sharekhan special

monthly economy review

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July 26, 2012

Monthly economy review

Economy: industrial growth remains subdued; inflation
remains above RBIs comfort zone

front the RBI may surprise with a 25-basis-point

reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR)/repo rates.

 In May 2012 the Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

increased by 2.4% after remaining in the negative
territory in the previous two months. The higher than
expected growth for the month was led by a 2.5%
growth in the manufacturing sector and a 5.9% growth
in the electricity sector. The April 2012 IIP numbers
have been revised downwards to -0.9% from 0.1%. For
year-till-date (YTD) FY2013, the IIP growth stood at
0.8% vs 8.2% in the previous year.

 The credit offtake registered a growth of 17.7% YoY

(as on July 13, 2012), which was in line with the growth
recorded in the previous month. The credit growth is
broadly in line with the RBIs guidance of 17%.
 The deposits registered a growth of 14.7% YoY (as on
July 13, 2012), which is higher than the 14.3% growth
seen during the previous month (on June 15, 2012).
The growth in the deposits has been subdued due to
the higher yields offered by the other debt instruments.

 The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation for June

2012 came in at 7.25% as against 7.55% in May 2012. The
same was slightly below the markets expectation.
However, the inflation rate for April 2012 has been revised
upwards sharply to 7.5% from the provisional figure of
7.23% led by an upward revision in the fuel segment.

 The credit/deposit (CD) ratio was at 75.9% (as on July

13, 2012), marginally lower than 76.4% seen as on June
15, 2012. Meanwhile, the incremental CD ratio
increased to 88.9% for the period and was lower than
the ratio seen during the previous month, reflecting a
lower credit offtake during the period.

 The trade deficit for June 2012 came in at $10.3 billion,

lower than the trade deficit recorded in May 2012.
The trade deficit declined by 27% year on year (YoY).
The growth in the exports remained weak showing a
decline of 13.5% YoY (down 4.2% in May 2012). The
imports saw a decline of 5.5% YoY (as against a decline
of 7.4% in May 2012).

 The yields on the government securities (G-Secs; of

ten-year maturity) stood at 8.07% as on July 23, 2012,
in line with the previous months figure. The G-Sec
yields across the long-term maturities have remained
stable on a month-on-month (M-o-M) basis but have
declined in the short term.
Equity market: FIIs remain buyers

Banking: Government policy action remains key to RBI

action

During the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the
FIIs were the net buyers of equities and the domestic
mutual funds were the net sellers of equities. For the
MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the FIIs bought
equities worth Rs9,377 crore while the mutual funds sold
equities worth Rs2,225 crore.

 Though in the forthcoming policy meet on July 31, 2012

the markets expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) is not significant, but if the
government takes any major action on the diesel pricing

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Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Banking stocks outperform

Banking sectors performance (as on date)

In the last one month, the BSE Bankex has grown by 2.6%
as compared with a decline of 0.3% in the Sensex. The
BSE Bankex has outperformed the broader index on the
expectation of some fiscal measures by the government
and the subsequent easing by the RBI.

Company

Absolute

Relative

1M

3M

1M

3M

ICICI Bank

7.1

10.5

4.6

8.7

HDFC Bank

6.3

6.1

3.8

4.5

Punjab Natl Bank

3.3

-6.6

0.8

-8.1

IndusInd Bank

2.0

-1.0

-0.4

-2.5

Axis Bank

1.2

-8.1

-1.2

-9.5

Yes Bank

1.1

-3.9

-1.3

-5.4

IDBI Bank

-1.6

-14.2

-3.9

-15.6

State Bank of India

-3.0

-2.8

-5.3

-4.3

Bank of Baroda

-3.4

-6.1

-5.7

-7.5

Federal Bank

-4.6

0.0

-6.8

-1.5

Kotak Mahindra

-5.3

-4.8

-7.6

-6.3

Union Bank

-6.1

-9.8

-8.3

-11.2

Canara Bank

-6.4

-15.2

-8.7

-16.5

Bank of India

-6.8

-5.7

-9.0

-7.1

M - Month

Economy & Banking

Trade deficit
25

100

20

80

15

60

10

40

20

-10

Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12

5
-5

 The trade deficit for June 2012 came in at $10.3 billion,

lower than the trade deficit recorded in May 2012.
The trade deficit declined by 27% year on year (YoY).
The growth in the exports remained weak showing a
decline of 13.5% YoY (down 4.2% in May 2012). The
imports saw a decline of 5.5% YoY (as against a decline
of 7.4% in May 2012).

-15

0
-20

-20

-40

-25

-60
Trade balance ($bn) LHS

Imports % YoY

Exports % YoY

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Industrial production (%)

 In May 2012 the IIP increased by 2.4% after remaining
in the negative territory in the previous two months.
The higher than expected growth for the month was
led by a 2.5% growth in the manufacturing sector and
a 5.9% growth in the electricity sector. The April 2012
IIP numbers have been revised downwards to -0.9% from
0.1%. For YTD FY2013, the IIP growth stood at 0.8% vs
8.2% in the previous year.

20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0

Feb-12

May-12

Nov-11

Aug-11

Feb-11

May-11

Nov-10

Aug-10

Feb-10

May-10

Nov-09

Aug-09

Feb-09

May-09

Nov-08

Aug-08

May-08

-5.0

Feb-08

0.0

 The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 2.5% YoY as

against a decline of 1.2% YoY seen in April 2012. The
mining output declined by 0.9% as against a decline of
3.2% in April 2012 whereas the electricity output grew
by 5.9% vs the 4.6% growth in April 2012. In the usebased category, the consumer goods grew by 4.3% YoY

-10.0
IIP % YoY

3mma

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

driven by a 9.3% growth in the consumer durable goods. The production of capital goods reported a decline of 7.7%
vs a decline of 19.6% in April 2012.
 On a sequential basis (month on month [MoM]) the IIP grew by 3.3% in May 2012 to an absolute figure of 170.2
(164.7 in April 2012). The manufacturing segment increased by 2.9% MoM led by a 7.8% M-o-M growth in the capital
goods segment. The electricity segment reported a growth of 6.3% MoM followed by a 4.3% M-o-M increase in the
mining segment.
 The IIP numbers have been quite volatile recently and turned positive in May after a gap of two months. Based on the
3-monthly moving average, the IIP growth is 0.8% only. The capital goods segment showed a lesser fall but continued
to post a decline. This clearly points to a slowdown in industrial activity which will affect the economic growth.
Leading indicators
 In June 2012 the sales of commercial vehicles (CVs; heavy, medium and light) registered a growth of 8.8% YoY,
which was higher than the growth seen in the previous month.
 The total telecommunications (telecom) subscriber base in the country grew by 0.7% MoM in June 2012, lower than
the 1.1% growth seen in May 2012.
 Capital goods production declined by 7.7% YoY in May 2012 as compared with a contraction of 19.6% YoY in April 2012.

Inflation (WPI)
 The WPI-based inflation for June 2012 came in at 7.25%
as against 7.55% in May 2012. The same was slightly
below the markets expectation. However, the inflation
rate for April 2012 has been revised upwards sharply
to 7.5% from the provisional figure of 7.23% led by an
upward revision in the fuel segment.

12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%

 The inflation rate for June 2012 was lower than the
previous months and was primarily led by a decline in
the prices of the primary articles, and the fuel, power
and light segments. On an annual basis, the increase
in the prices of the primary articles stood at 10.46%
(as against 10.88% in May 2012) due to a decline in the
prices of the non-food articles and minerals. The fuel

0%
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12

-2%

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

inflation also declined to 10.27% from 11.53% in May 2012 whereas inflation in the manufacturing category remained
stable at 5%, similar to that in May.
 Inflation in the primary articles remained in double digits, though it showed a marginal decline MoM. Fuel inflation
declined marginally by 0.4% MoM while inflation in manufacturing goods expanded by 0.35% MoM.
 The inflation rate for June has come in slightly below the expectation but it remains higher than the comfort level
of the RBI. In addition, the inflation rate is being revised upwards for the previous months which points to a
sustained pressure. Meanwhile, the core inflation has stabilised at 5% levels which gives some comfort. However,
high food inflation and deficient rainfall coupled with the possibility of a fuel price hike will affect the outlook on
inflation. This time around, the markets expectation of a rate cut by the RBI is not significant, but if the government
takes any major action on the diesel pricing front, the RBI may surprise with a 25-basis-point reduction in the
CRR/repo rates.

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Deposit
35.0

7,000

30.0

30.0

6,000

25.0

25.0

5,000

Rs 000 crore

5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-

20.0
15.0
10.0

15.0

3,000

10.0

2,000

5.0

1,000

5.0

Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Bank Credit

20.0

4,000

Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Rs 000 crore

Credit

% gw t in Agg Credit

Deposits

% grow th

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 The credit offtake registered a growth of 17.7% YoY

(as on July 13, 2012), which was in line with the growth
recorded in the previous month. The credit growth is
broadly in line with the RBIs guidance of 17%.

 The deposits registered a growth of 14.7% YoY (as on

July 13, 2012), which is higher than the 14.3% growth
seen during the previous month (on June 15, 2012).
The growth in the deposits has fallen due to the higher
yields offered by the other debt instruments.

Deployment (CD ratio %)

Demand deposits

80.0
78.0
76.0
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0
66.0
64.0

40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%

Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

-10.0%

Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

0.0%

-20.0%
DD grow th

DD as % of TD

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 The credit/deposit (CD) ratio was at 75.9% (as on July

13, 2012), marginally lower than 76.4% seen as on June
15, 2012. Meanwhile, the incremental CD ratio
increased to 88.9% for the period and was lower than
the ratio seen during the previous month, reflecting a
lower credit offtake during the period.

 The demand deposits saw a growth of 6.6% YoY (as on

July 13, 2012) compared with the 7.5% Y-o-Y growth
seen in the previous month (as on June 15, 2012).
 As on July 13, 2012, the demand deposits as a
percentage of the total deposits was 9.3%, lower than
9.6% in the previous month.

 The money supply (M3) growth as on July 13, 2012

stood at 14.3% YoY, but remained lower than the 15.5%
targeted by the RBI.

24%

8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

22%
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
May-12
Jul-12

Rs 000 crore

Money supply

Money Supply (M3)

% Y oY - RHS

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Debt market indicators

Liquidity
 The liquidity situation improved during the month
under review. The average deficit for the MTD period
decreased to Rs48 thousand crore from Rs94 thousand
crore in June 2012. The deposits registered a growth
of 13.5% YoY (as on June 29, 2012), lower than the
14.1% growth seen during the previous month (on June
1, 2012).

2000
1500
1000
0
-500
-1000

Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Rs (billion)

500

-1500
-2000
-2500
Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Money market

G-Sec yields (%)

Rev Repo

Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

Jul-12

Jan-10

Repo

May-12

3.0
Jan-12

0
Mar-12

4.0
Nov-11

2
Sep-11

5.0

Jul-11

6.0

May-11

Jan-11

7.0

Mar-11

Nov-10

8.0

Jul-10

10

Sep-10

9.0

May-10

12

Mar-10

10.0

(%)

14

10Yr

MM Rate

5Yr

3Yr

1Yr

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 During its quarterly policy review, the RBI kept the

repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8% and 7%
respectively while the CRR was kept unchanged at
4.75%. The growth in the bank deposits has declined
in the past one month. The money market rates have
declined to 7.6% as compared with 7.9% for June 2012.

 The yields on the G-Secs (of ten-year maturity) stood

at 8.07% as on July 23, 2012, in line with the previous
months figure. The G-Sec yields across the long-term
maturities have remained stable on an M-o-M basis but
have declined in the short term.

Yield curve (%)

9.0

 With the yields for the short-term maturities declining

on an M-o-M basis, the lower end of the yield curve
shifted downward as compared with its position in June
2012. Meanwhile the upper end of the yield curve
moved upwards as compared with its position in the
previous month as the yields for the long-term
maturities increased MoM.

20
10

8.0

0
-10
-20
-30

7.0
6.0
5.0

-40
-50
-60

4.0
3.0
3M

1yr

4yr

Change since June (bps RHS)

July 12 (% LHS)

10yr
June 12 (% LHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Spreads (AAA Corp less G-Secs for 10-year maturity)

Forex rate movements

4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-

75

95

70

90

65

85
80
75

55

70

Sep-11

Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12

USD/INR

JPY /INR

EUR/INR - RHS

May-12

55
Mar-12

60

40
Jan-12

65

45
Nov-11

50

Jul-11

(Rs)

60

GBP/INR - RHS

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 The chart above plots the quality spread (AAA Corp

less G-Secs for ten-year maturity). Spreads at 146 basis
points as on July 20, 2012 were higher than that seen
during the previous month.

 The rupee appreciated by around 2.2% against the

dollar during the month. It also appreciated by around
5.8% against the euro and by 2.4% against the pound.
However, it depreciated by 0.8% against the yen.

Trend in CP rates and OIS swap rate spread

12

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
-

10
8
6
4
2

3M

6M

Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12

Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

12M

Spot

1yr X 1yr Fw d
Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 The commercial paper rates contracted on an Mo-M basis with the rates for the three-month, six-month and
twelve-month maturities declining by 25 basis points, 23 basis points and 15 basis points respectively.
 The spread between the overnight index swap (OIS) spot rates and the one-year forward contract rates stands at
around -67 basis points in the MTD period. This indicates the Streets expectations of a decline in the interest rate
scenario over the next 12 months.

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Equity market
Equity (cash) fund flow
5000

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

FII

MF

Rs (crore)

4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12

23-Jul

21-Jul

19-Jul

17-Jul

15-Jul

13-Jul

11-Jul

09-Jul

07-Jul

05-Jul

03-Jul

01-Jul

Cash

29-Jun

25-Jun

F&O

-1000
27-Jun

Rs (billion)

Lacklustre volumes

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

Source: Bloomberg, Sharekhan Research

 During the MTD period (July 1-23, 2012), the average

daily volumes decreased in the futures and options
(F&O) and cash segments.

 During the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012),

the FIIs were the net buyers of equities and the
domestic mutual funds were the net sellers of equities.
For the MTD period in July 2012 (July 1-23, 2012), the
FIIs bought equities worth Rs9,377 crore while the
mutual funds sold equities worth Rs2,225 crore.

 During the MTD period, the average daily volumes in

the cash segment decreased by 1.6% MoM while the
F&O volumes decreased by 21% MoM.

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Global round-up
United States of America
 The industrial production for June 2012 was at 0.4%, higher than -0.1% in the previous month.
 The housing starts saw a growth of 6.9% MoM in June as against a decline of 4.8% MoM in the previous month.
 The retail sales contracted by 0.4% in June 2012. The retail sales excluding automobiles and gas also declined by
0.2% in June 2012.
 The latest data for the US jobless claims (week ended July 14, 2012) showed that jobless claims increased by
36,000 to 386,000.
 The ISM Manufacturing Index for June 2012 stood at 49.7, lower than the 53.5 reading seen in the previous month.
United Kingdom
 The industrial production for May 2012 declined by 1.6% as against a 1.0% decline seen in the previous month.
 The UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)s gross domestic product (GDP) estimate stood
at -0.2% for June 2012, in line with the previous month.
 The UKs retail sales grew by 0.3% MoM in June 2012 as against by 0.9% in the previous month. The retail sales (ex
automobiles, fuel) saw an expansion of 0.1% as against a contraction of 1.4% seen in the previous month.
 Consumer confidence was flat in June 2012 with the nationwide consumer confidence index at -29, in line with the
previous month.
Euro zone
 The retail sales for May 2012 grew by 0.6% MoM after contracting by 1.0% in the previous month. On a Y-o-Y basis,
the retail sales declined by 1.7%.
 In June 2012, consumer confidence in the euro zone was negative 19.8% as against a negative 19.8% in the previous
month.
 The unemployment rate in the euro zone was at 11.1% in May 2012 as against 11% in the previous month.
Asia
 Chinas industrial production for June grew by 9.5% YoY as against 9.6% YoY in the previous month.
 Chinas exports for June 2012 grew by 11.3% YoY as compared with the 15.3% Y-o-Y growth seen in the previous
month. Meanwhile the imports grew by 6.3% YoY against the 12.7% Y-o-Y growth seen in the previous month.
 Singapores industrial production grew by 1.8% MoM but by 6.6% YoY in May 2012.
 Japans machine orders declined by 14.8% MoM in May 2012 as compared with a 1.1% growth seen in the previous
month.

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan special

monthly economy review

Data summary
Leading indicators (% YoY)
Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Capital goods production

-20.3

-16

-2.7

10.2

-20.3

-16.3

-7.7

Commercial vehicle sales

16.4

14.8

17.2

20.0

13.5

2.8

6.8

June-12
8.8

Finished steel production

14.5

10.2

-2.8

4.7

2.3

5.8

4.9

Non-food credit of SCBs

19.2

15.7

16.1

15.4

19.3

16.8

17.1

18.3

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.7

10

2.6

-10

23

60

-18

-1

-11

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

9.5

2.7

1.0

4.1

-3.2

0.1

2.4

Telecom subscription*
Fertiliser sales

*Telecom subscription growth is calculated on an M-o-M basis.

Industrial production (% YoY)

Particulars
General
Manufacturing

11.2

2.8

1.1

3.9

-4.0

0.1

2.5

Mining

-1.4

-3.3

-2.1

2.7

-1.3

-3.1

-0.9

Electricity

7.9

9.1

3.2

8.0

2.7

4.6

5.9

Basic goods

7.8

5.5

1.9

7.7

0.9

2.3

4.1

Capital goods

38.7

-16.0

-2.7

10.2

-20.3

-16.3

-7.7

Intermediate goods

1.6

-1.5

-2.5

-0.2

-1.7

-1.4

2.7

Consumer goods

3.1

10.1

2.5

-0.3

1.2

5.2

4.3

Consumer durables

1.6

5.1

-7.5

-6.1

1.0

5.0

9.3

Consumer non-durables

4.4

13.8

10.6

4.5

1.2

5.4

0.1

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

9.51

7.74

6.89

7.36

7.69

7.23

7.55

7.25

11.31

3.59

2.76

7.07

10.41

9.71

10.88

10.46

Inflation (WPI)
Particulars
All commodities
Primary
Fuel, Power L&L

June-12

7.9

7.64

6.71

5.82

5.16

5.12

5.02

5.00

Manufactured products

12.85

14.98

14.61

13.55

12.82

11.03

11.53

10.27

CPI - Industrial worker

8.62

6.49

5.32

7.57

8.65

10.22

10.16

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12
13.5

Trade
Particulars
Exports (YoY %)

30.4

4.3

10.0

4.2

-5.7

3.2

-4.2

Imports (YoY %)

42.3

26.0

27.8

24.2

24.3

3.8

-7.4

5.5

Trade balance ($ bn)

(14.10)

(15.20)

(17.40)

(16.40)

(13.91)

(13.49)

(16.27)

(10.3)

Forex reserves ($ bn)

309.0

296.7

293.9

295.0

294.4

295.4

288.3

290

Forex rates
Particulars

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

INR/$

44.7

53.3

49.7

48.9

51.2

52.5

56.4

56.3

INR/GBP

72.0

82.1

78.2

78.0

81.8

85.5

87.4

88.1

INR/ 100 yen

55.6

68.7

65.2

60.9

62.4

65.5

71.6

70.9

INR/euro

64.8

68.9

65.5

65.9

68.3

69.6

70.0

70.9

June-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

June-12

1-year GoI paper (%)

8.13

8.47

8.05

8.17

8.20

8.09

8.13

7.99

10-year GoI paper (%)

8.33

8.57

8.28

8.20

8.54

8.67

8.50

8.18

Interest rate
Particulars

Sharekhan Special

July 26, 2012

sharekhan
special
monthlyineconomy
review
Sharekhan
Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a postition in the companies mentioned
the article.

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Sharekhan Special

10

July 26, 2012