FUTURE STORIES #1

April 8, 2008

Blogs
By Gerd Leonhard become Labels
www.mediafuturist.com
-and Bloggers will
be the new Music
Moguls

Within 2 years, the leading music blogs will
become what used to be called 'Record
Labels'. The people running them will be
those sharp, tuned-in, hyper-networked and
resourceful BlogJs formerly known as
bloggers. They will use their blogs as the
primary attention channel (yes - attention
really is the new distribution) and will dish up
a complete, interactive and highly relevant
multi-media experience that includes TV
shows, chats, webcasts and games. Forget
about 'websites' and browsers - the BlogJs
will do it on all platforms and devices.
The future
brings 1000s of
micro-music-
channels that
will literally
broadcast - or
rather, 'narrow-
cast' their
longtailing
creations - be it text, audio, images or videos
- to their hungry subscribers using
MediaRSS feeds and customized my-stuff-
pages such as [fiction alert] imoogli, beatwibes
amd muflakes that will 'live' on any
connected device, e.g. your mobile, your TV,
your computer, your interactive bathroom
screen, your wrist watch, your wimax-ing car
radio, or your new P2P global gaming
network. Widgets will continue to become
instant, ubiquitous mini-site modules that will
allow anyone to re-distribute any kind of
content, to any device and any platform,
anywhere. Most marketing will be done
through and with the users - and some of
them will get paid for it, too.
BlogJs will attract an influential, engaged
and proactive audience by flouting their
charismatic personalities - indeed, these
disruptors, thought leaders and influencers
will be our future broadcasters. Like digital-
age editions of ‘analog’ radio personalities
such as the BBC’s John Peel (rip), these
BlogJs will lead the way in matters of
coolness, style, technology, gadgets, trends,
politics, fashion and games, using new
platforms like [fiction alert] Muserati, Digggster,
Musicious, Lovenotion, MyDace and many
others. And yes, many of them will be from
China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia or
Mozambique. Goodbye anglo-centric
blogoshere.
 Social Networks are the new Broadcasters
Source: Flickr: thomashawk and lynetter
...and they will broadcast to (and from!)
those always-on, always-within-reach and
utterly personalized mobile devices fka
GERD LEONHARD FUTURE STORIES April 8, 2008

mobile phones, not just to or from

computers. Blogs will amalgamate with, and
integrate into social networks. Personal
publishing will evolve to include entire ‘me-
casting’ toolboxes. My taste, my list, my
ears, my audience, my artists, my network
i.e.... you guessed, it, my record label.
Another 9-12 months and we will have the
the first BlogJ signing the first hot new artist
to a agency-type agreement.

Music blogs will explode with the advent of

the new music fat rate. Sites like [fiction alert]
Quadrogum will rule, and blog aggregators
like UeberFeed will become the next Infiniti
Radio. Widgets will become as common as
email (which will fade away). Hundreds of
niche-obsessed BlogJs will emerge, becoming
trusted opinion leaders that will draw 10s if not 100s
of 1000s of networked music fans that will discover
new music this way - strictly by lifestyle i.e. genre
and sub-sub-sub-sub genre. Much like it used to be
in music-television; coolness and credibility will rule
here.

Those former MP3 pirates and stream-rippers are

the new Clive Davis’s and Ahmet Erteguns - they
have the ears for the new artists and a direct
pipeline (read: feed) to perfectly matched
audiences, around the globe. BlogJs will open clubs
and spaces where their ‘readers’ can meet, both in
RL (Real Life) as well as virtually. Think [fiction alert]
HypdaBar. The [fiction alert] nipho9-5 (see box on
right) will be their weapon of choice, fully loaded
with a 20 mega-pixel camera and HD Video
recorder, quadrophonic real-time sound remixer, 10
+ ways of always-on connectivity, 2.5 terrabyte of
flash storage, and a build-in image projector.
April 8, 2008 Once flat-rate music offerings become the standard...
- and they will, without a doubt (see more details
here) i.e. by early 2009 - music-based blogging
will be unleashed in a major way and stands to
become very powerful very quickly - everyone is
going to want a piece of that hot new BlogJ. This
GERD LEONHARD FUTURE STORIES
is when we will see blogs become record labels
and music publishers (albeit with an altogether
different operating paradigm), filling the gaping
void that has been left by the dinosauric and
hopelessly control- obsessed major labels, those
large indie label chiefs
that still hope to
become major label
bosses themselves
before the money dries
up, short-sighted and
technologically hyper-
challenged managers,
and eerily self-outmoding
public broadcasters.
In less than 2 years from now, ubiquitous and fully
legal yet 'feels like free' music offerings will bring
us music bloggers that will become bigger than
the biggest radio DJs we’ve ever had. And just
like a lot of successful radio personalities before
them they will move on to become A&R people
and label owners, too. The difference is, of course,
that they will have powerful, direct, zero-friction
distribution channels at their disposal, and a loyal
global audience, built-in and ready to go. All they
have to do is keep on earning and retaining the
attention of their users.
Look for those new BlogJ’s to attract highly
targeted and ‘loaded’ advertisers, steered by
forward-looking large-brand CMOs and next-
generation creative agencies such as TribalDDB or
Droga5. These ads will pay as much as $5 per
click-thru (CPT), with major brands ‘sponsoring’
music blogs that fit their exact brand vision.
Once the bizarrely overdue and tired issue of 'how
to legally provide streams and downloads of any
song I choose' is solved, so that a BlogJ can finally
use music just like a radio station uses music (i.e.
powered by a collective voluntary blanket license),
music blogs will explode and quickly increase their
reach beyond the current blogosphere inhabitants
and netizens, beyond the computer, and most
importantly beyond the web browser. Imagine a
blog that streams a personalized radio channel via
a mobile application that sits within your favorite
social network - this is the next radio! Whether or
rather how you will get to keep the music will not
be relevant any longer - what matters is the
selection, the endorsement, the context, the
relevance. No longer are we going to be hungry
for just any music provided that it's free, now
we are hungry for relevance. So, here is some
advise for the last few incumbent record labels of
today:
• Dive into music blogging, NOW. either start your
own or engage with existing ones...
• Build a global network of bloggers that you can
'feed' with your music. Engage, talk, learn...
• Get ready to invest time & money in the top blogs
• Look at bloggers as your next A&R people
Soon, a music-RSS feed from the leading goa-pop
Source: Flickr: Meat99
guru will be just as valuable as those hip shows
programmed by Nick Harcourt at KCRW or by
Stephen Hill at Hears of Space (and theirs will be
even more renowned). Once broadcasting is
legally and officially delivering music and the
myriad of bizarre licensing problems fall by the
wayside, bloggers will quickly morph into record
labels. Artists will 'sign' with them to get their
official approval which will mean instant notoriety in
your target audience. Blogs are...Labels.
When: 18 months
Where: everywhere (but EU, Asia, BRIC countries
first because there are less legal issues around so-
called mechanical copies)
Impact level (from 1-10): 4
Opportunity rating (from 1-10): 9