01 SEPT-05 SEPT 2014

W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Buy on fear, sell on greed.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
The trend is your friend.
Amateurs want to be right.
Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE
(USD)
60.4745
REPO RATE 8%
REVERSE REPO 7%
CRR 4%
INFLATION 5.19%
KEY RATES As on 28/08/2014
MARKET EVENTS
MARKET OUTLOOK
Rupee weakened only marginally
after a three week rising trend while
edged higher by 0.08% in August
snapping two month falling trend.
Most emerging Asian currencies
were headed for monthly gains in
August on expectations that ECB will
opt for a further stimulus. Most
awaited data of Q1 GDP which
expanded 5.7% highest in 9 quarters
may support rupee appreciation. In
the coming week, focus will be on
especially the ECB policy meeting on
Sept. 4 that could result in additional
monetary easing and domestic data
including HSBC manufacturing PMI
on Monday.
Rupee weakens, but
sentiment strong a year after
record lows.
China's Yuan inches up set to
rise in August for third month.
Yen supported on Ukraine
tensions, euro braces for
inflation test.
Euro falls to near 21-month
low.
CURRENCIES
PREVIOUS
RATE
CURRENT
RATE
% CHANGE
USDINR 60.5100 60.9550 0.73
EURINR 80.3175 80.3900 0.09
GBPINR 100.3025 101.0850 0.78
JPYINR 58.3700 58.8200 0.77
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USDINR


EURINR
USDINR last week moved in tight consolidation range except the last session in which
depreciation in rupee was seen. On daily charts, 60.5000 is seen as major support level sustaining
below which may drag it towards lower side whereas 61.3000 may act as immediate resistance. It
is likely to consolidate mainly in the range of 61.3000-60.7000.
EURINR last week found support around the crucial support of 79.4000 on weekly charts and
closed the week in green territory. Northward move can be seen till it maintains above this mark
of 79.4000 and so if it acts as reversal point then it may lead towards the trend line i.e. near
81.9000.


























CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
USDINR 60.5000

60.1000 59.8000 61.3000 61.7000 62.1000
EURINR 80.0000 79.6000 79.1000 80.8000 81.3000 81.8000

GBPINR 100.5000 100.1000 99.6000 101.4000 101.8000

102.2000
JPYINR 58.4000 58.0000 57.6000 59.2000

59.6000 60.0000
PIVOT TABLE
DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT
BLOOMBERG
ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS
LEVEL
02-SEPT-2014
7:30
PM
US
ISM
Manufacturing
PMI
57.0 57.1
04-SEPT-2014
6:00
PM
US Trade Balance -42.5B -41.5B
04-SEPT-2014
6:00
PM
US
Unemployment
claims
298k 298K
05-SEPT-2014
7:30
PM
US
Unemployment
Rate
6.1% 6.2%


INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
Brazilian Swap Rates Drop as Recession Pares Inflation
Concern.
Sterling firm near 2-week high versus struggling euro.
Pound Gains Most Since July as Confidence Underscores Rate
Bets.










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