This Weeks Highlights:

Asian Ethylene - Unchanged amid thin discussion

Asian HDPE - Mixed in thin trading
Asian LDPE - Stable to lower on weaker China domestic prices
Asian LLDPE - Stable amid thin discussion

Platts International Prices 1
Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1
Polymerupdate CI F I ndia Prices 2
Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 3
Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 4
Heard in PVC Market 4
Currency Rates 4
Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 5
Polymerupdate - PE Market Supply Scenario 6
Platts Price Analysis Of PE Chain Processing Margins 7
Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/ MT) 8
Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 8
Point of Contact 10
Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 10
Platts - About us & Copyright 10

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 1

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

Product
Aug 27
(WK 35)
Sep 03
(WK 36)
Price Change
on Week
India Crude basket: (USD/ b) 101.47 99.53 - 1.94
Naphtha: (MOP West India) 883.48 861.23 - 22.25
Ethylene :
CFR North East Asia 1529-1531 1529-1531 0
CFR South East Asia 1494-1496 1494-1496 0
Polyethylene :
HDPE Inj CFR South Asia 1634-1636 1629-1631 - 05
HDPE Inj CFR Far East Asia 1499-1501 1499-1501 0
HDPE Inj CFR South East Asia 1579-1581 1584-1586 + 05
HDPE Blow CFR South Asia 1639-1641 1629-1631 - 10
HDPE Blow CFR Far East Asia 1539-1541 1544-1546 + 05
HDPE Blow CFR South East Asia 1589-1591 1584-1586 - 05
HDPE Film CFR South Asia 1654-1656 1649-1651 - 05
HDPE Film CFR Far East Asia 1589-1591 1579-1581 - 10
HDPE Film CFR South East Asia 1614-1616 1619-1621 + 05

LLDPE GP CFR South Asia 1659-1661 1659-1661 0
LLDPE GP CFR Far East Asia 1549-1551 1549-1551 0
LLDPE GP CFR South East Asia 1609-1611 1609-1611 0
LDPE CFR Far East Asia 1599-1601 1579-1581 - 20
LDPE CFR South East Asia 1609-1611 1609-1611 0
China Domestic (YUAN/ MT EX-WORK) :
HDPE Film 12080-12120 12080-12120 0
LLDPE 11480-11520 11380-11420 - 100
LDPE 12380-12420 12280-12320 - 100

POLYMERUPDATE INDIAN DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE RIL (Ex-Hazira)

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)
Product
Aug 27 (WK 35) Sep 03 (WK 36) Price Change on Week
I NR/ KG USD/ MT I NR/ KG USD/ MT I NR/ KG
HDPE Grade
Raffia 114.34 1717

114.34 1717 0
Film 113.46 1703

113.46 1703 0
Injection 115.83 1740

115.83 1740 0
Blow Moulding 113.29 1701

113.29 1701 0
Pipe 115.93 1741

115.93 1741 0
LLDPE Grade
Film 117.26 1762

117.26 1762 0
Rotomoulding 115.95 1741

115.95 1741 0
Injection 118.76 1785

118.76 1785 0
Extrusion Coating 119.24 1792

119.24 1792 0
LDPE Grade
General 134.24 2022

130.87 1971 - 3.37
Heavyduty 137.46 2072

136.34 2054 - 1.12
Milk Pouch 140.72 2122

139.60 2105 - 1.12
Injection 137.51 2072

136.38 2055 - 1.13
Lamination 141.26 2130

139.01 2095 - 2.25
*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/ kg basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/ MT price is calculated at
current US/ INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers,
processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES
Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days
credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East
Asia: Indonesia (J akarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok,
Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.
India Crude I mport Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%)
MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price



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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 2

POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)

HDPE Grade
CIF I NDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)
South Korea Singapore Thailand Saudi Arabia
WK 35 WK 36
Price Change
on Week
WK 35 WK 36
Price Change
on Week
WK 35 WK 36
Price Change
on Week
WK 35 WK 36
Price Change
on Week
Aug 27 Sep 03 Aug 27 Sep 03 Aug 27 Sep 03 Aug 27 Sep 03
Raffia 1700 1700 0
-- -- -- -- 1700 1700 0
-- -- -- --
Film 1710 1710 0
1670 1670 0
1720 1720 0
1650 1650 0
Injection 1700 1700 0
1670 1670 0
1700 1700 0
1670 1670 0
Blow Moulding 1660 1660 0
1660 1660 0
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Pipe 1680 1680 0
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
HMHD 1710 1710 0 1700 1700 0
1710 1710 0
-- -- -- --

LDPE Grade South Korea Singapore Thailand Qatar
General 1670 1670 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
Heavyduty 1670 1670 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
Milk Pouch 1670 1670 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
1680 1680 0
Injection 1690 1690 0
1700 1700 0
1700 1700 0
-- -- -- --
Lamination -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1810 1810 0

LLDPE Grade South Korea Singapore Thailand Saudi Arabia
Film 1690 1690 0
1710 1710 0
1710 1710 0
1690 1690 0
Rotomoulding 1700 1700 0
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1700 1700 0
Injection 1710 1710 0
1730 1730 0
1730 1730 0
1710 1710 0
Metallocene -- -- -- -- 1780 1790 0
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

- All prices are in USD/ MT CI F I ndia (Nhava Sheva)
- For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.
- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.
- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 3

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PORDUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)

HDPE w.e.f 1-Sep-2014
Grade Producer (Ex Works) Grade No. INR/MT USD/MT
BLOW MOULDING
RIL (BC/NC) 54GB012 113340 1701
RIL (Hazira) B56003 113290 1701
HALDIA (HC) B6401 115500 1735
GAIL (M/B/T) B52A003A 109010 1635
GAIL (M/B/T) B63A003A 109010 1635

INJ ECTION MOULDING
( MFI - 18 )
RIL (Hazira) 50MA180 112890 1695
HALDIA (HC) M5018L 114900 1725
GAIL (M/B/T) I50A180A 109700 1646

INJ ECTION MOULDING
( MFI - 7 ) UV
RIL (Hazira) L60075 115830 1740
HALDIA (HC) M6007LU 117550 1766
GAIL (M/B/T) I60U080A 111470 1673

HDPE FILM RIL (Hazira) F56003 113460 1703

HDPE PIPE
RIL (BC/NC) 46GP009 115930 1741
HALDIA (HC) P-5300 122200 1837
GAIL (M/B/T) P54A001A 114530 1720

HMHDPE FILM
RIL (Hazira) 52GF004 113950 1711
HALDIA (Works) F5400 117450 1765
GAIL (M/B/T) F55HM003A 110570 1659

RAFFIA
RIL (Hazira) 53EA010 113660 1706
RIL (Hazira) E52009 114340 1717
HALDIA (HC) R5801 117350 1763
GAIL (M/B/T) W50A009A 108560 1628
LDPE Ex-Mumbai (Panvel Depot) w.e.f 1-Sep-2014
* Prices are in I NR/ MT (inclusive of excise duty)
Grade Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT
LDPE EC RIL 1070LA17 139011.79 2096

LDPE IM RIL 16MA400 136382.57 2055

LDPE GP RIL 24FS040 130865.69 1970

LDPE MP RIL 1005FY20 139596.06 2104

LDPE HEAVY DUTY
RIL 22FA002 136337.62 2054
RIL 1020FA20 131169.06 1975

LLDPE w.e.f 1-Sep-2014
Grade Producer (Ex Works) Grade No. INR/MT USD/MT
LLDPE EXTRUSION
COATING
RIL (Hazira) E24065 119240 1792
HALDIA (HC) 72307E 121450 1826
GAIL (M/B/T) E36A060 114370 1717

LLDPE INJ ECTION
MOULDING
RIL (Hazira) M26500 118760 1785
HALDIA (HC) 71501-S -- --

LLDPE FILM
RIL (BC/NC) 20FS010 116460 1749
RIL (BC/NC) 20FS020 116470 1749
RIL (Hazira) F18010 117260 1762
RIL (Hazira) F19010 117260 1762
HALDIA (HC) 71601S 119400 1794
GAIL (M/B/T) F20S009A 113830 1709

LLDPE ROTOMOULDING
RIL (BC/NC) 36RA045 115980 1742
RIL (Hazira) R35042 115950 1741
HALDIA (HC) 73005T 118250 1777
HALDIA (HC) 73204T 118250 1777
GAIL (M/B/T) R35A042A 111420 1672

*Domestic I ndian producer prices are quoted in I NR/ MT basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/ MT price is at current US/ I NR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)
- Ex Works: BC/ NC = Ex Works Baroda Complex / Nagothane Complex | Ex Works: HC = Halidia Complex | Ex Works: M/ B/ T = Mumbai / Bhiwandi / Thane
- Product Key: EC = Extrusion Coating, IM = Injection Moulding, GP = General Purpose, MP = Milk Pouch, MFI = Melt Flow I ndex, UV = Ultra Violet, HM = Heavy Molecule
- USD Price calculation: INR/ MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/ MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 4

POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/ kg levels.

Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkatta Banglore Indore Chennai Patna Ahmedabad Rajasthan Kanpur Hyderabad Punjab Kerala
HMHDPE 132 - 133 134 - 135 145 - 146 128 - 129 131.5 - 132 128 - 128.5 128 131 - 132 133 - 133.5 127 - 128 122 - 123 139 - 140 132 - 133
HDPE Raffia 128 - 129 131 - 132 - 125.5 - 126 125 - 126 128 - 128.5 - 126 - 127 - - 117.5 - 118 - -
HDPE Injection 134 - 135 133 - 134 146 - 147 117 - 118 - 133 - 133.5 128 128 - 129 131 - 132 121 - 122 117.5 - 118 138 - 139 -
HDPE Blow Moulding 131 - 132 131 - 132 143 - 144 127 - 128 130 - 131 127 - 127.5 129 126 - 127 131 - 132 127 - 128 122 - 122.5 136 - 137 131 - 132
LLDPE Film 130 - 131 128 - 129 133 - 134 129 - 131 134 - 135 129 - 129.5 130 132 - 133 135 - 135.5 127 - 128 128 - 128.5 136 - 137 132 - 133
LDPE FILM 129 - 130 130 - 131 133 - 134 129 - 131 132 - 133 127 - 127.5 148 131 - 132 134 - 134.5 133 - 134 133 - 133.5 134 - 135 142 - 143


Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :
Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates
Indian Rupees (INR) 60.60 J apan Yen (J PY) 105.12
Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 102.09 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 11,763.26
China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.14 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 3.17
Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.47 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.25
Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 130.19 South Korea Won (KRW) 1018.29
Thailand Baht (THB) 32.12 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.75
Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 29.94 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67



Heard in PE MARKET
Platts :
03 Sep LLDPE: A Thai producer offers $1630/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, over 100 mt
03 Sep LDPE: Traded at $1610/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, ME origin
03 Sep HDPE-yarn: A Thai producer offers $1615/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, over 100 mt
03 Sep HDPE-film: A Thai producer offers $1600/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, over 100 mt
03 Sep LDPE: Traded at $1610/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, ME origin
03 Sep LLDPE: Traded at $1610/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, ME origin
Polymerupdate :
2-9-2014: Taiwan producer offers HDPE Film at $ 1680/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)
2-9-2014: Taiwan producer offers HDPE Raffia at $ 1690/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)
2-9-2014: Taiwan producer offers LLDPE Film at $ 1690/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)
2-9-2014: Taiwan producer offers LLDPE Roto moulding at $ 1700/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)
1-9-2014: Saudi Arabia producer offers LLDPE Film at $ 1680-1690/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)
28-8-2014: Malaysia producer offers LLDPE Film at $ 1710-1720/mt in Sri Lanka
28-8-2014: Malaysia producer offers HDPE Film at $ 1680-1690/mt in Sri Lanka

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 5

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

ETHYLENE: Asian ethylene was assessed unchanged day on day at $1,530/mt CFR Northeast Asia
and $1,495/mt CFR Southeast Asia Wednesday, amid thin trade. In China, a 3,000-3,500 mt
domestic cargo was heard sold at $1,520/mt to a styrene monomer maker on Monday. There was
virtually no discussions for imports as cargoes were limited and domestic supplies were priced much
lower. European traders were heard eyeing opportunities to move European-origin cargoes to Asia
amid falling prices in the West of Suez. However, the arbitrage window has yet to be opened. In
Southeast Asia, there was no discussions due to a lack of spot availability. In plant news, J apan's
Mitsui Chemicals has shut its naphtha-fed steam cracker at Chiba Wednesday due to a "technical
issue," a company source said Wednesday without giving further details. It is still uncertain when the
cracker will be restarted. "Now we are checking so that is not sure," he added. The cracker can
produce 600,000 mt/year of ethylene and 331,000 mt/year of propylene. A trader said the cracker
was scheduled to be shut in October for two weeks of maintenance.
LLDPE: Linear low density polyethylene prices were stable this week amid thin trade. The CFR Far
East Asia marker was stable at $1,550/mt Wednesday, while the CFR Southeast Asia marker was also
flat at $1,610/mt and the CFR South Asia maker was unchanged week on week at $1,660/mt
Wednesday. The domestic China LLDPE price was assessed at Yuan 11,400/mt, or around
$1,488.81/mt on an import-parity basis, down Yuan 100/mt from the previous week on softening
demand. Meanwhile, Singapore-origin material was heard offered at $1,580/mt CFR China with
purchase of metallocene. Thai material was heard offered at $1,630/mt CFR China. Material
originating in Southeast Asia is exempt from import tax under the ASEAN FTA. I n Southeast Asia,
offers were heard at $1,620-1,630/mt CFR Vietnam, and deals were heard concluded at $1,610-
1,620/mt CFR Vietnam. Markets noted that they are seeing more LLDPE divert from China to the
regional market. "Some traders were also looking to re-export LLDPE from China to Vietnam since
the price gap is $60/mt which is quite considerable," said a Vietnamese trader. In South Asia, offers
were heard at $1,670-1,680/mt CFR India. Buying interest for imported material remained weak after
more than 50,000 mt of LLDPE arrived in India in J uly and thus there was a supply glut in the
domestic market.


HDPE: Asian high density polyethylene prices were mixed this week in thin trade. The CFR Far East Asia
marker was down $10/mt from last week at $1,580/mt Wednesday, CFR Southeast Asia rose $5/mt to
$1,620/mt, and CFR South Asia fell $5/mt to $1,650/mt. Middle Eastern material was heard offered at $1,580-
1,600/mt CFR China. A Thai producer lowered its offer by $10/mt from last week to $1,600/mt CFR China.
Market sentiment remained sluggish, and end-users said they were not getting orders for end product from
Europe and the US. "By right, it should be the season for end product such as packing film, shopping bags
production. But this year order is particularly poor and thus converters are hesitant to restock resin," said a
Chinese trader. In Southeast Asia, offers were heard at $1,620-1,630/mt CFR Vietnam with bids heard at
$1,600/mt CFR China. Deals were heard concluded at $1,610-1,620/mt CFR Vietnam. Participants said activity
was thin as most watched the China market. "Nobody is doing anything now as prices in China seem
unstable," said a regional trader. I n South Asia, Thai and Malaysia cargo was heard offering at $1,700/mt CFR
India, while Middle Eastern material was heard offering at $1,650/mt CFR India with deals heard concluded at
$1,650/mt for Middle Eastern origin.
LDPE: Asian low density polyethylene prices were stable to weaker, reflecting lower domestic prices in China.
The CFR Far East Asia marker was assessed at $1,580/mt Wednesday, down $20/mt week on week, while the
CFR Southeast Asia marker remained flat at $1,610/mt. The domestic China LDPE price was assessed at Yuan
12,300/mt, or around $1,606/mt on an import-parity basis, down Yuan 100/mt from the previous week due to
softening demand. Several producers were heard lowering offers in a bid to attract buyers. A Thai producer
lowered offers to $1,610/mt CFR China from $1,620/mt last week. Meanwhile, a Middle Eastern producer
offered at $1,600-1,610/mt CFR China. "It is suppose to be restocking time for agricultural film makers but it
is quite bizarre that there hasn't been inquiries from converters," said a J apanese trader. In Southeast Asia,
deals were heard concluded at $1,600-1,610/mt CFR Vietnam. Market participants noted that market activity
was thin, with majority standing in the sidelines with an eye on China's market. In South Asia, deals were
heard concluded at $1,650/mt CFR India and demand was heard to be stable.
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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 6

POLYMERUPDATE - PE MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

Naphtha cracker shut by Mitsui for
maintenance turnaround
Mitsui Chemicals has shut a naphtha
cracker owing to technical issues. The
cracker shut on September 3, 2014. A
restart schedule for the plant could not be
ascertained. Located at Chiba in J apan,
the cracker has an ethylene capacity of
617,000 mt/year.

LLDPE plant shut by PetroRabigh
PetroRabigh has shut a linear low density
polyethylene (LLDPE) plant for
maintenance turnaround. The plant was
shut last week. It is likely to remain off-
stream for around one month. Located at
Rabigh in Saudi Arabia, the plant has a
production capacity of 350,000 mt/year.

Olefins project to be completed by
PIC
Petroleum Industries Corp (PIC) is likely to
complete its Olefins 3 project in Kuwait.
The project is expected to be completed
by end-2017 or early 2018. It was initially
scheduled for completion in 2015. Located
at Shuaiba in Kuwait, the project
comprises a steam cracker with ethylene
capacity of 1.4 million mt/year, a propylene plant with capacity of 450,000 mt/year, a polyethylene plant with capacity of 1 million mt/year and polypropylene plant with capacity of 550,000 mt/year.

LDPE plant shut by PTTGC
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) has shut a low density polyethylene (LDPE) plant for maintenance turnaround. The plant was shut early last week. I t is likely to remain off-stream for around one month. Located in Map
Ta Phut, Thailand, the plant has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year.



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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 7

PLATTS Price Analysis of PE Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Ethylene Polyethylene to Naphtha

Typical North East Asian $/ mt margin for producing ethylene
from naphtha using a conversion cost of $350/ mt.
CFR FE Asia LLDPE price as a ratio to naphtha

Ethylene to Polyethylene

Intra-Asian LDPE Premiums

Typical $/ mt margin for producing LLDPE in Far East Asia

from ethylene using a conversion cost of $150/ mt
Premium or discount of weekly LDPE Southeast Asian price over weekly Far East Asian LDPE








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Week 36 September 03, 2014

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(W),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:info@polymerupdate.com|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 8

PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

From: Middle East Middle East
To: 25 100 MT > 100 MT
East China 20 25 10 15
South China 15 25 10 15
India 45 50 30 40
Southeast Asia 30 35 25 30
NW Europe 55 65 50 60
Turkey 50 70 40 60
US Gulf 130 140 120 130
Latin America 165 175 160 165
NOTES:
Polymers refer to Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polystyrene, ABS, and PVC.
1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from J ebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), J ubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait),
Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized
between these ports.
2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, J iangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports.
3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports.
4) I ndia deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports.
5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (J akarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay),
Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports.
6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be
normalized to Antwerp.
7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into I stanbul and Mersin ports.
8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into mainports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.




CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

OVERVIEW: Monsoon enters crucial phase

In J une, the first month of the monsoon season, rainfall was close to 43% below the long period average. This
delayed the sowing of crops. However, the rainfall deficit reduced to 18% by August 10. The I MDexpects overall
rainfall deficiency of around 10%, which implies that rains will pick up further over the remaining part of the season.
CRISILs Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter shows that Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan are the worst-hit. These
states have a large share of coarse cereals (jowar, bajra), pulses (tur) and oilseeds (groundnut, soybean) in overall
production. The delay in sowing of these cropswill pull down the agricultural GDP growth to 1% in FY15. This is
unlikely to derail the Reserve Bank of Indias consumer price index (CPI) inflation target of 8% by J anuary 2015 as the
most-affected crops have low weight (4.3%) in the CPI. Moreover, government measures, such a lower rise in the
minimum support price this year and ample buffer stocks, and a favourable base-effect will cap foodgrain inflation.
However, the risk is from elevated fruit and vegetable prices, which are hard to predict and can play spoilsport.

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

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II P growth decelerates in J une

IIP growth slowed to 3.4% in J une compared to an average 4.2% growth in the previous two months, largely due to weaker growth in manufacturing
output - mainly consumer goods. The output of investment-related (capital) goods, however, continued to grow at a steady pace. For Q1FY15, the
industrial sector staged a revival, growing at 3.9% after falling by an average 0.7% between October 2013 and March 2014. The growth in Q1 was led
by manufacturing and electricity which contributed 63% and 29%, respectively, to IIP growth, while mining output turned positive. Given the Q1 IIP
growth, and assuming that the construction sector grew at the same rate as in FY14, industrial GDP is likely to have grown around 3.3% in Q1FY15,
(compared to 0.2% fall in Q4FY14 and 0.4% fall in Q1FY14), signalling an improvement in industrial performance.



CPI inflation edges higher in J uly

CPI inflation rose to 7.96% in J uly from 7.5% in J une, driven by a rise in food inflation to 9.4% y-o-y from 8% in the previous month. Inflation rose
sharply in vegetable, fruits, pulses, and condiments and spices. The support of a strong base effect to headline inflation last month was not present
in J uly, providing no cushion to rising food prices due to weak rainfall in the first half of the month. CPI Core inflation (excluding food and fuel &
light) fell to 7.3% y-o-y in J uly from 7.5% in the previous month. In the core, inflation came down in transport equipment, recreation and medical
care. The fall was partly led by last years strong base effect. In fact, on an m-o-m seasonally-adjusted basis, core inflation rose by 0.6% as
compared to 0.4% recorded last month.


Rupee weakens marginally in J uly

The rupee depreciated by 0.5% to Rs 60.1/$ on a monthly average basis in J uly despite a rise in FII inflows during the month. On a month-end
basis, however, the currency was fairly stable, ending at Rs 60.2/$ as compared to Rs 60.1/$ at the end of J une. In J uly, the rupee depreciated
marginally despite higher FII inflows. We believe that one reason for this could be higher dollar demand by importers. While data for J uly imports
is still not available, growth was seen to pick-up sharply in J une, reflecting green shoots of recovery in domestic demand. This is likely to have
continued in J uly. Despite depreciating, the rupee was slightly less volatile during the month, trading between 59.7-60.3/$.



About CRISIL Research
CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and anal ysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible
provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our anal ysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary
sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual
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sector experts, company anal ysts, and information management specialists.

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Week 36 September 03, 2014

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