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CHAPTER-II
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 GENERAL
This chapter presents a detailed review of literature regarding black spot investigation
procedures, models for prediction of Road Accidents, and remedial measures to minimize the
accidental rates.
2.2 METHODS FOR IDENTIFICATION OF BLACK SPOTS
To make the road safer, it is important to identify the right site for safety improvement, if not,
resources can be wasted on sites that are incorrectly identified as potentially unsafe but sites
that are truly unsafe can go untreated and remain unsafe. Therefore, black spot identifications
an essential step for black spot improvement program.
The technique to determine a black spot location varies from place to place. Methodologies
vary from the simple flag sites that have high-accident records to the more complicated ones
of which the expected number of accidents is estimated and potential for safety
improvements is determined. The following subsections discuss the method to identify black
spots.
2.2.1 Number of accidents method
The Crash Frequency Method summarizes the number of crashes at location and the stretches
having the more number of crashes are taken as accident prone stretches. The main advantage
to this method is that it is simple to use and doesnt require additional information beyond
number and location of crashes. Location are ranked by descending crash frequency and
those with more than a predetermined number of crashes are classified as high-crash
locations to be further scrutinized for statistical significance. It is useful initially to identify
locations for further analysis and ranking. The main disadvantage is that exposure (traffic
volume) is not accounted for. Without being able to account for variations in traffic volume,
locations that have high crash frequency due to high traffic volumes rather than some
deficiency may be misidentified as high crash locations.

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2.2.2 Accident density method
The Crash Density Method is closely related to the crash frequency method, the crash
density method summarizes the number of crashes per mile for highway sections. Sections
are defined as a minimum length of roadway with consistent characteristics, with the
minimum distance used frequency being one mile. Locations are ranked by descending crash
density and those with more than a predetermined density of crashes are classified as high-
crash locations to be further scrutinized for statistical significance.
Crash Density = the number of crashes per mile for Highway Sections
2.2.3 Accident rate method
The crash rate method does account for both exposure and the total number of crashes. For
links, crash rate is a function of the number of crashes, traffic volume, and the length of the
segment. At nodes, crash rate is a function of the number of crashes and daily entering
vehicles. Crash rate is typically expressed as the number of crashes per million vehicle miles
travelled for road segments and number of crashes per million daily entering vehicles for
intersections. Second, each site is ranked according to the crash rate. For nodes and links up
to 0.6 miles, the crash rate is calculated using the following equation
Crash rate/MEV = (Number of crashes/DEV) * 1000000/ (n*365days/year) (2.1)
Where,
MEV = Million Entering Vehicles
DEV = Daily Entering Vehicles for nodes or average daily traffic (ADT) for links.
n = Analysis Time Period, generally taken as 5 years
For links 0.6 miles or longer, the DEV is determined using the following equation.
DEV = ABS (Link length/0.3) * DEV (2.2)
Where,
ABS = Absolute Value
The site that has the largest crash rate receives the top ranking. The same implication of a tie
applies to this ranking as well. For locations where their traffic volumes are unknown the
ranking of zero is assigned.


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2.2.4 Severity index method
Weighted severity index method assigns weight to different types of accident and their
weighted severity total is being calculated. This value ranges from 0 to 100, the stretches that
are having 90 or more are taken as accident prone stretches. Under the Weighted severity
index method, causalities have been divided into three groups
Fatal
Grievous Injury
Minor Injury
Non Injury
Based on the analysis of cost of accident fatalities, Weightage is given to type of accident.
WST
(j)
= W
i
* A
i
(2.3)
WSI
(j)
= WST
(j)
* K / PCU
(j)
(2.4)
Where,
WST
(j)
= Weightage Severity total of j
th
stretch
A
i
= Number of accidents of type: Fatal, Grevious injury, Minor injury,
Non injury
W
i
= Weightage of i
th
type of accident
WSI
(j)
= Weightage Severity Index of j
th
stretch
PCU
(j)
= Traffic volume on j
th
stretch
K = constant factor, 10,000
2.2.5 GIS Applications
Since accident is spatially distributed in nature, use of Geographic Information System
(GIS) and database software will provide the capability to store data, update data, retrieve
data, compare data and spatially display the data. These modern computer technologies allow
black spot map to be electronically generated from a well-designed accident database.
Computer record systems can also produce rankings of high-accident locations based on
either total accidents occurring or accident rates



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2.2.6 Empirical Bayes Method
Hauer and Persuad (1984) suggest an Empirical Bayes(EB) method for identification of high
crash locations. The EB method attempts overcome the difficulties with some of the
convectional techniques. The EB controls the randomness of crash data by using an estimate
of the long term mean number of crashes at a location. This method is used for predicting
crashes in the future and then ranking based on the predicted number of crashes. The broad
techniques for the identification of black spot may be categorized as
a) Statistical methods
b) Bio medical engineering approach
c) Engineering methods
d) Subjective assessment techniques
2.3 MODELLING METHODS FOR CRASH-FREQUENCY DATA
The following techniques are available for accident modelling
Multiple Linear Regression Model
Poisson Model
Negative Binominal Model
Multilevel Analysis
2.3.1 Linear Regression Model
The form of a linear regression model is given as,
Yi = a0 + a1 X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 ++ anXn ( 2.5)
Yi = no of accidents at the road section i
X1, X2, X3, Xn are input parameters like roadway width, shoulder width, section
length, pavement condition etc.
a0, a1, a2, an are regression coefficients.
2.3.2 Exponential Regression Model
The form of a exponential regression model is given as,
Yi = exp (a0 + a1 X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 ++ anXn) (2.6)
Yi = Number of accident at Road section i
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X1, X2, X3, Xn are input parameters like, roadway width, shoulder width, flow
speed, section length, pavement condition, etc.
a0, a1, a2, an are regression coefficients.
2. 3.3 Poisson Regression Model
Poisson model approximates rare-event count data, such as accident occurrence. Miaou et al
(1992) employed Poisson regression techniques to model accidents. Poisson models assume
that vehicle accidents are independent and follow Poisson distribution. Consider the number
of accidents occurring per year at various road sections. By Poisson regression model, the
probability of a road section i having yi accidents per year (where yi is a non-negative
integer) can be computed as

i
y
i
i
i
e
P y
y
( )
!



= == =
(2.7)
Where P(yi) = The probability of occurrence of y accidents for a given time period on
roadway segment yi = The number of accidents for a given time for a roadway segment i;
i = The mean value of accident occurred for a given time period, i.e. Poisson parameter for
section i.
Poisson regression models are estimated by specifying the Poisson parameter i as a function
of explanatory variables. The most common relationship between explanatory variables and
the Poisson parameter is the log-linear model,
i = Exposure x exp (jXij) (2.8)
Exposure = Traffic exposure for road segment i
Xij = Vector of independent variables for roadway segment i;
j = Vector of coefficient for the independent variables
In this formulation, the expected number of accidents per period is given by
E(yi) = Exposure x exp(jXij) (2.9)
One of the limitation of Poissons regression model is the variance of the dependent variable
is equal to the mean.
2.3.4 Negative Binomial Regression Model
The negative binomial model is derived by rewriting such that, for each observation i,
i = Exposure x exp(jXij + i) (2.10)
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Where exp(i ) is a gamma-distributed error term with mean 1 and variance 2. The addition
of this term allows the variance to differ from the mean as below

i i i i i
Var y E y E y E E y E y
2
( ) [ ][1 [ ]] [ [ ] [ ]] = + = + = + = + = + = + = + = +
(2.11)
i
y
i i i
i
i
P y
y
exp( exp( ))
( )
!

= == =
(2.12)
The Poisson regression model is regarded as a limiting case of the negative binomial
regression model as approaches zero, which means that the selection between these two
models is dependent on the value of . The parameter is often referred to as the over
dispersion parameter.
2.4 STUDIES ON ACCIDENT MODELLING
Dahee Hong, Youngkyun Lee (2000), considered study of accident on National ways and
rural ways in the urban areas of Cheolla province in Korea, by considering accident data from
2001 to 2003 and accident prediction models were developed by road types using multiple
regression. They found that more number of accidents are occurred at the intersections in the
urban areas. The number of intersections has the largest effect on accidents in case of two
lane roads in the urban areas.
The suggested accident prediction model for Two Lane roads:
Y =0.174+ 1.164 * (X1) + 0.835 * (X2) (2.13)
Where,
Y = Number of Accidents (accident/km),
X1 = Number of Intersections (unit/km)
X2 = Number of Pedestrian Traffic Signals.
The suggested accident prediction model for four lane roads in non existence of median
barrier
Y = 0.920 + 3.135* (X1) (2.14)
Where,
Y = Number of Accidents (accident/km),
X1 = Number of Intersections (unit/km)
More than four lane roads in existence of median barrier:
Where,
Y= 0.729 + 1.757* ( X1) (2.15)
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Stamatiadis and Deacon (1995) and Hing et al (2003), developed Multiple Logistic
Regression Model. Logistic regression belongs to the group of regression methods for
describing the relationship between explanatory variables and a discrete response variable. A
binary logistic regression is proper to use when the dependent is a dichotomy (an event
happened or not) and can be applied to test association between a dependent variable and the
related potential factors, to rank the relative importance of independents, and to assess
interaction effects. Binary logistic regression is used in this study since the dependent
variable Y (accident classification) can only take on two values: Y = 1 for rear-end accidents
and Y = 0 for non-rear-end accidents. The probability that a rear-end accident will occur or
not is modelled as logistic distribution is shown.

(2.16)

The logit of the multiple logistic regression model (Link Function) is given as
(2.17)

Where,
(x) = is conditional probability of a rear-end accident, which is equal to the number of rear-
end accidents divided by the total number of accidents.
xn = are independent variables (driver/vehicle/environment factors).
The independent variables can be either categorical or continuous, or a mixture of both. Both
main effects and interactions can generally be accommodated.
n = is model coefficient,
which directly determines odds ratio involved in the rear-end accident. The odds of an event
are defined as the probability of the outcome event occurring divided by the probability of the
event not occurring. The odds ratio that is equal to exp(n) tells the relative amount by which
the odds of the outcome increase (or greater than 1.0) or decrease (or less than 1.0) when the
value of the predictor value is increased by 1.0 units. Especially for categorical independent
variables, the odds ratios represent the accident risk comparison among different levels of
drivers/vehicles/environments.
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Wass et al (1983) and Kronbak and Greibe (1994), have investigated Generalised Linear
Models based on different flow functions of some with flows for cyclists and moped drivers
as well. The general conclusion was that the models shown below are suitable for Danish
conditions, and since these new models for urban roads were to be used along with existing
models for rural roads, it was decided to use the same model structure here as well
The model structure for road links
(2.18)
Where E() is the expected number of accidents (accidents per year per km),
N the motor vehicle traffic flow (AADT),
x variables describing road geometry or environment of the road
a, p, j are estimated parameters.
For junctions:
(2.19)
where E() is the expected number of accidents (per year),
Npri the incoming motor vehicle traffic flow (AADT) from the primary direction,
Nsec the incoming motor vehicle traffic flow (AADT) from the secondary direction,
x variables describing road geometry,
a, p1, p2, j are estimated parameters.
For non-signalised junctions, the primary direction represents the two arms where traffic has
the right of way. For signalised junctions, the primary direction at the junction represents the
two arms with the highest traffic volumes. It cannot be rejected that the primary direction in
signalized junctions represents two arms which are not opposite in the junction. This will be
very seldom though.
Ali P. Akgungor and Osman Yldz (2001) used fractional factorial method for the sensitivity
analysis of accident prediction model. The evaluation of sensitivity analysis indicated that
average daily traffic (ADT), lane width (W), width of paved shoulder (PA), median (H) and
their interactions (i.e., ADTW, ADTPA and ADTH) have significant effects on number of
accidents. The effects due to each parameter and parameter interactions are estimated using
the following equation:
Ej = Sij(Xi)/Nj (2.20)

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in which Ej represents the effect of the jth factor (i.e., in jth column), n the total number of
experimental runs (i.e., n = 8), Sij represents the sign in row i and column j, Xi represents the
value of the prediction variable obtained from the ith experimental run and Nj is the number
of + signs in column j. The sensitivity of analysis of the selected accident prediction model
is defined by
A=0.0019(ADT)0.882(0.879)w(0.919)PA(0.932)UP(1.232)H*0.882)T1 (1.322)T2 (2.21)
in which A is the number of run-off-road, head on, opposite direction sideswipe, and same-
direction sideswipe accidents per mile per year, ADT the two-directional average daily
traffic, W the lane width in feet, PA the width of paved shoulder in feet, UP the width of
unpaved (gravel, turf, earth) shoulder in feet, H the median roadside hazard rating for the
highway segment, measured subjectively on a scale from 1 (least hazardous) to 7 (most
hazardous), T1 = 1 for flat terrain, 0 otherwise. T2 = 1 for mountainous terrain, 0 otherwise.
From this analysis the authors had found that ADTW, ADTPA and ADTH, as two-
parameter interactions, are detected to be outliers which have major effects on the model.
Fajaruddin Mustakim et al (2008) studied on black spots and develop an accident prediction
model by using multiple linear regression analysis. The study area was Federal Route (FT50)
Batu Pahat Ayer Hitam. The regression model was
In (APW) 0.5 = 0.0212( AP ) + 0.0007 (HTV 0.75 + GAP 1.25) + 0.0210 ( 85th PS) (2.22)
Where,
APW = accident point weightage
AP = number of access points per kilometer
HTV = hourly traffic volume
Gap = amount of time, between the end of one vehicle and the beginning of the next in
second.
85th PS = 85th percentile speed
The model has R-square value of 0.9987.
The results of this paper have shown that the existence of a larger major junction density, an
increase in traffic volume and vehicle speed in Federal Route 50 are the contributors to traffic
accidents. Reduction of vehicle speed, access point, traffic volume and gap are likely to have
an influential effect on the road traffic accidents.

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Nassar and Nassar et al (2005) developed a Poisson regression model based on the Ontario
data.
This model is of the form
E(m)i = ADTL1.242 LEN0.696 exp(0.1955 LN 0.1775 SHW + 0.2716 MT2 + 0.5669 TS -
0.1208 PTC 0.0918 Y91) ( 2.23)
Where
E(m)i = expected accident frequencies on road section i,
ADTL = annual average daily traffic (AADT) per lane in thousands of vehicles on road
section i,
LEN = length of road section i (km),
LN = number of lanes on road section i,
SHW = shoulder width of road section i (m),
MT2 = median type two of road section i (0 = painted, 1 = barrier),
TS = traffic signal on road section i (0 = no, 1 = yes),
PTC = pattern type commuter on road section i (0 = combined, 1 = commuter), and Y91 =
year 1991 (0 = 92, 1 = 91).
Statistical prediction models, such as the Poisson regression models, frequently are plagued
by poor specification. Information on factors affecting variations in accident potential at a
given location is often incomplete and is insufficient to adequately explain differences in the
potential for accidents from year to year. When such models are applied to a given accident
database, they often lead to over dispersion error.
This accident model is useful and applicable when the independent variables with respect to
which the proposed analysis is desired.
Tarek Sayed and Felipe Rodriguez (2003) developed Generalized Linear Model structure
relating accidents to the product of traffic flows entering the intersection. This type of model
has been shown to be more suitable to represent the relationships between accidents and
traffic flows at intersections. In this model structure, accident frequency is a function of the
product of traffic flows raised to a specific power (usually less than 1). That is,
(2.24)
where
E() = expected accident frequency,
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V1 = major road traffic volume [annual average daily traffic (AADT)],
V2 = minor road traffic volume (AADT), and
a0, a1, a2 = model parameters.
Kulmala, Maher and Summersgill (2002), proposed to model these additional variables along
with traffic flows as follows:
(2.25)
Where xj represents any additional variable and bj is a model parameter.
Andrew P. Tarko (2000), developed a Safety Prediction Model for links and nodes. Use of
Safety Performance Function (SPF) seems to be the most reliable method of predicting future
safety at individual road intersections and links. SPFs connect various roadway and traffic
characteristics with crash frequency and various levels of severity. The most common
structures of the models for links (segments) and nodes (intersections) are as follows:

where
a = expected annual number of crashes of certain severity;
E = exposure to risk function;
L = segment length;
Q = annual average daily traffic (AADT) on the segment;
Q1 = AADT on the major road of the intersection;
Q2 = AADT on the minor road of the intersection;
X1, . . . , Xn = road, traffic, and other characteristics; and
, , 1, n = model parameters.
SPFs are expected to be used in the forthcoming Highway Safety Manual to predict and
evaluate roadway safety.
Ziad Sawalha(2003), stated that the mathematical form used for any Accident Prediction
Model (APM) should satisfy two conditions. First, it must yield logical results. This means
that (a) it must not lead to the prediction of a negative number of accidents and (b) it must
ensure a prediction of zero accident frequency for zero values of the exposure variables,
which for road sections or section length and Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT).
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The second condition that must be satisfied by the model form is that, in order to use
generalized linear regression in the modeling procedure, there must exist a known link
function that can linearize this form for the purpose of coefficient estimation. These
conditions are satisfied by a model form that consists of the product of powers of the
exposure measures multiplied by an exponential incorporating the remaining explanatory
variables. Such a model form can be linearized by the logarithm link function. Expressed
mathematically, the model form was
E (Y) = a0 * La1 * Va2 * exp bj xj (2.26)
Where,
E (Y) = predicted accident frequency
L = section length
V = section AADT
xj = any variable additional to L and V
a0, a1, a2, bj = model parameters.

2.5 CASE STUDY
Analysis of Road Accidents in Thiruvananthapuram City has been conducted by Sony
Vincent in 2008. After detailed analysis of data collected, the dangerous routes of
Thiruvananthapuram road net work which need to be improved were identified. Major part of
the study stretch runs through plain terrain with few curves. It passes through a highly
commercial region of Thiruvananthapuram city and hence there are numbers of side roads
meeting the stretch at frequent intervals. The stretch is of 15 km long and is a part of NH-
47.The entire stretch was divided into ten sections of 1.5 km each. The various data collected
for the study stretch include accident data, road geometric data, and speed of vehicles (kph),
pedestrian volume (no. of pedestrians per hour) and traffic volume (pcu/hr). From the
accident information collected, a preliminary analysis shows the trend of total number of
accidents and the rear end accidents that occurred in the study stretch over a period of 9 years
from 2000 to 2008. The collected data were statistically analyzed to evaluate the effect of the
selected parameters on accidents. The relationship between the accidents and various factors
were also given. The data was analyzed by using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social
Sciences) software. The number of accidents was taken as the dependent variable and width
of the road, alignment of the road, number of side roads and traffic volume were taken as
independent variables and models developed are given.
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2.6 ROAD SAFETY AUDIT
Road Safety Audit (RSA) is a process in which experts attempt to identify potentially
dangerous features in the highway environment. Road safety audits are an efficient, cost
effective and proactive approach to improving transportation safety. It is provided that RSA
has the potential to save lives and ultimately money. Initiated in Great Britain (1980), RSA is
well developed in countries like Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Malaysia and
Singapore. It is a varying stages of implementation in other nations like Thailand, India,
South Africa and Bangladesh.
Many countries had developed the road safety audit procedures. Even though, the main
methodology adopted is almost same in all countries, they had developed their own checklist
for RSA according to the local conditions. It is a question why all road authorities around the
world are not practicing this process. Therefore there is a every need to develop its own RSA
methodology in a country like India where road traffic accidents are assuming epidemic
proportions.
2.6.1 Audit Process
Road safety audit is tool to prevent road crashes by identifying potential safety problems for
corrective action considerations. It shall consider safety under all operating conditions. The
RSA is also focused only on accident prevention and does not usually address the separate
issue of accident reduction. The Institute of Transportation Engineers (1996), South Africa
Road Safety Audit Guidelines (1999), Australian Guidelines (2000) and the Canadian
Guidelines (1999) has developed the RSA into the following five stages:
The five stages of Road Safety Audit are:
Stage 1: Feasibility and Planning stage
Stage 2: Draft ( Preliminary) Design stage.
Stage 3: Detailed Design stage
Stage 4: Construction and Pre-Opening stage
Stage 5: Operational stage or RSA Existing Road
Stage 1 Audit: The Feasibility/Planning Stage
During the stage 1 audit, problems related to the overall concept for a project, road network
safety implications, route options, intersection and interchanges types and locations will be
identified. The audit will also consider the safety implications of strategic issues such as
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access control and provisions for different groups of road users, particularly the vulnerable
ones.
Stage 2 Audit: The Preliminary/Draft Design Stage
Many of the traffic engineering features are usually established during the preliminary design
stage. These features such as the cross-section elements, intersection/interchange layout,
traffic control options, horizontal and vertical alignment, to name a few, would have
significant effect on the safety performance of the project. RSA conducted at this stage would
help ensure that unsafe features are not locked into the road design.
Stage 3 Audit: The Detailed Design Stage
The RSA at this stage would help identify those aspects in which safety has not been given
high enough weighting in comparison to other competing factors. Potential hazards such as
those arising from improper combination of horizontal and vertical alignments as well as
other undesirable features associated with traffic signing, traffic control, street lighting,
drainage, landscaping and the like would be addressed during this stage of the safety audit.
Stage 4 Audit: Construction and Pre-Opening stage
The stage 4 audit is normally done prior to the practical completion of a project just before
the opening to traffic. It involves site inspections during the day and at night to observe
details on actual placement of items such as guardrails, street lighting, traffic signing,
landscaping and to check that the needs of respective road users meet the desired safety
standards. This is practically the final stage to correct any deficiencies before the road is
opened to traffic.
Stage 5 Audit: Operational stage or RSA of Existing Road
The stage 5 audit can be performed on either a newly completed road opened to traffic or on
an existing road which is earmarked for upgrading. Auditing at this stage will help identify
safety problems that arises due to normal wear and tear from traffic operation as well as
hazards associated with maturing landscape that may cause obstruction to traffic signs and
impaired sight distance and visibility.
2.6.2 Benefits of Road Safety Audit
Some of the possible benefits of the Road Safety Audit are as follows:
Audits were found to be provide safety beyond established standards
Identify additional improvements that can be incorporated into the projects
Create consistency among all projects
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Encourage personnel to think about safety in the course of their normal activities,
throughout all stages of a project
Invite interdisciplinary output
Enhance the quality of field reviews
Provide learning experiences for the audit team and design team members
Provide feedback to highway designers that they can apply to other projects as
appropriate
Provide feedback that helps to affirm actions taken and to work through outstanding
issues
Ensure the high quality is maintained throughout a projects life cycle
Safer new highways through crash prevention and severity reduction.
Safer road networks.
2.7 MEASURES FOR TRAFFIC IMPROVEMENT
The main objective of the any corridor is to improve the vehicular flow. There are some
transportation system management actions which gives suitable solutions for improvements
in vehicular traffic flow and to minimize the accident rate. To analyses the existing traffic
characteristics the following procedure has been recommended by traffic system
management.
Improvements of the intersection geometrics reduce the conflicting areas and improve
the road safety.
Designs of light controlled traffic signals to minimize the traffic delays and increase
the traffic flow at intersections.
Segregation of fast and slow moving traffic along the midblock which reduces the
interface problems.
By improving parking situations and by providing bus-bays, side traffic interference
into the carriage way can be avoided.
By providing pedestrian crossings facilities to protect their right-of-way which can
reduces the accidents.
Provisions of road traffic signs for advanced warning and information to the road
users.
By providing various amenities all along the corridors particularly the service road
facility, the lightning system, controlled access to the adjoining property, road side
furniture etc.
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2.8 SPECIFIC SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The specific scope of study of Tirumala roads includes the
Collection of Accident data
To identify the Accident prone stretch
Investigations of Accident prone stretches
Remedial measures for safer roads.
To develop model for down ghat road, up ghat road and hill roads of Tirumala
To conduct road safety Audit and recommendations for identified Accident prone
stretches
2.9 SUMMARY
This chapter presented the review of various black spot identification, methods used for
model development for prediction of road accidents, Road safety audit and measures for
traffic improvement.