Relevant and irrelevant information Operation Budgeting Time Value of Money Cost of Capital Capital Budgeting Present Value Calculation Accounting Rate of Return Notes From Exams
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Relevant Information in Operational Decision Making
Differential Cost is the difference in total cost between two alternatives.
Differential Revenue is the difference in total revenue between two alternatives
Incremental Costs are additional costs or reduced benefits generated by the proposed alternative
Incremental Benefits are the additional revenues or reduced costs generated by the proposed alternative
Opportunity Cost is the maximum available selection that is passed up, (Due to limited resources)
Outlay Cost is the actual Pay out cash or the cash disbursement.
Mutually Exclusive Projects happened when a selection of one project block the selection of the other project due to limited resources.
Financial Benefits is the amount of difference between the project I select and the next available project
Irrelevant Information at make of buy decision, they will Not Affect the decision Any Unavoidable costs are irrelevant cost Any Sunk Costs are irrelevant cost Any Depreciation is irrelevant cost The Book Value is irrelevant cost The Disposal value is relevant cost (because it is an expected future inflow that usually differs among alternatives)
Avoidable Costs are costs that will not continue to be ongoing if the ongoing operations are terminated or cancels or changed .
Unavoidable Costs are costs that will continue even if the operations stopped.
Common Costs are the cost of facilities and services shared between users.
A Limiting Factor or scarce resource restricts or constrains the production or sale of a product or service , this include labor hours and machine hours that limit production (and hence sales) in manufacturing firms .
The book value of equipment is not a relevant consideration in deciding whether to replace the equipment
Depreciation is the periodic allocation of the cost of equipment.
The equipments book value (or net book value) is the original cost less accumulated depreciation
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Cases Calculations
Opportunity Cost Calculations (sell a machine or use it in production)
When we have multiple selections, first check the effect of each one of the Contribution margin . Either Direct Selling Cost for assets Profit , calculated by (Revenue Outlay Cost) Financial benefits before Opportunity cost Opportunity cost is the next available maximum
Net Financial Benefits is the different between the correct selection profit and opportunity cost
Make of Buy Decision Calculations
Item Make Buy Perches Cost X Direct Material X Direct Labor X Variable Factory Overhead X Fixed factory overhead (Avoidable by Not Making) X Fixed factory overhead (unavoidable or irrelevant) X X Total 170 180
Make or Buy and the Use of Facilities Calculations
Item Make Buy and Leave idle Buy and Rent Buy and Reuse Rent Revenue 25000 Contribution margin from other products 55000 Variable cost per unite 170 180 180 180 Net Relevant costs (170) (180) (155) (125)
Given: Rent is 25000$ , Contribution margin if we produce other product 55000$
Any unavoidable or irrelevant costs, to be excluded from calculations When Calculate delta between make and buy dont include any unavoidable costs
Incremental costs : Incremental cost of one unit is: The cost associated with one additional unit of production. Also called marginal cost. (Cost include Direct Labor, Direct material, Variable Overhead) but NOT fixed overhead Cost. cost per unite , no overhead included
Choose the Decision with the less total cost
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Deletion or Addition of Products, Services, or Departments Calculations
Department Store Shutdown (Assume Department 1 Closer) Calculations
Item Total Before Change Department 1 Dropping Effect Total After Change Sales 1,900 1,000 900 Variable Expenses (VC) 1,420 800 620 Contribution Margins 480 200 280 Fixed Expenses Avoidable 265 150 115 Profit contribution to unavoidable costs 215 50 165 Fixed Expenses unavoidable 180 0 180 Operation Income (Sales VC FC) 35 50 (15)
Department Store Shutdown (Assume Department 1 Closer and Add new department) Calculations
Item Total Before Change Department 1 Dropping Effect Add new Department Total After Change Sales 1,900 1,000 500 1,400 Variable Expenses (VC) 1,420 800 350 970 Contribution Margins 480 200 150 430 Fixed Expenses Avoidable 265 150 70 185 Profit contribution to unavoidable costs 215 50 80 245 Fixed Expenses unavoidable 180 0 0 180 Operation Income (Sales VC FC) 35 50 80 65
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Limited Resources Calculations (Calculate the Contribution margin per Machine Hour (CM/Hour) . the higher the better
Item Product A Product B Selling price per unite 80 120 Variable costs per unite 60 84 Contribution margin per pair 20 $ 36 $ Contribution margin ratio 25% 30 % Machine Time 10,000 Hours Production Rate 10 Unites / Hour 5 / Hour Production Maximum Capacity 100,000 Unites 50,000 Unites Maximum Contribution margin 2,000,000 1,800,000
Equipment Replacement Calculations
Suppose a $10,000 machine with a 10-year life span has depreciation of $1,000 per year. At the end of 6 years, accumulated depreciation is 6 x $1,000 = $6,000, and the book value is $10,000 $6,000 = $4,000.
Keep or Replace the Old Machine? Old Machine Replacement Machine Original cost $10,000 $8,000 irrelevant / relevant Useful life in years 10 10 Relevant Current age in years 6 0 Relevant Useful life remaining in years 4 4 Relevant Accumulated depreciation 6,000 0 Irrelevant Book value 4,000 N/A Irrelevant Disposal value (in cash) now 2,500 N/A Relevant Disposal value in 4 years 0 0 Relevant Annual cash operating costs 5,000 3,000 Relevant
The most widely misunderstood facet of replacement decision making is the role of the book value of the old equipment in the decision. We often call the book value a sunk cost, which is really just another term for historical or past cost, a cost that the company has already incurred and, therefore, is irrelevant to the decision-making process. Nothing can change what has already happened. In deciding whether to replace or keep existing equipment, we must consider the relevance of four commonly encountered items.
Cost Comparison Keep Replace Cash operating costs 20,000 (4*5000) 12,000 (4*3000) Disposal value (2,500) New machine acquisition cost 8,000 Total costs 20,000 $ 17,500 $ Prefer to produce Product A , although it generate less Contribution margin per unite then product B , since the overall Contribution margin of A is higher than B
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Operation Budgeting Budgeting: The Basis for Planning and Control
Benefits Derived from Budgeting Enhanced management responsibility Coordination of activities Assignment of decision making responsibilities Performance evaluation
Budget Problems and Solution Perceived unfair or unrealistic goals. Reasonable and achievable budgets. Poor management-employee communications. Employee participation in budgeting process.
The Master Budget
Notes : Prodcution must meet salesRequrements and profive suffecient end of inventory policy Used materials must also meet requrements for production and end of inventory policy
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Sales April May June July Required Number of Unites sales per month 20,000 50,000 30,000 25,000 Budgated sales (assume 10$ per unite) 200,000$ 500,000$ 300,000$ 250,000$
Production : = Assume 20% of next month sales must be in inventory = 4000 unite by end march are avilabe inventory April May June July Required Number of Unites sales per month 20,000 50,000 30,000 25,000 (+) Disired End of inventory 10,000 6000 5000 (-) Begening of inventory 4000 10,000 6000 5000 Total Unites to Produce 26,000 46,000 29,000
Materials = Assume 5 pounds of materials for each unite = 10% of next month inventory must be avilable =115 K unites are july Production , 13K are Begening of Inventory April May June July Total Unites to produce 26,000 46,000 29,000 23,000 (+) Materials needed (* 5 ) 130,000 230,000 145,000 115,000 (+) Desire End of Inventory (10% of next month) 23,000 14,500 11,500 (-)Begening of inventory 13,000 23,000 14,500 Materials Persued 140,000 221,500 142,000
Cash Payement for Materials = Assume 0.4$ per unite materials = Payement T&C 0.5 Same month , 0.5 Next month =Account Payable End of March is 12,000 $ April May June July Materials Persued 140,000 221,500 142,000 Total Cost (*0.4) 56,000 88.600 56,800 Payement From March 12,000 April purchases 28,000 28,000 May purchases 44,300 44,300 June purchases 28,400 28,400 Total Payments in Month 40,000 $ 72,300 $ 72,700 $
Labor (Direct Labor) = Assume Each unite need 3 min direct labor (0.05 Hour) = 10$ per hour is the direct labor cost April May June July Total Unites to Produce 26,000 46,000 29,000 Total Hours Required for production (*0.05) 13,000 23,000 14,500 Direct Labor Cost (*10$) 130,000 230,000 145,000
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Labor (Overhead) = Assume 1$ per unite is Variable overhead = 50K per month are fixed costs inculed 20K mothly depreciation April May June July Total Unites to Produce 26,000 46,000 29,000 (+) Variable Overhead cost (*1 $) 26,000 46,000 29,000 (+) Fixed Overhad cost 50,000 50,000 50,000 = Total Manufactural Cost 76,000 96,000 79,000 (-)Depreciation 20,000 20,000 20,000 = Manufactural overhead Cash Out 56,000 76,000 59,000
Selling and Admin = Assume 0.5 $ per unite is Variable overhead = 70K per month are fixed costs inculed 10K mothly depreciation April May June July Required Number of Unites sales per month 20,000 50,000 30,000 (+) Variable Overhead cost (*0.5 $) 10,000 25,000 15,000 (+) Fixed Overhad cost 70,000 70,000 70,000 = Total Manufactural Cost 80,000 95,000 85,000 (-)Depreciation 10,000 10,000 10,000 = Selling and Admin Cash Out 70,000 85,000 75,000
Cash Receivable Payement T&C 0.5 Same month , 0.25 Next month , 0.05 uncollected Account Receivable End of March is 30,000 $ April May June July Budgated sales 200,000$ 500,000$ 300,000$
Recived From March Sale (Account Receivable ) 30,000 Recived From April Sale 140,000 50,000 Recived From May Sale 350,000 125,000 Recived From June Sale 210,000 75,000 Total Recived in Month 170,000 400,000 335,000
Comprehensive Cash Budget Additional Information
Assume : Has a $100,000 line of credit at its bank, with a zero balance on April 1. Maintains a $30,000 minimum cash balance. Borrows at the beginning of a month and repays at the end of a month. Pays interest at 16 percent when a principal payment is made. Pays a $51,000 cash dividend in April. Purchases equipment costing $143,700 in May and $48,800 in June. Has a $40,000 cash balance on April 1.
Note: Principal repayment = $50,000 .16 3/12 = $2,000
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Time Value of Money
The Role of Time Value of Money in Finance The financial manager makes decisions based on cash flows that are expected to occur at various points in time. Therefore, special emphasis should be given to the timing of the cash flow as well as its amounts. Simply: the value of 100 EGP today is different from the value of 100 EGP in 2020. In discussing the time value concept; we deal with cash flows.
Time Lines : Analytical tool used in time value analysis. Outflow (minus sign): a cash deposit, cost, amount paid & Inflow (plus sign): a cash receipt.
Future Value Future Value is the value of a present amount at a future date found by applying compound interest over a specified period of time Compound Interest is interest earned on a given deposit that has become part of the principal at the end of a specified period Principal is the amount of money on which interest is paid
Future Value Calculation : FVn = PV * (1+k) n
Future Value Calculation Compounding : FVn = PV * (1+k/m)m*n Compounding :The interest is added several times during one period.
Present Value Present Value is the current dollar value of a future amount. The amount of money that would have to be invested today at a given interest rate over a specified period to equal the future amount Discounting Cash Flows is the process of finding present values; the inverse of compounding interest
Present Value Calculation : PV = FVn / (1+k)n
FVn = the future value at the end of period n PV = the initial principal, or present value M= the number of times per year interest is compounded
K= the annual rate of interest paid & n = the number of periods-typically years- the money is left on deposit.
Annuities : is a series of payments of an equal amount at fixed intervals, for a specified number of periods. Ordinary (Deferred) Annuity: the payments occur at the end of each period. Annuity Due: the payments occur at the beginning of each period.
Nominal vs. Effective Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rates (Stated) is a contractual rate of interest charged by a lender or promised by a borrower Effective (true) interest rate is the rate of interest actually paid or earned; normally called ANNUAL PERCENTAGE RATE (APR) APR it basically reflects the impact of compounding frequency
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Cost of Capital
Basic Concepts & Definitions To Finance a company: Debt and / or Equity. Capital Components: various types of debt + preferred stock + common equity. Each component has a cost. Each component has a weight in the financial structure of the firm.
Cost of Debt It is generally the interest paid over debts. we need to take into consideration that the interest paid generates tax savings. Consequently; we calculate after-tax cost of debt. After Tax Cost of Debt = = Interest Rate Tax Savings = I-(I*T) = I*(1-T) Cost of Retained Earnings The rate of return required by stockholders on a firms common stock. For simplicity: Required Rate of Return = risk-free rate + risk premium
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) A weighted average of the component costs of debt, preferred stock, and common equity. WACC = Fraction of debt * interest rate * (1- tax rate) + Fraction of retained earning* cost of retained earning + Fraction of common equity * cost of equity
Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting Analysis Capital budgeting is a required managerial tool. It Involves choosing investments with satisfactory cash flows and rates of return. Therefore, a financial manager must be able to decide whether an investment is worth undertaking and be able to choose intelligently between two or more alternatives. Capital budgeting is investment decision-making as to whether a project is worth undertaking. Capital budgeting is basically concerned with the justification of capital expenditures.
Capital is a Limited Resource In the form of either debt or equity, capital is a very limited resource. There is a limit to the volume of credit that the banking system can create in the economy. The argument that capital is a limited resource is true of any form of capital, whether debt or equity (short-term or long-term, common stock) or retained earnings, accounts payable or notes payable, and so on. The firm will either be denied more credit or be charged a higher interest rate, making borrowing a less desirable way to raise capital. In reality, any firm has limited borrowing resources that should be allocated among the best investment alternatives.
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Capital Expenditures Whenever we make an expenditure that generates a cash flow benefit for more than one year, this is a capital expenditure. Examples include the purchase of new equipment, expansion of production facilities, buying another company, acquiring new technologies, launching a research & development program, etc., etc., etc. Capital expenditures often involve large cash outlays with major implications on the future values of the company. Additionally, once we commit to making a capital expenditure it is sometimes difficult to back- out. Therefore, we need to carefully analyze and evaluate proposed capital expenditures.
Stages of Capital Budgeting Analysis Budgeting Analysis is a process of evaluating how we invest in capital assets; i.e. assets that provide cash flow benefits for more than one year. We are trying to answer the following questions: o Will the future benefits of this project be large enough to justify the investment given the risk involved? o It has been said that how we spend our money today determines what our value will be tomorrow. o Therefore, we will focus much of our attention on present values so that we can understand how expenditures today influence values in the future. o A very popular approach to looking at present values of projects is discounted cash flows or DCF.
The Three Stages of Capital Budgeting Analysis We will include three stages within Capital Budgeting Analysis: 1) Decision Analysis for Knowledge Building 2) Option Pricing to Establish Position 3) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) for making the Investment Decision
KEY POINT Do not force decisions to fit into Discounted Cash Flows! You need to go through a three-stage process: Decision Analysis, Option Pricing, and Discounted Cash Flow. This is one of the biggest mistakes made in financial management.
Stage 1: Decision Analysis Decision-making is increasingly more complex today because of uncertainty. Additionally, most capital projects will involve numerous variables and possible outcomes. For example, estimating cash flows associated with a project involves working capital requirements, project risk, tax considerations, expected rates of inflation, and disposal values.
Stage 2: Option Pricing The uncertainty about our project is first reduced by obtaining knowledge and working the decision analysis. The second stage in this process is to consider all options or choices we have or should have for the project. Therefore, before we proceed to discounted cash flows we need to build a set of options into our project for managing unexpected changes. In financial management, consideration of options within capital budgeting is called option pricing.
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For example, suppose you have a choice between two boiler units for your factory. Boiler A uses oil and Boiler B can use either oil or natural gas. , Based on traditional approaches to capital budgeting, the least costs boiler was selected for purchase, namely Boiler A. However, if we consider option pricing; Boiler B may be the best choice because we have a choice or option on what fuel we can use. Suppose we expect rising oil prices in the next five years. This will result in higher operating costs for Boiler A, but Boiler B can switch to a second fuel to better control operating costs. Consequently, we want to assess the options of capital projects.
Three common sources of options are: Timing Options: The ability to delay our investment in the project. Abandonment Options: The ability to abandon or get out of a project that has gone bad. Growth Options: The ability of a project to provide long-term growth despite negative values. For example, a new research program may appear negative, but it might lead to new product innovations and market growth. We need to consider the growth options of projects
Stage 3: Discounted Cash Flows So we have completed the first two stages of capital budgeting analysis: 1. Build and organize knowledge. 2. Recognize and build options within our capital projects.
We can now make an investment decision based on Discounted Cash Flows or DCF. Unlike accounting, financial management is concerned with the values of assets today; i.e. present values. Since capital projects provide benefits into the future and since we want to determine the present value of the project, we will discount the future cash flows of a project to the present. Discounting refers to taking a future amount and finding its value today. Future values differ from present values because of the time value of money. Financial management recognizes the time value of money because of inflation, uncertainty, and opportunity cost.
Inflation reduces values over time; i.e. $ 1,000 today will have less value five years from now due to rising prices (inflation).
Uncertainty in the future; i.e. we think we will receive $ 1,000 five years from now, but a lot can happen over the next five years.
Opportunity Costs of money; $ 1,000 today is worth more to us than $ 1,000 five years from now because we can invest $ 1,000 today and earn a return or Interest.
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Present Value Calculation Present values are calculated by referring to tables or we can use calculators and spreadsheets for discounting. The discount rate we will use is based on the WACC calculation.
Example Calculate the Present Value of Cash Flows ? You will receive $ 500 at the end of next year. If you could invest the $ 500 today, you estimate that you could earn 12%. What is the Present Value of this future cash inflow?
$ 500 x 0.893 (Exhibit 1) = $ 446.50
Present Value Calculation : If we were to receive the same cash flows year after year into the future, then we could use the present value tables for an annuity.
Example Calculate the Present Value of Annuity Type Cash Flows You will receive $ 500 each year for the next five years. Your opportunity costs for this investment is 10%. What is the present value of this investment? $ 500 x 3.791 (Exhibit 2) = $ 1,895.50 We now understand discounting of cash flows (DCF) and the three reasons why we discount future cash flows: Inflation, Uncertainty, and Opportunity Costs.
Present Value Calculation So far, we have covered present values and relevancy within capital budgeting. We now can proceed to calculate the present value of relevant cash flows. Once we have determined the present value of cash flows, we will have a basis for comparing our initial investment. Both values (future cash flows and initial investment) will be expressed in current values. The net of these two amounts will tell us how much value we will create or destroy by investing in a project.
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Calculating the Present Value of Two Cash Flows Our next step is to calculate present values of our two cash flow streams. We will use our cost of capital to discount the cash flows. We will assume that our cost of capital is 12%. We will use the present value tables in Exhibits 1 and 2 for finding the appropriate discount factor per the life of our cash streams and the 12% cost of capital.
Example Calculate Present Value of Cash Flows Annual Project Cash Flows $ 5,788 Discount Factor per Exhibit 2 x 3.605 Present Value of Annual Flows $ 20,866
Terminal Cash Flow $ 3,250 Discount Factor per Exhibit 1 x .567 Present Value of Terminal Flow $1,843 Total Present Value $ 22,709
Calculating Net Investment Now that we have the current value of $ 22,709 for our cash flows, we need to compare this to our investment amount. Our investment is the total cash outlay we must make today and it includes: All cash paid out to invest in the project and place it into service, such as installation, transportation, etc. Net proceeds from the disposal of any old equipment that will be replaced by the new equipment. Any taxes paid and/or tax benefits received from making the investment.
Example Calculate Net Investment
Acquisition Costs $ 25,000 Installation Costs 2,000 Increase in Working Capital 1,000
Proceeds from Sale $ 6,000 Less Taxes @ 35% (2,100)* Net Proceeds from Sale (3,900)*
Net Investment $ 24,100
So we now have a current value for our cash flows of $ 22,709 and a total net investment of $ 24,100. These amounts are derived by looking at three different types of cash flows:
o Relevant cash flows during the life of the project. o Terminal cash flows at the end of the project. o Initial cash flows (net investment).
We use the Annuity Table since we have the same cash flows each year for the next 5 years. If we look at Exhibit 2 for n = 5 years and 12%, we find 3.605 We need to discount the terminal cash flow received five years from now to the present by using the Present Value Table in Exhibit 1. for the next 5 years. If we look at Exhibit 2 for n = 5 years and 12%, we find 3.605
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Discounted Cash Flows: it is known that money received in the future is worth less than money received today, the reason for that is the time value of money, The Discounted Cash Flow technique compares the value of the future cash flows of the project to todays dollars.
Formula for future value calculations: PV = FV / (1 + i) ^n (FV = Future value), (PV= Present Value), (i= interest rate or cost of capital), (n= number of time periods)
Net Present Value (NPV): The Present value of the total benefits (income or revenue) less the costs. NPV allows calculating the accurate value of the project
NPV uses the RRR (Required rate of returns)
Net present value (NPV) allows you to calculate an accurate value for the project profit in todays dollars. NPV assumes that cash inflows are reinvested at the cost of capital. o If the NPV calculation is greater than zero, accept the project. =X o If the NPV calculation is less than zero, reject the project. = (-x)
When you get a positive value for NPV, it means that the project will earn a return at least equal to or greater than the cost of capital.
Projects with high returns early in the project are better than projects than projects with lower returns early in the project.
NPV Equation: [Sum of PV of the future cash inflows (n) - Initial Investment] . {if VE written as (xx) , if +VE written as xx}
Disadvantage: it calculate the profit in a form of an absolute number, not compared to the initial investment value
Net Present Value The first criterion we will use to evaluate capital projects is Net Present Value. Net Present Value (NPV) is the total net present value of the project. It represents the total value added or subtracted from the organization if we invest in this project.
We can refer back to our previous example and calculate
Example Calculate Net Present Value Net Investment Outflow: $ (24,100) Present Value of Inflows 22,709 Net Present Value $ (1,391)
If the Net Present Value is positive, we should proceed and make the investment. If the Net Present Value is negative (as is the case in the previous example ), then we should not make the investment.
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Internal Rate of Return (I RR): The rate at which the project inflows and project outflows are equal.
IRR is the discount rate when NPV = 0. (IRR>>RRR) IRR is the return rate when the Net Present Value of all future cash inflows equals the original investment. Internal Rate of Return is calculated by finding the discount rate whereby the Net Investment amount equals the total present value of all cash inflows; i.e. Net Present Value = 0. If the Internal Rate of Return were higher than our cost of capital, then we would accept this project.. Projects with higher IRR value are profitable. IRR assumes that cash inflows are reinvested at the IRR value It is the return rate that would make the present value of all future cash flow , plus the final market value of the business both equal the current market price IRR assumes that cash inflows are reinvested at the IRR value. IRR is called the effective internet rate (overall internet rate for my investment according to the FV and PV calculation )
IRR is the value of r when : 0 = PV0 + PV1/(1+R)+PV2/(1+R)^2+..PVn/(1+R)^n PV0 = Initial investment and always in negative value (a money I pay) PV1 = Present value of the future cash flow 0 = - Initial investment + PV1/(1+R)+PV2/(1+R)^2+..PVn/(1+R)^n
IRR is a percentage, while NPV is a value
Payback Period is the length of time it takes the company to recoup the initial costs of producing the product, service, or result of the project, this method compares the initial investment to the cash inflows expected over the life of the product The payback period is the least precise of all the cash flow calculations
Payback Period= Total Investment / Yearly Income, In our previous example; we could use a simple payback calculation as follows: $ 24,100 / $ 5,788 = 4.2 years
In case Yearly Income is not the same, o We add one year after another , until we reach initial investment o Then we backup one year , check the delta (or the reaming between the value we have and the initial investment o Divide this delta with this yearly income , add the value to the number of years we have
Example: An initial investment of $42,000 is expected to generate annual cash flows of $10,000, $15,000, $15,000, and $12,000, respectively. Assume straight-line depreciation and ignore income taxes. The payback period is _____.
$10,000 + $15,000 + $15,000 + $2,000 = $42,000; 3 years + ($2,000 / $12,000) = 3.17 years
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Discounted Payback Period
However Payback Period does not recognize the time value of money and as we previously indicated, we must consider the time value of money because of inflation, uncertainty, and opportunity costs. Therefore, we will use the discounted cash flows to calculate the payback period (discounted payback period).
Example Calculate Discounted Payback Period , Referring back to previous Example Year Cash Flow x P.V. Factor = P.V. Cash Flow Total to Date 1 $ 5,788 .893 $ 5,169 $ 5,169 2 5,788 .797 4,613 9,782 3 5,788 .712 4,121 13,903 4 5,788 .636 3,681 17,584 5 5,788 .567 3,282 20,866 5 3,250 .567 1,843 22,709
Three Economic Criteria for Evaluating Capital Projects We have completed our three main stages of capital budgeting analysis, including the calculation of discounted cash flows. The next step is to apply some economic criteria for evaluating the project. We will use three criteria: 1) Net Present Value. 2) Internal Rate of Return. 3) Discounted Payback Period.
Why The NPV And IRR Sometimes Select Different Projects When comparing two projects, the use of the NPV and the IRR methods may give different results. A project selected according to the NPV may be rejected if the IRR method is used.
Suppose there are two alternative projects, X and Y. The initial investment in each project is $2,500. Project X will provide annual cash flows of $500 for the next 10 years. Project Y has annual cash flows of $100, $200, $300, $400, $500, $600, $700, $800, $900, and $1,000 in the same period.
The IRR of Project X is 17% and the IRR of Project Y is around 13%. If you use the IRR, Project X should be preferred because its IRR is 4% more than the IRR of Project Y. But what happens to your decision if the NPV method is used? The answer is that the decision will change depending on the discount rate you use. For instance, at a 5% discount rate, Project Y has a higher NPV than X does. But at a discount rate of 8%, Project X is preferred because of a higher NPV.
The purpose of this numerical example is to illustrate an important distinction: The use of the IRR always leads to the selection of the same project, whereas project selection using the NPV method depends on the discount rate chosen.
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When Are The NPV And IRR Reliable? Generally speaking, you can use and rely on both the NPV and the IRR if two conditions are met; If projects are compared using the NPV, a discount rate that fairly reflects the risk of each project should be chosen. There is no problem if two projects are discounted at two different rates because one project is riskier than the other. Remember that the result of the NPV is as reliable as the discount rate that is chosen. If the discount rate is unrealistic, the decision to accept or reject the project is baseless and unreliable. If the IRR method is used, the project must not be accepted only because its IRR is very high.
Management must ask whether such an impressive IRR is possible to maintain. In other words, management should look into past records, and existing and future business, to see whether an opportunity to reinvest cash flows at such a high IRR really exists. If the firm is convinced that such an IRR is realistic, the project is acceptable. Otherwise, the project must be reevaluated by the NPV method, using a more realistic discount rate.
Basic Steps of Capital Budgeting 1. Estimate the cash flows 2. Assess the riskiness of the cash flows. 3. Determine the appropriate discount rate. 4. Find the PV of the expected cash flows.
Accept the project if PV of inflows > costs. IRR > WACC and/or Payback < expected life time of the project Summary The long-term investments we make today determines the value we will have tomorrow. Therefore, capital budgeting analysis is critical to creating value within financial management. And the only certainty within capital budgeting is uncertainty. Therefore, one of the biggest challenges in capital budgeting is to manage uncertainty.
We deal with uncertainty through a three-stage process: 1) Build knowledge through decision analysis. 2) Recognize and encourage options within projects. 3) Invest based on economic criteria that have realistic economic assumptions.
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Accounting Rate of Return
Accounting rate of return, also known as the Average rate of return, or ARR is a financial ratio used in Capital Budgeting. The ratio does not take into account the concept of Time Value of Money.
Accounting rate of return is a non-discounted-cash-flow Accounting rate of return focus on profitability as an objective
ARR calculates the return, generated from net income of the proposed capital investment. The ARR is a percentage return. Say, if ARR = 7%, then it means that the project is expected to earn seven cents out of each dollar invested (yearly).
If the ARR is equal to or greater than the required rate of return, the project is acceptable. If it is less than the desired rate, it should be rejected. When comparing investments, the higher the ARR, the more attractive the investment. Over one-half of large firms calculate ARR when appraising projects.
Where
Total Profit = 3000+3500+6000=12500 Avarage Profit = 12500/3 = 4167
Avarage rate of return is to highlight the Profitability of the firm
Years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Cash out - Investment 5000 Cash Out - Operation 0 2000 2500 3000 Total Cash In 5000 2000 2500 3000 Cash In - Sales 0 6000 7000 8000 Cash In Terminal (Disposal) Value 0 0 0 2000 Total Cash Out 0 6000 7000 10000 Net Cash Flow (5000) 4000 4500 7000 Depreciation (Assume Staring Line) 0 1000 1000 1000 Profit 3000 3500 6000
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Notes From Exams : Accounting rate of return is a non-discounted-cash-flows model that has profitability as an objective. The payback method of capital budgeting approach to the investment decision highlights the liquidity of the investment Discounted cash flow methods for capital budgeting focus on: cash inflows & cash outflows Net present value is calculated using the required rate of return Future-value cash-flow method is NOT capital budgeting decisions method In using the net present value method, only projects with a zero or positive net present value are acceptable because: the return from these projects equals or exceeds the cost of capital A key factor in a make-or-buy decision is: whether or not there are idle facilities The budgeting process is MOST strongly influenced by: the sales forecast Participation of line managers in the budgeting process helps to create: greater commitment Costs that CANNOT be changed by any decision made now or in the future are: sunk costs Inventory cost is not likely to be relevant in a decision concerning the disposal of obsolete inventory Incremental cost of one unit is: The cost associated with one additional unit of production. Also called marginal cost. (Cost include Direct Labor, Direct material, Variable Overhead) but NOT fixed overhead Cost. Investment : All outlay cost , until production or project start Operation : All outlay cost , After production or project start At NPV equal Zero , IRR is the rate of return At NPV equal Zero , Accept the project as its predicted to achieve its targets Avarage rate of return is to highlight the Profitability of the firm Pay Back Period is to highligh the Liquidity of he firm Present Value of $1 to be Received at the End of N Periods (PVIF) Present Value of an Annuity of $1 per Period for N Periods (PVIFA)