Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
18 November 2014
Last
17,647.8
2,041.3
4,671.0
6,672.0
%Chg
0.1%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.3%
%YTD
6.5%
10.4%
11.8%
-1.1%
EU STOXX600
JP Nikkei
HK Hang Seng
115.1
16,973.8
23,797.1
0.5%
-3.0%
-1.2%
2.6%
4.2%
2.1%
419.6
1,715.0
115.1
985.9
477.1
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.5%
-0.5%
-0.7%
2.7%
3.2%
2.6%
-1.7%
1.9%
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
MSCI
ACWI
WORLD
Europe
EM
AsiaPac ex Japan
SET Index
BoT Gov Prasarn said oil prices alone will not drive monetary
policy after switching inflation targets to headline from core.
Investment Ideas
n
Last
%Chg
%YTD
SET Index
1,569.1
-0.4%
20.8%
SET100 Index
2,313.0
-0.5%
19.7%
SET50 Index
1,046.3
-0.5%
18.4%
Last
1M
YTD
Foreigners
(304)
(3,095)
(15,242)
Local institutions
(760)
14,114
51,706
Retail investors
896 (19,552)
(51,776)
Proprietary
168
Exchange Rate
8,532
15,313
%YTD
Last
%Chg
EURUSD
1.2450
-0.6%
-9.4%
USDJPY
116.65
0.3%
10.8%
USDCNY
6.1270
0.0%
1.2%
USDTHB
32.80
0.0%
0.3%
Commodities
Last
%Chg
%YTD
WTI (USD/bl)
75.6
-0.2%
-23.1%
79.3
-0.1%
-25.1%
1,186.6
-0.2%
-1.3%
Brent (USD/bl)
Gold (USD/tr oz)
Issued by Phatra Securities Public Company Limited ("Phatra"). Phatra does and seeks to do business with companies covered or mentioned in its
research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Phatra may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 16.
Top Gainers
BMCL
RS
NYT
EGCO
TICON
%Chg
%YTD
1.80
+3.4%
+78.2%
+27.5%
9.05
+2.8%
14.90
+2.1%
-12.4%
174.00
+2.1%
+42.0%
19.80
+1.5%
+27.7%
Top Losers
Last
MEGA
17.00
-4.5%
BJCHI
35.00
-4.1%
+0.7%
MAJOR
24.80
-3.7%
+41.7%
KCE
38.50
-3.1%
+63.8%
4.00
-2.9%
-3.4%
SVI
Last
Most Active
PTT
ITD
Last
%Chg
%Chg
%YTD
-15.0%
%YTD
384.00
-1.0%
+34.3%
6.40
+0.8%
+64.9%
11.30
-0.9%
+70.4%
PTTEP
142.00
-1.0%
-14.7%
ADVANC
235.00
-0.8%
+17.8%
TRUE
Sectoral performance
SET Index
%Chg
%YTD
1,569.1
-0.4%
20.8%
21,641.7
-0.6%
13.0%
SET Banks
612.4
-0.6%
34.1%
SET ICT
224.4
-0.6%
17.6%
SET Commerce
29,433.5
-0.4%
11.7%
12,202.2
-1.2%
11.7%
320.6
0.1%
37.1%
12,044.4
0.9%
19.4%
1577.63
SET Petrochem
868.9
-0.8%
-11.6%
Day High
Last
SET Property
1,580
1,575
1575.88
Previous Close
4,223.0
-0.2%
53.9%
SET Transportation
212.0
-0.5%
30.9%
159.0
0.0%
1.2%
1569.07
1,570
Close
1568.7
Day Low
16:31
16:01
15:31
15:01
14:31
14:01
12:02
11:32
11:02
10:32
10:02
1,565
Source: Bloomberg
Todays news
Economy: FBA: 'no retroactive impact' (Nation)
Commerce Minister Gen Chatchai reassured concerned foreign
investors overseas that the plan to amend the Foreign
Business Act (FBA) will focus on "relaxation, reducing
procedures facilitating investment, and not deal retroactively
with existing firms", which would create an investmentfriendly atmosphere with a positive impact on investors. He
said the ministry had not yet come out with a draft
amendment, but was so far only studying how to amend the
law.
The Business Promotion Dept is conducting a study and a
public hearing and is expected to be finalized in Dec before
approval is sought from the minister and Cabinet for
amendments to the draft law. Under the plan to amend the
draft law, the definition of "foreigners" will be amended to
one based on international principles. It would also adjust
some qualifications for foreign investors to facilitate more
investment, review business lists under Annex III to be more
flexible, consider exemption for initial capital investment
limits in accordance with international agreements, increase
efficiency for foreign investors to get approval, and adjust
some penalties for nominees.
Stock Comments
BEC The storm is on the horizon
(Underperform/12-month PO Bt42.00)
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral
Following BEC's 3Q14 result we have trimmed our earnings
estimates by 3% in 2014 and 6% in 2015 and lowered our PO
to Bt42 from Bt45. While the 3Q14 result is only slightly
below our estimate, we think market expectation is too high
and our 2014 and 2015 revised estimates are 8% and 19%
below consensus respectively. While the consensus
anticipates earnings growth in 2015, we believe that
competition from digital TV and loss contribution from BEC's
digital TV operation will cause earnings to slide further in
2015/2016. We believe earnings downgrades will continue
and will pressure the share price.
(Underperform/12-month PO Bt9.00)
Loss narrows faster than expected
After stripping out exceptional items (including network
amortization acceleration) 3Q14 pre-exceptional loss declined
YoY. Although the loss expanded QoQ, nine-month loss makes
up only 33% of our full-year loss forecast. The main reason
for the positive surprise is the lower-than-expected SG&A and
on-going tax refund (since 4Q13). TRUE has completed the
recapitalization in 3Q14 and net gearing dropped to 41% from
1,458% in 2Q14. With expected interest-saving, TRUE could
move close to or reach breakeven point in 4Q14 at the preexceptional level.
Background
Previously, IRPC's president stated that the merger feasibility
study (including the potential synergy from the merger) would
be conducted in 2H15 after IRPC's UHV project (which is
deemed to be one of the key parts of synergy creation and
IRPC's value) is completed. The study was to be completed in
2016 at the earliest. IRPC also mentioned that the potential
merger would have to be justified by the synergy to be
created from the merger (which would be scrapped if it is not
commercially feasible).
CentralPlaza Salaya, in August, which generated lower-thanaverage rental rate of less than Bt1,400 per sqm per month.
However, CPN confirmed that the same-store rental rate in
3Q14 still grew by 4% YoY.
PO Bt2.18)
(Underperform/12-month PO Bt36.00)
Strong 3Q results
3Q14 pre-exceptional profit dropped 50% YoY and ninemonth earnings make up 66% of our full-year forecast and
51% of Bloomberg consensus. Gross margin did not improve
as expected as raw material prices remain high and sales of
healthcare product are softer than expected, although public
hospitals have resumed procurement programs after the May
coup. Our Underperform rating is maintained.
Operations update
SIRI achieved presales of Bt2.5bn in 3Q14, bringing total
presales to Bt6.7bn in 9M14 (down 82% YoY). 9M14 presales
accounted for 56% of its Bt12bn revised presales target. The
weak presales should be mainly attributed to the delay of
condo launches to next year while landed property presales
remained weak with more than a 20% YoY decline in 9M14.
Note that SIRI recently cut its presales target to Bt12bn from
Bt30bn. The company also lowered its housing revenue target
to Bt27bn versus our estimate of Bt28.2bn revenue target to
Bt29bn to reflect weaker presales and a weaker launch plan.
Spirits sales volume dropped 11% YoY and spirits net profit
declined 2% YoY (versus 19% YoY profit growth in 2Q14) due
to inventory buildup among distributors ahead of the
September 2013 excise tax hike (i.e. the high base effect).
Non-alcoholic division remains in loss and food division
plunged into loss due to a sharp drop in gross margin. If we
add back the exceptional items, FNN/FCL contribution is flat
YoY.
Previous: +0.4%YoY
10
Market Summary
% Change
Global Indices
Dow Jones
S&P 500
Nasdaq
FTSE 100
STOXX600
Nikkei
Hang Seng
Last
17,647.8
2,041.3
4,671.0
6,672.0
115.1
16,973.8
23,797.1
1D
0.1%
0.1%
-0.4%
0.3%
0.5%
-3.0%
-1.2%
1W
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
-0.2%
1.2%
0.2%
1M
7.7%
8.2%
9.7%
5.7%
5.7%
16.8%
3.4%
3M
4.3%
3.0%
3.2%
-1.6%
0.4%
9.9%
-5.3%
YTD
6.5%
10.4%
11.8%
-1.1%
2.6%
4.2%
2.1%
1Y
10.6%
13.5%
17.2%
-0.3%
4.2%
11.9%
3.3%
419.6
1,715.0
115.1
985.9
477.1
Last
1,569.1
2,313.0
1,046.3
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.5%
-0.5%
-0.7%
1D
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.1%
0.0%
-0.2%
-1.2%
-0.7%
1W
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
5.7%
6.3%
5.7%
0.9%
3.0%
1M
2.6%
2.7%
3.1%
-2.0%
-1.1%
0.4%
-9.1%
-6.9%
3M
1.7%
1.0%
1.0%
2.7%
3.2%
2.6%
-1.7%
1.9%
YTD
20.8%
19.7%
18.4%
4.9%
5.8%
4.2%
-1.9%
1.3%
1Y
10.4%
8.3%
7.8%
21,641.7
612.4
224.4
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-0.2%
0.2%
1.1%
3.5%
4.2%
2.7%
2.1%
0.0%
7.9%
13.0%
34.1%
17.6%
7.2%
14.0%
2.4%
SET Commerce
SET Food & Beverages
SET Property
SET Constr Mat
SET Petrochem
SET Health Care
SET Transportation
SET Property Fund
Currency
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCNY
USDTHB
Commodities
WTI (USD/bl)
Brent (USD/bl)
Gold (USD/tr oz)
29,433.5
12,202.2
320.6
12,044.4
868.9
4,223.0
212.0
159.0
Last
1.2450
116.65
6.1270
32.80
Last
75.64
79.31
1,186.57
-0.4%
-1.2%
0.1%
0.9%
-0.8%
-0.2%
-0.5%
0.0%
1D
-0.6%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1D
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.2%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
2.1%
-0.7%
-1.0%
0.4%
-0.6%
1W
0.2%
1.6%
0.1%
-0.1%
1W
-2.3%
-4.4%
3.0%
-0.5%
-1.3%
3.3%
4.1%
5.8%
0.9%
3.8%
0.1%
1M
-2.4%
9.1%
0.0%
1.2%
1M
-8.6%
-8.4%
-4.2%
-5.7%
-0.7%
3.7%
5.5%
-6.5%
1.6%
3.7%
-2.7%
3M
-6.5%
13.3%
-0.2%
2.8%
3M
-19.9%
-23.2%
-8.4%
11.7%
11.7%
37.1%
19.4%
-11.6%
53.9%
30.9%
1.2%
YTD
-9.4%
10.8%
1.2%
0.3%
YTD
-23.1%
-25.1%
-1.3%
5.3%
16.5%
15.8%
12.7%
-14.9%
44.4%
9.8%
-0.3%
1Y
-7.8%
16.4%
0.6%
3.8%
1Y
-19.4%
-23.4%
-8.0%
Treasury Yield
Last
US 2Y Yield
0.51
US 5Y Yield
1.63
US 10Y Yield
2.34
TH 2Y Yield
2.15
TH 5Y Yield
2.49
TH 10Y Yield
3.01
Cumulative Net Buy (THBmn)
Foreigners
Local institutions
Retail investors
Proprietary
Cumulative Foreign Flows (US$mn)
Thailand
Indonesia
Korea
Taiwan
Philippines
1D
-0
+2
+2
-1
-4
-3
1D
(304)
(760)
896
168
1D
(9)
36
(43)
(186)
5
1W
-3
-2
-2
-4
-9
-8
1W
159
(97)
(1,422)
1,360
1W
5
281
(67)
111
30
3M
+8
+5
-6
-24
-56
-53
3M
12,382
14,648
(29,145)
2,116
3M
387
(605)
(1,940)
1,522
(232)
YTD
+13
-12
-69
-47
-92
-97
YTD
(14,647)
47,096
(45,130)
12,681
YTD
(425)
4,247
5,789
12,625
793
1Y
+22
+28
-36
-68
-110
-105
1Y
(83,079)
65,478
5,575
12,026
1Y
(2,558)
3,800
4,714
14,034
615
MSCI ACWI
MSCI World
MSCI Europe
MSCI EM
MSCI AsiaPac ex Japan
SET
SET Index
SET100 Index
SET50 Index
Change in bps
1M
+14
+21
+15
-12
-23
-22
1M
(3,095)
14,114
(19,552)
8,532
1M
(97)
465
(235)
2,663
(221)
11
Volume (Shares)
273,200
152,700
224,800
3,863,500
71,200
36,000
223,600
40,200
57,500
200,000
85,100
36,800
245,500
742,900
500,000
66,700
54,000
57,300
51,000
132,600
Turnover (Baht)
64,217,000.00
58,988,100.00
53,439,600.00
25,005,505.00
12,994,000.00
7,178,500.00
6,652,100.00
5,748,600.00
5,738,125.00
4,620,000.00
4,313,600.00
2,703,800.00
2,411,290.00
2,283,292.00
2,100,000.00
2,070,200.00
1,876,000.00
1,837,125.00
1,747,250.00
1,643,060.00
235.00
384.00
238.00
6.40
183.00
198.50
29.50
142.00
99.75
23.00
50.25
73.00
9.85
3.06
4.16
31.00
34.25
31.75
35.00
12.30
235.05
386.30
237.72
6.47
182.50
199.40
29.75
143.00
99.79
23.10
50.69
73.47
9.82
3.07
4.20
31.04
34.74
32.06
34.26
12.39
Source: SET
*Remark - Excluding a short sale by a member that is a participating dealer or market maker of the ETF investment units for the company's account, for
the purpose of realizing a profit from a price spread (arbitrage), or for the purpose of stabilizing liquidity, as the case may be.
12
Nov 2014
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
DTAC
XD
Bt1.57
10
XD
Bt0.192
OHTL
XD
Bt4.00
DCC
17
Bt0.0852
CPNCG
XD
Bt0.196
XD
Bt0.1997
CPNRF
XD
Bt0.323
SIRIP
XD
Bt0.15
QHPF
XD
Bt0.182
ROJNA
XR
SPWPF
XD
Bt0.2188
TGROWTH
XD
Bt0.2357
TRUEIF
XD
Bt0.2603
XD
24
XD
UOB8TF
19
XD
Bt0.20
BKI
XD
Bt2.75
BKKCP
XD
Bt0.1522
EARTH
XD
Bt0.05
BLAND
XD
Bt0.04
TASCO
XD
Bt1.00
BTSGIF
XD
Bt0.156
TWZ
XR
26:3
CPTGF
XD
Bt0.1983
DSGT
XD
Bt0.06
FUTUREPF
XD
Bt0.326
XD
Bt1.00
XD
Bt0.06
TIF1
XD
Bt0.11
TTLPF
XD
Bt0.33
21
XD
Bt0.10
SPF
XD
Bt0.325
27
AMATA
HANA
Bt0.111
CHG
26
KAMART
XD
14
20
Bt0.15
25
Bt0.11
13
Bt0.67
4:1
@Bt7.0
12
18
UPOIC
XD
XD
PPF
11
CRYSTAL
LHK
ERWPF
FORTH
XD
MILL
XR
2:1
TFUND
XD
Bt0.17
TLOGIS
XD
Bt0.20
@Bt1.2
28
Bt0.15
@Bt0.55
Source: SET
13
Name of Management
KYUYOUNG LEE
PANITARN PAVAROLARVIDYA
YUTH CHINSUPAKUL
RATHIAN SRIMONGKOL
PRAPAS CHUTIMAVORAPHAND
PRAPAS CHUTIMAVORAPHAND
PAKORN BORIMASPORN
SURACHAI CHETCHOTISAK
WATCHAI VILAILUCK
PHICHET KANOGSIRIMA
BLAND-W4 ANANT KANJANAPAS
BLA
PRAPAIVAN LIMSONG
BTS-W3
KEEREE KANJANAPAS
BTS-W3
KEEREE KANJANAPAS
EPCO
YUTH CHINSUPAKUL
FIRE
PRACHA PHROMPHORNCHAI
FIRE
VARINKAN TERAUMRANON
L&E
PUNYAMON SRIRATANAMONGKOL
L&E-W3
PUNYAMON SRIRATANAMONGKOL
NMG
SERMSIN SAMALAPA
PL
ALONGKORN THANGSUPANICH
PYLON
BORDIN SANGARAYAKUL
PYLON
CHANET SANGARAYAKUL
PYLON
VONGCHAI SANGARAYAKUL
SMT
PEERAPOL WILAIWONGSTIEN
SVI
MANOON NOONATE
SVI
PHICHET KANOGSIRIMA
TIES
SUCHAI STAPORNCHAIYASIT
TIES
SUCHAI STAPORNCHAIYASIT
TIES
SUCHAI STAPORNCHAIYASIT
TRT
TAI CHONG YIH
TRT
TAI CHONG YIH
Relationship Types
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Reporter
Spouse
Reporter
Reporter
C
C
C
C
C
C
W
C
C
C
W
C
W
W
C
C
C
C
W
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Transaction
Date
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
13/11/2014
13/11/2014
14/11/2014
13/11/2014
13/11/2014
12/11/2014
13/11/2014
12/11/2014
13/11/2014
12/11/2014
13/11/2014
12/11/2014
14/11/2014
13/11/2014
13/11/2014
13/11/2014
13/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
12/11/2014
12/11/2014
13/11/2014
14/11/2014
14/11/2014
12/11/2014
12/11/2014
Amount
20,000
500
550,000
10,000
50,000
55,300
1,055,553
2,300,000
772,700
500,000
10,000,000
10,000
20,000,000
27,232,318
350,000
2,100,000
100,000
30,000
30,000
10,000,000
95,600
2,375,000
6,675,000
1,375,000
100,000
2,835,700
700,000
17,000,000
17,000,000
20,000,000
200,000
158,100
Outstanding
Avg.
%
Price (Bt)
0.01
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.06
0.22
0.08
0.02
0.14
0.00
0.51
0.69
0.05
0.60
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.30
0.02
0.84
2.37
0.49
0.02
0.13
0.03
3.81
3.81
4.48
0.06
0.05
36.50
24.98
7.55
22.30
12.93
12.89
4.79
8.85
29.75
4.24
0.67
56.25
1.63
1.62
7.85
6.10
5.70
7.20
4.94
1.52
4.20
8.10
8.10
8.10
5.80
4.40
4.60
1.85
2.40
2.40
6.35
6.40
The
methods
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Source: SET
14
Change (bps)
0.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-4.00
-3.00
-5.00
-5.00
-3.00
-3.00
Swap (MID)
1.780
1.865
2.000
2.165
2.295
2.430
2.500
2.620
2.700
2.740
Change (bps)
-2.50
-4.00
-5.50
-6.00
-6.00
-2.00
-6.80
-1.50
-1.50
-7.00
US Treasury Curve
Tenor
0.99
2.58
4.57
7.09
8.58
Yield
2.060
2.200
2.423
2.705
2.831
Change (bps)
0.00
-2.00
-4.15
-5.60
4.10
Index
6MTHBFIX
6MFDR
MLR
BIBOR
%
1.8031
2.07
6.75
2.29
Source: Bloomberg
Comments
-The total trading value of Thai govt bonds increased by 5%. Thailands GDP of +0.60% YoY came out worse than what market had
expected (vs. consensus forecast of +1.1%). 10Y benchmark traded lower by 4bps and closed at 2.83. Govt clean price index ended
higher by 9 bps.
-Spot market, USDTHB moved in a tight range of 32.76-80.
-Yesterday US Treasury yields moved within a range of -0.51 to 2.18 bps. 2Y yields decreased by 0.39 bps while 10Y yields
increased by 1.95 bps.
Calendar of Government Debt Securities Action in November 2014
Mon 17
Tue 18
Wed 19
Thu 20
Fri 21
TB14D17A - 15,000
CB15219B - 25,000
CB15521A - 28,000
LBA37DA - 10,000
BOT177A - 30,000
SRT24NA - 700
Total
108,700
Source : www.ibond.thaibma.or.th
Sell
3,993.80
7.01
1,586.41
Net
2,540.73
132.64
1,032.85
1,453.07
-125.63
553.56
15
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This report has been prepared based on, among other things, fundamental research reports of Phatra Securities Public Company
Limited (Phatra). It is issued by Private Wealth Management Research team and is not a publication of Phatra Research Group
(Phatra Research). The information herein was obtained from various sources: we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
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Incorporated (MLPF&S). Please see full research reports for more details.
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Investment principal on bonds can be eroded depending on sale price or market price. In addition, there are bonds on which
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16
Airports of Thailand
Banpu
Bangkok Bank
Bangchak Petroleum
LPN Property
Development
Total Access
Communication
Electricity Generating
Central Pattana
INTUCH
IRPC
Indorama Ventures
Kasikornbank
Ch. Karnchang
MCOT
Minor International
PTT
PTT Exploration
Quality Houses
Ratchaburi Electricity
Generating
Robinson Department
Store
Thai Airways
International
Siam Cement
Supalai
Thanachart Capital
Thaicom
Tisco Bank
Thai Oil
True Corporation
Companies with Very Good CG Scoring by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage
Amata Corporation
BEC World
Bumrungrad Hospital
Big C Supercenter
Berli Jucker
CP All
ESSO (Thailand)
GFPT
Glow Energy
Sansiri
Asian Property
Development
Ticon Industrial
Connection
N/A
Companies without survey result available by alphabetical order under Phatras Coverage
MK Restaurant
Thai Beverage
Nok Airlines
17