NEURAL NETWORKS APPLIED TO AUTOMATIC ESTIMATION

OF NETWORKS PERFORMANCE
Merlo, G. 1, Britos, P. 2, Rossi, B. 2 & Garca Martnez R.2

1.- University of Buenos Aires 2.- Buenos Aires Institute of Technology

Madero 399. (1106) Buenos Aires. ARGENTINA
e-mail: rgm@itba.edu.ar
its modelization by means of queueing theory. The
reason for this is not the existence of a mathematical
restriction, but the growing complexity of the
associated modelization. On the other hand, even
though an adecuate model could be achieved, the
development time would be unreasonable.
For the former reasons, this study analyzes the
solution to the problem posed by means of a
backpropagation neural network. This neural net will
be trained based on statistical data of the behaviour of
an existing communication network, comparing at the
end of the work the results obtained in reality, to the
estimations derived from a simple mathematical, to the
estimations given by the neural network.

KEYWORDS: neural networks - estimation distributed parameter systems - intelligent control.

Abstract
The present study analizes the usage of
backpropagation neural networks for the determination
of average response time of an SNA network.
In order to evaluate the method, this was applied to
an existent SNA telecommunications network, to
which measurements of response time were taken
against users load. Moreover, a backpropagation neural
network was implemented in PASCAL programming
language, asumming the total number of users as
inputs (in binary state representation indicating
whether they are active 1 or inactive 0 ), and
giving the estimated response time as output of the
network. It is beyond the scope of the present article to
give a detailed description of a backpropagation neural
network algorithm and its implementation, for which
references are included. We asumme the reader is
familiarized with neural networks techniques, and we
emphasize on its practical utilization and the
convenience of its usage in the determination of
communication parameters in a computers network
(specifically, an SNA network in the present case).
At the same time, we modelized the SNA response
time behaviour based on mathematical expresions
taken from queueing theory, in order to evaluate and
contrast both response time estimations, the one
achieved by neural networks usage and the one from
classical mathematical models.
Finally, we detail the conclusions of the study, in
where we analyze the convenience of the usage of each
model, with its pros and cons.

2. Description of the telecommunications

network under analysis.
2.1. Technical characteristics
It consists of an SNA network, with the topology
drawn in figure 1.
Figure 1. Topology of the SNA network under
study.

Token Ring
Control Unit

Workstations

Desktop computer
Desktop computer

Satellite

Desktop computer
Desktop computer
Satellite

Satellite Dish

Satellite Dish

Communication
Controller

Communication
Controller

Desktop computer
Desktop computer

ame

Desktop computer
Microwave

Radio Tower

Desktop computer

Radio Tower

1. Introduction
The determination of response times in a remote
telecommunicactions network is inherently a queue
problem. For this reason, in the case of a simple
network with a small number of traffic variables, the
average response time of a terminal could be calculated
by means of mathematical expressions from the
queueing theory.
However, in reality this does not happen. In a
corporative network with hundreds of terminals where
users access to different types of applications with
their corresponding activities times, and where there
exist alternative communication links, each with their
characteristical resonse time it becomes impractical

Desktop computer
Desktop computer

The network consists of aproximately 300 stations

connected to a remote host through teleprocess
equipment and two different communication links:
satelite and microwave.
The work stations are connected to SNA Control
Units, which are themselves connected to the ring.
Each and every station has the possibility of
managing two sessions with the host simultaneously,
allowing the total sessions to be extended to a
maximum of twice the number of terminals. Each
Control Units handles 64 stations, arranged in eight
groups of eight stations each ( [1], [2] ).

The Control devices present the functionality of

communication administrators between the ring
network and the remote host ( [1], [2] ).
The activities determined by the work stations can
be classified in three fundamental types: Querys,
Electronic mail (e-mail) and programmation activities.

2.2. Statistical Behaviour

In order to have a quantification of the network
under study, we proceeded to measure the real system.
This measures were taken using a software product
used to monitor systems activity levels, CPU and
telecommunications resource usage, which allowd us
to the take the following values:

diminishing the response time performance, or when

the CPU is working at a high percentage of usage, so
that additional processing could affect the overall
performance.
Figure 2 represents a summary of the
measurements of response times of the communication
network taken from the real network, as a function of
the active users in it.
Figure 2. Time Response measurements vs. Active
users in the real network.
1,8

1,6

1,4

1,2

Inbound and outbound traffic in the links.

Average size of the packets in both directions of
the link.
Response times due exclusivelly to the
telecommunicactions network..
Average host loads and response times due
exclusivelly to a host.

0,8

Response Time (seconds)

0,6

0,4

0,2

0
0

14 21

28 35 42

49 56 63 70

77 86 104 112 120 128 136 145 152 160 168 175 182 190 198 205 213 220 229 237 246 255 264 272 280 288
Active Users

Measures were taken in three different random

moments, during the tipical activities hours, in order to
achieve the best possible quantification of the real
situation.
It is important to remark the difficulties associated
to the process of measuring the statistical samples that
represent the behaviour of the telecommunication
network. Basically, this is due to two main reasons:
security and resource consumption.
Security:
The monitoring software used presents not only the
feature of measuring response times, but also the
monitoring of information packets and its contents,
among other features. From the point of view of
systems auditor to which medium to big enterprises
are usually subjected this is not an advisable practise,
and is usually minimized its use (owing to the fact that
critical and restricted information could be seen with
this software).
On the other hand, only one sampling with the
software wouldnt be representative at all. The more
samples we take, the more representative and accurate
the statitics would be.
Because of the previous reasons, it becomes a
difficult task to take the necessary samples without
entering in conflict with the Security Staff of the
entreprise.

Resource consumption:
Measuring systems like this are not transparent to
the hole communication system, in the sense that it
usually requires the allocation of resources such as
CPU processing time, bandwidth, among other
resources. Hence, it is recommended not to measure at
peak hours, when the measuring system could help to
cause the saturation of the communication channel,

3. Response time of communication

network
estimations
using
Neural
Networks.
3.1. General System Description
The systems presents the possibility of estimating
the average response time in workstations, due
exclusivelly to the SNA telecommunications network.
This estimation is achieved by providing the neural
networks with information about the total active users
in the network at the time of estimation.

3.2. Input an output data

The system present the scheme showed in figure 3.
As specified previously, each control unit handles 8
groups of 8 workstations each, giving a total of 64
stations per control unit. Since it is a usual practise to
habilitate 8 workstations at the same time (to cover
different departamental needs), the inputs to the neural
networks will be taken in a group of 8 workstations per
input line.

8users

input Nr. 1

8users

input Nr. 2

8users

input Nr. 3

8users

input Nr. 4

8users

input Nr. 5

8users

input Nr. 6

8users

input Nr. 7

8users

0.2- 0.3sec.

input Nr. 8

input Nr. 1

8users

input Nr. 2

8users

input Nr. 3

8users

input Nr. 4

8users

input Nr. 5

8users

input Nr. 6

8users

input Nr. 7

8users

input Nr. 8

Output 2

Input 2
Hidden
Unit 2

0.3- 0.4sec.

ResponseTime
Range

Output 1
Hidden
Unit 1

0.1- 0.2sec.

Control Unit 1

.
.
.

8users

Input 1

0- 0.1sec.

0.4- 0.5sec.
0.5- 0.6sec.

Hidden
Unit N

0.6- 0.7sec.
Input 40

Output 10

0.7- 0.8sec.

Control Unit 5

HiddenLayer

0.8- 0.9sec.
0.9- 1.0sec.

Figure 3. Detail of inputs and outputs on the neural

network
The input will be valued as 1 in case there are 8
active users, and 0 on the contrary. Moreover, it will be
valued one if at least there is 1 active user in the group.
For example, in case of having 24 active users, the
first 3 inputs of the neural networks would be in 1, and
the rest 0. In the case of 40 users, 5 inputs would be
valued 1, the rest 0. In the situation of having a total
number of active users non-multiple of 8, the inputs
will be set to 1 by excess (e.g., in the case of 20 active
users, 3 inputs will be set to 1, the rest to 0).
The output will be presented as a 1 set in the most
probable range representing the response time at the
moment of estimation. For instance, in case the
response time for a specified number of active users in
the SNA network were 0.35 sec., the fourth output of
the neural networks would be set to 1, and the rest to 0
(refer to figure 3).

Figure 4. Neural Network scheme implemented in

Pascal programming language.
As showed on figure 4, each layer is built up by a
list of nodes, each of them representing a neural
element. The expressions of the algorithm, its details
and the training steps are the classical for a
backpropagation neural networks ([3], [4] and [5]).

3.4. Training Phase

To train the system, measurements of the real
network were taken as the values of the training set.
During the training, information about the active users
was provided to the neural networks, contrasting the
output achieved with the real value measured, and
backpropagating the error. The total training was made
with 387 samples, due to the security and resource
limitationes posed formerly.

3.5. Simulations Results

Once the network was trained, its functionality was
verified for the range of 0 to 300 active users,
obtaining the results depicted in figure 5.
0,8

0,7

3.3. Intelligent System Architecture

0,6

The software module is written in Pascal. Through

the application of lists, we built a structure of a
backpropagation neural network, depicted in figure 4.

0,5

0,4

0,3
Time Response (seconds)

0,2

0,1

0
0

7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 86 104 112 120 128 136 145 152 160 168 175 182 190 198 205 213 220 229 237 246 255 264 272 280 288
Active Users

Figure 5. Time Response vs. active users estimated

with a backpropagation neural network.

4. Response time of communication

network estimations using Queueing
Theory.

4.1. Mathematical model description.

0,078

For the mathematical evaluation of the response

time, we took the classical queue model, and the
following hipothesis:

Infinite Buffer
Both and of a Poisson distribution
2 output channels (simultaneous sessions running
in the mainframe)
both channels with the same
Stationary process

0,076

0,074

0,072

Response Time (seconds)

0,07

0,068

0,066
0

The equations of the system are the following:

=/
Po =

/ n! ) +

1
/(( M 1)!( M ))

L=

Po
+
( M 1)!( M ) 2
M

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240 260 280

Active Users

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

Figure 7. Time Response vs. active users estimated

with classic mathematical model from queueing
theory.

5. Method comparison
In order to compare the overall tendencies of the
three sets of results, we present them in an unique
picture, figure 8.
1,8

M Po
Lc =
( M 1)!( M ) 2
Wc = Lc /
W = Wc + 1 /

1,6

1,4

Response Time (seconds)

1,2

1
Real values
Neural Networks
Mathematical Model

0,8

0,6

Channel Speed

Data Arrival Rate

(bits/second)

0,4

0,2

Channel Speed

28
8

27
2

25
5

23
7

22
0

20
5

19
0

17
5

16
0

14
5

12
8

86

11
2

70

56

From the comparison between the response time

estimated by the neural network and by the
mathematical formulas, against the real measurements,
we can notice that:
1.

a.

Figure 6. Mathematical queueing model sheme [6],

[7].

b.

The results achieved with the mathematical model

are the ones depicted in figure 7. The behaviour is the
one corresponding to a slightly exponencial increasing
time response with increasing active users.

42

Figure 8. Comparison between classic mathematical

methods and neural networks to real
measurements.

(bits/second)

4.2. Estimation Results

28

Active Users

(bits/second)
Buffer
3745

14

0
0

Being,
Po :
Probability of non-existing bits in the system
(n can take values from 0 to 2)
L:
Average quantities of bits in the system
Lc:
Average quantity of bits in the queue, waiting
channel attention.
Wc:
Average permanence time of each bit in the
queue.
W:
Average permanence time of each bit in the
system.
The following picture shows the scheme of this
mathematical model.
Sessions ( Attention Channels)

The utilization of simple mathematical formulas

does not provide a satisfactory result. The
resulting curve presents values well below the
actual real measurement, due mainly to the
following reasons:
The model does not take into account the
differences between different links due to delays.
It can be shown that under medium to heavy load
conditions the overall response of the set of links
is slower than the reponse of a unique link.
The fact that the real communication in the
network is a connection oriented one is not
considered in the model, in which case all the
considerations about the quantification of the
communication in form of packets, the
retransmissions and information flow control to
keep the sessions alive are excluded from the
mathematical formulas.

c.

Buffers Read/Write times are not considered.

These are some of the relevant aspects that makes

the mathematical model of queueing theory a rather
simple one to be applied in this case. More complex
models could be developed in order to take into
account other relevant variables of the comunication
process, turning the task of estimation almost
pharaonic and cost-ineffective.
1.

a.

b.

c.

d.

The neural network results are more realistic, in

the sense that the average square error is much
smaller compared to the mathematical modelling
case. We could observe in this model that:
In most of the cases, the outputs of the neural
networks were not a unique 1 in only one output
line and 0s for the rest of them, but several
outputs near 1 and others near the 0 value. To
avoid this determination problem, the nearest
output to 1 was rounded to 1, taking the remaining
outputs as 0s. By this definition, the average
response time range was perfectly defined.
The achieved results varied according to the
number of hidden units in the neural networks. In
some cases 1 or 2 units the results werent
satisfactory at all.
The Average Square Error value used as the
threshold to determine the end of the training
phase also affects the performance of the neural
network in the determination of the response time.
The more sets of values we included in the
training phase, the better the estimation of the
neural network.

6. Conclusion
From the facts exposed formerly, we can conclude
that:
1.

The mathematical models used have to be complex

enough and consider the necessary variables in
order to achieve a satisfactory estimation. Since
the complexity of the model could turn
development time extremelly long, this solution is
far from being a cost-effective one.

2.

a.
b.
c.

The usage of neural networks results in a good

approximation to reality. Nevertheless, it requires
a carefull training and test with different
configurations, which drives the following
drawbacks:
Long training phase
CPU consumption while monitoring
Non-recommended operations from the point of
view of systems security, when implemented in
real communication networks providing service in
an enterprise.

There is a final aspect that we must consider.

Traffic load in a real network is usually a dynamic
variable that varies according to type of traffic, time of
the day, applications started by users, etc. These facts
can drive the need to re-train the neural network after a
short period of time, with all the effort it means.
Hence, to solve this problems additional variables
should be included as parameters in the neural network
model so that it becomes more independent of the
dynamics of the networks, providing a good estimation
at all times.
Finally, even though both methods (the
mathematical and the neural) can be improved, in their
simplest expression the backpropagation neural
network gives a better estimation than the classic
queueing theory mathematical model.

References
[1]. Sackett, G. Introduction to SNA Networking. J.
Ranade IBM Series, 1989.
[2]. Sackett, G. Advanced SNA Networking . J.
Ranade IBM Series, 1991.
[3]. Freeman, J., Skapura, D. Neural Networks.
Addison-Wesley, 1993.
[4]. Kosko, Bart. Neural Networks and Fuzzy
Systems. Prentice-Hall, 1992.
[5]. Clifford Lau. Neural Networks. IEEE Press,
1992.
[6]. Schwartz, M. Telecommunication Networks.
Addison-Wesley, 1998.
[7]. King, P. Computer and Communication System
Performance Modelling. Prentice Hall, 1990.