STUDY REVITALIZATION

RAILWAY BANDA ACEH - NORTH SUMATRA BORDER

Yusrizal, Sofyan M Saleh, Noer Fadhly
Department of Urban Infrastructure Management, Master of Ciil !ngineering UNSYI"#
$opelma Darussalam, %anda "ceh &'(((
!mail ) yoeszrizal*yahoo+com
ABSTRACT
Issues that ,ill be addressed in this study is a technical factor rail,ays %anda "ceh - North Sumatra border,
and socioeconomic factors of rail,ay construction %anda "ceh - North Sumatra border+ .he method used in
the study is based on Correlation "nalysis /one, %0$ Comparison ,ith time saing, social studies
economics, inestment and feasibility and sensitiity analysis+ .he results of this study sho,ed that socio-
economic attributes of the most dominant in contributing resurrection and pull moements in "ceh proince
are UN 1eceipt Number, "rea 2ublic Fishing "rea and 2opulation Density per 3m&+ .he results of the
financial analysis for 1p &44+4445orang rail,ay inestment %anda "ceh-Medan is feasible 6FI11 alue
789:, as most inestors ,ant FI11 aboe (89+ !conomic analysis by calculating the time alue of 1p+
(;444+44 5 passengers 5 hour is still a iable pro<ect ,ith a alue of !I11 = '49+
$ey,ords) Aspects Cost, Socio-economic, Sensitivity
I. INTRODUCTION
I.1 Backgroun
.he history rail,ays in Indonesia,
especially in "ceh built since the year (>?; until
(@'@ and had reached its golden age ,ith the
operation of the train set ,ith >844 passenger
traffic and 844 tons of goods per day+ .his sho,s
the rail,ay transportation has an important role
in many types of transport, both freight and
passenger transportation+ .hen as time ,ent on,
and in line ,ith the reduction in goernment
regulations, adantages of rail are increasingly
eAperiencing deterioration and continued to
,ea3en+
.he creation a transport system must be ,ell
planned ta3ing into consideration the factors that
influence these systems, among others) demand
characteristics, land use and the conditions that
eAist in an area+ "nother factor that is not less
important is the transport system to be applied
must be capable of being eApanded to meet the
demand for transportation serices in the future+
.he application of a transportation system that
does not comply ,ith the land use, demand
characteristics, local conditions, and not through a
proper planning often cause problems difficult to
oercome, especially if the demand for
transportation serices is beyond the capacity of
the eAisting system+
In this study the scope of the reie, and
assessment limited to)
(+ "ssessing the needs of rail freight traffic by
modeling pull-based generation and zonesB
&+ "ssessing the socio-economic feasibility in
terms of inestment alue, year of inestment
and interest rate and sensitiity
I.! "ur"o#$ o% S&u'
.he purpose of this study is to assess the
needs of the goods traffic including freight rail
lines %anda "ceh - North Sumatra boundaries and
socio-economic feasibility study+
II. REVIEW LITERATURE
II.1 Tran#"or&a&(on )*ann(ng
Morlo3 6(@@(:, Cuoted from Sofyan 6&44@:
states that the transportation system is a ,ay to
moe an ob<ect from one place to another+ 0b<ects
that can be moed inanimate ob<ects such as
natural resources, manufactured goods, food, or
liing beings such as humans, animals or plants+
Susantono 6&447:, Cuoted from Sofyan
6&44@: stated that the definition of transportation
is the moement of people and goods from one
place to another ,ith the intention of trael and
use different modes of transportation possible+
Definitions are mengadung meaning that traeling
(
is done by purpose, and resources needed to trael
allocated to bring the benefits out,eigh the
resources 6mainly costs: incurred+
2apacostas D 2reedouros 6&448: states
that the trael time is the trael time to be
reie,ed 6.ime .rael:+ Eariable speed affects
the %0$+ In order to calculate the aerage speed
63m 5 h: diided by the distance formula used
trael time+ Eehicle operating costs 6U+S+ F 5 3m:
is calculated from the cost of fuel consumption,
lubricating oil consumption, tire ,ear, repair and
maintenance of ehicles, ehicle depreciation,
interest, insurance, oerhead, and time alue+
II.! Ana*'#(# R$#urr$c&(on an A&&rac&(on
.amin 6&44>: states in modeling rise of
moements, things to consider not only the
moement of people, but also the moement of
goods+
(+ 1ise of the moement for human, factors
considered include) income, ehicle
o,nership, household structure, household
size, land alue, density residential areas and
accessibility+
&+ 2ull the moement for the human factor is the
most commonly used is the floor area for
industrial actiities, commercial, offices,
shops, and other serices+
'+ 1esurrection and pull moement for goods is
a small part of the ,hole moement 6&49:,
,hich usually occurs in industrial countries+
Important ariables that influence is the
number of <obs, the number of mar3eting,
industrial roof area, and the total area
aailable+
In analyzing resurrection and pull
moements ,ith zone-based correlation analysis
model+ .he method used is step,ise( and
step,ise&+ Multiple linear regression analysis is
used to measure the influence of more than one
predictor ariable 6independent ariable: on the
dependent ariable+, More clearly seen follo,ing
eCuation &+(+
Y = a G b(H(Gb&H&G+++GbnHn ++++++++++++++ 6&+(:
Y = dependent ariable
a = Constant
b(,b& = Coefficient regresi
H(, H& = independent ariable

!.+ Econo,(c -$a#(.(*(&'
.arCuin 6&448: states that the analysis of
economic and financial feasibility in the conteAt
to determine ho, much benefit is gained if the
transport net,or3+ In principle, the results of the
feasibility analysis ,ill determine the decision
,hether or not the construction of a pro<ect+
In general, the ealuation ,as conducted
,ithin the frame,or3 of economic efficiency, in
,hich the best alternatie is selected alternatie
that proides the greatest margin oer the
monetary alue of the benefits to the costs
incurred in the arious points of ie,+ #o,eer,
not all components of the costs and benefits of a
plan can be eApressed in terms of alue for money
and can be measured in the same scale+
Shiftan 6&44?: also states the benefits and
components of cost components are then
calculated economic feasibility parameters+ .hus,
the feasibility analysis conducted in ' stages,
namely 6(: the estimated economic costs, 6&: to
estimate the economic benefits resulting from the
analysis ,ith and ,ithout the pro<ect during the
reie, period 6time horizon:, and 6': feasibility
analysis to issue a number of performance
indicators+
.arCuin 6&448: also stated that in analyzing
the economic and financial feasibility are some
basic principles that distinguish the t,o corner
field ealuation+ "ssuming that this rail,ay
operation by the priate sector, the plan must be
financially iable+ In terms of goernment, the
deelopment of a rail,ay net,or3 ,hether it be
done by the goernment or delegated to the
priate sector, should still gie it a benefit to the
community, so this plan should also be feasible
from an economic standpoint+
%lan3 D .arCuin 6&448: states the follo,ing
economic analysis conducted for the time horizon
of '4 years, by comparing t,o scenarios)
(+ Conditions ,ithout the pro<ect 6do nothing:
&+ Conditions to the pro<ect 6do something:
From both scenarios ,ere compared
bet,een the components of the cost of the benefit
component+ .he parameters used as outputs of
economic analysis is the Net 2resent Ealue 6N2E:
at discount alue of &49, &89 and '49, %enefit
Cost 1atio 6%C1: and the !conomic Internal 1ate
of 1eturn 6!I11:+
2arameter N2E is calculated using some
interest rate to estimate the difference bet,een the
costs and benefits of current and future
generations+ %y using the parameters of N2E in
an economic analysis, it is a pro<ect that can be
accepted are reCuired to hae a final alue greater
than zero+ If the parameter is obtained by
subtracting the component N2E benefits
6benefits: and cost components 6cost:, then the
%C1 parameter obtained by diiding component
benefit cost components+ .herefore, using this
parameter %C1 ,ill be declared eligible pro<ect if
the alue of %C1I (+
Internal 1ate of 1eturn 2arameters used to
determine the leel of the condition N2E = 4, so
by 3no,ing the current interest rate as ,ell as
trends in the future it can be ta3en the decision to
&
implement an actiity+ .he magnitude !I11
should be greater than the interest rate that is used
today+ If !I11 lo,er then it can be said that the
cost of implementation ,ould be more beneficial
if inested else,here for other actiities+
!./ S$n#(&(0(&' Ana*'#(#
%lan3 D .arCuin 6&448:, states the
sensitiity analysis is used to see ho, big a
ariable sensitiity to change of an indicator of
economic feasibility+ In this case the ariables that
,ill be seen is the leel of interest rate sensitiity+
Sensitiity analysis can be useful for policy
ma3ers to determine the decision if there are any
changes in the implementation plan of utilization
!.1 In#&(&u&(ona* In0$#&,$n& )a&&$rn#
2S0 by DJ", Ministry of Finance, &44?
Cuoted from Collateral 6&4(&: is a cost to be
incurred by the State due to disparity 5 difference
in cost of goods sold S0! 5 priate ,ith the price
of the products 5 serices imposed by the
Koernment to serice the products 5 serices
remain secure and affordable by most people 6the
public:+ Lhile the subsidy is a cost to be incurred
by the state due to differences in mar3et prices
6disparity: ,ith the price of the products 5 serices
imposed by the Koernment to meet the needs of
the poor+ .he similarity of the 2S0 and the
subsidy is aimed at easing the burden of the
people, especially the poor+
Infrastructure maintenance and operations
by S$%, (@@@, Cuoted from Collateral 6&4(&: is a
cost to be borne by the Koernment for the
maintenance and operation of rail infrastructure
o,ned by the Koernment+ Lor3 implementation
and operation of rail,ay maintenance include
infrastructure maintenance and operation of state-
o,ned rail,ay infrastructure+ Care infrastructure
consists of 6i: the maintenance of the railroad rail
repair, bearing repair, addition of ballast,
pemeco3an and the enironment, 6ii: bridge
maintenance, 6iii: maintenance notes, 6i:
maintenance signaling, 6: maintenance of
electrical installation flo, aboe, 6i:
maintenance of telecommunications, and 6ii:
maintenance tunnel+ In the implementation of
maintenance ,or3 and operation of rail,ay
infrastructure is al,ays stated in the contract IM0
and ."C in the year specified+ .he contract
specified olume, based on location of the IM0
performance standard rail infrastructure+ 1ail
infrastructure performance standards include) 6i:
the condition of the rail in the contract, 6ii: the
ability of the rail road ,ith a speed corresponding
graphs train trip 6gape3a: in contracts, 6iii:
rail,ay corridor, 6i: mar3 boundaries and 6:
signaling, telecommunications and electricity
flo, oer 6M"": ,ith technical problems limit
the allo,able per year+
III. RESEARCH METHODOLO2Y
+.1. R$#$arc3 S(&$#
Site the study ,as conducted in "ceh
proince, the to,ns through ,hich the train,
,hich is along the northern coast of "ceh
proince includes seeral sections including
North Sumatra border %esitang-Mangsa,
Mho3seuma,e-Mangsa, Mho3seuma,e-%ireun,
%ireuen-Sigli and Sigli-%anda "ceh +
Construction of rail,ay line follo,s the old paths
and some paths locations displaced by urban
deelopment and dense settlements+ Lhat is the
most dense Mho3seuma,e city and surrounding
areas are among $rueng Keu3uh, Muara %atu,
%atupat and Cunda+ Study area is diided into a
number of internal and eAternal zones+ Internal
zone is the zone in ,hich the region has a great
influence on the moement patterns of trael+
Lhile the eAternal zone has little effect on
moement patterns+ Mocation map more clearly
seen in Figure '+(
Figure '+( Map of 1ail,ay 1outes
+.! )r$*(,(nar' Sur0$'
.his preliminary stage is the stage of data
collection, the data collected is secondary data+
.he data obtained from the study, and preious
'
research conducted secondary surey conducted
in seeral institutions inoled+
+.+ Da&a Co**$c&(on
+.+.1 S$conar' Da&a Co**$c&(on
Secondary data collection is the beginning
stage of the ,hole <ob done, at this point made an
assessment of the situation and condition of the
study area as a reference in the policy and
planning done+ "nother thing to eApect from this
leel of anticipation of problems that may be
encountered, as ,ell as the need for data -
supporting data+
"s for secondary data plans that ,ill be
collected include)
(+ Map of the study area and zone, ,hich is to
find the rail corridor has some e3sistin
conditions and corridor is eAperiencing
regional eacuation in %ireun -
Mho3seuma,e+
&+ 1oad and rail net,or3, ,hich is to study
regionalism ,ith the main focus is the
potential demand and inter3onesi transport
net,or3+
'+ .raffic Flo, Data and %0$+
7+ Socio-economic data is the data collected for
this study ,ithin the frame,or3 of the
inestment component resources 6resource: to
be issued by the goernment, including
subsidies, the use of land o,ned by the
goernment, and other charges concerning
facility inestment alue+
Surey conducted a secondary data
collection to obtain secondary data eAisting
agencies associated ,ith the ,or3 to be done+ .he
agency ,ill be contacted in the secondary stage of
data collection is)
(+ 2.+ 1ail,ay Indonesia 5 "ceh 2roince
Department of .ransportationB
&+ %"22!D"B
'+ Central %ureau of StatisticsB
7+ National Mand "gency+
%ased on secondary data obtained from
goernment agencies are eApected to be used to
determine the socio-economic conditions of the
population and administratie oerie, of the
study area+
+.+.! )r(,ar' Da&a Co**$c&(on
(+ 2rimary surey ,as conducted to identify the
situation and condition of the eAisting site and
compare it ,ith eAisting secondary data+
&+ 1esurrection and "ttraction Surey
Surey resurrection and the pull ,ill be used
for analysis and forecasting calculate the
amount of moement of passengers and goods
are sourced from data resurrection and pull in
the study area+
+./ A##$##,$n&
#aing data is collected the neAt stage initial
assessment of the underlying aspects of technical
measures that are more specific in the neAt stages+
Kenerally classified these aspects are)
(+ .raffic "ssessment)
(: 1eie, and "nalysis of the current
moement is based on data aailable
resurrection and attraction of the surey
results, the zone-based correlation analysis
is calculated to obtain the forecast number
of passengers traeling due to the pull-
based resurrection and zone+ .he analysis
is computed using step,ise( and
step,ise& as described in Chapter II+
"nalyses ,ere performed using multiple
linear regression 6Multiple Minear
1egression: ,ith many ariables+ .his
analysis ,as calculated using the program
Microsoft !Ael statistics ,ith regression
iteration step by step+ More clearly seen in
Figure '+& belo,+
Figure '+& .he process of calibration and
alidation for Model-Correlation "nalysis
(Source: Tamin 2008)
7
Data Sosioe3onomic
Candidate independent
ariabless
Coreeelation .est
Alternate Function
Statistics
and test
Fairness
.est
Model
Resurrecton/Attractio
n
D
a
t
a

T
r
i
p

E
n
d
Yes
No
&: the aerage trael time and aerage
speed is the trael time 6.ime .rael:+
Eariable speed affects the %0$ and .ime
SaingB
': .ime Saing is calculated in this study is
the difference in trael time bet,een
rail,ay transportation ,ith bus
transportation routes Medan to %anda
"ceh to obsere the aerage trael time
bus modes+
7: %0$ 6Eehicle 0perating Cost: is
calculated from the cost of fuel
consumption, lubricating oil
consumption, repair and maintenance of
rail,ay and rail,ay trac3, interest,
insurance, and oerhead as ,ell as the
alue of time+
&+ Socioeconomic "ssessment)
(: .he cost benefit approach, in particular
the reduction of the cost of transport
systems 6the alue of time and ehicle
operating costs: and other benefits for
the community+
&: .he calculation of the benefits of rail
roads, done by calculating directly from
road users, namely a reduction in Eehicle
0perating Costs 6E0C:, the alue of
time and accidents calculated from the
difference ,ith the pro<ect and ,ithout
the pro<ect+ .his method is 3no,n as an
approach to costumer surplus
': 0n streets ,ith lo, olume and in
undeeloped areas or in areas that ,ill be
opened, such methods can not proide
<ustification for the construction of
rail,ay infrastructure+ .his is caused by
the emergence of multiplier effects
arising from actiities ,ithin the territory
of the railroad construction+
7: .he aerage rate of return 6gross aerage:
rate of return+ In choosing the number of
plans that are selected is a plan that gies
the largest aerage of return+ In fact, the
plan can still be compared, for eAample
by treatment facilities rene,al plan to
reduce costs and to be more competitie+
"nother form is to calculate the aerage
net rate of return+ #o, to calculate the
amount of aerage rate of return
produces the same ran3ing of the plans
considered but did not ta3e into account)
a+ time or ,hen the reenues ,ere
receied 6timing:, and
b+ differences in term of usefulness of
these plans are not the same+
+.1 Da&a Co,"(*a&(on An Ana*'#(#
Further analysis ,ill be conducted and
forecasting the moement of passenger traffic
comes from studies in the study area using linear
regression correlation analysis 6Multiple Minear
1egression:+ .he goal of this model is to control
the preparation of the rail,ay net,or3, to sere
the number of reCuests that predicted for thirty
years+ Data assessment and forecasting the
moement of traffic is compiled ,ith socio-
economic data to determine the alue of an
inestment, the interest rate period and obtain
affordable and economical+
+.4 E#&(,a&$ In0$#&,$n& Co#&#
.his inestment includes the cost estimates
to determine the capacity of trains and rail,ay
construction to be built as ,ell as other
inestment component based on traffic studies
and socioeconomic studies+ "t this stage the
planned phasing of the estimated cost of
infrastructure deelopment as ,ell as operations
and maintenance costs to obtain the global
estimate of the cost of construction and
maintenance 5 3m rail,ay net,or3, as ,ell as
operating costs 5 3m 5 trip trael cost component
refers to some preious studies, the SNCF 6&448:+
+.5 Econo,(c Ana*'#(#
.he economic analysis ,as conducted by
calculating the income-profits 6benafit: arising
directly 6direct benafit: or indirectly 6indirect
benafit: ,ith the pro<ect+
In general there are & 6t,o: ma<or factors
that must be considered in the economic
ealuation of the pro<ect, namely)
a+ .he pro<ect cost 6cost:
b+ 2ro<ect benefits 6benefits:
.he economic analysis ,as conducted in the
conteAt to determine ho, much benefit is gained
if the transport net,or3 segment %anda "ceh -
North Sumatra limit is enabled or enhanced rail
serice operations+ In principle, the results of the
feasibility analysis ,ill determine ,hether the
decision of rail,ays deelopment plan is so
continued or not+ In general, the ealuation ,as
conducted ,ithin the frame,or3 of economic
efficiency, in ,hich the best alternatie is selected
alternatie that proides the greatest margin oer
the monetary alue of the benefits to the costs
incurred in the arious points of ie,+
!conomic feasibility analysis performed in
this study is basically a study of the benefits
brought by the use of bac3 roads as ,ell as
improed rail serices on the rail segment %anda
"ceh - North Sumatra border+ 0f the components
of benefits and cost components are then
calculated economic feasibility parameters+ .hus,
the feasibility analysis conducted in ' stages,
8
namely 6(: the estimated economic costs+ 2rocess
6&: is to estimate the economic benefits resulting
from the analysis ,ith and ,ithout the pro<ect
during the reie, period 6time horizon:+ "fter the
second process is done, the neAt step in the
process 6': conducted a feasibility analysis to
eAclude a number of performance indicators+
+.6 S$n#(&(0(&' Ana*'#(#
.he follo,ing sensitiity analysis is used to
see ho, big a ariable sensitiity to change of an
indicator of economic feasibility+ In this case the
ariable that ,ill be seen the leel of interest rate
sensitiity is most appropriate+ Sensitiity
analysis can be useful for policy ma3ers to
determine the decision if there are any changes in
the implementation plan reuse this railroad+ In this
section, simulated if there is an increase in
interest rates in the early years of the operation of
the rail,ay reuse %anda "ceh - North Sumatra
Mimit, from the original plan in &4(& to &4(8 and
&4&4+
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
/.1. Tra%%(c A##$##,$n&
In the calculation method of the analysis of
step-by-step there are (; independent ariables
and calculations hae been done as many as &8
stages, from the oerall phase has been done, the
stage is Stage 7 meets+ Lith a alue of 1& =
4+;;&;@( is not too big, but the free ariables
inoled hae a sign 6G: as eApected, the
regression constant 6intercept: = - 7'( 4?8
0btained from this method resurrection model
eCuations)
Y 7 -/+1851 9 -1./4!4:1 9 !1.18!+!:! 9
668.1+/:+ 9 51;!/.1:/ 9 8.81!661:1
,here)
H( = .egal 5 KardensB
H& = "rea 2ublic Fishing "reaB
H' = Density of 2opulationB
H7 = Number of #ealth CenterB
H8 = 1eenue UN+
Model eCuations obtained is sufficient to
model the resurrection "ceh proince, because
some important aspects are met, such as the use of
parameters related to mobility 6represented by the
independent ariables related to population
density aspects of accessibility as ,ell:, the
parameters of a local income ,here income
related areas closely ,ith the deelopment of
regional infrastructure+ 6represented by the United
Nations 1eception independent ariables:, the
parameters of the potential in this area is the
parameter selected fisheries 6represented by the
independent ariables Fishing "reas for 2ublic:+
#o,eer, if done more computation stages again
ery li3ely obtain a more optimistic model of
resurrection planning "ceh proince, ,here the
alue of 1& obtained is approaching (+
In the calculation method of type &, there are
(; independent ariables and hae reached the
stage of calculation &8+ From these results, the
best model is stage (;, as most of the free
ariables inoled hae a sign 6G: as eApected,
the alue of 1& = 4+>7&44@, the alue of the
regression constant 6intercept: = -(?(?7&;
0btained from this method "ttraction model
eCuations)
Y 7 -1515/!4 9 1.15/14!:1 9 565.;;15:! 9
8.81;616:+ 9 15+4.6!+:/ 9 /.6151+!:1
98.8881;+:4
,here)
H( = 2opulation .otalB
H& = Number of Customers 5 .ouris ForeignB
H' = 1eenue UN 6ID1:B
H7 = Mength Krael 1oad 6$m:B
H8 = Number of 2roduction "gricultureB
H; = Eolume of eAports 63g:+
Model eCuations obtained is sufficient to
model the pull of "ceh proince, because some
important aspects are met, such as the use of
parameters related to mobility 6represented by the
independent ariables 2opulation .otal related to
aspects of accessibility as ,ell:, the parameter
regions ,here the reenue income of a region
closely related to the deelopment of regional
infrastructure+ 6represented by the independent
ariables 1eenue and Eolume !Aports UN:, the
parameters of the potential in this region is
selected partanian parameter 6represented by the
independent ariables Number of 2roduction
"griculture:+
#o,eer, if done more computation stages
again ery li3ely obtain a more optimistic model
of resurrection planning "ceh proince, ,here the
alue of 1& obtained is approaching (+
resurrection and attraction of the eCuation
obtained, forecasts can be calculated that the
number of passengers traeling due to
resurrection and forecast the number of
passengers traeling due to the pull so that the
total passenger can be estimated+
/.!. Soc(o-Econo,(c A##$##,$n&
In this study the analysis of economic and
financial feasibility in the conteAt to determine
ho, much benefit is gained if the rail transport
net,or3 built in route %anda "ceh - Medan+ In
;
principle, the results of the feasibility analysis
,ill determine ,hether the decision of rail,ays
deelopment plan is so continued or not+
Components of benefits and cost
components are then calculated financial
feasibility parameters+
/.!.1. E#&(,a&$ Co#& R$<u(r$,$n&
In this study, as described in Chapter III, the
calculated cost components include)
(+ construction costs
&+ .he costs of facilities
'+ operational costs
7+ 2eriodic maintenance costs
2rocurement cost of each component of the
course adapted to the scenario or railroad
construction phasing plan in %anda "ceh route -
Mimit North Sumatra+ 1eferring to the
methodology that has been discussed preiously
in Chapter III defined phases of the deelopment
plan as sho,n in .able 7+(+
.able 7+( 2hasing 2lan for 1ail,ay Deelopment
in %anda "ceh route - North Sumatra
%order
Furthermore, in .able 7+& and .able 7+' resumes
deliered unit cost of infrastructure deelopment
and procurement plan means calculated in
accordance ,ith the deelopment plan as
presented in .able 7+(+
.able 7+& !stimated Cost Component
Infrastructure Deelopment 2lan
.able 7+'+ Cost 2rocurement Facility
0perational cost reCuirements outlined in .able
7+7 belo,+
.able 7+7 .he 1ail,ay 0perational Cost
Calculations
.otal operating costs and maintenance and
periodic maintenance costs are sho,n in .able 7+8
and .able 7+; belo,+
.able 7+8 .otal Cost of 0peration D routine
maintenance 5 year
.able 7+; 2eriodic Maintenance Costs
"ssuming the costs coered by the %an3 and the
borro,ing interest rate is (89 per year, the total
cost is as follo,s .able 7+?
?
.able 7+? .otal !stimated Cost
/.!.!. E#&(,a&$ R$0$nu$
%asically the financial feasibility analysis is
performed to calculate the feasibility of
construction and operation of rail,ays %anda
"ceh - North Sumatra Mimit by comparing the
total cost 6cost: to the income 5 return 6reenue:
generated during the planning period 6time
horizon:+ In other ,ords, financial analysis is
done by establishing the current alue of money
6cash flo,: from the rail road plan from the point
of inestors+ In the financial feasibility analysis,
the ,riter assumes that the passenger base rate
,ill apply to the user is 1p+ &44+444, -
!stimated operating income rail,ay %anda
"ceh - North Sumatra limits generally presented
in .able 7+> and .able 7+@+ .his tra<ectory is
assumed to be operated in &4(& and a (>-year
reie, period up to year &4'4+
.able 7+> Number of 2assengers
Forecast the number of passengers using the
modeling of resurrection to the number of
passengers from %anda "ceh - North Sumatra
limit, ,hile the number of passengers from North
Sumatra Mimit - %anda "ceh using modeling
sebelumnya+2ra3iraan tug has been analyzed and
the calculation of the number of passengers
predicted to eAperience gro,th in line ,ith
population gro,th in those +
.able 7+@ .otal 1eenues !ach Year 1eie,
Note)
1ates are set by the same author year inestment plan, due to
the fiAed rate conditions are faorable+
/.+. In(ca&or# -(nanc(a* -$a#(.(*(&'
!stimated economic indicators and financial
feasibility of inestments rail,ay %anda "ceh -
North Sumatra limits generally presented in .able
7+(4 and .able 7+((+ Financially seen from its
inestment FI11 rail,ay %anda "ceh - North
Sumatra is feasible limit is 789, because in most
cases the operator ,ants FI11 aboe (89+
.able 7+(4 Indicators of Financial Feasibility $"
%anda "ceh - North Sumatra Mimit
/./. Econo,(c Ana*(#'#
.he economic analysis ,as performed by
considering the alue of saing time 6time saing:
rail users ,hen compared to using bus mode+
.ime saing is the difference in the time ta3en in
traeling by rail modes and bus modes+ .he
difference this time ,ill be ery bermamfaat
6%enefit: for people ,ith saings 3erana time
many things can be done and ,hat is planned can
be implemented ,ell+ .ime alues obtained from
preious studies, "nonymous 6&4((:, amounting
to 1p+ (;+4445penumpang5<am+
From the calculated alue obtained !I11 of
'49 is ,orth it if only to consider the alue of
time+
.able 7+(( Indicators of !conomic Feasibility $"
%anda "ceh - North Sumatra Mimit
/.1. R$co,,$n$ In#&(&u&(ona* In0$#&,$n&
)a&&$rn#
1ail,ays reCuire huge inestments and
eApensie, ,hile if the financial terms of the
components is often not feasible due to the
benefits in terms of reenue through passenger
fares should pay attention to the competition ,ith
other modes, in this case the bus+
>
.he calculation of the aboe financial
analysis in terms of the 2.+ $"I as rail,ay
administrators, ,ho are responsible for the
proision and maintenance of rail,ay
infrastructure systems, the proision and
maintenance of rail,ays and operation+
Calculation assuming the alue of I11 (89
in &4(& ,ill be achieed if the rate per passenger
%!2 1p+ &44,444+ So if a set rate per passenger
remains 1p+&44+444 the Koernment should not
subsidize passenger+
If you ,ant the priate sector to participate
in the deelopment of rail,ay trac3 %anda "ceh -
North Sumatra Mimit, then there are some
considerations to be a,are of the follo,ing)
6(: .he aboe financial calculation considers only
the income from passenger fares only
6&: It should be ta3en into account more factors
$" reenues from the commercialization of
land and use other means, such as land for
shops, school, adertisement, sale of food in
trains and stations
6': 2riate able to be fully inoled as an operator
6the proision of rolling stoc3, rail,ay
operations, and maintenance:, although the
Fare %oA 1atio is not too high
67: In order to attract inestors much needed
compensation from other sectors 6oil, mining,
etc+:
In accordance ,ith Ma, ('5(@@&, of the
rail,ays, the goernmentNs role is emphasized on
the proision and maintenance of rail,ay
infrastructure systems+ Nm 0perator 5 state 5
agency rail,ay peyelenggara more responsible
for the proision and maintenance of rail,ays and
operation+ Since &444, the goernment subsidy is
defined as net compensation 62S0 G IM0-."C:+
!nergy-efficient modes of transportation
such as trains ,ill be more releant if it is
associated ,ith limited fuel reseres in Indonesia+
"s an illustration, as sho,n in .able 7+(&, CC+&4(
locomoties capable of hauling (& passenger
trains ,ith (844 passengers only consume &-'
liters of fuel per $M so that practically only
4+44(' liters - 4+44& liters per passenger
3ilometer+ Compare ,ith bus consumes 4+8 liters
per $M G carrying 74 passengers, ,hich means
eery passenger 3ilometer G 4+4(&8 liter of fuel
consumed+
.able 7+(& Comparison of !nergy Consumption
in 0il .ransport Modes
0n the other side of the rail,ay transport
also generates eAternal benefits are perceied to
be Cuite large, among other things, fuel efficient
6as ,ell as the fuel subsidy:, reduce high,ay
congestion 6congestion costs incurred and road
users:, land-saing, lo, pollution, and so forth +
!Aternal benefits ,ere en<oyed by the goernment
and the people, ,hose alue is greater than
goernment subsidies should be gien to the
rail,ay company+
/.1.1. -un(ng Sc3$,$ =)SO> IMO an TAC?
.o increase accountability and serice, has
commenced a restructuring program and
institutional and policy reforms rail,ays, along
,ith the 1ail,ay !fficiency program, ,hich
funded the implementation of Lorld %an3
lending 6I%1D Moan 7(4;-IND:+ 0ne of the
program ,as to conduct restructuring of the
rail,ay funding through financing schemes 2S0-
IM0-."C+
Net financing amount 62S0 G IM0-."C:
,ill affect the cash flo, and financial liCuidity
2.+ 1ail,ays 6Mimited:+ %ut the amount of net
proided by the goernment can be smaller than
the net that should be gien+ In the model aboe
net has a multiplier factor correction to net ,hich
means the goernment could proide net under
the net should be gien to 2.+ 1ail,ays
6Mimited:+
2hilosophical foundation funding scheme is
the eAistence of a clear diision of roles bet,een
the public serice functions 6goernment: and
commercial functions rail,ay company, based on
the principles of 2S0, IM0, the ."C as
mentioned in the Ma,+ (' Year (@@& on the
rail,ays+ .hus, the function of public serices be
maintained 6through subsidies or public serice
obligation of the goernment:, but its
management can be more professional, efficient,
accountable 6Cuality maintenance and operation
funding scheme infrastructure maintenance and
operation of goernment agencies to the rail,ay
operator: and that inestment can be more useful,
efficient and sustainable 6through the application
of trac3 access charges fees to users of rail,ay
infrastructure maintenance and operating costs to
infrastructure and cost recoery for depreciation
of infrastructure inestment can be replaced:+
/.1.!. In#&(&u&(ona* O"&(on Ra(*@a'#
"ccording to Ma, ('5(@@& on 1ail,ays+
2riate companies may <ust be able to engage
,ith the $S0, the sole administrators, current 2.+
1ail,ays 6Mimited:+ "ppropriate funding scheme
ministerial decree regarding 2S0, IM0, ."C
applies to the use of assets, operation and
maintenance of rail,ay infrastructure+
@
In the future there are seeral possible
institutional deelopment, ,hich ,ill essentially
remoe the role of organizing rail,ay monopoly
and open up opportunities for the inolement of
local goernments in the administration of $"+
.he first option, a plan of opening opportunities
for priate enterprises and public enterprises to
operate freight 3a 6multi-carrier:, infrastructure
operators are entrusted to 2.+ 1ail,ays 6Mimited:,
as a contractor IM0+
.he second option, in the form of separation
of infrastructure operator, either U2., #ousing,
and 2ersero+ In this option introduced the
principle of negotiation or open access for the
users of the infrastructure+ 2. 1ail,ays 6Mimited:
only act as carriers+ .he operator of infrastructure
,ill be managed by specialized institutions
outside or inside goernment, ,ho ,ill receie
."C ley+
!ach option has its o,n adantages and
disadantages+ Currently 2.+ 1ail,ays 6Mtd: is
continuing corporate restructuring agenda+ Some
important business lines hae been established,
such as the Diision has formed Jabotabe3
Diision, Facilities Diision, 2roperty Diision,
.raining Diision+ Currently being prepared
formation Diision passenger transport, Freight
Diision and Diision of IM0 6infrastructure:+
V. CONCLUSIONS AND
RECOMMENDATIONS
1.1. Conc*u#(on#
(+ Model eCuations resurrection moement in
"ceh proince is the most fulfilling)
Y 7 -/+1 851 9 9-1./4!4:1 !1.18!+!:!
668.1+/:+ 9 9 9 51;!/.1:/ 8.81!661:1, the
models obtained by step,ise method type (+
!Cuation models pull moement in "ceh
proince is the most fulfilling)
Y 7 -1515/!4 9 1.15/14!:1 9 565.;;15:! 9
8.81;616:+ 9 15+4.6!+:/ 9 /.6151+!:1
98.8881;+ :4 is a model obtained by
step,ise method &+
&+ Some socio-economic attributes of the most
dominant in contributing resurrection and pull
moements in "ceh proince are) .otal
1eenue UN Keneral Fishing "rea Lidth and
Density of 2opulation per 3m&+
'+ From the analysis obtained in &4(& for
infrastructure costs (,8&7,@>4,444,444, -
rupiah and facilities in &4(; amounted to
&>+?48 billion, - rupiah, operation and
maintenance costs starting from the year &4(;
to the year &4'4 amounted to '(+(;( billion
per year , - rupiah, mantenan periodically
eery fie years beginning in &4(; amounted
to 7;+(>7 billion Ndollars+
7+ .he number of passengers in the estimate
continues to gro, each year by &4(& is
&,&>4,8&4 of %anda "ceh to Medan and
(,8&4,'7? from Medan to %anda "ceh+ So is
the number of locomoties and carriages ,ere
in &4&4 to & locomoties and 74 carriages in
&4'4+
8+ From the results of the financial analysis for
1p &44+4445orang rail,ay inestment in
%anda "ceh-Medan is feasible 6FI11 alue
789:, as most inestors ,ant FI11 aboe
(89+
;+ 0f economic analysis to calculate the time
alue of 1p+ (;444+44 5 passengers 5 hour is
still a iable pro<ect ,ith a alue of !I11 =
'49
1.!. R$co,,$na&(on#
(+ In order to obtain the model eCuation the most
optimistic, the data should be identified in
adance socio-economic dominant
contribution to the moement in the area+
&+ !conomic analysis needs to be done ta3ing
into account eAternal factors such as the cost
of accidents, ehicle operating costs,
enironmental factors, social and cultural
rights, the alue of time, the deelopment of
the area, the potential of the area so that the
pro<ect is feasible+
'+ Need to do financial calculations to compute
land leasing reenue for adertising on the
station, eating house rent, school and other
stalls
7+ Subsidies from the goernment is needed for
the construction of this rail,ay construction,
rail,ay inestment since the cost is ery
eApensie
8+ It should be a clearer diision of roles bet,een
the public serice functions 6goernment: to
the rail,ay companyNs commercial function,
based on the principles of 2S0, IM0, ."C
and immediately implemented the
restructuring of the rail,ay funding through
financing schemes 2S0-IM0-."C
RE-ERENCES
"nonim, &448, Studi Perkeretaapian Nanggroe
Aceh Darussalam (lintas Banda Aceh
Medan), SNCF International+
"nonim, &44>, Tranportation Research at
Uniersit! o" #ali"ornia, J0U1N"M
"CC!SS, California+
(4
"nonim, &4(4, Buku A$ar %konomi Mana$emen
Pemeliharaan &alan Ra!a, Unsyiah,
%anda "ceh
"nonim, &4((, Perhitungan Nilai 'aktu
Per$alanan Banda Aceh Medan, ."
.e3ni3 Sipil, Uniersitas Syiah $uala+
%lan3, M2! D .arCuin, "2! &448, %ngineering
%conom!, SiAth !dition, McKra, #ill
Companies, Inc+, Ne, Yor3, "merica+
Fric3er, L &447, (undamental o" Transpotation
%ngineering, 2rentice #all, 2earson
!ducation, Inc+, Upper Saddle 1ier,
Ne, Jersey+
Nazir, M &44>, Metode Penelitian, 2enerbit
Khalia Indonesia, Cia,i, Indonesia
2apacostas, CS D 2reedourus, 2D &448,
Transportation %ngineering )
Planning, 2rentice #all, 2earson
!ducation South "sia 2te Mtd,
Singapore+
1achmadi, &444, Reka!asa &alan *ereta Api,
2enerbit I.%, %andung+
Shiftan, Y &44?, Tranportation Planning, "n
!lgar eference Collection, Cheltenham,
U$ Northampton, M", US"+
Sofyan, MS &44@, *e+i$akan Sistem
Transportasi Barang Multimoda Untuk
Mengurangi *erusakan &alan Aki+at
Be+an Berle+ih 6Studi $asus) 2roinsi
Nanggroe "ceh Darussalam:, Desertasi
Do3tor, Institut .e3nologi %andung,
%andung+
.amin, 0/ &44>, Perencanaan, Permodelan )
Reka!asa Transportasi, 2enerbit I.%,
%andung+
)u#&aka ar( #(&u# In&$rn$& A
"gunan, S &4(&, Prospek Perkeretaapian PS-.
/M-.TA#.BMN.PS0, dia3ses ;
o3tober &4(&,
http)55,,,+fis3al+dep3eu+go+id
Financing For Deelopment &44?, Dengan PS-
Men$em+atani *esen$angan
/n"rastruktur, dia3ses ; o3tober &4(&,
,,,+globalclearinghouse+org
Suhermin "2, &44>, Analisis Regresi 0inier
Berganda Untuk Mengetahui
1u+ungan Antara Be+erapa Akti"itas
Promosi dan Pen$ualan Produk, dia3ses
(& o3tober &4(&, http)55blog+its+ac+id
((