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Management of critical failures with

probabilistic approach

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

PAS 55.
UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence & PAS - 55.
Strategic Management.
Tactic Management.
Maintenance Cost.
Critical Failures (Bad Actor).
Probabilistic Approach.
Models Development.
Benefits and Goals.
2

Organizational Strategic Goals

CAPEX optimization and


sustainability planning
Sustained Performance,
Cost and Risk
Optimization
Optimize Life
Cycle Activities

Corporate
Organization
Management
Manage Asset
Portfolio

Manage Assets System


Manage

Create /
acquire

Assets
Utilize

Maintain

Layered Integration
Life Cycle
Optimization
Sustained Value
Value Creation
Business Criticality
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic
Renew
/Dispose
e

Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Assessment
Important Interface:
Motivation, Communication, Roles
& Responsibilities, Knowledge,
Experience , Leadership, Teamwork

Important Interface:
Life Cycle Cost, Capital
Investments, Operating
Costs

Financial
Assets

Human
Assets
Physical
Assets

Intangible
Important Interface:
Reputation, Social
Responsibility, Constraints,
Social Impact

Assets

Info
Assets

Inclusive
Whole Cycle
Optimized
Risk - Based
Data - supported
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic

Important Interface:
Condition, Asset Health,
Performance, Activities,
Costs & Opportunities

Vital Context:
Business, Objectives,
Policies, Performance
requirements, Risk
Management
Important Interface:
Active participation of people,
Positive influencer,
Continuous Improvement, Do
How

Important Interface:
Knowledge, Understanding,
Lean Process, Performance
measurements & Know How

Process

Human

Reliability

Reliability
Asset
Reliability

Important Interface:
Maintenance Strategies,
Maintenance Optimized; Maximize
MTBF, MTTF, MTTR, UPTIME

Equipment
Reliability

Maintainability
Equipment's

Inclusive
Whole Cycle
Optimized
Risk - Based
Data - supported
Continuous
Improvement
Pragmatic

Important Interface:
Internal Reliability, Planning &
Scheduling Effectiveness, Tactic
Management, Background.

DRIVERS BUSINESS EFFECTIVENESS: ROCE, RONA, EBIT


PRODUCTION Operations
MAINTENANCE
ADMINISTRATION,
Business Systems, IT
ASSET OPTIMIZATION
HH RR.
Safety, Health, Environment, Risk Management and Control

Production
Effectiveness

FINANCE,
Capital Management

Availability
Reliability
Production Rate

Quality

Capital Effectiveness,
RONA

Production
Planning

Process Control

O&M Cost
Optimization

FRAME WORK
Information
Technology

Maintenance Management

Purchasing
Training
Management
Physical Asset Optimization

Spare Parts Management


Systems & Operating
Improvements
Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz

Value =

Quality x Service
Cost x Time x Risk
7

CAPEX
Risk
f(t)

Development
Costs

OPEX

Investment
Costs

Operating Costs

Building, Installation & Commissioning

CMC + IOP + EI
Cost of Low Reliability = Risk

Acquisition
Design

Disposal

Operating Costs + Planned


Maintenance
Research

Today

At Working (Years)

Cost

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS

Availability

STRATEGY - > 60 days

Utilization

Reliability

PLANNING - < 60 days

Application & Operation


Mine Planning
Mine Operations

CPH

EXECUTION

Preventive Maintenance
- PM

Preventive Maintenance
Quality PM

Programmed Component
Replacement - PCR

Programmed Component
Replacement - PCR

Backlogs Mgmt

Backlogs Mgmt

SFMEA
EM - Strategy

Daily Tactics

FMEA

Risk Assessment

Strategic Planning &


Budgeting

Reliability Engineering

Asset Health Mgmt

Breakdown

Component Life
Cycle Cost Mgmt

OEM Warranty Mgmt

Diagnostics

Lean Maintenance
Efficiency

Work-Order
Administration

Execution

Continuous
Improvement

Health Inspections
FACILITIES MGMT

Equipment Health
Functional Failures
Mgmt

COST ACCOUNTING

Downtime Top Ten

SHER Policies

Condition Monitoring
Prognostic Analysis

Data Capture

Facilities
Maintenance

Non
Destructing
Testing

Maintenance Efficiency

Facility Projects

CAPEX

OPEX

Work-Order Mgmt

Risk
Assessment

C-MORE, Canad
Financial
Health

9
9

9
9

Reliability & PdM Process


Reliability Engineering
Component Life Cycle
Cost Mgmt

SFMEA

Lean Maintenance
Efficiency
Continuous
Improvement

AHR

Equipment Health
Functional Failures
Mgmt

DTA

Condition Monitoring
Prognostic Analysis

Non
Destructing
Testing

The first job of your PdM Program:


Identifying how your equipment can fail
Selecting the right PdM strategies and
technologies to apply to the Physical Assets
Determining the amount of PdM coverage for
your Fleet, Equipment, System, Sub-system, etc.
Ranking the criticality of each item of equipment
Building databases for each PdM Tech
improvement
Determining PdM staffing levels

2. UPTIME Pyramid of Excellence.Tech

Asset

Choosing
Excellence

Management

Work
Management

Essentials

Process

People

Support
System
Management

Basic Care
Materials
Management

Performance
Management

Leadership

Strategy

People

The Uptime Pyramid of Excellence (Campbell &


Picknell).
11

3.-

Tactic Management (Cont.).People

R
Tech

Process

Coordinate with Operations (Business Focus).


Develop the maintenance strategy for the critical equipment or Bad Actor. Based
on RCM analysis & Tactic Management.
Define a "Interim Corrective Action"
Evaluate the feasibility according to the current strategy (spares, people,
planning window, downtime impact, risk).
Develop and execute the "Action Plan ASAP.
Align with the Core Business (Cost, Risk & Benefits).
Implement a continuous improvement process.
12

2.-

Inspection Decisions:
Optimizing CBM

Dispatch to Maintenance.
Truck HT110 please check TPS for
low power fault

Book Ref:
DISPATCH

Wireless
Download
Real Time VIMS
Event Monitoring

P F curve customized
mobile equipment (CBM)
Realto
Time

Diagnostics

13

5.- Maintenance Costs.Division of Maintenance Costs by Origin


17%
7%
5%

8%

Management
Construction
Non Preventable

32%

Operations

31%

Maintenance

Design & Engineering

" Sobre el 60% del Costo de Mantenimiento durante


el tiempo de Vida de un equipo, son causados por
Defectos evitables durante el Diseo, Adquisicin,
Instalacin, Operacin y Mantenimiento".
14

5.- Maintenance Costs (real context).-

Cost Opportunities to mobile equipment

15

6.- Critical Failures (Bad Actor).-

1. Hidden Failure.
2. Low Detection Level (Low sensitivity to change).
3. Randomly.
4. Catastrophic Consequences (Cost, Downtime, Productivity).

16

3.-

Strategic Management.-

Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

Component
Replacement
Decisions

Inspection
Decisions

Capital
Equipment
Replacement

Maintenance
Resource
Requirements

Decisions

Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)


C-MORE, Canada

17

3.-

Tactic Management (Cont.).-

Probability
&
Statistics

Stochastic
Processes (CBM
Optimization)

Economic Life.
Constant
Annual
Utilization.
Varying
Annual
Utilization.
Technological
Improvement.
Repair vs
Replace

Time
Value of
Money

Resource's Requirement

Inspection
frecuency.
Profit
Maximization
Availability
Maximization.
Inspection
Intervals.
FFIs.
Condition Based
Maintenance.
Blended Health,
Monitoring & Age
Replacement.

Capital Replacement

Best
Preventive:
DPD.
Replace
Only
Failure.
Constant
Interval.
Age - Based
Spare Parts
Provisioning
Repairable
Systems.

Inspection Decisions

Replacement Component

Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions Optimization

Worshops
Machines.
Right Sizing
Equipment.
Lease / Buy

Queing
Theory
Simulation

Maintenance Management System (CMMS, EAM, ERP)


C-MORE, Canada

18

6.- Optimizing Equipment Maintenance:


Fix it after it
Replacement Equipment.-

Breaks: Overtime
Heroes

Reactive

Preventive
(PM)

Maintain before
it Breaks

$
Pdm /
Condition
Based (CBM)

"Para alcanzar una mxima


efectividad y un costo ptimo las
Organizaciones deben esforzarse para
ir hacia el enfoque Proactivo
manejado por confiabilidad;
rpidamente como sea posible"

Identify and correct


specific problems,
before something Breaks

Proactive
(PROACT)

Eliminate problems,
eliminate source of
Breakage

Reliability
Driven

Identify and eliminate


causes of failure;
minimize the need for
Maintenance
19

7.- Reliability Modeling, Prediction, Lifetime Analysis Probability


Approach.PDF

h(t)

y(x)

uom

f(t)

y=f(x)

Key Variable.
Studying variation.
Continuous.
Measurable.
Accuracy.
Sensitivity on time.

MTTF

Reactive Focus
Proactive Focus
Cost
Risk
Benefits

20

6.- Reliability Analysis (PDF).Distribution Plot


Weibull, Shape=1.7, Scale=5648, Thresh=0
2010
Business Objective: 16,000

MTTF = 5,030
0.00014

Software Ref:

0.00012

Density

0.00010

= 1.7 (Wear out)

0.00008
0.00006
0.00004
63.2%

0.00002
0.00000

36.8%
= 5,647
X = Bearing Hours

Findings:
The MTTF to Con Rod Bearings Fail" is less than the Business
Objective (PCR).
High probability of failures.
PCR : Programed Component Replacement
21

6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (four major


components of reliability).Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110518
LSXY Estimates-Complete Data
P robability Density F unction

Failure Mode
Erosion Cavitation
Layer separation & Fatigue

Weibull

0.00010

P er cent

P DF

90

0.00005

0.00000
0

6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s

50

Bearings
Hours

10

1
100

24000

S urv iv al F unction

H azard F unction

100

0.00045

Rate

P er cent

1000
10000
Bear ings H our s

50

0.00030

0.00015
0

0.00000
0

6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s

24000

6000
12000 18000
Bear ings H our s

24000

Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale Corr F C
1.94045 9848.63 0.964 29 0
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0

236
1,557
2,879
4,200
5,521
6,842
8,164
9,485
10,806
12,127
13,449
14,770
16,091
17,412
18,734
20,055
21,376
22,697
24,019
25,340

Erosion
Cavitation (r%)

Software Ref:

99.9
97.2
91.2
82.5
72.2
61.0
49.9
39.4
30.1
22.3
16.0
11.1
7.4
4.8
3.0
1.8
1.1
0.6
0.3
0.1

Failure Modes:
Erosion Cavitation (wear out).
Layer Separation & Fatigue (randomly).
22

6.- Lineal Regression Statistical Model.-

23

6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Plot to Accum


Variable vs. Working Age.-

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in


mobile equipment
24

6.- Statistic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot to


eliminate Bad Actors.Scheduled to
16th May

Scheduled to
23th May

Matrix Plot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110511


2500 (Infant Age)

40

Scheduled to
24th May

7000 (Mid Life)


H T129

Scheduled to
16th May

H T136
H T109

Accumulated Lead

30

H T153

H T068
H T053

29 Caution

H T069
H T121

20

H T079
HH
T145
T117
H T104

10

H T058

H T118

H T154H T049
T125
HHT131
T062
H T141
H T076
H T134
H T077 H T045
H T073 H T103
H T138
H T107H T110
H T133
HHT112
T139
H T137
HHT052
T060
HH
HT116
T130
T106
H T101H T140
H T071
H T128
H T132 H T057
H T065
H T102H T044
H T059
H T135 H T127
HH
HT122
T067
T142
HHT108
T048
HH
T126
T063
H T072
H T120
H T123
HHT147
T105HHT064
T114
H T144
H T055
H T152
H T124
H T056
H T111
HHT054
T074
H
H
HT119
T115
H
T151
T113
H T061
WT047
H
HHT143
T150
T046
H T050
H T075
HHT148
T149
H
HT080
T066

1000 2000 3000

H T146

WT051

H T078

H T070

4000 5000 6000 7000 8000


Bearing Hours

This con rod bearings


was changed by Mid
Life & On condition

9000

After of
HT068
25

6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis by Crystal Ball to


Erosion Cavitation 7K@16K.-

Software Ref:

There are used for:


Uncertainly.
Time series prognostic.
Probabilistic Optimization
26

6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate the "Bad


Actors" according the Risk (Slope).-.Matrix Risk of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours
2879 (86.2%)

y = Accumulated Lead

40

6842 (53.5%)
= 0.004
= 0.005

= 0.007

30

R-sq = 71.7%

= 0.005

29 (Fail)

= 0.005

Software Ref:

= 0.006

20
10
0
0

2000

4000
6000
x = Bearing Hours

8000

10000

y = f(x); Accum Lead accord with Con Rod Bearings Hours (normal condition); not by exception.

27

6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted to


Two Life Cycle for Con Rod Bearings".-

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in


mobile equipment
28

6.- Risk Management: Slope Analysis Adjusted with the Real


Context.Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT069
Slope:0.006; R-sq= 96.1%

60

Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT055


30

Variable
Accum Lead HT069 * Con Rod Bearing HT069
Accum Lead HT069_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_1
Accum Lead HT069_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT069_2

25

50

Variable
Accum Lead HT055 * Con Rod Bearing HT055
Accum Lead HT055_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_1
Accum Lead HT055_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT055_2

20 Slope:0.003; R-sq= 98.6%

Y-Data

40 Slope: 0.005; R-sq= 97.3%

Y-Data

Slope:0.001; R-sq= 67.9%

30
20

15
10

10

Slope:0.004; R-sq= 95.6%

Slope:0.002; R-sq= 95.7%

0
0

2000

4000

6000 8000
X-Data

10000 12000

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

X-Data

Scatterplot of Accum Lead vs Con Rod Bearings Accum Hours HT144


Slope:0.003; R-sq= 99.1%

50

Y-Data

40

Slope:0.007; R-sq= 99.3%

30
20

Variable
Accum Lead HT144 * Con Rod Bearing HT144
Accum Lead HT144_1 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_1
Accum Lead HT144_2 * Con Rod Bearing HT144_2

1. Parameters:
1. R-sq > 65%.
2. Individuals Trends.
3. Risk of Failure

10
Slope:0.006; R-sq= 98.7%
0
0

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

X-Data

29

6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot to eliminate


Bad Actors.Has accumulated 5,683
hours, scheduled to Jun
26th

Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours_20110602

TBD (accident)

2500 (Infant Age)

7000 (Mid Life)


HT069

60

Accumulated Lead

50

Has accumulated 6,937


hours, scheduled to Jun
6th

HT144
HT054

40
HT068

30
20
10
0

HT121
WT051
HT117
HT079
HT145 HT104HT058
HT049
HT133 HT103 HT045 HT125
HT141
HT073HT077
HT131
HT107 HT110HT112
HT116
HT124
HT139
HT106
HT130
HT137
HT102
HT052
HT060
HT138
HT071
HT140
HT101
HT065
HT128
HT059
HT132 HT057
HT123HT105 HT127
HT108
HT122
HT067
HT048
HT126
HT063HT044
HT072
HT120
HT142
HT064
HT056
HT114
HT119
HT115
HT074
HT148
WT047
HT129
HT146
HT075
HT147
HT154
HT109
HT153
HT076

2000

HT061

29 (fail)

HT053
HT055

HT078

Has accumulated 9,241


hours scheduled to Jun
11th

HT070

4000
6000
8000
Con Rod Bearing Hours

R-sq= 75.1%
10000

12000

Scheduled
to Jun 03th
30

6.- Risk Management: Reliability


Analysis_20110623.Distribution Overview Plot for Bearings Hours_20110623
ML Estimates-Complete Data
P robability Density F unction

Failure Mode
Erosion Cavitation
Layer separation & Fatigue

Weibull

0.00012
90

P DF

P er cent

0.00008

0.00004

0.00000
0

5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s

50

10

1
100

20000

S urv iv al F unction

H azard F unction

100

0.0006

Rate

P er cent

Software Ref:

1000
10000
Bear ings H our s

50

0.0004
0.0002

0.0000
0

5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s

20000

5000
10000
15000
Bear ings H our s

20000

Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale AD* F C
2.22049 8790.94 0.943 44 0
1.61573 7396.52 0.859 45 0

31

0.00010

P er cent

P DF

90

0.00005

0.00000

Layer separation & Fatigue

50

10

6.- Risk Management: Survival and Hazard Function Analysis.-.0

1
100

10000
20000
Bear ings H our s

1000
10000
Bear ings H our s

S urv iv al F unction

H azard F unction

100

Rate

P er cent

0.0003

50

FM1:Erosion
Cavitation

0.0002
0.0001

0.0000
0

10000
20000
Bear ings H our s

Table of Statistics
Shape
Scale Corr F C
1.66230 9079.24 0.963 33 0
1.28012 7686.00 0.975 45 0

10000
20000
Bear ings H our s

h (; , ) =

Where,
= = Shape.
= = Scale.

FM2:Layer Separation
& Fatigue

.1
1.6
1.5
,

h ()

1.4
1.3
1.2

1.1

= shape

Statistical Model to variables by exception with low sensitivity to change in


mobile equipment
32

Detectable Deterioration

Potential Premature
Failure
Replacement

R (t)

Cost Curve
Functional
Failure

Desired Performance

Total Failure

F
Time

Warning Interval
(P F Net)

Unexpected
Breakdown

6.- Risk Management: Matrix Risk Plot adjusted only to Normal


Zone.Scatterplot of Accumulated Lead vs Bearing Hours (Monitoring State)
Updated 20110623
2500 (Infant Age)

30

29 (Caution Level)

Accumulated Lead

25

Fits
Linear
Quadratic

20
HT134

15
10
5
0

HT135
HT152
HT150
HT143
HT151
HT113
HT148
HT075
HT118
HT068
HT076
HT129
HT149
HT117
HT065
HT069
HT109
HT146
HT080
HT053 HT136

500

R-sq=74.6%
R-sq=70.6%

1000
1500
2000
x=Bearing Hours

2500

The behavior of this


equipment is
projecting to the
caution zone

34

6.- Risk Management: Reliability Analysis (PDF) improved.Distribution Plot: Layer Separation, Erosion Cavitation
Weibull, Thresh=0
Updated: 20110804
MTTF=7,593 MTTF=8,315
Mid Life:7,000

0.00012

Density

0.00010

=2.1

PCR:16,000

Shape Scale
2.1
8573
2.6
9356

=2.6

0.00008
0.00006
0.00004

63.2%

0.00002

63.2%

0.00000

=8,573

36.8%
=9,356
X = Hours

= Shape
= Characteristic
Life
MTTF.
Business Objective
ICA.

Findings:
The MTTF to "Erosion Cavitation" is making progress
toward the PCR.
The MTTF in addition is covering the Mid Life Strategy.
37

7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub


sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.PLS Loading Plot: Lead HT134
March to July 2011
0.4
Copper

0.3

Potassium

0.2

Component 2

Software Ref:

PQ

Tin

Sodium

0.1
Silicon

0.0
-0.1

Aluminum
Kin Visc

-0.2

Iron

Chrome
Sulfur
Nitration
Soot
Oxidation

-0.3
-0.4
-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1
0.2
Component 1

0.3

0.4

Iron
Copper
Silicon
Soot
Sodium
Oxidation

0.5

Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium & Cooper.
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)

38

7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub


sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.Best Subsets Regression: Lead versus Iron, PQ, ... HT103
Response is Lead

Vars
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14

R-Sq
79.9
79.3
84.5
83.4
86.9
86.1
89.2
88.6
91.8
91.3
93.6
92.3
94.4
94.0
94.9
94.6
95.2
95.2
96.2
95.8
96.4
96.3
96.6
96.6
96.8
96.7
96.8

R-Sq(adj)
79.1
78.4
83.1
81.9
85.1
84.2
87.2
86.4
89.7
89.1
91.6
89.8
92.2
91.6
92.5
92.0
92.6
92.5
93.6
93.0
93.6
93.4
93.5
93.5
93.3
93.2
92.8

Mallows
Cp
47.8
50.0
33.9
37.8
27.5
30.3
21.5
23.6
14.6
16.3
10.1
14.9
9.6
11.0
9.8
10.9
10.6
10.6
9.3
10.7
10.4
10.9
11.8
11.8
13.2
13.4
15.0

S
0.56865
0.57765
0.51021
0.52829
0.47961
0.49376
0.44527
0.45806
0.39854
0.41025
0.35964
0.39640
0.34809
0.35981
0.34114
0.35134
0.33918
0.33996
0.31408
0.32990
0.31420
0.32006
0.31707
0.31712
0.32197
0.32473
0.33339

C
C
h
o
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r
p
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o T p
o P m i e
n Q e n r

A
l
u
m
i
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u
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X X
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X
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X
X
X X
X X

S
o
d
i
u
m

S
o
o
t

S
u
l
f
u
r

X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

S
i
l
i
c
o
n

P
o
t
a
s
s
i
u
m

X
X
X
X
X
X
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X
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X
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X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X

O
x
i
d
a
t
i
o
n
X

N
i
t
r
a
t
i
o
n

K
i
n
V
i
s
c

X
X X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X X X
X X X
X
X
X X X

Oxidation Level.This represent the PM


service accuracy

R sq (adj).
Cp Mallows

Wear Variables.This represent main


predictors
39

7.- Statistic Domain: Regression Analysis: "Best Sub


sets" & "PLS" by exceptions.PLS Loading Plot: HT103
0.3

Kin Visc

0.2
Oxidation

Software Ref:

Component 2

0.1

Nitration

Chrome

0.0

Tin

-0.1
-0.2

PQ

Soot
Sulfur

Iron

Copper

-0.3
-0.4
-0.5

Sodium
Potassium

Aluminum

Iron
Copper
Silicon
Soot
Sodium
Oxidation
Kin Visc

Silicon

-0.6
0.0

0.1

0.2
Component 1

0.3

0.4

Findings:
The loading plot show us that the main predictors variables are:
Iron, Silicon, Soot, Sodium, Kin Visc & Oxidation
In another domain, we need to check the Oxidation level (service
accuracy)

40

7.- Deterministic Domain: Matrix Risk Plot &


Prognostic Determination.

Scatterplot of Accum Lead G vs Con Rod Bear, Accum Lead H vs Con Rod B
HT053, Bronze Bearings
2500 (Infant Age)

7000 (Mid Life)

30
25

23

Y-Data

20

19
16

15

24

24 25

25 25

26 26

20 20
20 20 20

Distribution ID Plot for Lead


Descriptive Statistics
N
6

5
2

4
4

5
5

7 8
6 7
6

R-sq = 98.4%

0
0

Variable
Accum Lead Generated * Con Rod Bearing Hours Simulated
Accum Lead HT053 * Con Rod Bearing HT053

17

13

10

29

R sq value.
Lineal Regression
Fail Profile

N*
0

Mean
1.66667

StDev
0.516398

Median
2

Minimum
1

Maximum
2

Skewness
-0.968246

Kurtosis
-1.875

Goodness of Fit Test

R-sq = 91.5%

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000


X-Data

Distribution
Normal
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma

AD
1.091
1.642
1.406
1.240

P
<0.005
0.015
<0.010
<0.005

Software Ref:

ML Estimates of Distribution Parameters

Random Data.
Wear Profile (Mid Life)
> 100 interactions

Distribution
Normal*
Exponential
Weibull
Gamma

Location
1.66667

Shape
4.60608
10.42504

Scale
0.51640
1.66667
1.83957
0.15987

Threshold

* Scale: Adjusted ML estimate

41

8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.8.1 Summary of all cost in the first year (only 2011)

Summary of Impact Cost:


Control the situation - One time assumed impact:

$1022,976.67

Implement the actions - Future impact:

Total Cost of Impact:

$584,193.58

$1607,170.25

Summary of Benefit Cost:


Clearly avoided catastrophic failure - HT130:

$530,610.30

Avoided possible catastrophic failure in progress (11 cases):

Total Cost of Benefits:

$3555,841.56

$4086,451.86

Difference between Benefit and Impact:

Total Cost to Avoid:

$2479,281.61
42

8. Total Impact due to B. Problems.8.2 Summary of all cost in the following years (2012 to up)

Summary of Impact Cost:


Implement the actions - Future impact:

Total Cos of Impact:

$584,193.58

$584,193.58

Summary of Benefit Cost:


Annual rate of engine catastrophic faulires avoided (8 cases): $2586,066.59

Total Cost of Benefits:

$2586,066.59

Difference between Benefit and Impact:

Total Cost to Avoid:

$2001,873.01
43

Adolfo Hitler Huaman Diaz


General Manager AMBE
adolfo.huaman@ambeconsultora.com

44