QUIZ I

Professor Premchander selected a random sample of IIM-B students and

questioned them about their previous academic scores He then classified
these students in two ways:

1 Male and Female;
2 Excellent, Good and Average depending on their academic scores and
his subjective judgement.

He transferred the data onto a floppy and sent it to Professor AK Rao
for further analysis. Professor AKR decided to check whether the academic
background of a student depends on the sex of the student. When he tried to
read the data from the floppy, he realised, much to his dismay, that a strange
virus had struck. All that appeared on the monitor was.

EXCELLENT GOOD AVERAGE TOTAL

MALE : 15 15 30 60
FEMALE : 0 20 20 40

TOTAL ' 15 35 50 100
-------------------------------------------

Panic buttons were pressed but to no avail. Some of the data had been
deleted by the virus 'The vast experience of the faculty in the Quantitative
Area was called upon. After much brainstorming, this august gathering decided
that the following were self evident.
1 The events Male and Average were independent
2 P(Excellent or Good) = 0.5
3 P(Female) = 0.4
4. P(Good and Average) = 0.0

Help the GM Area by answering the following questions
each question is worth 1 point.
1. Can one say from the data that Female and Excellent are mutually
exclusive? Give reasons



2. Male and Good are independent? Give reasons


Suppose a person is randomly selected from this sample.

3. What is the probability that this person is Excellent given that the
person is Male?


4. What is the probability that this person is a Male?


5. What is the probability of this person is Good and Female?
QUIZ I
1. An expert is asked to estimate the characteristics of the monthly disposable income of a
population She estimates the average value to be Rs. 1000 and further that at least 75, of the
population must have a disposable income ranging between Rs. 600 and Rs. 1400. Using
these figures, determine a bound for the standard deviation of the population

2 Of the first year students at a IIMX, it is known that 60% are engineers The PGP office
reports that 30% of the non- engineers maintained an A average during their first year at the
college and that 25% of all first year students maintained an A average

a) If a student has A average, what is the probability that the student is an engineer?

b) Are the events A average and engineer

i) mutually exclusive? ii) independent?
Explain your answer in each case.

QUIZ II

1. Three clerks, X, Y and Z, all write special orders at a
bookstore. Mr. X writes 50% of all special orders; Mr. Y
writes 20% and Mr. Z 30%. We also know that Mr.X makes a
mistake on 1 out of 100 orders; Y makes a mistake 4% of the
time and Z makes a mistake 2% of the time. A customer
receives the wrong book and correctly maintains that there was
a mistake in taking the order. What are the prior and
posterior probabilities that Mr. Y wrote the order?


2. A person has the opportunity to work as a salesman for a
particular type of product at one of two companies. The sales
prospects are assessed as follows:

Sales( units/day) 0 1 2 3
Probability of sales at:
Company A 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1
Company B 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0

Earnings from Company B are purely on a commission basis, and
they offer Rs 200 per unit. Company A on the other hand
offers a fixed wage of Rs 100 per day plus a commission of Rs
100 per unit.

a) Determine the expected earnings from each company.

b) Determine the variance of the earnings from each company.

c) For each company, determine, if possible, the probability that
his earnings will exceed the expected earnings for that
company.


d) Which company should the person choose? Explain

QUIZ III

1 A sample is taken (without replacement) from a population
which contains l0% defectives. What is the probability that
the sample contains at the most one defective if:

(For each case, state the distribution; used particular distribution
is appropriate,and show all calculations.)

a) The population size is l,00.000 and the sample size is 100.


b) The population size is l,000 and the sample size is 10.


c) The population size is l0 and the sample size is 5.

2. Find the probability that the time required to perform an
operation is between 15 and 20 minutes if the distribution of
the time is:

a) Uniform between 10 and 30 minutes


b) Exponential with a mean of l0 minutes


QUIZ IV

1 A production process produces metal rods the diameter of which
should follow a normal distribution with a mean of 5 cm and a
variance of 0.015 cm2. A quality control specialist wants to
set up the 98% control limits to control the production
process (i.e. the probability of the sample statistic going
beyond these limits should not exceed 2%). It has been
decided that a sample of l~ will be taken. Determine
appropriate control limits for

a) the sample mean


b) the sample variance

2 A manufacturer wishes to be able to estimate to within 1% of
its true va1ue with 95% confidence the proportion of the
population than prefers his brand over any other. How large a sample
is needed? (Use the reverse side for your answer).









QUIZ V

1 A null hypothesis that the mean life of an electron tube is
l,600 hr is to tested against an alternate hypothesis that the
mean life is as low as 1,570 hr. The test is at a
significance level of 0.0l. Sixteen random observations of
tube life yield a mean life of l,590 hr and a standard
deviation of 30 hr.

a) State the decision rule

b) What is the value of ?

c) Perform the hypothesis test and state the result

2. Two manufacturing processes, A and B can be used to
manufacture copper wire. Management wants to know whether the
new process B is better than the existing process A. For this
purpose, a sample of ten lengths of wire is taken from each
process and the breaking strength determined The sample from
process A gave a mean of 563 units and a standard deviation of
5 units whereas the sample from B gave a mean of 570 units and
a standard deviation of 5 units. Set up appropriate hypotheses
and state the result. (Choose any significance level).

QUIZ VI

1 An instructor wishes to determine the day of the week that is
best suited for an examination He feels that all working
days of the week are equally preferable to students. However
he selects a random sample of 60 students and obtains their
preferences as follows: Monday (6) Tuesday (12) Wednesday
(15), Thursday (18), and Friday (9) State and test the
instructor's hypothesis at the 5% significance level.

2 It is desired to investigate the effect of heat treatment on
the surface finish of a material For this purpose, an
experiment is performed as follows: Four different types of
heat treatment are chosen Each treatment is applied to four
different steel pieces chosen randomly from a set of sixteen
identical steel pieces The data are analyzed to give the
following numbers: Sum of squares between treatments 31.25
Sum of squares within treatments = 42.5. Use this data to
develop an ANOVA table State and test the appropriate
hypothesis at the 5% significance level.












END--TERM EXAMINATION
Time Allowed: 3 hours
1. (15 points)

You have been appointed as a project director for an advisory
group in Bangalore. You are studying the background
information of your new staff, which you have not met You
find the following:

-----------------------------------------------------
Staff Job Number
classification Classification of persons
-----------------------------------------------------

Professional Staff Economist 10
Chemist 6
Engineer 14

Support Staff Secretary 20
Peon 5

-----------------------------------------------------

Everyone has just one job classification. Half of the
secretaries of chemists, and economists are female, but only
four of the engineers and none of the peons are of that
gender. Everyone speaks English except fifteen secretaries
and all the peons. Everyone speaks Kannada except one male
and one female chemist, six of the male engineers, and two of
the female economists.

a) Are the following events mutually exclusive? Explain.
i) Peon and English-speaking.
ii) Secretary and non-Kannada speaking.
iii) Female and non-Kannada speaking.

b) Are sex and job classification independent? Explain.

c) Are sex and staff classification independent? Explain

The day after you arrive, the entire professional staff
scheduled to visit Mallaya's plantation. Two peons are with
you and Mallya; the rest of the professional staff is
scattered all over the plantation. Mallya asks a question
which requires consultation with either an engineer or a
chemist. You tell a peon to summon either an engineer or a
chemist; he replies "Yes, sir! he and takes off.

There are a few things you do not know. First, the Peon does
not know an economist from a chemist or an engineer. But you
are a new boss he and he does not want to ask questions
Second in order to get right back for the next message, the
peon will approach the first professional staff he sees-
random selection), blurt out the message in Kannada,and
return too quickly for anyone else to give him a message.
Further the peon is never sure who speaks Kannada, and he assumes that everyone
does.

d) What is the probability that the message is delivers to a
Kannada-speaking professional staff member?

e) What is the probability that the message is delivered to a
chemist or an engineer who speaks Kannada?

Two neighbouring plantation owners arrive. They both have
economics-type questions, but they are not anxious to have
each other included in the discussion. You send one peon in
search of an economist and, before he returns, you send the second (whose
behaviour is identical to the first) in search of another.

f) What is the probability that two economists will show up?

g) As the discussion continues. you find that the two visiting
plantation owners hate intelligent women. What is the probability
that two women will show up?

2 (15 points)
Ajit is a graduate from IIMX who has recently joined Vidyut
electricals who make transformers. The average life of the
transformers is advertised as 2 years and 3 months. One find
morning, his boss wants to know what percentage of the
transformers will last more than five years and he needs this
information urgently. Ajit remembers that this question can
be answered if he knows the distribution of the transformer
life. Furthermore, he suspects that the distribution of the
life must be exponential. He desperately makes calls to as
many customers as possible during the morning. The customers
do not remember the exact time the failure occurred. However,
he is able to extract the following information:

Time interval (years) 0-1 1-2 2-3 >3
Number of failures 21 16 9 4
a) Ajit first wants to verify whether the life-time distribution
is what he suspects. State and test the appropriate hypotheses at the 5%
significance level.

b) What reply should Ajit give his boss?

3. (15 points)
A bank allows customers to pay telephone bills through their
account. The bank is interested in determining the value of
the telephone bills payed through its accounts. A random
sample of 2025 accounts showed that 1620 have paid telephone
bills through their accounts during the past month. The
amount of telephone bills charged for each of the l620
accounts yielded X =Rs. 8,10,000 and X = 40,51,61,900 Rs2.
a) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all
accounts which payed telephone bill last month.


b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean telephone
bill for the population of account holders who pay telephone
bills through their accounts.

b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean telephone
bill for all accounts.

4.(10 points)
A survey is conducted to determine the likelihood 0f buying
various products. Twenty products were described in
questionnaires administered to 100 married couples.
Respondents were asked to rate on a scale of 1 (definitely
want to buy) to 7(definitely do not want to buy) their
likelihood of buying each product. Of the l00 couples, 50
received questionnaires without pictures of the products
(Group 1) and 50 received questionnaires with pictures (Group
2). A couple's buying score is simply the sum of all ratings
assigned to products by the husband and wife individually.
Low scores indicate buyers while high scores indicate
reluctance to buy. An SPSS analysis of the data that was
collected is shown below.

Independent samples of VISUAL

Group 1 : VISUAL EQ 0 Group 2 : VISUAL EQ 1

t-test for : FAMSCORE

Number
of cases Mean Standar Standard
Deviation Error

Group 1 50 168.0000 21.787 3.081
Group 2 48 159.0833 27.564 3.979


Pooled Variance Estimate Separate Variance Estimate

F 2-Tail t Degrees of 2 Tail t Degree of 2 Tail
Value Prob Value Freedom Prob. Value Freedom prob.

1.60 0.106 1.78 96 0.078 1.77 89.43 0.080


a) Which variance estimate should be used (pooled or separate)?
Explain.

We want to test the hypothesis that the presence of pictures
has no influence on the likelihood of buying. What is the
result of the test if the alternate hypothesis is that:

b) Pictures do influence the likelihood of buying?

c) Pictures increase the likelihood of buying?



5. (10 points)
Daily sales data for two products Anita and Binaca, are as
Follows (Some ranks have been given to simplify your work):
Sales data of Anita

Obs 100 125, 60, 137, 82, 99, 150, 98, 143, 122, 95, 110
Rank 10 . . 19 . 9 . . 20 . 6 .

Sales data of Binaca

Obs 82. 98, 115, 144, 65, 123, 128, 93, 135, 120
Rank 4 . 12 . 2 15 . 5 . 13


Use the U-Test to determine whether the distributions of daily
sales Anitha and Binaca can be taken to be the same.

6. (15 points)
The time (in minutes) spent on the coffee break by five
randomly chosen employees, one from each of the Machine Shops
was recorded on 6 days. For some employees, the fewer number
of observations is an indication of they being absent on some
of those 6 days

Employees
----------------------------------------------------------

Observation A B C D E
No.
----------------------------------------------------------

1 13 23 24 18 21
2 15 19 23 17 23
3 11 19 28 21 17
4 15 23 26 15 23
5 16 - 24 16 17
6 - - 27 - 21
----------------------------------------------------------


The supervisor is curious to know whether the workers take
about the same average coffee-break time.


a) State the assumptions of parametric procedure suitable to
respond to the supervisor an curiosity.

b) What is your advice to the supervisor? (Use the appropriate
parametric procedure and show all calculations).

Information you may wish to use

Employee A B C D E
Sum of observations 70 84 152 87 122

Sum of Squares of All 28 observations = 10699.

7. (10 points)
The Manager of a sales agency with 17 sales representatives
would like to initiate a new formula for calculating sales
commissions. He believes that the new formula will increase
the amount (in rupees) of the commissions of the majority of
the representatives. After much thought, he felt it would be a
good Idea: if it works then both representatives and the
agency stand to gain. To try it out, he collected past data
and calculated the commission using both the old formula and
the new formulae with the following results.

Salesman 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
---------------------------------------------------------------

Old Formula: 219 150 180 200 210 426 330 325 208

New Formula: 240 148 190 210 225 450 315 340 213
---------------------------------------------------------------


Salesman 10 11 12 13 14 15 18 17
---------------------------------------------------------------

Old Formula: 105 360 219 210 460 135 215 80
New Formula: 100 375 200 190 485 145 210 75
---------------------------------------------------------------


Analyze the data and state your recommendation to Agency
Manager. Use a significance level of 5%.

8 (10 points)

A supplier of party snacks is supposed to visit a shop every
day to check whether they need orders. However, based on
previous experience, the shop owner has concluded that he
shows up only 80 percent of the time.

The shop owner would like to determine the maximum number days
in a month (30 days) the supplier may not show up in normal
course.



a) State the null hypothesis and identify the upper limit for
the number of days of absence that can be tolerated. Use a
significance level of 10%.

More recently the supplier has not been regular. It is now
suspected that the probability of his not showing up has
doubled to 40 percent.

b) What is the probability that the shop owner concludes that the
supplier's No show rate is still the same (i.e. 20%)?



MOCK MID TERM
INSTRUCTIONS

1. Please read the questions carefully before answering. .

2. The questions are complete in all respects. However in case of
missing. data assume appropriate value and clearly show your
assumptions -

3. The aim of the test is to give you a flair of the type of
questions expected in the mid term. Therefore, take care of time
distribution



1. In a class of 20 students there are 8 girls and rest boys A
group of S students is to be drawn from this class. If the number of
girls in the group (say X) is taken to be a random variable,


a) List the distribution followed by the random variable X.


b) What is E(X) and SD(X).


c) Based on Chebychev theorem what percentage of X value shall lie
within a range of plus-minus 2.055*SD(X).


d) What percentage of values as shown by the distribution in (a) falls
within this range ?


e) What is the reason for difference in (d) and (C) above ?


2. The arrival of a boxcar at a station follows a Poisson distribution
with mean equal to 4 cars/day. However, the transportation department
has received complaints about irregularity in arrival of these cars
To check this out Inspector Gattu has been asked to watch the number
of arrivals throughout the day for a week. Gattu has been given the
instruction to report back the situation as

Critical - if the number of arrivals per day is 2 or less.
Average - if the number of arrivals per day is between 2 or 5
Good - if the number of arrivals per day is 5 or more

Inspector Gattu has to sent a confidential report to Superintendent
Gabbar. The report is coded as "Situation under control" if the number
of 'good' is more than or equal to 4. Otherwise the report is
'Situation out of control". What is the probability that the
condition is under control ?




3. The percent of defective bulbs manufactured from a line follows a
normal distribution with mean of 10%. and standard' deviation of 4%.
A pack of bulb has 50 bulbs and' the production per day is 50
packs. At the end' of the day 5 packs are randomly chosen If a pack is
found' to contain more than six defective bulbs then the pack is
labeled' 'Reject'. Out of the five packs chosen what are the chances
that
(a) at least 2 are 'Reject .
(b) exactly 3 are 'Reject'.
(C) none of the packs are 'Reject'.
What is the distribution used' to obtain the answers (a) to (c) ?
What distribution would' be used' if the management starts doing quality
check for a weekly production of 300 packs and' by drawing up a sample
of 50 packs ?
4. At a certain machine shop, the store stocks bearings from three
suppliers A, B and' C. Past record's have shown that the life of the
bearing is exponentially distributed' with an average of 500, 600 and'
800 hours. On a particular day the stocks are 5 bearings from A, 2
bearings from B and 3 bearings from C. If one bearing is chosen from
this stock and' is used for replacement, and it'. is found that the
bearing. had an average life of 1600 hours, what is the probability
that the bearing came from supplier A ? supplier B? Supplier C?
Supposing that the bearing came from the most likely supplier, what is
the probability that another bearing from the same supplier will last
for 2000 hrs ?
5. Bacilius Maximus, a strain of bacteria causes insomnia amongst the
MBAs. It's effect can be reduced' by VAT 69 by 40%. It can also be
reduced by XXX Rum by 60% If both of these are taken the effects are
supposed to be independent. During the Mid terms, out of the 200 PGP
Is, 40 take VAT 69 while 80 take XXX Rum 20 took both. The initial
probability of getting this virus is 0.4. What is the expected number
of people having insomnia. If 3 out of 10 people in a sample have
insomnia what are the chances that they belong to the group which took
both XXX Rum and' VAT 69 ?
6. Three doctors (who are considered' equally reliable in their
claims) make conflicting statements that the number of deaths due to
malnutrition in a month in a tribal area is given by a poisson
distribution with mean equal to 1.2, 2.1 and' 3.2 respectively. It was
found' that the number of deaths in a month was actually 3. What is the
probability of 3 deaths given that mean is actually 1.2 ? is actually
2.1 and' is actually 3.2 ? What is the probability that the number of
deaths is 3 in a month ?
QUIZ I

1. A market research firm is trying to estimate the number of
families in a city that have a monthly income exceeding Rs. 10,000.
It is known from previous studies that this city has a population
of 1 lakh families and furthermore that the family income in this
city has a mean of Rs 3,000 per month and a standard deviation of
Rs. 3,000 per month What can you say about the number being
estimated?
2. A service-person finds that the number of customers he has to visit'.
on any particular day is equally likely to be 1, 2, or 3. If it is
also equally likely that a customer does or does not give him a
tip, find the probability that he gets at least one tip on a
particular day.

QUIZ II


1. Of 100 patients in a hospital with a certain disease, ten are
chosen to undergo a drug treatment that increases the percentage
cured rate from 50% in the untreated case to 75%. If a doctor
later encounters a cured patient, what is the probability that he
received the drug treatment?
2. In a certain community, every couple stops producing children
after a son is born to them. Assuming that the probability of
getting a male or a female child are equal,

a) What is the average number of children per couple?

b) What proportion of couples will have more than 3 children?

c) What proportion of couples will have no children?

d) What is the maximum number of children per couple if we consider
any Probability less than .1% as insignificant?

3. Seven people enter an elevator at the ground floor and exit
randomly at one of five floors above the ground floor What is the
probability that:

a) All people exit on the same floor?

b) Exactly two people exit on the third floor?

c) Nobody exits on the first floor?

d) At the most three people exit on the fifth floor.
QUIZ III

1. At a certain college there are 5370 students. Some students recently proposed
the idea of starting a music club which will require a subscription of Rs. 5 per
month. An interview of random sample of 40 students indicated that 12 of them
were willing to join the club at that subscription rate. Develop a 95%
confidence interval for the number of students that can be expected to join the
club.

2. In an air pollution study, the following amounts of suspended benzene-
soluble organic matter (in micrograms per cubic meter) were obtained at an
experimental station for eight different samples of air : 2.2, 1.6, 3.1,
2.0, 2.4, 2.1, and 1.2. Assuming that the population is normally
distributed, construct a 99% confidence interval for the true mean.

3. A manufacturing process produces components with an average weight of 2000
grams and a standard deviation of 75 grams. A sample of 25 items from the
process yielded a standard deviation of 85 grams. Can we justifiably
conclude that the variance of the process has increased? Explain your
answer:





QUIZ IV
To find out whether the inhabitants of two islands may be regarded
as having the same racial ancestry an anthropologist determines
the cephalic indices of six adult males from each island, getting
a mean of 77.4 and a standard deviation of 3.3 in one island and a
mean of 72.2 and a standard deviation of 2.1 in the other. He
would like to know whether this difference can be reasonably
attributed to chance. Set up appropriate hypotheses and test them
using stated significance levels in order to help him reach a
decision. Assume that the Populations are normally distributed.

Time: 2 Hrs.

1. We are to determine the average buying power of residents of
Billekehalli. The population has been divided into 3 strata: Upper
Class, Middle class and Lower Class. The following information is
available:

--------------------------------------------------------
Class Class Size Std. Deviation Cost per
of income interview
--------------------------------------------------------

Upper 200 2000 30
Middle 1000 1000 50
Lower 5000 60 10
--------------------------------------------------------
i) The budget for this research is Rs. 6,500. Determine the
optimum allocation under the above budgetary constraint

ii) Find the variance of the sample mean.(Ignore the Finite
Population Multiplier.)

It was later realized that there were several mistakes in the above
Table. 40 residents were randomly sampled and the sample mean was
computed to be Rs. 750 and the standard error of this estimate to
be Rs. 100.

iii) Give a 92% Confidence Limit for the population mean.

2. The life of an automobile wheel assembly bearing is normally
distributed with a mean of 50,000 Km run and a standard deviation
of 6000 Km If a transport company has 90 automobiles, how many of
them may be expected to have the bearing failure problem within
56,000 Km. (Note that each automobile has 4 such bearings.)

3. 4 management graduate has been asked to determine the optimal
number of ambulances that a hospital should have. For this
purpose, she wants to determine the arrival pattern of emergency
calls and then make use of a technical called queuing theory.
However, the formulae she knows require that the time between
arrivals be exponentially distributed. On one particular day, she
observes that emergency calls came in at 2.00 A.M, 4:30 A.M. , 6:10
A.M., 11:10 A.M. , 3:20 P.M., 5:10 P,M., 6:40 P.M and 11:50 P.M.
Can she confidently use the formulae that she was planning to use?
Ex plain your answer, showing all relevant calculations and any
assumptions that you made.

4. Two groups of sales trainees were given a common test at the
Close of their training period. One group of trainees (Group I)
had been involved in a new, innovative program while the other
group (Group II) had followed the Standard training program. The
company wonders if the scores for the two groups differ
Significantly. Help the company make a decision by using a
nonparametric test at the 5% level of significance. The relevant
data are shown below:

Group I scores: 31, 28, 42, 36, 29, 51, 34, 25, 44, 33

Group II scores: 27, 45, 30, 53, 41, 39, 48, 43, 26, 37

5. A soft drink manufacturer has a production line to fill 500 ml
bottles with the soft drink. The volume of liquid filled into these
bottles is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 20 ml.
Every hour, the quality control inspector takes a sample of 16
bottles in order to test the hypothesis that the population mean is
500 ml (as against the alternate hypothesis that the sample mean is
greater than 500 ml).

i) Develop the appropriate test procedure. using a significance
level of 5%.
ii) If the population mean is really 505 ml, determine the probability of
rejecting the null hypothesis.
iii) Suppose that the hypothesis to be tested is as in part A. But
the company he wants the probability of rejecting the null
hypothesis when the population mean is really 505 ml to be at
least 0.8. What is the minimum sample size required?
(Hint: replace sample size of 16 in (i) and (ii ) by n and
solve for n).

6. A refrigerator manufacturing company, in order to devise an
effective marketing strategy, wants to determine whether the size
of the refrigerator owned by a family is independent of the family
size. The company conducts a survey of 500 refrigerator owning
families with the following results:

Size of
Refrigerator 1 to 3 4 to 5 6 or more Total

Jumbo 4 36 40 80
Large 35 50 45 130
Standard 150 95 15 260
Small 11 19 0 30

Total 200 200 100 500


Can the company assume that the size of refrigerator owned is
independent of family size?
\\




lNDlAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT, BANGALORE Name:_______
PGP I (1992-94) Term I Quantitative Methods I Narsing Rao

QUIZ I

1. Each job applicant at the Bureau of Buffoons is given a battery of
three tests. Sixty percent of all applicants pass the first test.
Eighty percent of those who pass the first test also pass the second
test, while only thirty percent of those who fail the first test pass
the second. Ninety percent of those who pass both of the first two
tests pass the third; sixty percent of those who pass only one of the
first two tests pass the third; and only ten percent of those who fail
the first two tests pass the third,, If an applicant is 'selected at
random, what is the probability that the applicant:

a) Passed all three tests?

b) Passed none of the tests?

c) Passed the first two and failed the third?

d) Passed two or more of the test?

e) Passed exactly one of the tests?

2. A school boy has five blue marbles and four white marbles in his
left pocket, four blue and five white marbles in his right pocket. He
transfers one marble from his left pocket to his right pocket and then
draws one marble from his right pocket. What is the probability that
it is blue?

QUlZ II

1.(6 points)

Tires are produced by two factories, I and II, but factory I
produces twice as many tires as factory II. The output from both
factories are combined. Factory I is known to produce 2% defectives,
and Factory II produces 1% defectives. A tire is examined and found
to be not defective. Find the prior and the posterior probabilities
that it came from Factory II.

2.(9 points)
An oil detector worth Rs. 1.5 lakhs is lowered under the sea to
detect oil fields, and it becomes detached from the ship. If
the instrument is not found within 24 hours, it will crack under the
pressure of the sea. It is assumed that a diver will find it with a
probability of 0.85, but it costs Rs. 1,000 to hire him. How many
divers should be hired? Explain your answer, showing all calcula-
tions.







FINAL EXAMINATION (PART II)
Time allowed: 2.25 hours
1 A customer decides to use the following strategy to decide whether to
accept or reject a lot: A sample of 10 items is chosen. If the
number defectives in the sample is 1 or less, the lot is accepted.
If it is 4 or more, it is rejected. If it is 2 or 3, another sample
of 5 is chosen. If the number of defectives in both samples put
together is 5 or more, the lot is rejected, else it is accepted. The
customer has two suppliers A and B, who supply 60% and 40% of the
total number of lots respectively. If the defective rates for suppli-
ers A and B are 10% and 15% respectively, what proportion of the accepted lots
are from supplier A?

2. We want to estimate the percentage of vegetarians in a small town.
The population was divided into three strata: Rich, Professional, and
Poor, the sizes of which are 20, 150, and 300 respectively. It was found that
10 Rich, 50 Professionals, and 50 Poor were vegetarians.
Let us define the following random variables:

X
rich
: Percentage of vegetarians among 20 rich
X
prof
: Percentage of vegetarians among 150 professionals
X
poor
: Percentage of vegetarians among 300 poor
X : Percentage of vegetarians among 470 townspeople

Rich
: Mean of X
rich
prof : mean X
prof
poor: mean of X
poor

: Mean of X

Note : You must answer a) and b) in the space provided:
a) Explain what is meant, by "X
prof
is a random variable'.
b)
b) How would you experimentally determine the distribution of X
rich
?

c) Determine an unbiased estimator of in terms of X
rich
, X
prof
,
and X
poor.


d) Estimate the mean of X

e) Test the hypothesis that = 0.3 at a 5%. Significance level.


3. Mr. Ram opened an automobile repair shop in Bangalore last October.
He collected the following data concerning engine repairs for the
first ten months:

Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
No. of
Repairs 68 65 66 63 67 70 70 72 76 69


a) Find the mean, mode, median, and variance of the sample data.

b) Mr. Ram feels that the because weather in Bangalore, there should be no
significant variation in the number of monthly engine repairs. Test this
hypothesis at a significance level of 0.05.

c) Test the above data for randomness at the 0.05 level of significance (assume
that the number of runs, r, follows a normal distribution).

d) What do you conclude from the results of parts b) and c)?


4. A travel agency arranges air tickets for customers travelling to the
USA, Gulf, and Europe. Customers make enquiries by telephone and the
agency possesses only one telephone. It plans to acquire more lines
and assign some phones exclusively for each area of operation, and
others to handle the initial enquiries. It is estimated that the
initial enquiry of a customer takes less than ten minutes and subse-
quent enquiries by the interested customer takes longer. The follow-
ing data was collected:

Time taken Gulf USA Europe
< 10 minutes 60 30 25
> 10 minutes 90 30 20

Let P1 = Proportion of Gulf calls which are less than 10 minutes (to total
number of Gulf calls). P2 and P3 are similarly defined for USA and Europe.
Determine at the 0.05 level of significance whether P1=P2=P3.



5. A total of 189 passengers may be carried on aircraft which fly between
two cities. A survey of several flights by two air-line companies
produced the following number of unfilled seats per f1ight:

Airline X: 12 29, 18, 35, 12, 16, 42, 8, 21, 37

Airline Y : 34, 6, 19, 31, 14, 17, 29, 12, 18, 42, 10, 7, 18.

The number of unfilled seats per flight is not guaranteed to be nor-
mally distributed. Use a 5 percent significance level to determine if
the samples came from the same population.