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Why Full Disclosure Poses no Threat to the Survival of Foreign
Aid

*estival +odwin ,oateng

-os.ilde /niversit0( Department of Societ0 and +lobali1ation( "ostbo2 23( ) -os.ilde( Denmar.
4 E-mail5 bfsvl16$$7gmail.com 8 bfsvl70a9oo.com

Abstract
Increasingl0( it is becoming a given t9at t9e onl0 secure basis for world peace and prosperit0 in t9e long run la0
in providing all states wit9 t9e c9ance to ma.e progress towards a better life. :ccordingl0( ric9 countries 9ave
alwa0s been pra0ed to give some of t9eir wealt9 to poor countries to fig9t povert0( 9unger and diseases. *or t9e
past five decades( more t9an 2.; trillion dollars 9ave been spent on foreign aid. <owever( no significant
economic growt9 and povert0 reduction 9ave occasioned in poor countries. -at9er( in some places( povert0 9as
increased. :id agencies .eep on repeating more-t9an-five decades-old c0cle of idealism( 9ig9 e2pectations and
disappointing results because t9e0 fail to coordinate efforts( do peer reviews and full disclosure of past aid
pro=ects for fear t9at it mig9t lead to disclosing negative results w9ic9 ma0 dent t9e image of development aid
and lead to reduced public support and donations for foreign aid. It is argued in t9is piece t9at t9e foreign aid
establis9ment 9as alread0 won t9e battle for t9e 9earts( minds and wallets of >estern ta2pa0ers and t9ere is no
wa0 aid funds will dr0 up. :id agencies are t9erefore urged to open up( see. more avenues for international
collaboration and information s9aring( encourage peer reviews and criticisms( full disclosure of information
especiall0( t9ose on failed pro=ects to allow for better learning( learning from past e2periences and peers. ?9is
wa0( t9e full potential of foreign aid to deal wit9 9unger( diseases and povert0 ma0 become manifest.
Keywords5 foreign aid( collaboration( full disclosure( information s9aring( peer review

Acknowledgment: I am grateful to @rs. :bigail ,entil <olten( Eunice :c.om Sampene( Aourage :9iati( :tta
"o.u and @artin :c9eampong for reading t9roug9 t9e script for me. I am particularl0 grateful to <enri. Sec9er
@arcussen of -os.ilde /niversit0 for 9is views.

! "ntroduction
As this piece is being written, foreign aid is expanding rapidly. The foreign aid
establishment has won the battle for the hearts, minds, and wallets of Western
taxpayers. Peter Bauers prescient warnings and 5 years of e!idence
notwithstanding, the West is about to spend another trillion dollars on foreign aid
in the next couple of decades "#hleifer, $%&'(().
Bos9i9iro Cawao.a( t9e controversial scientist 9as received a great deal of criticisms from 9is
colleagues for 9is provocative researc9 on ma.ing influen1a viruses more infectious b0 deliberatel0 creating a
pandemic strain of flu t9at can evade t9e 9uman immune s0stem. :lt9oug9 "rofessor Cawao.aDs wor. 9as been
cleared b0 >isconsinDs Institutional ,iosafet0 Aommittee( some members of t9e committee 9ave publicl0 voiced
concerns about t9e direction( oversig9t and safet0 of 9is overall researc9 on flu viruses. Serious concerns 9ave
also been raised t9at t9e ris.s of an accidental !or even deliberate# release of t9e virus will cause a devastating
pandemic and t9at t9is ris. is too great to =ustif0 an0 practical benefits t9at ma0 come out of t9e wor. !?9e
Independent( 21)#.
"eer criticism and pontification of failures .nown in medicine and science are ver0 common in
academia too and t9e0 account for t9e man0 critical progress( ground brea.ing researc9 findings( innovative and
improved models and t9eoretical framewor.s for practice. <owever( t9ese t9ings rarel0 9appen in t9e
development or foreign aid business. In t9e aid communit0( w9at e2ists is w9at Easterl0 refers to as Elog rollingF
culture G one aid agenc0 will not critici1e anot9er agenc0Ds interventionsH lest t9e second will reciprocate
!Easterl0( 225;;#. ?9ere is 9ig9 proclivit0 to present t9e aid communit0 in t9e best possible lig9t G self and
peer criticisms are t9erefore e2tremel0 rare !"err0( 212#. ?9e communit0 is sustained b0 donations and donors
need to 9ave confidence and trust to 9and over mone0 to an aid agenc0 9ence t9e desire to alwa0s present a
convincing portrait of t9e industr0. :s noted b0 S9leifer( w9at Esupport continued and increasing foreign aid
e2penditures is not proof of effectiveness( but s0mpat90 of t9e >estern ta2pa0ersF !S9leifer( 265;$3#. It is
9owever perceived t9at t9is s0mpat90 will pale awa0 w9en foreign aid is 9it b0 negative news G t9e sponsoring
public will t9us ta.e bac. t9eir support and donations and t9is ma0 cause t9e industr0 to collapse. ?9us an Eall-
out war of negative advertising about ot9er bureaucracies would li.el0 lead t9e public to form negative images
of foreign aid t9at t9reaten all of t9emF !Easterl0( 225;2#. :s a result( even t9e best aid agencies rarel0 admit
to failures and faults G Et9e aid professional 9as a tremendous fear of 9is own writingF !?endler 167% cited in
Eaterl0( 22512#.
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?9is fear or belief t9at information on aid failures will w9ip awa0 public support for development
assistance is rooted in some studies w9ic9 lin. support for aid to public belief t9at it wor.s. *or instance Aassen
argues t9at support for aid rests Eultimatel0 on public opinion w9ic9 9as to be convinced t9at aid is wor.ing
wellF !Aassen( 16$3526)#. :fter a ) G 0ear surve0 of aid giving( David Iumsdaine concluded t9at rapid
increases in aid occur in countries wit9 9ig9 levels of support for aid. <e noted t9at in countries w9ere t9e public
said it wanted increases in aid( t9e Juantum of aid given increased and w9ere t9e public wanted it to be reduced(
aid levels considerabl0 declined !Iumsdaine( 166;#. It is t9erefore 9eld t9at public perception about
development aid 9ave implications on t9eir level of support for t9e same. :s noted b0 t9e &EAD G D:A
members t9emselves( Eeven w9ere( as often( t9e public recognises t9at t9e degree of povert0 and ineJualit0 in
t9e world is bot9 a 9umanitarian issue and a ris. to all our futures( t9ere is widespread scepticism about w9et9er
official aid is effective in tac.ling it. In response to public scepticism on t9e effectiveness of aid( donors
increasingl0 focus on reporting 9ow t9e impact of aid is improving t9e lives of poor peopleF !&EAD G D:A(
2$5 $ G 6#. &bviousl0( to t9e e2clusion of t9e ot9er leg of t9e impact G t9at aid is being captured b0 corrupt
politicians( disrupting poor countriesD economies( it is not causing growt9 and an0 meaningful povert0 reduction
in poor countries.
@ostl0( t9e account is one sided( no real lessons are t9erefore learnt from failed efforts nor do t9e0
conduct peer reviews of aid pro=ects alt9oug9 t9ese are essential to success in an0 activit0. ?9is Ecollusion
destro0s KusefulL information( since one aid agenc0 .nows more about bad performance of anot9er agenc0 t9an
outside evaluatorsF !Easterl0( 225;;#. ?9e unwillingness to s9ine lig9t on past failures ma.es new failures(
duplication and repetition of t9emes of previous and similar interventions more li.el0. *or instance >orld ,an.
agriculturalist recommended a cut in cocoa ta2es( despite not 9aving 9ad t9e time to read four previous >orld
,an. reports on cocoa production in EJuatorial +uinea !Clitgaard 166 cited in Easterl0( 22#. /S:ID
produced a report on corruption in /ganda in 21( unaware t9at a ,ritis9 team 9ad produced a report on t9e
same topic si2 mont9s earlier. ?9ere is alwa0s a repetition of recommendations for man0 0ears( wit9out an0
anal0sis of w9at 9ad gone wrong wit9 previous recommendations. *or e2ample( Easterl0 cites t9at Ean
independent consultant 9ad pointed out financial problems in Cen0a -ailwa0s as long ago as 1672. >orld ,an.
reports repeated t9e recommendation to restructure or privati1e Cen0a -ailwa0s numerous times( suc9 as in
16$;( 16$6( 166%( 1663( and 2( eac9 time failing to point out t9e previous 9istor0 of failed
recommendationsF !Easterl0( 225 22#. ?9e >orld ,an. according to Easterl0 9ad an e2pensive program of
sending managers for si2-wee. intensive training at t9e <arvard ,usiness Sc9ool( w9ilst t9e ,an.Ds own librar0
and document arc9ives 9ouse innumerable case studies of programs and pro=ects failing and succeeding.
:side aid agenciesD disincentive to ma.e full disclosure( anot9er problem t9at accounts for t9e
repetition and duplication of pro=ects and t9emes w9ic9 lead to disappointing results is aid agenciesD failure to
coordinate t9eir efforts. ?9e aid communit0 itself 9as since t9e da0s of ?ruman underscored t9eir need to
collaborate wit9 eac9 ot9er !Easterl0( 22#. Aoordination of foreign aid was core to t9e 2; <ig9 Ievel *orum
on <armoni1ation !<I*#( 2% "aris Declaration on :id Effectiveness( 2$ :ccra :genda for :ction and 211
,usan "artners9ip for Effective Development Aooperation. <owever( up to now donors and investors wor. in
overlapping sp9eres in t9e developing world( eac9 wit9 t9eir own practices and agenda. In a recent stud0(
Iawson asseverates t9at Edespite t9e global attention paid to t9e issue of aid effectiveness( monitoring surve0s
indicate t9at limited progress 9as been made toward coordination of goals b0 t9e /nited States or donors in
generalF !Iawson( 21;b5 1#. ?9e0 .eep on fragmenting aid( duplicating pro=ects( ma.ing inefficient use of
resources and burdening t9e alread0 wea. bureaucracies of poor countries wit9 more administrative problems.
Iearning Easterl0 suggests( could come at least from t9ree sources5 !1# cumulative e2perience at
dealing wit9 some of t9e c9ronic problems of foreign aid( !2# reacting to new .nowledge in economic researc9(
and !;# reacting to failure !Easterl0( 275 3;$#. Bet( despite t9e clearl0 unsuccessful stor0 of development aid(
t9e science be9ind it 9as not c9anged !Easterl0( 27#. :lt9oug9 evidence abound t9at t9e economies of poor
countries are in nature ver0 wea.( poorl0 managed and susceptible to outside influence and t9at relentless flow
of unmitigated( substantial aid mone0 can be disruptive !@o0o( 26#( t9e aid communit0 9as consistentl0 called
for more aid !Mt9e big pus9D#. ?9e0 .eep pouring in uncoordinated aid resources wit9 t9e fi2ed ob=ective of
stimulating growt9( meanw9ile no evidence does support an effect of aid on growt9. :s succinctl0 captured b0
Easterl0( Et9e river of aid .eeps flowing( but effective benefits dribble slowl0 out of t9e bottom of t9e funnel
!Easterl0( 225 26#.
It must be clarified t9at it is not t9at aid organi1ations are run b0 intuitivel0 bad people w9o are 9app0
to see poor people remain poor to .eep t9em in t9eir businesses and careers. :s noted b0 Easterl0( Ein fact man0
smart( 9ard-wor.ing( dedicated professionals toil awa0 in t9e worldNs top aid agencies. ,ut t9e perverse
incentives t9e0 face e2plain t9e organi1ationsD obtuse be9aviorF !Ibid5 )#. Dic9ter argues t9at development aid
9as moved from its relativel0 innocent past w9en it was Emore of a EcallingF. It 9as now become an Eindustr0F
and 9ence conscious of its image !Dic9ter( 2;566#. Just li.e an0 industr0( all interested parties in t9e foreign
aid industr0 s9are t9e good of t9e industr0 itself( t9erefore self*perpetuation becomes e2tremel0 Juintessential.
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,ut unfortunatel0( as e2plained earlier( t9e survival of foreign aid is tied to 9ow aid bureaucrats will be able to
sustainabl0 w9ip up public support and most importantl0 t9eir donations for aid w9ic9 largel0 depends on good
image. ?9is e2plains t9e 9ig9 tendenc0 to suppress information on aid failures on t9e part of aid organi1ations
!"err0( 212H S9leifer( 26H Easterl0( 22#. <owever( t9e t9res9old Juestion is5 Does t9e aid industr0 face real
possibilit0 of collapse in t9e event of full disclosureO

!# $uick e%cursus into the world of aid
?9e 9istorical account of 9ow and w90 development cooperation came into being 9as been widel0 discussed in
t9e literature !@o0o( 26H -iddell( 27H Easterl0( 22H ?9orbec.e( 2# to warrant a pedantic reproduction
of t9e same 9ere. I will not sa0 muc9 on it e2cept to note t9at since t9e 163Ds( trillions of dollars 9ave gone into
development assistance. ?9e volume of global &D: according to ?omasi !21)# 9as increased steadil0 over t9e
past % 0ears( rising from slig9tl0 under /SD ) billion in 163 to around /SD 1; billion in 212( after
pea.ing at /SD 1;7 billion in 21. ,etween 2 and 21( t9e volume rose b0 3;P. Easterl0 !23#
estimates t9at t9e total amount of dollars spent on foreign aid over t9e last five decades calculates up to 2.;
trillion. &ut of t9is 2.; trillion dollars( according to @o0o !26#( more t9an 1 trillion was transferred to :frica.
It is recounted t9at t9is steadil0 increment in t9e volume of development aid is not incidental to an0 evidence
t9at development assistance is wor.ing but despite staggering evidence t9at it is foundering big time !@o0o(
26H Easterl0( 22H Easterl0( 23#. >alt -ostow( in 9is famous #tages of +rowth 9ad declared t9at Ean
increase of Q) billion in e2ternal aid would be reJuired to lift all of :sia( t9e @iddle East( :frica( and Iatin
:merica into regular growt9( at an increase of per capita income of sa0( 1.%P per annumF !-ostow 163 cited in
Easterl0( 2256H Easterl0( 2352%#. Bet( after spending more t9an 2.; trillion dollars in t9e last five decades(
:frica( :sia( t9e @iddle East and Iatin :merica are still poor. Indeed( in t9e case of :frica povert0 9as rat9er
increased. >it9 an average per capita income of roug9l0 /SQ1 a da0( @o0o !26# argues( sub-Sa9aran :frica
remains t9e poorest region in t9e world. :fricaNs real per capita income toda0 is lower t9an in t9e 167s meaning
t9at man0 :frican countries toda0 are as poor as t9e0 were fort0 0ears ago. >it9 over 9alf of t9e 7 million
:fricans living on less t9an a dollar a da0( sub-Sa9aran :frica 9as t9e 9ig9est proportion of poor people in t9e
world G close to % per cent of t9e worldNs poor. :nd w9ile t9e number of t9e worldNs population and proportion
of t9e worldNs people in e2treme povert0 fell after I6$( @o0o !26# notes t9at t9e proportion of people in sub-
Sa9aran :frica living in ab=ect povert0 increased to almost % per cent. ,etween 16$1 and 22( t9e number of
people in t9e continent living in povert0 nearl0 doubled( leaving t9e average :frican poorer toda0 t9an two
decades ago. Sub-Sa9aran :frica( per t9e 27 /nited Nations <uman Development -eport will account for
almost one t9ird of world povert0 in 21%( up from one fift9 in 166 !Ibid5%#. :ll t9ese deteriorating povert0
situation and statistics in :frica are against t9e bac.drop of a colossal 1 trillion dollars spent on development aid
in t9e last five decades.
>9ereas some poor countries 9ave been able to ac9ieve significant economic growt9 and povert0
reduction and 9ave now become emerging forces in t9e world !Corea( A9ina( India( Sout9 :frica( ,otswana(
?aiwan and Singapore#( studies s9ow t9at t9eir development 9as not9ing or at least less to do wit9 continuous
dependence on foreign aid. Indeed t9e0 began e2periencing growt9 upon weaning t9emselves off aid !*o2( 2H
Easterl0( 22H Easterl0( 23H @o0o( 26#. Easterl0 compares t9at Eif all foreign aid given since 16% 9ad
been invested in /S ?reasur0 ,ills( t9e cumulative assets of poor countries b0 21 would 9ave amounted to
Q2.; trillionF K0et(L t9e goal of ac9ieving increased living standards and reduced povert0 in t9e t0pical poor
countr0 Kt9roug9 foreign aidL 9as not been attainedF !Easterl0( 225 3 G 7#.
?9e above account s9ows t9at despite t9e dismal impact of development assistance on povert0
reduction and economic growt9( t9e volume of aid continues to e2perience a stead0 increase. ?9is t9erefore
contradicts t9e m0t9ical fear !w9ic9 restrains full disclosure# in t9e aid communit0 t9at development aid failures
will impact negativel0 on t9e industr0 G t9e industr0 is rat9er e2periencing tremendous growt9. Indeed not onl0
9as t9e volume of aid increased steadil0 despite its failure to ac9ieve growt9 and povert0 reduction( but also t9e
forms and trends of aid 9ave c9anged in a manner w9ic9 go to fortif0 t9e future of t9e aid industr0. @oreover( as
will be seen in t9e subseJuent discussions( current global and future e2igencies evidence t9at development
cooperation will continue to grow 9ealt9il0 in t9e future.

!& 'eterogeneous donors and financial flows
,.'., -merging donors
<it9erto( global development assistance was t9e burden of onl0 t9e D:A members( ot9erwise .nown as
EtraditionalF donors. -iddell 9as noted t9at Enot onl0 9as official development assistance continued to e2pand
over t9e past %% 0ears( but it 9as grown to become a .e0 part of t9e arc9itecture of international relations( as
more and more countries 9ave become donors( and none 9as stopped providing aid !-iddell( 27H 22#. In
addition to t9e 26 &EAD G D:A members( t9ere 9ave emerged anot9er group of generous countries !c9ristened
Memerging donorsD# w9o are providing tremendous volumes of aid to poor countries. ?9erefore( t9e global aid
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industr0 now t9an before 9as more 9eterogeneous donors and financial flows !@cEwan R @awdsle0( 212H
A9in R *a9imul( 212H ,rSutigam( 211#. ?9e emerging or non-traditional8D:A donors are broadl0 classified
into ) groups5 !i# &EAD countries t9at are not members of D:AT@e2ico( ?ur.e0 and several European
countriesH !ii# new European /nion countries t9at are not members of t9e &EADH !iii# @iddle East and &"EAs(
particularl0 Saudi :rabiaH and !iv# non&EAD donors t9at do not belong to an0 of t9e previous groups(
including ,ra1il( A9ina( India and -ussia !Cim R Iig9tfoot( 211#. In s9ort( t9e emerging donors comprise
countries t9at are ma.ing t9eir mar. as development aid actors independentl0 of t9e traditional s0stem. ?9ese
emerging donors =ust as t9e traditional donors are providing 9ig9 volumes of development aid !,rSutigam( 211(
"aulo R <elmut -eisen( 21H A9in R Uuadir( 21;#. C9aras !21# 9as suggested t9at t9e aid contributions of
non-D:A donors was around /SQ17 billion in 26( 9aving doubled in a t9ree-0ear period. :not9er recent
estimate suggests t9at t9e rising donors account for at least ten per cent of t9e current global aid flows !>al1 and
-amac9andran( 211#. ?9is total according to A9in R Uuadir( Eli.el0 underestimates t9e A9inese contributionsF
!A9in R Uuadir( 21;H )6)#. A9in R Uuadir !21;# ma0 be rig9t because Ein 21 A9ina overtoo. Japan as t9e
worldDs second largest econom0( and it is predicted t9at it will be t9e largest b0 2;F !Smit9( 21152#. :gain(
t9e c9aracter of A9inese aid differs from 9ow D:A G &EAD defines development assistance 9ence a si1eable
component of A9inese aid w9ile Jualifies as development assistance ma0 miss t9e D:A G &EAD lens generall0
used to calculate aid !,rSutigam( 211H Cim R Iig9tfoot( 211#. :side A9ina( t9e ,-IS !,ra1il( -ussia( India(
and Sout9 :frica# are also providing tremendous volumes of foreign aid. &bservers 9ave noted t9at in t9e future(
growing non-D:A donor economies will increase investment opportunities and development financing in
developing countries !Smit9( 211#.
Alearl0( in antit9esis to t9e perception t9at development aid failures will disincentivi1e furt9er
investments in foreign aid( rat9er( despite t9e failures( ot9er donors G state actors 9ave emerged w9o are also
dispensing 9uge volumes of aid albeit wit9 low or no conditionalities !-oussel( 21;H Cragelund( 212H Sato et
al( 211H ,rSutigam( 211# w9ic9 9ave now become a ma=or concern to t9e industr0 !Aor.in( 211H ,rautigam(
26H NaVm( 27#.
,.'.$ Pri!ate aid
&n t9e bac. 9eels of t9e evidenced failure of development aid( aside t9e emerging donors discussed above( ot9er
non G state actors 9ave emerged in t9e industr0 w9o are in t9e words of :delman Efinding innovative wa0s to
9elp t9e worldDs poor( and( in t9e process transforming t9e concept of foreign aidF !:delman( 265 2;# b0
providing significant aid support including budget support and investments in developing countries. ?9is
emerged t0pe of aid 9as come to supplement Et9e traditional donor G recipient model of foreign aidF presumabl0
because of its defects or failures. :s urged b0 a Jul0 27 Wall #treet .ournal article( Eturn all foreign assistance
over to t9e private sectorF !Desai R C9aras( 2$5 1%3 G 1%7#. ?9ese new group of non G state private donors
emerged from t9e M>as9ington AonsensusD G a term used to describe t9e introduction of business language and
practices into development cooperation. ?9is new trend 9as emerged as a Ecross-pollination of p9ilant9ropic
practices wit9 ideas emanating out of business sc9oolsF !@oran 265 3# and reflects in particular t9e Silicon
'alle0 dot-com boom t9at created muc9 of t9e wealt9 of t9ese new p9ilant9ropistsF !Desai and C9aras 2$5
1%$ cited in Cramer R Sattler( 21151#. ?9e MAalifornia consensusD E9olds an abiding fait9 in t9e capacit0 of
innovation( tec9nolog0 and modern management met9ods to solve problems of e2treme povert0 !Desai and
C9aras 2$5 1%$#. "rivate aid being spear9eaded b0 businesses( foundations( universities( religious groups(
c9arities( private and voluntar0 organi1ations 9as become ver0 fundamental to t9e financing of global
development assistance. "rivate foundations( online donation platforms( and venture p9ilant9rop0 institutions
!mostl0 based and tied to t9e tec9nolog0 and finance sectors in t9e /S# are t9e t9ree t0pes of private actor w9ic9
9ave gained particular importance !Cramer R Sattler( 211#. In 2%( private giving from t9e /nited States to
developing countries( e2cluding remittances( was estimated at Q;;.%bn !Desai R C9aras 2$#. :merican private
p9ilant9rop0 in 27 totaled ;3.6 billion dollars G 36 percent more t9an t9e /S government aid. :merican
private and voluntar0 organi1ations in 27 sent more aid to t9e developing world t9an *rance( t9e Net9erlands(
Sweden and t9e /nited Cingdom eac9 gave in government aid !:delman( 26#. &ver t9e ne2t decade( t9is
e2pansion in private giving to international causes is e2pected to continue. Edwards !2$# estimates t9at Efift0-
five trillion dollars in p9ilant9ropic resources are e2pected to be created in t9e /nited States alone in t9e ne2t
fort0 0earsF !p.6#. ?9e growing volumes of private aid in t9e face of t9e failure of traditional development
assistance to ac9ieve growt9 and povert0 reduction implies t9at future aid failures will necessaril0 not assume
awa0 t9e generosit0 of citi1ens of ric9 countries. ?9e vacuum created b0 t9e gap between poor countriesD
pressing needs and official development aid 9as led to t9e creation of financial and institutional space for new
!private# aid givers !C9aras 2$ cited in Cramer R Sattler( 211#. ?9us contrar0 to t9e panic among aid
bureaucrats( as foreign aid continues to struggle( citi1ens of ric9 nations are not s9unning development aid( rat9er
t9e0 are searc9ing for and perming new innovative wa0s to 9elp deal wit9 t9e povert0 situations of developing
countries.

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!( Some global risks and the future of foreign aid
:not9er important trend in development co-operation is t9e growing attention being paid towards its ob=ectives
to combating global ris.s and promoting t9e provision of global public goods. ?9is is a long-term trend. It is a
direct conseJuence of globalisation and t9e realisation t9at we now live in a global village in w9ic9 t9e
development of our countries is increasingl0 and ine2tricabl0 dependent on policies and trends in ot9er countries
!?omasi( 21)#. Increasingl0( it is becoming a given t9at t9e onl0 secure basis for world peace and prosperit0 in
t9e long run la0 in providing all states wit9 t9e c9ance to ma.e progress towards a better life !Iumsdaine( 166;#.
>e all t9erefore as global citi1ens irrespective of w9ic9 part of t9e planet we find ourselves face t9e same t9reats
wit9 climate c9ange and terrorism being two of suc9 profound global t9reats.

,./., 0limate change, the en!ironment and the future of foreign aid
&bservers 9ave noted t9at wit9 no c9ange in t9e ongoing production and consumption patterns( green9ouse gas
emissions could increase b0 %P between 21 and 2%( bringing us to a warming r90t9m of t9e globeDs
average temperature far above t9e two-degree ob=ective agreed to in Aopen9agen !?omasi( 21)#. Aoasts are
pro=ected to be e2posed to increasing ris.s( including coastal erosion( due to climate c9ange and sea-level rise.
?9e effect will be e2acerbated b0 increasing 9uman-induced pressures on coastal areas. Droug9t-affected areas
will li.el0 increase in e2tent. <eav0 precipitation events( w9ic9 are ver0 li.el0 to increase in freJuenc0( will
augment flood ris. !I"AA( 27#. In Iatin :merica( it is pro=ected t9at t9ere will be gradual replacement of
tropical forest b0 savanna9 in eastern :ma1oniaH ris. of significant biodiversit0 loss t9roug9 species e2tinction
in man0 tropical areasH significant c9anges in water availabilit0 for 9uman consumption( agriculture and energ0
generation. Europe is e2pected to e2perience increased ris. of inland flas9 floodsH more freJuent coastal flooding
and increased erosion from storms and sea level riseH glacial retreat in mountainous areasH reduced snow cover
and winter tourismH e2tensive species lossesH reductions of crop productivit0 in sout9ern Europe. ?9e case of
:sia is t9at fres9water availabilit0 is pro=ected to decrease in Aentral( Sout9( East and Sout9east :sia b0 t9e
2%sH coastal areas will be at ris. due to increased floodingH deat9 rate from diseases associated wit9 floods and
droug9ts e2pected to rise in some regions !Ibid#. In :frica w9ere t9e development aid industr0 best t9rives( t9e
pro=ection of t9e Intergovernmental "anel on Alimate A9ange is t9at Eb0 22( between 7% million and 2%
million people are to be e2posed to increased water stress due to climate c9ange. If coupled wit9 increased
demand( t9is will adversel0 affect liveli9oods and e2acerbate water-related problemsF !I"AA( 2751;#. Alimate
c9ange is alread0 magnif0ing man0 developing countriesD development c9allenges. *urt9ermore( it is increasing
t9e cost of development !/ND"( 211#. ?a.en as a w9ole( t9e range of publis9ed evidence indicates t9at t9e net
damage costs of climate c9ange are li.el0 to be significant and to increase over time and t9is put t9e entire globe
at imminent ris.. :s suc9 it seems natural as noted b0 ?omasi !21)# t9at most of t9e mitigation measures will
be financed b0 foreign aid since most regions in t9e world especiall0 :frica( most parts of Iatin :merica and
:sia do not 9ave t9e reJuired resources for it. ?9e international communit0 9as alread0 pledged muc9 climate
finance !Q1 billion per 0ear b0 22# to support adaptation and mitigation in developing countries !/ND"(
211#. It is li.el0 t9at more aid funds will be c9anneled into climate c9ange adaptation and mitigation in t9e near
and distant future.

,./.$ +lobal security and terrorism
:side climate c9ange( anot9er global ris. w9ic9 is influencing and will continue to influence t9e future of
development cooperation is terrorism. Ever since t9e late 163s( terrorism 9as acJuired a transnational
component( w9ereb0 a countr0 must be concerned about terrorist attac.s against its interests !i.e.( people and
propert0# w9et9er at 9ome or abroad !<offman( 23 cited in ,and0opad90a0( Sandler R Bounas( 26#. ?9ese
attac.s 9ave assumed m0riad forms5 9ostage ta.ing( bombings( armed attac.s( suicide bombings( or
assassinations !Ibid.#. Ever since t9e four airplane 9i=ac.ings on 11 September 21 !6811#( t9e world 9as been
acutel0 aware of t9e dangers of terrorism !,and0opad90a0( Sandler R Bounas( 21)# and t9e fact is t9at
terrorists often come from or see. as0lum in poor countries !Aarol( 22#. *or instance 6811 terrorists were
trained in al-Uaida camps in :fg9anistan and :l G S9abaab operates from Somalia - terrorist groups 9ave
gravitated to wea. or failed regimes w9ere t9e0 can assume refuge to train and plan attac.s !,and0opad90a0 et
al( 26#. :lread0( for 21)( t9e Economic Intelligence /nit 9as identified 3) countries t9at face a 9ig9 ris. of
social and8or political unrest( t9e 9ig9est measurement of its .ind in more t9an a decade. :ccording to <ori1on
-eport( b0 22% over $P of t9e worldNs poor people will be living in fragile( mainl0 low-income and :frican
states. >e are not t9at close to 22% but ,o.o <aram and :l G S9abaab are alread0 ma.ing t9reatening inroads
in :frica. ?9e slow( and slowing( economic growt9 prospects of t9e broader emerging world( 9ome to 6 percent
of t9e worldNs population and w9ere 7 percent of t9e population is under t9e age of 2% 0ears old( will onl0 lead
to a more tumultuous and dangerous world !@o0o( 21)#. ?9is ma.es t9e need to robustl0 tac.le t9e povert0
situations of poor countries 9ig9l0 imperative lest( in t9e few 0ears to come( suc9 places will not onl0 become
9ubs for terrorists but also most of t9e 0oung unemplo0ed citi1ens of t9ese poor nations will be recruited as
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terrorists and t9is is not t9e world an0 soul can comfortabl0 live in. :s rig9tl0 observed b0 -iddell( Ein a world
of growing global interdependence( Kw9ereL povert0 and underdevelopment are seen as contributing significantl0
to Kt9e t9rive ofL terrorism( conflict and global instabilit0( it will not be eas0 to reduce aid levels significantl0F
!-iddell( 275)#.

!) *illennium Develo+ment ,oals and the future of foreign
Interest in official development assistance 9as increased mar.edl0 over t9e last decade. ?9is 9as been generated
in large part b0 international attention towards t9e @D+s !/ND"( 211#. ?9e /nited Nations @illennium
Declaration e2plicitl0 recogni1ed t9e role of &D: in t9e development process and committed industriali1ed
countries to Egrant more generous development assistanceF !/N( 25) cited in Ibid5 1)3#. Development
assistance is seen as Ea core part of t9e @D+ framewor.F !,an Ci G @oon( 21;#. ?9e International Aonference
on *inancing for Development 9eld in @onterre0( @e2ico in 22 reiterated t9is view and recogni1ed t9at Ea
substantial increase in &D:F( inter alia( would be reJuired to ac9ieve t9e @D+s !/N 22 cited in /ND"(
2115 1)3#. ?9ese international agreements 9ave 9elped to increase t9e political momentum for foreign aid
following a substantial wea.ening during t9e 166s. In 21( net &D: flows from members of t9e Development
:ssistance Aommittee !D:A# of t9e &EAD reac9ed Q12$.7 billion( t9e 9ig9est level ever in nominal terms
!&EAD-D:A( 211 cited in Ibid#. &bservers are ambivalent about t9e possibilit0 of ac9ieving t9e @D+s b0
21%. <owever( eit9er wa0( it opens new opportunities for foreign aid to flouris9. If t9e0 are ac9ieved( given
9ow fundamental foreign aid 9as been to it( one need not to be a nerd in development studies to predict t9at
world leaders will become more incentivi1ed to vote more aids post 21% into ac9ieving t9e ultimate goal of
Eeradicating e%treme +overty from t9e face of t9e eart9 b0 2;F as agreed upon b0 world leaders at -io in
212 !?9e -eport of t9e <ig9-Ievel "anel of Eminent "ersons on t9e "ost-21% Development :genda( 21;5 7#.
&n t9e ot9er 9and t9ose w9o fear t9at we ma0 not ac9ieve t9e goals 9ave alread0 pointed Elac. of financeF as t9e
ma=or cause. *or instance Jeffre0 Sac9s 9ave emp9asi1ed t9at financing is t9e most crucial obstacle for ac9ieving
t9e @D+s b0 21%. <e stated t9at developing countries 9ave done t9eir s9are b0 formulating national
scientificall0 proven plans for attaining t9e @D+s( but t9ese plans 9ave not been implemented due to a lac. of
finance !"anel discussion on :c9ieving t9e @D+s b0 21%5 "reparing for t9e 21 /N @D+ Summit( 265 1#.
?9is means t9at even if t9e world fails to ac9ieve t9e +oals b0 21%( world leaders will still be reJuired to vote
more funds to 9elp ac9ieve t9e goals post 21%. So w9ic9ever wa0 t9e matter will be loo.ed at( in t9e man0
0ears to come( foreign aid will continue to be crucial to global development and povert0 reduction. Alearl0( t9e
configuration of t9e world( t9e current arc9itecture of and trends in global development assistance( t9e levels of
povert0( global and environmental securit08ris. demonstrate t9at foreign aid is necessar0 and will need to grow
and it is growing and will actuall0 grow in t9e future.
*or man0 decades( across all leading donor countries( opinion polls 9ave been conducted to ascertain t9e level
and e2tent of public support for foreign aid. :lt9oug9 t9ere 9ave been fluctuations over time( Et9e aggregate
evidence from t9ese polls provides remar.abl0 clear and consistent findings across almost all donor countries.
*or over 2 0ears( successive opinion polls s9ow an e2tremel0 9ig9 level of support for foreign aidF !-iddell(
27517#. "ublic support for foreign aid is burgeoning alongside t9e global aid budget and all t9ese are
9appening in spite of t9e presented staggering evidence t9at development aid is foundering big time in terms of
reducing global povert0 and ensuring growt9 !Easterl0( 22H Easterl0( 2;H Dic9ter( 2;H Easterl0( 23H
Aalderisi( 23H Easterl0( 27H Easterl0( 26H @o0o( 26H S9leifer( 26#.
:s evinced b0 t9e discussion( contrar0 to opinion and t9e widel0 9eld fear t9at e2posed failures of development
aid will wane down public support for it( w9at is rat9er 9appening is t9at development aid failures 9ave not onl0
induced more donors and ot9er forms of aid !emerging donors and private aid# into t9e global aid arc9itecture
but also ot9er innovative wa0s to ma.e development aid wor. better !for e2ample public G private partners9ips G
see Iawson( 21;#. ?9e development aid industr0 despite t9e dismal results is e2periencing 9ig9 level public
support and donations and t9erefore begs t9e fear t9at full disclosure !of aid failures# will do t9e industr0 in.

!- Full disclosure. agencies/ collaboration and the future of aid
:s alread0 noted above( it is not t9at aid bureaucrats are intuitivel0 bad( 9owever t9e disincentive to come public
wit9 aid failures is ostensibl0 rooted in some good intentions namel05 to protect t9e soul of foreign aid( an
intervention( widel0 claimed as 9aving great potentials and goodwill to ensure economic growt9( deal wit9
global povert0( diseases( social and all ot9er forms of ineJualities as well as ot9er global t9reats suc9 as
terrorism and depletion of t9e environment !,urnside R Dollar( 2H Aarol( 22H /N 22H Sac9s( 2%H
,and0opad90a0 et al( 26H /N( 21H /ND"( 211#. <owever( as t9oroug9l0 demonstrated 9erein( suc9 a
condition !aid funds dr0ing up# is nearl0 inconceivable given t9e consistent growing volumes of development aid
and t9e ine29austible fund of public support t9e development assistance industr0 is en=o0ing against t9e
bac.drop of growing rate of global povert0( 9unger and diseases in :frica and several parts of t9e world. Indeed
as noted b0 Easterl0( Et9e problem of world povert0 will not go awa0 an0time soonF !Easterl0( 22H ;2#. In fact(
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Ea new geograp90 of povert0 is KevenL emerging( in w9ic9 middle-income and emerging countries are
increasingl0 prominentF !?omasi( 21)5 3#. >9ic9 means t9at ric9 countries will for Juite a long time be
reJuired to pump more and more mone0 and ot9er resources into foreign aid. :ccordingl0( in spite of t9e
scat9ing criticisms against and continuous failure of foreign aid !since ,auerDs 1672 E1issent on 1e!elopment2)(
t9ere is a E9ig9 probabilit0 t9at bot9 t9e aid industr0 and individual agencies will survive indefinitel0F !Easterl0(
22H ;2#. In effect( t9e fear t9at an all-out war of negative advertising would li.el0 lead t9e public to form
negative images of foreign aid becomes void. Alearl0( aid agencies and bureaucrats ris. not9ing in t9e event of
full disclosure or peer criticisms per9aps e2cept one t9ing5 t9e benefits of suc9 an e2ercise. :s noted earlier( t9e
essentials of t9e success of an0 activit0 inter alia are feedbac.( collaboration of similar efforts and information
s9aring w9ic9 are rooted in learning b0 doing and are seJuel to only critical !peer# evaluation and collaboration(
full disclosure( admission of failures and 9onest acceptance of faults. ,0 suppressing full and balanced
disclosure of pro=ectsD information( collaborative efforts and peer reviews( aid agencies are irredeemabl0 den0ing
t9e industr0 of a beneficent opportunit0 to learn from t9eir colleagues( failed past pro=ects and e2periences and
ot9er criticall0 useful information. It is t9erefore in t9e interest of t9e aid communit0 to open up( collaborate
among t9emselves and encourage peer reviews !since one aid agenc0 .nows more about bad performance of
anot9er agenc0 t9an outside evaluators#. ?9is will lead to finding not onl0 mista.es( but also t9ings t9at wor.
and redirection of more resources into doing more of t9ose t9ings to ac9ieve incremental progress. :id agencies
must appreciate t9at w9ilst t9e0 aim at success( failures are also inevitable G development comes about as a
result of a seJuence of trials and errors( followed b0 revised trials and reliance on past e2perience. ?9erefore
negative evaluation of pro=ect in itself is not necessaril0 bad( itDs a learning opportunit0G it 9elps not onl0 one
agenc0 but also t9e ot9er several agencies to better understand t9e c9allenges and opportunities in t9eir terrains
of operation( learn w9at not to do and also t9e best wa0s to do w9at oug9t to be done. "eer review would allow
for repeated interactions( build networ. and trust among aid bureaucrats and lead to information s9aring
!Easterl0( 23#. <elping t9e poor toda0 reJuires learning from past efforts. ?9erefore( if t9e aid communit0 are
reall0 mindful of 9elping poor people( t9en t9e0 must face t9e unpleasant !albeit 9armless# realit0 of self and
peer criticisms( collaboration and full disclosure of failed interventions and past aid pro=ects. &t9erwise( t9e0 are
bound to repeat t9e more-t9an-five decades-old c0cle of idealism( 9ig9 e2pectations and disappointing results
!Ibid.#. ?9e writing of memoirs on w90 some interventions did not wor. b0 retired aid professionals is admirable
but unfortunatel0( suc9 good wor.s do not retroactivel0 correct t9e 9it9erto avoidable damages alread0 done.
It seems t9e real bases of t9e support for foreign aid la0 in 9umanitarian and egalitarian concerns in
t9e donor countries !Iumsdaine( 166;H -iddell( 27# and t9ese motivations appear too strong enoug9 to be
easil0 wrestled down b0 negative news about aid G t9e consistent support and outpouring of 9uge sums of mone0
and ot9er resources into foreign aid for more t9an five decades evidence t9is. >9ilst foreign aid is clearl0 failing
to ac9ieve t9e intended results( it seems w9at is 9ig9 on t9e minds of t9e benefactors is not cutting t9e suppl0 but
finding wa0s to ma.e it more effective G the big push. :s 9umbl0 conceded b0 one aid critic( 3t9e foreign aid
establis9ment 9as won t9e battle for t9e 9earts( minds( and wallets of >estern ta2pa0ers. "eter ,auerDs prescient
warnings and % 0ears of evidence notwit9standing( t9e >est is about to spend anot9er trillion dollars on foreign
aid in t9e ne2t couple of decadesF !S9leifer( 265;$$#. So w90 t9e aid communit0 must become petrifiedO

!0 1onclusion
*or t9e past five decades( more t9an 2.; trillion dollars 9ave been spent on foreign( 0et no significant economic
growt9 and povert0 reduction 9ave occasioned in poor countries G in some cases povert0 9as rat9er increased.
*or fear of bleeding awa0 public support for foreign aid( aid agencies suppress self and peer criticisms( feedbac.
and information on failed pro=ects( t9e0 coordinate less and tr0 to alwa0s present a convincing portrait of t9e
industr0 t9at aid is wor.ing. <owever( t9e failure to ac9ieve economic growt9 and povert0 reduction wit9 more
t9an 2.; trillion dollars in more t9an five decades indelibl0 evidences t9at aid is not wor.ing. Aontrar0 to t9e aid
communit0Ds fear t9at reported failures of foreign aid ma0 cause aid funds to dr0 up( more and more funds and
donors are coming into t9e foreign aid establis9ment despite t9e clearl0 dismal results. ?9e future of foreign aid
seems firml0 secured in view of t9e fact t9at combating global ris.s li.e terrorism( negative impacts of climate
c9ange and t9e ac9ievement of t9e @illennium Development +oals are ine2tricabl0 tied to Et9e big pus9F G
more foreign aid. ?9us( t9e foreign aid establis9ment 9as clearl0 won t9e battle for t9e 9earts( minds( and wallets
of >estern ta2pa0ers and not9ing s9ows t9at aid funds will dr0 up an0time soon. -at9er( t9e >est s9all surel0
spend more trillions of dollars on foreign aid in t9e ne2t couple of decades.
?9e &EAD G D:A 9ave a peer review mec9anism w9ic9 provides a coordinative setting w9ere
member governments compare polic0 e2periences( see. answers to common problems and identif0 good
practices in respect of t9eir domestic and international policies !&EAD G D:A( 2$#. It will be ver0 9elpful if
t9is idea of peer review was e2tended to reviewing t9eir various individual interventions and pro=ects on t9e field
G in poor countries so t9at as t9e0 wor. in similar fields and conte2ts( t9e0 can s9are results( acJuired terrain
.nowledge and e2periences to better understand t9e c9allenges and opportunities in t9eir various terrains of
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operation. :id agencies must open up( see. more avenues for international collaboration and information s9aring(
encourage peer reviews and criticisms( full disclosure of information including t9ose on failed pro=ects to allow
for better learning( information s9aring( learning from past e2periences and peers. ?9is ma0 save foreign aid
agencies of t9eir rat9er unenviable reputation of repeating more-t9an-five-decades-old c0cle of idealism( 9ig9
e2pectations( and disappointing results wit9 more t9an 2.; trillion dollars.

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