Shalimar Infotech PVT LTD: Hdpe - Import Data & Pricing Analysis JUNE 2014

HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
JUNE 2014

INDEX
Particulars Page No.

Particulars Page No.
JUNE REPORT MAIN POINTERS 01 HDPE OFFERS 15

IMPORT SNAPSHOT CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO
HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT 02 HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 16
HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS 03 ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS 16
HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN 03 INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY 17
INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN 04 INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY 17
INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN 05 INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY 18
SOURCE COUNTRY DESTINATION PORT MATRIX JUNE 2014 06 INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY 18

PRODUCT PRICING GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES 19
HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING 08
HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN) 09 INDIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 20
M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE 10
HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11 CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD 21
HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT 11
ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT 12 INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2014-15 22
MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS 13
DISCLAIMER 23
IMPORTANT GLOBAL NEWS 14

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HDPE IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400018, INDIA | Email: info@polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 1

High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE)

June Report Main Pointers

HDPE import volume increased in the month of June
HDPE grades witnessed no price change except for the Pipe grade which saw a fall of 0.88% in monthly average prices
HDPE accounted for 33.50% of all PE that was imported into India
89.47% of the HDPE that was imported into India in June was sourced from the Middle East region
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Singapore and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.
JNPT, Chennai, Mundra, Tuticorin and Cochin seaports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports
HDPE was sourced from a total of 18 countries with 26 ports in India being the destination points
Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of June
Nymex crude and Dated Brent prices saw a net upside
INR witnessed a net depreciation against the USD
Central Board of Excise & Customs notifications on import/export USD exchange rates are as follows:
Dated June 5
th
2014: 59.85/USD (for imports) & 58.85/USD (for exports)
Dated June 19
th
2014: 60.45/USD (for imports) & 59.45/USD (for exports)

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Introduction

HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes
1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE
finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high
resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such
as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes.

HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food
containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.

Import Snapshot

Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot

HDPE Volume (MTS) M-o-M Change Value (Rs Crores) M-o-M Change
Jan-13 34253 -8.20% 270 -6.90%
Feb-13 28109 -17.94% 227 -15.93%
Mar-13 31391 11.68% 263 15.86%
Apr-13 29322 -6.59% 249 -5.32%
May-13 31949 8.96% 266 6.83%
Jun-13 33839 5.92% 285 7.14%
Jul-13 29801 -11.93% 266 -6.67%
Aug-13 25050 -15.94% 232 -12.78%
Sep-13 24385 -2.65% 244 5.17%
Oct-13 27253 11.76% 264 8.20%
Nov-13 24461 -10.24% 240 -9.09%
Dec-13 29833 21.96% 287 19.58%
Jan-14 30086 0.85% 293 2.09%
Feb-14 38919 29.36% 382 30.38%
Mar-14 35708 -8.25% 351 -8.12%
Apr-14 36366 1.84% 352 0.28%
May-14 37020 1.80% 360 2.27%
Jun-14 37332 0.84% 360 0.00%
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Source: GoI Import Data

The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of June saw HDPE import
level at 37332 MTS which represents a rise of 0.84% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in June stood at Rs. 360 crores which is the same as
the preceding month.

Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports


The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE
imported into India.

Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown


The above table lists the region-
wise breakdown of imported
HDPE. The bulk of HDPE imported
by India is sourced from the
Middle East region.
HDPE Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
APAC 6.06% 6.72% 9.64% 7.00% 11.39% 7.20%
EUROPE 1.49% 1.31% 0.99% 1.08% 1.44% 0.99%
MIDDLE EAST 91.08% 90.59% 87.81% 89.69% 85.83% 89.47%
NORTH AMERICA 1.29% 1.32% 1.49% 1.83% 1.27% 2.27%
SOUTH AMERICA 0.08% 0.06% 0.07% 0.39% 0.06% 0.07%
Total
100.00% 100.00%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
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Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown


The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India in 2014.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Singapore and Kuwait were the largest exporters of HDPE to India.
HDPE (MTS) Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
AUSTRIA 11
BELGIUM 25 124 97
BRAZIL 25 25 25 143 23 25
CANADA 23 23 138 70 47
CHINA 31 5 158 132 94 45
FINLAND 2 25
FRANCE 15 58 61 61 25
GERMANY 335 279 241 221 129 157
HONGKONG 23 105
INDONESIA 88 35 210 67 1
IRAN 644 2178 297 198 443
JAPAN 366 388 423 391 383 277
KOREA 552 693 637 641 455 426
KUWAIT 1958 1715 1589 1774 1931 3059
MALAYSIA 102 136 260 34 188
NETHERLANDS 11
QATAR 9695 9590 10393 10281 9727 7523
SAUDI ARABIA 13180 17976 15702 15583 15144 17776
SINGAPORE 438 596 882 574 2797 899
SPAIN 50 50 53
SWEDEN 50 99 88 88 167 91
TAIWAN 46 51 272 17
THAILAND 198 822 726 427 388 853
UAE 1926 3799 3372 4979 4774 4599
USA 364 490 395 596 425 848
Total 30086 38919 35708 36366 37020 37332
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Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown


The table lists out the ports that handled the imported
HDPE in June 2014.

JNPT, Chennai, Mundra, Tuticorin and Cochin seaports
were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports in
India.

HDPE (MTS) Type Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
AHMEDABAD Dry 965 1387 634 607 931 418
BALLABHGARH Dry 61 82 17 13
BANGALORE Dry 56 211 160 144
BARODA DASHRATH Dry 90 198 256 272
BHUSAWAL Dry 1386 1139 891 1881 1485 198
CHENNAI Air 3
CHENNAI Sea 1575 3191 1803 2507 3016 2768
COCHIN Sea 834 833 1701 1422 1212 1424
DADRI ALBATROSS Dry 67 151 84 67 84
DADRI CGM Dry 67 84
DELHI Air 12
GOA Sea 116 224 346 373 324 248
HARASARU GARI Dry 362 344 315 261 330 277
HYDERABAD Air 1
HYDERABAD Dry 492 988 662 980 708 457
JNPT Sea 19035 23181 20454 18387 20652 21850
JODHPUR CONCOR Dry 141
KANDLA Sea 124 124
KANPUR JRY Dry 15 15
KOLKATA Air 4
KOLKATA Sea 270 786 1481 749 1020 1272
LUDHIANA Dry 48 64 64
MANGALORE Sea 190 197 404 396 198 411
MUMBAI Air 2 6
MUNDRA Sea 305 843 1578 2212 2438 1485
NAGPUR Dry 10 5 5 10
NASHIK Dry 9 14 5 9
PATLI Dry 43 59
PATPARGANJ Dry 2 2 4 10 3
PITHAMPUR Dry 248 215 198 1138
REWARI Dry 52 59 18 18 7
SANAND Dry 208 192
TONDIARPET Dry 36 74
TUGHLAKABAD Dry 945 1190 1831 1843 1282 1246
TUTICORIN Dry 229 936 513 245 226 324
TUTICORIN Sea 2449 2756 2035 3020 1883 3077
VAPI Dry 213 319 298 341 372 379
VIZAG Sea 32 32 64 80 40
Total 30086 38919 35708 36366 37020 37332
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix June 2014

SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
BELGIUM JNPT 97
BRAZIL HYDERABAD 25
BANGALORE 20
JNPT 25
FRANCE JNPT 25
HARASARU GARI 50
JNPT 80
KOLKATA 23
MUMBAI 6
INDONESIA HYDERABAD 1
IRAN JNPT 443
BANGALORE 30
CHENNAI 15
HARASARU GARI 194
JNPT 35
PATPARGANJ 3
CHENNAI 272
COCHIN 322
JNPT 1425
MUNDRA 99
TUTICORIN 594
VAPI 347
CHINA
GERMANY
JAPAN
KUWAIT
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
JNPT 153
TUTICORIN 35
AHMEDABAD 192
CHENNAI 832
COCHIN 527
JNPT 4733
KOLKATA 352
MUNDRA 544
TUGHLAKABAD 240
TUTICORIN 32
VAPI 32
VIZAG 40
CHENNAI 25
JNPT 874
JNPT 25
TUGHLAKABAD 66
CHENNAI 37
HARASARU GARI 16
JNPT 747
KOLKATA 54
KOREA JNPT 426
THAILAND
MALAYSIA
QATAR
SINGAPORE
SWEDEN
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Exhibit: Source Country Destination Port Matrix June 2014


The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the
source countries for the month of June 2014. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided.
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
AHMEDABAD 226
BANGALORE 74
BHUSAWAL 198
CHENNAI 1545
COCHIN 543
DADRI ALBATROSS 84
HYDERABAD 432
JNPT 9950
KOLKATA 744
MANGALORE 114
MUNDRA 74
PITHAMPUR 248
TUGHLAKABAD 805
TUTICORIN 324
TUTICORIN 2416
BANGALORE 20
HARASARU GARI 18
JNPT 780
NAGPUR 10
TUGHLAKABAD 20
USA
SAUDI ARABIA
SOURCE PORT
Volume
(MTS)
Sea
Port
Dry
Port
Air
Port
CHENNAI 41
COCHIN 33
GOA 248
JNPT 2033
KOLKATA 99
MANGALORE 297
MUNDRA 767
NASHIK 9
PATLI 59
PITHAMPUR 891
REWARI 7
TUGHLAKABAD 116
UAE
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HDPE India Pricing

Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades. Three month and six month averages are also provided. HDPE grades
witnessed no change in prices in the month of June except for the Pipe grade.

HDPE Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Jun-14 106.96 109.29 109.83 112.43 108.34
May-14 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.43 108.34
Apr-14 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.43 108.34
Mar-14 107.92 109.65 110.79 113.79 113.30
Feb-14 107.96 109.29 110.83 113.43 113.34
Jan-14 105.54 106.87 108.41 111.51 111.42
Dec-13 102.80 103.63 105.67 108.27 108.68
Nov-13 101.71 102.54 104.58 107.18 107.59
Oct-13 101.46 102.29 104.33 106.93 107.34
Sep-13 104.56 105.39 107.43 109.03 110.44
Aug-13 95.96 96.82 99.97 100.48 101.94
Jul-13 95.46 96.32 99.47 99.98 101.44
Jun-13 90.71 91.51 94.61 94.99 96.61
May-13 85.99 86.79 89.89 89.97 91.39
Apr-13 85.80 86.60 89.70 90.05 91.20
Mar-13 87.80 88.60 91.70 92.27 93.20
Feb-13 87.96 88.76 91.86 92.43 93.36
Jan-13 85.64 86.44 89.54 90.11 92.80
3 Month Avg 106.96 109.29 109.83 113.10 108.34
6 Month Avg 107.05 108.95 109.92 113.00 110.51
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Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film. HDPE Film prices registered a price of Rs. 106.96 per Kg in the
month of June.

HDPE Film Minimum Maximum
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14 106.96 107.96
Feb-14
Jan-14 104.46 105.96
Dec-13 102.46 103.46
Nov-13 100.96 102.46
Oct-13 100.96 101.96
Sep-13 103.96 104.96
Aug-13
Jul-13 94.46 95.96
Jun-13 89.46 91.46
May-13 84.96 86.96
Apr-13 84.96 86.46
Mar-13 86.46 88.96
Feb-13
Jan-13 83.96 86.96
106.96
106.96
87.96
95.96
107.96
106.96
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Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic)

The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices.

HDPE Film Blow moulding Injection Pipe Raffia
Jun-14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.88% 0.00%
May-14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Apr-14 -0.89% -0.33% -0.87% -0.32% -4.38%
Mar-14 -0.04% 0.33% -0.04% 0.32% -0.04%
Feb-14 2.29% 2.26% 2.23% 1.72% 1.72%
Jan-14 2.67% 3.13% 2.59% 2.99% 2.52%
Dec-13 1.07% 1.06% 1.04% 1.02% 1.01%
Nov-13 0.25% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23%
Oct-13 -2.96% -2.94% -2.89% -1.93% -2.81%
Sep-13 8.96% 8.85% 7.46% 8.51% 8.34%
Aug-13 0.52% 0.52% 0.50% 0.50% 0.49%
Jul-13 5.24% 5.26% 5.14% 5.25% 5.00%
Jun-13 5.49% 5.44% 5.25% 5.58% 5.71%
May-13 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% -0.09% 0.21%
Apr-13 -2.28% -2.26% -2.18% -2.41% -2.15%
Mar-13 -0.18% -0.18% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17%
Feb-13 2.71% 2.68% 2.59% 2.57% 0.60%
Jan-13 3.32% 3.26% 3.13% 3.11% 2.75%
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Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year
time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of June 2013 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of June 2014 = Rs. 106.96 per Kg
% Price change in 1 year = 25.89%

Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg
Basic)

The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a
three year time frame.

HDPE Film Price in the beginning of June 2011 = Rs. 69.01 per Kg
HDPE Film Price at the end of June 2014 = Rs. 106.96 per Kg
% Price change in 3 years = 54.99%

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Exhibit: Ethylene India Price Movement

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT)

Ethylene price in the beginning of June 2014 = 1455 USD per MT
Ethylene price at the end of June 2014 = 1450 USD per MT
% price change in June 2014 = -0.34%

Ethylene prices witnessed a net downside in the month of June.
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Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends

Source: PolymerUpdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty),
LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET
(Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)]

The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is Up, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the
value is Down, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the
value is No Change, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India
price movements of the following grades: HDPE Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk
Pouch; LLDPE Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQ
Film; PVC - Suspension; PET Bottle; PS GPPS, HIPS; EVA.
Price Trends HDPE LDPE LLDPE PP PVC PS PET EVA
Jan-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Feb-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Mar-13 Down Up Up Down Up Up Down Up
Apr-13 Down Down Down Down Down No Change Down Down
May-13 Up Up Up Up Down Down No Change Down
Jun-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Jul-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Aug-13 Up Up Up No Change No Change Up Up Down
Sep-13 Up Up Up Up Up Up Up Up
Oct-13 Down Down Down Down Down Down Down Down
Nov-13 Up Down Down Down Down Down Down Up
Dec-13 Up Up Up Up Up No Change No Change Up
Jan-14 Up Up Up Up Up Up No Change Up
Feb-14 Up Up Up Up Up Up Down Up
Mar-14 Up Up No Change Down No Change Up Down Up
Apr-14 Down Up Up Down No Change Down Down Down
May-14 No Change Up Up Up Up Up No Change No Change
Jun-14 No Change Down Down Down Up Down Down Down
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Important Global News

Shenhua Baotou Coal Chemical is likely to shut a linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)/ high density polyethylene (HDPE) swing plant. A
Polymerupdate source in China informed that the plant is likely to be shut in July 2014 for maintenance turnaround. It is expected to remain shut
for around one month. Located in Shenhua, China, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year

Petronas has restarted a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant following maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Malaysia informed
that the plant restarted in the last week of May. It was shut for a maintenance turnaround in early April 2014. Located at Kertih, Malaysia, the
plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year

Hungarian petrochemical major TVK has restarted a polyolefins complex following maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Hungary
informed that a 370,000 mt/year ethylene cracker at the complex restarted in early June 2014, following a maintenance turnaround of two weeks.
A 180,000 mt/year polypropylene (PP) plant at the same site restarted on May 24 following a turnaround of two weeks and a high density
polyethylene (HDPE) plant at the site resumed production on June 3 after a maintenance shutdown of around 3 weeks. The complex is located at
Tiszaujvaros in Hungary

PTT Global Chemical is in plans to shut its high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in
Thailand informed that the plant is likely to be shut in mid-June 2014. It is likely to remain off-stream for around two weeks. Located at Map Ta
Phut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year

Shanghai Petrochemical has shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the plant was shut on
June 17, 2014. The shutdown has been attributed to an accident at the plant. A restart date for the plant could not be ascertained. Located in
Shanghai, China, the plant has a production capacity of 250,000 mt/year

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

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HDPE Offers

The above table lists the HDPE offers along with other details that were captured by our team.

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence

Offered
Product
Offerred
on Basis
Offer Price
Offer
Unit
Offer from
Country
Offer to
Country
Expected Shipment Offer Date
Film CIF 1580 USD Middle East India Jun-14 3-Jun-14
Film CIF 1620 USD Saudi Arabia India Jun-14 3-Jun-14
Film CNF 1610 USD Saudi Arabia Vietnam Jul-14 17-Jun-14
Film CIF 1660 USD Thailand India Jul-14 23-Jun-14
Film CIF 1610 USD Saudi Arabia India end Jul 2014 25-Jun-14
Film CIF 1620-1630 USD Saudi Arabia India end Jul/early Aug 2014 30-Jun-14
Injection CIF 1640-1650 USD Saudi Arabia India end Jul/early Aug 2014 30-Jun-14
Film CIF 1630-1640 USD Middle East India end Jul/early Aug 2014 30-Jun-14
Film CIF 1640 USD Saudi Arabia India Jul-14 30-Jun-14
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Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario

Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)

Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India

Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPL-
Haldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum
Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)

HDPE Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 490 490 490 490
GAIL 700 700 700 700
HPL 550 550 550 550
IOCL 475 475 475 475
OPAL --- 720 720 720
BPCL 155 155 155 155
Ethylene Capacity (Kt) 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
RIL 1840 1840 3240 3240
GAIL 1000 1000 1000 1000
HPL 670 670 670 670
IOCL 857 857 857 857
BPCL - Assam GC 220 220 220 220
OPAL 0 1100 1100 1100
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Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply

The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot.

Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply

The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India.

HDPE (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E
HDPE Capacity 1690 1795 1795 1795 1830 2810 2810
LLD/HD Capacity 847 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007
Total Capacity 2537 2802 2802 2802 2837 3817 3817
Production 1216 1503 1501 1486 1621 2521 2606
Imports 330 385 440 410 480 220 230
Exports 55 227 160 115 65 368 500
Apparent Demand 1491 1661 1781 1781 2036 2373 2336
Demand Growth% 10.80% 11.40% 7.22% 0.00% 14.32% 16.55% -1.56%
All PE(Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E
Capacity 2826 2965 2980 2980 3065 5115 5565
Production 2072 2519 2457 2485 2654 4488 4996
Imports 970 1060 1217 1179 1313 790 730
Exports 65 251 170 125 77 588 730
Apparent Demand 2977 3328 3504 3539 3890 4690 4996
Demand Growth% 8.40% 11.79% 5.29% 1.00% 9.92% 20.57% 6.52%
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Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply

The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario.

Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability

All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.

Ethylene (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E
Capacity 3837 3907 3907 4157 5637 7127 7127
Production 3000 3355 3744 3985 5165 6755 6955
Imports 55 15 23 50 25 25 25
Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net Availability 3055 3370 3767 4035 5190 6780 6980
Polymers (Kt) 2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E
Capacity 8348 8487 8967 9882 10089 12290 12740
Production 6854 7682 7958 8424 9059 11311 12089
Operating Rate 82% 91% 89% 85% 90% 92% 95%
Imports 2087 2404 2970 2777 2957 2688 2907
Exports 722 1121 1057 1005 1215 1667 1641
Net Trade -1365 -1283 -1913 -1772 -1742 -1021 -1266
Apparent Demand 8219 8965 9871 10196 10801 12332 13355
Demand Growth% 7.40% 9.08% 10.11% 3.29% 5.93% 14.17% 8.30%
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GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures

Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals

The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12
2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth
rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.

5 Year Plan Parameter HDPE Ethylene CAGR
Capacity Creation 9.20% 9.00%
Demand 10.90% 7.00%
Capacity Creation 11.10% 12.90%
Demand 9.20% 12.40%
13th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2016/17 -
2021/22)
Demand 9.00% 0.80%
11th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2005/06 -
2011/12)
12th 5 Year Plan
Growth (2011/12 -
2016/17)
Actual
Projected
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India Import Duty Structure

Source: Government of India

Products Basic Duty %
Countervailing
Duty (CVD) %
Education Cess
on CVD %
Special
Additional Duty
(SAD) %
TOTAL DUTY %
LDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
LLDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HDPE 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Homopolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PP-Copolymer 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
GPPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
HIPS 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PVC 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
PET 7.5 12 3 4 25.852
INDIA
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Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD

Source: PolymerUpdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates

The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while
the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate.

INR value against the USD in the beginning of June 2014 = 59.13 per USD
INR value against the USD at the end of June 2014 = 60.19 per USD
% net value change in June 2014 = 1.79% (depreciation)

Dated Brent price in the beginning of June 2014 = 108.83 USD per barrel
Dated Brent price at the end of June 2014 = 112.36 USD per barrel
% net price change in June 2014 = 3.24%

Nymex crude price in the beginning of June 2014 = 102.47 USD per barrel
Nymex crude price at the end of June 2014 = 105.37 USD per barrel
% net price change in June 2014 = 2.83%

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India GDP Growth Projections 2014-15

Data collected from various sources

Organization GDP Growth
ADB 5.5%
Crisil 6.0%
DBS 5.5%
Goldman Sachs 5.5%
IMF 5.4%
World Bank 5.5%
FICCI 5.3%
NCAER 5.1-5.5%
GoI Economic Survey 5.4-5.9%
Moody's 5.5%
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We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis.

Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at info@polymerupdate.com.

Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such
information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament.
Please refer to Notification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm

The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals is owned by the Planning Commission,
Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.
Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an as is basis. We have
attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We
have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are
difficult to verify independently and may have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations;
hence some totals/subtotals may not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness
or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate.

In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any
expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of
this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.

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