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239 International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering

ISSN 0974-5904, Volume 04, No 06 SPL, October 2011, pp 239-242


#020410206 Copyright 2011 CAFET-INNOVA TECHNICAL SOCIETY. All rights reserved
Predicting Discharge in Tidally Affected Rivers Using Genetic Algorithm
Saurabh Sharma
Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi-835215, INDIA saurabh.lamgallardo@hotmail.com
Prithvi Raj Jain
Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi-835215, INDIA prithviraj1111@gmail.com.
Rajeev Ranjan Sahay
Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Ranchi-835215, INDIA
Email: rajeev_sahay@yahoo.co.in

ABSTRACT: In the present work, new expressions for discharge in tidally affected rivers have been derived employing
genetic algorithm (GA). The proposed expressions use few geometric and hydraulic characteristics of rivers which are
readily available to field engineers. The developed GA models were applied in forecasting flows of Nakdong River at
Samrangjin Gauging station in South Korea, which is highly affected by tidal waves. The comparative study of the
prediction by the proposed expressions and by those obtained from the robust minimum covariance determinant method
(RMCD) suggests superiority of new expressions for predicting flows in tidally affected rivers.

KEYWORDS: Stage Height, Index Velocity.

INTRODUCTION
In flood management or river water diversion strategy, it
is important to accurately estimate the discharge of a river.
Normally, engineers make use of the rating curve for the
purpose which is an empirical relationship between the
water level (also called the stage) and discharge. This is
established with the help of field measurements of stage
and discharge. But direct measurement of discharge,
which is required for development of the rating curve, in
estuaries has recently become possible with the advent of
ultrasonic discharge measurement techniques. Ultrasonic
measurement is done for: 1) representative index velocity
used for in-situ estimation of mean water velocity, and ii)
discharge. The large deviations between the measured and
the rating-curve-predicted discharges have made planners
of the water-schemes wary of using rating curves. This is
especially true for the tidally affected rivers and estuaries
where the rating curves are not static and divided by
twice-daily variations in the tidal stage height and the
velocity. However, the error lies in the methodologies
adopted in the development of the rating curves which are
not able to capture the nonlinear relationships between the
input and output parameters.

The objective of this research is to investigate the
efficiency of GA model in development of rating curves in
tidally affected rivers. GA is reported to be useful tool for
modelling complex and non-linear processes without
underlying physics being explicitly provided (ASCE
2000).

STUDY AREA
The developed GA model would be used to forecast
floods at the Samrangjin gauging site of Nakdong River,
which is continuously struck by tides from the Pacific
Ocean. The tides enter the Nakdong bay system through
the Nakdong River Barrage which has eight gates to
control the flood and salinity concentration in the River
basin. The Samrangjin gauging site is shown in Fig. 1. It
is located on the 128
0
49.5

degrees east longitude and


35
0
22.8

degrees north latitude and its distance from the


gate of estuary is 45km. In order to compare the predictive

ability of the developed GAs with the existing rating
equations (Lee and Cheong 2009), published 68 datasets
measured at Samrangjin station are used. Since the
Samrangjin gauging station is in a tidally affected river
where the stage height is not uniquely related to the ebb-
tide discharge, the existing rating curves are not
appropriate for estimating discharges at the low tide flow
conditions. To overcome these challenges, new rating
curves using robust minimum covariance determinant
method (RMCD) was developed by Lee and Cheong
(2009). GAs developed by authors of the present study
suggests their superiority over RMCD.

GENETIC ALGORITHM (GA)
In recent times genetic algorithm has evolved into a
powerful optimization technique as it can handle
nonlinear, discontinuous, and probabilistic problems
deftly, which traditional techniques find difficult to
handle. One can find good introductions to GA in the
works of Goldberg (1989), Michalewiez (1992), and Deb
(2002). GAs are computerized search and optimization
procedures analogous to natural genetics and natural
selection.

In a GA model, the entire population of strings form a
generation. A set of genetic operators (selection,
crossover, and mutation) are employed on chromosomes
of this generation to create chromosomes for next
generation. This operation is repeated until a stopping

Fig. 1 Bain map of the Nakdong River Basin, South Korea
240
Saurabh Sharma, Prithvi Raj Jain, Rajeev Ranjan Sahay
International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering
ISSN 0974-5904, Volume 04, No 06 SPL, October 2011, pp 239-242

Fig: 2. Flowchart representing the working of Genetic Algorithm criterion is reached.

The criterion may be either the number of generations, the
change in the fitness value of chromosomes between two
consecutive generations, or final fitness value. It is
expected that most of the fitness values of later
generations would be better from the earlier generations,
yet, we cannot expect the best solution in the final
generation. The working structure of a GA model has
been given in Figure 1.

GA work with a string-coding of variables. The advantage
of working with a coding of variables is that the coding
discretizes the search space even if the function is
continuous, making it efficient for discrete and
discontinuous functions.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Genetic algorithm was implemented in MATLAB 2010a.
Care was taken to separate the total data sets into two
groups of derivation and verification with similar
statistical characteristics. These characteristics are given
in Table 3. Expressions were developed using various
input sets. The first and second input set consists of D, the
stage height differences and H, the stage height in metre.
The third input set consists of U
i
,

the index velocity and
A, the effective cross-sectional area and the fourth input
set equation consists of various coefficients as listed in
Table 3. The ability of GA to predict discharge is checked.
The initial population was taken to be 200 and the
simulation was run for 1000 generations to find the
minimum root mean square error which gave us a
particular set of values of the constants for each equation.
Once the expression was satisfactorily derived, nineteen
testing datasets were utilized for predicting the river
discharge Based on various performance indices,
predictions from the newly derived expressions were
compared with those obtained from RMCD model (Lee
and Cheong 2009). Comparison performance indices
considered in the present study are coefficient of
determination (R
2
), discrepancy ratio (DR) and accuracy
which are defined as
2
1 1 1 2


=

= = =
m p
N
i
N
i
m
N
i
p m P
S S N
Q Q Q Q
R
(1)
DR =
m
P
Q
Q
log
(2)
Accuracy = 1 (accurate, if DR lies between -0.1 to 0.1),
otherwise 0. (3)
where, Q
p
is the predicted discharge and, Q
m
is the
measured discharge, S
p
and S
m
are standard deviations of
predicted and measured values, respectively and N is the
number of observation. From the Eq.(1), it is clear that
DR = 0 suggests that the predicted value of the discharge
is identical to the measured discharge; if DR > 0, the
predicted value of the discharge overestimates, and if
DR< 0, it underestimates. The performance indices of
newly derived expressions utilizing GA along with those
employing RMCD are given in Table (4). Table (4)
concludes the best predictive model in the present case is
the fourth model with one input parameter, i.e., index
velocity (U
i
). The model has the highest accuracy at
89.4% and the largest R
2
at 0.98, The prediction by the
second model with input parameters U
i
and A is also
satisfactory However, the first and the second models are
found to be inadequate in forecasting discharge in a tidally
affected river. Here, both accuracy and R
2
are less than
satisfactory.

CONCLUSION
Knowledge of accurate discharge through a river is
essential for water allocation, water diversion, flood
fighting strategies and water rights the traditional rating
curves and available empirical expressions for estimating
discharge in tidally affected rivers are evaluated and were
found inadequate. In the present work, implementing
genetic algorithm on published field data, new empirical
expressions for estimating discharge in tidally affected
rivers have been derived. The proposed expressions use
few hydraulic and geometric characteristics of a river
which are normally available to field engineers. A case
study has been made on Samrangjin gauging station of
River Nakdong in South Korea. Performance of new
expressions is compared with those of Lee and Cheong
(2009). Based on various performance indices, i.e.,
coefficient of determination, discrepancy ratio and
accuracy, new expressions are found superior to other
considered expressions. The best performing GA model,
with only mean index velocity as input, has coefficient of
determination equal to 0.98 and accuracy as 88.9%.
241 Predicting Discharge in Tidally Affected Rivers Using Genetic Algorithm
International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering
ISSN 0974-5904, Volume 04, No 06 SPL, October 2011, pp 239-242
Table 2. Geometric and hydraulic characteristics of Nakdong River at Samrangjin station in S. Korea ( Lee and Cheong 2009)


* Datasets used for derivation set.





Date
Q
m
3
/s
H
m
T
m
D
m
W
s
m
A m
2
U
i
m/s
U
m/s
*13-01-2005 119.35 0.83 0.35 0.48 356 2589.65 0.044 0.05
*21-01-2005 83.620 0.73 0.12 0.61 355 2570.13 0.026 0.03
31-01-2005 91.940 0.81 0.72 0.09 355 2588.38 0.018 0.04
21-02-2005 143.42 0.81 0.52 0.29 355 2552.25 0.073 0.06
*02-03-2005 111.75 0.80 0.39 0.41 355 2596.88 0.047 0.04
10-03-2005 166.02 0.75 0.13 0.62 356 2406.53 0.092 0.07
*18-03-2005 225.27 0.77 0.33 0.44 356 2488.00 0.077 0.09
28-03-2005 352.51 0.82 0.18 0.64 356 2525.55 0.179 0.14
*06-04-2005 196.34 0.70 -0.11 0.81 356 2502.00 0.098 0.08
*14-04-2005 262.67 0.74 0.15 0.59 355 2536.75 0.136 0.10
25-04-2005 271.81 0.66 -0.41 0.80 356 2531.25 0.132 0.11
*02-05-2005 120.97 0.76 0.23 0.53 357 2523.40 0.061 0.05
11-05-2005 270.80 0.77 0.26 0.51 357 2501.25 0.145 0.11
19-05-2005 175.72 0.68 0.03 0.65 356 2496.90 0.104 0.07
27-05-2005 147.80 0.75 0.52 0.23 357 2512.95 0.085 0.06
*07-06-2005 274.69 0.70 0.07 0.63 357 2501.65 0.133 0.11
*15-06-2005 257.27 0.68 -0.17 0.85 357 2486.05 0.155 0.10
23-06-2005 166.55 0.68 0.11 0.57 357 2488.35 0.101 0.07
01-07-2005 554.30 0.77 0.19 0.58 357 2551.25 0.337 0.22
*11-07-2005 1093.7 1.17 0.29 0.88 361 2823.50 0.543 0.39
19-07-2005 440.93 0.77 0.31 0.46 356 2438.25 0.232 0.18
*27-07-2005 301.97 0.67 -0.11 0.78 356 2143.10 0.193 0.14
04-08-2005 1805.0 1.58 0.67 0.91 365 2893.00 0.766 0.62
*12-08-2005 982.30 0.93 0.91 0.02 357 2450.08 0.450 0.40
*23-08-2005 2197.9 2.26 1.33 0.93 357 2808.18 0.888 0.78
30-08-2005 615.40 0.85 0.41 0.44 350 2303.75 0.308 0.27
*08-09-2005 483.49 1.01 0.21 0.80 360 2325.75 0.173 0.21
16-09-2005 263.48 0.87 0.57 0.30 357 2238.98 0.131 0.12
*27-09-2005 439.75 0.70 0.15 0.55 350 2352.00 0.232 0.19
06-10-2005 319.36 0.75 0.26 0.49 352 2258.75 0.172 0.14
14-10-2005 169.71 0.76 0.48 0.28 352 2256.40 0.090 0.08
*24-10-2005 114.72 0.83 0.64 0.19 352 2274.70 0.077 0.05
*02-11-2005 135.16 0.74 -0.02 0.76 352 2222.30 0.088 0.06
*09-11-2005 99.570 0.73 0.54 0.19 352 2216.70 0.043 0.04
17-11-2005 163.15 0.66 0.25 0.41 352 2186.55 0.066 0.07
25-11-2005 133.70 0.74 0.36 0.38 352 2207.80 0.086 0.06
*05-12-2005 123.65 0.75 0.46 0.29 352 2202.50 0.085 0.06
*13-12-2005 129.08 0.76 0.29 0.47 352 2231.40 0.086 0.06
21-12-2005 161.58 0.75 0.29 0.46 343 2222.05 0.084 0.07
242
Saurabh Sharma, Prithvi Raj Jain, Rajeev Ranjan Sahay
International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering
ISSN 0974-5904, Volume 04, No 06 SPL, October 2011, pp 239-242
Table 3. Statistical characteristics of datasets





Fig.3. Measured and predicted discharges by GA models
(Verification set) x


























REFRENCES

[1] ASCE (1996). Task Committee on Hydrology
Handbook of Management Group D., 2
nd
Ed., New
York, 752-765.
[2] Deb K (2002). Multi-Objective optimization using
evolutionary algorithms. John Wiley and Sons Asia.
[3] Goldberg DE (2001) Genetic Algorithms In: Search,
Optimization and Machine Learning. Addison-
Wesley New York.
[4] Lee, S. And Cheong, T. S. (2009). Development of
regression equations for the water discharge
estimation n tidally affected rivers. KSCE journal of
civil eng. 13(3), 195-203.
[5] Michalewicz Z (1992). Genetic algorithm + data
structures = evolutionary programs. Springer, New
York.














Equations
Discharge
Ranges
Estimates
R
2

Accuracy
(%)
c d
Q= H

D


GA 83-950 1521.4 4.118 0.793 - - 0.35 55.5
RMCD
83-950 1502.3 3.692 0.893 - - 0.34 44.4
Q =(H+ c)

(D+ d)


GA
83-950 1510.2 4.784 0.857 0.038 0.002 0.39 44.4
RMCD
83-950 1794.7 4.816 0.956 0.02 0.03 0.49 38.9
Q = ( +U
i
)A
GA
83-2200 -0.002 0.828 - - - 0.98 84.2
RMCD
83-2200 -0.002 0.829 - - - 0.98 84.2
Q = + c( +U
i
)
GA
83-2200 -0.096 46.46 0.023 49.04 - 0.98 88.9
RMCD 83-2200 -0.002 0.829 -1.417 2411.8 - 0.98 94.4

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