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of Revolutions
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1
place on a gigantic scale under our very eyes without
our realization of their trend and significance. We are in
the midst of the mad whirl of this raging world hurricane
so that our mental vision is obscured, our mind is
paralyzed by the very magnitude of the furious struggle
of frenzied social and psychic forces. No scientist, no
statesman can forecast any of the consequences,
or estimate the meaning of the profound and extensive
transformations rapidly taking place in the nature of
society and man. This much we seem to feel and know,
that humanity is in labor with big events which are far
beyond our ken, that society is in the throes of a new
social order the character or even the outlines of which
cannot be discerned in this infernal confusion of
supreme struggle of social elements and human
passions. Man and society are now being forged into new
forms, hammered by Vulcan blows of war and revolt.
2
When social forces become charged with
revolutionary ferment the governments under ordinary
favorable conditions keep those forces in check by
means of force exerted on the fear instinct, but the
pangs of famine and the distress of cold with their results
of disease and epidemic counteract the fear of force,
arousing the fear instinct of death and the fundamental
instinct of self-preservation, throwing the social organism
into convulsions of riots, revolts and revolutions. All this
the author traces to variations of the central source of all
terrestrial energy―to variations of solar activities.
3
Germany and Austria-Hungary, involve the possibility of a
complete change in the face of the present war.
5
It may be interesting to note that Professor Jevons
has advanced a meteorological theory to explain the
periodicity of industrial crises. Industrial crises usually
appear about once in ten years. Jevons ascribes this to a
periodicity in the climate, causing, in cases of cold years,
poor crops, and therefore a failure of everything
dependent on the crops, including the banking system,
and through that, the whole industrial system. This
periodicity in the crops, which would directly concern the
subject of this article, Jevons ascribes to a well-known
periodicity in the number of spots on the sun.
6
spots.
Tyrolese
Minimum of 1811 180
9 revolt
181 Revolt in
0 Mexico
Revolt in
Minimum of 1822 182
0 Spain
Revolt in
Italy
Revolt in
South
America
7
182 Revolution
1 in Mexico
Carlist
Minimum of 1834 183 revolt in
3 Spain
Revolution
Minimum of 1856 185
7 in Mexico
Indian
Mutiny
Revolution
Minimum of 1867 186
8 in Japan
Brazilian
Minimum of 1889 188
9 revolution
Cuban
Minimum of 1900 189
7 Revolution
189 Revolt in
8 Spain
Portugues
Minimum of 1911 191 e
0 Revolution
Mexican
191 Revolution
1 (Madero's)
191 Chinese
1 revolution
191 Balkan
8
2 Wars
Revolution
Maximum of 1828 183
0 in France
183 Revolt in
1 Poland
Belgian
Revolution
Insurrection
Maximum of 1850 184
8 s in Austria
Revolt in
Prussia
Chartist
Uprising in
England
Revolution
in France
Tai-Ping
185 Rebellion in
1 China
Paris
Maximum of 1872 187
1 Commune
9
Rebellion in
Maximum of 1905 190
5 Russia
Russian
Maximum of 1916 191
7 Revolution
191 Rebellion in
7 Germany
Dublin
191 "Sinn Fein"
6 Insurrection
191 Rebellion in
8 Germany
Rebellion in
Austria
Hungary
Uprising in
Quebec
10
This would seem to indicate that there is actually an
eleven-year period for revolutions corresponding to the
sun-spots. In fact, if we take the above list of revolts in
northern countries, and try to calculate from that what
sort of period they could be fitted into easiest, the
method of least squares gives us that period: 11.07
years. The period of sun-spots has been estimated at
11.1 years. The average time of occurrence would be
given, for example, October 3, 1905; May 27, 1850, etc. I
may add that, in 1905, the most and largest sun-spots
were visible in September and October. The average
deviation in the case of a period of 11 years would be
slightly over three years.
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A government not based on the will of the people
must, in the nature of things, rule by fear, by keeping the
people inconstant subjection; and the people will be kept
in subjection as long as they can be made to fear. The
tendency of such oppression is to exasperate the people
and excite them to desperate measures, especially if the
oppression affects their means of livelihood. But if
circumstances suddenly become such that many lives, or
the health of many people, are seriously threatened as by
extreme cold, famine, &c., this super-adds the instinct of
self-preservation, and the fear is entirely counteracted.
The power of the government to keep the people in
subjugation is weakened, and the rebellious tendencies
come to the foreground, resulting in open revolt. This will
happen especially, if there is a poor crop; and this
probably takes place every eleven years, in accordance
with the sun-spot variations.
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minimum; 1905, maximum; 1911, minimum; 1916,
maximum. Following a variation of three years in some
cases from the exact date or the maximum or minimum,
as the case may be, we will start with three years before
the minimum of 1900, that is, 1897. At this time we may
expect revolts to take place in warm countries, and this
sort of period lasts till 1903. After a hot summer, revolt
broke out in Cuba in the fall of 1897. The proximity of
Cuba to the United States brought about American
intervention in the shape of the Spanish-American War of
1898. The Philippine Islands, which were annexed by
United States, revolted in 1902. Even in 1903, revolt
broke out in Panama. But now, we are getting to the
period of revolt for the northern countries, approaching
1905. In 1903 the two branches of the Social Democratic
Party of Russia, the Bolsheviki and the Mensheviki, were
organised, revolts were threatening in 1904, and the
Czars government, threatened by this, proceeded to
throw its people into a fight against Japan. This attempt
was unsuccessful, and in 1905, at the time of the sun-
spot maximum, a revolutionary organisation was
established in Russia, only to be crushed. The last traces
of this revolt were, apparently, stamped out in Western
Russia by the aid of the German Government in 1906.
13
between the minimum and maximum of sun-spots, and it
was to be expected that the scene would suddenly shift
back to the northern countries. In the spring of 1914 a
general strike of a political nature (demanding abolition
of the three-class system of voting) took place in
Belgium, forcing the Belgian government to appoint a
commission to revise the electoral laws. The Socialists in
Prussia made similar demands, and, when met with the
usual Prussian disdain, replied "Wir werden belgisch
reden" (we will talk Belgian). The German Socialists
began to show openly their contempt for the Kaiser,3 and
the prospect of a German revolution loomed near, The
Irish were arming. There was also strong tendency toward
revolution in many other European nations.
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many 24-hour and 48-hour ultimatums were sent, and the
war spread over almost all of Europe within the space of
one week.
___________
1
For various reasons I need not here specify, I do not
agree with the theory of industrial crises advanced by
15
Jevons.
2
Table of sunspot variations:
Maxim
Minima
a
1816 1811
1828 1822
1839 1834
1850 1845
1861 1856
1872 1867
---- ----
1894 1889
1905 1900
1916 1911
3
See Prince, "The Psychology of the Kaiser."
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