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sharekhan special
sharekhan special

monthly economy review

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July 26, 2012

Monthly economy review

Economy: industrial growth remains subdued; inflation remains above RBI’s comfort zone

In May 2012 the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 2.4% after remaining in the negative territory in the previous two months. The higher than expected growth for the month was led by a 2.5% growth in the manufacturing sector and a 5.9% growth in the electricity sector. The April 2012 IIP numbers have been revised downwards to -0.9% from 0.1%. For year-till-date (YTD) FY2013, the IIP growth stood at 0.8% vs 8.2% in the previous year.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation for June 2012 came in at 7.25% as against 7.55% in May 2012. The same was slightly below the market’s expectation. However, the inflation rate for April 2012 has been revised upwards sharply to 7.5% from the provisional figure of 7.23% led by an upward revision in the fuel segment.

The trade deficit for June 2012 came in at $10.3 billion, lower than the trade deficit recorded in May 2012. The trade deficit declined by 27% year on year (YoY). The growth in the exports remained weak showing a decline of 13.5% YoY (down 4.2% in May 2012). The imports saw a decline of 5.5% YoY (as against a decline of 7.4% in May 2012).

Banking: Government policy action remains key to RBI action

Though in the forthcoming policy meet on July 31, 2012 the market’s expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not significant, but if the government takes any major action on the diesel pricing

front the RBI may surprise with a 25-basis-point reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR)/repo rates.

The credit offtake registered a growth of 17.7% YoY (as on July 13, 2012), which was in line with the growth recorded in the previous month. The credit growth is broadly in line with the RBI’s guidance of 17%.

The deposits registered a growth of 14.7% YoY (as on July 13, 2012), which is higher than the 14.3% growth seen during the previous month (on June 15, 2012). The growth in the deposits has been subdued due to the higher yields offered by the other debt instruments.

The credit/deposit (CD) ratio was at 75.9% (as on July 13, 2012), marginally lower than 76.4% seen as on June 15, 2012. Meanwhile, the incremental CD ratio increased to 88.9% for the period and was lower than the ratio seen during the previous month, reflecting a lower credit offtake during the period.

The yields on the government securities (G-Secs; of ten-year maturity) stood at 8.07% as on July 23, 2012, in line with the previous month’s figure. The G-Sec yields across the long-term maturities have remained stable on a month-on-month (M-o-M) basis but have declined in the short term.

Equity market: FIIs remain buyers

During the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the FIIs were the net buyers of equities and the domestic mutual funds were the net sellers of equities. For the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the FIIs bought equities worth Rs9,377 crore while the mutual funds sold equities worth Rs2,225 crore.

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monthly economy review

Banking stocks outperform

In the last one month, the BSE Bankex has grown by 2.6% as compared with a decline of 0.3% in the Sensex. The BSE Bankex has outperformed the broader index on the expectation of some fiscal measures by the government and the subsequent easing by the RBI.

Banking sector’s performance (as on date)

Company

 

Absolute

Relative

1M

3M

1M

3M

ICICI Bank HDFC Bank Punjab Natl Bank IndusInd Bank Axis Bank Yes Bank IDBI Bank State Bank of India Bank of Baroda Federal Bank Kotak Mahindra Union Bank Canara Bank Bank of India

7.1

10.5

4.6

8.7

6.3

6.1

3.8

4.5

3.3

-6.6

0.8

-8.1

2.0

-1.0

-0.4

-2.5

1.2

-8.1

-1.2

-9.5

1.1

-3.9

-1.3

-5.4

-1.6

-14.2

-3.9

-15.6

-3.0

-2.8

-5.3

-4.3

-3.4

-6.1

-5.7

-7.5

-4.6

0.0

-6.8

-1.5

-5.3

-4.8

-7.6

-6.3

-6.1

-9.8

-8.3

-11.2

-6.4

-15.2

-8.7

-16.5

-6.8

-5.7

-9.0

-7.1

M - Month

Economy & Banking

Trade deficit

25 100 20 80 15 60 10 40 5 0 20 -5 0 -10 -20
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
5
0
20
-5
0
-10
-20
-15
-40
-20
-25
-60
Trade balance ($bn) LHS
Imports % YoY
Exports % YoY
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The trade deficit for June 2012 came in at $10.3 billion, lower than the trade deficit recorded in May 2012. The trade deficit declined by 27% year on year (YoY).

The growth in the exports remained weak showing a

decline of 13.5% YoY (down 4.2% in May 2012). The

imports saw a decline of 5.5% YoY (as against a decline

of 7.4% in May 2012).

Industrial production (%)

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0

-10.0

IIP % YoY 3mma Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10
IIP % YoY
3mma
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

In May 2012 the IIP increased by 2.4% after remaining in the negative territory in the previous two months. The higher than expected growth for the month was led by a 2.5% growth in the manufacturing sector and a 5.9% growth in the electricity sector. The April 2012 IIP numbers have been revised downwards to -0.9% from 0.1%. For YTD FY2013, the IIP growth stood at 0.8% vs 8.2% in the previous year.

The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 2.5% YoY as against a decline of 1.2% YoY seen in April 2012. The mining output declined by 0.9% as against a decline of 3.2% in April 2012 whereas the electricity output grew by 5.9% vs the 4.6% growth in April 2012. In the use- based category, the consumer goods grew by 4.3% YoY

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July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

driven by a 9.3% growth in the consumer durable goods. The production of capital goods reported a decline of 7.7% vs a decline of 19.6% in April 2012.

On a sequential basis (month on month [MoM]) the IIP grew by 3.3% in May 2012 to an absolute figure of 170.2 (164.7 in April 2012). The manufacturing segment increased by 2.9% MoM led by a 7.8% M-o-M growth in the capital goods segment. The electricity segment reported a growth of 6.3% MoM followed by a 4.3% M-o-M increase in the mining segment.

The IIP numbers have been quite volatile recently and turned positive in May after a gap of two months. Based on the 3-monthly moving average, the IIP growth is 0.8% only. The capital goods segment showed a lesser fall but continued to post a decline. This clearly points to a slowdown in industrial activity which will affect the economic growth.

Leading indicators

In June 2012 the sales of commercial vehicles (CVs; heavy, medium and light) registered a growth of 8.8% YoY, which was higher than the growth seen in the previous month.

The total telecommunications (telecom) subscriber base in the country grew by 0.7% MoM in June 2012, lower than the 1.1% growth seen in May 2012.

Capital goods production declined by 7.7% YoY in May 2012 as compared with a contraction of 19.6% YoY in April 2012.

Inflation (WPI)

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The WPI-based inflation for June 2012 came in at 7.25% as against 7.55% in May 2012. The same was slightly below the market’s expectation. However, the inflation rate for April 2012 has been revised upwards sharply to 7.5% from the provisional figure of 7.23% led by an upward revision in the fuel segment.

The inflation rate for June 2012 was lower than the previous month’s and was primarily led by a decline in the prices of the primary articles, and the fuel, power and light segments. On an annual basis, the increase in the prices of the primary articles stood at 10.46% (as against 10.88% in May 2012) due to a decline in the prices of the non-food articles and minerals. The fuel

inflation also declined to 10.27% from 11.53% in May 2012 whereas inflation in the manufacturing category remained stable at 5%, similar to that in May.

Inflation in the primary articles remained in double digits, though it showed a marginal decline MoM. Fuel inflation declined marginally by 0.4% MoM while inflation in manufacturing goods expanded by 0.35% MoM.

The inflation rate for June has come in slightly below the expectation but it remains higher than the comfort level of the RBI. In addition, the inflation rate is being revised upwards for the previous months which points to a sustained pressure. Meanwhile, the core inflation has stabilised at 5% levels which gives some comfort. However, high food inflation and deficient rainfall coupled with the possibility of a fuel price hike will affect the outlook on inflation. This time around, the market’s expectation of a rate cut by the RBI is not significant, but if the government takes any major action on the diesel pricing front, the RBI may surprise with a 25-basis-point reduction in the CRR/repo rates.

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monthly economy review

Credit 5,000 35.0 4,500 30.0 4,000 3,500 25.0 3,000 20.0 2,500 15.0 2,000 1,500 10.0
Credit
5,000
35.0
4,500
30.0
4,000
3,500
25.0
3,000
20.0
2,500
15.0
2,000
1,500
10.0
1,000
5.0
500
-
-
Bank Credit
% gw t in Agg Credit
Rs 000 crore
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The credit offtake registered a growth of 17.7% YoY (as on July 13, 2012), which was in line with the growth recorded in the previous month. The credit growth is broadly in line with the RBI’s guidance of 17%.

Deposit 7,000 30.0 6,000 25.0 5,000 20.0 4,000 15.0 3,000 10.0 2,000 5.0 1,000 -
Deposit
7,000
30.0
6,000
25.0
5,000
20.0
4,000
15.0
3,000
10.0
2,000
5.0
1,000
-
-
Deposits
% grow th
Rs 000 crore
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The deposits registered a growth of 14.7% YoY (as on July 13, 2012), which is higher than the 14.3% growth seen during the previous month (on June 15, 2012). The growth in the deposits has fallen due to the higher yields offered by the other debt instruments.

Deployment (CD ratio %) Demand deposits 80.0 40.0% 78.0 30.0% 76.0 74.0 20.0% 72.0 10.0%
Deployment (CD ratio %)
Demand deposits
80.0
40.0%
78.0
30.0%
76.0
74.0
20.0%
72.0
10.0%
70.0
68.0
0.0%
66.0
-10.0%
64.0
-20.0%
DD grow th
DD as % of TD
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The credit/deposit (CD) ratio was at 75.9% (as on July 13, 2012), marginally lower than 76.4% seen as on June 15, 2012. Meanwhile, the incremental CD ratio increased to 88.9% for the period and was lower than the ratio seen during the previous month, reflecting a lower credit offtake during the period.

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The demand deposits saw a growth of 6.6% YoY (as on July 13, 2012) compared with the 7.5% Y-o-Y growth seen in the previous month (as on June 15, 2012). As on July 13, 2012, the demand deposits as a percentage of the total deposits was 9.3%, lower than 9.6% in the previous month.

Money supply

8500 24% 8000 7500 22% 7000 6500 The money supply (M3) growth as on July
8500
24%
8000
7500
22%
7000
6500
The money supply (M3) growth as on July 13, 2012
stood at 14.3% YoY, but remained lower than the 15.5%
targeted by the RBI.
20%
6000
5500
18%
5000
4500
16%
4000
3500
3000
14%
2500
2000
12%
Money Supply (M3)
% Y oY - RHS
Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research
Sharekhan Special
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July 26, 2012
Rs 000 crore
Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
May-12
Jul-12

Rs (billion)(%)

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Debt market indicators

Liquidity

2000

1500

1000

500

0

-500

-1000

-1500

-2000

-2500

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Money market

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Repo Rev Repo MM Rate Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11
Repo
Rev Repo
MM Rate
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

During its quarterly policy review, the RBI kept the repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8% and 7% respectively while the CRR was kept unchanged at 4.75%. The growth in the bank deposits has declined in the past one month. The money market rates have declined to 7.6% as compared with 7.9% for June 2012.

The liquidity situation improved during the month under review. The average deficit for the MTD period decreased to Rs48 thousand crore from Rs94 thousand crore in June 2012. The deposits registered a growth of 13.5% YoY (as on June 29, 2012), lower than the 14.1% growth seen during the previous month (on June 1, 2012).

G-Sec yields (%) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 10Yr 5Yr 3Yr 1Yr
G-Sec yields (%)
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
10Yr
5Yr
3Yr
1Yr
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The yields on the G-Secs (of ten-year maturity) stood at 8.07% as on July 23, 2012, in line with the previous month’s figure. The G-Sec yields across the long-term maturities have remained stable on an M-o-M basis but have declined in the short term.

Yield curve (%)

9.0 20 10 8.0 0 7.0 -10 6.0 -20 -30 5.0 -40 4.0 -50 3.0
9.0
20
10
8.0
0
7.0
-10
6.0
-20
-30
5.0
-40
4.0
-50
3.0
-60
3M
1yr
4yr
10yr
Change since June (bps RHS)
July 12 (% LHS)
June 12 (% LHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

With the yields for the short-term maturities declining

on an M-o-M basis, the lower end of the yield curve

shifted downward as compared with its position in June 2012. Meanwhile the upper end of the yield curve moved upwards as compared with its position in the previous month as the yields for the long-term maturities increased MoM.

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monthly economy review

Spreads (AAA Corp less G-Secs for 10-year maturity)

Forex rate movements

4.5 75 95 4.0 90 70 3.5 85 65 3.0 80 60 2.5 75 2.0
4.5
75
95
4.0
90
70
3.5
85
65
3.0
80
60
2.5
75
2.0
55
70
1.5
50
65
1.0
45
60
0.5
40
55
-
USD/INR
JPY/INR
EUR/INR - RHS
GBP/INR - RHS
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
(Rs)
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12 (Rs) Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research Source: Bloomberg,

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The chart above plots the quality spread (AAA Corp less G-Secs for ten-year maturity). Spreads at 146 basis points as on July 20, 2012 were higher than that seen during the previous month.

The rupee appreciated by around 2.2% against the dollar during the month. It also appreciated by around 5.8% against the euro and by 2.4% against the pound. However, it depreciated by 0.8% against the yen.

Trend in CP rates and OIS swap rate spread

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

-

3M 6M 12M Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
3M
6M
12M
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Spot 1yr X 1yr Fw d Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06
Spot
1yr X 1yr Fw d
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

The commercial paper rates contracted on an M–o-M basis with the rates for the three-month, six-month and twelve-month maturities declining by 25 basis points, 23 basis points and 15 basis points respectively.

The spread between the overnight index swap (OIS) spot rates and the one-year forward contract rates stands at around -67 basis points in the MTD period. This indicates the Street’s expectations of a decline in the interest rate scenario over the next 12 months.

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monthly economy review

Equity market

Lacklustre volumes

Equity (cash) fund flow

5000 1600 FII MF 1400 4000 1200 1000 3000 800 2000 600 400 1000 200
5000
1600
FII
MF
1400
4000
1200
1000
3000
800
2000
600
400
1000
200
0
0
-1000
F&O
Cash
Rs (billion)
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Rs (crore)
25-Jun
27-Jun
29-Jun
01-Jul
03-Jul
05-Jul
07-Jul
09-Jul
11-Jul
13-Jul
15-Jul
17-Jul
19-Jul
21-Jul
23-Jul
11-Jul 13-Jul 15-Jul 17-Jul 19-Jul 21-Jul 23-Jul Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research Source: Bloomberg,

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

During the MTD period (July 1-23, 2012), the average daily volumes decreased in the futures and options (F&O) and cash segments.

During the MTD period, the average daily volumes in the cash segment decreased by 1.6% MoM while the F&O volumes decreased by 21% MoM.

During the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the FIIs were the net buyers of equities and the domestic mutual funds were the net sellers of equities. For the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the FIIs bought equities worth Rs9,377 crore while the mutual funds sold equities worth Rs2,225 crore.

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monthly economy review

Global round-up

United States of America

The industrial production for June 2012 was at 0.4%, higher than -0.1% in the previous month.

The housing starts saw a growth of 6.9% MoM in June as against a decline of 4.8% MoM in the previous month.

The retail sales contracted by 0.4% in June 2012. The retail sales excluding automobiles and gas also declined by 0.2% in June 2012.

The latest data for the US jobless claims (week ended July 14, 2012) showed that jobless claims increased by 36,000 to 386,000.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2012 stood at 49.7, lower than the 53.5 reading seen in the previous month.

United Kingdom

The industrial production for May 2012 declined by 1.6% as against a 1.0% decline seen in the previous month.

The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)’s gross domestic product (GDP) estimate stood at -0.2% for June 2012, in line with the previous month.

The UK’s retail sales grew by 0.3% MoM in June 2012 as against by 0.9% in the previous month. The retail sales (ex automobiles, fuel) saw an expansion of 0.1% as against a contraction of 1.4% seen in the previous month.

Consumer confidence was flat in June 2012 with the nationwide consumer confidence index at -29, in line with the previous month.

Euro zone

The retail sales for May 2012 grew by 0.6% MoM after contracting by 1.0% in the previous month. On a Y-o-Y basis, the retail sales declined by 1.7%.

In June 2012, consumer confidence in the euro zone was negative 19.8% as against a negative 19.8% in the previous month.

The unemployment rate in the euro zone was at 11.1% in May 2012 as against 11% in the previous month.

Asia

China’s industrial production for June grew by 9.5% YoY as against 9.6% YoY in the previous month.

China’s exports for June 2012 grew by 11.3% YoY as compared with the 15.3% Y-o-Y growth seen in the previous month. Meanwhile the imports grew by 6.3% YoY against the 12.7% Y-o-Y growth seen in the previous month.

Singapore’s industrial production grew by 1.8% MoM but by 6.6% YoY in May 2012.

Japan’s machine orders declined by 14.8% MoM in May 2012 as compared with a 1.1% growth seen in the previous month.

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Data summary

Leading indicators (% YoY)

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

Capital goods production Commercial vehicle sales Finished steel production Non-food credit of SCBs Telecom subscription* Fertiliser sales

-20.3

-16

-2.7

10.2

-20.3

-16.3

-7.7

16.4

14.8

17.2

20.0

13.5

2.8

6.8

8.8

14.5

10.2

-2.8

4.7

2.3

5.8

4.9

19.2

15.7

16.1

15.4

19.3

16.8

17.1

18.3

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.7

10

2.6

-10

23

60

-18

-1

-11

*Telecom subscription growth is calculated on an M-o-M basis.

 

Industrial production (% YoY)

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

General Manufacturing Mining Electricity Basic goods Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumer goods Consumer durables Consumer non-durables

9.5

2.7

1.0

4.1

-3.2

0.1

2.4

11.2

2.8

1.1

3.9

-4.0

0.1

2.5

-1.4

-3.3

-2.1

2.7

-1.3

-3.1

-0.9

7.9

9.1

3.2

8.0

2.7

4.6

5.9

7.8

5.5

1.9

7.7

0.9

2.3

4.1

38.7

-16.0

-2.7

10.2

-20.3

-16.3

-7.7

1.6

-1.5

-2.5

-0.2

-1.7

-1.4

2.7

3.1

10.1

2.5

-0.3

1.2

5.2

4.3

1.6

5.1

-7.5

-6.1

1.0

5.0

9.3

4.4

13.8

10.6

4.5

1.2

5.4

0.1

Inflation (WPI)

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

All commodities Primary Fuel, Power L&L Manufactured products CPI - Industrial worker

9.51

7.74

6.89

7.36

7.69

7.23

7.55

7.25

11.31

3.59

2.76

7.07

10.41

9.71

10.88

10.46

7.9

7.64

6.71

5.82

5.16

5.12

5.02

5.00

12.85

14.98

14.61

13.55

12.82

11.03

11.53

10.27

8.62

6.49

5.32

7.57

8.65

10.22

10.16

Trade

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

Exports (YoY %) Imports (YoY %) Trade balance ($ bn) Forex reserves ($ bn)

30.4

4.3

10.0

4.2

-5.7

3.2

-4.2

13.5

42.3

26.0

27.8

24.2

24.3

3.8

-7.4

5.5

(14.10)

(15.20)

(17.40)

(16.40)

(13.91)

(13.49)

(16.27)

(10.3)

309.0

296.7

293.9

295.0

294.4

295.4

288.3

290

Forex rates

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

INR/$ INR/GBP INR/ 100 yen INR/euro

44.7

53.3

49.7

48.9

51.2

52.5

56.4

56.3

72.0

82.1

78.2

78.0

81.8

85.5

87.4

88.1

55.6

68.7

65.2

60.9

62.4

65.5

71.6

70.9

64.8

68.9

65.5

65.9

68.3

69.6

70.0

70.9

Interest rate

Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

1-year GoI paper (%) 10-year GoI paper (%)

8.13

8.47

8.05

8.17

8.20

8.09

8.13

7.99

8.33

8.57

8.28

8.20

8.54

8.67

8.50

8.18

Sharekhan Special

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sharekhan special

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a postition in the companies mentioned in the article.

monthly economy review

companies mentioned in the article. monthly economy review Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Sharekhan

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