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Introduction to Inference
Estimating with Confidence

IPS Chapter 6.1

2009 W.H. Freeman and Company

Objectives (IPS Chapter 6.1)

Estimating with confidence

Statistical confidence

Confidence intervals

Confidence interval for a population mean

How confidence intervals behave

Choosing the sample size

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Overview of Inference

Methods for drawing conclusions about a population from sample

data are called statistical inference

Methods

Confidence Intervals - estimating a value of a population parameter

Tests of significance - assess evidence for a claim about a population

Inference is appropriate when data are produced by either

a random sample or
a randomized experiment

How Statistical Inference Works

Statistical Inference is the process of drawing conclusions using

data that are subject to random variation.

It makes propositions about populations, using data drawn from the

population of interest via some form of random sampling.

The result of a statistical inference is a statistical proposition.

Some common forms of statistical proposition are:

an estimate, i.e. a particular value that best approximates some

population parameter of interest

a confidence interval, i.e. an interval constructed from the data in such

a way that, under repeated sampling, it would contain the true parameter
value with the probability stated in the confidence level

a test of significance, i.e. a decision to reject or accept a

hypothesis/claim about the nature or state of a population on the basis of
a statistically significant outcome/result

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How Statistical Inference Works

Population
under study
=? , p = ?

3. Use Statistical
Inference to draw
conclusions

1. Take a SRS
of size n

2. Compute the
value of a sample
statistic

x , p

Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval gives an estimated range of values which is

likely to include an unknown population parameter. Its calculated
from a sample taken from the population and is of the form:

estimate margin of error

The level of confidence is the likelihood that the true value of the
population parameter falls in the estimated interval range of values.

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Computing Confidence Intervals for

when the population standard deviation is known
Example 1

The weight of single eggs of the brown variety is normally distributed

with an unknown mean and a known standard deviation = 5g.
You buy a carton of 12 brown eggs and find out that the box weighs
770g, for an average weight of 64.2g per egg . What can you
conclude about the true mean weight of all brown eggs?

?
5g

770 g

x 64.2 g

P 1
x 1
0.68 or 68%
n
n

Example 1 Cont.

Therefore, there is a 68% chance that theinterval x 1

includes the uknown value .

Distribution of X-bar

x 64.2

12

1.443

Location of the
mean .

x 1
68% Confidence Interval
for the mean weight of a
brown egg.

64.2 1.443
(62.757, 65.643)

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P 2
x 2
0.95 or 95%.
n
n

Therefore, there is a 95% chance that theinterval

Example 1 Cont.

x 2

includes the uknown value .

Distribution of X-bar

x 64.2

5
12

1.443

Location of the
mean .

x 2

64.2 2 1.443
(61.314, 67.086)

95% Confidence Interval

for the mean weight of a
brown egg.

Example 1 Cont.

What is an 80% Confidence Interval for the mean weight of a brown egg?

We need to find a value z * so that :

P z *
x z*
0.80 or 80%
n
n

1 0.80
2

- z* = invNorm(.10, 0, 1) = -1.28
We can use z* to calculate the
margin of error for the interval:

m z *

Therefore an 80% CI for the mean

weight of a brown egg is:
5
64.2 1.28

12
64.2 1.8475 or

62.35,

66.05

z* =

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Confidence Interval for ( given)

In general

A level C (expressed as a %)
confidence interval for when is
known is given by:

x z *

Assumptions

The population from where the

sample is taken is normally
distributed, or

sample size n 30.

- z*

z*

Example

Weights of newborn babies follow a normal distribution with a

standard deviation =1lb & an unknown mean . To estimate we
look at the next 10 babies born. We find that the sample mean x-bar
for these two babies is 6.35 lbs.

(a)

What is a 90% CI for based on this sample?

(b)

What is a 95% CI for based on this sample?

(c)

What is a 85% CI for based on this sample?

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How do we find specific z* values?

Table D: Values of z* for the listed confidence levels C in the bottom
row of the table are given in the row above it.

Example: For a 98% confidence level, z*=2.326

We can also use software. For example, in Excel:
=NORMINV(probability, mean, standard_dev)
gives z for a given cumulative probability.
Since we want the middle C probability, the probability we require is (1 - C)/2
Example: For a 98% confidence level, =NORMINV(.01,0,1) = 2.32635 (= neg. z*)

Computing CI using the TI-83

1. Press STAT.
2. Select TESTS Zinterval.

Select Inpt: Data; enter the

value for , the list (Li)
where the sample data is
stored, and the confidence
level ( C Level) in
decimal format.

OR

Select Inpt: Stats; enter

the value for , x-bar, n,
and the confidence level (C
Level).

3. Select Calculate & press

Enter.

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Example 1: Calories in Apples

The following table shows the number of calories in a sample of 10 apples

of a certain variety.
49
69

39
30

54
50

65
63

64
41

Compute (a) 80%, (b) 90%, & (c) 98% confidence intervals for the true
population mean of the number of calories in apples of this variety based on
this sample. Assume caloric content in apples of this type is normally
distributed with a standard deviation =10 calories.

What does it all mean?

Say we compute a 95%
confidence interval, 95%

/n

confidence means 95% of the

time the interval we compute
captures the true value of the
population mean (), and 5% of
the time it misses it.

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Confidence intervals - Summary

The confidence interval is a range of values with an associated

probability or confidence level C.

The probability quantifies the chance that the interval contains the
true population parameter.

Sample size and experimental design

You may need a certain margin of error (e.g., drug trial, manufacturing
specs). In many cases, the population variability ( is fixed, but we can
choose the number of measurements (n).
So plan ahead what sample size to use to achieve that margin of error.

m z*

z * 2
n

Remember, though, that sample size is not always stretchable at will. There are
typically
costs and constraints associated with large samples. The best
approach is to use the smallest sample size that can give you useful results.

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What sample size for a given margin of error?

Density of bacteria in solution:
Measurement equipment has standard deviation
= 1 * 106 bacteria/ml fluid.
How many measurements should you make to obtain a margin of error
of at most 0.5 * 106 bacteria/ml with a confidence level of 90%?
For a 90% confidence interval, z* = 1.645.

z *
1.645 *1
2
n
n
3.29 10.8241
m
0
.
5

Using only 10 measurements will not be enough to ensure that m is no

more than 0.5 * 106. Therefore, we need at least 11 measurements.

10