Start here Ratings sheet

Output
Entercurrentlongtermgovernmentbondrate=
EstimatedBondRating=
EstimatedDefaultSpread=
EstimatedCostofDebt=

2.25%
AA
0.70%
2.95%

2.35%

Ifyouwanttoupdatethespreadslistedbelow,pleasevisithttp://www.bondsonline.com
Forlargemanufacturingfirms
Ifinterestcoverageratiois
>
to
Ratingis
Spreadis
100000
0.199999
D
12.00%
0.2
0.649999
C
10.50%
0.65
0.799999
CC
9.50%
0.8
1.249999
CCC
8.75%
1.25
1.499999
B
7.25%
1.5
1.749999
B
6.50%
1.75
1.999999
B+
5.50%
2
2.2499999
BB
4.00%
2.25
2.49999
BB+
3.00%
2.5
2.999999
BBB
2.00%
3
4.249999
A
1.30%
4.25
5.499999
A
1.00%
5.5
6.499999
A+
0.85%
6.5
8.499999
AA
0.70%
8.50
100000
AAA
0.40%

Page 1

Cost Of Capital

Cost of Debt
rf 10year
spread
rating
rd

2.35%

Cost of Equity
CAPM
rf
beta
rm

0.59% CAPM Yearly

0.29%
1.1198667878
0.56%

WACC
wd
we
tax
WACC

Wd*Rd*(1-T)+We*Re
0.80%
99.20%
35%
7.26%

# shares
Price
Market Value of Equity

678.36
$550.00
$ 373,098.00

Other Current Liabilities

LD

$630
$2,390

market value of interest bearing debt

FV
i
n
A = interest expense

Total Market Value of Debt

Page 2

7.31%

Wd*Rd*(1-T)+We*Re

Exhibit TN1
Google' Ratio Analysis and Forecast of Free

1
At Closing
EBIT
EBIT(1-t)
Plus: Depreciation
Minus: CAPX
Minus: NWC
Free Cash Flow
Discount Factor

PV(FCF)

2011

2012

12,326
8,012
1851
-3438
-3234
3,191

13,386
8,701
2962
-3273
-2703
5,687

0.9323

0.8692

2,974.96

4,943.23

Terminal
Values

Stable
g = 0%

Growing
g = 2%

Sum PV(FCF)

18,786

18,786

TV
PV(TV)

89,909
63,334

126,585
89,170

Total Enterpr

82,121

107,956

Market value
Value of Equit

0
82,121

0
107,956

Net Present

82,121

107956

Rate
Growth

0.0726
0.0600

Exhibit TN1
Google' Ratio Analysis and Forecast of Free Cash Flows

3
2013

4
2014 Projection

14,496
9,422
3939
-7358
-3747
2,256

16,091
10,459
4827
(5,530)
(3,876.67)
5,879

5
2015Projection
17,861
11,609 (PULL Over)
5358
(6,138) (fixed Assets)
(4,303.10) (Ar+Inv-AP)
6,526

0.8104

0.7556

0.7044

1,828.60

4,442.30

4,597.25

Growing
g = 4%

g = 6%

18,786

18,786

208,281
146,719

549,595
387,150

165,505

405,937

0
165,505

0
405,937

165,505

405,937

Sensitivity Analysis

405,937
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%

0.04
#DIV/0!
-542,505
-263,574
-170,597
-124,108
-96,215
-77,619

0.05
551,896
#DIV/0!
-521,929
-253,473
-163,988
-119,245
-92,399

0.06
273,092
531,560
#DIV/0!
-502,313
-243,845
-157,689
-114,611

Assumptions

Tax

0.35

2011
EBIT growth
Depreciation

2012

2013

9%
15%

8%
22%

11%
27%

CAPX

-28%

-24%

-51%

NWC

-26.2%

-20.2%

-25.8%

14,496,000

13,386,000

12,326,000

3,939,000

2,962,000

1,851,000

-7,358,000

-3,273,000

-3,438,000

Changes In Accounts Receivables

Changes In Liabilities
Changes In Inventories

-1,307,000
2,206,000
-234,000

-3747

-787,000
2,217,000
301,000

-2703

0.07
165,437
232,362
405,515
1,910,616
-652,124
-269,186
-165,764

0.08
133,867
173,841
253,791
493,639
#DIV/0!
-465,753
-225,905

$
$
$
$
$
$

0.09
106,088.07
129,204.72
167,732.46
244,787.94
475,954.38
#DIV/0!
(448,711.39)

1) What if analysis
2) Data Tables
3) Highlight highs

Projection Projection
2014
2015
11%
11%
30%
30%
-34.4%

-34.4%

-24%

-24%

-1,156,000
2,048,000
-30,000

-3234

A
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS MODEL

Note: Enter data in Blue-coded cells; Black cells are computer generated
ANALYST'S NAME
NAME OF COMPANY

FIRST CALENDAR YEAR OF DATA

NUMBER OF YEARS OF DATA

INCOME STATEMENT
Sales Revenue
Less: Cost of Goods Sold
Gross Profits
Less: Operating Expenses:
Selling/General/Admin Exp
Research & Development
Lease Expense
Depreciation Expense
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Less: Interest Expense/ Gain(Loss) from
sale of Assets/ Other
Net Profits Before Taxes
Less: Taxes
Net Profit After Taxes
Less: Pref. Stock Divds.
Earnings Available for Common
Stockholders

BALANCE SHEET
Current Assets:
Cash
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Prepaid Expenses/Other
Total Current Assets
Gross Fixed Assets (at cost):
PPOE
Goodwill
Intangibles
Long Term Investments
Other (Inc. Fin. Leases)
Total Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Accumulated Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable
Notes Payable
Accruals
Taxes Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
L / T Debt (Inc. Financial Leases)
Total Liabilities
Treasury Stock/ Other
Common Stock
Paid-In Capital In Excess of Par
Retained Earnings
Total Stockholders' Equity
Total Liabs. & Stockhldrs' Equity
Reconciliation TA & TL/SE
Number of Common Shares
End-of-Year Stock Price

Nick Serpico
Google

2011
3

2011
$4,984
$1,587
$3,397

2012
$4,987
$1,621
$3,366

2013
$4,680
$1,349
$3,331

$1,619
$919
$24
$34
$2,597
$800

$1,642
$886
$236
$36
$2,800
$566

$1,700
$1,008
($13)
$45
$2,741
$590

($27)
$827
$242
$586
($463)

($4,647)
$5,214
$1,940
$3,273
($671)

($43)
$633
$153
$480
($886)

$1,049

$3,945

$1,366

IF($B$8>4,F26-F27," ")

$1,562
$493
$1,043
$354
$3,453

$2,668
$1,516
$1,050
$419
$5,653

$2,078
$1,330
$1,017
$601
$5,026

=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F33:F36)," ")

$3,403
$3,901
$255
$5,255
$189
$13,002
$1,672
$11,330

$3,951
$3,827
$154
$5,522
$262
$13,716
$2,265
$11,451

$3,612
$4,680
$418
$5,041
$152
$13,902
$2,124
$11,779

$14,783

$17,103

$16,805

=IF($B$8>4,F37+F46," ")

2011
$167
$0
$833
$0
$207
$1,207
$1,037
$2,245
$289
$1
$9,826
$2,432
$12,549
$14,793
$11
1,217
$580.11

2012
$185
$0
$767
$0
$338
$1,290
$1,253
$2,543
($806)
$1
$9,563
$5,792
$14,551
$17,094
($9)
1,115
$755.69

2013
$138
$0
$572
$0
$630
$1,340
$2,390
$3,730
$102
$1
$8,688
$4,267
$13,058
$16,788
($16)
1,014
$1,180.97

=IF($B$8>4,F37+F46," ")

=IF($B$8>4,F13-F14," ")

=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F17:F20)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F15-F21," ")

=IF($B$8>4,F22-F23," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F24-F25," ")

=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F39:F43)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F44-F45," ")

=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F51:F55)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F56+F57," ")

=IF($B$8>4,SUM(F59:F62)," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F58+F63," ")
=IF($B$8>4,F64-F48," ")

A
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109

RATIO ANALYSIS
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Average Collection Period
Fixed Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Debt Ratio
Debt-to-Equity
Times Interest Earned
Gross Profit Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin

2.86
2.86

4.38
4.38

3.75
3.75

76.36
0.44
0.34

76.87
0.44
0.29

79.31
0.40
0.28

7.02%
7.33%
8.27%
8.61%
EBIT/interest expense

14.22%
18.30%

68.16%
16.06%
21.04%

67.50%
11.36%
79.11%

71.17%
12.60%
29.18%

Return on Total Assets (ROA)

Return on Equity (ROE)

7.09%
8.36%

23.06%
27.11%

8.13%
10.46%

Earnings Per Share

$0.86

$3.54

$1.35

Price/Earnings Ratio

673.51

213.64

877.00

2012
$3,273
$36
($7)
($64)
$0
$18
($66)
$0
$131
$3,320

2013
$480
$45
$33
($182)
$0
($47)
($195)
$0
$292
$425

($714)
($714)

($187)
($187)

$0
$215
($1,358)
$671

$0
$1,137
$32
$886

($471)

$2,056

$2,136

$2,294

STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING
ACTIVITIES
Net Profit After Taxes
Depreciation
Decrease in Accts. Receiv.
Decrease in Inventories
Decrease in Other Assets
Increase in Accounts Pay.
Increase in Accruals
Increase in Taxes Payable
Increase in Other Cur. Lia.
Cash Flow from Oper. Act.

CASH FLOW FROM INVESTMENT

ACTIVITIES
111 Increase in Gross Fixed Assets
112 Cash Flow from Investments
113
CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING
114
ACTIVITIES
115 Increase in Notes Payable
116 Increase in Long-Term Debt
117 Changes in Stockholders' Equity
118 Preferred Dividends Paid
119 Common Dividends Paid (-)

2011

110

120

Cash Flow from Financing Activities

121
122 Net Incr. in Cash / Mark. Securities

google

Date
Adj Close
8/19/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/3/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/2/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/3/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/3/2006
2/1/2006
3/1/2006
4/3/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/3/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/2/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/3/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/2/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/2/2007
8/1/2007
9/4/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/3/2007
1/2/2008
2/1/2008
3/3/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/2/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008
9/2/2008
10/1/2008
11/3/2008
12/1/2008

HPR
51.24
64.86
95.42
91.08
96.49
97.91
94.09
90.35
110.11
138.77
147.22
144.02
143.14
158.39
186.26
202.66
207.64
216.55
181.49
195.2
209.18
186.1
209.87
193.49
189.45
201.15
238.43
242.65
230.47
251
224.95
229.31
235.93
249.2
261.61
255.26
257.88
283.92
353.85
346.85
346.09
282.43
235.83
220.46
287.43
293.19
263.47
237.11
231.88
200.46
179.86
146.63
153.98

27%
47%
-5%
6%
1%
-4%
-4%
22%
26%
6%
-2%
-1%
11%
18%
9%
2%
4%
-16%
8%
7%
-11%
13%
-8%
-2%
6%
19%
2%
-5%
9%
-10%
2%
3%
6%
5%
-2%
1%
10%
25%
-2%
0%
-18%
-16%
-7%
30%
2%
-10%
-10%
-2%
-14%
-10%
-18%
5%

Page 13

google

1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013

169.43
169.16
174.2
198.18
208.82
211.01
221.75
231.07
248.17
268.33
291.79
310.3
265.24
263.66
283.84
263.11
243.06
222.7
242.67
225.24
263.16
307.16
278.13
297.28
300.48
307.01
293.67
272.32
264.77
253.44
302.15
270.75
257.78
296.62
299.99
323.27
290.35
309.43
320.94
302.73
290.72
290.33
316.8
342.89
377.63
340.49
349.53
354.04
378.22
401
397.49
412.7
436.05
440.63

10%
0%
3%
14%
5%
1%
5%
4%
7%
8%
9%
6%
-15%
-1%
8%
-7%
-8%
-8%
9%
-7%
17%
17%
-9%
7%
1%
2%
-4%
-7%
-3%
-4%
19%
-10%
-5%
15%
1%
8%
-10%
7%
4%
-6%
-4%
0%
9%
8%
10%
-10%
3%
1%
7%
6%
-1%
4%
6%
1%

Page 14

google

7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013

444.32
423.87
438.39
515.81
530.33
560.92

mean
sd
Count
Standard Error
RF
Proability of losing money

1%
-5%
3%
18%
3%
6%

3%
11%
112
1.00%
0.29%
#MACRO?

Page 15

RF

Date
Adj Close
%
8/2/2004
4.13 4.13%
9/1/2004
4.12 4.12%
10/1/2004
4.03 4.03%
11/1/2004
4.36 4.36%
12/1/2004
4.22 4.22%
1/3/2005
4.13 4.13%
2/1/2005
4.36 4.36%
3/1/2005
4.5 4.5%
4/1/2005
4.2 4.2%
5/2/2005
4.01 4.01%
6/1/2005
3.94 3.94%
7/1/2005
4.29 4.29%
8/1/2005
4.02 4.02%
9/1/2005
4.33 4.33%
10/3/2005
4.56 4.56%
11/1/2005
4.5 4.5%
12/1/2005
4.39 4.39%
1/3/2006
4.53 4.53%
2/1/2006
4.55 4.55%
3/1/2006
4.85 4.85%
4/3/2006
5.07 5.07%
5/1/2006
5.11 5.11%
6/1/2006
5.14 5.14%
7/3/2006
4.99 4.99%
8/1/2006
4.73 4.73%
9/1/2006
4.63 4.63%
10/2/2006
4.61 4.61%
11/1/2006
4.46 4.46%
12/1/2006
4.71 4.71%
1/3/2007
4.83 4.83%
2/1/2007
4.55 4.55%
3/1/2007
4.65 4.65%
4/2/2007
4.63 4.63%
5/1/2007
4.89 4.89%
6/1/2007
5.03 5.03%
7/2/2007
4.77 4.77%
8/1/2007
4.54 4.54%
9/4/2007
4.58 4.58%
10/1/2007
4.47 4.47%
11/1/2007
3.97 3.97%
12/3/2007
4.03 4.03%
1/2/2008
3.64 3.64%
2/1/2008
3.53 3.53%
3/3/2008
3.43 3.43%
4/1/2008
3.76 3.76%
5/1/2008
4.05 4.05%
6/2/2008
3.98 3.98%
7/1/2008
3.98 3.98%
8/1/2008
3.81 3.81%
9/2/2008
3.83 3.83%
10/1/2008
3.97 3.97%
11/3/2008
2.96 2.96%
12/1/2008
2.24 2.24%

12
0.34%
0.34%
0.34%
0.36%
0.35%
0.34%
0.36%
0.38%
0.35%
0.33%
0.33%
0.36%
0.34%
0.36%
0.38%
0.38%
0.37%
0.38%
0.38%
0.40%
0.42%
0.43%
0.43%
0.42%
0.39%
0.39%
0.38%
0.37%
0.39%
0.40%
0.38%
0.39%
0.39%
0.41%
0.42%
0.40%
0.38%
0.38%
0.37%
0.33%
0.34%
0.30%
0.29%
0.29%
0.31%
0.34%
0.33%
0.33%
0.32%
0.32%
0.33%
0.25%
0.19%

Page 16

RF

1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013

2.84
3.04
2.68
3.12
3.46
3.52
3.5
3.4
3.31
3.39
3.2
3.84
3.61
3.6
3.83
3.66
3.3
2.95
2.91
2.48
2.52
2.61
2.8
3.31
3.38
3.41
3.45
3.3
3.05
3.16
2.81
2.22
1.92
2.17
2.07
1.87
1.8
1.98
2.22
1.91
1.58
1.66
1.49
1.56
1.64
1.69
1.61
1.76
1.99
1.89
1.85
1.67
2.16
2.48

2.84%
3.04%
2.68%
3.12%
3.46%
3.52%
3.5%
3.4%
3.31%
3.39%
3.2%
3.84%
3.61%
3.6%
3.83%
3.66%
3.3%
2.95%
2.91%
2.48%
2.52%
2.61%
2.8%
3.31%
3.38%
3.41%
3.45%
3.3%
3.05%
3.16%
2.81%
2.22%
1.92%
2.17%
2.07%
1.87%
1.8%
1.98%
2.22%
1.91%
1.58%
1.66%
1.49%
1.56%
1.64%
1.69%
1.61%
1.76%
1.99%
1.89%
1.85%
1.67%
2.16%
2.48%

0.24%
0.25%
0.22%
0.26%
0.29%
0.29%
0.29%
0.28%
0.28%
0.28%
0.27%
0.32%
0.30%
0.30%
0.32%
0.31%
0.28%
0.25%
0.24%
0.21%
0.21%
0.22%
0.23%
0.28%
0.28%
0.28%
0.29%
0.28%
0.25%
0.26%
0.23%
0.19%
0.16%
0.18%
0.17%
0.16%
0.15%
0.17%
0.19%
0.16%
0.13%
0.14%
0.12%
0.13%
0.14%
0.14%
0.13%
0.15%
0.17%
0.16%
0.15%
0.14%
0.18%
0.21%

Page 17

RF

7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013

2.59
2.75
2.62
2.54
2.74
3.03

2.59%
2.75%
2.62%
2.54%
2.74%
3.03%

0.22%
0.23%
0.22%
0.21%
0.23%
0.25%

Average

0.29%

Page 18

S&P

Date
Adj Close
HPR
8/2/2004
1104.24
9/1/2004
1114.58
0.94%
10/1/2004
1130.2
1.40%
11/1/2004
1173.82
3.86%
12/1/2004
1211.92
3.25%
1/3/2005
1181.27
-2.53%
2/1/2005
1203.6
1.89%
3/1/2005
1180.59
-1.91%
4/1/2005
1156.85
-2.01%
5/2/2005
1191.5
3.00%
6/1/2005
1191.33
-0.01%
7/1/2005
1234.18
3.60%
8/1/2005
1220.33
-1.12%
9/1/2005
1228.81
0.69%
10/3/2005
1207.01
-1.77%
11/1/2005
1249.48
3.52%
12/1/2005
1248.29
-0.10%
1/3/2006
1280.08
2.55%
2/1/2006
1280.66
0.05%
3/1/2006
1294.87
1.11%
4/3/2006
1310.61
1.22%
5/1/2006
1270.09
-3.09%
6/1/2006
1270.2
0.01%
7/3/2006
1276.66
0.51%
8/1/2006
1303.82
2.13%
9/1/2006
1335.85
2.46%
10/2/2006
1377.94
3.15%
11/1/2006
1400.63
1.65%
12/1/2006
1418.3
1.26%
1/3/2007
1438.24
1.41%
2/1/2007
1406.82
-2.18%
3/1/2007
1420.86
1.00%
4/2/2007
1482.37
4.33%
5/1/2007
1530.62
3.25%
6/1/2007
1503.35
-1.78%
7/2/2007
1455.27
-3.20%
8/1/2007
1473.99
1.29%
9/4/2007
1526.75
3.58%
10/1/2007
1549.38
1.48%
11/1/2007
1481.14
-4.40%
12/3/2007
1468.36
-0.86%
1/2/2008
1378.55
-6.12%
2/1/2008
1330.63
-3.48%
3/3/2008
1322.7
-0.60%
4/1/2008
1385.59
4.75%
5/1/2008
1400.38
1.07%
6/2/2008
1280
-8.60%
7/1/2008
1267.38
-0.99%
8/1/2008
1282.83
1.22%
9/2/2008
1166.36
-9.08%
10/1/2008
968.75
-16.94%
11/3/2008
896.24
-7.48%
12/1/2008
903.25
0.78%

Page 19

S&P

1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012
11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013

825.88
735.09
797.87
872.81
919.14
919.32
987.48
1020.62
1057.08
1036.19
1095.63
1115.1
1073.87
1104.49
1169.43
1186.69
1089.41
1030.71
1101.6
1049.33
1141.2
1183.26
1180.55
1257.64
1286.12
1327.22
1325.83
1363.61
1345.2
1320.64
1292.28
1218.89
1131.42
1253.3
1246.96
1257.6
1312.41
1365.68
1408.47
1397.91
1310.33
1362.16
1379.32
1406.58
1440.67
1412.16
1416.18
1426.19
1498.11
1514.68
1569.19
1597.57
1630.74
1606.28

-8.57%
-10.99%
8.54%
9.39%
5.31%
0.02%
7.41%
3.36%
3.57%
-1.98%
5.74%
1.78%
-3.70%
2.85%
5.88%
1.48%
-8.20%
-5.39%
6.88%
-4.74%
8.76%
3.69%
-0.23%
6.53%
2.26%
3.20%
-0.10%
2.85%
-1.35%
-1.83%
-2.15%
-5.68%
-7.18%
10.77%
-0.51%
0.85%
4.36%
4.06%
3.13%
-0.75%
-6.27%
3.96%
1.26%
1.98%
2.42%
-1.98%
0.28%
0.71%
5.04%
1.11%
3.60%
1.81%
2.08%
-1.50%

Page 20

S&P

7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013

1685.73
1632.97
1681.55
1756.54
1805.81
1848.36
Average

4.95%
-3.13%
2.97%
4.46%
2.80%
2.36%
0.56%

Page 21

regression

Google

RF

S&P-rf
0.59%
1.07%
3.50%
2.89%
-2.87%
1.53%
-2.29%
-2.36%
2.66%
-0.34%
3.24%
-1.46%
0.33%
-2.15%
3.14%
-0.46%
2.17%
-0.33%
0.71%
0.79%
-3.52%
-0.42%
0.09%
1.73%
2.07%
2.77%
1.27%
0.87%
1.00%
-2.56%
0.61%
3.94%
2.85%
-2.20%
-3.60%
0.91%
3.20%
1.11%
-4.74%
-1.20%
-6.42%
-3.77%
-0.88%
4.44%
0.73%
-8.93%
-1.32%
0.90%

Page 22

Google-rf
26.24%
46.78%
-4.91%
5.59%
1.13%
-4.26%
-4.35%
21.52%
25.69%
5.76%
-2.53%
-0.95%
10.29%
17.22%
8.43%
2.09%
3.91%
-16.57%
7.15%
6.74%
-11.46%
12.34%
-8.22%
-2.48%
5.79%
18.15%
1.40%
-5.41%
8.51%
-10.76%
1.55%
2.50%
5.22%
4.56%
-2.82%
0.65%
9.72%
24.26%
-2.31%
-0.55%
-18.70%
-16.79%
-6.80%
30.06%
1.67%
-10.47%
-10.34%
-2.52%

Residuals

Date
S&P
8/2/2004
9/1/2004
10/1/2004
11/1/2004
12/1/2004
1/3/2005
2/1/2005
3/1/2005
4/1/2005
5/2/2005
6/1/2005
7/1/2005
8/1/2005
9/1/2005
10/3/2005
11/1/2005
12/1/2005
1/3/2006
2/1/2006
3/1/2006
4/3/2006
5/1/2006
6/1/2006
7/3/2006
8/1/2006
9/1/2006
10/2/2006
11/1/2006
12/1/2006
1/3/2007
2/1/2007
3/1/2007
4/2/2007
5/1/2007
6/1/2007
7/2/2007
8/1/2007
9/4/2007
10/1/2007
11/1/2007
12/3/2007
1/2/2008
2/1/2008
3/3/2008
4/1/2008
5/1/2008
6/2/2008
7/1/2008
8/1/2008

-20.00%

-15.00%

regression

9/2/2008
10/1/2008
11/3/2008
12/1/2008
1/2/2009
2/2/2009
3/2/2009
4/1/2009
5/1/2009
6/1/2009
7/1/2009
8/3/2009
9/1/2009
10/1/2009
11/2/2009
12/1/2009
1/4/2010
2/1/2010
3/1/2010
4/1/2010
5/3/2010
6/1/2010
7/1/2010
8/2/2010
9/1/2010
10/1/2010
11/1/2010
12/1/2010
1/3/2011
2/1/2011
3/1/2011
4/1/2011
5/2/2011
6/1/2011
7/1/2011
8/1/2011
9/1/2011
10/3/2011
11/1/2011
12/1/2011
1/3/2012
2/1/2012
3/1/2012
4/2/2012
5/1/2012
6/1/2012
7/2/2012
8/1/2012
9/4/2012
10/1/2012

-9.40%
-17.27%
-7.73%
0.60%
-8.80%
-11.25%
8.32%
9.13%
5.02%
-0.27%
7.12%
3.07%
3.30%
-2.26%
5.47%
1.46%
-4.00%
2.55%
5.56%
1.17%
-8.47%
-5.63%
6.64%
-4.95%
8.55%
3.47%
-0.46%
6.25%
1.98%
2.91%
-0.39%
2.57%
-1.60%
-2.09%
-2.38%
-5.86%
-7.34%
10.59%
-0.68%
0.70%
4.21%
3.89%
2.95%
-0.91%
-6.40%
3.82%
1.14%
1.85%
2.29%
-2.12%

Page 23

-13.87%
-10.61%
-18.72%
4.83%
9.80%
-0.41%
2.76%
13.51%
5.08%
0.76%
4.80%
3.92%
7.12%
7.84%
8.48%
6.02%
-14.82%
-0.90%
7.33%
-7.61%
-7.90%
-8.62%
8.72%
-7.39%
16.63%
16.50%
-9.68%
6.61%
0.79%
1.89%
-4.63%
-7.55%
-3.03%
-4.54%
18.99%
-10.58%
-4.95%
14.89%
0.96%
7.60%
-10.33%
6.41%
3.53%
-5.83%
-4.10%
-0.27%
8.99%
8.11%
9.99%
-9.98%

regression

11/1/2012
12/3/2012
1/2/2013
2/1/2013
3/1/2013
4/1/2013
5/1/2013
6/3/2013
7/1/2013
8/1/2013
9/3/2013
10/1/2013
11/1/2013
12/2/2013
12/2/2013

0.15%
0.56%
4.88%
0.95%
3.44%
1.67%
1.90%
-1.71%
4.73%
-3.36%
2.76%
4.25%
2.58%
2.10%
0.00%

Page 24

2.52%
1.14%
6.66%
5.87%
-1.03%
3.69%
5.48%
0.84%
0.62%
-4.83%
3.21%
17.45%
2.59%
5.52%
0.00%

Residuals

regression

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

Y

0.5

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

0
-5.00%
0.00%
X Variable 1
-0.5

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

-20.00% -15.00%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.4617210549
R Square
0.2131863325
Adjusted R Square
0.2060979211
Standard Error
0.0935778989
Observations
113
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
111
112
Coefficients
0.0206915757
1.1198667878

Intercept
X Variable 1

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Page 25

Predicted Y
0.0273330275
0.0326247801
0.0598439167
0.0531021572
-0.011484565
0.0377919979
-0.004917143
-0.0057469
0.0504916321
0.0168549002
0.0569676486
0.0043728478
0.0244326102
-0.003431185

regression

15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64

Page 26

0.0558958436
0.0155281728
0.0449835454
0.0169528221
0.0285913115
0.0295728589
-0.018700001
0.0159918024
0.0217302297
0.0401017742
0.0438817113
0.0516742156
0.0349698133
0.0304240597
0.031928414
-0.008019358
0.0275283118
0.0648505546
0.0525789186
-0.003954426
-0.01957537
0.0308602562
0.0565019307
0.0331191126
-0.032336084
0.0072679316
-0.051200298
-0.02153057
0.010816684
0.070428613
0.028865655
-0.079289065
0.0059361643
0.0307877384
-0.084556999
-0.172746226
-0.065891708
0.0273602693
-0.077883595
-0.105253748
0.1138322122
0.1229634947
0.0769067532
0.0176259425
0.1004541888
0.0551015434
0.0576080409
-0.00460284
0.0819452993
0.0370087042

regression

65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113

Page 27

-0.024083605
0.0492635137
0.0829614335
0.0338044623
-0.074190164
-0.042402514
0.0949979094
-0.034759559
0.1163854291
0.0595296098
0.0155137416
0.0907299917
0.0428973286
0.0532964031
0.0162991201
0.0495229467
0.0027260071
-0.002703384
-0.005979287
-0.044978642
-0.061464106
0.1393019361
0.0130947968
0.0285019951
0.0678189468
0.0642985724
0.05370791
0.0105129229
-0.050943322
0.0634386693
0.033408752
0.0413680812
0.0463022838
-0.003047066
0.0223770158
0.0269646706
0.0753071769
0.0313141875
0.0592666557
0.0393867409
0.0419273671
0.0015799379
0.0736655055
-0.016924391
0.0515619821
0.0682625014
0.0495462062
0.0442511465
0.0206915757

regression

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

1

0.5

0
-20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00%
0.00%
X Variable
1
-0.5

Y
5.00%

SS
MS
F
0.263364371 0.263364371 30.075332809
0.97200737 0.008756823
1.235371741
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
0.008820293
2.34590573 0.0207561027
0.204202542 5.484098176 0.000000264

10.00%

15.00%

Significance F
0.000000264

Lower 95%
Upper 95% Lower 95.0%
0.0032135765 0.038169575 0.003213576
0.715225819 1.524507757 0.715225819

Residuals
0.235041602
0.435185558
-0.10896038
0.002779507
0.02275945
-0.08044075
-0.03858203
0.220951936
0.206451871
0.04075389
-0.08227883
-0.01383311
0.078498109
0.175589263

Page 28

regression

0.02840312
0.005386671
-0.00584774
-0.18264705
0.042908374
0.037820994
-0.09589393
0.107451893
-0.10393688
-0.06492307
0.014017675
0.129818445
-0.02098736
-0.08454481
0.053125425
-0.09955717
-0.01202123
-0.03983967
-0.00040842
0.049562117
-0.0086724
-0.02437955
0.040658601
0.209457663
0.009245357
-0.01281741
-0.13577363
-0.14640773
-0.07884908
0.230211981
-0.01220099
-0.02539532
-0.10930217
-0.05602001
-0.05413579
0.066674249
-0.12132977
0.020899232
0.175854635
0.101126836
-0.08627127
0.01209437
-0.02610152
-0.01007177
-0.05247279
-0.01590556
0.013637174
0.083012477
0.002817692
0.023227329

Page 29

regression

-0.12413904
-0.05822038
-0.00961513
-0.10988857
-0.00476371
-0.04382114
-0.0077507
-0.03913304
0.049868327
0.105494053
-0.11235808
-0.02463563
-0.03494973
-0.03440617
-0.06262547
-0.1249736
-0.03299241
-0.04272181
0.195833012
-0.06079325
0.011960136
0.009560845
-0.00345846
0.047542258
-0.17115333
-0.00023478
-0.01836048
-0.06884417
0.00995434
-0.0661635
0.056521696
0.039686717
0.05364634
-0.0967115
0.00283129
-0.0155283
-0.00866814
0.027340309
-0.06956144
-0.00251329
0.012851261
0.006856778
-0.06744947
-0.03139266
-0.01948953
0.106221576
-0.02367964
0.01090492
-0.02069158

Page 30

regression

Upper 95.0%
0.038169575
1.524507757

Page 31

regression

Page 32

regression

Page 33

Sheet13

1.25% Notes
due on
May 19, 2014

Capital Lease
Obligation
Total

1,000

Long-Term
Debt
1.25% Notes
due on
May 19, 2014
2.125% Notes
due on
May 19, 2016

1,000

1,000

3.625% Notes
due on
May 19, 2021

1,000

1,000

Unamortized
discount for
the Notes
above
Subtotal

(12 )

(10

2,988

1,990

Page 34

Sheet13

1,000

33%
33%

1.25%
2.13%

0.412500%
0.701250%

34%

3.63%

1.232500%
2.346250%

1,009

1,000

1,000

(10 )

1,990

Page 35