Prospects of Indias energy and emissions for a long time frame

Ullash K. Rout
a,b,c,n
a
Sustainable Energy Research Group, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University College Cork, Ireland
b
Environmental Research Institute (ERI), University College Cork, Lee Road, Cork, Ireland
c
Institut f ur Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER), Universit at Stuttgart, Hebr uhlstr. 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:
Received 14 January 2010
Accepted 14 April 2011
Keywords:
Energy demand
Energy indicator
Emission
a b s t r a c t
For any nation, sector-wise forecasts of energy demand and emissions are becoming valuable elements
in devising its national and international policies relating to energy security, local environment, and
global climate change. It is in this context that this work attempts to forecast Indias possible energy
demands and emissions adopting a key indicator approach on least cost generation expansion
optimization methodology for a long time frame. This study developed key indicators for useful-
energy demand for end-use sectors such as industry, commerce, and residence. Key indicators for
transport sector and non-energy use sectors were developed on transport mobility demand and end-
use fuel demand. The main drivers of these key indicators are socio-economic parameters. This work
was conducted in a linear programmed (LP) TIMES G5 model on TIMES modeling framework for model
horizon of 19902100. By the end of the 21st-century, Indias energy demands are projected to be about
1825 Mtoe of primary energy, 1263 Mtoe of nal energy consumption, 4840 TWh of electricity
generations, 723 Mtoe of energy import, and 4414 Mt of CO
2
emissions.
& 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Rapid development of a nation results increases in its econ-
omy, population, human development index (HDI), energy devel-
opment index (EDI), per capita GDP, industrialization (i.e.,
changeover from low productivity industry, e.g., agriculture to
high productivity industry, e.g., IT sector at present), urbanization
(i.e., society transformation), personal transport mobility, stan-
dard of living, and material intensive lifestyle culminating in
greater energy demand and higher emissions (Iniyan et al., 2006;
Petrofed, 2005; van Vuuren et al., 2003; Karekezi and Kimani,
2002). It is essential for a nation to project sector-wise, its future
demand for energy and the emissions it ares into the atmo-
sphere for assessing its fuel security through import, export, and
extraction policy development on indigenous resources and
reserves; plan and manage resources for sustainability; evolve
sector-wise curtailment policies on local- and global-emission;
plan its investments; and seek to sustain the system change of its
energy matrix by modication of fuel mix and rearrange its
technology mix for short and long terms (Akimoto et al., 2008;
Dorian et al., 2006; Vera and Langlois, 2007). Further, a preview of
the future sector-specic energy and emissions is necessary to
devise efcient policies and formulate strategies to move the
system dynamics in a sustainable (i.e., energy and environment
security and reliability) manner, and to lay down policy guide-
lines for adoption of a sector-wise approach for climate change
negotiations (Akimoto et al., 2008). Thus, forecasting future
energy and emissions is imperative for any region both in short
and long terms (Armstrong, 1980).
India being the second most populous developing nation with
a ourishing economy (one of the many economy transition
SAMBRIC (South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, India, and China)
nations) is currently a major force in the regional inuences on
global energy and emissions prole matrices and will continue to
be so in the future (Lu and Ma, 2004). Rapid changes in Indias
energy and emissions structure has brought into global focus its
need for emission reduction from its energy system especially in
the light of concerns over global climate change (Akimoto et al.,
2008). Though some work has been conducted on Indias long-
term energy demand and emission forecasts (Shukla et al., 2001,
2002), studies on sector-specic energy demand and emissions
through key indicators development are lacking in scientic
literature.
Forecasting the energy demand and emissions needs the
integrated involvement of the statisticians, analysts, policy
makers, and academicians with assessment tool of an integrated
energy system model (Vera and Langlois, 2007; Pilavachi et al.,
2008). Hence, since the mid-70s, the energy systems model has
been recognized as an extremely valuable tool for economic
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Energy Policy
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doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.026
n
Corresponding author at: Environmental Research Institute (ERI), University
College Cork, Lee Road, Cork, Ireland. Tel.: 353 21 420 5293;
fax: 353 21 490 1932.
E-mail address: ullashrout@rediffmail.com
Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663
analysis of energy issues. Therefore, to carry out this work on
sectoral energy demands and emission, a long-term ve-region
global energy system model TIMES G5 model is developed on the
TIMES modelling framework on key indicator approach.
Development of key indicators (by the statistical forecasting
method) for the useful-energy demand based on socio-economic
drivers adopting the least-cost economy optimization methodol-
ogy is a better demand-forecasting instrument. Its strong elasti-
city is more accountable than time series, evidence based,
straight-line extrapolation, and other econometric methods
(Akay and Atak, 2007; Vera and Langlois, 2007). A key indicator
is a quantitative parameter (an index number or ratio between
two parameters) derived from a series of observed facts that is
used to project the future course (Schipper et al., 2000). Energy
key indicators quantify the energy consumed per unit production
of GDP or consumption of energy per capita (that is considered in
this study), and provide information about the drivers of energy
use through smooth ow of elasticity among periods (IEA/India,
2002; Khan et al., 2000). That is why, it is a basic and useful tool
for decision makers and policy advisers.
The main objective of this article is to present an assessment of
Indias energy demands (i.e., primary and nal energy) and
emissions for the next hundred years based on a key indicator
development approach on useful-energy, nal energy, and trans-
port mobility demands. The key indicators are developed on
socio-economic factors. The assumptions on nal energy
demands and emission calibration from 1990 to 2030 have been
taken from WEO (2002, 2004); and mobility demands are taken
from different studies (see Sections 2.2 and Appendix A). The key
indicators are developed on the values by taking the assumed
drivers, i.e., socio-economic factors and transport demands (i.e.,
person-kilometer and ton-kilometer) that is provided in Section 2.
This work is conducted on the bottom-up energy system
1
TIMES
G5 energy optimization model (see Appendix A) based on the
reference energy system (RES) (see Fig. 1) to project the energy
demand of each sector on a long term based on the useful-energy
demand key indicators. In this article, we assess and present the
following: the electricity demand, the energy demand by sector,
the energy demand by fuel, the total nal energy demand, the
total primary energy demand, the primary energy demand by
fuel, emissions by sector, and some related key indicators.
The paper is divided into four sections and rest of the paper is
as follows. Section 2 contains the assumptions and key indicators
developed. Analysis of the results and key ndings are presented
in Section 3. Final section presents the conclusions drawn from
the study and recommendations.
2. Assumptions and key indicators development
The past, present, and future energy demands, sector-wise/
aggregate, of a region are vital factor to acquiring an under-
standing of the standard of living of the inhabitants, population
growth, and economic development, as the energy consumption
is an important factor behind all these activities. The question
arises, how can we assess the energy demand of a region and
what instrument can be developed for the purpose? Consumption
of energy at different points in time represented in a form that
maintains the consistency between these time points is termed a
key indicator. It is an indexa number or a ratiobetween the
Fig. 1. Reference energy system (RES) used in TIMES G5 model. Note: The hidden mathematical function behind total useful energy demand presented in the gure is,
useful energy demand of each typekey indicator demand driver. There are many key indicators by sectors are developed and presented. Sum of all these energy
demand is the specic sectors total useful energy demand. Useful energy demands of each type drive the development of primary and nal energy demand by technology
switch from upstream sector to down stream sector in linear program least-cost optimization approach.
1
For details of the TIMES G5 model, please refer Rout (2007) and Rout et al.
(2009a, b). The reference energy system (RES) of this model is given in Fig. 1.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5648
two chosen parameters derived from a series of historically
observed facts that can be projected to the future (Hart, 1999).
In this study, energy key indicators quantify the amount of energy
consumed per capita and energy use per unit production of GDP
(IEA/India, 2002; Schipper et al., 2000). The development of energy
intensity key indicator is supported by work of others (Khan et al.,
2000; IEA/India, 2002; Nag and Parikh, 2000). Development of per
capita and per GDP key indicators is based on composites fore-
casting method (i.e., growth theory on growth rate and absolute
value and probabilistic forecast by expert judgement), and these
key indicators are cross-compared with the developed key indi-
cators by end-use method on useful energy demands that is
provided in Appendix A.
Forecasting the future energy demand of India calls for an
examination of the current trends in energy consumption of the
end-use sectors (industry,
2
commerce (serviceagriculture), resi-
dence, transport and non-energy use) and their future behavior.
Sector-wise nal energy demand projections from 1990 to 2030
have been collected from studies by IEA (WEO, 2002, 2004). This
sector-wise energy use by fuels is further broken down by market
shares of all useful-energy consumption of different useful-energy
requirements in the residential, commerce, and industry sectors
from 1990 to 2030 with the help of the study by Madkaiker et al.
(2000), WEO (2002, 2004) and authors own assumptions. These
market shares and technical efciency related to the provider of
the useful-energy demand are assisted for the useful-energy
demand calculation, i.e., useful-energy demand is the product of
the share of fuels supplied to the specied useful-energy and
efciency of the fuel related technology (Madkaiker et al., 2000).
In some cases, the useful-energy demand is not considered. It is
presented as the nal energy demand as the technologies con-
cerned are not incorporated in the model. The substitution effect
of the technology is presented as the nal energy demand instead
of useful-energy, namely in the non-energy use sector. Sector
specic technologies to provide energy services with their
techno-economic parameters are presented in Rout (2007). Trans-
port key indicators are dened on person- and ton-kilometer
demands (see Table 1). The useful energy key indicators devel-
oped for the household sector are cross-checked by the exogen-
ous development for the same key indicators by the procedure
provided in the Appendix A. The key indicators formulated for
each sector and for each useful-energy demand; and the related
drivers are shown in Tables 1 and 2. Development of key
indicators for the socio-economic development, transport mobi-
lity demand, and useful-energy demand sectors is described in
Tables 1 and 2.
2.1. Socio-economic development
India is a vast country of an area of 3.29 million square
kilometer (329 ha), houses worlds 1.2 billion inhabitants (second
populous country in the world), is the worlds fourth largest
Table 1
Development of key indicators for different sectors.
Key indicator Unit Time period Gr. rate
(19902000)
Gr. rate
(20002050)
Gr. rate
(20502100)
1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Key indicators developed for the industry sector
Heat/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 1.190 0.951 0.820 0.487 0.366 0.294 2.220 1.327 1.007
Other-electric/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 0.250 0.191 0.169 0.155 0.151 0.149 2.635 0.416 0.084
Key indicators developed for the commerce sector
Cooling/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 0.079 0.067 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.039 1.730 1.019 0.025
Heating/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 0.077 0.045 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 5.184 1.909 0.035
Other-electric/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 0.048 0.072 0.177 0.146 0.124 0.101 4.181 1.408 0.737
Key indicators developed for the residence sector
Cooking/capita (PJ/M people) 0.951 1.147 1.582 2.594 2.876 2.933 1.891 1.646 0.245
Cooling/capita (PJ/M people) 0.024 0.360 1.107 1.992 2.361 2.656 30.874 3.483 0.577
Heating/capita (PJ/M people) 0.828 0.892 2.152 2.290 2.340 2.371 0.748 1.904 0.069
Other-electric/capita (PJ/M people) 0.073 0.288 0.785 1.400 1.564 1.585 14.715 3.215 0.248
Mobility demand and related key indicators developed for the transport sector
Per.-km. Billion km. 1337 2239 4170 6942 8964 9921 5.293 2.289 0.717
Ton-km. Billion km. 404 541 2136 4261 5618 5776 2.972 4.214 0.610
Per.-km./cap. k km/cap 1.57 2.20 2.95 4.31 5.24 5.74 3.427 1.349 0.576
Ton-km./GDP km/h(00) 0.27 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.21 0.17 2.338 0.314 0.788
Key indicator for non-energy use
Final energy use/GDP (PJ/Bh(00)) 0.178 0.179 0.102 0.075 0.068 0.086 0.000 0.017 0.003
Note: The development of key indicators from 1990 to 2030 are based on the data from WEO (2002, 2004), Rajesh et al. (2003), Mobility 2030 (2004), and Fulton and Eads
(2004).
Table 2
Assumptions on socio-economic parameters and their key indicators.
Source: WEO (2004), Rajesh et al. (2003), and IEO (2004).
Parameter Unit Time period Gr. rate
(19902000)
Gr. rate
(20002050)
Gr. rate
(20502100)
1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Population Million 850 1016 1416 1612 1711 1729 1.805 0.928 0.140
GDP (ppp) B h(00) 1510 2564 9052 17264 26516 34,762 5.437 3.888 1.410
GDP/cap. k h(00)/cap. 1.78 2.52 6.39 10.71 15.50 20.10 3.568 2.933 1.268
2
Commerce sector includes the service and agriculture sectors, as the data of
agriculture sector is difcult to get for India.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5649
economy in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) and currently
a fast growing economy. Indias population has grown from 300
million in 1947 (during independence) to 1028 million in 2001
and the annual population growth rate has remained on an
average 1.7%/year for last decade (WEO, 2007). This demographic
gure is expected to reach 1612 million in 2050 and 1729 million
in 2100, increasing at an average growth rate of 0.65%/year (see
Table 2). With passage of time, this projected growth rate
decreases from 0.93%/year between 2000 and 2050 and to
0.14%/year between 2050 and 2100. Indias population growth
shows a rise till 2100 after which the growth rate trend declines
with passage of time. Indias GDP on purchasing power parity
basis (ppp) was 1510 billion h(00) in the year 1990, 2836 billion
h(00) in year 2003, and is expected to touch 34762 billion h(00) in
year 2100 (Shukla et al., 2001, 2002; WEO, 2004). In this study,
GDP growth maintains the increasing trend at a growth rate of
3.89%/year for the period 20002050 and 1.41%/year for the
period 20502100. IEO (International Energy Outlook, 2004)
assumes the future growth rate of Indias GDP from 2001 to
2025 to be around 5.2%/year. The growth rate of GDP in this study
can be compared from the study of Rajesh et al. (2003), 5.5%/year
between 2000 and 2025, about 5% between 2025 and 2050, ca.
4.5% between 2050 and 2075, 3.5% between 2075 and 2085,
before stabilizing at 2% by year 2100. Generic assumptions of the
drivers of Indias energy demand are noted in Table 2; of special
note are the GDP, the population, and the GDP/capita. Generally,
growth of population as well as GDP are higher in the rst half of
the century and decline in the second half as India completes its
transformation from a developing economy to a transition econ-
omy and from a transition economy to developed economy before
the middle of this century. Having reached the milestone of peak
development (i.e., economic saturation), the GDP development
rate will decline in the latter half of the century. Development of
socio-economic values is based on hybrid forecasting method of
growth theory on growth rate and absolute value, and probabil-
istic forecast by expert judgement.
2.2. Transport sector
The transport sector consists of transport of people and of
goods. Two key indicators have been dened, one for the
transportation of the people, in which transport of people is
related to per capita energy demand of kilometer and the other
for transport of goods is related to per GDP demand of kilometer
(see Table 1). Energy demand projections of person-kilometer and
ton-kilometer for India from year 2000 to 2050 are taken from the
projections of the energy technology perspective (ETP) model and
the work of Mobility 2030 (2004), and Fulton and Eads (2004),
computed till 2100 by combining forecast of growth theory on
growth rate and absolute value, probabilistic forecast by expert
judgement. Modal split is considered for both person- and ton-
kilometer demands. Growth rates and absolute values for trans-
port key indicators development have been considered from
different works (Sch afer, 2000; R uhle, 2006). The person-kilo-
meter demand and ton-kilometer demand for the period 1990
and 1995 for India have been obtained from the study of Shukla
et al. (2001) and Madkaiker et al. (2000). Transportation demand
will increase rapidly in the future, driven by rapid population
growth, expanding economic activities, dramatic rise of employ-
ment rate, urbanization, rising standard of living, and expanding
ownership of private automobiles. Further, the growth in the
economy, modern social lifestyle with higher material depen-
dence, disparities in production and consumption within a range,
and uneven distribution of natural resources in this sector will
bring about an increase of the ton-kilometer demand. Road
transportation will predominate in India (WMRC (World
Markets Research Centre), 2004) both in terms of person- and
ton-kilometer demands.
2.3. Industry sector
In the industry sector, two key indicators were developed; one
is the heat demand (i.e., process heat, space heating, and hot
water requirement) per GDP and the other, electricity demand
(i.e., used in appliances and lighting) per GDP. The process heat is
categorized into low-, medium-, and high-temperature process
heats. These key indicators were developed and derived from the
IEA statistics of nal energy consumption in the industry sector
from 1990 to 2030 and the future value of the key indicators till
2100 are projected by composite forecast approach of growth
theory on growth rate and absolute value, and probabilistic
forecast by expert judgement. Maximum and minimum absolute
values and growth rates of intensity have been cared in the key
indicators development. In the course of the development of these
key indicators, it was observed that the values of the key
indicators decrease from start to end of the period, indicating
that the GDP growth rate surpasses the growth rate of the energy
demand of the industrial sector. Also, improvements effected in
energy efciency bring about the reduction in energy intensity.
The heating key indicator developed in this work varies from
1.19 MJ/h(00) for the year 1990 to 0.294 MJ/h(00) for the year
2100. But, the other electric key indicator developed varies from
0.25 MJ/h(00) for the year 1990 to 0.149 MJ/h(00) for the
year 2100.
2.4. Commerce sector
The growth of GDP and population drives the activities in the
commerce sector (it includes the agriculture sector that uses
more than 98% of electricity in its total fuel-mix matrix (IEA/Non-
OECD, 2003)) resulting in higher energy demand. The increase in
population calls for more services (e.g., healthcare, education,
nancial activity, legal matter, government activity, etc.); also,
higher levels of economic activity lead to higher disposable
incomes, which raise the demand for leisure requirements leading
to increased energy demands. Rapid increase in population will
require more staple food grains that will require more energy for
its production (i.e., for different activities such as soil preparation
(tilling), seeding, transplantation, irrigation, inter-culturing,
weeding, harvesting, thrashing, and transportation). The increase
in electricity demand of Indias commerce sector is due to rapid
growth of commercial activities, and widespread use of advanced
appliances. The agricultural activities will demand more electri-
city for water-pumping, machine operated tilling, harvesting, and
milling. Future energy mix scenario of this sector will integrate
more electricity and natural gas by displacing the oil operated
pump-sets and agricultural machineries, and non-conventional
energy operated (i.e., muscle power of human and animals)
ploughing and irrigation. Major part of total energy use in
agricultural sector is used in irrigation and tilling (Devia et al.,
2009). Three key indicators have been developed for commerce
sector to fulll the useful-energy demand of cooling, heating, and
other electricity usage. Cooling and heating demands are those of
space cooling and heating, process heat requirement of small
cottage industries, and the requirements of warm water. But, the
other electricity consumption is that used for appliances,
machines (that includes agricultural machines), and lighting.
These key indicators were developed on the nal energy demand
projections for commercial applications obtained from WEO
(2002, 2004) for the years 1990 to 2030 and the future value of
the key indicators till 2100 by composite forecast approach of
growth theory on growth rate and absolute value, probabilistic
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5650
forecast by expert judgement. Final energy carriers were allocated
different shares for the various useful-energy services (Madkaiker
et al., 2000). In some cases the values are self-assumed. Efciency
of the technology and measures instituted for its improvement
were taken into consideration for the calculation of useful-energy
demand. All these key indicators were based on the nations
overall GDP rather than on sector-specic GDP as future projec-
tions for the latter were not available during this work performed.
Heating and cooling key indicators declined with passage of time,
whereas other electric demand key indicators showed increases
till the year 2030 and decreased thereafter as growth of electricity
demand dominates the growth of GDP (see Table 1; Mallah and
Bansal, in press). The heating key indicator developed in this work
varies from 0.077 MJ/h(00) in the year 1990 to 0.017 MJ/h(00) in
the year 2100. The cooling key indicator developed varies from
0.079 MJ/h(00) in the year 1990 to 0.039 MJ/h(00) in the year
2100. Furthermore, the other electric key indicator developed
varies from 0.048 MJ/h(00) in the year 1990 to 0.101 MJ/h(00) in
the year 2100. During the development of the key indicator, it
was generally observed that commercial activities are less energy
intensive than industrial activities as the percentage of energy
intensive industries in the commercial sector is lower than in the
industrial sector.
2.5. Residence sector
Household energy accounts for about half of Indias total nal
energy consumption (see Appendix A). NSSO (1997) says the total
household energy consumption in India is around 3075% of the
total energy consumption in the country in which 90% of the
energy goes for cooking food (NCAER, 1985; Natarajan, 1985).
Lighting and other end uses account for only 6.3% and 4.0% of the
total energy consumption, respectively (NCAER, 1985). In 1995,
biomass provided 77% of household energy consumption, liquid
fuels 18%, and electricity 5%. Cooking and water heating energy
demand together account for about 90% of household energy use
(Dzioubinski and Chipman, 1999a, b).
Four key indicators developed for the residential sector,
namely cooking-, cooling-, heating-, and other electricity-
demands for India from 1990 to 2100 are given in Table 1.
Methodology of composite forecasting such growth theory on
growth rate and absolute value, probabilistic forecast by expert
judgement with account of saturation effect has been considered
inside the residential key indicator development. Total household
energy demand of the nation (urban and rural) is calculated by
the end use method similar to work of Pachauri (2004) and
Hongtao et al. (2003) to get an average value to cross-check the
developed useful energy key indicators. In cooking energy
demand key indicator development, the rating of the devices
and utilization of the device per day per capita has been
considered. Cooling and heating energy demand key indicators
account rating of the device, utilization of the device, number of
devices per person, space area per person, energy consumption
per unit area (i.e., energy intensity), and energy density per
annum. For electricity key indicator, different devices (i.e., light-
ing and appliances) are considered with their rating, utilization
rate and devices per person. Cooking energy demand index is
developed on the energy consumption of warm meals, snacks,
and warm beverages. Cooling- and heating-demands are for space
cooling and heating consumption; process heat consumption for
small commercial industries; and cold- and warm-water con-
sumption. But, the other electricity index represents the electri-
city used in appliances, machines and for lighting. These key
indicators are noted in Table 1 from the year 1990 to the year
2100. The useful-energy key indicator developed for cooking
applications in this work varies from 0.951 GJ/capita/year in year
1990 to 2.933 GJ/capita/year in 2100, i.e., from 1.0485 kWh/day/
capita in 1990 to 2.22 kWh/day/capita in 2100. The useful-energy
demand for cooking considers three warm meals (each of 35 min),
two snacks (total 13.5 min) and warm beverages consumed three
times per person per day (each of 5 min). This study possibly
considers the higher side value of cooking energy demand. The
assessment out of 420 households by Balakrishnan et al. (2004)
presents, women who had outdoor jobs cooked two small meals
over half-hour periods in the morning and evening and women
who stayed at home cooked one large meal over a period of
1.52 h. Since diet includes food rather than staple, the cooking
energy consumption per day/year per person is a useful tool to
estimate fairly accurately the energy consumption of a region.
This work included partly the energy consumption of the com-
merce sector in the residential sector energy demand as in many
parts the demand for snacks is included in the energy consump-
tion of the commercial sector. Per capita cooking energy demand
depends on the type of fuel used, heat value of the fuels and the
technologies available for the fuels, efciency of the technologies,
manner of utilization of cooking devices (open re, three stone,
etc.), employment rate, household size, number of meals cooked
per day, income level of the family to spend on an outside meal,
cooking for an individual or in bulk, cooking utensils used,
varieties and types of foods cooked (e.g., rice takes 2030 min
to be steamed and consumes 1238 MJ/kg; but the kidney beans
takes more than 3 h and consumes around 225 MJ/kg) (WEC,
2005; Ravindranath and Ramakrishna, 1997). Further, attitudes,
traditional and cultural values inuence demand for cooking
energy (Filippini and Pachauri, 2004). Based on eld measure-
ments, one research project found that the daily cooking energy
consumption per capita ranges between 11.5 and 49 MJ (i.e.,
4.217.9 GJ/capita/year) (WEC, 2005). In the household sector,
where modern cooking energy sources and equipments are used
and preparation of partially cooked food are common, the specic
fuel consumption per capita lies between 2 and 3 MJ/day (WEC,
2005). In addition, in the SAGE MARKAL model of India, the
cooking energy demand is considered about 5 MJ/capita/year.
Gross cooking energy demand varies from (632) MJ/capita/day
on the assumption of two warm meals using biomass (ABE, 1985;
Ravindranath and Ramakrishna, 1997).
The useful-energy key indicator developed for cooling of space
in this work varies from 0.024 GJ/capita/year in 1990 to 2.656 GJ/
capita/year in 2100. The cooling value can be compared with the
energy demand for air-conditioning of Zaozhuang province of
about 32 MJ/capita/year in 2000 (Hongtao et al., 2003). The
useful-energy demand for cooling depends on the space area
required per capita, cooling intensity required per unit space area,
insulation level of the house (conduction loss or cooling), main-
tenance of temperature level inside the house, efciency of the
technology used, climatic conditions, nature of the building
construction (passive, zero-emission, body heat, etc.), materials
used in the building, and its geographical location (WEC, 2005).
The value of heating key indicator developed in this work
varies from 0.828 GJ/capita/year in 1990 to 2.371 GJ/capita/year
in 2100. The oor area considered varies from 18 m
2
in 1990 to
25 m
2
in 2100 and heat values vary from 10.22 kWh/m
2
/a in 1990
to 21.35 kWh/m
2
/a in 2100. This value derived for India can be
compared with the heat demand of about (115148) GJ/year for a
house of 236 m
2
area (space) in Sweden and includes energy
consumed for both space heating and for heating tap water using
an electric immersion heater (Gustavsson and Joelsson, 2007;
Joelsson and Gustavsson, 2008). The heating key indicator value
can be compared to 6.48 GJ/capita/year for Zaozhuang province,
which assumes per capita oor area of 2530 m
2
, space heating
energy intensity of constant value (30 W/m
2
), heating duration of
100 days per year and 24 h per day (MGZ (Municipal Government
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5651
of Zaozhuang), 2003). The useful-energy demand for heating
depends on space area required per capita, heating intensity
required per unit space area, insulation level of the house
(conduction loss of heating), maintenance of temperature level
inside the house, efciency of the technology used, climatic
conditions, nature of the building construction (passive, zero-
emission, body heat, etc.), material used in the building and
geographical location (WEC, 2005). In this study, the hot water
requirement per capita is included in the heating requirement per
capita.
The value of the other electric useful-energy key indicator
varies from 0.073 GJ/capita in 1990 to 1.585 GJ/capita in year
2100. It can be compared to the urban energy demand for lighting
and electric appliances of 610 MJ per capita in 2000 for India,
1740 MJ per capita in 2000 for Beijing (Tong, 2002), and future
development of 1760 MJ per capita in 2020 for Zaozhuang
province (Hongtao et al., 2003). Also, the values can be compared
with the rural per capita energy demand for lighting and electric
appliances of 270 MJ in 2000, and 1170 MJ in 2020 for Zaozhuang
province (Hongtao et al., 2003) and 850 MJ in year 2020 for rural
areas of Beijing (Tong, 2002). Demand for other electric consump-
tion in the household sector increases with greater use and
penetration of electric appliances (WEC, 2005).
The useful-energy key indicators for India include the served
and un-served sections of population (i.e., total population) to
arrive an aggregate average value; for example, many people have
no proper access to energy services but they are included in the
computation of the national average value for useful-energy
service. But, key indicators are dened by various authors based
on different data sets by taking account of diversied climate may
lack consistency in the source of their data collection and the
computation methods adopted. Besides, social characteristics and
individuals habits can have an impact on the useful-energy
demand of the household sector and related key indicators too
(Filippini and Pachauri, 2004).
3. Results
The model development, the energy system cost optimization
and the result analysis took place for 19 periods (i.e., whole model
horizon from 1990 to 2100 is divided into 19 periods) (Rout,
2007), but for the compatibility and clarity, the results are
provided for six periods (see Table 3).
3.1. Electricity generation
The electricity generation sector produces power for all end-use
sectors. While all end-use sectors need more electricity in the
future, the sectors that inuence demand are industry, household,
and commerce in this region. It is due to the shifting of heavy
industry to light industry and high penetration of the electrical
appliances in the industry, residential, and commerce sectors.
Transport sector demands a certain level of electricity due to the
introduction of electricity-operated vehicles. Net electricity demand
increased from 645 TWh in 2000 to 1910 TWh in 2030, and is
expected to rise to 3013 TWh in 2050, 4389 TWh in 2070,
and 4840 TWh in 2100, with an average growth rate of approx.
2.1%/year from 2000 to 2100 (see Table 3). The growth of electricity
demand per annum increases between 2010 and 2050, but
decreases between 2050 and 2100 by reecting the decrease in
overall growth per annum after reaching saturation in energy
consumption. The average per capita electricity consumption of
India increased from 256 kWh in year 1990 and is expected to rise
to 1763 kWh in year 2050, and to 2735 kWh in year 2100 (see
Table 3).
The market shares of coal, oil, hydro, and small hydro in
electricity generation are expected to decrease. By the year 2100,
individual fuel in total fuel shares of about 65% of hard coal, 17%
of natural gas, 10% of hydro, of 4% nuclear, 2% of wind resources
and the remaining share of oil will be replaced by other renew-
able energy sources (see Table 3). These other renewable energy
sources are biomass, biogas, waste, geothermal, and solar. As the
region tries to integrate certain percentage of renewable electri-
city into the energy mix at present and in the future, an increase
is expected in the share of renewable energy from the start to the
end of the period (i.e., min. ca. 1.5% at starting year to max.
around 4% in the end period of the model horizon on total
electricity generated).
As it is cheap and easy to access, coal secures the largest share
in total electricity generation from the starting period to the end
period of the modeling periods. Market share of hydropower
generation is lower as there is unexploited potential in the river
basins (as at present only o20% of the hydro resource of India is
exploited). Hydropower is costly and generation by large hydro-
power plants even with stored water (dam system) diminishes as
the development of the large hydropower generation has always
been a controversial issue owing to issues such as submergence of
the agricultural land areas, endangering aquatic species, damage
to local environment, accelerating biodiversity, need for costly
human rehabilitation, and exploration of river basins poses
danger to water-sheds. Development of small hydropower sta-
tions in India is now of marginal importance though the North
East region of India has some potential for the exploitation of the
hydropower. In addition, in the northern part of India on the bank
of the river Ganga, Yamuna, Saraswati, and Brahmaputra, some
potential exists for the exploitation of the hydro electricity.
Exploitation of running rivers for hydro-electricity generation is
not possible in India as many rivers are the livelihood of its
shermen, dry during summer time, and are generally of
shallow types.
3.2. Energy consumption in end-use sectors and total nal energy
consumption
3.2.1. Total nal energy consumption
Indias total nal energy consumption is projected to reach
645 Mtoe in 2030, 975 Mtoe in 2050, 1164 Mtoe in 2070, and
1263 Mtoe in 2100 as given in Table 3. This rise in the year 2100
compared to 1990 is approximately 4.43 times and grows at an
average growth rate of 1.36%/year. The growth of the energy
demand per year peaks from 2030 to 2050 due to the high GDP
and population growth in this period.
Comparing energy carriers, oil claims the highest share in the
total nal energy consumption due to the transport sector. The
second and third positions are occupied by electricity and coal,
respectively. India is going towards the use of more clean and
commercial fuels, i.e., uses more renewable, natural gas, and
electricity in total nal energy consumption that are commercial
fuels and reduce the use of traditional biomass in the future. Of
the total nal energy consumption in the year 2100, the share of
oil is about 31.0%, coal 8.65%, electricity 29.52%, and natural gas
7.97% and other energy carriers take the rest share (see Table 3).
In the total nal energy demand, efcient and commercial fuels
gain greater market shares over the inefcient and emission-
intensive fuels (Ang and Liu, 2006).
Energy demands of all sectors increase from the start to the
end of the periods of the modeling horizon. The residential sector
is the leading energy consumer towards the end period and in
descending orders are industry, transport, commerce, and non-
energy use. Sector-wise nal energy consumption is presented in
Table 3. Market share in percentage of sector-wise energy
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5652
demand changes from 2000 to 2100 such as: industry from 26% to
29%, residential from 59% to 40%, commerce sector from 3% to
10%, transport from 9% to 18%, and non-energy sector does not
change its market share but changes in absolute value (see
Table 3). The residential sector loses its high market share owing
to the phase out of inefcient biomass projected in the future.
Total nal energy consumption per GDP (i.e., energy intensity)
declines from 0.189 toe/kh(00) in year 1990 to 0.036 toe/kh(00) in
year 2100 at an average growth rate of 1.51%/year (see Table 3).
This implies the GDP growth is higher compared to growth of
energy demand, the degree in structural shift of sector-wise
energy demand, i.e., heavy industry to light industry (Klaassen
and Riahi, 2007), and level of efcient fuel integration (Rout et al.,
2008). Energy intensity of Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and
China was 0.157 toe/kUS$(95), 0.107 toe/kUS$(95), 0.144 toe/
kUS$(95), and 0.288 toe/kUS$(95) in 1990 respectively on pur-
chasing power parity (ppp) basis (IEA-CO
2
, 2003). But, the total
nal energy consumption per capita increases from 0.335 toe in
year 1990 to 0.731 toe in year 2100, at an average growth rate of
0.71%/year (see Table 3).
3.2.2. Energy consumption in transport sector
The fastest growth of energy demand has been in the transport
sector. The energy demand of this sector is projected to reach
76 Mtoe in 2030, 149 Mtoe in 2050, 201 Mtoe in 2070, and
230 Mtoe in 2100. The transport energy demand is slated to rise
8.7 times between 1990 and 2100. In all time periods, the share of
oil remains highest (i.e., 490%). Shares of traditional fuels, such as
coal and biomass are expected to phase out gradually from the
start of the period to its end. Market shares of electricity, natural
gas, methanol, ethanol, and bio-fuels are expected to increase in
future. Rise in oil prices has made compressed natural gas (CNG)
cost effective for uses in this long time horizon study. The
increase in demand for transport sector energy has its roots in
the shift in mobility from the common mode to individual mode
engendered by the inconvenient mass communication system,
increases in the employment rate, rise in population, growth of
GDP, greater recreation activity occasioned by economic growth,
resource disparities between deposit sites and load centers,
import and export of commodities, and higher orientation to
materialistic lifestyles. A larger number of personal vehicle
Table 3
Model results on sectoral energy demand by fuel and different indicator.
Parameter/fuel/indicator Unit 1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Net electricity generation TWh 295 645 1910 3013 4389 4840
Net electricity generation by fuel
Coal % 68 74 57 55 67 65
Oil % 4 4 1 1 1 0
Natural gas % 2 8 24 25 16 17
Nuclear % 2 2 6 6 5 4
Hydro % 24 11 11 11 9 10
Biomass % 0 0 1 1 1 1
Others
a
% 0 0 1 1 2 3
Final energy demand Mtoe 285 357 645 975 1164 1263
Final energy demand by fuel
Coal % 15 10 13 11 9 9
Oil % 18 23 26 27 29 30
Natural gas % 2 3 7 7 5 8
Electricity % 7 10 22 25 31 31
District heat % 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass % 59 51 16 11 6 5
Others
b
% 0 3 16 18 19 18
Final energy demand by sector
Industry % 25 26 33 27 28 29
Commerce % 3 3 8 9 10 10
Residence % 61 59 43 46 42 40
Transport % 9 9 12 15 17 18
Non-energy use % 2 3 3 3 3 3
Primary energy demand Mtoe 357 512 920 1347 1686 1825
Primary energy demand by fuel
Coal % 28 33 36 33 41 40
Oil % 16 18 20 21 22 22
Natural gas % 2 4 13 14 10 13
Nuclear % 0 1 3 4 3 3
Hydro % 2 1 2 2 2 2
Biomass % 52 41 18 16 11 10
Others
c
% 0 1 9 10 10 10
Import of fossil fuel
Coal Mtoe 2 15 24 43 89 95
Oil Mtoe 21 75 148 289 365 395
Natural gas Mtoe 0 0 47 86 169 233
Indicators developed on model outcomes of primary and nal energy
Primary energy demand/GDP ktoe/h(00) 0.236 0.200 0.102 0.078 0.064 0.053
Final energy demand/GDP ktoe/h(00) 0.189 0.139 0.071 0.056 0.044 0.036
Primary energy demand/capita toe/capita 0.420 0.504 0.650 0.835 0.986 1.056
Final energy demand/capita toe/capita 0.335 0.351 0.455 0.605 0.680 0.731
Net electricity demand/capita kWh/capita 256 416 1177 1763 2418 2635
Note: Sectoral total nal energy demand will be the product of share of the sector in total nal energy demand multiplied by total nal energy consumption. The indicators
on primary energy demand and nal energy demands on GDP and population are provided in Table 3.
a
Others include deuterium, lithium, geothermal, solar, waste, wind, biogas, and hydrogen.
b
Others contain methanol, ethanol, hydrogen, geothermal, solar, biogas, and environmental heat.
c
Others consist of deuterium, lithium, geothermal, solar, waste, wind, and environmental heat.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5653
registrations will lead to more energy demand for the transport of
both personnel and goods.
3.2.3. Energy consumption in industry sector
The industrial sector energy demand rose from 70 Mtoe in the
year 1990, and is expected to rise to 215 Mtoe in 2030, 264 Mtoe
in 2050, 324 Mtoe in 2070, and 366 Mtoe in 2100; at an average
growth rate of 1.53%/year between initial and nal periods of the
modeling horizon. Increase in the energy demand in this sector, is
due to more materialistic lifestyles and increased use of industrial
products in infrastructure development. Apart from this, modern
life requires more of industrial products that are energy intensive.
Electricity and coal penetrate more into the industry sector
energy demand. Shares of oil and natural gas reduce as these
are mostly imported fuels and are expensive.
3.2.4. Energy consumption in commerce sector
The commerce sector energy demand is projected to rise to 51,
84, 115, and 131 Mtoe in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100,
respectively. The increase in energy demand projected for 2100 is
almost 15.5 times compared to the 1990 level and maintains an
average growth rate of 2.53%/year. Increases in demand are due to
structural shift in energy consumption, changeover from tradi-
tional fuel to the commercial fuels, introduction of cost-free
carriers like solar and geothermal energy for utilization in
efcient and sophisticated modern technology to meet useful-
energy demand for heating and cooling applications.
3.2.5. Energy consumption in residential sector
Appliance utilization in the residential sector accounts for
higher energy consumption. Indias energy demand in the house-
hold sector is projected to reach 280 Mtoe in 2030, 451 Mtoe in
2050, 493 Mtoe in 2070, and 507 Mtoe in 2100. Between the
commencement and end of the periods, the ratio of the residential
sector energy use in India rises 2.91 times at an average growth
rate of 0.98%/year. Electricity, solar, natural gas, heat, and
geothermal energy gain a marginal entry share in this period,
whereas the conventional fuels and heavy emitting fuels (i.e., coal
and oil) increase their market shares slightly. Biomass reduces
substantially its share from 1990 to 2100. A phase out of biomass
is considered likely to reduce the indoor and outdoor pollution
that causes premature death of human capital. The residential
sector is projected to change over from inefcient biomass
consumption to efcient commercial fuels. Though the energy
demand in the residential sector rises from the year 2000 to 2100,
its market share decreases owing to the projected higher utiliza-
tion of the efcient appliances in the future
3.2.6. Energy consumption in non-energy use sector
Non-energy uses of white spirit, parafn, waxes, lubricants,
bitumen, graphite, carbon black, and other products arise from oil
and coal. These products are exclusively for non-energy use and
are not accounted in the sector-wise energy consumption esti-
mates (OECD, 1999). India is projected to attain the non-energy
use energy demand of 22 Mtoe in 2030, 27 Mtoe in 2050,
495 Mtoe in 2070, and 30 Mtoe in 2100 compared to 33 Mtoe in
1990. The non-energy use in the nal period increases 5.5 times
compared to the initial period of the models horizon at an
average growth rate of 2.03%/year.
3.3. Primary energy consumption, import, and export
The primary energy demand reaches 920 Mtoe in 2030,
1347 Mtoe in 2050, 1686 Mtoe in 2070, and 1825 Mtoe in
2100 as depicted in Table 3. The average growth rate of total
primary energy consumption from 1990 to 2100 is 1.48%/year. In
total primary energy consumption, biomass holds the largest
share, coal remains in the second position, while oil retains the
third position towards the initial time period of the modeling
horizon, but towards the end of the period, coal supersedes
biomass and replaces it. Biomass loses its market share of
51.59% in 1990 to 10.28% in 2100. Natural gas gains market share
from the start to end of the period (1.96% in 1990 to 12.77% in
2100). Nuclear and hydro diffuse to certain extent for power
generation. Solar energy penetrates marginally into the energy
system for minimum renewable electricity production and cook-
ing of food materials. Indias primary energy demand achieves
stronger growth during the rst half of the century than in the
second half because of the countrys transformation from devel-
oping to developed status. After attaining developed status (i.e.,
saturation in economic values), the energy and emission growth
rates remain marginal.
Primary energy consumption per GDP decreases from
0.236 ktoe/h(00) in year 1990 to 0.053 ktoe/h(00) in year 2100
at an average growth rate of 1.367%/year. This implies that to
generate unit economy, the energy requirement in future is lower
for autonomous increase in energy efciency. Under higher price
regime of fuels, the efcient technologies having higher invest-
ment cost become cost-effective to supply services. Similarly, the
primary energy consumption per capita increases from 0.46 toe in
year 1990 to 1.056 toe in year 2100, at an average growth rate of
0.84%/year for a growing economy.
India will have to meet its future unmet and un-served energy
demands, especially of fuels like crude oil and natural gas,
through import from other resource abundant regions as Indias
indigenous resources are not sufcient enough to satisfy its
demands (see Table 3). India imports natural gas and crude oil
from the non-OECD region and coking coal from China and
R_OECD countries. Its import needs of natural gas are about
47 Mtoe in year 2030, 86 Mtoe in 2050, and 233 Mtoe in year
2100 to secure its energy requirements and ensure reliable fuel
supply. In addition, import of crude oil is projected to touch about
148 Mtoe in 2030, 289 Mtoe in 2050, and 395 Mtoe in 2100.
3.4. CO
2
emission
The change in primary fuel mix has an impact on the growth of
emissions by sector-wise and in the aggregate. The CO
2
emission is expected to reach 2022 Mt in 2030, 2918 Mt in
2050, 4029 Mt in 2070, and 4479 Mt in 2100 (see Table 4),
notwithstanding the average growth rate of the emission
declining from 2.22%/year in the rst half of the century
(20002050) to 0.63%/year in the second half (20502100).
In the rst half of the century, the CO
2
emission increases at a
higher rate due to the higher rate of carbon intensive energy
consumption. But, in the latter half, it reduces because of the
increased use of natural gas, nuclear, hydro, low carbon- and non-
carbon energy carriers that raise auto fuel efciency. The emission
indicator CO
2
/capita rises from 0.965 ton/capita in 2000, to
1.428 ton/capita in 2030, 1.81 ton/capita in 2050, 2.355 ton/capita
in 2070, and 2.553 ton/capita in 2100. The CO
2
emission per
capita of Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and China was 12.15
tCO
2
/capita, 8.25 tCO
2
/capita, 9.78 tCO
2
/capita, and 1.99 tCO
2
/
capita in 1990 respectively (IEA-CO
2
, 2003). The GDP based
indicators CO
2
/GDP decrease from 0.382 kg/h(00) in 2000 to
0.127 kg/h(00) in 2100. The CO
2
intensity of Germany, Japan,
United Kingdom, and China was 0.61 kg CO
2
/US$(95), 0.37 kg
CO
2
/US$(95), 0.56 kg CO
2
/US$(95), and 1.35 kg CO
2
/US$(95)
in 1990, respectively, on purchasing power parity (ppp) basis
(IEA-CO
2
, 2003).
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5654
4. Conclusions and recommendations
The long-term energy and emissions forecast of India through
key indicators development was conducted employing the TIMES
G5 model on least cost energy optimization approach to project
the possible energy demands and emission. Conventional fuels
(lignite and biomass) reduce their market shares but commercial
fuels (electricity, natural gas, renewable, district heat, bio-fuels,
hydrogen, and synthetic fuels) gain sizable market shares due to
phasing out of emission-intensive fuels and the learning phenom-
ena of commercial/renewable fuels; the depletion of fossil fuels
increases its costs, i.e., reduction of swallow excavation implies to
go for deep excavation, and rise in autonomous energy efciency
(Rout et al., 2008; Hotelling, 1931; Mukhopadhyay and
Chakraborty, 1999; Nag and Parikh, 2000). Electricity demand
increases in the sector-wise energy demand as it is of easily
integrated in the technology of appliances, is convenient to
convert from one form to another and is clean in nature. Biomass
utilization gains sizable market share in industrial applications
for its co-ring application in multi-fuel red technologies.
Integrated gasication combined cycles (IGCC) and combined
cycle gas turbine (CCGT) technologies penetrate substantially into
the energy system. Condensing coal plants penetrate more com-
pared to backpressure CHP (combined heat and power) plants, as
this region requires very less heat energy demand in household
sector for its hot climatic condition. Further, the infrastructure for
the decentralized heating system is in a rudimentary state, as the
process heat requirement for the industrial applications has to be
produced in the country (by independent power producers (IPPs)
or auto-producers).
Indias electricity, nal energy, primary energy generation, and
CO
2
emissions are expected to be approximately 4840 TWh,
1263 Mtoe, 1825 Mtoe, and 4414 Mt, respectively, in the year
2100. India is a net importer of energy and is projected to import
around 395 Mtoe of oil (i.e., crude oil and oil products), 233 Mtoe
of natural gas, and 95 Mtoe of coal in the year 2100. Development
of the future energy and emission scenarios of a nation are the
plausible stories similar to the scenarios of Scramble and
Blueprint (Shell, 2001). Anyhow, the preparedness of long-term
forecast of the energy and emissions of a system is most
necessary equipment for the future expansion planning and
devising strategies as some projects (e.g., steel/hydro plants) need
lengthy lead time for proposal, planning, prescribing, approving,
and commissioning.
This study will encourage future researchers to work on key
indicator approaches for study of energy and emissions at local,
national, regional, and global levels. Energy consumption per
capita on urban, peri-urban, and rural societies based on their
economic purchasing power has great impact on useful-energy
demand. Disaggregation of industrial activities to sub-industrial
activities will provide better prospect. Breaking down these
factors and closing the uncertainties will provide better perspec-
tive of the future energy structure of the nation. The study
considered the overall GDP for development of key indicators
due to sector-specic GDP data being unavailable. This may not
differentiate sector-wise useful-energy demand well. We recom-
mend future researchers to develop key indicators on sector-
specic GDP rather than overall GDP as such a course may
provide better perspective (i.e., on sector-specic key indicator
values and results).
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank to the employees colleagues of
the Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy
(IER) at the University of Stuttgart, Germany for their help
and support during this work carried out. The author thanks
Prof. Nicky France, Mrs. Fiona Healy, and anonymous reviewers
for their suggestions to improve this article.
Appendix A
Country overview on energy, emissions, and challenges
Electricity
In India, electricity generation is growing at a prodigious rate
and has doubled since 1990. It rose from 301 TWh in 19921993
to 531 TWh in 20022003, and 558 TWh in 20032004 (MOP
(Ministry of Power), 2004). During the early fties, the per capita
electricity consumption was 15 kWh compared to 334.24 kWh in
199697 and 348.50 kWh in 199798 (MOP, 2006). Power gen-
eration capacity rose from approx. 74 GW in 1990 to ca. 108 GW
in 2000 (see Fig. 2). In each ve-year plan, the nation establishes a
certain capacity development by fuel as policy target. Some of the
future capacity development of policy target by fuel has been
considered in this study. In total power generation capacity, coal
retains highest share followed by hydro the second position. Oil
diminished the market share from 1990 to 2000, whereas natural
gas gained the market share. Nuclear has marginal share in the
range of maximum 3%. Due to insufcient investment, the power
sector of India suffers from a long-standing power shortage
(energy loss around 9% and peak load loss around 14%) (MOP,
2006), brownouts (i.e., voltage sag), load shedding, and blackout
events. Voltage sag is the most common phenomenon arising
Table 4
Sectoral emission structure and related indicators.
Sector/indicator (unit) 1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100 Gr. rate (%/a)
(20002050)
Gr. rate (%/a)
(20502100)
CO
2
emission by sectors
Power generation (%) 38 54 53 51 59 59 2.101 1.099
Industry (%) 26 19 21 15 11 10 1.726 0.003
Commerce (%) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0.688 1.269
Residence (%) 15 11 10 13 11 12 2.537 0.590
Transport (%) 14 9 11 15 15 15 3.169 0.839
Others (%)
a
5 5 5 5 4 4 1.963 0.494
Total (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 2.205 0.831
Total (Mt) 581 981 2022 2918 4029 4414 2.205 0.831
Indicator (unit)
CO
2
/capita (ton/capita) 0.684 0.965 1.428 1.810 2.355 2.553 1.266 0.690
CO
2
/GDP (kg/h(00)) 0.385 0.382 0.223 0.169 0.152 0.127 1.620 0.570
a
Others include synthetic fuel production, renery sector, and non-energy use.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5655
from the unsystematic lining of the transmission and distribution
feeders accompanied by high ohmic loss (i.e., loss due to con-
ductors resistance (i
2
r)). This investment deciency (lack of cold
reserve) compels over-utilization of the installed capacity of the
regional energy system (reduces hot spinning reserve) and back
up (i.e., cold reserve and energy storage devices). Overall, 80% of
the country has been electried and about 85% of the villages
have been electried except in the far-ung areas in North
Eastern states, where it is difcult to extend the centralized grid
supply (MOP, 2006).
Electricity access has risen from 42% in 1991 to 62% in 2005
(WEO, 2007). Hence, people with no electricity access of 499
million in 1991 has declined to 412 million in 2005, but on the
contrary dependency on traditional fuel for cooking and heating
has risen from 580 million people to 668 million for the same
period (WEO, 2007; IEA/India, 2002). India accounts for a third
(high density) of the global population without the access to
electricity and 40% of those without access to modern energy
services (Bhattacharyya, 2006; WEHAB, 2002). Around 84% of its
people rely on traditional fuels for household cooking whereas in
urban areas this gure is only 22%. Urban peoples access to
electricity of 90% is higher compared to 50% of the rural people
(WEO, 2007). The grouping of state governments power sector
(i.e., power generation, transmission, and distribution) in a
vertically integrated fashion has been proved ineffective and
inefcient because of which this sector has had to open the door
to deregulation to resolve the elementary problem of investment
by resorting to private investors (Filippini and Pachauri, 2004).
Total nal energy and sector-wise energy development
Indias total nal consumption of energy is about 3% of the
worlds total and is the sixth largest. It was around 285 Mtoe in
1990, 335 Mtoe in 1995, and 355 Mtoe in 2000 that are depicted
in Fig. 3 (WEO, 2004). In total nal energy consumption electri-
city, oil, natural gas, and renewable increased its market shares
from 1990 to 2000, whereas share of coal fell. Between the years
1990 and 2000, consumption of various sectors varied such as the
aggregate of sector-wise nal energy use from 285 to 355 Mtoe,
the industry sector from 70 to 92 Mtoe, the commerce sector from
9 to 10 Mtoe, the residential sector from 174 to 211 Mtoe, the
transport sector from 26 to 31 Mtoe, and the non-energy use
sector from 6 to 11 Mtoe (WEO, 2002, 2004). The nal energy
demand of all sectors increased but the higher growth rate was in
the residential and transport sectors.
The highest percentage share of the total nal energy demand
compared to other sectors was of the household sector because of
the use of inefcient technologies and low caloric fuels such as
agro-based residues, dung, biomass, etc. (Reddy, 2003; Pachauri
and Spreng, 2002). Further, progressive disintegration of the
cluster household system brought about by growth of the econ-
omy and resultant increase in employment has led to higher
energy demands (Pachauri and Spreng, 2002). More than 70% of
Indians reside in rural society, as they depend heavily upon
agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. For more
than 66% of these rural households, the main source of energy is
rewood (Pachauri and Spreng, 2002). According to various
sources, 94.5% of rural households and 58.1% of urban households
in India depend on non-commercial types of fuels, prominently
on rewood and partially on agro-residues, crop-residues, and
cattle dung (ABE, 1985; Reddy, 1982; Ravindranath et al., 1989).
The aggregate of both commercial and traditional energy use per
capita in 199394 was half of the gure of 10 GJ/capita proposed
by Goldemberg et al. (1988) needed to lead a modest living
standard in warm climate regions.
Reserves and resources, and emissions
India has huge potential of fuel reserves and resources,
particularly coal and thorium. Indias energy reserves and
resources add up to 139.79 Gtoe of hard coal, 21.65 Gtoe of
lignite, 5.67 Gtoe of natural gas, and 1.72 Gtoe of crude oil
(SAUNER, 2000). Coal resources reached 257.38 billion tonnes
(MOC (Ministry of Coal), 2008). There is a large potential for
renewable energy in India. The estimated aggregated potential of
these energy resources exceeds 130 GW including both power
generation and thermal applications (MNES (Ministry of Non-
Conventional Energy Resources), 2006). The nation is blessed with
huge renewable energy sources such 5 EWh/year of solar, 45 GW
of wind, 55 GW of biomass power generation, primary resources
of 198 Mtoe (MNES, 2002; ET (earth trends), 2003), 15 GW of
small hydro (o25 MW), 5 GW of tidal power, 10 GW of geother-
mal, and 2.7 GW from waste (MNES, 2004,2006). Solar potential
too is very high, because India is exposed to high intensity
Fig. 2. Power generation capacity by fuel.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5656
sunlight and for long durations in the year (i.e., in the range of
2000 hrs).
India is currently the fth largest carbon emitter in the world
(behind the United States, China, Russia, and Japan) and accounts
about 4.2% of the worlds total fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide
emissions (IEA/India, 2002). Carbon dioxide emission has risen by
about 60% in past decade owing to high usage of coal in power
generation, and is about nine times higher than it was forty
years ago.
Primary energy, import, and export
Biomass, coal, oil, and natural gas are the main sources of
primary energy. Of these, non-commercial biomass energy prevails
over the others. In commercial energy, coal takes the leading share
followed by oil and natural gas. In India, biomass is basically the
fuel of the household sector in rural areas because, around 7080%
of the total population resides in the rural areas of which 3540% is
below the poverty line unable to afford commercial energy
(Dzioubinski and Chipman, 1999a, b; WEC, 2005). The change in
the pattern of energy supply and consumption over the past several
years has resulted in increase in commercial primary energy
demand from 177 Mtoe in the year 1990 to 293 Mtoe in the year
2000 with its share in the total energy rising from 50% in 1990 to
60% in 2000 (WEO, 2004). Indias total primary energy demand has
surged from 352 Mtoe in 1990 to 500 Mtoe in 2000 (WEO, 2002).
India is a net importer of energy, as the production of primary
energy always lags the consumption. As its coking coal reserves
are small (around 5% in total), India imports around 25% of its
coking coal needs from Australia and New Zealand (MOC, 2005).
DOE/SERD (1995) states that nearly 30% total energy need of India
is met by oil, and more than 60% of its total oil consumption is
imported. At present, India imports 396 MW of hydropower from
Bhutan through 220 kV D/C transmission lines (MOP 2004).
Further, India exchanges power with Nepal at the border to the
tune of 50 MW through 11/33/132 kV transmission lines in radial
mode. In future, India may increase its power imports from Nepal
and Bangladesh (Nath, 2001).
Indias average oil production level in 1998 was around
661 kbbl/day and imported around 1000 kbbl/day in the same
year of its total oil consumption. Further, the countrys oil
consumption is expected to grow rapidly to 3.1 Mbbl/day by
2010 (Suganthi and Williams, 2000). India is a net importer of
crude oil; 70% of this total crude requirement is imported from
oil-rich countries (Ghosh, 2006). The import bill of the Indian
energy system places enormous demands for foreign currency
and pushes the Balance Of Payment (BOP) into decit while also
increasing ination and slowing down economic growth. Indias
renery capacity is around 117 million metric tonnes per annum
(MMTPA) (Ghosh, 2006) and over-utilizes (around 130% for more
throughput) its reneries due to lack of investment funds (MOPN
(Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas), 2008).
TIMES optimization methodology and tools assisted
TIMES is a linear cost optimization model for energy systems
(i.e., providing the cheapest energy services), is based on partial
equilibrium theory, is predictive and modular. It minimizes the
sum of the year-wise net present value (NPV) of annual costs
minus revenues for the whole model horizon (see Eq. (1)) (Sim~ oes
et al., 2008). Annual costs correspond to investment costs, costs
for sunk materials utilized in construction, variable costs, xed
operating and maintenance costs, surveillance costs, decommis-
sioning costs cost of import, and taxes are considered, but the
revenues denote subsidies, recuperation of sunk materials, cost of
export, and salvage values.
NPV
X
R
r 1
X
yAYEARS
1d
r,y

REFYRy
ANNCOSTr,y 1
where NPV is the net present value of the total system cost;
ANNCOST is the total annual cost; d is the general discount rate; r
stands for regions; y present the years; REFYR is the reference year
for discounting; and YEARS stands for the set of years for which
the cost is incurred (Loulou et al., 2005).
3
TIMES is a model generator based on the GAMS language and
transforms the coded RES into mathematical equations of objec-
tive function, constraints, parameters, and variables that are fed
Fig. 3. Evolution of total nal energy consumption by fuel.
3
Presents the set of years (modeling periodspast yearsyears after the end
of horizon) for which the cost has been procured. If past years (i.e., before the
initial period) is associated with any cost, i.e., especially past investment. Years
after the end of horizon (EOH), where some investment and dismantling costs are
still being incurred, as well as the salvage value extend beyond the EOH.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5657
into the optimization server (i.e., cplex, minos, etc.) for optimiza-
tion. Further, TIMES is compatible with the MIP approach of
continuous and block-wise discrete variables. The linear equa-
tions of the objective function and constraints with continuous
variables are presented in Eqs. (2)(4).
Objective function
X
n
i 1
c
i
x
i
2
Constraints
X
n
i 1
a
ij
x
i
Zb
j
,j 1:::m 3
Variables
x
i
Z0,i 1:::n 4
where i is the constraint index running from 1 to n, j is the
variable constraint ranging from 1 to m, x
i
is the decision variable,
c
i
is the cost coefcient of decision variables, a
j,i
is the coefcient
of decision variable, and b
j
is the right hand side (RHS) constant of
the constraint.
TIMES interfacing, database development, coding and decod-
ing of mathematical equations, routing by convergence for
obtaining the optimal solution from the provided information,
and data analysis are all conducted by extensive use of prospec-
tive tools such as cplex, VErsatile Data Analyst (VEDA), answer-
TIMES, and the general algebraic modeling system (GAMS).
Data assumptions in the model development
For the development of an energy system model, enormous
amount of data are required. These data range from the extraction
sector to motive power derivation in the modeling phenomenon
(i.e., technology cost, fuel cost, emission amount, extraction
amount, etc.) and the related costs. Consideration of the data on
reserves and resources
4
of fossil fuels and their modeling of costs
and step-wise extraction are provided in Table 5. Resources are
categorized by (a) identied
5
(that is termed as reserve), i.e.,
consists of demonstrated (measuredindicated) and inferred
6
;
and (b) undiscovered
7
. The resource and reserve potential of
different energy carriers differs according to different sources
because the method of calculation, assumptions, and aggregation
of fuel carriers are different between various researchers. Further,
consideration of conventional and unconventional sources
varies among the researchers (i.e., due to different calculation
methods developed and concepts followed). Conventional sources
of crude oil resources and reserves include crude oil and natural
gas liquid (NGL), and non-unconventional source include oil
shale, tar sand, extra heavy oil, and natural bitumen (oil sand);
conventional sources of natural gas consist of natural gas and
natural gas liquid, and unconventional sources are coal bed
methane, light gas, deep gas, gas hydrate, gas-containing shale,
coal-bed methane (coal gas), and aquifer gas; hard coal consists of
anthracite, coke, and bituminous coals; and lignite consists of
brown coal and peat. Of the projected values of resource and
reserve in many sources, the highest values projected by
SAUNER (2000) were considered because this being a long-term
study continuous scientic knowledge improvement and technol-
ogy development over a period of time might result in discovery
of additional resources in future. In context of continuous
increases in fuel prices unconventional resources may become
economically recoverable reserves in the future (Rout et al.,
2008). Rogners (1997) default cost-potential curve assists in
projection of step-wise costs and potential of fossil fuels namely
coal, lignite, crude oil, and natural gas (see Table 5). Techno-
economic values of some technologies for power generation
sector are presented in Rout (2007), and inter-regional trading
costs of some fuels in Table 6. More details on model develop-
ment and data assumptions are provided in Tables 79, Rout
(2007), and Rout et al. (2009a, b).
Formulae used to cross-check and adjust the growth rates of the
calculated useful energy demand from 1990 to 2100 of residential
sector
a. Heating/hot water energyFloor area per capita
8
(heat energy/
m
2
/year
9
) (rural population and urban population)average
hot water requirement per capita per year total population
b. Cooling energyRating of the device utilization rate (i.e.,
hours/day/capita
10
) (365 day/year) (rural population and
urban population) (see Table 9).
c.
Table 5
Step-wise extraction cost of fossil fuels and their corresponding resource and reserve amounts.
Source: SAUNER (2000), Rogner (1997), Adelman (1993), Rogner (1990), and Deluca (1998).
Fuel Parameter (unit) Step-1 Step-2 Step-3 Step-4
Coal Reserve and resource (PJ) 2917524 517985 1553955 863308
Extraction cost (h(00)/TJ) 205 461 553 676
Lignite Reserve and resource (PJ) 322342 117030 300194 166774
Extraction cost (h(00)/TJ) 205 461 553 676
Natural gas Reserve and resource (PJ) 9468 80515 79271 67946
Extraction cost (h(00)/TJ) 297 1055 1732 2480
Crude oil Reserve and resource (PJ) 33144 24702 13619 579
Extraction cost (h(00)/TJ) 113 348 707 1506
4
Resources are dened as concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid,
and gaseous materials in the Earths crust in such a form that the economic
extraction is potentially feasible (BMUSGS (Bureau of Mines and U.S. Geological
Survey), 1980). From the geological point of view, a resource is categorized into
identied and undiscovered.
5
Identied resources are those whose location, grade, quality, and quantity
are already known or can be estimated in a specic geological condition. With
varying degrees of geological uncertainty, identied resources can be divided into
demonstrated (measuredindicated) and inferred.
6
Inferred resources are based on an assumed quantity beyond measured and/
or indicated resources, for which there is geological evidence.
7
Undiscovered resources are quantities believed to exist under analogous
geological conditions with different degrees of probability.
8
Average oor area is considered for the rural and urban households.
9
Same insulation level for rural and urban household is assumed.
10
Average value of utilization for the rural and urban household is considered.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5658
Table 6
Inter-regional transport cost of fuels.
Source: SAUNER (2000) and OPEC (2004).
Region EU25 R_OECD R_NOECD China
City/port Rostock New York Santosh Shanghai
Transportation cost of crude oil (h(00)/PJ)
India Mumbai 293419 539351 621674 227452
Transportation cost of natural gas (h(00)/PJ)
India Mumbai 2489611 4576299 5274801 1929889
Transportation cost of coal (h(00)/PJ)
India Mumbai 203530 374120 431224 157772
Transportation cost of petroleum products (h(00)/PJ)
India Mumbai 481207 884535 1019546 373021
Transportation cost of LNG (h(00)/PJ)
India Mumbai 1659741 3050866 3516534 1286593
Transportation cost of electricity (h(00)/GW)
India Mumbai 519520000 954960000 1100720000 402720000
Note: The ve regional TIMES G5 model is based on the point presentation energy system model rather than those that are GIS based or multi-point based. In this type of
system modeling, the trading center of regions play an inuential role in the model solution as the transport cost of the energy carriers bear a marginal share in the
levelised fuel cost development and inuence the inter-regional trading amounts. The trading center of regions play an important role in energy system model and each
region has its trading center as characterized as city/port in this table. In case of aggregated regions (i.e., region with more number of nations from different part of world),
the trading centers are considered by experts judgment of IER. Regional acronyms are as follows: 25 European nations (EU25), Rest of Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (R_OECD), and Rest of Non-OECD (R_NOECD).
Table 7
Residual capacity of power plant (GW).
Fuel based technology 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal 45.72 45.72 43.83 42.83 37.65 30.93 19.30 2.71 2.71
Oil 2.31 2.31 2.12 0.38 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Natural gas 2.17 2.17 2.14 1.43 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00
Nuclear 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.02 1.02 0.56 0.09 0.09
Hydro 18.40 18.40 17.55 17.55 16.65 15.00 13.50 10.87 7.02
Wind 0.53 0.53 0.47 0.19 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00
Solar PV 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Geothermal 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Note: Residual capacity is developed for all types of the fuels till the year 2030. The coal (i.e., hard coal and lignite) based power plant includes condensing turbines; natural
gas includes gas turbine and steam turbine; oil includes steam turbine and internal combustion (i.e., diesel generator set); hydropower includes dam storage hydropower
plant and running river type (i.e., small, micro and macro turbines). Hydro residual capacity goes beyond 2030 whereas other plants nish in 2030.
Table 8
Minimum renewable electricity production by fuel (PJ).
Year Biomass Biogas Waste Small hydro Wind onshore Wind offshore Geoth. Solar PV
2005 12.64 0.97 1.94 68.04 12.64 0 0 0.97
2010 18.32 1.28 2.54 90.19 18.68 1.41 0 1.98
2015 23.12 1.44 2.90 104.10 23.98 3.42 0 3.16
2020 27.77 1.57 3.13 114.37 29.26 5.89 0 4.51
2025 33.29 1.69 3.39 125.22 35.54 9.02 0 6.19
2030 38.62 1.77 3.51 132.70 41.75 12.57 0 8.05
2035 45.69 1.85 3.73 143.21 49.99 17.20 0 10.45
2040 53.48 1.93 3.87 152.70 59.13 22.63 0 13.26
2045 62.99 2.02 4.05 163.47 70.36 29.39 0 16.72
2050 74.08 2.10 4.16 174.29 83.52 37.55 0 20.86
2055 86.26 2.10 4.24 183.28 97.96 47.01 0 25.63
2061 104.24 2.13 4.26 195.18 119.56 61.23 0 32.77
2070 121.45 1.83 3.61 185.35 141.03 78.33 0 41.00
2080 138.43 1.29 2.59 163.74 162.76 97.27 0 49.96
2090 149.38 0.69 1.32 130.82 177.51 112.57 0 56.95
2100 158.38 0 0 95.03 190.06 126.70 0 63.35
Note: The minimum renewable electricity is calculated based on certain market share (between 1%-4%) by period on the total electricity generation of India from the year
1990 to 2100. The market share of each renewable fuel in total renewable electricity is considered from the previous studies and in some cases, it is assumed. E.g., from
2005 to 2100, biomass renewable electricity changes from 13% to 25%; wind power 13% to 50%; solar 1% to 10%; geothermal has zero share; biogas and waste from 3% to
0%; and rest share is allocated to small hydro. The values are taken from Central Electricity Authority of India, Ministry of Power, India, International Energy Agency, France,
and some places considered from experts judgments.
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5659
Table 9
Assumptions on rural and urban demographic development of India.
Source: India census, Rajesh et al. (2003), Shukla et al. (2001, 2002), IEO (2004), and UN, 2003.
Parameter Unit Time period
1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Total population Million 850 1016 1416 1612 1711 1729
Urban population
a
Fraction of total population 0.257 0.286 0.383 0.446 0.492 0.52
a
Urban population development between intermediate periods is developed by interpolation.
Table 10
Residential sector useful energy indicators.
Residential useful energy indicators
Year 1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Cooking
Rating of device kW 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Hours/day/capita hours/day/capita 0.72 0.90 1.21 1.87 2.13 2.22
Total energy/a PJ/a 803.71 1204.15 2382.46 4070.85 4758.17 5058.18
Indicator GJ/capita/a 0.95 1.19 1.59 2.46 2.80 2.92
Cooling
Rating of device kW 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Hours/day/capita hours/day/capita 0.02 0.28 0.84 1.43 1.76 2.02
Total energy/a PJ/a 22.33 373.78 1651.89 3109.34 3933.48 4594.21
Indicator GJ/capita/a 0.03 0.37 1.10 1.88 2.31 2.65
Other electric
Devices/person Fan 0.05 0.16 0.31 0.56 0.59 0.60
Rating Fan 90.00 85.77 73.10 64.65 60.00 60.00
Operating hours/day Fan 4.50 4.66 5.13 5.45 5.63 5.63
Devices/person TV 0.01 0.06 0.14 0.25 0.30 0.30
Rating TV 135.00 129.37 112.46 101.20 95.00 95.00
Operating hours/day TV 2.01 1.98 1.89 1.83 1.80 1.80
Devices/person OTGs 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.14 0.17 0.17
Rating OTGs 800.00 771.83 687.32 630.99 600.00 600.00
Operating hours/day OTGs 0.00 0.06 0.16 0.29 0.33 0.34
Devices/person Electric kettle 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04
Rating Electric kettle 2000.00 1923.08 1692.31 1538.46 1500.00 1500.00
Operating hours/day Electric kettle 0.35 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.45 0.45
Devices/person Vacuum cleaner 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Vacuum cleaner 800.00 757.75 630.99 546.48 500.00 500.00
Operating hours/day Vacuum cleaner 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.13 0.15 0.15
Devices/person Electric iron 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Electric iron 1200.00 1152.11 1008.45 912.68 860.00 860.00
Operating hours/day Electric iron 0.15 0.18 0.26 0.32 0.35 0.35
Devices/person Refrigerator 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.17 0.20 0.21
Rating Refrigerator 350.00 328.87 265.49 223.24 200.00 200.00
Operating hours/day Refrigerator 5.50 5.71 6.35 6.77 7.00 7.00
Devices/person Washing machine 0.01 0.08 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Washing machine 500.00 482.39 429.58 394.37 375.00 375.00
Operating hours/day Washing machine 0.15 0.16 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.25
Devices/person Dish washer 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04
Rating Dish washer 1300.00 1257.75 1130.99 1046.48 1000.00 1000.00
Operating hours/day Dish washer 0.00 0.14 0.35 0.64 0.74 0.75
Devices/person Computer 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
Rating Computer 200.00 194.37 177.46 166.20 160.00 160.00
Operating hours/day Computer 1.60 1.80 2.36 3.21 3.33 3.37
Devices/person Laptop 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Rating Laptop 70.00 67.18 58.73 53.10 50.00 50.00
Operating hours/day Laptop 1.60 1.80 2.53 3.53 3.70 3.75
Devices/person Radio 0.06 0.18 0.33 0.58 0.67 0.67
Rating Radio 15.00 14.15 11.62 9.93 9.00 9.00
Operating hours/day Radio 2.00 1.94 1.77 1.66 1.60 1.60
Devices/person Micro-oven 0.00 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.15 0.15
Rating Micro-oven 1200.00 1169.01 1076.06 1014.08 980.00 980.00
Operating hours/day Micro-oven 0.33 0.36 0.45 0.52 0.55 0.55
Devices/person Lighting devices 0.70 1.11 1.19 1.80 1.95 1.97
Rating Lighting devices 60.00 57.18 48.73 43.10 40.00 40.00
Operating hours/day Lighting devices 0.40 0.73 1.35 1.79 2.03 2.03
Devices/person VCR/DVD player 0.01 0.07 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating VCR/DVD player 60.00 57.18 48.73 43.10 40.00 40.00
Operating hours/day VCR/DVD player 1.00 1.04 1.17 1.25 1.30 1.30
Devices/person Record player 0.00 0.07 0.17 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Record player 40.00 37.89 31.55 27.32 25.00 25.00
U.K. Rout / Energy Policy 39 (2011) 56475663 5660
Cooking energyRating of the device utilization rate (i.e.,
hours/day/capita
9
) (365 day/year) (rural population and
urban population)
d. Other electric energy(
11
Device/person) rating of the devi-
ce operating hours per day
9
(365 day/year)(rural popula-
tion and urban population)
(Note: The growth rate of the useful energy demand develop-
ment in the residential sector is adjusted by cross-comparison
with the end-use demand calculation method for the useful
energy (see Table 10). Generally possession values (i.e., device/
person or household) and utilization rates of the possessions are
different between rural and urban households, but the cross-
checking is done on the development values of whole population
(urban and rural) of the nation.
References
ABE, 1985. Government of India: Towards a Perspective on Energy Demand and
Supply in India in 2004/2005. Advisory Board on Energy (ABE). Government of
India Press, Nasik, India.
Adelman, M.A., 1993. Modelling world oil supply. The Economics of Petroleum
Supply. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Akay, D., Atak, M., 2007. Grey prediction with rolling mechanisms for electricity
demand forecasting of Turkey. Energy 32, 16701675.
Akimoto, K., Sano, F., Oda, J., Homma, T., Rout, U.K., Tomoda, T., 2008. Global
emission reductions through a sectoral intensity target scheme. Climate Policy
8, S46S59.
Ang, B.W., Liu, N., 2006. A cross-country analysis of aggregate energy and carbon
intensities. Energy Policy 34, 23982404.
Armstrong, J.S., 1980. The seersucker theory: the value of experts in forecasting.
Technology Review, 1624 June/July.
Balakrishnan, K., Mehta, S., Kumar, P., Ramaswamy, P., Sambandam, S., Kumar, K.S.,
Smith, K.R., 2004. Indoor Air Pollution Associated with Household Fuel Use in
India An Exposure Assessment and Modeling Exercise in Rural Districts of
Andhra Pradesh, India. The World Bank, ESMAP, June.
Bhattacharyya, S.C., 2006. Energy access problem of the poor in India: is rural
electrication a remedy. Energy Policy 34, 33873397.
BMUSGS (Bureau of Mines and U.S. Geological Survey), 1980. Principles of a Resource/
Reserve Classication for Minerals. U.S., Geological Survey Circular 831.
Table 10 (continued )
Residential useful energy indicators
Year 1990 2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
Operating hours/day Record player 1.00 1.04 1.17 1.25 1.30 1.30
Devices/Person Coffee machine 0.01 0.08 0.18 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Coffee machine 800.00 771.83 687.32 630.99 600.00 600.00
Operating hours/day Coffee machine 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04
Devices/Person Tape player 0.01 0.08 0.18 0.32 0.37 0.37
Rating Tape player 40.00 37.89 31.55 27.32 25.00 25.00
Operating hours/day Tape player 1.00 1.14 1.56 1.85 2.00 2.00
Devices/person Mixer 0.01 0.06 0.12 0.22 0.26 0.26
Rating Mixer 800.00 771.83 687.32 630.99 600.00 600.00
Operating hours/day Mixer 0.30 0.32 0.38 0.43 0.45 0.45
Devices/person Toaster 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03
Rating Toaster 800.00 771.83 687.32 630.99 600.00 600.00
Operating hours/day Toaster 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20
Total energy Fan 22.67 83.69 229.6 427.4 446.4 460.4
Total energy TV 2.51 20.93 58.4 102.8 113.1 116.6
Total energy OTGs 0.00 1.56 20.1 56.4 75.9 78.3
Total energy Electric kettle 0.00 7.22 25.8 51.4 55.8 57.6
Total energy Vacuum cleaner 0.00 1.50 18.1 47.9 62.0 63.9
Total energy Electric iron 0.20 19.54 90.0 201.3 248.8 256.6
Total energy Refrigerator 8.90 16.01 314.4 574.3 636.6 656.5
Total energy Washing machine 0.52 8.00 30.4 64.1 77.5 79.9
Total energy Dish washer 0.00 1.32 17.3 48.9 66.1 68.2
Total energy Computer 1.02 2.43 10.3 20.1 23.8 24.6
Total energy Laptop 0.07 0.31 1.7 3.5 4.1 4.3
Total energy Radio 1.98 6.52 13.2 20.8 21.4 22.1
Total energy Micro-oven 1.01 16.96 66.9 145.0 178.2 183.8
Total energy Lighting devices 19.02 62.01 154.3 301.5 353.8 364.9
Total energy VCR/DVD player 0.33 5.94 19.5 37.4 43.0 44.3
Total energy Record player 0.09 3.80 12.6 23.7 26.9 27.7
Total energy Coffee machine 0.17 1.77 7.3 16.1 19.8 20.5
Total energy Tape player 0.45 4.56 17.0 35.0 41.3 42.6
Total energy Mixer 1.88 18.30 63.7 130.8 156.3 161.1
Total energy Toaster 0.01 1.22 4.3 8.6 9.1 9.4
All total energy PJ 60.8 283.6 1174.8 2316.7 2660.1 2743.4
Indicator GJ/capita/a 0.07 0.28 0.79 1.40 1.56 1.59
Heating
Space/capita m2/capita 18.00 18.00 21.40 23.20 24.10 25.00
Heat/m2/a kWh/m2 10.22 10.45 20.20 20.89 21.32 21.35
Hot water/capita/a GJ/capita/a 0.16 0.20 0.42 0.46 0.46 0.46
Total heat/capita/a PJ/a 562.60 688.00 2329.13 2887.22 3145.78 3326.15
Indicator GJ/capita/a 0.82 0.88 1.97 2.20 2.31 2.38
Space/capita m2/capita 18.00 18.00 21.40 23.20 24.10 25.00
Heat/m2/a kWh/m2 10.22 10.45 20.20 20.89 21.32 21.35
Hot water/capita/a GJ/capita/a 0.16 0.20 0.42 0.46 0.46 0.46
Note: Only two digits after the decimal point are provided. The above table gives a rough estimation to cross-compare and to realize the household electric indicator
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11
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