OMMI Power Plant: Operation Maintenance and Materials Issues, 2008, Volume 5,

Issue 3.

ISSN 1740-
1740-5181

Dr Marinko Aleksic and Dr Petar Stanojevic - Fuzzy logic prioritizing maintenance

work in operative planning
J Fernandes, E Dias Lopes - Evaluation of high temperature steel alloys applied to
heat recovery steam generators from combined cycle gas turbines
A Shibli - Remaining life assessment issues in high Cr martensitic steels and
development of new innovative tools for micro-damage detection and integrity
assessment
F Masuyama, J Shingledecker - Recent Developments in ASME codes concerning
high Cr martensitic steels
K Maile, A Klenk - Life assessment of high temperature components on the basis of
VGB guidelines
D Robertson, A Shibli - Welding and Weld Repair involving 9Cr Martensitic Steels:
Issues arising from on-site experience and more recent research findings
C Petry, A Jeyanathan, P Billard, E Gariboldi - Experimental characterisation and
modelling of P92 welds
S Birks - Very heavy section 9Cr martensitic steel castings of USC applications:
Developments for 700 C applications

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 OMMI Power Plant: Operation Maintenance and Materials Issues, 2008, Volume 5,
Issue 3.
FUZZY LOGIC PRIORITIZING MAINTENANCE WORK
IN OPERATIVE PLANNING
Dr Marinko Aleksić1, and Dr Petar Stanojević2,
1
Naval Repair Facility, Montenegro, Tivat
2
Petroleum Industry of Serbia, Serbia, Novi Sad

Dr Marinko Aleksić is Head of the Technology Department of Electronic

Sector in the Naval Repair Facility Tivat (Montenegro Ministry of Defense)
and Visiting Professor at Kotor Maritime Faculty. He was previously First
engineer for Overhaul Technology in NRF Tivat Montenegro, Head of the
Naval overhaul working place in Libya and Head of Maintenance Sector in
the Zenica milk industry in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dr Marinko Aleksić
was an expert team member in 10 projects which include Type "Kotor"
Frigate reconstructions, Navigational & Torpedo System ORKA 2000,
Command-control & communication system HORIZON, Marine GIS.
He has 18 years experience working as an engineer and maintenance
manager. He has a BSc in industrial electronics and a PhD in maintenance
engineering. He is also an Expert for RCM / RBI and has particular interest for Maintenance
management, Risk management, FMEA and RCFA. He has authored and co-authored 2 textbooks, and
about 30 articles.

Dr. Petar Stanojevic, is a special adviser to the President of the NIS a.d.
(Petroleum Industry of Serbia) management board. He was also the Managing
Director of Corporate Development Department of NIS a.d (Petroleum Industry
of Serbia)., the Deputy Secretary of the state in Ministry of Defense, Professor
at the Military Academy, School of National Defense and Professor at Belgrade
University. Dr Stanojevic was project & program manager of 15 projects
including the Opportunity Confirmation Program with Shell GSI, Restructuring
and Reorganization of NIS a.d., Implementation of risk based approaches in
NIS, and Integ-risk (EU FP7 project) etc.

He has a PhD and MSc in Industrial Engineering and five years experience in
managing the development of a national oil and gas company, ten years of academic and research
experience and five years of experience working as an engineer and maintenance manager. He has
authored and co-authored 3 textbooks, two monographs and about 100 articles. Dr Stanojevic has made
three research study visits abroad and has been an invited speaker at conferences and symposiums.

Abstract
Starting from a statement that a basic problem in the operative planning process is a
unique and automaticated methodology for determination of priorities in maintenance
work, a hierarchical model for determination of maintenance work priorities was made
and fuzzyficated. An original method for modular production of complex fuzzy systems
using Matlab and Symulink was developed. A basic simulation model was made to deal
with a wide range of problems with a possibility to analyse sensitivity of final solution
to different input variables. Application of this model is simple and it has a possibility
to shorten the basic model due to the increase in its use in operative planning process.

Key words: maintenance, operative planning, priorities, fuzzy logic, modeling, simulation.

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1 PROBLEM
As most facilities or plants are still fighting against the maintenance of reactive
style, the probability of breakdowns and other unplanned events which interrupt daily
flow of work is high. Also, in most organizations the workload is excessive and
priorities are constantly monitored and changed. The drawbacks due to an unclear
definition of priorities [1, 2] are as follows:
• Waste of maintenance man-hours on tasks of a relatively low importance
• Crucial tasks lost in maintenance backlog
• Unutilized maintenance capacities
• Dissatisfied shop flour management, personnel and customers
• Lack of faith in the effectiveness of maintenance system and its capacities
This is why the methodlogy for priority determination makes a very important segment
of operative planning in maintenance. There are different methods for determining
maintenace work priorities and some of them will be mentioned. The most frequent
situation in an organization is illustrated by a method of “emotional” and “real”
priorities [3].

• The text says that a typical “emotional” priority is based on feelings instead of
on objective determination of priority importance.
• When determining priority of their own maintenance requirements, people only
have in mind their own scope of activities.
• Also, everyone in an organization takes advantage of the priority system and
always define their requirements to have priority higher than necessary as,
otherwise, it may happen that their work is never done.
• A “real” priority in maintenance work is defined by viewing consequences of
undone work and equipment condition determined by inspection.
• “Real” priorities lead towards the idea that most of the work is planned and then
efficiently carried out according to a schedule, which as a consequence has
cheaper maintenance work and more effective dealing.

One of the methodologies for determining priorities, which is further elaborated and
adjusted for practical use, is a relative priority gradation technique or a “REDRIST”
technique. “REDRIST” index is an output of two criteria. The first criterion is an index
of a relative importance of a facility and the second criterion is an index of a relative
importance of a type of maintenance work. The lower value of “REDRIST” index [4,5]
is, the higher priority of an operation procedure is.

NASA's RCM guide book recommends a priority determination method based on

the consequences of Equipment Failure [6], which is in accordance with a basic
principle for the selection of a maintenance strategy based on RCM methodology.
Priorities are determined by an impact on mission, safety of life and availability of
redundancy.
Like “REDRIST” technique, [1] also suggests a priority determination technique
based on the following:

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• Equipment cruciality
• Effects of a task or work accomplished
• Limitations
Equipment cruciality and effects of a task are first determined and there are nine levels
of importance. A combination of equipment cruciality and effects of work can be cross-
referenced into a matrix to provide a relative weight of each task in comparison with all
other types of tasks. The time frames within which these prioritized tasks are allowed to
appear are marked with colors. Restrictions on the flow of work in the reality add the
third dimension to the process of prioritising and thay are labor shortage, availability of
facilities, spare parts etc.

There are simpler methods like a method of dynamic coefficient [7], and more
complicated methods like a method for simulated dynamic operative planning with
changeable arrangement criteria [8].
Stated methods do not have a unique approach and emphasize different criteria
that influence maintenance priorities. It is obvious that determination of priorities is
better if all influential criteria in an organization are taken into account. However, this
brings us to a complex problem which is harder to resolve in practise. This is why it is
resorted to its hierarchical structuring or a multiphase approach which slows down the
methodology. Such complex or multicriteria problems can be resolved using a
multicriteria methodologies like, for example, an AHP method [9]. However, in this
case, their fast and practical use is questionable as existing softwares are not adjusted
for such a use. Hence, there is also a problem of a need for instant and practical use of
the priority determination system. Because of this the problem is simplified and only
one or two influential criteria are taken into consideration.

2 SELECTED METHOD
Starting from an assumption that more crucial criteria need to be taken into
consideration and at the same time to provide a practical and fast solution to a problem,
there is a suggestion to imitate the manner in which a human expert would solve a
problem. Experts do not use mathematical relations but on the basis of their own
experience and knowledge they can establish interdependence between certain criteria
and give an optimal classification according to the priority in a group of more
maintenance requirements. Such a way of priority determining can be presented
verbally using linguistic IF-THEN rules. It appears that an expert ranks every criterion
but with inaccurate and imprecise characteristics. So, if, for instance, Existent time delay
is chosen to be a criterion, it can be described as short, mean or long. It cannot be said
where clear boundaries between and transitions from SHORT to MEAN and from MEAN
to LONG are. Exactly because of this a solution to a problem has been suggested using
fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning. The use of fuzzy logic may turn expert
knowledge expressed inaccurately and verbally [10,11] into a unique and easily
comprehensible methodology for the determination of priorities in operative planning.
In fuzzy-logic systems the knowledge is presented with IF-THEN rules which are a
suitable verbal form of human knowledge. Fuzzy logic efficiently solves the problem of
relative gradation of importance of particular criteria. Fuzzy system can be easily made.
It allows an introduction of more criteria for analysis and of those which could not have
been analized so far, which increases the quality of decision-making. After the system has

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been adjusted, both rough and precise criteria quantification are allowed. The use is simple
because a user does not have to calculate or think about how to reach a result.

3 AN OUTLINE OF THE MODEL

A model for setting up maintenance priorities is made for solving a wide range
of problems. Because of this, more criteria had to be taken into consideration which
contributed to the development of a complex model. In order to present the expert-like
way of thinking and to solve problems, the system is created to have a hierarchical and
modular structure. Expert-like way of setting up priorities is turned into an algorithm
and included in the model. A clear relation and interdependence between criteria is
established, which represents a basis for output values in the model. The structure of the
model is adjusted for the use of fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning. The main
following criteria are taken into consideration:
1. Asset item importance,
2. Mission (task) importance,
3. Maintenance action importance,
4. Existent time delay in the maintenance system
5. Logistics and Administrative delay time.

The first three criteria are defined more specifically in a way that Asset item importance
is being defined by taking into account the following: Costs of breakdown,
Consequences of breakdown on major system and Availability of redundancies.
Mission (task) importance criterion is defined by taking into account the following:
Exploitation coefficient, Mission (task) type and Organization subsystem importance
for the wider system. Maintenance action importance criterion is defined by taking into
consideration the following: Acceptable time delay, Time to repair and Comparative
maintenance task importance.

The basic outline of the model of the system consists of five modules hierarchically
organized on three levels, Figure 1, in such a way that output criteria on one level are
input criteria on the next, higher level. Output value in the model is a priority measure
and the name proposed for this value is Maintenance work priority index.

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Figure 1. An outline of the basic model

Once the problem is solved on the operative planning level, taking into account a
large number of criteria efficiency of use is called into question. This is why it is
emphasised that a model designed on the suggested criteria is a basic model for a great
number of situations. It provides an opportunity to eliminate redundant criteria for specific
systems achieving the simplicity of its practical use [9]. This requirement could also be
met because of fuzzy logic and its possibilities. For instance, if the first three criteria were
directly defined, the model would be reduced from 11 to 5 criteria.

In practice, Maintenance work priority index would be valued for every

requirement and their sorting would put requirements in order according to a priority.
On Figure 1. every criterion is put in a separate square and their mutual influence is
presented with arrows. Three criteria on the second level occupy the central place in the
model: Asset item importance, Mission (task) importance and Maintenance action
importance.

Each of these criteria is defined with three criteria from lower, third level.
General importance criterion is on the first level as a result of a subliminal influence of
the criteria from the second level. Together with Existent time delay in the maintenance
system and Logistics and Administrative delay time criteria, they determine the output
value for Maintenance work priority index model.

The first model sets up Asset item importance criterion, which is an output value
in the module and depends on 1, 2 and 3 criteria from the third level. The criterion
marked with number 1, Costs of breakdown, shows that a techical device (short TD) is
all the more important as Costs of Breakdown increase. The influence of this criterion is
directly proportionate, thus higher costs contribute to bigger Asset item importance.
The criterion marked with number 2 is named Consequences of breakdown on the major
system. It can be said that as the demand for a technical device for the major system

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operation increases, its importance is bigger. Criterion marked with number 3,
Availability of redundancies, shows the possibilities of a replacement of a broken-down
technical device, permanently or until it is repaired, with another device, which would
reduce maintenance requirements emergency.
Thus, this criterion has an inversely proportionate influence on the output value,
Asset item importance, in the first module.

The second module determines Mission (task) importance criterion. It is an

output value in the module which depends on criteria 4, 5 and 6 on the third level. The
criterion marked with number 4, Operation coefficient, takes into account the extent to
which the device is used or should be used. The criterion marked with number 5, Mission
(task) type, takes into consideration the mission or task the technical device is used for. At
a given time some tasks or missions have different priorities which determines a higher
or lower value of the Mission (task) type. The criterion marked with number 6,
Organisation subsystem importance for the system, takes into consideration how much
an organisation subsystem is important for the operation of the system or to what extent
the failure of a technical device will reduce production or overall effects of the major
system. As for the influence of the specified three criteria from the third level on the
value of Mission (task) importance criterion, it can be said that they have a directly
proportionate influence.

As in the first two modules, Maintenance action importance (MA) also depends on
the criteria 7, 8 and 9 from the third level and together they make the third module. The
criterion marked with number 7 is specified with the name Acceptable time delay. There is
usually a period of time during which the fulfilment of requirements can be delayed
without incuring additional expenses or causing reduction of the quality of service and this
period of time is defined as Acceptable time delay. It can be said that the higher the value
of Acceptable time delay criterion is the lower Maintenance action importance. The
criterion marked with number 8, Time to repair, is time needed for the performance of a
required maintenance action. Shorter maintenance actions should have higher priority.
Thus, Time to repair has an inversly proportional influence on the value of Maintenance
action importance criterion. The criterion marked with number 9, Comparative
maintenance task importance, takes into account the consequences of a possible delay of
maintenance work completion in cases like a danger of an accident, resulting damages and
interruption in production. Its influence on the value of Maintenance action importance
criterion is directly proportional.

It can be said that the criteria 10 and 11 present system restrictions. The criterion
marked with number 10 is named Logistics and Administrative delay time.
Determination of the value of this criterion is based on logistics and administrative
maintenance waiting time and it represents a deviation of a real system from an ideal
maintenance system, which would provide all indispensable resources in any place at
any time. It can be said that this criterion has an inversely proportional influence on
Maintenance work priority index value.

The last criterion marked with number 11 is named Existent time delay in
maintenance system. Experience has shown that in a maintenance workshop a
thechnical device for some reason often has to be put aside for a period of time before it
is maintained. If there are always more prioritised reqirements, it may happen that the
technical device is never maintained. If Existent time delay is long, the technical device
should be awarded higher priority and in that way take its turn for maintenance. Hence,

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the value of Existent time delay in the maintenance system has a directly proportional
influence on the value of Maintenance work priority index.
This is one of the problems that have not had an acceptable solution so far.

4 MODEL FUZZIFICATION
Defining certain criteria and establishing their interdependence is not the end of
the modeling process because there is a need to translate expert knowledge into an
algorithm and introduce it into the model using IF-THEN rules. As the described outline
of the model for the interdependence system is adjusted to fuzzyfication, it is modeled
as a complex fuzzy system consisting of five fuzzy modules hierarchically organised on
different levels. Every module is one fuzzy system consisting of three input linguistic
variables and one output linguistic variable, as showed on Figure 2. The modular
principle is used for easier system analysis and, by this, easier verbal description of its
operation i.e. for drawing up IF-THEN rules. The linguistic variable Comparative
maintenance task importance, has triangle forms of memebership functions of input
linguistic values with the following parametres: SMALL (0,0,1), RELATIVE (0,0.5,1),
BIG (0.5,1,1). Other linguistic variables also have triangle input linguistic values with
the following parametres: Acceptable time delay - SHORT (0,0,1), MEAN (0,0.5,1),
LONG (0,1,1). Time to repair - SHORT (0,0,1), MEAN (0,0.5,1), LONG (0,1,1).
Comparative maintenance task importance - SMALL (0,0,0.5), RELATIVE (0,0.5,1),
BIG ( 0.5,1,1).

Figure 2. A fuzzy-module

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Modelling of every input linguistic variable is done using three linguistic values. This
sets up an input base of rules for one module counting 27 rules all told. Researches have
shown that this is a number of rules which may include experts’ knowledge and which
are not at the same time loaded with data experts cannot control. In case no modular
principle has been used, an input base of 311=177147 rules would have to be used. It is
clear that no expert could express his knowledge in this way. Thus, the introduction of
the knowledge of the system was commenced by modelling hierahical model with the
total of five bases of rules with 27 rules each, which is 135 rules all told. After
optimisation of the number of rules, for which a special method was devised, the system
now has 69 IF-THEN rules all together [9]. For the defuzzification method was chosen
a Centre of Gravity method (COG) since it is common and practical for the
developement of the fuzzy system and it insures required continuity and graduality of an
outcome [12].
It can be said that the model imitates an expert or a decision maker and a user
has a clear insight into the expert knowledge through the IF-THEN form of rules. Using
these rules, the expert qualitatively describes the system which is later adjusted for
finding more precise solutions. Also, every rule clearly indicates how to reach the goal,
that is, increase maintenance efficiency. An example of the following rule states that
requirements are fulfiled:
IF AVAILABILITY OF REDUNDANCES IS GREAT AND COSTS OF
BREAKDOWN LOW AND CONSEQUENCES OF BREAKDOWN ON THE MAJOR
SYSTEM MINOR THEN ASSET ITEM IMPORTANCE IS SMALL.

5 A TYPE OF SIMULATION MODEL

A full-scale interdependence model, outlined as a complex fuzzy system, cannot
be designed in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox for Matlab [13] since this software package is not
designed for modular development of complex systems. For this reason the problem is
solved by simulation in Matlab standard module for simulation – Simulink, as it links
blocks in a simple manner and also supports the fuzzy systems modeling. Matlab is an
adequate package since it can generate an original code in C language. This provides a
basis for integration into already made programs whose purpose is to automise the
maintenance planning process. Figure 3 shows a block of schemes of a full-scale
simulation model.

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Figure 3. A block of schemes of a simulation model

A graphic presentation of the model using blocks was used as the most convenient and
fastest way to edit a model and achieve desired results. Sensitivity testing is a very
complex task, thus, a very complex simulation model was produced because of which
groups of blocks are pooled. The scheme presents it as one block, and it contributes to
model’s clearness. The picture shows that the simulation model consists of two major
blocks: the fuzzy system and sensitivity analysis subsystem. It is obvious that input
values are entered into blocks with the names of every value. Rectangles display output
value reading. The simulation model has all the facilities needed for designing and
verification of a model and a user can set aside only a fuzzy system block illustrated on
Figure 4.

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Figure 4. The fuzzy system

For a user (practicioner) it represents a system which has eleven input variables and one
outcome, which represents a preference index for maintenance prioritizing. The user
does not need to know how the system operates, but there is a possibility to observe in
detail how either a simulation model or a fuzzy system module operates. For analysis is
provided the observation of results in between as every fuzzy module has a display for
result reading.

In order for this simulation model to operate, certain problems related to the
following needed to be solved:
1. Merging of fuzzy modules in a unique system
2. Specificity the interchangeable variables base of rules
3. Reduction of interval in every module output [14]
4. Restriction of input values in the simulation model from upper and lower side,
depending on the trust interval of every input variable.

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5. Sensitivity analysis by variation of one of the entries and its graphic
presentation.

To show a graphic presentation as clear as possible and to perform a simulation as

simply as possible initiation and determination of graphic presentation is automatic
which is left out if sensitivity analysis is not required.

The subsystem for fuzzy model sensitivity analysis provides a variation of

certain input values from their minimal to their maximal value in the universe of
discourse. Sensitivity analysis is done after an ordinal number of an input variable is
entered in a sub-block called Varying input. The result of the variation is given in a
graphic form on Figure 5. which represents a change of priority index depending on a
varied variable? Constant value of other variables is entered in headings which, in such
a case, represent analysis parameters. Sensitivity analysis should be planned and
performed together with the use of a graphic presentation of a group of possible
solutions for every module.

Figure 5. Variation of the variable

After verification and validation of the model an independent program is made since
Matlab generates C-code. The program may be linked with Excel where input and
output results are charted, sorted by the order of priority for any number of maintenance
requirements.

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Table 1. Comparative maintenance task importance criterion

6. An example of use
For practical use in [9,4] are given references for how to determine the input
criteria value. Using these references the user should be able to rate the value of every
input criteria. An example is given in chart 1. with references for general numerical
values of Comparative maintenance task importance criterion. It is easy just to click on
maintenance task term and to have all the other data automaticaly.

This model has been used for a longer period of time in Electronic Division in
Naval Repair Facility Tivat for operative planning requirements. A complete procedure
of 50 maintenance requirements or so a trained user (planer) may finish in 45 minutes
which justifies the use of this model. The program is combined with the existing
software for network planning and project management especially because this software
has solved the problem of distribution and balancing of resources.

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The dissadvantage of this approach is that it has to be adjusted to concrete
problems. In that case a simpler model is better. Also, there is a problem of connecting
with different CMMS. However, this does not diminish model's qualities.

7. CONCLUSION
One of the basic problems in operative planning process is a unique and
automatic methodology for maintenance work prioritizing. Determination of
maintenance system priorities is modeled by the use of fuzzy logic with a purpose to
make improvements in the planning process i.e. dominantely in business system
efficiency and maintenance systems. Model for determination of maintenance work
priorities is built by taking into consideration the following: more criteria, requirements
of comparative gradation of certain influential criteria importance; presentation of
inaccurate knowledge requirements i.e. requirements of translation of verbally
expressed expert knowledge into a clear and visible algorithm. Application of fuzzy
logic may turn expert knowledge expressed inaccurately in a verbal form into a unique
and easily comprehensible priority determination methodology when making operative
plans. Fuzzy logic effectively solves the problem of comparative gradation of
importance of certain criteria and more criteria have been introduced for consideration
by now even those that could not have been considered so far, which improves the
quality of decision-making. The complex system modeling process applying fuzzy logic
suggests an original way for modular development of fuzzy system using Matlab and
Simulink. A simulation model was suggested with a possibility of sensitivity analysis of
a final solution to certain input variable variation. The model was made to represent a
basic model for a wide range of problems but maximally simple to use. After the system
has been adjusted, it is allowed both rough and very precise quantification of criteria
and output results are also very precise so it is virtually impossible for two problems to
obtain the same priority. A relatively simple shortening of the basic model was provided
for specific and practical use which has increased its use in operative planning process if
one of important requirements is the immediacy of problem solving. When maintenance
priorities are set up distribution and balancing between the obtained and required
capacities is done using network planning or project management software.

8. REFERENCES

[1] Mather D.: "Work Order Priorities"

http://www.plant-maintenance.com/ maintenance_articles.shtml

[2] Mather D.: "Work Order Execution and Data Capture"

http://www.maintenanceworld.com/articleArchive.htm

[3] Idhammar, C.: "Prioritize Your Maintenance Work Objectively", Maintenance

Planning Articles, http://www.maintenanceworld.com (February 2001).

[4] Stanojevic P.: "Influence of the Technical Factors on the Maintenance Systems
Organizational Structure", Doctoral Dissertation, University of Belgrade, Faculty of
Mechanical Engineering, 1997.

[5] Grothus, H.: "Maintenance Costs Planning", OMO, Belgrade, 1977.

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[6] Reliability Centered Maintenance Guide for Facilities and Collateral Equipment,
National Aeronautics and Space Administration - NASA, 2001.
[7] Zelenović, D.: "Production System Management (Anatomy of Management
Procedure)", Naučna Knjiga, Beograd, 1981.

[8] Radenković, B.: "Organisation System Modeling and Simulation Using a Simulation
System GPSS/FON", The Faculty of Organisational Science, Beograd, 1991.

[9] Aleksić, M.: "Fuzzy Logic Model for Operative Planning in Maintenance Systems",
M.Sc.Thesis, Military Academy, Beograd, 2002.

[10] Subašić, P.: "Fuzzy Logic and Neuron Networks", Tehnička knjiga, Beograd, 1997.

[11] Zadeh, L.: "The Concept of a Linguistic Variable and Its Aplication to
Approximate Reasoning", Information Science, 1975.

[12] FuzzyTECH 5.31 Professional, http://www.fuzzytech.com

[13] Fuzzy Logic Toolbox for Use with Matlab. http://www.mathworks.com

[14] Jantzen, J.: "Tech. report No98-864", Technical University of Denmark,

Department of Automation, 1998.

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