--'"

Climate Changeand Changing

scenario of Rural Livelihood
Structure: A Case Study from
KuHn Block of Himachal
Pradesh
Dr. Sujit Kumar Paul
Associate Professor, Department of Lifelong Learning and
Extension, Rural Extension Centre, Visva- Bharati (A
Central Universityj, Sriniketan - 731236, Birbhum, West
Bengal, Email -skpaulrd@gmail.com
Anindya Mitra
Project Fellow, Department of Lifelong Learning and
Extension, Rural Extension Centre, Visva- Bharati (A
Central University), Sriniketan-731236, Birbhum, West
Bengal, Email-anindya.mitra.vbrd@gmail.com
Abstract:
The Himalayan region is one of the most
hazard prone areas of the world. It is naturally
linked to global atnwspheric circulation, hydro-
logical cycle, biodiversity, and water resources. With
increasing average global temperature, the
Himalayan region has witnessed an increase of
O.15Cto o.6e per decade in the last"three decades.
Impacts of climate change and climate variability
have been well experienced in the Himalayas.
Fluctuations in the normal weather patterns,
including shifting of seasons, and deviations in
temperatures, timing and periodicity of sunshine,
rainfall, and snowfall, have also been observed.
Climate induced events have impacted the lives,
assets, and livelihoods of the mountain communities
of Himalayan region, especially traditional
livelihood options like agriculture and animal
husbandry. Decreased productivity of existing crops
and the resultant changes in cropping patterns have
commonly been observed in the region. So, the main
focus of this paper is to assess the impact of climate
change as UJellas to identify coping and adaptation
mechanisms evolved by the community. .
Introduction: .
The global climate change is making an impact
even in Himachal Pradesh, a state that has always
been known for its environmental consciousness.
The physical and socio-economic characteristics of
the Himalayan region combined with the changing
risk factors such as environmental and climate
change, population growth, and e~onomic
globalization have rendered the region highly
vulnerable. There has also been an increase in the
frequency as well as intensity of hydro-
meteorological hazards in the I'egion such as higher
incidences of riverine floods and droughts,
secondary hazards like land~ides/slope failures,
'out of season' occurrences of concentrated rainfall,
uash foods, and cloudbursts, 'prolonged drought,
torrential rains, etc. Changes in the normal weather
patterns, including'shifting of seasons, and
variations in temperatures, timing and periodicity
of sunshine, rainfall, and snowfall, have also been
observed. The trend analysis of climatic variables
(temperature and precipitation) at various altitudes
in Himachal Pradesh over more than two decades
is given in the following~
Table No.1: Altitude wise Climatic Variables in Himachal Pradesh
(+) =increase,(-) =decrease Source: Dept. of Environment, Scienc;g & 1'edmology, GoHP
This paper was presented in the National Seminar on Environmental issues: Protection, Conservation
and Management held in Viswabharati during 22-23 Nov., 2013
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
58
I
Altitude Observation Station Annual Annual Mean Data I
!
(amsl) Mean Temp. Rainfall
Base
I
I
I
1,500 - 2,400 Theog (Shirrtla) (+) 108C (-) 127 mID 20 Years
I
I
High Hill Temperature Wet (+) in Kharif Season
!
,
1,200- 1,800
Kullu (+) 2.8 C (-) 20.1 mm 34 Years
I
I
High Hill temperature Wet (+) in Kharif Season
I
I
700 - 1,500 Palmpur (Kangra) (+) 1.0 C
(-) 1000 plm
35 Years
I
!
Mid Hill Sub Humid
exceptional decrease
I
I
(+) in Kharif Season
I
I
< 700
Fatehpur (Sirmour)
(+) (-) 29.4 mll1 23 Years
i
I
Low Hill Sub Humid
!
I
80 KPaul &A Mitra
In the recent past, there have been several communities have adopted coping mechanisms such
0' ~, " ~ ~~, . ." ."
epIsodes ot cloudbursts attectlng vIllages m the
--., .~, . , ., , "
.tiImalayan regIon. lJllmate-maucea events nave
impacted the lives, assets, and livelihoods of the
mountain communities of Himachal Pradesh,
." ' '" ", '" - ' '"
especIally tradItIOnal llvellhOOCl optIOns lIKe
agriculture and animal husbandry. The change in
the extreme events of rainfall and temperature will
have direct or indirect h,Garingson different sectors
of economy with changes in hydrological response
or the basins including impacts on glaciers. The
changes land use patterns are expected with impact
on development trends.
Variousdevelopment sectors will primarily be
affected adversely in changing climatic scenario
either directly (agriculture, water resources, bio
diversity and forest! or indirectly Oivelihood,
, , , , .,,~,. ,~
tOUrIsm, nydropower, nea1tn).ll1e Impacts ot
changing climatic variables are given in Table No.
<)
"".
the I~:~~::~;~~~~~~ti:i~~oO:p~~:~~ft~;~~S h:~:
commonly been observed in the region, such as
diminishing quality and productivity of apples in
the lower reaches of the valleys of Kullu districts
of Himachal Pradesh. In addition to the direct
impact on crops and livestock, events such as
landslides and floods resultin economic losses due
to disruption of tra:dsportation linkages with
. , ... , .. " . ~
markets, leadmg to snarp rise III tile prIces 01
essential goods and food. Greater intensity and
frequency of cl,:-'"ate-induced events also discourage
tourists, and d-estroy natural resources and
. .,.'. ~ . , ." . , .
hospitalIty I.Q.trastructuretllatare cruCIal to
tourism industry.
"A",lthough, mountain communities have been
'.. " ". ..",- - -
practIcIng rlsk mItIgatIOn and Cllmate cllange
, - ~.
aaaptatlOIl
. ,... n
tramnonauy. IViany
measures
. " .",
as changes IT! croppIng patterns, agnCultUral
practices, crop diversification, and changes in
soviing and harvesting time of crops to less disaster-
prone seasons, However, rapid urbanization,
population increase, uncontrolled development,
sustained poverty, inadequately protected
infrastructure, deforestation, and environmental
. ".~. , '" .' ..-
degradatIOn trom varIOUSanthropogemc aCtIVItIeS
accentuate the vulnerabilitiesof mountain
communities to the iLUpacts of climate change/
variability,
Objective or the Study:
The main objective of the study is to assess
the changes in major climatic factors and its impact
on rural livelihood structure as well as identify the
coping and adaptation mechanism evolved by the
local community, The paper is also tried to
recommend some interventions for strengthening
the sustainable and positive adaptation
mecnanisms.
Area and Methodology of the Study:
~, .. ' ,"' ,. ,. T~"
l'he present study has oeen conductea m.fiuttu
Block of [(uUu disctict, Himachal Pradesh. The
Kullu block was purposively selected for this study.
Three villages were randomly selected for the
present study viz. Osan, Rogan and Chong.
However, these villages ,vere screen on the basis
of some criteria e.g., economic status, educational
status, cropping pattern, forest and agriculture
area, animal husbandryprofile, people's
participation in development programmes, status
of orchard, drought condition,. road network a:~d
::~~:~:~i:~~~~ ~~~l;:~:~ f~;e;:t~:~:;:~:i~~l~:~~:~
and verified from Block Office an.d local NGOs.
~ .. ~T ~ ~ . ~. , "' ,. . ..
laDle 1",0. ~: Impact 01 cnanglng CIlJ:natICvarlaOles
Projected
T..,., "'['I/O-!-
~""1-'~J"O
r'1;,..~.,.;~ TT~_;~hl~~~
V',.".""H'" ,"'" """VOv
I
Current I
I
1
? I
Increase I
I
I
Increase
vonnaence
Trend Trend
Temperature
T
I
I
I
1
I Both Direct and Indirect
.1 & +ve)
TT u'o..ft-,;nhl
~ '"~~' "~'J
High level of
Confidence
High level of 'R",,-.,f211 Decrease I Slight Increase I Both Direct ::tnd Indirect
I (~ve & +ve)
T;'"~.~~-~,,.-.~~~~-- ~~.i' D~~~i'~l1
...~L "'Y. """'H"Y VL ""'<4HH"'-H Decrease I
I
Increase
Uontldence
I ni .""",t
I ~~~~-~
Low level of
- - - -.
Intensity of Rain fail
LOW Decrease
- "' - n- -
I DIrect (-vel
, ,~
Low level 01
Confidence
Source: Dept. of Environment, Science & Technology, OnT-lP
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . Apri12014
59
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!
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I
I
i
I
I
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I
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S. K. Paul & A. Mitra
This study is based on primary data generated
in the field study. The key information had been
collected through various PRAtools. Matrix scoring
tool was used to understand the scenario of study
area in terms of status of economy, infrastructure,
natural resources, climatic factors and occurrence
of natural hazards. The details of information
collected through these tools are elaborated in Table
below.
The main focus of the method was to identify
the changes in climatic factors and to identify the
logic or reasons behind the changes in land use,
income pattern, cropping pattern, fodder sources
and availability and livestock holdings in the last
40 years. During the PRA exercise, 50% of the
informant (both male and female) were belonged
to age grQUP of more than 50 to 60 years and rest of
the informant were belonged to 20 to 50 years age
group. Household level survey was also done to
authenticate the findings ofthe village level study.
However, it would help in assessing the impact of
. climate change on poor and women.
Climate Change and Its Impact:
In the context of understanding the climatic
trends in Himachal Pradesh, both temperature and
precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) are the
important indicators. The present study revealed
that there is a significant increase in air
temperature and decrease in precipitation in last
two decades. As per the analysis carried on three
villages of Kullu block decreased trend of rainfall
and snowfall is observed (table number 4). It has
been observed that the change in winter
precipitation is minimal but there is a significant
decrease in monsoon precipitation. Another finding
with respect to climate of Kullu reveals that the
total precipitation and snowfall for all the season
has a decreasing trend. The study also reveals that
the season tends to end by about 10-12 days earlier
per decade causing long term impact on agriculture
and horticuiture production of the area; Number
of rainy days have been decreased with decrease
in average intensity.
The Kullu district has also experienced rainfall
in place of snowfall with increased temperature.
Ar~increase in rainfall in the pre-monsoon and post-
monsoon months with increasing incidence of hail
storm in the study area has been found. Change in
rainfall patterns with increased va.-iability increase
the incident of forest :fire, land slide, cloud burst
which leads to flood /flash flood. The changing
scenarios of natural hazards are shown in the table
number 5.
Changes in temperature and precipitation
cause direct and indirect impact on hydrological
structure as well as in the different sectors of
economy~ It has been found that decreased number
of rainy day with reduced quantity, increased gap
in rain and decreased snowfall lead to increase in
drought or dry spell and poor soil moisture quantity
which caused poor crop yield, decrease in forest and
grass land productivity and high incidence of
disease and pest attack. In village Chong, it has
found that some of the water sources were dried
resulting the increased workloaCl of women to fetch
water for the domestic use. Increased days of
hailstorm adversely affect the crop and fruit during
germination, vegetative,. flowering and fruit setting
stage lead to reduced quality and quantity of crops
and fruits and high incidence of disease infection
and pest attack. The changing climatic scenario also
affect the natural cycle of honey bees which leads
to reduction in bee colonies and thereby affecting
the cross pollination.
Adaptation and Coping Mechanism:
Climate change is any long term significant
change in the average weather wbich affects normal
flow of human activity and makes them vulnerable.
However, this vulnerability can be reduced by the
adaptations which reduce the severity of many
'ranle No. ~~1'llA tools usedand now of data
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
!.
60
Tools Information
Pie Chart Fodder source, Income sources, crop acreages, livestockJlOldings in the past and
current year
Seasonality
Income sources, fodder availability and sources, cropping pattern, key climatic
factors (rain, snow, hailstorm, temperatures), natural hazards (land slide, cloud I
burst, drought), workload of women, control and access of women to cash income I in the past and current year
Matrix scoring Impact of climatic factors and natural hazards I
Time line/trend Triangulation of above information collected through other PRA tools
i
I
S. K. Paul &it Mitra
Table no.4: Variation in Climatic Factors
Table no. 5: Changing scenario of Natural Hazards
,
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Volume 2014~15 . Number 1 . April 2014
61
--
I Climatic Variables Villages
I
Osan
Rogan Chong I
I Raiidall pattern
1}j65-71 2u10-13 1::105-71 2010-13 1965-71 2(T7v-13
I .
I
i (1 to 5 days per month) Nov, June, Nov, Jan, Oct, Jan,Sep Oct, Oct, Jan,
I
Sep, Feb, March, March, May, Feb, Jun,
I
I
April, May, May June, July, Aug,
I
I
July, Sep July Sep
I
I (6 to 10 days per month) Oct, Feb, July, Aug J an, Feb, April, Aug Nov, Dee, March,
I
May, July, Sep Sep, Oct April
I
I
Nov
I
I (10 to 15 days per month) March,
Nil
April
Nil
Jan,
Nil
I
April, Jan I
I q5 to 20 days per month)
Aug
Nil
Aug July Feb,
Nil
I
March,
I
I
April,
I
-
I Aug
I
! "
I Snowfall
.....
1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13
I
I
I (1 to 6 inch)
Nil Feb Jail March Nov
J an, Feb,
I
March
I
I (6 to 12 inch)
Nov, Jan, Nil Feb Nil
Jan, April
Nil
I
March
I
I
Oct and Nil
Feb, Nil I (1 to 2 t)
.
March N:1H
I
Feb March
I
I
I Hailstorm
..
1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13
I
I
Nil
April I (Low) May April April July
, -
! (M,.1 )
April and May and
June and June June and
April
I eU. urn
.c
I
July July July July
I
I (High) May and
June
April
Nl Nil June H
I
June
I
I Natural Hazards
Villages
I
I
Osan
Kogan Chong I
I Rainfall pattern
1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 2010-13
I Forest fireR
May and May, June,
Nil
May and
Oct and
May, June,
I -
I June
Oct, NOV Nov Nov Oct, Nov
I
I Landslides
April, May, April, June, April,June, April, Feb, Apdl,
!
June, July July, Aug, July June, March, June,
Sep July, Aug, July July,
Sep Aug
Cloud Burst
July July, Aug
Jlli'1eand
June, JUly June,
July July and July, Aug,
r
Aug Sep
I
S. K. Paul &A Mitra
impacts through the adjustment in our
environmental, sodo-economic system. In the study
area the mountain community has taken some
adaptation and coping mechanism to reduce the
adverse effects of climate change. The key findings
of the adaptive and coping mechanism are discussed
below:
. The area under traditional crops has been
decreased due to decline in rainfall and
snowfalls. Decline in rainfall have resulted into
poor soil moisture leading to poor yields.
Increased globalization, conducive government
policies and communication and transport
infrastructure have further enabled the
farming community to shift from subsistence
farming to cash crop farming. The changing
cropping pattern of the study area is gi.ven in
table number 6.
.
The table number 6 also reveals that the area
under Maize and Wheat has increased
substantially and that is due to decrease in
area of traditional subsistence crops such as
Kodra, Kauni, paddy etc. and change in dietary
habits of the local community. These two crops
also fulfill the fodder requirements oflivestock
during lean period and facilitate stall feeding
of improved livestock breeds. The surplus also
can easily be sold within the village. The trends
reveal that high incidence of farm
diversification and highly increase in the al'ea
under cash crops like vegetable, oil seeds and
spices and decrease in area under subsistence
crops. The farmers are now delaying in crop
sowing and wait for rain to sow next crop. The
use of vermi-compost and other bio fertilizer
are found in the representative villages.
.
Farmers now try their best to judiciously
allocate land to cash, subsistence and fodder
crops. Intensification of agriculture or
horticulture is practiced to fetch higher yield
and cash income from per unit area of
cultivable land. For example: orchards are also
Table no. 6: Changing scenario of Cropping Pattern (in percentage)
--
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Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014 62
Crop
I
Osan
I
Rogan
I
Chong I i I
Kharif Crop
i
1965-71 2010-13 I 1965-71 i 2010-13 i 1965-77 2010-13
I
i
I I -
Kodra
I
10% Nil
!
25%
!
Nil
r
5% Nil I I
I
!
i
Kauni
!
5% Nil
!
20%
I
Nil
!
Nil I
I
5%
i I I
Bathu I
10% Nil
I
1%
I
Nil
!
4% Nil
I J -I
Chinni
I
Nil Nil
I
Nil I Nil i 5% Nil I
i
Chakhu
i
Nil Nil I Nil
1
Nil
I
5%
I
2%
i I
Gahat 5% 5% 2%
I
2% 2% i 5% I
i
Soyabean
I
2%
I
Nil 3% I Nil I
1%
I
Nil
I
Maize 45% 45% 15%
I
40%
-
50%
I
40%
I
I
Rajma
5%
I
10% 5%
I
10% 3% i 10%
I I j
Mass 1%
I
5% 1%
I
3% 2%
I
6%
I
Paddy
!
3%
I
5% 5%
I
2% 10%
I
20%
i I
!
Tit
I
1%
I
1% 1%
I
Nil 1% I 2%
I
Amaranthus
I
Nil i
Nil
!
Nil 2% ! 5% 1%
I
Vegetable
4% I 25% 2% 40% 5%
I
25%
I
Rabi Crops
1965-71
I 2010-13
1965-71 2010-13 1965-71 I 2010-13
Wheat 50% ' 60% 20% 70% 50%
I
40%
,
Barley
20%
I
5% 60% 1% 20%
I
5%
I
1
Vegetables
Nil
!
20% 2% 25% 5% 37%
I
Mustard 10% I 5% 10% 4% 15%
I
10%
Black gram
10%
I
5% 2% Nil 5% 3%
I
Masoor 10%
I
5% 6% Nil 5% 5%
S. K. Paul &A. Mitra
used for cultivation of subsistence/fodder and
cash crops, the tomato fields used for creepers
crops such as Rajma, pumpkin, cucumber and
wheat intercropped with lentil, black gram and
Mustard. Farmers are cultivating higher
number of crops (casbJfodderlsubsistence) to
fulfill their cash/food security and livestock
needs as well as to diversify the risk in cash
crop economy. Farmers are shifting from late
maturity crops towttrds low maturity crops
that have low maturity period. The cropping
pattern has been evolved in such a manner
that the crops provide cash income throughout
the year. The livestock holding size of the
households have decreased in numbers and
shifted from goat and sheep towards improved
breed of milk cattle. The fodder dependency
has increased on agriculture and horticulture
. land than~the forest and grass land. The
farmers are now earniItg from the milk and
milk products. The changing flow of income is
shown in ta\le number 7.
.
Apple still occupies 20 to 50 per cent of total
orchard area because it has longer shelf life -
30 to 40 days and fetches higher returns as
\vell as better yield. The Government also
provides Minimum support price. However,
reduction in area of orchards as well as shift
from Apple to Pear, Peach etc. also found in
the study area.
.
The increase in number of cash crops has
substantiaUy increased the workload of women
in agriculture and horticulture sector.
However, many attempts have been made to
reduce the workload of women by allocating
cultivable land to crops that provide green or
dry matter and now they have better control
and access to cash income from farm based
intervention.
Conclusion:
The present study has highlighted certain
changes in climatic variables, their impact on the
hydrological and socio economic structure of the
Kullu block. The climate change has made the area
vulnerable~ However, the solution of this problem
is being generated by combining farmers' ingenuity,
new technologies and several trial-and-error
efforts. The local communities have evolved some
adaptation and coping mechanism to deal. with
these adverse effects of climate change to some
extent. The innovative farmers of Kullu have shown
the way by converting threat into opportunity by
judicial utilization oflocal resources and low inputs.
But still, there is a need of proper adaptation
strategy for reducing the vulnerability of climate
change. Based on the above study following
mitigation intervention can be made for better
adaptation and coping mechanism in the study
area.
.
Soil moisture can be enhanced by low cost
irrigation facilities through rain water
harvesting structure using drip and sprinkler
systems and soil and water conservation
measures on private and common land. Spring
sanctuary should be development in selected
sites to revive drying springs and water
sources.
Action research should be done on organic
composting and manuring techniques such as
vermicomposting, NADEP composts,
traditional composts and mulching methods.
Action research should be done on Bio-mass
based pesticides and fertilizers-cow urine amI
aromatic herbs..
Strengthen cash crop economy by introducing
cash crops that fetch higher returns and
demand low investments.
Action research should be done on hail nets
and anti-hail guns to reduce the adverse
.
.
.
.
Table no. 7: Changingflow of income (in percentage)
Volume 2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
63
Osan
Rogan
I
Chong i
Income Source 1965-71 :t01O-13
1965-71 I 2010-13 I 1965-71
I 2010-13
Fruit Nil 35% 55% I 30%
I
Nil
I
50% I I
Vegetables
Nil Nil
I
I
28% 50% I 10%
i
30%
Cereals 60% 15% 10%
I
3%
i
20%
I
5%
I
I I
Pulses 30% 10% 20%
I
10%
I
50%
!
5% I I
Oilseeds 10% 5% 5%
I
Nil 10%
!
Nil
I !
Spices
Nil 5% Nil
I
5%
I
5%
I
2%
I I I
Milk & milk products
Nil 2% 2%
I
10% I 5%
I
8%
I
-
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S. K. Paul & _4..Mitra
.
impact of hailstorm.
Promotion activities of fodder on private and
common lands-grasses. Shrubs and fast
growing tree fodder species should be
complimented with appropriate soil & water
conservation measures.
Preservation of fodder and promotion of anti-
wastage technique such as silage, fodder stall
and Chaff cutter for reduce the wastage of
fodder. .
Government programmes like MGNREGA
should be implemented properly. It can be used
extensively for development of horticulture
and fodder.
.
.
Bibliography
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IPCC- Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
Asian Development Bank; 2010: Climate
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Sustainable Strategies for Water Resource,
India .
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Pradesh; 2012: State Strategy and Adaptation
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and Strategy 2005, Shimla.
Government of Himachal Pradesh, Department of
Environment, Science, and Technology; 2009:
State of the Environment Report, Shimla.
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Environment, Science, and Technology; 2009:
State of the Environment Report. Shimla, in
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Technology and Environment and HP State
Pollution Board.
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R. K. Mall, AlLl:1ilesh Gupta, Ranjeet Singh, R. S.
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Thakur, D.S; Sanjay; Thakur, D. R. and Sharma,
K D. (1994). Economics of off-season Vege-
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University of California December
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
64
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