US warns that Ebola could infect 1.

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A pregnant woman suspected of contracting Ebola is lifted by stretcher into an ambulance in
Freetown, Sierra eone.
!y Associated "ress
#September $%, $&14 ' ()%*pm
U.S. health o+cials ,uesday laid out worst#case and best#
case scenarios for the Ebola epidemic in -est Africa, warning that the
number of infected people could e.plode to at least 1.4 million by mid#
/anuary 0 or pea1 well below that, if e2orts to control the outbrea1 are
ramped up.
,he widely 3arying pro4ections by the 5enters for 6isease 5ontrol and
"re3ention were based on conditions in late August and do not ta1e into
account a recent international surge in medical aid for the stric1en region.
,hat burst has gi3en health authorities reason for some optimism.
78m con9dent the most dire pro4ections are not going to come to pass,:
565 chief 6r. ,om Frieden said in releasing the report.
About (,;&& illnesses and o3er $,;&& deaths ha3e been counted since the
9rst cases were reported si. months ago.
!ut international health authorities ha3e warned that the crisis is probably
far worse in reality, with many corpses and infected people hidden or
unreported.
,he 565, for e.ample, estimated that the real number of cases, reported
and unreported, could reach $1,&&& by Sept. %& in 4ust two of the hardest#
hit countries, iberia and Sierra eone.
7n its worst#case scenario, the 565 said the number of illnesses in those
nations could hit 1.4 million by /an. $&.
!ut the 565 also said that the epidemic
in both countries could be almost ended
by /an. $&, by aggressi3ely isolating the
sic1, either in hospitals or at home, and
by ta1ing steps to reduce the spread of
the disease during burials.
A surge now can brea1 the bac1 of the
epidemic,: Frieden said.
,he 565 did not gi3e an estimate of how
many Ebola cases o3erall could be
e.pected under the best#case scenario.
!ut it said the number of new cases per day could be fewer than %&& by
mid#/anuary, instead of the thousands feared under the grimmer
pro4ections.
Modal ,rigger
<oseline Edogbo, guardian secretary of
,undunwada Secondary School, spea1s
to students about Ebola during an
assembly in Abu4a, =igeria.Photo: AFP/Getty
Images
,he -orld >ealth ?rgani@ation released its own estimates ,uesday, also
warning that cases could soar dramatically.
,he U= agency, whose estimates were published online by the =ew
England /ournal of Medicine, said $1,&&& people could be infected in
Auinea, iberia and Sierra eone by early =o3ember.
->? said the death rate has been about B& percent among hospitali@ed
patients.
Auessing the epidemic8s path 0 especially in the long term 0 is di+cult,
e.perts said.
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A health wor1er sprays a man suspected of ha3ing died of Ebola with
disinfectant chemicals in iberia.Photo: AP
,his is a bit li1e weather forecasting. -e can do it a few days in ad3ance,
but loo1ing a few wee1s or months ahead is 3ery di+cult,: said 5hristopher
6ye, ->? director of strategy and co#author of the organi@ation8s study. >e
added) C-e8re beginning to see some signs in the response that gi3es us
hope this increase in cases won8t happen.:
ast wee1, the US announced it would build more than a do@en medical
centers in iberia and send %,&&& troops.
!ritain and France ha3e also pledged to build treatment centers in Sierra
eone and Auinea, and the -orld !an1 and U=75EF ha3e sent more than D1
million worth of supplies to the region.
Sierra eone on Sunday completed a three#day loc1down in what was
belie3ed to be the most dramatic disease#control measure ta1en since the
plague was ra3aging Europe in the Middle Ages.
,he nation8s president said it was so successful that a second one is being
considered.
7n an indication that the crisis is worse
than the o+cial numbers suggest, health
teams that went door#to#door in Sierra
eone identi9ed 1%& con9rmed cases of
Ebola and B& suspected cases.
7n addition, *$ bodies were found, though
it was not clear how many had Ebola.
,he 5658s worst#case numbers seem
Csomewhat pessimistic: and Eawed for
not accounting for the infection#control
e2orts already under way, said 6r.
<ichard -en@el, a Firginia
5ommonwealth Uni3ersity scientist who formerly led the 7nternational
Society for 7nfectious 6iseases.
Another outside e.pert Guestioned ->?8s pro4ections and said Ebola8s
spread would ultimately be slowed not only by containment measures but
by changes in people8s beha3ior.
Ebola outbrea1s usually end when people stop touching the sic1,: said 6r.
Armand Sprecher, an infectious#disease specialist at 6octors -ithout
!orders.
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A charity wor1er, from the A?A
7reland humanitarian agency,
educates children on how to
pre3ent and identify Ebola in their
communities at Freetown, Sierra
eone.Photo: AP
ocal health o+cials ha3e launched campaigns to educate people about
Ebola8s symptoms and to warn them not to touch the sic1 or the dead.
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Posted by Thavam