STA 4321/5325 - Spring 2010

Exam 2
February 24, 2010
Full Name: KEY
On my honor, I have neither given nor received unauthorized aid on this examination.
Signature:
This is a 50 minute exam. There are 4 problems, worth a total of 40 points.
You may use one letter-size sheet of your own notes and a standard scientic calculator. You
may not use any other references (e.g. books, notes, or text-capable devices).
You are not required to bring a calculator you may leave your answers in an arithmetic
form from which the numerical answer could be immediately calculated.
Remember to show your work. Answers lacking adequate justication may not receive
full credit.
Write all answers in the spaces provided. If you require more space to write your answer, you
may use the back side of the page.
Please have your UF student ID card available.
1
Problem 1: Let X be the number of heads observed in 64 tosses of a fair coin.
(a) [2 pts] What distribution does X have? (Name it and give values of any relevant parameters.)
Solution: Since X is obtained by repeating 64 independent Bernoulli trials, X is a
Binomial random variable. Therefore,
X binomial(n = 64, p =
1
2
)
(b) [4 pts] Provide E(X) and V (X). You may use the identities established in class about this
specic distribution.
Solution:
= E(X) = np = 64
1
2
= 32

2
= V (X) = np(1 p) = 64
1
2
(1
1
2
) = 16
(c) [4 pts] Using Tchebyshes theorem, provide an interval, such that the probability of X lies
in this interval is at least 0.75.
Solution: By Tchebyshes theorem
P (|X E(X)| < k) 1
1
k
2
We want 1
1
k
2
= 0.75. Hence k = 2. Then,
P (|X E(X)| < k) 1
1
k
2
P (|X 32| < 2 4) 1
1
2
2
P(24 < X < 40) 0.75
2
Problem 2: A car salesman has to sell 3 cars. He is provided with a very large (innite for
practical purposes) list of customers. He approached customers sequentially according to the list.
The probability that he makes a successful sale to any customer is 0.2. He stops as soon as he
sells 3 cars. Suppose that all the customers behave independently of each other. Let
X = Number of failed sales before the rst successful sale.
(a) [2 pts] What distribution does X have? (Name it and give values of any relevant parameters.)
Solution: For any customer, making a sale or not is a Bernoulli experiment. X is obtained
by repeating independent Bernoulli trials until the rst successful outcome observed (here it
is a sale with probability 0.2). Therefore X is a geometric random variable. Hence,
X geometric(p = 0.2)
(b) [3 pts] Find the probability that there will be 5 failed sales before the rst successful sale?
Solution: x = 5 and p = 0.2
P(X = 5) = 0.2 (1 0.2)
5
0.0655
(c) [2 pts] Let Y = be the number of failed sales before the third successful sale. What distribution
does Y have? (Name it and give values of any relevant parameters.)
Solution: Y is a negative binomial random variable with r = 3 and p = 0.2, as it is
obtained by repeating independent Bernoulli trials until r successes (Y equals to the
number of failures before r) successes. Hence,
Y neg.binom(r = 3, p = 0.2)
(d) [3 pts] What is the expected number of customers needed to be approached to sell three cars?
Solution: The car saleman has to approach Y +3 customers to be able to make 3 successful
sales in total. Hence, the expected number of customers needed to be approached is
E(Y + 3) = E(Y ) + 3 = 3
1 0.2
0.2
+ 3 = 15
3
Problem 3: Customer arrivals at a checkout counter in a department store have a Poisson
distribution with an average of nine per hour.
(a) [2 pts] Find the probability that exactly 7 customers arrive in a given hour.
Solution: Let X be the number of customer arrivals at the check counter in an hour.
Given, X Poisson( = 9). Hence,
P(X = 7) = e
9

9
7
7!
0.117
(b) [4 pts] Assume that the number of customer arrivals at the counter in each hour behaves
independently. Find the probability that exactly 12 customers arrive from 9 AM to 11 AM.
Solution: Let Y be the number of customer arrivals at the check counter in two hours.
Given, Y Poisson( = 2 9 = 18). Hence,
P(Y = 12) = e
18

9
12
12!
0.0368
(c) [4 pts] Let X Poisson(). Find E

(X + 1)
2

. You may use the identities established in

class about Poisson distribution.
Hint: Use (t + 1)
2
= t
2
+ 2t + 1 followed by linearity of expectations and write down E

X
2

in terms of E (X) and V (X).

Solution: Note that E(X) = and V (X) =
We know that V (X) = E(X
2
) (E(X))
2
. Then E(X
2
) = V (X) + (E(X))
2
= +
2
.
E

(X + 1)
2

= E

X
2
+ 2X + 1

= E(X
2
) + 2E(X) + 1
= +
2
+ 2 + 1
=
2
+ 3 + 1
4
Problem 4: A box contains 4 orange and 6 blue marbles.
(a) [2 pts] Suppose 5 marbles are drawn sequentially, at random, without replacement. Let
X be the number of orange marbles among the selected 5 marbles. What distribution does
X have? (Name it and give values of any relevant parameters.)
Solution: X is a hypergeometric random variable with N = 10, k = 4, and n = 5, as it
corresponds to the number of items of a single type chosen (without replacement) from a
collection of objects of two types. Therefore,
X hyper.geom(N = 10, k = 4, n = 5)
(b) [3 pts] What is the probability that exactly 3 of the selected marbles are orange?
Solution: Given x = 3, N = 10, k = 4, and n = 5
P(X = 3) =

4
3

6
2

10
5
=
5
21
0.238
(c) [2 pts] Now suppose that the selection in part (a) is done with replacement. Let Y be the
number of orange marbles among the selected 5 marbles. What distribution does Y have?
(Name it and give values of any relevant parameters.)
Solution: Since the selection is done with replacement, the chance of observing orange
marble in each selection is p =
k
N
=
4
10
= 0.4. Therefore, Y is a binomial random variable
with n = 5 and p = 0.4. Hence,
Y binomial(n = 5, p = 0.4)
(d) [3 pts] Answer part (b) again, but under the assumption that the selection is with replace-
ment.
Solution: y = 3, n = 5, and p = 0.4. Hence,
P(Y = 3) =

5
3

0.4
3
(1 0.4)
(53)
0.23
5