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HCMC MARKET INSIGHTS Q3 2014

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

VIETNAM ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Q3 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2013

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

6.2%

5.3%

5.0%

4.6%

5.0%

6.7%

21,246

21,246

20,036

Export (US$ Billion)

38.8

37.6

32.4

Import (US$ Billion)

40.7

37.3

34.3

FDI Registered (US$ Million)

4,330

3,518

4,439

FDI Implemented (US$ Million)

3,150

2,880

3,000

1.8

2.0

1.7

706,500

737,600

639,251

u
u
u
u
v
v

u
u
u
u
u
u
u

GDP (% y-o-y)
CPI (% y-o-y, e-o-p)
Exchange rate (USD/VND, e-o-p)

International Tourist Arrivals (Million arrivals)


Retail and Services Turnover (VND Billion)
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
Y-o-Y: year on year; Q-o-Q: quarter on quarter
E-o-p: end of period

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

MONEY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN REALTY


Real Estate Ranked Second in terms of FDI,
9M 2014

Large Invested Real Estate Projects into Southern


Realty
Projects

Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment, September 2014.

Location

US$
million

Investors

Smart
Complex

Thu
Thiem,
HCMC

2,000

Lotte
(Korea)

Vincom
Central Park

HCMC

1,500

VinGroup
(Vietnam)

Amata City
Long Thanh

Long
Thanh
District

530

Amata
(Thailand)

Samsung

HCMC

1,000

Samsung
(Korea)

Ascendas

HCMC

130

Ascendas
(Singapore)

Source: Stockbiz, September 2014.

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

PORTS IN HCMC REPLACED BY MIXED-USE


PROJECTS

1 Saigon New Port/Central Park


Relocated to Cat Lai Port (2008)
and relocating to Cai Mep Port
Operation stopped: May 2015
Converting to mixed-use projects
Partnered with Vingroup

1 Taken in September 2014.

3
2

2 Khanh Hoi - Nha Rong Port


To be converted in Q1 2016.
Partnered with Vingroup
3 Ba Son Shipyard
Waiting for approval on 1/500 plan
Ba Son site will be auctioned.
4

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RALLY STOCK MARKET


Realty Stocks are Following Closely HCMC Market
VNIndex: 640

614

VNIndex:514

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Realty stocks

Source: Stockbiz, FPTS.


5

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CBRE DASHBOARD PRODUCED MONTHLY


RE Ho l d i ng & De ve l o p m e nt
Ye ar

Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2012
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2013
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

Inde x

RE S erv i c e

HCM C N e w La unch

Inde x
41.20
45.60
44.30
47.20
44.80
45.00
45.20
43.60
45.60
40.52
39.50
37.80
41.76
41.90
46.20
42.21
45.39
42.19
41.30
41.49
41.20
43.37
44.85
45.66
49.17
53.23
58.70
53.50
52.44
51.16
55.10
55.89
53.32

HCM
48.9
54.4
64.4
100.0
96.7
72.2
56.7
54.4
44.4
37.8
25.6
26.7
22.4
24.4
27.8
31.1
26.6
24.3
23.8
21.1
19.8
22.0
32.2
42.0
38.5
52.4
60.0
48.3
49.5
48.6
63.3
61.1
54.0

0
0
648
0
404
0
417
799
330
528
155
207
132
0
277
0
165
895
301
885
1061
391
286
1451
312
0
410
574
714
775
916
356
1381

HN N ew La unc h
M onth
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

HN
920
356
262
616
353
1494
901
300
1514
2397
340
220
772
779
584
134
0
625
622
234
870
1538
470
363
419
200
1000
500
1000
50
928
464
500

Source: Stockbiz, CBRE Vietnam.


6

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

INTEREST RATES
Lower Lending Rates
25%

Some banks offers lending rates of 7.5%


- 8.5% for the first few months only.

Interest rate

20%
15%

13.1%*

10%
6.8%**

5%
0%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep
2011

2012

2013

Deposit rate (1 year term)

2014

Lending rate

(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, applied for home loan only. However, the back-dated numbers are the
average rate which was announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks . The average lending rate is for reference
only.
(**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate of a sample of ten banks in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be
tracked backwards.
Source: Smartfinance.
7

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CREDIT GROWTH
Target for 2014
Reported Number in August 2014

By the end of August 2014, credit to real estate market has


expanded 9.85% against the beginning of this year, higher
than the credit growth of the whole economy (5.82%) and
other sectors.
Source: State Bank of Vietnam, August 2014.

Poor credit growth is more about sentiment than a real problem.

*All the above articles were retrieved in September 2014.

Pham Hong Hai, Head of Global Banking at HSBC, HCMC


8

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RECOVERING CONSUMER CONFIDENCE


Positively Correlated with Stock Market
ANZ Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence
Index

Expectation of Vietnam economic condition

Expectation of personal family financially


condition
Source: ANZ - Roy Morgan

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

INFRASTRUCTURE - HCMC
Progress of Metro Line No. 1

4 Section on Dien Bien Phu Str., near Saigon Bridge


5

3
Sections in District 2

Section on Nguyen Huu Canh Str., near Van Thanh


Expected completion date: January 23, 2017

Opera House

2
1

10

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

2 Section of Metro Line #1 from Thai Van Lung Str. to Ton Duc Thang Str.

RESIDENTIAL MARKET
HCMC Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


A Busy Ghost Months Quarter

Active Launches even


during ghost month

New launches from 9


projects (3,104 units)

Most of new launches are


from affordable and highend segments

Most of re-launches are


affordable: Giai Viet, Saigon
Town, Topaz Garden, 27
Truong Chinh

Vista Verde (T1,T2) - CapitaLand


695 units, $1,442-1,632/sm
Green Valley (Blk B) PMH
108 units, $1,420-1,610/sm

Lexington (Blk D) NovaLand


276 units, $1,350-1,410/sm

Lucky Palace NovaLand


356 units, $1,179-1,368/sm

SaigonLand Apt. Hoan Cau


144 units, $1,132-1,226/sm
12

Sunview Town (Saphire) Dat Xanh


MARKET
INSIGHTS | Q3 2014
330CBRE
units,
$650-700/sm

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


New Launches in Q3 2014
8X Plus

Tropic Garden A2

Sunview Town - Sapphire

District 12, 608 units


by Viet Phat Hung Thinh
@ from $630 - $669/sm

District 2, 207 units


by NovaLand
@ $1,389 - $1,636/sm

Thu Duc, 330 units


by Dat Xanh
@ $650 $700/sm

Saigonland Apartment
Binh Thanh, 144 units
by Hoan Cau
@ $1,1132 1,226/sm

Vista Verde T1&T2


Ehome 3 (A1 - A2)

District 2, 695 units


by Capitaland + Thien Duc
Co., Ltd.
@ $1,442 - 1,1,632/sm

Binh Tan, 380 units


by Nam Long
@ from $650 - $850/sm

Lucky Palace

Lexington Residence
Block D

District 6, 356 units


by NovaLand
@ from $1,179 - 1,368/sm

District 2, 276 units


by NovaLand
@ $1,351 - 1,410/sm

Green Valley B
District 7, 108 units
by Phu My Hung
CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS
@ $1,420 - 1,610/sm

13

| Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Launch supply in 9 months 2014 surpassed whole year 2013
New Launches by Year

25,000

Unit

20,000
15,000

8,393 units
in 9 months

10,000
5,000
0

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

YTD 2014

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

14

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Impressive Sales Performance
Sales Performance of New Launches, Units

~ 50% of new launches


sold in the quarter

25% sold

25% sold

43% sold

3,104 units in Q3 2014

High-end

1
Mid-end

Affordable

8,393 units in 9M 2014

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


15

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


The Rise of Under planning Developments

Metropolis Thao Dien - District 2


3,000 units
Developer: Thao Dien Investment

Vinhomes Central Park - Binh Thanh


10,000 units
Developer: VinGroup

Lucky Palace - District 6


356 units
Developer: NovaLand

Golf Park - District 9


90 townhouses + 5 villas
Developer: NovaLand

La Astoria - District 2
Condos + Townhouses
Developer: An Gia Hung

Topaz City - P1 - District 8


273 units
Developer: Van Thai

16

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Busy Activities in CBD

SG Waterfront D. 1
By Canh Hung Hai Thanh

C.T Plaza Saigon D. 1


By C.T Group

Saigon Plaza D. 1
By Quoc Cuong Gia Lai

The One D. 1
By Bitexco

Lavenue Crown D. 1
By May Flower

Eximbank Tower D. 1
By EximLand

Nguyen Dinh Chieu D. 1


By undisclosed developer

Leman C.T Plaza D. 3


by C.T Group

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

17

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Prices Start Increasing
40%

Primary price changes: Convergent

30%
20%
10%
0%
-10% 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-20%
-30%

Secondary price changes: Divergent

6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%

2011

2012

2013

-4%
-6%

Luxury

High-end

Mid-end

Affordable

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


18

2014
- Affordable: <US$800 psm
- Mid-end: US$800 1,500 psm
- High-end: US$1,500 - $3,000 psm
- Luxury: >US$3,000 psm
CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Unit Size - Smaller
Condominium Unit Size Change (HCMC)

Second tier

First tier

Before 2012

300 sm

125 sm

110 sm

65 sm

After 2012 55 sm

90 sm

110 sm

250 sm

Before 2012 50 sm

91 sm

110 sm

250 sm

After 2012 48 sm 75 sm

Unit sizes reduced


notably in the Luxury
and High-end
segments

150 sm

90 sm

1BR

2BR

3BR

4BR+

(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


19

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Unit Type Higher Proportion of 1-2 bedroom units

Second tier

First tier

Condominium Unit Type Change (HCMC)

Before 2012 3%

After 2012

Before 2012

After 2012

35%

12%

45%

45%

7%

28%

59%

9%

2BR

27%
3BR

Proportion of 1BR
and 2BR types
increased
significantly

14%

27%

63%
1BR

16%

7%

1%

4BR+

(*): First tier: Luxury and high-end products; Second tier: Mid-end and affordable products

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


20

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Positioning Shift to Affordable Segment - HCMC
Total Launched Unit* (HCMC)

1%

1%
27%

37%

Luxury

24%

High-end

31%
Mid-end
48%

31%

Affordable

After 2010

Before 2010

(*): Accumulative launches since 1999, including both completion and under construction units, sold and unsold units.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.
21

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Transactions on the Rise
Sold Unit by Quarter and by Segment, HCMC
3,500
3,000
Sold unit

2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2012
Luxury

Q3

Q4

2013
High-end

Mid-end

Q1

Q2

Q3

2014
Affordable

Sales volume in Q3 continued to increase despite the ghost month


High-end and affordable made up the largest proportions.
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.
22

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Unsold Unit Diminishing
Unsold Unit by Year and by Segment, HCMC
21,000
18,000

Unit

15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
0
2011

2012
Luxury

2013

High-end

Mid-end

YTD 2014
Affordable

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

23

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


High rental yield encouraging investors
Rental yield at selected high-end projects
8.2%
8.1%

8.0%

8.0%

7.8%

7.8%

7.6%

7.7%
7.5%

7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.0%
2012

2013
District 7

YTD
2014
Q2 2014

District 2

(*) Selected projects:


District 7: Sunrise City, Sky Garden, Panorama;
District 2: Xi Riverview Palace, The Estella, The Vista
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
24

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Future Launches in the next 6 Months
Future Launches in the Next 6 Months

Scenic Valley D2, E1*


District 7
270 units
Expected price: N/A psm
Developer: Phu My Hung

Docklands Saigon
District 7
365 units
Expected price: N/A
Developer: Paujar

TOPAZ CITY P1
District 8
273 units
Expected price: US$700 psm
Developer: Van Thai

Ehome 6
District 9
500 units
Expected price: N/A psm
Developer: Nam Long

SUNVIEW TOWN A3
Thu Duc
330 units
Expected price: ~US$620 psm
Developer: Dat Xanh Group
25

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

CONDOMINIUMS FOR SALE


Outlook for HCMC
More stock expected to be released till year-end to capture slowly revived
purchase momentum

Increasing sales volume pushing prices up.

Buy-to-let investors back to the market.

The East of HCMC continues to be the most sought-after area thanks to


improving infrastructure.

26

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

COMMERCIAL MARKETS
HCMC Q3 2014

OFFICE
Limited New Supply
AN PHU PLAZA

New Supply by Year, HCMC

EMPRESS TOWER

TIMES SQUARE

350

GFA (000 sm)

300
250
200
PRESIDENT PLACE

150

SAIGON ARIPORT
PLAZA

PICO SAIGON
PLAZA

LIM TOWER

100
50
0
MB SUNNY TOWER

Grade A

Grade B

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

28

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Rent Up, Vacancy Down
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
GRADE B

VACANCY RATE
(%)

GRADE A

Q3

Q3

2014 Q2

2014 Q2

Q1

Q1

Q4

Q4

2013

2012

2011

GRADE A

GRADE B

Q3

2013

Q2

Q3
Q2

Q1

Q1

Q4

Q4

Q3

2012

Q2

Q3
Q2

Q1

Q1

Q4

Q4

Q3

2011

Q2
Q1

Q3
Q2
Q1

$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5

$0 $0

$5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

29

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
APAC Rental Growth
Better than expected

20%

In line with expectations

Lagging behind expectations

15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%

Rental Growth, H1 2014

Brisbane

Mumbai

Hanoi

Melbourne

Hong Kong

Tokyo

Sydney

Beijing

Guangzhou

Shanghai

Bangkok

Auckland

Seoul

Taipei

Kuala Lumpur

New Delhi

Ho Chi Minh City

Singapore

Manila

-10%

* 2014
Forecast Rental Growth,

(*) Forecasted at the end of 2013


Source: CBRE Research, August 2014.

30

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Very Restricted New Supply -> Limited Leasing Options
Grade A & B Net Absorption, Q3 2014
50,000

NLA (sm)

40,000

Net absorption per


quarter 3-year average

30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2011

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2012

Q3

Q4

2013

Grade A

Q1

Q2

Q3

2014

Grade B

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

31

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Tenant Categories
By Industry, Q3 2014

By Nationality, Q3 2014
Manufacturing

29%

US

6%

19%

6%

Vietnam

7%

Hong Kong

Logistic
Technology/Electronic

7% 10%

Europe

29%

Education
Sourcing

6%

16%

Finance & Consulting Services

23%

19%

Japan

23%

Others

Others

By Size
2013

23%

37%

30%

<100 sm

10%

100-300 sm
YTD 2014

17%
0%

10%

35%
20%

30%

40%

28%
50%

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


Number is calculated based on CBREs enquiries only

60%

32

70%

19%
80%

90%

300-1000 sm
100%

>1000 sm

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Tenant Preferences
2%

District 1

41%

District 3
42%

District 7 and Tan Binh

2014

9%

17%
3%

15%

58%

18%
2012
Decentralisation trend to new,
good quality non-CBD
buildings

15%

5%

75%

Others

2013
Rents softening in centralised
areas => opportunities to
upgrade or relocate to core
CBD

Limited centralised supply


resulting in decentralisation
and consolidation outside
CBD

The percentage is based on net absorption recorded in each district per year
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

33

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Future Supply

VIETTEL OFFICE & TRADE


CENTER
285 Cach Mang Thang Tam, D10
GFA: 65,971 sm

LIM TOWER 2
158 Vo Van Tan, D3
GFA: 20,467 sm
Estimated completion:
Q1/2015

Estimated completion: Q2/2015


VIETCOMBANK TOWER
5 Melinh Square, D1
GFA: 55,000 sm
Estimated completion: Q2/2015

34

SSG TOWER
561A Dien Bien Phu St, Ward 25,
Binh Thanh.
GFA: 37,434 sm
Estimated completion: Q3/2015

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
HCMC Future Supply
New Supply by Year, HCMC

GFA (sm)

2,000,000

Total 332,538 sm GFA added

1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2012

2013

2014

2015f

Grade B

2016f

2017f

Grade A

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

Limited supply in the last quarter of 2014


3 large projects completed in 2015, most of which are pre-committed or partially
owner occupied
Total supply is projected to reach 1.4 mil sqm by Q4/2015
35

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

OFFICE
Outlook for HCMC
Average rent remain stable till the end of the year.

The vacancy rate will fluctuate (slightly) but still on an overall downward
trend.
Steady demand for office spaces on the back of positive market condition.
Budget is still the matter.
Limited new supply will come from large scale, mixed use projects and from
those projects developed partly for owner- occupation.

36

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
Saigon Tax Trade Center to a Iconic Mixed-Use Development
Expect to open in 2018
40-storey skyscraper
Shopping centre:
5 floors + 1.5 basements

Retail GFA: 40,159 sm

Officially closed in
September 25, 2014

37

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
New Openings
New Openings by Trade, Q3 2014
100%

* Opens a 1,200 sm
flagship store in Vincom
Center B in Sept 2014

% in terms of NLA, sm

80%
60%

* Open soon in Crescent Mall


in November 2014

40%
20%
0%
Q2 2014

Others
Kids
F&B

Q3 2014
Home dcor
Cosmetics
Fashion & Accessories

* 1st store in HCMC Vietnam


in Dong Khoi Street, District
1, in Q3 2014.

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


38

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
Rent and Occupancy Improved in CBD
AVERAGE ASKING RENT
(US$/sm/month)
NON-CBD

VACANCY RATE
(%)

CBD
Net absorption (NLA, sm)

Q3
2014 Q2
Q1
Q4
2013

Q3
Q2
Q1
Q4

2012

60,000

20%

40,000

14%

20,000

8%

2%
2012

Q3
Q2

2013

2014

(20,000)

-4%

Q1
110 90 70 50 30 30 50 70 90 110

Net Absorption (sm)

Vacancy Rate (%)

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.


39

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
Future Supply
Expect to Complete/ Open in 2014 - 2015

Sunrise City Phase 2


District 7
GFA: 23,739 sm
4 floors
Topped out

Thao Dien Pearl


District 2
GFA: 20,400 sm
3 floors
Completed. Leasing

40

SC VivoCity
District 7
GFA: 72,000 sm
1 basement, 5 floors
Fitting out. Leasing.

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
Future Supply
Expect to Complete/ Open in 2014 - 2015

Lim Tower 2
District 3
GFA: 6,519 sm
5 floors
Underconstruction.

Viettel Office &


Trade Center
District 10
GFA: 15,025 sm
4 floors
Underconstruction.
Leasing.

Lman CT Plaza
District 3
GFA: 12,000 sm
6 floors
Underconstruction.
Parkson

SSG Tower
Binh Thanh District
GFA: 20,500 sm
6 floors
Under-construction.

41

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
APAC Development Pipeline
Development Pipeline, Q2 2014
2015

1,800

2014

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400

42

Wellington

Auckland

Taipei

Perth

Hong Kong

Adelaide

Mumbai

Brisbane

Jakarta

Melbourne

Ho Chi Minh City

Source: CBRE Research Q2 2014.

Manila

Singapore

Sydney

Shanghai

Guangzhou

Hanoi

Shenzhen

New Delhi

Kuala Lumpur

Beijing

Bangkok

200
Tokyo

Development Pipeline (000 sm)

2,000

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

RETAIL
Outlook for HCMC
F&B and supermarket are necessary elements in any modern shopping
center

Street front shops and boutiques still maintain their uniqueness and
attractiveness

Retail space in the CBD is in high demand in spite of high rents due to
big retailers preferences, particularly new entries.

Luxury shopping centers should create better tenant mix and offer more
professional services to serve sophisticated and discerning customers.

43

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Vacancy Rate/Asking Rent
Achieved Rent 2-3 bedrooms (US$/month)
$4,100

$2,600

Rents (US$/month)

Rents (US$/month)

Achieved Rent 1 bedroom (US$/month)


$2,400

$3,600

$2,200
$2,000

$3,100

$1,800
$1,600

$2,600

Q4/2013 Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014


Grade A 1BR
Grade B 1BR

Q4/2013 Q1/2014 Q2/2014 Q3/2014


Grade A 2-3BR

Grade B 2-3BR

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

Both grades stopped the downwards trend in pricing with minor improvement
(up 0.5% for Grade A and 0.3% for Grade B) due to better absorption.

Larger units tended to revise the rent down in order to retain tenants.

44

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Vacancy Rate/Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate (%)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2012

2013

Current Vacancy (%)

2014
Long-term Average

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014.

Q3 market-wide vacancy matched the long-term average line.

45

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Occupiers Sentiments
CBRE Enquiries by Location

9M 2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
0%
20%
District 1
District 7

40%
60%
District 2
Binh Thanh

46

80%
100%
District 3
Others

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Occupiers Sentiments
CBRE Enquiries by Housing Budget
Q3/2014
Q2/2014
Q1/2014
Q4/2013
Q3/2013
Q2/2013
Q1/2013
0%
20%
US$0 -$1000
US$4000 - $6000

40%
60%
US$1000 - $2000
US$6000+

80%
100%
US$2000 - $4000

Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q3 2014, based on CBREs enquiries.

Emergence of deep-pocket enquiries (US$6,000 - $10,000),


up 2.5 times q-o-q.

47

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

48

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

SERVICED APARTMENTS
Buy to let trend
In order to attract more buyers, developers of newly
built building in Hanoi are also offering more
incentives, including being prepared to take on newlybought apartments and putting them out to lease.
Vietnam Investment Review

SERVICED APARTMENT
Outlook for HCMC
Average rent will remain flat

The vacancy rate will fluctuate slightly due to limited major new supply

Shift from Asian tenants back to the Westerners.


The first sign of deep-pocket tenants in the last 3 years.
Increasingly fierce competition from the buy-to-let alternatives and a possible
drop in number of expatriates working in HCMC.

49

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

STORY ON THE MARKET, Q2 2014

KHU T D N
DEVELOPMENT SITE

AEON BINH TAN

HANOI TIMES TOWER(*)

INDOCHINE PARK TOWER

Address: International Hi-tech

Address: Van Phu, Ha Dong, Hanoi

Address: 1 Le Quy Don, D1, HCMC

Scale: 1.3 ha

Scale: 55 units serviced apartments

Amount: $15.4 million

Price: $14.3 million

Investor/Lender: Ocean Bank

Seller: Mulpha International Bhd

Owner: Petro Vietnam

Buyer: Lemongrass Master Fund

Healthcare Park, Binh Tan, HCMC


Scale: 4.7 ha
Price: $8.7 million
Seller: Aseana Properties JV Hoa Lam
Buyer: Aeon Mall

*Refinancing transaction

Source: RCA, retrieved July 1, 2014

50

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

STORY ON THE MARKET, Q3 2014


DIAMOND PLAZA

CORNER STONE

THE ESTELLA

METRO CASH & CARRY

Location: HCMC

Location: Hanoi

Location: HCMC

Location: Vietnam

Seller: POSCO

Seller: VIB

Seller: Tien Phuoc

Seller: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam

Buyer: Lotte Shopping

Buyer: Daibiru

Buyer: Keppel Land

Buyer: Berli Jucker

Property type: Retail

Property type: Office

Property type: Dev. Site

Property type: Retail

Amount: n/a

Amount: $60.1 million

Amount: $11.46 million

Amount: $877 million

NBB GARDEN III

NBB GARDEN II

CITY GATE TOWERS

OCEAN MART

Location: HCMC

Location: HCMC

Location: HCMC

Location: Vietnam

Seller: NBB

Seller: NBB

Owner: NBB

Owner: Ocean Group

Buyer: CREED

Buyer: CREED

Refinanciar: CREED

Buyer: Vingroup

Property type: Dev. Site

Property type: Dev. Site

Property type: Dev. Site

Property type: Retail

Amount: $26.1 million

Amount: n/a

Amount: $59.2 million

Source: RCA, retrieved September 29, 2014 and newspapers.


51

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

INVESTMENT
Thai Groups Expand Business in Vietnam

METRO CASH & CARRY

Location: Vietnam
Seller: Metro Cash & Carry Vietnam
Buyer: Berli Jucker
Property type: Retail
Amount: $877 million

52

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

INVESTMENT
Vietnam keeps appealing to Korean investors
BUYERS

SELLERS

Taiwan
Singapore 2%

Domestic

Thailand
4%

Hong Kong

8%

Japan

Offshore
4%

Korea
Malaysia

Korea
13%

Netherlands
Domestic
63%

Japan
6%

Offshore
Singapore
(blank)
Taiwan

Netherlands
5%
Malaysia
3%

Offshore
8%

Korea
13%
Domestic
54%

Japan
2%
Hong Kong
15%

Thailand
Data recorded during the period of 2011- YTD 2014
Source: RCA, retrieved Sep 2014

53

CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | Q3 2014

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For more information regarding this presentation please contact:


CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd.
Research & Consulting
T +84 8 3824 6125
F +84 8 3823 8418
Email.research.vietnam@cbre.com
2014 CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CBRE (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the
information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other
sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with
careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is
designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

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