Hydraulic Fracturing:

Research and Analysis

2014 Internship Rahma Zakaria
BACKGROUND AND
RESEARCH
Hydraulic fracturing
Natural gas pros and cons
Methane
The big question
What is Hydraulic Fracturing?
Hydraulic fracturing,
also called fracking,
is a method of
extracting natural gas,
or particularly shale
gas, from beds of rock
(shale) deep inside the
Earth.

Natural Gas Production
Due to the increasing damage being done to the atmosphere by
the greenhouse gases released by burning coal and fossil fuels,
many people, companies, and states are considering switching
from coal to natural gas.

These are some advantages of using natural gas:
Low cost fuel
Increased chemical industry output: natural gas production would
create more jobs, boosting Americas economy
Increase Americas energy security, decreasing their dependence on
other countries for fuel
Doesnt release CO2 (carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere
Natural Gas Production
However, producing and using natural gas has harms as
well.
It degrades groundwater and surface water through:
Leaks Drilling site discharge Transportation spills Waste disposal
It pollutes the air through emissions of:
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxide (NOx). VOCs
and NOx react in the presence of sunlight and create ozone, which
acts as a lung irritant when close to the Earths surface
Methane, a greenhouse gas
Particulate matter (PM2.5) tiny pieces of solid or liquid particles in
the atmosphere that have a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or less. They
affect human health and the climate, and may be carcinogens.
Air Pollution Emissions by Some of
the Stages/Materials of Fracking
Stage or Material of the Fracking
Process
Emissions
Drilling VOCs, NOx, PM2.5
Trucks VOCs, NOx, PM2.5
Hydraulic fracturing VOCs, NOx, PM2.5
Completion venting (venting the
well after fracturing)
VOCs
Gas compressors VOCs, NOx, PM2.5
Methane Leakage
Supporters of natural gas say that burning natural gas does
not produce carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, like the
burning of coal does.
Instead of CO2, producing natural gas releases methane, or
CH4, another greenhouse gas.
Methane has a smaller residence time than carbon dioxide (it stays in
the atmosphere for less time) but it is a stronger greenhouse gas than
CO2.
Leaks from the different stages of natural gas production (well
completion, processing, transport, storage, distribution, etc.) release
the harmful methane into the air.
The Big Questions
Is switching from using coal as our primary energy supply to
using natural gas WORTH IT?

Which option will be more beneficial to the Earths
environment and atmosphere in the long run? To stick with
coal and release carbon dioxide into the air? Or to start using
natural gas, despite the air pollution it produces?

Statistics
Because some of my work would be dealing with statistics, Dr.
Ehrman gave me a textbook to read: Statistical Procedures for
the Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data & Risk
Assessment. I studied these concepts a bit:
Standard deviation, variance, mean
Tolerance
Confidence
Outliers & Outlier tests
Hypothesis testing
Students t-test
Normal distribution
Mann-Whitney Test

PURPOSE
As a Group
My supervisor was Professor Sheryl Ehrman, who is the
Keystone Professor and Chair of UMDs Department of
Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering. Dr. Ehrman directs
several research groups, mostly dealing with aerosol and
nanoparticle technology.
I worked with the fracking group, which consisted of two
undergraduates (Alexa C. and Joseph D.) and one graduate
student (Tim V.)
The groups purpose is to quantitatively measure the
magnitude of the problem posed by natural gas production
polluting the air.
As an Individual
As I joined the group knowing nothing about fracking, my first
goal was to understand all the background information by
reading research papers. Besides that, I hoped to:
Learn new things
Be able to actually help the group in their research / data
analysis
Gain some insight into the life of college students
participating in research
DATA COLLECTION
PAMS & NAM12
The data we used was collected by Photochemical
Assessment Monitoring Stations, or PAMS, across the state.
PAMS monitor and collect measurements of VOC, NOx, and
hydrocarbon levels in the air, as well as meteorological
conditions.
These stations aim to provide a more comprehensive air
quality database for ozone and its precursors due to America
not fulfilling the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for
ozone.
The PAMS data can be viewed as NAM12 files.
NAM is the North American Mesoscale forecast system. It
contains information on different parameters including
temperature, precipitation, and kinetic energy.

PAMS: Gas Chromatography
The PAMS collect data with a process called gas
chromatography. This is the simplified process:
Conditioning
system (moisture
removed)
Adsorbent (air
concentrated)
Liquid Nitrogen/
coolers (air
cryogenically
cooled)
Air desorbed
thermally
Carrier gas
added
Air sample
concentrated
again
Air goes through
analytical column
Flame ionization
detector
Data
collection
complete
AIR
The column is a long
pipe with a substance
on its inner surface
that separates the air
into individual
components
The detector
makes a
signal based
on carbon
response
and IDs the
individual
components
based on
their
retention
time. So
whatever
the air was
carrying is
classified.
Ethane vs. Methane
The PAMS data we used was the measurements of
ethane, a hydrocarbon.
We used the ethane data as an indication of the
methane data.
DATA ANALYSIS WHAT I
ACTUALLY DID
Running nam12 files, executing trajectory models, clustering
trajectories based on location HYSPLIT
Grouping clusters based on location - PowerPoint
Separating and classifying data - Excel
Running Mann-Whitney U-Tests Minitab
Plotting locations on map Google Earth
Creating scatterplots - Excel
1. HYSPLIT
HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory
Model) is a meteorology program that can execute trajectories and
clusters, simulate air concentration, perform source attribution of
pollutants, and do several other air pollution related functions.
This is what my
screen usually looks
like when Im using
HYSPLIT. The long
rectangle in the
upper left corner is
the programs main
menu. Above it is
the trajectory
options, and whats
open now is a setup
window.
I used HYSPLIT to create back trajectories of ethane gas from
each measuring station. The trajectories would be created by
the program using meteorological information and models,
and would show the path of the ethane during the 48 hours
before it reached the station.
HYSPLIT Summary: Trajectory
Once I downloaded HYSPLIT onto my computer and
received the hard drive with the nam12 files, Joseph
and Tim taught me the basics of running trajectories.
In Setup, I changed the lat/longitude to that of the
station I was working on, and selected at most 11
nam12 files to run 48-hour back trajectories on
In Daily Run, I put the date of the trajectory I wanted
and the hours the measurements took place on that
day
I clicked Run and watched the finished files appear in
a folder
HYSPLIT Summary: Cluster
I ran all the files of the summer months for a year, and
then clustered them.
Standard Clustering is a special run on HYSPLIT. I
wrote the file name that all the files of the desired
days had in common, and chose where the program
could access the files.
I selected a number of clusters and then ran the
program. It took all the years trajectories and
clustered them into the specified number of clusters
based on how close they were to each other on a
map. The number of clusters could also be changed.
PowerPoint: Cluster
At this point I had a group of clusters on a map. I could then
classify some clusters as fracking and others as non
fracking. The fracking clusters were those that passed over
counties that did hydraulic fracturing or had gas wells. That
would mean that the ethane most likely had been emitted by the
fracking well.

I ran trajectories and created clusters for two measuring sites
(Beltsville and Philadelphia) for the years 2007-2013.

I separated the fracking and non fracking clusters of the year
and put them on a PowerPoint. For example, here are the
clusters from the Philadelphia station for 2013. Because we dont
look at individual trajectories, though, there is some uncertainty.

Fracking Clusters
Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West
Virginia have many fracking
sites/wells. Clusters passing
over those states are
considered fracking.
Non-Fracking Clusters
Ethane clusters that dont
cross PA, OH, or WV, or come
from the ocean, are probably
not fracking emissions.
Excel: Separation
I had a spreadsheet that listed the sample measurements
of ethane for each hour a measurement was taken.
Depending on the site, measurements were taken every
hour or every 3.
Running the cluster analysis on HYSPLIT gave me a file
that listed which cluster each day and hour belonged to.
I matched up the sample measurements and their
corresponding day/hour and cluster #. Then I separated
the fracking and non fracking clusters based on the
previous classification.
This gave me separate columns of fracking
measurements and non fracking measurements.
Minitab: Mann-Whitney
Minitab is a data analysis software that allows you to run
parametric/non parametric procedures on your data, to
calculate statistical factors, and to create different graphs like
box-and-whisker, bubble, etc.
I used Minitab to run the Mann-Whitney test on my data. The
Mann-Whitney U-test is a nonparametric test that can
determine if there is a statistically significant difference
between two sets of data, and compares the medians to
calculate whether one is significantly higher than the other.
I used the Mann Whitney test to compare:
The fracking measurements of a year to the non fracking
measurements of the same year (to see if there was more
ethane emitted from fracking sources or not)
The fracking measurements of a year to the fracking
measurements of the next year (to see if the fracking ethane
measurements increased with time)
The total (fracking and non fracking) measurements if a year
to the total measurements of the next year (to see if the total
ethane measurements increased with time)
Minitab results: example
For this table, I used
the Mann Whitney test
to compare fracking
measurements
between one year and
the next, for Beltsville.
Conclusion: Fracking
measurements
increased each year
except for 2011.

Years
Compared
(Fracking)
Test
Less Than Not Equal Greater Than
2007 & 2008 Significant Significant Cannot
reject
2008 & 2009 Significant Significant Cannot
reject
2009 & 2010 Significant Significant Cannot
reject
2010 & 2011 Cannot
reject
Significant Significant
2011 & 2012 Significant Significant Cannot
reject
2012 & 2013 Significant Significant Cannot
reject
Plotting: Google Earth
When grouping our HYSPLIT clusters, we had just looked at
this map of fracking wells and judged whether or not our
clusters passed over a fracking area.






However, we then wanted to figure out a way to
quantitatively determine whether our so-called fracking
clusters really were emitted by fracking wells.
Maps.fractracker.org
To do that, we had to keep in mind natural gas sources BESIDES
natural gas production. They include compressed natural gas
(CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stations, such as some
gas stations and companies that use natural gas.

I worked on plotting the points onto Google Earth (yellow = LPG,
red = CNG) and another group member is figuring out how to
plot HYSPLIT clusters directly onto Google Earth.
Scatterplot - Excel
Finally, I created a scatterplot graphing the average ethane
measurement every 3 hours, for the years 2006-2013. This
graph is for Beltsville, and I am working on the Philadelphia
plot.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
E
t
h
a
n
e

(
p
p
b
C
)

Hour of Day (Local Time)
Ethane Measurements: Beltsville, MD
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CONCLUSIONS
My contributions
What I learned
My Contributions
Running of Beltsville and Philadelphia nam12 files in HYSPLIT.
Other group members worked on other sites, such as Essex.
PowerPoints of clusters grouped by fracking/non-fracking,
which gave a visual representation of ethane data to support
the groups purpose.
Several tables of Minitab test results, most of which
supported the groups previous observations that fracking
measurements exceeded non-fracking measurements, and
that fracking measurements increased most years (with some
exceptions in different stations).
A scatterplot graphing the average ethane measurement
every 3 hours, for the years 2006-2013, which showed which
hours of the day had highest ethane levels.
What I learned
Technically
Practiced using Excel for
functions I didnt know before
(like solving for geometric
mean, creating scatterplots
with many lines, etc.)
Learned how to use
HYSPLIT and Minitab and
how to interpret their results
Academically
Became comfortable with
reading research papers, taking
notes, and basic research
Learned a lot about hydraulic
fracturing and its environmental
effects
Was introduced to some
statistics
Skills
Teamwork, communication, and discussion skills
Presentation skills in front of higher level audiences
Independence (in terms of working from home, and transportation)
SOURCES
Websites
Fractracker.org
http://www.epa.gov/ttnamti1/pamsmain.html
https://data.noaa.gov/dataset/north-american-
mesoscale-forecast-system-nam-12-km
Some of the research papers
Air pollutant emissions from the development,
production, and processing of Marcellus Shale
natural gas
Assessing air quality impacts of natural gas
development and production in the Marcellus Shale
Formation
Greater focus needed on methane leakage from
natural gas infrastructure
Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of
natural gas from shale formations