December Brief RL

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Resolution
Resolved: Immigration reform should include a path
to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
currently living in the United States.
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Table of Contents
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Affirmative Case
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Affirmative Contentions
1. Economics a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
would help the economy tremendously, and therefore close fiscal
deficits as tax revenues rise.
Economic ains and !eficits" #$C %rings economic gains and closes fiscal deficits.
&ynch and 'a(ford $)1*
Patrick Oakford is a Research Assistant in the Economic Polic de!artment at the Center for American Pro"ress# $is research foc%ses on iss%es
relatin" to &#'# immi"ration !olic and the labor force# Patrick holds an (#'c# in mi"ration st%dies from the &ni)ersit of O*ford and a +#'# in
ind%strial and labor relations from Cornell &ni)ersit# Prior to ,oinin" American Pro"ress- Patrick s!ent time researchin" state.le)el immi"ration
laws and the intersection of immi"ration and em!loment law as a research fellow at Cornell# Robert G# Lnch- Ph#/# is a 0isitin" 'enior 1ellow
at the Center for American Pro"ress and the chair of the /e!artment of Economics at 2ashin"ton Colle"e# The Center for American Pro"ress is
an inde!endent non!artisan ed%cational instit%te dedicated to im!ro)in" the li)es of Americans thro%"h !ro"ressi)e ideas and action#
htt!344www#american!ro"ress#or"4iss%es4immi"ration4re!ort425134534254673614the.economic.effects.of."rantin".le"al.stat%s.and.citi8enshi!.to.%
ndoc%mented.immi"rants4
+nder the second scenario9in which undocumented immigrants are granted legal status in $)1* and
citizenship five years thereafter9the 1),year cumulative increase in +.-. !# would %e .1.1
trillion, and the annual increases in the incomes of Americans would sum to ./)* %illion. 'n
average o)er the 15 ears- this immi"ration reform would create 101,))) 2o%s per year# Gi)en the dela in ac:%irin"
citi8enshi! relati)e to the first scenario- it wo%ld take 15 ears instead of fi)e for the incomes of the unauthorized to increase
$0.1 percent# O)er the 15.ear !eriod- they would earn .0)* %illion more and pay an additional .133 %illion
in taxes9;<1 billion to the federal "o)ernment and ;63 billion to state and local "o)ernments# 1inall- under the third scenario9in
which undocumented immigrants are granted legal status starting in $)1* %ut are not eligi%le for
citizenship within 1) years9the cumulative gain in +.-. !# %etween $)1* and $)$$ would still %e a
si"nificant9b%t com!arati)el more modest9. 4*$ %illion. 5he annual increases in the incomes of Americans
would sum to .36) %illion o)er the 15.ear !eriod- and the economy would add an average of 1$1,))) more
2o%s per year# 5he income of the unauthorized would %e 10.1 percent higher within five years#
7ecause of their increased earnings, undocumented immigrants would pay an additional .1)1
%illion in taxes o)er the 15.ear !eriod9;=< billion to the federal "o)ernment and ;45 billion to state and local "o)ernments# These
immi"ration reform scenarios ill%strate that unauthorized immigrants are currently earning far less than their
potential, paying much less in taxes, and contri%uting significantly less to the +.-. economy than
they potentially could# The also make clear that Americans stand to gain more from an immigration reform
policy of legalization and citizenship than they do from one of legalization alone8or from no
reform at all. 1inall- the ma"nit%de of !otential economic "ains de!ends si"nificantl on how :%ickl reforms are im!lemented# The
sooner that le"al stat%s and citi8enshi! are "ranted to the %na%thori8ed- the "reater the "ains will be for the &#'# econom#
#roductivity and 9ncome" #$C (ey to greater immigrant productivity and income.
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>%mero%s st%dies and "o)ernment data sets ha)e shown that positive economic outcomes are highly correlated with
legal status and citizenship# &arge and detailed government datasets8such as the +.-. Census
7ureau:s American Community -urvey and Current #opulation -urvey8have documented, for
example, that +.-. citizens have average incomes that are 3) percent greater or more than the average
incomes of noncitizen immigrants, %oth those here legally and the unauthorized. 2ithin the immi"rant
comm%nit- economic o%tcomes also )ar b le"al stat%s# A study done %y eorge 7or2as and ;arta 5ienda found
that prior to 114/ ;exican immigrant men legally in the +nited -tates earned / percent more than
unauthorized ;exican male immigrants. Research suggests that undocumented immigrants are
further <underground= today than they were in 114/8and that they experience an even wider
wage gap . >atherine !onato and 7la(e -is(, for example, found that %etween $))* and $))1, the
average hourly wage of ;exican immigrants legally in the +nited -tates was $4.* percent greater
than it was for undocumented ;exican immigrants. ?n addition- a +.-. !epartment of &a%or study8
based on a carefully constructed and large longitudinal survey of the nearly * million unauthorized
immigrants who were granted legal status and given a road map to citizenship under the
9mmigration Reform and Control Act of 114/8found that these previously undocumented
immigrants experienced a 10.1 percent increase in their average inflation.ad,%sted wages within five
years of gaining legal status. 't%dies ha)e also re!orted that citizenship provides an added economic %oost
a%ove and %eyond the gains from legalization# (an%el #astor and @%stin -coggins- for instance- found that
even when controlling for a range of factors such as educational attainment and national origin,
naturalized immigrants earned 11 percent more than legal noncitizens.
#roductivity and 9ncome" #$C (ey to greater immigrant productivity and income.
5here are several reasons why legalization and citizenship %oth raise the incomes of immigrants
and improve economic outcomes. #roviding a road ma! to citizenship to undocumented immigrants
gives them legal protections that raise their wages. 9t also promotes investment in the education and
training of immigrants that eventually pays off in the form of higher wages and output? grants
access to a %roader range of higher,paying 2o%s ? encourages la%or mo%ility which increases the
returns on the la%or s(ills of immigrants %y improving the efficiency of the la%or mar(et such that
the s(illsets of immigrants more closely match the 2o%s that they perform? and ma(es it more
possi%le for immigrants to start %usinesses and create 2o%s.
Employment Rights" +ndocumented immigrants lac( employment rights in the
status @uo.
leeson $)1)
'hannon Gleeson- Ph#/#- is an Associate Professor of Latin American and Latino 't%dies at the &ni)ersit of California- +erkele# Law and
Social Inquiry is a :%arterl !eer.re)iewed academic ,o%rnal !%blished b 2ile.+lackwell on behalf of the American +ar 1o%ndation# The
,o%rnal was established in 1<7=# The ,o%rnal !%blishes articles on law and sociolo"- economics- !olitical science- social !scholo"- histor-
!hiloso!h- and other social science and h%manities disci!lines#
htt!344onlinelibrar#wile#com#!ro*#librar#)c%#ed%4doi415#11114,#1747.44=<#2515#511<=#*4f%ll
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(eanwhile- am!le research has doc%mented the challen"es associated with low.wa"e work and hi"hli"hted the particular
vulnera%ility of immigrant wor(ers Afor wage and hour a%uses - see Greenho%se 2556B 2illiams 255=B Ore 2557B for
lac( of safety protections- see Loh and Richardson 2554B C%andt et al# 255=B >issen- An"ee- and 2einstein 255DB for sexual
harassment- see 0ellos 1<<=B Gon8Ele8.LF!e8 255=G# Law and societ scholars ha)e also %nderstood that most indi)id%als- re"ardless of
nati)it or other ascri!ti)e characteristics- are rel%ctant to en"a"e in claims makin" A(iller and 'arat 1<D5B Hrit8er- 0idmar- and +o"art 1<<1B
+%miller 1<<2G# Critics of the e*istin" labor standards enforcement re"ime !oint to a shorta"e of in)esti"ators- inordinate !rocessin" times- and
ineffecti)e em!loer !enalties as additional obstacles for wo%ld.be worker claimants A+obo 255DG# >onetheless- des!ite si"nificant challen"es to
the contrar- federal and state labor standards enforcement a"encies ha)e remained "enerall committed to !rotectin" the ri"hts of all workers-
re"ardless of le"al stat%s AE:%al Em!loment O!!ort%nit Commission 2552B /e!artment of Labor 2557bB California /e!artment of ?nd%strial
Relations 255<G# Iet- scholars ha)e reco"ni8ed that challen"es remain for le"al mobili8ation# 5he vulnera%ility of undocumented
wor(ers stems in large part from their contradictor legal position. Ahile most undocumented wor(ers
find employers ready and willing to hire them- and ri"hts are made a)ailable to them- they are fundamentally
restricted from li)in" or wor(ing in the +nited -tates# Researchers ha)e hi"hli"hted se)eral effects of this contradictor
sit%ation- which exacer%ates the vulnera%ility of undocumented wor(ers and their reluctance to ma(e
claims on their e*istin" rights. 1irst- it is clear that immi"rant workers- like the a)era"e low.wa"e worker- often lack s%fficient
knowled"e abo%t the laws "o)ernin" work in America# Lan"%a"e barriers and lack of c%lt%rall a!!ro!riate information intensif this barrier# ?n
res!onse- a"encies ha)e la%nched cam!ai"ns directed at the immi"rant workforce in the ho!e of im!ro)in" this sit%ation A>ash 2553B
Occ%!ational 'afet and $ealth Administration 2553- 2557G# 'econd- the )er nat%re of the tem!orar and contin"ent occ%!ations in which
%ndoc%mented workers often find themsel)es are characteristicall diffic%lt to enforce A0ellos 1<<=B 0alen8%ela et al# 255=G# Third- ad)ocates
continue to uncover egregious instances of employer intimidation in which the immigration status
of a wor(er is often wielded as an overt threat a"ainst wo%ld.be claimants A$%man Ri"hts 2atch 2556B A)endaJo and
$inca!iK 255DG# To be s%re- each of these obstacles !re)ents %ndoc%mented workers from en"a"in" in le"al mobili8ation# $owe)erin this article
? ar"%e that %ndoc%mented workers confront a more essential challen"e to claims makin" that makes efforts s%ch as worker ed%cation-
stren"thenin" labor laws- and tar"etin" ab%si)e em!loers absol%tel necessar b%t %ltimatel ins%fficient# Thro%"h an analsis of inter)iews
with fort.one Latino immi"rant workers in the mainstream resta%rant ind%str- ? hi"hli"ht the was in which immi"ration stat%s ma affect the
le"al conscio%sness of immi"rant workers- %ltimatel sha!in" their a!!roach to claims makin"#
Employment Rights" A path to citizenship would solve legal protection pro%lems in
the status @uo.
&egalization allows the newly authorized to invo(e the numerous employment rights that they
previously could not %enefit from9b%t were in most cases entitled to9due to their constant fear of %eing
deported . #roviding unauthorized wor(ers with legal status increases their %argaining power
relative to their employers, which in turn lowers the li(elihood of wor(er exploitation and
suppressed wages. This means that newly legal immigrants will %e %etter e@uipped to contest an unlawful
termination of employment, to negotiate for fair compensation or a promotion, and to file a
complaint if they %elieve they are %eing mistreated or a%used. Citi8enshi! !ro)ides e)en "reater !rotections than
le"ali8ation# Citi8ens- for e*am!le- cannot be de!orted- while immi"rants who are le"al residents are still s%b,ect to de!ortation %nder certain
circ%mstances#
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9nvestment" 9mmigrants invest more in education and training with a path to
citizenship.
Le"al stat%s and a road map to citizenship both provide a guarantee of long,term mem%ership in American
society and cause noncitizen immigrants to invest in their English language s(ills and in other
forms of education and training that raise their productivity. Research shows that le"al stat%s and a road ma! to
citi8enshi! both create the o!!ort%nit and incenti)e for workers to in)est in their labor.market skills at a "reater rate than the otherwise wo%ld3
>earl 46 !ercent of the wa"e increases e*!erienced b newl le"ali8ed immi"rants is d%e to %!"rades in their h%man ca!ital#11 'imilarl- a
!epartment of &a%or study of newly legalized immigrants found that they had significantly
improved their English language s(ills and educational attainment within five years of gaining legal
status and a road ma! to citizenship.
7etter Bo%s" 9mmigrants gain access to %etter 2o%s with a path to citizenship.
&ndoc%mented immi"rants are not le"all li)in" in the co%ntr- nor are the le"all !ermitted to work here# E*!ensi)e federal. and state.le)el
employer sanctions on the hiring of undocumented wor(ers further restrict their access to fairly
compensated and legal wor( opportunities %ecause employers are reluctant to hire immigrants. 9f
they do hire immigrants, they may use the threat of these sanctions to 2ustify paying immigrants
lower wages than they are due. Le"al nonciti8en immi"rants also s%ffer from restricted ,ob access d%e to lack of citi8enshi!#
;any 2o%s8including many pu%lic,sector 2o%s, as well as high,paying private,sector 2o%s8are
either availa%le only to citizens or re@uire security clearances that noncitizens cannot o%tain. 9n
addition, employers often prefer citizens to noncitizens9a form of discrimination that is sometimes !ermissible %nder
&#'# labor laws# E)en where it is %nlawf%l to discriminate- some em!loers ma hire citi8ens o)er nonciti8ens for a )ariet of reasons- incl%din"3
to ens%re that the are not )iolatin" the law b mistakenl hirin" %ndoc%mented immi"rantsB beca%se the ma belie)e that citi8ens are better
em!loees than nonciti8ensB beca%se the wo%ld !refer to hire a co.national rather than a nonciti8en#
9ncome" 9ncomes rise for undocumented immigrants with a path to citizenship.
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?n o%r analsis- we estimate that the income premium of citizenship for all immigrants9both doc%mented and
%ndoc%mented9%y comparing the earnings of naturalized and noncitizen immigrant populations while
statistically controlling for o%serva%le differences other than citizenship that may affect
income,level differences %etween the two groups#1< Ae control for education level? wor( experience?
age? year of arrival in the +nited -tates? raceCethnicity? gender differences? country of origin? state
of residency? rural versus ur%an residence? and marital status of nat%rali8ed and nonciti8en immi"rant !o!%lations to
estimate the effect that citi8enshi! has on earnin"s# 2e do so beca%se these factors are likel to be res!onsible for differences in the earnin"s of
nat%rali8ed immi"rants and nonciti8en immi"rants9differences that wo%ld remain e)en if all nonciti8ens ac:%ired citi8enshi!# Ae (now- for
e*am!le- that noncitizen immigrants are younger, less educated, and less advanced in their careers
than naturalized citizens9differences that wo%ld contin%e to affect the relati)e earnin"s of both "ro%!s after ac:%isition of
citi8enshi!# 2e find that citizenship is associated with a statistically significant %oost in the incomes of
immigrants8an average of 1/ percent A17#1 !ercent for women and 14#6 !ercent for menG in 2511#25 Of co%rse- there is no !olic bein" contem!lated toda whereb all nonciti8ens
wo%ld become citi8ens# And since o%r re"ression analsis mi*es alread.doc%mented le"al nonciti8ens with %ndoc%mented nonciti8ens- it does not meas%re the effect of a !olic chan"e aimed onl at the %ndoc%mented# +%t it does
"i)e a "ood indication of the im!act o)er time of mo)in" !eo!le from bein" %na%thori8ed to le"al nonciti8ens to nat%rali8ed citi8ens9the details of which we disa""re"ate in the ne*t section of this !a!er# ?f we made the ass%m!tion
that the income effect of le"ali8ation and citi8enshi! combined for the %na%thori8ed is the same as the income effect of citi8enshi! that we estimated for the entire nonciti8en immi"rant !o!%lation- then we wo%ld concl%de that the
%na%thori8ed wo%ld e*!erience an a)era"e increase in income of 1= !ercent from le"ali8ation and citi8enshi!# This estimate- howe)er- %nderstates the tr%e income effect for the %na%thori8ed !o!%lation beca%se it a""re"ates the
relati)el smaller income "ains that le"al nonciti8ens "et from citi8enshi! alone with the relati)el lar"er income "ains that the %na%thori8ed "et from le"ali8ation and citi8enshi!# ?n addition- o%r re"ression estimate f%rther %nderstates
the income effect of citi8enshi! for the %na%thori8ed beca%se the %na%thori8ed are %nderco%nted in the dataset#21 Citi8enshi! for the %na%thori8ed !ro)ides two clearl distinct b%t interconnected benefits that si"nificantl im!act their
earnin"s and m%st be taken into acco%nt3 le"al standin" and citi8enshi!# Ae (now from the largest and %est study of the income effect of
legalization8the 111/ +.-. !epartment of &a%or study that anal8ed the earnin"s of the nearl 3 million %na%thori8ed
immi"rants who were "ranted le"al stat%s and "i)en a road ma! to citi8enshi! %nder the ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act of 1<D=9that
the average hourly wage of the newly legalized D%ut not yet citizenE population increased %y 10.1
percent five years after legalization#22 &nfort%natel- the /e!artment of Labor st%d did not contin%e to meas%re the wa"e increases that the newl le"ali8ed !o!%lation "ained after the ac:%ired citi8enshi!# An additional
income effect from citi8enshi! wo%ld ha)e occ%rred on to! of the 16#1 !ercent income increase that followed le"ali8ation- which im!lies that %ndoc%mented immi"rants wo%ld ha)e "ained more than a 16#1 !ercent increase in their earnin"s from ac:%irin" both le"al stat%s and the other
benefits of citi8enshi!# 1or a re)iew of st%dies that ha)e shown the additional income effect of citi8enshi!- see the a!!endi*# >onetheless- with an a!!ro!riate ad,%stment to acco%nt for the %nderco%nt of %na%thori8ed immi"rants- we can %se o%r re"ression res%lts- the /e!artment of LaborLs
1<<= st%d- and a set of reasonable ass%m!tions to estimate the likel f%ll income effect of citi8enshi! for the %na%thori8ed- takin" into acco%nt both the le"ali8ation effect and the f%rther increase in earnin"s d%e to the ac:%isition of citi8enshi!# 2e can then ill%strate the G/P- earnin"s- ,ob
"rowth- and ta*.re)en%e im!lications of o%r estimate for three forms of immi"ration reform that co%ld start in 2513#23 To estimate the effect of citi8enshi! on the earnin"s of %na%thori8ed immi"rants- we decom!ose the income effect of citi8enshi! that we estimated for all nonciti8ens91=
!ercent9into two com!onents3 one to estimate the !ercenta"e "ain in income that the %na%thori8ed e*!erience as a conse:%ence of attainin" le"al stat%s and the other to estimate the !ercenta"e "ain in income that the obtain from becomin" nat%rali8ed citi8ens# 2e then add these
com!onents and ad,%st for the %nderco%nt of the %na%thori8ed in the dataset to arri)e at a likel estimate of the f%ll income effect of citi8enshi! for %na%thori8ed immi"rants# 1or the first com!onent- we ass%me that the %na%thori8ed wo%ld "ain the same 16#1 !ercent increase in income that
%na%thori8ed immi"rants e*!erienced from 1<D= to 1<<2 when the obtained le"al stat%s- as meas%red b the /e!artment of Labor#24 5his 10.1 percent increase in wages over five years
was due to the immediate impact on earnings of the ac@uisition of legal status and the su%se@uent
effects on earnings of the ac@uisition of more education, further mastery of English, access to a
%roader range of 2o%s- and other factors that le"ali8ation enco%ra"ed and made !ossible#26 1or the second com!onent- we hold constant
the total citi8enshi! effect91= !ercent9and then calc%late the effect of mo)in" from le"al stat%s to citi8enshi!- wei"htin" the effect to reflect the
distrib%tion of le"al and %na%thori8ed nonciti8en immi"rants in o%r sam!le and the a)era"e incomes of the two "ro%!s#2= O%r estimate of the
second com!onent s%""ests that !re)io%sl %na%thori8ed and newly legalized immigrants would experience an
additional 1) percent gain in income if they ac@uired citizenship#27 Takin" into acco%nt both com!onents- o%r most
likel estimate of the full effect of granting legal status and citizenship to unauthorized immigrants is an
income gain of $0.1 percent#2D Of this boost in income- abo%t three.fifths comes from le"ali8ation and abo%t two.fifths is attrib%table
to transitionin" from le"al stat%s to citi8enshi!#
-ocial ;o%ility" A path to citizenship would increase immigrant social mo%ility.
Fino2osa,'2eda $)1)
RaMl $ino,osa.O,eda- Ph#/# is the fo%ndin" director of the >orth American ?nte"ration and /e)elo!ment Center and associate !rofessor in the
/i)ision of 'ocial 'ciences and the CKsar E# ChE)e8 /e!artment of Chicana and Chicano 't%dies at the &ni)ersit of California- Los An"eles#
+orn in (e*ico and raised in Chica"o- he recei)ed a +#A# in economics- an (#A# in anthro!olo"- and a Ph#/# in !olitical science at the
&ni)ersit of Chica"o# The ?mmi"ration Polic Center A?PCG is the research and !olic arm of the American ?mmi"ration Co%ncil# ?PCNs mission
is to sha!e a rational con)ersation on immi"ration and immi"rant inte"ration# Thro%"h its research and analsis- ?PC !ro)ides !olicmakers- the
media- and the "eneral !%blic with acc%rate information abo%t the role of immi"rants and immi"ration !olic on &#'# societ# ?PC re!orts and
materials are widel disseminated and relied %!on b !ress and !olic makers# ?PC staff re"%larl ser)es as e*!erts to leaders on Ca!itol $ill#
htt!344www#american!ro"ress#or"4w!.content4%!loads4251245<4immi"rationeconre!ort3#!df
The e*!erience of ?RCA also indicates that legalization greatly increases the incentives for formerly unauthorized
wor(ers to invest in themselves and their communities8to the %enefit of the +.-. economy as a
whole. As Hosso%d,i and Cobb.Clark e*!lain- the wages of unauthorized wor(ers are generally unrelated to
their actual s(ill level. +nauthorized wor(ers tend to %e concentrated in the lowest,wage
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Godwin RL <
occupations? they try to minimize the ris( of deportation even if this means wor(ing for lower
wages? and they are especially vulnera%le to outright exploitation %y unscrupulous employers. 'nce
unauthorized wor(ers are legalized, however, these artificial %arriers to upward socioeconomic
mo%ility disappear.
$. #u%lic Fealth a path to citizenship would raise insurance rates
among immigrants, %enefiting pu%lic health, and reducing
healthcare costs overall.
9nsurance and Fealth Costs" +ndocumented immigrants are %etter insured under a
path to citizenship, increasing access to care.
>u $)1$
Lei"hton H%- Ph#/#- (#P#$#- is a !rofessor and director of the Center for $ealth Polic Research in the /e!artment of $ealth Polic in the 'chool
of P%blic $ealth and $ealth 'er)ices at the Geor"e 2ashin"ton &ni)ersit# 1or more than 25 ears- he has cond%cted research and analsis
re"ardin" health care for disad)anta"ed !o!%lations- incl%din" st%dies of health care reform at national and state le)els- (edicaid- safet.net
health care- and immi"rants# Prior to comin" to Geor"e 2ashin"ton- /r# H% was a senior fellow at the Center on +%d"et and Polic Priorities and
a !rinci!al researcher at the &rban ?nstit%te# $e has a Ph#/# in health !olic from +oston &ni)ersit and an (#P#$# from the &ni)ersit of
California- +erkele# The Commonwealth 1%nd is a !ri)ate fo%ndation that aims to !romote a hi"h !erformin" health care sstem that achie)es
better access- im!ro)ed :%alit- and "reater efficienc- !artic%larl for societNs most )%lnerable- incl%din" low.income !eo!le- the %nins%red-
minorit Americans- o%n" children- and elderl ad%lts#
htt!344www#commonwealthf%nd#or"4+lo"425134A%"4'enate.?mmi"ration.+ills.?m!act.on.$ealth.Care#as!*
After attaining permanent residency- !ro)isional immigrants would %e eligi%le for ACA health su%sidies#
1i)e ears afterward- they could %ecome eligi%le for ;edicaid if their incomes are low eno%"h# A'ome states !ermit (edicaid
eli"ibilit for !re"nant women or children witho%t a fi)e.ear waitin" !eriod#G The net res%lt of these barriers is that immi"rants with !ro)isional
stat%s will contin%e to ha)e hi"h %nins%rance le)els and limited access to health ser)ices# Effects on ?ns%rance Co)era"e# +eca%se of the
indi)id%al mandate- most of the new legal immigrants should have !ri)ate insurance co)era"e- sometimes with ACA
s%bsidies# The !ro)isional.stat%s immi"rants will lar"el be barred from !%blicl s%bsidi8ed ins%rance# +%t em!loer.s!onsored co)era"e mi"ht
increase sli"htl for !ro)isional immi"rants# Recent data indicate abo%t 2< !ercent of %na%thori8ed ad%lts alread ha)e !ri)ate ins%rance#
aining legal status should help immigrants get %etter 2o%s, ones that include 2o%,%ased coverage.
Gollowing the 114/ !assa"e of the 9mmi"ration Control and Reform Act- d%rin" the Rea"an Administration- legalization of
unauthorized immigrants led to higher earnings, more 2o% %enefits Dsuch as insurance coverageE,
and reduced mortality rates among this group.
9nsurance and Fealth Costs" +ndocumented immigrants are %etter insured under a
path to citizenship, there%y helping to reduce healthcare costs overall.
len $)1$
Patrick Glen is an ad,%nct !rofessor at the Geor"etown &ni)ersit Law Center and attorne at the Office of ?mmi"ration Liti"ation at the &#'#
/e!artment of @%stice# $e files briefs and cond%cts motions !ractice in the &nited 'tates Co%rts of A!!eals on behalf of the &#'# Attorne
General# $e also !resents oral ar"%ment in the &#'# Co%rts of A!!eals# Health atri!: "ournal of Law#edicine is a !remier ,o%rnal of le"al
scholarshi! foc%sin" on the intersection of law- ethics- medicine- and !olic# htt!344scholarshi!#law#"eor"etown#ed%4fac!%b47D64
7ringing illegal immigrants within the fold of the official +- healthcare system9%y allowing them
to come within the %ounds of ;edicaid or providing su%sidies through which to purchase private
insurance9co%ld help to significantly lower man of these costs# The idea that e!tending "o)ernment benefits co%ld red%ce
costs is !erha!s co%nterint%iti)e- b%t a similar !ro,ection holds for the co%rse of the ACA itself# As Ors8a" noted- OP!Qro,ections from the C+O
s%""est that the added cost of co)erin" millions more Americans will initiall e*ceed the cost red%ctions incl%ded in the le"islation b%t that
e)ent%all the !attern will be re)ersed#R147 Likewise- adding illegal immigrants, although adding costs at some
points in the system, saves money on a system,wide %asis. 5his is a function of two trends. Girst,
including illegal immigrants in the pool of those insured should spread costs more %roadly across
the system, especially as immigrants tend to see( and use fewer health services. -econd, %y
<
Godwin RL 15
encouraging insurance coverage, pu%lic or private, the government can save costs elsewhere, such
as in emergency ;edicaid spending and %y paying for cheaper, preventative treatments %efore
chronic issues arise. 9ncluding illegal immigrants would increase the ris( pool of either private or
pu%lic insurance programs, while evidence indicates that contri%utions to insurance would outpace
payments to medical providers. 5he mechanism of medical insurance is meant to spread <the ris(
of individuals across a population to ensure that everyone can afford medical care when he or she
needs it.= <9n effect, the healthy su%sidize the sic( as part of a social contract, which recognizes that
everyone may %ecome ill one day.= #ooling ris( in this fashion only wor(s if the pool <includeHsI
enough healthy individuals to (eep overall health care expenditures lower than premium costs so
that high,cost individuals will %e covered.= &arger populations generate <more predicta%le and
sta%le premiums %ecause the high cost of a few is spread out across many.=
Fealthcare Access" +ndocumented immigrants have poor access to healthcare in the
status @uo.
!u7ard and ;assing $))6
Annette /%+ard- (#/#- (#P#$#- is a research associate at the &>C Cecil G# 'he!s Center for $ealth 'er)ices Research- senior cons%ltant for
Comm%nit Care of >orth Carolina- and the associate medical director for the C%alit- E)al%ation- and $ealth O%tcomes &nit in the /i)ision of
(edical Assistance at the >orth Carolina /e!artment of $ealth and $%man 'er)ices# (ark (assin"- (#/#- (#P#$#- Ph#/#- is an ad,%nct assistant
!rofessor of E!idemiolo" at the &>C 'chool of P%blic $ealth- and a clinical e!idemiolo"ist at (edical Re)iew of >orth Carolina- ?nc# $he
"ournal of the %merican edical %ssociation- !%blished contin%o%sl since 1DD3- is an international !eer.re)iewed "eneral medical ,o%rnal
!%blished 4D times !er ear# ?t is the most widel circ%lated medical ,o%rnal in the world# htt!344,ama#,amanetwork#com4article#as!*S
articleidT25=514
Pre)io%s st%dies ha)e demonstrated the e*tent to which Fispanic immigrant populations have difficulty accessing
appropriate, timely health care. ?t is estimated that 44U of le"al (e*ican immi"rants and 66J of undocumented
immigrants lac( health insurance.13 (ost of this difference is explained %y lac( of access to pu%licly
provided insurance, rather than socioeconomic factors and employment status.14 Amon" low.income-
non.citi8en $is!anic indi)id%als- only *4J of adults and *$J of children report having seen a physician in
the past year.4 Compared with native,%orn citizens, immigrants ha)e s%bstantiall lower !er ca!ita health care
e*!endit%res17 and are less li(ely to access am%ulatory care and preventive services.1<. 22 Less is s!ecificall
known abo%t health care %se b undocumented immigrants- altho%"h re"ional st%dies s%""est that the are more li(ely than
le"al immi"rants to use the emergency department and less likel to %se amb%lator care and !re)enti)e ser)ices#4-23-24
#reventive Care" +ndocumented immigrants would gain %etter access to preventive
care under a path to citizenship, there%y lowering costs overall.
len $)1$
+eond benefitin" the risk !ool in this manner- %y finding a way to include illegal immigrants within pu%lic or
private insurance programs, costs could %e saved in current emergency expenditures at %oth the
state and federal levels. As noted earlier- although federal law generally precludes the extension of health
%enefits to illegal immigrants, it does mandate that any individual exhi%iting an emergency medical
condition must %e treated in an emergency room receiving ;edicaid compensation.1=5 5his has the
perverse effect of multiplying emergency medical costs at the same time that costs for preventative
or am%ulatory services remain low. As !r. -usan '(ie has noted, <annual per capita expenses for
health care were 4/J lower for uninsured immigrant children than for uninsured +-,%orn children
15
Godwin RL 11
8%ut emergency department expenditures were more than three times as high.=1=1 7ringing illegal
immigrants within the fold of an insurance program would eliminate the need to rely on emergency
room treatments and all the costs that such reliance entails. 5his would not simply represent a shift
in expenditures from emer"enc medical costs to other forms of reimb%rsement# ?n shiftin" the foc%s from emer"enc medical treatment
to the t!es of !re)entati)e and amb%lator care that are a)ailable %nder !re)ailin" standard ins%rance !ro"rams- costs will %e saved in
the form and intensity of any resulting medical treatment or service. 5he emergency medical costs
of illegal immigrants are high <%ecause immigrant children:s costs per visit HareI much higher,= a
fact lar"el attri%uta%le to <poor access to primary care.=1=2 5hus, in providing access to insurance,
costs can %e saved not only %y decreasing emergency medical expenditures %ut also %y focusing on
less costly care and services. &ess costly care and services could negate the need for the more
expensive emergency procedures that may result from the deterioration of a condition or the
development of chronic issues. The fore"oin" s%mmari8es the benefits of incl%din" ille"al immi"rants in the &' health sstem#
5he inclusion of this healthy class of individuals has the potential to lower premiums and other
medical costs while utilizing a disproportionately small amount of healthcare services. 9t also has
the potential to greatly diminish existing emergency medical expenditures %y %oth state and federal
authorities while saving money in the long term %y focusing resources on typical medical
procedures rather than emergency room utilization. To be s%re- there are %nknown )ariables# Perha!s the !ro)ision of
ins%rance- for whate)er reason- will not lead to a si"nificant dimin%tion in the %se of emer"enc facilities b ille"al immi"rants# Perha!s %sa"e
trends will chan"e si"nificantl if ille"al immi"rants are !ro)ided with ins%rance- thereb %nderc%ttin" one of the was in which costs are
!ro,ected to be sa)ed b their incl%sion# Alternati)el- a large num%er of illegal immigrants ma decide to remain on
the outside of the system in order to avoid detection %y state or federal authorities. 5his would have
the effect of minimizing positive additions to the ris( pool, undercutting the pro2ected savings from
healthy additions with low per,person expenditure trends. ?t is im!ossible to sa with certaint that the incl%sion of
ille"al immi"rants within the bo%nds of an ins%rance !ro"ram will ine)itabl decrease costs# + foc%sin" on the %nderlin" lo"ic of these
ar"%ments- howe)er- !olicmakers can form%late an a!!roach to the iss%e that %nderstands the hi"h !otential for a beneficial o%tcome for all
those within the ins%rance ind%str- whether !ri)ate ins%rers- the ins%red- or the federal "o)ernment# This rationale sim!l contends that ille"al
immi"rants need not be seen as a dra" on state and federal healthcare sstemsB the can !ro)ide real and tan"ible benefits to all those concerned
with a f%ll and fairl f%nctionin" healthcare sstem#
Epidemics" #oor coverage of undocumented immigrants in the status @uo ris(s
epidemics due to lac( of coverage.
ostin, Baco%son, Record, and Fardcastle $)11
Lawrence Gostin- @#/#- an internationall acclaimed scholar- is the Linda /# and Timoth @# ON>eill Professor of Global $ealth Law at the
Geor"etown &ni)ersit Law Center- where he directs the ON>eill ?nstit%te for >ational and Global $ealth Law# $e is also Professor of P%blic
$ealth at the @ohns $o!kins &ni)ersit and /irector of the Center for Law V the P%blicNs $ealth at @ohns $o!kins and Geor"etown &ni)ersities#
Peter @acobson- @#/#- is Professor of $ealth Law and Polic in the /e!artment of $ealth (ana"ement and Polic- &ni)ersit of (ichi"an 'chool
of P%blic $ealth# Hatherine Record- @#/#- ,oined the $ar)ard Law 'chool Center for $ealth Law and Polic ?nno)ation AC$LP?G in @%ne 2512 as
a 'enior Clinical 1ellow# Lorian $ardcastle- @#/#- is a 0isitin" 'cholar at the &ni)ersit of Toronto 'chool of Law# 'he was !re)io%sl a 1ellow
at the OL>eill ?nstit%te for >ational and Global $ealth Law at Geor"etown &ni)ersit Law Center# 1o%nded in 1D62 as the American Law
Re"ister- the &ni)ersit of Pennsl)ania Law Re)iew is the nationLs oldest law re)iew# ?n the 2513.2514 academic ear- the Law Re)iew will
!%blish its 1=2nd )ol%me# htt!344scholarshi!#law#"eor"etown#ed%4c"i4)iewcontent#c"iSarticleT1=5DVconte*tTfac!%b
5he intentional decision not to cover disadvantaged populations, such as illegal immigrants, has
significant pu%lic health implications, particularly in the area of communica%le diseases.
+ndiagnosed and untreated infectious and sexually transmitted diseases, such as F9K, syphilis, and
tu%erculosis Despecially multidrug resistant strainsE, pose a ma2or ris( to the population.
Epidemics" #oor access to care in the status @uo increases the ris( of epidemics.
len $)1$
11
Godwin RL 12
5he tr%e pu%lic health %enefits lie in preventing diseases, including possi%le epidemic and other
contagious conditions, and there%y safeguarding the health of the pu%lic as a whole#1=< Gor instance,
contagious diseases such as tu%erculosis may cause widespread infection if not properly diagnosed
and treated at the outset. 5he unavaila%ility of a service that would permit treatment at the earliest
stages ma(es such diagnosis and treatment less li(ely, which in turn increases the possi%ilities of
%roader infections amongst the entire population.175 5his scenario is applica%le to all types of
infectious disease. 7y ma(ing primary care more difficult or costly to o%tain, the entire population
is opened up to greater exposure to infection and contagious disease. Ahen preventative or
educational care is unavaila%le, the dangers of illnesses li(e heart disease and dia%etes ris( %eing
magnified, and care is ultimately shifted from prevention to more costly treatments. 171 This side of the
iss%e is es!eciall im!ortant beca%se- des!ite the initial "eneral "ood health that immi"rants en,o- their health e)ent%all deteriorates to a le)el
consistent with &' citi8ens#172 #reventative care can ensure %etter health over longer periods of time,
%enefiting %oth the economic and pu%lic health aspects of the healthcare system.
7irth Fealth" #oor access to care in the status @uo leads to poor health outcomes for
immigrant %irths, producing a life of poor health for +.-. citizens.
len $)1$
/enin" co)era"e for !re)entati)e care- b%t !ermittin" emer"enc treatment- also has a !er)erse effect in the conte*t of famil !lannin"# <7y
not providing prenatal care and routine or preventative services,= the system is %nlikel to see fewer babies
born- b%t it will see fewer healthy %a%ies %orn as inade@uate num%ers of expecting mothers will receive
@uality medical care during their pregnancies.173 5hus, the pernicious effects of denying coverage
may %egin at the very %irth of these children Dwho would %e +- citizensE, %ringing a%out a possi%le
lifetime of expensive care that could have %een avoided %y providing certain %enefits and coverage
to the illegal immigrant mother.
!isease Kirulence" #oor access to care in the status @uo increases the ris( of the
emergence of more drug,resistant and virulent diseases.
len $)1$
A more !ressin" concern ma be that non,diagnosis, a delay in diagnosis, inade@uate treatment, or misguided
self,treatment can create even more virulent and drug,resistant strains of diseases. 5his concern is
a function of two factors. Girst, inade@uate access to health care and treatments has %een lin(ed to
the development of drug,resistant strains of certain illnesses. 5his development has %road pu%lic
health implications %ecause hardier disease strains, %eing less suscepti%le to availa%le or prevailing
treatments, would have deleterious effects even within the population that does have access to
medical care. 9n refusing access to important medical services at this threshold step, the current
exclusion of illegal immigrants from the system encourages the development of strains of disease
12
Godwin RL 13
that could prove disastrous for the population as a whole. -econd, %y relegating illegal immigrants
to gray and %lac( mar(ets of medical care, the same end result may occur Ade)elo!ment of more )ir%lent or
treatment.resistant strains of diseasesG through inade@uate self,medication. -tudies in poverty,stric(en areas of
the world note the prevalence of medications that contain inade@uate @uantities of necessary
ingredients.176 -uch treatments not only fail to eradicate the illness, they also help create more
resistant strains of the disease that may have an adverse impact across the entire population.
Fealthcare Access" #oor access to care in the status @uo undermines the healthcare
system and increases emergency room overcrowding.
>enney $))6
Haren Henne is a writer and editor of !%blished ed%cational books for A+/O P%blishin"# A+/O P%blishin" is a leadin" ed%cational !%blisher
of books and di"ital reso%rces for libraries and schools#
htt!344www#sharlandisd#or"4cms4lib4TW2155537D4Centricit4/omain43564?lle"al?mmi"ration#!df
't%dies show that the health care sstem is affected b ille"al immi"ration# 9n 5exas, Lew ;exico, Arizona, and California,
dozens of hospitals have faced %an(ruptcy or closing %ecause federal programs enforce emergency
room care for illegal immigrants. A 1A?R re!ort states that some %order hospitals have reported losses of
.11) million in costs that have not %een reim%ursed for treating illegal aliens in 2555# ;edical services
for illegal immigrants amount to .1,14* per native household. (adeleine Pelner Cosman- Ph#/#- has written an
article for the @o%rnal of American Phsicians and '%r"eons# 'he writes- Owhat is %nseen is their Pillegal immigrantsQ free medical
care that has degraded and closed some of America:s finest emergency medical facilities, and caused
hospital %an(ruptcies" 43 California hospitals are closing their doors#R
ER !eaths and Costs" Emergency room overcrowding increases deaths significantly.
-un, Fsia, Aeiss, Migmond, &iang, Fan, ;cCreath, and Asch $)1$
+en,amin C# '%n- (/- (PP- Renee I# $sia- (/- Robert E# 2eiss- Ph/- /a)id Xin"mond- (/- Li.@%n" Lian"- Ph/- 2ei,%an $an- ('- $eather
(cCreath- Ph/- 'te)en (# Asch- (/# Annals of Emer"enc (edicine- the official ,o%rnal of the American Colle"e of Emer"enc Phsicians- is
an international- !eer.re)iewed ,o%rnal dedicated to im!ro)in" the :%alit of care b !%blishin" the hi"hest :%alit science for emer"enc
medicine and related medical s!ecialties# Annals !%blishes ori"inal research- clinical re!orts- o!inion- and ed%cational information related to the
!ractice- teachin"- and research of emer"enc medicine# ?n addition to "eneral emer"enc medicine to!ics- Annals re"%larl !%blishes articles on
o%t.of.hos!ital emer"enc medical ser)ices- !ediatric emer"enc medicine- in,%r and disease !re)ention- health !olic and ethics- disaster
mana"ement- to*icolo"- and related to!ics# The ,o%rnal welcomes s%bmissions from international contrib%tors and researchers of all s!ecialties#
htt!344www#annemer"med#com4article4'51<=.5=44A12G51=<<.W4abstract
?n s%mmar- we fo%nd that E! crowding is associated with increased mortality, length of stay, and costs in a
large cohort of admitted patients. O%r st%d !ro)ides additional e)idence that E/ crowdin" is a marker for worse care for all E/
!atients who mi"ht re:%ire hos!ital admission# ?n 255=- the ?nstit%te of (edicine described an o)erb%rdened &' emer"enc care sstem and
o%tlined !otential !olic remedies in a re!ort titled 1%t%re of Emer"enc Care3 $os!ital.+ased Emer"enc Care at the +reakin" Point# 1/es!ite
mo%ntin" e)idence that E/ crowdin" is a health deli)er !roblem that red%ces access to emer"enc care- res%lts in worse :%alit of care- and
leads to lower !atient satisfaction-32 there ha)e s%bse:%entl been few sstematic actions to address the crisis of E/ crowdin"# Policmakers
sho%ld heed the recommendations of the ?nstit%te of (edicine and address E/ crowdin" as an im!ortant !%blic health !riorit# 2e st%died
<<6-37< E/ )isits res%ltin" in admission to 1D7 hos!itals# #atients who were admitted on days with high E! crowding
experienced 0J greater odds of in!atient death A<6U conYdence inter)al PC?Q 2U to DUG- ).4J longer hospital
length of stay A<6U C? 5#6U to 1UG- and 1J increased costs per admission A<6U C? 5#7U to 2UG# E*cess o%tcomes
attrib%table to !eriods of hi"h E/ crowdin" incl%ded 355 in!atient deaths A<6U C? 255 to 655 in!atient deathsG- =-255 hos!ital das A<6U C?
2-D55 to D-<55 hos!ital dasG- and ;17 million A<6U C? ;11 to ;23 millionG in costs#
13
Godwin RL 14
*. -ociety including a path to citizenship in immigration reform
legislation would decrease crime and ine@uality, and increase social
mo%ility.
#overty" A path to citizenship would decrease poverty and accelerate assimilation of
undocumented immigrants into American society.
Aainer $)1$
Andrew 2ainer is a 'enior ?mmi"ration Polic Analst for +read for the 2orld ?nstit%te# Andrew has more than a decade of e*!erience workin"
as a researcher- re!orter- and writer in Latin America and in immi"rant comm%nities in the &nited 'tates# $is research and re!ortin" has a!!eared
in the 2all 'treet @o%rnal- the Los An"eles Times- the >ational @o%rnal- C>>- and in !eer.re)iewed academic ,o%rnals s%ch as ?nternational
(i"ration# +read for the 2orld is a non.!artisan instit%te ad)ocatin" !olicies to end h%n"er across the "lobe# + chan"in" !olicies- !ro"rams- and
conditions that allow h%n"er and !o)ert to !ersist- it !ro)ides hel! and o!!ort%nit far beond the comm%nities in which the li)e#
htt!344notes#bread#or"425124114immi"rant.le"ali8ation.as.a.!o)ert.red%ction.tool#html
?n October- Obama told the /es (oines Re"ister that- other than deficit red%ction- immi"ration reform will be the to! !olic ob,ecti)e of his
second term# $e also said this d%rin" his first cam!ai"n for !resident- b%t it didnLt ha!!en# There are m%lti!leZ and debatable Z reasons for this-
b%t one factor for certain is the conflictin" and ambi)alent nat%re of !%blic o!inion on the iss%e# The most contentio%s !art of immi"ration reform
is the le"ali8ation of abo%t 11 million %na%thori8ed immi"rants li)in" in the &nited 'tates# Part of the o!!osition to le"ali8ation concerns its
!ercei)ed im!act on the &#'# econom and workers# The !re!onderance of research indicates that immi"rationZ both le"al and ille"al Z is an
o)erall net benefit for the macro.econom# Le"ali8ation also increases economic o!!ort%nit for %na%thori8ed immi"rants who dis!ro!ortionatel
li)e in !o)ert# The 1<D= ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act le"ali8ed abo%t 2#7 million %na%thori8ed immi"rants and it !ro)ides a nat%ral
e*!eriment on how le"ali8ation has im!acted income and !o)ert amon" immi"rants# 'ocial scientists across the !olitical s!ectr%m ha)e
"enerall fo%nd that legalization increases unauthorized immigrants: wages, putting more money in the
hands of immigrant wor(ers to %etter provide for their families. '!ecificall- A 2515 RA>/ st%d on the effects of
le"ali8ation fo%nd that it led to a 6 !ercent increase in wa"es for le"ali8ed immi"rants# The RA>/ st%d described how le"ali8ation leads to
increased wa"es3 O?lle"al stat%s "enerates barriers that constrain the choices of both workers and em!loers#R A 2552 st%d b economists fo%nd
similar res%lts- concl%din" that the 1<D= amnest led to an a)era"e = !ercent increase in wa"es amon" le"ali8ed immi"rants# Ahile
legalization alone will not lift all immigrants out of poverty, it does provide them with more
opportunity to earn more and pursue further education so that immigrant families are not
consigned a life in the shadow economy. Researchers have identified a <wage penalty= for
unauthorized immigrants that is primarily due to the imperative for authorized immigrants to (eep
a low profile" <Ahen unauthorized wor(ers enter the +.-. la%or mar(et, they may %e less li(ely to
maximize wages than to minimize the ris( of apprehension. 5he ris( of apprehensionNprovides
incentives to wor( in 2o%s that re@uire little investment and training, and have flat experience
profiles. 5hese features of employment impede future investment,,perpetuating and exacer%ating
wage differences.= One of the most recent and com!rehensi)e st%dies of the economic im!act of le"ali8ation was !%blished b the
libertarian Cato ?nstit%te this ear# Re)iewin" the literat%re on the economic im!acts of le"ali8ation- researchers fo%nd e)en lar"er wa"e increases
from le"ali8ation- ran"in" from = to 13 !ercent# The st%d also e*amined almost two decades of research literat%re on the economic im!acts of
le"ali8ation- incl%din" on &#'# born workers# ?t fo%nd mi*ed res%lts# On the one hand- le"ali8ed workers who ha)e com!arable skills to
nati)e.born workers co%ld become labor market com!etitors with nati)es beca%se the are no lon"er bein" held back b their le"al stat%s# On the
other hand- le"ali8ation is likel to lead to increased em!loer com!liance with labor and health and safet re"%lations# /%e to this- some
research indicates that le"ali8ation leads to increases in wa"es amon" some &#'# workers# &egalization will undou%tedly have
positive impacts on the children of unauthorized immigrants 6* percent of whom were %orn in the
+nited -tates. The Cato st%d states- O9ncreased family incomes and greater sta%ility would promote
assimilation and socioeconomic advancement.R The im!act of le"ali8ation on immi"rants and &#'# workers is not a closed
research s%b,ect and not all researchers a"ree# A 2515 st%d b the California P%blic Polic ?nstit%te fo%nd that le"ali8ation wo%ld ha)e little
im!act for both immi"rant and &#'# workers Z either !ositi)e or ne"ati)e Z beca%se man le"ali8ed workers remain in low.skill occ%!ations# 'till-
a ma,orit of analsis indicates that immigrant legalization would help immigrants earn more money,
providing momentum for immigrant families to escape poverty. Ahile other factors li(e
immigrants: education levels and English,language a%ility also constrain their earnings, $) years of
14
Godwin RL 16
social science has found that legalization provides immigrants with opportunity to improve their
economic condition and the chance to contri%ute to an economic growth.
!ecreased Crime" #revious paths to citizenship have decreased crime rates in
undocumented immigrant populations.
7a(er $)1*
'cott +aker is a si*th.ear Ph#/# candidate at the 'tanford /e!artment of Economics and is a 'h%lt8 'cholar and a +radle Research 1ellow#
1o%nded in 1<D2- 'tanford ?nstit%te for Economic Polic Research A'?EPRG is a non!artisan economic !olic research or"ani8ation that %nites
remarkable economic talent from all !arts of 'tanford &ni)ersit# htt!344www#stanford#ed%4[srbaker4Pa!ers4+aker\?RCACrime#!df
5his paper examines the effects that the 9RCA, which legalized close to * million undocumented
immigrants, had on the commission of crime in the +nited -tates %sin" administrati)e data from the ?RCA a!!lication
!rocess# &sin" a )ariet of em!irical estimation strate"ies- ? !ro)ide estimates of the total effect of this le"ali8ation and of the !otential effects on
crime of a new amnest bill# 2ith these s!ecifications- ? e*!loit the lar"e amo%nt of )ariation in both the "eo"ra!hical distrib%tion and
:%asi.random timin" of the le"ali8ations# 9 find persistent decreases in crime of approximately $J,0J
associated with one percent of the population %eing legalized- !rimaril dri)en b a dro! in !ro!ert crimes# 5his
fall in crime is e@uivalent to 1/),))),34),))) fewer crimes committed each year across the nation
due to legalization. 2hile there were drastic chan"es in crime d%rin" the 1<D5s and 1<<5s- the declines in crime that ? find are linked to
le"ali8ation cannot be e*!lained b e*istin" trends- economic conditions- declines in dr%" crimes- chan"es to !olice forces or !rison !o!%lations-
or other common e*!lanations of chan"es in crime rates d%rin" this !eriod# Gi)en that !ro!osals for le"ali8ation similar to the 1<D= ?RCA ha)e
been debated in the &nited 'tates and aro%nd the world- this analsis can !ro)ide some estimates of !otential effects on crime stemmin" from
similar amnest !ro"rams and immi"ration reforms in "eneral# As shown b the )al%es for r in the !re. and !ost.?RCA !eriods- the o)erall le)els
of crime dro! b a!!ro*imatel 1#76U d%e to the effects that le"ali8ation had on the labor market for ?RCA a!!licants# As their wage and
access to full,time employment increased, time spent searching for full,time employment rose Afrom 5
to 5#33G while time spent in the crime sector fell Afrom 5#266 to 5#5= or 5#14- de!endin" on em!loment stat%sG# 5his led to
reductions in crime in the total population. 9 find immediate drops in crime as all 9RCA applicants
are initially legalized and shift towards 2o% search from the crime sector. After these initial drops in
the year that they are legalized, there are then a further gradual declines in crime over
approximately 4 years as 9RCA applicants find full,time 2o%s and shift even further away from the
crime sector.
#olice !istrust" 5he fear of illegal immigrants of deportation prompts them to not
report crimes when they occur and <live in the shadows,= undermining law
enforcement efforts.
ascOn $)1*
Geor"e GascFn is the district attorne of 'an 1rancisco- and the former chief of !olice in 'an 1rancisco and (esa- Ari8ona# C>> is one of the
worldNs lar"est news or"ani8ations# ?t has won 1D Peabod awards- the most !resti"io%s award in media#
htt!344www#cnn#com4251345=41<4o!inion4"ascon.immi"ration.!olicin"4
(embers of the law enforcement comm%nit m%st so%nd their )oices in s%!!ort of com!rehensi)e immi"ration reform for the sake of !%blic
safet and for the sake of o%r co%ntr# ? write this as a former !olice chief in (esa- Ari8ona- who now ser)es as the district attorne of 'an
1rancisco# ? am an immi"rant who came to the &nited 'tates from C%ba at a"e 13- as m famil so%"ht democrac and freedom# ? cherish the
histor and )al%es of o%r nation and ho!e that Con"ress- as it debates immi"ration reform- will co%ra"eo%sl embod the best of o%r co%ntr-
enact a h%mane sol%tion to brin" 11 million %na%thori8ed immi"rants o%t of the shadows and f%ll inte"rate them into American societ# 9n the
a%sence of federal action, states have ta(en immigration law into their own hands, implementing
laws that drive a wedge %etween law enforcement and the people HtheyIwe are sworn to serve. A new
study commissioned %y #olicy &in( found that 30J of &atinos in ChicagoPs Coo( County,
FoustonPs Farris County, &os Angeles and #hoenixPs ;aricopa County were less li(ely to report
crime %ecause they fear police will in@uire a%out their immigration status. ;ore distur%ing is that
6)J of undocumented immigrants surveyed reported they are less li(ely to contact police if they
are victims of crime. Ahen immigrants ,, unauthorized or authorized , feel isolated from the
protection of law enforcement, the entire community suffers. ? saw this e)idenced d%rin" m ten%re as !olice chief in
;esa, Arizona, where local -heriff Boe ArpaioPs reign of terror over the &atino community led to
16
Godwin RL 1=
increased crime rates in his county. Ar!aio blamed most crimes in (arico!a Co%ntr on %ndoc%mented immi"rants and made
racial !rofilin" a common !ractice# $e fre:%entl detained !eo!le who ]looked Latino] %ntil the co%ld !ro)e their stat%s in the co%ntr# ?n direct
contrast to this a!!roach- ? worked side b side with comm%nit "ro%!s and ci)il ri"hts or"ani8ations to foster a sense of tr%st between the Latino
comm%nit and the (esa Police /e!artment# 5he effects of a %ro(en immigration system were a constant thread
in the stories of &atino mothers, fathers and wor(ers who refused to report crime for fear of %eing
detained or deported. 9n ;esa, we lowered crime %y some *)J, according to G79 data ,, a result of
the trust our police department created with all communities, and not %ecause of immigration
enforcement. Law enforcement sho%ld foc%s on comm%nit safet- not enforcin" immi"ration laws# That is not ,%st m o!inion- b%t that of
the &#'# '%!reme Co%rt- which r%led a"ainst Ari8onaNs '+1575- and of man !olice officers and law enforcement officials aro%nd the co%ntr#
Ahen undocumented immigrants live in the shadows, they %ecome wary of law enforcement,
crimes go unreported, perpetrators remain on the loose, and the safety of our communities is
affected.
Employment and Crime" 9ncreased employment opportunities from a path to
citizenship decreases the motivation for committing crimes.
Greedman, 'wens, and 7ohn $)1*
(atthew 1reedman is an associate !rofessor in Cornell &ni)ersitNs /e!artment of Economics whose interests lie at the intersection of labor
economics- !%blic finance- and %rban economics# 'arah +ohn recei)ed a Ph#/# from the &ni)ersit of (arland- Colle"e Park- and st%dies
!olicies related to income and em!loment- immi"ration- and hi"her ed%cation# 'he is a research fellow at the P%blic Polic ?nstit%te of
California# Emil Owens is an associate !rofessor for the Cornell &ni)ersit Colle"e of $%man Ecolo"# $er !rimar area of research foc%ses on
"o)ernment re"%lation of criminal acti)it# 'he recei)ed her Ph#/# in economics at the &ni)ersit of (arland- Colle"e Park#
htt!344works#be!ress#com4matthew\freedman4274

Th%s- "i)en ?RCA affected more and less recent immi"rants to the &#'# differentl- we mi"ht e*!ect the im!act of ?RCA on incenti)es to en"a"e
in the criminal beha)ior of an immi"rant to de!end criticall on the timin" of that immi"ration# 5o the extent that legalized
immigrants co%ld earn higher wages in the formal la%or mar(et after 9RCA, the law sho%ld ha)e lowered
the incentive for this group to engage in illegal %ehavior, and in particular income generating
illegal %ehavior such as car theft, %urglary, larceny, drug sales, and prostitution. Consistent with
this, there is some evidence that aggregate crime rates fell in 2urisdictions where more people were
granted citizenship status through 9RCA in the late 114)s and early 111)s A+aker 2512G# ?n this !a!er- we
!ro)ide new e)idence on the im!ortance of immi"ration !olic in determinin" the criminal beha)ior of new immi"rants using a %ni:%e set
of data on felony charges filed against residents of 7exar County, 5exas, a county that is two hours
from ;exico and receives regular and steady flows of Fispanic immigrants# &sin" a tri!le.differences
framework- we find that federal policies limiting employment opportunities for illegal immigrants are
associated with a ro%ust increase in the incidence of alleged felonies committed %y Fispanic people
living in poorer neigh%orhoods where more people are of ;exican descent, spea( -panish at home,
and were %orn outside the +.-. This findin" is !artic%larl im!ortant toda- as recent s%r)e e)idence from the &#'# s%""ests that
em!loer sanctions are the most !o!%lar !olic for controllin" ille"al immi"ration- and are considered b the !%blic to be more effecti)e than
makin" it easier for immi"rants to obtain le"al stat%s or reinforcin" border controls ATransatlantic Trends 2511G#
-ocial ;o%ility" 9ncome e@uality in the status @uo undermines social mo%ility and
the American !ream.
'EC! $)11
The Or"ani8ation for Economic Coo!eration and /e)elo!ment is an international or"ani8ation hel!in" "o)ernments tackle the economic- social
and "o)ernance challen"es of the "lobal econom# 34 co%ntries- incl%din" the &nited 'tates- are members#
htt!344www#oecd#or"4social4soc4di)idedwestandwhine:%alitkee!srisin"#htm
Rising income ine@uality creates economic- social and !olitical challen"es# ?t can stifle upward social mo%ility,
ma(ing it harder for talented and hard,wor(ing people to get the rewards they deserve.
9ntergenerational earnings mo%ility is low in countries with high ine@uality such as ?tal- the &nited
1=
Godwin RL 17
Hin"dom- and the +nited -tates, and much higher in the Lordic countries, where income is distri%uted
more evenly AOEC/- 255DG# The res%ltin" ine:%alit of o!!ort%nit will ine)itabl im!act economic !erformance as a whole- e)en if the
relationshi! is not strai"htforward# 9ne@uality also raises political challenges %ecause it %reeds social
resentment and generates political insta%ility. ?t can also f%el !o!%list- !rotectionist- and anti."lobali8ation sentiments# Peo!le will no lon"er s%!!ort o!en trade and free markets if the feel that the are
losin" o%t while a small "ro%! of winners is "ettin" richer and richer# Reformin" ta* and benefit !olicies is the most direct and !owerf%l instr%ment for increasin" redistrib%ti)e effects# Lar"e and !ersistent losses in low.income "ro%!s followin" recessions %nderline the im!ortance of
well.tar"eted income.s%!!ort !olicies# Go)ernment transfers Z both in cash and in.kind Z ha)e an im!ortant role to !la in "%aranteein" that low.income ho%seholds do not fall f%rther back in the income distrib%tion# At the other end of the income s!ectr%m- the relati)e stabilit of hi"her
incomes Z and their lon"er.term trends Z are im!ortant to bear in mind in !lannin" broader reforms of redistrib%tion !olicies# ?t ma be necessar to re)iew whether e*istin" ta* !ro)isions are still o!timal in li"ht of e:%it considerations and c%rrent re)en%e re:%irements# This is es!eciall the
case where the share of o)erall ta* b%rdens borne b hi"h.income "ro%!s has declined in recent ears Ae#"# where ta* sched%les became flatter and4or where ta* e*!endit%res mainl benefitted hi"h.income "ro%!sG# $owe)er- redistrib%tion strate"ies based on "o)ernment transfers and ta*es
alone wo%ld be neither effecti)e nor financiall s%stainable# 1irst- there ma be co%nter!rod%cti)e disincenti)e effects if benefit and ta* reforms are not well desi"ned# 'econd- most OEC/ co%ntries c%rrentl o!erate %nder a red%ced fiscal s!ace which e*erts stron" !ress%re to c%rb !%blic
social s!endin" and raise ta*es# rowing employment ma contri%ute to sustaina%le cuts in income ine@uality- !ro)ided the
em!loment "ains occ%r in ,obs that offer career !ros!ects# Policies for more and better ,obs are more im!ortant than e)er# A (ey challenge
for policy, therefore, is to facilitate and encourage access to employment for under,represented
groups, such as o%ths- older workers- women and migrants. This re:%ires not onl new ,obs- b%t 2o%s that ena%le people
to avoid and escape poverty. Recent trends towards hi"her rates of in.work !o)ert indicate that ,ob :%alit has become a concern for a "rowin" n%mber of workers# Polic reforms that tackle ine:%alities in the labor market- s%ch as those
between standard and non.standard forms of em!loment- are needed to red%ce income ine:%alit# The lessons from the Restated @obs 'trate" AOEC/- 255=G- ada!ted to recent e*!erience- !ro)ide im!ortant "%idelines in this res!ect- e#"# with re"ard to more balanced !olic meas%res
between tem!orar and !ermanent em!loment contracts# 1inall- !olicies that in)est in the h%man ca!ital of the workforce are ke# O)er the !ast two decades- the trend to higher educational attainment
has %een one of the most important elements in counteracting the underlying increase in earnings
ine@uality in the long run. #olicies that promote the up,s(illing of the wor(force are therefore (ey
factors for reversing the trend towards further growth in ine@uality. $%man ca!ital !olicies com!rise two main strands# 1irst- better ,ob.related trainin" and
ed%cation for the low.skilled Aon.the.,ob trainin"G wo%ld hel! to boost their !rod%cti)it !otential and f%t%re earnin"s# This re:%ires meas%res to ens%re that trainin" markets !erform better- as well as ens%rin" s%fficient incenti)es for both workers and firms to in)est more in on.the.,ob
trainin" AOEC/- 255=G# To com!ensate for mobilit Astaff t%rno)erG- cor!orate ta* !olicies that enco%ra"e em!loers to make additional in)estments in the h%man ca!ital of their em!loees are warranted Ae#"# ded%ction of trainin" e*!enses as b%siness costsG# The second strand is e:%al access
to formal ed%cation o)er workin" life# Access to tertiary education is important for improving the prospects and living
standards of lower,s(illed people and "i)in" indi)id%als the o!!ort%nit to ac:%ire the skills needed in the labor market# Ed%cational or learnin" acco%nts can be a means to hel! achie)e this ob,ecti)e AOEC/- 2556G- b%t ta*
incenti)es need to be desi"ned in s%ch a wa that the do not dis!ro!ortionall benefit hi"her.wa"e earners in hi"h mar"inal ta* rates# The new OEC/ work !resented in this re!ort shows that there is nothin" ine)itable abo%t "rowin" ine:%alities# Globali8ation and technolo"ical chan"es
offer o!!ort%nities b%t also raise challen"es that can be tackled with effecti)e and well.tar"eted !olicies# Re"%lator reforms can be desi"ned in s%ch a wa that the make markets more efficient and enco%ra"e em!loment while red%cin" ine:%alities at the same time# Labor market and social
!olicies also need to be ada!ted to chan"in" ho%sehold str%ct%res# Policies for incl%si)e "rowth are re:%ired in the c%rrent sit%ation# An !olic strate" to red%ce the "rowin" di)ide between the rich and !oor sho%ld rest on three main !illars3 more intensi)e h%man ca!ital in)estmentB
incl%si)e em!loment !romotionB and well.desi"ned ta*4 transfer redistrib%tion !olicies#
#olitical #articipation" 9ncome ine@uality and lac( of social mo%ility in the status
@uo reduces political participation, and this gets worse over time.
A#-A $))3
The American Political 'cience Association- fo%nded in 1<53- is the leadin" !rofessional or"ani8ation for the st%d of !olitical science and ser)es
more than 16-555 members in o)er D5 co%ntries# 2ith a ran"e of !ro"rams and ser)ices for indi)id%als- de!artments and instit%tions- AP'A
brin"s to"ether !olitical scientists from all fields of in:%irre"ions- and occ%!ational endea)ors within and o%tside academe in order to e*!and
awareness and %nderstandin" of !olitics# htt!344www#a!sanet#or"4im"test4taskforcere!ort#!df
'ome Americans ha)e mo)ed %! the income ladder# +%t %!ward mobilit of the few has not offset the economic dis!arities amon" the man#
?ndeed- man Americans ha)e to work harder ,%st to maintain their c%rrent economic !osition# /is!arities are !artic%larl strikin" when it comes
to com!arisons across races# E)en as the absol%te economic circ%mstances of minorities ha)e im!ro)ed- the median white ho%sehold earned =2
!ercent more income and !ossessed twel)efold more wealth than the median black ho%sehold- with nearl two.thirds of black ho%seholds A=1
!ercentG and half of Fispanic households lac(in" any financial assets, as compared with only a @uarter of
their white counterparts# E)en o%n"- married- black co%!les in which both ad%lts work 9 the shinin" beacons of !ro"ress toward
racial e:%alit 9 still earn 25 !ercent less income than their white co%nter!arts and !ossess a sta""erin" D5 !ercent less net worth# Li)in"
conditions remain fra"ile for the black middle class- and contin%e to la" far behind those e*!erienced b their white co%nter!arts# And- of co%rse-
the life circ%mstances of African.Americans who ha)e not reached the middle class are e)en more !recario%s#7 5he Civil Rights era
helped lift the a%solute levels of income and wealth en2oyed %y African.Americans and Fispanics- %ut they
remain unaccepta%ly far %ehind white America. Persistent and risin" economic ine:%alities in the &nited 'tates res%lt from
a )ariet of ca%ses 9 incl%din" chan"es in technolo"- new forms of famil life- and market forces !romotin" "lobal inte"ration# 'imilar chan"es
face man nations# Iet the !olicies !%rs%ed b )ario%s "o)ernments matter# Re"%lations- ta* !olic- and social !ro"rams can be %sed to b%ffer
risin" socioeconomic ine:%alities in an era of "lobali8ation and demo"ra!hic and technolo"ical chan"e#D Policies !%rs%ed 9 or not !%rs%ed 9
hel! to e*!lain shar!er socioeconomic dis!arities in the &#'# com!ared to more m%ted ine:%alities in Canada- German- 1rance- and other
ad)anced ind%striali8ed co%ntries# Accordin" to o!inion s%r)es- Americans acce!t considerable dis!arities of income and wealth 9 m%ch more
than their E%ro!ean co%nter!arts do#< &ne:%al economic o%tcomes are seen as lar"el reflectin" differences amon" indi)id%als rather than flaws
in the economic sstem# Americans s%!!ort !ri)ate !ro!ert and free enter!rise- and see m%ch of the skewed distrib%tion of wealth and income as
a le"itimate res%lt of differences in indi)id%al talent and effort# +%t it is im!ortant to remember that Americans accept economic
ine@ualities only when they are sure that everyone has an e@ual chance to get ahead 8 to ma(e the
%est of life for the individual and his or her family. overnment is expected to help ensure e@ual
opportunity for all, not to tilt toward those who already have wealth and power. Even more clearly,
17
Godwin RL 1D
Americans cele%rate and expect e@ual democratic rights. Americans fervently %elieve that everyone
should have an e@ual say in our democratic politics, helping to shape what government does. 5hey
em%race whole,heartedly the ideal enunciated %y the +.-. !eclaration of 9ndependence that <all
men are created e@ual,= which in our time means that every citizen 8 regardless of income, gender,
race, and ethnicity 8 should have an e@ual voice in representative government. &ess advantaged
Americans vote less %ecause they lac( the s(ills, motivation, and networ(s that the %etter
advantaged pic( up through formal education and occupational advancement. 9n addition, political
parties and campaigns focus their resources on citizens who are affluent and are already active
politically. &ow and une@ual voting is so%ering in !art %ecause casting a %allot is America:s most
widespread form of political participation. Compared with the half of Americans who vote in
presidential elections, much smaller proportions ta(e part in more demanding and costly activities
such as ma(ing a financial contri%ution to politicians- workin" in an electoral cam!ai"n- "ettin" in to%ch with a !%blic
official- "ettin" in)ol)ed in an or"ani8ation that takes !olitical stands- or takin" !art in a !rotest or demonstration# Cam!ai"n contrib%tors are the
least re!resentati)e "ro%! of citi8ens# 'nly 1$ percent of American households had incomes over .1)),))) in
$))), %ut a who!!in" 10 percent of the donors who made su%stantial contri%utions were in these
wealthiest households.16 1i"%re 2 shows that 0/ percent of those with incomes of .60,))) and more
reported ma(ing some form of campaign contri%ution compared with a mere / percent among
Americans with incomes under .10,))). iving money to politicians is a form of citizen activity that
is, in practical terms, reserved for a select group of Americans. As wealth and income have %ecome
more concentrated and the flow of money into elections has grown, campaign contri%utions give the
affluent a means to express their voice that is unavaila%le to most citizens. 5his undou%tedly
aggravates ine@ualities of political voice.
Guture ;o%ility" Children of undocumented citizens have reduced social mo%ility as
a result of their parent:s legal status.
9saacs $))6
@%lia ?saacs was the Child and 1amil Polic 1ellow from (arch 255= thro%"h (arch 2512# The +rookin"s ?nstit%tion is a non!rofit !%blic
!olic or"ani8ation based in 2ashin"ton- /C# Their mission is to cond%ct hi"h.:%alit- inde!endent research and- based on that research- to
!ro)ide inno)ati)e- !ractical !olic recommendations to stren"then American democrac- and sec%re a more !ros!ero%s international sstem#
+rookin"s is consistentl ranked as the most infl%ential- most :%oted and most tr%sted think tank#
htt!344www#brookin"s#ed%4research4!a!ers425574114"enerations.isaacs
/o children from different famil back"ro%nds ha)e an e:%al shot of risin" to the to! or fallin" to the bottom of the income ladderS (eas%res of
relati)e mobilit address the :%estion of how children mo)e %! and down in social rank- relati)e to their initial startin" !oint or famil
back"ro%nd# 1or this analsis- indi)id%als were assi"ned to one of fi)e income "ro%!s- from lowest to hi"hest- first accordin" to their !arentsL
income and then accordin" to their own income as ad%lts# Children %orn to parents in the top @uintile have the
highest li(elihood of attaining the top, and children %orn to parents in the %ottom @uintile have the
highest li(elihood of %eing in the %ottom themselves. This !henomenon is referred to as OstickinessR at the ends of the
income distrib%tion# As shown in 1i"%re 4- it is fairl hard for children %orn in the %ottom fifth to escape from the
%ottom" 3$ percent remain there and another 3$ percent end up in either the lower,middle or
middle fifth. 'nly 16 percent of those %orn to parents in the %ottom @uintile clim% to one of the top
two income groups. At the other end of the distri%ution, *1 percent of children %orn to parents in
the top fifth attain the top themselves with an additional 23 !ercent landin" in the fo%rth hi"hest :%intile# '%r!risin"l-
American children from low,income families a!!ear to have less relative mo%ility than their
counterparts in fi)e northern European countries- accordin" to a recent international st%d of earnin"s of fathers and sons#
Ahereas 3$ percent of American sons whose fathers had earnings in the %ottom @uintile had low
earnings themselves, the compara%le percentages ranged from $0 to *) percent in !enmar(,
Ginland, -weden, Lorway, and the +nited >ingdom Asee Cha!ter ???- O?nternational Com!arisons of Economic
1D
Godwin RL 1<
(obilitRG# 5he chances of ma(ing it to the top of the income distri%ution decline steadil as one:s
parents: family income decreases. (iddle.income children are onl half as likel as children from the to! fifth to climb to the to!
themsel)es A1< !ercent com!ared to 3< !ercentG# (oreo)er- only / percent of children %orn to parents with family
income in the %ottom fifth move to the very top of the distri%ution, indicating that the <rags to
riches= phenomenon of moving from the %ottom to the top of the income ladder is infre@uent.
>onetheless- there is a fair amo%nt of mobilit- and those born at the to! of the income distrib%tion ha)e no "%arantee of stain" there# 2hile 3<
!ercent of those born into the to! fifth of the income distrib%tion sta there- more than half9the remainin" =1 !ercent9mo)e downward in the
income rankin"#7
Guture ;o%ility" +ndocumented immigrant educational attainment now effects the
economic mo%ility of future generations of American citizens.
9saacs, -awhill, and Fas(ins $))4
@%lia ?saacs was the Child and 1amil Polic 1ellow from (arch 255= thro%"h (arch 2512# ?sabel 0# 'awhill is a 'enior 1ellow and co.director
of the Center on Children and 1amilies at The +rookin"s ?nstit%tion# Ron $askins is a senior fellow in the Economic 't%dies Pro"ram- and
co.director of the Center on Children and 1amilies at The +rookin"s ?nstit%tion# The +rookin"s ?nstit%tion is a non!rofit !%blic !olic
or"ani8ation based in 2ashin"ton- /C# Their mission is to cond%ct hi"h.:%alit- inde!endent research and- based on that research- to !ro)ide
inno)ati)e- !ractical !olic recommendations to stren"then American democrac- and sec%re a more !ros!ero%s international sstem# +rookin"s
is consistentl ranked as the most infl%ential- most :%oted and most tr%sted think tank#
htt!344www#brookin"s#ed%4research4!a!ers425574114"enerations.isaacs
+ considerin" immi"rantsL income before the enter the co%ntr we ma concl%de that the American econom !ro)ides a h%"e boost to the
mobilit of first "eneration immi"rants# ?ndeed- this concl%sion is consistent with the most basic rationale for immi"ration between nations
thro%"ho%t h%man histor9 the !ros!ect of "reater economic o!!ort%nit# +%t what abo%t the mobilit of immi"rants from )ario%s nations and
their children once the reach the &nited 'tatesS To e*amine this :%estion- we t%rn a"ain to the seminal work of +or,as- who has de)elo!ed a
%sef%l method for e*aminin" the inter"enerational mobilit of immi"rant "ro%!s from )ario%s nations# 1irst- he com!%tes the relati)e wa"es
Aa"ain- relati)e to non.immi"rant workersG of male immi"rants from selected nations in 1<75 based on &#'# Cens%s +%rea% data# Then he re!eats
the com!%tation for second "eneration immi"rants 35 ears later for the same national ori"in "ro%!s# Table 1 com!ares the res%lts for both
"enerations of immi"rants from selected co%ntries#25 +or,as finds that immi"rant "ro%!s from ind%striali8ed nations tended to earn more than
a)era"e non.immi"rant workers# ?mmi"rants from 1rance- for e*am!le- earned 1<#D !ercent more than a)era"e non.immi"rant workers# + the
second "eneration in 2555- the relati)e wa"es of workers from ind%striali8ed nations had mo)ed closer to the a)era"e of nonimmi"rant workers#
?n other words- the e*!erienced downward relati)e mobilit in the second "eneration# + contrast- first generation immigrants
from less industrialized countries earned less than typical non,immigrant wor(ers# 1or e*am!le- immi"rants
from (e*ico earned almost 32 !ercent less than nonimmi"rants in 1<75# Thirt ears later- second "eneration workers from less ind%striali8ed
nations had also mo)ed closer to the a)era"e wa"es of non.immi"rant workers- b%t in this case b risin" abo)e relati)e first "eneration wa"es# ?n
the case of second "eneration immi"rants from (e*ico- for e*am!le- relati)e wa"es mo)ed from 32 !ercent less than non.immi"rant workers in
the first "eneration to onl 16 !ercent less than non.immi"rant workers in the second "eneration# 2ith few e*ce!tions- first "eneration
immi"rants from )ario%s nations start at different le)els in the &#'# wa"e distrib%tion and second "eneration workers from the res!ecti)e nations
show wa"e mobilit b mo)in" in the direction of mean wa"es9mo)in" down if the first "eneration had wa"es abo)e the mean and mo)in" %! if
the first "eneration had wa"es below the mean# /es!ite the considerable mo)ement of wa"es between first and second "eneration immi"rants-
the @uestion arises of whether the characteristics of first generation immigrants influence the wages
of the second generation# To e*amine the relationshi! between the wa"es of first and second "eneration immi"rants- +or,as com!%tes
the intergenerational correlation %etween the relative wages of first generation wor(ers from
selected nations and those of second generation wor(ers from the same nations. $e finds that- based on 35
national ori"in "ro%!s- the intergenerational correlation between the 1<45 and 1<75 "enerations is .3$. The correlation between
the 1<75 and 2555 cohorts- based on =1 national ori"in "ro%!s- is similar# These correlations across "enerations are com!arable to those re!orted
for nati)e.born American families# ?n other words- non.immi"rants and immi"rants !ass alon" a!!ro*imatel the same de"ree of economic
ad)anta"e or disad)anta"e to their children# ?n common sense terms- accordin" to +or,as- correlations of this magnitude mean
that a%out 3) percent of the wage differences %etween any two national groups in the first
generation persists into the second generation. +%t what ha!!ens to these correlations if the are ad,%sted for the ed%cation
le)el of the )ario%s national "ro%!sS +or,as finds that the correlations in wa"es between the first and second "enerations are considerabl
diminished when ad,%sted for the ed%cation le)el of the )ario%s national "ro%!s# This findin" s%""ests that one !athwa b which the
correlation in wages is passed on through the generations among the national groups is educational
achievement. Gi)en the low educational achievement of many immigrants now arriving in the +nited
-tates, it might %e expected that average wages in the second generation will continue to drop in the
1<
Godwin RL 25
future. Altho%"h todaLs immi"rant !o!%lation is arri)in" with a mi* of ed%cational back"ro%nds that are similar to that of earlier immi"rants-
the increase in the absol%te n%mber of immi"rants with low le)els of ed%cation- co%!led with the relati)el hi"h correlation between the wa"es of
first and second "eneration immi"rants- s%""est that it ma be increasin"l diffic%lt for second "eneration immi"rants to s%r!ass the wa"es of
non.immi"rants# 1irst "eneration immi"rants certainl e*!erience economic mobilit b comin" to the &nited 'tates- b%t the mobilit of second
"eneration immi"rants is constrained b the characteristics of first "eneration immi"rants that are !assed to second "eneration immi"rants-
!rimaril ed%cation#
25
Godwin RL 21
Affirmative Re%uttals
1. Answers to Giscal Costs answers to the argument that the direct
fiscal costs of granting undocumented immigrants a path to
citizenship would undermine welfare programs for the poor.
AC$ Feritage Goundation -tudy" 5he study authored %y Ro%ert Rector and !r.
Bason Richwine pu%lished %y the Feritage Goundation is deeply flawed.
Garley $)1*
Robert 1arle is an Assistant Professor at the Patterson 'chool for /i!lomac and ?nternational Commerce at the &ni)ersit of Hent%ck# $e
recei)ed his Ph#/# from the &ni)ersit of 2ashin"ton /e!artment of Political 'cience in 2554# The Annenber" P%blic Polic Center of the
&ni)ersit of Pennsl)ania is a !remier comm%nication !olic center fo%nded in 1<<3#
htt!344www#factcheck#or"4251345=4the.immi"ration.bills.=.3.trillion.!rice.ta".24

Critics of a bi!artisan 'enate bill to o)erha%l the nationLs immi"ration sstem falsel claim that it will cost an additional ;=#3 trillion- citin" a
st%d b a conser)ati)e "ro%! that o!!oses the bill# $owe)er- the report is not an analsis of the bill- and it says the cost of
(eeping the status @uo <could run into the trillions= so the net cost would %e su%stantially lower
than ./.* trillion. $ere are the !roblems we fo%nd with what 'en# /a)id 0itter calls the billLs O;=#3 trillion !rice ta"R3 The $erita"e
1o%ndation- which !rod%ced the st%d- be"an its analsis months before the 'enate !lan was %n)eiled# The re!ortLs lead a%thor sas some as!ects
of the bill- s%ch as increasin" "reen cards or le"al !ermanent residence )isas for hi"h.skill workers- wo%ld likel lower the cost !ro,ection# 5he
report says the total cost of the %ill is ./.* trillion over 0) years, %ut the <net increased fiscal costs=
are .0.* trillion. 1%rthermore- the net cost does not ta(e into account what the report calls <a loophole in
existing law= that would allow many immigrants to gain citizenship and tap government programs
at a cost that <could run into the trillions.= 'o- even %y the report:s own estimate, the net cost
compared with the cost of doing nothing 8 could %e far less than ./.* trillion or even .0.* trillion.
The $erita"e cost estimate is o)er 65 ears- a fact that immi"ration bill critics "enerall lea)e o%t when citin" the re!ort# (an economists
warn that pro2ecting costs over such a long period is highly speculative 8 it assumes no changes in
the already unsustaina%le -ocial -ecurity or ;edicare programs, for example. Feritage used less
optimistic assumptions than the nonpartisan Congressional 7udget 'ffice did when it pro2ected the
cost of a similar immigration plan in $))6. 5he C7'- which has et to com!lete an analsis of the c%rrent bill-
concluded that the $))6 %ill would have had a <relatively small net effect on the federal %udget=
over $) years. 5he Feritage report counts the cost of %enefits paid to the children of those living in
the +.-. illegally, even though many of those children %y law are citizens. +ack in 2557- a similar re!ort from the conser)ati)e $erita"e 1o%ndation that
warned of the hi"h cost of OamnestR le"islation hel!ed to doom the fate of a bi!artisan immi"ration bill# 2ith the 'enate c%rrentl considerin" the so.called Gan" of Ei"htLs immi"ration bill- $erita"e released a m%ch.antici!ated %!dated )ersion of the 2557 re!ort# This time- $erita"e
!ro,ects that an immi"ration !lan that incl%des a O!ath to citi8enshi!R will cost American ta*!aers ;=#3 trillion o)er the ne*t 65 ears# O!!onents of the 'enate bill :%ickl sei8ed on the re!ort as e)idence that the &#'# sim!l cannot afford the immi"ration bill# Pro!onents of the bill 9 which
notabl incl%ded a n%mber of Re!%blicans who t!icall ali"n ideolo"icall with $erita"e 9 dismissed the st%d as flawed and misleadin"# The re!ort also came %nder fire from a n%mber of conser)ati)e and libertarian think tanks# (ost acc%se the a%thors of the $erita"e re!ort of
disco%ntin" the !ositi)e effects that immi"ration reform co%ld ha)e on the o)erall econom# Ass%m!tions lie at the heart of e)er economic forecast- and weLll hel! o% sort thro%"h some of the bi""est ones that %nder!in and "%ide the $erita"e forecast# Critics of the $erita"e st%d ha)e
:%estioned se)eral ass%m!tions made b the re!ortLs a%thors 9 e)erthin" from the amo%nt that le"ali8ation co%ld boost earnin"s for immi"rants to the amo%nt of welfare the ma %se# OAny time you ma(e a pro2ection,
the outcome depends on your assumptions-R said 2illiams at the Ta* Polic Center# O2hat o% choose as a startin" !oint
dri)es the answer#R 5he chief criticism of the Feritage report is that it does not ade@uately employ
<dynamic= scoring 8 in other words, it does not account for the full impact of the %ill on the
performance of the overall economy. <Fere we go again. Lew Feritage study claims huge cost for
9mmigration Reform. 9gnores economic %enefits. Lo dynamic scoring,= tweeted Repu%lican -en.
Beff Gla(e- one of the senators of the so.called Gan" of Ei"ht that wrote the bill# Fouse 7udget Chairman #aul Ryan also
was critical of the Feritage study, telling Roll Call- <5he Congressional 7udget 'ffice has found that
fixing our %ro(en immigration system could help our economy grow. A proper accounting of
21
Godwin RL 22
immigration reform should ta(e into account these dynamic effects.= The non!artisan Con"ressional +%d"et Office t!icall does not em!lo dnamic scorin"
when !ro,ectin" the cost of !ro!osed le"islation# +%t in 2557- it made an e*ce!tion for an immi"ration bill that incl%des man of the same "%idin" !rinci!les of Oearned citi8enshi!R as the c%rrent immi"ration bill Atho%"h there are also a n%mber of differencesG# /onald (arron of the Ta*
Polic Center- who was actin" C+O director back in 2557- e*!lained wh3 (arron- (a 33 That non.dnamic a!!roach works well for most le"islation C+O and @CT consider- with occasional concerns when lar"e ta* or s!endin" !ro!osals mi"ht ha)e material macroeconomic im!acts# That
a!!roach makes no sense- howe)er- for immi"ration reforms that wo%ld directl increase the !o!%lation and labor force# Consider- for e*am!le- an immi"ration !olic that wo%ld boost the &#'# !o!%lation b D million o)er ten ears and add 3#6 million new workers# ?f C+O and @CT P@oint
Committee on Ta*ationQ tried to hold !o!%lation constant in their estimates- theLd ha)e to ass%me that D million e*istin" residents wo%ld lea)e to make room for the newcomers# That makes no sense# ?f the allowed the !o!%lation to rise- b%t ke!t em!loment constant- theLd ha)e to ass%me
a 3#6 million increase in %nem!loment# That makes no sense# And if the allowed em!loment to e*!and- b%t ke!t G/P constant- theLd ha)e to ass%me a shar! dro! in &#'# !rod%cti)it and wa"es# That makes no sense# +eca%se increased immi"ration has s%ch a direct economic effect- the
onl lo"ical thin" to do is e*!licitl score the b%d"et im!acts of increased !o!%lation and em!loment# &sin" a limited dnamic scorin" a!!roach- the C+O estimated in a @%ne 4- 2557- fiscal re!ort that the total net cost of the 2557 immi"ration bill o)er 15 ears wo%ld be ;17#D billion# C+O
said the cost for the second decade wo%ld be somewhat hi"her as more immi"rants became le"al- and the costs of benefits increased# +%t !aroll ta* recei!ts wo%ld also "row# 'o b the end of the first 25 ears- C+O estimated that the net effect wo%ld be to increase the earl federal deficit
Ob se)eral billion dollars a earR and characteri8ed this as Oa relati)el small net effect on the federal b%d"et balance o)er the ne*t two decades#R The C+O has not et scored the latest 'enate immi"ration !lan- b%t C+O /irector /o%" Elmendorf has indicated that it intends to %se the same
OdnamicR scorin" methods it %sed in 2557# Elmendorf- (a 23 TodaLs letter notes that C+O and @CT antici!ate takin" a similar a!!roach for an forthcomin" le"islation that wo%ld make ma,or chan"es in immi"ration !olic 9 reflectin" an si"nificant chan"es in the si8e of the &#'#
!o!%lation and labor force in the cost estimate for the bill- and describin" an broader macroeconomic effects in s%!!lemental material# &!date- @%l 33 On @%ne 27- the 'enate !assed '# 744- the +order 'ec%rit- Economic O!!ort%nit- and ?mmi"ration (oderni8ation Act- b a )ote of =D.32#
'n Buly *, the C7' released a cost analysis of the legislation and concluded it would reduce the
deficit %y .104 %illion over the next 1) years, and %y another ./40 %illion in the decade after that. The
$erita"e 1o%ndationLs Rector a"rees that the le"ali8ation of millions of immi"rants will e*!and the G/P# +%t he ar"%es that most of that "ain will be absorbed b the salaries to those immi"rants- and that there will be almost no benefit to e*istin" residents# Rector sas he did em!lo dnamic
elements in his model- b%t he sas his critics are %sin" a dnamic score that does not take into acco%nt the low ed%cational le)el of most c%rrent immi"rants who came to the &#'# ille"all# O(ost !eo!le wo%ldnLt know the difference between a dnamic score and a cheeseb%r"er-R Rector said#
Rector said the models em!loed b those who ha)e attacked his methodolo" Odid not distin"%ish between immi"rants with a Ph#/ and those with a 4th "rade ed%cation# ^ Io% ha)e to be able to s!ecif the t!e of labor o% are brin"in" in#R The fact is- he said- that the a)era"e ed%cational
le)el of immi"rants c%rrentl in the &#'# ille"all is 15th "rade# 2ith an a)era"e a"e of 34- it is %nlikel those immi"rants will "o back to school- Rector said# The benefit to the econom of someone witho%t a hi"h school di!loma is far below that of someone with the a)era"e ed%cational
le)el- he said# One of the a%thors of the 'enate bill- Repu%lican -en. ;arco Ru%io, pushed %ac( a"ainst that ass%m!tion# OTheir PFeritagePsQ
argument is %ased on a single premise, which 9 thin( is flawed-R R%bio said# O5hat is these people are
disproportionately poor %ecause they have no education and they will %e poor for the rest of their
lives in the +.-. Quite fran(ly that:s not the immigration experience in the +.-.R Rector also dismissed the C+OLs 2557 !ro,ection as
misleadin" beca%se it foc%sed on the 15.ear cost# ?n the case of the Gan" of Ei"ht bill- most of the cost comes after the first 15 ears- as it wo%ld take an estimated 13 ears to reach f%ll citi8enshi! 9 at which !oint immi"rants wo%ld "ain access to costl social !ro"rams like welfare# The
a)era"e a"e of immi"rants now in the &#'# ille"all is 34- so it will be decades before man of them are eli"ible for e*!ensi)e retirement !ro"rams like 'ocial 'ec%rit and (edicare# ThatLs wh a lon".term analsis is so critical- he said# At a for%m on the cost of immi"ration held at the
+i!artisan Polic Center on (a 2<- /o%"las $olt8.Eakin 9 a former director of C+O and one.time chief economic !olic ad)iser to the @ohn (cCain !residential cam!ai"n 9 a"reed with Rector abo%t le"islators sometimes mani!%latin" the C+OLs directi)e b !%shin" costs o%tside of a
15.ear window to !resent a rosier economic im!act than le"islation will act%all ha)e in the lon" term# $owe)er- $olt8.Eakin ar"%es that Onew entre!rene%rial )i"orR and other economic benefits from immi"ration wo%ld Oraise the !ace of economic "rowth b nearl a !ercenta"e !oint o)er
the near term- raise G/P !er ca!ita b o)er ;1-655 and red%ce the c%m%lati)e federal deficit b o)er ;2#6 trillionR o)er the ne*t 15 ears# And while itLs tr%e that C+OLs 15. to 25.ear analsis does not ca!t%re some of the lar"er lon".term costs- said Lowrasteh of
the Cato 9nstitute- it also incl%des the front.end cost of ed%catin" the children of immi"rants witho%t incl%din" their older ears when
the will be ta* contrib%tors# >owrasteh argues that Rector ma(es the most pessimistic assumptions a%out
wages, how new immigrants will affect !#, and welfare usage. 5he %aseline used %y the C7' is <a
much %etter %aseline,= he said# Another assumption made in the Feritage report is that the
American,%orn children of immigrants who came to the +.-. illegally should %e counted as part of
the cost. Gor Rector:s study, that added a lot of cost related to such things as pu%lic school
education. 'ome ar"%e that since the children %orn in the +.-. are immediately deemed American
citizens, they should not %e included when considering a cost of illegal immigration. Rector called that more of a !olemical iss%e#
$e ar"%es that it makes no sense not to co%nt the cost of the citi8en children born to those who are here ille"allas those children are here as a res%lt of ille"al immi"ration# 2e donLt take a !osition on whether to incl%de children born in the &nited 'tates to immi"rants who came to the &#'#
ille"all in an analsis of the cost of immi"ration le"islation- b%t we !oint it o%t to show that there are differences of o!inion abo%t an n%mber of ass%m!tions made in s%ch a re!ort#
AC$ Feritage Goundation -tudy" 5he study authored %y Ro%ert Rector and !r.
Bason Richwine pu%lished %y the Feritage Goundation is deeply flawed.
Lowrasteh $)1*
Ale* >owrasteh is the immi"ration !olic analst at the Cato ?nstit%teLs Center for Global Libert and Pros!erit# Pre)io%sl he was the
immi"ration !olic analst at the Com!etiti)e Enter!rise ?nstit%te# $is work has a!!eared in The 2all 'treet @o%rnal- $o%ston Chronicle- +oston
Globe- 'an @ose (erc%r- Richmond Times./is!atch- $%ffin"ton Post- @o%rnal of Economic +eha)ior and Or"ani8ation- and elsewhere# $e has
a!!eared on 1o* >ews and n%mero%s tele)ision and radio stations across the &nited 'tates# $e recei)ed his +#A# in Economics from Geor"e
(ason &ni)ersit and ('c in Economic $istor from the London 'chool of Economics# The Cato ?nstit%te is a !%blic !olic research
or"ani8ation dedicated to the !rinci!les of indi)id%al libert- limited "o)ernment- free markets and !eace# ?ts scholars and analsts cond%ct
inde!endent- non!artisan research on a wide ran"e of !olic iss%es# htt!344www#cato#or"4blo"4herita"es.flawed.immi"ration.analsis
On (onda- $erita"e released a new st%d entitled OThe 1iscal Cost of %nlawf%l ?mmi"rants and Amnest to the &#'# Ta*!aerR b Robert
Rector and @ason Richwine- Ph/# ? critici8ed an earlier )ersion of this re!ort in 2557- ar"%in" that their methodology is so flawed
that one cannot ta(e their report:s conclusions seriously# &nfort%natel- their %!dated )ersion differs little from their
earlier one# ?Lm ,oined in this )iew b a host of !rominent free.marketeers# @im Pethoko%kis at AE?- /o%" $olt8.Eakin at American Action
1or%m- Tim Hane at the $%dson ?nstit%te- and others ha)e all deno%nced the f%ndamentals of the $erita"e re!ort# 5he new Feritage
report is still depressingly static, leading to a massive underestimation of the economic %enefits of
immigration and diminishing estimated tax revenue. 9t explicitly refuses to consider the !#
growth and economic productivity gains from immigration reform8factors that increase
native,%orn American incomes. An overloo(ed flaw is that the study doesn:t even score the specific
immigration reform proposal in the -enate. 9ts flawed methodology and lac( of relevancy to the
current immigration reform proposal relegate this study to irrelevancy. Even worse, the Feritage
study recommends a <solution= to the fiscal pro%lems it supposedly finds. 9t suggests" 7ecause the
ma2ority of unlawful immigrants come to the +.-. for 2o%s, serious enforcement of the %an on hiring
22
Godwin RL 23
unlawful la%or would su%stan tially reduce the employment of unlawful aliens and encourage many
to leave the +.-. Reducing the num%er of unlawful immigrants in the nation and limiting the future
flow of unlawful immigrants would also reduce future costs to the taxpayer. #rofessor Raul
Fino2osa,'2eda of +C&A wrote a paper for Cato last ear where he employed a dynamic model called the
G(i"2 to study comprehensive immigration reform:s impact on the +.-. economy. Fe found that
immigration reform would increase +.-. !# %y .1.0 trillion in the ten years after enactment.
#rofessor Fino2osa,'2eda then ran a simulation examining the economic impact of the policy
favored %y Feritage" the removal or exit of all unauthorized immigrants. 5he economic result
would %e a .$./ trillion decrease in estimated !# growth over the next decade. 5hat confirms the
common,sense o%servation that removing wor(ers, consumers, investors, and entrepreneurs from
America:s economy will ma(e us poorer. 2o%ld decreasing economic growth %y .$./ trillion over the
next ten years have a negative impact on the fiscal condition of the +.-.S Io% betcha# !o the authors
consider the fiscal impact of their preferred immigration policyR Lope. 1or those of %s who O"rew %!R on the
fine !olic analsis lon" !rod%ced b $erita"e- the immi"ration re!ort is a s%!reme disa!!ointment# >o one has done more than $erita"e to
!romote the im!ortance of dnamic scorin"- which is critical to %nderstandin" the tr%e effects of "o)ernment acti)it on the market!lace# 1or that
or"ani8ation to ha)e seemin"l abandoned its core !rinci!les for this im!ortant debate is a stin"in" blow to those of %s who cra)e an honest-
data.dri)en debate on the fiscal merits of !olic#
AC$ Citizenship Giscal Costs" A path to citizenship is actually a fiscal %oon, not a
fiscal cost.
+nder the second scenario9in which undocumented immigrants are granted legal status in $)1* and
citizenship five years thereafter9the 15.ear c%m%lati)e increase in &#'# G/P wo%ld be ;1#1 trillion- and the ann%al increases in
the incomes of Americans wo%ld s%m to ;=53 billion# On a)era"e o)er the 15 ears- this immi"ration reform wo%ld create 16<-555 ,obs !er ear#
Gi)en the dela in ac:%irin" citi8enshi! relati)e to the first scenario- it wo%ld take 15 ears instead of fi)e for the incomes of the
unauthorized to increase $0.1 percent# O)er the 15.ear !eriod- they would earn .0)* %illion more and pay
an additional .133 %illion in taxes9;<1 billion to the federal "o)ernment and ;63 billion to state and local "o)ernments# 1inall-
%nder the third scenario9in which %ndoc%mented immi"rants are "ranted le"al stat%s startin" in 2513 b%t are not eli"ible for citi8enshi! within
15 ears9the c%m%lati)e "ain in &#'# G/P between 2513 and 2522 wo%ld still be a si"nificant9b%t com!arati)el more modest9;D32 billion#
The ann%al increases in the incomes of Americans wo%ld s%m to ;475 billion o)er the 15.ear !eriod- and the econom wo%ld add an a)era"e of
121-555 more ,obs !er ear# The income of the %na%thori8ed wo%ld be 16#1 !ercent hi"her within fi)e ears# +eca%se of their increased earnin"s-
%ndoc%mented immi"rants wo%ld !a an additional ;15< billion in ta*es o)er the 15.ear !eriod9;=< billion to the federal "o)ernment and ;45
billion to state and local "o)ernments# These immi"ration reform scenarios ill%strate that unauthorized immigrants are
currently earning far less than their potential, paying much less in taxes, and contri%uting
significantly less to the +.-. economy than they potentially could# The also make clear that Americans
stand to gain more from an immigration reform policy of legalization and citizenship than they do
from one of legalization alone8or from no reform at all. 1inall- the ma"nit%de of !otential economic "ains de!ends
si"nificantl on how :%ickl reforms are im!lemented# The sooner that le"al stat%s and citi8enshi! are "ranted to the %na%thori8ed- the "reater the
"ains will be for the &#'# econom#
23
Godwin RL 24
$. Answers to 9mmigration answers to the argument that a path to
citizenship would incentivize more illegal immigration, creating
more of the harms immigration reform see(s to solve.
AC$ Amnesty 9ncreases" 5he notion that amnesties increase immigration does not
reflect empirical studies of immigration patterns following amnesties li(e the 9RCA.
'rrenius and Mavodny $))*
Pia Orreni%s is an assistant )ice !resident and senior economist at the 1ederal Reser)e +ank of /allas# (adeline Xa)odn is a !rofessor of
economics at A"nes 'cott Colle"eB she recei)ed a Ph#/# in economics from the (assach%setts ?nstit%te of Technolo"# 'ince its fo%ndin" in 1<=4-
the ,o%rnal &emography has been the !remier !eer.re)iewed ,o%rnal in the field of demo"ra!h# &emography !resents the hi"hest :%alit ori"inal
research of scholars in a broad ran"e of disci!lines- incl%din" anthro!olo"- biolo"- economics- "eo"ra!h- histor- !scholo"- !%blic health-
sociolo"- and statistics# htt!344link#s!rin"er#com4article415#13634dem#2553#552D
This article e*amines whether mass le"ali8ation !ro"rams red%ce f%t%re %ndoc%mented immi"ration# 2e foc%s on the effects of the 114/
9mmigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly $.6 million undocumented
immigrants. 2e re!ort that apprehensions of persons attempting to cross the +.-.,;exico %order
illegally declined immediately following passage of the law %ut returned to normal levels during the
period when undocumented immigrants could file for amnesty and the years thereafter. O%r findin"s
s%""est that the amnesty program did not change long,term patterns of undocumented immigration
from ;exico. At the time of its !assa"e in 1<D=- the ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act A?RCAG marked the bi""est chan"e in &#'#
immi"ration !olic in decades# ?RCA "ranted amnest to %ndoc%mented immi"rants who met s!ecific !ro)isions- re:%ired em!loers to )erif
workersN eli"ibilit to work le"all- and increased f%ndin" for the +order Patrol# >earl 2#7 million indi)id%als- incl%din" o)er 2 million
(e*icans- were "ranted amnest %nder ?RCA# 'pponents of the law claimed that rather than reduce
undocumented immigration as intended, the policy would encourage future undocumented
immigration, notwithstanding tougher %order enforcement, %ecause it set a precedent for granting
amnesty _e#"#- Anderson 1<D=G#N '%ch concerns arose a"ain in 2551- when another amnest came %nder consideration# 'hortl after takin"
office# President Geor"e 2# +%sh considered "rantin" le"al residence to some of the estimated 3 million to 4 million %ndoc%mented (e*ican
immi"rants who were then in the &nited 'tates- a !ro!osal stron"l endorsed b (e*ican President 0icente 1o*# 'ince then- other &#'#
lawmakers ha)e taken %! this ca%se# Pre)io%s research on the effect of ?RCA on flows of %ndoc%mented immi"rants has reached mi*ed
concl%sions# On the basis of data "athered from se)en (e*ican comm%nities in 1<D7.1<D<- /onato- /%rand- and (asse A1<<2bG fo%nd little
e)idence that ?RCA lowered the n%mber of %ndoc%mented (e*icans enterin" the &nited 'tates# &sin" estimates from the decennial cens%s and
the C%rrent Po!%lation '%r)e after correctin" for chan"es in the si8e of the %ndoc%mented immi"rant !o!%lation as a res%lt of ?RCA- 2oodrow
and Passel A1<<5G similarl concl%ded that the annual change in the num%er of undocumented immigrants from
114/ to 1144 was not significantly different from changes prior to 9RCA. ?n contrast# +ean et al# A1<<5G
concl%ded- from ?mmi"ration and >at%rali8ation 'er)ice A?>'G data on a!!rehensions from 1<77 to 1<D<- that apprehensions declined
%y a%out $6J after 9RCA. The ne*t section details the !ro)isions of ?RCA# 2e then disc%ss the data and methods we %sed to
e*amine whether the act led to increases or decreases in %ndoc%mented immi"ration# The res%lts indicate that the flow of %ndoc%mented
immi"rants slowed for si* months after the !assa"e of ?RC A b%t then ret%rned to !re)io%s le)els# Ae did not find that 9RCA
stimulated illegal immigration in the hopes of receiving amnesty- b%t we also did not find that the law disco%ra"ed it
in the lon" r%n#
AC$ Amnesty #erception" 5he flow of illegal immigrants across the +.-.,;exico
%order refutes claims that amnesty programs encourage further illegal immigration.
&inder $)11
@osh%a Linder is "rad%ate st%dent at the American &ni)ersit 'chool of P%blic Affairs with a (asters in P%blic Polic# $he 'u(lic 'olicy is a
!eer.re)iewed ,o%rnal of the American &ni)ersit 'chool of P%blic Affairs /e!artments of Go)ernmentB @%stice- Law and 'ocietB and P%blic
Administration and Polic# htt!344www#american#ed%4s!a4!%blic!%r!ose4%!load42511.P%blic.P%r!ose.Amnest.Effect#!df
The 1<D= ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act A9RCAG marked one of the bi""est chan"es in the histor of &#'# immi"ration !olic# One of
the main !ro)isions in the le"islation was a le"ali8ation !ro"ram that granted amnesty to undocumented immigrants who
24
Godwin RL 26
co%ld !ro)e the had resided in the &#'# contin%o%sl since @an%ar 1- 1<D2# 5his study evaluates the im pact of mass.le"ali8ation
on the flow of undocumented immigrants across the &#'#.(e*ican border %y analyzing a monthly time series
of 7order #atrol apprehensions from Banuary 1166 to !ecem%er $))) within the conte*t of a m%lti)ariate
re"ression model# ?n shar! contrast to !re)io%s st%dies that e*amine the immediate effects of ?RCA on ille"al immi"ration- this !a!er foc%ses on
the lon".term im!act of the amnest !ro)ision# Controlling for factors that influence the flow of illegal
immigrants, including relative economic conditions in the +.-. and ;exico, the level of %order
enforcement , economic li%eralization through trade, and sea sonal fluctuations in the demand for
agricultural la%or in the +.-.- ? find that the 9RCA am nesty program is associated with a decline in the
num%er of %order apprehensions. Altho%"h %sin" a!!rehensions as a !ro* for the flow of ille"al immi"rants !recl%des the
analsis from estimatin" the e*act ma"nit%de of this effect- the findings refute unsu%stantiated claims that the
amnesty program encouraged further illegal immigration. October 1<D=- the &#'# Con"ress !assed the ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act A?RCAG- and President Rea"an si"ned
the le"islation into law in the followin" month# The le"islation aimed to c%rtail the flow of %ndoc%mented immi"rants to the &nited 'tates thro%"h three mechanisms3 sanctions on em!loers who knowin"l hired %ndoc%mented workers- increased border enforcement- and an amnest
!ro"ram for %ndoc%mented immi"rants alread in the &nited 'tates who met certain !ro)isions# A!!ro*imatel 3 million %ndoc%mented immi"rants- incl%din" 2#3 million (e*icans- were "ranted le"al !ermanent resident stat%s %nder ?RCA# ?t sho%ld be noted at the o%tset that ? %se the terms
illegal alien) undocumented immigrant) and illegal immigrant interchan"eabl# Aconsiderable debate has arisen in the !ost.?RCA!eriod o)er the e*tent to which ?RCAhas red%ced the flow of %ndoc%mented immi"rants across the &#'#.(e*ican border# The flow of %ndoc%mented immi"rants
is e*!ected to decline if these !ro"rams red%ce the demand for ille"al immi"rant workers Aand hence their wa"esG or if !otential %ndoc%mented immi"rants belie)e it wo%ld be more diffic%lt to obtain a ,ob in the &nited 'tates#1 Likewise- ti"hter border sec%rit is e*!ected to deter ille"al
immi"ration b lowerin" the !robabilit of a mi"rant s%ccessf%ll crossin" the border# $owe)er- more at issue is whether the amnesty provision affected the flow of
illegal immigrants in the long,term# This :%estion is addressed b determinin" whether there were more or fewer ille"al entrants
in s%bse:%ent ears than there wo%ld ha)e been witho%t the le"islation# At the very least, the amnesty program reduced
the potential population at,ris( to migrate illegally, since nearly half of the newly,legalized
immigrants were ;exican residents who traveled to the +.-. periodically in response to the seasonal
demand for farm la%or. O!!onents of the law ar"%ed that amnest act%all enco%ra"es ille"al entr b settin" a !recedent for f%t%re le"ali8ation meas%res#2 1%rthermore- wides!read amnest creates a snowball effect beca%se relati)es attem!t to
,oin emi"rants who "ained le"al stat%s# 1or e*am!lein res!onse to a !ro!osed amnest bill in 2555- Con"ressman Lamar 'mith %r"ed his fellow lawmakers to heed the lesson of the 1<D= ?RCA# $e claimed that OAmnest act%all !reci!itates e)en more ille"al immi"ration- as indi)id%als
come to ,oin their amnestied relati)es or are enco%ra"ed in the belief that if the can ,%st el%de the +order Patrol and sta %nder"ro%nd for a few ears- the will e)ent%all "et amnest themsel)es#R3 Amore recent re!ort on ille"al immi"ration !%blished b the $erita"e 1o%ndation echoed a
similar sentiment3 OAs e)ident from the last amnest in 1<D=- ille"al aliens will ri"htf%ll )iew the federal "o)ernment as a serial amnest machine that will ca)e once a"ain in 25 ears when the ille"al immi"ration !o!%lation a"ain swells in the &nited 'tates#R Altho%"h these claims ma
ha)e merit- whether the are !oliticall moti)ated or s%bstantiated b em!irical e)idence is %nclear# The debate o)er amnest has once a"ain mo)ed to the forefront of American !olitics- with the c%rrent administration contin%in" to !%sh for immi"ration reform centered on mass.le"ali8ation
of all ille"al aliens c%rrentl in the &#'# 'ince ?RCAis the onl e*am!le of a lar"e.scale amnest !ro"ram in &#'# histor- %nderstandin" its im!act on the lon".term flows of %ndoc%mented immi"rants will be e*tremel %sef%l to !olicmakers and interest "ro%!s on both sides of the debate#
Pre)io%s research on how ?RCAaffects the flow of %ndoc%mented immi"rants has reached mi*ed concl%sions# Controllin" for )ario%s factors that are e*!ected to affect the mi"ration rate- incl%din" relati)e economic conditions and the le)el of border enforcement- 'rrenius
and Mavodny D$))*E find that a!!rehensions of !ersons attem!tin" to ille"all cross the &#'#.(e*ico border declined immediatel
followin" !assa"e of the ?RCA b%t ret%rned to normal le)els d%rin" the !eriod when ille"al immi"rants co%ld file for amnest and the ears
thereafter# Their findings suggest that while the amnesty program may not have reduced undocumented
immigration, it did not encourage it either. &sin" data collected from &#'# mi"rants inter)iewed in se)en (e*ican
comm%nities from 1<D=.1<D<- !onato, !urand, and ;assey D111$E carried o%t a set of time.series e*!eriments that e*amined
chan"es in mi"rantsL beha)ior before and after the !assa"e of ?RCA# The similarl find that there was no consistent change
in either direction in the pro%a%ility of ma(ing a first illegal trip to the +nited -tates. Aoodrow and
#assell D111)E %se a resid%al methodolo" to estimate a !ost. ?RCA meas%rement of the n%mber of %ndoc%mented immi"rants incl%ded in
the 1<DD C%rrent Po!%lation '%r)e ACP'G# After identifin" the !ortion of the %ndoc%mented !o!%lation who came after the ?RCA was enacted-
the conclude that the annual change in the num%er of undocumented immigrants was not
significantly different from that prior to 9RCA. ?n contrast- several studies using %order apprehensions
data from the ?mmi"ration and >at%rali8ation 'er)ices A9L-G find that 9RCA was successful in reducing the
volume of illegal ;exican migration. Controllin" for wa"es and %nem!loment le)els in the &nited 'tates as well as
%nem!loment rates- income le)els- and the si8e of the mi"rant.a"ed !o!%lation in (e*ico- 7ean et al. D111)E conclude that in
the three years after the 9RCA amnesty !ro"ram was !assed- %order apprehensions were $3 percent %elow
the level anticipated in the a%sence of 9RCA# &sin" a similar model- Ahite, 7ean, and Espenshade D111)E
find that the legaliza tion provision of 9RCA contri%uted to a 16 percent decline in the flow of illegal
immigrants during the $*,month period after it was enacted. Accordin"l- all empirical studies that
isolate the impact of amnesty on the flow of illegal immigrants find either a negligi%le effect or
modest decline. Athoro%"h re)iew of the literat%re did not re)eal an st%dies that indicate amnest increased the flow of ille"al immi"rants across the &#'#.(e*ico border# Another shared characteristic of ?RCAacademic literat%re is that most st%dies onl co)er
a short time !eriodB analsis of the sam!le !eriod rarel e*tends !ast 1<D<# This im!oses se)eral limitations on their findin"s# 1irst- the a!!lication !eriod for the le"ali8ation !ro"ram did not end %ntil A!ril 1<DD# /etectin" a decline in ille"al immi"ration d%rin" this !eriod cannot be
attrib%ted to the amnest !ro"ram beca%se it ma also be related to the %ni:%e as!ects of the a!!lication !rocess# The decline ma also reflect the immediate im!act of red%cin" the !o!%lation of !otential ille"al immi"rants b remo)in" those who a!!l for amnest# ?f this im!act dissi!ates in
s%bse:%ent ears- then short.term estimates do not ca!t%re the tr%e effect of amnest on the flow of %ndoc%mented immi"rants# (oreo)er- restrictin" analsis to the ears immediatel followin" !assa"e of the act fails to consider how mass.le"ali8ation mi"ht affect the flow of ille"al
immi"rants in the lon".term#
26
Godwin RL 2=
*. Answers to #olitics answers to the argument that including a
path to citizenship in immigration reform legislation is politically
infeasi%le, and would derail attempts to pass the legislation.
AC$ #oison #ill" ;omentum is gaining for support of a path to citizenship among
Repu%licans.
#reston $)1*
@%lia Preston is a member of The >ew Iork Times team that won the 1<<D P%lit8er Pri8e for re!ortin" on international affairs for its series that
!rofiled the corrosi)e effects of dr%" corr%!tion in (e*ico# The >ew Iork Times is an American dail news!a!er- fo%nded and contin%o%sl
!%blished in >ew Iork Cit since 'e!tember 1D- 1D61# ?t has won 112 P%lit8er Pri8es- more than an other news or"ani8ation# The >ew Iork
Times has established links re"ionall with 1= b%rea%s in the >ew Iork re"ion- nationall- with 11 b%rea%s within the &nited 'tates- and "loball-
with 2= forei"n news b%rea%s# ?t is considered an e*cellent so%rce for national and "lobal research#
htt!344to!ics#ntimes#com4to!4reference4timesto!ics4!eo!le4!4,%lia\!reston4inde*#html
A consistent and solid ma2ority of Americans 8 /* percent 8 crossin" !art and reli"io%s lines favors le"islation
to create a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the +nited -tates illegally, while only 13
percent support legal residency with no option for citizenship- accordin" a re!ort !%blished (onda b the
non!artisan P%blic Reli"ion Research ?nstit%te# Those s%r)eed e*!ressed stron" s%!!ort for citi8enshi! for 11#7 million immi"rants in the
co%ntr witho%t doc%ments ,%st as Con"ress a!!ears to be shiftin" awa from that a!!roach- with Re!%blican leaders in the $o%se workin" on
meas%res that wo%ld offer le"al stat%s witho%t a direct !ath to nat%rali8ation# -ixty percent of Repu%licans, 06 percent of
independents and 6* percent of !emocrats favor a pathway to citizenship- accordin" to the re!ort# (a,orities of
Protestants- Catholics and Americans with no reli"io%s affiliation also s%!!ort that !lan# The instit%te fo%nd that there is slightly less
support for limiting the immigrants to legal residency than there is for a tough enforcement
strategy of identifying and deporting them, a policy favored %y 14 percent# The re!ort is based on res%lts from fo%r national s%r)es- one in Ohio and
foc%s "ro%!s in Ari8ona- 1lorida and Ohio# ?t com!ares res%lts from a national !oll in (arch with a similar bilin"%al tele!hone s%r)e that was cond%cted nationwide in En"lish and '!anish from >o)# = to 15 amon" 1-556 ad%lts- with a mar"in of sam!lin" error of !l%s or min%s three
!ercenta"e !oints# The non!rofit research instit%te cond%cts s%r)es on !%blic !olic iss%es and reli"io%s )al%es# '%!!ort for citi8enshi! has not chan"ed si"nificantl since (arch- the instit%te fo%nd# The "ro%! drilled down into that iss%e- creatin" s%b"ro%!s for the >o)ember s%r)e who
were asked :%estions with differin" le)els of detail abo%t the re:%irements immi"rants sho%ld ha)e to meet to become citi8ens# 2hen there was no mention of re:%irements- 6< !ercent s%!!orted an o!tion for citi8enshi!# 2hen the :%estion s!ecified that immi"rants wo%ld ha)e to !a back
ta*es- learn En"lish and !ass back"ro%nd checks- s%!!ort increased to 71 !ercent# The re:%irements were Omost im!ortant for Re!%blicans-R the re!ort said# 2hen the :%estion did not mention re:%irements- onl abo%t fo%r in 15 Re!%blicans s%!!orted citi8enshi!# 2hen the re:%irements
were described in more detail- Re!%blican s%!!ort increased to =2 !ercent# ?n @%ne- the 'enate !assed a broad bi!artisan bill with a 13.ear !athwa to citi8enshi! that incl%des the h%rdles mentioned in the !oll3 !ain" back ta*es and !assin" En"lish tests and criminal back"ro%nd checks#
$o%se leaders ha)e said the will not take %! that meas%re- b%t will address immi"ration iss%es in smaller bills# 'e)eral $o%se Re!%blican leaders ha)e said the are draftin" meas%res that wo%ld !ro)ide Olawf%l stat%sR for man %na%thori8ed immi"rants b%t no Os!ecial !athR to citi8enshi!#
Accordin" to the re!ort- nearl se)en in 15 Americans belie)e the 13.ear wait for citi8enshi! %nder the 'enate bill is too lon"- while 24 !ercent said it was ,%st ri"ht# The instit%te fo%nd that Americans li)in" in Ohio 9 the home state of '!eaker @ohn A# +oehner- a Re!%blican 9 are
si"nificantl more likel than those in Ari8ona and 1lorida to sa Othin"s ha)e "otten worseR in the co%ntr o)er all and to hold ne"ati)e )iews of immi"rants# >e)ertheless- the s%r)es fo%nd similarl broad a"reement in all three states on a !athwa to citi8enshi!- with =5 !ercent of Ohio
residents fa)orin" that a!!roach# Learly two,thirds of Americans 8 /0 percent 8 say the +nited -tates: immigration
system is either completely or mostly %ro(en. 5hose who say it is <completely %ro(en= have
increased to *3 percent from $* percent in ;arch, according to the report.
AC$ Fastert Rule" 7oehner could easily %rea( the so,called <Fastert Rule= to %ring
an immigration reform %ill to the floor of the Fouse, upon which time it would pass.
>lein $)1*
E8ra Hlein is a col%mnist at The 2ashin"ton Post# $is work foc%ses on domestic and economic !olicmakin"# The 2ashin"ton Post A2PG is an
American dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in 2ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77- makin" it the
areaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- the
second.hi"hest n%mber e)er "i)en to a sin"le news!a!er in one ear#
htt!344www#washin"ton!ost#com4blo"s4wonkblo"4w!4251345=41D4is.boehner.bl%ffin".on.the.hastert.r%le.e)en.he.doesnt.know4
5he Fastert rule .. which states that the '!eaker of the $o%se wonNt brin" le"islation to the floor %nless itNs s%!!orted b a ma,orit of his
own !art .. isnPt actually a rule# ?tNs more of an as!iration# -pea(ers follow it, except when they donPt. ?tNs a bit like m r%le to ,o"
e)er mornin"3 ? alwas follow it- e*ce!t on the mornin"s when ? donNt# ThereNs a cam!ai"n ri"ht now amon" conser)ati)es to make the $astert r%le a real r%le# /o8ens of conser)ati)e "ro%!s and l%minaries sent a letter to $o%se Re!%blicans be""in" them to ]formall !ass the $astert R%le
that re:%ires a Nma,orit of the ma,oritN to !ass le"islation#] 'ome conser)ati)e $o%se Re!%blicans ha)e sent aro%nd a !etition makin" m%ch the same demand# +%t most $o%se Re!%blicans donNt want to make the $astert r%le into an act%al r%le# And the reason- as theNll tell o% behind
closed doors- is that itNs not +oehner who breaks the $astert r%le# $eNd ne)er send a bill to the floor if a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans didnNt want to see it on the floor# ?tNs the $o%se Re!%blicans who break the $astert r%le# 5he reality of the
Fouse is that sometimes a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans want a %ill to pass even if they donPt want
to vote for it. 5hey %ro(e the Fastert rule to pass the Sfiscal cliffS deal. 5hen they %ro(e it again to
pass an aid pac(age after Furricane -andy. And then they %ro(e it again when they passed the
reauthorization of the Kiolence Against AomenPs Act. Ahat all these %ills had in common was that
they presented Repu%licans with a collective action pro%lem. 9t was %etter for Fouse Repu%licans if
the %ills passed. 7ut it was also %etter for a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans to vote against the %ills.
5hat might %e %ecause they oppose the %ill ideologically or %ecause theyPre worried a%out primary
challenges or %ecause they thin( their constituents will punish them. Ahatever the reason, %rea(ing
2=
Godwin RL 27
the Fastert rule allows them to have it %oth ways" Repu%licans can vote against the %ills, %ut the
%ills can pass anyway. 5hree months %efore the fiscal cliff deal 7oehner had no intention of letting a
tax increase onto the floor that most of his mem%ers opposed. -ame goes for -andy aid, and the
Kiolence Against AomenPs Act. 9n each and every case 7oehner fully intended to find a proposal the
ma2ority of his mem%ers supported. 7ut in the end the only proposal a ma2ority of his mem%ers
supported was the proposal to %rea( the Fastert rule and pass the %ill with !emocratic votes. 2ill
immi"ration reform "o the same waS 5hatPs certainly the dominant theory in the -enate, and itPs fairly
common in the Fouse, too. $ereNs how it wo%ld "o3 The 'enate !asses an immi"ration bill in @%l# Then the $o%se !asses a m%ch
smaller- m%ch more conser)ati)e bill in- sa- 'e!tember# The two bills "o to conference- and it :%ickl becomes clear that the $o%se bill is dead
in the water3 ?tNs "oin" nowhere in the 'enate- wo%ld be )etoed b President Obama- and is broadl loathed b the $is!anic comm%nit# After
much huffing and puffing, the Fouse and -enate emerge with something that loo(s more or less li(e
the -enate %ill, and Repu%licans, in order to protect the future of their party, decide to %ring it to
the floor and pass it with !emocratic votes. ?t ma ne)er come to that# ]ThereLs a "ro%! of !eo!le in Re!%blican conference o!!osed to all !ossible immi"ration le"islation-] sas one $o%se Re!%blican aide#
]That "ro%! is )er )ocal b%t theNre somewhat smaller than !eo!le think# (ost members are )er ea"er and )er c%rio%s to see what is act%all introd%ced in the $o%se#] +%t !erha!s it will come to that# Perha!s a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans sim!l wonNt want to )ote for an serio%s
immi"ration reform bill# The :%estion then is whether a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans ne)ertheless want to see s%ch a bill !ass# 2e wonNt know %ntil we "et there# And even if he is willing to %rea( the
Fastert rule, 7oehner will never, ever, under any circumstances suggest that hePll %rea( the rule
until the very moment he does it. To o!en that as a !ossibilit wo%ld rob Re!%blicans of an le)era"e the ha)e in their ne"otiations with the 'enate# 2hich is wh the real test of whether the $astert r%le is a )iable o!tion is the
conser)ati)e mobili8ation to encode it as a real- ironclad r%le of the $o%se# As lon" as $o%se Re!%blicans resist that effort- theNre lea)in" o!en the !ossibilit of breakin" the $astert r%le d%rin" immi"ration reformNs end"ame# +%t we wonNt know if theNre "oin" to do it %ntil we "et to that
end"ame- beca%se the wonNt know if theNre "oin" to do it %ntil the "et to that end"ame#
27
Godwin RL 2D
Legative Case
2D
Godwin RL 2<
Legative Contentions
1. Giscal Costs the direct fiscal costs of granting undocumented
immigrants a path to citizenship would undermine welfare
programs for the poor.
eneric Giscal Costs" Giscal costs triple if illegal immigrants are legalized and
provided a path to citizenship.
Camarota $))6
/r# 'te)en Camarota- /irector of Research for the Center for ?mmi"ration 't%dies AC?'G- a 2ashin"ton- /C.based research instit%te that
e*amines the conse:%ences of le"al and ille"al immi"ration on the &nited 'tates# The Center !romotes an informed debate on com!rehensi)e
immi"ration reform b !ro)idin" !olicmakers- academics- media- and citi8ens with fact.based information on immi"ration# ?n recent ears /r#
Camarota has testified before Con"ress more than an other non."o)ernment e*!ert on the economic and fiscal im!act of immi"ration# ?n
addition- he was the lead researcher on a contract with the Cens%s +%rea% e*aminin" the :%alit of immi"rant data in the American Comm%nit
'%r)e# htt!344cis#or"4articles425574saco!ed571157#html
5he %est predictor of poverty and welfare dependence in modern America is education level. iven
the low educational levels of most recent immigrants, we would expect them to %e a "reater drain on
pu%lic coffers than the immi"rants who came before them# ?ndeed this is the case# ?n 1<<7 the >ational Academ of 'ciences A>A'G
estimated that immi"rant ho%seholds cons%med ;25 billion more in !%blic ser)ices than the !aid in ta*es each ear# Ad,%sted for inflation-
with the current size of the immigrant population today, this fi"%re wo%ld be o)er ;45 billion# ?mmi"rants from Latin
America !lace an es!eciall hea) b%rden on American ta*!aers# 1or e*am!le- 67 !ercent of ho%sehold headed b /ominican immi"rants in
2554 %sed at least one ma,or welfare !ro"ramB 43 !ercent of (e*icans took ad)anta"e of at least one welfare !ro"ramB and abo%t a third of the
ho%seholds headed b immi"rants from Central America- C%ba and Col%mbia %se the welfare sstem# ?n contrast onl 1D !ercent of nati)e
ho%seholds recei)e welfare assistance# The bi""est !roblem for ta*!aers is not ille"al aliens . tho%"h the are a drain# The bi""est !roblem is
less.ed%cated le"al immi"rants- who re!resent the ma,orit of the immi"rants from (e*ico and Central America# ( own research indicates that
the net costs Ata*es !aid min%s ser)ices %sedG to the federal government alone would roughly triple if illegal
aliens were legalized and %egan to use services and pay taxes li(e legal immigrants with the same
level of education.
eneric Giscal Costs" 9mmigrants would gain access to welfare programs, %ut tax
payments would remain modest8poor education causes deficits.
Camarota $))3
/r# 'te)en Camarota- /irector of Research for the Center for ?mmi"ration 't%dies AC?'G- a 2ashin"ton- /C.based research instit%te that
e*amines the conse:%ences of le"al and ille"al immi"ration on the &nited 'tates# The Center !romotes an informed debate on com!rehensi)e
immi"ration reform b !ro)idin" !olicmakers- academics- media- and citi8ens with fact.based information on immi"ration# ?n recent ears /r#
Camarota has testified before Con"ress more than an other non."o)ernment e*!ert on the economic and fiscal im!act of immi"ration# ?n
addition- he was the lead researcher on a contract with the Cens%s +%rea% e*aminin" the :%alit of immi"rant data in the American Comm%nit
'%r)e# htt!344cis#or"4$i"h.Cost.of.Chea!.Labor
Fouseholds headed %y illegal aliens im!osed more than ;2=#3 billion in costs on the federal "o)ernment in 2552 and !aid onl
;1= billion in ta*es- creating a net fiscal deficit of almost ;15#4 billion- or .$,6)) per illegal household# Among the
largest costs are ;edicaid A;2#6 billionGB treatment for the uninsured A;2#2 billionGB food assistance programs
such as food stamps- 2?C- and free school l%nches A;1#< billionGB the federal !rison and co%rt sstems A;1#= billionGB and federal
aid to schools A;1#4 billionG# Aith nearly two,thirds of illegal aliens lac(ing a high school degree, the
primary reason they create a fiscal deficit is their low education levels and resulting low incomes
and tax payments, not their legal status or heavy use of most social services. On a)era"e- the costs that ille"al
ho%seholds im!ose on federal coffers are less than half that of other ho%seholds- b%t their ta* !aments are onl one.fo%rth that of other
ho%seholds# (an of the costs associated with ille"als are d%e to their American.born children- who are awarded &#'# citi8enshi! at birth# Th%s-
2<
Godwin RL 35
"reater efforts at barrin" ille"als from federal !ro"rams will not red%ce costs beca%se their citi8en children can contin%e to access them# 9f
illegal aliens were given amnesty and %egan to pay taxes and use services li(e households headed %y
legal immigrants with the same education levels, the estimated annual net fiscal deficit would
increase from .$,6)) per household to nearly .6,6))- for a total net cost of ;2< billion# Costs increase
dramatically %ecause uns(illed immigrants with legal status .. what most ille"al aliens wo%ld become .. can
access government programs, %ut still tend to ma(e very modest tax payments. Although
legalization would increase average tax payments %y 66 percent, average costs would rise %y 114
percent. The fact that le"al immi"rants with few ears of schoolin" are a lar"e fiscal drain does not mean that le"al immi"rants o)erall are a
net drain .. man le"al immi"rants are hi"hl skilled# 5he vast ma2ority of illegals hold 2o%s. 5hus the fiscal deficit
they create for the federal government is not the result of an unwillingness to wor(. The res%lts of this
st%d are consistent with a 1<<7 st%d b the Lational Research Council- which also found that immigrantsP
education level is a (ey determinant of their fiscal impact#
Education and Aelfare" &ow education levels mean greater use of welfare programs
Richwine and Rector $)1*
@ason Richwine- Ph#/# is the senior !olic analst of em!irical st%dies at The $erita"e 1o%ndation- ha)in" recei)ed his doctorate from $ar)ard
&ni)ersit Henned 'chool for Go)ernment in 255<# Robert Rector is a leadin" a%thorit on !o)ert- welfare !ro"rams and immi"ration in
America for three decades- is The $erita"e 1o%ndationLs senior research fellow in domestic !olic# 1o%nded in 1<73- The $erita"e 1o%ndation is
a research and ed%cational instit%tion9a think tank9whose mission is to form%late and !romote conser)ati)e !%blic !olicies based on the
!rinci!les of free enter!rise- limited "o)ernment- indi)id%al freedom- traditional American )al%es- and a stron" national defense#
htt!344www#herita"e#or"4research4re!orts425134564the.fiscal.cost.of.%nlawf%l.immi"rants.and.amnest.to.the.%s.ta*!aer
5he cost of these "o)ernmental ser)ices is far larger than many people imagine# 1or e*am!lein 2515- the a)era"e &#'#
ho%sehold recei)ed ;31-6D4 in "o)ernment benefits and ser)ices in these fo%r cate"ories# 5he governmental system is highly
redistri%utive# Aell,educated households tend to %e net tax contri%utors" the taxes they pay exceed
the direct and means,tested %enefits, education, and population,%ased services they receive. 1or
e*am!lein 2515- in the whole &#'# !o!%lation- ho%seholds with colle"e.ed%cated heads- on a)era"e- recei)ed ;24-D3< in "o)ernment benefits
while !ain" ;64-5D< in ta*es# The a)era"e colle"e.ed%cated ho%sehold th%s "enerated a fiscal s%r!l%s of ;2<-265 that "o)ernment %sed to
finance benefits for other ho%seholds# 'ther households are net tax consumers" 5he %enefits they receive exceed
the taxes they pay. 5hese households generate a <fiscal deficit= that must %e financed %y taxes from
other households or %y government %orrowing. 1or e*am!lein 2515- in the &#'# !o!%lation as a whole- ho%seholds headed
b !ersons witho%t a hi"h school de"ree- on a)era"e- recei)ed ;4=-6D2 in "o)ernment benefits while !ain" onl ;11-4=< in ta*es# This "enerated
an a)era"e fiscal deficit Abenefits recei)ed min%s ta*es !aidG of ;36-113# 5he high deficits of poorly educated households
are important in the amnesty de%ate %ecause the typical unlawful immigrant has only a 1)th,grade
education. Falf of unlawful immigrant households are headed %y an individual with less than a
high school degree, and another $0 percent of household heads have only a high school degree. 'ome
ar"%e that the deficit fi"%res for !oorl ed%cated ho%seholds in the "eneral !o!%lation are not rele)ant for immi"rants# (an belie)e- for
e*am!le- that lawf%l immi"rants %se little welfare# ?n realit- lawf%l immi"rant ho%seholds recei)e si"nificantl more welfare- on a)era"e- than
&#'#.born ho%seholds# O)erall- the fiscal deficits or s%r!l%ses for lawf%l immi"rant ho%seholds are the same as or hi"her than those for &#'#.born
ho%seholds with the same ed%cation le)el# #oorly educated households, whether immigrant or +.-.,%orn, receive
far more in government %enefits than they pay in taxes. 9n contrast to lawful immigrants, unlawful
immigrants at present do not have access to means,tested welfare, -ocial -ecurity, or ;edicare. This
does not mean- howe)er- that the do not recei)e "o)ernment benefits and ser)ices# Children in %nlawf%l immi"rant ho%seholds recei)e hea)il
s%bsidi8ed !%blic ed%cation# (an %nlawf%l immi"rants ha)e &#'#.born childrenB these children are c%rrentl eli"ible for the f%ll ran"e of
"o)ernment welfare and medical benefits# And- of co%rse- when %nlawf%l immi"rants li)e in a comm%nit- the %se roads- !arks- sewers- !olice-
and fire !rotectionB these ser)ices m%st e*!and to co)er the added !o!%lation or there will be Ocon"estionR effects that lead to a decline in ser)ice
:%alit#
35
Godwin RL 31
Aelfare Costs" ;edical su%sidies, means,tested welfare, and retirement %enefits of
undocumented immigrants contri%ute most of cost of a path to citizenship
5he final phase of amnesty is retirement. +nlawful immigrants are not currently eligi%le for -ocial
-ecurity and ;edicare, %ut under amnesty they would %ecome so. 5he cost of this chan"e would %e very
large indeed# As noted- at the current time D%efore amnestyE, the average unlawful immigrant household
has a net deficit D%enefits received minus taxes paidE of .13,*46 per household# /%rin" the interim !hase
immediatel after amnest- ta* !aments wo%ld increase more than "o)ernment benefits- and the a)era"e fiscal deficit for former %nlawf%l
immi"rant ho%seholds wo%ld fall to ;11-466# At the end of the interim !eriod- unlawful immigrants would %ecome eligi%le
for means,tested welfare and medical su%sidies under '%amacare. Average %enefits would rise to
.3*,1)) per household? tax payments would remain around .1/,)))? the average fiscal deficit
D%enefits minus taxesE would %e a%out .$4,))) per household. Amnesty would also raise retirement
costs %y ma(ing unlawful immigrants eligi%le for -ocial -ecurity and ;edicare, resulting in a net
fiscal deficit of around .$$,6)) per retired amnesty recipient per year. ?n terms of !%blic !olic and "o)ernment
deficits- an im!ortant fi"%re is the a""re"ate ann%al deficit for all %nlawf%l immi"rant ho%seholds# This e:%als the total benefits and ser)ices
recei)ed b all %nlawf%l immi"rant ho%seholds min%s the total ta*es !aid b those ho%seholds# +nder current law, all unlawful
immigrant households together have an aggregate annual deficit of around .03.0 %illion# ?n the interim
!hase Aro%"hl the first 13 ears after amnestG- the a""re"ate ann%al deficit wo%ld fall to ;43#4 billion# At the end of the interim !hase- former
unlawful immigrant households would %ecome fully eligi%le for means,tested welfare and health
care %enefits under the Afforda%le Care Act. 5he aggregate annual deficit would soar to around
.1)/ %illion. 9n the retirement phase, the annual aggregate deficit would %e around .1/) %illion. ?t
wo%ld slowl decline as former %nlawf%l immi"rants "rad%all e*!ire#
&ifetime Costs" Costs add up over immigrants: lifetimes.
9f amnesty is enacted, the average adult unlawful immigrant would receive .01$,))) more in
government %enefits over the course of his remaining lifetime than he would pay in taxes. O)er a
lifetime- the former unlawful immigrants together would receive .1.3 trillion in government %enefits
and services and pay .*.1 trillion in taxes. 5hey would generate a lifetime fiscal deficit Atotal benefits
min%s total ta*esG of ./.* trillion. AAll fi"%res are in constant 2515 dollars#G 5his should %e considered a minimum
estimate. ?t !robabl %nderstates real f%t%re costs beca%se it %nderco%nts the n%mber of %nlawf%l immi"rants and de!endents who will
act%all recei)e amnest and %nderestimates si"nificantl the f%t%re "rowth in welfare and medical benefits# The debate abo%t the fiscal
conse:%ences of %nlawf%l and low.skill immi"ration is ham!ered b a n%mber of misconce!tions# 1ew lawmakers reall %nderstand the c%rrent
si8e of "o)ernment and the sco!e of redistrib%tion# The fact that the a)era"e ho%sehold "ets ;31-=55 in "o)ernment benefits each ear is a shock#
The fact that a ho%sehold headed b an indi)id%al with less than a hi"h school de"ree "ets ;4=-=55 is a bi""er one# (an conser)ati)es belie)e
that if an indi)id%al has a ,ob and works hard- he will ine)itabl be a net ta* contrib%tor A!ain" more in ta*es than he takes in benefitsG# ?n o%r
societ- this has not been tr%e for a )er lon" time# 'imilarl- man belie)e that %nlawf%l immi"rants work more than other "ro%!s# This is also
not tr%e# The em!loment rate for non.elderl ad%lt %nlawf%l immi"rants is abo%t the same as it is for the "eneral !o!%lation# (an !olicmakers
31
Godwin RL 32
also belie)e that beca%se %nlawf%l immi"rants are com!arati)el o%n"- the will hel! relie)e the fiscal strains of an a"in" societ# Re"rettabl-
this is not tr%e# At every stage of the life cycle, unlawful immigrants, on average, generate fiscal deficits
Abenefits e*ceed ta*esG# +nlawful immigrants, on average, are always tax consumers? they never once
generate a <fiscal surplus= that can %e used to pay for government %enefits elsewhere in society.
5his situation o%viously will get much worse after amnesty.
-ocial -ecurity" Amnesty would add to -ocial -ecurity insolvency.
;any policyma(ers %elieve that after amnesty, unlawful immigrants will help ma(e -ocial -ecurity
solvent. ?t is tr%e that %nlawf%l immi"rants c%rrentl !a 1?CA ta*es and wo%ld !a more after amnest- b%t with a)era"e earnin"s of ;24-D55
!er ear- the t!ical %nlawf%l immi"rant will !a onl abo%t ;3-755 !er ear in 1?CA ta*es# After retirement, that individual is
li(ely to draw more than .*.)) in -ocial -ecurity and ;edicare Dad2usted for inflationE for every
dollar in G9CA taxes he has paid. (oreo)er- ta*es and benefits m%st be )iewed holisticall# ?t is a mistake to look at the 'ocial
'ec%rit tr%st f%nd in isolation# 9f an individual pays .*,6)) per year into the -ocial -ecurity trust fund %ut
simultaneously draws a net .$0,))) per year Abenefits min%s ta*esG out of general government revenue, the
solvency of government has not improved. Gollowing amnesty, the fiscal costs of former %nlawf%l immi"rant
ho%seholds will be ro%"hl the same as those of lawf%l immi"rant and non.immi"rant ho%seholds with the same le)el of ed%cation# +eca%se &#'#
"o)ernment !olic is hi"hl redistrib%ti)e- those costs are very large. 5hose who claim that amnesty will not create a
large fiscal %urden are simply in a state of denial concernin" the %nderlin" redistrib%tional nat%re of "o)ernment !olic in
the 21st cent%r#
Guture Costs" Amnesty:s costs compound over generations.
1inall- some argue that it does not matter whether unlawful immigrants create a fiscal deficit of ./.*
trillion %ecause their children will ma(e up for these costs. 5his is not true. Even if all the children
of unlawful immigrants graduated from college, they would %e hard,pressed to pay %ac( ./.*
trillion in costs over their lifetimes. Of co%rse- not all the children of %nlawf%l immi"rants will "rad%ate from colle"e# /ata on
inter"enerational social mobilit show that- although the children of unlawful immigrants will have su%stantially
%etter educational outcomes than their parents, these achievements will have limits. 'nly 1*
percent are li(ely to graduate from college, for example. 7ecause of this, the children, on average,
are not li(ely to %ecome net tax contri%utors. 5he children of unlawful immigrants are li(ely to
remain a net fiscal %urden on +.-. taxpayers- altho%"h a far smaller b%rden than their !arents#
32
Godwin RL 33
$. 9mmigration a path to citizenship would incentivize more illegal
immigration, creating more of the harms immigration reform see(s
to solve.
Amnesty 9ncrease" All grants of amnesty encourage illegal immigration, as the
9mmigration Reform and Control Act proves.
Addington $)1*
/a)id '# Addin"ton is "ro%! )ice !resident for research at The $erita"e 1o%ndation# The leadin" think tank de)elo!s and !romotes conser)ati)e
!%blic !olicies based on the !rinci!les of free enter!rise- limited "o)ernment- indi)id%al freedom- traditional American )al%es and a stron"
national defense# 1o%nded in 1<73- The $erita"e 1o%ndation is a research and ed%cational instit%tion9a think tank9whose mission is to
form%late and !romote conser)ati)e !%blic !olicies based on the !rinci!les of free enter!rise- limited "o)ernment- indi)id%al freedom- traditional
American )al%es- and a stron" national defense#
htt!344www#herita"e#or"4research4re!orts425134534enco%ra"in".lawf%l.immi"ration.and.disco%ra"in".%nlawf%l.immi"ration
On occasion- !ro!osals arise that wo%ld "rant amnesty to aliens who have entered the country unlawfully, or who
entered lawfully %ut whose authorization to remain has expired# The term OamnestR is often %sed loosel with
reference to aliens %nlawf%ll in the &nited 'tates# 'ometimes it refers to con)ertin" the stat%s of an alien from %nlawf%l to lawf%l- either witho%t
conditions or on a condition s%ch as a !ament of a fee to the "o)ernment# 'ometimes it refers to "rantin" lawf%l a%thorit for an alien %nlawf%ll
in the &#'# to remain in the &#'#- become a lawf%l !ermanent resident- or e)en ac:%ire citi8enshi! b nat%rali8ation- either witho%t conditions or
on a condition s%ch as !ament of a fee to the "o)ernment or !erformance of !artic%lar t!es of work for s!ecified !eriods# Amnest comes in
man forms- b%t in all its variations- it discourages respect for the law, treats law,%rea(ing aliens %etter
than law,following aliens, and encourages future unlawful immigration into the +nited -tates.
Presidents ma iss%e !ardons for offenses a"ainst the &nited 'tates- whether iss%ed to an indi)id%al for an offense or to a class of !eo!le for an
offense the ha)e in common# Altho%"h the President ma !ardon for crimes- incl%din" immi"ration crimes- aliens %nlawf%ll in the &#'#- the
!ardon does not constit%te a "rant of a%thorit to remain in the &nited 'tates- and the alien wo%ld remain s%b,ect to remo)al# Con"ress- howe)er-
has the !ower to enact laws that both for"i)e an alienLs !ast crimes and chan"e an alienLs immi"ration stat%s from %nlawf%l to lawf%l# 1or
e*am!le- when Congress enacted the ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act A9RCAG of 1<D= to deal with the large
num%ers of aliens unlawfully in the +.-. at that time, Congress included two %road amnesty
programs. The first ?RCA amnest !ro"ram "enerall re:%ired the Attorne General to ad,%st to the stat%s of lawf%l tem!orar !ermanent
residence aliens %nlawf%ll in the &#'# who had been in the &#'# since @an%ar 1- 1<D2- with s%bse:%ent ad,%stment to lawf%l !ermanent
residence# The second ?RCA amnest !ro"ram "enerall re:%ired the Attorne General to ad,%st to the stat%s of lawf%l Os!ecial a"ric%lt%ral
workersR aliens %nlawf%ll in the &#'# who !erformed <5 das of :%alifin" a"ric%lt%ral work d%rin" the 12 months !recedin" (a 1- 1<D=- and
who co%ld :%alif for immi"rant stat%s- with s%bse:%ent ad,%stment of their stat%s to that of lawf%l !ermanent residence# 'ver $.0 million
aliens %nlawf%ll in the &#'# availed themselves of the 9RCA amnesties to attain legal status# 2hen Con"ress
enacted the ?RCA amnest !ro"rams in 114/ for aliens %nlawf%ll in the &#'#- the population of aliens unlawfully in the
+.-. was an estimated *.$ million# 9n Banuary $)11, that population was an estimated 11.0 million# Grants of
amnest- re"ardless of the form of the reward the "i)e to aliens who knowin"l entered or remain the &#'#- disco%ra"e res!ect for the law- treat
law.breakin" aliens better than law.followin" aliens- and enco%ra"e f%t%re %nlawf%l immi"ration into the &nited 'tates# ?f America s%ddenl
awards le"al stat%s to aliens %nlawf%ll in the &nited 'tates- it will treat them better than aliens abroad who follow AmericaLs immi"ration
!roced%res and !atientl await their o!!ort%nit to "et a )isa a%thori8in" them to come to the &nited 'tates# And- of co%rse- if America
suddenly awards legal status to aliens unlawfully in the +.-., it will, as the 9RCA amnesty proved,
spur more aliens to enter or remain unlawfully in the +nited -tates, in the confident expectation that
Congress will continue enacting future amnesties that provide aliens unlawfully in the +.-. a
shortcut to legal status. The "o)ernment sho%ld !%rs%e a meas%red set of a!!roaches to a wide )ariet of immi"ration iss%es- b%t in all
e)ents e*cl%de amnest for aliens %nlawf%ll in the &nited 'tates#
Amnesty #erception" Amnesty creates a perception that there will %e future
amnesties.
7loom%erg 7usinesswee( $))3
33
Godwin RL 34
+loomber" +%sinessweek is a weekl b%siness ma"a8ine !%blished b +loomber" L#P# 1o%nded in 1<2<- the ma"a8ine was created to !ro)ide
information and inter!retation abo%t what was ha!!enin" in the b%siness world#
htt!344www#b%sinessweek#com4stories42554.51.1D4this.!lan.ma.not."et.a."reen.card
'till- there are si"nificant economic conse:%ences in)ol)ed in brin"in" 15 million ille"al residents into the mainstream# 'e)eral st%dies ha)e
fo%nd that the lar"e.scale flow of chea! labor into the &#'# has contrib%ted to holdin" down wa"es amon" the workin" !oor# 2hile a
"%est.worker !ro"ram co%ld tem!oraril boost labor costs b raisin" wa"es and benefits for formerl ille"al workers- in the lon" r%n- itLs more
likel to lower labor costs# ThatNs beca%se an amnesty program could increase illegal la%or flows into the country
%y ma(ing it clear that anyone who gets into the +.-. is li(ely to remain in the long run.
Guture 9mmigration" Ahile amnesty may slow immigration in the very short,term,
over time, amnesties inevita%ly lead to more immigration.
;eese $))/
Edwin (eese ??? is a noted attorne- law !rofessor- and a%thor who ser)ed in official ca!acities within the Rea"an 2hite $o%se- e)ent%all risin"
to hold the !osition of the 76th Attorne General of the &nited 'tates A1<D6Z1<DDG# $e c%rrentl holds fellowshi!s and chairmanshi!s with
se)eral !%blic !olic co%ncils and think tanks# The >ew Iork Times is an American dail news!a!er- fo%nded and contin%o%sl !%blished in
>ew Iork Cit since 'e!tember 1D- 1D61# ?t has won 112 P%lit8er Pri8es- more than an other news or"ani8ation# The >ew Iork Times has
established links re"ionall with 1= b%rea%s in the >ew Iork re"ion- nationall- with 11 b%rea%s within the &nited 'tates- and "loball- with 2=
forei"n news b%rea%s# ?t is considered an e*cellent so%rce for national and "lobal research#
htt!344www#ntimes#com4255=4564244o!inion424meese#html
Perha!s ? can shed some li"ht# 5wo decades ago- while ser)in" as attorne "eneral under #resident Ronald Reagan- ? was
in the thick of thin"s as Congress de%ated the 9mmigration Reform and Control Act of 114/# The sit%ation toda
bears %ncann similarities to what we went thro%"h then# ?n the mid.D5Ns- many mem%ers of Congress 9 !%shed b the /emocratic
ma,orit in the $o%se and the 'elect Commission on ?mmi"ration and Ref%"ee Polic 9 advocated amnesty for long,settled
illegal immigrants. President Rea"an considered it reasonable to ad,%st the stat%s of what was then a relati)el small !o!%lation- and ?
s%!!orted his decision# ?n e*chan"e for allowin" aliens to sta- he decided- border sec%rit and enforcement of immi"ration laws wo%ld be "reatl
stren"thened 9 in !artic%lar- thro%"h sanctions a"ainst em!loers who hired ille"al immi"rants# ?f ,obs were the attraction for ille"al immi"rants-
then c%ttin" off that o!tion was cr%cial# +eond this- most illegal immigrants who could esta%lish that they had
resided in America continuously for five years would %e granted temporary resident status, which
could %e upgraded to permanent residency after 14 months and, after another five years, to
citizenship. >ote that this !ath to citi8enshi! was not a%tomatic# ?ndeed- the le"islation sti!%lated se)eral conditions3 immi"rants had to !a
a!!lication fees- learn to s!eak En"lish- %nderstand American ci)ics- !ass a medical e*am and re"ister for militar selecti)e ser)ice# Those with
con)ictions for a felon or three misdemeanors were ineli"ible# 'o%nd familiarS 5hese are pretty much the same provisions
included in the new -enate proposal and cited %y its supporters as proof that they have eschewed
amnesty in favor of earned citizenship. 5he difference is that #resident Reagan called this what it
was" amnesty. ?ndeed- look %! the term ]amnest] in +lackNs Law /ictionar- and o%Nll find it sas- ]the 1<D= ?mmi"ration Reform and
Control Act !ro)ided amnest for %ndoc%mented aliens alread in the co%ntr#] &i(e the amnesty %ill of 114/, the current
-enate proposal would place those who have resided illegally in the +nited -tates on a path to
citizenship, provided they meet a similar set of conditions and pay a fine and %ac( taxes. 5he illegal
immigrant does not go to the %ac( of the line %ut gets immediate legalized status, while law,a%iding
applicants wait in their home countries for years to even get here. And thatPs the line that counts. 9n
the end, slight differences in process do not change the overriding fact that the 114/ law and todayPs
%ill are %oth amnesties. There is a !ractical !roblem as well3 the 114/ act did not solve our illegal immigration
pro%lem# 1rom the start- there was wides!read doc%ment fra%d b a!!licants# &ns%r!risin"l- the n%mber of !eo!le a!!lin" for amnest far
e*ceeded !ro,ections# And there !ro)ed to be a fail%re of !olitical will in enforcin" new laws a"ainst em!loers# After a six,month
slowdown that followed passage of the legislation, illegal immigration returned to normal levels and
continued una%ated. +ltimately, some $.6 million people were granted amnesty, and many who
were not stayed anyway, forming the nucleus of todayPs unauthorized population. -o here we are,
$) years later, having much the same de%ate and %eing offered much the same deal in exchange for
34
Godwin RL 36
promises largely dependent on the will of future Congresses and presidents. Aill history repeat
itselfR ? ho!e not# ?n the !ost.<411 world- sec%re borders are )ital# 2e ha)e new tools 9 like biometric technolo" for identification- and
cameras- sensors and satellites to monitor the border 9 that make enforcement and )erification less onero%s# And we can learn from
the failed policies of the past# President +%sh and Con"ress wo%ld do better to start with sec%rin" the border and stren"thenin"
enforcement of e*istin" immi"ration laws# 2e mi"ht also tr im!ro)in" on Ronald Rea"anNs idea of a !ilot !ro"ram for "en%inel tem!orar
workers# The fair and so%nd !olic is to "i)e those who are here ille"all the o!!ort%nit to correct their stat%s b ret%rnin" to their co%ntr of
ori"in and "ettin" in line with e)erone else# This- alon" with serio%s enforcement and control of the ille"al inflow at the border 9 a combination
of incenti)es and disincenti)es 9 will si"nificantl red%ce o)er time o%r !o!%lation of ille"al immi"rants# America welcomes more immi"rants
than an other co%ntr# +%t in (eeping open that door of opportunity, we also must uphold the rule of law
and enhance a fair immigration process- as Ronald Rea"an said- to ]h%manel re"ain control of o%r borders and thereb
!reser)e the )al%e of one of the most sacred !ossessions of o%r !eo!le3 American citi8enshi!#]
Amnesty Causality" +nlawful immigration rose following the 9RCA %ecause of the
amnesty provisions.
-mith $)))
Lamar 'mith is the &#'# Re!resentati)e for Te*asNs 21st con"ressional district- ser)in" since 1<D7# 'mith c%rrentl ser)es as chairman of the
Committee on 'cience- '!ace and Technolo" for the 113th Con"ress# 'mith has !re)io%sl ser)ed on the Committee on $omeland 'ec%rit and
as Chairman on the Committee on the @%diciar# htt!344www#ilw#com4immi"rationdail4>ews42555-1513.Amnest#shtm
The $o%se @%diciar Committee had to s%b!oena new ?>' estimates of the ille"al alien !o!%lation after the ?>'- des!ite n%mero%s re:%ests-
declined to make the information a)ailable to Con"ress# The reason for ?>'L rel%ctance is now ob)io%s# 9llegal immigration
s(yroc(eted after the massive 114/ amnesty for illegal aliens. 'ince the Administration is seekin" another massi)e
amnest this ear- s%ch e)idence is embarrassin"# 5he 9L- now estimates that the net increase in the num%er of
illegal aliens residing in the +nited -tates averaged 306,))) in each of the five years immediately
following the amnesty D1146,1111E rising to a pea( of 040,))) three years after the amnesty. 5his
five year average is 116J higher than the average net increase of 103,))) in the five succeeding
years D111$,111/E, after the effects of the amnesty had dissipated. Ae should heed the lesson of the
114/ amnesty. Amnesty actually precipitates even more illegal immigration, as individuals come to
2oin their amnestied relatives or are encouraged in the %elief that if they can 2ust elude the 7order
#atrol and stay underground for a few years, they will eventually get amnesty themselves. The 1<D=
amnest was a clear fail%re . we now ha)e 6.7 million ille"al aliens residin" in the &#'# The AdministrationLs !ro!osed large,scale
amnesty could plunge us into a new immigration crisis. Amnest is %nfair to the millions of aliens who are waitin"
o%tside the co%ntr for their t%rn to come le"all to the &nited 'tates# Amnesty sends the message" S!o not respect our
laws. 9f you come to the +.-. illegally, you will %e rewarded.S Thro%"h amnest- we are makin" law.abidin" a!!licants
wait lon"er while "i)in" le"al resident stat%s to lawbreakers# Amnest also in)ites fra%d# ?t is e*tremel eas for aliens to !%rchase doc%ments
that show the ha)e resided in the &nited 'tates since a "i)en date# The 1<D= amnest !ro"ram was rife with fra%d# One criminal in)esti"ation-
]O!eration /esert /ece!tion-] chronicled 22-555 amnest a!!lications filed ,%st b one arran"er- of which 6-655 a!!lication were admittedl
fra%d%lent and 4-455 were s%s!ected of bein" fra%d%lent# Amnest !%nishes le"al immi"rants b "reatl increasin" the time it takes for them to
obtain )isas for their famil members abroad# Once ille"al immi"rants are "i)en amnest and lawf%l !ermanent residence- the can !etition for
)isas for their famil members . increasin" b ears the backlo" of !etitions# Lar"el beca%se of the 1<D= amnest- !ermanent residents now ha)e
to wait 4 to = ears to obtain )isas for their wi)es and h%sbands# Amnesty is bad !olic# ?t rewards law %rea(ers- is %nfair to
law.abidin" le"al immi"rants- makes a mocker of o%r laws- and encourages new waves of illegal immigration.
#ast Amnesties" #ast amnesties have 2ust made the pro%lem of unlawful
immigration worse and worse.
;aas $))/
Professor 2illem (aas- Ph/- is @ean (onnet Chair and Associate Professor at Glendon Colle"e- Iork &ni)ersit# $e co.fo%nded the AP'A
'ection on (i"ration and Citi8enshi! and is writin" on !olitics in the >etherlands- E& citi8enshi!- and E%ro!ean and m%ltile)el "o)ernance#
(aas teaches fi)e co%rses on com!arati)e and E%ro!ean !olitics- citi8enshi!- and mi"ration# $e !re)io%sl ta%"ht at >I& and- as Ph/ candidate-
36
Godwin RL 3=
Iale# Iork &ni)ersit is a !%blic research %ni)ersit in Toronto- Ontario- Canada# ?t is CanadaNs third.lar"est %ni)ersit#
htt!344www#ork%#ca4maas4(aas255=#!df
Amnesties %y their nature reward individuals who have engaged in an illegal action or activity# The
th%s re!resent an admission of defeat for "o)ernments- whose other attem!ts to control the acti)it failed# ?t ma be easier for a new "o)ernment
to !ro!ose an amnest9blamin" the fail%re to mana"e the sit%ation on the !re)io%s "o)ernmentLs bl%nders# Amnesty can then %e
2ustified as a means of <wiping the slate clean= so that, henceforth, immigration and the
underground economy will %e %etter managed and controlled. 5he -panish example demonstrates
the systematic failure of such hopes. 'tates ma e*!ect mi"rants who are re"%lari8ed to contin%e to work in the formal rather
than %nder"ro%nd econom- and to lea)e when their !ermission to work or sta e*!ires# ?n realit- howe)er- man mi"rants sink back into
irre"%larit %!on the e*!iration of their !ermits# ?rre"%lar mi"ration is a f%nction of the o!!ort%nities for re"%lar mi"ration# The distinction
between a%thori8ed and %na%thori8ed immi"ration is m%rk and constantl bein" transformed as states chan"e their immi"ration !olicies# 'ome
states !ro)ide few o!!ort%nities for le"al immi"ration- while others are more o!en# 'ome states !ro)ide easier access to residence ri"hts than to
em!loment ri"hts- or the re)erse# This allows for all kinds of t!olo"ies concernin" whether a !erson is an ille"al resident- an ille"al worker-
both- or neither# +eca%se modern states ha)e lon" im!osed restrictions on mi"ration- irre"%lar mi"ration is a lon".standin" !henomenon# >ew is
the sco!e and scale of irre"%lar mi"rations- which a!!ear to be constantl increasin" A@andl 2554G# This sho%ld not be s%r!risin"# ?n a world
where "oods- ca!ital- ser)ices- and information mo)e e)er more freel- increased mobilit of !eo!le sho%ld be e*!ected# /es!ite si"nificant
efforts on the !art of states to sec%re their borders- all borders remain !oro%s# This allows indi)id%al mi"rants Z and- increasin"l- mi"rant
sm%""lers Z to e*!loit weaknesses in borders# Amnesties may temporarily succeed at <wiping the slate clean,= %ut
they rarely address the root causes of migration. Analysis of the world:s largest amnesty, the +nited
-tates: 114/ 9mmigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly $.6 million
irregular immigrants, suggests that the amnesty program did not change long,term patterns of
irregular immigration A/onato et al# 1<<2B Orreni%s and Xa)odn 2553G# 'imilarl- stricter border enforcement "enerall does not
red%ce the n%mber of mi"rants- altho%"h mi"rants ma find it more diffic%lt to cross the border# Enforcement increases the cost of crossin" the
border ille"all- thereb enco%ra"in" irre"%lar immi"rants to sta lon"er to reco%! the cost of entr# The res%lt is that irre"%lar immi"rants are
less likel to ret%rn to their home co%ntries- ca%sin" an increase in the resident stock of irre"%lar immi"rants A(asse 2556G# The b%d"et of the
de)oted to &' border control rose twent.fold in two decades b%t the estimated n%mber of %na%thori8ed forei"ners rose from 3 million to <
million des!ite se)eral re"%lari8ation !ro"rams A(artin 25533 7G# 'ince states cannot control their borders- the all face the choice between
i"norin" the %nder"ro%nd econom or attem!tin" to control it# -pain li(e 9taly, #ortugal, and reece stepped up its
migration control efforts lar"el as a res%lt of the desire to meet E%ro!ean norms and f%lfill re:%irements for ,oinin" the 'chen"en
sstem- which remo)ed border controls on tra)el between 'chen"en states#4 ?n the words of the E%ro!ean Co%ncil- free mo)ement within the
territor of the 'chen"en 'tates is Oa freedom which as a co%nter!art re:%ires not onl the stren"thenin" of the common e*ternal borders and the
administration of third co%ntr nationals- b%t also enhanced co.o!eration between law enforcement a%thorities of 'chen"en statesR AE%ro!ean
Co%ncil 25533 32G# -pain was characterized %y poor administration of its third country nationals, and
thus needed to change its administration of immigrants8as well as the legislative framewor( for
immigration8in order to meet the re@uirements. 'ther southern European states also held
amnesties" 9taly had five %etween 1146 and $))$? #ortugal held three ma2or amnesties, in
111$,111*, 111/, and $))1,$))*? and reece held two ma2or amnesties, in 1114 and $))),$))1.0
5his spate of large,scale regularization campaigns prompted the European Commission to argue
that <regularizations should not %e regarded as a way of managing migration flows. P^5hey shouldQ
%e avoided or confined to very exceptional situations= ACommission of the E%ro!ean Comm%nities 2554G. 9n -pain,
however, regularizations %ecame the norm rather than the exception. ?mmi"rant amnesties also arose in the
conte*t of !artisan differences- which e*!lains wh amnesties often occ%r followin" a chan"e in "o)ernment# ?n its editorial- the conser)ati)e
dail El (%ndo warned that while the amnesty may have solved one pro%lem, it created a much larger one#
5he amnesty wo%ld immediatel increase social sec%rit contrib%tions and aid economic "rowth# +rged on b the re"%lari8ation-
howe)er- there wo%ld soon be Onew migratory avalanches that co%ld brin" !roblems of inte"ration and delin:%encR AEl (%ndo D
(a 25563 6G# The !olitical debate in '!ain9between the amnestLs !ro!onents- who belie)e it not onl makes "ood economic sense b%t also
reflects a concern for ,%stice- and conser)ati)e o!!onents of the amnest- whose )iews this editorial e*em!lifies9remains !olari8ed# !espite
one regularization after another, immigration to -pain has ceaselessly increased. -pain may
therefore constitute the paradigmatic example of the perverse effects of amnesty ARecaJo and /omin"o
25563 21G#
3=
Godwin RL 37
*. #olitics including a path to citizenship in immigration reform
legislation is politically infeasi%le, and would derail attempts to pass
the legislation.
#oison #ill" #ath to citizenship is poison pill for Repu%licans? it would derail
legislation passing in the Fouse of Representatives.
Ru%in $)1*
@ennifer R%bin is an American neoconser)ati)e col%mnist and a blo""er for the 2ashin"ton Post# 'he also !%blished at Politico- >ew Iork Post-
>ew Iork /ail >ews- >ational Re)iew- the @er%salem Post- and a )ariet of other media !%blications# The 2ashin"ton Post A2PG is an
American dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in 2ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77- makin" it the
areaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- the
htt!344www#washin"ton!ost#com4blo"s4ri"ht.t%rn4w!425134114214citi8enshi!.con%dr%m4
!emocratic lawma(ers, li%eral pundits and left,wing pro,immigration reform groups insist a
pathway to citizenship is an essential part of a comprehensive immigration reform %ill. >o wa- no how-
no bill witho%t it- the will tell o%# /emocrats will sa the wonLt abide b Osecond.class citi8enshi!R Aaltho%"h !lent of "reen card holders in
the &#'# ne)er seek citi8enshi!G# A chun( of Repu%licans agree, eyeing citizenship as an unavoida%le political
necessity that is the !rice of border sec%rit and increased )isas for hi"h. and low.skilled workers# 7ut a segment of Fouse
Repu%licans are adamantly anti,citizenship and call the !emocratic position cynical, driven %y
their own self,interest in getting millions of new voters for their party. Gor right,wingers,
citizenship is the stic(ing point. >o matter how ard%o%s the !ath and no matter the fines and !enalties- the AincorrectlG label
anthin" that wo%ld !ro)ide a !ath to citi8enshi! as Oamnest#R AAmnest- of co%rse- is absol%tion and for"i)eness of !ast wron"s with no
!enalt#G ?s there a wa to brid"e this di)ideS Re!# +ob Goodlatte AR.0a#G now sas he ob,ects onl to a Os!ecialR !athwa to citi8enshi!-
whate)er that means# Re!%blicans think there is more fle*ibilit on citi8enshi! than /emocrats will admit# A Re!%blican !ro.immi"ration senator
recentl told me that if !resented with a !lan to le"ali8e most of the 11 million ille"al immi"rants here- /emocrats wo%ld be hard.!ressed to sa
no# >ow comes some e)idence that mi"ht enhance his ar"%ment# 5he Lew Tor( 5imes reports" <;any Fouse
Repu%licans re2ect the -enate path as rewarding immigrants who %ro(e the law. 7ut a growing
num%er of Repu%licans say they remain ready to wor( on immigration and could consider
legalization, if it did not involve any direct route to citizenship. 1or forei"ners # # # who cannot "et a dri)erLs license
in most states and li)e with "nawin" worr abo%t bein" fired or de!orted 9 that wo%ld be eno%"h# The as!ire to become Americans- the said
in !hone inter)iews- b%t wo%ld settle for less if the co%ld work and dri)e le"all- and )isit relati)es o%tside the co%ntr#R 5he 5imes
report candidl ac(nowledges that !emocrats: political opposition to anything less than immi"ration reform is
not matched %y immigrants themselves AOamon" immi"rants there is no consens%sRG# 5hat, correctly or not, has
spurred hope among Repu%licans to de)ise some com!romise on this !oint3 (r# Goodlatte and the ma,orit leader- Re!resentati)e
Eric Cantor- also of 0ir"inia- are workin" on a bill with a !ath to citi8enshi! limited to o%n" immi"rants here ille"all# Re!resentati)e /arrell
?ssa of California- the !owerf%l chairman of the $o%se O)ersi"ht and Go)ernment Reform Committee- said he had been writin" a hbrid bill that
wo%ld "i)e ille"al immi"rants a si*.ear !ro)isional stat%s- allowin" those with famil ties here to nat%rali8e e)ent%all thro%"h re"%lar channels-
and creatin" a lon".term "%est worker !ro"ram for others# Re!resentati)e (ario /ia8.+alart of 1lorida is !ro!osin" earned citi8enshi! for a
broader "ro%!# And three Re!%blicans ha)e si"ned on to a bill b $o%se /emocrats with a !athwa mirrorin" the 'enateLs# 1rom o%r )anta"e
!oint- the immi"ration iss%e will onl be settled once and for all with some sort of !ath- albeit lon" and !lainl not Oamnest-R if citi8enshi! is
a)ailable for the lar"e ma,orit of those who want to !%rs%e it# 'hort of that- immi"rations will be %sed as a wed"e iss%e a"ainst Re!%blicans#
(oreo)er- the administrati)e challen"e in)ol)ed in creatin" two classes of "reen card holders Aone who can "et citi8enshi! and one who canLtG
ma beond the abilities of o%r enforcement sstem# As a !olitical matter- the more hope Repu%licans hold for a deal in
which a large num%er of illegal immigrants effectively are %oxed out of citizenship, the lower the
chances of getting reform completed this year or next. The !resident and /emocrats ha)e e)er reason to dema"o"%e the
iss%e and little incenti)e to b%d"e# ?f a deal is to be done before the 2514 election- Re!%blicans will need to come to terms with a !athwa to
citi8enshi!- definin" Os!ecialR in a wa that still allows most ille"al immi"rants willin" to "o thro%"h the !rocess to ha)e the o!tion of obtainin"
citi8enshi!# The most o!timal time for a deal on immi"ration ma be between 2514 and 251=# ?f the 'enate fli!s to a GOP ma,orit and ObamaLs
!residenc is essentiall stalled- a non.citi8enshi! deal mi"ht be !ossible# ?f /emocrats hold the 'enate Aand certainl if the e*!and their
ad)anta"e and4or take the $o%seG- chances for a deal with a !athwa to citi8enshi! certainl increase# ?ronicall- the !residentLs weakened state
ma make it more diffic%lt to reach a deal in the short r%n# The GOP ma fi"%re it can r%n ,%st on Obamacare and win bi" in 2514- while the
2hite $o%se canLt afford to anno its base b a"reein" to anthin" less than citi8enshi! for most of the 11 million# 5hat leaves illegal
37
Godwin RL 3D
immigrants, many of whom would welcome something less than full citizenship, once again at the
mercy of political currents that !er!et%all force the two sides to di)er"e on what co%ld be a !olitical winner for both#
Fastert Rule" 9nclusion of a path to citizenship in immigration reform is the sole
issue holding up a ma2ority of Repu%licans getting past the Fastert Rule to pass a
reform %ill in the Fouse.
>apur $)1*
'ahil Ha!%r is TP(Ns senior con"ressional re!orter and '%!reme Co%rt corres!ondent# $is articles ha)e been !%blished in the $%ffin"ton Post-
The G%ardian and The >ew Re!%blic# Talkin" Points (emo ATP(G is the !remier di"ital nati)e !olitical news or"ani8ation in the &nited 'tates .
co)erin" a broad ran"e of !olitics- !olic and national news in 2ashin"ton /#C# and beond# 1o%nded in 2555- TP( is one of the most tr%sted
so%rces in !olitical ,o%rnalism# htt!344talkin"!ointsmemo#com4dc4ho%se."o!.hi"hl.%nlikel.to.acce!t.!ath.to.citi8enshi!
9tPs Shighly unli(elyS that a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants can win a
ma2ority of Repu%lican votes in the Fouse- a )eteran GOP con"ressman said 2ednesda# ]? think at this !oint that wo%ld be
hi"hl %nlikel-] Rep. 5om #rice AR.GAG told reporters at a breakfast or"ani8ed b the Christian 'cience (onitor# ]+eca%se 9
donPt thin( therePs any trust in o%r conference in the administration to enforce the c%rrent laws that are on the books as
the relate to immi"ration-] he e*!lained# ]And not ,%st this administration .. itNs been !re)io%s administrations as well# ### The !romises made in
Pthe immi"ration reform effort ofQ 1<D= ha)e been broken#] Price said the first ste! to reb%ildin" that tr%st wo%ld be to sec%re the border# The
con"ressmanNs comments- if acc%rate- s%""est that itPll %e a tough slog for proponents of a pathway to citizenship to
pass the policy in the Fouse. 9t would re@uire -pea(er Bohn 7oehner AR.O$G to permit an
immigration %ill to come to the floor without the support of half his conference ,, an approach he
has typically re2ected and shown little appetite for. Price ad)ocated for a !iecemeal .. as o!!osed to com!rehensi)e ..
a!!roach to reform# ]2o%ldnNt we be better off in the area of immi"ration if we had done a bill e)er Con"ress for the last fewS 2o%ldnNt we be
f%rther aheadS] he said# ]? do belie)e Pwe sho%ldQ ha)e the iss%e be sol)ed in !ortions as o!!osed to this com!rehensi)e o)erall sol%tion that
clearl hasnNt worked in the !ast and ? donNt see it workin" now#] Price is one of the more conser)ati)e members of the $o%se and has ser)ed in
leadershi! !ositions# $e lost a bid this ear to be GOP Conference Chairman# $e has a lon" o!!osed a !athwa to citi8enshi! and )oted a"ainst
benefits and incenti)es for %na%thori8ed immi"rants#
Repu%lican ;a2ority" A large ma2ority of Repu%licans constituents are adamantly
opposed to a path to citizenship for immigrants8undermines potential Repu%lican
Fouse support.
Cillizza and -ullivan $)1*
Chris Cilli88a and 'ean '%lli)an co)er national !olitics for The 1i*- the PostLs to! !olitical blo"# The 2ashin"ton Post A2PG is an American dail
news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in 2ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77- makin" it the areaNs oldest e*tant
news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- the second.hi"hest n%mber e)er
"i)en to a sin"le news!a!er in one ear#
htt!344www#washin"ton!ost#com4blo"s4the.fi*4w!425134544534wh.a.!ath.to.citi8enshi!.remains.!oliticall.!erilo%s.for.re!%blicans4
>earl si* in 15 Americans s%!!ort a !ath to citi8enshi! for %ndoc%mented workers in a new 2ashin"ton Post.A+C >ews !oll- b%t that n%mber
is drasticall lower amon" self.identified Re!%blicans Z e)idence of the !olitical !eril for 1lorida 'en# (arco R%bio and other GOP !oliticians
in)ol)ed in the ne"otiations on a com!romise immi"ration bill# Bust *0 percent of Repu%licans support the idea of a
path to citizenship while /) percent oppose it in the #ost,A7C poll, which was produced %y Capital
9nsight. Among self,descri%ed <conservative Repu%licans,= the num%ers are even more negative
toward a path, with 2ust *) percent supporting the idea. And, Repu%lican support is waning 8
tic(ing down seven points since a #ost,A7C survey in Ge%ruary# At the same time- /emocratic s%!!ort is reachin"
new hi"hs 9 mo)in" %! to 73 !ercent from =D !ercent in 1ebr%ar 9 and more than ei"ht in ten AD4 !ercentG self.identified liberal /emocrats
s%!!ort !ro)idin" a !ath for %ndoc%mented workers to "ain le"al stat%s# 5hose num%ers ma(e two things clear" 1E 5hat
the path to citizenship de%ate is increasingly divided along partisan lines Dthere is a *4,point gap
%etween !emocrats and Repu%licans on the <support= @uestionE and $E 5hat %eing involved in a
comprehensive immigration reform deal might not %e such good politics 8 at least as it relates to
the party:s %ase 8 for am%itious Repu%licans. 2eL)e written before abo%t the risk R%bio- who is widel re"arded as the
frontr%nner for the Re!%blican !residential nomination in 251=- is takin" b in)ol)in" himself in the OGan" of D` ne"otiations on a
com!rehensi)e immi"ration !lan# And- itLs clear that his statement o)er the weekend abo%t no deal ha)in" been reached was desi"ned to make
clear to conser)ati)es that he wasnLt ca!it%latin" to the likes of >ew Iork 'en# Ch%ck 'ch%mer on a deal# +%t- the n%mbers in the Post.A+C !oll
3D
Godwin RL 3<
s%""est that R%bio 9 and other Re!%blicans who )ote for a bill that incl%des a !ath to citi8enshi! 9 co%ld well face the ire of their base
re"ardless of what else is in the le"islation# #ast attempts to do a <%ig= immigration pac(age have %een
hamstrung %y similar sentiments within the '# %ase. AAri8ona 'en# @ohn (cCain walked awa from attem!ts to craft
a com!rehensi)e bill when it became clear that his in)ol)ement was destroin" his chances at bein" the Re!%blican !residential nominee in
255D#G ?tLs not clear whether seein" n%mbers like these will make the R%bio skittish and tem!ted to walk awa from the !ros!ect of a deal# '%ch
a mo)e wo%ld be a ma,or setback in the GOPLs attem!ts to co%rt $is!anic )oters AD5 !ercent of whom s%!!ort a !ath to citi8enshi!G and co%ld
dama"e Re!%blicansL chances of winnin" back the 2hite $o%se in 251=# ?tLs eas to critici8e that short.term."ain.lon".term.!ain thinkin" from
afar- b%t remember that the first concern for R%bio and man of his ambitio%s GOP collea"%es is winnin" the !artLs nomination# And these
n%mbers s%""est that backin" a !ath to citi8enshi! co%ld be to*ic to those ho!es#
Bohn 7oehner" 7oehner is not going to %ring any immigration %ill to a vote unless it
has the support of a ma2ority of Repu%licans in the Fouse.
7la(e $)1*
Aaron +lake co)ers national !olitics at the 2ashin"ton Post- where he writes re"%larl for the 1i*- the PostLs to! !olitical blo"# The 2ashin"ton
Post A2PG is an American dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in 2ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77-
makin" it the areaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- the
htt!344www#washin"ton!ost#com4blo"s4!ost.!olitics4w!4251345=4274boehner.declares.immi"ration.bill.will.be.s%b,ect.to.hastert.r%le4
Fouse -pea(er Bohn 7oehner AR.OhioG said Th%rsda that any immigration legislation will have to have
the support of a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans in order to come to a vote# +oehner has s%""ested as m%ch
before- sain" last week that he had ]no intention] of )iolatin" the so.called ]$astert R%le] .. which re:%ires a ma,orit of the ma,orit !art to
s%!!ort a bill before it comes to a )ote# +%t that statement A]no intention]G a!!eared to "i)e him a little wi""le room# $is statement at a news
conference Th%rsda left no leewa at all# Fe said the Fastert Rule would also apply to any legislation that
results from a conference committee %etween the Fouse and -enate ,, the li(ely result of the
FousePs plan to pass its own immigration %ill, rather than the -enatePs version. SGor any legislation,
including a conference report, to pass the Fouse, 9t:s going to have to %e a %ill that has the support
of the ma2ority of our mem%ers-] +oehner said# +oehner also echoed !ast statements that the 'enate bill will not come to a )ote in
the $o%se# The bill is set to !ass in the 'enate with abo%t two.thirds of the chamber s%!!ortin" it# +%t e)en as two.thirds of the 'enate is
on.board- onl abo%t one.third of 'enate Re!%blicans are set to )ote for it# ?f a similar !ortion of the $o%se GOP conference s%!!orted an
immi"ration bill- it wo%ldnNt come to a )ote %nder the $astert R%le# 7oehner .. as with other s!eakers in the !ast .. has occasionally
violated the Fastert Rule- and at one !oint e)en declared that itNs not act%all a r%le Awhich is technicall tr%eG# 7ut
conservatives have registered their dismay with him doing so, and %rea(ing it on such a high,profile
piece of legislation as immigration reform would surely lead to a %ac(lash within the Fouse '#
conference. 5he spea(erPs decision effectively means that in order to pass, any immigration
legislation would need the support of a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans- a ma,orit of the $o%se o)erall- and
likel at least =5 senators#
&egalization -upport" ;ost Repu%licans would support legalization.
Lazworth $)1*
>a!! >a8worth is a Christian Post ,o%rnalist# The Christian Post is a news!a!er based in 2ashin"ton- /#C# La%nched initiall as an online
!%blication- the news!a!er was fo%nded in 2555 to deli)er news- information- and commentaries# ?t mo)ed its head:%arters from 'an 1rancisco-
California to 2ashin"ton- /#C# in 255=# Contents incl%de health.related news- o!inions- &#'# news- and international news#
htt!344www#christian!ost#com4news4!ath.to.citi8enshi!.is.dead.!ath.to.le"ali8ation.still.!ossible.immi"ration.reform.ad)ocates.sa.15<3=54
The >$CLC has been a stron" s%!!orter of immi"ration reform and has called for a !ath to citi8enshi! as !art of a broad reform !acka"e#
Rodri"%e8- who is also a senior editorial ad)isor for CP- told the >$CLC members in attendance that the wo%ld ha)e ]a lot more con)ersation]
in the ne*t few weeks abo%t whether or not the wo%ld s%!!ort the !ro!osed com!romise# Robert Gittelson- )ice !resident of "o)ernmental
affairs for the >$CLC- seemed s%!!orti)e of the !ro!osal# 2hile he wants citi8enshi!- he e*!lained- he is also !ra"matic and realistic# ]? wo%ld
like to ha)e a !ath to citi8enshi!# ? wo%ld lo)e e)en more for e)erbod to be safe# 1or all of o%r families to be able to li)e in di"nit- for all of
o%r families to li)e abo)e board and li)e a normal !rod%cti)e life and !%rs%e the American dream# The can do that witho%t a !ath to citi8enshi!-
as lon" as the ha)e a si"nificant le"al stat%s-] he said# Two of the main obstacles for !assa"e of immi"ration reform has been that $o%se leaders
will not brin" an le"islation to the floor that does not ha)e the s%!!ort of a ma,orit of Re!%blicans- and will not ,oin a conference committee
with the 'enateNs bill# Gittelson belie)es- tho%"h- that a %ill that provides a path to legal status, %ut not a path to
citizenship, has the support of a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans# ]LetNs take what we can "et now and fi"ht abo%t
3<
Godwin RL 45
citi8enshi! another da-] he ad)ised# ]LetNs "et families into a state of safet#] One factor that Rodri"%e8 belie)es will ca%se Re!%blicans to take
notice of immi"ration reform is >ew @erse Go)# Chris ChristieNs reelection# Christie recei)ed 65 !ercent of the Latino )ote- he e*!lained- and
that was- in !art- d%e to his s%!!ort for com!rehensi)e immi"ration reform- accordin" to e*it !olls# ]The Chris Christie factor is "inormo%s-]
Rodri"%e8 ar"%ed- beca%se it showed that Re!%blicans can ]make inroads] with Latino comm%nities b s%!!ortin" immi"ration reform#
]?mmi"ration reform will determine whether a Re!%blican] can win the 2hite $o%se in 251=- he concl%ded#
#olitical -uccess" &egalization is seen as more politically expedient than a path to
citizenship, and %oth cham%ers of Congress would vote for it.
7la(e $)1*
Aaron +lake co)ers national !olitics at the 2ashin"ton Post- where he writes re"%larl for the 1i*- the PostLs to! !olitical blo"# The 2ashin"ton
Post A2PG is an American dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in 2ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77-
makin" it the areaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- the
htt!344www#washin"ton!ost#com4blo"s4the.fi*4w!425134574114the."o!s.best.!la.on.immi"ration.a.!ath.to.le"ali8ation4
?n todaLs (ornin" 1i*- we "amed o%t three !otential !aths for the c%rrent immi"ration debate# ? wo%ld like to !ro!ose a fo%rth- and it "oes like
this3 Fouse Repu%licans finall come aro%nd to com!rehensi)e immi"ration reform- b%t 9 and this is a +?G b%t 9 the do it witho%t a
!ath to citi8enshi!# The pass a %ill 9 or a conference committee !rod%ces a com!romise after both chambers !ass their own bills 9 that
includes a path to legal status and4or somethin" alon" the lines of the /REA( Act Ale"ali8ation for o%n" ille"al immi"rantsG- %ut
no new path to citizenship. 5his ma(es sense for a host of reasons" 1. 9t:s a middle,ground %ill. 9t
%rings illegal immigrants out of the shadows %ut allows Repu%licans to tell primary voters that they
didn:t vote for <amnesty.= Repu%licans can rightly argue that illegal immigrants aren:t %eing given
an advantage over those going through legal channels to earn citizenship. $. Repu%licans can tell
their %ase that they avoided potentially granting voting rights to millions of voters who they fear
would vote for !emocrats. Conservatives have %een using this argument against comprehensive
immigration reform for months 8 noting that allowing millions of !emocratic,leaning &atinos to
register to vote could cost them future elections. A1or what itLs worth- this wo%ldnLt ha!!en for a lon" time- since the !aths
to citi8enshi! bein" !ro!osed wo%ld take more than a decade- and itLs not clear how man ille"al immi"rants wo%ld act%all seek citi8enshi!-
"i)en the costs and h%rdles in)ol)ed#G *. 9t would put !emocrats in a tough spot. Congressional !emocrats who
are leading the immigration fight insist that they will not support a %ill that stops short of a path to
citizenship. 7ut of course they are going to say that? caving on that item at this 2uncture would
effectively ta(e a path to citizenship right off the ta%le. 9n the end, if there:s a %ill that doesn:t
include a path to citizenship %ut does move the %all forward for illegal immigrants, are !emocrats
really going to %e the ones to halt it when the alternative is nothingR ?t remains to be seen whether $o%se
Re!%blicans co%ld e)en rall the )otes for a !ath to le"al stat%sB some wo%ld still ine)itabl label it as Oamnest#R And few !eo!le are talkin" in
these terms 9 mostl beca%se itLs still :%ite earl in the !rocess and beca%se both sidesL leaders wo%ld like to ha)e a !ath to citi8enshi! as !art of
the !acka"e# +%t /emocratic and Re!%blican aides alike sa this is a distinctl !ossible final o%tcome- "i)en the make%! of the two chambers and
the fact that $o%se '!eaker @ohn +oehner AR.OhioG insists an bill m%st ha)e the s%!!ort of a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans Aa#k#a# the O$astert
R%leRG# At least one $o%se /emocrat 9 Re!# Loretta 'anche8 A/.Calif#G said in an inter)iew on ('>+C on Th%rsda that OthereLs alwas room
for debateR on le"ali8ation rather than citi8enshi!# $o%se Re!%blicans sa /emocrats- who ha)e alread com!romised on border sec%rit- wo%ld
do well to do the same on a !ath to citi8enshi!# O?tLs clear that if President Obama e)ent%all si"ns an immi"ration bill Z or bills Z it will be
considerabl different than the 'enate.!assed bill-R said one aide to $o%se GOP leadershi!- "ranted anonmit to disc%ss strate"# O?f 2ashin"ton
/emocrats want to "et this done- drawin" lines in the sand is entirel co%nter.!rod%cti)e#R @im (anle- a former top aide to -enate
;a2ority &eader Farry Reid A/.>e)#G- said /emocrats co%ld )ote a"ainst a !ath to le"ali8ation rather than citi8enshi! if forced to
choose- b ar"%in" that it effecti)el creates two different classes of Americans# The co%ld sim!l sa that Re!%blicans !re)ented an e)en.better
deal for ille"al immi"rants- he said# +%t he also said the Fouse could indeed apply pressure to -enate !emocrats
%y passing something short of a path to citizenship. O( worst fear is sli"htl different-R (anle said- Oand that is after
some fits and starts- P$o%se Re!%blicansQ send o)er somethin" onl dealin" with the /REA(er kids and dare the 'enate to o!!ose it#R Predictin"
anthin" in the c%rrent immi"ration debate 9 !artic%larl "i)en how %nwield the $o%se GOP conference is 9 is a foolLs errand# And more and
more- the likeliest o%tcome a!!ears to be nothin" "ettin" done at all# +%t given the Repu%lican #arty:s recognition that it
needs to do something 9 and the fact that itLs "oin" to be )er- )er diffic%lt to "et a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans to )ote for
anthin" with a !ath to citi8enshi! 9 offering a path to legalization of some sort might %e a good way to force
45
Godwin RL 41
!emocrats: hand for once. ?t also mi"ht be the onl wa that Re!%blicans can mo)e the needle on this iss%e 9 and- b e*tension-
ho!e to start mendin" fences with Latino )oters#
41
Godwin RL 42
Legative Re%uttals
1. Answers to Economics answers to the argument that a path to
citizenship for undocumented immigrants would help the economy
tremendously, and therefore close fiscal deficits as tax revenues rise.
AC$ 9ncome 9ncreases" A path to citizenship would not increase income, and the
&ynch and 'a(ford DCenter for American #rogressE study is deeply flawed.
Gederation for American 9mmigration Reform $)1*
1A?RLs !%blications and research are %sed b academics and "o)ernment officials in !re!arin" new le"islation# >ational and international media
re"%larl t%rn to the or"ani8ation to %nderstand the latest immi"ration de)elo!ments and to shed li"ht on this com!le* s%b,ect# 1A?R has been
called to testif on immi"ration bills before Con"ress more than an or"ani8ation in America#
htt!344www#fair%s#or"4iss%e4analsis.of.claims.of.an.economic.benefit.from.amnest
Center for American #rogress ACAPG claimed benefit of amnest3 CAP claims that amnesty S...will %ring a%out
significant economic gains in terms of growth, earnings, tax revenues and 2o%s...S1 1A?R res!onse3 5he
fallacy with the CAP claim is that it is %ased on a misunderstanding or misre!resentation of the findings of a
survey of recipients of amnesty in 114/. 5he authors assume that increased earnings for amnesty
recipients was across the %oard 8 which it was not 8 and that average wage gains provided
relatively greater economic %enefit to the legalized population than to others who already were legal
wor(ers 8 which it did not. 5he average wage increase of 10 percent over the five,year period for
illegal aliens gaining legal status A1<D7.1<<2G was the same as the increase for all non,supervisory
wor(ers, and it coincided with a rise of $/.1 percent in the federal minimum wage. 2 A1or details see 1alse
Ass%m!tions in CAP 't%d Iield 1alse Res%ltsG
AC$ Economic rowth" A path to citizenship would not generate economic growth,
and the &ynch and 'a(ford DCenter for American #rogressE study is deeply flawed.
Center for American #rogress ACAPG claims3 Amnesty would %e a %oost to the +.-. economy.3 1A?R
res!onse3 5he studies that CA# relied on to claim that amnest wo%ld be a benefit misunderstand or misre!resent the
results of survey data o%tained from %eneficiaries of the 114/ amnesty.4 5he survey data clearly
esta%lish that fi)e ears after "ainin" le"al stat%s- economic progress had %een achieved %y only a minority of
the amnesty %eneficiaries 9 those who were )isa o)erstaers . and the ma2ority of %eneficiaries had lost
ground economically compared to other wor(ers. A1or details see3 1lawed Claims of ?m!ro)ed Earnin"s of Amnestied
AliensG
AC$ !REA; rowth" 5he !REA; Act would not generate economic growth.
42
Godwin RL 43
Center for American #rogress ACAPG claims3 5he !REA; act would add .*$1 %illion to the +.-.
economy %y $)*).6 1A?R res!onse3 9f adopted, the !REA; act would add to the %urden on the +.-.
taxpayer of additional su%sidized education for these former illegal aliens, add to the social
assistance %urden, create additional competition with +.-. wor(ers for +.-. 2o%s, and eventually
extend the amnesty %enefit to the illegal alien parents who %rought them illegally into the country.
5he CA# claim deli%erately ignores the potential costs of the proposal. A1or details see3 2o%ld the /reamer
Amnest +enefit the EconomSG
AC$ 5axes 9ncrease" 5he !REA; Act would not generate economic growth.
Center for American #rogress ACAPG claims3 Citin" the ?mmi"ration Polic Center- CAP claims that amnesty is
2ustified %ecause illegal aliens pay .11.$ %illion annually in taxes and would pay more if given
amnesty.= 1A?R res!onse3 The CA# claim- and the %nderlin" data- fails to recognize that illegal aliens pay little in
taxes %ecause of their low earnings and that if they gained legal status they would %e a%le to claim
the Earned 9ncome 5ax Credit 8 causing a ma2or drain on the +.-. 5reasury. Gew of the 114/
amnesty %eneficiaries gained significantly more than average legal wor(ers as a result of the
amnesty and the ma2ority lost ground economically. A1or details see ?lle"al Aliens 2ho Pa Ta*es (a Claim Ta*
CreditsG
43

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