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Comentarios
El día comienza con bastante tranquilidad desde el punto de vista de los datos macroeconómicos, pero en los próximos dos días tendremos bastantes cifras,
incluido el PIB de los EE.UU., los datos de la vivienda, la Renta Personal y el Índice de Confianza de de la Universidad de Michigan.
El índice del dólar estadounidense sigue donde lo dejamos el viernes, mientras que los precios de los CDS corporativos permanecen sin cambios. Hoy buscamos
que continúen las ganancias en la renta variable, y tenemos una posición de “vender en la ruptura”.
Se espera que el Índice de Actividad de la Reserva Nacional de Chicago mejore respecto del nivel de –1,08 de octubre. Un nivel negativo indica que la economía de
los EE.UU. sigue creciendo por debajo de la tendencia histórica.
Datos publicaciones económicas
País Hora (GMT) Nombre Saxo Consenso Anterior
EE.UU. 13:30 Índice de Actividad de la Res. Nac. de Chicago (NOV) -1,08
CA 13:30 Ventas Minoristas Intermens. (OCT) 0,8% 1,0%
CA 13:30 Ventas Minoristas Intermens. sin incluir Automov. 0,3% 1,1%
(OCT)
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GMT)
Informe Diario de Mercado
2 120
1,5
100
80
0,5
60
0
-0,5
40
11-aug 11-okt 11-dec 11-feb 11-apr 11-jun 11-aug 11-okt 11-dec
22-12-2008 22-02-2009 22-04-2009 22-06-2009 22-08-2009 22-10-2009
US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the
inflation expectations. perceived default risk in a company. Now at 46.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
30 6
25 5
20 4
15 3
2
10
1
5
0
0
maj-08 aug-08 nov-08 feb-09 maj-09 aug-09 nov-09
dec-07 feb-08 apr-08 jun-08 aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09 dec-09
EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight
corporate debt markets.
CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX
12 35
30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2 5
0
0
jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09
feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09 okt-09 nov-09 dec-09
CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German
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