MEMORANDUM

TO:

THE RODNEY DAVIS CAMPAIGN TEAM

FROM:

GLEN BOLGER

RE:

KEY FINDINGS: SEPTEMBER BRUSHFIRE SURVEY

DATE:

SEPTEMBER 21, 2014

Methodology
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely voters in the 13 th
Congressional District of Illinois. The survey was conducted September 17-18, 2014, and included
120 interviews among cell phone only respondents. It has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of
100 cases.
Key Findings:
The political environment in the 13th District is favorable to Republican candidates.

1.

2.

Just 24% of voters say the country is headed in the right direction; nearly three-infour voters (71%) say the country is off on the wrong track.

President Obama has a dismal job approval rating in the district. Just 38% of voters
approve of his performance as president, while 58% disapprove 45% of them
strongly.

The Republican leads by eight points (45%-37%) on the generic Congressional

ballot, and voters prefer a Republican who will be a check and balance to Barack
Obama and Congressional Democrats to a Democrat who will help Barack Obama
and Congressional Democrats pass their agenda by a 14-point margin: 53% to 39%.

The gubernatorial race is not competitive in the 13th District: Republican Bruce
Rauner leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn 47% to 30%, while libertarian Chad
Grimm clocks in at 10%.

Rodney Davis has a significant name ID and image advantage over Ann Callis.

Daviss name ID is 85%, and his image among voters is 41% favorable/21%
unfavorable.

Fewer than two-in-three voters (63%) have heard of Ann Callis, and her image is
polarized: 19% of voters have a favorable impression of her, while 17% have an
unfavorable impression of her.

Key Findings: IL CD-13 September Brushfire

September 21, 2014
Page 2 of 2

Davis has opened up a 19-point lead over Ann Callis on the ballot test.

Davis earns the support of 55% of voters, while just 36% of voters back Callis.
Davis has a committed vote of 36%, equal to Calliss total support. Just 7% of voters
are undecided.

Fully 58% of Independents back Davis, as do nearly a quarter of Democrats (23%).

Davis leads by eight points among ideologically moderate voters, 49% to 41%.

Davis earns majorities in all of the 13th Districts three media markets.

The Bottom Line

National Democrats cant be encouraged by the state of the race in the 13th District. President
Obamas terrible job approval rating and the GOPs strength on the generic ballot make for a
favorable political environment for freshman Congressman Rodney Davis. These factors, combined
with Daviss healthy image with 13th District voters and his strong support on the ballot test, mean
that Davis remains in the drivers seat in this campaign.
In addition, Ann Callis self-inflicted wounds (residency issues, being untruthful about Davis flying
first class) have hurt her standing with the voters. While the race may tighten over the next seven
weeks, these data suggest that 13th District voters are prepared to send Davis back to Washington for
a second term.