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80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Germany: "[we] seek to cut electricity consumption by around [.] 25% by 2050" UK: "in the longer term, by 2050, electricity demand is set to double"
80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Germany: "[we] seek to cut electricity consumption by around [.] 25% by 2050" UK: "in the longer term, by 2050, electricity demand is set to double"
80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Germany: "[we] seek to cut electricity consumption by around [.] 25% by 2050" UK: "in the longer term, by 2050, electricity demand is set to double"
IS IT REALISTIC? Felix Kirsch | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Outline Motivations Sensitivity Analysis of German Scenarios Conclusions 2 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Motivations 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050
German Federal Government: [We] seek to cut electricity consumption by around [] 25% by 2050 (BMWi and BMU 2010) UK Government: In the longer term, by 2050, electricity demand is set to double, as we shift more transport and heating onto the electricity grid. (DECC 2011)
Is Germany being too ambitious? Is the UK neglecting the possibilities of energy efficiency?
3 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Differences in population forecasts
Germany: -10% UK: +25%
Electricity demand per person: Germany: -25% by 2050 -15% per person UK: +100% by 2050 +65% per person
4 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | 4 Pillars of Decarbonisation Nuclear For electricity generation
Energy demand reduction Slower growth, different user behaviour Higher energy efficiency Higher electrification (cars, el. heat pumps) CCS For electricity generation For industrial processes Renewables Direct electricity generation (wind, solar PV, hydro, etc.) Biomass Solar thermal, geothermal 5 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Energy efficiency-related assumptions Change in energy demand per person in 2050 over current levels Energy Efficiency assumptions change over current levels DE Scenario UK Scenario Households Net heat -40% -25% Lighting and Appliances -22% -19% Commercial
Net heat -70% +4% Cooling +240% +40% Lighting and Appliances -20% -12% Industry Energy Intensity -45% -40% Transport
Conv. Car Fuel Efficiency -50% -50% Electric Car Fuel Efficiency -25% -45% 6 Next step: Sensitivity analysis of energy demand in German scenarios unambitious super ambitious ambitious very ambitious Colour coding from DECC 2050 Pathways Calculator (decc.gov.uk/2050) DE = Germany DE Scenario: Scenario IA of Szenarien fr ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung (Prognos et al. 2010) UK Scenario: Pathway Alpha of Pathways Analysis (DECC 2010) | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | 1 st Sensitivity: Different useful energy demand per person Non-electric final energy e.g. fossil fuels, biomass, etc. Electricity Useful Energy e.g. heat, shaft power, etc.
7 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Results: Final energy demand per person in Germany 67 kWh/d
43 kWh/d 43 kWh/d 18 kWh/d 15 kWh/d 18 kWh/d DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with UK assumptions Electric final energy demand Non-electric final energy demand 8 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | 2 nd Sensitivity: Different electrification level Previous sensitivity + electrification quota assumptions:
DE-Scenario assumptions UK Scenario assumptions change over current levels Households Heating electrification 15% 75% Commercial Heating electrification 10% 88% Industry Industry electrification 30% 66% Transport Share of Plug-in Hybrid Cars 33% 32% Share of Battery Electric Cars 22% 48% 9 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Higher electrification of energy demand: More electricity, less non-electric final energy Non-electric final energy Electricity Useful Energy e.g. heat, shaft power, etc. 10 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Results: Final energy demand per person 67 kWh/d 43 kWh/d 30 kWh/d 18 kWh/d 15 kWh/d 26 kWh/d DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with UK assumptions Electric final energy demand Non-electric final energy demand 11 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Why the high electrification level in UK? Meeting 80% reduction in GHG emissions in 2050 requires lower emissions per person in UK: German Scenario: 2t CO 2 e per person in 2050 UK Scenario: 1.4t CO 2 e per person in 2050
Lower emissions require replacing more (high-carbon) fuels with (low-carbon) electricity
12 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | 16 kWh/d
12 kWh/d
6 kWh/d 8 kWh/d 5 kWh/d 12 kWh/d DE 2010 DE Scenario 2050 DE Scenario 2050 with UK assumptions Industry Industry energy demand per person electricity non-electric final energy demand Greatest impact of altered assumption in industry Industry DE Scenario UK Scenario Energy Intensity Improvement 45% 40% Electrification Level 30% (as today) 66% 13 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Conclusions Changes in efficiency assumptions show only moderate increases in electricity demand Electrification assumptions are more significant Electrification of industry has single greatest impact
Is decreasing electricity demand realistic? Uncertain. Should consider possibility of constant or increasing electricity demand
14 67 kWh/d 43 kWh/d 43 kWh/d 30 kWh/d 18 kWh/d 15 kWh/d 18 kWh/d 26 kWh/d DE 2010 2050 DE Scenario DE scenario with UK efficiency assumptions DE scenario with UK efficiency & electrification assumptions Electric final energy demand Non-electric final energy demand | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Thanks! felix.kirsch@hs-niederrhein.de 15 | 12 September 2012 | IAEE ConferenceVenice| Felix Kirsch | Literature BMWi and BMU (2010), Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply. Available at: http://www.bmu.de/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/energiekonzept_bundesregierung_en.pdf (accessed 20 June 2012) DECC (2011), Electricity Market Reform: keeping the lights on in the cheapest, cleanest way, DECC press release: 2011/061, 12 July 2011, Department of Energy and Climate Change. EC (2011), Energy Roadmap 2050 Impact Assessment, Part 2, European Commission. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2020/roadmap/doc/sec_2011_1565_part2.pdf (accessed 12 June 2012). Eurostat (2012), Energy balance sheets 2009-2010, European Union. Available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-EN-12-001/EN/KS-EN-12-001-EN.PDF (accessed 29 June 2012). HM Government (2011), 2050 Pathways Analysis: Response to the Call for Evidence, March 2011, Department of Energy and Climate Change. HM Government (2011a), The Carbon Plan: Delivering our low-carbon future, December 2011, Department of Energy and Climate Change. MacKay, D.J.C. (2009), Sustainable Energy without the hot air, UIT Cambridge. Available free at: www.withouthotair.com (accessed 10 July 2010). Prognos, EWI and GWS (2010), Energieszenarien fr ein Energiekonzept der Bundesregierung, Study for BMWi, Schlesinger, M., Lindenberger, D., Lutz, C. et al., Basel/Kln/Osnabrck, August 2010. Umweltbundesamt (2011), Entwicklung der spezifischen Kohlendioxid-Emissionen des deutschen Strommix 1990-2009 und erste Schtzung 2010 im Vergleich zum Stromverbrauch. Available at: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/energie/archiv/co2-strommix.pdf (accessed 12 June 2012). 16