DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

MODEL
iGCSE Geography
What is it? (clue is in the name!)
A model to show the changes in birth and
death rate as a country passes through various
stages of development.
Demographic
Model
Transition
Stage 1:
Birth Rate ?
Death Rate?
high
low
W
H
Y
?
decreasing
increasing
fluctuating
Country or region is very
primitive.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
TIME
B
I
R
T
H
S

A
N
D

D
E
A
T
H
S

P
E
R

1
0
0
0

P
E
R

Y
E
A
R

Stage 5
Stage 1
Very high birth rate because:
No contraception or family planning (because
of cost, religion & education
High infant mortality rate so families have
many children to ensure that some survive to
adulthood.
People want big families to work on the land
and look after them in old age.
Children are a sign of virility (male status)
Very high death rate because:
Little medical science (drugs, doctors)
Poor diet, malnutrition
Little clean water & poor sanitation
Famine, disease & plague
The result: High fluctuating population.
Periods of low natural increase
Periods of low natural decrease.
R
a
t
e
s

p
e
r

1
0
0
0

Amazonian
tribes
Stage 2:
Birth Rate ?
high
low
W
H
Y
?
decreasing
increasing
fluctuating
Death Rate?
Country or region has little
development. Mostly rural
population and primary
industries.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
TIME
B
I
R
T
H
S

A
N
D

D
E
A
T
H
S

P
E
R

1
0
0
0

P
E
R

Y
E
A
R

Stage 5
Stage 2: Still high birth rate because:
Still little family planning & high
infant mortality rate.
Rapidly falling death rate because:
Improving medical facilities
More food & more balanced diet
More clean water & better
sanitation
The result: Early expanding.
Rapidly increasing amount of
natural increase.
R
a
t
e
s

p
e
r

1
0
0
0

Kenya
Bangladesh
Stage 3:
Birth Rate ?
high
low
W
H
Y
?
decreasing
increasing
fluctuating
Death Rate?
Country or region is
beginning to industrialize.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
TIME
B
I
R
T
H
S

A
N
D

D
E
A
T
H
S

P
E
R

1
0
0
0

P
E
R

Y
E
A
R

Stage 5
Stage 3:
Rapidly falling birth rate because:
Fewer children needed due to
increased mechanisation &
industrialisation
Lower infant mortality rate
Some family planning &
contraception available
Falling death rate
because:
Improving medical
facilities
Better access to
doctors & hospitals
(roads, larger urban
population)
The result: Late expanding.
Large amount of natural
population increase.
R
a
t
e
s

p
e
r

1
0
0
0

Mexico
Brazil
Stage 4:
Birth Rate ?
high
low
W
H
Y
?
decreasing
increasing
fluctuating
Death Rate?
Country or region has high
levels of development.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
TIME
B
I
R
T
H
S

A
N
D

D
E
A
T
H
S

P
E
R

1
0
0
0

P
E
R

Y
E
A
R

Stage 5
Stage 4:
R
a
t
e
s

p
e
r

1
0
0
0

Low birth rate because:
Family planning & contraception
freely available
Emancipation (improved status)
of women
Later marriages
Desire for material possessions
Low death rate because
Good health care
Good diet & hygiene
The result: Low fluctuating
Low natural increase
4: USA
Stage 5:
Birth Rate ?
high
low
W
H
Y
?
decreasing
increasing
fluctuating
Death Rate?
Country or region is fully
industrialised and has high
levels of development.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
TIME
B
I
R
T
H
S

A
N
D

D
E
A
T
H
S

P
E
R

1
0
0
0

P
E
R

Y
E
A
R

Stage 5
Stage 5??:
R
a
t
e
s

p
e
r

1
0
0
0

Very low birth rate because:
High cost of having children
(education, housing etc)
Later marriages
Emphasis on individual lifestyle
Low death rate
The result: Declining
Low natural decrease
5: Scotland
UK Av
110,000
The Demographic Transition Model (DMT)
The DTM was then used as a predictive model, it was suggested that the patterns seen in
these industrialised countries would be repeated in other countries as they developed/
industrialised.
Population change over time
The graph below shows how the UKs BR, DR and total population have changed over the past 300 years.
The DMT
Strengths Weaknesses
It is dynamic, showing change through
time

It describes what happened in the UK

Many other countries in Europe and
North America went through similar
stages as they industrialized

Some Newly Industrialising countries
(NICs), such as Singapore and South
Korea seemed to go through similar
stages, but faster than Britain has done

The model helps to explain what has
happened and why is has happened in
that particular sequence
It is based on the experience of industrialising countries so is not
relevant to non-industrialising countries

The model assumed that stage 2 followed from industrialisation. In
many countries this has not been the case. Factors that caused the
DR to start falling (better medical care, better sanitation etc) were
imported from colonising countries and so arrived far more quickly
than in Europe.

The model assumed that stage 3 followed several decades after
stage 2 and that the DR fell as a consequence of changes brought
about by changes in the BR. This has often not been the case. In
some countries the onset of stage 3 has been held back by the
populations attitudes to family size, birth control, status, religion etc.
In other cases the fall was speeded up by government intervention,
such as Chinas one child policy.

The original model has had to be adapted to include a 5
th
stage, to
match the changes in population occurring in some countries of
western Europe and Japan in the late 20
th
where DR exceeds the
BR.

Countries in southern Africa, where the DR has risen dramatically
because of HIV/AIDS, appear to have slipped back to a situation
more like stage 1. The model does not help to predict the future of
these countries.

Activities
Complete blank model using p.6
Make notes beneath to explain each section

Copy summary note
Population growth depends upon changes in birth and death rates. The
demographic transition model shows that as a country becomes more
developed, its death rate and then birth rate fall due to improvements in
medical care and the changed status of women etc. However, it is
important to remember that all models have their limitations. This model
assumes that all countries will develop in the way most MEDCs did but
this is not necessarily true. Some LEDCs may never fully industrialise and
others may leapfrog some stages. The model also did not anticipate
developed countries experiencing population decrease. Stage 5
therefore had to be added.
Prep
Read over pages 6 & 7

Start vocab sheet for population

Answer Q7, p21 but do not do b(iii)

Tips for good work!
Write out answers in full sentences.

Give lots of detail in each answer this is GCSE year and you need
to get used to giving the very best answers you can.

Be as neat as you can it gets the person marking your work
(either me or an examiner) on your side.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzxREH08
EkI