HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

FOR INDUSTRIAL FATALITIES

A case of Kullu, Himachal Pradesh
Abstract
Hereby in this report a hypothetical study has been taken for studying effects of chemical
hazards upon the city of Kullu.

Adwitiya Patro
PP0006913

Overview
This study is about analyzing the Industrial Hazard Risk Assessment taking 5 different
chemical Scenario and the with use GIS and Atmospheric dispersion model ALOHA
(version 5.4.4), sub part of CAMEO suite developed by US Environmental Protection
Agency which is used to assess release of Chemical hazardous material (EPA, 2013).
The city chosen was Kullu with a grid of approximately 4 Sq. Km for ease of analysis.
Kullu

Source: Google Maps

The district headquarter of Kullu District better known as Valley of Gods, is a prime
town of Himachal Pradesh. Wonderful scenic beauty embodies imagination of traveler
who has ever been to the city. Located at an elevation of 1279 m (4196 ft) along Beas
River in Kullu Valley. This valley is famous for its temples, picturesque beauty and hill
with majestic pine and deodar tree along with splendid beauty of stretches of Apple
Orchards. The Valley located at 31 34 48 N, 77 6 0 E is sandwiched with the Pir
Panjal, Lower Himalayan and Great Himalayan range from all sides.
Monsoon witnesses a rainfall of 15cm monthly during months of July and August
whereas the coolest months are December and January with temperature ranging from
4C to 20C. Generally Wind is From North and Humidity is around 56% during
summers.
Land Use and Topography
As the area is majorly a valley but is sandwiched with mountains so the surface is very
much undulated and lowest point being Beas River along with the whole town has
flourished. Catering to 18,309 people in total amid 1173 residential units. Majorly two
storied houses with less per capita space consumption in comparison to large urban
cities.

Topography

Land-use
Disaster and Hazard Profile: Kullu
Earthquake
Earthquakes, quite devastating and sudden in nature, are one of the most common
types of disasters that hit the state of HP. Lying in the sensitive Himalayan belt, at the
juncture of two active tectonic plates, the region is prone to severe seismic activity. The

district of Kullu falls in the highest seismic zone i.e. Zone V and is prone to disastrous
earthquakes and Kullu city being an unsafe area too.

Source: the times of India

Flash Floods and Cloud Bursts

Flash floods, short lived extreme events, which usually occur under slowly moving or
stationary thunderstorms, lasting less than 24 hours, are a common disaster in the Kullu
district indirectly effecting the city wirh occurrence of flood...etc.

Source: ABP News

Landslides
Landslides are simply defined as the mass movement of rock, debris or earth down a
slope and have come to include a broad range of motions whereby falling, sliding and
flowing under the influence of gravity dislodges earth material. They often take place in
conjunction with earthquakes, floods and volcanoes. At times, prolonged rainfall causing
heavy block the flow of river for quite some time. The formation of river blocks can

cause havoc to the settlements downstream on its bursting. In the hilly terrain of India
including the Himalayas, landslides have been a major and widely spread natural
disaster and often strike life and property and occupy a position of major concern.

Source: DD News

OTHERS
Along with this forest fires, soil erosion..etc. are uncommon phenomena which occurs
once in some years. Alonside all this phenomena District of Kullu is assessed as one of
he highly vulnerable zones of Himachal Pradesh along with districts like Kangra,
Chamba, Shimla, Kinnaur (HPSDMA, n.d.).
In recent time government of Himachal Pradesh has been pushing towards
industrialization, which makes us to look into the area and its susceptibility towards
chemical & industrial hazards. So in regards to it I have tried to take a hypothetical
scenario whereby some 5 types of industries having Chemical properties in nature is
taken for study. Due to constraint in data we have taken Ammonia, Hydrogen Chloride,
Hydrogen Fluoride, Blast Furnace Gas and Coke Gas1.
All the cases in this report is hypothetical and its one of its 1st report for study on
chemical hazard in city of Kullu. There is no resemblance to real scenario and many
assumptions are taken so to complete the analysis as a part of academic exercise for
course titled Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment tutored by Ajay Katuri at CEPT University.

Since no secondary analysis neither primary surveys were done for study, so for ease of reference in the
calculation we have taken typical chemicals which are taken in the study.

Population Distribution & Error Calculation

Area of Kullu (Sq.Km)
pop.(2011)
Density

Study area(sq.km)
Pop. Of study area

2
18309
9154.5

4
18309

No. of slum polygons

No. of residential polygons

1
1149

Total slum area

0.02

Population (30% of total

pop.)
Remaining pop

No. of houses of 1 floor

(G)
G+1
G+2
G+3
Total_households
Average household size

324
340
231
254
1149
5.2

pop. In G
pop. In G+1
POP. IN G+2
POP. IN G+3
Total population

1684.8
3536
3603.6
5283.2
14107.6

Population error
pop. In slums+households
Error

19600.3
-1291.3

5492.7
12816

Methodology
For doing the analysis a rigorous methodology is needed to be followed which has been
explained in the subsequent paragraphs. At first we need to identify the Grid of 4 Sq.Km
on which we want to do the analysis (must comprise of chemical industries), the map its
components ad identify the location of Industries (In our case it has been taken
hypothetical. After all the components for map is ready, Population is distributed into the
residential units of the map. Then simultaneously analysis for the gases has be done in
following manner,
1. After opening the software familiarize yourself to the interface,
2. Then feed the Location and Building type of the area into the system,
3. Then the Chemical data, Source and Atmospheric Data has to be given into
System,
4. Then we can see the Source Strength of Chemical and the threat zone,
5. Then is to export the Threat Zone Data to KML for integrating it with GIS
Database and finding out the vulnerability subsequently the Risk associated;
6. Then export into KML and open it in Arc GIS and covert KML to layer,
7. There after identify areas coming under red zone of each chemical and find
vulnerability and subsequently find the Risk

For analyzing risk for the chemicals both scenario and Hazard Probability has to be
identifies for which following table has been adapted from a research paper titled
(Ricardo Bandini, n.d.)
Substance

Scenario

Hazard Probability

Ammonia

Rii. Continuous

3.03 * 10-5

HCL

Rii. Continuous

4.60 *10-4

Blast Furnance Gas

UVCE

3.20 * 10-3

HF

Rii. Continuous

4.60 * 10-4

Coke Gas

UVCE

3.20 * 10-3

Substance like Blast furnace gas and coke gas wont be available in this case data has
to be feed manually (by finding the molecular weight and density of gases it constitutes)
(Toolbox, n.d.) (Energy, n.d.).
For risk calculation under each chemical we will use the formula
Risk (R) = H x (V x A)
Where,
H2=Hazard expressed as probability of occurrence within a reference period
V= physical vulnerability of a particular type of element at risk (Buildings and
Population)
A= amount or cost of the particular elements at risk (example- number of buildings, cost
of buildings and number of people etc.)

Hazard Probability factor is taken from research done by Ricardo Bandini & Valerio Cozzani, basically is the no. of
events per year. Probably this can vary due to difference in type, place, climate..etc. But due to ease in the
calculation we have taken typical chemicals which are taken in the study.

Cases
1. Ammonia

2. Hydrogen Chloride

3. Hydrogen Fluoride

4. Blast Furnance Gas

Its composes of 5% Hydrogen and 20% Carbon Monoxide and rest is air
Thus the Molecular Weight (MW bg)= 5%*(molecular weight of
Hydrogen)+20%*(Molecular Weight of Carbon Monoxide) (Anon., n.d.)
Thus, MW bg = 0.05*2.016+0.2*28.01+0.75*29= 27.46
Density = 1.250*10^6 mg/m3

5. Coke Gas
Composition is 50-70% H2 and 25-30% CH4 , for ease of calculation and data
inconsistency we will assume the maximum composition as our Primary chemical
for analysis. So its Hydrogen.

Risk Analysis

AMMONIA

HCL

HF

BLAST FURNACE GAS

COKE GAS

Chemical
Name

Rii.
Continuou
s
Rii.
Continuou
s

4.60 *10-4

Vulnerability X
Amount
Building People
s
74
1576

4.60 * 10-4

22

204

101.2*10-4

938.4*10-4

Blast
Furnace
Gas
Coke Gas

UVCE

3.20 * 10-3

124

25.6*10-4

396.8*10-4

UVCE

3.20 * 10-3

103

3.2* 10-3

32* 10-3

Ammonia

Rii.
Continuou
s

3.03 * 10-5

32

3.03* 10-5

96.96* 10-5

HCL
HF

Scenari
o

Hazard
probabilit
y

Risk
To
Buildings

To People

340.4*10-4

7249.6*10-4

Conclusion
After the assessment of risk strategies can be made to mitigate the risk. Strategies need
to be adopted according to situations so as to minimize the losses to both Human and
physical capital.

References
Anon., n.d. [Online]
Available at: http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/aprg/courses/dm/a2sol.html
Energy, C., n.d. [Online]
Available at: http://www.clarke-energy.com/steel-production-gas/
EPA, 2013. Environmental Protection Agency. [Online]
Available at: http://www2.epa.gov/cameo/cameo-downloading-installing-and-running-aloha
HPSDMA, n.d. [Online]
Available at: Source: http://www.hpsdma.nic.in/ProfileOfState/CurrentStatus.html
Ricardo Bandini, V. C., n.d. PIANIFICAZIONE TERRITORIALE IN POSSIMITA' DI STABILIMENTI A RISCHIO DI INCIDENTE
RILEVANTE. p. 12.
Toolbox, T. E., n.d. [Online]
Available at: http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/gas-density-d_158.html

Note: In case of Coke gas, since only premises is getting affected so 10 people are taken into case as in
the Blast Furnace chamber whereby the blast will happen will only have specific workers