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International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Information Security, September 2014 Vol. 5, No. 6 ISSN: 1837-7823

STOCHASTIC BEHAVIOR OF A COMPOUND REDUNDANT ROLLING SYSTEM

1 Deepankar Sharma, 2 Jitendra Kumar Rana

1 Director, D.J. College of Engg. & Tech., Modinagar, Ghaziabad, India.

2 Research Scholar, Dept. of Mathematics, NAS (P.G.) College, Meerut.

ABSTRACT In hot rolling, heated metal is passed between two rolls (taken as subsystem A and B) that rotate in opposite directions. The gap between the rolls being somewhat less than the thickness of entering metal because the rolls rotate with a surface velocity that exceeds the speed of the incoming metal, friction along the contact interface acts to propel the metal forward. The metal is squeezed and elongates to compensate for the decreased in cross- sectional area. The amount of deformation that can be achieve in a single pass between a given pair of rolls depends on the friction conditions along the interface, In too much is demanded, the rolls can not advance the material and simply skid over its surface. Too little deformation per pass, however, results in excessive production cost. In this paper, two rolls i.e. upper roll and lower roll are depicted as subsystem A and B, and

), connected in

21 . To utilize survival

subsystem in

series respectively. The system has switching devices

further categorized as main system (

A , B

1

1

) and its standby redundant (

E

12

and

E

A

2

, B

2

B i (i = 1,2) a switching device E connecting main and standby system

is being used in addition and the system is called a compound redundant system. Here “compound” word means to have switching devices in order to achieve higher system’s reliability. Supplementary variables technique has been used to formulate mathematical model of the system. For the system presented here, Laplace transforms of the system reliability, availability, M.T.T.F. and steady-state behavior of the system are being derived. A numerical illustration to detect the effects of the compound system to the usual standby is examined. Key Words: Reliability analysis, availability analysis, mean time to failure, Laplace transform, supplementary variables, redundancy etc.

A

i

and

10

1. INTRODUCTION In modern industries, systems are designed to be operative for a specified period (called the mission time), i.e. there should be no failure in any equipment or part of equipment under specified operating conditions during the total period (operative time, administrative time and repair time). Behaviour analysis of each item of equipment under given operating conditions is helpful to design the component for minimum failure and to prepare a plan in advance to scheduled preventive maintenance. Although the basic concepts of many forming processes have remained largely unchanged throughout history, the details and equipment have evolved considerably. Manual processes were converted to machine processes during the industrial revolution. The machinery then became bigger, faster and more powerful. Water wheel power was replaced by steam and then electricity. More recently, computer controlled, automated operations have immerged. Processes that are normally performed “hot”, is presented in this paper. An obvious reason for the popularity of the hot-working processes is that they often provide an attractive means of producing a desired shape. At elevated temperature, metals weaken and become more ductile. With continual re-crystallization, massive deformation can take place without exhausting material plasticity. In steels, hot forming involves the deformation of weaker, austenite structure, which then cools to the stronger, room-temperature, ferrite or much stronger non-equilibrium structures. Among the hot-working processes viz, rolling, forging, extrusion, hot drawing, pipe welding and piercing, rolling is of major importance in modern manufacturing. Rolling is usually the first process that is used to convert material into a finished wrought product. Thick starting stock can be rolled into blooms, billets or slabs or these shapes can be obtained directly from continuous casting. A bloom has square or rectangular cross section, with a thickness greater than 6 inches and a width no greater than twice the thickness. A billet is usually smaller than a bloom and has a square or circular cross section. Same form of deformation process, such as rolling or extrusion, usually produces billets. A slab is a rectangular solid where the width is greater than twice the thickness. Slabs can be further rolled to produce plate, sheet and strip. These hot-worked products often form the starting material for subsequent processing using techniques such as cold forming or machinery. Sheet and strip can be fabricated into products or further cold rolled into thinner, stronger material or even into foil. Blooms are billets and can be further rolled into finished product such as structural shapes or railroad into finished product, such as structural shapes or railroad rail or they can be processed into semi-finished shapes, such as bar, rod, tube or pipe. Fig-1(a) shows the logical block diagram of considered system and fig-1(b) represents the state-transition diagram.

2. ASSUMPTIONS USED DURING THIS STUDY

1. The system consists of two main units A , B and two standby units A ,B

1

1

2

2

connected in series, respectively.

2. Repairs are perfect, i.e. repair facility never does any damage to the units.

3. The unit recovers its functioning perfectly after repair.

4.

5. None of the standby units degrade in unused condition.

6. The system ceases to function when both the units of any subsystem are non- operative.

11

At t = 0 ,

A

1

and

B

1

start operating while

A

2

and

B

2

are kept as standby.

7. Units are non-identical and statistically independent.

8. The system has two modes of states, viz; normal and failed.

9. Switching devices used are imperfect.

10. All failures are exponentially distributed.

11. All repairs are distributed quite arbitrarily.

12. Switching rates are exponential.

3. LIST OF NOTATIONS USED

λ ,λ

1

2

β

1

, β

2

α,α ,α

12

21

:

:

:

Failure rates of Failure rates of

Switching rates of devices

B

1

1

, B

, B

A

1

2

units respectively.

units respectively.

E, E

12

and

E

21

respectively.

µ ( j)∆ ik : First order probability that i units of subsystem k can
µ
( j)∆
ik
: First order probability that i units of subsystem k can be repaired
in the time interval ( j, j + ∆) , conditioned that it was not repaired
up to time j .
P
(
t
)
etc.
:
Probability that system is operable at time t while its
A and B
A B
1
1
1
1
units are working.
P
(
x t
,
)∆
etc.
:
Probability that system is failed at time t due to failure of
FB
1
subsystem A while unit
B 1 is working.
P
(
m , t
)∆
etc.
:
Probability that system is failed at time t due to failure of
A
F
2
subsystem B while unit
A
is working.
2
S (x)
:
{
µ (
x ) exp −
i
µ
( x ) dx}
,
i
i
i
S (s)
: Laplace transform (L.T.) of S
x
)
,∀
i
i (
i
D (s)
:
[1-S
i (s)]/ s
i
M.T.T.F.
:
Mean time to failure.
A
B
1
1
OUTPUT
E
E
E
21
12
A
B
2
2

Fig-1(a): Logical Block Diagram

12

µ ( 2 A λα λ 1 21 2 P ( ) t P (
µ
(
2 A
λα
λ
1
21
2
P
( )
t
P
( )
t
P
(
x t
,
)
A B
A B
1
1
2
1
FB
1
βα
βα 1
1
12
λα
λ
1
2
P
( t )
P
( )
t
P
(
z ,
t
)
A B
A B
1
2
2
2
FB
2
µ
(
z
)
1 A
µ
( m )
1
B
β
β
2
2
P
(
y ,
t
)
P
(
m , t
)
A F
A
F
1
2
( y )
µ 2 B

x )

Fig-1(b): State-transition diagram

4. FORMULATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODEL By elementary probability consideration and limiting procedure, we obtain the following set of difference-differential equations which are continuous in time, discrete in space and governing the behavior of considered system:

 +

d

dt

λ α

1

21

+

β α

1

12

P

A B

1

1

( t )

=

0

P

FB

1

  λ βα

 +

 ∂

  ∂ x

+

d

dt

d

dt

  ∂

  ∂ y

+

2

+

P

A

2

P

B 1

( t

)

=λα

1

21

=βα

1

21

x t

,

)

=

0

y , t

)

=

0

1

+

λα β

1

+

2

t

t

+

+

µ 2 A

µ

2 B

(

(

x

y

)

)

A B

1

2

( )

t

P

FB

1

P

A F

1

(

(

P

A B

1

1

P

A B

1

1

(

x t

,

( t )

( )

t

)

µ

2 A

( x dx

)

+

0

P

A F

1

(

y

,

t )

µ

2

B

(

y

) dy

…(1)

 

…(2)

…(3)

…(4)

…(5)

13

  d

dt

+

λ β

2

+

2

P

A B

2

2

( )

t

=

λα

1

P

A B

1

2

( )

t

+

0

P

FB

2

(

z t

,

)

µ

1

A

(

z dz

)

 ∂

  ∂ m

 ∂

z

t

+

+

t

+

+

µ 1 B

µ

1 A

P

(

m

(

z

)

)

A F

2

P

FB

2

(

m t

,

(

z , t

)

)

=

=

0

0

Boundary Conditions are:

P

FB

1

P

A

1

F

P

A

2

F

P

FB

2

(0,

(0,

t

t

)

)

(0, t

(0, t

)

)

= λ

2

P

A B

2

1

= β

2

P

A B

1

2

( )

t

( )

t

= β

2

= λ

2

P

A B

2

P

A

2

B

(
2

(
2

t )

t )

Initial Conditions are:

+

0

P

A F

2

(

m t

,

)

µ

1

B

(

m dm

)

P

A B

1

1

(0) = 1

and probability of all other states are zero at t=0

…(6)

…(7)

…(8)

…(9)

…(10)

…(11)

…(12)

…(13)

5. SOLUTION OF THE MODEL Taking Laplace transforms of equations (1) through (12) subjected to initial conditions (13) and then on solving them one by one, we obtain the following Laplace transforms of various states, depicted in fig-1(b), probabilities:

and

where,

and

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

P

A

1

B

1

(

s

) =

1

B

(

s

)

A

2

B

1

A

1

B

FB

1

2

(

λα

1

21

(

s

+

λ βα

βα

2

+

1

)

B ( s

)

1

12

(

s ) =

s

)

=

(

s

+

λα β

1

+

2

λλα

1

2

21

D

2 A

)

(

B ( s

s

)

)

(

B s )(

s +

λ βα

2

+

1

)

(

s

) =

ββα

12

D

2 B

(

s

)

A

1

F

( s )

=

A

2

B

2

(

s

) =

A

2

F

FB

2

(

(

s

s

) =

) =

1

2

B (

)(

s

A ( s ) B s

(

(

)

s +

λα β

1

+

2

1 B

(

s

)

β

2

A

s ) D

)

λ

2

A

(

B

s ) D

(

s )

1 A

( s )

B

(

s

)

(

A s

(

B s

) =

λ β αα

1

1

12

s s

(

+

λα β

1

+

2

)[1

+

λ

2

D

1

A

(

s

)

+

β

2

D

1

B

(

s

)]

)

= s +

λα βα

1

21

+

1

12

λλα

1

2

21

S

2 A

(

s

)

s +

λ βα

2

+

1

ββα

1

2

12

S

2 B

(

s

)

s +

λα β

1

+

2

…(14)

…(15)

…(16)

…(17)

…(18)

…(19)

…(20)

…(21)

…(22)

…(23)

14

It is worth noticing that

P

A B

1

1

(

s )

+ P

A

2

B

1

( s

)

+

P

A B

1

2

( s

)

+

P

FB

1

(

s

) +

P

A F

1

(

s )

+

P

A

2

B

2

(

s

)

+

P

A

2

+

P

F

(

FB

2

s

)

(

s

)

=

1

s

…(24)

6. SOME PARTICULAR CASES

(i) When all repairs follows exponential time distribution

In this case, setting

1

D

1

( j

) =

µ

i

and

S

i

(

j

) =

j

µ

i

j +

+ µ

, for all i and j in equations (14)

i

through (21), we can obtain required probabilities of states depicted in fig-1(b).

(ii) When switching devices used are all perfect

In this case, put probabilities.

α = α = α =

12

21

1 in equations (14) through (21) to obtain required

7. RELIABILITY AND M.T.T.F OF THE SYSTEM

From equation (14), we obtain:

Again,

()

R s

1

= s

+λα +βα

1

21

1

12

R

(

t ) = L

1

{

R ( s

)

}

=

exp

{(

λα +βα

1

21

1

12

)t}

M.T.T.F. =

0

R(t)dt

=

1

λα +βα

1

21

1

12

8. AVAILABILITY OF CONSIDERED SYSTEM

Laplace transform of availability of considered system is given by:

P up

(

s

)

1

= s

+

λα βα

1

21

+

1

12

1 +

λα

1

21

s

+

λ βα

2

+

1

Taking inverse L.T., we obtain

+

P

up

( )

t

[

1

= +

E

F

]

exp

{(

λα

1

21

+

βα

1

12

)}

t

E exp

{(

λ βα

2

+

1

)t}

F

where,

E

=

1

λα βα λ βα

1

21

+

1

12

2

1

and

F

=

1

λα +βα λαβ

1

21

1

12

1

2

Also,

P

down

(t)

= 1

P

up

(t)

+

βα

1

12

s +

λα β

1

+

2

exp

{(

λα β

1

+

2

)t}

…(25)

…(26)

…(27)

…(28)

…(29)

9. NUMERICAL ILLUSTRATION For a numerical illustration, let us consider the numerical values:

λ =

1

0.01,

λ =

2

0.06,

β =

1

0.02,

β =

2

0.05,

α =

0.6,

α =

12

0.7,

α =

21

0.5

and

15

t = 0,1,2, 10 . Using these values in equations (25), (26) and (27) we obtain the graphs shown in fig-2,3 and 4 respectively.

we obtain the graphs shown in fig-2,3 and 4 respectively. Fig-2: Reliability Vs time Fig-3: Mean

Fig-2: Reliability Vs time

in fig-2,3 and 4 respectively. Fig-2: Reliability Vs time Fig-3: Mean time to failure Vs Lamda1

Fig-3: Mean time to failure Vs Lamda1

Reliability Vs time Fig-3: Mean time to failure Vs Lamda1 Fig-4: Availabilty Vs time 10. RESULTS

Fig-4: Availabilty Vs time

10. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Graph-1 gives the value of reliability function at different time points. Analysis of fig-2 reveals that reliability of considered system decreases approximately in constant manner with the increase in time. Graph-2 gives the values of M.T.T.F. Critical examination of fig-3 yields that M.T.T.F. for system decreases with increase in failure rate.

16

Graph-3 gives the value of availability function at different time points. Analysis of fig-4 reveals that availability of considered system decreases approximately in constant manner with the increase in time.

REFERENCES

1.

Cluzeau, T.; Keller, J.; Schneeweiss, W. (2008): “An Efficient Algorithm for Computing the Reliability of Consecutive-k-Out-Of-n:F Systems”, IEEE TR. on Reliability, Vol.57 (1), 84-87.

2.

Gupta P.P., Agarwal S.C. (1983): “A Boolean Algebra Method for Reliability Calculations”, Microelectron. Reliability, Vol.23, 863-865.

3.

Lai C.D., Xie M., Murthy D.N.P.(2005): “On Some Recent Modifications of Weibull Distribution”, IEEE TR. on Reliability, Vol.54 (4), 563-569.

4.

Pandey,D; Jacob , Mendus 1995: “ cost analysis ,availability and MTTF of a three state standby complex system under common-cause and human failures” , Microelectronic . Reliab., U.K., vol. 35, 91-95.

5.

Zhimin He., Han T.L., Eng H.O.(2005): “A Probabilistic Approach to Evaluate the Reliability of Piezoelectric Micro-Actuators”, IEEE TR. on Reliability, Vol.54 (1),

44-49.

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