Notes

You should also draw on the Abelkop / Fitzmier labs Deep Sea
Exploration files. Many of those cards dont apply to this aff, but
some do.

1AC

Plan
The United States Federal Government should increase its
biomedical exploration of ocean microbes.

Pandemics
Contention 1: Pandemics
We are entering an era of global diseases that will kill humans and
destroy biodiversity
Kock 13 R. A. Kock of the Department of Pathology and Pathobiology, Royal Veterinary
College, Hawkshead Lane Hatfield, UK (23 October 2013, "Will the damage be done before we
feel the heat? Infectious disease emergence, Cambridge University Press 2013 Animal Health
Research Reviews 14(2); 127132, ISSN 1466-2523, doi:10.1017/S1466252313000108, ADL)
This initial progress in resolving age-old infectious disease problems might well turn out to be a false dawn. If we take a broader view on

There are a growing

number of diseases at the interface between humans, animals and the environment (including
plants), which are having a significant impact on human well-being, mostly through food systems. For
example, the USA has suffered a series of highly significant and costly disease epidemics in the last decade West Nile Virus
disease at the ecosystem level, rather than human infection alone, the situation is not looking so promising.

(WNV) in New York City, which subsequently spread to all 48 States of the continental USA, caused mortalities and sickness in a wide
range of domestic animals, wild birds and people (Kilpatrick, 2011). Although the costs are still being calculated, WNV showed

how
rapidly such disease events can occur and there was nothing that could be done to stop
the epidemic . This was followed shortly after by another epidemic disease coined white nose syndrome affecting bats (Blehert et
al., 2009). This is caused by a fungus Geomyces destructans, most probably introduced by travelers and cavers (Warnecke et al., 2012),
which, to date, has killed an estimated 6.5 million bats. The consequences are a conservation crisis and a multi-billion dollar cost to the
agricultural industry from lost predation on agricultural pests, a significant ecosystem service provided by bats (Boyles et al., 2011).
Similarly, a

global insidious spread of a fungal disease of amphibians is resulting in an unexpected

and premature extinction crisis, long before the planet heats up (Berger et al., 1998; Rosenblum et al., 2010). Over a
third of amphibian species are expected to disappear in the coming years but these extinctions are not only a result of this disease (Heard
et al., 2011). These

taxa have provided significant unappreciated benefits to humanity through

the control of mosquitos and other vectors of serious infectious diseases. Moreover, if this is not
enough, there are numerous tree diseases that are spreading globally, some fungal and others insect-based, which are devastating
woodlands and individual tree species populations in North America and Europe with wide spread economic consequences. It seems the

rapid increase in transportation networks and frequency of human and animal movements
by air and sea, a consequence of free market capitalism and globalization, has created a perfect storm for
infectious disease emergence across ecosystems (Brown, 2004). It is rather like humans
picking up Pandoras box, giving it a thorough shake, and then sending its contents to
every corner of the earth . A massive experiment in human-assisted pathogen evolution
and spread, gives every advantage to the microorganisms to gain access to
immunologically naive hosts and for them to gain dominance over larger organisms, the latter
too sluggish in their ability to respond immunologically and adapt. This physical reassortment and distribution of
current pathogens alone could drive an era of plague and pestilence affecting most
biological taxa. Unfortunately the story does not stop here, human engineering of
landscapes and biological systems are associated with pathogen evolution and disease
emergence at the interface, but almost without exception the drivers are poorly researched (Jones et al., 2013). These events are not
all new but we are only just beginning to appreciate the extent of our influence on their
occurrence. Wolfe et al., 2007 elegantly described how several major human diseases, including smallpox, malaria,
campylobacteriosis, rotavirus, measles, diphtheria, mumps, HIV-AIDS and influenza virus, are derived from our domestication of animals
and/or harvesting of wild animals over the millennia. These diseases became firmly established in humans, no longer driven or dependent
on zoonotic cycles. This is on top of approximately 900 zoonotic infections recorded; of which about 292 are significant pathogens, most
associated with domestic animals but many originating from wildlife, sometimes directly (e.g. Ebola virus) (Cleaveland et al., 2001). It
seems that this process is accelerating, with the majority (75%) of emerging human pathogens being zoonotic (Taylor et al., 2001). The

trend in zoonotic disease emergence correlates with the expansion of domestic animal
populations in parallel to that of human growth. This has fundamentally altered the
epidemiological environment. Paradoxically, increasing animal production for human use, through industrialization of crop
and animal agriculture, has resulted in an increasing opportunity for pathogen evolution (Arzt et al.,
2010; Jones et al., 2013). These larger epidemiological units of plants and animals, with considerable homogeneity,
when densely packed (ironically for reasons of biosecurity and production efficiency) are perfect pathogen factories. The
recent bird flu panzootic is an example of this. The emergence of the atypical, highly pathogenic influenza virus H5N1 was coincident with

a massive expansion of the duck and poultry industry in South East Asia. Water birds are natural hosts of avian influenza viruses and are
highly tolerant of infection (Alexander, 2007). However, the growth in domestic duck farms including exploitation of semidomestic ducks in
close proximity to both wild bird populations and densely packed chicken farms, created an opportunity for the rapid evolution of this highly
virulent strain of avian influenza, its amplification and spread. H5N1 was first isolated in 1997 (Xu et al., 1999) with epidemics recorded in
Hong Kong in 1998 and with a significant wild bird epidemic between 2005 and 2007 (Chen et al., 2006). The infection spread rapidly
across Eurasia between poultry systems and as far as Egypt (Abdelwhab and Hafez, 2011) and Nigeria (Newman et al., 2008). Wild bird
cases reported appear to be mostly during epidemics or spillover cases from poultry epidemics (Feare and Yasue, 2006; Lebarbenchon et
al., 2010; Soliman et al., 2012), and wild bird epidemics appear to have been largely independent of domestic bird disease. The infections
burned out in wildlife with no evidence of a long-term reservoir and only rare cases based on circumstantial evidence of spillover from wild
birds to poultry (Hars et al., 2008), predators (Desvaux et al., 2009; Globig et al., 2009) and humans (bird hunters) (Newman et al., 2008).

The great fear has been that should this virus, which rarely infects humans, evolve into a form that
is highly transmissible among humans, it will then cause a severe pandemic . Whilst the immediate
threat has subsided, with apparent resilience in the wild bird populations to H5N1 increasing (Siembieda et al., 2010) and with mass
vaccination and slaughter of poultry providing temporary relief, endemic foci in domestic birds still persist. This strain of virus has been
recently joined by a new, more sinister low pathogenic strain (in poultry) of H7N9, which is lethal in humans and can be transmitted more
readily between humans than was the case with H5N1. The main reason for failure to stop the emergence of these diseases is the
continued expansion of agroecological systems and industry, which cause the problem in the first place. It is not always necessary to have
a farm for these spillover events, other concentrations of mixed animal species in e.g. food markets has led to emergence, exemplified by
the SARS epidemic. Here a bat virus was involved, most probably spilling into a market and replicating in (probably) a number of species,
adapting and amplifying until it was established in humans and an epidemic ensued. Globally, the virus infected approximately 8000 people
and caused several hundred deaths. The remarkable fact is that this pathogen jump probably only took a period of 23 years (Wang et al.,
2005; Zhao, 2007; Tang et al., 2009). Another important driver of disease at the interface has been changing landscapes, with increasing
incursion into and modification of diverse habitats for settlement and exploitation of resources. An example is the creation of new vector
niche habitats, mostly through urban development (Globig et al., 2009) enabling persistence and emergence of significant problems e.g.
dengue fever virus; once only found in primates (Mackenzie et al., 2004). HIV is the most famous example, where frequent spillover of SIV
to humans through their exploitation of chimpanzee and gorilla for food, resulted in the establishment of human infection and adaptation of
the virus (Gao et al., 1999). However, it was not until road networks were put into the Congo basin that the epidemic really took hold. There
were probably a series of stuttering epidemics until the virus entered the urban environment and then the world. It is sobering to note that
the African mortality statistics (WHO, 2012) indicate that, far from following the pattern in the Western world, the life expectancy from birth
in two of the richest nations, South Africa and Botswana, has significantly decreased between 1990 and 2010; and this was from the impact
of only one emerging disease, HIVAIDS.

What if we have ten novel diseases occurring simultaneously?

Biodiversity loss causes human extinction

Coyne, professor of ecology and evolution University of Chicago, and Hoekstra, associate
professor of biology Harvard, 9/24/7
(Jerry and John L., The Greatest Dying, http://www.truthout.org/article/jerry-coyne-and-hopi-ehoekstra-the-greatest-dying)
But it isn't just the destruction of the rainforests that should trouble us. Healthy ecosystems the
world over provide hidden services like waste disposal, nutrient cycling, soil formation, water
purification, and oxygen production. Such services are best rendered by ecosystems that are
diverse. Yet, through both intention and accident, humans have introduced exotic species that
turn biodiversity into monoculture. Fast-growing zebra mussels, for example, have outcompeted
more than 15 species of native mussels in North America's Great Lakes and have damaged
harbors and water-treatment plants. Native prairies are becoming dominated by single species
(often genetically homogenous) of corn or wheat. Thanks to these developments, soils will erode
and become unproductive - which, along with temperature change, will diminish agricultural
yields. Meanwhile, with increased pollution and runoff, as well as reduced forest cover,
ecosystems will no longer be able to purify water; and a shortage of clean water spells disaster.
In many ways, oceans are the most vulnerable areas of all. As overfishing eliminates major
predators, while polluted and warming waters kill off phytoplankton, the intricate aquatic food web
could collapse from both sides. Fish, on which so many humans depend, will be a fond memory.
As phytoplankton vanish, so does the ability of the oceans to absorb carbon dioxide and produce
oxygen. (Half of the oxygen we breathe is made by phytoplankton, with the rest coming from land
plants.) Species extinction is also imperiling coral reefs - a major problem since these reefs have
far more than recreational value: They provide tremendous amounts of food for human
populations and buffer coastlines against erosion. In fact, the global value of "hidden" services
provided by ecosystems - those services, like waste disposal, that aren't bought and sold in the
marketplace - has been estimated to be as much as $50 trillion per year, roughly equal to the
gross domestic product of all countries combined. And that doesn't include tangible goods like
fish and timber. Life as we know it would be impossible if ecosystems collapsed. Yet that is where
we're heading if species extinction continues at its current pace. Extinction also has a huge
impact on medicine. Who really cares if, say, a worm in the remote swamps of French Guiana

goes extinct? Well, those who suffer from cardiovascular disease. The recent discovery of
a rare South American leech has led to the isolation of a powerful enzyme that, unlike
other anticoagulants, not only prevents blood from clotting but also dissolves existing clots. And
it's not just this one species of worm: Its wriggly relatives have evolved other biomedically
valuable proteins, including antistatin (a potential anticancer agent), decorsin and ornatin (platelet
aggregation inhibitors), and hirudin (another anticoagulant). Plants, too, are pharmaceutical gold
mines. The bark of trees, for example, has given us quinine (the first cure for malaria), taxol (a
drug highly effective against ovarian and breast cancer), and aspirin. More than a quarter of the
medicines on our pharmacy shelves were originally derived from plants. The sap of the
Madagascar periwinkle contains more than 70 useful alkaloids, including vincristine, a
powerful anticancer drug that saved the life of one of our friends. Of the roughly 250,000
plant species on Earth, fewer than 5 percent have been screened for pharmaceutical properties.
Who knows what life-saving drugs remain to be discovered? Given current extinction rates, it's
estimated that we're losing one valuable drug every two years. Our arguments so far have tacitly
assumed that species are worth saving only in proportion to their economic value and their effects
on our quality of life, an attitude that is strongly ingrained, especially in Americans. That is why
conservationists always base their case on an economic calculus. But we biologists know in our
hearts that there are deeper and equally compelling reasons to worry about the loss of
biodiversity: namely, simple morality and intellectual values that transcend pecuniary interests.
What, for example, gives us the right to destroy other creatures? And what could be more thrilling
than looking around us, seeing that we are surrounded by our evolutionary cousins, and realizing
that we all got here by the same simple process of natural selection? To biologists, and
potentially everyone else, apprehending the genetic kinship and common origin of all species is a
spiritual experience - not necessarily religious, but spiritual nonetheless, for it stirs the soul. But,
whether or not one is moved by such concerns, it is certain that our future is bleak if we do
nothing to stem this sixth extinction. We are creating a world in which exotic diseases
flourish but natural medicinal cures are lost; a world in which carbon waste accumulates
while food sources dwindle; a world of sweltering heat, failing crops, and impure water. In the
end, we must accept the possibility that we ourselves are not immune to extinction. Or, if we
survive, perhaps only a few of us will remain, scratching out a grubby existence on a devastated
planet. Global warming will seem like a secondary problem when humanity finally faces the
consequences of what we have done to nature: not just another Great Dying, but perhaps the
greatest dying of them all.

New zoonotic diseases are inevitable they will go global

Karesh et al 12 - Dr William B Karesh, Prof Andy Dobson DPhil, Prof James O Lloyd-Smith
PhD, Juan Lubroth DVM h, Matthew A Dixon MSc i, Prof Malcolm Bennett PhD j, Stephen Aldrich
BA k, Todd Harrington MBA k, Pierre Formenty DVM l, Elizabeth H Loh MS a, Catherine C
Machalaba MPH a, Mathew Jason Thomas MPH m, Prof David L Heymann MD i n (1/12/2012,
"Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories,"
www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(12)61678-X/fulltext, ADL)
More than 60% of human infectious diseases are caused by pathogens shared with wild or
domestic animals. Zoonotic disease organisms include those that are endemic in human populations or enzootic in animal populations
with frequent cross-species transmission to people. Some of these diseases have only emerged recently.
Together, these organisms are responsible for a substantial burden of disease , with endemic and
enzootic zoonoses causing about a billion cases of illness in people and millions of deaths every year.
Emerging zoonoses are a growing threat to global health and have caused hundreds of
billions of US dollars of economic damage in the past 20 years. We aimed to review how zoonotic
diseases result from natural pathogen ecology, and how other circumstances, such as animal production, extraction of natural resources,

a
more effective approach to zoonotic disease prevention and control will require a broad
view of medicine that emphasises evidence-based decision making and integrates ecological and
evolutionary principles of animal, human, and environmental factors. This broad view is
and antimicrobial application change the dynamics of disease exposure to human beings. In view of present anthropogenic trends,

essential for the successful development of policies and practices that reduce probability
of future zoonotic emergence, targeted surveillance and strategic prevention, and
engagement of partners outside the medical community to help improve health outcomes
and reduce disease threats. This is the first in a Series of three papers about zoonoses Introduction Pathogens shared with
wild or domestic animals cause more than 60% of infectious diseases in man.1 Such pathogens and diseases include leptospirosis,
cysticercosis and echinococcosis, toxoplasmosis, anthrax, brucellosis, rabies, Q fever, Chagas disease, type A influenzas, Rift Valley fever,
severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Ebola haemorrhagic fever, and the original emergence of HIV.26 Zoonotic diseases are
often categorised according to their route of transmission (eg, vector-borne or foodborne), pathogen type (eg, microparasites,
macroparasites, viruses, bacteria, protozoa, worms, ticks, or fleas), or degree of person-to-person transmissibility.7 The greatest burden on
human health and livelihoods, amounting to about 1 billion cases of illness and millions of deaths every year, is caused by endemic
zoonoses that are persistent regional health problems around the world.2 Many of these infections are enzootic (ie, stably established) in
animal populations, and transmit from animals to people with little or no subsequent person-to-person transmissionfor example, rabies or
trypanosomiasis. Other zoonotic pathogens can spread efficiently between people once introduced from an animal reservoir, leading to
localised outbreaks (eg, Ebola virus) or global spread (eg, pandemic influenza). Zoonoses

made up most of the

emerging infectious diseases identified in people in the past 70 years which, although relatively
rare compared with endemic zoonoses, are a substantial threat to global health and have caused economic damage
exceeding hundreds of billions of US dollars in the past 20 years.8, 9 Apart from the appearance of a pathogen for the first time in human
beings, the distinction between endemic and emerging zoonoses can be viewed as temporal or geographical. An endemic disease in one
location would be regarded as an emerging disease if it crossed from its natural reservoir and entered the human or animal populations in a
new geographical area, or if an endemic pathogen evolved new traits that created an epidemic (eg, drug resistance). Key messages Nearly
two-thirds of human infectious diseases arise from pathogens shared with wild or domestic animals Endemic and enzootic zoonoses cause
about a billion cases of illness in people and millions of deaths every year, and emerging zoonoses are a rising threat to global health,

Ecological and evolutionary

perspectives can provide valuable insights into pathogen ecology and can inform
zoonotic disease-control programmes Anthropogenic practices, such as changes in land use and extractive industry
actions, animal production systems, and widespread antimicrobial applications affect zoonotic disease transmission Risks are not
limited to low-income countries; as global trade and travel expands, zoonoses are
increasingly posing health concerns for the global medical community Ecological,
evolutionary, social, economic, and epidemiological mechanisms affecting zoonoses'
persistence and emergence are not well understood; such information could inform
evidence-based policies, practices, and targeted zoonotic disease surveillance, and
prevention and control efforts Multisectoral collaboration, including clinicians, public health scientists, ecologists and
having caused hundreds of billions of US dollars of economic damage in the past 20 years

disease ecologists, veterinarians, economists, and others is necessary for effective management of the causes and prevention of zoonotic
diseases Transmission of pathogens into human populations from other species is a natural product of our relation with animals and the
environment. The emergence of zoonoses, both recent and historical, can be considered as a logical consequence of pathogen ecology
and evolution, as microbes exploit new niches and adapt to new hosts. The underlying causes that create or provide access to these new
niches seem to be mediated by human action in most cases, and include changes in land use, extraction of natural resources, animal
production systems, modern transportation, antimicrobial drug use, and global trade. Although underlying ecological principles that shape
how these pathogens survive and change have remained similar, people have changed the environment in which these principles operate.
Domestication of animals, clearing of land for farming and grazing, and hunting of wildlife in new habitats, have resulted in zoonotic human
infection with microorganisms that cause diseases such as rabies, echinococcosis, and the progenitors of measles and smallpox that had
historically affected only animal populations through changes in contact and increased transmission opportunities from animals to
people.1012 As human societies have developed, each era of livestock revolution presented new health challenges and new
opportunities for emergence of zoonotic pathogens.13 In

the past few decades, accelerating global changes

linked to an expanding global population have led to the emergence of a striking number
of newly described zoonoses, including hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, monkeypox,
SARS, and simian immunodeficiency virus (the animal precursor to HIV). Some of these zoonoses, such as HIV,
have become established as substantial new human pathogens that circulate persistently without repeat animal-to-person transmission.
SARS could have established, but was contained by rapid global response to its emergence;14 other zoonoses, such as Ebola virus and
Nipah virus, have not become established because of local control efforts or their intrinsic inability to transmit efficiently between people.
However, others such as hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, which is enzootic in rodents in many locations, cause sporadic and infrequent
clusters of infections in human beings.15 In all cases, these emerging zoonoses are defined by their relatively recent appearance (or
detection) in a population or, in some cases, an amplification of transmission that increases the incidence, prevalence, or geographical
distribution of previously rare pathogens.15 Emergence of a zoonosis depends on several factors that often act simultaneously to change
pathogen dynamics. The capacity of a pathogen to transmit or spread in a population is commonly quantified by the basic reproduction
number, or R0 (panel 1). In addition to inherent properties of the pathogen, factors affecting emergence or spread include environmental
factors or changes in land use, human population growth, changes to human behaviour or social structure, international travel or trade,
microbial adaptation to drug or vaccine use or to new host species, and breakdown in public health infrastructure. 17

With more
than a billion international travellers every year, infected individuals could potentially
spread zoonotic diseases anywhere in the world . Thus, with the emergence of new infectious
diseases and the chronic presence of known zoonotic diseases in many low-income and
middle-income countries that might or might not be adequately diagnosed or reported,
zoonoses are increasingly relevant to the global medical community.

Zoonoses cause human extinction different from other diseases

Quammen, award-winning science writer, long-time columnist for Outside magazine, writer for
National Geographic, Harper's, Rolling Stone, the New York Times Book Review and others,
9/29/2012
(David, Could the next big animal-to-human disease wipe us out?, The Guardian, pg. 29, Lexis)
Infectious disease is all around us. It's one of the basic processes that ecologists study, along
with predation and competition. Predators are big beasts that eat their prey from outside.
Pathogens (disease-causing agents, such as viruses) are small beasts that eat their prey from
within. Although infectious disease can seem grisly and dreadful, under ordinary conditions, it's
every bit as natural as what lions do to wildebeests and zebras. But conditions aren't always
ordinary.
Just as predators have their accustomed prey, so do pathogens. And just as a lion might
occasionally depart from its normal behaviour - to kill a cow instead of a wildebeest, or a human
instead of a zebra - so a pathogen can shift to a new target. Aberrations occur. When a
pathogen leaps from an animal into a person, and succeeds in establishing itself as an infectious
presence, sometimes causing illness or death, the result is a zoonosis.
It's a mildly technical term, zoonosis, unfamiliar to most people, but it helps clarify the biological
complexities behind the ominous headlines about swine flu, bird flu, Sars, emerging diseases in
general, and the threat of a global pandemic. It's a word of the future, destined for heavy use in
the 21st century.
Ebola and Marburg are zoonoses. So is bubonic plague. So was the so-called Spanish influenza
of 1918-1919, which had its source in a wild aquatic bird and emerged to kill as many as 50
million people. All of the human influenzas are zoonoses. As are monkeypox, bovine tuberculosis,
Lyme disease, West Nile fever, rabies and a strange new affliction called Nipah encephalitis,
which has killed pigs and pig farmers in Malaysia. Each of these zoonoses reflects the action of a
pathogen that can "spillover", crossing into people from other animals.
Aids is a disease of zoonotic origin caused by a virus that, having reached humans through a few accidental events in western and central
Africa, now passes human-to-human. This form of interspecies leap is not rare; about 60% of all human infectious diseases currently known
either cross routinely or have recently crossed between other animals and us. Some of those - notably rabies - are familiar, widespread and
still horrendously lethal, killing humans by the thousands despite centuries of efforts at coping with their effects. Others are new and
inexplicably sporadic, claiming a few victims or a few hundred, and then disappearing for years.
Zoonotic pathogens can hide. The least conspicuous strategy is to lurk within what's called a reservoir host: a living organism that carries
the pathogen while suffering little or no illness. When a disease seems to disappear between outbreaks, it's often still lingering nearby,
within some reservoir host. A rodent? A bird? A butterfly? A bat? To reside undetected is probably easiest wherever biological diversity is
high and the ecosystem is relatively undisturbed. The converse is also true: ecological disturbance causes diseases to emerge. Shake a
tree and things fall out.
Michelle Barnes is an energetic, late 40s-ish woman, an avid rock climber and cyclist. Her auburn hair, she told me cheerily, came from a
bottle. It approximates the original colour, but the original is gone. In 2008, her hair started falling out; the rest went grey "pretty much
overnight". This was among the lesser effects of a mystery illness that had nearly killed her during January that year, just after she'd
returned from Uganda.
Her story paralleled the one Jaap Taal had told me about Astrid, with several key differences - the main one being that Michelle Barnes was
still alive. Michelle and her husband, Rick Taylor, had wanted to see mountain gorillas, too. Their guide had taken them through
Maramagambo Forest and into Python Cave. They, too, had to clamber across those slippery boulders. As a rock climber, Barnes said, she
tends to be very conscious of where she places her hands. No, she didn't touch any guano. No, she was not bumped by a bat. By late
afternoon they were back, watching the sunset. It was Christmas evening 2007.
They arrived home on New Year's Day. On 4 January, Barnes woke up feeling as if someone had driven a needle into her skull. She was
achy all over, feverish. "And then, as the day went on, I started developing a rash across my stomach." The rash spread. "Over the next 48
hours, I just went down really fast."
By the time Barnes turned up at a hospital in suburban Denver, she was dehydrated; her white blood count was imperceptible; her kidneys
and liver had begun shutting down. An infectious disease specialist, Dr Norman K Fujita, arranged for her to be tested for a range of
infections that might be contracted in Africa. All came back negative, including the test for Marburg.
Gradually her body regained strength and her organs began to recover. After 12 days, she left hospital, still weak and anaemic, still
undiagnosed. In March she saw Fujita on a follow-up visit and he had her serum tested again for Marburg. Again, negative. Three more
months passed, and Barnes, now grey-haired, lacking her old energy, suffering abdominal pain, unable to focus, got an email from a
journalist she and Taylor had met on the Uganda trip, who had just seen a news article. In the Netherlands, a woman had died of Marburg
after a Ugandan holiday during which she had visited a cave full of bats.
Barnes spent the next 24 hours Googling every article on the case she could find. Early the following Monday morning, she was back at Dr
Fujita's door. He agreed to test her a third time for Marburg. This time a lab technician crosschecked the third sample, and then the first
sample.
The new results went to Fujita, who called Barnes: "You're now an honorary infectious disease doctor. You've self-diagnosed, and the
Marburg test came back positive."
The Marburg virus had reappeared in Uganda in 2007. It was a small outbreak, affecting four miners, one of whom died, working at a site
called Kitaka Cave. But Joosten's death, and Barnes's diagnosis, implied a change in the potential scope of the situation. That local
Ugandans were dying of Marburg was a severe concern - sufficient to bring a response team of scientists in haste. But if tourists, too, were
involved, tripping in and out of some python-infested Marburg repository, unprotected, and then boarding their return flights to other
continents, the place was not just a peril for Ugandan miners and their families. It was also an international threat.
The first team of scientists had collected about 800 bats from Kitaka Cave for dissecting and sampling, and marked and released more than
1,000, using beaded collars coded with a number. That team, including scientist Brian Amman, had found live Marburg virus in five bats.

Entering Python Cave after Joosten's death, another team of scientists, again including Amman, came across one of the beaded collars
they had placed on captured bats three months earlier and 30 miles away.
"It confirmed my suspicions that these bats are moving," Amman said - and moving not only through the forest but from one roosting site to
another. Travel of individual bats between far-flung roosts implied circumstances whereby Marburg virus might ultimately be transmitted all
across Africa, from one bat encampment to another. It voided the comforting assumption that this virus is strictly localised. And it
highlighted the complementary question: why don't outbreaks of Marburg virus disease happen more often? Marburg is only one instance
to which that question applies. Why not more Ebola? Why not more Sars?

In the case of Sars, the scenario could have been very much worse. Apart from the 2003
outbreak and the aftershock cases in early 2004, it hasn't recurred. . . so far. Eight thousand
cases are relatively few for such an explosive infection; 774 people died, not 7 million. Several
factors contributed to limiting the scope and impact of the outbreak, of which humanity's good
luck was only one. Another was the speed and excellence of the laboratory diagnostics - finding
the virus and identifying it. Still another was the brisk efficiency with which cases were isolated,
contacts were traced and quarantine measures were instituted, first in southern China, then in
Hong Kong, Singapore, Hanoi and Toronto. If the virus had arrived in a different sort of big city more loosely governed, full of poor people, lacking first-rate medical institutions - it might have
burned through a much larger segment of humanity.
One further factor, possibly the most crucial, was inherent in the way Sars affects the human
body: symptoms tend to appear in a person before, rather than after, that person becomes highly
infectious. That allowed many Sars cases to be recognised, hospitalised and placed in isolation
before they hit their peak of infectivity. With influenza and many other diseases, the order is
reversed. That probably helped account for the scale of worldwide misery and death during the
1918-1919 influenza. And that infamous global pandemic occurred in the era before globalisation.
Everything nowadays moves around the planet faster, including viruses. When the Next Big One
comes, it will likely conform to the same perverse pattern as the 1918 influenza: high
infectivity preceding notable symptoms. That will help it move through cities and airports like an
angel of death.
The Next Big One is a subject that disease scientists around the world often address. The most
recent big one is Aids, of which the eventual total bigness cannot even be predicted - about 30
million deaths, 34 million living people infected, and with no end in sight. Fortunately, not every
virus goes airborne from one host to another. If HIV-1 could, you and I might already be dead. If
the rabies virus could, it would be the most horrific pathogen on the planet. The influenzas
are well adapted for airborne transmission, which is why a new strain can circle the world within
days. The Sars virus travels this route, too, or anyway by the respiratory droplets of sneezes and
coughs - hanging in the air of a hotel corridor, moving through the cabin of an aeroplane - and
that capacity, combined with its case fatality rate of almost 10%, is what made it so scary in 2003
to the people who understood it best.
Human-to-human transmission is the crux. That capacity is what separates a bizarre, awful, localised, intermittent and
mysterious disease (such as Ebola) from a global pandemic. Have you noticed the persistent, low-level buzz about avian influenza, the
strain known as H5N1, among disease experts over the past 15 years? That's because avian flu worries them deeply, though it hasn't
caused many human fatalities. Swine flu comes and goes periodically in the human population (as it came and went during 2009),
sometimes causing a bad pandemic and sometimes (as in 2009) not so bad as expected; but avian flu resides in a different category of
menacing possibility. It worries the flu scientists because they know that H5N1 influenza is extremely virulent in people, with a high lethality.
As yet, there have been a relatively low number of cases, and it is poorly transmissible, so far, from human to human. It'll kill you if you
catch it, very likely, but you're unlikely to catch it except by butchering an infected chicken. But if H5N1 mutates or reassembles itself in just
the right way, if it adapts for human-to-human transmission, it could become the biggest and fastest killer disease since 1918.
It got to Egypt in 2006 and has been especially problematic for that country. As of August 2011, there were 151 confirmed cases, of which
52 were fatal. That represents more than a quarter of all the world's known human cases of bird flu since H5N1 emerged in 1997. But
here's a critical fact: those unfortunate Egyptian patients all seem to have acquired the virus directly from birds. This indicates that the virus
hasn't yet found an efficient way to pass from one person to another.
Two aspects of the situation are dangerous, according to biologist Robert Webster. The first is that Egypt, given its recent political
upheavals, may be unable to staunch an outbreak of transmissible avian flu, if one occurs. His second concern is shared by influenza
researchers and public health officials around the globe: with all that mutating, with all that contact between people and their infected birds,
the virus could hit upon a genetic configuration making it highly transmissible among people.

"As long as H5N1 is out there in the world," Webster told me, "there is the possibility of
disaster. . . There is the theoretical possibility that it can acquire the ability to transmit human-tohuman." He paused. "And then God help us."
We're unique in the history of mammals. No other primate has ever weighed upon the planet to
anything like the degree we do. In ecological terms, we are almost paradoxical: large-bodied and
long-lived but grotesquely abundant. We are an outbreak.
And here's the thing about outbreaks: they end. In some cases they end after many years, in
others they end rather soon. In some cases they end gradually, in others they end with a crash. In
certain cases, they end and recur and end again. Populations of tent caterpillars, for example,

seem to rise steeply and fall sharply on a cycle of anywhere from five to 11 years. The crash
endings are dramatic, and for a long while they seemed mysterious. What could account for such
sudden and recurrent collapses? One possible factor is infectious disease, and viruses in
particular.

Disease has played a role in every state collapse in history

pandemics go nuclear
Morris, professor of history at Stanford University, 3/22/2013
(Ian, The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations,
Carnegie Council, Lexis)
There are several periods when we get discontinuities, when we get collapses in social
development scores. You can see several very clear examples on this graph.
When we look back at the history of what happens when we get these great collapses in social
development, every time we see the same five forces involved:
Mass migrations that the societies of the day cannot cope with. This is always in the mix. The
mass migrations often lead to huge epidemic diseases, as previously separate disease pools get
merged. Epidemic diseases regularly killing half the population, it would seem, tend to lead to
state failure. Governments cannot cope with catastrophe on this scale. The collapse of the
governments tends to lead to breakdown in long-distance trade. Famines ensue, many, many
more people die. And then, always there in the mix in some way, although it varies in every case,
is climate change. It always plays into this. Now, I'm sure you don't need me to tell you these are
forces that plenty of people are talking about as threats we are facing in the early 21st century.
It seems to me perfectly possible that the 21st century is going to see another collapse of the kind
we have seen so many times in the past. So in some ways it's possible the 21st century might be
a rerun of what has happened many times beforebut with one big difference: We now have
nuclear weapons, which ancient people didn't have. The Romans would have loved nuclear
weapons. Luckily, they didn't have them. I think if we do stumble into a collapse on the scale that
I'm talking about here, we should seriously expect there is a possibility of these being used. It's
quite possible that the 21st century will see a disaster that dwarfs anything we have seen earlier.

Antibiotic Resistance
Contention 2: Antibiotic Resistance
Superbugs are a ticking time bomb without new antibiotics
The Week 4/1 The Week is a weekly news magazine, Antibiotic-resistant bacteria 'pose risk
of pandemic', 4/1/14, http://www.theweek.co.uk/health-science/58362/antibiotic-resistantbacteria-pose-risk-pandemic//OF
THE World Health Organisation [WHO] has warned that antibiotic-resistant bacteria have
now spread to every part of the world, giving rise to the potential for a series of untreatable epidemics. Its
report says that global misuse of antibiotics has increased the number of drug-resistant superbugs, which can
render curable diseases lethal again. "The world is headed for a post-antibiotic era where
common infections and minor injuries will kill once again," said Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for
health security at the WHO. The study, which is the first of its kind, correlated data from 114 different countries to
measure resistance to antibiotics. It focused on bacteria that cause common but serious diseases. In some countries,
treatment is ineffective in more than half the cases of E. coli, The Guardian reports, as the
bacteria is now resistant to the fluoroquinolone antibiotics used to treat it. In the UK, the report found
high rates of resistance in gonorrhoea. Carmen Pessoa Da Silva, the doctor who leads the WHO's programme, says: "If
no action is taken to reduce the spread of resistance and find new solutions, we will reach a point
where some infections will no-longer be treatable." When antibiotics entered widespread use in the
1950s they have were regarded as a miracle cure, but no new antibiotic drug has been discovered in
more than 30 years. According to New Scientist, pharmaceutical companies are unwilling to invest large sums in
developing new drugs that are used only for brief courses of treatment. In 2013 Britain's Chief Medical Officer, Dr Sally
Davies, described antibiotic resistance as "a ticking time bomb" that posed a similar threat to
terrorism, CBS reports.

Scenario 1 is CRE:
Its everywhere
Reuters 2013 Reuters is a news organization that focuses on international news, Doctors
warned to be vigilant for warn new deadly virus sweeping the globe from Middle East, 3/8/13,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2290033/Doctors-warned-vigilant-warn-new-deadly-virussweeping-globe-Middle-East.html//OF
Warnings of the deadly virus come as the CDC announced concerns over an increasing number of
infections from a 'nightmare bacteria' found in U.S. hospitals. Public health officials have warned that in a
growing number of cases existing antibiotics do not work against the superbug, CarbapenemResistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). Patients became infected with the bacteria in nearly four per
cent of US hospitals and in almost 18 per cent of specialist medical facilities in the first
half of 2012, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Dr Tom Frieden, director of the
CDC, said in a statement that the strongest antibiotics 'don't work and patients are left with
potentially untreatable infections. ' He said scientists were 'raising the alarm' over the
problem following increasing concern. Increasing numbers of patients in US hospitals have become infected
with CRE, which kills up to half of patients who get bloodstream infections from them, according to a new CDC report.
Some of the more than 70 types of Enterobacteriaceae bacteria - including E-coli - have become
gradually resistant over a long period of time, even to so-called, 'last resort drugs' called
carbapenem. During the last 10 years, the percentage of Enterobacteriaceae that are resistant to

these last-ditch antibiotics rose by 400 percent. One type of CRE has increased by a factor
of seven over the last decade, Fox News reports. CRE infections usually affect patients being treated for serious
conditions in hospitals, long-term acute-care facilities and nursing homes. Many of these people will use catheters or
ventilators as part of their treatment - which are thought to be used by bacteria to enter deep into the patient's body.

And it decimates the global population

Adams 7/17 Mark Adams (Citing Doctors and the CDC) is a reporter for Naturalnews.com, an
online news source specializing in medicine and natural sciences, Drug-resistant superbug
infections explode across U.S. hospitals: 500% increase foreshadows 'new plague' caused by
modern medicine, 7/17/14, Natural News,
http://www.naturalnews.com/046041_CRE_superbugs_drugresistant_infections_modern_plague.html#//OF
(NaturalNews) Drug-resistant superbug infections have reached near-epidemic levels across
U.S. hospitals, with an alarming 500% increase now documented in a study just published in the
August issue of Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology (the journal of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of
America). (1) Lead author of the study, Dr. Joshua Thaden, warned "This dangerous bacteria is finding its

way into healthcare facilities nationwide... A CRE epidemic is fast approaching... Even this
marked increase likely underestimates the true scope of the problem given variations in hospital
surveillance practices." The study also found that an astonishing 94 percent of CRE infections were caused by healthcare
activities or hospital procedures. CRE superbugs explained CRE (carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae ) is an

incredibly dangerous superbug causing nearly a fifty percent fatality rate once a patient is
infected. The World Health Organization calls it "one of the three greatest threats to human health,"
and all known antibiotics are useless in treating it. CRE arose out of the systematic abuse of antibiotics
by doctors, who inadvertently created the perfect breeding ground for deadly bacteria by using narrowly-targeted chemical
medications that lack the kind of full-spectrum action found in nature (in herbs like garlic, for example). Because of their
highly-targeted chemical approach, antibiotics encouraged bacteria to develop molecular defenses that resulted in
widespread resistance to Big Pharma's drugs. The situation is so bad today that the entire pharmaceutical

industry has no drug, no chemicals and no experimental medicines which can kill CRE
superbugs. Even worse, there are virtually no new antibiotics drugs in the research pipelines, either. Drug companies
have discovered that it's far more profitable to sell "lifestyle management" drugs like statin drugs and blood pressure
drugs than to sell antibiotics which treat acute infections. Antibiotics simply aren't very profitable because relatively few
people acquire such infections. Meanwhile, everyone can be convinced they might have high cholesterol and therefore
need to take a statin drug for life. Drug companies, in other words, have all but abandoned the industry of treating
infections. Instead, they now primarily engage in the promotion of disease symptoms while selling drugs that attempt to
alter measurable markers of those symptoms such as cholesterol numbers. Even though drug companies caused the
superbug pandemic that's now upon us, in other words, they have deliberately abandoned humanity in defending against
those superbugs because it's simply not profitable to do so. The end of antibiotics has arrived: Humanity faces a
new plague caused by modern medicine The CDC has admitted that we are now living in a "post-antibiotics era." As
Infection Control Today states, " Antibiotic resistance is no longer a prediction for the future. It is
happening right now in every region of the world and has the potential to affect anyone ." (2)
Dr. Arjun Srinivasan, associate director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, went even further in a PBS
interview, stating: (3) We've reached the end of antibiotics, period... We're here. We're in the post-antibiotic era. There are
patients for whom we have no therapy, and we are literally in a position of having a patient in a bed who has an infection,
something that five years ago even we could have treated, but now we can't. Keep in mind that doctors refuse to use
natural substances to treat infections, which is why they believe no defenses against superbugs exist. Their indoctrination
into the world of pharmaceuticals is so deeply embedded in their minds, in other words, that they cannot even conceive of
the idea that an herb, a food or something from Mother Nature might provide the answer to superbugs. See this Natural
News article on natural antibiotics that kill superbugs. The list includes honey. Hospitals are the perfect breeding grounds
for superbugs By their very design, hospitals are prefect breeding grounds for superbugs for six very important reasons:
1) They put all the infected people under one roof, creating a high density infectious environment. 2) They allow doctors
and medical staff to quickly and easily carry and transmit infectious diseases to new patients. Previous studies have
documented how superbugs easily ride on doctors' ties, for example, or their mobile phones. 3) Medical staff still don't
wash their hands as frequently as they should. The intense time demands placed on them discourage careful hand
washing, causing many to skip this crucial step between patient visits. 4) Hospitals almost universally refuse to use broadspectrum antibacterial remedies which are not drugs. Natural substances like honey and garlic show extraordinary multifaceted antibacterial properties, as do certain metals such as silver and copper. Yet because these substances are not
developed by pharmaceutical companies which dominate the field of medical practice, they are simply ignored even
though they could save many lives. (And a doctor who prescribes "honey" doesn't sound as amazing and all-knowing as a
doctor who prescribes "the latest, greatest laboratory breakthrough patented chemical medication.") 5) Hospital practices
suppress human immune function to the point of systemic failure. Rather than boosting immune function, conventional
medical treatments such as antibiotics and chemotherapy cause immune system failure. Hospitals lack sunlight and
hospital food lacks key immune-boosting minerals such as zinc and selenium. On top of that, most of the drugs prescribed
to patients by hospitals deplete key nutrients required for healthy immune function, leaving patients even more susceptible
to superbug infections. 6) Hospital staff spread infectious diseases to their private homes. After acquiring an infection at
work (at the hospital), staffers easily spread those infections to their own family members at home. The antibiotics plague
is upon us We are right now living through the early stages of a global plague caused by modern

medicine. The industry that created this plague is utterly defenseless against it, leaving humanity to fight
for survival in a world that's now far more dangerous than the one that existed before the invention of antibiotics.
Antibiotics have indeed saved millions of lives, and they forever have an important place in any medical practice. Yet their
careless use -- combined with medicine's willful and foolish abandonment of natural antibiotics that work far better -- has
led humanity down the path of its own destruction. Today, a simple scrape of your arm or leg might now
be fatal. Infections that occur during routine medical procedures which would have once been considered minor issues
are now deadly. And the worst part is that the bacteria continue to evolve more elaborate defenses

against drugs while increasing their transmissibility. Human hospitals (and entire cities)
are, by design, ideal pandemic hubs that rapidly spread disease. Like it or not, humanity has created the
perfect storm for a pandemic decimation of the global population.

Scenario 2 is Tuberculosis:
Resistant TB causes extinction
PBS, funded by viewers like you, cites scientists, summarizes a documentary about science
generally reflects science, 2001
(http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/about.html)
"Survival of the fittest." Raw competition? Or, a level of cooperation indispensable to life?
Evolution tells us that both are important. We explore our own spiraling arms race with
microorganisms, the only entities that can pose a threat to our existence. We follow the
struggles of medical detectives uncovering the roots of epidemics and trace the alarming spread
of resistance among pathogens that cause disease, like the new virulent tuberculosis
nicknamed "Ebola with wings." Interactions between species are among the most powerful
evolutionary forces on earth, and understanding them may be key to our own survival.

And it collapses Russia

Tucker 2001 JONATHAN B. TUCKER is Director of the Chemical and Biological Weapons
Nonproliferation Program at the Monterey Institute, Contagious Fears; Infectious Disease and
National Security., 6/22/2001, Harvard International Review,
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/Harvard-International-Review/75213388.html//OF
In the short term, the NIE predicts that, in the hardest-hit countries of the developing and former
communist worlds, the persistent burden of infectious disease is likely to aggravate and
even provoke economic decay, social fragmentation, and political polarization. Already,
the collapse of public health systems in Russia and the former Soviet republics has led to
a dramatic rise in HIV infection and drug-resistant tuberculosis in those countries. By 2010, AIDS and malaria
combined will reduce the gross domestic products of several sub-Saharan African countries by 20 percent or more,
bringing these nations to the brink of economic collapse as they lose the most productive segment of their populations. If
current trends continue, a decade from now some 41.6 million children in 27 countries will have lost one or both parents to
AIDS, creating a "lost generation" of orphans with little hope of education or employment. These young people may
become marginalized or easily exploited for political ends, as in the increasingly pervasive phenomenon of the childsoldier, putting AIDS-stricken countries at risk of further economic decay, increased crime, and political instability. The
NIE suggests that by the year 2020, AIDS and tuberculosis will account for the overwhelming
majority of infectious disease deaths in the developing world. Nevertheless, a somewhat more
hopeful picture has emerged in recent months as growing political pressure has led multinational pharmaceutical
companies to lower the price of AIDS drugs sold to poor countries. The NIE on the global infectious disease threat
provides unsettling but enlightening reading. It strongly suggests that unless the United States helps to
contain the spread of infectious diseases such as AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis in the developing
and former communist worlds, the resulting socioeconomic collapse could require massive
infusions of emergency aid and perhaps even the deployment of US troops to restore order. The
Bush administration, which unlike its predecessor has shown little interest in nontraditional threats, would do well to heed
this warning.

That causes nuclear lashout

Blank December 13

Stephen, served as the Strategic Studies Institutes expert on the Soviet bloc and the post-Soviet
world from 1989 to 2013. Prior to that, he was Associate Professor of Soviet Studies at the
Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education, Maxwell Air Force Base, AL; he taught
at the University of Texas, San Antonio; and he taught at the University of California, Riverside,
POLITICS AND ECONOMICS IN PUTINS RUSSIA: WHAT DO THEY MEAN FOR THE U.S.
ARMY?, In SSIs POLITICS AND ECONOMICS IN PUTINS RUSSIA, ed. Blank
The defense and security implications of this dysfunctional and archaic system are equally negative.
Currently, there is a huge defense buildup that aims to spend $716 billion between now and 2020 to
make the Russian armed forces a competitive high-tech armed force, with 70 percent of its weapons
being modern (whatever that category means to Moscow). Yet this system already has shown repeatedly that
it cannot deliver the goods and that the attempt to remilitarize at this relatively breakneck speed
(relative to other comparable powers) is failing to produce the weapons Moscow wants. Consequently, it is
clear not only that nuclear weapons will remain the mainstay of Russian military might through 2020,
but it is also equally likely, from the current vantage point, that this nuclear preeminence will remain well
into the decade 2020-30 as well. This means that, for a whole range of contingencies, Moscow
will have to rely more than any other comparable power on nuclear threats and
deterrence, and deterrence presupposes a hostile relationship with the targets of that strategy. Apart from issues of
democracy promotion and regional security in Eurasia, this conclusion has sobering implications for U.S. defense policy
as a whole because it will place limits on what can be achieved through arms control treaties, obstruct the Barack Obama
administrations declared ambition to move on to a zero nuclear weapons trajectory, and inhibit a genuine military and
political partnership with Russia. Furthermore, given the postulate presented here of a deteriorating

domestic situation due to an increasingly sclerotic economic-political formation, we could well encounter a
situation where a revolutionary situation inside Russia due to the blockage of progress intersects with a
massive security crisis that could, as in 1991, involve a coup and the danger of seizure of nuclear
weapons and potential wars across Eurasia . Or, we could see a diversionary war as the Russo-Japanese
war was launched in part in order to busy giddy minds with foreign wars. Arguably, we are witnessing the first
signs in todays Russia of the advent of a long-term crisis culminating in such a domestic and then
international crisis. This crisis would combine mounting disaffection, if not protest, and continuing subpar
economic performance is a situation that approximates Vladimir Lenins 1915 definition of a revolutionary situation.
According to Lenins oft-quoted definition: What, generally speaking, are the symptoms of a revolutionary situation? We shall certainly not be mistaken if we indicate the following three major symptoms: (1) when it is impossible for the ruling
classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the upper classes, a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the
oppressed classes burst forth. For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for the lower classes not to want to live in the old way; it is also necessary that the upper classes should be unable to live in the old way; (2) when the
suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be

To be sure, none of
this suggests the imminence of a revolution. Rather, it suggests the imminence of a structural
crisis leading to the situation defined here by Lenin and which evermore characterized Tsarist Russia after
the great reforms of the 1860s and the Soviet state after Leonid Brezhnev. Neither we, nor any other
reputable observer, expect an imminent collapse of the Putin system . But Russia already appears
robbed in peace time, but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the upper classes themselves into independent historical action.13 (italics in original)

to be visibly bearing the seeds of its own entropy and ultimate collapse. Distinguished Russian scholars like Lilia
Shevtsova and Olga Kryshtanovskaya openly state that Russia has slipped into a revolutionary situation.14 That process
took some 50 years in Tsarist Russia and a generation in Soviet Russia, suggesting the acceleration of large-scale sociopolitical change and its growing department, even if we are talking about a long-gestating process. But if this assessment
has merit, then we are only at its inception, not its conclusion, and many more negative phenomena and Russian
behaviors can be expected before the advent of a crisis that could occur, if this acceleration of protest trends and
institutional entropy occur by 2030. Potential contingencies could even possibly entail the use of force
either at home (and not just in a counterinsurgency mode against jihadi rebels as in the North Caucasus) or
beyond Russias borders as in the Russo-Georgian war of 2008. Indeed, as the regime moves

further along its current trajectory, such belligerent behavior increasingly appears to be the
norm. As Andrei Illarionov, a former economic advisor to Putin, has observed: Since its outset, the Siloviki
regime has been aggressive. At first it focused on actively destroying centers of independent political, civil, and
economic life within Russia. Upon achieving those goals, the regimes aggressive behavior turned outward beyond
Russias borders. At least since the assassination of the former Chechen President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev in Doha,
Qatar, on 14 February 2004, aggressive behavior by SI (Siloviki-men of the structures of force-author) in the

international arena has become the rule rather than the exception. Over the last five years the
regime has waged ten different wars (most of them involving propaganda, intelligence operations, and
economic coercion rather than open military force) against neighbors and other foreign nations. The most recent
targets have included Ukraine (subjected to a second gas war in early 2009), the United States (subjected to
a years-long campaign to rouse anti-American sentiment), and, most notoriously, Georgia (actually bombed and invaded
in 2008). In addition to their internal psychological need to wage aggressive wars, a rational motive is also driving the
Siloviki to resort to conflict. War furnishes the best opportunities to distract domestic public opinion and

destroy the remnants of the political and intellectual opposition within Russia itself. An undemocratic
regime worried about the prospect of domestic economic social and political crisessuch as those that now haunt Russia
amid recession and falling oil prices is likely to be pondering further acts of aggression. The note I end on, therefore, is a
gloomy one: To me the probability that Siloviki Incorporated well be launching new wars seems
alarmingly high .15 Accordingly, even though no observer expects a comparable revolution anytime
soon, the signs of crisis are also quite visible for anyone who cares to look for them. At the same time,
the advent of social and information technologies, as well as Russias partial integration into the global economy,
suggests that any repeat performance will take even less time than this, so it is not inconceivable that within 10-20 years,
we could see a Russia openly enmeshed in a structural crisis from which there is no way out other than large-scale
transformation, if not revolution. Given Russias strategic weight and military capability, this prognosis
poses immense questions, if not problems, for the U.S. Government as a whole as it seeks to grapple with the
realities of Russian policy. Were this a monograph on the subject of U.S.-Russian relations, it would take a long report to
work through all those issues. But here, we must content ourselves with recommendations for the U.S. Army in its
activities. To do that, we must view the Army in its current strategic context.

Scenario 3 is agriculture:
Resistant disease collapses farming and results in global famine
Clark, professor of microbiology at Southern Illinois University, 2010
(David, Germs, Genes, and Civilization, p. 250-251)
One way to combat resistance is to replace old antibiotics with newly invented ones. Soon
after they were first discovered, there was a big rush to discover new antibiotics or modify old
ones chemically, yielding new variants. When most known bacterial diseases had cures,
complacency set in. Recently, drug resistance has hit the headlines and research has picked up
again. Although some new antibiotics are now in the pipeline, it takes several years to get a new
drug from laboratory to hospital. As new antibiotics are deployed, resistance will inevitably
appear. We can look forward to a permanent cold war between bacteria and pharmaceutical
companies.
Where do the resistance genes on plasmids come from? They are gifts from Mother Nature, like
most antibiotics. Long before humans isolated penicillin from the mold Penicillium, or
streptomycin from the bacterium Streptomyces, these antibiotics were deployed to wage
biological warfare in the soil. Bacteria and molds have been slugging it out for eons before
humans joined in the fray. Not only did microorganisms develop antibiotics to kill each other, but
they developed resistance mechanisms to counter each others attacks. Some bacterial cultures
stored before penicillin was discovered already had resistance genes. Thus, resistance to most
antibiotics probably predates their use by humans. Increased use has led to the spread of
these resistance genes.
Disease and the food supply
We have focused on human disease, but remember that livestock and crop plants suffer from
infections, too. Modern farmers tend to rely heavily on a few main crops, with little crop rotation.
Large areas of a single crop provide the same opportunities for plant diseases that
overcrowded cities provide for human infections. The warmer, wetter weather that is
becoming more prevalent favors fungal infections that attack plants. For example, wheat
scab outbreaks in the United States and Canada caused massive losses in the 1990s.
Decreased surpluses in the major grain exporters undermine the safety net for
overpopulated third world nations. If major drought in tropical areas such as Africa or India
coincides with major crop losses in the grain exporters, the result could be widespread famine.
In 2006-2007, world grain reserves fell to 57 days of consumption, the lowest since 1972.
Perhaps the most serious current threat to our food supply is the wheat rust fungus (Puccinia
graminis). A new and highly virulent strain emerged from Uganda in 1999 and was, therefore,
named Ug99. It is presently in Africa and parts of Asia. Because the spores are airborne, this
fungus will inevitably spread worldwide. Breeding resistant wheat varieties is in progress but
takes several years.
Overpopulation and microbial evolution

Overpopulation does not merely threaten starvation; it sets the scene for the evolution of new
infectious diseases. The more people there areand the more crowded, unhygienic, and
malnourished they arethe greater the opportunity for some new and virulent plague to
emerge. So far, we have kept ahead.

That causes World War 3

Calvin, theoretical neurophysiologist at the University of Washington, 1998
(William H., The Atlantic Monthly, v281 i1 pcover,47-50,52+, infotrac)
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would
cause some powerful countries to try to take over their neighbors or distant lands--if only
because their armies, unpaid and lacking food, would go marauding, both at home and
across the borders. The better-organized countries would attempt to use their armies, before
they fell apart entirely, to take over countries with significant remaining resources, driving out or
starving their inhabitants if not using modern weapons to accomplish the same end: eliminating
competitors for the remaining food. This would be a worldwide problem--and could lead to a
Third World War--but Europe's vulnerability is particularly easy to analyze. The last abrupt
cooling, the Younger Dryas, drastically altered Europe's climate as far east as Ukraine. Presentday Europe has more than 650 million people. It has excellent soils, and largely grows its own
food. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic.

Solvency
Contention 3: Solvency
Terrestrial research is failing only marine microbes solve for new
emerging diseases
Xiong et al 2013 - from the Key Laboratory of Synthetic Biology, Institute of Plant Physiology
and Ecology, Shanghai Institutesfor Biological Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Shanghai (Zhi-Qiang, Jian-Feng Wang, Yu-You Hao, Yong Wang, "Recent Advances in the
Discovery and Development of MarineMicrobial Natural Products," Mar. Drugs 2013, 11, 700717, doi:10.3390/md11030700, ISSN 1660-3397, ADL)
There is a perpetual need for new chemo-therapeutants, especially novel antibiotics, to
combat new diseases and drug-resistant pathogens that are becoming a significant threat
to public health [1]. The discovery and development of new drugs from natural products
(NPs) has played a significant role over the last few decades. Over 28% of the new chemical entities
and 42% of the anticancer drugs introduced into the market can be traced back to NPs [2]. In addition to plants and
animals, microorganisms are a major resource for the discovery of new drugs. More than
50,000 microbial natural products (MNPs) have been obtained and have played an important
role in drug discovery. The majority of these have been isolated from terrestrial-borne microbes [3]. However,

after 50 years of intensive screening from terrestrial-borne microbes, the pace of MNPs
discovery and development with a unique scaffold has dramatically declined over the last
two decades. Meanwhile, the emergence of severe resistance to antibiotics in microbial
pathogens, such as Gram-positive methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycinresistant S. aureus (VRSA), and the current increase in the number of new diseases/pathogens ,
e.g., Gram-negative New Delhi metallo-beta-lactmase(NMD-1) bacteria have caused a resurgence of
interest in the discovery of MNPs with unique scaffolds to meet the urgent demand for
new drugs. Recent trends in drug discovery emphasize that marine microorganisms are a
potentially productive source of novel secondary metabolites and have great potential to
increase the number of marine NPs in clinical trials [4]. In contrast to the terrestrial
environment, the oceans are a rich and relatively untapped reservoir of novel NPs . Over
15,000 structurally diverse NPs with an astounding assortment of bioactivities have been
identified from marine environments since the 1970s [5]. This diversity has attracted researchers to
screen MMNPs in drug discovery. Over 30 compounds derived from marine microbes such as didemnin B (Aplidine)and
thiocoraline are in clinical or preclinical studies for the treatment of different types of cancers [6].However, the search
for MMNPs has only just begun [6,7]. In this paper, we review the recent advances in MMNP discovery and
development, especially addressing two important topics: (i) isolation and cultivation approaches of marine
microorganisms, and (ii) strategies for the discovery and development of MMNPs

Ocean compounds are six times more likely to produce medicine

key to address resistance and zoonotic disease
Institute of Medicine Board on Population Health and Public Health Practice June 2014
(Roundtable on Environmental Health Sciences, Research, and Medicine, Understanding the
Connections Between Coastal Waters and Ocean Ecosystem Services and Human Health:
Workshop Summary, National Academies Press,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209255/)
There are many other types of diseases that are poorly treated, such as microbial
infections. Staphylococcus aureus, for example, has gone from being a highly sensitive strain to
an increasingly drug-resistant strain (methicillin-resistant S. aureus that is now encountered in the
community as well as in hospitals). It is a danger to population health, and current
pharmaceuticals do not work effectively against the infection (Chambers and DeLeo, 2009).

New pharmaceuticals are needed to treat these types of resistant organisms, Gerwick said.
New methods for their application are needed as well because the same problem will recur if
antibiotics continue to be used in the way they have in the past. Also newly emergent diseases,
particularly viral diseases, are being transmitted from wild animal populations to human
populations and giving rise to various diseases such as AIDS and many others. As humans
continue to erode the natural habitat, there will be more contact with wild animals and an
increased risk of viral diseases in the wild animal population transmitted to human populations.
Pharmaceuticals are derived from diverse sources, Gerwick explained. Of 1,355 new
approved drugs spanning the period 1981 to 2010, about 26 percent were derived from natural
products. A growing number of pharmaceuticals, about 21 percent, come from biologics or
vaccines. Just over half of pharmaceuticals are synthetic drugs, but it can be seen that in many
cases the synthetic chemist has looked to nature for an aspect of a molecule and then embedded
this special feature into another molecule of synthetic origin, which now has the needed
pharmaceutical properties. In this way, a majority of pharmaceuticals are in some sense
natural product derivatives or inspired by natural products (Newman and Cragg, 2012).
The Oceans Are a Productive Source of New Medicines
The marine environment and its unique life forms, with their myriad colors and shapes and
sizes and adaptations to underwater life, have been a tremendous resource of novel
chemistries, many of which have successfully been translated into new medicines.
Gerwick mentioned nine marine natural products, derivatives, or inspired agents approved by the
U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) or European Medicines Agency (EMEA) (see Figure 51). For example, there is a series of pure nucleosides deriving from sponges which has given rise
to three very useful anticancer agents and one antiviral agent. Then, there is a peptide used by
the cone snail to prey on fish, which has been used in medications for treatment of chronic pain
that is no longer responsive to opioids. These and many other new drugs look to nature for
inspiration. Gerwick pointed out that the success record of marine natural products in this
field, namely one drug per 2,450 compounds, is six times more productive than the
industry standard (Gerwick and Moore, 2012).

Marine microbes make the pharmaceutical pipeline sustainable

there is no alternative
Waters, Hamann, Department of Pharmacognosy @ University of Mississippi, Hill, and
Place, Institute of Marine and Environmental Technology @ University of Maryland, 2010
(Amanda, Mark, Russell and Allen, The expanding role of marine microbes in pharmaceutical
development, Current Opinion in Biotechnology, December)
Marine natural products provide an excellent opportunity to study diverse and unique
compounds not readily accessible from any other source leading to expansion of the
pharmaceutical pipeline. Marine microbes can produce unique compounds covering new
chemical space and the utility of marine natural products is expanding beyond its original
role in identification of new prototype drug leads into fields of study involving sustainable
supplies of unique molecule using biosynthesis in conjunction with synthesis. Perhaps the
greatest impact marine natural products has played is in revealing that unexplored and
previously inaccessible chemical space can contribute to growth in the pharmaceutical
pipeline. Improved methodologies in fermentation technologies, biosynthesis and
synthesis provide opportunities to both create and supply drug leads which would not be
available by any single method independently. As a result pharmaceutical biotechnology
in the future is certain to provide increasingly sophisticated molecular architecture
assembled using biosynthesis and synthesis in concert.

U.S. Key
Contention 4: U.S. key
U.S. action is needed NOAA can develop the necessary technology
and partner with pharmaceutical companies and a fee-based
system will pay for itself
Valette-Silver, oceanographer @ NOAA, and Bohan, science program coordinator @
NOAA, report of the NOAA Marine Microbes Workshop, November 2011
(Natholie and Margot, http://explore.noaa.gov/sites/OER/Documents/Marine-Microbes-WorkshopReport.pdf)
There is a great need to develop new technologies and tools to study marine microbes. In
particular, it is essential to work towards a new technology, such as a microchip, that would
allow for the in-situ sequencing of microbe genomes, similar to the coral reef microarray.
It is indispensable to develop and maintain a well-established and robust observing
system for marine microbes. In particular, NOAA should use the National Estuarine Research
Reserve System, Integrated Ocean Observing System and other regularly sampled stations
(e.g., National Status and Trends, etc.) to add biogeochemical and microbes observations as
well as microbial sampling to activities already in progress. The data obtained would directly
be used for the development of a regional Earth model with location perspective.
Great advances could be achieved in NOAA by creating a Marine Microbe Program and a
core facility for natural products derived from marine microbes,. This last item could be
fee-based and would provide a standardized set of tests especially centered on enzymes of
interest to NOAA.
Finally, in collaboration with DOE, NOAA should investigate the potential role of the National
Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) in storing data and metadata regarding microbes and
sequences for viruses and prokaryotes.
Partners
For all these proposed activities, NOAA should work collaboratively with academic
institutions, especially cooperative institutes, and with other agencies (such as NSF, National
Institute of Science & Technology (NIST), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Interior
(DOI), Department of Defense (DOD) and the Smithsonian Institution) to create a National
Marine Microbe Program. In NOAA, partners include scientists and managers from OAR, NOS,
NMFS and NESDIS. NWS is not yet involved but in light of their recent association with the
Ecological Forecasting Working Group, an effort should be made to bring them into the fold of the
NOAA Marine Microbes Working Group. Private sectors partners should be sought after to
enlarge the circle of interested parties, especially entities dealing with biotechnology and
pharmaceuticals.

The private sector watches federal microbe policy key to new

antibiotics
Dr. Avery, president and director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 6/11/ 2013
(Susan k., testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation:
Subcommittee on Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries and Coast Guard, CQ Congressional
Testimony, Lexis)
There is the microbial frontier, where 90 percent of the ocean biomass resides and which
is invisible to the human eye. There are about 300,000 times more microbes in the ocean
than there are observable stars in the universe.5 Ocean scientists have just begun to
explore this universe of marine microbes, which holds the key to healthy biological

functioning of the ocean ecosystem, much as the microbiome in the human body is critical to
our health. They are also searching for unknown biochemical pathways and compounds,
for new antibiotics, and for novel treatments for diseases such as Alzheimer's and cystic
fibrosis.
Then there is the frontier of temporal and spatial scales that must be overcome to monitor and
forecast changes to the deep and open ocean. The ocean exhibits large, basin-wide patterns of
variability that change over periods ranging from days and weeks to years, decades, and longer.
Understanding and observing these patterns, including El Nino- Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
offer potential for improved prediction of climate variability in the future. For most of my career, I
have been an atmospheric scientist. The atmosphere and ocean are both fluids (one that is
compressible, the other incompressible). These two systems are interwoven and inseparable.
But while we have long-established, extensive networks of meteorological instruments continually
monitoring our atmosphere, we have just begun to establish a relative toehold of long-term
observatories to understand, and monitor how the ocean operates.
To truly comprehend Earth's dynamic behavior and to monitor how it affects us back on land,
scientists must establish a long-term presence in the ocean, including platforms and suites
of physical, chemical, and biological sensors from which to view how the ocean and seafloor
change in fine resolution over seasons, years, and decades. This same observing capability will
provide the basis for improved forecasts from models that incorporate data and observations from
the ocean, atmosphere, and land and that provide the basis for decision making by national,
state, and local agencies.
Variability such as weather events associated with ENSO has significant societal and economic
impacts in the U.S., and a combination of a dedicated ocean-observing system in the tropical
Pacific plus models that forecast ENSO impacts is now in place to help society adapt in times of
increased variability. The promise of additional benefits from observing, understanding, and
predicting the ocean and its impacts is real. Modeled reconstructions by Hoerling and Kumar of
the 1930's drought in the Central U.S. recently linked that event to patterns of anomalies in seasurface temperature far from the U.S.
The global scale of the circulation of the ocean and basin-scale patterns of ocean variability on
decadal and longer time scales may present sources of improved predictive skill in future weather
and climate models.
Moving forward, we need to be even more adaptive and agile, applying new technologies in
ways that both make crucial observations more effectively and make coincident
observations of the biology, chemistry, and physics of the ocean. At the same time we need at
our modeling and prediction centers to establish the resources and mindset that will support
testing and adoption of research results that lead to improved predictions.
We are on the edge of exploration of many ocean frontiers that will be using new eyes in the
ocean. Public-funded/private-funded investment in those eyes is required, but will not be
successful without adequate and continuing federal commitment to ocean science.
Support such as Jim's and the Schmidt Ocean Institute, which was founded by Eric Schmidt and
operates the research vessel Falkor, help fill gaps in support for research and development or for
access to the ocean.
However, the fact remains that federal funding is by far the leading driver of exploration,
observation, and technical research and development that has a direct impact on the lives
of people around the world and on U.S. economic growth and leadership. It also remains
the bellwether by which philanthropic entrepreneurs judge the long-term viability of the
impact their investment will have on the success that U.S. ocean science research will
have around the globe.

Only U.S. research gets drugs to the marketplace it has a dominant

advantage over any other country
DeVol, chief research officer at the Milken Institute, Bedroussian, research economist at the
Millken Institute, and Yeo, senior research analyst at the Millken Institute, Sept 2011

(Ross, Armen, and Benjamin, The Global Biomedical Industry: Preserving U.S. Leadership,
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/CASMIFullReport.pdf)
Biomedical innovation is an intricate process that begins in the lab and spans years of effort
to transform scientific discoveries into vaccines, diagnostics, devices, and therapies that
improve patients lives. Over the past few decades, the United States has created and refined a
remarkably productive framework for developing new biomedical innovations and bringing
them to the marketplacein fact, its one of the most dramatic success stories written by
any American industry in the past century. Whether measured by international or domestic
market share, revenue, jobs, number of regulatory approvals, patents, R&D expenditures,
or publications in the biomedical field, the U.S. holds a commanding position.
Prior to 1980, European firms defined the industry, both in terms of market presence and in their
ability to create and produce innovative new products. Historical advantages and an enviable
concentration of resources fueled the success of firms in Germany, France, the U.K., and
Switzerland. Japan had a presence in the industry as well.
But beginning in the 1980s, the United States surged to the forefront of biomedical
innovation. This sudden and remarkable shift was no accident: It was the result of strong
policy positions taken by the federal government. The absence of price controls, the
clarity of regulatory approvals, a thoughtful intellectual property system, and the ability to
attract foreign scientific talent to outstanding research universities put the U.S. on top.
The resulting ecosystemdefined by university-business collaborations, industry
clusters, private equity finance, and entrepreneurshipfar surpassed the prevailing model
in Europe. The innovative leaps made in biopharmaceutical research, medical devices, and
diagnostics gave the U.S. a major advantage that it continues to hold today.

U.S. research gives us the best chance of more drugs fast a

pandemic could emerge any day its a race to new cures and
federal funding is key
DeVol, chief research officer at the Milken Institute, Bedroussian, research economist at the
Millken Institute, and Yeo, senior research analyst at the Millken Institute, Sept 2011
(Ross, Armen, and Benjamin, The Global Biomedical Industry: Preserving U.S. Leadership,
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/CASMIFullReport.pdf)
U.S. Competitive Advantages
A nation's biomedical industry cannot be viewed solely through the prism of the results
achieved by individual firms. It is shaped in crucial ways by a broader set of institutions,
market conditions, infrastructures, and government policies that influence those companies'
strategies. The US. industry has been fostered by favorable intellectual property policies;
government funding for basic research through the NIH, which has helped to build a strong
STEM workforce; a competitive free market for innovative products; and the ability to
access robust capital markets. Another major factor was the foresight of the federal
government in adopting policies that support the connection between research and
entrepreneurship, helping universities commercialize their discoveries in the marketplace. We will
examine some of these advantages in the section that follows.
Size of the Consumer Market
The United States enjoys substantial benefits due to the sheer size of its consumer market.
As of 2008, the U.S. biomedical product market was almost four times larger than Japan's,
which ranked second in terms of total expenditures. Although the rise of the European Union
allowed for greater economies of scale, the linguistic and cultural demands of its member
nations keep the market more fractured than that in the U.S.38
In 2008, Americans spent $234 billion on pharmaceuticals and related products. This
translates to $769 per capita, the highest per-capita expenditure among the OECD countries
and 25 percent higher than that of the secondhighest-ranking country, Canada. On the other
hand, Japan, Germany, and France spent $60 billion ($471 per capita), $41 billion ($501 per
capita) and $31 billion ($488 per capita), respectively. The growth trend of these expenditures

has dramatically progressed since 1995.39 Market sales of pharmaceuticals equaled 2.1 percent
of U5. GDP (France was second-highest in this measure at 1.54 percent).4ln 2010, the US.
medical device market was the world's largest at an estimated $94.9 billion.
Strength in Human Capital
Innovation is the key to the survival and continued growth of the biomedical industriesand
well-educated and highly trained human capital is the driving force behind innovation. In
2006, the United States awarded the largest number of science and engineering doctoral
degrees of any country, followed by China, Russia, Germany, and the United Kingdom.42
The United States has built excellent biomedical science research competencies at its
universities and research institutions, which are able to obtain funding from both federal
and industry sources. When university R&D can be leveraged for commercialization in the
private sector, the partnerships can be beneficial to both parties. Funding from commercialization
enables an institution to further its research agenda and help recruit talent, while the biomedical
industry can expand the scope and depth of its research with the help of outside experts, often at
much lower cost.
The depth of a regions talent pool determines its ability to attract large corporations and
small firms alike. Physical proximity to top universities and research institutions allows
corporations to tap into the specialized human capital they need to build their workforces.
Together they form an ecosystem that provides fertile ground for biomedical innovation.
According to the OS World University Rankings 2010, the United States has seven of the top 10
schools in the world for life science and biomedicine programs.46 Harvard ranks No. 1, with
MIT at No. 8; together these institutions form the cornerstone of a major life sciences cluster in
the Boston metro area. Stanford and UC Berkeley rank 4th and 5th, respectively, fostering
another cluster of innovation in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Pandemics Ext.

Civil Wars Impact Add-on

Pandemics cause global civil wars regression analysis proves
Letendre, Fincher, Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, and Thornhill,
Department of Computer Science at the University of New Mexico, 2010
(Kenneth, Corey, and Randy, Does infectious disease cause global variation in the frequency of
intrastate armed conflict and civil war?, Biological Reviews, p. 669)
Geographic and cross-national variation in the frequency of intrastate armed conflict and civil
war is a subject of great interest. Previous theory on this variation has focused on the influence
on human behaviour of climate, resource competition, national wealth, and cultural
characteristics. We present the parasite-stress model of intrastate conflict, which unites
previous work on the correlates of intrastate conflict by linking frequency of the outbreak of
such conflict, including civil war, to the intensity of infectious disease across countries of the
world. High intensity of infectious disease leads to the emergence of xenophobic and
ethnocentric cultural norms. These cultures suffer greater poverty and deprivation due to
the morbidity and mortality caused by disease, and as a result of decreased investment in public
health and welfare. Resource competition among xenophobic and ethnocentric groups
within a nation leads to increased frequency of civil war. We present support for the parasitestress model with regression analyses. We find support for a direct effect of infectious
disease on intrastate armed conflict, and support for an indirect effect of infectious disease on
the incidence of civil war via its negative effect on national wealth. We consider the
entanglements of feedback of conflict into further reduced wealth and increased incidence of
disease, and discuss implications for international warfare and global patterns of wealth and
imperialism.

Those go nuclear
Shehadi, Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 1993
(Kamal, Ethnic Self Determination And the Break Up of States, Dec 1993, p. 81)
This paper has argued that self-determination conflicts have direct adverse consequences
on international security. As they begin to tear nuclear states apart, the likelihood of
nuclear weapons falling into the hands of individuals or groups willing to use them, or to
trade them to others, will reach frightening levels. This likelihood increases if a conflict
over self-determination escalates into a war between two nuclear states. The Russian
Federation and Ukraine may fight over the Crimea and the Donbass area; and India and Pakistan
may fight over Kashmir. Ethnic conflicts may also spread both within a state and from one
state to the next. This can happen in countries where more than one ethnic self-determination
conflict is brewing: Russia, India and Ethiopia, for example. The conflict may also spread by
contagion from one country to another if the state is weak politically and militarily and cannot
contain the conflict on its doorstep. Lastly, there is a real danger that regional conflicts will erupt
over national minorities and borders.

Biodiversity
No defense Zoonotic diseases will mutate and cause species
extinction
Vandegrift, Wale, and Epstein 11 - Kurt J, Nina, Jonathan H. respectively of the Center
for Infectious Disease Dynamics and EcoHealth Alliance (15 April 2011, "An Ecological and
Conservation Perspective on Advances in the Applied Virology of Zoonoses,"
http://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/3/4/379, ADL)
Our planet is currently experiencing the sixth mass extinction event in history [1]. Although there
are problems with estimating the total number of extant animal species [2], recent extinction rates are thought to be 100- to
1000-times greater than past rates determined from the fossil record. It is estimated that as many
as 140,000 species are perishing each year [3]. Although habitat loss and fragmentation are the main drivers of this
high extinction rate, infectious disease also contributes to animal population declines either
independently, by reducing population size, or through interactions with other processes
[4,5]. Indeed, these anthropogenic changes to habitat are also contributing to a second biological
crisis: an increase in the rate of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) [6,7]. Of
these EIDs, 75% are zoonotic (see Table 1 for a definition) [8] and 37% are RNA viruses [9]. The high mutation rate of
RNA viruses coupled with their ability to recombine and reassort allows for a rapid rate of evolution . In turn, this
makes them highly adaptable and thus able to both exploit the new hosts and habitats
afforded by a changing environment, as well as to develop resistance to treatments [10].
Examples of zoonotic RNA viruses which have emerged relatively recently include SARS
coronavirus (SARS CoV), West Nile virus (WNV), Chikungunya virus, the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)
and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and 2 (HIV-2). Cumulatively, these ailments have
claimed hundreds of millions of human lives and cost the global economy hundreds of billions of US dollars.
Among all viruses, HIV-1 causes the greatest amount of human mortality [11] and its immunosuppressive nature is facilitating the
resurgence of old pathogens (i.e., tuberculosis) in human populations [12]. It is possible that the emergence of HIV is

also
encouraging cross-species transmission and that these disease threats may have a
severe, negative impact on wild animal populations [13]. A multi-disciplinary approach will be necessary to combat
the crises of extinction and disease emergence because human, ecosystem and animal
health are inextricably linked . In recent years, great advances have been made in virology and disease ecology, particularly
towards elucidating the mechanisms behind the emergence and evolution of zoonotic viruses. Thus, it is important to review and consider
how advances in virology and disease ecology complement each other. The roots of ecology date back to Theophrastus in the 4th century
B.C. [14]. The concept of food chains originated in the 17th century and Darwin and Wallace put forth the theory of evolution in the 18th
century [15], but ecology did not become a prominent field until 1927 when two key advances transformed the study into a proper discipline.
In this year, Charles Elton published his Animal Ecology [16] and Kirmack and McKendrick (1927) [17] formulated a model to describe the
progress of an epidemic in a homogenous population [16,17]. In the 1960s, Rachael Carsons Silent Spring Viruses 2011, 3 381 generated
concern for the environment and thrust ecologists into a new political field where preserving the integrity of our global ecosystems was the
priority [18]. Even so, the Society for Conservation Biology was not established until 1985 [19]. As a part of this transition, ecology shifted
from a descriptive science to one of prediction, reflecting the hope that ecologists might mitigate changes which can have negative impacts
upon the ecosystem. Ecologists have branched out into the study of parasites and disease as it has become increasingly apparent that
parasites are inextricably linked to the ecology of their hosts and environments, to the point where they have been a driving force in the
evolution of sexual reproduction and in the shaping of biodiversity [20,21]. Over the past 30 years, disease ecologists have developed the
study of parasites and pathogens in the wild. This knowledge has been synthesized into mathematical models which describe the dynamic
properties of ecosystems and predict how parasites and pathogens flow through them. [22,23]. These models are becoming more
commonly integrated into epidemiological studies that seek to predict outbreaks or periods of time when cross-species spillover risk is
highest. Parallel to this progress, the field of virology, particularly the subfields of molecular virology and viral evolution, have also been
burgeoning, largely due to advances in technology that have made molecular assays and genetic sequencing more accessible to a greater
number of scientists. The development of high-throughput sequencing has greatly increased our ability to efficiently detect known viruses
as well as to discover new types of viruses, thereby improving our understanding of viral diversity, pathology and evolution. This increased
capacity has spawned the development of new fields of study. For example, phylodynamics allows researchers to determine the origin of
circulating viruses in space and time. Mutations among viral strains can be used to investigate interactions among host species as well as
long-range host movement via corridors and flyways. Phylodynamic analyses can also inform livestock management practices, as was the
case with Foot and Mouth disease in the United Kingdom [24]. Conducting viral

surveillance in animal reservoirs and invertebrate

help explain circulation within host species; observed patterns of zoonotic
transmission; and even allow for the prediction of periods of increased risk of zoonotic
transmission (e.g., Rift valley fever and rainfall [25]; West Nile virus (WNV) and American robin (Turdus turdus) migration [26]; as
well as hantavirus in mice [27,28]). Understanding viral ecology in wildlife reservoirs and identifying high-risk human-wildlife
interfaces is especially critical in the context of ever increasing globalization, whereby
transportation networks facilitate rapid spread of pathogens well beyond bounds where
traditional epidemiological methods can be effective [2931]. The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic spread
vectors can

from the presumptive point of emergence in La Gloria Mexico to New Zealand in just under a month [32] while SARS radiated from
Guangdong, China to 26 different countries within several months [29]. The

negative impacts of emerging

infectious diseases are not limited to humans. Indeed, wildlife conservationists have
documented several mass mortality events in other animal species. Western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla
gorilla) have been decimated by Ebola virus [33] and an especially virulent calicivirus, rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus, spread through
both domestic and wild rabbit populations, resulting in tens of millions of deaths [34]. In some instances the viruses have attenuated, while
in others the animal

populations have been brought to the brink of extinction. Importantly, the

risk from disease to humans and animals should not be separated. The global Viruses 2011, 3
382 transportation network facilitated the introduction of infected vectors (e.g., mosquitoes) into
New York and WNV caused both avian and human mortality, and this virus has subsequently spread across the United States
[26].

Zoonoses On the Way

New drug resistant zoonoses are coming now
Jones et al 2008 - Kate E Jones, Nikkita G Patel, Marc A Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah
Balk, John L Gittleman, & Peter Daszak (21 Feb 2008, "Global trends in emerging infectious
diseases," www.ecohealthalliance.org/writable/publications/nature06536.pdf, ADL)
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and
public health13. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic,
environmental and ecological factors19, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to
understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID events (origins of EIDs) between 1940
and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias,

EID events are dominated by zoonoses

wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and

with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic.
(60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in

are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia,
reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are
significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new
EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease hotspots). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs

We conclude that global resources to counter

disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries
from where the next important EID is least likely to originate. In the global human population, we report the
emergence of 335 infectious diseases between 1940 and 2004. Here we define the first temporal
origination of an EID (that is, the original case or cluster of cases representing an infectious disease emerging in
human populations for the first timesee Methods and Supplementary Table 1) as an EID event. Our database
originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low.

includes EID events caused by newly evolved strains of pathogens (for example, multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis and chloroquine-resistant
malaria), pathogens that have recently entered human populations for the first time (for example, HIV-1, severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) coronavirus), and pathogens that have probably been present in humans historically, but which have recently increased in

The emergence of these pathogens and their subsequent spread

have caused an extremely significant impact on global health and economies13. Previous
efforts to understand patterns of EID emergence have highlighted viral pathogens (especially
RNA viruses) as a major threat, owing to their often high rates of nucleotide substitution, poor
mutation error-correction ability and therefore higher capacity to adapt to new hosts,
including humans5,8,10,11. However, we find that the majority of pathogens involved in EID events are bacterial or
rickettsial (54.3%). This group is typically represented by the emergence of drug-resistant bacterial
strains (for example, vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). Viral or prion pathogens constitute only 25.4% of EID events, in
incidence (for example, Lyme disease).

contrast to previous analyses which suggest that 3744% of emerging pathogens are viruses or prions and 1030% bacteria or
rickettsia5,8,11. This follows our classification of each individual drug-resistant microbial strain as a separate pathogen in our database,
and reflects

more accurately the true significance of antimicrobial drug resistance for global
health, in which different pathogen strains can cause separate significant outbreaks12. In
broad concurrence with previous studies on the characteristics of emerging human pathogens5,8,11, we find the percentages of EID events
caused by other pathogen types to be 10.7% for protozoa, 6.3% for fungi and 3.3% for helminths (see Supplementary Data and
Supplementary Table 2 for a detailed comparison to previous studies). The incidence of EID events has increased since 1940, reaching a
maximum in the 1980s (Fig. 1). We tested whether the increase through time was largely attributable to increasing infectious disease
reporting effort (that is, through more efficient diagnostic methods and more thorough surveillance2,3,13) by calculating the annual number
of articles published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases (JID) since 1945 (see Methods). Controlling for reporting effort, the number of EID
events still shows a highly significant relationship with time (generalized linear model with Poisson errors, offset by log(JID articles)

that the threat of EIDs

to global health is increasing1,2,14. To further investigate the peak in EID events in the 1980s, we examined the most
(GLMP,JID), F596.4, P,0.001, d.f.557). This provides the first analytical support for previous suggestions

frequently cited driver of EID emergence during this period (see Supplementary Table 1). Increased susceptibility to infection caused the
highest proportion of events during 198090 (25.5%), and we therefore suggest that the spike in EID events in the 1980s is due largely to
the emergence of new diseases associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic2,13. The majority (60.3%) of EID events are caused by zoonotic
pathogens (defined here as those which have a non-human animal source), which is consistent with previous analyses of human EIDs5,8.
Furthermore, 71.8% of these zoonotic EID events were caused by pathogens with a wildlife originfor example, the emergence of Nipah
virus in Perak, Malaysia and SARS in Guangdong Province, China. The number of EID events caused by pathogens originating in wildlife
has increased significantly with time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F560.7, P,0.001, d.f.557), and they constituted 52.0% of EID
events in the most recent decade (19902000) (Fig. 1). This supports the suggestion that zoonotic EIDs represent an increasing and very
significant threat to global health1,2,7,13,14. It also highlights the importance of understanding the factors that increase contact between
wildlife and humans in developing predictive approaches to disease emergence4,6,9,15. Vector-borne diseases are responsible for 22.8%
of EID events in our database, and 28.8% in the last decade (Fig. 1). Our analysis 1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London,
Regents Park, LondonNW14RY, UK. 2Consortium for Conservation Medicine, Wildlife Trust, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor,New York,
New York 10001, USA. 3Center for International Earth Science InformationNetwork, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W,
Palisades, New York 10964, USA. 4Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA. {Present addresses:
Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA (A.S.); School of Public Affairs, Baruch College, City

University of New York, 1 Bernard Baruch Way, Box D-0901, New York, New York 10010, USA (D.B.). Vol 451| 21 February 2008|
doi:10.1038/nature06536 990 2008 Nature PublishingGroup reveals a significant rise in the number of EID events they have caused over
time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F549.8, P,0.001, d.f.557). This rise corresponds to climate anomalies occurring during the
1990s16, adding support to hypotheses that climate change may drive the emergence of diseases that have vectors sensitive to changes in
environmental conditions such as rainfall, temperature and severe weather events17. However, this controversial issue requires further
analyses to test causal relationships between EID events and climate change18. We also report that EID

events caused by
drug-resistant microbes (which represent 20.9% of the EID events in our database) have significantly
increased with time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F55.19, P,0.05, d.f.557). This is probably related to a
corresponding rise in antimicrobial drug use, particularly in high-latitude developed
countries2,7,12. A recent analysis showed a latitudinal spatial gradient in human pathogen species richness increasing towards the
Equator19, in common with the distributional pattern of species richness found in many other taxonomic groups20. Environmental
parameters that promote pathogen transmission at lower latitudes (for example, higher temperatures and precipitation) are hypothesized to
drive this pattern19. Our analyses suggest that there is no such pattern in EID events, which are concentrated in higher latitudes
(Supplementary Fig. 1). The highest concentration of EID events per million square kilometres of land was found between 30 and 60
degrees north and between 30 and 40 degrees south, with the main hotspots in the northeastern United States, western Europe, Japan and
southeastern Australia (Fig. 2). We hypothesize that (1) socioeconomic drivers (such as human population density, antibiotic drug use and
agricultural practices) are major determinants of the spatial distribution of EID events, in addition to the ecological or environmental
conditions that may affect overall (emerging and non-emerging) human pathogen distribution19, and (2) that the importance of these
drivers depends on the category of EID event. In particular, we hypothesize that EID

events caused by zoonotic

pathogens from wildlife are significantly correlated with wildlife biodiversity, and those caused
by drug-resistant pathogens are more correlated with socio-economic conditions than those caused by zoonotic pathogens.
We tested these hypotheses by examining the relationship between the spatial pattern of the different categories of EID events (zoonotic
pathogens originating in wildlife and non-wildlife, drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens, Supplementary Fig. 2), and socioeconomic
variables (human population density and human population growth), environmental variables (latitude, rainfall) and an ecological variable
(wildlife host species richness) (see Methods). We found that human population density was a common significant independent predictor of
EID events in all categories, controlling for spatial reporting bias by country (see Methods, Table 1 and Supplementary Table 3). This
supports previous hypotheses that disease

emergence is largely a product of anthropogenic and

demographic changes, and is a hidden cost of human economic development 2,4,7,9,13.
Wildlife host species richness is a significant predictor for the emergence of zoonotic EIDs with a wildlife origin, with no role for human
population growth, latitude or rainfall (Table 1). The emergence of zoonotic EIDs from non-wildlife hosts is predicted by human population
density, human population growth, and latitude, and not by wildlife host species richness. EID events caused by drug-resistant microbes
are affected by human population density and growth, latitude and rainfall. The pattern of EID events caused by vector-borne diseases was
not correlated with any of the environmental or ecological variables we examined, although we note that the climate variable used in this
analysis (rainfall) does not represent climate change phenomena.

Unpredictable zoonotic diseases are coming only the Aff solves

Hayman 11 - David Hayman of the Department of Biology of Colorado State University (David
T. S., "Wildlife Zoonoses," omicsonline.org/wildlife-zoonoses-2161-1165.S2-001.pdf, ADL).
In the late 1960s and 1970s, many people working in public health in industrialized societies such as the
USA believed that infectious diseases would cease to be a major health threat [1]. Vaccines existed for some of
the most devastating diseases, including poliomyelitis, measles, and smallpox, and malaria had been eradicated from large regions,
including Europe [2,3]. In 1977 the last case of smallpox was reported and it became the first infectious disease to be eradicated globally.
Rabies vaccines, which had existed since Pasteur in 1885, had successfully been trialled in an oral bait delivery system, and signs were

infectious
diseases are still to be found among the top causes of human deaths globally [5] (Figure 1). The
majority of human pathogens are now recognized to be zoonotic [6-8]. Zoonotic infections are those of
non-human origin that infect humans, and most zoonotic infections are of wildlife origin [6-8]. Here I review the history and impacts
that one of the most feared animal infections could be controlled [4]. However, it is now well into the 21st Century and

of emerging infectious diseases in todays society, and processes of infection emergence from wildlife. The importance of factors relating to
host ecology, receptor usage and host range, and pathogen adaptation in spillover and emergence into human populations will be
discussed. Finally, recent advances in technology and the challenges emerging zoonoses pose for epidemiologists will be highlighted.
History of Emerging Infectious Diseases It is now generally recognized that even the

most human of infectious

diseases at some time had their origins in other animals, typically wild , but also domesticated [8]. For
example, well-known Old World human pathogens that now only infect humans, such as measles and smallpox, have animal origins [8,9].
Measles is thought to have derived from spillover of rinderpest or canine distemper virus infection in Mesopotamia following urbanization
circa 8000BCE and human population sizes reached a threshold size that allowed persistence [10-12]. The

increase in human
population density and todays increase in connectivity and encroachment into wild areas
probably means that we are more susceptible to infection emergence, and subsequent
disease, than ever [13,14]. Numbers and Costs of Emerging Zoonoses Relatively recent reviews have estimated that
approximately 175 of the 1400 human pathogen species recognized are emerging or reemerging, and
between 58-75% of all infections are zoonotic [7,15]. The cost to humans of these emerging infections can
be substantial, both in terms of lives and economics (Figure 2). A pertinent example is the emergence of human immunodeficiency
virus (HIV), which occurred due to bush meat hunting of simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infected primates in Africa in the early part of
the 20th Century [16-18]. Indeed, many groups of HIV-2, a relative of an SIV that infects sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys atys), still
largely circulate only in African human populations, and have yet to become pandemic infections [19,20]. In 2009 the WHO estimated 33.3
million people lived with HIV infection, 2.6 million new HIV infections occurred and 1.8 million people died due to acquired immune
deficiency syndrome (AIDS) related illnesses [21]. New HIV infections in the United States in 2002 alone were estimated to cost $36.4

billion per annum, including $6.7 billion in direct medical costs and $29.7 billion in productivity losses [22]. Infection

emergence
is complex because many species share infections and jumps between host species are
common and natural. Recent estimates suggest that there may be 8.7 million eukaryote species on earth
[23]. It is likely that each of these has a suite of viral infections, many of which they may share
with other species. Given the number of wildlife species humans have contact with around the globe; the exposure rate of
humans to infectious agents vastly exceeds the rate of spillover from wildlife to humans. The many orders of magnitude
difference between exposure and spillover rates make predicting emergence difficult . There
have, however, been several efforts aimed at predicting infection emergence, both relating to the likely infections or regions of the globe
where new emergence events may occur. Jones et al analyzed data to predict likely hot-spots for infections to emerge from, whereas other
efforts have aimed to determine from which animal species or orders infections emerge [7,13,15,24]. Further analyses have identified that
viral traits can predict emergence [25,26].

Zoonotic diseases are diverse, unpredictable, and getting worse

Waltzek et al 11 T.B. Waltzek, G. Corts-Hinojosa, J. F. X. Wellehan Jr. and Gregory C. Gray
teach at the Department of Health, the Emerging Pathogens institute, and the College of
Veterinary Medicine at the University of Florida, Marine Mammal Zoonoses: A Review of
Disease Manifestations , 12/16/11,
http://academicdepartments.musc.edu/mbes/mbessa/documents/zoonoses%20and%20marine%
20mammals.pdf//OF
Recent studies have underscored the importance of domesticated and feral animal populations
in both the emergence of novel and re-emergence of existing human pathogens (Woolhouse
and Gowtage-Sequeria, 2005). This is illustrated by the fact that 75% of known human pathogens are
zoonotic, and the incidences of their associated diseases are increasing (Cunningham, 2005).
Most recent emerging diseases have been associated with host switches, including severe acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus, H5N1 avian inuenza, Hendra virus, Nipah virus and acquired
immunodeciency syndrome ( AIDS ) (Woolhouse and Gowtage-Sequeria, 2005). The rise in zoonotic
diseases is driven by a complex interplay of environmental (global warming, ocean acidication,
pollution), ecological (habitat destruction or fragmentation) and epidemiologic (increasing human densities
encroach- ing on decreasing wildlife populations, global movements of plants and animals) factors (Van Bressem et al.,
2009; Bossart, 2011). Humans are having a major impact on marine environments, with negative impacts on marine
mammal populations (Bejder et al., 2006). As the closest oceanic relatives of humans, marine mammals are sentinel
species for both human and ocean health and they are long-lived, top-tier consumers, inhabiting the same inshore
ecosystems utilized by man (Jessup et al., 2004; Bossart, 2011). Our knowledge of the diversity of marine mammal
pathogens is now expanding rapidly (Nollens et al., 2010; Palacios et al., 2011; Wellehan et al., 2011). Future progress in
zoonotic and emerging disease research will require the coordination of multidisciplinary teams addressing the nexus of
human, animal and environment that has been referred to as the One Health paradigm. Marine mammals are beloved by
the general public, and numerous recreational industries permit intimate contact with these charismatic megafauna,
including whale-watching tours, swim-with-the-dolphin/manatee programs, and oceanaria. Marine mammal researchers,
rehabilitators, trainers, veterinarians and volunteers have an increased risk of being injured or acquiring zoonotic diseases
through extended occupational exposure (Hunt et al., 2008). Subsistence hunters (e.g. whalers and sealers) are also at
occupational risk of disease acquisition through their direct physical contact with infected marine mammals or through the
ingestion of marine mammal food products (Boggild, 1969; Bender et al., 1972; Caw- thorn, 1997; Tryland, 2000;
McLaughlin et al., 2004). Finally, during marine mammal stranding events, human rescuers have acquired

zoonotic infections following contact with infected carcasses (Webster et al., 1981). The most
life-threatening systemic
diseases have been reported . A recent study evaluating the risk of illness associated with occupational contact

common marine mammal zoonotic diseases are localized infections, although

with marine mammals found that more than 10% of the par- ticipants reported having contracted localized infections
colloquially referred to as seal nger (Hunt et al., 2008). Seal nger is caused by a variety of bacterial and viral species
(Table 1). Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the bacterial, viral and fungal marine mammal zoonotic diseases.
The review provides a synopsis of each disease, its clinical and pathologic manifestation in marine mammals, followed by
a review of transmission of the disease to humans.

New drug resistant zoonoses are coming now

Jones et al 8 - Kate E Jones, Nikkita G Patel, Marc A Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah Balk,
John L Gittleman, & Peter Daszak (21 Feb 2008, "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases,"
www.ecohealthalliance.org/writable/publications/nature06536.pdf, ADL)

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and
public health13. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic,
environmental and ecological factors19, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to
understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID events (origins of EIDs) between 1940
and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias,

EID events are dominated by zoonoses

wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and

with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic.
(60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in

are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia,
reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are
significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new
EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease hotspots). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs

We conclude that global resources to counter

disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries
from where the next important EID is least likely to originate. In the global human population, we report the
emergence of 335 infectious diseases between 1940 and 2004. Here we define the first temporal
origination of an EID (that is, the original case or cluster of cases representing an infectious disease emerging in
human populations for the first timesee Methods and Supplementary Table 1) as an EID event. Our database
originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low.

includes EID events caused by newly evolved strains of pathogens (for example, multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis and chloroquine-resistant
malaria), pathogens that have recently entered human populations for the first time (for example, HIV-1, severe acute respiratory syndrome
(SARS) coronavirus), and pathogens that have probably been present in humans historically, but which have recently increased in

The emergence of these pathogens and their subsequent spread

have caused an extremely significant impact on global health and economies13. Previous
efforts to understand patterns of EID emergence have highlighted viral pathogens (especially
RNA viruses) as a major threat, owing to their often high rates of nucleotide substitution, poor
mutation error-correction ability and therefore higher capacity to adapt to new hosts,
including humans5,8,10,11. However, we find that the majority of pathogens involved in EID events are bacterial or
rickettsial (54.3%). This group is typically represented by the emergence of drug-resistant bacterial
strains (for example, vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). Viral or prion pathogens constitute only 25.4% of EID events, in
incidence (for example, Lyme disease).

contrast to previous analyses which suggest that 3744% of emerging pathogens are viruses or prions and 1030% bacteria or
rickettsia5,8,11. This follows our classification of each individual drug-resistant microbial strain as a separate pathogen in our database,
and reflects

more accurately the true significance of antimicrobial drug resistance for global
health, in which different pathogen strains can cause separate significant outbreaks12. In
broad concurrence with previous studies on the characteristics of emerging human pathogens5,8,11, we find the percentages of EID events
caused by other pathogen types to be 10.7% for protozoa, 6.3% for fungi and 3.3% for helminths (see Supplementary Data and
Supplementary Table 2 for a detailed comparison to previous studies). The incidence of EID events has increased since 1940, reaching a
maximum in the 1980s (Fig. 1). We tested whether the increase through time was largely attributable to increasing infectious disease
reporting effort (that is, through more efficient diagnostic methods and more thorough surveillance2,3,13) by calculating the annual number
of articles published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases (JID) since 1945 (see Methods). Controlling for reporting effort, the number of EID
events still shows a highly significant relationship with time (generalized linear model with Poisson errors, offset by log(JID articles)

that the threat of EIDs

to global health is increasing1,2,14. To further investigate the peak in EID events in the 1980s, we examined the most
(GLMP,JID), F596.4, P,0.001, d.f.557). This provides the first analytical support for previous suggestions

frequently cited driver of EID emergence during this period (see Supplementary Table 1). Increased susceptibility to infection caused the
highest proportion of events during 198090 (25.5%), and we therefore suggest that the spike in EID events in the 1980s is due largely to
the emergence of new diseases associated with the HIV/AIDS pandemic2,13. The majority (60.3%) of EID events are caused by zoonotic
pathogens (defined here as those which have a non-human animal source), which is consistent with previous analyses of human EIDs5,8.
Furthermore, 71.8% of these zoonotic EID events were caused by pathogens with a wildlife originfor example, the emergence of Nipah
virus in Perak, Malaysia and SARS in Guangdong Province, China. The number of EID events caused by pathogens originating in wildlife
has increased significantly with time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F560.7, P,0.001, d.f.557), and they constituted 52.0% of EID
events in the most recent decade (19902000) (Fig. 1). This supports the suggestion that zoonotic EIDs represent an increasing and very
significant threat to global health1,2,7,13,14. It also highlights the importance of understanding the factors that increase contact between
wildlife and humans in developing predictive approaches to disease emergence4,6,9,15. Vector-borne diseases are responsible for 22.8%
of EID events in our database, and 28.8% in the last decade (Fig. 1). Our analysis 1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London,
Regents Park, LondonNW14RY, UK. 2Consortium for Conservation Medicine, Wildlife Trust, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor,New York,
New York 10001, USA. 3Center for International Earth Science InformationNetwork, Earth Institute, Columbia University, 61 Route 9W,
Palisades, New York 10964, USA. 4Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA. {Present addresses:
Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02912, USA (A.S.); School of Public Affairs, Baruch College, City
University of New York, 1 Bernard Baruch Way, Box D-0901, New York, New York 10010, USA (D.B.). Vol 451| 21 February 2008|
doi:10.1038/nature06536 990 2008 Nature PublishingGroup reveals a significant rise in the number of EID events they have caused over
time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F549.8, P,0.001, d.f.557). This rise corresponds to climate anomalies occurring during the
1990s16, adding support to hypotheses that climate change may drive the emergence of diseases that have vectors sensitive to changes in
environmental conditions such as rainfall, temperature and severe weather events17. However, this controversial issue requires further

EID events caused by

drug-resistant microbes (which represent 20.9% of the EID events in our database) have significantly
increased with time, controlling for reporting effort (GLMP,JID F55.19, P,0.05, d.f.557). This is probably related to a
corresponding rise in antimicrobial drug use, particularly in high-latitude developed
countries2,7,12. A recent analysis showed a latitudinal spatial gradient in human pathogen species richness increasing towards the
analyses to test causal relationships between EID events and climate change18. We also report that

Equator19, in common with the distributional pattern of species richness found in many other taxonomic groups20. Environmental

parameters that promote pathogen transmission at lower latitudes (for example, higher temperatures and precipitation) are hypothesized to
drive this pattern19. Our analyses suggest that there is no such pattern in EID events, which are concentrated in higher latitudes
(Supplementary Fig. 1). The highest concentration of EID events per million square kilometres of land was found between 30 and 60
degrees north and between 30 and 40 degrees south, with the main hotspots in the northeastern United States, western Europe, Japan and
southeastern Australia (Fig. 2). We hypothesize that (1) socioeconomic drivers (such as human population density, antibiotic drug use and
agricultural practices) are major determinants of the spatial distribution of EID events, in addition to the ecological or environmental
conditions that may affect overall (emerging and non-emerging) human pathogen distribution19, and (2) that the importance of these
drivers depends on the category of EID event. In particular, we hypothesize that EID

events caused by zoonotic

pathogens from wildlife are significantly correlated with wildlife biodiversity, and those caused
by drug-resistant pathogens are more correlated with socio-economic conditions than those caused by zoonotic pathogens.
We tested these hypotheses by examining the relationship between the spatial pattern of the different categories of EID events (zoonotic
pathogens originating in wildlife and non-wildlife, drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens, Supplementary Fig. 2), and socioeconomic
variables (human population density and human population growth), environmental variables (latitude, rainfall) and an ecological variable
(wildlife host species richness) (see Methods). We found that human population density was a common significant independent predictor of
EID events in all categories, controlling for spatial reporting bias by country (see Methods, Table 1 and Supplementary Table 3). This
supports previous hypotheses that disease

emergence is largely a product of anthropogenic and

demographic changes, and is a hidden cost of human economic development 2,4,7,9,13.
Wildlife host species richness is a significant predictor for the emergence of zoonotic EIDs with a wildlife origin, with no role for human
population growth, latitude or rainfall (Table 1). The emergence of zoonotic EIDs from non-wildlife hosts is predicted by human population
density, human population growth, and latitude, and not by wildlife host species richness. EID events caused by drug-resistant microbes
are affected by human population density and growth, latitude and rainfall. The pattern of EID events caused by vector-borne diseases was
not correlated with any of the environmental or ecological variables we examined, although we note that the climate variable used in this
analysis (rainfall) does not represent climate change phenomena.

Zoonoses Structural Violence

Zoonotic diseases exacerbate structural violence
Bryner 12 Jeanna Bryner is the Managing Editor for LiveScience.com, an online science news
website, Zoonoses Study Finds Animal-To-Human Diseases Kill Millions Each Year, 7/7/12,
Huffington Post, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/07/zoonoses-study-findsanim_n_1654967.html//OF
Diseases that can be transmitted between animals and humans, such as bird flu and tuberculosis,
can wreak havoc on the health of both organisms . Now researchers have found 13 so-called
zoonoses are responsible for 2.2 million human deaths every year. The study, detailed this week in
the report "Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots," shows the vast majority of these illnesses
and deaths occur in low- and middle- income countries. For instance, Africa's Ethiopia, Nigeria
and Tanzania, along with India, had the highest rates of associated illness and death .
" From cyst-causing tapeworms to avian flu, zoonoses present a major threat to human and
animal health," lead study author Delia Grace, a veterinary epidemiologist and food safety expert with the
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, said in a statement. "Targeting the diseases in the
hardest-hit countries is crucial to protecting global health as well as to reducing severe
levels of poverty and illness among the world's 1 billion poor livestock keepers." The new
global zoonosis map, an update of one published in the journal Nature in 2008, also revealed the northeastern United
States, Western Europe (particularly the United Kingdom), Brazil and parts of Southeast Asia may
be hotspots of "emerging zoonoses." An emerging zoonosis is a disease that is newly
infecting humans, has just become virulent, or has just become drug-resistant. [10 Deadly
Diseases That Hopped Across Species] Animal-human disease About 60 percent of all human diseases
and 75 percent of all emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic , according to the researchers. Most
human infections with zoonoses come from livestock, including pigs, chickens, cattle, goats, sheep and camels. Out of 56
zoonoses studied, the researchers found 13 that were most important in terms of their impact on human deaths, the
livestock sector and the severity of disease in people, along with their amenability to agriculture-based control. These
were, in descending order: zoonotic gastrointestinal disease; leptospirosis; cysticercosis; zoonotic
tuberculosis ( TB );

rabies ; leishmaniasis (caused by a bite from certain sandflies); brucellosis (a bacterial

echinococcosis ; toxoplasmosis ; Q fever ; zoonotic trypanosomiasis
( sleeping sickness ), hepatitis E; and anthrax . They found many livestock were infected with
these zoonoses in poor countries, where: 27 percent of livestock showed signs of current or past infection
disease that mainly infects livestock);

with bacterial food-borne disease that causes food contamination (a type of zoonotic gastrointestinal disease) 12 percent
of animals have recent or current infections with brucellosis 10 percent of livestock in Africa are infected with
trypanosomiasis 7 percent of livestock are currently infected with TB 17 percent of smallholder pigs show signs of current
infection with cysticercosis 26 percent of livestock show signs of current or past infection with leptospirosis 25 percent of
livestock show signs of current or past infection with Q fever Dependence on livestock Nearly three-quarters of

rural poor people and about one-third of the urban poor depend on livestock for food,
income, manure and other services , the researchers say. As such, the loss of one milking animal can
devastate these households, though even worse, the researchers point out, is the loss of a loved one to a zoonotic
disease. The new map of hotspots will give researchers and officials places on which to focus their efforts. The highest
zoonosis burden, they found, occurs in just a few countries, particularly Ethiopia, Nigeria and India. These three countries
also have the highest number of poor livestock keepers and the highest number of malnourished people. " These

findings allow us to focus on the hotspots of zoonoses and poverty, within which we
should be able to make a difference ," Grace said in a statement.

Zoonoses True vs. K

Our methods are sound (specific to the Jones et al evidence)
Jones et al 8 - Kate E Jones, Nikkita G Patel, Marc A Levy, Adam Storeygard, Deborah Balk,
John L Gittleman, & Peter Daszak (21 Feb 2008, "Global trends in emerging infectious diseases,"
www.ecohealthalliance.org/writable/publications/nature06536.pdf, ADL)
Methods Summary. Biological, temporal and spatial data on human EID events were collected
from the literature from 1940 (yellow fever virus, Nuba Mountains, Sudan) until 2004 (poliovirus type 2 in Uttar
Pradesh, India) (n5335, see Supplementary Data for data and sources). Global allocation of scientific resources for
disease surveillance has been focused on rich, developed countries (Supplementary Fig. 3). It is thus likely that EID
discovery is biased both temporally (by increasing research effort into human pathogens over the period of the database)
and spatially (by the uneven levels of surveillance across countries).We account for these biases by
quantifying reporting effort in JID and including it in our temporal and spatial analyses. JID is
the premier international journal (highest ISI impact factor 2006: http://portal.isiknowledge.com/) of human
infectious disease research that publishes papers on both emerging and non-emerging infectious diseases
without a specific geographical bias. To investigate the drivers of the spatial pattern of EID events,

we compared the location of EID events to five socio-economic, environmental and

ecological variables matched onto a terrestrial one degree grid of the globe. We carried out the spatial
analyses using a multivariable logistic regression to control for co-variability between drivers, with the
presence/ absence of EID events as the dependent variable and all drivers plus our measure of spatial reporting bias by
country as independent variables (n518,307 terrestrial grid cells). Analyses were conducted on subsets of the EID
eventsthose caused by zoonotic pathogens (defined in our analyses as pathogens that originated in non-human
animals) originating in wildlife and non-wildlife species, and those caused by drug-resistant and vector-borne pathogens.
METHODS EID event definition. In this paper, we are analysing the process of disease emergence, not just the
pathogens that cause them. Therefore, we focus on EID events, which we define as the first temporal emergence of a
pathogen in a human population which was related to the increase in distribution, increase in incidence or increase in
virulence or other factor which led to that pathogen being classed as an emerging disease2,4,5,8,13,15. We chose the
1940 cut-off based on the Institute of Medicines2 examples of a currently or very recently emerging disease, all of which
had their likely temporal origins within this time period. Single case reports of a new pathogen were not
considered to represent the emergence of a disease, and emergence was normally represented by reports,

in more than one peer-reviewed paper, of a cluster of cases that were identified in humans
for the first time, or (for previously known diseases) considered significantly above background. Only events
that had sufficient corroborating evidence for their geographic and temporal origin were
included in our analysis. We based our data collection on the list of EIDs in ref. 5 updated to 2004. Unlike this
previous study5, we treated different drug-resistant strains of the same microbial species as separate pathogens and the
cause of separate EID events (for example, the emergence of the chloroquine-resistant strain of the malaria pathogen
(Plasmodium falciparum) in Trujillo, Venezuela in 1957 and the sulphadoxinepyrimethamine- resistant strain in Sa Kaeo,
Thailand in 1981). Variable definitions. The biological, temporal and spatial variable definitions of an EID event used are
as follows: italic font indicates classes of the variables. (1) Pathogen, name of pathogen associated with the EID event.
(2) Year (the earliest year in which the first cluster of cases representing each EID event was reported to have occurred
was taken where a range of years was given). (3) Pathogen type (PathType): (i) bacterial; (ii) rickettsial; (iii) viral; (iv)
prion; (v) fungal; (vi) helminth; (vii) protozoan. (4) Transmission type (TranType): (0) non-zoonotic (disease emerged
without involvement of a non-human host); (1) zoonotic (disease emerged via non-human to human transmission, not
including vectors). (5) Zoonotic type (ZooType): (0) non-zoonotic (disease emerged via human to human transmission);
(1) non-wildlife (zoonotic EID event caused by a pathogen with no known wildlife origin); (2) wildlife (zoonotic EID event
caused by a pathogen with a wildlife origin); (3) unspecified (zoonotic EID event caused by a pathogen with an unknown
origin). (6) Drug resistance (DrugRes): (0) event not caused by a drug-resistant microbe; and (1) event caused by a drugresistant microbe. (7) Transmission mode (TranMode): (0) pathogen causing the EID event not normally transmitted by a
vector; and (1) pathogen causing the event transmitted by a vector. (8) Driver.Weclassified the most commonly cited
underlying primary causal factor (or driver) associated with the EID event according to the classes listed in refs 2, 13. We
re-classified Economic development and land use and Technology and industry to form more descriptive categories:
Agricultural industry changes, Medical industry changes, Food industry changes, Land use changes and Bushmeat.
(9) Location. Description of where the first cluster of cases representing each EID event was reported to have occurred.
For these descriptions, accurate spatial coordinates (point location data) were found for 51.8% of EID events (n5220)
using Global Gazetteer v.2.1 (http://www.fallingrain.com/world/) and these were assigned to corresponding one degree
terrestrial spatial grids. Some EID event locations were lesser known and only described sub-regionally or regionally (for
example, SARS in Guangdong Province, China or enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli in Peru). These locations
were assigned corresponding boundaries from ESRI sub-regional or regional data24 and we randomly selected only one
grid cell from the possible grid cells to represent each particular event. This treated these lesser known events
equivalently to those that were assigned a specific point location. Driver definitions. Definitions of the spatial drivers used
are as follows: (1) Human population density for 200025 (persons per km2); (2) Human population growth, calculated

between 1990 and 200025.We used a dummy variable to indicate grid cells that experienced rapid growth in human
population. This variable was set to 1 for grid cells where the 19902000 human population growth exceeded 25% over
the decade, and was set to 0 elsewhere; (3) Latitude (absolute latitude of the central point of each grid cell, decimal
degrees); (4) Rainfall26 (average rainfall per year, mm); (5) Wildlife host species richness. We calculated mammalian
species richness as a proxy for wildlife host species richness. Richness grids were generated from geographic distribution
maps for 4,219 terrestrial mammalian species27. Controlling for sampling bias. For our temporal analysis, we
included the number of JID articles per year since 1945 (nTOTAL517,979 articles) as an offset in our

generalized linear model using a Poisson error structure. To control for bias in our spatial
analysis, we calculated the frequency of the country listed as the address for every author (lead author
and coauthors) in each JID article since 1973. This generated a measure of reporting effort for each
country which was matched to the one degree spatial grid for analysis and was included in the multiple logistic
regression models. Regression analysis. Each logistic regression was repeated ten times using
a separate random draw of the EID event grids for those events where the region reported covered
more than one grid cell. The analyses are summarized in Table 1, and given in full in Supplementary Table 3. Different
random draws can produce a different number of grid cells with events, even though the number of events does not
change. For graphical purposes (that is, in Figs 2 and 3, and Supplementary Figs 1 and 2), we display the first random
draw of the EID event grids. Human population density and number of JID articles were logtransformed before analysis.
Statistical analyses were carried out using SPSS (v. 12.0)28 and R (v. 2.2.1)29. As the spatial autocorrelation (measured
using Morans I) in the EID event occurrence spatial grids was low (0.1), the data were assumed to represent independent
points in these analyses.

Antiobiotic Resistance 2AC

Microbes Solve
Ocean organisms solve antibiotic resistance
National Academies 2009 (The National Academiesthe National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,
Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Councilprovide a public service by working outside the framework of government to
ensure independent advice on matters of science, technology, and medicine. They enlist committees of the nations top scientists,
engineers, and other experts all of whom volunteer their time to study specific concerns. The results of these deliberations are
authoritative, peer-reviewed reports that have inspired some of the nations most significant efforts to improve the health, education, and
welfare of the population. August, 2009, Oceans a n d Human HealtHhttp://dels.nas.edu/resources/staticassets/osb/miscellaneous/Oceans-Human-Health.pdf)

medicines have come from nature mostly from land-based natural organisms. Because
scientists have nearly exhausted the supply of terrestrial plants, animals, and
microorganisms that have interesting medical properties, new sources of drugs are
needed . Occupying more than 70 percent of the Earths surface, the ocean is a virtually unexplored
treasure chest of new and unidentified speciesone of the last frontiers for sources of new natural products. These
natural products are of special interest because of the dazzling diversity and uniqueness
of the creatures that make the sea their home. One reason marine organisms are so
interesting to scientists is because in adapting to the various ocean environments, they
have evolved fascinating repertoires of unique chemicals to help them survive. For example,
anchored to the seafloor, a sponge that protects itself from an animal trying to take over its space by killing the
invader has been compared with the human immune system trying to kill foreign cancer
cells. That same sponge, bathed in seawater containing millions of bacteria, viruses, and
fungi, some of which could be pathogens, has developed antibiotics to keep those
pathogens under control. Those same antibiotics could be used to treat infections in
humans. Sponges, in fact, are among the most prolific sources of diverse chemical compounds. An estimated 30
Historically, many

percent of all potential marine-derived medications currently in the pipelineand about 75 percent of recently patented
marine-derived anticancer compoundscome from marine sponges. Marine-based microorganisms are
another particularly rich source of new medicines. More than 10 drugs available today derive from landbased microbes. Scientists see marine-based microbes as the most promising source of novel medicines from the sea. In
all, more thanthat the exploration of unique habitats, such as deep-sea environments, and the isolation and culture of
marine microor- ganisms offer two underexplored opportunities for discovery of novel chemicals with therapeutic potential.
The successes to date, which are based upon a very limited investigation of both deep-sea organisms and marine
microorganisms, suggest a high potential for continued discovery of new drugs. 0,000

biochemical compounds have been isolated from sea creatures since the 1980s. Because
drug discovery in the marine frontier is a rela- tively young field, only a few marine-derived
drugs are in use today. Many others are in the pipeline. One example is Prialt, a drug developed from the venom
of a fish-killing cone snail. The cone snails produce neurotoxins to paralyze and kill prey; those neurotoxins are being
developed as neuromuscular blocks for individuals with chronic pain, stroke, or epilepsy. Other marinederived drugs are
being tested against herpes, asthma, and breast cancer.

Oceans solve emerging antibiotic resistance

AAAS 9 (American Association for the Advancement of Scientists, February 13, 2009, Fighting the Rising
Tide of Antibiotic Resistance: Causes and Cures in the Sea)

Virulent bacteria are winning the arms race against our current arsenal of antibiotic drugs,
posing a significant and growing threat to global public and ocean health. In the United States,
diseases and secondary infections related to antibiotic resistance are on the rise, difficult to treat, cost in
excess of 5 billion dollars annually and may account for more deaths than from HIV-AIDS, Parkinson's disease,
emphysema or homicide. Research has turned to the ocean to provide insight about potential causes and cures in this
evolutionary battle. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been detected and

isolated from coastal waters and beaches, and resistance patterns in bacteria that
commonly cause seafood illness have been discovered. The presence of these bacteria in
coastal environments may increase the exposure of humans to resistant infections , increase
the potential for new, stronger strains to emerge and prevent common treatment. At the same time, marine natural
products researchers are discovering new ways to potentially render out-of-use antibiotics

effective again, find novel drugs and help fight the resistance war. In this symposium, an
interdisciplinary panel of government, academic and non-profit scientists will present the latest research on the
spreading, strengthening, and evolution of antibiotic resistance in the ocean, and
promising new solutions and treatments from undersea medicine cabinets.

Plan solves antibiotic resistance

NOAA 2009 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, 2/19/2009, Antibiotic Resistance: A Rising Concern In Marine
Ecosystems, http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090213_antibiotic.html)

A team

of scientists, speaking today at the annual meeting of the American Association for
the Advancement of Science, called for new awareness of the potential for antibioticresistant illnesses from the marine environment, and pointed to the marine realm as a
source for possible cures of those threats. The group stated that newly completed studies of ocean beach
users point to an increasing risk of staph infections, and that current treatments for seafood poisoning may be less
effective due to higher than expected antibiotic resistance. The group also asserts that new research has

identified sponge and coral-derived chemicals with the potential for breaking down
antibiotic resistant compounds and that could lead to new personalized medical
treatments. While the marine environment can indeed be hostile to humans, it may also
provide new resources to help reduce our risks from illnesses such as those caused by water borne
staph or seafood poisoning, stated Paul Sandifer, Ph.D., former member of the U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy, chief
scientist of NOAAs Oceans and Human Health Initiative, and co-organizer of the symposium. Carolyn Sotka, also with the
NOAA Oceans and Human Health Initiative and lead organizer of the session, stated It is critically important

that we continue research on the complex interactions between the condition of our
oceans and human health. Without doubt, this research will develop new understandings
of ocean health risks and perhaps more importantly crucial discoveries that will lead to
new solutions to looming public health problems. Sponges and coral. Sponges and coral. High
resolution (Credit: NOAA) Coral, Sponges Point To Personalized Medicine Potential Weve found significant new tools to
fight the antibiotic resistance war, says NOAA research scientist Peter Moeller, Ph.D., in describing the identification of
new compounds derived from a sea sponge and corals. The first hit originates with new compounds that remove the
shield bacteria utilize to protect themselves from antibiotics. The second hit is the discovery of novel antibiotics derived

from marine organisms such as corals, sponges and marine microbes that fight even some of
the worst infectious bacterial strains. With the variety of chemicals we find in the sea and their highly specific
activities, medicines in the near future can be customized to individuals needs, rather than
relying on broad spectrum antibiotics. The research team, a collaboration between scientists at NOAAs
Hollings Marine Laboratory in Charleston, S.C., the Medical University of South Carolina and researchers at North
Carolina State University in Raleigh, N.C., noticed a sponge that seemed to thrive despite being located in the midst of a
dying coral reef. After extraction, testing showed that one of the isolated chemicals, algeliferin,

breaks down a biofilm barrier that bacteria use to protect themselves from threats
including antibiotics. The same chemical can also disrupt or inhibit formation of biofilm on
a variety of bacteria previously resistant to antibiotics which could lead to both palliative
and curative response treatment depending on the problem being addressed. This could
lead to a new class of helper drugs and result in a rebirth for antibiotics no longer thought effective, notes Moeller. Its

potential application to prevent biofilm build-up in stents, intravenous lines and other
medical uses is incredible.

Marine Bacteriophages allow for Phage Therapy which is used to

control Antibiotic resistant diseases
Sekar and Kandasamy 13 (Anandhan, Kathiresan, International Journal of Current Microbiology
and Applied Sciences, Bacterial viruses in marine environment and their ecological role and
bioprospecting potential: a review, http://ijcmas.com/vol-27/Anandhan%20Sekar%20and%20Kathiresan%20 Kandasamy.pdf)
Interest in bacterial viruses is increasing due to their applications in phage therapy (Housby and Mann.

2009), detection and diagnostics (Shen et al., 2009), bacterial infection treatment (Wall et aL9 2010) and recombinant protein
production (Oh et ah, 2007). The bacterial viruses have been identified as important tools in many aspects
of nano-medicine (Villaverde. 2010). However, most of these works are confined to bacterial viruses of terrestrial origin.

Marine bacteriophages have received only little attention. There is a possibility for exploring the potential of marine
cyanophages to be used to prevent or reverse eutrophication. Kurtboke (2005)have developed an improved technique that
involves the exploitation of marine actinophages as a tool to reduce the numbers of common marine bacteria, which impedes
the growth of rare actinomycetes on isolation plates. Phage therapy is the recent development in the field of
phage research due primarily to the increasing incidence of antibiotic- resistant bacteria and the lack of
development of new types of antibiotics to control infections caused by these antibiotic-resistant organisms (Cerveny et ah,
2002). The therapeutic uses of phages in humans have been recently reviewed by Alisky et ah, (1998); the
overall reported success rate for phage therapy is found to be in the range of 80-95%. Phage therapy has
been applied to a variety of infections like bacterial dysentery, wound infections- gastrointestinal tract infections, infections of
skin nasal mucosa and gastrointestinal tract infections (Mathur et ah, 2003).In nanomedicines, viral nanoparticles

(VNPs) are particularly valuable because they are not only biocompatible but also biodegradable, and
also they are non- infectious and non- hazardous to humans and other mammals (Kaiser et al., 2007). The
basic VNP structure is without nucleic acid but with only protein coat and this can be 'programmed' in a number of ways so
that the internal cavity can be filled with drug molecules, imaging reagents- quantum dots and other nanoparticles- whereas
the external surface can be attached with targeting ligands to allow cell-specific delivery of drugs (Pokorski and Steinmetz2011). The potential of bacteriophages to control infectious diseases in fishes is known (Vinod et ah,
2006). Karunasagar et ah, (2007) have isolated lytic bacteriophages against V. harveyi and proved that the bacteriophage
treatment at 2x106 pfu ml-1 level results in over 85% survival of Penaeus monodon larvae suggesting that
bacteriophage therapy will be an effective alternative to antibiotics in shrimp hatcheries since there is a
ban on use of most antibiotics in aquaculture. Phage display is a very powerful technique for obtaining libraries containing
millions or even billions of different peptides or proteins. Phage display (Smith. 1985) has been used for affinity screening of
combinatorial peptide libraries to identify lisands for peptide receptors, define epitopes for monoclonal antibodies, select
enzyme substrates (Kay et ah, 1996). and screen cloned antibody repertoires (Griffiths and Duncan, 1998).

Resistance Now / Bad

Antibiotics are our primary weapon in the war against disease and we
are losing on all fronts antibiotic resistance is growing from every
corner of the globe
Innes 4/30 Emma Innes (citing WHO and independent medical studies), is a contributor to
Agora Dialogue, Antibiotic resistance is now a bigger crisis than the AIDS epidemic: Impact of
bacteria evading drugs means you could die from a mild scratch, 4/30/14, http://agoradialogue.com/antibiotic-resistance-is-now-a-bigger-crisis-than-the-aids-epidemic-impact-ofbacteria-evading-drugs-means-you-could-die-from-a-mild-scratch//OF
Antibiotic resistance is now a bigger crisis than the AIDS epidemic of the 1980s, a landmark report
warned today. The spread of deadly superbugs that evade even the most powerful antibiotics
is happening across the world , United Nations officials have confirmed. The effects will be
devastating meaning a simple scratch or urinary tract infection could kill. Antibiotic
resistance has the potential to affect anyone, of any age, in any country, the U.N.s World Health
Organisation (WHO) said in a report. It is now a major threat to public health, of which the
implications will be devastating . The world is headed for a post-antibiotic era, in which
common infections and minor injuries which have been treatable for decades can once
again kill , said Keiji Fukuda, the WHOs assistant director-general for health security. In its first global report on
antibiotic resistance, with data from 114 countries, the WHO said superbugs able to evade event the
hardest-hitting antibiotics a class of drugs called carbapenems have now been found in all
regions of the world. Drug resistance is driven by the misuse and overuse of antibiotics, which encourages
bacteria to develop new ways of overcoming them. Only a handful of new antibiotics have been
developed and brought to market in the past few decades, and it is a race against time to find more as
bacterial infections increasingly evolve into superbugs resistant to even the most powerful last-resort
medicines reserved for extreme cases. One of the best known superbugs, MRSA, is alone estimated to kill
around 19,000 people every year in the U.S. far more than HIV and AIDS and a similar number in
Europe. The WHO said in some countries, because of resistance, carbapenems now do not work in more
than half of people with common hospital-acquired infections caused by a bacteria called K. pneumoniae,
such as pneumonia, blood infections, and infections in newborn babies and intensive-care patients. Resistance to
one of the most widely used antibiotics for treating urinary tract infections caused by E. coli -medicines
called fluoroquinolones is also very widespread , it said. In the 1980s, when these drugs were first introduced,
resistance was virtually zero, according to the WHO report. The spread of deadly superbugs that evade
even the most powerful antibiotics is happening across the world , United Nations officials have
confirmed. Image shows the superbug MRSA which already kills almost 20,000 people a year in Europe But now there
are countries in many parts of the world where the drugs are ineffective in more than half
of patients. Unless we take significant actions to improve efforts to prevent infections and also change how we
produce, prescribe and use antibiotics, the world will lose more and more of these global public
health goods and the implications will be devastating , Dr Fukuda said. Laura Piddock, director of
Antibiotic Action campaign group and a professor of microbiology at Birmingham University, said the world needed to
respond as it did to the AIDS crisis of the 1980s. Defeating drug resistance will require political will,

commitment from all stakeholders and considerable investment in research , surveillance and
stewardship programmes, she said. Jennifer Cohn of the international medical charity Mdecins Sans Frontires agreed
with the WHOs assessment and confirmed the problem had spread to many corners of the world . We
see horrendous rates of antibiotic resistance wherever we look in our field operations ,
including children admitted to nutritional centres in Niger, and people in our surgical and trauma units in Syria, she said.

Top experts conclude that antibiotic resistance will be apocalyptic

Sample 13 Ian Sample (Citing medical studies) is the science correspondent for the Guardian,
a British newspaper, Antibiotic-resistant diseases pose 'apocalyptic' threat, top expert
says, 1/23/13, The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/jan/23/antibioticresistant-diseases-apocalyptic-threat//OF
Britain's most senior medical adviser has warned MPs that the rise in drug-resistant diseases could
trigger a national emergency comparable to a catastrophic terrorist attack , pandemic flu or
major coastal flooding. Dame Sally Davies, the chief medical officer, said the threat from infections that are
resistant to frontline antibiotics was so serious that the issue should be added to the
government's national risk register of civil emergencies. She described what she called an "apocalyptic
scenario" where people going for simple operations in 20 years' time die of routine infections
"because we have run out of antibiotics". The register was established in 2008 to advise the public and
businesses on national emergencies that Britain could face in the next five years. The highest priority risks on the latest
register include a deadly flu outbreak, catastrophic terrorist attacks, and major flooding on the scale of 1953, the last
occasion on which a national emergency was declared in the UK. Speaking to MPs on the Commons science and
technology committee, Davies said she would ask the Cabinet Office to add antibiotic resistance to the national risk
register in the light of an annual report on infectious disease she will publish in March. Davies declined to elaborate on the
report, but said its publication would coincide with a government strategy to promote more responsible use of antibiotics
among doctors and the clinical professions. "We need to get our act together in this country," she told the committee. She
told the Guardian: "" There are few public health issues of potentially greater importance for

society than antibiotic resistance. It means we are at increasing risk of developing

infections that cannot be treated but resistance can be managed. "That is why we will be publishing a new
cross-government strategy and action plan to tackle this issue in early spring." The issue of drug resistance is as old as
antibiotics themselves, and arises when drugs knock out susceptible infections, leaving hardier, resilient strains behind.
The survivors then multiply, and over time can become unstoppable with frontline medicines. Some of the best known are
so-called hospital superbugs such as MRSA that are at the root of outbreaks among patients. " In the past, most

people haven't worried because we've always had new antibiotics to turn to," said Alan
Johnson, consultant clinical scientist at the Health Protection Agency. "What has changed is that the development
pipeline is running dry. We don't have new antibiotics that we can rely on in the immediate
future or in the longer term." Changes in modern medicine have exacerbated the problem by making patients
more susceptible to infections. For example, cancer treatments weaken the immune system, and the use of catheters
increases the chances of bugs entering the bloodstream. " We are becoming increasingly reliant on

antibiotics in a whole range of areas of medicine. If we don't have new antibiotics to deal
with the problems of resistance we see, we are going to be in serious trouble," Johnson
added. The supply of new antibiotics has dried up for several reasons, but a major one is that drugs companies see
greater profits in medicines that treat chronic conditions, such as heart disease, which patients must take for years or
even decades. "There is a broken market model for making new antibiotics," Davies told the MPs. Davies has met senior
officials at the World Health Organisation and her counterparts in other countries to develop a strategy to tackle antibiotic
resistance globally. Drug resistance is emerging in diseases across the board. Davies said 80% of
gonorrhea was now resistant to the frontline antibiotic tetracycline, and infections were rising in young and middle-aged
people. Multi-drug resistant TB was also a major threat, she said. Another worrying trend is the rise in infections that are
resistant to powerful antibiotics called carbapenems, which doctors rely on to tackle the most serious infections.
Resistant bugs carry a gene variant that allows them to destroy the drug. What concerns some
scientists is that the gene variant can spread freely between different kinds of bacteria , said
Johnson. Bacteria resistant to carbapenems were first detected in the UK in 2003, when three cases were reported. The
numbers remained low until 2007, but have since leapt to 333 in 2010, with 217 cases in the first six months of 2011,
according to the latest figures from the HPA.

Antibiotic resistance is increasing now

BMJ 8 The British Medical Journal is a renowned medical publication, World Faces Global
Pandemic Of Antibiotic Resistance, Experts Warn, 9/18/2008, Science Daily,
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080918192836.htm//OF
A concerted global response is needed to address rising rates of bacterial resistance caused
by the use and abuse of antibiotics or " we will return to the pre-antibiotic era ", write Professor Otto Cars
and colleagues in an editorial. All antibiotic use "uses up" some of the effectiveness of that antibiotic, diminishing the
ability to use it in the future, write the authors, and antibiotics can no longer be considered as a renewable source. They

the development of new

antibiotics is declining . More than a dozen new classes of antibiotics were developed between 1930 and 1970,

point out that existing antibiotics are losing their effect at an alarming pace, while

but only two new classes have been developed since then. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and
Control, the most important disease threat in Europe is from micro-organisms that have

become resistant to antibiotics . As far back as 2000, the World Health Organisation was calling for a massive
effort to address the problem of antimicrobial resistance to prevent the "health catastrophe of tomorrow". So why has so
little been done to address the problem of resistance, ask the authors? Antibiotics are over prescribed, still illegally sold
over the counter in some EU countries, and self medication with leftover medicines is commonplace. There are
alarming reports about serious consequences of antibiotic resistance from all around the
world . However, there is still a dearth of data on the magnitude and burden of antibiotic resistance, or its economic
impact on individuals, health care, and society. This, they suggest, may explain why there has been little response to this
public health threat from politicians, public health workers, and consumers. In addition, there are significant

scientific challenges but few incentives to developing new antibiotics , state the authors. The
authors believe that priority must be given to the most urgently needed antibiotics and incentives given for developing
antibacterials with new mechanisms of action. In addition, "the use of new antibiotics must be safeguarded by regulations
and practices that ensure rational use, to avoid repeating the mistakes we have made by overusing the old ones", they
say.

Resistance Now -- MRSA

A MRSA superbug just popped up in Brazil Doctors conclude this is
a worst-case scenario
HSNW 4/18 Homeland Security Newswire (Citing Doctors and NIH reports) is a news
organization that deals with security issues, New MRSA superbug discovered in Brazil, 4/18/14,
Homeland Security Newswire, http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20140418-newmrsa-superbug-discovered-in-brazil//OF
Researchers have identified a new superbug that caused a bloodstream infection in Brazil ian patients.
The new superbug is part of a class of highly-resistant bacteria known as methicillin-resistant
Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA , which is a major cause of hospital and community-associated infections. The
superbug has also acquired high levels of resistance to vancomycin, the most common
and least expensive antibiotic used to treat severe MRSA infections worldwide . The most
worrisome aspect of the discovery is that genomic analyses indicated that this novel vancomycin-resistant MRSA
superbug belongs to a genetic lineage that is commonly found outside hospitals (designated community-associated
MRSA). An international research team led by Cesar A. Arias, M.D., Ph.D., at the University of Texas Health Science
Center at Houston (UTHealth) has identified a new superbug that caused a bloodstream infection in a Brazilian patient.
The report appeared in the 17 April issue of the New England Journal of Medicine. The new superbug is part of a class of
highly-resistant bacteria known as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus or MRSA, which is a major cause of
hospital and community-associated infections. The superbug has also acquired high levels of resistance to vancomycin,
the most common and least expensive antibiotic used to treat severe MRSA infections worldwide. A UTHealth release
quotes Arias to say that the most worrisome aspect of the discover is that genomic analyses indicated

this novel vancomycin-resistant MRSA superbug belongs to a genetic lineage that is

commonly found outside hospitals (designated community-associated MRSA). Arias is the reports senior

that

author and an associate professor of medicine, microbiology and molecular genetics at the UTHealth Medical School.

Previous research has suggested that community-associated MRSA can disseminate

rapidly among people and is responsible for the majority of skin and soft tissue infections
(sores) in patients of all ages. Some of these infections can become serious and even fatal . Since
community-associated MRSA is thought to be transmitted mainly by skin contact, the new superbug may affect
not only sick people or those with a weakened immune system but also healthy
individuals , according to Arias. Apart from causing localized skin infections, the MRSA superbug has the
ability to invade the bloodstream and may become a serious threat. This is the first-ever
reported bloodstream infection caused by a highly vancomycin- resistant MRSA bacteria,
Arias said. If we lose vancomycin, it would make it very difficult and expensive to treat
these infections, he said. Arias and his colleagues conducted microbiological and genetic analyses of an MRSA
superbug recovered from the blood of a 35-year-old Brazilian man and identified a novel transferable genetic element
(plasmid) that carries the genes necessary for vancomycin resistance (vanA gene cluster). The presence and
dissemination of community-associated MRSA containing vanA could become a serious public health concern, report the
authors in the paper. Since this is the only documented case of this type of infection, Arias said, it is too early to tell
whether this specific superbug will lead to a bigger threat. Barbara E. Murray, M.D., report co-author and director of the
Division of Infectious Diseases at the UTHealth Medical School, said, The worst resistance possible has

now appeared in the community-associated MRSA clone. What is the next step? There will have
to be increased surveillance in South America and worldwide in the future, said Murray, who is the
holder of the J. Ralph Meadows Professorship in Internal Medicine at the UTHealth Medical School and president of the
Infectious Diseases Society of America. Arias leads the UTHealth Medical School Laboratory for Antimicrobial Research,
which focuses on studying the clinical and molecular aspects of antibiotic resistance, attempting to understand the
complex mechanisms by which superbugs become resistant to antibiotics and then designing new strategies to fight them.
Arias is also the founder and scientific director of the Molecular Genetics and Antimicrobial Resistance Unit at Universidad
El Bosque in Bogota, Colombia and co-directs the International Center for Microbial Genomics at the same university.
These research units have become a major surveillance center for resistance pathogens in South America. The
collaborative work derived from these laboratories has identified novel trends in antimicrobial resistance and has
characterized the emergence of particular superbugs in the region. Arias and Murray are on the faculty of the University of
Texas Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences at Houston. The report received support from the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Institutes of Health.

CRE No Safeguards
No early intervention CRE is in stealth mode
MNT 6/4/14 Medical News Today is a periodical that reports medical news, Phantom'
superbugs cloak themselves to avoid detection, 6/4/2014,
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/277663.php//OF
Research led by the University of Queensland in Australia has uncovered antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the
Middle East that avoid detection by cloaking themselves with genetic material. The
" phantom" superbugs belong to a particularly deadly class of antibiotic-resistant bacteria
called carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae ( CRE ), which kill up to half of infected patients . In
2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that CRE superbugs are on the rise in US hospitals. By
cloaking themselves, the newly discovered phantom versions of CRE place the population
at increased risk of deadly infections, say the researchers, who report their findings in the journal
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy. They warn the hard-to-detect superbugs may quickly spread
globally, given that the Middle East is a popular medical tourism destination and its highly
paid job market attracts workers from all over the world. Hosam Mamoon Zowawi, a researcher in the
Centre for Clinical Research at the University of Queensland (UQ) says they found the phantom superbug during a
region-wide collaborative study on antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of
Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates . bacteria in a petri dish By

the newly discovered phantom versions of CRE place the population at

increased risk of deadly infections. He says the phantom superbug was present in samples
from all the GCC states, and "not only were the bacteria widespread, but they were found
to be carrying genetic material that empowers them to resist antibiotics and avoid
detection in routine laboratory testing . This means patients are not being treated quickly with the right
antibiotics, allowing the bacteria time to spread." The team also found several clusters of the phantom
superbug in different patients from the same hospitals, suggesting infection is spreading
from patient to patient . They hope their findings will encourage labs to bring in more specific techniques to detect
cloaking themselves,

phantom superbugs. This will be essential to minimize spread, says Mr. Zowawi. The team is now working on new tools
that can rapidly identify the phantom superbug and other drug-resistant bacteria. Mr. Zowawi says the intention is to
advance surveillance of superbugs by reducing turnaround times for test results and to help clinicians "apply targeted
treatment and implement infection control precautions sooner."

Phantom CRE is widespread in the middle East and its moving fast
Stallard 6/4 Brian Stallard is a reporter for Nature World News, a news organization that
focuses on scientific topics, Cloaked "Phantom" Bacteria Threaten the Middle East, 6/4/14,
Nature World News, http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/7403/20140604/cloaked-phantombacteria-threaten-middle-east.htm//OF
Already highly dangerous bacteria called carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae ( CRE ) have
learned to "cloak" themselves with genetic material, effectively hiding from the body's
natural defenses . Experts are calling these new types of CRE "phantom bacteria" and have
already found a multitude of them in the Middle East . According to a study published in the journal
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy, these hard-to-detect superbugs may soon find their way
into other parts of the world through international travel , just as other diseases such as Middle East
respiratory system (MERS) already have. Researcher Hosam Mamoon Zowawi, from the University of Queensland, said

the "phantom" superbugs were found during a field survey of antibiotic-resistant

microbes in the Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC ) states of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. "Not only were the bacteria widespread, but they were
found to be carrying genetic material which empowers them to resist antibiotics and avoid
detection in routine laboratory testing ," Zoawawi said in a statement. And since these bugs are difficult to
detect, he added, they avoid being treated with the right antibiotics, allowing them to spread
not only to new hosts, but from patient-to-patient. Close examination of these "phantom" CRE

has allowed the research team to develop an early interpretation as to how the bacteria
cloaks itself , stealing away into a host and colonizing long before it is finally noticed. Zowawi and his colleagues are
now in the midst of developing new diagnostic techniques based off of their findings in hopes
that they can help identify this elusive superbug fast enough to prevent it from becoming
a global problem . "We hope this will help in advancing the surveillance of superbugs by reducing the turnaround
time to identify the deadly bacteria," Zowawi said. "It will also assist clinicians to apply targeted treatment and implement
infection control precautions sooner."

TB Threat Is Real
It gets worse there are growing strains of totally drug resistant TB
and we know nothing about how to treat it
Velayati et al 13 Ali Akbar Velayati and Parissa Farnia are doctors at the Mycobacteriology
Research Centre, National Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Mohammad
Reza Masjedi is a doctor at the Chronic Respiratory Diseases Research Centre, National
Research Institute of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, The totally drug resistant tuberculosis
(TDR-TB), 4/12/13, US National Library of Medicine,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3631557//OF
In 2009, we proposed the term Totally DrugResistant Tuberculosis (TDR- TB ) for TB strains that
showed in-vitro resistance to all first and second line drugs tested (isoniazid, rifampicin,
streptomycin, ethambutol, pyrazinamide, ethionamide, para-aminosalicylic acid, cycloserine, ofloxacin, amikacin,
ciprofloxacin, capreomycin, kanamycin) [1]. Our detected TDR-TB patients remained smear and culture

positive after 18 months median treatment despite second line drugs . Even changing the treatment to
coamoxiclav (625 mg per 8 h) or clarithromycin (1,000 mg/day-1) along with high dose of isoniazid (15 mg/kg-1) led to no
improvement [1]. Majority of cases were expired or remained positive in the next 4 years of
follow-up. These dangerous forms of TB bacilli were also found in other countries i.e., Italy and India
for Diseases Control and Preventions reported the first cases of TDRTB in South Africa and they stated the disease is virtually untreatable [4]. National Reference TB laboratory
[2,3]. Just earlier this month Centers

(NRL) of Iran was among the first laboratories who could identify TDR-TB bacilli. Based on availability of TDR-culture
isolates, investigation was started at cellular and molecular level. The primary results using transmission and atomic force
microscopes, confirmed morphological variation in TDR-TB isolates [5,6]. Considerable number of bacilli were round
(35%), oval (15%) or even multiple branching forms. In addition, various type of cell division i.e., symmetrical,
asymmetrical and budding were found in their exponential phase of growth (Figure 1) [5]. The cell wall was significantly
thicker than MDR-TB isolates and recently, pilli like structure (10-15%) that protruded from the head, tail or side poles of
the bacilli were also detected [7-9]. Whether they use them for genetically or nutrients exchanges are still under
investigations. These findings will rage a new debate on untreatable TB drug resistance

phenomena , for example, whether variation in shape and size of bacilli could affect transmission rate? If so, then
what will be the time that droplet nuclei (round or oval cells) can remain suspended in air?
Secondly, how to protect the health care workers when TDR-TB reported in the hospital ? Do
we need to keep the TDR-TB patients in isolated ward and if yes for how long? If size of bacilli reaches to minimum of
0.3 m [6] what will be the best protective cloth for laboratory personal? Third concern is about hostmicrobes
interaction? What is the fate of round or oval shape TB bacilli inside the host cells? Because, it is known that the shapes
of microorganisms and not size considered as the dominant factor for being recognized or phagocytized by immune cells
[10]. Finally, do we have to consider the thicker cell wall [7] in TDR-TB bacilli while designing new drugs and if it is so,
whether the previously designed drugs could be effective? Last but not the least; as far as, there is no cure for

TDR-TB patient, hence it is not exaggeration to say that world is on danger of untreatable
drug resistant tuberculosis strain . Therefore, if authorized health organization do not
consider immediate action plan for such bacilli, then we may face a new outbreaks of
untreatable TB.

Its a timebomb global epidemic

New England Journal of Medicine, 2002
(http://www.amazon.com/Timebomb-Epidemic-Multi-Drug-ResistantTuberculosis/dp/0071359249)
Timebomb, written by Lee Reichman with Janice Hopkins Tanne, shows that this desperate
situation has already occurred. Though clearly unintentionally, a combination of politics,
economics, the emergence of a new infectious disease, and scientific belief has contributed to a
major epidemic of tuberculosis in Russia. Multidrug resistance is a major component of this
epidemic in prisons and parts of the civilian population. What makes the situation so worrisome is
that the epidemic was well under way even without the added boost of HIV infection. Recent
statistics from the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on

HIV/AIDS confirm that the pandemic of HIV infection is growing faster in Russia than anywhere
else in the world. This appalling combination of HIV infection and multidrug-resistant
tuberculosis is -- as the authors quite rightly assert -- a deadly time bomb, with
consequences that reach far beyond the borders of any one country.

Only getting worse

Sinha, writer for Voice of America, 1/23/2012
(Vidushi, Untreatable New Forms of TB Raising Alarm,
http://www.voanews.com/content/untreatable-new-forms-of-tb-raising-alarm137987628/160344.html)
In the world of tuberculosis (TB) control, it is the worst-case scenario. Doctors in Mumbai,
India, reported last month they are seeing a group of patients infected with what they called
"totally drug-resistant" tuberculosis. Indian health officials are still investigating those cases, but
untreatable strains of the bacterial respiratory disease have turned up before: in 15 patients in
Iran in 2009 and in two patients in Italy in 2007. Public health experts responding and there is
new hope some for new weapons against a disease that is killing 5,000 people every day.
The World Health Organization (WHO) lists 69 countries that have reported what is officially
called "extensively drug-resistant" tuberculosis (XDR-TB). It's a form of the mycobacterium that,
like the one reported in India, isn't killed by first- and second-line anti-TB injectable drugs. The
WHO says at least 25,000 cases of XDR-TB are reported worldwide every year.
Dr. Margaret Chan, WHO's director-general, views the emergence of drug-resistant
tuberculosis with alarm.
"Call it what you may, a time bomb or a powder keg. Any way you look at it, this is a
potentially explosive situation," she said.

TB Russia
TB is back in Russia with a vengeance
Callaway 14 Ewen Callaway is a writer for Nature, a weekly science journal, Russia's drugresistant TB spreading more easily, 1/26/14, Nature, http://www.nature.com/news/russia-s-drugresistant-tb-spreading-more-easily-1.14589//OF
Bacterial 'superbugs' are getting ever more potent . Tuberculosis ( TB ) strains in Russia carry
mutations that not only make them resistant to antibiotics but also help them to spread
more effectively , according to an analysis of 1,000 genomes from different TB isolates one of the largest wholegenome study of a single bacterial species so far. TB, which is caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis,
exploded in Russia and other former Soviet nations in the early 1990s , after the collapse of the
Soviet Union and its health system. The incomplete antibiotic regimens some patients received, meanwhile, sparked
rampant drug resistance. But the latest study of TB cases in Russia, published today in Nature Genetics1, indicates that
such programmatic failures may not be the only explanation for the rise of drug-resistant TB in the region biological
factors also play a big part. As part of a long-standing effort to study the rampant drug-resistant TB in Samara, a region of
Russia about 1,000 kilometres southeast of Moscow, researchers collected TB isolates from 2,348 patients and
sequenced the entire genomes of 1,000 of them. This enabled the team to identify previously unknown mutations linked to
antibiotic resistance, as well as 'compensatory mutations' that improve the ability of drug-resistant TB to spread. Nearly

half of the TB isolates were multi-drug resistant , which means that they were impervious to the two common
while 16% of these isolates also harboured mutations that
made them impervious to second-line drugs . These infections are more expensive to treat, and patients
who receive ineffective drugs are more likely to spread TB. It certainly adds an extra layer of worry, because one had
assumed if you could solve programmatic weaknesses, you would solve the problem of
the drug-resistant TB , says the study's lead author Francis Drobniewski, a microbiologist at Queen Mary
University of London. But this does seem to be a biological problem as well. Although we know the general story
of TB drug resistance in Russia, these new findings are still shocking, says Christopher Dye, an
epidemiologist at the World Health Organization in Geneva, Switzerland. "Truly scary," he adds. Antibiotics block
essential functions in bacteria, such as making proteins or building cell walls . Mutations in the
first-line antibiotics that cure most TB infections,

genes involved in these duties can lead to antibiotic resistance, but they also tend to make bacteria divide more slowly.
But laboratory experiments have shown that bacteria can develop compensatory mutations

that restore the pathogen's ability to divide quickly . Drobniewskis team found such mutations in more
than 400 isolates that were resistant to the first-line antibiotic rifampicin, and the authors suggest that the mutations might
overcome the growth-slowing effect of evolving resistance. The worst scenario is that the organisms are
developing resistance, compensating for it, and evolving into something thats new and
different , thats much less treatable, says Megan Murray, an epidemiologist at the Harvard School of Public Health in
Boston, Massachusetts. In a 2013 study2, her team found both widespread drug resistance and
compensatory mutations in their analysis of 123 TB genomes from around the world.

TB Russia Impact
Copulos 2k Milton Copulos is the president of the National Defense Council Foundation, a
nonprofit think tank that specializes in security concerns, POTENTIAL RUSSIAN
DESTABILIZATION RESULTING FROM AN MDR-TB EPIDEMIC, 10/15/2000, ndcf.org,
http://ndcf.dyndns.org/ndcf/Publications/2000/Bertek/Bertek.htm//OF
By the late 1970s, it was widely believed that by the end of the century, tuberculosis might be
totally eradicated . This appeared reasonable as TB rates steadily declined following World War II. In the mid dle
1980s , however, it became increasingly evident that there was little basis for such optimism.
In the industrialized West, TB rates stabilized, and in the developing world they began to
rise. Today, tuberculosis has reached epidemic proportions in some lesser-developed
countries . The World Health Organization reports that tuberculosis kills between 2 million
and 3 million people each year . Some 8 million become sick from the disease. To put these figures in
perspective, TB kills more people each year than AIDS, malaria and tropical diseases
combined. Indeed, it is the leading cause of death in the developing world. Percent of Total TB Cases: Foreign Born
Residents 1989-1999While significant progress has been made in eliminating TB in the United States, the job is far from
complete. In 1998, the latest year for which data is available, 18 states reported at least 100 cases of TB, and every state
reported at least one case. California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas had the highest number of reported cases,
representing 54 percent of the total. The prevalence of TB cases in New York and California is attributed in part to their
substantial foreign-born populations. The proportion of TB cases represented by the foreign-born has steadily increased in
recent years. More disturbing were reports of drug resistance among TB isolates (MDR-TB). Overall,
8.1 percent of all cases (1086) showed resistance to at least isoniazid. Roughly 150 cases (1.1 percent) of isolates
resistant to both isoniazid and rifampin, i.e. Multi-Drug Resistant Tuberculosis, were reported. Almost half of these cases
were reported by New York and California. Among foreign-born residents, the proportion of MDR-TB cases increases 31
percent. Indeed, it is the advent of MDR-TB that holds the seeds of worldwide disaster. THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM

Like other drug-resistant strains of bacteria, the advent of Multi-Drug Resistant

Tuberculosis is most likely a consequence of the misuse of antibiotics , particularly in the
developing world. Typically, tuberculosis is treated with a combination of drugs that have two
essential properties: antibacterial activity and the ability to inhibit the development of
resistance. T he Centers for Disease Control and Prevention protocol for treatment of TB in
adults calls for the use of a combination of isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide and either ethambutol or
streptomycin. The treatment is generally continued for a period of roughly six months in
routine cases. If the disease progression is severe, however, the treatment may take as long as one year. Where the
conventional treatment is successful, improvement will be observed in the patient within a month. Patient compliance,
however, has been a major problem in treating conventional tuberculosis. For many patients, especially in developing
countries, the importance of taking all of their medication on a regular schedule is simply not well understood. Also, the
cost of medications can prove problematical in poverty-stricken nations. Whatever the cause, poor patient compliance has
had a devastating consequence: the advent of Drug Resistant and Multi-Drug Resistant

Tuberculosis. MDR-TB : THE SEEDS OF AN EPIDEMIC The World Health Organization (WHO)
estimates that more than 50 million people are currently infected with Drug Resistant TB.
In a March 2000 report, the WHO documenting the prevalence of MDR-TB in some 38 "Hot Spots" around the
globe. In several, specifically Estonia, Latvia, China, Iran and Russia, the rates of infection
have reached alarming proportions. In Estonia, for example, 18 percent of all TB cases were of the MultiDrug Resistant strain - up from 14 percent in 1997. But, the phenomenon is not limited to regions outside the developed
world. The Canadian Bureau of AIDS, STD and TB reports that all but two provinces in Canada have experienced cases
of Drug Resistant TB. A 1998 study by the Bureau found that 11.8 percent of all TB cases in Canada evidenced some
drug resistance, and 1.2 percent were MDR-TB. Russian Prison for TB Patients One of the "Hot Spots"

causing the greatest concern is the Russian prison system . According to a survey of Russian prisons
by Medecins Sans Frontiers (Doctors Without Borders) more than 10 percent of all inmates - roughly
110,000 individuals - are infected with TB . Of these, roughly 30 percent are infected with MDRTB . With some 300,000 prisoners released annually, this means that around 10,000 individuals infected with
MDR-TB will enter the civilian population each year. Since every individual infected with
MDR-TB could infect from 10 to 14 people over the course of a year , by 2010, Russian could
have as many as one million of its citizens infected with MDR-TB . A 1999 report by the Public

Health Research Institute echoes the concern over the situation in Russian prisons stating: " The

tuberculosis
epidemic in Russia , particularly Russian prisons has reached alarming proportions . The prison
system acts as an epidemiological pump, releasing into society tens of thousands of
active TB cases and hundreds of thousands of infected individuals each year . The high
rate of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis among them is especially threatening ." The report warned

that "transnational cases"; infections contracted in one country and then transported to another will become increasingly
common. This notion is supported by the fact that the proportion of reported TB cases accounted for by foreign-born
residents in industrialized nations such as the United States and Canada have been rising for several years. The
question, however, is what to do to prevent the problem from becoming a global pandemic. Fortunately, there is an
answer.

TB China
China has a growing MDR-TB and XDR-TB
McNeil 12 Donald McNeil is a reporter for the New York Times, China: Survey Reveals a
Growing Number of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Cases, 6/11/12, The New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/health/drug-resistant-tuberculosis-on-the-rise-inchina.html//OF
China has a serious epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis , according to the first national survey
of the disease, which was carried out by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and published last week in The New
England Journal of Medicine. Of the roughly 4,000 tuberculosis patients tested, a third of those

with new cases and half of those with previously treated cases had drug-resistant disease .
Moreover, a quarter of the previously treated patients had multi-drug-resistant, or MDR, strains .
Eight percent of those had extensively drug resistant TB, as defined by its resistance to four
antibiotics: isoniazid, rifampin, ofloxacin and kanamycin. Strains resistant to that many drugs are nearly
incurable . Even treating MDR tuberculosis can require several years and cost $16,000 for drugs and far more for
hospitalization. China , which has about one-fifth of the worlds people , has about a quarter of
its drug-resistant TB cases , the Chinese center estimated. The report made it clear that Chinas current
treatment strategies were a failure. More than 40 percent of those treated for MDR tuberculosis had not taken
their last dose. The problem was particularly acute among people seen in general hospitals. Despite the fact that
many newly infected patients had drug-resistant strains of TB, clinics did not test them for
this . Some patients had been started on drugs without even receiving a firm diagnosis.

MDR-TB will run China dry their economy cant take it

Juan 13 Shan Juan is a reporter for China Daily, an online Chinese news source, Nearly
120,000 new cases of MDR-TB in China every year, 4/19/2013, ChinaDaily.com,
http://africa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-04/19/content_16423982.htm//OF
Heavily burdened by rising multi-drug-resistant Tuberculosis, China now has nearly 120,000 new cases on
the mainland each year , according to public health experts. That accounts for 25 percent of the
world's total per year , according to statistics from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. MDRTB is defined as TB, which is resistant to isoniazid and rifampicin, the most powerful first-line anti-TB drugs. " MDR-TB
needs more complicated diagnosis methods, longer and much more expensive treatment
compared with common TB, which causes huge economic and human resource loss ," said
Chen Mingting, deputy director of the National Center for Tuberculosis of China CDC. With no effective intervention, the
number of MDR-TB patients in China is expected to reach 710,000 on the mainland by
2020, which would incur an economic loss of more than 99 billion yuan mostly in medical
treatment, he said, citing previous studies by CDC. " That might upset social stability and harm
economic development of the nation," he said.

Studies prove China has a high rate of MDR and XDR TB

Tang et al 11 Shenjie Tang, Qing Zhang, Jinming Yu, Yidian Liu, Wei Sha, Hua Sun, Lin Fan,
Jin Gu, Xiaohui Hao, Lan Yao, and Heping Xiao, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University
School of Medicine, Shanghai, Peoples Republic of China (S. Tang, Q. Zhang, J. Yu, Y. Liu, W.
Sha, H. Sun, L. Fan, J. Gu, X. Hao, L. Yao, H. Xiao); Shanghai Key Laboratory of Tuberculosis,
Shanghai (S. Tang, Q. Zhang, J. Yu, Y. Liu, W. Sha, H. Sun, L. Fan, J. Gu, X. Hao, L. Yao, H.
Xiao); Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai (J. Yu), Extensively Drug-Resistant
Tuberculosis, China, March 2011, US National Library of Medicine,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166004//OF
The prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis ( TB ) is a serious problem in the Peoples
Republic of China . China is 1 of 22 countries with the highest incidence of TB (1). It is also

1 of 27 countries with the highest incidence of multidrug-resistant TB ( MDR TB ) and extensively

TB ). According to the national baseline survey on TB in 2007 and 2008, the frequency of MDR
TB among pulmonary TB patients in China was 8.3%. We estimate that there are 120,000 new cases of MDR
TB in China per year , which accounts for 24.0% of new cases worldwide (510,000) per year. XDR TB has recently
drug-resistant TB ( XDR

emerged as a global public health problem (2). It is defined as TB with resistance to at least isoniazid, rifampin, a
fluoroquinolone, and 1 of 3 injectable second-line drugs (amikacin, kanamycin, or capreomycin). XDR TB is a type of
MDR TB that shows resistance to isoniazid and rifampin. Recent reports on current prevalence of XDR TB (3,4) indicate
that China now has the second highest incidence of MDR TB worldwide . However, there is no
information available on XDR TB in China. To obtain information on XDR TB in China, we conducted a study at Shanghai
Pulmonary Hospital. It is the only specialized hospital for TB in Shanghai and plays a major role in treating TB patients
and providing state-of- the-art treatment. Most patients referred to this hospital have been previously treated or have
recurrent TB. Therefore, higher rates of MDR TB and XDR TB are expected in this setting, which is not comparable to
community or multicenter-based studies. Patients with culture-proven MDR TB during January 2008June 2009 were
retrospectively evaluated. All patients were HIV negative. Drug susceptibility testing was conducted for culture-positive
isolates by using the BACTEC 960 System (Becton Dickinson, Franklin Lakes, NJ, USA) at concentrations of 0.1 g/mL
for isoniazid, 1 g/mL for rifampin, 5 g/mL for ethambutol, 1 g/mL for streptomycin, 2.5 g/mL for capreomycin, 1g/mL
for amikacin, and 2 g/mL for ofloxacin. Among 518 strains that were culture positive for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, 350
(67.6%) were drug resistant and 168 (32.4%) were drug sensitive. A total of 217 (41.9%) of 518 strains were classified as
MDR and accounted for 62.0% of drug-resistant strains. Among 217 MDR strains, 45 (20.7%) were from patients who had
a new diagnosis of TB, and 172 (79.3%) were from patients whose medical history included treatment for TB for >4
weeks. A total of 65 (12.6%) strains were XDR, of which 51 were from patients previously treated. These strains
accounted for 18.6% of drug-resistant strains and 30.0% of MDR strains. Of 217 MDR isolates, 217 (100.0%), 217
(100.0%), 172 (79.3%), 175 (80.6%), 170 (78.3%), 68 (31.3%), and 69 (31.8%) were resistant to isoniazid, rifampicin,
streptomycin, ethambutol, ofloxacin, capreomycin, and amikacin, respectively. Of 65 XDR isolates, 65 (100.0%), 65
(100.0%), 61 (93.9%), 60 (92.3%), 65 (100.0%), 60 (92.3%), and 60 (92.3%) were resistant to isoniazid, rifampicin,
streptomycin, ethambutol, ofloxacin, capreomycin, and amikacin, respectively. Our results indicate that 30.0% of MDR
strains were XDR strains. Although our study was conducted in only 1 hospital, this prevalence of XDR strains

indicates that XDR TB in China is a serious concern . A total of 78.3% of MDR isolates were resistant to
ofloxacin, which is higher than rates reported for South Korea (42.8%) (5) and Taiwan (16.6%) (6). Population-based
studies have reported lower frequencies of XDR strains among MDR strains; 9.9% for 14 qualified reference laboratories
(7), 5.3% for South Korea (8), and 23.9% for South Africa among patients co-infected with HIV and TB (9). In our study, 2
factors may have contributed to high drug-resistance rates. First, fluoroquinolones have been widely used for treatment of
respiratory tract bacterial infections because of their efficacy and mild adverse reactions. Second, we also prescribed
fluoroquinolones for treatment of patients with drug-resistant TB and some patients with drug-sensitive TB who could not
tolerate first-line anti-TB drugs. More than 90% of patients with XDR TB had strains resistant to streptomycin, ethambutol,
capreomycin, and amikacin, which was higher than rates reported in other studies (5,9,10). Currently, anti-TB
medications in China for treatment of patients with XDR TB are scarce . This scarcity has resulted in poor
treatment outcomes in patients with XDR TB. One limitation of our study is that we investigated patients at only 1
specialized TB hospital in Shanghai. Therefore, data are not representative for the general population. A communitybased multicenter study is needed to determine the true prevalence of XDR TB in China. Nevertheless, our study confirms
that the prevalence of MDR TB and XDR TB is high in some areas. It also emphasizes the need to
increase TB prevention and therapy, educate society about TB, implement modern TB control strategies, and strengthen
basic and clinical research to curb the spread of MDR TB and XDR TB.

Agriculture / Instability
Antibiotic resistance undermines food production and causes global
instability
Wahlberg, Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, et al, 2012
(Maria, Five challenging future scenarios for societal security,
https://www.msb.se/RibData/Filer/pdf/26562.pdf)
In particular, the inability of healthcare to use established methods of treatment is perceived as a
problem, but antibiotic resistance is also causing major problems for food producers
through diseases in animals and plants. Human behaviour and habits have also changed
worldwide. People stay at home even for simple colds and increasingly refrain from
travelling.
To some extent, the new methods of treatment that biotechnology has created compensate for
the treatments that require antibiotics no longer working, but common infections are difficult to
treat. Surgical intervention is avoided wherever possible because of the risk of bacterial infection,
and many people are waiting as long as possible to replace a worn-out hip or choose to treat the
various forms of cancer with new, less proven treatments rather than surgery.
The situation has created a lot of tension and unrest around the world. Some countries have
been identified as being more lax in managing both the ban on antibiotics and in protecting
against infections. A constant cause of concern is what would happen if a worldwide
pandemic were to break out. In conjunction with an influenza outbreak, many people suffered
bacterial complications, which are now very difficult to treat. Additionally, control of the pandemic
itself was complicated by the fact that the virus developed resistance to antiviral drugs. Many
people across the world harbour a deep distrust of the authorities' handling of the
antibiotic resistance issue. Conspiracy theories and rumours spread quickly through
various communication channels.

Solvency

Microorganisms Best
Microbes are key compounds produced much more easily than in
macroorganisms
Waters, Hamann, Department of Pharmacognosy @ University of Mississippi, Hill, and
Place, Institute of Marine and Environmental Technology @ University of Maryland, 2010
(Amanda, Mark, Russell and Allen, The expanding role of marine microbes in pharmaceutical
development, Current Opinion in Biotechnology, December)
Marine natural products are a continued focus for drug discovery and have provided many
important therapeutic agents [1]. Lead compounds with biomedical potential have been
isolated from marine invertebrates, bacteria and fungi. Each year numerous compounds with
an array of biological activities are reported [2], but to-date only 13 molecules have entered
into the clinical pipeline. Four molecules have been approved for clinical use, one of which is
approved only in the EU. The approved molecules include two nucleosides based on spongederived nucleosides, a cone snail peptide, and a metabolite isolated from a tunicate [3].
Marine microbes have received growing attention as the sources for bioactive metabolites and
have great potential to increase the number of marine natural products in clinical trials.
The sustainable and economic supply of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) is
often easier to achieve for compounds produced through microbial fermentation
approaches vs the cultivation of slower growing macroorganism. Bacterial derived marine
natural products have been the subject of two recent reviews, one dealing with symbiotic bacteria
and one on marine microbes as drug leads in general [4,5]. In this volume, marine actinomycetes
(Jensen), cyanobacteria (Gerwick), symbionts of ascidians (Schmidt and Donia) and bryozoans
(Trindade-Silva et al.) are discussed separately.

Ocean Drugs Best / AT: Terrestrial CP

Oceans are key to new discoveries
National Academies 9 (The National Academiesthe National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering,
Institute of Medicine, and the National Research Councilprovide a public service by working outside the framework of government to
ensure independent advice on matters of science, technology, and medicine. They enlist committees of the nations top scientists,
engineers, and other experts all of whom volunteer their time to study specific concerns. The results of these deliberations are
authoritative, peer-reviewed reports that have inspired some of the nations most significant efforts to improve the health, education, and
welfare of the population. August, 2009, ocean Exploration, http://oceanleadership.org/wpcontent/uploads/2009/08/Ocean_Exploration.pdf)

At least 20,000 new biochemical substances from marine

plants and animals have been identified during the past 30 years, many with unique
properties useful in fighting disease. Biodiscovery researchers have had success in all
types of ocean environments . A 1991 expedition by the Scripps Institution of Oceanographys Paul Jensen and
Ocean explOratiOn and Human HealtH

William Fenical resulted in the discovery of a new marine bacterium, Salinispora tropica, found in the shallow waters off
the Bahamas. This bacterium produces compounds that are being developed as anticancer
agents and antibiotics. It is related to the land-based Streptomyces genus, the source of more than half of our
current suite of antibiotics.3 Deep-water marine habitats constitute a relatively untapped resource for the discovery of
drugs. In early 2000, Shirley Pomponi and Amy Wright from Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution explored deep
waters a few miles off the shore of the Florida Keys. Using the robotic claws and high-powered vacuums of the Johnson
Sea-Link submersibles, the team gathered a host of deep-water organisms. They met success with the

discovery of a new genus of sponge, nicknamed the Rasta sponge, containing

anticancer compounds.4 The promise and problems of developing novel marine chemicals into
bioproducts, from pharmaceuticals to compounds used in agriculture , is examined in the National
Research Council report Marine Biotechnology in the Twenty-First Century. The report recommends
revitalizing the search for new products by making it a priority to explore unexamined
habitats for new marine organisms.

Plan solves ocean drugs are better than those in the squo
AAAS 9 (American Association for the Advancement of Scientists, February 13, 2009, Fighting the Rising
Tide of Antibiotic Resistance: Causes and Cures in the Sea)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)s investigations into

coral disease, red tides and other marine environmental issues have led to discoveries of
novel chemicals as a source for new pharmaceuticals. A class of these chemicals function
as antibiotics for microorganisms providing survival advantages and may be applied for
use in human health care. Our research has found several compounds such as euglenophycin, recently
isolated and characterized from Euglena sanguinea (a freshwater and estuarine microbe) which exhibits very
strong antibiotic, antifungal, and antiviral potential as well as some anti-cancer and angiogenesis
activities. Also, our research into coral disease has resulted in thousands of new bacterial
isolates producing highly selective antimicrobial compounds such as in the Gorgonian
coral Pseudopterogoria americana that yields highly selective small peptide antibiotics .
Many of these novel anti-biotics are advantageous, as they demonstrate no cytotoxic
responses to human cells and may minimize negative side effects associated with those
drugs in current usage. Observations from the sponge Agelas coniferas ability to protect itself against fouling and
disease led to the discovery of ageliferin isolates that demonstrate very strong anti-biofilm activity. The
Abstract:

compounds with this specific activity hold promise to increase the efficacy of current and out of use antibiotics with their
ability to inhibit and/or disperse the protective layer that infectious agents often produce to protect themselves. Such
compounds are also finding potential use in other areas of human health as well, including cystic fibrosis, chemo-therapy,
anti-fungal agents, and for use in medical stints and prosthetics. Marine natural products hold much

promise in combating both the trend of antibiotic resistance but also to discover new
antibiotics. The one-two punch of discovering new antibiotics as well as novel chemicals
that make older generation drugs more effective represents cutting edge science
addressing a critical need in human health care.

AT: Terrestrial CP
The CP is 300 to 400 times less effective
Bruckner, coral reef ecologist in the National Marine Fisheries Services Office of Protected
Resources, Spring 2002
(Andrew, Life-Saving Products from Coral Reefs, Issues in Science & Technology, posted
online 11-27-2013, http://issues.org/18-3/p_bruckner/)
Coral reefs are storehouses of genetic resources with vast medicinal potential, but they
must be properly managed.
During the past decade, marine biotechnology has been applied to the areas of public health
and human disease, seafood safety, development of new materials and processes, and marine
ecosystem restoration and remediation. Dozens of promising products from marine
organisms are being advanced, including a cancer therapy made from algae and a painkiller
taken from the venom in cone snails. The antiviral drugs Ara-A and AZT and the anticancer agent
Ara-C, developed from extracts of sponges found on a Caribbean reef, were among the earliest
modern medicines obtained from coral reefs. Other products, such as Dolostatin 10, isolated from
a sea hare found in the Indian Ocean, are under clinical trials for use in the treatment of breast
and liver cancers, tumors, and leukemia. Indeed, coral reefs represent an important and as
yet largely untapped source of natural products with enormous potential as
pharmaceuticals, nutritional supplements, enzymes, pesticides, cosmetics, and other novel
commercial products. The potential importance of coral reefs as a source of life-saving and
life-enhancing products, however, is still not well understood by the public or policymakers.
But it is a powerful reason for bolstering efforts to protect reefs from degradation and
overexploitation and for managing them in sustainable ways.
Between 40 and 50 percent of all drugs currently in use, including many of the anti-tumor and
anti-infective agents introduced during the 1980s and 1990s, have their origins in natural
products. Most of these were derived from terrestrial plants, animals, and
microorganisms, but marine biotechnology is rapidly expanding. After all, 80 percent of all life
forms on Earth are present only in the oceans. Unique medicinal properties of coral reef
organisms were recognized by Eastern cultures as early as the 14th century, and some
species continue to be in high demand for traditional medicines. In China, Japan, and Taiwan,
tonics and medicines derived from seahorse extracts are used to treat a wide range of ailments,
including sexual disorders, respiratory and circulatory problems, kidney and liver diseases, throat
infections, skin ailments, and pain. In recent decades, scientists using new methods and
techniques have intensified the search for valuable chemical compounds and genetic
material found in wild marine organisms for the development of new commercial products.
Until recently, however, the technology needed to reach remote and deepwater reefs and
to commercially develop marine biotechnology products from organisms occurring in these
environments was largely inadequate.
The prospect of finding a new drug in the sea, especially among coral reef species, may be
300 to 400 times more likely than isolating one from a terrestrial ecosystem. Although
terrestrial organisms exhibit great species diversity, marine organisms have greater
phylogenetic diversity, including several phyla and thousands of species found nowhere
else. Coral reefs are home to sessile plants and fungi similar to those found on land, but
coral reefs also contain a diverse assemblage of invertebrates such as corals, tunicates,
molluscs, bryozoans, sponges, and echinoderms that are absent from terrestrial
ecosystems. These animals spend most of their time firmly attached to the reef and cannot
escape environmental perturbations, predators, or other stressors. Many engage in a form of
chemical warfare, using bioactive compounds to deter predation, fight disease, and

prevent overgrowth by fouling and competing organisms. In some animals, toxins are also used
to catch their prey. These compounds may be synthesized by the organism or by the
endosymbiotic microorganisms that inhabit its tissues, or they are sequestered from food that
they eat. Because of their unique structures or properties, these compounds may yield lifesaving medicines or other important industrial and agricultural products.

Exploration Works
Deep-Sea exploration is viable and key to drug research
Neill 13 - Director of the World Ocean Observatory, a web-based place of exchange for
information and educational services about the ocean (Peter, 7/12/13, "Ocean Bio-Prospecting,"
www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-neill/law-of-the-sea-ocean-bioprospecting_b_3575098.html, ADL)
But it is the pharmaceutical exploration that should also be of great concern. Again, there are
structures in place -- the Convention on Biological Diversity foremost among them. But this exploration is less physical in
a way, and much more complicated, with the knowledge and value available from ocean
resources located everywhere -- in the length of the water column, coral reefs, deep ocean
vents, and the sea floor. The issues are many: access, research costs, transaction costs, intellectual property and patent
issues, regulatory structure, benefit-sharing, fairness and equity issues, and the right to traditional knowledge sustained by indigenous

All the major pharmaceutical companies and research institutions are already fully
engaged in the drug development and profit implications of these resources , make no mistake
about it. At a conference on bioscience and the ocean , sponsored in 2012 by the New York Academy
of Sciences, the extent of this research potential was apparent, with presentations on the
synthesis of DNA from ocean species such as sponges and mollusks, imitating certain biological functions
that could be applied to disease in humans. A significant number of new drugs in preliminary
testing for cancer treatment are derived this way from the information decoded from marine
plants and animals. A very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision clarified one of the larger questions for such research: by
peoples.

protecting knowledge derived from the discovery of such natural processes from the exclusivity of patent protection, while nonetheless
permitting "ownership" of processes invented or synthesized from them for manufacture and application as vaccines or medicines beneficial
to human health. It is a profound distinction, and a major step toward protection of such ocean resources over time. It is interesting to note,
however, that this U.S. judicial decision notwithstanding, the United States Congress has not approved either the UN Convention on
Biological Diversity or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, even though both are now international law, having been ratified by the
requisite number of nations.

Fee-Based System
Easy to collect federal revenue from bioprospecting
U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy 04 (2004, "An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century:
Final Report,"
govinfo.library.unt.edu/oceancommission/documents/full_color_rpt/000_ocean_full_report.pdf,
ADL)
Various parts of this report discuss federal revenues that are, or may be, generated from offshore
activities. Chapter 6 introduces the concept of resource rents, the economic value derived from
the use or development of a natural resource. It recommends that the use of a publicly-owned
resource by the private sector be contingent on providing a reasonable return of some
portion of the revenues to taxpayers. For example, the proposal in Chapter 22 for a new marine aquaculture
management framework includes a recommendation for a revenue collection process that recognizes the
public interest in the ocean areas and resources used for aquaculture operations in federal waters.
Chapter 23 recommends a similar process for bioprospecting

U.S. Key

Notes
Use the 1AC cards!

U.S. Key Best Biomedicine

U.S. research productivity outpaces everyone else
DeVol, chief research officer at the Milken Institute, Bedroussian, research economist at the
Millken Institute, and Yeo, senior research analyst at the Millken Institute, Sept 2011
(Ross, Armen, and Benjamin, The Global Biomedical Industry: Preserving U.S. Leadership,
http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/CASMIFullReport.pdf)
Because of the legal and regulatory framework discussed above and the subsequent
formation of a superior ecosystem of biomedical innovation, US. firms were able to reinvest
more of their profits back into R&Dand their European counterparts began to shift more
of their R&D operations to the US. The research productivity of the United States tops all
other nations as measured by the ratio of world-first patents filed for marketed new
molecular entities relative to R&D spending by biopharmaceutical firms. Additionally, the
US. captured 68.3 percent of total venture capital investment in the life sciences among
OECD nations in 2007.

U.S. Key Federal Waters

Federal government key - environmental leadership, permits, and
licensing
U.S. Commission on Ocean Policy 04 (2004, "An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century:
Final Report,"
govinfo.library.unt.edu/oceancommission/documents/full_color_rpt/000_ocean_full_report.pdf,
ADL)
Based on the potentially large health benefits to society, the federal government should encourage and support the search for new
bioproducts from marine organisms, known as bioprospecting. However, before wide-scale bioprospecting proceeds in
federal waters, requirements need to be established to minimize environmental impacts. Planning and oversight will
help ensure that public resources are not exploited solely for private gain and will help
protect resources for future generations. Individual states regulate the collection of marine organisms quite
differently, sometimes requiring an array of research permits to collect organisms and licenses to gain access to particular areas.
Regulations that ban the removal of specific organisms, such as corals and other sensitive species, often exist in both state and federal
protected areas. In protected federal waters, such as national marine sanctuaries, research permits are required for all collections.
However, bioprospecting outside state waters and federal protected areas is unrestricted, except for certain species subject to regulation
under existing legislation, such as the Endangered Species Act. Both U.S. and foreign researchers, academic and commercial, are free to
collect a wide range of living marine organisms without purchasing a permit and without sharing any profits from resulting products. On

National Park Service has successfully asserted the governments right to enter into benefit
with substances harvested for commercial purposes in Yellowstone
National Park. The National Park Service is in the process of conducting a full environmental impact
statement on the use of such agreements for benefit sharing in other parks. This practice could serve as a model for the
management of bioprospecting in U.S. waters. Similar to other offshore activities,
bioprospecting in federal waters will require appropriate permitting and licensing
regulations to protect public resources while encouraging future research. Furthermore, when
land, the

sharing agreements in connection

allocating use of federal ocean areas for bioprospecting, it is important that consideration be given to other potential uses of those areas,
including oil and gas exploration, renewable energy, and aquaculture. A proposal for better coordinated governance of offshore uses is
discussed in detail in Chapter 6.

Federal government key for permits

U.S. Comission on Ocean Policy 04 (2004, "An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century:
Final Report,"
govinfo.library.unt.edu/oceancommission/documents/full_color_rpt/000_ocean_full_report.pdf,
ADL)
The National Ocean Council should ensure that each current and emerging activity in federal waters is
administered by a lead federal agency and make recommendations for Congressional action where needed.
The lead agency should coordinate with other applicable authorities and should ensure full consideration of the public
interest. Establishing a Coordinated Offshore Management Regime There are two main categories of ocean uses: those
that are confined to a specific location, typically linked to an offshore structure such as an oil rig, a wind turbine, an
aquaculture pen, or a sunken vessel, and those, such as fishing or recreation, that are more diffuse, taking place within
broad, flexible areas. Some activities combine these characteristics and could be managed
according to either scenario. As an example, bioprospecting could be treated as a site-specific

use by granting exclusive rights to explore for organisms in a particular area, or as a

moveable activity by granting permits to collect certain organisms regardless of their
location. To move toward an ecosystem-based management approach, the federal
government needs to develop a better understanding of offshore areas and resources,
prioritize uses, and ensure that activities in a given area are compatible.

NIH Key Expertise

NIH expertise is key
National Research Council, the policy wing of the U.S. National Academies, scientific
national academy of the United States, 1999
(Commission on Geosciences, Environment and Resources, National Research Council, Division
on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, From Monsoons to Microbes: Understanding
the Ocean's Role in Human Health, pg. 81)
The Discovery and Development of Marine Pharmaceuticals: Needs for the 21st Century
- Marine organisms as a source of pharmaceuticals
The successes to date in the discovery of novel chemicals from marine organisms that
have demonstrated potential as new treatments for cancer, infectious diseases, and
inflammation, suggest that there needs to be a greater focus on the development of drugs
from marine sources. Exploration of unique habitats, such as deep sea environments, and the
isolation and culture of marine microorganisms offer two underexplored opportunities for
discovery of novel chemicals with therapeutic potential. The successes to date based on a
very limited investigation of both deep sea organisms and marine microorganisms suggests
a high potential for continued discovery of new drugs. Marine microorganisms are
particularly attractive because they fit in with the traditional pharmaceutical model of a
natural product drug source. Moreover, supply of bulk amounts of a microbially derived
drug can be addressed by large-scale fermentation of bioactive marine microorganisms.
- Expand marine drug discovery beyond cancer to include other diseases
Programs such as the Natural Products National Cancer Drug Discovery Groups (NPNCDDGs) at
the National Cancer Institute have been tremendously successful in interfacing non-tradilional
drug sources, such as marine organisms, with the screening and development potential of major
pharmaceutical companies. Similarly, the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grants
have fostered interactions on a smaller scale. Other institutes within the NIH should consider
developing programs for marine-based drug discovery for diseases that desperately need
new therapies, such as neurodegenerative, cardiovascular, and infectious diseases.
In particular, there needs to be a more organized approach to the development of antibiotics
from marine sources. The increasingly limited effectiveness of currently available drugs
has dire consequences for public health, although the consequences have not yet been
felt by the public or the medical community. The United States is faced with the serious threat
of re-emerging infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, indicating that a radical and
aggressive approach needs to be taken to control these multiple-drug-resistant pathogens.

NIH Key FDA Approval

NIH research has the highest impact and receives priority FDA review
Chatterjee and Rohrbaugh, Office of Technology Transfer, US National Institutes of
Health, 1/9/2014
(Sabarni and Mark, NIH inventions translate into drugs and biologics with high public health
impact, Nature Biotechnology, issue 32, p. 52-58)
The contribution of inventions from public-sector research institutions (PSRIs) to the
development of drug and biologic products has long been recognized1, 2, 3. Until now,
however, no study has carried out an in-depth comparison of the specific contributions of the US
National Institutes of Health (NIH) Intramural Research Program (IRP) and other US PSRIs to the
development of drugs and biologics approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). In
the following article, we analyze the number of products resulting from inventions from these
sources (Fig. 1), assess their public health impact, categorize the type of licenses made and the
licensee organizations that made them and estimate the funding invested that resulted in drug
and biologic products. We show that NIH-IRP inventions have had a disproportionately
greater impact in three respects: first, the overall number of products, particularly vaccines,
cancer therapeutics and in vivo diagnostics; second, the number of drugs granted orphan
status; and third, the number of drugs developed under New Drug Applications (NDAs)
granted priority review by the FDA because they offer major advances in treatment. Gross
annual commercial sales of these products serve as a limited but direct measure of their
economic impact, which for the drugs and biologics that utilize NIH-IRP inventions is double the
government's total annual investment in the NIH-IRP.

FDA incentivizes cooperation between scientists which facilitates

coordination and data sharing. NIH is key to solve
Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Critical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
The novel aspects of these C-Path projects are the core neutral funding and the scientifically
qualified team leaders of the consortia. C-Path brings together scientists from highly competitive
companies and then maintains a productive environment through modern project management techniques.
Continued participation by the consortium members depends on the rewards they receive for the
investment of time and effort. These rewards are expected to be science-based regulatory standards
enabled by the work of the consortium, which define a development process that has the greatest possible efficiency
and safety. The future of the Critical Path Initiative is increasingly secure because the many stakeholders in medical product development have come to recognize the value of and need for
process improvement. They also recognize the importance of having a safe haven such at MITs Center for
Biomedical Innovation or a neutral third party such as C-Path where members of the pharmaceutical industry and the

FDA can work as scientists and not be inhibited by their usual roles as regulators and regulated .
Likewise, industry scientists are finding it very rewarding to share with their competitors their knowledge
and experiences, especially their failures, in precompetitive areas of development. Therefore, it is likely that the work
of the critical path will continue indefinitely. What is not yet clear is where it will take place and how it will be coordinated.
The NIH is increasingly involved in critical path projects . The NCI collaborates with the FDA through the
Oncology Biomarker Qualification Initiative (OBQI). The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute has been working with
the FDA to coordinate studies of the genetic testing of warfaring. However, tremendous potential remains for the

NIH to play an important role in providing FDA with the data and scientific information needed to
improve medical product development. Examples include the NIH roadmap initiatives, the facilities of the
National Center for Research Resources, and the growing network of Clinical Translational Research Awards. These
are almost all devoted to translational science and have the potential to interface directly with
some of the 76 projects on the 2006 Critical Path Opportunities List.

FDA Approval Good

Pharmaceutical innovation has been stagnant the last 30 years FDA
action is critical to reinvigorating R&D
Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Critical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
The failure of this surge to materialize has prompted extensive speculation on the cause of this pipeline problem. Many

in the drug development community believe that genomics and other newer technologies are not
yet sufficiently mature to reliably support drug development. Others blame industry business decisions or
regulatory requirements. In 2004, the FDA published a White Paper entitled Innovation or Stagnation: Challenges and
Opportunities on the Critical Path to Medical Product Development (7). While acknowledging that a
combination of factors has likely led to the current drug development situation, this paper called
attention to an important and Drug development can be conceptualized as a process leading from basic research through
a series of developmental steps to a commercial product (Figure 2). The FDA White Paper identified the

Critical Path as a process beginning with identification of a drug candidate and culminating in
marketing approval. Along the path to marketing, the product is subjected to a series of evaluations to
predict its safety and effectiveness and to enable its mass production. Despite extensive investment in
basic biomedical science over the past three decades, there has been very little change in the science of the
development process. The sophisticated scientific tools used in drug discovery and lead optimization are generally
not utilized in the preclinical and clinical development stages. Instead, traditional empirical evaluation is used in both
animal and human testing. We are using the tools of the last century to evaluate this centurys advances. How did this
situation come about? The FDAs analysis, which has been generally accepted, is that no one is

charged with improving developmental science. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) focus on
innovative biomedical science, not the applied science of the development process; as a result,
academia also concentrates on basic science. The pharmaceutical industry is concerned with developing innovative
products. The FDA, as a regulator, is not charged with nor is it funded forimproving the
process, although it has been involved in such efforts. Additionally, the science needed is generally
integrative big science that requires contributions from multiple disciplines and sectors and is not within the purview of a
single investigator or firm.

FDA is the only way to facilitate effective biomarkers which are

essential to drug development
Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Crtical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
Interindividual drug target heterogeneity due to genetic polymorphisms may be important in diseases other than cancer.
Using biomarkers to classify patients by disease type or response probability can improve drug
development by reducing variability and increasing the size of the treatment effect . If the biomarkers
are then incorporated into clinical practice, clinical variability can also be reduced. Decreasing
interindividual differences in drug exposure is another strategy to reduce response variability. Recently, FDA has
approved a number of assays for genetic polymorphisms in drug-metabolizing enzymes. Many

marketed drugs are subject to polymorphic metabolism, leading to a wide range of exposures in
the treated population (13). The safety and effectiveness of these drugs, as well as investigational drugs with
variable metabolism, could be improved by using dose adjustments directed by genetic tests. The absence
of practical processes to establish the clinical significance of a given biomarker has severely
limited the use of existing biomarkers in drug development and the clinic. The return on investment for diagnostic
test manufacturers is seldom sufficient to enable extensive clinical trials, and investigational drugs are rarely developed in
concert with new diagnostic tests. To address these issues, FDA and other stakeholders have

established the concept of biomarker qualification, which means determining the clinical
significance of the biomarker in a specific context (14). For example, a genetic test might be qualified to

quantity of data needed for qualification

depends on the intended use, and most uses require far less data than would be required to
establish a surrogate endpoint for efficacy.
identify a subset of disease for the purpose of trial enrollment. The

Biomarkers are super important for disease prevention

Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Critical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
Development of new biomarkers was identified as the highest priority for scientific effort . Genomic,
proteomic, and metabolomic technologies, as well as advanced imaging techniques, hold tremendous promise for
generating new biomarkers that can reflect the state of health or disease at the molecular level (11). Although much prior
discussion about the use of biomarkers in drug development has focused on surrogate endpoints for effectiveness, most
uses of new biomarkers are not expected to involve surrogacy. For example, prediction of adequate safety is an essential
part of drug development. Currently, preclinical safety testing involves traditional animal toxicology studies, as well as in
vitro assays such as the Ames test. Animal toxicology tests are very useful for assessing safety for initial human testing;
however, they often fail to uncover the types of toxicities seen after widespread human exposure. New technologies, such
as gene expression assays in whole cell or animal systems, proteomics, or metabolomics, may provide much greater
insight into the whole spectrum of pharmacologic effects of a candidate drug. Such technologies may also be useful in
comparing the candidates effects (particularly off-target effects) to those of other drugs in its class or other drugs intended
for similar uses (12). Drug developers are just beginning to use such technologies in the preclinical safety workup, and the
clinical implications of such findings have not been worked out. The current scheme for clinical safety testing has also
failed to incorporate recent scientific advances. Human safety during drug development is primarily evaluated on an
observational basis from subjects exposed in the various developmental trials. The markers used to assess
potential human toxicity are also assays that have been available for decade s, e.g., clinical chemistries
and hemograms. Few explanatory studies are carried out to determine the mechanism of an observed side effect, and
assays to predict rare side effects are not available. Despite premarket exposure of thousands of subjects, serious side
effects are frequently uncovered after marketing. New types of biomarkers may provide opportunities for
prevention or early detection of these adverse events. The current problems with predicting and evaluating
drug efficacy could also be ameliorated by using biomarkers. Many drug efficacy problems stem from the
extreme variability of human disease response. New biomarkers can improve diagnosis, define
disease subsets that may differ in response, define individual variability in the drugs molecular target, and
provide an early readout of response to therapy (11). For example, both in vitro diagnostics and imaging
techniques are expected to provide additional information about disease subsets. This is already beginning to happen in
cancer, where gene expression assays are being used to supplement histologic and clinical assessments of tumors, e.g.,
evaluating the likelihood of recurrence and the need for adjuvant therapy. For disorders such as psychiatric conditions that
are currently diagnosed by clinical symptoms, it is hoped that genetic or imaging markers may help to distinguish
biologically based subsets. A related type of biomarker is one used to predict treatment
responsiveness. Many new cancer therapies target a specific molecule or cellular pathway. Genetic, proteomic, or
other molecular assays that assess target status within a tumor may be used to predict responsiveness to a targeted drug.
This is the strategy used with the drugs trastuzumab (Herceptin) and imatinib (Gleevec).

FDA is key to data analysis thats critical to develop disease models

Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Critical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
One of the greatest scientific flaws in the current process of medical product development is its
failure to produce generalized knowledge despite a huge investment in data generation . For
example, FDA holds the worlds largest collection of animal test data and correlated human trial data, but most of this
information is unusable in its current form, except to document a specific development program. As a result, opportunities
for major improvement are missed. Under the Critical Path Initiative, stakeholders are beginning to take
advantage of these opportunities. For example, FDA and various partners have created a standard for a
digital electrocardiogram (ECG) recording, and FDA requested that ECG data submitted to it be in this format. At
the same time, a data warehouse to hold the ECG data was established. Since that time, > 500,000 digital ECGs have
been added to the warehouse, and a collaboration with Duke University has been established for overall
data analysis (17). This resource may help scientists efficiently evaluate candidate drugs for adverse
cardiac repolarization effects, a concern that is currently addressed (somewhat less than satisfactorily) by extensive

clinical testing. As data

standards for regulatory submissions are implemented, processes and

protocols to utilize the data for research purposes without compromising proprietary interests need to be
developed. One important use of such data will be to construct quantitative models of disease
processes, incorporating what is known about biomarkers, clinical outcomes, and the effects of various interventions.
These models can then be used for trial simulations, to better design appropriate trials and
clinical outcome measures (18). Although the FDA has constructed several disease models, this work is in its early
stages and will require extensive partnerships. However, there is little doubt that such quantitative
approaches constitute the future of product development and assessment .

FDAs Critical Path Initiative key to new innovative safe medicine

Woodcock and Woosley 8 (Janet, Raymond, The FDA Crtical Path Initiative and its Influence
on New Drug, http://www.annualreviews.org.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi/pdf/10.1146/
annurev.med.59.09 0506.155819)
In 2004, the US Food mid Drug Administration (FDA)

launched the Critical Path Initiative, a project that is

intended to improve the drug and medical device development processes , the quality of evidence
generated during development, and the outcomes of clinical use of these products. Why would a regulatory agency be
involved in such a modernization effort? FDA's mission is to protect and promote the health of the public.

With respect to drugs, biological products, and medical devices, this translates into ensuring
reasonable product safety while also facilitating the translation of scientific innovations into
commercial products. The ongoing tension between process are the best way to resolve these
conflicts to the satisfaction of most parties and to the benefit of the public. Although the initiative concerns all
regulated medical products, this review discusses Critical Path in the context of drug development.

FDA Chief Innovation Officer key to effective solvency

Dutton 11 (Gail, Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News, Volume 31, No. 18, Can the FDA
be a Catalyst for Innovation?, http://online.liebertpub.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi
/pdf/10.1089/gen.31.18.05)
BIO is working with the FDA to reduce the risks of timidity by triaging new technologies by their
potential contributions to science and healthcare (such as their ability to reduce false positives and false negatives), and
providing the information necessary to help reviewers make informed decisions when they
encounter these technologies. For the future, Greenwood suggested creating the position of chief innovation
officer. This is different from the chief science officer already in place, Emmett said. The chief science officer is tasked
with enhancing the internal science infrastructure, he explained. A chief innovation officer, in contrast, would work
with external consortia and public/private/academic partnerships to coordinate and integrate their advances
into the FDA as pilot programs. For example, as new clinical trial designs or new biomarkers or new ways to
develop or use electronic medical records are developed, the chief innovation officer would work with their

developers to see that they are validated and tested in the FDAs centers, to increase the FDAs
comfort level with these innovations. Despite the significant challenges the FDA is facing, Dr. Rodell said there
also are significant opportunities to design an efficient, 21st century agency. Many of the recommended changes require
legislation, Emmett admitted, but we want to elevate the FDAs role to focus on innovation. BIO
advocates reinvigorating the Regan Udall Foundation as a place for public/ private partnerships. That foundation was
created by the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 to support the FDAs regulatory science priorities,
which aim to clarify issues at the intersection of science and regulation. BIO also supports a progressive
approval pathway so that even before final trials are completed, promising therapeutics could be
released and monitored. Dr. Rodell suggested that could be accomplished safely and effectively by designing
electronic medical records systems to accommodate retrospective, anonymous analysis of drug safety in real time.
Therefore, drug developers could track adverse events associated with the commercial release of
particular therapies more accurately than under the current system, which depends upon harried physicians
taking the time to voluntarily report adverse events. Dr. Rodell added that the FDA is exploring this already with its pilot
Sentinel initiative. That approach can also be used to generate comparative effectiveness data. As
Hrusovsky elaborated, Databases have 10 years of retrospective samples, in which you know the

therapies, outcomes, expression levels, etc. Leveraging that data could yield practice guidelines
that address specific details rather than broad generalities, as well as reimbursement guidelines.

FDA is forming new programs that will create high level coordination
and leadership over pharmaceuticals
Dutton 11 (Gail, Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News, Volume 31, No. 18, Can the FDA
be a Catalyst for Innovation?, http://online.liebertpub.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/doi
/pdf/10.1089/gen.31.18.05)
Following the April release of its Strategic Priorities 20112015 document, the

FDA has released several

proposals to streamline drug testing, nanotechnology, and low-risk diagnostics, as well as draft
companion diagnostics guidance, in an attempt to increase regulatory uncertainty and the speed
and accuracy of reviews. But, as Dr. Hamburg recently wrote to colleagues, The most obvious change is that the
Agencys programs will be divided into directorates that reflect the core functions and responsibilities of the Agency. Her

goal is to better support core functions and to link programs that share common regulatory and
scientific foundations. The seven existing centers, she emphasized, will remain under their current leadership. To
enhance consistency, the position of Deputy Commissioner for Medical Products and Tobacco is being established
to oversee the Special Medical programs and to provide high-level coordination and leadership
across the seven centers. The FDA is also establishing the Directorate of Global Regulatory Operations and Policy, to
move the FDA from an organization regulating domestic products to one overseeing a worldwide enterprise. The Office
of the Chief Scientist will continue its efforts to improve FDAs science and address issues of cross-cutting
scientific concern. The National Center for Toxicological Research will report to this office. The FDA is also
forming the Office of Foods to implement the Food Safety Modernization Act, and the Office of Operations to
oversee administrative functions, including information technology and finance . This implementation
shares some commonalities with the improvements proposed by BIO CEO Jim Greenwood in his keynote speech at this
years BIO International convention in Washington, D.C. There, he advocated establishing the FDA as an independent
agency, updating its mission statement to create a clear mandate to encourage the development of innovative products.

U.S. Patents can solve for developing countries- increasing

investment and education structures
Morel et al 5 (Carlos, Tara Acharya, Denis Broun, Ajit Dangi, Christopher Elias, N.K. Ganguly,
American Association for the Advancement of Science, Health innovation networks to help
developing countries address neglected diseases,
http://go.galegroup.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/p
/i.do?&id=GALE|A134675149&v=2.1&u=northwestern&it=r&p=AONE&sw=w)
Improving

the health of the poorest people in the developing world depends on the development
and deployment of many varieties of health innovations , including new drugs, vaccines, devices, and
diagnostics, as well as new techniques in process engineering and manufacturing, management approaches, software,
and policies in health systems and services. In developed countries, philanthropic and government donors
have created and invested more than $1 billion in global product development partnerships (PDPs)
to develop and help to ensure access to new drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics for diseases of the poor (1). These PDPs
have made major progress in a relatively short time period (2) but continue to face many challenges. All
developing countries can undertake health innovation to varying degrees. Some developing countries, however, are more
scientifically advanced than others and are starting to reap benefits from decades of investments in education, health
research infrastructure, and manufacturing capacity. We refer to these as innovative developing countries (IDCs) (3, 4). It
is a challenge to get complete data on health research spending. According to the most recent available data, public
spending on health research by developing countries totaled at least $2 billion (5). This number does not include China,
for which data were not available. That investment, which has already led to important innovations, is
projected to continue to grow (3, 5-7). Furthermore, lower labor and other costs have the potential to
magnify the impact of this investment. To put it in a different perspective, just 1/10th of these IDC public health
research resources amounts to more than all that was spent in 2004 by the above-mentioned PDPs engaged in the
development of drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics for diseases of the poor (8, 9). Patents and well-cited
publications indicate the productivity of research investments, and in this light, IDCs have made major
progress. The number of U.S. patents per capita is a common proxy used to measure the relative
innovation efficiency of countries, but we believe that this computation underestimates the innovative capacity of
developing countries, because it fails to detect the productivity of highly capable centers of excellence within countries
with large populations. Adjusting for both relative economic status and population (U.S. patents per gross domestic
product per capita) (10), the top 25 most productive countries in the world include India, China, Brazil, South Africa,
Thailand, Argentina, Malaysia, Mexico, and Indonesia (10). For Brazil, China, India, and South Africa, the

number of highly cited academic papers rose nearly twofold from 1993-1997 to 1997-2001 (11), whereas
the number of U.S. patents has increased 10-fold (12).

U.S. Key EEZ

The US has the largest and most unique EEZ
AOC no date - America's Ocean Challenge ("AMERICA'S EEZ - $ VALUE,"
www.americasoceanchallenge.com/pages/eez.html, ADL)
Americas EEZ is an area of nearly 4.5 million square miles 23% larger than the land area
of the US - stretching from the Arctic ocean to the tropics composed of at least 11 different ecosystems . The
ecosystems are relatively large regions on the order of 200,000 sq. km. or greater,
characterized by distinct: (1) bathymetry , (2) hydrography, (3) productivity, and (4) trophically
dependent populations. US EEZ encompass the eleven following Large Marine
Ecosystems: 1. East Bering Sea off eastern Alaska 2. Gulf of Alaska off the south of Alaska 3. California
Current off the west coast 4. Gulf of Mexico off the south cost 5. SE U.S. Continental Shelf off the NE US 6.
Northeast U. S. Continental Shelf Off the SE US 7. Insular Pacific Hawaiian Around Hawaiian Islands 8.
Caribbean Sea - Caribbean 9. Chukchi Sea North of the Bering Strait 10. Beaufort Sea Off northern Alaska 11.
Unnamed Central Pacific Marine ecosystem Including the Line Islands. An ecosystem is defined as a system formed by
the interaction of a community of organisms with their environment. All life on Earth resides within ecosystems. Ecosystems are bounded
by physical conditions that interact with the life that is adapted to them. If the spiraling degradation of coastal and marine ecosystems
globally is to be reversed so that these ecosystems continue to provide both livelihood benefits to coastal communities and foreign
exchange to governments, a more ecosystem-based management approach needs to be implemented. It is concluded that the
fragmentation and competition characteristic of coastal ocean activities should be overcome and stakeholders enlisted as a force for reform
in the economic sectors creating the stress on marine ecosystems. Currently, following the World Summit on Sustainable Development
(2002) a global effort

is underway by the World Conservation Union (IUCN), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic

Commission of UNESCO (IOC), other United Nations agencies, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA)

to improve the long-term sustainability of resources and environments of the world's Large Marine
Ecosystems (LMES) and linked watersheds. Large Marine Ecosystems are regions of ocean space encompassing coastal areas from
river basins and estuaries to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and the outer margins of the major current systems. They are
relatively large regions on the order of 200,000 km2 or greater, characterized by distinct: (1) bathymetry, (2) hydrography, (3) productivity,
and (4) trophically dependent populations. Americas Ocean Challenge seeks to educate the general public and provide the understanding
and support for new policies and actions. It is our hope to eliminate the causes of transboundary environmental and resource-use practices
that are leading to serious degradation of coastal environments, linked watersheds, and losses in biodiversity and food security from
overexploiting of marine ecosystems. Implicit in the conclusions of the two recent ocean commission reports, the Pews Ocean Commission
(POC), 2003, and the United States Commission on Ocean Policy (USCOP), 2004, is the requirement to manage the health of marine
ecosystems. As the Pews Ocean Commission puts it Marine scientists need to develop an understanding of what good health means for
each major ecosystem in U.S. ocean waters, and then policymakers and those who use ocean resources need to practice preventative
medicine. The USCOP reflects the same conclusion with the statement, The Commission recommends moving toward an ecosystembased management approach by focusing on three cross-cutting themes: (1) a new, coordinated national ocean policy framework to
improve decision making; (2) cutting edge ocean data and science translated into high-quality information for managers; and (3) lifelong
ocean-related education to create well-informed citizens with a strong stewardship ethic. These themes are woven throughout the report,
appearing again and again in chapters dealing with a wide variety of ocean challenges. These are the goals of America's Ocean
Challenge. It is clear that for these changes to occur the stakeholders have to be engaged in addressing these issues. The primary
stakeholder of Americas EEZ in the US is the public at large. Research by agencies such as The Ocean Project, The American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Frameworks and others, have concluded that the understanding of these is issues by the general
public is low. Americas Ocean Challenge is the program designed to address the chasm of understanding between the general public and
the profound knowledge that science has provided in the recent past decades. AOCs Core Program ContentEEZ Ecosystems: AOCs

Scientific Advisory Group has endorsed the presentation of Americas Exclusive

Economic Zone (EEZ) marine ecosystems as the umbrella strategy with which to educate the public about
the value and vulnerability of our marine resources. The U.S. EEZ was proclaimed by President Reagan on March 10,
1983 using the legal precepts of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (which has yet to be ratified by the USA). AOC Program will use
examples of marine organisms that exemplify the structure and function of marine ecosystems. The program will encompass all 11 large
marine ecosystems over the course of its development but rarely all in a single component. For example, the large format film will exemplify
just five contrasting marine ecosystems within the EEZ and illustrate how specific species interact and function as part of the whole. The
public will learn that these ecosystems are not isolated ecological units but, rather, part of a single living and connected ocean whose
health is tied inextricably to the health and survival of all of life on Earth, including humans. AOC components will convey scientific content
about the faunas biological functions and ecological relationships; upon what they feed or prey; who preys upon them and how, where and
when reproduction occurs; the fate of spawn, larvae and recruits; the trials and perils of the species lives and the interrelationships
between species, as well as the environment and other organisms that make up the ecosystem. The AOC program includes an integrated
suite of inspirational/immersion components such as large format films and associated educational materials. Treatments will feature
scientists whose research is related to ecosystem stories and will articulate reasons why we should be engaged in conserving our
ecosystems. The scientists work and on-camera interviews will show how the knowledgebase of science lays the foundation for
rehabilitation of damaged marine ecosystems and their pathway to restoration of functionality. The AOC program intent is to inspire
audiences and society to care not only about the fate of all marine life, but also the functionality and integrity of the ecosystems in which
they live. Specific EEZ Regions Identified for AOC Coverage: The AOC Program has selected the following five EEZ Marine Ecosystems
for the first large format film with which to educate the American public about the wonder and diversity of our marine heritage: Eastern
Bering Sea Ecosystem: The

Eastern Bering Sea ecosystem is characterized by its Sub-Arctic

climate and is bounded by the Bering strait on the north, by the Alaskan Peninsula and Aleutian island chain on the south, and by the

Alaskan coast on the east. It has a wide shelf and a seasonal ice cover that reaches its maximum extent of 80% coverage in March. Our
program will examine the ecosystem function of a region near Unimak Pass just north of the Aleutian archipelago, where several

California Current Ecosystem: This ecosystem is characterized

by a temperate climate that is a transition ecosystem between subtropical and sub arctic
water masses with an upwelling coastal phenomenon. The California Current Ecosystem is separated from the
ecosystem pillar species gather in June and July.

Gulf of Alaska by the Sub arctic Current, which flows eastward from the western Rim of the Pacific Ocean. The AOC program will examine
the relationship of

a suite of species within this ecosystem, featuring the sea otter, whose influence controls the dynamics of the
Northeast US Continental Shelf Large
Marine Ecosystem is characterized by its temperate climate. It extends from the Gulf of Maine to Cape
nearshore environment. Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem: The

Hatteras along the Atlantic Ocean. Scientists are examining the changing ecosystem states and the relative health of four major sub areas:
the Gulf of Maine, Georges Bank, Southern New England and the estuarine-dominated waters of the Mid-Atlantic Bight. Historically this
ecosystem has been one of the most productive of the Northern Hemisphere. Today, for numerous anthropogenic reasons it is
considerably less economically productive. The AOC program will present this ecosystem through the lens of one of its rarest inhabitants,
the North Atlantic Right Whale. This

species and its viability is used metaphorically for the health and
sustainability of the entire ecosystem. Southeast U.S. Continental Shelf Ecosystem: This southeast
continental shelf ecosystem is characterized by its temperate climate . It borders the Atlantic Ocean,
extending from the Straits of Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It contains many bays and sounds, and
extensive coastal marshes that provide unique habitats for living marine resources . This
ecosystem is presented in the large format film using the goliath grouper, one of the large charismatic megafauna of the region to illustrate
ecosystem structure and function.

Bioprospecting in the EEZ of the US falls under federal jurisdiction

Leroux and Mbengue no date - Dr. Nicolas Leroux of the Lalive Attorneys-at-law, Geneva
and Dr. Makane Moise Mbengue of the University of Geneva Law School ("DEEP-SEA MARINE
BIOPROSPECTING UNDER UNCLOS AND THE CBD,"
www.gmat.unsw.edu.au/ablos/ABLOS10Folder/S3P1-P.pdf, ADL)
3.1 Marine bioprospecting in the EEZ Article 56(1) of UNCLOS provides that States have sovereign rights [in their
EEZ] for the purpose of exploring and exploiting, conserving and managing the natural
resources, whether living or non-living, of the waters superjacent to the seabed and of the seabed and its subsoil. Marine
genetic material extracted from living organisms clearly fall under the category of natural resources as
defined by Article 56(1). Coastal States therefore have sovereign rights to undertake, authorize, and/or
supervise the exploration and commercial exploitation of marine genetic resources in their
EEZs.[19] This includes the crucial right to impose taxes and/or royalties on benefits accrued as a result of commercialization of marine
biotech products.[20] The freedom of coastal States to explore marine genetic resources in their EEZ is not unfettered. Article 192 of
UNCLOS imposes upon States a general obligation to protect and preserve the environment, which covers marine genetic resources

when engaging or permitting private and public entities to

conduct marine bioprospecting, States have a duty to ensure that those activities will not damage
falling under their territorial jurisdiction.[21] Therefore,

the environment. In practice, Article 192 arguably compels States to implement an effective environmental preservation framework
applicable to marine bioprospecting activities conducted within their EEZ. This general obligation to protect and preserve the
environment is supplemented by a specific obligation to prevent, reduce, and control pollution arising out of marine bioprospecting cruises
conducted in the EEZ.[22] Articles 194 to 196 of UNCLOS cover all sorts of pollution, including light and noise pollution which are of
particular concern in the total darkness and nearly absolute silence of the abyss.[23] Pollution may also result the introduction of invasive
alien species by the machines used for exploring and sampling deep-sea habitats.[24] Environmental duties under UNCLOS are
complemented and indeed refined by various obligations arising out of the CBD.[25] Under Article 7 of the CBD, States must identify and
monitor marine genetic resources in their areas of national jurisdiction, with a particular emphasis on any resource requiring conservation
measures.[26] Although the CBD does not define areas of national jurisdiction, it can be safely argued that such identification and
monitoring obligations apply in the EEZ. In addition, Article 7(c) of the CBD forces States to; Identify processes and categories of activities
which have or are likely to have significant adverse impacts on the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity, and monitor
their effects through sampling and other techniques. Marine bioprospecting plainly qualifies as an activity that may have significant
adverse impacts on the conservation and sustainable use of marine genetic resources seen by the CBD as part of biological diversity.[27]
Under the CBD, States are, therefore, under an obligation to monitor the environmental effects of marine bioprospecting cruises conducted
under their control, including in their EEZ.[28] Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the CBD calls for the implementation of access and
benefit-sharing (ABS) mechanisms by State Parties.[29] ABS is beyond the scope of this paper, but it is worth noting that marine genetic
resources will likely be covered by the Protocol to the CBD which State Parties may adopt in late October 2010 in Nagoya.[30] 3.2 Marine

bioprospecting on the continental shelf Article 77(1) of UNCLOS provides that coastal States exercise
sovereign rights for the purpose of exploring [] and exploiting [the] natural resources of
their continental shelf. Article 77(4) states that such natural resources include living organisms belonging to sedentary species.
The definition of sedentary species under Article 77(4) has been the subject of academic and diplomatic debate. It is clear, however, that
marine bioprospecting associated with sedentary species, including certain fish and octopus species, falls under the purview of Article

States have the right to undertake, or authorize and supervise, marine

bioprospecting activities over the genetic resources of sedentary living organisms on their
continental shelf.
77.[31] In other words, coastal

Misc. Answers To

AT: Environment DA
Plan doesnt disrupt ecosystems and biosynthesis means we only
need to collect specimens once
Imhoff 11 (Johannes, Antje Labes, Jutta Wiese, Biotechnology Advances, Volume 29, Issue 5,
Marine Biotechnology in Europe, http://www.sciencedirect.com.turing.library.northwestern
.edu/science/article/pii/S0734975011000346)
In contrast to the macroorganisms that are directly taken from the habitat (sometimes in large amounts),

microorganisms are not even seen in the environmental sample but need enrichment and
cultivation techniques to make them available for laboratory approaches. Therefore, only tiny amounts of the
original sample (such as a piece of sponge, coral, sediment or other) are needed. Environmental damage by
harvest from the habitat is avoided. Fig. 4 illustrates the path of isolation of microbes from the marine habitat in
order to gain bioactive compounds for further drug development. Once bacteria and fungi have been brought into pure
culture, straightforward procedures are available to cultivate them in larger volumes , to chemically analyze
the natural products and identify the compounds, as well as to optimize the production by strain selection
and elaboration of the optimal physico-chemical conditions for production. This includes design and
development of the fermenta- tion process and selection of strains from a larger panel of similar strains
that produce the desired compound as well as strain improvement by random or directed genetic manipulatioa Though
these methods need to be adapted to each bacterium and each process separately, straightforward ways to do so are
available. Additional improvement of the biosynthetic abilities of the producing strains is possible by
combinatorial biosynthesis, which has emerged as an attractive tool in natural product discovery and development.
Genetic engineering may be used to modify biosynthetic pathways of natural products in order to produce new and altered
structures (Floss, 2006). This is of great advantage for the establishment of reproducible processes for

the synthesis of desired natural products.

Removing specimens is minimally invasive

Hunt and Vincent 6 - Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (Bob Hunt and Amanda C.J.
Vincent, Scale and Sustainability of Marine Bioprospecting for Pharmaceuticals,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/4315687, ADL)
Conservation concerns about the exploitation of marine organisms in bioprospecting include i) nonselective or destructive collection methods (43), ii) possible introduction of pathogens or exotic species by collectors (43), and, most
often, iii) possible overcollection of target organisms (23-25). With respect to the first concern, nonselective and destructive collection methods, such as trawls, benthic sleds, and grabs, are usually only deployed in
conditions where more careful methods, such as hand collecting on scuba, are not possible. With
indiscriminate gear, sample sizes per species or parts taken cannot easily be controlled, nor can secondary collections
easily exclude or avoid nontarget species. However, these methods can be regulated with the use of
mandatory collection protocols (see below) and environmental impact assessments (EIA). With respect to the

second concern about exotic species or pathogens, an inquiry into bioprospecting in

Australia (43) found that the risk of introduction was minimal and the same as from the
existing use of these habitats. Again, collection protocols could be established to
minimize the introduction risk. The third concern, for overexploitation, appears to be
unlikely with most contemporary primary collections on populations or species. Primary
collection programs generally remove small amounts (0.5-1 kg) and operate haphazardly, maximizing the taxonomic
diversity of the collection within a limited time frame (30, 39). Although advances in screening technology has allowed the
collection of species previously ignored (because of their smaller size, lower abundance, or lower tissue mass), we would
anticipate that most viable populations should tolerate a removal of <1 kg of specimens

Bioprospecting wont hurt the environment

Hunt and Vincent 6 - Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (Bob Hunt and Amanda C.J.
Vincent, Scale and Sustainability of Marine Bioprospecting for Pharmaceuticals,
http://www.jstor.org/stable/4315687, ADL)
INDUSTRY SELF-REGULATION Possible risks of ecological impact from bioprospecting may be
minimized with a combination of self-regulation by industry and research-associated
groups, and active management by the "owners" of biodiversity. Industry self-regulation for
environmental best practice involves i) development of collection protocols or guidelines, ii) timely and precautionary
assessments of economic and ecological viability, and iii) development of alternative supply strategies. As well, funding

for research can carry environmental stipulations, and journals that publish associated
research can demand authors adhere to an environmental code of conduct (55, 56)
COLLECTIONP ROTOCOLS Codes of conduct for the use of wild organisms can help ensure that
collection is sustainable (25). The US National Science Foundation and the NCI, which fund
considerable biomedical research and collecting, require that research permits be obtained for all
projects they fund in tropical countries (57). Similarly, the members of the American Society of Pharmacognosy
made a resolution to "abide by all source country regulations governing the collection of materials" and to require brokers
or other intermediariest o do the same (58, p. 655). The sustainability of this approach is, however, entirely dependent on
source countries having adequate legislation combined with the managerial capacity and political will to enforce it.
Collection agreements between prospectors and source countries currently focus on economic and
intellectual property aspects of access, but could also outline environmental responsibility (59). In general,

researchers and bioprospectors appear to be aware of environmental considerations

associated with collecting (23, 24). As noted above, most investigators initially collect 0.5-1 kg of
each species, a level that probably leads to diverse collections without damaging
biological diversity (39). Some groups, such as AIMS, have developed their own collection guidelines and
protocols (43). Nonetheless, only half of the collectors surveyed at Costa Rica's Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad
(INBio) knew about species that should not be collected, and none had specific training on ecologically sustainable
collecting methods (60).

AT: Violates UNCLOS

Marine Bioprospecting isnt bound by LOST countries have the right
to free sea
Leroux 10 (Nicolas, Makane Mbengue, Deep- Sea Marine Bioprospecting Under UNCLOS and
the CBD, https://www.iho.int/mtg_docs/com_wg/ABLOS/ABLOS_Conf6/S3P1-P.pdf)
The freedom to conduct marine bioprospecting in the high seas more likely stems from the general principle set out at
the first paragraph of Article 87(1). The list of freedoms at Article 87(l)(a-f) is not exhaustive, as apparent from the words 'inter
alia' in Article 87(1). Freedom of the high seas covers other uses of the seas unforeseen at the time of
drafting, including marine bioprospecting.'-36-' That freedom extends to genetic resources both in the
water column beyond the limits of EEZs. and on the seabed beyond the outer edge of the continental shelf, since living
resources are not covered by the exploration and exploitation regime applicable to the Area's
mineral resources codified at Part XI of the Convention.'-37-' Marine genetic resources in the high seas, therefore,
remain subject to a free-access regime. This does not mean that any private operator is free to explore, collect, and exploit such
resources: nor does it mean that UNCLOS fails to provide a legal regime for marine bioprospecting. Simply put, the free-access regime
means that each State, rather than the international community, may implement a legal regime for
marine bioprospecting in the high seas. Those national regimes will then apply to their nationals, whether individuals or corporate
entities, and to activities conducted by vessels flying their flags.

AT: Free Market

Private sector wont do it its a social good
Frisvold, professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Arizona, and
Day-Rubenstein, economist at the USDA Economic Research Service, Summer 2009
(George and Kelly, Bioprospecting and Biodiversity Conservation: What Happens When
Discoveries are Made?, 50 Ariz. L. Rev. 545, Lexis)
While natural products have been important sources of pharmaceutical materials and
information, historically the pharmaceutical industry has hesitated to engage in much
collecting and testing of genetic materials. This reluctance may stem from public-good
aspects of information about the value of genetic materials. n11 A firm collecting and
screening biological samples would have difficulty excluding others from the information
that a sample showed promising medical activity. This would be particularly true as a
compound's origins, mechanism of action, and efficacy were revealed through required
disclosures during the drug-development application process and through clinical trials. Although
the knowledge of a compound's medical activity may be valuable, firms [*548] have an
incentive to free-ride off the search and discovery activities of others. Thus, expected
private economic gains to bioprospecting by individual companies are considerably less
than social gains.

AT: India CP
India lack of licensing kills tech transfer and global adoption of drugs
Feinberg and Majumdar 1 (Susan E, Sunlit K, Journal of International Business Studies,
Technology Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry,
http://web.a.ebscohost.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/ehost/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=facad
10c-ab9f-406c-b604-3a6fe6ce9529%40sessionmgr4004&vid=2&hid=4204)
However, developing country technology polices have often favored the objective of national selfdetermination at the expense of foreign technology transfer. In particular, host country policies of weak
intellectual property protection and forced licensing of technology, although intended to facilitate
technology spillovers, are more likely to discourage FDI and the transfer of leading-edge technologies
by MNCs (Lee and Mans- field, 1996). Moreover, policies that encourage foreign technology transfer, such
as greater recognition of intellectual property rights , can also conflict with the objective of equitable
distribution. In sectors such as biotech and pharmaceuticals, the allocation of intellectual property rights

may have severe implications for the availability of low-cost drugs in poor countries.

Expanding Indian drug development sets a global model,

undermining intellectual property and innovation ensures no new
drugs
Pipes, president of the Pacific Research Institute, 9/16/2013
(Sally, India's War On Intellectual Property Rights May Bring With It A Body Count,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2013/09/16/indias-war-on-intellectual-property-rights-maybring-with-it-a-body-count/)
Earlier this year, the heads of more than a dozen of Americas industry associations from the
National Association of Manufacturing to the Semiconductor Industry Association to several
leading pharmaceutical associations wrote to President Obama pleading for action
against Indias attacks on industries that rely heavily on intellectual property.
Given that Indias economy now tops $4.7 trillion and that it trades close to $1 trillion in goods and
services each year, this is hardly an idle concern for these U.S. industries, which employ about
40 million Americans and make up more than 60 percent of merchandise exports.
And if nothing is done to discourage India from abusing intellectual property rights, other
developing countries may follow suit, under the assumption that doing so will help them
secure cheap copycat drugs for their citizens and simultaneously develop their own
domestic drug industries.
If Indias way becomes the global norm, there may soon be no more innovative drugs with
patents to infringe upon. And thats bad news for patients the world over.

AT: IPR Bad / Generics Good

No link to patents the plan produces public scientific knowledge not
products (perm solves)
Neill 13 - Director of the World Ocean Observatory, a web-based place of exchange for
information and educational services about the ocean (Peter, 7/12/13, "Ocean Bio-Prospecting,"
www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-neill/law-of-the-sea-ocean-bioprospecting_b_3575098.html, ADL)
At a conference on bioscience and the ocean, sponsored in 2012 by the New York Academy of Sciences, the extent of this research
potential was apparent, with presentations on the synthesis of DNA from ocean species such as sponges and mollusks, imitating certain
biological functions that could be applied to disease in humans. A significant number of new drugs in preliminary testing for cancer
treatment are derived this way from the information decoded from marine plants and animals. A very recent U.S. Supreme Court decision
clarified one of the larger questions for such research: by protecting knowledge derived from the discovery of such natural processes from
the exclusivity of patent protection, while nonetheless permitting "ownership" of processes invented or synthesized from them for
manufacture and application as vaccines or medicines beneficial to human health. It is a profound distinction, and a major step toward
protection of such ocean resources over time. It is interesting to note, however, that this U.S. judicial decision notwithstanding, the United
States Congress has not approved either the UN Convention on Biological Diversity or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, even

A very recent U.S. Supreme

Court decision clarified one of the larger questions for such research: by protecting knowledge
derived from the discovery of such natural processes from the exclusivity of patent
protection, while nonetheless permitting "ownership" of processes invented or
synthesized from them for manufacture and application as vaccines or medicines
beneficial to human health. It is a profound distinction, and a major step toward protection
of such ocean resources over time. It is interesting to note, however, that this U.S. judicial decision notwithstanding, the
though both are now international law, having been ratified by the requisite number of nations.

United States Congress has not approved either the UN Convention on Biological Diversity or the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea,
even though both are now international law, having been ratified by the requisite number of nations.

IPR Good: Allows for financial recovery for the inventor and creates
disclosure for society to build on the invention
Harrelson 1 (John, TRIPS, Pharmaceutical Patents, and the HIV/AIDS Crisis: Finding the
Proper Balance between Intellectual Property Rights and Compassion,
http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/wlsj7&div=12&id=&page=)
To understand the controversy surrounding compulsory licensing of patents, one must first understand why patents are
granted. Two rationales have been used to justify the grant of a patent The first rationale is based
on a natural rights theory."3 This theory holds that a person is entided to some property rights from one's own
intellectual creations.1" This rationale allows inventors and investors to financially recover their
development costs."5 A second rationale is based on the benefit to society."6 This theory holds that the
inventor will disclose the details of his invention to society and, in return, will be granted a limited monopoly
to exploit his invention."7 As a result of the disclosure, society can build on the invention and the overall
knowledge will increase."1 In addition, by granting patents, people will be forced to invent around the
patent and expand the state of art by necessity."9 The Western concept of intellectual property does not meet
the societal norms of many countries.'20 In some countries, intellectual property is viewed as Western
individualism.12' Many countries view liberty and self-autonomy as less important.'22 The key unit is not the individual,
or even the family, but rather the larger societal group.123 Therefore, ownership of an intangible right by an individual is
foreign to their societal traditions.'24 Opponents of TRIPS in developing countries also put forth economic arguments
against intellectual property protection. They argue that by allowing foreigners to control technology
through patents, an economic hardship will result from foreigners controlling the terms, and even whether,
a technology can be practiced in a particular country.126 The control of technology is particularly important in medicine,
agriculture, and education.'27 While these arguments are sound from a short term perspective, failing

to protect intellectual property with financial incentives will, in the long ran, decrease the number
of new products that benefit society. * In arguing against tying intellectual property to trade, some commentators
have argued that the developed nations are hypocritical.'28 In particular, critics point to the fact that many Western
nations have only recently allowed patent protection for pharmaceuticals.'25 For example, Germany (1968), Japan (1976),
Switzerland (1977), Italy (1978), and Spain (1992) only implemented protection after their own domestic producers
increased in size.'*0 Another frequentiy mentioned example of Western hypocrisy is that the United States was slow to
adopt the Berne Convention and harmonize its copyright laws with international standards.'3' The United States' main
motivating factor in conforming was not a desire to protect foreign works in the United States but rather the United States

had become the leading exporter of copyrighted material.'32 Most developing countries, despite their reservations about
TRIPS, decided that the benefits outweighed the risks.'33 International trade and participation in the WTO was key to this
growth.'34

IPR promotes increased investment in new product development

while alternatives lack motive and dont solve anything
Harrelson 1 (John, TRIPS, Pharmaceutical Patents, and the HIV/AIDS Crisis: Finding the
Proper Balance between Intellectual Property Rights and Compassion,
http://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/wlsj7&div=12&id=&page=)
Patent protection plays an important role in promoting economic growth by offering incentives for
investment in the development of new products. One of the requirements of the Agreement on Trade-Related
Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS)1 is that all member nations grant patents for pharmaceutical drug inventions.2
Recently, the issue of affordability of HTV/ AIDS medications3 has caused debate on the proper strength of
pharmaceutical patent protection. Much of the conflict between those who support strong patent rights and those who
oppose them has focused on the use of compulsory licensing and parallel imports as means to of lowering HIV/AIDS
pharmaceutical prices in poorer countries. Even liberal compulsory licensing and parallel imports, however,
may not sufficiently lower the cost of these pharmaceuticals to make them affordable in the
poorest countries.4 Intellectual property and trade were formally linked on a global basis as a result of the TRIPS
Agreement which was conducted under the umbrella of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATQ.5 The World
Trade Organization (WTO), which succeeded the GAIT, oversees the TRIPS and dispute settlement between member
states.6 The linkage between intellectual property and trade has not been without controversy.7 Protection of intellectual
property, including pharmaceutical patents, is not part of the culture of many countries.8 Despite this lack of tradition, on
April 15,1994,117 nations signed the TRIPS Agreement9 that allows intellectual property rights to be enforced by trade
sanctions. Many developing countries that had reservations about strengthening intellectual property
rights signed the TRIPS because international trade was of major importance to their economic growth. 10
Participation in the World Trade Organization was essential to realize that growth." Before TRIPS, the
patent laws of many developing countries allowed the government to routinely require a patent holder to license his
invention to a local producer.12 This compulsory licensing was used in some developing countries to provide
pharmaceutical products to their population at lower prices." Other countries denied patent protection for
pharmaceuticals.14 TRIPS requires countries to grant pharmaceutical patents but does allow compulsory licensing of
patents under limited circumstances." The United States, home to many of the research-based pharmaceutical
companies, has tried to influence countries to adopt patent laws that exceed the minimum provisions of TRIPS and totally
exclude compulsory licensing.'6 The pharmaceutical treatment needs of HIV infected and AIDS diagnosed persons
provides an emotional battleground for the issue of compulsory licensing. Eighty-nine percent of the world's HIV infected
population lives in the poorest ten percent of countries.17 In some nations, local genetic manufacturing would decrease
the price and make drugs more affordable to the population.'8 In other countries, a lack of sufficient manufacturing
resources prevents compulsory licensing from being a viable solution to the high cost of pharmaceuticals.19 While new
drugs have lowered the impact of HIV infection in the Western world, the $10,000 or more annual cost of these
pharmaceuticals is not affordable for the average HIV-infected person in a developing country.2'1 Much recent attention
has been on the development of an HIV vaccine to combat the spread of HTV in Africa as well as worldwide.21 Such a
vaccine is years away.22 Even if a vaccine is developed, sixteen African countries already have an HTV infection rate of
ten percent or more of their adult population.23 The pharmaceutical treatment of HIV-infected individuals will last well
beyond the development of a successful vaccine. Section two of the article reviews the patent provisions of the TRIPS
agreement and the current controversy over strong pharmaceutical patent rights. Section three analyzes the positions of
those supporting and opposing compulsory licensing and the viability of alternatives. This article concludes with a
recommendation that the United States should not pressure countries to adopt patent laws that prohibit
compulsory licensing. Rather, the United States should work to assure that countries provide adequate
compensation to patent owners for compulsory licensing as required by TRIPS. This approach can
decrease drug costs to HIV infected people in some countries while adequately compensating pharmaceutical companies.
Under this policy, countries like Thailand, which has a large HIV crisis but also possesses the infrastructure to
manufacture HIV drugs, should be allowed to produce the needed drugs while paying the reasonable licensing fee
required by TRIPS. Compulsory licensing, however, will not adequately help the poorest developing countries, such as
those in sub- Saharan Africa, afford needed HTV medications. A workable plan, promoted by the International

Intellectual Property Institute (HPI), combines tiered pricing, national patent exhaustion, and
pharmaceutical subsidies to provide a balance of the seemingly conflicting interests. The IIPI plan
provides developing nations with the drugs they need to lessen human suffering while providing
pharmaceutical companies with increased revenues and incentives to invest in new treatments.

Absent IPR companies has no incentive to innovate kills industry

effectiveness
Scherer 2k (F.M., Taking Stock: The Law and Economics of Intellectual Property Rights: The
Pharmaceutical Industry and World Intellectual Property Standards,
http://www.lexisnexis.com.turing.library.northwestern.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?verb=sr&csi=7362&sr=AUT
HOR(Scherer)%2BAND%2BTITLE(TAKING+STOCK%3A+THE+LAW+AND+ECONOMICS+OF+INTELLEC
TUAL+PROPERTY+RIGHTS%3A+The+Pharmaceutical+Industry+and+World+Intellectual+Property+Standa
rds)%2BAND%2BDATE%2BIS%2B2000)
The benefits of modern pharmaceutical therapy have accrued mainly to the citizens of the world's more prosperous
nations. United Nations staff have estimated that average purchases per capita of modern pharmaceutical products
(excluding traditional [*2246] medicines) in 1990 (calculated at prevailing exchange rates) in diverse parts of the world
were as follows: n2 [SEE TABLE IN ORIGINAL] A rough extrapolation of these figures reveals that the 73 percent of the
world's 1990 population located in south and east Asia, including China, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America,
consumes only 16.2 percent of modern pharmaceutical output by dollar volume. One consequence of the
inadequate purchasing power that limits such nations' ability to consume pharmaceuticals is a
higher rate of morbidity and debility, which in turn impairs the growth of income so that pharmaceuticals can
be afforded--a vicious cycle. Nearly all of the research-oriented pharmaceutical companies responsible for
innovations in drug therapy have their home bases in the United States, the European Community nations, or Japan,
where demand is most intense and highly able scientists interacting with first-rate universities are at hand. Excepting
those of Japan, the research-oriented pharmaceutical companies are among the most multinationally oriented enterprises
in the world. Discovering a new drug and carrying it through the tests required to obtain marketing approval from
regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe costs upwards of $ 100 million per successful new chemical entity.
Once such a large investment has been made, there are powerful incentives to obtain requisite regulatory
approvals in other nations and sell the product as widely as possible . Foreign markets are served both
by exporting, often from a tax haven such as Puerto Rico, Ireland, or Singapore, and through direct plant investment in
consuming nations. According to United Nations estimates, pharmaceutical imports averaged 8.2 percent of domestic
consumption during 1989 in developed nations and 19.8 [*2247] percent in less-developed nations. n3 In 1980,
approximately 27 percent of the world's demand was satisfied through local production by foreign-owned companies. n4
Since then, the extent of multi-national operation has increased, in part due to numerous cross-border mergers. In 1995,
members of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America trade association recorded prescription drug
sales of $ 65 billion within the United States and $ 37 billion outside the United States. n5 Most of the R&D outlays

incurred by pharmaceutical companies are made to discover therapeutically interesting molecules

and prove their efficacy and safety through extensive human trials--i.e., to create knowledge that approximates what
economists call a pure public good. Absent legal barriers to copying, once a drug has been found to be
safe and effective, another firm might come up with a generic equivalent by spending roughly a million
dollars on production process methods and formulation and begin to compete with the pioneering firm. If such generic
imitation were widespread and rapid, surplus revenues that repay pioneers' initial R&D outlays
and make them worthwhile would be severely eroded, undermining incentives to invest in
research and product testing. Because of the huge disparity between drug finding and imitation costs, multiindustry surveys show, pharmaceutical manufacturers attach unusually high importance to the patent
system, which in effect grants them 20 years of exclusive rights to their invention from the time a
patent application is filed, as a means of recouping their R&D expenditures. n6 The combination of multinationality and
heavy stress on patent protection set the stage for a conflict between the pharmaceutical manufacturers and the world's
developing nations. Under the Paris Convention to which most of the nations with patent systems adhered, nations were
free to structure their patent laws however they desired, as long as they did not discriminate between local and foreign
inventors. Many nations excluded drug products from patentability because they considered drugs (and for analogous
reasons, food products) to be of such great importance to the national welfare. Even Switzerland, home to three of the
world's leading pharmaceutical companies, abstained until 1977 from [*2248] granting drug product patents. Most lessdeveloped countries ("LDCs") followed that pattern and tended more generally to provide weaker patent protection than
the most industrialized nations--actions perfectly compatible with the Paris Convention.

Multiple Structural Barriers to Generics hinder their effectiveness

Kesselheim et al 6 (Aaron, Michael A. Fischer, Jerry Avorn, Health Affairs, Extensions of
Intellectual Property Rights and Delayed Adoption of Generic Drugs: Effects on Medicaid
Spending, http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/25/6/1637.full.pdf+html)
Despite some success in promoting the availability of
generic medications, three important factors can hinder the optimization of savings from generic drug
use. First, generic drugs are often delayed from reaching the U.S. marketplace after expiration of the
Delay and underuse of inexpensive generics.

patent or other IP protection. To extend monopoly protection of the underlying active ingredients in their drug products,

brand-name manufacturers sometimes engage in a process known as evergreening by patenting peripheral features of
products, including aspects of their formulation, their metabolites, or methods of administration. A 2002 report from the
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) detailed instances where brand-name manufacturers maintained market
exclusivity by listing improper or invalid patents with the FDA.9 Also, the U.S. government has authorized
further extensions in market exclusivity after the Hatch-Waxman Act. For example, in 1997 the FDA Modernization Act
(FDAMA) provided six more months of market exclusivity if a drug company studies its brand-name product in
pediatric populations.10Second, generic prices can remain elevated because the Hatch-Waxman Act
provides six months of exclusivity to the first generic product on the market . A market controlled by
such a duopoly does not provide the same cost savings as an open market with multiple generic manufacturers.11 Finally,

physicians can be slow to switch to generic versions of brandname pharmaceuticals, and payers
formularies often do not require such substitution.