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necesario estimar los impuestos si la venta del activo forma parte del
activos.
Qu conjuntos de Libros?
Libros fiscales: siguen las reglas de la IRS. Los intereses sobre los
bonos municipales se omiten. Se utiliza la depreciacin acelerada.
cifras de los libros fiscales son las que imxtan porque los FE solo s
anlisis del proyecto: (1) invierte, lo que produce las salidas de efectivo, (2)
ventas del producto generan entradas, (3) vende el IME al final, lo q produce
ms entradas.
elaborar el presupuesto de K.
Las reglas permiten q los ingresos d los libros d los acc sean mas altos
q lis ingresos q s registran en los Libros fiscales.
Una nota acerca del CT Neto: Esta inversin de CT neto representa salida
de efectivo xq el efectivo generado en otras partes d la empresa esta
Se compra inventario
inesperados
Impuestos
Mtodo de abajo hacia arriba: aqu s empieza con los resultados (utl
deprecacin)
bienes
races
equivalente
susceptibles
depre
separaron
Este mtodo pone los costos sobre una base anual. Maquina A = pago de la
en
2:
39 aos).
3. Inflacin y presupuesto de K
Tasas de inters e Inflacin: el % q realmente se gana con la cuenta de
ahorro se le denomina tasa de inters real. Tasa de inters nominal no
toma en cuenta la tasa de inflacin.
Tasa de inters real: (1+tasa d inters nominal/1+tasa de inflacin) 1
Flujo de Efectivo e Inflacin:
FE Nominal: dlares q s recibirn (pagaran) en efectivo.
FE Real: poder adquisitivo del flujo de efectivo.
Descuentos Nominales o Reales: Es necesario mantener una congruencia
entre los FE y las tasas de descuento: los FE nominales se deben descontar a
la tasa nominal y los FE reales de debe descontar a la tasa real. Adems, el
VPN es el mismo en ambos casos. Siempre s tiene q usar el mas sencillo.
CAPITAL
o Salario por ao
EQUILIBRIO
o Analistas preparan escenarios para cada una
Anlisis VPN tcnica de elaboracin del presupuesto de capital.
-
de las variables.
al
presente.
o Ventajas
1.
o Desventajas
tcnica de VPN.
(subjetivamente)
2.
Ingresos:
Costos :
3.
2.
1.
del modelo
Valor presente
Los VP tanto de ingresos como costos se calculan despus
3.
de impuestos
inicial.
explcitamente
-
proyecto.
-
5.
1.
3. OPCIONES
REALES
alternativas
disponibles
para
los
administradores
-
El anlisis VPN omite los ajustes (opciones reales) que una empresa
Postura conservadora.
a)
La opcin de temporalidad:
4. ARBOLES DE DECISION
o
RIESGO Y RENDIMIENTO
1.
Rendimientos:
Rendimientos en dlares.
3.
Estadsticas de rendimientos:
4.
negativa).
Suponga que en vez de vender sus acciones ud. las mantiene, debe
soportar el riesgo.
Hay muchos aos en los que una inversin en certificados del tesoro logra
dividendo.
Rendimientos porcentuales.
grandes.
5.
2.
rendimientos son menos inciertos. Las medidas del riesgo que estudiaremos
6.
Segn el ndice S&P 500 indico que ese ao fue tan malo que segn el
seguimiento al mercado total de 500 de las corporaciones estadounidenses
ms grandes, se redujeron en un 37% en el ao.
La cada en los precios de las acciones fue un fenmeno global en donde
muchos de los mercados del mundo sufrieron cadas.
Solo los valores de bonos aumentaron, en particular, los bonos del tesoro de
EEUU, tanto lo de largo como corto plazo.
La leccin a aprender de la crisis del 2008 es que las acciones presentan
riesgo considerable.
Un portafolio diversificado de acciones y bonos sufri prdidas menores que
las de un portafolio conformado solo por acciones.
Debido a la creciente volatilidad y aversin intensificada al riesgo, muchos
han argumentado que en el futuro la prima de riesgo de las acciones ser tal
vez un poco ms alta de lo que ha sido histricamente.
Rendimiento y riesgo
el pasado.
mide la relacin entre los dos valores. Una relacin o covarianza negativa
varianza.
individuales
de las acciones.
de la covarianza entre cada uno de los valores que de las varianzas de ellos.
11.6 Diversificacin:
mercado:
riesgo de portafolio
riesgo no
sistemtico o riesgo
Individual (var)
(cov)
diversificable (var-cov)
Var: si se mantiene un solo valor.
(CAPM)
riesgosos.
Linealidad
2.
El portafolio optimo:
3.
Confusin potencial
2.
11 .8 Equilibrio de mercado
Expectativas homogneas: todos los inversionistas poseen las mismas
estimaciones de los rendimientos esperados, de las varianzas y de las
covarianzas.
Portafolio de mercado: portafolio ponderado por el valor de mercado que
incluye todos los valores existentes.
performance will improve at both the parent company and the spun-off
business once each has the freedom to change its strategies, people and
CEOs often fear that investor will view asset divestitures (venta) as
organization.
assets will cost a company the benefits of scale, cut into the advantages of
because
draw scrutiny because they shrink the size of the parent company but, unlike
the most value for shareholders and the economy as a whole when it is owned
Being part of a large company come at a cost, many spun-off companies can
is created.
Sell or Spin?
outright. Yet spinning off these units may have tax advantages over selling
them.
strategic direction.
willing to pay a sizable premium. In the United States, a company must pay
income tax of 35% on any gain from a business but a spin-off can be
One common misperception about spin-offs is that they are quick fixes for
Three factors determine the breakeven point: the tax rate, the premium
from the sale and the tax book value of the business relative to the sale
price.
The ratio of the tax book value to the selling price is a good proxy for how
parts calculation. If they find that the sum of the parts is greater than the
profitable a business is. A highly profitable business may have a tax basis
market value of the company as currently traded, they assume the market
that is only 10% of the selling price. To break (equilibrio) even between
selling and spinning off, the company would need to receive a 46% premium
These analyses often are flawed (defectuoso), usually because the selected
on the sale. On the other hand, a low-profit business with a tax book value of
80% of the selling price would need to receive only an 8% premium to break
even.
researches
observed
changes
in
strategy
among
spun-off
Theres nothing wrong with good accounting results and rising share prices,
Metrics such as ROIC, economic profit and growth that can be linked
healthy.
metrics like EPS. Although growing companies that earn an ROIC greater
than their cost of capital generate attractive EPS growth: EPS growth can
measures the value it has created and estimates its ability (su capacidad) to
create more.
The true drives of value- growth and ROIC- are better to star measuring
measured directly, the potential for future growth and returns must be
inferred (inferido).
the value created. We use economic profit to convert ROIC into a dollar
A companys cash flow and its market value stem from its long- term growth
metric so that we can incorporate the size of the value created into
in revenues and profits and from its returns on invested capital (ROIC). A
Organize
performance
measurement
according
to
three
different
value in the future and the risks. These metrics asses what we call the
companys health.
The third set of metrics assesses the capital market performance of the
company, including the expectations factored into its share price and way
tree illustrating the connections between a companys intrinsic value and the
generic categories of health metrics: the short, medium and long term,
control. To use any metric, you must strip out the impact such factors.
$ 8 generic health metrics can ensure that it systematically explores all the
*in assessing a companys long term strategic health, specific metrics can be
important ones.
Short-term metrics
Organizational health
Explore the factors that underlie historical performance and help indicate
Metrics are also needed to determine whether a company has the people, the
whether growth and ROIC can be sustained at a given level or will probably
Measure the skills and capabilities of a company, its ability to retain its
-Capital productivity metrics: show how well a company uses its working
performance.
Medium-term metrics
as share price plus dividend yield. This approach has severe limitations, short
Indicate whether a company can maintain and improve its growth and ROIC
periods
include the metrics for its product pipeline (cartera de productos), brand
more quickly,
The better these managers perform, the more the market expects form
industry.
that of its competitors, to manage its cost over three to five years. These
to earn high TRS. This difference between a good company and a good
investment: in the short term, good companies may not be good investments
-Asset health metrics: show how well a company maintains and develops its
and viceversa.
(MVA): the difference between the market value of a companys debt and
and to identify and exploit new areas of growth. A company must periodically
public opinion and preferences) that could make business less attractive.
Besides
Historical performance isnt enough, the assessment must also address the
guarding
(proteccion)
against
threats
(amenaza),
companies
TRS
embodies
changes
in
expectations
about
the
future