Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
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Grfico 8-8: Tipos de acidentes no local de trabalho (valores absolutos)
Risco, Vulnerabilidade Social e Estratgias de Planeamento Uma Abordagem Integrada
260
84,0
16,0
,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
sim no
Grfico 8-9: Ajudou a outrem em situao de emergncia (%)
19,2
15,7
42,2
14,0
23,9
,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
familiares colegas vizinhos pessoas
conhecidas
desconhecidos
Grfico 8-10: Quem ajudou em situao de emergncia (%)
Risco, Vulnerabilidade Social e Estratgias de Planeamento Uma Abordagem Integrada
261
5,9
94,1
,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
sim no
Grfico 8-11: Inquiridos com pessoas acamadas em casa (%)
Outro dado importante o ter sido afectado pelas perigosidades apresentadas na tabela da
percepo ao risco. 50 inquiridos referiram j ter sido afectados por pelo menos uma dessas
perigosidades, sendo que os fogos florestais se destacam claramente como aquela que afectou
um maior nmero de respondentes.
5
7
4
11
3
7
ondas de calor tempestades deslizamentos fogos florestais acidentes de
viao
fogos urbanos
Grfico 8-12: Perigos por que foram afectados mais inquiridos*
* valores absolutos
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262
8.3.1 Prticas e caractersticas dos inquiridos
Com base nestes dados, utilizmos um conjunto de ndices para verificar possibilidade de
existncia de relaes experincias e prticas e as varveis base (tipologia da rea, classe
social, escolaridade e idade). A este nvel, o ndice somativo de prticas de mitigao de
riscos s apresentou correlao com a escolaridade e a idade dos inquiridos.
Tabela 8-4: Prticas e escolaridade
Escolaridade
Total
ndice de
prticas
0-3 4-9 10-12 Superior
Baixo (0-1)
31,0% 30,6% 29,9% 27,6% 29,6%
Mdio (2-3)
61,9% 51,7% 37,4% 44,3% 46,7%
Alto (4-6)
7,1% 17,7% 32,7% 28,2% 23,7%
Pearson Chi-square= 0,002
Tabela 8-5: Prticas e escales etrios
Escales etrios
Total
ndice de
prticas
18-29 30-49 50-64 >64
Baixo (0-1) 34,0% 25,5% 30,9% 29,9% 29,8%
Mdio (2-3) 35,4% 44,0% 52,3% 57,3% 46,6%
Alto (4-6) 30,6% 30,4% 16,8% 12,8% 23,6%
Pearson Chi-square= 0,000
A experincia com situaes de risco e/ou de emergncia no tem qualquer relao com este
ndice. No entanto, quando encaradas individualmente, as vrias prticas encontram-se
relacionadas no s com esta experincia, como tambm com algumas variveis base. O
contacto com situaes de emergncia apresenta correlaes estatisticamente significativas
com quatro itens da seco dedica aos equipamentos e medidas de preveno e resposta a
situaes de emergncia: conhecimento do nmero de telefone dos bombeiros, conhecimento
do nmero de telefone das foras policiais, posse de alarme de incndio e de alarme anti-
intruso. Em todos estes casos, os inquiridos que tiveram contacto com situaes de risco tm
uma maior probabilidade de responder positivamente s questes sobre estes itens.
Quanto ao tipo de local de residncia (urbano, rural ou misto), existem correlaes com trs
itens: existncia de extintor no prdio, posse de estojo de primeiros socorros e de comida de
reserva. Se no caso da existncia de extintor no prdio a relao bvia nas zonas rurais e
mistas h menos prdios de habitao. Nos outros dois casos, as correlaes so de sinal
contrrio. Se na posse de estojo de primeiros socorros os inquiridos de zonas urbanas
aparecem claramente sobrerepresentados em relao aos das zonas rurais e mistas, no caso da
comida de reserva a situao exactamente inversa.
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263
No que diz respeito idade dos inquiridos, foram encontradas correlaes com trs itens:
percursos pr-definidos, conhecimento do telefone nacional de emergncia e conhecimento do
telefone dos bombeiros. Nos casos do ponto de encontro e conhecimento do nmero nacional
de emergncia, so os dois grupos etrios mais baixos (18-29 e 30-49) os sobrerrepresentados;
no caso do telefone dos bombeiros, so os dois grupos intermdios (30-49 e 50-64) que
demonstram ter um maior conhecimento desta medida.
Tal como na percepo dos riscos, tambm na adopo de medidas de preveno e resposta a
escolaridade aparece como sendo o factor com maior poder explicativo: foram encontradas
correlaes significativas com oito dos itens em considerao: existncia de percursos pr-
definidos, posse de curso de socorrismo, posse de assistncia mdica privada, conhecimento
dos nmeros de telefone de emergncia nacional e dos bombeiros, posse de extintor (em
particular, no prdio), posse de gua de reserva e de alarme anti-intruso. O nvel de
escolaridade proporcional posse de todas estas medidas e equipamentos, com excepo da
gua de reserva, que inversamente proporcional escolaridade, facto que poder estar
relacionado com a sobrerepresentao dos grupos menores nveis de escolaridade nas zonas
rurais onde esta prtica mais comum.
A classe surge correlacionada com quatro dos itens apresentados aos inquiridos: assistncia
mdica privada, presena de extintor no prdio e os dois alarmes, de incndio e anti-intruso.
No caso da assistncia mdica privada, a pequena burguesia tcnica e do enquadramento
que aparece como a que adere mais a este tipo de medida. J no caso do extintor no prdio, a
esta classe junta-se a burguesia. No caso dos alarmes, quer de anti-intruso quer de incndio,
so a pequena burguesia tcnica e de enquadramento e a pequena burguesia proprietria as
classes sobrerepresentadas.
Decidiu-se tambm fazer o cruzamento entre a posse de meios e medidas de preveno e
resposta a situaes de emergncia e a presena, no agregado familiar dos inquiridos, de
crianas com idade inferior a 13 anos e de idosos com idade superior a 64. As nicas
correlaes encontradas foram as que revelam que os agregados familiares com crianas tm
uma maior probabilidade de ter estojo de primeiro socorros e percursos pr-definidos que os
agregados familiares onde no h crianas.
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264
ainda interessante verificar que o contacto com situaes de risco no parece influenciar a
percepo dos riscos que os inquiridos tm ao nvel do seu local de residncia, mas
influencia-a ao nvel dos riscos no concelho.
Tabela 8-6: Prticas e percepo do risco
Percepo do risco ao nvel
do concelho
Total
ndice de
prticas
Baixo
(1-2,5)
mdio
(2,51-
3,0)
alto (>3)
Baixo (0-1) 32,1% 36,6% 17,7%
30,0%
Mdio (2-3) 47,7% 45,6% 47,3%
46,5%
Alto (4-6) 20,2% 17,8% 34,9%
23,5%
Pearson Chi-square= 0,000
8.4 Confiana nas instituies
No questionrio, foi pedido aos inquiridos que avaliassem, numa escala de 1 (nenhuma) a 5
(total) qual o seu grau de confiana nas instituies habitualmente envolvidas em operaes
de socorro e gesto de crises. O nvel de confiana alto em todas as instituies
contempladas, todas elas com valores bem acima do ponto mdio da escala, conforme se pode
ver pelo Grfico 8-13:
Grfico 8-13: Confiana nas instituies e socorro
4,02 4,02 3,44 3,43 3,31 3,38 3,85
1
2
3
4
5
Bombeiros INEM PSP GNR P.C.
Municipal
P.C. Nacional Cruz
Vermelha
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265
Mas enquanto os bombeiros e o Instituto Nacional de Emergncia Mdica tiveram um valor
de confiana atribudo por mais de 95% dos inquiridos, essa atribuio s foi feita em 74,1%
no caso do servio de Proteco Civil Municipal em 80% no caso da Proteco Civil
Nacional. Ou seja, a aco, ou mesmo a simples existncia destas instituies, desconhecida
de uma parte muito significativa da populao, o que torna os resultados difceis de
interpretar.
Tal como no caso da percepo ao risco, a escolaridade e, em menor grau, a idade aparecem
como as variveis que explicam as diferenas na confiana vrias instituies. A tendncia
geral aponta para que os mais velhos e menos escolarizados
Tabela 8-7: Confiana nas instituies e caractersticas dos inquiridos
Tipologia
da rea
Classe Escolaridade Idade
Sig. Sig. Sig. Sig.
Bombeiros ,643 ,843 ,000 ,000
INEM ,809 ,732 ,014 ,016
GNR ,830 ,687 ,000 ,000
PSP ,553 ,859 ,005 ,000
PC municipal ,040 ,199 ,011 ,094
PC nacional ,190 ,280 ,036 ,583
Cruz Vermelha ,713 ,737 ,013 ,117
8.3.4. Papel do Estado
Nas questes relativas ao papel do Estado na resposta a situaes de emergncia, verifica-se
uma clara tendncia para a responsabilizao deste, mas, ao mesmo tempo, alguma falta de
confiana denunciada nas respostas questo 3 (h maior confiana no apoio por parte de
pessoas prximas que por parte do Estado). Em particular no que respeita a medidas
preventivas (questes 2 e 5), os inquiridos atribuem claramente ao Estado a funo de evitar a
ocorrncia de desastres e de informar a populao para a sua ocorrncia, mesmo no havendo
perigo imediato.
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266
Tabela 8-8: Papel do Estado
Mdia
Desvio
padro
1. Grande parte das acontecimentos naturais que afectam a minha zona de residncia
so provocados pela aco das pessoas
3,49 ,939
2. A proteco civil s deve avisar as pessoas dos riscos que correm quando existe
uma situao de perigo imediato
2,22 1,014
3. Numa situao de catstrofe mais eficaz o apoio das pessoas prximas que das
entidades oficiais
3,20 ,947
4. Cabe ao Estado tomar medidas preventivas das catstrofes ainda que isso implique
um aumento dos impostos
3,04 1,094
5. As entidades competentes devem impedir as pessoas de construrem habitaes
em stios perigosos mesmo que os terrenos sejam delas
4,30 ,791
6. O Estado tem sempre a obrigao de indemnizar as pessoas que so vtimas de
catstrofes naturais
3,41 1,039
Tambm interessante verificar a relao entre as vrias questes (de escala) respeitantes ao
grau de envolvimento que os inquiridos consideram dever ter o Estado na resposta a situaes
de emergncia. Novamente, so a escolaridade e a idade as variveis responsveis pelas
variaes na atribuio de um papel ao Estado.
Tabela 8-9: Papel do Estado e caractersticas dos inquiridos (ANOVA)
Tipologia
da rea
Classe Escolaridade Idade
Sig. Sig. Sig. Sig.
1. Grande parte das acontecimentos naturais que afectam a
minha zona de residncia so provocados pela aco das
pessoas
,084 ,272 ,718 ,124
2. A proteco civil s deve avisar as pessoas dos riscos que
correm quando existe uma situao de perigo imediato
,970 ,667 ,037 ,010
3. Numa situao de catstrofe mais eficaz o apoio das
pessoas prximas que das entidades oficiais
,022 ,004 ,000 ,000
4. Cabe ao Estado tomar medidas preventivas das catstrofes
ainda que isso implique um aumento dos impostos
,035 ,059 ,000 ,303
5. As entidades competentes devem impedir as pessoas de
construrem habitaes em stios perigosos mesmo que os
terrenos sejam delas
,080 ,246 ,000 ,134
6. O Estado tem sempre a obrigao de indemnizar as pessoas
que so vtimas de catstrofes naturais
,916 ,281 ,250 ,016
Os inquiridos das zonas rurais so os que dependem mais do apoio de pessoas prximas, em
detrimento do Estado, e, concomitantemente, os que so mais avessos possibilidade de
aumento de impostos para que sejam implementadas medidas de preveno. A classe
contribui apenas para explicar a variao no confronto entre apoio por parte de pessoas
prximas e Estado (pergunta 3): a pequena burguesia tcnica e de enquadramento
claramente mais dependente do Estado que a pequena burguesia de execuo e o operariado.
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267
A idade a escolaridade seguem a tendncia verificada nas anlises anteriores: os mais novos e
os mais escolarizados tendem a considerar mais importante o papel do Estado que os restantes
inquiridos.
8.5 Alertas e avisos
No questionrio tambm foi pedido aos inquiridos que respondessem a questes sobre
conhecimento da existncia de avisos por parte do Instituto de Meteorologia, da Proteco
Civil Nacional e da Proteco Civil Municipal. Em caso de resposta positiva, solicitava-se que
respondessem se alteravam ou no os seus comportamentos em funo desses alertas.
Em primeiro lugar, verifica-se uma grande discrepncia no nvel de conhecimento da
populao do concelho em relao aos vrios tipos de alertas. Os avisos emitidos pelo
Instituto de Meteorologia so conhecidos por uma grande maioria dos respondentes, 69,6%,
mas apenas 40,5% conhecem os da Proteco Civil Nacional. A existncia de alertas emitidos
pela Proteco Civil Municipal conhecida por apenas 20,1% da populao. Inversamente, a
resposta aos alertas ao nvel da alterao de rotinas quotidianas maior no caso dos alertas
emitidos pelos servios de proteco civil (63,4%) que no caso dos avisos do Instituto de
Meteorologia (50,0%)
O conhecimento dos alertas e avisos demonstrou estar significativamente dependente de um
grupo de variveis comum a todos eles. O nvel de escolaridade tm todos o mesmo tipo de
influncia no conhecimento dos alertas: os mais jovens, mais escolarizados e que vivem em
casas em melhor estado de conservao tm maior grau de conscincia da existncia destes
alertas.
A classificao auto-atribuda do local de residncia, apenas significativa para os alertas da
Proteco Civil Nacional, com os inquiridos que vivem em reas urbanas a terem maior
conscincia da existncia destes alertas que os que habitam em zonas rurais ou mistas.
J no que diz respeito s classes sociais, existe uma correlao significativa bastante forte
entre estas e o conhecimento de todos os tipos de alerta, embora isso seja mais evidente no
caso dos alertas da meteorologia (Pearson chi-square=0,001) e dos alertas da Proteco Civil
Nacional (Pearson chi-square=0,000). Esta correlao vai no mesmo sentido em todos os trs
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268
casos: a burguesia e a pequena burguesia tcnica e de enquadramento tm um conhecimento
dos alertas superior mdia, verificando-se a situao inversa com todas as restantes classes.
Esta varivel no tem, contudo, efeito sobre a alterao dos comportamentos individuais em
funo de qualquer dos tipos de alerta.
Neste caso dos alertas, optou-se tambm por verificar a existncia de relaes entre estes e a
presena de crianas no agregado familiar dos inquiridos, uma vez que, nestes casos, se trata
j no apenas da segurana dos prprios. Contudo, foram encontradas correlaes
significativas no caso do conhecimento dos alertas da proteco civil municipal: os inquiridos
em cujo agregado h crianas, quer com menos de 12 anos, quer com menos de 5, tm maior
conhecimento da existncia destes alertas.
Foi tambm abordada a questo da procura, por parte dos inquiridos, de informao relativa a
acontecimentos potencialmente perigosos nas suas reas de residncia. 61,3% dos inquiridos
respondeu afirmativamente a esta questo, mas distribuio das respostas bastante desigual.
O nvel de escolaridade apresenta uma relao directa com o hbito de procura de informao,
em que quanto maior o nvel de escolaridade, maior a procura de informao, e com a classe
social, com a Pequena Burguesia Tcnica e de Enquadramento a aparecer claramente
sobrerrepresentada.
35,1 54,2 60,1 75,9
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 - 3 4 - 9 10 - 12 Superior
Grfico 8-14: Percentagem de inquiridos que procuram informao acerca de acontecimentos potencialmente
perigosos na rea de residncia por nvel de escolaridade
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269
Tambm interessante notar que, como se pode ver na Figura 22, embora a questo se
referisse especificamente ao local de residncia dos inquiridos, h uma clara preponderncia
dos mdia nacionais da busca dessa informao, com claro destaque para a televiso,
aparecendo a imprensa local como nica fonte com um valor superior a 50%. Este resultado
em tudo comparvel aos obtidos pelo inqurito de mbito nacional aos novos riscos, conforme
apresentado por Delicado & Gonalves (2007)
59,8
37,9
30,6
30,4
80,7
8,3
12,4
4,2
4,8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Outros
Imprensa local
Imprensa nacional
Rdios locais
Rdios nacionais
Televiso
Stios da proteco civil
Stio do Instituto de Meteorologia
Pessoas conhecidas
Grfico 8-15: Fontes de informao acerca de acontecimentos potencialmente perigosos na rea de residncia
dos inquiridos*
* valores em percentagem
A questo da confiana nos media no foi directamente abordada, mas foi pedido aos
respondentes se consideravam a cobertura noticiosa de desastres naturais e tecnolgicos
adequada ou desadequada. A nica correlao estatisticamente significativa encontrada entre
esta varivel e as outras em considerao, foi com o grau de escolaridade. Existe uma
associao perfeita entre as duas, que mostra um descontentamento crescente com os media
medida que o nvel de escolaridade sobe.
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270
73,7 67,9 58,8 50,4
0
20
40
60
80
100
0-3 4-9 10-12 superior
Grfico 8-16: Percentagem de inquiridos que considera positiva a cobertura noticiosa de situaes de
emergncia adequada por grau de escolaridade
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271
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PARTE IV - Modelos
normativos e jurdicos e
enquadramento
internacional da anlise
da vulnerabilidade social
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Captulo 9 . O dever de tomar em considerao a
vulnerabilidade social na preveno de riscos para uma
proteco civil eficaz e justa Alexandra Arago
9.1 A proteco civil na Unio Europeia
Na Unio Europeia, a proteco civil no uma nova matria de cooperao, mas um
domnio que tem vindo a ganhar relevo e que recentemente se constitucionalizou. Com o
Tratado de Lisboa
17
, a Unio passou a dispor de competncia para desenvolver aces
destinadas a apoiar, coordenar ou completar a aco dos Estados-Membros relativamente
proteco civil18.
Presentemente, o artigo 196. do Tratado sobre o Funcionamento da Unio Europeia esclarece
o mbito e objectivos da proteco civil na UE:
1. A Unio incentiva a cooperao entre os Estados-Membros a fim de reforar a
eficcia dos sistemas de preveno das catstrofes naturais ou de origem humana e de
proteco contra as mesmas.
A aco da Unio tem por objectivos:
a) Apoiar e completar a aco dos Estados-Membros ao nvel nacional, regional e
local em matria de preveno de riscos, de preparao dos intervenientes na
proteco civil nos Estados-Membros e de interveno em caso de catstrofe natural
ou de origem humana na Unio;
b) Promover uma cooperao operacional rpida e eficaz na Unio entre os servios
nacionais de proteco civil;
c) Favorecer a coerncia das aces empreendidas ao nvel internacional em matria
de proteco civil.
2. O Parlamento Europeu e o Conselho, deliberando de acordo com o processo
legislativo ordinrio, estabelecem as medidas necessrias destinadas a contribuir para
a realizao dos objectivos a que se refere o n. 1, com excluso de qualquer
harmonizao das disposies legislativas e regulamentares dos Estados-Membros.
17
O Tratado de Lisboa foi assinado em 13 de Dezembro de 2007 e entrou em vigor em 1 de Janeiro de 2009.
18 Artigo 6 f) do Tratado sobre o Funcionamento da Unio Europeia.
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289
De facto, tal como acontecera com outras polticas, mesmo antes da consagrao
constitucional, j a Unio Europeia (UE) tinha adoptado importantes actos jurdicos
vinculativos, cujo fim imediato era a preveno dos riscos susceptveis de afectar a populao
e o ambiente. Desde a Directiva relativa preveno de acidentes industriais graves
associados a substncias qumicas perigosas, de 1982
19
, cujo fim era a preveno de riscos
tecnolgicos, at mais recente Directiva relativa avaliao e gesto de riscos de
inundao
20
, esta mais orientada para a preveno de um risco natural induzido pelo Homem,
a UE tem alargado continuamente a sua interveno em matria de proteco civil.
9.1.1 Alargamento, aprofundamento e aperfeioamento dos
mecanismos de proteco civil na UE
Assim, uma anlise da actuao da Unio Europeia, no domnio da proteco civil, revela
uma vontade poltica crescente no sentido de alargar, aprofundar e aperfeioar os
mecanismos de proteco civil existentes.
- Alargamento, quanto aos riscos abrangidos pelos deveres de preveno impostos aos
Estados, que comearam por ser apenas riscos antrpicos mas que rapidamente se alargaram
a riscos naturais induzidos pelo Homem;
- Aprofundamento, pela criao de novos mecanismos europeus de coordenao e
financiamento, reforando as capacidades nacionais de interveno;
- Aperfeioamento dos mecanismos institudos, pela introduo de deveres de planeamento a
longo prazo, e ainda pelas exigncias acrescidas de participao e informao.
Deste modo, podemos afirmar que h actualmente um dever do Estado, resultante do Direito
Europeu, de prevenir riscos, e que o cumprimento cabal deste dever exige, do ponto de vista
tcnico, o recurso ao estado da arte da riscologia
21
.
Esta obrigao est expressamente prevista para a preveno e gesto de um risco especfico:
as inundaes: Os Estados-Membros devero basear as suas avaliaes, cartas e planos nas
melhores prticas e melhores tecnologias disponveis adequadas, que no acarretem
custos excessivos no domnio da gesto dos riscos de inundaes22. Ora, as melhores
tcnicas disponveis, s quais os Estados devem recorrer, so certamente as tcnicas mais
19 Directiva 82/501 de 24 de Junho de 1982, alterada pelas Directivas 96/82, de 9 de Dezembro de
1996, 2003/105 de 16 de Dezembro de 2003.
20 Directiva 2007/60, de 23 de Outubro de 2007.
21 Utilizamos aqui a expresso consagrada por Geroges Jousse na obra Trait de Riscologie. La science du
risque Imestra ditions, Maintenon, 2009.
22 Pargrafo 18 do prembulo da Directiva 2007/60, de 23 de Outubro de 2007, relativa avaliao e gesto dos
riscos de inundaes.
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eficazes mas tambm, como veremos, as mais justas de prevenir riscos. na prossecuo
destes dois objectivos que a considerao das vulnerabilidades sociais tem um papel
importante a desempenhar.
9.1.2 Os pilares europeus da proteco civil
O primeiro instrumento estruturante da proteco civil na Europa foi o programa de aco
comunitrio, que foi criado em 1997 e que vigorou at final de 1999, com o objectivo de
contribuir para a proteco das pessoas, do ambiente e dos bens, em caso de catstrofe natural
ou tecnolgica, e destinado a apoiar, complementar os esforos e facilitar a cooperao entre
os Estados-membros em matria de proteco civil, a nvel nacional, regional e local.
Dando continuidade a esta iniciativa, e visando facilitar a troca de experincias e a assistncia
mtua entre os Estados-Membros neste domnio, foi aprovado, em 199923, um novo
programa plurianual destinado a vigorar at final de 2004, tendo posteriormente sido
prorrogado at 2006
24
.
Actualmente, a proteco civil na Unio Europeia25 assenta em dois pilares: um Mecanismo
destinado a facilitar uma cooperao reforada nas intervenes de socorro26, e um
Instrumento Financeiro para a Proteco Civil dirigido para a concesso de assistncia
financeira aos Estados, apoiando e complementando os seus esforos27.
Ambos os instrumentos so reflexos da dupla dimenso da interveno da Unio Europeia:
uma interveno a montante, na preveno dos riscos, e uma interveno a jusante, aps a
verificao da catstrofe.
O Mecanismo, em funcionamento desde 2001, consiste num conjunto de aces destinadas a
facilitar uma melhor coordenao da interveno de socorro por parte dos Estados-Membros e
23 Atravs da Deciso 1999/847/CE do Conselho de 9 de Dezembro de 1999.
24 Pela Deciso 2005/12/CE do Conselho de 20 de Dezembro de 2004.
25 Os antecedentes directos da poltica de proteco civil europeia, na sua configurao actual foram um
conjunto de Resolues do Conselho que, desde 1987, reconhecem a necessidade de melhorar a assistncia
mtua entre Estados Membros em caso de catstrofe natural ou tecnolgica. Referimo-nos s Resolues 87/C
176/01, de 25 de Junho de 1987; 89/C 44/03, de 13 de Fevereiro de 1989; 94/C 313/01, de 31 de Outubro de
1994; 2001/C 82/01, de 26 de Fevereiro de 2001; 2002/C 43/01, de 28 de Janeiro de 2002; 2004/C 8/02, de 22 de
Dezembro de 2003. A estes acresce a Deciso do Conselho 98/685/CE que aprova a Conveno sobre os Efeitos
Transfronteirios dos Acidentes Industriais da Comisso Econmica para a Europa das Naes Unidas, que
contm disposies sobre questes como a preveno, a preparao para situaes de emergncia, a informao
e a participao do pblico, os sistemas de notificao de acidentes industriais, a capacidade de resposta e a
assistncia mtua.
26 Deciso 2001/792, do Conselho de 23 de Outubro de 2001.
27 Deciso 2007/162/CE do Conselho, de 5 de Maro de 2007.
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291
da UE em situaes de ocorrncia ou de ameaa de ocorrncia de uma emergncia grave, que
possa exigir uma resposta urgente. O Mecanismo abrange, nomeadamente:
- identificao das equipas de interveno e de outros meios disponveis nos Estados-
Membros para uma actuao de socorro, em situaes de emergncia;
- criao e implementao de um programa de formao para as equipas de interveno e
demais meios humanos de apoio interveno, bem como para os peritos das equipas de
avaliao e/ou coordenao;
- seminrios, colquios e projectos-piloto sobre os principais aspectos das intervenes;
- constituio e, sempre que necessrio, envio de equipas de avaliao e/ou coordenao;
- criao e gesto de um Centro de Informao e Vigilncia;
- criao e gesto de um sistema comum de comunicao e informao de emergncia;
- medidas destinadas a facilitar o transporte de recursos para intervenes de socorro;
- outras aces de apoio.
Por sua vez, o Instrumento Financeiro para a Proteco Civil, aprovado em 2007, a
expresso visvel da solidariedade europeia para com os pases afectados por emergncias
graves, e destina-se a apoiar e a complementar os esforos dos Estados-Membros no sentido
de proteger prioritariamente as pessoas, mas tambm o ambiente e os bens, incluindo o
patrimnio cultural, em caso de catstrofes naturais ou provocadas pelo homem, actos de
terrorismo e acidentes tecnolgicos, radiolgicos ou ambientais, promovendo uma cooperao
reforada entre eles
28
.
O Instrumento Financeiro, que no oramento da Unio Europeia para 2011 tem afectado um
montante de dezoito milhes e trezentos e cinquenta mil euros, apoia aces no domnio do
Mecanismo, medidas de preveno e reduo dos efeitos de uma emergncia, aces
destinadas a aumentar o grau de preparao da UE para uma resposta rpida e eficaz a
emergncias, aces de sensibilizao dos cidados, e ainda transportes em caso de
emergncia grave.
Por fim, um Fundo de Solidariedade da Unio Europeia29 completa o sistema de proteco
civil, concedendo um auxlio financeiro rpido em caso de catstrofes naturais de grandes
propores, para ajudar as populaes, as zonas naturais, as regies e os pases afectados, a
28
Artigo 1 n.1 da Deciso do Conselho que cria o Instrumento, em 5 de Maro de 2007.
29
Regulamento 2012/2002, de 11 de Novembro de 2002.
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292
repor a normalidade to rapidamente quanto possvel30. Diferentemente do Instrumento
Financeiro, o Fundo de Solidariedade s pode intervir em operaes de emergncia relativas
a catstrofes naturais de grandes dimenses, e no actua nas fases que precedem a
emergncia. Segundo o relatrio apresentado pela Comisso Europeia em 2009, os pedidos
apresentados pelos Estados tm decorrido de diferentes tipos de catstrofes naturais, tais como
tempestades, inundaes, sismos, erupes vulcnicas, incndios florestais ou perodos de
seca
31
.
9.2 As vulnerabilidades sociais e o novo paradigma de
proteco civil
Considerando a evoluo recente dos mecanismos de proteco civil na Unio Europeia, so
vrios os fundamentos que nos levam a afirmar a necessidade de concretizar uma mudana de
paradigma, fundando uma nova proteco civil, orientada tanto para a eficcia como para a
justia, e baseada num novo pressuposto: o conhecimento das vulnerabilidades sociais.
Sem preocupaes de exaustividade, vamos em seguida analisar cinco argumentos que
provam a necessidade de reorientar a proteco civil eficaz e justa para a identificao
das vulnerabilidades sociais, com vista ao desenvolvimento de capacidades de autoproteco
e ao reforo da resistncia e da resilincia
32
.
Argumento 1: se pretendemos um desenvolvimento harmonioso da Unio Europeia, a coeso
econmica, social e territorial so objectivos fundamentais. A proteco civil baseada no
conhecimento das vulnerabilidades sociais refora as diferentes dimenses da coeso
europeia.
Argumento 2: no Direito do Ambiente j existem regimes jurdicos de preveno de riscos em
que o nvel de proteco ambiental depende da fragilidade do bem jurdico protegido. Por
30
A pedido de um Estado-Membro ou de um pas cuja adeso Unio Europeia esteja em negociao, adiante
designado por Estado beneficirio, a interveno do Fundo pode ser desencadeada se ocorrer no territrio
desse Estado uma catstrofe natural de grandes propores com graves repercusses nas condies de vida dos
cidados, no meio natural ou na economia de uma ou mais regies ou de um ou mais Estados (Artigo 2. 1 do
Regulamento 2012/2002).
31
Anexos I e II do Relatrio anual da Comisso Europeia sobre o Fundo de Solidariedade da Unio Europeia
e relatrio sobre a experincia adquirida aps seis anos de aplicao do novo instrumento (COM(2009) 193
final), Bruxelas, 23 de Abril de 2009.
32
Sobre a promoo da resilincia perante os riscos naturais, ver o artigo de Jos Manuel Mendes e Alexandre
Tavares Building Resilience to Natural Hazards Practices and policies on governance and mitigation in the
central region of Portugal, in: Safety, Reliability and risk analyses: theory, methods and applications, Martorell
et all., Taylor Francis Group, London, 2009.
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293
maioria de razo, tambm na proteco civil, o nvel de exigncia na preveno de catstrofes
deve depender do grau de vulnerabilidade social.
Argumento 3: hoje em dia a previsibilidade e portanto a prevenibilidade dos riscos no
depende tanto da sua origem33 como dos alvos dos seus efeitos. Conhecer o tecido social,
identificar os factores de vulnerabilidade social e actuar ao nvel do reforo da resistncia e
resilincia , por isso, a melhor forma de reduzir os efeitos das catstrofes.
Argumento 4: a conscincia social dos riscos, aliada crescente intolerncia subjectiva ao
risco, torna cada vez mais importante o desenvolvimento de aces junto das populaes,
destinadas a reduzir as vulnerabilidades sociais e a fomentar a preparao
34
pelo
desenvolvimento da capacidade de adopo de medidas de autoproteco.
Argumento 5: a proteco civil um servio de interesse geral, sujeito ao princpio da
igualdade em sentido material. Por sua vez, uma proteco civil orientada por critrios de
igualdade material uma proteco civil mais justa e mais eficaz.
9.2.1 O reforo da coeso europeia atravs da proteco civil
Um dos objectivos fundamentais da Unio Europeia, cuja centralidade no sistema jurdico da
UE no tem parado de crescer, a coeso econmica, social e territorial e a solidariedade
entre os Estados-Membros
35
.
Ora, como a doutrina vem demonstrando, a poltica de proteco civil deve estar
particularmente atenta s desigualdades econmicas, sociais e territoriais pois, nas palavras de
Susan Cutter, os desastres so neutros em termos de rendimento, gnero ou cor. As suas
consequncias no.
36
Da defendermos que a proteco civil uma poltica fundamental para a promoo da coeso
europeia. Nas suas duas vertentes tradicionais econmica e social a coeso j era um
objectivo nuclear da Unio Europeia. Com o Tratado de Lisboa, surgiu uma nova dimenso: a
coeso territorial.
No Tratado sobre o Funcionamento da Unio Europeia, o Ttulo XVIII do que regula
a coeso econmica, social e territorial:
33
A origem natural ou antropognica no releva pois mesmo os riscos ditos naturais so cada vez mais
previsveis e h cada vez mais riscos naturais induzidos pelo Homem.
34
Equivalente expresso preparedness, em lngua inglesa.
35
Artigo 3, n.3 do Tratado da Unio Europeia.
36
Hazards, Vulnerability and Environmental Justice, Earthscan, 2006, p. xxvii.
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294
Artigo 174: A fim de promover um desenvolvimento harmonioso do conjunto da
Unio, esta desenvolver e prosseguir a sua aco no sentido de reforar a sua coeso
econmica, social e territorial.
Em especial, a Unio procurar reduzir a disparidade entre os nveis de
desenvolvimento das diversas regies e o atraso das regies menos favorecidas.
Entre as regies em causa, consagrada especial ateno s zonas rurais, s zonas
afectadas pela transio industrial e s regies com limitaes naturais ou
demogrficas graves e permanentes, tais como as regies mais setentrionais com
densidade populacional muito baixa e as regies insulares, transfronteirias e de
montanha.
Revelando a conscincia de que h desigualdades tanto na distribuio geogrfica, como nos
impactes sociais dos riscos, o Mecanismo por um lado, e o Instrumento Financeiro por outro,
tm em considerao as necessidades especficas de certas regies da Unio, consideradas
mais vulnerveis.
Como destaca o Conselho nas duas decises estruturantes da poltica europeia de proteco
civil, as regies mais vulnerveis so aquelas que pelo seu isolamento, insularidade, carcter
ultraperifrico, caractersticas geogrficas ou mesmo circunstncias sociais ou
econmicas
37
, podem ser especialmente afectadas em caso de emergncia ou podem revelar
especiais dificuldades na resposta a uma emergncia
38
.
Apelando solidariedade europeia, pede-se aos cidados, s populaes, s regies e aos
Estados mais desenvolvidos que auxiliem os menos favorecidos
39.
Ora esta solidariedade que
37
Tanto a Deciso que cria o Mecanismo (Deciso do Conselho, de 23 de Outubro de 2001), como a Deciso que
institui o Instrumento Financeiro para a Proteco Civil (Deciso do Conselho, de 5 de Maro de 2007),
referem que as regies isoladas e perifricas e determinadas outras regies ou ilhas da Comunidade apresentam
muitas vezes caractersticas e necessidades especiais em virtude da sua situao geogrfica, do tipo de terreno e
de circunstncias sociais e econmicas. Tais caractersticas so-lhes desfavorveis, impedem a utilizao dos
recursos de interveno e socorro, dificultando a prestao de auxlio e o fornecimento de meios de socorro, e
criam necessidades particulares de assistncia em situaes de risco elevado de emergncia grave (pargrafos
10 e 7 dos prembulos respectivos).
38
Segundo a Deciso que institui o Mecanismo, resposta qualquer aco realizada ao abrigo do Mecanismo,
durante ou aps uma emergncia grave, para fazer face s consequncias imediatas desta. Emergncia
qualquer situao que tenha ou possa ter um impacto adverso sobre as pessoas, o ambiente ou os bens (artigo
3 c) e a) da Deciso 2001/792, do Conselho de 23 de Outubro de 2001).
39
Encontramos vrias provas da existncia de um dever de solidariedade europeia:
- o prembulo do Tratado da Unio Europeia (desejando aprofundar a solidariedade entre os seus povos,
respeitando a sua histria, cultura e tradies ()),
- o artigo 2. do Tratado (a Unio funda-se nos valores do respeito pela dignidade humana, da liberdade, da
democracia, da igualdade, do Estado de direito e do respeito pelos direitos do Homem, incluindo os direitos das
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vigora na Europa no pode deixar de ser aplicada tambm proteco civil. A bem da coeso
europeia, o atraso econmico, a estrutura demogrfica desfavorvel, ou as limitaes naturais,
que constituem obstculos ao desenvolvimento harmonioso do conjunto da Unio devem
ser ultrapassadas, nomeadamente com a ajuda dos fundos com finalidade estrutural40 e de
apoios do Banco Europeu de Investimento.
Deste modo, o que se pretende um tratamento desigual das populaes e das regies
europeias que revelem maiores vulnerabilidades, no sentido de uma discriminao positiva.
Em suma, defende-se um tratamento mais favorvel das populaes e das regies mais
necessitadas de auxlio, em situaes de catstrofe.
Isto implica mudanas qualitativas que permitam a evoluo de uma proteco civil
tecnocrtica, centrada no clculo de riscos e de probabilidades, para uma proteco civil mais
humanizada, centrada na identificao e na reduo das vulnerabilidades e no reforo das
capacidades de resistncia e resilincia aps a catstrofe.
9.2.2 O dever geral de considerao das vulnerabilidades
Existem casos, nas leis ambientais em vigor, em que j obrigatria a considerao da
sensibilidade, fragilidade ou outras particularidades dos receptores ambientais, que os tornem
especialmente vulnerveis, como argumento a favor do reforo da efectividade da preveno e
proteco contra impactes ambientais antropognicos.
Esta uma razo que explica, a fortiori, que a fragilidade humana deva ser tida em
considerao na preveno de impactes ambientais e, por maioria de razo, no mbito da
poltica de proteco civil.
Vamos analisar quatro exemplos decorrentes do direito da conservao da natureza, da
avaliao de impactes, da preveno de acidentes industriais e da preveno de inundaes.
pessoas pertencentes a minorias. Estes valores so comuns aos Estados-Membros, numa sociedade caracterizada
pelo pluralismo, a no discriminao, a tolerncia, a justia, a solidariedade e a igualdade entre homens e
mulheres), e
- o Fundo de Solidariedade da Unio Europeia, institudo pelo Regulamento 2012/2002, de 11 de Novembro de
2002.
40 O Regulamento 1083/2006, de 11 de Julho de 2006, estabelece disposies gerais sobre o Fundo Europeu de
Desenvolvimento Regional, o Fundo Social Europeu e o Fundo de Coeso.
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A) Conservao da natureza
Segundo as directivas que regulam a conservao da natureza na Unio Europeia, a
importncia comunitria das espcies da fauna e da flora decorre da maior ou menor escassez
do nmero de indivduos da espcie, ou do seu carcter endmico41. Deste modo, existindo
indicadores de vulnerabilidade biolgica, ou dados que indiciem perigo para a conservao da
espcie, a necessidade de proteco conferida aos indivduos adquire um carcter de
premncia. Por isso, a realizao de planos ou projectos susceptveis de afectar negativamente
uma espcie que, pela sua importncia europeia, seja considerada como prioritria, depende
de estarem em causa valores to elevados como a sade do homem, a segurana pblica ou
consequncias benficas primordiais para o ambiente42. Ou seja: S em situaes muito
excepcionais, em que estejam em causa razes imperativas de reconhecido interesse pblico
que planos ou projectos susceptveis de afectar uma espcie prioritria, podem ser
autorizados.
Ora, se o conhecimento da espcie da fauna ou da flora selvagens, bem como do seu estado de
conservao, so cruciais para determinar o grau de proteco conferido aos valores naturais
em causa, por maioria de razo, o conhecimento dos tipos de vulnerabilidade social tambm
deve ser fundamental para garantir a efectividade da preveno de riscos no mbito das
polticas de proteco civil.
B) Avaliao de impactes ambientais
41 As espcies de interesse comunitrio, cuja proteco prioritria so as que i) esto em perigo, excepto as
espcies cuja rea de repartio natural se situa de forma marginal nesse territrio e que no esto em perigo nem
so vulnerveis na rea do palertico ocidental ou
ii) so vulnerveis, ou seja, cuja passagem categoria das espcies em perigo se considera provvel num futuro
prximo no caso de persistncia dos factores que so causa da ameaa ou
iii) so raras, ou seja, cujas populaes so de reduzida expresso e que, embora no estejam actualmente em
perigo ou no sejam vulnerveis, possam vir a s-lo. Estas espcies esto localizadas em reas geogrficas
restritas ou espalhadas numa superfcie mais ampla ou
iv) so endmicas e requerem ateno especial devido especificidade de seu habitat e/ou s incidncias
potenciais da sua explorao no seu estado de conservao. Artigo 1 g) da Directiva 92/43 (designada por
Directiva habitats), de 21 de Maio de 1992, relativa preservao dos habitats naturais e da fauna e da flora
selvagens, transposta para o ordenamento jurdico portugus pelo Decreto-Lei n. 49/2005 de 24 de Fevereiro).
42 Conforme o artigo 6, n.4 da Directiva habitats, outras razes imperativas de reconhecido interesse pblico
s podem ser consideradas com autorizao expressa da Comisso Europeia: Se, apesar de a avaliao das
incidncias sobre o stio ter levado a concluses negativas e na falta de solues alternativas, for necessrio
realizar um plano ou projecto por outras razes imperativas de reconhecido interesse pblico, incluindo as de
natureza social ou econmica, o Estado-membro tomar todas as medidas compensatrias necessrias para
assegurar a proteco da coerncia global da rede Natura 2000. O Estado-membro informar a Comisso das
medidas compensatrias adoptadas.
No caso de o stio em causa abrigar um tipo de habitat natural e/ou uma espcie prioritria, apenas podem ser
evocadas razes relacionadas com a sade do homem ou a segurana pblica ou com consequncias benficas
primordiais para o ambiente ou, aps parecer da Comisso, outras razes imperativas de reconhecido interesse
pblico.
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Mas, alm da fauna e da flora, existem outros regimes jurdicos que obrigam igualmente a
considerar a vulnerabilidade dos bens jurdicos afectados pelos riscos. Referimo-nos
avaliao de impacte ambiental
43
e avaliao estratgica
44
, que consideram a sensibilidade
das zonas geogrficas susceptveis de serem afectadas por um projecto, como critrio
relevante para a determinao do mbito de aplicao de ambos os procedimentos.
Com efeito, no caso da avaliao de impacte ambiental, no o anexo III da Directiva de 1985,
que contm os critrios de seleco dos projectos a sujeitar a avaliao de impacte ambiental,
que encontramos exemplos concretos de zonas consideradas como sensveis, por terem pouca
capacidade de absoro ou seja, baixa resilincia45.
Quanto avaliao estratgica, a vulnerabilidade das reas susceptveis de serem afectadas,
o critrio expressamente referido no anexo II da Directiva de 2001, como indicador de uma
maior probabilidade de efeitos significativos
46
.
43 Directiva 85/337, de 27 de Junho de 1985, relativa avaliao dos efeitos de determinados projectos
pblicos e privados no ambiente, alterada pelas Directivas 97/11, de 3 de Maro de 1997, 2003/35, de 26 de
Maio de 2003 e 2009/31, de 23 de Abril de 2009. Transposta para o ordenamento jurdico portugus pelo
Decreto-Lei n. 69/2000, de 3 de Maio, alterado pelo Decreto-Lei n. 197/2005, de 8 de Novembro.
44 Directiva 2001/42, de 27 de Junho de 2001, relativa avaliao dos efeitos de determinados planos e
programas no ambiente transposta pelo Decreto-Lei n. 232/2007, de 15 de Junho.
45 Anexo III, n 2 da Directiva 85/337, de 27 de Junho de 1985: Localizao dos projectos. Deve ser
considerada a sensibilidade ambiental das zonas geogrficas susceptveis de serem afectadas pelos projectos,
tendo nomeadamente em conta:
a afectao do uso do solo,
a riqueza relativa, a qualidade e a capacidade de regenerao dos recursos naturais da zona,
a capacidade de absoro do ambiente natural, com especial ateno para as seguintes zonas:
a) zonas hmidas,
b) zonas costeiras,
c) zonas montanhosas e florestais,
d) reservas e parques naturais,
e) zonas classificadas ou protegidas pela legislao dos Estados-membros; zonas de proteco especial
designadas pelos Estados-membros, nos termos das Directivas 79/409/CEE e 92/43/CEE,
f) zonas nas quais as normas de qualidade ambiental fixadas pela legislao comunitria j foram ultrapassadas,
g) zonas de forte densidade demogrfica,
h) paisagens importantes do ponto de vista histrico, cultural ou arqueolgico.
46 Anexo II n. 2. da Directiva 2001/42, de 27 de Junho de 2001: Caractersticas dos impactos e da rea
susceptvel de ser afectada tomando em conta, em especial:
a probabilidade, a durao, a frequncia e a reversibilidade dos efeitos,
a natureza cumulativa dos efeitos,
a natureza transfronteiria dos efeitos,
os riscos para a sade humana ou para o ambiente (por exemplo, devido a acidentes),
a dimenso e extenso espacial dos efeitos (rea geogrfica e dimenso da populao susceptvel de ser
afectada),
o valor e vulnerabilidade da rea susceptvel de ser afectada devido:
s caractersticas naturais especficas ou ao patrimnio cultural,
ultrapassagem das normas ou valores-limite em matria de qualidade ambiental,
utilizao intensiva do solo,
os efeitos sobre as reas ou paisagens com estatuto protegido a nvel nacional, comunitrio ou internacional.
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Ora, considerando que o Homem um factor a proteger, ou seja, tambm um receptor dos
impactes, a par da fauna, da flora, do solo, da gua, do ar, do clima, da paisagem, dos bens
materiais e do patrimnio cultural
47
, no vemos qualquer razo para que s sejam relevantes
a resilincia e a vulnerabilidade das espcies e dos espaos e no a vulnerabilidade humana.
C) Preveno de acidentes industriais graves
Tambm o sistema europeu de preveno de acidentes graves48 impe a adopo de cuidados
reforados para evitar os efeitos danosos de acidentes industriais envolvendo substncias
perigosas em certas zonas especialmente sensveis e carecidas de proteco. Embora no
sejam designadas expressamente como zonas vulnerveis, no deixa de ser evidente que esse
foi o critrio que presidiu seriao de zonas residenciais, zonas de utilizao pblica, zonas
naturais de interesse particular ou com caractersticas particularmente sensveis e vias de
comunicao49.
D) Preveno de inundaes
47 A considerao do Homem como um factor a proteger bem visvel em ambas as directivas, como decorre
do artigo 3 da Directiva sobre avaliao de impacte ambiental: A avaliao de impacte ambiental identificar,
descrever e avaliar de modo adequado, em funo de cada caso particular e nos termos dos artigos 4. a 11.,
os efeitos directos e indirectos de um projecto sobre os seguintes factores:
o homem, a fauna e a flora,
o solo, a gua, o ar, o clima e a paisagem,
os bens materiais e o patrimnio cultural,
a interaco entre os factores referidos nos primeiro, segundo e terceiro travesses.
Tambm do Anexo I da Directiva sobre avaliao estratgica resulta a mesma concluso: f) Os eventuais efeitos
significativos (1) no ambiente, incluindo questes como a biodiversidade, a populao, a sade humana, a fauna,
a flora, o solo, a gua, a atmosfera, os factores climticos, os bens materiais, o patrimnio cultural, incluindo o
patrimnio arquitectnico e arqueolgico, a paisagem e a inter-relao entre os factores supracitados.
48 Institudo pela Directiva 96/82, de 9 de Dezembro de 1996, relativa ao controlo dos perigos associados a
acidentes graves que envolvem substncias perigosas, alterada em 2003 pelo Regulamento 1882/2003, de 29 de
Setembro de 2003 e transposta pelo Decreto-Lei n. 254/2007, de 12 de Julho.
49 Trata-se do artigo 12, relativo ao controlo da urbanizao: 1. Os Estados-membros devem assegurar que os
objectivos de preveno de acidentes graves e de limitao das respectivas consequncias sejam tidos em conta
nas suas polticas de afectao ou utilizao dos solos e/ou noutras polticas pertinentes. Esses objectivos so
prosseguidos mediante um controlo:
a) Da implantao dos novos estabelecimentos;
b) Das alteraes dos estabelecimentos existentes referidas no artigo 10.o;
c) Do novo ordenamento da rea como vias de comunicao, locais frequentados pelo pblico, zonas
residenciais, nas imediaes de estabelecimentos existentes, sempre que o local de implantao ou o
ordenamento da rea sejam susceptveis de aumentar o risco de um acidente grave ou agravar as suas
consequncias.
Os Estados-membros devem assegurar que a sua poltica de afectao ou de utilizao dos solos e/ou outras
polticas pertinentes, bem como os procedimentos de execuo dessas polticas, tm em conta a necessidade, a
longo prazo, de manter distncias adequadas entre, por um lado, os estabelecimentos abrangidos pela presente
directiva e, por outro lado, as zonas residenciais, as zonas de utilizao pblica e as zonas naturais de interesse
particular ou com caractersticas particularmente sensveis, e para os estabelecimentos existentes, a necessidade
de medidas tcnicas complementares nos termos do artigo 5.o, a fim de no aumentarem os riscos para as
pessoas. (sublinhado nosso)
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Por fim, outro exemplo que mostra, de forma paradigmtica, a necessidade de considerar a
vulnerabilidade dos receptores ambientais como forma de reforar a eficcia dos mecanismos
de preveno de riscos, o regime jurdico da preveno e gesto dos riscos de inundao
50
.
Na transposio nacional, o legislador portugus optou por criar a figura dos edifcios
sensveis para dar concretizao ao dever de identificao dos bens econmicos em causa
51
,
consagrado na Directiva.
Deste modo, edifcios sensveis so os hospitais, lares de idosos, creches, infantrios, escolas,
edifcios de armazenamento ou processamento de substncias perigosas (volteis, inflamveis
ou explosivas, txicas ou reactivas em contacto com a gua), infra-estruturas de gesto de
efluentes e de armazenamento ou transformao de resduos, e edifcios com importncia na
gesto de emergncias, nomeadamente quartis de bombeiros, instalaes das foras de
segurana e das foras armadas, da Cruz Vermelha, comando nacional e comandos distritais
de operaes de socorro e servios municipais de proteco civil
52
.
Uma simples anlise da lista legal de edifcios sensveis revela que, subjacentes seleco do
legislador estiveram trs critrios distintos de sensibilidade:
a) uma sensibilidade humana, originada pela vulnerabilidade intrnseca dos ocupantes
do edifcio (doentes, idosos e crianas de diferentes faixas etrias);
b) uma sensibilidade ambiental, que resulta da potenciao dos riscos industriais por
efeito da prpria inundao (risco ambiental resultante do derrame ou fuga de substncias
perigosas, efluentes ou resduos);
c) uma sensibilidade estratgica que decorre da funo do edifcio para a gesto de
emergncias. A listagem, meramente exemplificativa, de edifcios estratgicos (quartis de
bombeiros, instalaes das foras de segurana e das foras armadas, da Cruz Vermelha,
comando nacional e comandos distritais de operaes de socorro e servios municipais de
proteco civil) permite-nos imaginar outros tipos de edifcios, com diferentes funes, mas
que possam desempenhar funes igualmente estratgicas aps a catstrofe. Pensamos, por
exemplo, em recintos desportivos cobertos ou amplos espaos de diverses que possam ser
utilizados para acolher os desalojados. Estratgicos e desempenhando um papel fundamental
na gesto de emergncias, podem ser ainda os bens pblicos em rede, tais como armazns
centrais de distribuio de alimentos e bens de primeira necessidade, depsitos e redes de
50 Directiva 2007/60, de 23 de Outubro de 2007.
51 Correspondente expresso francesa enjeux e inglesa stakes.
52 Artigo 2 a) do Decreto-Lei n. 115/2010, de 22 de Outubro, que transpe, para o ordenamento jurdico
portugus, a Directiva sobre preveno e gesto dos riscos de inundao.
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distribuio de gua, centros produtores, estaes transformadoras e redes de distribuio de
energia elctrica, redes rodovirias e ferrovirias principais, pontes, portos, aeroportos, rede
de emissores e retransmissores de telecomunicaes, etc.
Em suma, dos vrios exemplos analisados pensamos poder concluir que existe no
ordenamento jurdico portugus um dever geral de tomar em considerao a vulnerabilidade
dos receptores humanos indivduos ou comunidades em sede de proteco civil, dever
este que resulta de imposio europeia.
9.2.3 Riscos: do controlo da origem ao controlo dos efeitos
clssica a distino entre tipos de riscos quanto origem. Os riscos tecnolgicos seriam
aqueles cujas causas principais so actividades econmicas humanas. Acidentes ligados a
actividades industriais (incndios, exploses), extractivas (derrocadas) ou de transporte
(derrames), so os exemplos mais emblemticos de riscos antropognicos. Todos os restantes
seriam riscos naturais. Sismos, tsunamis, furaces, erupes vulcnicas, seriam riscos de
origem natural. As principais consequncias que se retiravam desta distino eram quanto
previsibilidade e prevenibilidade dos riscos. Os riscos antropognicos podiam e deviam ser
previstos e prevenidos, os riscos naturais no.
Porm, esta distino anteriormente to linear, tem vindo a diluir-se em virtude de vrios
factores:
a) o aperfeioamento das tcnicas de antecipao de riscos naturais que, mesmo no
tendo uma origem directamente humana, se tornam cada vez mais previsveis
53
,
b) o reconhecimento de que h riscos naturais induzidos por actividades humanas
54,
c) a verificao de que alguns riscos naturais podem criar ou potenciar acidentes
tecnolgicos
55
.
53 Caso da previso dos riscos ssmicos, de furaces ou de tsunamis, por exemplo.
54 Como por exemplo, o risco de inundao potenciado pela desflorestao e pela impermeabilizao.
55 Por exemplo, um furaco pode originar a exploso de uma indstria qumica, um terramoto pode provocar
uma ruptura num oleoduto, uma inundao pode provocar a fuga de produtos perigosos armazenados etc. Este
ltimo precisamente o caso previsto no artigo 6 n.5 da Directiva 2007/60, de 23 de Outubro de 2007, relativa
avaliao e gesto dos riscos de inundaes: 5. As cartas de riscos de inundaes devem indicar as potenciais
consequncias prejudiciais associadas s inundaes nos cenrios referidos no n. 3, expressos em termos de:
a) Nmero indicativo de habitantes potencialmente afectados;
b) Tipo de actividade econmica da zona potencialmente afectada;
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Este facto explica que as atenes deixem de centrar-se na origem dos riscos e se virem agora
mais para os efeitos dos riscos.
Assim, as melhores prticas da cincia de preveno de riscos parecem impor agora a gesto,
no s das fontes dos riscos, mas tambm do alvo dos efeitos danosos, resultantes da
concretizao do risco. E os alvos so as populaes, os bens e os elementos naturais expostos
aos riscos.
Da a vulnerabilidade social ser um conceito fundamental na preveno e gesto de riscos,
quando se reconhece que existe uma proximidade existencial entre alguns riscos (sejam
naturais sejam tecnolgicos) e algumas populaes vulnerveis. Os dados sociolgicos
relativos aos danos materiais e humanos resultantes de catstrofes revelam que, em geral,
perante qualquer risco (incndio, exploso, inundao, onda de frio ou de calor), so as
populaes mais frgeis que primeiro e mais profundamente so afectados pelos riscos j que
no tm meios de defesa ou proteco pessoal para evitar os efeitos: no tm meios de
comunicao para receber os alertas, no tm meios de locomoo ou transporte prprios,
para fugir do local, no tm meios de aquecimento nem de arrefecimento, etc. Por outro lado,
essas mesmas populaes vulnerveis so as que tm maior dificuldade em superar os efeitos
do acidente e recuperar o equilbrio de vida perdido: no tm seguros, no tm poupanas, no
tm segundas habitaes, no tm conhecimentos que lhes permitam recorrer a sistemas de
solidariedade social, tudo meios que lhes facilitam a recuperao aps o acidente.
Porm, importante frisar que no h uma vulnerabilidade social mas vulnerabilidades
sociais vrias e frequentemente cumulativas.
As vulnerabilidades sociais que estamos aqui a considerar so: vulnerabilidades etrias
(pessoas idosas ou crianas muito novas), vulnerabilidades sociais stricto sensu (pessoas ss,
sem famlia nem redes sociais ou, no outro extremo, famlias muito numerosas),
vulnerabilidades econmicas (desempregados, pessoas com rendimentos muito baixos e que
no tenham meios sucedneos de sobrevivncia como meios de transporte prprio, segunda
habitao, seguros, ou acesso a recursos agropecurios), vulnerabilidades pessoais (pessoas
doentes, deficientes), vulnerabilidades culturais (analfabetos, pessoas com escolaridade baixa,
minorias lingusticas, infoexcluidos) e vulnerabilidades resultantes de excluso social
(imigrantes, minorias raciais ou tnicas).
c) Instalaes, referidas no anexo I da Directiva 96/61/CE do Conselho, de 24 de Setembro de 1996, relativa
preveno e controlo integrados da poluio, que possam causar poluio acidental em caso de inundaes, e
zonas protegidas identificadas nos pontos i), iii) e v) da seco 1 do anexo IV da Directiva 2000/60/CE.
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Infelizmente, um fenmeno frequente nas sociedades modernas, ocorrncia simultnea de
vrios factores de vulnerabilidade que convergem na mesma pessoa, na mesma famlia, ou na
mesma comunidade. Trata-se da multivulnerabilidade, bem expressa no adgio popular uma
desgraa nunca vem s e que d origem a fenmenos de fragilidade to elevada que podemos
classific-la como inferioridade social. Por exemplo: estar ao mesmo tempo doente, sem
emprego, sem abrigo e divorciado, so simultaneamente causas e consequncias da condio
de fragilidade. E que uma catstrofe se abata sobre as pessoas que se encontram em situao
de inferioridade social no uma surpresa: ondas de frio ou de calor afectam mais quem no
tem habitao; inundaes afectam mais quem reside numa habitao ilegal, construda em
leito de cheia; um tornado afecta mais quem ocupa habitaes precrias; o desemprego aps
um acidente industrial afecta mais quem no tem habilitaes acadmicas nem formao
profissional especializada, etc..
Perante o reconhecimento da indesejvel proximidade intrnseca entre riscos e vulnerabilidade
social, h razes fortes para que as polticas de proteco civil evoluam, no s pelo controlo
a montante, ou seja, na fonte dos riscos, mas, como j dissemos, em funo da identificao e
avaliao dos factores de vulnerabilidade, de forma a desenvolver mecanismos preventivos
que passem cada vez mais pelo reforo da resistncia e resilincia.
No se interprete esta ideia como uma proposta de substituio de uma poltica preventiva por
uma poltica reactiva face aos riscos. O que se prope que as medidas preventivas deixem
de se concentrar exclusivamente na origem do risco (o controlo das instalaes, actividades
ou localizaes potencialmente perigosas) e passem a considerar igualmente a necessidade de
conhecimento e avaliao das vulnerabilidades sociais. So elas que podem fazer com que um
simples incidente industrial ou a ocorrncia de um fenmeno natural no passem de um mero
acidente ou se transformem numa verdadeira catstrofe.
O que as novas tendncias parecem revelar que a passagem de uma proteco civil orientada
para a origem do risco uma proteco civil tecnicista para uma proteco civil orientada
para os bens jurdicos protegidos uma proteco civil humanizada tem vantagens quanto
aos resultados alcanados, tanto em termos de eficincia como em termos de justia. Esta
apenas uma das razes que explicam o dever de evoluir para um novo paradigma de proteco
civil, mais realista e socialmente comprometida.
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9.2.4 A crescente intolerncia social ao risco
A indistino entre riscos naturais e riscos antropognicos conduz a uma crescente
intolerncia social, perante fenmenos que antigamente eram vistos como castigos divinos ou
como manifestaes incontrolveis da natureza, e que agora so reconhecidos como efeitos
retardados e indirectos das interferncias humanas com o clima ou os ecossistemas.
Juridicamente, estes dois fenmenos convergem na exigncia de novos paradigmas de
segurana, personificados nos princpios da precauo e da preveno consagrados tambm
na lei de bases da proteco civil
56
e exigem a adopo de medidas proporcionais aos
riscos, mesmo em situaes de incerteza.
Ora h riscos que, apesar de serem relativamente previsveis, so dificilmente evitveis.
Prever um risco saber antecipadamente quando, onde e como ele vai acontecer. Porm, nem
o conhecimento do momento, nem do local da ocorrncia, nem da magnitude, so exactos,
mas apenas aproximaes estatsticas ou probabilsticas, baseadas em dados passados ou em
indcios actuais. Naturalmente, a seriedade das medidas de preveno do risco deve ser
proporcional probabilidade de ocorrncia e gravidade do risco, pelo que uma
probabilidade muito elevada de ocorrncia, durante um perodo de tempo limitado, de uma
catstrofe com fortes incidncias territoriais, justifica medidas to complexas como por
exemplo a deslocao de toda uma comunidade para um local seguro
57
. Probabilidades mais
baixas, de danos menos graves, ou envolvendo riscos difusos e sem incidncia territorial,
justificaro apenas medidas de mitigao, menos eficazes mas tambm menos onerosas.
Nestes casos, o conhecimento das vulnerabilidades e as actuaes para a sua minimizao so
as formas mais eficazes de intervir na preveno de riscos difusos, de gravidade intermdia ou
pouco provveis.
A capacitao dos cidados mais vulnerveis para a auto-proteco, um dos corolrios da
importncia do conhecimento das vulnerabilidades sociais. Desenvolver a conscincia cvica,
difundindo tcnicas de proteco civil a forma de preveno mais adequada e mais eficaz de
agir sobre as populaes mais frgeis, sobretudo quando no seja possvel actuar a montante,
na preveno das fontes do risco. Assim se criam, na sociedade civil, capacidades de
resistncia onde elas no existiam, inflectindo a tendncia para a passividade e a inrcia,
56 Artigo 5 da Lei n. 27/2006, de 3 de Julho.
57 o caso da cidade sueca de Kiruna que, em virtude do rico de cedncia de terrenos devido ao gradual
alargamento da mina de ferro, vai ser deslocada para sul, com os seus 22000 habitantes a serem realojados nos
mesmos edifcios, desmontados e reconstrudos num local seguro, a este da actual localizao. Este um
processo complexo e moroso que comeou em 2006 e que se prev que esteja concludo em 2015
(http://www.kommun.kiruna.se).
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resultantes da delegao no Estado de todas as responsabilidade relativas proteco civil.
Esta atitude de passividade, de desresponsabilizao dos cidados em relao sua prpria
proteco, e de delegao de responsabilidades no Estado, perceptvel em algumas das
respostas ao Inqurito Percepo aos Riscos Naturais e Tecnolgicos, aplicado no mbito do
Projecto Risco, Vulnerabilidade Social e Estratgias de Planeamento Uma Abordagem
Integrada: 48,8% dos inquiridos esperam que seja o Estado a adoptar medidas preventivas em
matria de proteco civil mesmo que isso implique aumento de impostos.
9.3 Um servio de interesse geral sujeito ao princpio da
igualdade para uma proteco civil eficaz e justa
A proteco civil um servio pblico (ou um servio de interesse geral, na terminologia
europeia) que visa satisfazer necessidades colectivas e que se espera que seja o Estado a
desempenhar, respeitando os princpios da universalidade e da igualdade: ningum pode ser
excludo e ningum pode ser discriminado na prestao do servio pblico de proteco civil.
Mas, a igualdade que preside prestao do servio pblico de proteco civil, no um
igualitarismo em que todos, independentemente das necessidades (individuais ou colectivas),
sejam tratados de modo formalmente igual.
Cada vez mais relevante no Direito Europeu, a igualdade material
58
no s legitima, como
exige, tratamentos diferenciados. E s a discriminao positiva garante a igualdade material
dos cidados, pretendida pelo Tratado da Unio Europeia
59.
Por isso, no se trata s de combater todas as formas de discriminao inadmissvel (como a
racial, religiosa, de gnero, etc.
60
) mas tambm de promover um tratamento activamente
integrador, que atenda s diferenas relevantes. Como j vimos, estas dependem tanto das
condies individuais de vulnerabilidade como da resistncia e resilincia em relao a
catstrofes.
58 Sobre a igualdade material nos servios pblicos na Unio Europeia, ver O nome das coisas : servio
pblico, servios de interesse econmico geral e servio universal no direito comunitrio, in: Temas de
integrao, n 15-16, 2003.
59 Anteriormente ao Tratado de Lisboa as referncias igualdade que encontrvamos nos Tratados europeus
limitavam-se igualdade entre homens e mulheres (artigo 2; 3 n.2; 137 n.1 i) e 141).
60 Artigo 10. do Tratado da Unio Europeia, aps as alteraes introduzidas pelo Tratado de Lisboa: Na
definio e execuo das suas polticas e aces, a Unio tem por objectivo combater a discriminao em razo
do sexo, raa ou origem tnica, religio ou crena, deficincia, idade ou orientao sexual.
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Por isso, se queremos uma proteco civil eficaz e justa, e simultaneamente uma boa gesto
colectiva dos recursos afectado poltica de proteco civil, devemos considerar no s a
capacidade pblica, mas tambm as capacidades privadas existentes. Por outro lado, devemos
conhecer e no s as necessidades individuais de proteco, mas tambm as capacidades
(individuais ou colectivas) de auto-proteco e a resilincia de indivduos ou grupos
61
.
Deste modo, a proteco mais justa
62
, porque se dirige essencialmente aos mais carenciados,
aos que no tm capacidade de adoptar medidas de autoproteco ou de recuperar aps a
crise.
Mas, por outro lado, conceber as polticas de proteco civil de modo a proteger quem mais
precisa (tanto no momento da crise como no perodo de recobro) alm de mais justo, mais
eficaz63, porque embora o valor da vida humana seja absoluto, proteger melhor os mais
vulnerveis permite maximizar as capacidades existentes na sociedade, sem duplicar esforos
e obtendo melhores resultados em termos de eficcia na evitao de danos
64
.
Em suma, a vantagem da identificao das vulnerabilidades criar sinergias entre a proteco
civil e as polticas sociais, estabelecendo novas prioridades de interveno e reorientando a
proteco civil em funo de uma escala de valores.
9.4 Concluso: rumo a uma proteco civil estratgica e
sustentvel
Como nos esformos por provar, a identificao das vulnerabilidades sociais traduz-se em
melhores resultados de proteco civil, com a vantagem, para os poderes pblicos, da
legitimao pelo xito
65
.
61 Mesmo o Protocolo n 26, anexo ao Tratado de Lisboa, versando expressamente servios de interesse geral, se
reala o papel essencial e o amplo poder de apreciao das autoridades nacionais, regionais e locais para
prestar, mandar executar e organizar servios de interesse econmico geral de uma forma que atenda tanto
quanto possvel s necessidades dos utilizadores (sublinhado nosso).
62 De resto, a justia um dos valores fundamentais em que assenta a Unio Europeia, nos termos do artigo 2
do Tratado da Unio Europeia: A Unio funda-se nos valores do respeito pela dignidade humana, da liberdade,
da democracia, da igualdade, do Estado de direito e do respeito pelos direitos do Homem, incluindo os direitos
das pessoas pertencentes a minorias. Estes valores so comuns aos Estados-Membros, numa sociedade
caracterizada pelo pluralismo, a no discriminao, a tolerncia, a justia, a solidariedade e a igualdade entre
homens e mulheres (sublinhado nosso).
63 Reforar a eficcia dos sistemas de preveno das catstrofes naturais ou de origem humana um dos fins
da proteco civil na Europa.
64 O j referido Protocolo n 26, anexo ao Tratado de Lisboa, relativo aos servios de interesse geral, refere
mesmo a necessidade de promover um nvel elevado de qualidade dos servios de interesse geral, de que a
proteco civil um exemplo (artigo 1, 3: um elevado nvel de qualidade, de segurana e de acessibilidade de
preos, a igualdade de tratamento e a promoo do acesso universal e dos direitos dos utilizadores).
65 Paulo Otero, Legalidade e Administrao Pblica. O Sentido da Vinculao Administrativa J uridicidade
Almedina, Coimbra, 2007, p. 31.
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No fundo, o conhecimento das vulnerabilidades permite legitimar estratgias de proteco
civil, racionalizar os recursos, hierarquizar objectivos e fundamentar prioridades.
Aps a identificao das vulnerabilidades, toda a informao deve ser vertida nos
instrumentos jurdicos adequados e, nomeadamente, em instrumentos estratgicos, como
planos, com ou sem incidncia territorial.
No caso daqueles riscos que tenham dimenses territoriais, os planos adequados sero planos
de ordenamento territorial
66
. Para este efeito, consideramos riscos com dimenses territoriais:
a) Aqueles cuja origem geograficamente identificvel (erupes de vulces activos,
risco de tsunami em zonas costeiras),
b) Aqueles cujos efeitos tm uma incidncia geogrfica delimitvel (como as inundaes
nos leitos de cheia dos rios e as derrocadas em zonas declivosas), e
c) Aqueles que, mesmo sendo riscos difusos (quanto origem e quanto aos efeitos),
exigem estratgias de mitigao que envolvem opes de interveno geograficamente
delimitadas (por exemplo, construo de abrigos para proteco em relao a riscos
meteorolgicos como ondas de frio ou de calor, tufes, etc., regulamentao estrita das
autorizaes de edificao e das regras de construo civil ao longo de falhas ssmicas ou em
zonas uranferas).
Em concluso, uma poltica de proteco civil sustentvel aquela que orientada por
objectivos claros, e definidos a longo prazo, com base em critrios coerentes e sindicveis,
mobilizando os meios necessrios, adequados e proporcionais, traduzindo-se em intervenes
no terreno eficazes, economicamente eficientes, comunitariamente aceitveis, socialmente
justas, e, claro ambientalmente mais compatveis
67
.
66 Definindo o contedo material dos planos regionais de ordenamento do territrio, a lei que estabelece o
regime jurdico dos instrumentos de gesto territorial prev j a identificao de directrizes relativas aos
regimes territoriais definidos ao abrigo de lei especial, designadamente reas de reserva agrcola, domnio
hdrico, reserva ecolgica e zonas de risco (artigo 53 e) do Decreto-Lei n. 46/2009 de 20 de Fevereiro, que
altera pela sexta vez e republica o Decreto -Lei n. 380/99, de 22 de Setembro).
67 Por exemplo, prevenindo o risco de inundao sem artificializar o rio pela construo de diques, paredes,
etc., lutando contra os incndios florestais sem desflorestao, etc..
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Captulo 10 . Models of Social Vulnerability to Disasters -
David Alexander
10.1 Introduction
For many years there has been an imbalance between the resources invested in disaster
response and those dedicated to the prevention and mitigation of disasters. The world
community and most individual countries have preferred to tackle the problem by responding
to adverse events rather than anticipating them. There are several reasons why this position
has become harder and harder to maintain. To begin with, knowledge of hazards is now
substantial at the world scale and increasingly so at the local scale in many parts of the world
(Mercer et al. 2010). Hence, a plea of ignorance no longer carries weight. Secondly, the
number of people affected by disaster, about 280 million in 2010, is expected to rise to 375
million in 2015 (IFRCRCS 2010). Thirdly, climate change will probably intensify
meteorological disasters such as floods and storms (Birkmann and von Teichman 2010).
There are non-linear relationships between physical factors, such as average wind speed or
flooding level, and damage such that the latter becomes disproportionally large in relation to
increases in the former. Finally, in political and diplomatic circles, there has been a gradual
realisation that the benefit-cost ratios for vulnerability reduction are so high that reducing
disaster risk makes sound economic sense. The UN's International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (UNISDR) and its Hyogo Framework for Action, 2005-2015, have been critical to
this process (UNISDR 2005). Hence, the problem of disasters has become difficult for
governments to ignore.
As a result of these factors, the early years of the new millennium are a period of
intense change in the ways in which humanity understands, interprets and lives with disaster.
Since 1970 there has been an increasing divergence in the process of wealth accumulation
between the minority of rich people and the majority of the poor (Massey 1996). Although
poverty and vulnerability to disasters are not perfectly synonymous, they are nearly so, and
conversely, wealth can be equated with protection and safety. This simple balance, however,
does not reduce the potential for massive financial losses in areas where both hazards and
physical capital are heavily concentrated.
Broadly speaking, vulnerability is the potential for harm or loss inherent in a person or
thing (Weichselgartner 2001). The word has specific meanings in particular disciplines, for
example social work and psychology (Furedi 2004). In disaster studies, it is the key to
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understanding impacts (Birkmann 2006). Since the late 1970s there has been a gradual
realisation that natural, technological, social and intentional (i.e. terrorism) hazards are merely
the trigger of a set of complex reactions governed by the social, economic, cultural and
physical vulnerability of society (Hewitt 1983). Hence, there has been an increasing
realisation that it is important to know and reduce human vulnerability to disasters in its many
different forms.
As a prelude to proposing new models of disasters and their abatement and
management, the next section discusses the bases of theory in this field.
10.2 Basic Models of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
The word 'resilience' or 'resiliency' is sometimes thought to be derived from ecological studies
of the survival of species (Adger 2000), but in reality it has its origins about a century ago in
the mechanics of materials testing. A resilient material has an optimum combination of
rigidity, which enables it to resist an applied force, and flexibility, which enables it to absorb
that which it cannot resist. Its breaking point occurs at a very high level of applied force
(Avallone et al. 2007). By analogy, society needs to develop the capacity to resist and absorb
(i.e. adapt to) the forces that cause disaster. Societal resilience involves the setting aside of
resources against future contingencies, and the process of preparing to withstand future
shocks (Manyena 2006). At the root of it are prudence and foresight.
Caveat lector: there is an alternative to the conceptual equation that is so often
employed to explain disaster risk (Alexander 1991):-
hazard vulnerability [ exposure ] = risk disaster
The world has accumulated a vast store of both material wealth and knowledge, but it has not
established priorities that enable it to reduce disaster risk sufficiently to avoid massive and
widespread suffering and misery. Given the propensity to spend, some would say squander,
vast sums on largely unproductive enterprises (for example three trillion US dollars on the
war in Iraq), one might be tempted to rewrite the equation as:-
hazard waste [ exposure ] = risk disaster
Be that as it may, disaster risk reduction should involve investigating the hazards,
protecting local populations, planning and preparedness to use resources wisely, hazard
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avoidance (where possible) and incident management. The key resources are knowledge,
organisation and communication (Fothergill 2000). None of these is necessarily expensive.
The relative cost of information technology is falling, and mechanisms for sharing and
diffusing knowledge are multiplying.
Knowledge can be divided into three sectors: on hazard impacts, on community
vulnerability, and on the coping mechanisms that produce resilience. It is necessary to avoid
the tendency to relate the knowledge merely to past disasters, rather than to future ones.
Scenarios are vital to understanding those hazards that can in any way be anticipated,
especially the recurrent and seasonal ones, but a scenario is not a projection of the past into
the future, rather it is an investigation of possible future outcomes with the aid of information
gained from past events (Schoemaker 1993). Changing vulnerabilities, emerging risks and
intensifying hazards all conspire to ensure that disasters do not repeat themselves, even
though they may have a degree of predictability.
Disaster risk reduction is therefore a question of organisation and resources. The
former can be divided into imposed organisation and self-organisation. Of these, the first is
mandated by authority and comes from outside the community. It includes laws, protocols,
directives and standards. The second involves indigenous coping mechanisms that the
community develops for itself, including local planning and volunteer work (Mercer et al.
2010). Likewise, resources can be divided into those pertaining to the community and those
provided from outside the area, in some cases at the scale of international disaster relief and
assistance for risk reduction. Long experience has shown that there is an uneasy dialectic
between indigenous and imposed disaster risk reduction (Mercer et al. 2007). In ideal
circumstances, the best of local practice is complemented and reinforced by appropriate
methodology derived from outside the area (Briggs, J. 2007). Such a balance is not easy to
achieve, and it requires a mixture of cultural sensitivity, political equilibrium and plain
common sense, as well as the technical know-how and social consensus to reduce disasters.
Despite a need that stretches back through all of human history, in its modern form
disaster risk reduction is a child of the 2000s (Alexander 2008). It intertwines with the
resilience and climate change adaptation agendas. It also responds to the imperative of
sustainability. The world is consuming at least 50 per cent more resources than it can produce
or find, and, moreover, it will have to adapt to warmer conditions and rising sea levels, as well
as potentially more extreme natural phenomena that cause disasters (UNISDR 2009). These
are some of the motives for advocating a sustainable response.
Disasters can set back development. For instance, in Nicaragua it was estimated that
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Hurricane Mitch in 1998 did enough damage to retard development by 20 years (Wisner
2001). Hence, disaster risk reduction is part of the sustainable development agenda. However,
sustainability is a controversial issue and there is no single definition of what is sustainable.
There is, however, a consensus that sustainability requires a degree of harmony between
humans and nature, and some level of conservation of the natural resource base (Saunier
1999). Disaster risk reduction can contribute to the processes involved. In addition, there are
questions of sustainability with regard to DRR in its own right. Programmes have failed
because of lack of consistent funding, unclear or inappropriate objectives and lack of political
or social support. In synthesis, sustainable programmes of disaster risk reduction are built
upon governance, defined here as a participatory form of democracy in which institutions
have public support and stakeholders are empowered such as to have direct involvement in
decision making. Governance is at the root of vulnerability reduction, disaster preparedness
and the development of coping mechanisms (Ammann 2006).
These observations constitute a simple framework for analysing human responses to
the threat and impact of disasters. However, there is a need for new theory. Much of the
existing body of theory stems from the ideas of cultural ecology, or human ecology,
promulgated in the 1920s and developed most fully in the 1960s (White 1974). Since then
there have been momentous changes in society, economy and the environment of life.
Moreover, the accelerating pace of global change shifts the parameters of theory yet more.
For example, the information technology revolution has been compared to the effect of the
invention of printing (Quarantelli 1997). It has had a profound impact on many different
forms of human activity and social relations. If we are to understand disasters in the 21st
century, it will be necessary to look for new sources of explanation, new models that are
capable of unravelling the complexity of a rapidly changing milieu. The theory developed in
the 1960s and 1970s is no longer able to do that.
10.3 Towards a New Theoretical Basis for Disaster Studies
The modern world is characterised by increasing imbalances in access to wealth and
resources, in safety and in opportunities for betterment (Massey 1996). Misuse of resources
and excessive emphasis on economic development without taking into account the full costs
may exacerbate these disequilibria. New theory needs to be able to describe and interpret this
situation, as well as respond to the profound changes in global interconnectedness that are
occurring.
Human ecology posits a relationship between people and their environment in which
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technology can overcome some of the difficulties, but nature is not easily dominated and
hence there must be adaptation to extremes (White 1974). In the original work, the model is
based on the work of Herbert Simon on the rational man who makes economic decisions as an
optimiser, by maximising opportunities to gather information, or a satisficer, by choosing
rationally from a limited range of options (Simon 1956). Evidently, this model allows no
room for cultural or ideological variations and only the most limited opportunity for
perception to govern choice. In reality, there is a constant dialectic between factors that
increase risk (for example, stronger hurricanes, building new settlement in vulnerable areas,
water management that increases downstream flood risk) and those that diminish it, the
actions of disaster risk mitigation. The dialectic is further modified by risk perception, which
can either increase or decrease vulnerability, depending on its level of salience and accuracy.
Hence, in schematic terms:-
Total vulnerability to disasters =
Risk amplification processes
Risk mitigation processes
Risk perception factors
In disaster risk reduction, decisions, actions and results all depend on a complex interaction
between perception and culture.
10.3.1 The Importance of Culture and Symbolism in Disaster Risk
Reduction
Remarkably few academic studies of disaster tackle the problem of culture (Gheradi 1998).
The term can be defined as an assemblage of shared beliefs, opinions, social characteristics
and attitudes. Culture is extremely difficult to measure in any social scientific way (Brislin
1980). One reason is that it is an elusive and multi-faceted concept, one that changes with
social context. Another is that culture is, like Chinese boxes or Russian dolls, a set of nested
phenomena: we respond to different cultures related to national, regional and local settings;
peer groups, families and workplaces; ethnic and social groups; gender and race; and interest
groups. A third reason is that culture undergoes a constant process of metamorphosis as it
adapts to the changing circumstances of the modern world and how we are able to interpret it.
As a result, there are very few reliable measures of culture. It is nonetheless highly important.
If one wants to promote change, success is more likely if it is compatible with the prevailing
culture, while if it runs against the culture, the adaptive process is likely to be blocked for
apparently illogical reasons.
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Each of us inherits a cultural background that is more or less evident depending on the
strength of ties to particular places and social groups. We spend our lives accumulating
cultural characteristics by processes of learning and assimilation. These are the emic
components of culturethose that are specific to a particular cultural context. The etic aspects
are related to universal traits and are the source of much cultural metamorphosis. In the
present age they are mostly the result of the diffusion of mass culture and the technology that
propagates it. Hence, modernism fuses with ancient cultural traditions: symbiotically, the
former is interpreted in the light of the latter (Figure 1).
Figure 1. The architecture and metamorphosis of human culture.
Culture is important to any understanding of the significance and role of disaster in the
modern world because it determines how perception is interpreted, and, indeed, may even
determine what is perceived. Thus we understand disaster through a perceptual and cultural
filter that has many levels, from individual, through family, peer group, organisation,
community, region and nation, right up to the international, etic forms of popular culture. By
way of example, community-based forms of disaster reduction should take account of the
ways in which people in the community associated with each other, including forms of
meeting and debate (the socialisation of the problem) and community power structures and
sources of authority. All of these elements are to some extent culturally determined.
In this context, students of disaster have largely ignored the role of symbols and
symbolism. Yet they have been important throughout history and are no less relevant today,
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albeit in a radically different context (Alexander 2004). Once upon a time the appearance of a
comet in the sky might have been interpreted as a portent of doom and destruction. Nowadays
symbols are the simplest form of model of a reality that is increasingly complex as more and
more information becomes available. Symbols and symbolism are a natural response to the
domination of communication by electronic representations of reality, many of which are
severely reductive.
One effect of the information technology revolution has been to change the symbolic
interpretation of disaster. Sixty years ago to be involved in disaster was, in many cultures, to
be subject to a form of disgrace that could hardly be talked about. Nowadays such
involvement has been radically transformed by mass media attention. To be a victim of
disaster may even be a route to celebrity. This has to do with the interpretation of disaster--
symbolically--as a form of moral outrage (Horlick-Jones 1995) in which the victim gains the
weight of moral authority simply by being involved. However, for this to be true, much
depends on the "story value" (i.e. singularity, novelty, human interest, etc.) that the mass
media can attribute to the situation and its protagonists.
It may be true that the key to interpreting disasters is to be found in the works of Carl
Gustav Jung (man and his symbols - Jung 1964), Roland Barthes (semiotics and myth -
Barthes 2009), Umberto Eco (semiotics and popular culture - Eco 1978) and Zigmunt
Bauman ('liquid modernity' - Bauman 2001). All three branches of semiotics could be
involved in this process. First, semantics, the relationship between signs and the denotata, the
things which they endow with meaning, can help us understand the gap between how people
perceive hazard, risk and disaster and how these phenomena are in scientific terms. In
previous works I listed up to 47 common misconceptions about disaster and analysed how
some of these influence the judgement of people involved in managing emergencies.
Secondly, syntactics, the relationships among signs in formal structures, can help us
understand how the representation of disasters is codified by the groups and cultures involved.
This is the shorthand interpretation of risk and impact for the purposes of rapid reaction, the
language of response to hazard. Thirdly and finally, pragmatics, the relationships between
signs and their effect on people who use them, can help us understand the feedback between
the symbolic representations of disastrous phenomena, risks and extreme events and the
meanings that both result from and generate these models.
A word of warning must be issued about the concepts of vulnerability and risk. They
are akin to friction, a quality that does not exist until it is mobilised. Students of disaster will
have noted that the 'hard' science interpretation of risk is fundamentally different from the
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social science interpretation (Slovic and Gregory 1999). Engineering risk usually involves
calculating the probability of failure of a built structure under specific conditions of loading.
Social science risk brings into play factors such as perception that cannot easily be quantified,
or when quantification is attempted the result is less than satisfying (Purchase and Slovic
1999). Thus risk and its dominant component vulnerability are in essence hypothetical
concepts. Paradoxically they are no less real for being hypothetical. However, once they are
mobilised they are instantly transformed into impact. It is thus hardly surprising that risk and
vulnerability remain elusive--though not illusive--concepts that defy holistic measurement or
assessment. To understand either we must descend to the level of partial estimation, using a
set of qualifying conditions, for example, risk over defined time periods and with respect to
one sector, such as economic activity, or infection and disease.
Unfortunately, many of the ideas expressed above are only half formed. Their full
development requires considerably greater and more penetrating observation over longer
periods of time. In addition, such periods will inevitably be characterised by rapid and
profound changes in society and the environment of life. Nevertheless, it is possible to make a
start on interpreting current reality using new models. The next section will present a short
example.
10.4 Interpretations of the L'Aquila (Central Italy) Earthquake
of 6 April 2009
At 03:32 hrs local time on Monday 6 April 2009 an earthquake of magnitude M
w
=6.3,
duration 25 seconds and mean peak acceleration 0.3g occurred with epicentre 3.4 km from the
centre of L'Aquila, a city of 72,800 inhabitants located in the Apennine mountains of central
Italy in Abruzzo Region. In total, 308 people were killed, 1500 were injured, 202 of them
seriously, 67,000 people were left homeless and about 100,000 buildings were seriously
damaged. The earthquake formed part of a swarm of tremors that began in October 2008 and
did not attenuate until the following summer. L'Aquila had been struck by a devastating
seismic event in 1703 with 6,000-10,000 deaths, but the last major earthquake in Abruzzo
happened at Avezzano, about 100 km southeast of L'Aquila in 1915. It killed 32,000 people,
including 94 per cent of the population of Avezzano. The death toll in 2009 could have been
much higher had the earthquake not occurred during a long weekend when many people were
away from the area.
The L'Aquila earthquake was a moderate physical event but, due to high levels of
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seismic vulnerability, it had a disproportionately large impact on the population of the area
affected, with 16 municipalities severely damaged and up to 98 affected, 49 of them seriously.
The disaster was thus a significant test of the Italian national civil protection system, which
responded with a major and sustained mobilisation of national resources. Given the risk of
structural collapse among buildings weakened by the earthquake, L'Aquila city and several
local towns were put off limits to the general population, the first time in the history of
modern Italy that a major city had been totally evacuated, moreover for a period exceeding
one year (Stucchi et al. 2009).
At the time of the earthquake, rescue of the survivors was complicated by the partial
collapse of San Salvatore, the main regional hospital and the one medical centre best adapted
to emergency response for a mass casualty situation. Within 24 hours the first of two large
field hospitals was set up and active in the vicinity, but several hours after the earthquake San
Salvatore had to be taken out of use and evacuated for fear of structural collapse. Immediate
medical response was thus largely carried out by military medivac, evacuation of seriously
injured patients by air to hospitals in the surrounding region, most of them at considerable
distance from L'Aquila.
Of the 67,000 homeless survivors, about 21,000 were accommodated in 171 tent
camps, mostly in tents for eight people. A similar number were put up in hotels, many on the
Adriatic coast on the other side of the Apennine mountains. The remainder were either found
accommodation on their own or left the region. The tent camps remained for six months,
throughout the summer, until they were replaced with transitional housing. This was of two
types: C.A.S.E. (Complessi Antisismici Sostenibili ed Ecocompatibili) and M.A.P. (Moduli
Abitativi Provvisori). The CASE project consisted of 184 multiple occupancy units with
antiseismic base isolation constructed at 19 sites in the vicinity of L'Aquila (Figure 2). The
MAP units were smaller prefabricated buildings without base isolation that were erected at
more than 50 sites in the area. Some 15,500 people were accommodated in the CASE units
and 8,500 at the MAP sites (Calvi and Spaziante 2009).
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Figure 2. C.A.S.E. transitional housing at Bazzano outside L'Aquila city.
The base isolation columns support the building and
protect it from earthquake shaking.
The Italian Government's immediate- and short-term strategies for managing the
earthquake involved the doctrine of overwhelming force (Alexander 2010). Huge numbers of
vehicles and vast stockpiles of materials were rapidly assembled and applied to the problems
of cordoning off the areas of destruction, buttressing precarious buildings, feeding and
housing displaced populations and coordinating the flow of relief goods and personnel. As
usual, the Italian Fire Brigades constituted the lead agency. Blue-light services and the
hundreds of civil protection volunteer organisations were coordinated by the National
Department of Civil Protection. The strategy was successful, but it remains to be seen whether
such a measure could be adopted in the case of a major earthquake over a much wider area
and involving a much larger population.
The medium-term strategy is yet more controversial. Because of the damage to
vernacular housing, earthquake disasters involve sudden and massive homelessness. The most
common strategy for dealing with this is to use tents and improvised shelter for a very short
period of time (a matter of days or a very few weeks) and then provide cheap but robust
transitional shelter using container homes or small, light-walled prefabs, which typically have
a floor area of 30-40 sq metres and are allotted as one per family (Aysan and Davis 1992).
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317
The cost of such housing is usually in the range 12,000-15,000 per unit, including the
minimum essential urbanisation of sites and construction of temporary networks for the
distribution of utilities. In L'Aquila the cost of the CASE units worked out at 3,750 per
square metre, an average of 280,607 per family unit (Calvi and Spaziante 2009), as much as
a comparable apartment in a major city. At the same time much money was spent on
intensively buttressing the ruined buildings in the town centres, which remained cordoned off
against public access. However, the government could not afford to remove the estimated 4-5
million tonnes of rubble from these sites. The CASE units did not live up to their designation
as 'ecocompatible'. Although they have solar panels for water heating, lack of services and
public transportation has induced a massive dependency on the private car.
In the meantime nothing has been done to improve the local infrastructure or access to
services. Nor has the economy been bolstered. There is evidence of economic stagnation,
outmigration of workers and the loss of something between 16,000 and 26,000 jobs as a direct
result of the destruction of shops, studios and businesses by the earthquake. Moreover, the
devolution of taxation so ardently promoted by successive Italian governments since the
1990s has proved advantageous to some provinces of Italy and fiscally regressive to others.
L'Aquila is the worst affected example of the latter.
The Italian Government's overall strategy for coping with the L'Aquila earthquake is
difficult to analyse in anything but political terms. In mid-2009, the Prime Minister, Silvio
Berlusconi, afflicted by scandals and loss of popularity, pledged to rehouse within six months
all the families made homeless by the earthquake. Hence they were left in tents during the
long hot summer and as the Autumn weather cooled they were rehoused in the rapidly
constructed CASE and MAP units. It was a remarkable logistical achievement, and one that
involved little or no loss of quality between the design and the realisation of all the homes. It
gave the Government and Prime Minister a substantial political advantage that they were able
to exploit, adroitly, in order to gain votes in regional and local elections.
However, the rehousing was achieved at a very high price. To begin with, the cost of
the transitional housing was more than twenty times what more economic shelter would have
cost. Secondly, nothing was invested in transportation and services, leaving sites that had
populations of up to 2,500 people devoid of shops, community centres, coffee bars, bus
services, clinics, schools and doctors' surgeries. Moreover, little attention was paid to the
problem of conserving social cohesion in the assignment of transitional housing units. This
has led to high levels of isolation, depression and post-traumatic stress among the assignees.
In conclusion, the lavish scale of buttressing and vast sums spent on transitional housing have
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318
left little or nothing for reconstruction. The physical aspect of these two initiatives suggests
that the Government has prepared the way for a long interval, perhaps decades, before
reconstruction occurs--if it ever does. There is a precedent for this as the Belice Valley of
western Sicily, another Italian backwater, went through 15 years of stagnation between the
earthquakes of 1968 and the inauguration of a significant amount of reconstructed housing
and urban services (Angotti 1977).
The political symbolism of giving homeless people decent housing cannot be
underestimated. The Italian Government provided everything, right down to furniture, cutlery,
crockery, linen, televisions and electrical equipment. The model for this is Milano Due, the
speculative residential development in Segrate, Milan, built over the period 1970-9, that
propelled Silvio Berlusconi from obscurity to national prominence. Largesse was an
instantaneous vote winner, but state paternalism has destroyed governance, in the sense
intended by the definition given earlier in this chapter. Dissent is barely tolerated and
L'Aquila has once again become politically, economically and socially marginalised in
national life. The tyranny of geography is that, although it is barely 120 km from the centre of
Rome, L'Aquila lies in an intermontane basin with relatively poor connections to other parts
of Italy. Its only major source of employment is the local university, at a time in which Italian
higher education is in a state of very severe depression.
In L'Aquila political protest and dissent have been dealt with by Government forces
using violence and intimidation. Taxation has been inimical to enterprise. Emergent groups
have been created, but they have not achieved the critical mass or prominence to have much
influence on a situation characterised by stagnation and decline. The ancient cultural
background of the area is characterised by poverty and feudal dependence. Although absolute
poverty has gone, traces of the feudal dependence remain, along with the economic
depression of a region that has not been given the best possible incentives to grow and
develop its rather scarce resources. Although chronicles of the miseria of the peasant area are
in no way diagnostic of modern conditions, there are parallels in the inherited cultural
background, especially in the conservatism of a people that for too long has had too much to
lose by protesting (Russo 1955). The biggest victim is good governance and any prosperity
that might have resulted from it.
One characteristic of traditional societies seems to be the particular plight of women.
Although the situation in L'Aquila is not as severe as it is in many countries, the earthquake
nevertheless created a discernable gender bias (cf. Enarson and Morrow 1998. More women
were killed than men, especially in the age groups 30-39 and 70+. Even when one corrects for
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319
the demographic imbalance between the sexes in old age, the anomaly remains (Alexander
2011). The explanation is difficult to formulate but probably relates to the lower mobility of
women than men: some of the men who were registered as resident in the area were probably
not physically present on the night of the earthquake. Whatever the explanation, research that
is at the time of writing this as yet unpublished has revealed that women also suffered more
than men from post-traumatic stress during the months after the earthquake.
The L'Aquila earthquake and its aftermath are open to various forms of symbolic
interpretation. To begin with, it was the first major test of the current Italian civil protection
system since the 1980 earthquake in southern Italy. It thus reflected the competence of the
nation in the face of a severe natural emergency. Secondly, the whole disaster was
overshadowed by political considerations, in the light of the Italian Government's need to gain
short-term popularity for electoral reasons and in order to maintain its power base. The G8
summit that was held in L'Aquila from 8-10 July 2009 represented the apex of this process. In
reality the summit did little for the plight of the Aquilani, but it was redolent with symbolic
moments. For example, the village most affected by the earthquake was Onna, in which 40 of
the 300 inhabitants died when 60 per cent of the building stock collapsed. On 11 June 1944
Onna had been the scene of a massacre of 18 local civilians by German troops and during the
summit the German Foreign Minister pledged funds towards the post-earthquake
reconstruction, a highly symbolic gesture in the light of current moves towards European
unity.
Like many modern catastrophes, the L'Aquila earthquake was a drama played out in
the mass media, especially television, which maintained a constant presence there for weeks.
Modern post-disaster solidarity has a very public face, much at variance with the discretion of
previous ages (Alexander 2006). However, the problem with media coverage is that it does
not necessarily present a consistent and accurate picture of the reality on the ground.
Coverage varies from day to day much more than the situation itself does. Moreover, many of
the most serious problems, for example bureaucratic stagnation, are not particularly
newsworthy. In contrast, it proved easy to interpret the disaster in terms of, for example, the
charity, piety and pity inherent in Catholicism, one of the principal cultural subtexts.
Finally, despite economic stagnation, lack of reconstruction and lack of improvement
of the local infrastructure, some remarkable transformations occurred in the L'Aquila area.
For instance, construction in the region has for centuries been dominated by the use of stone
from which reinforced concrete has taken over (with decidedly mixed results in terms of
seismic response). Suddenly, in the aftermath of the earthquake there was an enormous
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accession of wood and steel construction, much of it arranged in parks, or estates, in the
Anglo-Saxon manner. Symbolically, it seemed to represent a sudden modernisation of a very
ancient area (L'Aquila city is 1000 years old and many of the surrounding settlements are
twice as ancient), or at least a desire for modernisation. Given the paternalism and lack of
governance, one might almost call it a forced modernisation. There is a strong risk in such
cases that it will destroy a genius loci acquired over the centuries. In Italy historic settlements
depend for their identity on a number of iconic monuments and a distinctive kind of urban
form. To erase any of that would only cut people off from their history and diminish their
sense of social identity. There would thus be discord in the semantics of semiotic analysis,
and probably also in the pragmatics (Eco 1978).
Much more could be done to interpret the situation in L'Aquila in semiotic terms, and
the raw material is definitely available. However, that must await further research and in the
meantime it is necessary to draw some conclusions.
Conclusion: Social Models of Disaster
The earliest human ecological models of disaster were linear in conception. Hazard acted
upon vulnerability to produce disaster. It followed that, as hazards were at the start of the
process, they received the lion's share of the attention. This was also in line with the
dominance of physical over social sciences at the time. Over the period 1979-83, researchers
working in developing countries produced the so-called "radical critique", which argued that
in the explanation of disaster vulnerability carries more weight than hazard (Hewitt 1983). As
a result of feedback loops, hazard can be regarded as a trigger for the social processes that
create vulnerability, which is the principal determinant of disaster potential.
Increasing knowledge of disasters and the social processes involved, and the
increasing complexity of life in the early 21st century, suggest that a new model ought to be
formulated (Figure 3). The vulnerability of human socio-economic systems is acted upon by
physical hazards (whether natural or anthropogenic), as well as cultural and historical factors.
The plexus of the context and consequences of these associations is what determines the form,
entity and size of any ensuing disaster.
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321
Figure 3. Possible evolution of models of disaster.
Clearly, this model is both preliminary and schematic. Much work needs to be done to
fill in the details and clarify the relationships. For instance, history is a vital explanatory factor
(and we live in an age that is apt to forget its lessons), but it does not determine the future, it
merely contributes some important ingredients. Much lateral thinking will be required if
disaster is to be interpreted creatively and with penetrating insight. Trends and tendencies will
have to be understood and incorporated into this process, and we live in a world that is
consuming resources at an accelerating rate, that is undergoing environmental change at an
ever faster speed, and that is becoming increasingly crowded with people who live, travel and
work in hazardous areas. Finally, any valid, workable explanation of disaster for the new
millennium must include the effects of technological change, which has radically altered the
ways in which we see and interpret catastrophe. Hence, we face both an intellectual and a
practical challenge, which is worth rising to, as theory is the "road map" by which we
navigate through the chaos of disaster and risk situations and are thus able to manage them.
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Captulo 11 . Vulnerability Science: Models, Methods,
and Indicators - Susan Cutter
11.1 Introduction
There are many instances throughout the world where a singular hazard event, such as
a hurricane or an earthquake produced very different impacts. Consider the case of Hurricane
Katrina along Americans Gulf Coast. The hurricane produced very dissimilar effects in New
Orleans, Louisiana than it did for Gulfport in the neighbouring state of Mississippi, for
example. In addition to the variations in the precipitating hazard (in New Orleans it was levee
failures and overtopping due to storm surge; while in coastal Mississippi it was the storm
surge and wind), there was a significant differentiation in the impacts among the
communities. For example, while the hurricane affected everyone in the region, some
communities experienced greater impacts than others and this was due to underlying social
conditions that made them more or less vulnerable to the event. Another example of
differential impacts is the 2010 earthquake in Haiti (magnitude 7.0) and a larger earthquake
event in Maule, Chile (magnitude 8.8) almost a month later. The human toll in Haiti was very
high, estimated at between 200,000-250,000 deaths (NYT 2011). In Chile, the estimated
death toll was around 500, significantly fewer despite a larger magnitude event. One
explanation for the disparity in human impact between the two nations relates to the
vulnerability of Haiti and its population relative to Chile and the Chilean people.
11.2 What is vulnerability science?
Vulnerability, broadly defined, is the potential for loss. Vulnerability includes both
elements of exposure (what circumstances place people and localities at risk from a hazard),
and sensitivity (those circumstances that enhance or reduce the ability of the population,
infrastructure, or physical systems to respond and recover from environmental threats). While
there are many debates in the literature on these concepts, these generic and simplified
definitions capture the essence of vulnerability (Cutter 1996; Turner et al. 2003; Wisner et al.
2004; Adger 2006; Birkmann 2006).
Vulnerability science provides the empirical basis for hazard reduction policies
through the development of methods and metrics for analyzing societal vulnerability to
environmental hazards and extreme events (Cutter 2003). In particular, vulnerability science
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seeks to examine the geographic patterns between and among places in terms of those factors
that influence local (defined here as sub-national) capacities to prepare for, respond to, and
recover from disasters.
In order to achieve such an understanding, an integrative approach is requiredone
that seeks to explain the complex interactions between social, natural, and engineered
systems. While understanding the natural systems and processes that give rise to hazards is
important, we cannot fully comprehend the impact of such processes or natural events unless
we examine how such systems interact with society. For example, fires are a natural process,
and in chaparral ecosystems such as those found around the world in Mediterranean climates,
the ecosystem requires periodic fires in order to survive. It is only when such wildfires occur
near populated areas that they become more than just a natural process as the potential for loss
increases in such urban-wildland interfaces. Similarly, vulnerability science examines the
interactions between social systems and engineered systems and structures such as dams,
levees, or shoreline protection works, or housing and transportation networks. The
vulnerability arises because of the potential for loss and adverse impact on people should one
of these systems and/or structures fail. The third element of vulnerability science is the
requirement for geospatial understanding and place-based research. All disasters are local and
the immediate responses to them are local as well.
Vulnerability science helps us to understand that the same event can produce very
different impacts across the immediate landscape as illustrated by the examples in the
introduction. It also provides a mechanism for investigating how societal factors intervene
between nature and the constructed environment to redistribute the risk before an event and in
losses afterward. The comparison between places requires consistent metrics, so the concept
of measurement is critical in vulnerability science. In fact, the systematic ability to compare
one locality to another in terms of its vulnerability is a key component in vulnerability
science.
The natural or environmental conditions, which help to understand exposure, are
generally based on information from the natural sciences. The built environment or
infrastructure component is derived from the engineering sciences and includes measurements
of the critical infrastructure (pipelines, transportation networks, communication systems) as
well as the building stock (residential, commercial, industrial, institutional). Finally,
measurement of the social conditions is required generally using socio-economic and other
demographic data. The unit of measurement can be the individual (a person, a household, a
structure itself), a group (social groups such as college students, neighborhoods,
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infrastructure), or some spatial entity (a municipality, a block group, some other
administrative unit) where the social, built environment, and physical data are integrated.
11.3 Mapping exposure
The majority of hazards-related research is focused on mapping the physical systems
and delineating the risk associated with hazards. In this regard, we see the use of GIS to map
floodplains (and the flood hazard), coastal inundation zones, landslide hazards, seismic areas,
and many more. In the U.S. there are a number of different models that conduct these types
of spatial exposure analyses for particular perils such as seismic, flooding, and hurricane
winds (HAZUS) or for storm surge inundation (SLOSH), or coastal erosion (Thieler and
Hammar-Klose 1999; Wald 2003; Merz et al. 2007) . Increasingly there are models designed
to examine the spatial delineation of inundation zones due to sea-level rise (Titus and
Richman 2001; Wu et al. 2002).
The delineation of exposure zones is done at any scale and normally is done using
GIS-based technologies (Jensen and Hodgson 2007; Cutter et al. 2007). Often represented as
line or polygon features on the map of the study area, the exposure zones can be aggregated to
some political or administrative unit such as a town or US county for comparison purposes
across a wider geographic area. There are many examples in the published literature in
journals as Natural Hazards, Applied Geography, Earthquake Spectra, or Natural Hazards
Review. Cross-national comparisons are also available such as those used in SOPACs
Environmental Vulnerability Index
(http://www.vulnerabilityindex.net/EVI_Background.htm), or the Prevalent Vulnerability
Index http://www.iadb.org/exr/disaster/pvi.cfm?language=en&parid=4), published by the
Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).
11.4 Measuring sensitivity
Social vulnerability is the concept that captures the sensitivity of the population to the
adverse impacts of hazards and disasters (Cutter et al. 2003; Laska and Morrow 2006). Social
vulnerability identifies those characteristics of the population that either enhance or impede
their ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a hazard event or disaster. Social
vulnerability also helps us to understand the distribution of risks and losses (in other words)
where vulnerable populations lives relative to vulnerable natural environments. There is an
extensive body of research on vulnerable populations, much of this based on post-disaster
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field surveys and observations done within the social sciences. Some of the social
characteristics that influence social vulnerability are found in Table 1.
Despite this case study knowledge, there are few systematic efforts to quantify social
vulnerability for given places. One such effort is the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI
TM
).
SoVI is a quantitative assessment of those characteristics that influence social vulnerability to
hazards (pre-event) and facilitates comparisons between geographic units (counties, census
divisions) in terms of their relative levels of social vulnerability. Such socioeconomic profiles
are generated from census information and are then placed into a statistical procedure for
reducing the number of variables into a smaller set of factors that describe vulnerability
(Cutter et al. 2003). In this way, SoVI is able to capture the multi-dimensional nature of
social vulnerability. For example, race or ethnicity in and of themselves do not necessarily
indicate vulnerable populations, but when combined with age and gender, such populations
are highlighted (e.g. African American elderly women). For more on the construction of SoVI
see (http://sovius.org). For the most part, SoVI is more of an algorithm for developing social
vulnerability profiles, than an actual tool. It has been replicated for historic censuses in the
US (Cutter and Finch 2008), downscaled to census tracts and block groups (Schmidtlein et al.
2009), and adapted to other countries such as Norway
(http://www.svt.ntnu.no/geo/Doklager/Projects/SoVI_Norway.pdf), Vietnam (Nhuan et al.
2009), and Barbados and St. Vincent (Boruff and Cutter, 2007).
The geographic expression of the Social Vulnerability Index is a map that depicts the
extremes of the statistical distribution of the index scores (normally greater than or less than
one standard deviation from the mean). In this way, the map illustrates those areas that have
relatively high levels of social vulnerability as well as relatively low levels of social
vulnerability. For example, Figure 1 is the map of social vulnerability for the US for 2000.
The concentration of low social vulnerability is found along the eastern seaboard from
Washington D.C. to New York and then in the Boston metropolitan area. This is a region
high in wealth, with few extremes in terms of the gender and age distribution of the
population. The California coastal counties also register relatively low levels of social
vulnerability. On the other hand, the counties depicted in red have a combination of factors
that are producing high levels of social vulnerability. For example, the lower Mississippi
River runs through a historically African American poverty region within the U.S. In these
counties there is little employment, a lack of education, limited access to health services
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because of the rural nature of the counties, and a significant number of female-headed
households all contribute to higher levels of vulnerability.
11.5 Intersection of exposure and sensitivity
In depicting the vulnerability of places, it is important to consider not just one of the
elements of vulnerabilityphysical or socialbut their intersection. In some places, the
physical vulnerability may be quite high (such as along coastlines), but if the population
residing there is wealthy with considerable resources for disaster preparedness and response
(e.g. lower social vulnerability), the community will be able to recover in a timely fashion. If,
on the other hand, the neighboring coastal community (with the same level of physical
exposure), has different social characteristics (poor, elderly, minority residents), then that
community will take a longer time to recover as the capacity of residents to absorb and
recover from the losses will be constrained.
There are many different ways in which to achieve the intersection of physical and
social vulnerability, but the most advantageous is through spatial analysis and mapping
(Cutter et al. 2000; OBrien et al. 2004; Zahran et al. 2008). For example, Burton and Cutter
(2008) examined the flood hazard in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta area in California.
They mapped the 100-year and 500-year flood zones (based on modeled data from FEMAs
HAZUS software) and then constructed the social vulnerability index for the study area.
Using GIS, the intersection of the two produced the overall place vulnerability to the flood
hazard. The advantage of such a procedure enables one to examine what is the primary
driving factor behind such vulnerabilityexposure; sensitivity; or both equally. Another
approach is the use of bivariate mapping where the exposure and the social vulnerability are
depicted as a choropleth map with three categories (high, medium, low). When mapped
simultaneously, this produces a 9-cell matrix (see Figure 2). In this example, communities in
the upper right (high exposure, high social vulnerability) would be the most vulnerable
overall. However, communities with high exposure and medium social vulnerability or with
high social vulnerability but medium exposure would be more vulnerable as well, but the
contributing factor would be slightly different. A good example of the use of bivariate
mapping for vulnerability assessment can be seen in Oxfams vulnerability and climate
change in the US Southeast tool (http://adapt.oxfamamerica.org/). Another example is the
mapped comparison of flood inundation levels in the city of New Orleans compared to the
underlying social vulnerability (Finch et al. 2010).
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Conclusion
This paper illustrates how hazard exposure and social vulnerability interact to create
the landscapes of hazards or hazardscapes. Vulnerability science provides the framework for
the construction of metrics for vulnerability, which includes the computation of indices for
measuring social vulnerability as well as the geospatial models for the intersection of social
and physical processes. The significance of vulnerability science is that a one size fits all
hazard risk management strategy ignores the reality of social inequality and the differential
social burdens that hazards produce. Hazard vulnerability science reminds us that space and
place matter, and provides us with the requisite tools and techniques for empirically
demonstrating such a principle.
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Table 1: Examples of Characteristics that Influence Social Vulnerability
Source: Heinz Center, 2002; Cutter et al. 2003
Concept Rationale Variable Nature of
Influence
Special needs
populations
Difficult to identify
(infirmed or transient),
often invisible in
communities
Homeless
population;
Nursing home
residents
Increases
Age Affects mobility out of
harms way; require
special care; more
susceptible to harm
Elderly
Children
Increases
Increases
Socioeconomic status Ability to absorb losses
and recover; more
material goods to lose
Wealthy
Poor
Decreases
Increases
Race and ethnicity Imposes language and
cultural barriers; lack of
access to post-disaster
resources; tend to occupy
high hazard zones
Hispanics (in
US)
Increases
Gender Gender specific
employment could be
affected; lower wages;
care-giving roles
Women Increases
Housing type and
tenure
Renters often lack
insurance and investment
in community; housing
type or construction
Renters
Mobile homes
Increases
Increases
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Figure 1 Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards in the United States, 2000
Source: http://webra.cas.sc.edu/hvri/image/figure/SoVI2000.png
Figure 2 Example of Bivariate Mapping
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333
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Captulo 12 . The Unperceived Risk to Europes Coasts:
Tsunamis and the Vulnerability of Cadiz, Spain Jrn
Birkmann, Korinna von Teichman, Torsten Welle, Mauricio
Gonzlez and Maitane Olabarrieta
12.1 Introduction
Work on tsunamis affecting Europes coasts often provokes scepticism among the public.
Most people are unaware of the fact that European coasts on the Mediterranean or Atlantic are
tsunami-prone. This unawareness is prominent not only among people living far away from
these coasts but, alarmingly, also among people directly exposed to the potential hazards.
Although tsunamis are a low-frequency hazard in most regions, the recent tsunami that hit the
island of Samoa in September 2009, the tsunami in Indonesia in 2007, and the major Indian
Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 revealed the devastating effect of this type of unexpected
hazard.
Interestingly, the Mediterranean and adjacent areas rank among the most seismically active
regions in the world, together with the Pacific and Indian Oceans as well as the Caribbean
(Frisch & Meschede 2007, p. 18; Schellmann 2007, p. 269), and are therefore the second
largest generators of tsunamis around the globe (NEAMTWS website 2008). In this regard,
the international community, IOC/UNESCO in particular, is promoting the development of a
North Eastern Atlantic Tsunami Warning System (NEANTWS). The reason for the seismicity
of this region is the collision between the African and the Eurasian tectonic plates.
Furthermore, there exist other tsunami-genic sources besides seismicity, such as volcanic
eruptions and submarine landslides (Tinti 2007). The seismic sources provoke small to
medium scale tsunamis that happen rather frequently within the Mediterranean Sea, but which
can also unleash rare but potentially very destructive tsunamis in the Atlantic Ocean (Carreo
2005). The movement of the plates and the bathymetry of the Mediterranean Sea floor do not
allow for large waves within the Mediterranean basin, but the damage caused to fishing boats
and docks in the ports of the Balearic Islands in May 2003 provided proof that even small
sized tsunamis can be potentially destructive. The best known example of the larger tsunamis
that can be generated in the Atlantic Ocean is the one that started in the Gorringe Bank area
south-westwards of Cape St. Vincent (Portugal) in 1755. The seaquake that caused the
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336
tsunami had a magnitude of 8.5 9.0 and was responsible for significant damage not only in
Lisbon, which was the most affected city, but also in Cadiz and other villages along the
Spanish coast (Tinti 2007, p. 3). Tsunamis of comparable size have an estimated recurrence
period of eight times in 450 years (Carreo 2005).
The possibility of this type of event occurring, however, is hardly publicised and therefore
rarely known amongst the wider public. This experience from regions with low-frequency but
potentially disastrous hazards is mirrored on the Atlantic coasts of Spain: low-frequency often
goes hand in hand with the fact that local authorities and people tend to forget the possibility
of occurrence. thus becoming complacent about potential tsunami risks and dismissing them
psychologically. The result is the aforementioned lack of awareness, the absence of any kind
of tsunami warning system such as the one that exists in the Pacific or the one currently being
put in place in the Indian Ocean, as well as the absence of education and information about
such a potential threat. Science is not completely free from blame for this deficiency since
tsunami research including hazard and vulnerability assessments in Europe only started about
30 years ago, and has never received appropriate attention.
Furthermore, the European coasts - in particularly the Spanish coasts on the Atlantic and the
Mediterranean - have undergone an enormous physical and socio-economic transformation.
While at the beginning of the 1950s most of the coasts were still untouched, today the entire
coastline is characterized by large hotel buildings and a dense tourist infrastructure. Thus, the
number of people, buildings, and other forms of infrastructure potentially exposed to tsunamis
has increased substantially within the last few decades.
This paper focuses on selected results derived from studies carried out by the UNITED
NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) in
cooperation with project partners from Spain, Italy, and Switzerland on the project site in
Cadiz, Spain, within the TRANSFER project, which aims to detect and estimate the
dimensions of the tsunami risk in Europe. UNU-EHS has conducted a vulnerability
assessment based on different tsunami inundation scenarios developed by the Ocean &
Coastal Research Group, Instituto de Hidrulica Ambiental of the University of Cantabria
(UC), in the form of inundation vector data sets (UC and IGN, 2009).68 These scenarios were
used to estimate the potential inundation areas and their respective socio-economic
vulnerabilities. Thus, UNU-EHS has estimated the different degrees of vulnerability of social
68 UCA developed a methodology to elaborate tsunami hazard thematic maps. Using this methodology,
deterministic and probabilistic high resolution tsunami inundation maps have been developed for Cadiz. The
probabilistic maps combine the occurrence of earthquakes from various potential sources in the zone, source
mechanisms, epicenter locations, and sea level (astronomical and meteorological tides).
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337
groups and the economy, and particularly critical infrastructures (e.g. electricity networks,
etc.) by developing vulnerability indicators and additional criteria that are presented in
vulnerability maps.
The conceptual framework applied and key findings will be shown and discussed in the
following sections.
12.2 Theoretical background
The topic of risk and vulnerability studies has become a wide field combining the interests
and efforts of different academic and non-academic disciplines, policy makers, and
development agencies. This is the reason for the existence of many different theoretical and
practical approaches on how to define and conceptualize the different terms such as hazard,
risk, and vulnerability. Thywissen (2006) has collected 36 definitions for the term
vulnerability alone. Therefore, it is essential that any vulnerability assessment be based on
an approach that clearly outlines how it uses those terms.
This paper and the corresponding research are based on the approach developed by Bogardi
and Birkmann in 2004, called the BBC (Bogardi, Birkmann, Cardona) framework. This
framework grew out of three discussions: how to link vulnerability, human security, and
sustainable development; the need for a holistic approach to disaster risk assessment; and the
broader debate on developing causal frameworks for measuring environmental degradation in
the context of sustainable development (Birkmann 2006, p. 35). It describes vulnerability as
being composed of the three factors of exposure, susceptibility, and coping capacity. In
addition, vulnerability is closely linked to all three spheres of the concept of sustainable
development, namely the social, economic, and environmental spheres. If a hazard is likely to
strike, the respective vulnerability of all three spheres combines with the hazard to constitute
an environmental, social, and economic risk. This risk can be reduced by the respective
reduction of the existing vulnerabilities through preparedness and other disaster management
measures that intervene in the system through feedback processes. The integration of the
coping capacities of the people affected and potential intervention tools as possible ways to
reduce vulnerabilities emphasizes the view that vulnerability should be considered within a
dynamic perspective. In this way, the framework encompasses a problem-solving perspective
and shows the importance of being proactive in order to reduce vulnerability before an event
strikes the society, the economy, or the environment (Birkmann 2006, p. 36) instead of solely
focusing on emergency management after a disaster has occurred. The BBC framework points
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338
out that vulnerability reduction in terms of forward-looking and mitigating interventions
should be part of the daily political decision-making process which all cost-benefit analyses
have clearly revealed to be more effective.
The three factors composing vulnerability, namely a) exposure, b) susceptibility, and c)
coping capacity, based on the assumption that vulnerability consists of an external side, which
refers to the exposure to certain hazards, and an internal side consisting of susceptibility,
meaning the conditions of the exposed element or community (Birkmann 2006, p. 16) and
the ability to cope with the hazard, namely the means by which people or organizations use
available resources and abilities to face adverse consequences (Thywissen 2006a, p. 456).
There is no vulnerability if there is no exposure to a certain type of hazard. When developing
vulnerability indicators, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish precisely between aspects that
reduce susceptibility and those that increase coping capacity. Certain overlaps are therefore
unavoidable. The splitting of vulnerability into two sides was first proposed by Chambers
(1989) and was then elaborated more prominently by Watts and Bohle in 1993. Assuming a
dualistic structure and multiple dimensions (environmental, social, economic, and
institutional) of vulnerability, the BBC model represents a conceptual framework that
underlines the notion of vulnerability within a dynamic perspective, going beyond a mere
exposure assessment (Birkmann 2006). Thus, this conceptual model also allows for the
integration of other approaches such as the sustainable livelihood approach which emphasizes
the necessity of having access to various types of assets in order to reduce vulnerability
successfully.
Risk and vulnerability assessment is an important aspect of the development of an effective
Tsunami Early Warning System and contributes significantly to disaster risk reduction. The
development of frameworks and methodologies to conduct risk assessments with the purpose
of identifying measures to be implemented to reduce existing risks, or to enhance the
capacities of the population to respond efficiently was carried out by Villagran (2008) in Sri
Lanka. Post et al. (2009) developed a methodology for the assessment of human immediate
response capability related to tsunamis at the sub-national scale for Indonesia, especially the
coastal areas of Sumatra, Java, and Bali, in order to integrate this information into
intervention measures such as an early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning,
and awareness and preparedness strategies. The vulnerability assessment within the German
Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) project focuses on vulnerability
factors of people exposed to tsunamis in terms of loss of life, injury, and loss of livelihood.
The assessment addresses the following components: the susceptibility and degree of
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exposure of vulnerable elements (population, critical facilities, built environment, and regions
affected), and the ability to respond (coping) and recover from the disastrous impact of a
tsunami (IOC/UNESCO 2009; Taubenboeck et al. 2009). According to the BBC framework
mentioned above, the vulnerability assessment for Cdiz took into account exposed elements
and their susceptibility as well as their coping capacities, both of which influence the
likelihood of harm and injury when a hazard strikes (Birkmann and Fernando 2008, p. 85).
12.3 Study site
The Bay of Cadiz is geographically between longitude 6 W and 6 25 W and latitude 36 20
N and 36 40 N, in the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula. It faces west to the Gulf of Cadiz
and is landlocked by the mainland at its south-western, southern, and eastern margins. This
area is a naturally protected zone with large tidal flatbeds, tidal channels, and several beaches.
Its geomorphology, being a peninsula, its location between the Strait of Gibraltar and the river
mouth of the Guadalquivir, and the natural port formed by the Bay of Cadiz have made the
city of Cadiz along with the entire surrounding region a first order strategic area in terms of
maritime, commercial, and military activities (PGOU 2007). Cadiz is not only a city but also
an important port in south-western Spain. It is the capital of the province of Cadiz, which
represents one of the eight provinces that make up the autonomous community of Andalusia.
Cadiz is the oldest permanently inhabited city of the Iberian Peninsula. It was founded by the
Phoenicians between 1104 and 900 BC. Ever since, it has functioned as an important trade,
commercial, and naval base under different cultural governances. These have endowed the
city with a rich historical and cultural heritage, which now make it a great tourist attraction.
Its commercial importance has steadily increased, currently representing the strongest
economic sector owing to its local shipyards and ports (PGOU 2007). The net business
revenue at Cadiz port yields about 21.31 million Euros (in 2007, Puerto de la Baha de Cadiz
2008), and the port also serves as an important node for cruises to the Canary Islands and
South America. In 2006, about 300 cruises arrived at the port, bringing more than 176,000
tourists, which helped to sustain the local economy (PGOU 2007). The port of Cadiz
contributes most to the citys economy since it also stimulates the complementary economic
activities in the third sector. In comparison, the industrial sector has been constantly declining
in importance, and manufacturing jobs and their spin-off businesses are expected to continue
to weaken in the future (PGOU 2007).
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340
Referring to the demography, in 2007 Cadiz had a population of 128,554 inhabitants (IEA
2008), making it the city with the highest population density in Spain (29.672.95
inhabitants/km
2
). Despite this, the demographic trend is negative. In fact, it is the only city in
the Bay of Cadiz whose population is declining. It lost about 14,000 residents between 1995
and 2006, a decrease of 9% (PGOU 2007). One of the reasons for this decline is the
geographical location of the city. Squeezed onto a spit of land surrounded by the Atlantic
Ocean, it follows that there is an obvious shortage of vacant building land. A national law
governing coastal development prohibits reclaiming land from the sea and since most of its
existing housing stock comprises no more than two or three levels, there is simply no space
for the population to grow. The buildings in the Old City are not eligible for urban renewal
due to their age and historical significance.
Another reason for Cadizs diminishing population is the high unemployment rate of the city,
which is the highest of all provincial capitals in Spain.
69
The growing tourism sector is
apparently not able to change this situation much. Although Cadiz attracts an increasing
number of tourists every year, mainly because of its beautiful beaches, the tourism sector does
not significantly increase the income of families or reduce the unemployment rate. In general,
the economic situation of Cadiz is quite alarming, which has meant that the governorate has
had to call on federal support several times and the city has received financial support from
the European Union (PGOU 2007).
12.3.1 Exposure to Tsunamis
Cadizs geographical location as a peninsula reaching into the open Atlantic makes it
especially exposed to all sorts of ocean-related hazards, such as storm surges and tsunamis. It
follows that several historical records of destructive tsunamis have surfaced. The oldest
accounts date back to the years 218 210 BC, and were determined by historical, geo-
morphological, sedimentary, palaeontological, and geo-chronological data records (Luque et
69
Young people between 18 and 30 years tend to migrate to other Spanish, Latin American, or European cities
to seek jobs. Therefore, the unemployment rate of people younger than 25 has actually decreased since 1994,
whereas the rate of the remaining sector of the population, especially the female population over 25 has
increased (PGOU 2007). In total, the outward migration has caused a slight but constant decrease in
unemployment from 15,835 in 1994 to 10,379 in 2005 (PGOU 2007). In the near future, employment will be
concentrated in about 90% of cases in the services sector, whereas jobs in the fishery, industry, and construction
sectors will continue to decline. The fact that the residents under 20 years account for only 17.99% of the whole
population while those over 65 account for 17.23% makes Cadiz one of the most aging cities in Spain (IEA
2008).
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341
al. 2002, p. 623; Fernndez Reina 2001). In fact, the seismic chronicles summarized in a
catalogue by Galbis (1937, 1940, cited in Luque et al. 2002) speak of 18 tsunamis affecting
the Spanish Atlantic coast between the third century BC and 1900. The most prominent
occurrence, described in great detail, was the earthquake and subsequent tsunami in 1755
which originated about 200 km southwest of Cape St. Vincent. Sedimentary records prove
that this event must have had a minimum wave height of at least the 1.5 metres required to
overtop the barrier of the city, but the extent of deposition suggests an event with a wave of a
much greater height of approximately 10 metres (Carreo 2005; La Voz, 01.11.08). It had its
strongest impact on the city of Lisbon, but it also accounted for 270 victims in Cadiz (La Voz,
01.11.08).
The most damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected the coasts of Portugal,
Morocco, and Spain were probably generated in the SWIT zone (the Azores Gibraltar fault
zone), including the mega tsunami that struck on 1 November 1755. In order to define the
location and characteristics of possible tsunami-genic sources in the frame of the TRANSFER
Project (see TRANSFER, 2009a), four individual source zones including five potential
tsunami sources and source mechanisms were distinguished in the SWIT area. The identified
areas were the Gorringe Bank zone (GBZ), the Horseshoe/Marques de Pombal zone (HSZ),
the South Algarve zone (AZ), and the Alboran Slab zone (ABZ). The five potential tsunami
sources are the Gorringe Bank Fault (GBF), the Horseshoe Fault (HSF), the Marques de
Pombal Fault (MPF), the Portimo Bank Fault (PBF), the Cadiz Wedge Fault (CWF). In each
source zone a Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) was envisaged. This maximum credible
earthquake was associated with the typical faults in each source, generating the maximum
credible tsunami scenario for each fault. As additional data for the probabilistic inundation
maps, the magnitude of the scaling relationship based on fault lengths and length/width
relations was used. The dip attributed to the faults is due to taking into consideration the
geodynamic significance and evolution.
12.4 Assessment data and methodologies to estimate
Tsunami vulnerability and risk
Based on the BBC conceptual framework (see Birkmann 2006, p. 34), this study only
considers the social and the economic dimension of vulnerability including critical
infrastructure. In order to derive information for all three variables of vulnerability
exposure, susceptibility, and coping capacity (see Fig. 1), statistical as well as spatial data
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342
were needed. The data were obtained from following institutes: statistical data based on socio-
economic factors from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain (INE;
http://www.ine.es/welcoing.htm), demographic and socio-economic data from the regional
government in Andalucia, and geospatial data from the Plan General de Ordenacin
Urbanistica, Ayuntamiento de Cdiz (http://www.cadiz.es/app). Based on the quality criteria
for indicators, a list of desired data and indicators to be obtained for Cdiz was developed
(Nardo et al. 2005). However, due to different limiting factors, not all of these data could be
received and therefore included in the vulnerability assessment.
12.4.1 Tsunami hazard assessment and potential inundation areas
The analysis of those areas and elements exposed to tsunami impacts requires the
development of hazard scenarios and their respective inundation areas. In this regard, the
exposure was calculated according to specific tsunami scenarios termed Worst Case scenario
and Probability 5000 scenario. Both scenarios and respective inundation maps were
developed by the University of Cantabria. In methodological terms, that means that
deterministic as well as probabilistic high resolution tsunami inundation maps were developed
for Cadiz. The deterministic approximation combines the worst scenario for each potential
tsunami-genic source with the local tides. Based on this methodology, inundation lines,
maximum water depth, maximum water velocities, the maximum Froude number, as well as
maximum hydrodynamic and hydrostatic forces of the Worst Case scenario coinciding with
the most probable tidal level were elaborated, derived from the hazard analysis. The second
level of analysis encompassed probabilistic maps based on Monte Carlo methods. This
method combines the occurrence of earthquakes in the potential sources, source mechanisms,
epicentre locations, sea level (astronomical and meteorological tides), and more than 800
numerical simulations using a specific model, the so-called C3 model (Olabarrieta et al,
2009). Respective inundation scenarios for Cadiz and the larger region around Cadiz could be
generated for return periods of 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 years.
For this study we chose two scenarios, the first one called Probability 5000. Scenarios are
useful to include the effects of different variables or uncertainties in the calculation of the
probabilistic hazard due to tsunamis. Within these methods, the tidal effect as well as other
random variables can easily be taken into account. Hence the maximum wave elevation for a
5000-year return period was used to derive the inundation scenario and respective exposure
estimations. The second scenario is called the Worst Case scenario. This was a deterministic
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343
approach calculated by means of the aggregation of all the worst cases (different tsunami-
genic sources) including the maximum wave elevation during high tide. Based on these
inundation scenarios, the respective maps and analyses were carried out regarding the
potential population as well as the infrastructure exposed. However, since exposure analysis is
just one layer of vulnerability, the analyses of susceptibility and coping capacity were
developed as additional information layers derived from demographic and socio-economic
data obtained from the National Institute of Statistics of Spain (INE) and the Plan General de
Ordenacin Urbanstica, Ayuntamiento de Cadiz.
12.4.2 Methods for the estimation of vulnerability
Calculation of the population exposed
The municipal area of Cadiz is divided into 10 districts, which are in turn subdivided into 112
sections. The exposure of Cadiz to tsunami hazards is calculated for each section based on the
inundation vector data (Probability 5000 and Worst Case Scenarios) from the Instituto de
Hidrulica, Universidad de Cantabria. The unit of exposure is people/ha or total number of
people that could potentially be affected by the different inundation scenarios in each section.
An additional analysis with the same principle has been undertaken for the critical
infrastructure exposed.
Calculation of susceptibility
Based on the age structure of the demographic dataset, we extracted the predisposition of
people easily affected or influenced by tsunamis. The following two indicators were defined
for susceptibility: the first indicator comprises the percentage of population younger than six
and older than 65 years. These thresholds are based on findings from studies in Sri Lanka and
Indonesia that were carried out after the December tsunami 2004 (Rofi, A. & S. Doocy 2006).
Examinations of dead and missing by age group demonstrated that small children and people
older than 61 were most affected and thus were more vulnerable compared with other age
groups (Jayasingam & Birkmann 2007). The second indicator is derived from the following
equation (1):
( )
100
_
65 15
1 -
|
|
.
|
\
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
population total
years male
(1)
This equation encompasses a combination of dependency ratio and gender ratio and states the
percentage of the total population to be supported in case of a tsunami. That means it outlines
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344
areas that need external assistance the most, and is therefore a relative measure of
vulnerability. Both indicators were tested on normal distribution but the gender-related
dependency ratio was not normally distributed. Hence, this indicator was denominated as a
logarithm and thereafter both indicators were z-transformed. Each indicator was half weighted
and added up to obtain one aggregated indicator for susceptibility. The rationale of focusing
on the dependency ratio and the gender ratio is based on findings of research on the Indian
Ocean Tsunami that clearly underlined that these sudden-onset hazards impact the young,
elderly, and female population more significantly than the male population of working age
(see also Birkmann & Fernando 2008).
Calculation of coping capacity
The coping capacity comprises the means by which people use available resources and
abilities to face the adverse consequences of a hazard (see UN/ISDR 2004). In our study we
chose the following indicators to derive one value indicating coping capacity: the percentage
of buildings with more than one level to which people could vertically evacuate; the
percentage of people that had received school education for more than six years; the number
of children aged under six, illiterates, and non-Spanish-speaking migrants who would have
difficulties in reading and understanding a warning message. The first two indicators are
positive coping factors that means buildings with more than one level allow in general for
vertical evacuation in the event of a tsunami - whereas the last aggregated indicator describes
coping deficits. The factors of building height and the sum of people who could not
understand a warning were expressed in a logarithm to get a normal distribution afterwards
they were z-transformed. The percentage of people that received more than six years of school
education was normally distributed and thus z-transformed. All three coping factors were
weighted by 0.33 and summed up in one coping indicator.
Vulnerability related to the social dimension
In order to aggregate the three key components of vulnerability a) exposure, b) susceptibility,
and c) coping capacity each factor had to be weighted. Due to the fact that there are a number
of weighting techniques which could be derived from statistical models or from participatory
methods, the authors chose the equal weighting method, since all variables are worth the same
in the composite indicator (Nardo et al. 2005). Subsequently the following equation was used
for the aggregation: Aggregated vulnerability= Exposure + Susceptibility Coping Capacity.
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345
12.5 Analysis and interpretation
The calculation of the indicators for each of the three key parameters of vulnerability
(exposure, susceptibility, and coping capacity) and the aggregated vulnerability of the social
and economic dimension as well as some qualitative data on both social and economic aspects
of vulnerability revealed the following distribution and patterns of vulnerability in the city of
Cadiz with respect to the two inundation scenarios of Probability 5000 and Worst Case. It is
important to note that the economic dimension focused on the aspect of critical infrastructure
in particular, since a disruption or loss of the services provided by critical infrastructure would
imply major impacts on economic activities (e.g. the harbour and the hotel industry) within
the city. Additionally the dependence on critical infrastructure is a major challenge, especially
for and within industrialized countries.
12.5.1 Social vulnerability
Exposure
Under the inundation scenario with a probability of a 5000-year re-occurrence period, the
areas most exposed are those lying in the western part of the city, reflecting the fact that a
potential tsunami would hit the city from a south-westerly direction. Due to a larger
inundation area and a higher population density these sections show a higher overall exposure
of people compared to sections lying on the eastern side of the city. The sections with the
highest number of people exposed are located on the coast in the south-west of the old town
(La Via) and in the south of La Telegrafa in the southern part of the city. The sections
in the centre of Varela, in the western and north-western parts of La Via and in the
north-east of Centro rank in the middle regarding exposure. All other sections exposed
either comprise only small parts of inundated areas, or the population density and therefore
the percentage of people exposed is low. It is important to note, however, that the grey
colouring of sections around the port areas (especially Cadiz City port) does not indicate that
these areas are not exposed. The only reason for the grey colour is that there are no permanent
residents in those section and they therefore do not appear in any statistical references.
Nevertheless, the total number of people working within these port sections is estimated to be
more than 1000, of which about 500 are permanently physically present in the port facilities
during the day, and about 100 during the night. Therefore, the physical exposure (the
inundated areas) of the port infrastructure as well as of the employees is quite large.
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346
With respect to the Worst Case scenario, large parts of the city would be completely covered
by water. Only a few sections in the centre of the old town and in the northern part of
Varela would not be affected at all. Nevertheless, the sections still show differences in their
exposure since their respective areas and resident numbers are different. For example, the
sections in La Via and in Varela have a higher population density than other areas that
are also completely covered by water, so their exposure is higher compared to the other
sections. Overall, the exposure assessment underlines that about 7,700 people would be at risk
in a tsunami impact when considering the Probability 5000 scenario, and nearly 80,000 people
(61% of the total population of Cadiz) are at risk when considering the Worst Case scenario
(see table 1 and table 2).
Susceptibility
As the susceptibility of the population living in Cadiz was basically calculated on the basis of
age and gender distribution - due to non-availability of other indicators such as health,
employment, and income data at a finer resolution - the different levels of this factor of
vulnerability show the following distribution.
Most of the sections representing high susceptibility lie in the old town of Cadiz. Some others
can be found in the north western part of Varela and some are distributed throughout the
central part of Puntales. A main hypothesis that was verified during the Indian Ocean
Tsunami (see Birkmann & Fernando 2008; Rofi, A. & S. Doocy 2006; Jayasingam &
Birkmann 2007) posited that the population over 65 and under six years had greater difficulty
in taking flight and seeking rescue in the event of a tsunami since children are usually
dependent on their parents, not aware of the potential threat, and not able to take the necessary
decisions. Old people would be less able to escape to higher levels of buildings and might
have greater difficulty in receiving and understanding warning messages. The gender ratio
combined with the dependency ratio also shows that in these population segments, a high
number of people beyond working age are economically dependent on the male population of
working age. Thus, the economic dependency on the male population is very high and
consequently the susceptibility of the entire segment is higher than in those areas where the
main population is male and of working age. The generally higher employment numbers of
males compared to females is also evident for Spain, which means that higher economic
dependency can be assumed.
In general, the distribution of the levels of susceptibility reflects the fact that a large
proportion of the population of Cadiz is composed of old people that would have greater
difficulty in dealing with a tsunami situation and would have to receive strong economic
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347
support from the working population in order to recover. The current population data does not
allow for factoring in the fluctuations in numbers of people during the winter and summer
periods (the tourist season) as well as the exposure of people at their workplace.
Coping capacity
The lowest coping capacity can be observed in the urban sections in the south-east of Cadiz,
in Zona Franca and Puntales, in the quarters around the city wall separating the old and
new town, and in some sections in the west and north of the old town. The reason for the poor
coping capacity in the south-eastern sections is the low level of education of the inhabitants
and the high number of migrants and illiterates who are unlikely to be able to understand
information on tsunami risks and warnings properly in the case of an acute hazard event. The
reason for the low coping capacity in the sections of Puntales is also poor levels of
education and a high number of children under six years who would have the same difficulties
as those described for migrants and illiterates. The same factors also account for the low
coping capacity in the sections around the border between the old and the new parts of the city
as well as the parts in the old town.
The higher levels of coping capacity throughout most of the sections in the old town can be
explained by the large number of buildings that have more than one level, thus offering
evacuation opportunities (vertical evacuation). In addition, the level of education in this part
of the city is comparatively high and the number of migrants and illiterates is low.
Social dimension of vulnerability
Following the distribution of the levels of a) exposure, b) susceptibility, and c) coping
capacity throughout the city of Cadiz, the following results can be outlined:
Referring to the Probability 5000 scenario, the most vulnerable sections lie in the coastal areas
of the old town, especially in La Via, El Ppulo, and in the north of Centro. This is
due to the high exposure of these sections, the high percentage of old people living in them
(high susceptibility), and a low coping capacity, especially in the sections located in La
Via and the central-northern sector of Centro.
The high vulnerability in the sections in Varela is due to a very low coping capacity
(especially in the sections on the eastern coast of the city) and the high susceptibility in some
of them. The high vulnerability in the section around the Free Port Zone (Zona Franca) is
the result of a very low coping capacity (very low education levels and a high number of
migrants and illiterates).
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348
With respect to the Worst Case scenario, the most vulnerable sections are concentrated in La
Via, the north of Centro, and Puntales. Their high vulnerability compared to the
Probability 5000 scenario is explained by a higher exposure in comparison to the other
sections. Furthermore, the degree of susceptibility and coping capacity is the same as in the
Probability 5000 scenario.
12.5.2 Economic vulnerability / vulnerability of critical
infrastructures
Only the exposure of critical infrastructure (transformer stations for the provision of
electricity, hospitals, hotels and pensions as well as evacuation shelters) has been calculated
when analysing the citys economic vulnerability. Diverse geospatial data such as transformer
stations, hospitals, hotels, and pensions were combined with the modelled inundation
scenarios (Probability 5000 and worst case scenario) using GIS-techniques in order to
establish the potential impact on diverse elements of critical infrastructure. The physical
susceptibility of individual infrastructure elements could not be derived from the existing
data. However, qualitative studies such as expert interviews, laymen interviews, and focus
group discussions carried out during an empirical field trip in March 2009 allow for some
estimations of the coping capacity, which in this case would consist of evacuation plans or
measures of prevention and preparation.
The map for the exposure of hotels, pensions, hospitals, and shelters in the case of the 5000
year probability shows that none of the hospitals or pensions would be at risk. Some of the
hotels that are situated close to the south-western coast of Cadiz and some of the shelters
lying in the western and eastern parts of the old town would be affected. Additionally, hotels,
pensions, and hospitals might be affected indirectly if the tsunami event hit the major power
supply plants. However, compared to the Worst Case scenario, this is a rather minor problem.
In the Worst Case scenario, two hospitals would be exposed (Hospital Universitario Puerta
del Mar, Clnica de la Salud), at least nine of the 16 shelters, and more than half of the
pensions and hotels. These installations would not only lose their ability to function, but could
not serve as shelters in the event of a worst case tsunami. Interviews with representatives of
all three types of infrastructure (hospitals, hotels, and pensions) revealed that none of them
have prepared evacuation plans or measures of prevention and preparedness. Thus, the
vulnerability of these types of critical infrastructure hospitals, in particular - is quite high
and is compounded by a lack of coping capacities.
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349
Regarding the power supply situation, in the Probability 5000 scenario, the only power plant
of the city close to the Free Port Zone would not be affected. Nevertheless, two of the 15
larger transformer stations and 7.5 % of the medium to low level transformer stations would
probably be impacted and inundated. According to the technical director of the electricity
provider of Cadiz, a water level higher than one metre would render each transformer
inoperative. Considering that each of the 371 transformers provides 1- 200 houses with
electricity, an electricity outage could affect a maximum of 5565 houses, with severe
consequences for the basic functions of living.
If the Worst Case scenario became reality, not only would 12 of the larger transformer
stations and 65% of the medium to low level transformer stations collapse, but in addition, the
power plant would be inundated by sea water. That would mean that power outages could
affect around 65-100% of the households in Cadiz.
Although water pipes are not explicitly shown on the map, an interview with the technical
director of the water supply company in Cadiz has revealed that there are only two water
pipes that deliver fresh water to the whole city. Both pipes are installed along the route
between San Fernando and Cadiz. Since this route is only a narrow land connection, a tsunami
hitting this route from the west would probably seriously damage or even destroy both pipes.
In this case, there would only be a fresh water supply for 24 hours, since the water tanks for
emergency situations can only cater for this amount of time.
Although not classified as critical infrastructure, the possibility of a larger break in the
functionality of the port of Cadiz poses an additional threat to the city. The importance of the
port of Cadiz can be illustrated by the fact that in the year 2007, the port possessed real estate
with a value of 239 million Euros. Its working capital was 16 million Euros and the net
amount of business totalled 21 million Euros. In addition, about five merchant vessels (around
66,000 tons) entered the port each day and around 1884 passengers transited due to the arrival
and departure of cruises that sail to other European as well as Latin American and North
American coasts. About 3918 employees are directly dependent on the functioning of services
provided by the port. These figures underline even further the serious economic and social
consequences that a large tsunami could imply, including the disruption of the port activities.
Institutional awareness and lack of preparedness
Besides the revealed levels of vulnerability using socio-economic and demographic data and
qualitative assessments the research highlights a very low awareness of tsunami risk in the
city of Cadiz and in local government authorities.
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350
In the risk guide provided by the Civil Protection Agency, the risk of inundation caused by
tsunamis is classified as practically non-existent in this area of the globe. Additionally, the
chapter on seismic risks includes one paragraph about tsunamis, but it just describes their
genesis in general, and no specific information is given that can be used as a real basis to
develop appropriate preparedness and coping strategies (see also Aparicio 2002, p. 2).
The General Urban Development Plan (Plan General de Ordenacin Urbanstica) developed
by the local government (Ayuntamiento de Cadiz) in 2007, also includes a chapter on natural
and technological risks. However, the risk of inundation caused by tsunamis which would
bring about massive destruction is not included. Furthermore, interviews carried out with
local people as well as expert interviews confirmed that the potential threat of a tsunami is not
present in the minds of most residents and officials. In the cases where they knew about past
events, such as the tsunami in 1755, they were not aware of the present risk or of possible
signs to identify a tsunami, and even less of appropriate measures of prevention or
vulnerability reduction. Interviews with representatives of schools, the tourist sector, the port
authority and public and private companies showed that no risk or emergency plans or
educational measures exist with respect to tsunami risk awareness and tsunami response.
Overall, the interviews conducted also demonstrate the absence of a local perception of
tsunami risk, and that organizational and institutional strategies for risk reduction do not yet
include tsunamis. Therefore, the so-called institutional dimension of vulnerability is also an
important aspect that needs to receive more attention in the future in order to create a basis for
effective preparedness strategies.
12.6 Results and outlook
The hazard and vulnerability assessment of Cadiz regarding tsunamis revealed that although
the probability of a tsunami is relatively low, its consequences particularly considering the
Worst Case scenario possibility - would have severe negative consequences for the city and
its inhabitants. The systematic analysis of the key components of vulnerability: a) exposure,
b) susceptibility, and c) coping capacities, revealed that some parts of the population and
some areas within the city are clearly more vulnerable than others. That means the assessment
also allows for identifying priority areas where future development should consider tsunamis
as one of the risk factors stemming from the sea. It is important to note that until now there
has been no mention of tsunamis as a possible hazard in the coastal region. Moreover, the
awareness and also the knowledge of what a tsunami means is very limited among the
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351
population potentially exposed to them. Furthermore, the assessment criteria used emphasize
that measures for improving coping capacities such as vertical evacuation options could
become part of strategic future urban development planning. However, to date, these
measures or aspects have not been taken into account. Additionally, the survey and the
underlying framework also shows that the mapping of potential inundation areas for tsunami
hazards is important, but not sufficient if the aim is to develop a more comprehensive risk and
vulnerability reduction strategy. Besides physical inundation, vulnerability also depends - as
shown by the selected indicators - on the social composition of the population exposed and
their response capacities in terms of the ability to cope with the potential impact of a tsunami.
In this context, one is confronted by the fact that in a European city like Cadiz, a quantitative
vulnerability assessment is hampered by a lack of appropriate data. While at the sub-national
scale additional data for important socio-economic indicators such as unemployment, etc.
existed, this data was not available at a fine spatial resolution to cover, for example, parts of
the city of Cadiz. Therefore, it is recommended to combine quantitative and qualitative
approaches within a vulnerability assessment. This would allow the vulnerability to tsunami
risk to be captured in a more comprehensive way than just by mapping the exposure.
Moreover, the issue of critical infrastructure, where data could be obtained for power plants,
middle and low level transformer stations, and electricity lines, also shows that a potential
tsunami could cut off 5565 households (based on the Probability 5000 scenario) from
electricity within seconds. This could entail particularly severe consequences for other critical
elements of infrastructure such as the piped water supply or the ability of hospitals to run
normally. Therefore, tsunamis even if the probability of occurrence is relatively low
should be considered within the further development and renewal of critical infrastructure,
particularly since such infrastructure is critical in emergencies and crisis situations. In
addition, it is characterized by lack of mobility and high cost.
Lastly, it is worth pointing out that the discussion of the assessment results in Cadiz has also
allowed the identification of the first measures and actions required to reduce risk and
vulnerability. During an expert meeting conducted in March 2009 in Cadiz, the different
vulnerable sections of the city, the root causes of their vulnerability, as well as potential
measures to reduce vulnerability were discussed within a focused group discussion.
Interestingly, the key measures that participants and experts proposed should be taken as a
first step do not require large financial resources, but mainly encompass information and
communication as well the identification of the most critical infrastructure (see Table 1).
Furthermore, the discussion revealed that the evacuation of the city would not be an option for
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352
Cadiz, since the only two routes leading out of the city (N-443 and CA-33) could only
accommodate the exit of 4,000 cars per hour, while the total number of cars in Cadiz is about
50,000. Thus, the only possibility of rapid evacuation is a vertical evacuation within buildings
that have more than one floor and that are constructed in a suitable fashion. This is an
important message that must be communicated to the people via all possible information
channels, starting in schools and through the media. In addition, evacuation simulations and
exercises should be carried out on a regular basis in schools and other important public and
private institutions. In this regard, lessons could be learned from countries in South East Asia
where awareness raising campaigns and school training on tsunami risk have been conducted
in every country, e.g. Indonesia (Taubenboeck et al. 2009). The experts concluded that these
measures are relatively easy to implement and require only limited funding. Conversely, it
was admitted by local stakeholders that more costly and intense activities would probably be
difficult to put in place due to the lack of governmental (and therefore financial) support
because of the high level of uncertainty and the infrequency of tsunamis in Cadiz. However,
vulnerability maps clearly indicate that different features of vulnerability should be
considered and that priorities can be defined in terms of improving the situation, particularly
in the most vulnerable parts of the city with respect to social groups and critical infrastructure.
The main purpose of this assessment and the information it has developed is to help local
decision-makers and civil protection managers to approach the people in greatest need of
direct protection before an adverse event occurs.
Particularly in the context of the further development of the NEAMTWS (http://www.ioc-
tsunami.org/content/view/35/1035/), it needs to be underlined that besides the warning
infrastructure and the detection of geomorphological faults likely to cause tsunami, people-
centred early warning also requires appropriate information about the people and regions
potentially affected, their vulnerability, and response capacities. In this regard, the maps
presented in this study provide an essential basis to better understand the susceptibility and
response capacity of communities and cities exposed to potential tsunami threats in Europe.
Acknowledgements
This research work has been conducted within the framework of the TRANSFER (Tsunami
Risk and Strategies for the European Region) project. The project was funded by the Sixth
Framework Programme of the European Commission. The authors are very thankful to all
colleagues and for the valuable comments of the reviewers.
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353
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Fig. 1. Adapted BBC framework for the social dimension of vulnerability
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357
Table 1: Root causes of vulnerability and possible measures of prevention in different sectors
Elements of
Vulnerability
Demography Tourism Education Urban
Structure
Infrastructure Planning Communication
Aspects Elderly citizens Lack of knowledge
about the risk
Different
behaviour of
children
Different
geological
levels within
the city
Infrastructure not
adapted/ prepared
1) Lack of risk
maps and plans
2) Lack of plans of
shelters
Low probability and
high uncertainty with
respect to tsunami
occurrence
Principal Causes Aging population Tourism sector
interested in
ignoring the risk
Existing plans
not appropriate
(e.g.
evacuation)
Natural causes
Possible
Measures of
Prevention
1) Information in
various languages
provided by tourist
offices
2) Information
tourist centre staff
3) Monitoring
regulations at local,
regional, and
national level
1) Adopt
evacuation
plans (legally)
2) Educate and
train teachers
and parents
3) Simulations
and exercises
Define non-
floodable areas
of the city/
shelter on
higher ground
1) Hermetic
protection (at low
cost)
2) Identify critical
infrastructure and
adapt it
Regular revisions
and updates and
evacuation
exercises in the
most important
institutions
1) Regular education
and communication
2) Identify critical
institutions
Responsible
Institution
Civil protection
Education
centres
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358
Table 2. Total number of people and area exposed for probability scenario 5000 years
Total number of people and area exposed
for probability scenario 5000 years
Exposure of Number % of all
People 7684 5,9
Area in [ha] 83,32 11,7
Table 3. Total number of people and area exposed for worst case scenario
Total number of people and area exposed
for worst case
Exposure of Number % of all
People 79854 61,2
Area in [ha] 83,32 73,7