Gold Elliott Wave Projection Since 1970

The market movement unfolds in waves which reflects human nature that does
not change. The Elliott Wave Principle is made of motive and corrective waves.
Waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves as they move with the trend, Waves and !
are corrective waves as they partially retrace the previous impulse move. "
complete se#uence is made of $ waves% a 5&wave motive phase '1, , 3, !, 5( and a
)asic 3&wave corrective phase '", *, +(.
,rom -anuary 1./0 until now we can see that 1old had 3 impulsive waves which
were separated )y distinct countertrend corrective waves. 2n high scale degrees
3 prefer to use percentage scales.
Wave '3(% 435 '-anuary 1./0( to 41/..50 '"pril 3rd, 1./!( 555 6!137
Wave '33(% 41/..50 '"pril 3rd, 1./!( to 4101 '"ugust 5, 1./8( 555 &!37
Wave '333(% 4101 '"ugust 5, 1./8( to 4/. '9eptem)er 3,1.$0( 555 6817
Wave '3:(% 4/. '9eptem)er 3, 1.$0( to 45.50 '"ugust 5 1...( 555 &857
Wave ':(% 45.50 '"ugust 5, 1...( to ; <
=ou can see that that the )asic rules of Elliott Waves are respected. Wave '333(
'6817( is not the shortest wave, Wave '3:( did not overlap Wave '3( and Wave
'33( flat correction '&!37( alternates with Wave '3:( sharp correction '&857(.
Wave '1( of ':( from 45.50 '"ugust 5, 1...( to 41.0.$0 '9eptem)er 8, 011(
is already up 8807 which is slightly a)ove Wave 3 performance '6817(. That
lets me think that the current Wave ':( could )e e>tended 'the e>tended wave is
often the same num)er as the parent wave(. 3 think that 1old ended a Wave '1( of
':( on 9eptem)er 8, 011 at 41.0.$0, Wave '( ended on -une $, 01! at
411/..!0 and 1old is currently forming a Wave '3( of ':(.
There are three main reasons why 3 think that Wave ':( could )e an e>tended
wave%
,irstly, the e>tended wave is often the fifth wave in the +ommodity )ull market.
9econdly, a non e>tended Wave ':( has usually gains in ,i)onacci proportion to
Wave '3( from 0.81$ to 1. 3n that case Wave ':( performance should )e
)etween 557 '0.81$ > !137( and !137 )ut it is already up 8807 which
corresponds to Wave '3( multiplied )y the 1olden ?um)er '!137 @ 1.81$ A
8807(.
Thirdly, 3 think that 9eptem)er 8, 011 was not the top as the 1old market did
not yet have a mass phenomena nor herd )ehavior connected to all speculative
)u))lesB the vast maCority of people do not have an idea of the current 1old price
and do not look for )uying 1old Detal at the moment.
Doreover, the corrective move since 9eptem)er 011 high looks rather like a well
organiEed structure corrective move than a )u))le crash. 3n addition to technical
reasons there are also many fundamental reasons for 1old to resume the )ull
market that 3 did not mention as there are already a lot of talks on the su)Cect
'devaluation of the dollar, Eero rates policy, systemic pu)lic de)t a)ove 100
percent of 1FP etc.(
Wave '( of ':( from 41.0.$0 to 411/..!0 represents a correction of 3$.87 at
the moment. 3t is less than Wave '33( '&!37( and Wave '3:( '&857( which are
corrective waves of higher degrees. 3t is another clue that lets me think that Wave
':( su)divides into five smaller waves.
3 proCected the e>tended Wave ':( with two different methods. The first one is an
e>tended Wave ':( related )y the ,i)onacci ratio to length of Wave '3( through
Wave '333( '1.81$ or .81$(. The performance from the )ottom of Wave '3( to the
top of Wave '333( was 61.$37, therefore the proCection with the 1olden Gatio
1.81$ has a target of 4$35 and 413880 with .81$.
The second method takes into account the fact that Wave '3:( usually divides an
impulse wave into the 1olden 9ection 'it can )e whether from the start or the end
of Wave '3:((. 2n the following chart you can see the two possi)ilities, the )lack
e>ample 'the 1olden 9ection starts at the end of Wave '3:(( and the )lue e>ample
'the 1olden 9ection starts at the )eginning of Wave '3:((.
The )lack e>ample shows that 0.3$ )egins from the )ottom of Wave '3( to the
end of Wave '3:( 'from 435 to 45.50( which represents a performance of
6817. 0.81$ )egins from the end of Wave '3:( to the end of Wave ':( which
represents a performance of 6100!7. This proCection gives a target of 4/$/ for
Wave ':(.
The )lue e>ample shows that 0.3$ )egins from the )ottom of Wave '3( to the
start of Wave '3:( 'from 435 to 4/.( which represents a performance of
61.$7. 0.81$ )egins from the start of Wave '3:( to the end of Wave ':(
which represents a performance of 63087. 3n this case the target for Wave ':(
is 4!100.
Whatever the case may )e and according to the Elliott Wave Principle, 3 think
that 1old is in an e>tended Wave ':( which has a lot of upside potential. Elliott
Wave Principle helps to )etter understand the nature of the market movement
and completed with other tools it can forecast the market progress and define
important turning points with a high degree of accuracy.
Gold Projection by the Golden Ratio
This article shows how 1old has )een following the 1olden Gatio which predicted
all the maCor turning points with a high degree of accuracy for the past thirty
years, and reveals the ne>t possi)le maCor turning points. The 1olden Gatio
1.81$03!; 'also called the 1olden ?um)er, the 1olden 9ection or the 1olden
Dean( can )e found everywhere around us from mathematics to architecture,
from nature to our own anatomy. *ut as you can see in the following analysis, it
can also )e found in the 1old Detal +harts.
The first chart presents the 9ecular *ear Darket from 1.$0 to 1... and the
+yclical *ull Darket from 1... to 011 and shows how they are connected to the
1olden Gatio 1.81$. ,irstly, you can see that the three most important turning
points '1.$0 top H 1... low H 011 top( had a time duration which is accurately
connected to the 1olden Gatio. 3t is also interesting to note that the 1olden Gatio
has an inverse correlation with the previous turning point 'high&low&high(.
9econdly, the first leg up of the +yclical *ull Darket from the low on "ugust 5,
1... to the top of Darch 1/, 00$ predicted e>actly the low on -une $, 013.
Iere again, the 1olden Gatio has an inverse correlation with the previous turning
point 'low&high&low(.
Thirdly, the second leg up of the +yclical *ull Darket H from the low on 2cto)er
!, 00$, to the top on 9eptem)er 8, 011 H pinpointed also the low on -une $,
013 and once again, the correlation is inverted 'low&high&low(.
The ne>t chart shows the +yclical *ear Darket from the 011 top to the 013 low.
" look at the time duration of the tops and lows of this )ear market reveals that it
has an inverse correlation with the 1olden Gatio. +ontrary to the )ull market, the
)ear market follows the 0.8 ratio which is the inverse of the 1olden Gatio
'1J1.81$A0.8(. We can also notice that the alternate relation )etween highs and
lows is )roken 'high&low&low(.
"s we can see, every turning point has )een predicted )y the 1olden Gatio for the
last thirty years. The charts are showing that these turning points did not happen
)y coincidence )ut followed a precise 1olden Gatio road map. This ratio can
therefore also )e used to proCect the ne>t important market turning points.
2n the following charts you can see a proCection upon studying the tops and lows
of the previous )ull and )ear markets. The entire leg up of the +yclical *ull
Darket from the low on "ugust 5, 1... to the top on 9eptem)er 8, 011, is
pinpointing an important market turn date during the last week of -anuary 01..
"s history has shown, the 1olden ?um)er had an inverse correlation with the
previous tops or lows, so odds favor that the last week of -anuary 01. could )e a
maCor low which will )e reversed )y the 9eptem)er 8, 011 high.
"s for the +yclical *ear Darket from the 011 high to the 013 low, two possi)le
turning points could )e forecast, since 3 also take into account the 3nverse 1olden
Gatio which pinpointed the highs and lows of the previous )ear market.
We can see that the first turning point could happen during the first week of
"ugust 01! '1olden Gatio( and the second one during the third week of Day
018 '3nverse 1olden Gatio(. *ased on the 1olden Gatio study, the first week of
"ugust 01! could )e a top, as the 1olden Gatio se#uence has usually an inverse
correlation with the previous turning point 'the low on -une $, 013(.
"s for the third week of Day 018, history has shown that the 3nverse 1olden
Gatio 0.8 keeps the same characteristic of the previous turning point. 3n that
case the third week of Day 018 could )e a low, as the previous turning point on
$ -une, 013 was a low.
Iowever, it is important to note that the history also reveals that turning point
se#uences can )e )roken whether we are in a cyclical )ull or a cyclical )ear
market. Therefore 3 think that the most important is to watch how the price
action will approach these turning points 'in an uptrend or in a downtrend( and
)e prepared for a trend change.
3f the 1olden Gatio has an important role for the time period, my analyses on
1old prices also reveals that prices of )oth legs up of the +yclical *ull Darket and
of )oth legs down of the +yclical *ear Darket are connected to the 1olden Gatio
1.81$.
The +orrelation of Price is a little less accurate than the one for Time Furation
)ut it is still very relevant. " measure move with round num)ers of the first leg
up and the second leg up of the +yclical *ull Darket presents that )oth legs up
have a price ratio of 1.5. which is very close to 1.81$. The two legs down of the
)ear market are also very close to the 1olden Gatio '/ points less than 1.8(.
"s far as 1old prices are holding a)ove the 9ymmetry 1uideline and 9ilver holds
a)ove its thirty years *ase Pattern ?eckline 'as shown on the two charts )elow,
also pu)lished in K2014 The Year o !o""oditie#K(, the 9ecular *ull
Darket is still intact. 3n that case we could e>pect another leg up with a measure
move )etween 'the 1olden ?um)er( @ 'measure move of the +yclical *ull
Darket( and 'the 3nverse 1olden ?um)er( @ 'measure move of the +yclical *ull
Darket(%
1.81$ @ '1.1&5( A /00
0.8 @ '1.1&5( A 1035
This leg up could therefore send prices to a range )etween 415 and 43$$0 from
the low at 411$0. ,or the moment we need to see further development in the
price action to confirm a new leg up.