Revision: Hypothesis Testing

1. Null hypothesis, H
o
: Parameter has certain
value or target value.
Alternative hypothesis, H
1
: parameter has
increased, or has decreased or has different
value.

2. Critical region or rejection region is the range
of values of the test statistic for which Ho is
rejected in favour of H
1
.
3.
4. Significance level is the probability of rejecting
H
o
when H
o
is true. (Type I error)

5. Steps in hypothesis testing:
Step 1 : Write down H
o
and H
1

Step 2 : Determine the significant
level and state the critical
regions
Step 3 : Select the appropriate test
statistic, z and calculate it
value.
Step 4 : Conclusion: Decide to
accept or reject H
o
.

6. Significance test for the proportion p of a
binomial distribution when size sample n is
small.
Use exact binomial distribution X ~ B(n,p)
H
o
:p = p
o

H
1
:p < p
o

H
o
:p = p
o

H
1
:p > p
o

H
o
:p = p
o

H
1
:p p
o

Critical Region
Reject H
o
if P(X
x) < %
Critical
Region
Reject H
o
if
P(X x) <
%
Critical Region
Reject H
o
if P(X
x) < % or
if P(Xx) <
%

7. Hypothesis testing for mean, :
H
o
: =
o

Distribution Variance
Sample
size, n
Test statistic
z
Normal
Variance,

2
known
any size
o
x
z
n

Not
normally
distribution
Variance,

2
known
n large
Central
Limit
Theorem
o
x
z
n

Not
normally
distribution
Variance
unknown
2

n large

o
x
z
n

where
2
=
2
1
n
s
n
unbiased estimate of
population variance.

8. Significance test for the proportion p of a
binomial distribution when size sample n is
large. [H
o
: p = p
o
]
If np
o
> 5 and nq
o
> 5, then X ~ N(np, npq)
Test statistic
o
o o
X np
z
np q

(continuity correction 0.5)

or

o
o o
p p
z
p q
n

(continuity correction
1
2n
)
Note: Continuity factor 0.5 or
1
2n



Exercise
1. A petroleum company claims that its petrol
has a RON rating of at least 97. From a
random sample of 15 petrol stations selling
the petrol, the mean RON rating is found to be
96.30.
Assuming that the RON rating of the petrol of
the petroleum company has a normal
distribution with standard deviation 3.21,
(a) test the claim of the petroleum company at
the 2.5% significance level,
(b) Determine the smallest sample size
required so that the null hypothesis in the
test of the petroleum companys claim is
rejected at the 5% significance level.
[(a) H
1
: < 97; z = -0.0563 > -1.96, accept H
o
.
Not sufficient evidence to reject the claims of
the petroleum company. (b) n = 57]

2. Random variable X is normally distributed
with mean and variance 36. The
significance tests performed on the null

For continuity correction, the discrete value of 57
being represented by a rectangle over the
continuous values from 56.5 to 57.5.
To reject H
o
, the complete rectangle must lie in the
critical region. Therefore take (x-0.5)-np or
1
( )
2
o
p p
n

X np or
o
p p is negative value(left hand side of
mean) and to ensure that the whole rectangle lie
inside the rejection region, we have to (x+0.5) np
or
1
( )
2
o
p p
n


hypothesis H
0
: = 70 versus the
alternative hypothesis H
1
: 70 with a
significance level of 1%. A random sample of
30 observations of X are taken and sample
mean X

taken as the test statistic. Find the
range of the test statistic lies in the critical
region.
[Reject Ho if

< 67.18 or

> 72.82]

3. A drugs company produced a new pain-
relieving drug for the migraine suffers and its
advertisement stated that the drug had a 90%
success rate. A doctor doubted whether the
drug would be as successful as the company
claimed. She prescribed the drug for 15 of her
patients. After 6 months, 11 of these patients
said that their migraine symptoms had been
relieved by the drug.
a) Test the drug companys claim, at the 5%
level of significance. State clearly the critical
region.
b) Should the doctor continue to prescribed
the drug?
[(a) H
1
:p<0.9; P(X 11) = 0.056 0.05, do not
reject H
o
, (b) Reject H
o
if X = 12,13, 14 or 15
(c) P(X 11) is only just greater than 5%. The
doctor should carry out more test before accept the
claims the company]

4. In last years Local Council Elections, the
Purple party gained 35% of the vote. Prior to
this years election, the party asked a
researcher to find out whether support of the
party had changed. Out of 12 voters selected
at random, one said that he would vote for the
Purple party.
(a) Test, at the 10% level, whether support
for the Purple party has changed.
(b) Find the clearly the critical region.
[ H
1
: p0.35, P(X1) = 0.04244 < 0.05, Reject Ho.
(b) Reject Ho if X = 0, 1,8, 9, 10, 11,12]

5. A random observation is taken from a
binomial distribution X~B(20, p) and used to
test the hypothesis H
o
: p = 0.8 against H
1
:p >
0.8. If the critical region is X 19,
a) find the significance level of the test.
b) if p = 0.85, find the probability of
accepting H
o
.
[ (a) P(X19) = 0.0692 7%;
(b) X ~B(20,0.85), P(X 19) = 0.8244(Type II
error ]

6. Each year trainees throughout the country sit
a test. Over a period of time it has been
established that the marks can be modelled
by a normal distribution with mean 70 and
standard deviation 6.
This year it was though that trainees from a
particular country did not perform as well as
expected. The marks of a random sample of
25 trainees from the country were chosen and
it was found that their mean mark was 67.3
a) Does this provided evidence, at 5%
significance level, that trainees from this
country did not perform well as expected?
b) Find the critical region for mean sample.
[(a) H
1
: <70, z = -2.25< -1.645, Reject H
o
(b) Reject H
o
if x is less than 68.03 ]

7. A sample of size 16 is taken from a normal
distribution with standard deviation 3. A
hypothesis test is carried out for
H
o
: = 100 against H
1
: > 100.
If the critical region is x > 101.932, determine
the significance level of the test. [1%]

8. The heights of a certain variety of plant have
been found to be normally distributed with
mean 75.2 cm and standard deviation 5.7
cm. A biologist suspects that pollution i n a
certain region is causing the plants to be
shorter than usual. He takes a random
sample of n plants of this variety from this
region and finds that their mean height is
73.1 cm. He then carries out an
appropriate hypothesis test.
(a) He finds that the value of the test
statistic z is 1.563, correct to 3 decimal
places. Calculate the value of n. State an
assumption necessary for your calculation.
(b) Use this value of the test statistic to carry
out the hypothesis test at the 6%
significance level.
[ (
a
)
n=18
assume the standard
deviation for the
region is 5.7
b)
]

9. The times taken by students to complete a
task are normally distributed with standard
deviation 2.4 minutes. A lecturer claims
that the mean time is 17.0 minutes. The
times taken by a random sample of 5
students were 17.8, 22.4, 16.3, 23.1 and
11.4 minutes. Carry out a hypothesis test at
the 5% significance level to determine
whether the lecturers claim should be
accepted.
[


]

10. An inspector of items from a production line
takes, on average, 21.75 seconds to check
each item. After the installation of a new
lighting system, the times, t seconds, to check
each of 50 randomly chosen items from the
production line are summarised t = 1107, t
2

= 24 592.35.
(a) Calculate an unbiased estimate of the
population variance of the time taken to check
an item under the new lighting system. [1.7014]
(b) Test at the 5% significance whether there
is evidence that the population mean time has
changed from 21.75 seconds.
(c) Find a 90% confidence interval for . If
the mean time for another sample is recorded
as 21.82 seconds, is there any evidence that
the mean time has changed.
[(b) H
1
: 21.75, z = 2.114 > 1.96, reject H
o
.
[(c) mean sample 21.82 lies within the confidence
interval (21.67, 22.61), do not reject H
o
,
insufficient evidence the mean time has changed]

11. A golf professional sells wooden tees. The
type that he usually sells is very brittle, and
25% break on the first occasion that they are
used. The golfers are not very pleased about
this, so the golf professional buys a batch of
'Longlast' tees (which are supposed to last
longer!). The professional chooses a random
sample of 100 of these tees and tries them
out. Only 18 break on the first occasion that
they are used. Does this provide significant
evidence, at the 1% level, that the proportion
of 'Longlast' tees that break on the first
occasion they are used is less than 25%?
[H
1
: p < 0.25, z = -1.5 > -2.326 accept H
o
]

12. When cars arrive at a certain T-junction they
turn either right or left. Part of a study of road
usage involved deciding between the
following alternatives.
Cars are equally likely to turn right or left.
Cars are more likely to turn right than left.
(a) State suitable null and alternative
hypotheses, involving a probability, for
significance test.
(b) Out of a random sample of 40 cars, n
turned right. Use a suitable approximation to
find the least value of n for which the null
hypothesis will be rejected at the 2%
significance level.
(c) For the test described in (b), calculate the
probability of accepting H
o
when, in fact, 80%
of all cars arriving at the junction turn right.
[ H
o
: p = 0.5, H
1
: P > 0.5 (b) X ~ B(40, 0.5)
n large X~N(20, 10); P(X n-0.5) < 0.02; n = 27; (c)
X ~ B(40,0.8) => X ~ N(32,6.4)
P(H
o
accepted | H
1
is true) = P(X<27) =P(X<26.5)
= 0.0148 ]