A Research Proposal on Impact of Load Shedding in Bangladesh

1. Abstract:
Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off of electrical supply to
parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in those areas. This practice is rare,
but is a core
part of the emergency management of all electricity networks.
Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electricity demand
(customers usage) and electricity supply (the ability of the electricity network to generate and
transport the required amount of electricity to meet this demand).
When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very
quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network becoming unstable and
shutting down completely. This is known as a cascade event, and can end in a total or
widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country. Load shedding normally
happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of major element(s) in the
national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key transmission line failures), resulting in
protection schemes initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid, to
protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic load shedding always occurs
on the transmission system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and large
blocks of customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be
in the order of 1000MW 2000MW, affecting hundreds of thousands of customers.
Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is available (typically up to
60mins) to make selective choices on what customers are shed. Selective load shedding often
occurs on the distribution system level, and typically requires medium to small amounts of
electricity to be shed in a short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of
50MW 100MW, affecting tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual load
shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large blocks of customers
being shed with little to no discrimination between customer types. This situation is invoked
when a large amount of electricity (500MW 2000MW) is required to be shed in a timeframe of
typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on guidelines which have been
ratified by the Bangladesh Government & BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions, remand centers,
sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring continuous supply, major public
transport supplies, and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise buildings will
have a higher priority compared to feeders that have a predominantly residential, commercial or
other industrial customer mix.

2. Literature Review:
Electricity sector in Bangladesh
Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and poorly managed. The per
capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest (136 kWh) in the world.
Noncommercial energy sources, such as wood, animal wastes, and crop residues, are estimated
to account for over half of the country's energy consumption. Bangladesh has small reserves of
oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy consumption is mostly
natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.
Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the economic
activities. Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-
fourth of which is considered to be available. Only 40% of the population has access to
electricity with a per capita availability of 136 kWh per annum. Problems in the Bangladesh's
electric power sector include corruption in administration, high system losses, and delays in
completion of new plants, low plant efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft,
blackouts, and shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's generation
plants have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.

In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately manage the load leads to
extensive load shedding which results in severe disruption in the industrial production and other
economic activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of industrial
output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth by about half a percentage point
in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in efficiently delivering power is caused by the inefficient
distribution system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution losses
in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is equal to US $247
million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural households
and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni.Bangladesh has planned to increase renewable
energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.

Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000 crore ($5.88
billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding into a tolerable level within
next four and half years during the term of the present government. Under the plan, the Power
Development Board (PDB) had produced 500 MW gas-fired electricity between July and
December, 2009 to over come load shedding within December. The PDB had hired furnace-oil
based 1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to June 2010. In 2011, the
government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW capacity of power plant. The PDB officials
would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a senior official of the PDB said. Besides the
government would also hire another diesel or furnace oil based power plant having capacity of
700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding into mild level, the official said. However, the
government also contemplates to establish four coal-fired based power plants with capacity of
producing 500 MW of electricity each with public and private partnership (PPP) in Rajshahi
and Chittagong region. The government has initially tried to create fund of Tk 6,000 crore to
implement the plan, sources said. The power division has tried to utilize the government's
budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP in this regard, sources added. "If we can create
the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would be possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP to
produce 5,000 MW f electricity within four and half years," PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir
told the New Nation on June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
permitted the power division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a
tolerable level.
Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW power plant at Rooppur, 200
km (125 miles) northwest of the capital Dhaka, by 2011.


3. Objectives
The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from the selected areas in
order to use them in and impact studies. The specific objectives of the survey will be to collect
data relating to the following variables:
1. Age & Gender
2. Educational Qualification
3. Occupation: Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Student
4. Location
5. Income level
The specific objectives are -
> Experience of load shedding
> Hours of load shedding and frequencies
> Bearable hours
> Adopted for alternatives
> Affected with respect to time and season
> Affected activities
> Solutions taken at personal/ household level
> Degree of problem
> What is the main reason behind this recent power crisis inBangladesh?
> Is corruption and technical system loss are only responsible about this power crisis?
> What should be the role of government to reduce this Power crisis?
4. Methodology:
4.1 Major points:
Research type Exploratory Research
Population size People of Bangladesh
Sample size 100 People
Sampling technique Multistage Stratified Random Sampling
Nature of data collection Primary data
Data collection instrument questionnaire
Data processing instrument SPSS and EXCEL

4.2 Research Method
A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. I will use the survey method
and secondary data.

4.3 Sources of Data
1. Primary Data
2. Secondary Data

Primary Data: I will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and publics
reaction about load shedding and power crisis inBangladesh by conducting a survey on 100
general people. To do that survey first i have to prepare some questions and some suitable
answers against each question. Then i have to pretest that questionnaire out side of the sample.
After that I will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The businessmen, shopkeepers,
doctors, teachers, retired peoples, servants, housewives and students will be participating in our
survey.
Secondary Data: I will collect our primary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
(BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of the
data will be collected from primary sources.

4.4 Study Area:
As i will conduct the survey within Bangladesh, first i will select five small areas randomly.
Then i will select twenty samples from each area for conducting my survey.

4.5 Sample Size:
The Sample Size of my research is 100.

4.6 Sample Selection Procedures:
In sample Selection, i will use Multistage Stratified Random Sampling. That is, i will divide the
whole Bangladesh in small areas and select five small areas randomly. i will select residential
areas as well as business and trade areas to conduct our research. Then from each of the five
areas, i will select twenty people as sample. I will try to involve all types of people as,
Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Students in our survey.

4.7 Instruments to be used:
I will collect data using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested out side the
sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.



5.0. WORK PLAN
This research will be guided by a specific time table to ensure that the data needed to answer the
problems and address the objectives of the study will be gathered and collected just in time.
The activities will be done according to the following time period



In 1st week:
Topic Selection
Secure advisers approval
Definition of the Problem




From 2nd week to 3rd week
Development of objectives
Reviewing related literature
Selection of methodology



From week 4 to week 6
Write the draft of the proposal
Select the study sample
Prepare interview schedule
Do the needed revisions



From week 7 to week 10
Test research tool validity
Conduct research
Do the assessment techniques
Analyze and present gathered data



6.0. Budget
In this research, i the researcher will be responsible for the expected expenditures in conducting
this study. My expected expenditures will be as follows in the different activities:
SL. No. Expenditure purpose Expenditure amount(BDT )
1. For doing photocopy of resources researched
from different books
1000
2. For doing the photocopy of the formulated
questionnaire
1500
3. For the print out purpose of the materials for
the study
500
4. The phone bills for arranging interview
schedule
1000
5. Conveyance cost for meeting the respondents 2000
Expected Total cost 6000

7.0. Limitations :
There were certain limitations regarding the study that is summarized below:

The main hindrance behind preparing this report is time. So, it is not possible to go
through in depth within this short span of time.
Deficiencies in data required for the study. It will not cover most recent data.
Confidentiality of Data- Information regarding the actual performance and position as it
is related to the governments reputation and financial stability thats why it is quite hard to go
through the information.
I carried out such a study for the first time, so in experience is one of the main constraints
of the study.



8.0. Appendices

Bibliography:

The daily star
The daily sun
www.bpdb.gov.bd
www.bbs.gov.bd
The new nation