11/another-cuban-oil.html)
The Venezuelan government-owned company PDVSA reported that it found no commercially
viable oil in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, making their exploration well the third unsuccessful
search for oil in recent months, reported the Havana Times. Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and CUPET closed their
exploratory well last week in Cabo de San Antonio, off the far western end of the island, having found no potential for commercial
exploitation, the Cuban state-run enterprise Cubapetroleo (CUPET) explained. Nevertheless, PDVSA will continue to operate in
Cuba, according to a statement by the company. The technical expertise and valuable geological information obtained have
contributed to reaffirming PDVSAs decision to continue its participation in the exploration campaign in Cuban waters, read the
statement. This finding is another setback for the Cuban government. The present effort was the
third failed attempt to find oil in the Cuban waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In late May, the Spanish
energy company Repsol announced it was shutting down its oil exploration effort off the coast
of Cuba after failing to find oil on its first bore.




RELATIONS
Single instances of action do not change perceptions of the United States.
Fettweis, 8 Professor of Political Science at Tulane University (Christopher, Credibility and the
War on Terror, Political Science Quarterly, Winter)
Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in which high credibility
helped the United States achieve its goals. The shortterm aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis,
for example, did not include a string of Soviet reversals, or the kind of benign bandwagoning with the West that
deterrence theorists would have expected. In fact, the perceived reversal in Cuba seemed to harden Soviet resolve. As the crisis was
drawing to a close, Soviet diplomat Vasily Kuznetsov angrily told his counterpart, "You Americans will never be able to do this to us
again."37 Kissinger commented in his memoirs that "the Soviet Union thereupon launched itself on a determined, systematic, and
long-term program of expanding all categories of its military power .... The 1962 Cuban crisis was thus a historic turning point-but
not for the reason some Americans complacently supposed."38 The reassertion of the credibility of the United States, which was
done at the brink of nuclear war, had few long-lasting benefits. The Soviets seemed to learn the wrong lesson. There is
actually scant evidence that other states ever learn the right lessons. Cold War history
contains little reason to believe that the credibility of the superpowers had very much effect
on their ability to influence others. Over the last decade, a series of major scholarly studies have cast
further doubt upon the fundamental assumption of interdependence across foreign policy
actions. Employing methods borrowed from social psychology rather than the economics-based models commonly employed by
deterrence theorists, Jonathan Mercer argued that threats are far more independent than is commonly
believed and, therefore, that reputations are not likely to be formed on the basis of individual
actions.39 While policymakers may feel that their decisions send messages about their basic dispositions to others, most of the
evidence from social psychology suggests otherwise. Groups tend to interpret the actions of their rivals as
situational, dependent upon the constraints of place and time. Therefore, they are not likely to
form lasting impressions of irresolution from single, independent events. Mercer argued that the
interdependence assumption had been accepted on faith, and rarely put to a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably
failed.40
Alt C - Embargo
Only lifting the embargo normalizes relations
CCS, 9 (Center for Cuban Studies, The Latest In U.S. and Cuba Relations, 5/25,
http://www.cubaupdate.org/cuba-update/us-cuba/117-the-latest-in-us-and-cuba-relations)
Shortly before the Organization of American States began its summit on the island of Trinidad this past April, the media reported that
the Obama administration had undertaken a significant policy shift in regards to relations with
Cuba. It is extremely important , however, to recognize that these changes do not mark an end to
the nearly fifty year long trade embargo, nor do they signify and end to the travel restrictions
that prevent most U.S. citizens from traveling to Cuba legally. What this change essentially does is repeal the most
extreme measures that tightened the embargo under the administration of George W. Bush, which limited the amount of remittances that Cubans
living in the United States could send to the island, and restricted family visits to once every three years. While this change in policy is
certainly a welcome step in the right direction, the truly necessary change would be a move
to end the embargo along with travel restrictions for all U.S. citizens, and a normalization of
relations between the two countries. The world communitys desire for an end to the U.S. imposed trade embargo has been manifested in the
form of several successive United Nations resolutions, each of them overwhelmingly in favor of the U.S. changing its policy toward Cuba. Opinion within
the United States has shifted as well. Recently, a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll revealed that two thirds of U.S. citizens favor ending the travel ban,
and that three quarters favor normalized relations between Cuba and the United States. Many members of Congress have also changed their positions.
On March 31, 2009, a bi-partisan group of senators introduced a bill, which, if passed, will end the travel ban, allowing for all U.S. citizens to visit the
island. Indiana senator Richard Lugar, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a sponsor of the bill, has stated that the
unilateral embargo on Cuba has failed to achieve its stated purpose of bringing democracy to the Cuban people. U.S. Representative Barbara Lee (D-
California), who recently met with both Ral and Fidel Castro while travelling to Cuba with the Congressional Black Caucus, noted that we have to
remember that every country in Latin America has normal relations with Cuba; were the country which is isolated. Despite these positive
recent developments, however, there is still resistance to changing Cuba policy within the U.S. government.
The opposition from right wing Cuban-American members of congress is predictable, but it is also important to remember that now Vice President Joe
Biden voted for the Helms-Burton Act in 1996, and that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated that she imposes lifting the embargo. Hopefully
recent developments will help these officials to reverse their previous positions.

No drilling - Foreign companies have given up looking for Cuban
oil
Gibson, 4/14- Washington Bureau Writer (William, 2013, http://articles.sun-
sentinel.com/2013-04-14/news/fl-cuban-oil-drilling-retreat-20130414_1_jorge-pi-
north-coast-cuban-officials) //AK
After spending nearly $700 million during a decade, energy companies from around the
world have all but abandoned their search for oil in deep waters off the north coast of
Cuba near Florida, a blow to the Castro regime but a relief to environmentalists worried
about a major oil spill. Decisions by Spain-based Repsol and other companies to drill elsewhere greatly
reduce the chances that a giant slick along the Cuban coast would ride ocean currents to
South Florida, threatening its beaches, inlets, mangroves, reefs and multibillion-dollar
tourism industry.
Squo Solves Inspections
Status quo solves spills U.S. drill inspections and safety discussions with Cuba
Wall Street Journal, 12 (Cuba - Repsol's Cuba drilling rig complies with safety
standards, 1/10, http://www.bpcplc.com/media-centre/non-company-press-
releases/cuba-repsol%27s-cuba-drilling-rig-complies-with-safety-
standards.aspx)
U.S. officials said Monday a rig operated by Spain's Repsol YPF that is expected to drill offshore Cuba
in the coming months complies with international and U.S. safety standards . 'U.S. personnel found
the vessel to generally comply with existing international and U.S. standards by which Repsol has
pledged to abide,' the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said in the press release. The agency, however, noted that
the vessel review 'does not confer any form of certification or endorsement under U.S. or international law' and that the U.S. has no
legal or regulatory authority over the rig. The vessel, named Scarabeo 9, was inspected off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago and it
will begin drilling a deep-water oil well later this year about 100 kms off the Florida Keys. Repsol, which does business in
the U.S., had agreed to let U.S. federal regulators inspect the rig before it enters Cuban waters. The
rig's review was aimed at minimizing the possibility of a major oil spill, which would hurt U.S.
economic and environmental interests, the regulatory agency said. While aboard the Scarabeo 9, U.S. officials reviewed
vessel construction, drilling equipment, and safety systems--including lifesaving and firefighting equipment,
emergency generators, dynamic positioning systems, machinery spaces, and the blowout preventer, according to agency. In
anticipation of increased drilling activities in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. is in discussions with the
Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica and Mexico on a broad range of issues, including drilling safety, ocean modeling,
and oil spill preparedness and response, in order to reduce the impact of a major pollution incident, the agency said.
Squo solves cooperation comprehensive disaster response is already in place
Sun Sentinel, 12 (New oil spill plan needed April 22, http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/2012-
04-22/news/fl-cuba-oil-editorial-dl-20120422_1_deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-oil-spill)//IK
The first line of defense begins with a proactive policy of environmental and safety cooperation between the United States,
Cuba and the foreign companies operating the platform. Exploratory drilling in an area that is said to contain over 5 billion
barrels of oil and 8.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas has already begun, and time is of the essence since chances for major
mishaps in deepwater operations usually occur during exploratory drilling. What's problematic for many environmentalists and
U.S. policymakers is that the sites of these new wells are less than 60 miles from Key West. Their being so close to Gulf Stream
means an oil rig mishap could produce an ecological disaster along hundreds of miles of Florida coastline. The good news
is there has been progress in forging a working relationship, and a plan of action, to
bolster environmental cooperation. That's a major accomplishment given the past bitter political history and
current friction between the United States and Cuba. In the past, Washington and Havana have found ways
to cooperate on immigration issues and curbing drug trafficking. Protecting the Atlantic
Ocean, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico from a blowout is no less important. The
initial oil-spill containment plan unveiled recently by the U.S. Coast Guard emphasizes shielding
inlets and intracoastal waterways to protect more vulnerable parts of South Florida's coastlines over the region's
beaches. That approach won't sit well with local businesses and interest groups that rely on the beaches to fuel the region's
vibrant tourism industry. The dismay among tourist officials is understandable, but putting priorities on Florida's most sensitive
environs is necessary. The region's bays, lagoons and mangrove forests are far more susceptible to the toxic impact of an oil
spill. Those ecological nooks and crannies, and spawning zones, would be more difficult to clean than a beach. In an ideal
world, the federal government would muster all the resources at its command to protect all of
South Florida's rich and diverse environment from a massive spill. The real world is a very different place.
Credit the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard for their work with the Cuban
government on a comprehensive disaster response system that hopefully will never have to be use


Cooperation increasing- contingency plans and agreements on technology use
Allen, 12- NPR's Miami correspondent, Greg Allen reports on the diverse issues and
developments tied to the Southeast (Greg, NPR, U.S. Watches Closely As Oil Drilling Begins Off
Cuba, 2/13/12, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/13/146635957/u-s-watches-closely-as-oil-drilling-
begins-off-cuba)//AK

But there are people working on developing contingency plans. At the Clean
Caribbean and Americas cooperative in Fort Lauderdale, a warehouse is full of oil
skimmers, floating boom and tanks of chemical dispersant. The organization is
funded by oil companies with one mission: to respond to big oil spills.
Company personnel are now working with Cuban officials on the international response
to a spill in Cuban waters. Clean Caribbean and Americas technical adviser Mike Gass
says that in a meeting recently in Havana, Cuban authorities agreed to cooperate on
customs, immigration and air space control. And Cuba has already approved some
cleanup procedures, such as burning large patches of oil. Gass says Cuba has also agreed,
if there's a spill, to use chemical dispersant. "They have their own agriculture spray
aircraft that would be their first line of defense to apply these things," he says. Gass says
Cuban officials are offering good cooperation so far. "People are talking," he says,
"people are listening, people are motivated. "There is a chance that after drilling, energy
companies may not find enough oil off of Cuba to merit further exploration. Pinon, the
former oil company executive, says the rig off of Cuba is scheduled to drill three wells at a cost of $100
million each. The fact that international oil companies are investing $300 million shows the industry's confidence that its
next big oil field may be just 50 miles off the coast of Florida.
Squo solves licensing Coast Guard and private response teams have licenses
Kay 12- Associated Press writer (The Associated Press, Cuba factors into U.S. oil spill
plan, 3/22/12,http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/
2012/03/cuba_factors _into_us_oil_spill.html)//AK

Though a 50-year-old embargo bars most American companies from conducting
business with Cuba and limits communication between the two governments, t he Coast
Guard and private response teams have licenses from the U.S. government to work with
Cuba and its partners if a disaster arises. The U.S. and Cuba have joined Mexico, the
Bahamas and Jamaica since November in multilateral discussions about
how the countries would notify each other about offshore drilling problems,
said Capt. John Slaughter, chief of planning, readiness, and response for the 7th District.
He said channels do exist for U.S. and Cuban officials to communicate about
spills, including the Caribbean Island Oil Pollution Response and
Cooperation Plan. That's a nonbinding agreement, though, so the Coast Guard has
begun training crews already monitoring the Cuban coastline for drug and migrant
smuggling to keep an eye out for problems on the Repsol rig. William Reilly, co-
chairman of the national commission on the Deepwater Horizon spill and head of the
EPA during President George H.W. Bush, said the Coast Guard generated goodwill in
Cuba by notifying its government of potential risks to the island during the 2010 spill. It
would be hard for the Cuban government to keep any spill secret if Repsol and other
private companies were responding, Slaughter said.
Turn: Drilling fractures ocean floor leads to massive and permanent oil leak
Pravica 12Professor of Physics and Astronomy @ University of Nevada, Las Vegas *Michael Pravica, Letters: Science, not
profit, must lead deep water drilling, USA Today, Updated 4/24/2012 8:43 PM , pg. http://tinyurl.com/9g8x28q King TS)
There are a few critical points not mentioned in the USA TODAY editorial on the BP oil spill that should have been addressed
("Editorial: 2 years after BP spill, lower risks"). First of all, deep water drilling represents a "brave new world"
of oil exploration and novel technology as humans probe depths of water, oil and rock that sustain
thousands of atmospheres of pressure. At these levels, the technology used to drill and extract oil can easily fail
as we approach the yield strengths of many of the confining materials subjected to extreme
conditions. There is also a high chance of significant fracture of the ocean/sea floor in drilling
and hole erosion from gushing, hot and high pressure oil (along with particulates and other
mineral-rich fluids) that could make repair nearly impossible and could permanently poison
our waters.
The greatest lesson from the BP oil spill is that politicians and businessmen cannot solve
problems created by our advanced technology. Only scientists and engineers can. We must listen to them and adopt
a more rational approach to drilling that places safety above profit.

Turn: Loss of drilling prospects causes Cuba to accelerate economic opening
Krauss and Cave, 12 Clifford, National Business Correspondent, and Damien, Foreign
Correspondent (Cubas Prospects for an Oil-Fueled Economic Jolt Falter With Departure of
Rig, New York Times, November 9, 2012, Cubas Prospects for an Oil-Fueled Economic
Jolt Falter With Departure of Rig)//TWR

Cubas hopes of reviving its economy with an oil boom have produced little more than three
dry holes, persuading foreign oil companies to remove the one deepwater rig able to work
in Cuban waters so it could be used for more lucrative prospects elsewhere. The rig, which was
built in China to get around the United States trade embargo, is expected to depart in the next few weeks. With no other
rigs available for deepwater exploration, that means Cuba must now postpone what had become an
abiding dream: a windfall that would save Cubas economy and lead to a uniquely Cuban utopia where the islands socialist
system was paid for by oil sales to its capitalist neighbors. The Cuban oil dream is over and done with, at
least for the next five years, said Jorge Pion, a former BP and Amoco executive who fled Cuba as a child but
continues to brief foreign oil companies on Cuban oil prospects. The companies have better prospects by going to Brazil,
Angola and the U.S. Gulf. The lack of a quick find comes at a difficult time for Cuba. The effects of Hurricane Sandy, which
destroyed more than 100,000 homes in eastern Cuba, are weighing down an economy that remains moribund despite two
years of efforts by the Cuban government to cut state payrolls and cautiously encourage free enterprise on a small scale. Cuba
had hoped to become energy independent, after relying first on Russia and now on Venezuela for most of its oil. But with its
drilling prospects dimming, experts say, Cuban officials may be pushed to accelerate the
process of economic opening. At the very least, it may embolden members of the
bureaucracy looking for broader or faster changes in the economy. This could represent a
crucial setback for the Cuban regime, said Blake Clayton, an energy fellow at the Council on
Foreign Relations. In the meantime, the government has mostly tried to put a positive spin
on the disappointing drilling results and the decision of the rig operator to lease in other
waters. Granma, the Communist Party newspaper, reported last week that while
Venezuelas state oil firm had plugged its hole because it did not offer possibilities of
commercial exploitation, the drilling had obtained valuable geological information. The
Venezuelan firm was the last of three foreign oil companies to use the rig, after the Spanish
company Repsol and the Malaysian company Petronas. The government said more
exploration could be expected

Oil Inaccessible


No commercially viable oil recent failures prove
Offshore Magazine, 12 (Another Cuban oil well turns up dry, 11/25, http://www.offshore-
mag.com/articles/2012/11/another-cuban-oil.html)
The Venezuelan government-owned company PDVSA reported that it found no commercially
viable oil in Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, making their exploration well the third unsuccessful
search for oil in recent months, reported the Havana Times. Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and CUPET closed their
exploratory well last week in Cabo de San Antonio, off the far western end of the island, having found no potential for commercial
exploitation, the Cuban state-run enterprise Cubapetroleo (CUPET) explained. Nevertheless, PDVSA will continue to operate in
Cuba, according to a statement by the company. The technical expertise and valuable geological information obtained have
contributed to reaffirming PDVSAs decision to continue its participation in the exploration campaign in Cuban waters, read the
statement. This finding is another setback for the Cuban government. The present effort was the
third failed attempt to find oil in the Cuban waters of the Gulf of Mexico. In late May, the Spanish
energy company Repsol announced it was shutting down its oil exploration effort off the coast
of Cuba after failing to find oil on its first bore.

Cuban Economy Resilient
Cuban economy is remarkably resilient embargo, loss of Soviet aid proves
Third World Planet, 13 (The Cuban Economy,
http://www.thirdworldplanet.com/cuban-economy.php )//NS

The Cuban economy has been remarkably resilient over the years surviving a great many
difficulties. For many years the country relied on trade with the Soviet Union but when that
came to end they had to find different ways to keep their economy going. Despite an embargo
by the United States, Cuba has managed to keep its economy afloat. They are one of the few
communist countries remaining in the world and it seems unlikely that that is going to change
anytime soon
No Supply Cutoff
No supply cutoff President Maduro will continue Chavezs oil subsidies
Orsi, 4/5 Associated Press reporter (Peter, Cuba avoids oil cutoff for now as Chavez ally
narrowly wins Venezuela presidential election, 2013,
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Cuba+avoids+cutoff+Chavez+ally+narrowly+wins+Vene
zuela+presidential+election/8244434/story.html)
Cubans were relieved Monday by the announcement that the late leader Hugo Chavez's hand-picked
successor had been elected Venezuela's new president, apparently allowing their country to
dodge a threatened cutoff of billions of dollars in subsidized oil. Cuban President Raul Castro sent a
congratulatory message to Nicolas Maduro, who is seen as an ideological ally who will want to
continue the countries' special relationship as he serves out the remainder of Chavez's six-year term. "The main thing from
Cuba's point of view is that he's won , if it's ratified," said Paul Webster Hare, a lecturer in
international relations at Boston University and former British diplomatic envoy to both Venezuela and Cuba. "They will
probably be thinking that they now have perhaps a maximum of five years of Venezuelan subsidies left," Hare said, "because if the
trend continues moving against him, as I think is likely, this will be the last term even if they are able to continue all the subsidies for
that period. ... The clock's ticking for that relationship." Venezuela ships an estimated 92,000 barrels of oil per
day worth $3.2 billion a year to the island, providing for about half its consumption. Cuba accounts for about half that
figure through barter deals, sending legions of medics, sports trainers, political advisers and other specialists to the South
American nation. The remainder is covered by 25-year, 1 per cent interest loans. That amounts to an economic lifeline for the island
nation, which is in the middle of an attempt to boost its perennially sagging economy with a series of reforms. More than a dozen
other poor countries around Latin America and the Caribbean have also benefited greatly from Venezuela oil aid on generous terms.
Maduro's opponent, Henrique Capriles, had said on the campaign trail that as president he would ensure that "not another drop of
oil will go toward financing the government of the Castros." No surprise, then, that Raul Castro's government was among the first
to congratulate Maduro.

No LNG Terrorism
LNG systems have multiple layers of safeguarding exceptional record
Melhem et al 6 PhD, Professor of Structural Engineering
(Dr. G. A. Melhem, Dr. A. S. Kalelkar, Dr. S. Saraf , Managing LNG Risks: Separating the Facts
from the Myths, updated 2006,
http://archives1.iomosaic.com/whitepapers/Managing%20LNG%20Risks.pdf)

Historical review of LNG safety in the United States and worldwide
The LNG industry in the United States and worldwide enjoys an exceptional marine and land safety
record. In the past thirty years, Japan has received nearly all of its natural gas in the form of LNG
transported by ship. Once every 20 hours an LNG ship arrives at the busy Tokyo bay, unloads its
LNG cargo, and leaves safely. In the last three decades and with more than 40,000 voyages by sea worldwide, there has not been a
single reported LNG release from a ships cargo tank. LNG tankers have experienced groundings and collisions
during this period, but none has resulted in a major spill. This is partly due to the double-hulled
design of LNG tankers which offers significant protection to the double walled LNG containers. During the past sixty years
of LNG operations, not a single general public fatality has occurred anywhere in the world
because of LNG operations.
This exceptional safety record can be attributed to several key factors: (a) The LNG industry understands the physical and chemical hazard
characteristics3 of LNG and have used that knowledge to instill and maintain an excellent safety culture in LNG operations and to advance the
engineering of safety systems and standards4 for storage and transport of LNG, (b) The LNG industry is heavily regulated5 in the United States and
worldwide, and (c) The use of multiple layers of safeguarding (primary containment, secondary containment, instrumented
safety systems, operational systems, and safe separation distances) is common practice in LNG systems and operations.


CRITICAL CUBA 1NC

Framework

Policy Focus Key
Prioritizing critical theory over political action creates a vicious cycle of flawed
knowledge production that fails to solve real problems
Owen 2002 Reader on Political Theory at the University of Southampton
(David Owen, Re-Orienting International Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism, and Practical
Reasoning, Millenium Journal of International Studies, 2002, accessed through Sage Journals)
The first danger with the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise
issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and/or interpretive power as if the latter two
were merely a simple function of the former. But while the explanatory and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is not
wholly independent of its ontological and/or epistemological commitments (otherwise criticism of these features would not be a
criticism that had any value), it is by no means clear that it is, in contrast, wholly dependent on these philosophical commitments.
Thus, for example, one need not be sympathetic to rational choice theory to recognise that it can
provide powerful accounts of certain kinds of problems, such as the tragedy of the commons in which
dilemmas of collective action are foregrounded. It may, of course, be the case that the advocates of rational choice theory cannot
give a good account of why this type of theory is powerful in accounting for this class of problems (i.e., how it is that the relevant
actors come to exhibit features in these circumstances that approximate the assumptions of rational choice theory) and, if this is the
case, it is a philosophical weaknessbut this does not undermine the point that, for a certain class of problems, rational choice
theory may provide the best account available to us. In other words, while the critical judgement of theoretical
accounts in terms of their ontological and/or epistemological sophistication is one kind of critical judgement, it is
not the only or even necessarily the most important kind. The second danger run by the philosophical turn is
that because prioritisation of ontology and epistemology promotes theory-construction from
philosophical first principles, it cultivates a theory-driven rather than problem-driven
approach to IR. Paraphrasing Ian Shapiro, the point can be put like this: since it is the case that there is always a plurality of
possible true descriptions of a given action, event or phenomenon, the challenge is to decide which is the most apt in terms of
getting a perspicuous grip on the action, event or phenomenon in question given the purposes of the inquiry; yet, from this
standpoint, theory-driven work is part of a reductionist program in that it dictates always opting
for the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the preferred model or
theory. 5 The justification offered for this strategy rests on the mistaken belief that it is necessary for social science because
general explanations are required to characterise the classes of phenomena studied in similar terms. However, as Shapiro points
out, this is to misunderstand the enterprise of science since whether there are general explanations for classes of phenomena is a
question for social-scientific inquiry, not to be prejudged before conducting that inquiry. 6 Moreover, this strategy easily
slips into the promotion of the pursuit of generality over that of empirical validity. The third
danger is that the preceding two combine to encourage the formation of a particular image of disciplinary
debate in IRwhat might be called (only slightly tongue in cheek) the Highlander viewnamely, an image of warring
theoretical approaches with each, despite occasional temporary tactical alliances, dedicated to the strategic
achievement of sovereignty over the disciplinary field. It encourages this view because the turn to, and
prioritisation of, ontology and epistemology stimulates the idea that there can only be one
theoretical approach which gets things right, namely, the theoretical approach that gets its ontology and
epistemology right. This image feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious
circle arises. It should be noted that I am not claiming that such a vicious circle has been established in IR by virtue of the
philosophical turn, nor am I claiming that IR is alone in its current exposure to this threat; on the contrary, Shapiros remarks are
directed at (primarily North American) political science. I am simply concerned to point out that the philosophical turn in IR increases
its exposure to these dangers and, hence, its vulnerability to the kind of vicious circle that they can, collectively, generate.

Policy discussions are key it forces engagement with and resolution of
competing perspectives to improve social outcomes, however those outcomes
may be defined---and, it breaks out of traditional pedagogical frameworks by
positing students as agents of decision-making
Esberg & Sagan 12 *Jane Esberg is special assistant to the director at New York University's
Center on. International Cooperation. She was the winner of 2009 Firestone Medal, AND **Scott
Sagan is a professor of political science and director of Stanford's Center for International
Security and Cooperation NEGOTIATING NONPROLIFERATION: Scholarship, Pedagogy, and
Nuclear Weapons Policy, 2/17 The Nonproliferation Review, 19:1, 95-108
These government or quasi-government think tank simulations often provide very similar lessons
for high-level players as are learned by students in educational simulations. Government
participants learn about the importance of understanding foreign perspectives, the need to
practice internal coordination, and the necessity to compromise and coordinate with other
governments in negotiations and crises. During the Cold War, political scientist Robert Mandel noted
how crisis exercises and war games forced government officials to overcome bureaucratic
myopia, moving beyond their normal organizational roles and thinking more creatively
about how others might react in a crisis or conflict.6 The skills of imagination and the
subsequent ability to predict foreign interests and reactions remain critical for real-world
foreign policy makers. For example, simulations of the Iranian nuclear crisis*held in 2009
and 2010 at the Brookings Institutions Saban Center and at Harvard Universitys Belfer
Center, and involving former US senior officials and regional experts*highlighted the
dangers of misunderstanding foreign governments preferences and misinterpreting their
subsequent behavior. In both simulations, the primary criticism of the US negotiating team lay in a
failure to predict accurately how other states, both allies and adversaries, would behave in response
to US policy initiatives.7 By university age, students often have a pre-defined view of
international affairs, and the literature on simulations in education has long emphasized
how such exercises force students to challenge their assumptions about how other
governments behave and how their own government works.8 Since simulations became more
common as a teaching tool in the late 1950s, educational literature has expounded on their benefits,
from encouraging engagement by breaking from the typical lecture format, to improving
communication skills, to promoting teamwork.9 More broadly, simulations can deepen
understanding by asking students to link fact and theory, providing a context for facts
while bringing theory into the realm of practice.10 These exercises are particularly valuable
in teaching international affairs for many of the same reasons they are useful for policy
makers: they force participants to grapple with the issues arising from a world in flux.11
Simulations have been used successfully to teach students about such disparate topics as European
politics, the Kashmir crisis, and US response to the mass killings in Darfur.12 Role-playing exercises
certainly encourage students to learn political and technical facts* but they learn them in a
more active style. Rather than sitting in a classroom and merely receiving knowledge,
students actively research their governments positions and actively argue, brief, and
negotiate with others.13 Facts can change quickly; simulations teach students how to
contextualize and act on information.14

PTX (ONLY IF THEY SAY IT'S A USFG ACTION IN CX)
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)


Obamas PC and focus key to overcome GOP opposition
AFP 6-12 (Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdle
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-
landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)
Obama made an outspoken pitch for the bill on Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a
badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,
fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are
determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political
capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters. The
president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform -- who
argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currently written
and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's taking
border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives of
lawmakers who are opposed to the bill. "If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the best
America can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a
broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent
Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process. But
he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the effort and
jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.
Changing policy toward Cuba requires lots of PC
Williams 13 (A foreign correspondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reported
from more than 80 countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. A foreign
correspondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reported from more than 80
countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. May 03, 2013
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/03/world/la-fg-wn-cuba-us-terror-list-20130502)
Politicians who have pushed for a continued hard line against Cuba cheered their victory in
getting the Obama administration to keep Cuba on the list. U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a South Florida
Republican whose efforts to isolate and punish the Castro regime have been a central plank of her election strategy throughout her
24 years in Congress, hailed the State Department decision as reaffirming the threat that the Castro regime represents. Arash
Aramesh, a national security analyst at Stanford Law School, blamed the continued branding of Cuba as a
terrorism sponsor on politicians pandering for a certain political base. He also said President
Obama and Secretary of State John F. Kerry have failed to make a priority of removing the
impediment to better relations with Cuba. As much as Id like to see the Castro regime gone and an open and free
Cuba, it takes away from the State Departments credibility when they include countries on the list that arent even close to
threatening Americans, Aramesh said. Political considerations also factor into excluding countries from the state sponsor list, he
said, pointing to Pakistan as a prime example. Although Islamabad very clearly supports terrorist and insurgent organizations, he
said, the U.S. government has long refused to provoke its ally in the region with the official censure. The decision to retain Cuba on
the list surprised some observers of the long-contentious relationship between Havana and Washington. Since Fidel Castro retired
five years ago and handed the reins of power to his younger brother, Raul, modest economic reforms have been tackled and the
government has revoked the practice of requiring Cubans to get exit visas before they could leave their country for foreign travel.
There was talk early in Obamas first term of easing the 51-year-old embargo, and Kerry, though still in the Senate then, wrote a
commentary for the Tampa Bay Tribune in 2009 in which he deemed the security threat from Cuba a faint shadow. He called then
for freer travel between the two countries and an end to the U.S. policy of isolating Cuba that has manifestly failed for nearly 50
years. The political clout of the Cuban American community in South Florida and more recently
Havanas refusal to release Gross have kept any warming between the Cold War adversaries
at bay. Its a matter of political priorities and trade-offs, Aramesh said. He noted that former Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton last year exercised her discretion to get the Iranian opposition group Mujahedeen Khalq, or MEK,
removed from the governments list of designated terrorist organizations. That move was motivated by the hopes of some in
Congress that the group could be aided and encouraged to eventually challenge the Tehran regime. Its a question of how
much political cost you want to incur or how much political capital you want to spend, Aramesh
said. President Obama has decided not to reach out to Cuba, that he has more important
foreign policy battles elsewhere.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.

CASE
TL Key to Solving Terror Ext.
Terror list key to deterring state sponsored terrorism
Trager et al, 2006 - Fellow in the Department of Politics and International Relations at
Oxford University
(Robert F. Trager and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva, Ph.D. candidate in political science at Columbia
University, Deterring Terrorism: It can be done, International Security, Winter 2005/2006,
http://www.roberttrager.com/Research_files/IS2006.pdf)
State sponsors represent another element of terrorist systems that many view as less motivated and easier
to find, and therefore susceptible to deterrence. 33 Scholars and policymakers who are skeptical of using
deterrence against terrorists often believe that, on the contrary, their state sponsors are
deterrable. The Bush administrations National Strategy for Combating Terrorism contains a long discussion of the
administrations policy of deterring state sponsors of terrorism, though it makes no other explicit reference to a deterrence
approach. 34 Other scholars argue, however, that failing states may be highly motivated to sell their capabilities and provide other
assistance for financial gain. Nevertheless, because the response of a powerful state to a terrorist attack
will likely be proportional to the scale of the attack, even highly motivated potential state
sponsors with advanced capabilities and other countercoercive instruments will be forced to exercise restraint.
The capabilities of state sponsors may enable them to avoid being deterred from sup porting smaller-scale international terrorism,
but powerful states will likely retain the ability to deter would-be state sponsors from supporting larger-scale attacks.

Terror Impact Ext
Nuclear terrorism causes extinction most probable scenario
Creamer, 11 political organizer and strategist, Strategic Consulting Group (Robert, Post-Bin
Laden, It's Time to End the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism for Good, Huffington Post, 5/12,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/post-bin-laden---it-is-ti_b_860954.html)//SY
Worse, al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations have vowed to obtain and actually use
nuclear weapons. The status quo -- the balance of terror -- that for six decades prevented a
nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia is every day being made more unstable by the
increasing numbers of nuclear players -- and by the potential entry of non-state actors. Far from
being deterred by the chaos and human suffering that would ensue from nuclear war -- actors
like al Qaeda actively seek precisely that kind of cataclysm. The more nuclear weapons that
exist in the world -- and more importantly the more weapons-grade fissile material that can be
obtained to build a nuclear weapon -- the more likely it is that one, or many more, will actually
be used. In the 1980's the specter of a "Nuclear Winter" helped spur the movement for nuclear
arms reduction between the U.S. and Soviet Union. Studies showed that smoke caused by fires
set off by nuclear explosions in cities and industrial sites would rise to the stratosphere and
envelope the world. The ash would absorb energy from the sun so that the earth's surface
would get cold, dry and dark. Plants would die. Much of our food supply would disappear. Much
of the world's surface would reach winter temperatures in the summer.
Nuclear terrorism is the greatest threat to humanity most effective means of
destruction
Gallucci, 12 President, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (Robert, Preventing
Nuclear Terrorism, Huffington Post, 4/5 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-
gallucci/nuclear-terrorism_b_1406712.html)//SY
This is unfortunate, but not surprising. Even though recent presidents and presidential candidates have all said that nuclear terrorism
poses the greatest threat to the national security, people inside and outside of government do not act as though they
believe it. And until they do, real progress toward securing and then eliminating stocks of fissile material will not be made and, in fact, we will continue
to add to those stocks. We should all be concerned that perhaps during one morning rush hour in a major American
city, a nuclear weapon of crude and improvised design will be detonated. Such a device's yield will be far
smaller than that of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but still tens of thousands will die instantly from the blast, burns and radiation.
Over the following month, thousands more will succumb to burns, injuries, or the effects of radiation. The blast area will be uninhabitable for months
or longer. This is not the stuff of pulp fiction or sensational television; it is a credible scenario.
There is clear evidence that terrorist organizations, such as al-Qaeda, are interested in acquiring
and using nuclear weapons. They seek to inflict maximum damage with an economy of means; nothing
can accomplish this end more effectively and with more certainty than a nuclear weapon. We
have no reason to believe that a traditional defense against this threat will be effective. We
cannot expect to prevent access to our territory, and we cannot expect to deter a terrorist who
values our death more than his life. The danger is not only to the United States or Western Europe, as terror attacks in Moscow,
Mumbai and Bali demonstrate. Any nation that faces a threat from terrorism should be concerned.
Nuclear weapons are easy to use makes nuclear terrorism most likely scenario
for mass destruction
TRAC, 13 Terrorism Research & Analysis Consortium (Nuclear Terrorism,
http://www.trackingterrorism.org/article/nuclear-terrorism)//SY
With the advent of WMD, the basic understanding of terrorism as a phenomenon has moved
from a political and psychological level to a real threat of mass destruction and disruption. The
news of terrorists searching for nuclear weapons in Russia and Afghanistan coupled the threat
emanating from groups such as Al Qaeda and other groups has brought this threat to the forefront of
analysts attention. However, while there is a clear consensus about an increased threat of nuclear
and radiological terrorism in the post 9/11 period, there are also others who have tagged this threat as overrated
nightmare since using and acquiring nuclear capability may well be beyond the purview of a terrorist group. At a global level, any
form of nuclear terrorism could have a devastating effect when it leads to war or armed conflict
between two countries or among a group of nuclear powers. The impact of a nuclear-terrorist
act would be far greater when it would be misconstrued as an attack by the enemy country.
TYPES OF GROUPS LIKELY TO TRY WMDS Scholars have broadly categorized non state terrorists as actors who can resort to a
nuclear strike against a national state. For example, Charles Ferguson and W C Potter have clubbed them into four groups:
Apocalyptic groups (e.g Aum Shinrikyo), Politico-Religious Terrorist groups (e.g, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba) Nationalist
and Separatists groups (e.g. LTTE, Baloch Rebel group), and Single issue Terrorist (e.g eco-terrorist). OBTAINING WMDS There
are two imaginable ways for terrorists to get nuclear explosives. They could build a radiological
bomb or an improvised nuclear device or they could seek to steal or buy a miniaturized nuclear weapon.
Before dealing with the kind of threat our civil society could face in a nuclear catastrophe triggered
by terrorists, it would be useful to discuss and understand various types and effects of nuclear weapon and material used in it,
on the human environment. A terrorist group or an individual lone-wolf terrorist would not face
serious technical barriers in creating a basic or a crude nuclear device. With some degree of
technical sophistication it would be easier to build weapons which could maximize the damage
on any given environment, both civil and military.


Realism Good
Evolutionary psychology makes realism falsifiable and scientific human nature
proves realists are right
Thayer, 2000 [Bradley A., Former Research Fellow, International Security Program,
Associate Professor of Defense & Strategic Study, Missouri State University,
International Security, 01622889, Fall2000, Vol. 25, Issue 2 "Bringing in Darwin:
Evolutionary Theory, Realism, and International Politics"]
Evolutionary theory provides a better foundation for realism than the theological or
metaphysical arguments advanced by Niebuhr or Morgenthau for three reasons. First, it is superior
as judged by the common metrics in philosophy of science developed by Carl Hempel and Karl
Popper.[64] Evolutionary theory meets all of Hempel's criteria of the deductive-nomological (D-N)
model of scientific explanation, unlike Niebuhr's evil or Morgenthau's animus dominandi.[65]
Measured by Popper's criteria--developed in his theory of critical rationalism--evolutionary theory is
also superior because it is falsifiable.[66] That is, scholars know what evidence would not verify the
theory.[67] Niebuhr's and Morgenthau's ultimate causes are noumenal (i.e., outside the realm of
scientific investigation). Second, evolutionary theory offers a widely accepted scientific
explanation of human evolution, thus giving realism the scientific foundation it has
lacked. Third, realists can use evolutionary theory to advance arguments supporting
offensive realism without depending on the anarchic international system.
Offensive realists argue that states seek to maximize power because competition in
the international system to achieve security compels them to do so.[68] Realism based on
evolutionary theory reaches the same conclusion, but the causal mechanism is at
the first image (the individual) rather than the third image (the international system).
State decisionmakers are egoistic and strive to dominate others. In international
politics they do so by maximizing state power.[69] Focused, empirical testing is required to
determine which insights an offensive realism based on evolutionary theory provides. This in turn may
inform explanations of why state leaders choose to expand and why they are often able to generate
popular support for expansion with relative ease, or why external or internal threats have been such
powerful motivators in building national solidarity and mobilizing a society's resources.

Aff cant solve realism
Mearsheimer , professor at the University of Chicago, 2001
(John, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, www.wwnorton.com/catalog/fall01/002025excerpt.htm)
The optimists' claim that security competition and war among the great powers has been
burned out of the system is wrong. In fact, all of the major states around the globe still
care deeply about the balance of power and are destined to compete for power among
themselves for the foreseeable future. Consequently, realism will offer the most powerful
explanations of international politics over the next century, and this will be true even if the
debates among academic and policy elites are dominated by non-realist theories. In
short, the real world remains a realist world. States still fear each other and seek to gain
power at each other's expense, because international anarchythe driving force behind
great-power behaviordid not change with the end of the Cold War, and there are few
signs that such change is likely any time soon. States remain the principal actors in world
politics and there is still no night watchman standing above them. For sure, the collapse of the Soviet
Union caused a major shift in the global distribution of power. But it did not give rise to a change in
the anarchic structure of the system, and without that kind of profound change, there is no reason to
expect the great powers to behave much differently in the new century than they did in previous
centuries. Indeed, considerable evidence from the 1990s indicates that power politics has not
disappeared from Europe and Northeast Asia, the regions in which there are two or more great
powers, as well as possible great powers such as Germany and Japan. There is no question, however,
that the competition for power over the past decade has been low-key. Still, there is potential for
intense security competition among the great powers that might lead to a major war. Probably the
best evidence of that possibility is the fact that the United States maintains about one hundred
thousand troops each in Europe and in Northeast Asia for the explicit purpose of keeping the major
states in each region at peace.
Wishing away realism guarantees violence and no solvency
Murray, Department of Political Science, University of Bristol, 1997
(Alistair, Reconstructing Realism: Between Power Politics and Cosmopolitan Ethics, p. 181-182)
This highlights the central difficulty with Wendt's constructivism. It is not any form of unfounded
idealism about the possibility of effecting a change in international politics. Wendt accepts that the
intersubjective character of international institutions such as self-help render them relatively hard
social facts.
17
Rather, what is problematic is his faith that such change, if it could be achieved, implies
progress. Wendt's entire approach is governed by the belief that the problematic elements of
international politics can be transcended, that the competitive identities which create these
elements can be reconditioned, and that the predatory policies which underlie these identities can
be eliminated. Everything, in his account, is up for grabs: there is no core of recalcitrance to human
conduct which cannot be reformed, unlearnt, disposed of. This generates a stance that so privileges
the possibility of a systemic transformation that it simply puts aside the difficulties which it
recognises to be inherent in its achievement. Thus, even though Wendt acknowledges that the
intersubjective basis of the self-help system makes its reform difficult, this does not dissuade him. He
simply demands that states adopt a strategy of 'altercasting', a strategy which `tries to induce
alter to take on a new identity (and thereby enlist alter in ego's effort to change itself) by treating
alter as if it already had that identity'. 18 Wendt's position effectively culminates in a demand that the
state undertake nothing less than a giant leap of faith. The fact that its opponent might not
take its overtures seriously, might not be interested in reformulating its own
construction of the world, or might simply see such an opening as a weakness to be
exploited, are completely discounted. The prospect of achieving a systemic transformation simply
outweighs any adverse consequences which might arise from the effort to achieve it. Wendt
ultimately appears, in the final analysis, to have overdosed on 'Gorbimania'. 19 This is not merely to
indulge in yet another interminable discourse on the `lessons of Munich', rejecting all strategies of
assurance for more familiar policies of deterrence. A realist perspective does not, as Wendt seems to
assume, require worst-case forecasting, nor does it adopt an ethic of 'sauve qui peut'.
20
But it is to
suggest that, when realism emphasises the need for a cautious, gradual approach to
attempts to transform the nature of the system, it has a point. In Wendt's analysis, change
ultimately becomes as privileged as the status quo in rationalist perspectives. If he does not hold that
history is progressive, he does hold that change is. If he is not idealistic about the possibilities of
effecting a transformation of the system, he is with regard to the way in which it might be
accomplished. Yet, even if we acknowledge that a transformation in the structure of international
politics would be beneficial, this does not imply the acceptance of a desperate gamble to accomplish
it. And, at the end of the day, if we can accept that the current structure of international politics
contains many injustices, there is no guarantee that its transformation would remove
such iniquities anyway. The only thing that the quest to overthrow the status quo
does guarantee to do is to undermine those fragments of order that we currently
possess. Ultimately, constructivism can be seen to rest upon a value judgement which sacrifices the
safe option of remaining within the current situation for the attempt to explore its possibilities. It can
be seen to rest on a progressive philosophy which privileges the possible over the extant and sacrifices
stability on the altar of transformation.This is not to attempt to level a charge of utopianism, as
Wendt complains that Mearsheimer does, by emphasising constructivism's normative rather than
explanatory commitment. As Wendt responds: 'Constructivists have a normative interest in promoting
social change, but they pursue this by trying to explain how seemingly natural social structures, like
self-help or the Cold War, are effects of practice ... If critical theorists fail, this will be
because they do not explain how the world works, not because of their values."' All
theories ultimately have normative commitments; the fact of their existence does not allow us to
question the validity of constructivism's explanatory power. What does, however, is the impact of
these normative assumptions on its account of international politics. Just as reflectivists argue that
the implicit conservatism of neorealism generates its ahistoricism, the implicit progressivism of
constructivism generates its unwillingness to acknowledge even the possibility of elements of
permanency. And, just as reflectivists argue that the implicit conservatism of neorealism generates
strategies which threaten to become self-perpetuating, so the implicit progressivism of
constructivism generates strategies which threaten to become counter-productive.

Realism Inevitable
Realism is inevitable in a world of the nation states with finite resources,
deconstruction of realism will never be a transformational strategy
Jarvis, lecturer in the Department of Government and International Relations, Faculty of Economics, Politics and Business at the
University of Sydney, Australia, 2000
(DSL, International Relations and the Challenge of Post Modernism, University of South Carolina Press, pg 111)
At base, Ashley believed it was the nation-state that was the source of war and conflict. More
precisely, it was the state combined with technical rationality that, in a world of finite
resources, created competitive dynamics between states and resulted in differential
technological and economic growth patterns, unevenly distributed capabilities and a global system
prone to war.
106
This explains why Ashley understood realism as a symptom and not the
source of conflictual politics and why a theoretical deconstruction of realism and
neorealism would never suffice as a transformational strategy. In the end, only the
obliteration of the state itself would allow humankind freedom from the territorial
logic of the state-as-actor. Only then would we escape the cartographic abstractions that divide
humankind, the perceptions of insecurity they incite, and the realist narratives they necessitate.
Only then would humankind achieve self realization.

AT: Root Cause of War

Theres no one root cause of warso many alternate explanations.
Sharp 8 senior associate deputy general counsel for intelligence at the US Department of
Defense, Dr. Walter, Democracy and Deterrence, Air Force University Press, May,
http://aupress.maxwell.af.mil/Books/sharp/Sharp.pdf
While classical liberals focused on political structures, socialists analyzed the socioeconomic system
of states as the primary factor in determining the propensity of states to engage in war. Socialists such
as Karl Marx attributed war to the class structure of society; Marx believed that war resulted from a
clash of social forces created by a capitalist mode of production that develops two antagonistic
classes, rather than being an instrument of state policy. Thus capitalist states would engage in war
because of their growing needs for raw materials, markets, and cheap labor. Socialists believed
replacing capitalism with socialism could prevent war, but world events have proven socialists
wrong as well.32 These two schools of thoughtwar is caused by innate biological drives or
social institutionsdo not demonstrate any meaningful correlation with the occurrence or
nonoccurrence of war. There are many variables not considered by these two schools: for
example, the influence of national special interest groups such as the military or defense
contractors that may seek glory through victory, greater resources, greater domestic
political power, or justification for their existence. Legal scholar Quincy Wright has conducted
one of the most thorough studies of the nature of war33 and concludes that there is no single
cause of war.34 In A Study of War, he concludes that peace is an equilibrium of four complex
factors: military and industrial technology, international law governing the resort to war, social and
political organization at the domestic and international level, and the distribution of attitudes and
opinions concerning basic values. War is likely when controls on any one level are disturbed or
changed.35 Similarly, the 1997 US National Military Strategy identifies the root causes of conflict as
political, economic, social, and legal conditions.36 Moore has compiled the following list of
conventional explanations for war: specific disputes; absence of dispute settlement
mechanisms; ideological disputes; ethnic and religious differences; communication
failures; proliferation of weapons and arms races; social and economic injustice; imbalance
of power; competition for resources; incidents, accidents, and miscalculation;
violence in the nature of man; aggressive national leaders; and economic determination. He
has concluded, however, that these causes or motives for war explain specific conflicts but fail to serve
as a central paradigm for explaining the cause of war.37

Discourse doesnt shape reality 4 reasons.
Peabody and Roskoski 91 - joe and matthew, fsu, a linguistic and philosophical critique of
language arguments, http://debate.uvm.edu/library/debatetheorylibrary/roskoski&peabody-
langcritiques)
One reason for the hypothesis being taken for granted is that on first glance it seems intuitively valid
to some. However, after research is conducted it becomes clear that this intuition is no longer true.
Rosch notes that the hypothesis "not only does not appear to be empirically true in any major respect,
but it no longer even seems profoundly and ineffably true" (Rosch 276). The implication for language
"arguments" is clear: a debater must do more than simply read cards from feminist or critical
scholars that say language creates reality. Instead, the debater must support this claim with
empirical studies or other forms of scientifically valid research. Mere intuition is not enough,
and it is our belief that valid empirical studies do not support the hypothesis. After
assessing the studies up to and including 1989, Takano claimed that the hypothesis "has no
empirical support" (Takano 142). Further, Miller & McNeill claim that "nearly all" of the studies
performed on the Whorfian hypothesis "are best regarded as efforts to substantiate
the weak version of the hypothesis" (Miller & McNeill 734). We additionally will offer four
reasons the hypothesis is not valid. The first reason is that it is impossible to generate
empirical validation for the hypothesis. Because the hypothesis is so metaphysical and because
it relies so heavily on intuition it is difficult if not impossible to operationalize. Rosch asserts that
"profound and ineffable truths are not, in that form, subject to scientific investigation" (Rosch 259).
We concur for two reasons. The first is that the hypothesis is phrased as a philosophical first principle
and hence would not have an objective referent. The second is there would be intrinsic problems in
any such test. The independent variable would be the language used by the
subject. The dependent variable would be the subject's subjective reality. The
problem is that the dependent variable can only be measured through self-
reporting, which - naturally - entails the use of language. Hence, it is impossible to
separate the dependent and independent variables. In other words, we have no way
of knowing if the effects on "reality" are actual or merely artifacts of the language being
used as a measuring tool. The second reason that the hypothesis is flawed is that there are
problems with the causal relationship it describes. Simply put, it is just as plausible (in fact
infinitely more so) that reality shapes language. Again we echo the words of Dr. Rosch, who
says: {C}ovariation does not determine the direction of causality. On the simplest level, cultures are
very likely to have names for physical objects which exist in their culture and not to have names for
objects outside of their experience. Where television sets exists, there are words to refer
to them. However, it would be difficult to argue that the objects are caused by the
words. The same reasoning probably holds in the case of institutions and other, more
abstract, entities and their names. (Rosch 264). The color studies reported by Cole & Means
tend to support this claim (Cole & Means 75). Even in the best case scenario for the Whorfians, one
could only claim that there are causal operations working both ways - i.e. reality shapes language and
language shapes reality. If that was found to be true, which at this point it still has not, the hypothesis
would still be scientifically problematic because "we would have difficulty calculating the extent to
which the language we use determines our thought" (Schultz 134). The third objection is that the
hypothesis self- implodes. If language creates reality, then different cultures with
different languages would have different realities. Were that the case, then
meaningful cross- cultural communication would be difficult if not impossible. In Au's
words: "it is never the case that something expressed in Zuni or Hopi or Latin cannot be
expressed at all in English. Were it the case, Whorf could not have written his articles as he did
entirely in English" (Au 156). The fourth and final objection is that the hypothesis cannot
account for single words with multiple meanings. For example, as Takano notes, the
word "bank" has multiple meanings (Takano 149). If language truly created reality
then this would not be possible. Further, most if not all language "arguments" in debate are
accompanied by the claim that intent is irrelevant because the actual rhetoric exists apart from the
rhetor's intent. If this is so, then the Whorfian advocate cannot claim that the intent of the speaker
distinguishes what reality the rhetoric creates. The prevalence of such multiple meanings in a debate
context is demonstrated with every new topicality debate, where debaters spend entire rounds
quibbling over multiple interpretations of a few words.1

Heg Good Warming Impacts
US military power and leadership is key to solve climate change.
Maybee 08 (Sean C, US Navy commander, p. 98, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Press/jfq_pages/i49.htm)
For the purpose of this essay, national security is defined as the need to maintain the safety, prosperity, and survival of the nation-state through the use of instruments of national power:
diplomatic, military, economic, and informational power will be the drivers of GCC
responses as they provide the needed resources ideas and technology. It will be
through invoking military and diplomatic power that resources are used and new
ideas are implemented to overcome any GCC challenges. In addition to fighting and winning the nations wars, the
US military has a long history of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, but the potential
impacts of GCC should lead national security policymakers to consider how environmental security will play a role in the future.

Unchecked warming risks destruction of the planetHawking says so
Steve Connor, journalist, Hawking Warns: We Must Recognize the Catastrophic Danges of
Climate Change, INDEPENDNET, 1-18-07,
www.globalpolicy.org/socecon/envronmt/climate/2007/0118doomsday.htm, accessed 5-20-08.
Climate change stands alongside the use of nuclear weapons as one of the greatest
threats posed to the future of the world, the Cambridge cosmologist Stephen Hawking
has said. Professor Hawking said that we stand on the precipice of a second nuclear age and a
period of exceptional climate change, both of which could destroy the planet as we know it.
He was speaking at the Royal Society in London yesterday at a conference organised by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists which has decided
to move the minute hand of its "Doomsday Clock" forward to five minutes to midnight to reflect the increased dangers faced by the world.
Scientists devised the clock in 1947 as a way of expressing to the public the risk of nuclear conflagration following the use of the atomic
weapons that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the Second World War. "As we stand at the brink of a
second nuclear age and a period of unprecedented climate change, scientists have a
special responsibility, once again, to inform the public and to advise leaders about the
perils that humanity faces," Professor Hawking said. "As scientists, we understand the dangers of
nuclear weapons and their devastating effects, and we are learning how human
activities and technologies are affecting climate systems in ways that may forever
change life on Earth. "As citizens of the world, we have a duty to share that knowledge. We have a duty, as well, to alert the
public to the unnecessary risks that we live with every day, and to the perils we foresee if governments and societies do not take action
now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and to prevent further climate change.

VENEZUELA LIBERALIZE OIL SECTOR

Ptx
Immigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority
Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN, REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staff writer)
Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reform
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist predicted Monday that House
Republicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately of
many of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this, Norquist said of immigration reform at an event
hosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans. Immigration reform legislation passed the Senate
overwhelmingly in June but has run into stiff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill
to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed
toward a slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel
said that a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible
for most of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth, Emanuel said.
Leaders in the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican
Party is. Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the
anti-tax group surmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Congressional opposition to Venezuela because of ties to Iran
Bowman, 12 (2/16/2012, Michael, U.S. Congress Warns Venezuela over Ties with Iran,
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=72042&pageid=17&pagename=News,
JMP)

U.S. senators are warning Latin American nations against deepening financial and military ties
with Iran, pledging heightened U.S. vigilance of Iranian activities in the Western Hemisphere.
The Senate's Foreign Relations Subcommittee took a close look on February 16 at Tehrans
dealings with Latin America. Irans increasingly isolated regime retains friends in Latin America,
most notably Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
U.S. Democratic Senator Robert Menendez had a stern message for the region. Unfortunately,
there are some countries in this hemisphere that, for political or financial gain, have courted
Iranian overtures. They proceed at their own risk: the risk of sanctions from the United States,
and the risk of abetting a terrorist state, he said.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio echoed that message. The leaders of these *Latin American]
countries are playing with fire, Rubio said.
Researcher Douglas Farah said Iran's intentions in Latin America are twofold. To develop the
capacity and capability to wreak havoc in Latin America and possibly the U.S. homeland, if the
Iranian leadership views this as necessary to the survival of its nuclear program, and to develop
and expand the ability to blunt international sanctions that are crippling the regimes economic
life, Farah said.
Of particular concern: Irans quest for raw nuclear materials and what U.S. National Intelligence
Director James Clapper recently described as Irans increasing willingness to mount attacks on
U.S. soil.
Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR can
reaffirm our alliance with India
Zee News 12
*Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-
hike-in-ny_802978.html]
New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to
come up for discussion when External Affairs Minister SM Krishna meets US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton here on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up
the issue of the visa fee hike with the US and the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official
sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010 to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under the
Border Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action and
India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources said that
young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US
relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relations that has brought the two countries closer.
Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas available to Indian companies is tantamount to
"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and
putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral
ties," the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met in
India in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visa
issue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.
part of the world are essential to the peace and prosperity of the world.
Key to every existential threat
Armitage et al 10
[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy
Secretary of State. R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy
and International Politics, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.
Richard Fontaine is the President of the Center for New American Security.
Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-India Relations, October,
Center for New American Security,
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]
A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The
transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton
and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy. It
has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civil
nuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and
deepened their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear
this rapid expansion of ties has stalled. Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have
been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent
cooperation has subsided. The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, including
with its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a
sense among observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to
rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid
foundation. The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in the
relationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the
Center for a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and
we articulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that
the United States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged
U.N. Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatly
expand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a step
toward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will
require India to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil
Nuclear Agreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules
for protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and
seeking closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United
Nations. The U.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or
limited to occasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United
States should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S.
interests in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global
balance of power. Strengthening an open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and
preserving access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering
terrorism and violent extremism. Ensuring access to secure global energy resources.
Bolstering the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracy and human
rights. Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A strong U.S.-India strategic
partnership will prove indispensable to the regions continued peace and prosperity. Both
India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power in
Asia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise
increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong. Growing
U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and will make it
easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with Beijing. In
addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner, will signal that
the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in Asia. The need for
closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an increasingly vital
role in addressing virtually all major global challenges. Now is the time to transform a series of
bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.
K
US Intervention in Venezuela is marked by self-interest and neoliberal
imposition
Clement, Visiting Assistant Professor of Politics at Pomona, 05 (Christopher, Confronting Hugo Chvez: United States
"Democracy Promotion" in Latin America, Latin American Perspectives 32:3, 5/05, JSTOR)//AS
I offer a markedly different critique of U.S. democracy promotion. Indeed, the policy is premised on the
ideological assumption that democratic governance optimizes global capitalism and
international stability, but the above argument pays little attention to the narrow and
orthodox intellectual forces that underpin the practice of democracy promotion. The preoccupation with
party building and the "semi-authoritarian" tag used in Venezuela and elsewhere demonstrates a
growing awareness that political liberalization does not necessarily result in populations or regimes that
readily fall in line with free-market principles or U.S.-defined global security priorities. Experimentation and
departures from the authorized model of political liberalization are frequently identified as threats to democratic consolidation.
Hugo Chavez's trenchant critique of party politics in Venezuela and his sweeping political reforms run counter to the conventional
written narratives of democratization. Moreover, idealism has not been the sole (or even the principal)
impulse behind the practice of democracy promotion. Contrary to the assertions of Zakaria and other critics,
U.S. foreign policy has not promoted democracy simply because it is moral. The practice is
deployed primarily when U.S. interests can be secured by using a targeted country's electoral system (or other
constitutional mechanisms) to accomplish regime change. Further- more, while these interventions may not be driven by
morality, they are associated with moral rhetoric that casts the intransigent leaders (even elected
ones) as dubious political actors with undemocratic intentions. The statements of several members of the
Bush administration make clear that Washington considers tensions with Venezuela the result of a government in Cara- cas that
lacks an "understanding of what a democratic system is all about." Other official statements and the NED's grant descriptions also
suggest that a victory by Chavez's U.S.-backed opponents will not only "return" the coun~ try to democracy but also repair
Venezuela's "close friendship" with the United States.
Neoliberalism causes poverty, social exclusion, societal disintegration, violence
and environmental destructionthreatens humanity
De La Barra, Chilean political activist, international consultant and former UNICEF Latin America Public Policy Advisor 07--
(Ximena, THE DUAL DEBT OF NEOLIBERALISM, Imperialism, Neoliberalism and Social Struggles in Latin America, 9/1/09, edited by
Dello Bueno and Lara, Brill Online)//AS
The currently prevailing neoliberal development model has brought with it various technological
advances and economic and commercial growth. However, these results ultimately benefit fewer and
fewer people while augmenting social inequality, injustices, and promoting serious social and
ethical setbacks. It is definitely not eradicating poverty On the contrary, it creates conditions for a
growing tendency towards political,economic and social exclusion for the majority of the
worlds population.The model exacerbates poverty, social disparities, ecological
degradation,violence and social disintegration. Loss of governability flows from its systematic
logic of emphasising an ever cheaper labour force, the reduction ofsocial benefits, the
disarticulation and destruction of labourorganisations,and the elimination of labour and
ecological regulation (de la Barra 1997). Inthis way, it consolidates a kind of cannibalism known as
social dumping that seeks to lower costs below the value of social reproduction rather than
organising a process of progressive social accumulation. For most of Latin Americaand the Caribbean, the
present minimum wage levels only allow for a portionof the basic consumption package needed by working people (Bossio 2002).At
present, the global income gap between the 10% poorest portion of theworlds population and the wealthiest 10% has grown to be
1 to 103 (UNDP2005). According to this same source, around 2.5 billion people, almost halfof humanity, lives on less than US$ 2. per
day (considered the poverty level),while 1.2 billion of these people live on less than US$ 1. per day (consideredthe level of extreme
poverty).Given its neoliberal character, globalisation failed to produce the benefits that were touted.
Indeed, the process has greatly harmed the most vulnerable social sectors produced by the
previous phase of capitalist development.The lack of social and ethical objectives in the current globalisation
processhas resulted in benefits only in those countries where a robust physical andhuman infrastructure exists, where redistributive
social policies are the norm,and where fair access to markets and strong regulatory entities are in place.Where such conditions do
not exist, globalisation has led to stagnation and marginalisation, with declining health and
educational levels of its children,especially among the poor. Some regions, including Eastern Europe, the
former Soviet Union, Sub-Saharan Africa, and more recently, Latin America andthe Caribbean, as well as some countries within
regions and some personswithin countries (poor children and adolescents, rural inhabitants and urbanslum dwellers, indigenous
peoples, children of illiterate women, illegal immigrants, etc.) have remained mostly excluded (UNICEF 2001).
Neoliberalism is creating its own downfallmovements gathering political
steam against italt is to reject the neoliberal policies of the aff and allow it to
fall
Lafer, political economist and is an Associate Professor at the University of Oregon's Labor Education and Research Center 04
(Gordon, Neoliberalism by other means: the war on terror at home and abroad, New Political Science 26:3, 2004, Taylor and
Francis)//AS
Finally, the global justice movement that came together in the Seattle 1999 protests against
the WTO marked the potential birth of a massive and powerful new movement challenging
corporate prerogatives. It is easy to overestimate the importance of the Seattle protests.The few days of unity did not undo
the many differences between the various protest groups. And the months following Seattle were lled with where do we go from
here? discussions that never achieved a satisfactory answer. It is not clear that the coalition that assembled in
Seattle deserves to be called a movement. However, even as a rst step with an uncertain
future, the import of these protests was potentially earth-shaking. Essentially, the anti-WTO
protests undid ssures that had fractured progressive organizations for at least four decades.
At least since the Vietnam war, the history of whatever might be called the American left has been primarily characterized by
fragmentation. In place of the Old Lefts unity around class, the New Left led to multiple and often conicting agendas organized
around various forms of identity politics. While feminist, civil rights and labor organizations might come together around specic
political issues, the alliances were generally short-lived and supercial. Most important from an economic point of view, the labor
movement throughout the 1970s and 1980s was largely alienated from the most energetic social change movements. The
incredible accomplishment of Seattle was to forge a coalition that overcame these differences
in opposition to a common enemy. For union members, Seattle was possible because 20 years of jobs going overseas
and management invoking the threat to relocate as a strategy for slashing wages had made globalization a gut-level rank and le
issue. Thus the process of neoliberalism nally created its own antithesis in a labor movement
that was ready to join with youth, environmentalists and immigrant organizations in ghting
the power. From a corporate viewpoint, the divisions that for 30 years had so effectively kept the various parts of the left
from coming together were threatening to dissolve.

Our alt is a Unique moment for rejection of capitalismonly a total rejection
will suffice
Resnick and Wolff, professors of economics at Amherst and Visiting Professor in the Graduate Program in International
Affairs of the New School University (Wolff) 03 (Stephen and Richard, Exploitation, Consumption, and the Uniqueness of US
Capitalism, Historical Materialism 11:4, Brill)//AS
The toll taken on workers' lives has been profound, and never more than at present. Stressed and collapsed
household class structures, severe psychological and physical strains, civic isolation and
personal loneliness, violence and despair are US capitalism's weaknesses and failures just as surely as rising
rates of exploitation and real wages are its successes. 'I`heopportunities for a socialist critique to be
embraced are therefore abundant in the US. Responding to those opportunities will require a shift away
from defining class in terms of wealth and property and away from programmes focused too narrowly on
raising real wages. That plays to US capitalism's strength and not its weaknesses. Of course, low wages, poor working conditions, and
job insecurities will remain targets of socialist critique, but eradicating them will be only part of a renewed socialism. Much the
greater part will connect the dominant organisation of the surplus - capitalist exploitation - to
the host of profound problems and sufferings now experienced by the mass of US citizens.
Such a socialism would make the end of exploitation an indispensable component of its
programme and vision. To paraphrase the old man once more: not higher wages but the abolition of the wage system
is the point. To demand less for the victims of capitalist exploitation would be the equivalent of
demanding better rations for the slaves rather than the abolition of slavery.
China DA
Chinas influence in North American trade is expanding
Shaiken et al 13
[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique Peters
Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian Hearn Centro de
Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the New
Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013. Pg
7-8]
This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a process beginning
in 2001 with Chinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico and the
U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since
2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinas massive trade volume with both the
U.S. and Mexico. The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developing trade relationship with
both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each countrys respective trade
dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the
United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our
examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the
region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen
sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from 2000-
2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export markets in
the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products such as
telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing accessories and
garments, among many others. NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-
2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as
autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some of the
predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment,
employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the
gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small
portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even
in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA , the integration process did not allow for
the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-), NAFTA has
shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-
industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have
been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in
debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).
Chinas influence is zero-sum- lack of US influence is key
Kreps, 13 Assistant Professors of Government at Cornell University (Sarah E., No Strings
Attached? Evaluating Chinas Trade Relations Abroad, May 17, http://thediplomat.com/china-
power/no-strings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad)//VP
To be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment on
foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however, this gravitational effect has a sound
economic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are comparatively much more dependent on China than
China is on these countries. In a ten year period, for example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross Domestic
Product. That pattern is even starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While
China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far less important
to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China a bargaining
advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit design. Whether by
design or not, the convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is important on at least two
levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by the prospect of partnering
with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political agenda, as did the United
States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether this reaches the level of new
colonialism as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that
undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the
same period in which Chinas trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have
increased, the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior. This
suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which Chinas growing trade relations make it
easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing. Taken together,
these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world. Since the September 2001
attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin America through benign neglect and shifted
its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow from tighter commercial
relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic agenda as an important means
of projecting influence abroad.
The plan disrupts Chinas oil investment in Venezuela and Venezuelas effort to end US oil
dependency
Johnson, 05 Senior Policy Analyst for Latin American in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center
for Foreign Policy Studies (Stephen, Balancing Chinas Growing Influence in Latin America, The
Heritage Foundation, October 24,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-
latin-america)//VP
To meet domestic industrial needs and con-sumer demand, China has pursued investments and agreements
with such oil producers as Venezu-ela, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Brazil, and even Mexico. The best fit is
with Venezuela's authoritar-ian leader Hugo Chvez, who directly controls the state oil industry.
President Chvez has invited the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to participate in
exploring the rich Orinoco belt. Meanwhile, the CNPC has invested $300 million in technology to
use Venezuela's Orimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants.
For now, Venezuela plans to increase exports to China by 300,000 barrels per day and recently signed
an agreement with Colombia to build a pipeline to the port of Tribuga on the Pacific coast, since supertankers cannot pass through
the Pan-ama Canal. An additional proposal with Panama would modify a Panamanian oil pipeline to facili-tate shipping oil to the
Pacific coast. On his 2004 visit to Beijing, President Chvez said shifting exports to China will help end
dependency on sales to the United States.

Venezuelan oil is key to Chinas presence in Latin America.
Ellis, 06 Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., PhD in Political Science and
studies Latin American Security (Evan, The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America:
Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region, Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.,
March 3, http://www6.miami.edu/hemispheric-
policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf)//VP
Venezuela. The PRC has long had a close relationship with the populist regime of Venezuelan
president Hugo Chvez, including China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), which has been
operating Venezuelan oil fields in Zulia and Anzoategui provinces for several years.42 The Chinese
presence was important in helping the Venezuelan state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela Sociedad
Annima (PdVSA) to recover from the 2003 strike, when the Venezuelan president fired half of the PdVSA
workforce.43 During 2005, CNPC signed additional agreements to develop the oilfields Zumano and the
Junn 4 block in Orinoco, as part of collaboration with PdVSA to boost the nations petroleum
output.44
Chinese international influence is an existential impact it controls every
scenario for extinction
Zhang 12
*Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas Political
Softpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive
both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including
widespread poverty , international conflict , the clash of civilizations and environmental
protection . Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues;
the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these
dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has worsened
poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed countries is 32 times as large as that
in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are
striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of
development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to
virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful
in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of
"exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of
terrorism threatens global security . In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most
precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international
cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of
civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world,
which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own benefits yet
promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash
of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which means to
respect other nations, and learn from each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of
Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out in China.
China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its
"self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their
people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for
the emission of greenhouse gases . Although Europeans and Americans have a strong
awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles.
Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective
environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China model The China
model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the above four issues
grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizing modernization while
maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense of human consciousness.
Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't be explained by
Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has significantly
helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing poverty, and
manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.

CASE

1nc Relations

U.S. influence and relations in Latin America are inevitable
Alvarado, 13 --- former diplomat in the Mission of Venezuela to the Organization of American
States (5/31/2013, Liza Torres Alvarado, The U.S. Must Re-evaluate its Foreign Policy in Latin
America, http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Digital-Library/Articles/Detail/?lng=en&id=164370, JMP)

Although there has been a decline in U.S. influence in the region, its presence is still there. In
Venezuela, for example, U.S. oil companies have seen their actions limited, yet they still
operate there. The United S tates is Venezuelas top commercial partner, as Venezuela
supplies 12 percent of U.S. oil imports.
Relations between the United S tates and Latin America have experienced cyclical ups and
downs. Geographically, the United S tates and Latin America are linked and have a natural
shared market, so there will always be a relationship of one sort or another . The United
S tates will continue to seek to exert its influence over the region, whether through future
plans for the placement of military bases or the promotion of bilateral trade agreements.
U.S. committed to constructive engagement now --- focused on anti-drug and
counter terror
Sullivan, 13 --- Specialist in Latin American Affairs at Congressional Research Service
(1/10/2013, Mark P., Venezuela: Issues for Congress,
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40938.pdf, JMP)

U.S. Policy
The United States traditionally has had close relations with Venezuela, a major supplier of
foreign oil, but there has been friction in relations under the Chvez government. Over the
years, U.S. officials have expressed concerns about human rights, Venezuelas military arms
purchases, its relations with Iran, and its efforts to export its brand of populism to other Latin
American countries. Declining cooperation on anti-drug and anti-terrorism efforts has been a
major concern. The United States has imposed sanctions: on several Venezuelan government
and military officials for allegedly helping the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
with drug and weapons trafficking; on three Venezuelan companies for providing support to
Iran; and on several Venezuelan individuals for providing support to Hezbollah. Despite tensions
in relations, the Obama Administration remains committed to seeking constructive
engagement with Venezuela, focusing on such areas as anti-drug and counter-terrorism
efforts. In the aftermath of President Chvezs reelection, the White House, while
acknowledging differences with President Chvez, congratulated the Venezuelan people on
the high level of participation and the relatively peaceful election process.

Some tensions are inevitable
Duddy, 13 --- served as the U.S. ambassador to Venezuela from 2007 until 2010 (May 2013,
Ambassador (ret.) Patrick Duddy, Venezuela after Chavez,
http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2013/0105/ca/duddy_venezuela.html, JMP)

In such circumstances, would the Chavistas risk making the bilateral relationship worse? It is
hard to imagine but probably not impossible. That said, for the foreseeable future, Venezuela
will depend on oil receipts from the U.S. to keep the ship of state afloat. Until other markets are
able to absorb a greater percentage of Venezuelas heavy, sulfuric oil and pay full price or
Venezuelas production increases substantially, Venezuela will continue to sell to the U.S. Just
as importantly, we will likely continue to buy what they produce. Might the relationship
improve? Those who have faith in the power of common interests believe it is possible.
Moreover, during my tenure as ambassador, both the Bush administration and the Obama
administration have emphasized that the U.S. would like to have a more productive, a more
functional relationship with Venezuela. I think this will be tough to achieve with a Chavista
government. Anti-Americanism is a core tenet of Chavezs Bolivarian movement. Tensions
may ease from time to time but, as we have seen since Chavezs death, but the antipathy of
the Chavistas toward the U.S. is deeply established and never entirely absent .

Single instances of action do not change international perceptions of the U.S.
Fettweis 8 (Christopher professor of political science at Tulane, Credibility and the War on
Terror, Political Science Quarterly, Winter, GDI File)

Since Vietnam, scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in which high credibility
helped the United States achieve its goals. The shortterm aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis,
for example, did not include a string of Soviet reversals, or the kind of benign bandwagoning with the West that
deterrence theorists would have expected. In fact, the perceived reversal in Cuba seemed to harden Soviet resolve. As the crisis was
drawing to a close, Soviet diplomat Vasily Kuznetsov angrily told his counterpart, "You Americans will never be able to do this to us
again."37 Kissinger commented in his memoirs that "the Soviet Union thereupon launched itself on a determined, systematic, and
long-term program of expanding all categories of its military power .... The 1962 Cuban crisis was thus a historic turning point-but
not for the reason some Americans complacently supposed."38 The reassertion of the credibility of the United States, which was
done at the brink of nuclear war, had few long-lasting benefits. The Soviets seemed to learn the wrong lesson. There is
actually scant evidence that other states ever learn the right lessons. Cold War history
contains little reason to believe that the credibility of the superpowers had very much effect
on their ability to influence others. Over the last decade, a series of major scholarly studies have cast
further doubt upon the fundamental assumption of interdependence across foreign policy
actions. Employing methods borrowed from social psychology rather than the economics-based models commonly employed by
deterrence theorists, Jonathan Mercer argued that threats are far more independent than is commonly
believed and, therefore, that reputations are not likely to be formed on the basis of individual
actions.39 While policymakers may feel that their decisions send messages about their basic dispositions to others, most of the
evidence from social psychology suggests otherwise. Groups tend to interpret the actions of their rivals as
situational, dependent upon the constraints of place and time. Therefore, they are not likely to
form lasting impressions of irresolution from single, independent events. Mercer argued that the
interdependence assumption had been accepted on faith, and rarely put to a coherent test; when it was, it almost inevitably
failed.40

--- XT: Relations Resilient

Oil ties make relations resilient
New York Daily Sun, 13 (1/29/2013, Venezuela Open To Discussion On Improving Ties
With The US, http://www.newyorkdailysun.com/venezuela-open-to-discussion-on-improving-
ties-with-the-us/, JMP)

Despite the strained relationship of the US and Venezuela due to ideological differences, the
two countries cant help but keep their ties due to oil-trading .
To date, the US is Venezuelas largest importer, with the US taking forty per cent of Venezuelas
crude oil exports. On the other hand, Venezuela provides about 5.8 per cent of the US oil
demands.

--- XT: U.S. Committed to Relations Now

Both countries are working to find common ground now on drugs
New York Daily Sun, 13 (1/29/2013, Venezuela Open To Discussion On Improving Ties
With The US, http://www.newyorkdailysun.com/venezuela-open-to-discussion-on-improving-
ties-with-the-us/, JMP)

The two countries ties used to be strong. However, after taking office, President Hugo Chvez
accused the Bush administration of attempting a coup to oust him from his position and broke
off diplomatic ties with the U.S. Furthermore, Chavez reasserted sovereignty over Venezuelas
oil reserves and raised royalties for foreign firms, which challenged the US economic position.
More than that, Chavez made his friendship with Fidel Castro public and made significant trade
with Cuba which undermined the U.S. policy of isolating the said nation. Their relation was only
reestablished in 2009 when Barack Obama was elected President of the United States, though
their ties has been strained since then.
But the tide has once again turned. With Chavez out of the picture due to his illness,
Venezuelan officials are trying to ally themselves with the US. To amend their ties, the
Venezuelan government is reported to be considering US proposal for the return of anti-drug
agents chased out of the Venezuela eight years ago by President Chavez.
On this issue, Venezuelas ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), Roy
Chaderton said that both countries are trying to find a common ground .
He said: There are things that are being done with a great deal of seriousness and a lot of
caution, and added, We are not obliged to have bad ties with governments which have
different visions to ours I hope pragmatism prevails and we reach a fair place of mutual
interest.

--- XT: Alt Cause Immigration

Lack of immigration reform major factor undermining relations
Inter-American Dialogue, 12 --- the leading U.S. center for policy analysis, exchange, and
communication on issues in Western Hemisphere affairs (April 2012, An Inter-American
Dialogue Policy Report, The Dialogues select membership of 100 distinguished citizens from
throughout the Americas includes political, business, academic, media, and other
nongovernmental leaders, Remaking the Relationship: The United States and Latin America,
http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf, JMP)

Immigration
Washingtons failure to repair the United States broken immigration system is breeding
resentment across the region , nowhere more so than in the principal points of origin and
transit: Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Latin Americans find the idea of building a
wall on the US-Mexico border particularly offensive.
Despite bitter political battles over immigration in the United States, there is general agreement
about what sensible reform would include. It combines effective border and employer
enforcement, the adoption of a general worker program consistent with labor market needs in
the United States, and a path toward residence and citizenship for the estimated 12 million
unauthorized residents living in the country. This package is similar to the reform effort
(unfortunately defeated in Congress) proposed under President George W. Bush.
The complicated and divisive politics of the United States, compounded by the weakness of
the US economy, have so far blocked this comprehensive approach. But more limited
measures such as the Dream Act, allowing children brought to the United States without
appropriate documentation an opportunity to qualify for citizenship, would not only be
welcomed in US Latino communities and in Latin America, but it would demonstrate that the
issue is being taken seriously and with a measure of compassion in Washington.

--- XT: Say No
Venezuela will say no --- anti-Americanism is too entrenched
Drezner, 13 --- professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
at Tufts University (3/7/2013, Daniel W., Why post-Chavez Venezuela won't be a U.S. ally
anytime soon, http://drezner.foreignpolicy.com/category/wordpress_tag/venezuela, JMP)

The passing of Hugo Chavez has prompted the usual 21st century cycle of news coverage and
commentary that follows the death of a polarizing figure: the breaking news on Twitter,
followed by the news obits, followed by the hosannahs from supporters, followed by
denunciations of the figure, followed by official statements, followed by mealy-mouthed op-eds,
followed by hysterical, unhinged criticism of standard diplomatic language.
Now that the first news cycle has passed, we can get to the more interesting question of
assessing Venezuela's future. There was always a fundamental irony to Hugo Chavez's foreign
policy. Despite his best efforts to chart a course at odds with the United States, he could never
escape a fundamental geopolitical fact of life: Venezuela's economic engine was based on
exporting a kind of oil that could pretty much only be refined in the United S tates. So, with
Chavez's passing, it would seem like a no-brainer for his successor to tamp down hostility with
the United S tates. After all, Chavez's "Bolivarian" foreign policy was rather expensive -- energy
subsidies to Cuba alone were equal to U.S. foreign aid to Israel, for example. With U.S. oil
multinationals looking hopefully at Venezuela and Caracas in desperate need of foreign
investment, could Chavez's successor re-align foreign relations closer to the U.S.A.? I'm not
betting on it, however, for one simple reason: Venezuela might be the most primed country in
the world for anti-American conspiracy theories . International relations theory doesn't talk a
lot about conspiracy thinking, but I've read up a bit on it, and I'd say post-Chavez Venezuela is
the perfect breeding ground. Indeed, the day of Chavez's death his vice president/anointed
successor was already accusing the United S tates of giving Chavez his cancer. Besides that,
here's a recipe for creating a political climate that is just itching to believe any wild-ass theory
involving a malevolent United S tates: 1) Pick a country that possesses very high levels of
national self-regard. 2) Make sure that the country's economic performance fails to match
expectations. 3) Create political institutions within the country that are semi-authoritarian or
authoritarian. 4) Select a nation with a past history of U.S. interventions in the domestic body
politic. 5) Have the United States play a minor supporting role in a recent coup attempt. 6) Make
sure the United States is closely allied with the enduring rival of the country in question. 7)
Inculcate a long history of accusations of nutty, American-led conspiracies from the political
elite. 8) Finally, create a political transition in which the new leader is desperate to appropriate
any popular tropes used by the previous leader. Venezuela is the perfect breeding ground for
populist, anti-American conspiracy theories. And once a conspiratorial, anti-American culture
is fomented, it sets like concrete . Only genuine political reform in Venezuela will cure it, and
I don't expect that anytime soon . Oh, and by the way: Those commentators anticipating a
post-Castro shift by Cuba toward the U.S., should run through the checklist above veeeery
carefully. Am I missing anything?


AT: Canadian Oil Sands Addon

Investment and production in Canadian Oil Sands already declining
Jones, 13 (5/24/2013, Jeffrey, Oil sands deals lose traction,
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/oil-
sands-deals-lose-traction/article12115969/, JMP)

Theres a buyers strike in the oil sands.
At least a half dozen energy companies have come up dry in efforts to attract the rich bids
they envisaged when they put oil sands assets on the auction block in the past year, showing
downward pricing pressure on a sector touted as the cornerstone of Canadas economic
growth. Would-be buyers and joint venture partners are balking at deals amid a combination
of wildly volatile Canadian crude prices, rising development costs and weakening returns, a
situation that could force the industry to temper heady expectations for long-term oil sands
production growth . Marathon Oil Corp., Murphy Oil Corp. and Athabasca Oil Corp. had sought
buyers and partners in the Northern Alberta oil sands, but now have changed their minds or in
Athabascas case, have told investors to hang tight after the company failed to clinch deals that
had once appeared imminent.
Those companies join ConocoPhillips Co., Koch Industries Inc. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC in being
disappointed after putting properties up for sale that may have once attracted bids totalling in
the billions of dollars. Those three say they have rethought their plans after offers failed to meet
expectations. Unsold assets are another indication that oil price uncertainty, competition for
limited pipeline capacity and high industry costs are turning away investment in the worlds
third-largest crude reserves after those in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. The deals slowdown
may also add to a pullback in the sectors spending and development frenzy.

Developing countries, lax regulation, and profit maximization means warming is
inevitable
Porter, 13 - writes the Economic Scene column for the Wednesday Business section (March
19, Eduardo, A Model for Reducing Emissions
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/20/business/us-example-offers-hope-for-cutting-carbon-
emissions.html?_r=1&)

Even if every American coal-fired power plant were to close , that would not make up for the
coal-based generators being built in developing countries like India and China. Since 2000, the
growth in coal has been 10 times that of renewables, said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS
Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy
Agency in Paris, points out that if civilization is to avoid catastrophic climate change, only
about one third of the 3,000 gigatons of CO2 contained in the worlds known reserves of oil,
gas and coal can be released into the atmosphere. But the world economy does not work as if
this were the case not governments, nor businesses, nor consumers. In all my experience
as an oil company manager, not a single oil company took into the picture the problem of
CO2, said Leonardo Maugeri, an energy expert at Harvard who until 2010 was head of strategy
and development for Italys state-owned oil company, Eni. They are all totally devoted to
replacing the reserves they consume every year.

Declining U.S. demand will also undermine production
Cushman, 13 (5/23/2013, John H. Cushman Jr., With U.S. Awash in Oil, Keystone Argument
Weakens, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-23/with-u-s-awash-in-oil-keystone-
argument-weakens.html, JMP)

Estimates of U.S. Oil Reserves Also Rise The U.S. government's striking new estimate of
domestic oil production is just one of the new developments that undermines the appeal of
Canada's crude oil. The United S tates Geological Survey in April doubled its official estimate
of recoverable oil reserves from the Bakken field and related deposits in North Dakota, South
Dakota and Montana, suggesting that the region's oil boom won't fall off as quickly as
previously assumed. "The finding could have major implications for future oil and gas industrial
activity in the region, particularly for pipeline companies," wrote Nathanial Gronewold, Houston
bureau chief for Environment & Energy Publishing.
Advocates of domestic oil production say more untapped oil is available on public lands.
Responding to the USGS's new estimates, Thomas Pyle, president of the pro-drilling Institute for
Energy Research said: "America's true energy supply is undoubtedly even more robust,
providing further certainty that domestic resources can meet America's energy needs for years
to come." That bullish tone ran through the EIA's latest short-term energy outlook, released on
May 7. It said it had revised upward its production forecast by 120,000 barrels a day this year
and by 310,000 barrels a day next year compared to the estimate it had made just a month
earlier. "Production will rise from an average of 7.1 million barrels a day in the first quarter of
2013 to 8.5 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter of 2014," it said. All that growth would
come before the Keystone could be completed, which TransCanada now says won't be until late
2015. Another sign of the market's upheaval is the possibility that refineries along the Gulf
Coast might consider switching from Canadian heavy sour crude to the light, sweet U.S.
grades. In its market analysis, the State Department assumed that refineries wouldn't willingly
make that switch and would continue importing heavy sour crude like Canada's. The Gulf
refineries have invested in plants that are tailored for that type of oil. But the EIA, in its May 1
issue of "This Week in Petroleum," said swollen supplies of domestic oil could hold down prices
so much that it would be attractive for refineries to switch. They could adjust the mix of fuels
they produce, or spend some of their profits to switch over to the lighter U.S. crude.
Oil Change International, an advocacy group that campaigns for shifting from oil to clean energy,
argues that the State Department's theory is already proving wrong because the leading Gulf
coast refiner, Valero, is looking for opportunities to increase its use of light crude. Valero buys
oil sands crude and is a big backer of the Keystone.
"The world has changed dramatically with all this light sweet oil," Valero's chief executive,
William Klesse, told a group of analysts at a conference last week. "If you were going to build a
grassroots refinery today," he said, "you would build a light-sweet refinery."
Ecosystems will adapt no impact
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change - Archived 8 March 11,
Surviving the Unprecedented Climate Change of the IPCC,
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2011/mar/8mar2011a5.html
(Citing: Willis, K.J., Bennett, K.D., Bhagwat, S.A. and Birks, H.J.B. 2010. 4C and beyond: what did
this mean for biodiversity in the past? Systematics and Biodiversity 8: 3-9.)

In a paper published in Systematics and Biodiversity, Willis et al. (2010) consider the IPCC (2007)
"predicted climatic changes for the next century" -- i.e., their contentions that "global
temperatures will increase by 2-4C and possibly beyond, sea levels will rise (~1 m 0.5 m), and
atmospheric CO2 will increase by up to 1000 ppm" -- noting that it is "widely suggested that the
magnitude and rate of these changes will result in many plants and animals going extinct," citing
studies that suggest that "within the next century, over 35% of some biota will have gone extinct
(Thomas et al., 2004; Solomon et al., 2007) and there will be extensive die-back of the tropical
rainforest due to climate change (e.g. Huntingford et al., 2008)." On the other hand, they
indicate that some biologists and climatologists have pointed out that "many of the predicted
increases in climate have happened before, in terms of both magnitude and rate of change
(e.g. Royer, 2008; Zachos et al., 2008), and yet biotic communities have remained remarkably
resilient (Mayle and Power, 2008) and in some cases thrived (Svenning and Condit, 2008)." But
they report that those who mention these things are often "placed in the 'climate-change
denier' category," although the purpose for pointing out these facts is simply to present "a
sound scientific basis for understanding biotic responses to the magnitudes and rates of climate
change predicted for the future through using the vast data resource that we can exploit in fossil
records." Going on to do just that, Willis et al. focus on "intervals in time in the fossil record
when atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased up to 1200 ppm, temperatures in mid- to
high-latitudes increased by greater than 4C within 60 years, and sea levels rose by up to 3 m
higher than present," describing studies of past biotic responses that indicate "the scale and
impact of the magnitude and rate of such climate changes on biodiversity." And what emerges
from those studies, as they describe it, "is evidence for rapid community turnover, migrations,
development of novel ecosystems and thresholds from one stable ecosystem state to
another." And, most importantly in this regard, they report "there is very little evidence for
broad-scale extinctions due to a warming world." In concluding, the Norwegian, Swedish and
UK researchers say that "based on such evidence we urge some caution in assuming broad-
scale extinctions of species will occur due solely to climate changes of the magnitude and rate
predicted for the next century," reiterating that "the fossil record indicates remarkable biotic
resilience to wide amplitude fluctuations in climate."

--- XT: No China War

No China conflict no military use
Alison & Blackwill 13 --- *director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
and Douglas Dillon Professor at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government AND **Henry
A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Graham
and Robert, 1/28/2013, "Beijing Still Prefers Diplomacy Over Force,"
http://www.cfr.org/china/beijing-still-prefers-diplomacy-over-force/p29892, GDI File)

As China has become a leading export market for its neighbours, it expects them to be " more
respectful ", in Mr Lee's words. In public statements, China usually downplays the advantages its size begets, but in a heated
moment at a 2010 regional security meeting, its foreign minister had a different message: "China is a big country and other countries
are small countries and that is just a fact." Mr Lee has a phrase for this message: "Please know your place." Unlike free-market
democracies, in which governments are unable or unwilling to squeeze imports of bananas from the Philippines or cars from Japan,
China's government can use its economic muscle. As tensions mount over competing claims for contested territories,
should we expect Beijing to use military force to advance its claims? From the perspective of the grand strategist,
the answer is no unless it is provoked by others. "China understands that its growth depends on
imports, including energy, and that it needs open sea lanes. They are determined to avoid the mistakes made
by Germany and Japan," Mr Lee says. In his view, it is highly unlikely that China would choose to
confront the US military at this point, since it is still at a clear technological and military
disadvantage. This means that, in the near term, it will be more concerned with using diplomacy, not
force, in foreign policy. Henry Kissinger, the western statesman who has spent most quality time with Chinese leaders in the past
four decades, offers a complementary perspective. As he has written, their approach to the outside world is best
understood through the lens of Sun Tzu, the ancient strategist who focused on the psychological weaknesses of the
adversary. "China seeks its objectives," Mr Kissinger says, "by careful study, patience and the accumulation of
nuances only rarely does China risk a winner-take-all showdown." In Mr Lee's view, China is playing a long
game driven by a compelling vision. "It is China's intention," Mr Lee says, "to be the greatest power in the world." Success in that
quest will require not only sustaining historically unsustainable economic growth rates but also exercising greater
caution and subtlety than it has shown recently, in order to avoid an accident or blunder that
sparks military conflict over the Senkakus, which would serve no one's interests.

Chinese leadership will pull back
Ross 1 (Robert S., Professor of Political Science Boston College, The National Interest, Fall,
Lexis, GDI File)

The strategic costs to China of a war with the United States are only part of the deterrence
equation. China also possesses vital economic interests in stable relations with the
United States. War would end China's quest for modernization by severely constraining its
access to U.S. markets, capital and technology, and by requiring China to place its
economy on permanent war-time footing. The resultant economic reversal would
derail China's quest for "comprehensive national power" and great power status. Serious
economic instability would also destabilize China's political system on account of the resulting
unemployment in key sectors of the economy and the breakdown of social order. Both would
probably impose insurmountable challenges to party leadership. Moreover, defeat in a war with
the United States over Taiwan would impose devastating nationalist humiliation on the Chinese
Communist Party. In all, the survival of the party depends on preventing a Sino-
American war.


--- AT: Price Increases for U.S.

Price increases will be short term and offset by other factors
Laten, 10 (8/3/2010, Grant, Venezuelan Oil Embargo Wouldnt Impact American Energy
Security, http://csis.org/blog/venezuelan-oil-embargo-wouldn%E2%80%99t-impact-american-
energy-security, JMP)

Despite having no measurable impact on trade volume, the transition away from Venezuelan
supply would temporarily increase the price Americans pay for oil, since stopgap supply would
have to be purchased at market rates and possibly transported longer distances. This price
increase would be partially offset, however, by market price drops due to the seasonal decline
in demand as fall approaches and the summer travel season closes. Fourth-quarter oil imports
are projected to be 510,000 barrels per day lower than the third-quarter, signaling a reduction
of roughly five percent. Unfortunately, the idling of Citgo facilities and the loss of related jobs
could slow the American post-recession economic recovery by cutting tax revenue and
contributing to the unemployment rate. Nevertheless, a Venezuelan oil embargo would have a
far more contained impact on the American economy than on Venezuelas economic and
social security something Chvez likely realizes.

--- AT: Colombia-Venezuela Conflict

Chance of conflict is small
Laten, 10 (8/3/2010, Grant, Venezuelan Oil Embargo Wouldnt Impact American Energy
Security, http://csis.org/blog/venezuelan-oil-embargo-wouldn%E2%80%99t-impact-american-
energy-security, JMP)

Despite the economic doom and gloom, the precipitating condition for a Venezuelan embargo
would be an armed conflict between Colombia and Venezuela, and the odds of that occurring
are slim. Chvez, who has long been known for his outspoken anxiety over American influence
and imperialism in the region, certainly realizes that he has the most leverage over public
opinion and, to a lesser extent, United States foreign policy, when he acts tough but tangibly
steers clear of American interests. With last years military cooperation agreement between
Bogot and Washington allowing the American military use of seven Colombian bases, Chvez
has become increasingly outspoken over supposed American takeover plans for Venezuela.
World energy markets, however, failed to react to this most recent embargo threat, signaling
their desensitization to feather ruffling in Caracas. The reality remains that the United S tates
intends to continue its symbiotic energy relationship with Venezuela, and that means
managing its interests in Colombia to ensure economic and political stability in the region.
Venezuela Port
Venezuela CP
The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela should:
sign the outstanding Bilateral Counternarcotics MOU addendum
activate the Container Inspection Facility at Puerto Cabello
That solves cooperation and drug trafficking
DOS 12 Embassy of the United States in Caracas(International Narcotics Control Strategy
Report 2012, 2012, http://caracas.usembassy.gov/news-events/reports/international-
narcotics-control-strategy/2012.html, Daehyun)

D. Conclusion During the year, Venezuela increased counternarcotics cooperation with Colombia
and continued to deport fugitives to the United States, Colombia, and other countries. The
United States remains prepared to deepen cooperation with Venezuela to help counter the
increasing flow of cocaine and other illegal drugs transiting Venezuelan territory. Cooperation
could be improved through a formal re-engagement between Venezuelan and U.S. law
enforcement agencies on counternarcotics issues and the signing of the outstanding Bilateral
Counternarcotics MOU addendum, which would provide funds for joint counternarcotics
projects and demand reduction programs. Cooperation could include counternarcotics and
anti-money laundering training programs for law enforcement and other officials to build
institutional capacity to fight narcotics trafficking. Such training would require the Venezuelan
government to permit law enforcement officials to participate in capacity-building programs
hosted by other countries. Cooperation could also improve Venezuelas port security and
reduce Venezuelas role as a major maritime drug transit country. Such cooperation could
involve the activation of the Container Inspection Facility at Puerto Cabello, which was
partially funded by the United States in 2004, and the Venezuelan governments participation
in the USCG's International Port Security Program. This program would help Venezuela assess
its major seaports and develop best practices for enhanced maritime security. Since the last
assessment in 2004, the Venezuelan government has denied requests by the United States to
return to conduct an updated assessment. These cooperative activities would increase the
exchange of information that could lead to arrests, help dismantle organized criminal
networks, aid in the prosecution of criminals engaged in narcotrafficking, and stem the flow of
illicit drugs transiting Venezuelan airspace, land, and sea.
The aff fails absent Venezuelan engagement
GAO 9 Government Accountability Office(U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with
Venezuela Has Declined, GAO, Jul, 2009, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09806.pdf,
Daehyun)

While Venezuela has its own counternarcotics initiatives and says it does not need U.S.
assistance, available data indicate that drug trafficking through Venezuela is increasing. At a
minimum, the lack of Venezuelan counternarcotics cooperation with the United States is a
significant impediment to the U.S. capacity to interdict drugs en route to the United States.
Moreover, if illegal armed groups continue to find safe haven in Venezuela and receive support
from Venezuela, the permissive atmosphere and lack of cooperation will likely adversely affect
the security gains made in Colombia since 2000. However, as Venezuelan officials have
repeatedly stated, Venezuela is caught between the worlds largest producer of cocaine
Colombiaand largest consumer of cocainethe United States. Nevertheless, absent greater
initiative by the Venezuelan government to resume counternarcotics cooperation with the
United States, U.S. efforts to address the increasing flow of cocaine through Venezuela will
continue to be problematic.
ISPS BAD
The ISPS fails ineffective, expensive and outdated
Kenney and Meyer 4 Council on Hemispheric Affairs research associates(Edward and
Lauren, ANTI-TERRORISM COSTS COULD BRING CARIBBEAN TO ITS KNEES, Aug 12, 2004,
http://www.coha.org/anti-terrorism-costs-could-bring-caribbean-to-its-knees/, Daehyun)

The International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) code deadline expired on July 1, severely dimming trade prospects throughout
the region. ISPS requires all ships and ports to comply with a series of strict security measures. Vessels in non-compliance are
refused entry into U.S. territorial waters; countries that fail to comply are now subject to trade embargos. Caribbean islands
have had great difficulty adhering to the new regulations due to their small size, limited
economies and chronic shortage of funds. For some Caribbean nations, the cost of compliance totals
over 100 million dollars annually. In October 2000, terrorists attacked USS Cole, a navy destroyer docked in Yemens
territorial waters. The bombing left seventeen sailors dead, revealing both the limited ability of the U.S. to protect its own naval
vessels even in a friendly port, and the ominous capability of terrorist organizations to successfully attack units of the worlds most
powerful navy. While sensitivity to terrorist activity has increased dramatically since the Cole incident, (largely as a result of
September 11), the shipping industryparticularly the Caribbean segment of itremains woefully unprepared for similar attacks in
the future. In contrast to airport security, the Bush administration, aside from some empty rhetoric and a few showcase programs,
has not made protecting Americas seaports a priority. Thus far, a modest 500 million dollars has been allocated to fund U.S.
maritime anti-terrorism measures, while 11.7 billion dollars have been allocated to secure national and international airports. While
funding to prevent maritime terrorism has been wholly inadequate, security requirements have increased for both U.S. and foreign
ports and vessels. The new rules emerged from the UN International Ship and Port Facility Security (ISPS) resolution requiring all
ships and ports to adopt standard security measures. Among other regulations, vessels must maintain a security expert on board, file
a written security analysis before embarking, include a detailed inventory of goods shipped and radio the port of destination 96
hours prior to arrival. In addition, all ships must display an identification code visible from the air. Port security measures under ISPS
are even stricter. The establishment of buffer zones denies access to unauthorized vessels, underwater cameras and sonic sensors
protect ports from submarine attacks and customs agents monitor the loading and unloading of goods to prevent the smuggling of
illegal weapons and drugs. Non-Compliance Brings Fateful Consequences In 2002, the U.S. Congress passed the Maritime
Transportation Security Act (MTSA), increasing penalties on vessels and ports that fail to comply with ISPS standards. The measure
mandates that the Coast Guard turn away or detain ships that are non-compliant with ISPS. In addition, the MTSA blacklists ports
that are not compliant. If a port fails to comply, the act would deliver a crippling blow to islands that depend on revenue generated
by the steady influx of tourists and cruise ship passengers. Despite the potential economic strain, Caribbean Central American Action
(C-CAA), an organization that has helped ports throughout the Caribbean comply with ISPS, considers the act a tough love
approach that encourages Caribbean ports to reform. For Caribbean shippers, failure to meet ISPS security measures carries dire
consequences. Since the majority of Caribbean exports are agricultural and often perishable (coffee, sugar and bananas), any delays
in shipping would be particularly devastating. If a port fails to meet the codes guidelines, the consequences are even greater due to
the likelihood of severe U.S. sanctions. With restricted sea trade, many islands that depend on imported fuel and food may suffer
from an extreme shortage of these essential commodities. According to C-CAA, non-compliance is not an option for Caribbean
ports. Fortunately, countries have rapidly recognized this potential crisis, and 89.5 percent of over 9,000 port security plans have
been approved by the International Maritime Association. Nonetheless, according to C-CAA, complications remain since compliance
requires maintaining *security standards+ forever (just like dieting to keep a certain bodyweight), which may be extremely difficult
for poor Caribbean nations to achieve. The High Cost of Security While maritime terrorism threats are real, so
are the costs of the new security measures. Neither Washington nor the Organization of Economic Cooperation
and Development (a group of developed nations) has spearheaded an initiative to help developing countries offset ISPSs
implementation costs. After already spending hundreds of millions of dollars on implementing ISPS
measures, Caribbean countries are now solely responsible for continuing to finance the
imposed regulations. Costs for particularly active trading countries like the Bahamas are
estimated to exceed 100 million dollars. If a country elects to meet the ISPS requirements,
funding for essential social programs will be severely decreased. Nonetheless, most countries have
concluded that the consequences will be even greater if they fail to comply. As Professor Griffith, a highly regarded Guyanese
researcher at the Florida International University, has noted, The ISPS code is of such that you have to ask yourself, can I afford to
meet the requirements, to comply? The answer of course is that you cant afford not to comply. Jennifer Gonzalez of the Trinidad
and Tobago Shipping Association agrees: There will be increasing demands on the ports for the maintenance of minimum
standards, but Trinidad must move beyond minimum standards if it aims to maintain its status as one of the Caribbeans most
important hubs. Ms. Gonzalez believes that stakeholders in Trinidad shipping will support the security measures because in the long
run, its in their best interest. Besides being prohibitively costly, ISPS illustrates the continued
existence of a cold war mentality within the White House. For example, the implementation
of top-tier underwater sonar and cameras may have been highly effective in countering
possible Soviet submarine attacks, but these measures do not cost-effectively prevent the
spread of illegal drugs and weapons. This advanced technology also fails to curb rampant
corruption among Caribbean officials, what C-CAA calls the root of seaport security vulnerabilities. By
blacklisting ports that fail to meet ISPS regulations and forcing islands with weak economies
to decrease funding for social programs, the U.S.-promoted security code may have negative,
destabilizing repercussions on the Caribbean, Americas so-called third border. These new
measures could further impoverish the islands and motivate the newly unemployed to join the wave of illegal immigrants arriving in
the U.S. This increased immigration would provide the perfect cover for would-be terrorists, thus bringing a potential crisis ever
closer. Despite serious flaws in the ISPS code and the potentially backbreaking costs involved, Washington has unflinchingly turned
away a growing number of Caribbean ships. Although initial results indicate that ISPS has been a model international achievement
due to the higher-than-expected compliance rates, the code may ultimately lead to a security breakdown
because poor countries are not compensated with financial assistance to help weather the
difficult transition. Furthermore, the ISPS code represents an outdated concept of security that
inadequately addresses current terrorist threats. Funds allocated for low-risk dangers might
instead be devoted toward easing compliance costs for struggling Caribbean nations.

ISPS Code has failed in most ports- no warrant of why Venezuela wont
Raymond 4 Associate Research Fellow in the Maritime Security
Programme at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological
University (Catherine, IDSS Commentaries, The Challenge of Improving Maritime Security
An assessment of the implementation of the ISPS Code and initial responses as to its
Effectiveness, 2004, mercury.ethz.ch/.../IDSSC62-2004CatherineZaraRaymond_.pdf )

Singapore was one of the success stories. Through close cooperation with the port operators and ship owners, its
port facilities and ships met the ISPS Code requirements by the 1st July 2004 deadline. In fact Singapore s container ships began to
be certified as ISPS compliantten months before the deadline. On the other hand, implementation of the Code
in Africa has been less successful. Only half of the countries in Africa to which the Code applies
have had their port facility plans approved. Former Soviet and Eastern European countries are
also lagging far behind in their implementation. Has the ISPS Code re duced maritime vulnerability? In theory,
compliance with the Code should reduce the vulnerability of port facilities and ships to maritime attacks by terrorists and pirates.
Reducing the vulnerability of ships to attack from pirates is particularly important in Southeast Asia,
which is home to one of the worlds busiest and economically valuable shipping lanes - the Straits
of Malacca, and also the worlds most pirate plagued nation - Indonesia. Pirate attacks in Indonesian waters, r armed robbery as it is
often referred to, account for a quarter of the global total. It has been estimated that across the globe, pirate attacks result in losses
of USD25 billion each year. However, according to evidence gathered by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), from its Piracy
Reporting Centre in Kuala Lumpur, while there has been a decrease in the number of pirate attacks reported worldwide in the first
nine months of 2004, it is still expected that attacks will spike towards the end of the year, due to the delay in the reporting of
attacks by some countries. Also, the number of casualties from pirate attacks has remained high. Thirty crewmembers have been
killed so far in 2004, as opposed to only twenty at this point last year.

Say No
Default to newest evidence --- Recent developments trump positive signals
originally sent by Maduro
Minaya 13 (Ezequiel, Venezuela Ends Attempt to Repair Diplomatic Relations With U.S., July
20, The Wall Street Journal,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323993804578618223346497776.html)//DLG

CARACASThe Venezuelan government has ended fledgling efforts to repair diplomatic relations
with Washington in protest of comments made earlier in the week by Samantha Power, the
nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, who grouped the South American country among nations carrying out a
"crackdown on civil society." Venezuela's foreign ministry released a statement late Friday that "categorically
rejected" Ms. Power's statement and criticized the State Department for backing U.S. President Barack
Obama's choice for envoy to the U.N. amid the controversy. The ministry statement said that steps that began last
month to normalize diplomatic ties between Washington and Caracas have been shelved. In June, Secretary of
State John Kerry met with his Venezuelan counterpart on the sidelines of the general assembly of the Organization of American
States held in Guatemala. The meeting brought together the most senior officials from the estranged countries since Mr. Obama
shook hands with Venezuela's then-leader Hugo Chvez in 2009. After the meeting between the top diplomats, both sides expressed
hope that more talks would follow aimed at repairing relations. The countries have not traded ambassadors since 2010. "With
the backing of the state department for the interventionist agenda presented by the
candidate for ambassador, Samantha Power, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela leaves for finished the
processes initiated in the conversations of Guatemala," Venezuela's foreign ministry statement said. During
her nomination hearing before the U.S. senate committee on foreign relations Wednesday, Ms. Power said that as ambassador to
the U.N., she would "stand up against repressive regimes, fight corruption, and promote human rights and human dignity." Part of
that battle meant "contesting the crackdown on civil society being carried out in countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela,"
she added, according to an official transcript. In a Friday briefing with reporters in Washington, State Department spokeswoman
Marie Harf called Ms. Power an "outstanding nominee," and added that "we fully stand by her." Relations between Caracas and
Washington have been strained since Mr. Chavez assumed the presidency in 1999. The fiery socialist called longtime U.S. foe Fidel
Castro his mentor and was among the loudest opponents of U.S. influence in the region, often referring to the U.S. as the "empire."
Mr. Chavez routinely accused the U.S. of plotting to overthrow his government and reserved some of his most scathing comments
for former U.S. President George W. Bush. Mr. Chavez died in March after a nearly two-year battle with cancer. Mr. Chavez's
political heir, recently elected President Nicols Maduro, has followed in the footsteps of his predecessor and aimed harsh rhetoric
at Washington, which angered the new leader by backing calls for a recount of his slim election victory in April. Despite the
campaign-trail saber-rattling directed toward the U.S., Mr. Maduro and his government sent signals hinting at hopes for
better relations with the U.S. that culminated in the June meeting with Mr. Kerry. Those hopes were seriously
jeopardized when Caracas stepped into the middle of the controversy surrounding U.S. National Security
Agency leaker Edward Snowden and offered him asylum in early July. Venezuela is widely seen as among Mr. Snowden's most
likely destinations.
Maduro says no Power and Snowden
AP 13 Associated Press (maduro demands retraction, July 18, 2013,
http://www.sacbee.com/2013/07/18/5577833/maduro-demands-retraction.html)//sawyer

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has lashed out at Washington's
U.N. ambassador-designate for what he called her "despicable" criticism of his government's
human rights record.Maduro demanded Thursday evening that the United States retract
Samantha Power's statement that Venezuela, along with Cuban, Iran and Russia, is guilty of a
"crackdown on civil society."Power spoke Wednesday during confirmation hearings before a
U.S. Senate committee.Hopes were raised for improved U.S.-Venezuelan ties in June when U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Elias Jaua met on the sidelines of
a regional summit and agreed to fast-track talks for resuming ambassadorial-level ties absent
since 2010.But prospects dimmed after Maduro later offered asylum to U.S. leaker Edward
Snowden.

AT: Econ motivation
Venezuela will never cave to the US, not even for their economy Snowden,
Iran and Russia proves
Ogrady 13 - Mary O'Grady also frequently published as Mary Anastasia O'Grady is an
editor of the Wall Street Journal and member of the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board since
2005, (Why Venezuela Offers Asylum to Snowden, July 7, 2013,
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324399404578590503856740838.html)//sawy
er

His offer of refuge to Mr. Snowden is most easily explained as an attempt to distract
Venezuelans from the increasingly difficult daily economic grind and get them to rally around
the flag by putting a thumb in Uncle Sam's eye. Yet there is something else.Venezuela has
reason to fear increasing irrelevance as North America becomes more energy independent. This
makes Iran crucial. Mr. Maduro may be trying to establish himself as a leader as committed to
the anti-American cause as was his predecessor, Hugo Chvez, who had a strong personal bond
with former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He also needs to establish his own place
in South American politics.Reaching out to Mr. Snowden is a way to send a message to the
world that notwithstanding Secretary of State John Kerry's feeble attempt at rapprochement
with Caracas last month, post-Chvez Venezuela has no intention of changing the course of the
Bolivarian revolution. Rather, as the economy of the once-wealthy oil nation deteriorates, Mr.
Maduro is signaling that Venezuela wants to become an even more loyal geopolitical ally and
strategic partner of Russia and Iran.

China will fill in for Venezuelas economy no reason to say yes
AVN 11 (China has invested over $30 billion in Venezuelan economy, 16/9/11,
http://www.avn.info.ve/contenido/china-has-invested-over-30-billion-venezuelan-
economy)//sawyer

Caracas, 16 Sep. AVN .- Through financial cooperation agreements with Venezuela, China has
invested over 30 billion dollars in conditions with high advantages for our country,
highlighted the Venezuelan Foreign Affairs minister, Nicolas Maduro.Maduro underscored that
strategic alliances between Caracas and Beijing do not put in risk our economy and it is almost
a miraculous financial relation. Main cooperation is managed with two funds: the Heavy Fund
and the Great Volume Fund.In addition, Maduro highlighted that there is an energy plan for the
next 10 to 15 years, including the construction of three refineries in China to process the extra
heavy oil extracted from the Venezuelan Orinoco Oil Belt.Chinese companies are already
working in the Belt and they have signed agreements for the construction of drills and other
kind of technologies.This is a very close relation, Maduro said.China has also contributed to
boost science and technology areas in Venezuela. For example, Venezuela launched his first
satellite in 2010 thanks to said alliance and it has been already agreed to launch a second
satellite and the construction of a small-scale satellite factory in the South American country.
AT: Drug Cooperation
Venezuela will say no --- wont cooperate on drugs with the U.S.
DOS 13 (2013 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, March 5, Bureau Of
International Narcotics And Law Enforcement Affairs,
http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2013/vol1/204052.htm#Venezuela)//DLG

C. National Goals, Bilateral Cooperation, and U.S. Policy Initiatives
The Venezuelan government has maintained only limited, case-by-case counternarcotics
cooperation with the United States since the cessation of formal cooperation with the U.S.
Drug Enforcement Administration in 2005. Since 2005, the United States has proposed that the
Venezuelan government sign an addendum to the 1978 U.S.-Venezuelan bilateral
counternarcotics MOU that would allow for expanded cooperation. Venezuelan officials
regularly made clear that Venezuela would neither sign a bilateral agreement nor cooperate
with the United States on counternarcotics. The Venezuelan government rarely shares
information with the United States on money laundering or drug trafficking. Since 2009, when
former Interior and Justice Minister El Aissami prohibited police officers from receiving training
abroad without the Ministry's prior approval, Venezuelan law enforcement authorities have
not participated in U.S.-sponsored counternarcotics training programs.
Bilateral cooperation with the United States in 2012 included of the deportation of Puerto Rican
Oscar Cali Martnez Hernndez to the United States. In 2012, Venezuela detained four
Colombian citizens who are wanted by the United States and deported all but one of them to
Colombia in November.

Ambassadors prerequisite to drug cooperation
Sullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-
9-13 (Mark, Hugo Chvezs Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations
Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAG

In the aftermath of the presidential election, there could be an opportunity for U.S.-
Venezuelan relations to get back on track. An important aspect of this could be restoring
ambassadors in order to augment engagement on critical bilateral issues, not only on anti-
drug, terrorism, and democracy concerns, but on trade, investment issues, and other
commercial matters. With Chvezs death and an upcoming presidential election, the 113th
Congress is likely to maintain its strong oversight on the status of human rights and democracy
in Venezuela as well as drug trafficking and terrorism concerns, including the extent of
Venezuelas relations with Iran.
AT: Chavezs death
Chavez death wont boost relations in the short-term theyll still say no
Sullivan, Latin America Specialist at the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of CRS, 4-
9-13 (Mark, Hugo Chvezs Death: Implications for Venezuela and U.S. Relations
Congressional Research Service, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42989.pdf) //JAG

While some observers contend that Chvezs passing and the beginning of a new political era in
Venezuela could ultimately lessen tensions in U.S.-Venezuelan relations, there is no
expectation that this will happen quickly. In fact, State Department officials have cautioned
that the upcoming electoral campaign could delay any forward movement in improving
bilateral relations.14 Just hours before Chvezs death on March 5, Vice President Maduro
announced that two U.S. military attachs were being expelled from Venezuela for reportedly
attempting to provoke dissent in the Venezuelan military and even appeared to blame Chvezs
sickness on the United States. State Department officials strongly denied the Venezuelan
charges regarding the attachs, and ultimately responded on March 11 by expelling two
Venezuelan diplomats (a consular official in New York and a second secretary at the Venezuelan
Embassy in Washington).15 Hostility toward the United States was often used by the Chvez
government as a way to shore up support during elections, and it appears that this is being
employed by the PSUV once again in the current presidential campaign. On March 20, 2013,
Foreign Minister Elias Jaua said that Venezuelan officials would no longer be talking about
improving U.S.-Venezuelan relations with Assistant Secretary of State Jacobson because of
comments that Jacobson had made in a Spanish newspaper; Jacobson had said that
Venezuelans deserve open, fair and transparent elections. A senior U.S. official reportedly said
that such bizarre accusations and behavior raises doubts over whether bilateral relations will
be able to be improved with a Maduro government.16 Another strange accusation by Maduro
is that two former U.S. State Department officials were plotting to kill Capriles and to blame it
on the Maduro government; the State Department strongly rejected the allegations of U.S.
government involvement to harm anyone in Venezuela.17 Looking ahead, some observers
contend that anti-Americanism could also be a means for PSUV leaders to mask internal
problems within Chavismo, and even could be utilized as a potential new PSUV government led
by Maduro deals with a deteriorating economy.
Relations
Alt cause - Snowden undermined fragile relations with Venezuela and killed
global credibility
Munoz 13 - Fellow in the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School,
Venezuelan journalist , Ph.D. in Hispanic American Literature and Culture at Rutgers (Boris,
VENEZUELAS VIEW OF THE SNOWDEN AFFAIR, July 23, The New Yorker,
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2013/07/venezuelas-view-of-the-
snowden-affair.html)//DLG

In Venezuela, there was a brief, bright moment when Edward Snowden, the N.S.A. leaker, was expected to
land suddenly at Simn Bolvar International Airport, jet-lagged and red-eyed but safe and sound and victorious.
His slipping out of Moscow and crossing the world would have been seen as a remarkable act of defiance
against the power of the American government. Venezuelan President Nicols Maduro had offered him
asylum after visiting Russia for the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, at the beginning of July. He declared that Snowden had done
nothing wrong and was being subjected to a crazy manhunt by the United States authorities, and promised to protect him once he
arrived in Caracas. It is probably no accident that Maduro made the announcement on July 5th, Venezuelas independence day.
Domestic critics argued that Maduro should have given priority to repairing the countrys
relationship with the United States, damaged after long years of quarreling under his predecessor, the late Hugo
Chvez, particularly after both countries withdrew their ambassadors in 2010. Others speculated that a heros
welcome for Snowden would give a much-needed boost to Maduros popularity. It was also
suggested that Snowden would be exchanged for Luis Posada Carriles, a terrorist of Cuban extraction now living in Miami, who
Venezuela has been seeking to extradite for blowing up a Cubana Airlines plane in 1976, killing seventy-three people. Or that the
Cubans would get their hands on him, and then exchange him for the remaining four members of the Cuban Fiveagents convicted
in Florida for espionage. Laureano Mrquez, a prominent comedian and opposition columnist, wrote that Maduro had expelled the
filmmaker Tim Tracy, accusing him without evidence of being a spy for the C.I.A., in order to bring in Snowden, a full-time, real spy.
The impact Snowdens presence might have on the relationship between the United States and Venezuela was a constant topic of
discussion for both Chavistas and the opposition. Speculation about possible U.S. retaliations ran from cancelling the visas of high-
level officials to stopping purchases of Venezuelan oil. Theres no doubt that Snowden would have been a valuable asset for the
Venezuelan government, which is seeking to legitimize itself after elections in April were questioned by the opposition, and which
has lost much of the glow and potency Chvez conferred to it. But after keeping Venezuela waiting for a formal reply, Snowden, who
has now been languishing for a month in Moscows Sheremetyevo Airport, made the surprise announcement that he will stay in the
land of Pussy Riotand Putinuntil the conditions for his journey are more favorable. At that, the Snowden case disappeared
almost instantaneously from Venezuelan media, enveloped in the most rotund official silence. Several government officials asked for
comment said that the only people authorized to speak about the case were the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Elas Jaua, and Maduro
himself. Last Thursday, the newspaper ABC de Espaa disclosed that Secretary of State John Kerry had called Jaua on Friday, July
12th, to talk about the Venezuelan offer. The newspaper described Kerrys tone as intimidating, and said that the Secretary of State
had threatened Jaua with bold actions against Venezuela if the asylum materialized. Among other things, these steps would include
stopping the sale of gasoline and other oil derivatives from Venezuela and suspending U.S. visas for diplomats, officials, and
businessmen. On Friday, an unnamed State Department source told the D.P.A. news agency that, indeed, there had
been a call, but that it was completely untrue that Kerry had bullied Jaua or given details
about possible sanctions. The Venezuelan governments silence was regarded as an implicit
acknowledgement that the issue is too delicate to risk any miscalculation that might worsen
the impasse. The fragile truce was broken when Obamas nominee for United Nations ambassador,
Samantha Power, promised before a Senate committee last Wednesday that she would stand
up against repressive regimes and the crackdown on civil society being carried out in
countries like Cuba, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The remarks infuriated Maduro, who, in a full bravado,
responded, As president, my policy is zero tolerance for any attacks the Gringos make on
Venezuela. Im not going to tolerate any sort of aggression against Venezuelaverbal, political, or
diplomatic. Thats enough! You there with your empire. No more meddling with Venezuela. Venezuela, he said, was suspending
ongoing talks to improve relations with the U.S. He also reaffirmed his willingness to give asylum to Snowden,
since the right to asylum is an international humanitarian right, and Venezuela has always
respected it. Maduro, that is to say, found it more convenient to step back to the previous
status quo than to move forward and regularize the relations. By doing so, he can claim that he cares
enough about the nationalistic values Chvez so firmly defended. As of Friday night, a source close to the
Maduro government said that it was highly unlikely that Snowden would go to VenezuelaHes not coming here. Snowdens
uncertain fate, however, has serious implications for U.S. relations, not just with Venezuela but
with many other countries, especially Russia. Snowden might feel that Russias strength would provide him with better security than
Venezuela, as though he were protected by one of the big boys. It might be a glaring paradox to be sheltered by a government that
suppresses freedom of the press and civil rights, but his options are constrained. And, of course, Russias asylum would spare him
from the prosecution and imprisonment that Bradley Manning, for example, has faced. There is more than one set of
contradictions. The Snowden affair has made evident the U.S. disposition to twist arms. But
will other countries be eager to accede to an insistence that they help chase down Snowden
now that America is known to have conducted massive surveillance programs all around the
world? What is striking, in Venezuela and elsewhere, is how enmeshed Snowdens fate is with
the complexities of Americas relations with the rest of the world. Asylum offers from Venezuela and a
number of other Latin American countries were on the table as a response to a clumsy effort to re-route the President of Bolivias
planein the belief that Snowden was on-boardbut also to the disclosure that a number of them, too, had been subject to U.S.
espionage. The Obama Administrations advantage is its ability to pressure governments;
Snowdens comes at the moment when those countries start to mind.
Diplomatic relations will be inevitably rocky --- Venezuela continually cuts off
ties
Neuman 13 Andes Region correspondent (William, Venezuela Stops Efforts to Improve U.S.
Relations, July 20, New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/world/americas/venezuela-stops-efforts-to-improve-us-
relations.html?_r=1&)//DLG

CARACAS, Venezuela Venezuela announced late Friday that it was stopping the latest round
of off-again-on-again efforts to improve relations with the United States in reaction to
comments by the Obama administrations nominee for United Nations ambassador. The
nominee, Samantha Power, speaking before a Senate committee on Wednesday, said part of
her role as ambassador would be to challenge a crackdown on civil society in several
countries, including Venezuela. President Nicols Maduro had already lashed out on Thursday
at Ms. Power for her remarks, and late on Friday the Foreign Ministry said it was terminating
efforts to improve relations with the United States. Those efforts had inched forward just last
month after Secretary of State John Kerry publicly shook hands with the Venezuelan foreign
minister, Elas Jaua, during an international meeting in Guatemala one of the highest-level
meetings between officials of the two countries in years. Venezuela will never accept
interference of any kind in its internal affairs, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement, adding
that it considered terminated the process begun in the conversations in Guatemala that had as
their goal the regularization of our diplomatic relations. Relations with Venezuela have long
been troubled , although the country has remained a major supplier of oil to the United States.
Under the previous president, Hugo Chvez, a longtime nemesis of the United States, relations
were bumpy, especially after the Bush administration tacitly supported a coup that briefly
ousted him. Mr. Maduro, Mr. Chvezs handpicked successor, has given mixed messages about
relations with the United States. In March, when Mr. Maduro was vice president, he kicked out
two American military attachs, accusing them of seeking to undermine the government. After
he was elected in April, he ordered the arrest of an American documentary filmmaker whom
officials accused of trying to start a civil war. The filmmaker, Tim Tracy, was later expelled from
the country. And in recent days, in a sharp escalation of the war of words with Washington,
Mr. Maduro has said he would give asylum to Edward J. Snowden, the former American
intelligence contractor who leaked secrets about American intelligence programs and is staying
at a Moscow airport. The United States and Venezuela have not had ambassadors in each
others capitals since 2008, when Mr. Chvez expelled the American envoy, accusing the United
States of backing a group of military officers he said were plotting against him. The United States
responded at the time by expelling Venezuelas ambassador. In the Guatemala meeting, Mr.
Kerry said he hoped the two countries could rapidly move toward exchanging ambassadors
again. But those talks never had time to gain traction. On July 12, Mr. Kerry telephoned Mr.
Jaua to express concern over the asylum offer to Mr. Snowden. This is not the first time that
Venezuela has backed off the idea of renewed relations with the United States. The two
countries quietly began talks late last year aimed at improving relations, although those
ground to a halt after the health of Mr. Chvez, who had cancer, deteriorated in December.
After Mr. Chvezs death in March, a State Department official said the United States hoped
that the election to replace him would meet democratic standards prompting Mr. Jaua to
angrily announce that Venezuela was halting the talks between the two countries. Venezuelan
officials have repeatedly said relations with the United States should be conducted on a basis
of respect.
AT: Port Security

US has provided Venezuela with port security assistance before
GAO 9 Government Accountability Office (U.S. Counternarcotics Cooperation with
Venezuela Has Declined, GAO, Jul, 2009, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09806.pdf,
Daehyun)

The United States supported Venezuelan port security through the provision of X-ray
machines and ion scanners to detect and interdict drugs at seaport, airport, and land border
points of entry and exit. As part of the seaport security program, INL funded a modern
Container Inspection Facility (CIF) at Puerto Cabello, Venezuela's largest commercial seaport
and a known embarkation point for multi-ton cocaine shipments to the United States. The CIF
included a high-tech X-ray system, forklifts, tools, and safety equipment that would allow
Venezuelan authorities to examine high-threat shipping containers and their contents in a
secure environment.

Operations of PDVSA are in coordination with ISPS to combat drug trafficking
PDVSA 12 Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A Government of Venezuela (PDVSA, It was detected
the presence of alleged drug in oil tanker,
1/3/12, http://www.pdvsa.com/index.php?tpl=interface.en/design/salaprensa/readnew.tpl.ht
ml&newsid_obj_id=9960&newsid_temas=1)

Barcelona. To maintain safety regulations and ensure the optimal development of maritime
operations at Terminal Storage and Shipping of Oil Jose Antonio Anzotegui (TAECJAA), the
Personal for Protection and Loss Control (PCP ) along with officials of the Bolivarian National
Guard (GNB) detected the presence of five packages of suspected drug and two unauthorized
persons on board (cops) on a ship registered under the flag of the Bahamas. The alleged
discovery of illicit substances was made during the inspection that strictly holds for the
unmooring of tankers in the TAECJAA, adjusted to international ISPS code (International Ship
and Port Facility Security), which is subscribed Venezuela, which provides for preventive
measures to counter security vulnerabilities in shipping and port facilities in the world. This
action was carried out with the GNB on the boat Kareela Spirit loaded with 550 Mbls of Hamaca
crude, docked at the pier south of TAECJAA, and following the protocol of action was
immediately notified the news to the authorities with jurisdiction over drug that initiated the
investigation. Note that the inspection is performed on a mandatory basis in all boats , by PCP
staff of PDVSA and the Bolivarian National Guard, using drug dogs and anti-explosives that
cover all installations of tankers, as well as divers underwater structure with highly trained
for such operations. Early detection of these crimes is due to the provision of a robust security
and protection of facilities, ensuring that operations of PDVSA Socialist are running attached
to the international agreements signed by Venezuela in the fight against drug trafficking.

AT: Drugs Internal Link

Weak foreign policy towards Venezuela worsens the drug warhardline stance
is needed
Walser 11 --- Ph.D., a Senior Policy Analyst at The Heritage Foundation (Ray, Weakness on
Chavez, Drugs and Terror Plague Obamas Latin America Policy, The Heritage Foundation, 5/10,
http://blog.heritage.org/2011/05/10/weakness-on-chavez-drugs-and-terror-plague-obamas-
latin-america-policy/)//BJ

The record will show that the May 9 extradition by Colombia of Walid
Makled Garcia to Venezuela constitutes a major lost opportunity for the
Obama Administration to interrogate and prosecute a Venezuelan drug
kingpin with close ties to high-level Venezuelan officials and to expose the depth of
narco-corruption within the Hugo Chavez regime in Venezuela. Makleds extradition
follows the decision by Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and the Colombian
courts to honor the Venezuelan request for extradition over a similar request made by
the U.S. In exchange for Makled, the Colombians are banking on closer commercial and
security ties, including reduced support for the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia
(FARC), with the imperious and unpredictable Chavez. The relationship between Chavez
and the narco-terrorists of the FARC is again the subject of careful international scrutiny
following release of a detailed examination and analysis of links between the FARC and
Venezuela by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The
study includes the most complete set of documents recovered from the laptop of Raul
Reyes, the FARCs chief of staff, who was killed during a daring military strike by
Colombian forces in March 2008 in his safe haven on Ecuadors soil. The study reviews
the long record of collaboration by Chvez and his top confidants with the FARC, which
they viewed as an ally that would keep U.S. and Colombian military strength in the
region tied down in counterinsurgency, helping to reduce perceived threats against
Venezuela. The return of Makled to Venezuela and the release of the IISS
study are important reminders of the serious regional security threat posed
by the Chavez regime, a threat the Obama Administration has routinely
downplayed. The persistent Chavez threat prompted the introduction for debate and
passage on May 4 of H.R. 247, which reviews Chavezs record of support for terrorism
and (1) condemns the Government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela for its state-
sponsored support of international terrorist groups; (2) calls on the Secretary of State to
designate Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism; and (3) urges increased and
sustained cooperation on counter-terrorism initiatives between the Government of the
United States and allies in the region. Placing Chavez on the list of state
sponsors of terrorism is a measure that is long overdue. Overall, the highly
contentious nature of the U.S.Chavez relationship is also being increasingly
documented in further releases of cables from the U.S. embassy in Caracas. Following
President Obamas trip to Latin America, the Administration has moved into reorganize
mode as the State Departments Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Arturo
Valenzuela recently announced that he is returning to academia later this summer.
During Valenzuelas nearly two-year tenure at State, improvements in regional policy for
the Western Hemisphere have been difficult to identify, as Chavez appeared to run
roughshod over the region with little reaction from the Administration. Former
Foreign Policy editor Moises Naim described U.S. policy for Latin America
as well-sounding, well-meaning, but clich-ridden and, ultimately,
irrelevant.
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (RFL), chair of the House Foreign
Affairs Committee, did not mince words. She argued that Valenzuelas time
at State has been marked by abject failure by the U.S. to stand up to the
attacks against democracy and fundamental freedoms. U.S. interests have
suffered as a result.


AT: West Africa
Spare capacity solves oil shocks their authors hide numbers**
Gholz, Professor Public Affairs UT Austin, and Press, Professor Gov Dartmouth, 13 (Eugene
and Daryl, February, Enduring Resilience: How Oil Markets Handle Disruptions Security
Studies, Vol 22 Issue 1, p 139-147, T&F Online)//JAG

Cartels like OPEC create incentives for their members to keep untapped supply off the market;
cartel leaders in particular enforce discipline by keeping pumping capacity in reserve and
threatening to flood the market if cartel members greatly exceed their quotas. The result, as
history repeatedly shows, is that when oil disruptions occur, ample spare capacity is available
to fill the shortfall, and the lure of profit draws that spare capacity onto the market. 2 In
addition, many of the world's major oil-consuming countries hold large government-controlled
stockpiles, and private companies keep large inventories that they can tap in a crisis (to make
money). 3 The world is not perched on an energy precipice; plenty of oil is available to rapidly
respond to disruptions. Levi argues that we overstate the flexibility of oil markets. Although he
concedes that OPEC has functioned as we claim for several decades, 4 he worries that the future
will be radically different, specifically that the cartel has recently discovered a way to restrain
output without maintaining spare capacity. Levi suggests that cartel members now restrict their
output by simply under-investing in pumping infrastructure rather than building capacity that
they plan not to use. Levi supports his contention by noting the drop in OPEC's spare capacity
starting in the middle of the past decade. Furthermore, he suggests three other factors that
might contribute to declining spare capacity: the rising cost of finding new oil fields (i.e., a
version of the peak oil argument), a decline in Saudi Arabia's desire to be seen as a
responsible contributor to the international economic order, and a fraying U.S.-Saudi
relationship. We disagree with Levi's critique for both theoretical and empirical reasons. First,
his claim that OPEC no longer needs spare capacity contradicts the fundamentals of cartel
mechanics. Cartels still face a collective action problem: members benefit if others stick to their
quotas, but each member can increase its own profits by cheating. Levi claims that this
perennial problem of cartel management is no longer a concern for OPEC, because most of its
members are already producing at maximum capacity and therefore physically cannot cheat.
But Levi is making a logical leap: even if many OPEC members are producing flat out, one
cannot assume that they are respecting their quotas. Cartel members do not typically
announce when they cheat, and publicly available production data are not a good guide to
cheating in the cartel. Furthermore, if cartel leaders do not maintain sufficient spare capacity to
punish cheating, why will members refrain from building extra capacity to allow them to cheat
in the future? The point is that cheating is a major concern for OPEC's leaders, as it always has
been. Cartel leaders therefore still need spare capacity, just as they have in the past. 5 Nor
does the empirical evidence support Levi's claims that depletion, or some policy shift, has
caused OPEC to abandon its long-term policy of maintaining spare capacity. Spare capacity is
difficult to measure, because countries (and privately held companies) guard information about
their reserves and investments zealously. Nevertheless, Figure 1 shows two sets of estimates of
spare capacity held by OPEC countries since 1994, produced by the U.S. Department of Energy
and by the International Energy Agency. The figure reveals that spare capacity did not
gradually decline over the past decade as one might expect if the decline were the result of
gradual geological depletion (i.e., peak oil) or fraying of U.S.-Saudi relations. Rather, it
plummeted in 20022003 when two major disruptions caused OPEC producers to tap their
spare capacity: OPEC replaced the oil disrupted by Venezuela's oil strikes (20022003) and by
the invasion of Iraq (2003). The lesson of 20022003 is not that spare capacity is disappearing.
The lesson is that spare capacity was used to respond to supply disruptionsexactly as our
theory predicts. In the years that followed, the global economy grew rapidly, so demand for oil
soared in the United States, China, India, and other major economies. OPEC's slack capacity
stayed relatively low for several years because even as OPEC members developed new capacity
to recreate their normal buffer, economic growth kept shifting the goalposts. And the fear
among OPEC members that some of the rapid demand growth was actually a bubblefear that
turned out to be well-foundedconstrained the pace of OPEC members' oil infrastructure
investments. Naturally, when the bubble popped with the 2008 financial crisis, spare capacity
suddenly returned to the oil market. More disruptions have occurred since 20022003, and
each time oil markets responded as our theory suggests: by tapping spare capacity to replace
lost oil. The civil war in Libya denied world markets roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.
OPEC responded rapidly by turning spare capacity into actual production, replacing the Libyan
oil almost immediately . What is perhaps most striking about oil supplies and spare capacity
over the past decade is that despite the ongoing use of what would otherwise be millions of
barrels per day of spare capacityto make up for Iraq's depressed oil production and to
replace Libyan exportsthe United States and its oil allies are still sufficiently confident that
there is ample spare capacity to try to cut off Iran's oil exports. What of the future? Neither
the U.S. Department of Energy nor the International Energy Agency agree with Levi that spare
capacity is drying up. 6 In fact, some analysts hope that Iraq, infused with new investment, will
see its oil production soar, and Libyan production may soon rebound. Today, without access to
much Iraqi or Libyan oil, there is plenty of capacity; if their oil industries recover, the world will
truly be awash in spare oil capacity. The bottom line from the data is that the fluctuation in
spare capacity over the past decadewhich Levi uses to refute our claimsactually provides
the strongest possible support for our argument. Spare capacity has dipped repeatedlybut
not because of peak oil or because OPEC is no longer concerned with cheating. Rather, spare
capacity has repeatedly dipped in the past decade because oil markets turned spare capacity
into active capacity whenever disruptions occurred. To be clear, we do not argue that spare
capacity to pump oil will always be high. It will vary according to economic conditions and the
level of trust among cartel members. Nor do we put too much stock in the exact estimates of
spare capacity that Levi citesor that we use in Figure 1because, as we noted above, oil-
producing states and firms hide the truth. But the data reveal the general pattern if not precise
details. And Levi and we rely on the same data, and they support our theory and undermine his
critique. The broader point for U.S. foreign policy is that given the 1.4 billion barrels of oil in
U.S. and allied government-controlled stockpiles, given the huge commercial stocks in storage
tanks around the world, and given OPEC's spare capacity, it is hard to justify a large forward
military presence in the Persian Gulf on the basis of the erroneous notion that the world's
energy supplies are balanced on a knife's edge.
AT: FARC Module
FARC is weak and have no political capital squo solves
Felbab-Brown 12 - senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in
the Foreign Policy program at Brookings(Vanda, FIGHTING THE NEXUS OF ORGANIZED CRIME
AND VIOLENT CONFLICT WHILE ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY, Apr 19, 2012,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/4/19%20drugs%20instability%
20felbabbrown/0419_drugs_instability_felbabbrown.pdf, Daehyun)

Colombia today provides a clear example. Without doubt, the legitimacy of the leftist guerrilla
group, the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia [FARC]) is, after decades of conflict, at an all-time low. The sources of this decline of
political capital are multiple. The political ideology of the group is largely moribund both as a
result of global changes and the decline of socialist ideologies as well as the aging and
isolation of the FARCs intellectual leadership.8 The FARC today is under severe pressure from
the Colombian military. The brutality of the guerrilla group toward the rural population has
progressively increased in the 1990s and 2000s as it competed with rightist paramilitaries. At
the same time, the group systematically failed to protect the rural and urban populations
against coercion and massacres by the equally and perhaps even more brutal paramilitary
groups. Finally, as a result of the demise of the Medelln and Cali cartels in the mid-1990s and
the growth in strength of the FARC due to its progressive penetration of the drug trade, the
leadership decided to eliminate many traffickers from the territories it controlled and take
over their trafficking roles in those territories.9 By doing so, the group inadvertently
eliminated a key source of its political capital. Instead of bargaining on behalf of the cocaleros
(coca farmers) for better prices for coca paste and mitigating and regulating other forms of the
traffickers abuse against the cocaleros as it used to do in the 1980s and early 1990s when
independent traffickers were present,10 the FARC put itself in the position of the brutal
monopolist that sets prices, limits the customers to whom the population can sell coca paste
and base, and inflicts abuse on the rural population.11

FARC is not a threat no Middle East connections
Felbab-Brown 12 - senior fellow with the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence in
the Foreign Policy program at Brookings(Vanda, FIGHTING THE NEXUS OF ORGANIZED CRIME
AND VIOLENT CONFLICT WHILE ENHANCING HUMAN SECURITY, Apr 19, 2012,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/4/19%20drugs%20instability%
20felbabbrown/0419_drugs_instability_felbabbrown.pdf, Daehyun)

Clearly, the United States has an interest in Colombias enhanced security, prosperity, and
human rights promotion. But that countrys violent armed groups have not greatly threatened
U.S. security interests beyond the FARCs shooting at spraying planes and oil pipelines
belonging to U.S. companies. The three U.S. contractors held by the FARC went through a
terrible ordeal, and their rescue in 2008 was a joyful moment. But overall, neither the FARC nor
the other leftist guerrilla group, the Ejrcito de Liberacin Nacional (National Liberation Army
[ELN]), have sought to conduct a terrorist campaign against U.S. citizens and major U.S. assets
or attack the U.S. homeland. Allegations of al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah contacts with the
FARC or these groups penetration of the Latin American drug trade have not proven to be a
serious menace.26

AT: Europe
EU FTA solves economic growth
ICTSD, 2-6-13 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, Questions
Linger As EU, US Consider Launching Trade Talks Bridges Weekly, http://ictsd.org/i/trade-and-
sustainable-development-agenda/153479/)//JAG

Top officials from both the US and EU have been meeting over the past week to discuss the
possibility of launching bilateral trade talks, leaving observers and analysts to speculate
whether the long-awaited announcement might soon be on the horizon. However, questions
remain over whether the two sides will be able to resolve long-standing differences that have
blocked such negotiations in the past. EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht spent Wednesday
in Washington meeting with his counterpart - US Trade Representative Ron Kirk - with the goal
of putting the finishing touches on a joint report by the EU-US High-Level Working Group on
Jobs and Growth, which is expected to include recommendations regarding the potential
negotiations. However, these efforts ultimately did not succeed, leaving the release date of the
report up in the air. An interim report released in June had found that a broad, comprehensive
bilateral deal was the option with greatest potential for supporting jobs and fostering
economic growth in both trading partners. (See Bridges Weekly, 27 June 2012) While the EU
trade chief has said in recent weeks that the final report - which was originally expected in
December - is nearly ready, the repeated delays have appeared to indicate that Washington
might still have concerns. We only want to move forward if we are confident that Europeans
are as serious as we are about tackling issues that have tripped us up before, Mike Froman - a
trusted Obama adviser who serves as US Deputy National Security Advisor for International
Economic Affairs - told the Financial Times on Tuesday, adding that Washington does not want
to end up mired in protracted negotiations without an end in sight. The two sides have long
sparred over issues such as regulations and standards, which stymied efforts to deepen bilateral
trade ties in the past. The US and EU currently trade 700 billion annually in goods and services;
while already having low tariffs between them, experts note that the lowering of non-tariff
barriers and reconciliation of different regulatory regimes could have a significant impact on
the volume of bilateral trade. As part of Brussels efforts to show Washington that it has the
political will needed to address some of these tough topics, the EU decided on Monday to lift its
ban on imports of live pigs and of beef carcasses cleaned with lactic acid, while ultimately
leaving in place another agricultural barrier - restrictions on imports of a US animal fat known as
tallow - that Washington has taken issue with. Leaders from the EUs 27 member states,
meeting as the European Council, are slated to discuss the proposed negotiations on Thursday;
whether the joint working groups report would be ready in time for the gathering was unclear
as Bridges went to press on Wednesday evening. With US President Barack Obama set to deliver
the annual State of the Union address next Tuesday - the speech in which he outlines his
administrations policy goals for the rest of the year - trade observers are watching to see if a
decision might be made in time for the high-level event. Biden: Talks within our reach Despite
these questions, top political officials from both sides have continued to advocate for the
benefits that this type of trade deal might provide. During a five-day trip to Europe, US Vice
President Joe Biden said that such an initiative could have huge potential for the worlds
largest trading relationship, particularly given the recent economic and financial struggles that
both the EU and US are working to overcome. Now, just imagine what we can do as we get our
respective houses in order, Biden told a Munich audience on Friday. Already, Europe is
Americas largest economic partner, and the numbers are staggering - over US$600 billion in
annual trade that creates and sustains millions of jobs on the continent and at home, and a
US$5 trillion overall commercial relationship. Acknowledging the two sides long-standing
differences on issues such as regulations and standards - which continue to divide us - Biden
stressed that the remaining question is whether there is sufficient political will to resolve these
disagreements. If so, we should pursue a trans-Atlantic partnership. And if we go down that
road, we should try to do it on one tank of gas and avoid protracted rounds of negotiations. This
is within our reach, the US Vice President urged, noting that the rewards for successfully
reaching such an agreement are almost boundless. Speaking ahead of her meeting with
Biden, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also expressed her personal wish for progress in the
bilateral trade talks. There are positive signs, she said, in comments reported by Reuters,
adding that she was grateful that this has also been placed on the Obama administrations
agenda.
AT: Colombia
Instability is inevitable but wont escalatemilitary conflict is empirically
denied
Perez-Linan, prof @ Pitt, 7 [Anbal Prez-Lin is associate professor of political science at the
University of Pittsburgh, Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin
America,
http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780521178495&ss=fro]

The 1990s were an era of great hopes for Latin America. After the demise of authoritarian
regimes in the 1980s and the early 1990s, major economic reforms were undertaken in most
Latin American countries in order to reduce chronic inflation and promote sustained growth. For
many contemporary observers, the confluence of democracy and free markets signaled a break
with the past, the dawn of a new era of civil liberties, prosperity, and political stability. More
than a decade later, it is hard to look back at this period without a mixture of nostalgia and
sarcasm. The legacies of the 1990s varied from country to country, but they can be generally
described as notable achievements overshadowed by missed opportunities. In the economic
realm, hyperinflation was eventually defeated, but economic growth remained elusive and
poverty resilient. In the political arena, the military eventually withdrew from politics (not a
minor feat), but elected governments, surprisingly, continued to collapse. Starting in the early
1990s, presidents were removed from office in Brazil, Venezuela, Guatemala, Ecuador,
Paraguay, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia in some countries recurrently. This outcome frequently
represented the triumph of an indignant society over a corrupt or abusive executive, but it
seldom prevented the occurrence of new abuses in later administrations. By the early years of
the twenty-first century, it was clear that the particular circumstances of each crisis represented
only parts of a broader puzzle a new pattern of political instability emerging in the region. This
book explores the origins and the consequences of this novel pattern of instability, emphasizing
the critical events that defined the new trend between 1992 and 2004. During this period,
civilian elites realized that traditional military coups had become for the most part unfeasible
and experimented with the use of constitutional instruments to remove unpopular presidents
from office. Presidential impeachment thus became a distinctive mark of the new political
landscape in Latin America. The recurrence of presidential crises without democratic
breakdown challenged many dominant views among political scientists. Latin American
democracies proved to be simultaneously enduring and unstable, willing to punish presidential
corruption but unable to prevent it, and responsive to popular demands only in the context of
massive protests and widespread frustration. My attempts to understand these facts initially
relied on well-delimited theoretical perspectives that proved rather disappointing, and I was
forced to embark on a long exploration across the disciplinary boundaries of political sociology,
communication, political behavior, institutional analysis, democratization, and the study of
social movements. Others who have studied these topics more thoroughly than I may be
reluctant to recognize their subject in the chapters that follow, but I hope that they will forgive
my intrusion. In the course of this exploration I have wandered through the academic fields of
many colleagues and collected a large number of intellectual debts along the way.
FARC Declining Now
Valencia, research fellow @ the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, 12
(Robert, July 3, pg. http://yalejournal.org/2012/07/colombia-and-farc-will-the-internal-conflict-
reach-an-end/)

Though FARC still poses some degree of threat to the Colombian population, the revolutionary
force no longer has the clout it possessed decades ago. The deaths of its rank and file
members, its dwindling military power, and mounting rejection from Colombians leave little
option for FARC but to reach a peaceful yet uneasy end to the conflict. Otherwise, the Santos
administrationand perhaps ensuing administrationswill continue using cutting-edge
weaponry that has so damaged FARC while utilizing civilian means to encourage guerrilleros
to leave the organizations ranks and reintegrate into Colombian society.
Navy will never be challenged
Rubinovitz, Post-Doc Fellow Davis Institute for International Relations, 12 (Ziv, July, The US
vs. the East Asian rising powers: Can the US stay on top? 22nd IPSA World Congress,
http://rc41.ipsa.org/public/Madrid_2012/rubinovitz.pdf)//JAG

Moreover, the U.S. is still and will remain in the foreseeable future the naval superpower
with the most powerful navy that has the best power-projection capabilities. It can afford to
leave the continent and become an offshore balancer. True, it will lose some of its influence, but
it can preserve its power on the sea and project it restrictedly whenever needed. So, very
briefly, the U.S. has a much wider room for maneuver than is presumed, and with the most
powerful military with no parallel in the foreseeable future, the U.S. still has a wide spectrum
of policies it can use, hence it is in the best position for the coming hegemonic competition.

Colombian instability has been on the rise since 2003 disproves the impact
The Economist, 3 (Ripples of instability, 5/1/2003,
http://www.economist.com/node/1755158) // MS

FOR years, it has been claimed that Colombia's conflicts are spilling over its borders,
threatening the stability of its neighbours. But hitherto there has been little evidence of thisoutside immediate
frontier areas. These have seen a few refugees, and periodic incursions by leftist guerrillas from the FARC or ELN or rightist
paramilitaries from the United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC), seeking either plunder or rest and recreation. Is the
Colombian conflict now starting to cause wider ripples in South America? There are three
reasons for thinking so. One is that Plan Colombia, the American-backed scheme to fight
guerrillas by fighting the drug production from which they derive income, is having an effect:
coca cultivation is falling in Colombia, but rising elsewhere. Second, lvaro Uribe, who took
office as Colombia's president last year, has been seekingbut not always gettingwider co-
operation from around the region. Staunchly pro-American, he has echoed George Bush in demanding that his
neighbours be either with him or against him in curbing terrorists, as he has dubbed all three of Colombia's irregular armies.
Third, tension has become acute between Colombia and Venezuela.
AT: Latin America
No threat to the U.S. from Venezuela
BBC 8 (may 10, pg. http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/3427)

Alejandro Snchez, an analyst with the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a U.S. investigative
organism, interprets the reactivation of the Fourth Fleet as a political decision, more than a
military one. For the last few years, the United States was concentrated on Iraq and
Afghanistan. Recently now it is trying to return to Latin America, he told the BBC. With regard
to the supposed U.S. military challenges in the region, Snchez added: Lets be honest. Even if
Venezuela acquires a Russian submarine, or Brazil wants to develop a nuclear submarine,
neither of these countries can present a military threat to the United States.
Venezuela Wont Pose Global Threat
Carpenter 12 (Ted Galen, July 18, pg. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/obama-
right-about-hugo-chavez-7211)

Hugo Chavez has been a catastrophe for his country and an annoyance to his neighbors. But
those offenses are quite different from posing a security threatmuch less a serious security
threatto the United States. Venezuela is a small country with very limited military
capabilities, while the United States is a large country with vast military capabilities. Chavez is
a gnat, not a rattlesnake.
Venezuela terrorist threat exaggerated
Golinger 12 (Eva, July 31, pg. http://sfbayview.com/2012/venezuela-a-threat-to-washington/)

Is Venezuela a threat to Washington? In Venezuela, the only terrorists are the groups trying
to destabilize the country, the majority with political and financial support from the U.S. The
drug traffickers are in Colombia, where the production and transit of drugs has increased during
the U.S. invasion disguised as Plan Colombia. Relations with Iran, Cuba, China, Russia and the
rest of the world are normal bilateral and multilateral ties between countries. There are no
bombs, no attack plans, no sinister secrets. No, Venezuela is not that kind of threat to
Washington.