Preventing Surprise

in Emergency Management
Eric Waage
Hennepin County Emergency Management

Duluth population: 89,200

In-force flood insurance policies on 19-20 June 2012: 111 (0.001%)

QUESTION

Is Preventing
Operational Surprise
an
Emergency
Management
Responsibility?

SURPRISE PREVENTION?
EM Phases (4 or 5)

EM Principles (8)

Prevention
Preparedness
Response
Recovery
Mitigation

Comprehensive
Progressive
Risk-Driven
Integrated
Collaborative
Coordinated
Flexible
Professional

SURPRISE PREVENTION?
Core Capabilities (31)

Planning
Public Info & Warning
Operational Coordination
Forensics and Attribution
Intelligence & Info Sharing
Interdiction & Disruption
Screening, Search, Detect
Access Control
Cybersecurity
Physical Protection

Risk Management
Supply Chain Integrity
Community Resilience
Vulnerability Reduction
Resilience Assessment
Threats/Hazards ID
Critical Transportation
Environmental Response
Fatality Management
Infrastructure Systems

SURPRISE PREVENTION?
Core Capabilities

(continued)

Mass Care
Natural/Cultural Resources
Mass Search and Rescue
On-Scene Security
Operational Communications
Public/Private Resources
Public Health/Medical
Situational Assessment
Economic Recovery
Health & Social Services
Housing

YES!

Predictive
Anticipatory
Future-oriented
Proactive

Is Preventing
Operational Surprise
an
Emergency
Management
Responsibility?

IDENTIFY, MONITOR & ASSESS

NFPA 1600 states that emergency management
programs shall identify hazards, monitor those
hazards, [assess] the likelihood of their occurrence,
and the vulnerability of people, property, the
environment, and the entity [program] itself to
those hazards

Oriented to the present environment

(no explicit mention of readiness for future states)

ANTICIPATE, UNDERSTAND & PREDICT

Predictable Surprise
An event that takes an individual or
group by surprise, despite prior
awareness of all the information
necessary to anticipate the events
and their consequences.
Max Bazerman
Michael Watkins

Must envision the

future environment

SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS
(SA)

SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
Level 1 Scan, Detect, Identify, Seeing
Level 2 Meaning, Relevance, Understanding
Level 3 Anticipate, Foresee, Predicting

How well can you predict the results of your actions ?

VUCA: Volitile-Uncertain-Complex-Ambiguous

COMPLEXITY

VOLATILITY

Situation has many interconnected parts and variables.

Volume and tempo of
information can overwhelm.
Improve: acquire
specialized talent and skills

The challenge is unexpected or unstable,

but not unknown, unprecedented or
difficult to understand.
Improve: redundancy and capacity

AMBIGUITY

UNCERTAINTY

Casual relationships of situation

are unknown or unclear.
Unprecedented event.

Events basic cause and effects are known.

Lack of complete information.

Improve: Experimentation,
agility and innovation

Improve: information flow, interpretation

and assessment systems

How much do you know about the situation?

More

Based on Nathan Bennet and G. James Lemoine, Harvard Business Review, JAN 2014

History is a vast
early warning system.
Norman Cousins

Regional Disaster Planning

Reference Collection
- Historical references
- Original research
- After action reviews
- Plans and policies

Ruins of the Saint Paul High Bridge

following a probable derecho on
20 August 1904 (winds 110 mph)

MnDOT
Frost (P)
ANE

Inadequate
Sensor
Zone

MnDOT
087

MIC

MnDOT
094
MnDOT
494

MSP
NWS-TC
Frost (S)

MnDOT
085

FCM
MnDOT
086

GAPS
1. Western Hennepin County w/o official sensors
2. Approaches to Hennepin not well covered
3. Narrow sensor orientation airports/interstates
4. Significant gap in frost depth sensor coverage
5. Technology gap in special heat sensor coverage

Black Bulb/WBGT Sensor

MnDOT
Frost (P)

Frost Depth Gauge P=Pavement

S=Sod
Micronet Station

ANE

Mesonet Station
MnDOT
087
HCEM
Frost (P&S)

MIC
MnDOT
094
MnDOT
494

MSP
NWS-TC
Frost (S)

MnDOT
085

FCM
MnDOT
086

HCEM Watch Leader

Situation Monitoring Station
(SMS)

HC Emergency Operations Center

(HC EOC)

Preventing Surprise
in Emergency Management
Eric Waage
Hennepin County Emergency Management