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The investment community, which included large mutual funds, exercised little
deep independent analysis of Enrons numbers even though at the peak Enron
absorbed about $70 billion of investors funds.
1.3. An Indian Example: The 1992 Harshad Mehta Stock Market Scam
1.3.1. Introduction
In April 1992, press reports indicated that there was a shortfall in the Government
Securities held by the State Bank of India. In almost a month, investigations uncovered
the tip of an iceberg, later called the securities scam, involving misappropriation of
funds to the tune of over Rs. 3500 crores.
The scam engulfed top executives of large nationalized banks, foreign banks and
financial institutions, brokers, bureaucrats and politicians. The functioning of the
money market and the stock market was thrown in disarray. The tainted shares were
worthless as they could not be sold. This created a panic among investors and brokers
and led to a prolonged closure of the stock exchanges along with a precipitous drop in
the price of shares. In less than 2 months following the discovery of the scam, the stock
prices dropped by over 40%, wiping out market value to the tune of Rs. 100,000 crores.
The scam was in essence a diversion of funds from the banking system (in particular
the inter-bank market in government securities) to brokers for financing their
operations in the stock market.
The cost of finance in the informal money market which finances stock market
operations was about twice that of the formal market in which banks lend to each
other against government securities. The difference in the cost of finance in the two
markets could not be attributed to the difference in the level of risk. The phenomenon
of different interest rates was mainly due to artificial segmentation of the markets.
Therefore there were enormous profits to be had for anybody who could find a way of
breaching the artificial wall separating the two markets and arbitrage between them.
That in essence was what the scam was all about.
1.3.2. The Ready Forward Deal
The ready forward (RF) was in essence a secured short term (typically 15 day) loan
from one bank to another bank. The lending was done against government securities.
In form, however, the RF was not a loan at all but a repo or repurchase agreement. It
served two main purposes:
To provide liquidity to the government securities markets.
Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) requirements. Banks in India were required to
maintain 38.5% of their demand and time liabilities (DTL) in government securities and
certain approved securities which are collectively known as SLR securities. RF helps in
managing this requirement in two ways:
A bank which has a temporary surge in DTL may not want to buy SLR securities
outright and then sell them when the DTL comes back to normal. Instead it can do an
RF deal.
An RF deal is not legally a loan and hence not regarded as a part of the bank's
liabilities
1.3.3. Settlement Process
The normal settlement process in government securities was that the transacting
banks made payments and delivered the securities directly to each other. The broker's
only function was to bring the buyer and seller together. During the scam, however,
the banks or at least some banks adopted an alternative settlement process similar to
settlement of stock market transactions. The deliveries of securities and payments
were made through the broker. That is, the seller handed over the securities to the
broker who passed them on to the buyer, while the buyer gave the cheque to the
broker who then made the payment to the seller.
There were two important reasons why the broker intermediated settlement began to
be used in the government securities markets:
The brokers instead of merely bringing buyers and sellers together started taking
positions in the market. They in a sense imparted greater liquidity to the markets.
When a bank wanted to conceal the fact that it was doing an RF deal, the broker
came in handy. The broker provided contract notes for this purpose with fictitious
counterparties, but arranged for the actual settlement to take place with the correct
counterparty.
This allowed the broker to lay his hands on the cheque as it went from one bank to
another through him. The hurdle now was to find a way of crediting the cheque to his
account though it was drawn in favour of a bank and was crossed account payee.
It is purely a matter of banking custom that an account payee cheque is paid only to
the payee mentioned on the cheque. In fact, privileged (corporate) customers were
routinely allowed to credit account payee cheques in favour of a bank into their own
accounts to avoid clearing delays, thereby reducing the interest lost on the amount.
The brokers thus found a way of getting hold of the cheques as they went from one
bank to another and crediting the amounts to their accounts. This effectively
transformed an RF into a loan to a broker rather than to a bank.
But this, by itself, would not have led to the scam because the RF after all is a secured
loan, and a secured loan to a broker is still secured. What was necessary now was to
find a way of eliminating the security itself!
Three routes adopted for this purpose were:
Some banks (or rather their officials) were persuaded to part with cheques without
actually receiving securities in return. A simple explanation of this is that the officials
concerned were bribed and/or negligent. Alternatively, as long as the scam lasted, the
banks benefited from such an arrangement. The management of banks might have
been sorely tempted to adopt this route to higher profitability.
The second route was to replace the actual securities by a worthless piece of paper
a fake Bank Receipt (BR). A BR like an IOU has only the borrower's assurance that the
borrower has the securities which can/will be delivered if/when the need arises.
The third method was simply to forge the securities themselves. In many cases, PSU
bonds were represented only by allotment letters rather than certificates on security
paper.
1.3.4. Aftermath
The scam was made possible by a complete breakdown of the control system both
within the commercial banks as well as the control system of the RBI itself.
The immediate impact of the scam was a sharp fall in the share prices. The index fell
from 4500 to 2500 representing a loss of Rs. 100,000 crores in market capitalization.
Purely technically speaking, the scam just resulted in withdrawal of about Rs. 3,500
crores from the market, which for a market of the size of Rs. 250,000 crores is a very
small amount, and therefore should have had little impact on the prices. There were,
however two major reasons for the fall, both related to the government's knee jerk
response to the scam. First was the phenomenon of tainted shares which created
panic in the market and second was the perceived slowdown of the reform process
which destroyed the very foundation on which the boom was based.
Most of the criminal cases against Harshad Mehta were closed after his death in 2002
of a heart attack. He was convicted in only one.
Boy band mogul Lou Pearlman, who launched Backstreet Boys and 'N Sync, was
sentenced to 25 years in prison for swindling investors and major US banks out of more
than $300 million.
investors.
The SEC's revelation that Stanford's business empire -- stretching from the Caribbean
island of Antigua to Houston, Miami and Caracas, was exposed to losses from the
alleged Ponzi scheme run by financier Bernard Madoff completes the picture of a huge
financial fraud.
1.4.5. Brian Hunter (March/April 2006)
Hedge fund Amaranth Advisors LLC and former head trader Brian Hunter racked up
$6.4 billion in losses from natural gas contracts before the fund folded in 2006.
In July 2007, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Amaranth and Hunter,
alleging they tried to manipulate natural gas futures prices.
1.4.6. Jerome Kerviel (January 2008)
French bank Societe Generale alleged that fraud by a single trader caused a $7.1 billion
loss. Jerome Kerviel, a junior trader, was jailed in connection with the case. He was
later released but still faces accusations that he caused SocGen billions of euros of
losses.
Richard Fuld, the chief of Wall Street firm Lehman Brothers, called the debacle
"everyone's worst nightmare."
1.4.7. John Rusnak (February 2002)
Ireland's largest bank, Allied Irish, revealed a rogue US trader, John Rusnak, had
defrauded its US subsidiary of up to $750 million.
Rusnak was sentenced in January 2003 to seven and a half years in prison.
He admitted devising a scheme that netted him $850,000 in salary and bonuses from
1997 to 2001.
1.4.8. Merill Lynch (September 2001)
Merrill Lynch fired two senior executives for their failure to supervise a currency dealer
who diverted profits on foreign exchange deals to favored clients, leaving the bank
facing a $10 million bill.
1.4.9. Reed Slatkin (September 2003)
Financier Reed Slatkin, who helped create Internet service provider Earthlink Inc, was
sentenced to 14 years in prison for bilking investors out of hundreds of millions of
dollars.
The global financial crisis, brewing for a while, really started to show its effects in
the middle of 2007 and into 2008. Around the world stock markets fell, large
financial institutions collapsed or had to be bought out, and governments in even
the wealthiest nations have had to come up with rescue packages to bail out their
financial systems.
In its 2008 report, the IMF had the following to say, The world economy is
decelerating quicklybuffeted by an extraordinary financial shock and by still-high
energy and commodity pricesand many advanced economies are close to or
moving into recession.
2.2. Causes and Precipitating Factors
High street banks got into a form of investment banking, buying, selling and
trading risk. Investment banks, not content with buying, selling and trading risk,
got into home loans, mortgages, etc. without the right controls and
management. Many banks were taking on huge risks increasing their exposure
to problems. Perhaps it was ironic, as Evan Davies observed, that a financial
instrument to reduce risk and help lend more securitieswould backfire so
much.
When people did eventually start to see problems, confidence fell quickly.
Lending slowed, in some cases ceased for a while and even now, there is a crisis
of confidence. Some investment banks were sitting on the riskiest loans that
other investors did not want. Assets were plummeting in value so lenders
wanted to take their money back. But some investment banks had little in
deposits; no secure retail funding, so some collapsed quickly and dramatically.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist who criticized the entire
thought process of finance in his noted article, How did economists get it so
wrong? has said that the housing bubble in the U.S.A. is an example of
ketchup economics (Proving that two bottles of ketchup cost twice as much
as one, and thus inferring that the price of one ketchup bottle must be right).
He states that the neo classical economists of the late 19 th century who came
up with financial innovations never equated them with real world fundamentals
like wages.
Refer to How did economists get it so wrong?-Paul Krugman, September
2009, New York Times and the popular reply by an eminent Chicago school of
Business professor John Cochrane, How did Paul Krugman get it so wrong?.
2.2.2. Financial Derivatives
Derivatives, financial futures, credit default swaps, and related instruments came out
of the turmoil from the 1970s. The oil shock, the double-digit inflation in the US and a
drop of 50% in the US stock market made businesses look harder for ways to manage
risk and insure themselves more effectively.
The finance industry flourished as more people started looking into how to insure
against the downsides when investing in something. To find out how to price this
insurance, economists came up with options, a derivative that gives you the right to
buy something in the future at a price agreed now. Mathematical and economic
geniuses believed they had come up with a formula of how to price an option,
the Black-Scholes model.
This was a hit; once options could be priced, it became easier to trade. A whole new
market in risk was born. Combined with the growth of telecoms and computing, the
derivatives market exploded making buying and selling of risk on the open market
possible in ways never seen before.
As people became successful quickly, they used derivatives not to reduce their risk, but
to take on more risk to make more money. Hedge funds, credit default swaps, can be
legitimate instruments when trying to insure against whether someone will default or
not, but the problem came about when the market became more speculative in
nature.
The market for credit default swaps market (a derivative on insurance on when a
business defaults), for example, was enormous, exceeding the entire world economic
output of $50 trillion by summer 2008. It was also poorly regulated. The worlds largest
insurance and financial services company, AIG alone had credit default swaps of
around $400 billion at that time. Furthermore, many of AIGs credit default swaps were
on mortgages, which of course went downhill, and so did AIG.
The trade in these swaps created a whole web of interlinked dependencies; a chain
only as strong as the weakest link. Any problem, such as risk or actual significant loss
could spread quickly. Hence, eventually AIG had to be bailed out by the US government
to prevent them from failing.
Derivatives didnt cause this financial meltdown but they did accelerate it once the
subprime mortgage collapsed, because of the interlinked investments. Derivatives
revolutionized the financial markets and will likely be here to stay because there is
such a demand for insurance and mitigating risk. The challenge now, is to reign in the
wilder excesses of derivatives to avoid those incredibly expensive disasters and
prevent more AIGs happening.
The second reason for dismay is that India's recent growth has been driven predominantly
by domestic consumption and domestic investment. External demand, as measured by
merchandize exports, accounts for less than 15 per cent of our GDP. The question then is,
even if there is a global downturn, why should India be affected when its dependence on
external demand is so limited?
The answer to both the above frequently-asked questions lies in globalization.
First, India's integration into the world economy over the last decade has been remarkably
rapid. Integration into the world implies more than just exports. Going by the common
measure of globalization, India's two-way trade (merchandize exports plus imports), as a
proportion of GDP, grew from 21.2 per cent in 1997-98, the year of the Asian crisis, to 34.7
per cent in 2007-08.
Second, India's financial integration with the world has been as deep as India's trade
globalization, if not deeper. If we take an expanded measure of globalization, that is the
ratio of total external transactions (gross current account flows plus gross capital flows) to
GDP, this ratio has more than doubled from 46.8 per cent in 1997-98 to 117.4 per cent in
2007-08.
Importantly, the Indian corporate sector's access to external funding has markedly
increased in the last five years. Some numbers will help illustrate the point. In the five-year
period 2003-08, the share of investment in India's GDP rose by 11 percentage points.
Corporate savings financed roughly half of this, but a significant portion of the balance
financing came from external sources. While funds were available domestically, they were
expensive relative to foreign funding. On the other hand, in a global market awash with
liquidity and on the promise of India's growth potential, foreign investors were willing to
take risks and provide funds at a lower cost. Last year (2007/08), for example, India
received capital inflows amounting to over 9 per cent of GDP as against a current account
deficit in the balance of payments of just 1.5 per cent of GDP. These capital flows, in excess
of the current account deficit, evidence the importance of external financing and the depth
of India's financial integration.
So, the reason India has been hit by the crisis, despite mitigating factors, is clearly India's
rapid and growing integration into the global economy.
2.4.2. How Has India Been Hit By the Crisis?
The contagion of the crisis has spread to India through all the channels the financial
channel, the real channel, and importantly, as happens in all financial crises, the confidence
channel.
Let us first look at the financial channel. India's financial markets - equity markets, money
markets, forex markets and credit markets - had all come under pressure from a number of
directions. First, as a consequence of the global liquidity squeeze, Indian banks and
corporates found their overseas financing drying up, forcing corporates to shift their credit
demand to the domestic banking sector. Also, in their frantic search for substitute
financing, corporates withdrew their investments from domestic money market mutual
funds putting redemption pressure on the mutual funds and down the line on non-banking
financial companies (NBFCs) where the MFs had invested a significant portion of their
funds. This substitution of overseas financing by domestic financing brought both money
markets and credit markets under pressure. Second, the forex market came under pressure
because of reversal of capital flows as part of the global deleveraging process.
Simultaneously, corporates were converting the funds raised locally into foreign currency to
meet their external obligations. Both these factors put downward pressure on the rupee.
Third, the Reserve Bank's intervention in the forex market to manage the volatility in the
rupee further added to liquidity tightening.
Second, the real channel. Here, the transmission of the global cues to the domestic
economy has been quite straight forward through the slump in demand for exports. The
United States, European Union and the Middle East, which account for three quarters of
India's goods and services trade, are in a synchronized down turn. Service export growth is
also likely to slow in the near term as the recession deepens and financial services firms
traditionally large users of outsourcing services are restructured. Remittances from
migrant workers too are likely to slow as the Middle East adjusts to lower crude prices and
advanced economies go into a recession.
Beyond the financial and real channels of transmission as described above, the crisis also
spread through the confidence channel. In sharp contrast to global financial markets, which
went into a seizure on account of a crisis of confidence, Indian financial markets continued
to function in an orderly manner. Nevertheless, the tightened global liquidity situation in
the period immediately following the Lehman failure in mid-September 2008, coming as it
did on top of a turn in the credit cycle, increased the risk aversion of the financial system
and made banks cautious about lending.
The purport of the above explanation is to show how, despite not being part of the financial
sector problem, India has been affected by the crisis through the pernicious feedback loops
between external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities by way of the financial, real and
confidence channels.
2.4.3. How has India Responded to the Challenge?
The failure of Lehman Brothers was followed in quick succession by several other large
financial institutions coming under severe stress. This made financial markets around the
world uncertain and unsettled. This contagion seemed to spread to emerging economies
and to India too. Both the government and the Reserve Bank of India responded to the
challenge in close coordination and consultation. The main plank of the government
response was fiscal stimulus while the Reserve Bank's action comprised monetary
accommodation and counter cyclical regulatory forbearance.
than what it was last year. This is because, even though bank credit has expanded, it has
not fully offset the decline in non-bank flow of resources to the commercial sector.
Evaluating the response
In evaluating the response to the crisis, it is important to remember that although the
origins of the crisis are common around the world, the crisis has impacted different
economies differently. Importantly, in advanced economies where it originated, the crisis
spread from the financial sector to the real sector. In emerging economies, the transmission
of external shocks to domestic vulnerabilities has typically been from the real sector to the
financial sector. Countries have accordingly responded to the crisis depending on their
specific country circumstances. Thus, even as policy responses across countries are broadly
similar, their precise design, quantum, sequencing and timing have varied. In particular,
while policy responses in advanced economies have had to contend with both the unfolding
financial crisis and deepening recession, in India, our response has been predominantly
driven by the need to arrest moderation in economic growth.
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