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Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
EBITDA
Depr expense
EBIT
Int expense
EBT
Taxes
Net Income
2003
503.4
405.2
98.2
37.8
60.4
6.8
53.6
5.5
48.1
19.2
28.9
2004
543.7
432.3
111.4
44.6
66.8
6.2
60.6
5.8
54.8
22
32.8
2005
587.2
496.2
91
45.8
45.2
6
39.2
5.9
33.3
13.3
20
2006
636.1
513.4
122.7
51.5
71.2
5.9
65.3
5.3
60
24
36
2007
680.7
558.2
122.5
49
73.5
6.1
67.4
3.3
64.1
25.6
38.5
Assets
Cash & equivalent
Accts Receivable
Inventory
Total CA
2003
4.3
62.1
57.7
124.1
2004
5.1
70.1
58
133.2
2005
4.8
78.8
61.2
144.8
2006
7.8
87.1
61.9
156.8
2007
5
93.3
67.3
165.6
201.4
12.3
337.8
202.9
12.1
348.2
203.1
11.8
359.7
202.3
12.5
371.6
204.4
10.8
380.8
42.2
91.6
204
337.8
45
82.8
220.4
348.2
51.6
73.8
234.3
359.7
53.4
65.8
252.4
371.6
58.1
54.8
267.9
380.8
Accts Receivable
Inventory
Accts Payable
NWC
2003
62.1
57.7
42.2
77.6
2004
70.1
58
45
83.1
2005
78.8
61.2
51.6
88.4
2006
87.1
61.9
53.4
95.6
2007
93.3
67.3
58.1
102.5
Exhibit 4
Channel
Mass Merchant
Grocery
Club
Drug
Dollar
Other
Total
2003
170
91
136
55
22
31
505
2004
193
92
141
60
24
33
543
2005
220
92
149
66
26
34
587
2006
247
92
159
73
29
37
637
2007
268
94
167
80
32
40
681
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
WACC Calculation
10 year US Treasury
Market Risk Premium
Total Debt 2008
3.75%
5.00%
49.8
Component
Faculty expansion
Manufacturing equip
Purchase equip
Amount
Est Life
10,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
Salvage
20
10
10
none
$5,500
$4,200
Exhibit 6
Market Value Enterprise Value EBITDA/EV EBIT/EV
P/E
Cathleen Sinclair
298.9
1628.5
6.4
10
General Health & Beauty
319.3
382.4
6.2
7.4
Women's Care Company
498.6
553.9
10.5
11.2
Skin Care Enterprises
1204.2
1576.1
10.1
12.6
Average
8.3
10.3
Exhibit 7
Cathleen Sinclair
13.9
13.4
6.5
18.4
13.1
16.50%
10%
23.60%
32.925%
0.1980
0.1110
0.3090
1.267
1.139
1.139
1.139
1.139
1.139
1.139
1.95
1.14
1.35
1.665
1.743
1.069
1.139
1.139
2003
28.9
6.8
3.1
0.5
0.3
32.4
2004
32.8
6.2
8
0.3
2.8
33.5
2005
20
6
8.7
3.2
6.6
20.7
7.3
0.5
7.8
7.7
-0.2
7.5
6.2
-0.2
6
8
14.4
22.4
8.8
16.4
25.2
9
6.1
15.1
2.2
0.8
-0.4
2003
19.507%
7.509%
11.998%
9.555%
5.741%
39.917%
2004
8.006%
20.489%
8.203%
12.286%
10.079%
6.033%
40.146%
2005
8.001%
15.497%
7.800%
7.698%
5.671%
3.406%
39.940%
2003
44.410
51.264
37.493
2004
46.415
48.300
37.474
2005
48.311
44.401
37.437
P/B
NM
1.6
11.4
3.8
5.6
WACC
9.444%
9.375%
9.307%
9.238%
9.169%
9.100%
2006
36
5.9
8.3
0.7
1.8
34.7
2007
38.5
6.1
6.2
5.4
4.7
37.7
5.1
-0.7
4.4
8.2
-1.7
6.5
8
17.9
25.9
11
23
34
4.4
-2.8
2006
8.328%
19.289%
8.096%
11.193%
9.432%
5.659%
40.000%
2007 Average
7.011%
7.836%
17.996%
18.556%
7.198%
7.761%
10.798%
10.795%
9.417%
8.831%
5.656%
5.299%
39.938%
39.988%
3.151%
2006
49.294
43.405
37.444
2007 Average
49.343
47.555
43.404
46.155
37.470
37.464
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
7.76%
Net Income
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
Free Cash Flow
Cummulative
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.77
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.81
2009
2010
$84,960,000.00
$93,880,800.00
($68,770,000.00) ($76,772,500.00)
$16,190,000.00
$17,108,300.00
($6,592,896.00)
($7,285,150.08)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$9,597,104.00
$9,823,149.92
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 4,957,104.00
$5,823,149.92
($1,982,841.60)
($2,329,259.97)
$2,974,262.40
$3,493,889.95
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
9.238%
$ (16,887,126.814)
2.079%
11.389
4.871%
($12,883,140.22)
($1,371,600.21)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.84
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.88
5
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.92
6
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.95
7
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.99
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$103,124,448.00 $112,700,289.60 $114,954,295.39 $117,253,381.30 $119,598,448.93
($85,334,167.00) ($94,398,853.58) ($97,986,314.48) ($101,711,013.65) ($105,578,231.64)
$17,790,281.00
$18,301,436.02
$16,967,980.92
$15,542,367.65
$14,020,217.29
($8,002,457.16)
($8,745,542.47)
($8,920,453.32)
($9,098,862.39)
($9,280,839.64)
$ (1,028,376.00) $ (1,064,369.16) $ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$9,787,823.84
$9,555,893.55
$8,047,527.59
$6,443,505.26
$4,739,377.65
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$5,787,823.84
$5,555,893.55
$4,047,527.59
$2,443,505.26
$739,377.65
($2,315,129.53)
($2,222,357.42)
($1,619,011.04)
($977,402.10)
($295,751.06)
$3,472,694.30
$3,333,536.13
$2,428,516.56
$1,466,103.16
$443,626.59
($1,427,746.58)
($1,483,771.96)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
($384,353.88)
4,000,000.00 $
($393,621.99)
4,000,000.00 $
($403,136.67)
4,000,000.00
8
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$2.03
9
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$2.07
10
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$2.12
2016
2017
2018
$121,990,417.90 $124,430,226.26 $126,918,830.79
($109,593,453.20) ($113,762,375.21) ($118,090,914.96)
$12,396,964.71
$10,667,851.05
$8,827,915.83
($9,466,456.43)
($9,655,785.56)
($9,848,901.27)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$2,930,508.28
$1,012,065.49
($1,020,985.44)
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
($1,069,491.72)
($2,987,934.51)
($5,020,985.44)
$427,796.69
$1,195,173.80
$2,008,394.18
($641,695.03)
($1,792,760.70)
($3,012,591.26)
$
($412,905.25)
4,000,000.00 $
8,245.00
($422,935.27)
$19,183,212.03
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
$
2,945,399.72 $
1,784,304.02 $ 20,178,865.76
$ (14,789,342.70) $ (13,005,038.68) $
7,173,827.08
Accounts Payable
NWC
Recover
Change in NWC
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
3
4
6
165,600.00 $
171,396.00
662,400.00 $ 1,028,376.00
$20.00 $
20.70 $
21.42
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$40,000.00
$41,400.00
$42,849.00
437
473
510
$17,480,000.00 $19,582,200.00 $21,852,990.00
$
0.94 $
0.98 $
1.02
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00 $ 56,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 50,835,200.00 $ 56,935,424.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$12,883,140.22
($12,883,140.22) ($14,254,740.43)
$1,371,600.21
$1,427,746.58
4
5
6
7
8
6
8
8
8
8
$
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85 $
203,564.68
$ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82 $ 1,628,517.46
$
22.17 $
22.95 $
23.75 $
24.59 $
25.45
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$44,348.72
$45,900.92
$47,507.45
$49,170.21
$50,891.17
546
546
546
546
546
$24,214,398.39 $25,061,902.33 $25,939,068.92 $26,846,936.33 $27,786,579.10
$
1.06 $
1.10 $
1.14 $
1.19 $
1.24
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00
$ 63,442,329.60 $ 65,980,022.78 $ 68,619,223.70 $ 71,363,992.64 $ 74,218,552.35
$ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00 $ 4,821,105.55
$ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67 $ 2,767,216.20
$ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67 $ 7,588,321.75
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
9
10
8
8
$
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
26.34 $
27.26
2,000.00
2,000.00
$52,672.36
$54,515.89
546
546
$28,759,109.37 $29,765,678.20
$
1.29 $
1.34
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00
$ 77,187,294.44 $ 80,274,786.22
$ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$16,436,776.67 $16,765,512.20
$ 14,585,181.31 $ 15,140,132.25
($11,838,745.95) ($12,289,197.89)
$19,183,212.03 $19,616,446.56
($18,760,276.76) ($19,183,212.03) ($19,616,446.56)
$422,935.27 ($19,183,212.03) ($19,616,446.56)
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
7.76%
Net Income
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
Free Cash Flow
Cummulative
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.77
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.81
2009
2010
$84,960,000.00
$93,880,800.00
($68,770,000.00) ($75,306,100.00)
$16,190,000.00
$18,574,700.00
($6,592,896.00)
($7,285,150.08)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$9,597,104.00
$11,289,549.92
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 4,957,104.00
$7,289,549.92
($1,982,841.60)
($2,915,819.97)
$2,974,262.40
$4,373,729.95
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
9.238%
$ 6,626,430.986
11.577%
6.402
10.595%
($12,883,140.22)
($1,336,198.58)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.84
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.88
5
80,000,000.00
80.00%
64,000,000.00
$1.92
6
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.95
7
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.99
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$103,124,448.00 $112,700,289.60 $122,617,915.08 $132,887,165.47 $135,544,908.78
($82,096,807.00) ($89,065,500.38) ($96,261,462.05) ($103,740,396.37) ($105,656,032.58)
$21,027,641.00
$23,634,789.22
$26,356,453.03
$29,146,769.10
$29,888,876.21
($8,002,457.16)
($8,745,542.47)
($9,515,150.21) ($10,312,044.04) ($10,518,284.92)
$ (1,028,376.00) $ (1,064,369.16) $ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$13,025,183.84
$14,889,246.75
$16,841,302.82
$18,834,725.06
$19,370,591.28
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$9,025,183.84
$10,889,246.75
$12,841,302.82
$14,834,725.06
$15,370,591.28
($3,610,073.53)
($4,355,698.70)
($5,136,521.13)
($5,933,890.03)
($6,148,236.51)
$5,415,110.30
$6,533,548.05
$7,704,781.69
$8,900,835.04
$9,222,354.77
($1,384,992.31)
($1,433,170.79)
($1,483,805.86)
($1,537,085.71)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00 $
($397,325.17)
4,000,000.00
8
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.03
9
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.07
10
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.12
2016
2017
2018
$138,255,806.96 $141,020,923.10 $143,841,341.56
($107,620,848.00) ($109,636,363.78) ($111,704,151.64)
$30,634,958.96
$31,384,559.32
$32,137,189.92
($10,728,650.62) ($10,943,223.63) ($11,162,088.11)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$19,906,308.34
$20,441,335.68
$20,975,101.81
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$15,906,308.34
$16,441,335.68
$16,975,101.81
($6,362,523.33)
($6,576,534.27)
($6,790,040.73)
$9,543,785.00
$9,864,801.41
$10,185,061.09
($405,534.01)
4,000,000.00 $
8,245.00
($413,920.00)
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
Accounts Payable
NWC
Recover
Change in NWC
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
3
4
6
165,600.00 $
171,396.00
662,400.00 $ 1,028,376.00
$20.00 $
20.70 $
21.42
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$40,000.00
$41,400.00
$42,849.00
437
473
510
$17,480,000.00 $19,582,200.00 $21,852,990.00
$
0.94 $
0.95 $
0.96
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00 $ 56,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 49,368,800.00 $ 53,698,064.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$12,883,140.22
($12,883,140.22) ($14,219,338.81)
$1,336,198.58
$1,384,992.31
4
5
6
7
8
6
8
8
8
8
$
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85 $
203,564.68
$ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82 $ 1,628,517.46
$
22.17 $
22.95 $
23.75 $
24.59 $
25.45
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$44,348.72
$45,900.92
$47,507.45
$49,170.21
$50,891.17
546
582
619
619
619
$24,214,398.39 $26,714,335.45 $29,407,112.93 $30,436,361.88 $31,501,634.55
$
0.97 $
0.98 $
0.99 $
1.00 $
1.01
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 64,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 58,108,976.40 $ 62,602,737.24 $ 67,180,562.40 $ 67,852,368.03 $ 68,530,891.71
$ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00 $ 4,821,105.55
$ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67 $ 2,767,216.20
$ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67 $ 7,588,321.75
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
9
10
8
8
$
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
26.34 $
27.26
2,000.00
2,000.00
$52,672.36
$54,515.89
619
619
$32,604,191.76 $33,745,338.47
$
1.02 $
1.03
$ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 69,216,200.62 $ 69,908,362.63
$ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$18,628,346.89 $19,000,913.83
$ 14,056,196.00 $ 14,321,301.76
($11,409,370.24) ($11,624,555.75)
$21,275,172.66 $21,697,659.84
($20,861,252.65) ($21,275,172.66) ($21,697,659.84)
$413,920.00 ($21,275,172.66) ($21,697,659.84)
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
7.76%
Taxes
Net Income
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
Free Cash Flow
Cummulative
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
fixed cost
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.77
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.81
2009
2010
$84,960,000.00
$93,880,800.00
$ (45,120,000.00) $ (49,368,800.00)
$39,840,000.00
$44,512,000.00
(23,650,000.00)
(25,937,300.00)
($6,592,896.00)
($7,285,150.08)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$8,957,104.00
$10,627,149.92
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 4,317,104.00
$6,627,149.92
($1,726,841.60)
($2,650,859.97)
$2,590,262.40
$3,976,289.95
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
9.238%
$ 237,885,925.796
33.693%
6.646
30.085%
($12,312,185.23)
($1,280,978.91)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.84
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.88
2011
$103,124,448.00
$ (53,698,064.00)
$49,426,384.00
(28,398,743.00)
($8,002,457.16)
$ (1,028,376.00)
$11,996,807.84
$ (4,000,000.00)
$7,996,807.84
($3,198,723.13)
$4,798,084.70
2012
$112,700,289.60
$ (58,108,976.40)
$54,591,313.20
(30,956,523.98)
($8,745,542.47)
$ (1,064,369.16)
$13,824,877.59
$ (4,000,000.00)
$9,824,877.59
($3,929,951.03)
$5,894,926.55
5
80,000,000.00
80.00%
64,000,000.00
$1.92
6
80,000,000.00
90.00%
72,000,000.00
$1.95
7
80,000,000.00
90.00%
72,000,000.00
$1.99
2013
2014
2015
$122,617,915.08 $140,704,057.56 $143,518,138.71
$ (62,602,737.24) $ (71,132,360.19) $ (71,843,683.79)
$60,015,177.84
$69,571,697.37
$71,674,454.92
(33,658,724.81)
(38,270,102.25)
(39,573,792.22)
($9,515,150.21) ($10,918,634.87) ($11,137,007.56)
$ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$15,372,473.38
$18,862,721.78
$19,390,208.32
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$11,372,473.38
$14,862,721.78
$15,390,208.32
($4,548,989.35)
($5,945,088.71)
($6,156,083.33)
$6,823,484.03
$8,917,633.07
$9,234,124.99
($1,325,568.50)
($1,371,421.20)
($1,418,569.71)
($2,595,034.07)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00 $
($388,902.48)
4,000,000.00
8
80,000,000.00
90.00%
72,000,000.00
$2.03
9
80,000,000.00
90.00%
72,000,000.00
$2.07
10
80,000,000.00
90.00%
72,000,000.00
$2.12
2016
2017
2018
$146,388,501.49 $149,316,271.51 $152,302,596.95
$ (72,562,120.63) $ (73,287,741.84) $ (74,020,619.26)
$73,826,380.85
$76,028,529.68
$78,281,977.69
(39,600,000.00)
(39,600,000.00)
(39,600,000.00)
($11,359,747.72) ($11,586,942.67) ($11,818,681.52)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$21,238,115.68
$23,156,071.44
$25,118,787.55
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$17,238,115.68
$19,156,071.44
$21,118,787.55
($6,895,246.27)
($7,662,428.58)
($8,447,515.02)
$10,342,869.41
$11,493,642.86
$12,671,272.53
($396,508.80)
4,000,000.00 $
($404,265.53)
$21,493,434.42
$
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
$ 537,836,668.29
$ 13,946,360.61 $ 15,089,377.33 $576,001,375.25
$ 18,488,506.22 $ 33,577,883.55 $ 609,579,258.80
Inventory
Accounts Payable
NWC
Recover
Change in NWC
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
4
165,600.00
662,400.00
$20.00 $
20.70
2,000.00
2,000.00
$40,000.00
$41,400.00
437
473
$17,480,000.00 $19,582,200.00
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
$
0.94 $
0.95
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 49,368,800.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
$ 3,920,000.00 $ 4,037,600.00
$ 2,250,000.00 $ 2,317,500.00
$ 6,170,000.00 $ 6,355,100.00
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
$
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
$11,222,904.50 $12,401,309.47
$ 5,784,719.06 $ 6,329,446.78
($4,695,438.33) ($5,137,592.11)
$12,312,185.23 $13,593,164.14
$12,312,185.23
($12,312,185.23)
$1,280,978.91
$ 23,650,000.00 $ 25,937,300.00
0.492708333
0.498794231
23,650,000.00
25,937,300.00
3
4
5
6
7
6
6
8
8
8
$
171,396.00 $
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85
$ 1,028,376.00 $ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82
$
21.42 $
22.17 $
22.95 $
23.75 $
24.59
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$42,849.00
$44,348.72
$45,900.92
$47,507.45
$49,170.21
510
546
582
655
655
$21,852,990.00 $24,214,398.39 $26,714,335.45 $31,117,381.21 $32,206,489.55
$
0.96 $
0.97 $
0.98 $
0.99 $
1.00
$ 56,000,000.00 $ 60,000,000.00 $ 64,000,000.00 $ 72,000,000.00 $ 72,000,000.00
$ 53,698,064.00 $ 58,108,976.40 $ 62,602,737.24 $ 71,132,360.19 $ 71,843,683.79
$ 4,158,728.00 $ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00
$ 2,387,025.00 $ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67
$ 6,545,753.00 $ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67
$
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
$
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
$
500,000.00
$ 2,000,000.00
$ 1,500,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
8
9
10
8
8
8
$
203,564.68 $
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,628,517.46 $ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
25.45 $
26.34 $
27.26
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$50,891.17
$52,672.36
$54,515.89
655
655
655
$33,333,716.68 $34,500,396.77 $35,707,910.66
$
1.01 $
1.02 $
1.03
$ 72,000,000.00 $ 72,000,000.00 $ 72,000,000.00
$ 72,562,120.63 $ 73,287,741.84 $ 74,020,619.26
$ 4,821,105.55 $ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,767,216.20 $ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,588,321.75 $ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
$
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
$
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
Best Case
Base
Worst Case
Expected Value
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation
NPV
IRR
Probability
$237,885,925.796
$6,626,430.986
-$16,887,126.814
33.693%
11.577%
2.079%
25%
50%
25%
$58,562,915.239
14.732%
103,976,256.610
1.775
11.614%
0.788
3.75%
Sharpe Ratio
0.946
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
7.76%
Selling Price
1.77
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1.42
1.50
1.59
1.68
1.77
1.86
1.95
2.04
20%
selling price
direct material
2.12
-20%
-15%
$ (71,796,450.76) $ (52,190,730.32)
$ (38,648,185.91) $ (27,329,531.68)
$100,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$40,000,000.00
$20,000,000.00
$$(20,000,000.00)
$(40,000,000.00)
$(60,000,000.00)
$(80,000,000.00)
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.77
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.81
2009
2010
$84,960,000.00
$93,880,800.00
($68,770,000.00) ($75,306,100.00)
$16,190,000.00
$18,574,700.00
($6,592,896.00)
($7,285,150.08)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$9,597,104.00
$11,289,549.92
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 4,957,104.00
$7,289,549.92
($1,982,841.60)
($2,915,819.97)
$2,974,262.40
$4,373,729.95
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
9.238%
$ 6,626,430.986
11.577%
6.402
10.595%
($12,883,140.22)
($1,336,198.58)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
NPV
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
6,626,430.99
(71,796,450.76)
(52,190,730.32)
(32,585,009.89)
(12,979,289.45)
6,626,430.99
26,232,151.42
45,837,871.86
65,443,592.29
$
$
85,049,312.73
-10%
-5%
(32,585,009.89) $ (12,979,289.45) $
(16,010,877.46) $ (4,692,223.24) $
0%
6,626,430.99
6,626,430.99
100,000,000.00
$80,000,000.00
$60,000,000.00
$40,000,000.00
selling price
$20,000,000.00
direct material
$-
(20,000,000.00)
(40,000,000.00)
(60,000,000.00)
(80,000,000.00)
5%
$ 26,232,151.42
$ 17,945,085.21
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.84
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.88
5
80,000,000.00
80.00%
64,000,000.00
$1.92
6
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.95
7
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.99
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$103,124,448.00 $112,700,289.60 $122,617,915.08 $132,887,165.47 $135,544,908.78
($82,096,807.00) ($89,065,500.38) ($96,261,462.05) ($103,740,396.37) ($105,656,032.58)
$21,027,641.00
$23,634,789.22
$26,356,453.03
$29,146,769.10
$29,888,876.21
($8,002,457.16)
($8,745,542.47)
($9,515,150.21) ($10,312,044.04) ($10,518,284.92)
$ (1,028,376.00) $ (1,064,369.16) $ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$13,025,183.84
$14,889,246.75
$16,841,302.82
$18,834,725.06
$19,370,591.28
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$9,025,183.84
$10,889,246.75
$12,841,302.82
$14,834,725.06
$15,370,591.28
($3,610,073.53)
($4,355,698.70)
($5,136,521.13)
($5,933,890.03)
($6,148,236.51)
$5,415,110.30
$6,533,548.05
$7,704,781.69
$8,900,835.04
$9,222,354.77
($1,384,992.31)
($1,433,170.79)
($1,483,805.86)
($1,537,085.71)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00 $
($397,325.17)
4,000,000.00
0.94
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
NPV
$
1.128
1.081
1.034
0.987
0.94
0.893
0.846
0.799
6,626,430.99
$ (38,648,185.91)
$ (27,329,531.68)
$ (16,010,877.46)
$ (4,692,223.24)
$ 6,626,430.99
$ 17,945,085.21
$ 29,263,739.43
$ 40,582,393.65
-20%
0.752
$ 51,901,047.88
10%
15%
20%
$ 45,837,871.86 $ 65,443,592.29 $ 85,049,312.73
$ 29,263,739.43 $ 40,582,393.65 $ 51,901,047.88
8
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.03
9
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.07
10
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.12
2016
2017
2018
$138,255,806.96 $141,020,923.10 $143,841,341.56
($107,620,848.00) ($109,636,363.78) ($111,704,151.64)
$30,634,958.96
$31,384,559.32
$32,137,189.92
($10,728,650.62) ($10,943,223.63) ($11,162,088.11)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$19,906,308.34
$20,441,335.68
$20,975,101.81
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$15,906,308.34
$16,441,335.68
$16,975,101.81
($6,362,523.33)
($6,576,534.27)
($6,790,040.73)
$9,543,785.00
$9,864,801.41
$10,185,061.09
($405,534.01)
4,000,000.00 $
8,245.00
($413,920.00)
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
3
4
6
165,600.00 $
171,396.00
662,400.00 $ 1,028,376.00
$20.00 $
20.70 $
21.42
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$40,000.00
$41,400.00
$42,849.00
437
473
510
$17,480,000.00 $19,582,200.00 $21,852,990.00
$
0.94 $
0.95 $
0.96
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00 $ 56,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 49,368,800.00 $ 53,698,064.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$12,883,140.22
($12,883,140.22) ($14,219,338.81)
$1,336,198.58
$1,384,992.31
4
5
6
7
8
6
8
8
8
8
$
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85 $
203,564.68
$ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82 $ 1,628,517.46
$
22.17 $
22.95 $
23.75 $
24.59 $
25.45
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$44,348.72
$45,900.92
$47,507.45
$49,170.21
$50,891.17
546
582
619
619
619
$24,214,398.39 $26,714,335.45 $29,407,112.93 $30,436,361.88 $31,501,634.55
$
0.97 $
0.98 $
0.99 $
1.00 $
1.01
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 64,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 58,108,976.40 $ 62,602,737.24 $ 67,180,562.40 $ 67,852,368.03 $ 68,530,891.71
$ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00 $ 4,821,105.55
$ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67 $ 2,767,216.20
$ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67 $ 7,588,321.75
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
9
10
8
8
$
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
26.34 $
27.26
2,000.00
2,000.00
$52,672.36
$54,515.89
619
619
$32,604,191.76 $33,745,338.47
$
1.02 $
1.03
$ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 69,216,200.62 $ 69,908,362.63
$ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$18,628,346.89 $19,000,913.83
$ 14,056,196.00 $ 14,321,301.76
($11,409,370.24) ($11,624,555.75)
$21,275,172.66 $21,697,659.84
($20,861,252.65) ($21,275,172.66) ($21,697,659.84)
$413,920.00 ($21,275,172.66) ($21,697,659.84)
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.74
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$20.00
160,000
7.76%
Net Income
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
Free Cash Flow
Cummulative
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.74
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.77
2009
2010
$83,524,241.55
$92,294,286.91
($68,770,000.00) ($75,306,100.00)
$14,754,241.55
$16,988,186.91
($6,481,481.14)
($7,162,036.66)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$8,272,760.40
$9,826,150.25
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 3,632,760.40
$5,826,150.25
($1,453,104.16)
($2,330,460.10)
$2,179,656.24
$3,495,690.15
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
($12,693,481.79)
($1,316,284.45)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
9.238%
(0.000)
9.238%
6.946
9.238%
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.81
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.85
5
80,000,000.00
80.00%
64,000,000.00
$1.88
6
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.92
7
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.96
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$101,381,724.39 $110,795,741.66 $120,545,766.92 $130,641,474.90 $133,254,304.40
($82,096,807.00) ($89,065,500.38) ($96,261,462.05) ($103,740,396.37) ($105,656,032.58)
$19,284,917.39
$21,730,241.28
$24,284,304.87
$26,901,078.53
$27,598,271.82
($7,867,221.81)
($8,597,749.55)
($9,354,351.51) ($10,137,778.45) ($10,340,534.02)
$ (1,028,376.00) $ (1,064,369.16) $ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$11,417,695.58
$13,132,491.72
$14,929,953.35
$16,763,300.08
$17,257,737.80
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$7,417,695.58
$9,132,491.72
$10,929,953.35
$12,763,300.08
$13,257,737.80
($2,967,078.23)
($3,652,996.69)
($4,371,981.34)
($5,105,320.03)
($5,303,095.12)
$4,450,617.35
$5,479,495.03
$6,557,972.01
$7,657,980.05
$7,954,642.68
($1,364,357.47)
($1,411,794.39)
($1,461,666.49)
($1,514,161.40)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00 $
($391,392.22)
4,000,000.00
8
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.00
9
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.04
10
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.08
2016
2017
2018
$135,919,390.49 $138,637,778.30 $141,410,533.86
($107,620,848.00) ($109,636,363.78) ($111,704,151.64)
$28,298,542.48
$29,001,414.52
$29,706,382.22
($10,547,344.70) ($10,758,291.60) ($10,973,457.43)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$17,751,197.78
$18,243,122.92
$18,732,924.79
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$13,751,197.78
$14,243,122.92
$14,732,924.79
($5,500,479.11)
($5,697,249.17)
($5,893,169.92)
$8,250,718.67
$8,545,873.75
$8,839,754.88
($399,482.40)
4,000,000.00 $
8,245.00
($407,747.36)
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
Accounts Payable
NWC
Recover
Change in NWC
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
3
4
6
165,600.00 $
171,396.00
662,400.00 $ 1,028,376.00
$20.00 $
20.70 $
21.42
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$40,000.00
$41,400.00
$42,849.00
437
473
510
$17,480,000.00 $19,582,200.00 $21,852,990.00
$
0.94 $
0.95 $
0.96
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00 $ 56,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 49,368,800.00 $ 53,698,064.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$12,693,481.79
($12,693,481.79) ($14,009,766.24)
$1,316,284.45
$1,364,357.47
4
5
6
7
8
6
8
8
8
8
$
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85 $
203,564.68
$ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82 $ 1,628,517.46
$
22.17 $
22.95 $
23.75 $
24.59 $
25.45
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$44,348.72
$45,900.92
$47,507.45
$49,170.21
$50,891.17
546
582
619
619
619
$24,214,398.39 $26,714,335.45 $29,407,112.93 $30,436,361.88 $31,501,634.55
$
0.97 $
0.98 $
0.99 $
1.00 $
1.01
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 64,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 58,108,976.40 $ 62,602,737.24 $ 67,180,562.40 $ 67,852,368.03 $ 68,530,891.71
$ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00 $ 4,821,105.55
$ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67 $ 2,767,216.20
$ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67 $ 7,588,321.75
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
9
10
8
8
$
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
26.34 $
27.26
2,000.00
2,000.00
$52,672.36
$54,515.89
619
619
$32,604,191.76 $33,745,338.47
$
1.02 $
1.03
$ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 69,216,200.62 $ 69,908,362.63
$ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$18,313,542.20 $18,679,813.05
$ 14,056,196.00 $ 14,321,301.76
($11,409,370.24) ($11,624,555.75)
$20,960,367.97 $21,376,559.06
($20,552,620.60) ($20,960,367.97) ($21,376,559.06)
$407,747.36 ($20,960,367.97) ($21,376,559.06)
Exhibit 5
Year 1
Selling price/unit
Raw material/unit
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenance expense
Hourly labor cost
Manager salary
sga of sales
$1.77
$0.94
$3,920,000
$2,250,000
$21.36
160,000
7.76%
Net Income
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
Free Cash Flow
Cummulative
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
Year
Max Cap
Cap Percentage
Units
Price
Operatting Results
Revenue
COGS
Gross
SG&A Expense
Managers Expense (Fixed)
EBITDA
Depr Expense
EBIT
Taxes
Net Income
2008
1
80,000,000.00
60%
48,000,000.00
$1.77
2
80,000,000.00
65.00%
52,000,000.00
$1.81
2009
2010
$84,960,000.00
$93,880,800.00
($69,959,412.00) ($76,638,554.45)
$15,000,588.00
$17,242,245.55
($6,592,896.00)
($7,285,150.08)
$
(640,000.00) $
(662,400.00)
$8,407,692.00
$9,957,095.47
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$ 3,767,692.00
$5,957,095.47
($1,507,076.80)
($2,382,838.19)
$2,260,615.20
$3,574,257.28
Cap Ex
NWC
Depreciation
$ (45,000,000.00)
WACC
NPV
IRR
Payback
MIRR
($12,911,854.84)
($1,339,651.90)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00
9.238%
(0.000)
9.238%
6.940
9.238%
3
80,000,000.00
70.00%
56,000,000.00
$1.84
4
80,000,000.00
75.00%
60,000,000.00
$1.88
5
80,000,000.00
80.00%
64,000,000.00
$1.92
6
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.95
7
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$1.99
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$103,124,448.00 $112,700,289.60 $122,617,915.08 $132,887,165.47 $135,544,908.78
($83,583,775.46) ($90,713,148.90) ($98,079,216.70) ($105,741,378.81) ($107,727,049.41)
$19,540,672.54
$21,987,140.70
$24,538,698.38
$27,145,786.66
$27,817,859.38
($8,002,457.16)
($8,745,542.47)
($9,515,150.21) ($10,312,044.04) ($10,518,284.92)
$ (1,028,376.00) $ (1,064,369.16) $ (1,468,829.44) $ (1,520,238.47) $ (1,573,446.82)
$11,538,215.38
$13,241,598.23
$15,023,548.17
$16,833,742.62
$17,299,574.45
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$7,538,215.38
$9,241,598.23
$11,023,548.17
$12,833,742.62
$13,299,574.45
($3,015,286.15)
($3,696,639.29)
($4,409,419.27)
($5,133,497.05)
($5,319,829.78)
$4,522,929.23
$5,544,958.94
$6,614,128.90
$7,700,245.57
$7,979,744.67
($1,388,722.56)
($1,437,049.90)
($1,487,912.54)
($1,541,509.17)
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00 $
($399,015.93)
4,000,000.00
8
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.03
9
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.07
10
80,000,000.00
85.00%
68,000,000.00
$2.12
2016
2017
2018
$138,255,806.96 $141,020,923.10 $143,841,341.56
($109,764,350.42) ($111,854,888.79) ($114,000,325.02)
$28,491,456.54
$29,166,034.31
$29,841,016.54
($10,728,650.62) ($10,943,223.63) ($11,162,088.11)
$ (1,628,517.46) $ (1,685,515.57) $ (1,744,508.61)
$17,762,805.92
$18,222,810.68
$18,678,928.43
$ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00) $ (4,000,000.00)
$13,762,805.92
$14,222,810.68
$14,678,928.43
($5,505,122.37)
($5,689,124.27)
($5,871,571.37)
$8,257,683.55
$8,533,686.41
$8,807,357.06
($407,283.95)
4,000,000.00 $
8,245.00
($415,731.19)
4,000,000.00 $
4,000,000.00
Accounts Payable
NWC
Recover
Change in NWC
Year
Manager
Salary
Total Cost
HOURLY
Cost/Hour
Hours
Cost/Worker
# of Workers
Total Cost
Material
Raw Material
Units
Total
0
$
$
1
4
160,000.00 $
640,000.00 $
2
3
4
6
165,600.00 $
171,396.00
662,400.00 $ 1,028,376.00
$21.36 $
22.11 $
22.88
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$42,721.77
$44,217.03
$45,764.62
437
473
510
$18,669,412.00 $20,914,654.45 $23,339,958.46
$
0.94 $
0.95 $
0.96
$ 48,000,000.00 $ 52,000,000.00 $ 56,000,000.00
$ 45,120,000.00 $ 49,368,800.00 $ 53,698,064.00
Manufacturing Overhead
Maintenence Expense
Total
Depreciation
Facilty Expansion
Manufacturing Equipment
Packing Equipment
Total
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$12,911,854.84
($12,911,854.84) ($14,251,506.74)
$1,339,651.90
$1,388,722.56
4
5
6
7
8
6
8
8
8
8
$
177,394.86 $
183,603.68 $
190,029.81 $
196,680.85 $
203,564.68
$ 1,064,369.16 $ 1,468,829.44 $ 1,520,238.47 $ 1,573,446.82 $ 1,628,517.46
$
23.68 $
24.51 $
25.37 $
26.26 $
27.18
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
2,000.00
$47,366.39
$49,024.21
$50,740.06
$52,515.96
$54,354.02
546
582
619
619
619
$25,862,046.91 $28,532,090.10 $31,408,095.37 $32,507,378.71 $33,645,136.97
$
0.97 $
0.98 $
0.99 $
1.00 $
1.01
$ 60,000,000.00 $ 64,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 58,108,976.40 $ 62,602,737.24 $ 67,180,562.40 $ 67,852,368.03 $ 68,530,891.71
$ 4,283,489.84 $ 4,411,994.54 $ 4,544,354.37 $ 4,680,685.00 $ 4,821,105.55
$ 2,458,635.75 $ 2,532,394.82 $ 2,608,366.67 $ 2,686,617.67 $ 2,767,216.20
$ 6,742,125.59 $ 6,944,389.36 $ 7,152,721.04 $ 7,367,302.67 $ 7,588,321.75
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
500,000.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
47.555
46.155
37.464
9
10
8
8
$
210,689.45 $
218,063.58
$ 1,685,515.57 $ 1,744,508.61
$
28.13 $
29.11
2,000.00
2,000.00
$56,256.41
$58,225.38
619
619
$34,822,716.76 $36,041,511.85
$
1.02 $
1.03
$ 68,000,000.00 $ 68,000,000.00
$ 69,216,200.62 $ 69,908,362.63
$ 4,965,738.72 $ 5,114,710.88
$ 2,850,232.68 $ 2,935,739.66
$ 7,815,971.40 $ 8,050,450.54
500,000.00 $
500,000.00 $
$ 2,000,000.00 $ 2,000,000.00 $
$ 1,500,000.00 $ 1,500,000.00 $
$ 4,000,000.00 $ 4,000,000.00 $
47.555
46.155
37.464
4,675.00
3,570.00
8,245.00
47.555
46.155
37.464
$18,628,346.89 $19,000,913.83
$ 14,340,627.39 $ 14,615,688.24
($11,640,242.30) ($11,863,508.34)
$21,328,731.98 $21,753,093.74
($20,913,000.79) ($21,328,731.98) ($21,753,093.74)
$415,731.19 ($21,328,731.98) ($21,753,093.74)