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On Nye:
Power defined: “In general terms, power is the production, in and through
social relations, of effects that shape the capacities of actors to determine their circumstances and fate”
1. Compulsory Power: Direct control by one actor over another;
2. Institutional Power: Control actors exercise indirectly over
another through diffuse relations of interaction;
3. Structural Power: Constitution of subjects’ capacities in direct
structural relation to one another;
4. Productive Power: Socially diffuse production of subjectivity in
systems of meaning and signification.
analytic methods is to demonstrate how systems of knowledge and discursive prac-
tices produce subjects through social relations that are quite indirect, socially diffuse,
and temporally distant+28 For instance, students of gender, race, and nation rou-
tinely recognize how socially diffuse discourses, and not isolated, direct, and prox-
imate actions, produce the subjects of the modern world+29
AUTHORITY - - - - - - - - - - - -
Operationalization
How do we measure power?
Capabilities:
o GDP
o Income/capita
o Population
o Military Strength
o Natural Resource Reserves
o Foreign Investment / Aid / Debt
Currency Reserves (China has over $2 trillion in
currency reserves)
o Human Resources: Education / Health
o Credit Rating (Express measure of how much it costs to
borrow money)
BUT >>> Power is relational. Power is also zero-sum.
DIRECT DIFFUSE
SPECIFIC ACTORS Compulsory Institutional
SOCIAL
IDENTITIES Structural Productive
MEixcanitas….
09/16/2009
THEORIES
1) Realism/Liberalism
2) Systemic/Domestic
3) Interests/Ideas
Where interests come from originally? Material interests or
ideas?
4) State/Non-State Actors
PREFERENCES:
SURVIVAL - States can disappear. States must take actions to
ensure that they keep existing. (really, all theories presume that
you want to survive). (Not as important on a GPE level)
SECURITY – Not just survive, but keep control over security. (Not
as important on a GPE level)
SOVEREIGNTY – Maintain control/autonomy over domestic affairs.
This is a concern on GPE.
STRATEGIES:
o Tit-for-Tat (Realists aren’t fans of Tit for Tat: If you care
about relative gains, there is no strategy that Tit-for-Tat will
out-perform one on one)
Cooperative strategy
Quick to punish defection
Forgiving
Thrive with like-minded states
o How to increase odds of successful Tit for Tat outcome:
1) Lengthen the shadow of the future.
2) Detection of Defection. In prisoner’s dilemma it is
easy to detect defection – not so in the real world.
3) Alter payoffs so that: either the prisoner’s dilemma
looks less extreme or the game no longer looks like a
prisoner’s dilemma:
6,6 0,5
5,0 1,1
a) Increase the rewards for cooperation. Decrease the gap between
mutual cooperation and unilateral defection. Futhermore, you are
increasing the gap between MC and MD. Pipe dream: if you can increase
rewards for MC higher than rewards for Unilateral Defection, then you
create a very stable system.
DOMESTIC v. SYSTEMIC
DOMESTIC
o Actors:
Governments
Regime type
State Strength: Strong State / Weak State?
Strong state is capable of making decisions
autonomously of societal forces. Even able
to influence societal forces. Easy to impose
tariffs and collect taxes.
Political Parties: Power
Interest Groups: Motivated principally by material and
ideological gains
Central Bank
Courts: Justice
Legislatures: Stay in Power
Sub-national governments
States
Emirates
Provinces
o Incentives:
STAY IN OFFICE
PERCEPTION OF POWER
IDEAS v. INTERESTS
Actions -->
Roadmaps
Hooks (don’t believe the idea, but believe in the policy outcomes)
Institutionalization: Crackpot --> legitimacy.
o IFIs (International Financial Institutions)
Milton Friedman and fellow monetarists started getting power
in the economic arena. At one point, IFIs stopped hiring
Keynesians and started to hire monetarist economists.
Norm Cascade: if you can get enough people to believe your idea,
the idea becomes accepted wisdom.
Outcomes:
An idea entrepreneur can create a epistemic community. This could
create hard policy constraint.
TARP: When Paulsen proposed the plan, economists disagreed.
o Economists said to inject liquidity instead. Paulsen does a
180 and engages in the recommended strategy.
o Causal Complexity: Murphy’s Law of Ideas: if there isn’t a
consensus saying you’re wrong, you (as a policy maker) will
get away with it.
Shifts in norms or principled ideas are rare.
Consensus has to be politically palatable: during crisis, many
leading economists proposed nationalizing banks. Didn’t get
traction for two reasons: 1. Politically unpalatable; 2. No economic
consensus.
Ideas as focal points.
NGOs
Interests:
o Most are single issue interest groups.
o All NGOs have a few transitory interests:
Funding
Remaining Extant
Attention – Be noticed
Reputation
Actions:
o Appeal to Emotive Norms
o Appeal to Executive Branch, Legislature Branch, Judicial
Branch
o Agenda Setting
o Have to decide whether to be ‘insiders’ or ‘outsiders’
REFORMER – Play nice with powerful people.
SYSTEM CHANGER – No compromise
TRADE
o 2) Economic Organization
Need some type of trust: credits, loans
o 3) Capital Markets
o 4) WAR – Bad for Trade. International Conflict dramatically
decreases trade:
Actual Sabotage – enemies try to destroy commercial
trade
Long term war – greater share of resources to state.
Producing goods with no useful goods beyond killing
people.
Import competing sectors thrive. And want to stay in
business after war.
o 5) Trade Policy - Tariffs, Non-tariff barriers, trade
agreements, etc.
TRADE:
1) Pre 1860 --> Mercantilism: Fixed sum of global trade. Way to win:
have exports exceed imports, b/c you get gold. AND GOLD IS AWESOME!
Might have to go to war to protect your trade. Economists disdain
mercantilists. They were not completely insane at that time – economic
growth from the beginning of time and 1800.
TOTAL
GDP
2) 1860-1890 -->
Gold becomes consistent currency.
Massive technological advancements:
o Transatlantic cable
o Railroad increases x5
Companies become more sophisticated
UK liberalizes trade barriers
Cobden-Chevalier Treaty – Great Britain & France
o Most Favored Nation Status – If either country further
liberalized with another countries, that tariff reduction (or
whatever the policy was), also applied to the other partner.
New Countries. Germany and Italy were re-unified.
US was a big whopping protectionist. Russia had a 84% tariff on
manufactures.
3) 1890-1914 -->
1870 – GB has more railtrack in GB, than LA, S.Af. India, Canada,
Australia combined. By 1914, the periphery has 5x more than GB.
Vietnamese rice output quintuples.
South Africa Chocolate exports expand.
Economic recession --> Popular hostility towards globalization. Took
it out on the gold standard. B/C it was too expensive and caused
deflation. During recession, there was massive deflation.
Massive waves of economic migration. People are shipping across
border.
o Between 1845-1900, Irish average income grows by .7%
per/year. Irish per capita GDP grew by 1.6% b/c of massive
migration.
Waning British Hegemony. By 1890 the English trading state was
the largest Trader in the world. But no longer the largest economy.
o Their policy direction drifted back towards closure.
Trade wars in Europe.
Rising Agricultural protectionism in Europe (this starts a trend that
continues for the next 100 yrs).
Rising Industrial Protectionism in rest of world
4) 1914-1945
WW1
o Blockades.
o Transport costs more than double as result of WW1
o Cost of capital increases as countries leave Gold Standard for
own printed currency.
o Before the war, trade as % of global economic output was
about 25%. After the war, it was about 16%.
o US was undisputed winner.
o US manufacturing output is tripled.
o Continental Europe is dealing with hyper inflation and other
domestic issues.
o US now undisputed hegemon, but US had ZERO interest in
taking on that leadership role. Rejects the league of Nations
and treaty of Versailles. US ABDICATED LEADERSHIP
o Outsources financial leadership role to JP Morgan and Lamont.
Europe borrowed massive amounts of money from US
banks.
o CFR founded during this period as internationalization
advocate.
o Anti-dumping bills created.
o 2000 US tariffs raised on some good or product.
o With US abdicating leadership, Britain tries to take over. GB
goes back to Gold Standard, but at pre-war lb-Au rates.
Stupid!
Rise in MNCs.
Growth in Trade.
In US, it took until 1980 for levels of trade to exceed 1929
levels.
From 1929 on, DEPRESSION. US Fed. Reserve thought there
was a stock market bubble, so they raised interest rates.
Stock market bubble popped. Massive deflation. Rubber –
1929 – 21 cents / lb; 1931 – 3 cents. / lb.
Massive fallen output. US economy shrinks by 30%.
o Policy Reactions: SMOOT-HAWLEY Average tariff – 52.5%.
Affects over 2000 goods. Canada, Mexico, France, Italy,
Turkey, China, Spain all react by raising tariffs. Egg war
between Britain and Canada. Within a year, 26 countries
levied tariffs against US. DIDN”T CAUSE GREAT
DEPRESSION, B/C it was enacted in 1930, but it SURE AS
HELL DEEPENED IT.’
o Austrian bank closes.
o All major currencies are non-convertible
o Massive drops in Exports.
o Currency blocks.
o Massive shift towards autarchy. Each country engages in a
self-help program to try to boost its domestic economy. In
US and GB, it is Keynesian. In USSR – Collectivization in
Agriculture. In authoritarian countries it is fascism.
o “Let goods be homespun”
o US in 1934 – Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act. Congress
outsources trade policy to President. Allows Pres. To
renegotiate trade deals to up to 50% less than Smoot-
Hawley.
5) 1945-1973
1944 – Bretton Woods Conference – Chateau in NH
1947 – Create General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – little
agreement to reduce tariffs before big agreements.
1948 – Havana Charter – Ambitious goal of creating International
Trade Organization - US negotiated this with US, LA, GB. US
wanted multilateral, open agreement. GB wanted commodity
protections and LA wanted economic development incentivizing
points. --> One problem: US Congress hated it. Republicans
thought it was too liberalizing. Didn’t want foreign imports coming
in. Liberal Democrats hated it b/c it wasn’t liberal enough. ITO
never comes into existence!
Left with GATT. Intended to be interim treaty. But we had to build
on it. Didn’t include communist bloc. – Council of mutual economic
assistance. CMEA:> Inefficient economic union known to man. No
convertible currencies. No price system, so trading was difficult.
CMEA promoted mercantilist system if everyone adopted
mercantilism.
GATT-->
o Most Favored Nation.
o National Treatment. Once a good is imported into country,
you have to treat it and regulate it just as you do
domestically made goods. Tax it with a tariff when it comes
in, but once in, same as all other goods.
o Quotas – made hidden trade barriers more visible and then
reduce them over time.
o Norm – Agriculture is not covered under GATT (US idea).
b/c Great D. started partially due to dust bowl hurting
ag. Commodities.
o GB could keep preferred trading status.
o Customs Unions: Reduces tariffs within custom unions (trade
promoting unions (EU, for example)). Simultaneously create
more trade, but also divert trade. NAFTA Creating a lot of
trade between US-CAN-MEX, but diverted it from other
places. EG: Mexico wanted NAFTA b/c it diverted trade with
US from China to Mexico.
o Dispute settlement – need consent of violating organization.
o GATTS winds up being very successful. Six rounds of GATT
negotiations before WTO is created.
o From post-WWII to 1960s Global output triples, trade
increases by factor of six.
Import Substitution Industrialization (ISI) - Raul Prebisch (ARG) –
observed that commodity markets function differently than
manufactured goods markets. If you liberalize commodity market,
prices inevitably go down. With manufacturing, the effect on prices
was more ambiguous. b/c mnf goods more heterogeneous.
If all you are exporting is commodities then eventually you’ll be
screwed. Prebisch argued that there should be policies that protect
infant industries in LA. So in LA there were massive barriers to
Manufactured Goods imports (as in other developing countries).
ISI by and large Succeeded. LA is mostly industrialized. Still, GDP
is low. Demand for imports didn’t decline. Saw luxury goods
demand increase, overvalued currencies and manufacturing sectors
that were ridiculously uncompetitive. Brazil exported less than 1%
of manufacturing output. As result, ISI countries suffered from
massive balance of trade deficits. They responded by devaluing
currencies, which lead to coups and dictatorships.
Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) Japan, SK, Sing, HK – no real
natural commodities to export anyway. ‘We will pursue policies
that protect our home markets’ Export Promotion. Purpose: We’ll
give you the domestic market, but you have to be able to export
and compete globally. ALTERNATE TO ISI
ISI a lot of manufacturing, but none devoted to exports.
Export Promotion – much of manufacturing devoted to exports.
1973- US runs first trade deficit. GDP growth slows.
As US GDP declines, Japan and Germany GDP increases. By end of
this era, Japan is second largest economy.
1983 – Death of ISI – Export promotion strategy takes over. DEBT
CRISIS in LA. US (Volker) sets interest rates over 20% to curb
inflation. Developing countries can’t afford that.
Prior to 1973, trade is between firms and countries. Post-1973,
trade grows between firms. Neo-classicist economist predict that
trade grows between LDCs and MDCs, but, that doesn’t happen.
US-->EU-->JAPAN
Strategic Trade Theory:
6) 1973-1990
7) 1990-2008
Knowledge of
Wednesday, October 21, 2009 09/16/2009
Trade: Non-Strategic Trade Theory
How do you know what trading partners will say they have
increasing rerurns to scale
Non-tariff barriers:
Anti-dumping.
Countervailing Duties.
¼ of all traded goods covered under some sort of non-tariff barrier.
For textiles, there is the Multi Fiber Agreement -->
Bangladesh benefitted most from this.
Steel: Trigger price mechanism. Carter Admin. If foreign steel
drops below a certain ‘trigger’ price, we conduct automatic
investigation in anti-dumping.
Voluntary Export Restrictions (VER): Japan, what if you voluntarily
restrict exports of autos to US? Do us this favor. By the way, we
protect you from the Soviet Union. Japan agrees.
o Consumer prices go up, not as many cheap jap autos in the
market.
o Government loses too, b/c no import taxes.
o US Auto makers win, but b/c of lack of competition, quality
declined.
o Japan got the bright idea of exporting Acuras and Lexuses,
luxury cars with higher profit marines
In Japan 60% of imports from US were subject to some sort of non-
tariff barriers.
After Kobe earthquake, Motorola offered to export cellphones for
free and Tylenol for free. Japanese Department of health argued
that the Japanese anatomy was different and Tylenol pills were too
big, so that US couldn’t export Tylenol.
Uruguay round: more regional emphasis. Countries pursue this
strategy b/c of fear that GATT would break down. Triggered by the
fear that big countries were going at it alone (namely US).
1990-2008
Massive productivity increases
Internet
GATT converts to WTO.
WTO more significant:
o Actual mechanisms for enforcement.
o Most countries join, including developing counties like China.
o Unlike 70s, developing countries adopt Washington
consensus.
o Trade barriers drop.
o Blowback:
Countries start engaging in multilateral agreements
outside of WTO.
Populist reaction to trade epitomized by ‘Battle in
Seattle’
Drivers of trade: absence of war and technology
Why FDI?
Transaction Costs lower
Product Cycle: Production moves to cheaper labor sources.
Increasing Returns
Comparative Advantage:
Leapfrog protectionism.
Multinationals are better at Politics that domestically-based firms
FPI: Foreign Portfolio Investment (Stock, Bonds, other interest bearing
assets).
IN THE BEGINNING:
Money made of precious metals
Gresham’s Law: Bad money drives out good money.
o Let’s say the gov’t says 1 gold coin is worth 18 silver
coins.
o But the market says 1 gold is worth 16 silver coins.
So the arbitrager sells gold to gov’t for 18 silver
and buys gold on market for 16 silver. Eventually
gold leaves market (b/c the gov’t buys it) and the
market value goes up.
UK was on a gold standard
“As Master of the Mint in 1717 in the "Law of Queen Anne"
Newton unintentionally moved the Pound Sterling from the
silver standard to the gold standard by setting the bimetallic
relationship between gold coins and the silver penny in
favour of gold. This caused silver sterling coin to be melted
and shipped out of Britain.”
Bimetallic Standards: GOLD AND SILVER: WHY?
o Both were useful
o Even though there were occasional supply shocks,
surprisingly little volatility.
o Brissage: Cost of shipping of gold and silver (VERY
HEAVY)
o Some level of Int’l cooperation. Latin Monetary Union
was an arrangement in EU in late 19th c that regulated
common standard of purity for silver coins.
o
1879 Classical Gold Standard
o Gold Standard had bouts of serious deflation, b/c there
wasn’t bimetal standards in US.
Pound is Medium of exchange, Sterling is Unit of account.
Countries were willing to deal with inflation or recession to
ensure that gold standard was preserved.
Only 6 adjustments in exchange rates between 1890 – 1914
WWI:
Countries go off Au Standard and start printing money willy-
nilly.
Interwar Gold Exchange. Significant Economic Shocks:
Germany has to agree to indemnity of ~$40 Billion (in
today’s dollars). At same time UK and France owed US
massive sums of $$$ from loans to finance war.
Political Shocks: Expansion of voting franchise (Most men,
and some women)
o Expansion of Voting Franchise ratchets up expectations
of Govt (welfare state)
o Social Democratic Party arises.
o Communism rises.
o Dramatic shrinking of cabinet security (duration of
governments) to about 18 months in office.
In 1922 – International Monetary Conference in Genoa: Let’s
get back to gold standard.
o Agreement: peripheral countries would take whatever
gold they had and deposit it in London’s major financial
firms. In return, they’d get convertible currencies.
o Continued UK colonized policy
o Also minimized gold coinage. Allow for gold standard
without having to have all that gold. GB, FR, and US
would all make gold available and convertible.
o League of Nations (that era’s UN and IMF) – could loan
money to nations.
o US doesn’t send political representatives to Genoa,
rather bankers like Edward Kemeror:
Jeff Sachs of his era.
Was prostheletizing Gold Standard.
Wherever Ed
Monday, November 2nd
09/16/2009
MONETARY POLICY
Y: C+I+G+X-M-T
(GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending+ Exports
– Imports – Taxes)
Y = C+S
(GDP=Consumption + Savings)
C+S = C + I + G – T + X - M
S-I = (G-T)+(X-M)
LOW SUPPLY
A)THE GOLD STANDARD:
o Deflation was tolerated (despite crippling effects)
o Willing to tolerate recession to have coordinate
o Minimal political pressures for govt to diverge from
thses polcies
Limited understanding of connection between intl
pol. Coordi. And domestic effects.
o Fair amount of cooperation, but the world doesn’t look
like this now.
B) 1920’s Isolated episodes of
C) Bank runs, loss of faith in ability of major western
countries to coordinate.
D) Bretton Woods –
o Significant capital controls so link between exchange
rate and macroeconomic policy gets severed.
o Unholy trinity
Fixed exchange rates
Capital mobility (bretton woods gave this up and
could pursue ‘embedded liberalism’)
1) Distributional Costs
Adjustments carry relative sacrifices. Difficult to gain
political capital for these adj. better to influence other actor
to change instead.
2) Prisoner’s Dilemma: In response to 2008/2009 Crisis
(FISCAL STIMULUS)
Most big economies agree that governments need to engage
in aggressive spending.
Most govts like this (+jobs +investment + services), except
those that have been burned but hyper inflation in the past.
Germans for example, don’t have to worry about domestic
stimulus, b/c if China, US, UK boost spending, Germany’s
export-driven economy benefits without having to increase
fiscal spending!
Reduces incentives for all countries to cooperate.
Could help reduce this by enforcement… but…..
3) No Enforcement Mechanism – so incentives to coordinate
dissipate.
Completely New:
o Most topics so far have very long histories.
o Reduction in time and cost of information exchange is
unprecedented.
o Good symbol of globalization
Paradox of ‘Globalization Studies’
o Friedman: World is flat. States look clunky and
obsolete.
o Awesome means for communication
Creation of Internet: (Previously known as: ARPANET) – for
gov’t purposes. Means of communication post-nuclear
attack.
o Decentralized network. Couldn’t cut out 1 node and
destroy network.
No Centralized Regime that governs the internet.
1) WHY NO SINGLE REGIME?
2) WHY NO DISAPPEARNCE OF STATES?
Stringent regulation of internet that varies from country to
country. Why are they able to do this?
3) EXPLAINING VARIATION IN REGIMES
1) US Department of Commerce: Controls Root Server
2)MNC’s
Intellectual Property
Free Reign
o Sales
o Marketing
3) GEEKS
Left-libertarian Outlook:
o Internet should be free (OPEN SOURCE)
4) Developed Economies:
5) LDCs
Want to control political externalities while enjoying the
positive commercial opportunities
6) IGOs: See Internet as a great big opportunity for regulating.
7) NGOs: Want info to be free. Exploit all possibilities of
internet and allow unfettered access to it without Govt or MNC
involvement.
November 4, 2009 09/16/2009
Divergent restrictions
NORTH/SOUTH
DIVERGENCE
CONVERGENCE
Content
Data Privacy
DIVERGENC Regulation
E
US/EU
IPR Technical
Protocols
CONVERGE
NCE
In US, paranoia that the gov’t will have too much info.
In EU, paranoia about MNCs getting too much info.
A) Bretton Woods II
No more loans from IMF with embarrassing strings attached.
Wanted Fuck You money – allowing them to go to IMF during
economic crisis with out hat in hand.
o 1) Asian accumulation of dollars.
Currency reserves as percentage of GDP at
unprecedented levels.
What are opportunity costs?
Use $$ to buy:
a) Cash
b) T-bills
c) GSE: Government Sponsored Enterprises
(Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) – buying
mortgage backed securities from FM^2
d) Equity (stocks)
e) Buy real estate
o 2) Pegged, Undervalued exchange rates –
o 3) US – Led Consumption Growth
US consumption rises to 72% of GDP
China’s, by contrast, is 35% of GDP
US Current Account Deficit is $800B – 7% of GDP,
1.7% of Global Output!
Currency speculators eyeing this. Major risk of
run on $$
o CHINA – Net exports 25-35% of China’s GDP growth.
Chinese implicit compact: we provide better than
8% growth, you don’t protest or mass in the
streets.
China’s only development option is to create a
viable export sector.
Chinese government can’t mess with this, b/c it
would also mess with their only reliable engine of
growth.
o OPEC:
also doesn’t want to screw with this. Their
financial markets can’t handle the surplus
revenues they are generating from sale of oil, so
they invest in US financial markets.
OPEC- US consumption is fueling their success
o US: Could have mitigated risk, but the political costs
were too high
FOR EACH MAJOR PLAYER, ADJUSTMENT COSTS TOO HIGH TO
SHIFT FROM STATUS QUO.
Massive Capital Flows going into the US:
o (Opposite of Classic position: capital should be flowing
to the places with least capital)
Greenspan Put: the guarantee that if there is a crisis, Alan
Greenspan will cut interest rates. This causes asset prices to
go way up. A lot of capital sloshing around, limited amount
of assets, so prices go up.
Economists were worried, but about a run on the dollar.
What really happened was a crisis pertaining to where the
dollars were being invested.
TRADE/FISCAL
If everyone engages in fiscal expansion, trade doesn’t change.
But, if you are Germany and you know that other countries are
engaging in fiscal expansion and that your economy is dependent
on exports, you can do nothing and ride free.
o It this happens, USA introduces Buy-American and China
passes Buy China.
TRUST: Little trust in financial markets. Not a lot of lending
either.
Authoritarian Capitalist Countries become more authoritarian:
Sovereign Wealth Funds turned inward
Russia seizes assets
China
LONG-TERM: L, U,W
L–
o Look at how countries have recovered from financial crises in
the past
o 8/2007 – 8/2008 – Central banks were working hard to stave
off crisis, but it didn’t work
o Housing Crisis fell by 35% over the next six years (relative to
start of crisis)(Reinhart and Rokoff)
o Equity Market fall by 55% over the next 6 years.
o Unemployment should spike by 7% (US is almost here)
o Flat Growth for a while.
U–
o Interest Rates at historic lows.
o Massive Fiscal stimulus packages
o IMF’s target was fiscal stimulus equivalent to 2% of Global
GDP: They hit 1.8%
o Zarnowitz Rule: As hard as we fell, so fast will we rise again.
W– WE ARE IN NO-MAN’S LAND
o HUGE CRISIS + HUGE RESPONSE = VOLATILITY
o Recovery caused bubble?
o Uncertainty about value of toxic assets
Might be worth less, might be worth more
o Monetary Policy usually takes 14-18 months to cycle through
economy.
o Threat to Central Bank independence. Central Bankers were
too lax in their policies towards credit. Simultaneous
legislation trying to curb their powers, right when they have
to raise interest rates.
o MASSIVE POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY!!!
o Financial Regulation is a big WILDCARD. WHO KNOWS?
o BUBBLE CRASH BUBBLE CRASH BUBBLE CRASH --> $$$
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 09/16/2009
BRIC
1) Why Them?
2) How Powerful?
3) Preferences?
4) How Cohesive?
In 2003, Goldman Sachs comes out with BRIC idea: a lot of common
strengths:
Sizeable Land mass
GDP over $1T
Population over 140 Million
Foreign Exchange reserves over $200 Billion – none are truest
vulnerable to international crisis.
Attracting significant Inward FDI / and have MNCs engaging in
outward FDI
BRAZIL
Richest of BRIC economies, but smaller pop-wise
Abundant natural resources
Energy Independent –
Water and Food independent
Best security situation within the BRICs, hegemonic power in Latin
America. Pretty good friends with US.
RUSSIA
Demographics
Heartland
o McKinder – whoever can control heartland can control
rimland.
HOW POWERFUL ARE THEY?
Reversion to Historical Trend
o India + China biggest economies in year 1
o India + China biggest economies in year 1500
o Stronger tech, military, navy, etc.
o THE ANOMALY HAS BEEN THE LAST 200 YEARS!
Technological Diffusion Long Waves:
o Tech origins in hegemony. They burst ahead / break away!
o Than stasis kicks in, diffusion of tech from core to periphery.
o Now BRICs can leapfrog tech. Don’t have to invest in
landlines, and can invest directly in wireless capabilities.
o
Russia is a big version of Kuwait – 80% of economy falls under:
energy, metals, or timber
India is most vulnerable strategically. The most politically insecure.
o New Economic Order was never imposed
o India still sees itself as a wretchedly poor, predominantly
agricultural economy.
“GHANDI WAS FUCKING INSANE – I can not stress this
enough.”
Total Luddite -
The only power that could expand without making people nervous is
the EU.
Preferences:
Poor
Anti-American
Resisted Washington Consensus
Varieties of Capitalism that are inefficient
Public opinions about free trade in each of these countries are more
simpatico with US populations that US public!
Cohesion?
Cleavages:
o Per capita income: Brazil and Russia well ahead India and
China
o History: China and Russia have always been perceived as
great powers and have many of the perquisites of the great
powers (IMF). India and Brazil have always been at the
kiddie table.
o Regime Type: Brazil and India: Democracies; Russia and
China not so much.
o Consumer v. Producer
China and India will be consumer states
Brazil and Russia will be raw material producers
o Security Tensions: Russia, China, India have a few security
tensions to deal with. Russia:China; and China:India. Brazil
is OK here.
Disputed China-India border. Russia-Chinese have
border dispute. China-India-Pakistan – wonderful
mess.
o
o dsdf
Monday, November 23, 2009 09/16/2009
Foreign demands has switched to the short term end, not long
term (T-bills)
US isn’t going to stop issuing debt any time soon. They will
continue to borrow and roll over debt.
B/C of all of this, there has been a lot of speculation that the
dollar should no longer be the reserve currency.
Relatively Plausible replacement for the dollar = €
o Governs large economic area
o Holds value relatively well
China
o Blames much of global economic ills on overdependence on
US dollar as reserve currency
o Proposed a ‘Super-Sovereign’ currency
IMF staff thought it would be good
Many countries bought the idea
‘Gold Bug’
o Over $1275 / ounce
o Indicates loss of faith in world economy.
o China has increased holdings in gold 5x in the last five years
o India purchased $100 billion of IMF gold
WILL WE SWITCH AWAY FROM DOLLAR ANYTIME SOON??
o No real history of this.
o In the last 300 years, only one switch of international reserve
currency. Pound Sterling --> Dollar
MONEY:
o Unit of account – to what extent are international
commodities valued in $$$
Dollar is still pretty robust.
Most commodity markets are invoiced in dollars.
Switching away from that would be costly.
Most currencies are pegged to the dollar.
66 countries are pegged to dollar
27 countries pegged to €
o Store of value –
Even during crisis, dollar maintained value
Flight to quality paradox:
Dollar rose in value during crisis.
Int’l community wanted an asset that was not
risky and relatively liquid = US Gov’t debt.
Fear of crisis leads to plunging dollar, which leads
to concerns which leads to flight to quality, which
leads to buying the dollar, which brings the dollar
back up.
o Medium of exchange
86% of all cross border transactions involve the dollar
38% of “ “ “ “ “ Euro
OPTIONS
1) Stop Capital Mobility - Do away with international currency
reserve:
o Capital Mobility has lead to huge instability
o Getting rid of Capital Mobility eliminates the Unholy Trinity
problem.
o Brazil tried to implement capital control --> insignificant 2%
tax. Easy to evade.
BUT … Capital markets are TOO SOPHISTICATED
o Even though the RMB is non-convertible, international
investors find way to invest in China.
o Emerging markets don’t want to limit capital inflow
o FINANCIAL MARKETS DON’T WANT THIS.
2) Continue with the dollar
o If you took a snapshot of the world economy right now you
would conclude that global reserve should be the dollar
Significant financial strength
HUGE Private wealth --> part of reason that dollar
increased in value during the crisis is that Americans
investing abroad decided to bring dollars home.
Debt to GDP load is much lower than Japan and EU writ
large.
US has security relationships that cement the dollars
role. Key capital exporters (Japan and Gulf Council)
have important security relationships with US. Japan
and Gulf Council agree to support the dollar in exchange
for military support.
In 1973 Bretton Woods ‘Spelled the end of the dollar’ -
the opposite happened.
o If you stick with the dollar you get to avoid the switching
costs.
Dollar value plummets, countries lose a lot of money,
very publically.
China, for example, got very upset when CIC’s
investment in Blackstone went belly up.
Private sector loses also huge.
But…
Flight to quality paradox continues
Concerns about huge increases in debt issues in the
next 10 years.
3) Gold – Good old fashioned commodity based currency
o As store of value, Gold has held up well
o Other countries show interest in gold
o Domestically, US conservatives love gold
Ron Paul- head of house financial services committee:
Into Gold
Drawbacks:
Not portable
Not enough
Not an interest bearing asset. Doesn’t do anything for
you when you hold it besides gleaming.
China has quintupled gold reserves, but aggregate
reserves have increased by 15x, so as a percentage,
China’s holding of gold fell in value by 50%.
4) EURO: €
o Second in all measurements to dollar
o Germans are fanatical about inflation. Germans run currency.
Strong Euro policy.
o Complications b/c of make up of EU.
Not clear what the precise relationship between all of
the EU actors.
Euro was created as a pact between France and
Germany.
Political Uncertainties
Weak countries. Ireland, Greece.
Financial Depth
o 10 years old
o ASIA: Euro-zone is not the most dynamic economic zone in
the world. Is the future of the European economy a robust
one?
Heavily regulated markets
Bad demographic picture
Pacific Rim Actors have a good relationship with US.
Pac Rim actors have little to no influence over European
actors.
o European Central Bank doesn’t want the Euro to be the
reserve currency.
Performance during Financial crisis didn’t help out
much.
For a country to have a foreign reserve currency.
5) ¥£ CHF
o Not huge economies,
o Not a lot of trade in these currencies
6) Yuan, RMB:
o RMB --> Not convertible
Many people want it to be convertible
Fastest growing economy
China promoted use of RMB in GoangDong Province and
other examples. China taking steps to making RMB
convertible.
BUT… China’s Financial Sector is much more repressed.
China took the ‘wrong lesson’ from the financial crisis.
Short term switching costs for China would be the
greatest of all countries we’ve talked about. Reliant on
exports, exposing it to major economic shocks.
Political Stability
Authoritarian, Opaque as best. Private + State
actors are not comfortable about this.
India, Japan, Australia, Russia, ASEAN countries,
not thrilled over this.
7) Special Drawing Right: Basket of World Currencies.
o Created in 1969 as a way to create liquidity
11% £
11% ¥
44% $
34% €
o Some countries clearly are interested in this.
o How often do SDR weights get adjusted?
o IMF have begun to issue SDR denominated bonds. (Only $500
Bn – compared with global assets of 100Trillion Dollars)
o Political issues huge!
o No way the EU or the US will agree to this.
Surrender of monetary sovereignty that no one will be
willing to do.
o SDR is not money. Functions as a unit of account, doesn’t
serve as a medium of exchange. Doesn’t serve as store of
value.
UPSHOT:
Maybe Soft regionalization of Euro.
LUO PING: Chinese Banking Regulator “We hate you guys. Once
you start issuing $1 trillion-$2 trillion [$1,000bn-$2,000bn] . . .we
know the dollar is going to depreciate, so we hate you guys but
there is nothing much we can do.”
RULES
1) UNFCCC –
Investigate the problem.
Everyone signs on (not surprisingly)
2) 1997 Kyoto Protocol ‘Annex 1’
1) REALISM:
No real political changes have taken place b/c of Climate Change
Only the EU has really done anything and that was for energy
security.
Most powerful country didn’t sign on.
NOTHING WILL HAPPEN.
COAL.COAL.COAL.
2) LIBERALISM:
If you look at the pattern, you are seeing a slow accretion of
agreements.
Cooperation is building.
At a minimum the int’l orgs set up to deal with Global Warming has
gotten the world on-board in agreeing there is a problem, and
talking about potential solutions. That alone is a success.
Classic Tragedy of the Commons. N player prisoner’s dilemma.
Wednesday, December 9 09/16/2009
Bank of International Settlements – 1933
IMF: 1944/45
IBRD: 1945
WTO/GATT: 1947
OECD: 1948
NETHERLANDS – 2.37%
SWITZERLAND – 1.59%
FRANCE – 4.9%
ITALY - 3.24%
GERMANY – 5.98%
SPAIN – 1.4%
UNITED KINGDOM – 4.94%
24.42%
JAPAN – 6.12%
CHINA – 3.72% voting rights in IMF
INDIA – 1.9% voting rights
RUSSIA – 2.73%
SAUDI ARABIA – 3.21%
UNITED STATES – 17.09%
CANADA – 2.93%
AUSTRALIA – 1.49%
LAT AM:
BRAZIL: 1.4%
MEXICO: 1.45%
ARGENTINA: .97%
CHILE: .39%
VENEZUELA: 1.22%
COSTA RICA: .08%
COLOMBIA: .36%
PANAMA: .1%
PERU: .29%
BOLIVIA: .08%
URUGUAY: .14%
6.48%
Governance Bloc)
What has the G-20 accomplished to date?
People keep crashing.
Spain, Netherlands both got seats at table.
G-2