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=
j i
OUT c i
i
j
c a
c u
CP
) (
) (
N (1)
Where: u(c
i
) is the unavailability of component c
i
.
a(c
i
) is the availability of component c
i
u(c
i
) + a(c
i
) = 1, for every component c
i
.
OUT
j
is the set of independent components c
i
which are simulated for situation j
The Normalized Coefficient of Probability is not, properly
speaking, a probability, but the ratio of two probabilities. It is
the unavailability of the component(s) divided by the
unavailability of the component(s). A Risk Index, e.g., for
thermal overloads, is defined by the sum of the products of the
NCP and the associated thermal overloads for all simulated
outage situations, as shown in the following equation.
{ }
=
Situations Simulated j
j
OVimpact NCP PRI OV
j
_
(2)
with OVimpact expressed in MVA or MW.
In practice, simultaneous independent failures of multiple
components have exponentially diminishing probabilities.
Therefore, with an engineering approach to the problem of
estimating the risk index, it is only necessary to identify those
components the failures of which, singly or in combination,
have significant probabilities and significant impacts.
This method for Probabilistic Reliability Assessment provides
a transition from the deterministic contingency criteria and
makes use of the power of fast contingency simulation with
probabilistic calculation.
D. Probabilistic Reliability Criterion
In fact, the highly difficult problem of defining and agreeing
on a particular satisfactory level of Probabilistic Reliability
Criterion for transmission planning and operation is now
possible. The reasoning is as follows.
Because utilities have operated for years using the
deterministic criterion of single contingency for
transmission outages, it is possible to translate that
criterion into a probabilistic reliability index level by
computing the PRI along the single contingency walls of the
Community Activity Room and averaging them to a single
value.
In order to do this calibration, it is necessary to characterize an
advanced Community Activity Room in a probabilistic way,
which paints the color bands as ranges of PRI values. Then, by
integrating and averaging the PRI values along the walls of the
deterministic Community Activity Room, one can calibrate the
equivalence of the deterministic contingency criterion as a PRI
level. With this equivalence established, by operating to this
new PRI level, the true reliability performance of the grid will
be comparable to the past experience of operating under the
deterministic contingency criterion.
E. Visualization of Probabilistic Community Activity Room
By combining NCPs with the overload equations derived for
the deterministic Community Activity Room, the Risk Index
(PRI) values for all points in the state space can be computed
and painted in color bands. For illustration, by assuming the
same value of NCP for all single contingencies, the same
system shown in Figure 3 was painted showing the Risk Index
(PRI) values in color bands. This is shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7 Probabilistic Community Activity Room
with SW Export = 0 MW and Each Color Band = 0.3 MW of
PRI. (Note: the border between the blue and the yellow zones
is the line with PRI=0.3 MW)
More research is needed to validate this concept and develop a
practical analysis tool for large systems. Figure 7 is based on
about 100 active constraints and the NCP values were generic
estimates assumed to be equal for all contingencies. The white
zone represents PRI=0 and corresponds exactly to the white
zone in Figure 3. In deriving Figure 7, contingencies with
order two and higher were not simulated. If they were, even
though their NCP values would be small, the white zone would
be smaller, and the border between the white and the blue zone
would not be the same as that in Figure 3. In fact, by
integrating the values of PRI along the border (or the surface)
of the white zone in Figure 3, using the values of PRI in Figure
7, will produce a value to equate the traditional deterministic
single-contingency criterion with the probabilistic reliability
criterion, as discussed previously. Another way of looking at
Figure 7 is to see the border between the blue and the yellow
zones as a reliability boundary at the constant PRI value of 0.3
MW. If it is determined by a reliability organization that it is
sufficient for an operator to maintain a reliability level of PRI
<= 0.3 MW, then the white and blue zones represent safe areas
for operation, and the border between the blue and the yellow
zones represents a reliability wall of the Community Activity
Room.
This effect is shown in another example illustrated in Figures 8
and 9, where Figure 6 shows only N-1 contingencies and
Figure 9 shows also N-2 contingencies. The border enclosing
the white area represents the boundary of operation which
respects the loss of a single transmission line. In Figure 9, with
both N-1 and N-2 contingencies simulated and the NCPs are
used to compute the PRI, the white area becomes smaller, and
the same border superimposed on Figure 9 shows that
respecting N-1 criteria (staying on the inside of that border)
incurs risks due to N-2 contingencies. Thus, if the system has
accepted N-1 criteria as satisfactory reliability, then one can
compute the average PRI along that border in Figure 9, or in
such modeling which incorporates all higher-order
contingencies as well.
Figure 8 Probabilistic Community Activity Room
with only N-1 Contingencies
Therefore, it can be observed that if the community adopts a
probabilistic reliability criterion, it opens up the possibility of
enlarging the interior of the Community Activity Room using a
quantitative and consistent reliability measure. It will also
enable the community to trade off between reliability levels
and economic benefits from greater amounts of wholesale
power transactions.
Figure 9 Probabilistic Community Activity Room
with N-1 and N-2 Contingencies
When an online Probabilistic Community Activity Room is
displayed for the entire community to see, it is quite
conceivable that reliability can be turned into an equivalent
energy product that has a monetary value. For example, parties
who would benefit from additional wholesale transactions
among themselves could determine that with their proposed
transactions, the operating point would violate the reliability
criterion by a certain amount, as seen in the Probabilistic
Community Activity Room. They also know the monetary
benefits to them. If an insurance policy can be bought based on
the additional risk and over the duration of the new
transactions, and the premium is less than the value of the
transactions, it may be an economical decision to proceed with
the transactions. Self insurance and commercial insurance
policies are both possible ways of enabling the tradeoff
between reliability and wholesale power transactions.
IV. CONCLUSION
This article has provided the foundation for the concept and
the technology of the Community Activity Room applied to
transmission operation and planning. The author believes that
the concept has tremendous potential for taking the power
industry into the next generation of tools for both operation
and planning. The key features of this technology are as
follows:
It captures a complicated problem with huge dimensions
into something visualized in aggregated dimensions.
It changes the mind-set of doing analysis based on an
operating point (or limited number of points) to a new
mind-set of analytically representing all operating points
in the state space.
It enables the use of computer to pre-compute the
Community Activity Room for different network topology
conditions, and use the applicable views of the
Community Activity Room for online monitoring and
remedial actions. This enables instantaneous reliability
monitoring and faster operator guidance than what is
possible in todays control centers.
By displaying the online Community Activity Room in the
inter-regional dimensions for both the market participants
and the reliability authorities, it enables them to see the
close relationship between commercial activities and
reliability and it engenders the sense of community.
It enables the computation of a Probabilistic Reliability
Index to jump from the current state of the art of a single
point computation to a complete characterization in the
entire state space.
It enables a transition from deterministic transmission
reliability criteria to probabilistic transmission reliability
criteria, with a reasonable approach for setting an
equivalent probabilistic reliability standard.
Eventually, when the availability and the quality of the
probabilistic data are adequate, the Probabilistic
Community Activity Room will create a new market for
reliability insurance and tradable reliability products.
V. REFERENCES
[1] E. Hnyilicza, S. T. Y. Lee, F. C. Schweppe, Steady-State
Security Regions: Set-Theoretic Approach, Proceedings
of the IEEE PICA Conference, pp. 347-355, 1975.
[2] V. Sermanson, N. Maruejouls, S. Lee, et al, Probabilistic
Reliability Assessment of the North American Eastern
Interconnection Transmission Grid, CIGRE, 2002.
[3] N. Maruejouls, V. Sermanson, and S. Lee, Probabilistic
Reliability Assessment Application to the U.S. Eastern
Interconnection, EdF/EPRI, 2002.
VI. BIOGRAPHIES
Stephen T. Lee (M69, SM75) is Senior
Technical Leader, Grid Operations and
Planning, in EPRI. Dr. Lee has over 30
years of power industry experience. He
received his S.B., S.M. and Ph.D. degrees
from M.I.T. in Electrical Engineering,
majoring in Power System Engineering. He
worked for Stone & Webster Engineering in
Boston, Systems Control, Inc. (now ABB) in
California, and he was Vice President of
Consulting for Energy Management
Associates (EMA). Before joining EPRI in
1998, Dr. Lee was an independent
Consultant in utility planning and operation. At EPRI, Stephen Lee is leading
technical research programs for grid operations and planning. He is also
active in cooperative projects with the North American Electric Reliability
Council (NERC) related to interregional operation and planning. He has been
actively developing new concepts and tools for power system operation and
probabilistic transmission planning.