The IR VIEWS by Harveer Sinh

2014
IR VIEWS for
UPSC-MAIN
International
Affairs, Relations
and Extra-Maritals
Almost Everything You were searching for in last 2 years of your UPSC
preparation related to IR. It is not a book. It is a talking document..lol..
compiled each day to answer all predictable questions :-)
Compiled by: HARVEER SINH

harveersinh@gmail.com
10/14/2014
The IR VIEWS by HARVEER SINH http://iastoss.in/
CONTENT
Sl. No.
Topics
PART-A : IR Basics
01
Terminology and IR Theories
02
Indias Foreign Policy: Past, Present and Future
03
International Institutions and Groupings (Do It Yourself)
PART-B : India and The World
04
Indias relations with Neighbors
A. Afghanistan
B. Pakistan
C. Maldives
D. Nepal
E. Bhutan
F. Bangladesh
G. Sri Lanka
H. China
05
06
Indias Look East Policy and ASEAN

The Arc of Democracy: IndiaJapanAustraliaUSA and Korea
07
08
09
10
11
India and Middle East

IndiaCentral AsiaRussia
India Europe
India Africa
India Latin America
Page No.
(DIY)
This Document is compiled from many sources. Google, facebook and

twitter helped me in reaching to the source websites. Many websites like
bbc, stratfor, vox, caspeanreport, the Hindu, Indian Express and some
blogs are the major source of my knowledge and content. COPYRIGHT is
theirs and COPYWRONG is mine.
These are not my VIEWS, certainly not your VIEWS, These are THEIR
VIEWS.
Suggestions, Thanks and GaliGloches are Welcome.
Regards Harveer Sinh
https://twitter.com/iastoss
If you wish to contribute something for fellow aspirants or fellow teachers,
do mail me at
01: International Relations: TERMS

ACTOR: Any entity which plays an identifiable role in international relations may be
termed an actor. The SecretaryGeneral of the UN, Human Rights Organizations, Any
state can be termed as actors.
ALLIANCE: An agreement between two or more states to work together on mutual
security issues. States enter into such cooperative security arrangements in order to
protect themselves against a common (or perceived) threat. By pooling their resources
and acting in concert, the alliance partners believe that they can improve their overall
power position within the international system and their security relative to states
outside the alliance
ANARCHY: Its literal meaning is absence of government but it is often used as a
synonym for disorder, disarray, confusion or chaos. Formally, it is the lack of a central
authority.
ASEAN: Association of South East Asian Nations.
AUTHORITY: Person or institution which legitimizes acts or commands; as such it
must be differentiated from power which indicates capacity rather than right. It is the
lack of a common and accepted authority which is said to distinguish international
from domestic politics and law.
AUTONOMY: Degree of freedom, rather than absolute. Now a days, it is used in
ethnonationalism and culturalnationalism.
BALANCE OF POWER
A deliberate attempt to prevent predominance or possession of power or exercise of
power or the pattern of interaction between states tends to limit or curb the quest for
hegemony and results in general equilibrium
According to Hedley Bull, BOP fulfilled three positive functions in the modern
statesystem:
1. It has prevented the system from being transformed by conquest into a
universal empire.
2. Local balances of power have served to protect the independence of states in
particular areas from absorption by a preponderant power.
3. It has provided the conditions in which other institutions on which the
international order depends might develop, e.g. diplomacy, war, international
law, international bodies.
A simple balance involving two states (a bipolar system) is likely to be more unstable
than a complex balance (a multipolar system).
This is because a sudden technological change which dramatically increases the power
of one of the poles (e.g. the success of the Soviet Sputnik in 1957 and its perception in
the United States) can, unless immediately corrected, destroy the equilibrium.
Multipolar systems, because of the possibility of shifting combinations, can more
readily cope with these occurrences. Indeed, flexibility of alignment and diplomatic

mobility are important characteristics; under such a system states must be able to
change sides regardless of ideological affinity (the NaziSoviet pact of 1939 is a
classic example). The corollary is also true; states must be willing to abandon an
erstwhile ally when conditions change. A further point to note is that the system,
because it involves constant calculation of power and interest, is likely to produce an
international hierarchy where states are categorized into at least three divisions: great
powers middle powers and small powers.
BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOUR POLICIES: Governments sometimes pursue
policies at the expense of other states that they believe will be in their own countrys
shortterm national interest. However, if other countries follow their example, such
beggarthyneighbour policies can be selfdefeating. A good analogy is crowd
behaviour in sports. If your view of the action is blocked by the person sitting in front
of you, it is in your interest to stand up and get a better view, even if by so doing you
prevent those behind you from seeing what is going on. However, if everyone stands
up then the situation is no better than it would have been if they had remained seated,
only now it is more uncomfortable
BIPOLAR: A concept associated particularly with the Cold War period when the
structure of the international political system was imagined to revolve around two
poles (blocks) the Soviet Union and the United States. The world was dominated by
the interests and perceptions of the two superpowers.
BUFFER STATE: small or weak states which exist on the borders of powerful states
and which, from the security standpoint of the latter, serve as intermediate cushions
or crush zones. They serve as an insurance against direct and, more importantly,
surprise hostilities between great powers.
CAPABILITY: A term used in the analysis of power. both tangible and intangible
attributes (such as morale, diplomatic skill) are recognized as relevant in determining
capability.
CIVIL WAR: Civil war is protracted internal violence aimed at securing control of
the political and legal apparatus of a state. The role of third parties, external to the
territory of the state, can be crucial in determining the outcome of civil wars. Most
obviously third parties can provide assistance to incumbents or insurgents in a variety
of ways. UN has failed to develop sufficient efficacy in its own instruments to prevent
intervention in civil wars by third parties.
CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS: hypothesis propounded by Samuel Huntington. the
fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or
primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source
of conflict will be cultural. It would be based on based on ethnic and religious
allegiances.
COLD WAR: A period in international history (beginning soon after the end of the
Second World War and ending in the early 1990s), as well as a description of the
overall relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union during that period.
It was an intense struggle for power between the superpowers. The word war implies
tension, armed conflict, and a zerosum relationship between the superpowers. The
word cold refers to the presence of factors that allegedly restrained the confrontation
and prevented a hot war.
DE-FACTO/DE-JURE: De facto normally refers to provisional recognition that a
particular government exercises factual sovereignty, whereas de jure implies
recognition of both factual and legal sovereignty. The de facto implies doubt either
about the long term viability of a regime or else of its legitimacy; de jure implies
complete diplomatic acceptance of the new state or government.
DETERRENCE: In its simplest form, deterrence consists of the following threat,
intended to dissuade a state from aggression: Do not attack me because if you do,
something unacceptably horrible will happen to you. In other words, deterrence is a
form of persuasion in military strategy. To convey such a threat, the deterrer must
decide what constitutes an attack, and must then decide what level of response would
be adequate to deter it. This in turn depends on the deterrers estimation of the
adversarys intentions and the values it places on them. For deterrence to succeed, the
threat must also be credible. Not only must the potential aggressor believe that the
costs of an attack would be higher than its benefits, but also that there is a significant
likelihood that such costs would indeed be incurred.
ENCLAVE: Territory of one state surrounded by the territory of another like
Bangladeshi enclaves in India.
EQUALITY OF STATES: One of the primary values of the modern international
statesystem is the sovereign equality of states.
It is enshrined in Article 2 of the United Nations Charter which asserts that the
Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its
Members.
The condition of sovereign equality means that an actor can claim the
privileges, opportunities and diplomatic status that derive from statehood.
The constant intrusion, or potential intrusion, of power renders meaningless
any conception of equality between members of the international community.
ETHNIC CLEANSING: the systematic, deliberate and often brutal forced removal of
members of one or more ethnic groups from territory claimed by another ethnic group.
In theory, it can be distinguished from genocide, which is the deliberate and
systematic extermination of a national or racial group, but in practice the two
are often indistinguishable.
Ethnic cleansing is regarded as a species of postmodern war where conflict
between states has been replaced by conflict between rival militias, factions
and other informal ethnic groupings.
The victims are overwhelmingly civilians who are often slaughtered without
mercy by their former neighbours and compatriots.
Recent examples besides Bosnia, include Liberia, Rwanda, Sri Lanka, Sierra
Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Haiti, Cambodia, Zaire etc.
ETHNOCENTRISM: This is the tendency to see one's own group, culture, nation in
positive terms and, conversely, other groups in negative terms
EXTRATERRITORIALITY

A vital aspect of diplomacy which refers to the exercise of legal jurisdiction by a
'sender' state within a 'received' state's territory.
In modern usage it is bound up with diplomatic immunity. However, extraterritoriality
has not been mutual or reciprocal (Devyanis case).
State insist that its own expatriates be subject to their homebased legal system and not
that of the locale in which they were placed.
Apart from diplomats, it is common practice in alliance systems for the armed forces
of one state which are present in the territory of another to enjoy the privileges of
extraterritoriality
FAILED NATION-STATES
The withering away of central government, the rise of tribal and regional domains, the
unchecked spread of disease and the growing pervasiveness of war.
The end of the Cold War led rival powers not to extend economic/military assistance
to former client regimes which are now unable to survive unaided.
Examples of failed state are Examples are Somalia, Sudan, and Afghanistan
FEMINISM: The study of and movement for women not as objects but as subjects of
knowledge. Until the 1980s, the role of gender (i.e. the relationship between sex and
power) in the theory and practice of international relations was generally ignored.
Today, this is no longer the case as a number of feminist thinkers have turned their
critical sights on a field that has traditionally been genderblind. Over the last decade,
feminism has emerged as a key critical perspective within the study of international
relations.
GREAT POWERS: For five centuries, the worlds most powerful states the
Portuguese, Spanish, and Italians in the sixteenth century; the Swedes and the Danes in
the seventeenth century; the British, French, and Germans in the eighteenth and
nineteenth centuries; and, finally, the Americans and the Russians in the twentieth
century have assumed the mantle of great powers. Great powers, as the words
suggest, are the most influential states in the international system at any one time.
HEGEMONY: primacy or leadership by a state possessing sufficient capability to
fulfil this role. Other states in the system would thereafter have to define their
relationship with the hegemon mostly complying with the Hegemon state.
INTERNAL COLONIALISM: underdevelopment within a state or region as a result
of unequal exchange between the periphery and the core. in the UK for example,
internal colonialism refers to the relationship between England (the core) and the
Celtic fringes, Scotland, Ireland and Wales. In India also, this concept is applicable.
IRREDENTISM: regions which had cultural and ethnic ties with the parent state but
which lay outside the physical control of the state waiting to be redeemed. It
characterizes policies which seek to alter the status quo in a particular territory on the
basis of nationalistic or ethnic criteria.

LIBERALISM
The liberal theory of international relations contains a number of propositions, are the
following:
1. Peace can best be secured through the spread of democratic institutions on a
worldwide basis.
2. The national interest and the international interest would be one and the same.
Because 'war does not pay'.
3. If disputes continue to occur, these would be settled by established judicial
procedures, since the rule of law is just as applicable to states as it is to
individuals.
4. Collective security would replace notions of selfhelp.
LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT (LIC) :
Conflicts where the commitment of capabilities is finite and limited. The term is used
with third World, drug control and antiterrorist measures.
Typically the kinds of forces required for intervention in low intensity conflicts are
held to be highly mobile, functionally specific units with perhaps a commitment to
selfreliance beyond the conventional norm.
MERCANTALISM: It is an economic philosophy that believes that economic
management should be part of the states pursuit of its national interests defined in
terms of wealth, power, and prestige.
MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION (MAD): A relationship between two
states in which each can destroy the others society even after absorbing an allout
attack (or first strike) by the other state. In short, each state has an invulnerable
secondstrike capability.
NATION: notion which refers to a social collectivity, the members of which share
some or all of the following: a sense of common identity, a history, a language, ethnic
or racial origins, religion, a common economic life, a geographical location and a
political base.
NATION-STATE: the centralized state claiming exclusive and monopolistic
authority within a defined territorial area.
NON-INTERVENTION
Rights associated with independence and sovereignty logically implied corresponding
duties of nonintervention. Thus, the claim to exclusive domestic jurisdiction
represented by the principle of cuius rego eius religio extended to its corollary
freedom from external interference.
While nonintervention is now widely regarded as a rule which states ought to adhere
to, it is often thought to be more honoured in the breach than in the observance.
Indeed, many scholars have noted that in the post1945 period intervention appears
not only to be endemic in international relations (to the extent that it can be regarded
as 'structural' in character), but may even be coterminous with it. That is, if all states
complied all the time with the requirements of nonintervention, international politics
as we know it would disappear. In this way, modern debates centre not around the
existence of the rule, but rather the nature and scope of exceptions.
PLURALISM: It is a theory of interstate and intrastate both. Intrastate it is a
political systems where power is shared among a plurality of competing parties and
interest groups. In interstate understanding it is preference for a multiactor model
where the centrism is being opposed.
PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY: The main focus of preventive diplomacy is to
identify and respond to brewing conflicts in order to prevent the outbreak of violence.
QUASI-STATE: excolonial states of Asia, Africa and Oceania, which through the
process of decolonization have achieved 'juridical' statehood but lack many of the
attributes of 'empirical' statehood. They possess all the trappings and formal qualities
of sovereign independent statehood in particular the rights and responsibilities
stemming from full membership of the international community but are deficient
in 'the political will, institutional authority and organized power to protect human
rights or to provide socioeconomic welfare'.
RATIONALITY: It is utility maximization leading to the efficient utilization. Thus
minimizing losses and maximizing gains is called rational.
REALISM: since the purpose of statecraft is national survival in a hostile
environment the acquisition of power is the proper, rational and inevitable goal of
foreign policy. The national interest therefore is defined in terms of power, to the
virtual exclusion of other factors such as the promotion of ideological values or of
moral principles.
RECOGNITION: It is way for conferring legitimacy to a state. international law
tends to view community acquiescence and empirical reality as proper guidelines for
conferring recognition. But it must be emphasized that the whole process is highly
political. the nonrecognized state has no obligations at all under international law.
For example the refusal of the Arab world to recognize Israel could entail Israel not
being bound by international rules covering, say, aggression or the laws of warfare.
REGIONALISM: Regionalism is to region what nationalism is to nation. A complex
of attitudes, loyalties and ideas which concentrates the individual and collective minds
of people(s) upon what they perceive as 'their' region. Regionalism within states is
thus a very broadbased set of ideas and aspirations which may see much or little
conflict between the concept of region and the concept of centre.
ROGUE STATE: A state that regularly violates international standards of acceptable
behaviour. Over the last decade Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and North Korea have
all been given this highly pejorative label. It evokes images of a state that is outwardly
aggressive, a threat to international peace, highly repressive, xenophobic, and
arrogant, and which has no regard for the norms of international society.
SECESSION: the mirror image of irredentism, the term refers to the political
expression of separation by the inhabitants of a region from some preexisting state
structure. Secessionist sentiments may therefore be seen as indicative of the rejection
of some of the most basic ground rules of the statesystem in favour of nationalism
that owes more to ideas about kinship and ethnicity. Like Bangladesh and Yugoslavia.

It is mostly the outcome of a civil war. Since secession represents such a powerful
centrifugal challenge to statecentrism, secessionist tendencies and factions will be
resisted by political authorities at the centre.
SECURITY
A term which denotes the absence of threats to scarce values. Historically security has
been seen as a core value and ultimate goal of state behaviour. This position was often
latent and assumed rather than manifest and stated.
`How much security is enough?' becomes a relevant question in todays world
Traditionally analyses of security in a foreign policy context concentrated on the
military dimension. Here threats implicit in war and near violent conflict situations
raised acute national security questions for political leaderships. Strategies of
'balancing' or 'bandwaggoning', of allyseeking and coalitionbuilding, of arms racing
and defence spending were the common currency of classical security policy making.
The end of the Cold War has allowed for a burgeoning of the security agenda to
include ideas about economic and ecological/environmental security to set alongside
the more familiar military.
Economic security is essentially a 'supplyside' problem in IR, which is why
mercantilism sets so much store by selfsufficiency. If the control of the supply of
goods and services falls into hostile hands or if the price for the supply of the same is
set by a hostile actor with monopoly control then the economic security of the
recipient is potentially under threat.
Environmental security concerns are truly transnational. Strategies based upon narrow
statecentric views are ultimately selfdefeating in environmental policy making.
If assumptions can be made about common security as an alternative to statecentric
versions of security then it might be possible to go even further and see the security
concept becoming part of the agenda for global governance to consider.
SECURITY DILEMMA: the security dilemma arises for the situation that states find
themselves in. By striving to increase their on security by following policies that
enhance their military capabilities states inadvertently make others feel less secure.
As a result of this behaviour a vicious circle or spiral of securityinsecurity arises to
which there is no permanent and lasting solution. if war is costly and cooperation
beneficial there will be strong incentives to overcome the dilemma by following
policies that ameliorate rather than exacerbate relations between putative adversaries.
SELF-DETERMINATION: The right or aspiration of a group, which considers
itself to have a separate and distinct identity, to govern itself and to determine the
political and legal status of the territory it occupies. Thus, in the political sense it
refers both to a process and to an idea. Closely identified with nationalism and
liberalism it is probably best understood as a theory of the relationship between nation
and state which finds its fullest expression in the concept of the democratic nation
state. In a general sense, then, political self determination refers to the right of
peoples to determine their own destiny in their own way.
SOVEREIGNTY

Often regarded as the enabling concept of international relations whereby states assert
not only ultimate authority within a distinct territorial entity but also assert
membership of the international community.
The doctrine of sovereignty implies a double claim: autonomy in foreign policy and
exclusive competence in internal affairs.
Paradoxically, therefore, the doctrine of state sovereignty necessarily leads to the
concept of international anarchy: the idea of a supreme authority within the state
logically leads to a denial of the existence of a suprasovereign above the state.
Sovereign states are judges in their own cause have an absolute right to go to war to
pursue their conceived interests and can treat those who fall within their domestic
jurisdiction in their own way. However, in practice the denial of a suprasovereign
authority beyond the state has never meant that sovereign states are free to do as they
please.
The history of the modern states system (which is to say the history of state
sovereignty) from the seventeenth century onwards has been a conscious attempt to
move away from the apparent rigidity of the early formulation of the doctrine while
retaining its more useful characteristics, especially the idea of formal equality which it
implies
Increasing interdependence, the reciprocal nature of international law and
membership of international organizations have thus led to the acceptance of the
doctrine of 'divided sovereignty' where supremacy is qualified either through consent
or auto limitation.
The UN Charter, for example, is an implicit recognition of this (Article 2 para. 1
recognizes the `sovereign equality' of member states yet exhorts them to settle their
disputes by 'peaceful means').
STATE: It has a legal personality and as such in international law possesses certain
rights and duties. States must possess the following qualifications: a permanent
population, a defined territory and a government capable of maintaining effective
control over its territory and of conducting international relations with other states.
TRACKS OF DIPLOMACY
Traditionally, the term "diplomacy" referred to interaction between nationstates.
More recently, however, scholars have delineated several levels of diplomacy. Tracks
1,2,3 multitrack etc.
Track 1 diplomacy: Official discussions typically involving highlevel political and
military leaders and focusing on ceasefires, peace talks, and treaties and other
agreements.
Track 2 diplomacy: Unofficial dialogue and problemsolving activities aimed at
building relationships and encouraging new thinking that can inform the official
process. Track 2 activities typically involve influential academic, religious, and NGO
leaders and other civil society actors who can interact more freely than highranking
officials. Some analysts use the term track 1.5 to denote a situation in which official
and nonofficial actors work together to resolve conflicts.
Track 3 diplomacy: Peopletopeople diplomacy undertaken by individuals and
private groups to encourage interaction and understanding between hostile
communities and involving awareness raising and empowerment within these
communities. Normally focused at the grassroots level, this type of diplomacy often
involves organizing meetings and conferences, generating media exposure, and
political and legal advocacy for marginalized people and communities.

ZERO-SUM: A term derived from game theory. It refers to the fact that the
numerical value of the payoffs add up to zero. It is therefore held to represent in
mathematical terms a situation of pure conflict where a gain to one party is a loss to
the other.
Students of conflict analysis will often use it to characterize a particular perception
held by participants of the nature of their conflict. Conflict resolution may be made
more difficult if this type of perception appears to be influential and deeply held.
Different Export Control Regimes
Nuclear Suppliers
Missile Technology
Group (NSG)
Control Regime
(MTCR)
# It is concerned with # It is an informal
reducing nuclear
and voluntary
proliferation.
partnership between
# It controls the
34 countries.
export and retransfer # It prevents
of materials that may the proliferation of
be applicable to
missile and unmanne
nuclear
d aerial vehicle
weapon development technology capable
#It improves
of carrying a 500 kg
safeguards and
payload at least
protection on existing 300 km.
materials.
Australia Group
Wassenaar
Arrangement.
#It identifies those

exports which need
to be controlled so
as not to contribute
to the spread
of chemical and
biological weapons
.
# It works on 2
principles
1> No Undercut
2>Catch All
# Export Controls for

Conventional Arms and
DualUse Goods and
Technologies.
>#41 participating states
#Every six months
member countries
exchange information on
deliveries of conventional
arms to nonWassenaar
members
If you wish to contribute

something for fellow aspirants
or fellow teachers, do mail me
at
02
Indias Foreign Policy: Past,

Present and Future
Ultimately, foreign policy is the outcome of economic policy.[W]e have not produced any
constructive economic scheme or economic policy so farWhen we do so, that will govern
our foreign policy more than all the speeches in this house. Jawaharlal Nehru
India accounted for a quarter of the worlds economic wealth once and It call for
regaining that rightful position.
Post 1947, ensuring economic development as per Indias needed required
independent decision making, something which couldnt be achieved by becoming a
subordinate state to one of the two superpowers during the Cold War.
For a nation that had labored under colonial rule for the better part of two centuries,
preserving its strategic autonomy was its foremost priority.
The policy of nonalignment adopted post independence was motivated by national
interest and not due to a moralistic hangover of the nonviolent Indian freedom
struggle as is commonly assumed.
The end of the Cold War resulting in a steady transition to an increasingly multipolar
world however resulted in nonaligned nations losing the bargaining power they had
previously possessed.
A reactive foreign policy in the 1990s gave way to increased Indian engagement with
the global economy marking the end of an era wherein the Indian economy was
characterized by its sub 4% Hindu rate of growth.
The 1990s along with abandoning the state centric model, marked the beginning of
an era of coalition politics in India.
The BJP government that came to power in 1999 conducted the Pokhran II tests
making India a nuclear power.
While the 1990s marked the beginning of explosive economic growth India never
managed to articulate a coherent foreign policy outlook. Arijit Mazumdar identifies
the transition to a multi party system characterized by coalition governments as a
prime cause for this phenomenon.
NEHRUS SPEECH on AIR
Promotion of International peace at all cost
Protection of our people (PIO)
Territorial Integrity.
Freedom of dependent nations and people. (Decolonization )
Elimination of Racial Discrimination
PRINCIPLES OF INDIAS FOREIGN POLICY
Non Alignment (Strategi Autonomy)
Faith in peaceful coexistence.
Faith in UN
Support for Disarmament

Peaceful use of Nuclear Energy
Independent relations with commonwealth.
Full participation in multilateral fora.
Leads to PANCHSHEEL.
Panchsheel
These set of principles to govern relations between states.
Their first formal codification in treaty form was in an agreement between China and
India in 1954.
These are
1. Mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty.
2. Mutual nonaggression.
3. Mutual noninterference in each other's internal affairs.
4. Equality and cooperation for mutual benefit.
5. Peaceful coexistence.
Objectives of Indias Foreign Policy
Settle and secure international borders. Broader bilateral intercourse can only
be achieved when geographic boundaries are beyond doubt.
Maintain regional peace and stability through the projection of Indian power.
Ensure peaceful settlement of the disputes.
India can help ensure stability of the littoral Indian Ocean region in general
and South Asia in particular.
Secure unhindered access to international markets on the most favorable
terms.
Develop deeper and broader economic relations with countries that supply fuel
and military hardware.
Cultivate and engage political constituencies that can influence policies of
foreign governments in Indias favour.
Protect and credibly demonstrate the intention to protect at all costs the
lives and wellbeing of Indian citizens living abroad. Not to forgive
governments, organizations or individuals who harm Indians.
Participate in multilateral and bilateral military cooperation relationships.
Secure visiting and basing rights at geostrategic locations in the region.
Develop capabilities and contingency plans to provide relief and rehabilitation
in the region in the event of natural or manmade disasters.
Attract talented individuals from across the world to visit, stay, work, study,
teach or live in India.
Project the Indian model as an example for other countries to emulate.
NAM 2.0
The document is an idea to identify the basic principles that should guide India's
foreign and strategic policy over next decade.

The core philosophy of the document is that success of India's own internal
development will depend decisively on how effectively we manage our global
opportunities in order to maximize our choicesthereby enlarging our domestic
options to the benefit of all Indians.
The report points out that in a situation where the world is no longer bifurcated
between two dominant powers, nonalignment today will require managing
complicated coalitions and opportunities in an environment that is not structurally
settled.
Report deals with India's approach towards the 'Asian theatre,' the international order,
hardpower, internal security, nonconventional security issues like energy and
nuclear options, the knowledge and information foundations of power as well as the
state and democracy.
NAM Summit
The 16th Summit of the NonAligned Movement was held from 26 to 31 August 2012
in Tehran, Iran. Held after 3 years.
NAM would focus on nuclear disarmament, human rights and regional issues.
The organisation consists of 120 member states, including the nonUN member state
of Palestine, and 21 other observer countries.
Role Played by NAM
o It is still of high symbolic significance.
o It is a new experiment in the world order.
o Till early 1990s, when the former Soviet Union fell apart, the organization
cultivated true autonomy for the third world. .
o The emphasis that the movement puts on the principle of cooperation among
nations are:
Continued support for peace;
Regular emphasis on the importance of disarmament;
Insistence on the nations right to selfdetermination;
Emphasis on the need for structural changes in the united nations and
its many organs, especially the security council, in order to encourage
optimal participation of the international community in international
processes related to the fate of humanity;
Insistence on the adoption and implementation of multilateral policies
as well as strong focus and unanimity on such issues as human rights
and cultural pluralism are major fortes of the movement.
The biggest weakness facing this great movement is heterogeneity of its member
states as well as their goals and policies.
India and Disarmament

1948, India called for limiting the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes only
and the elimination of atomic weapons from national armaments.
India was the first country to call to an end to all nuclear testing in 1954.
In 1978, India proposed negotiations for an international convention that would
prohibit the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons.
1982: India Called for a "nuclear freeze" i.e. prohibition on the production of fissile
material for weapons, on production of nuclear weapons, and related delivery
systems.
1988: Action Plan for Ushering in a Nuclearweapon free and NonViolent World
Order proposed by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to the Third Special Session on
Disarmament of the General Assembly in June 1988.
The heart of the Action Plan was the elimination of all nuclear weapons, in three
stages by 2010 and placed emphasis on nuclear disarmament that is global, universal
and nondiscriminatory in nature.
The essential features of this Action Plan were:
o First, there should be a binding commitment by all nations to eliminating
nuclear weapons in stages, by the year 2010 at the latest.
o Second, all nuclear weapon States must participate in the process of nuclear
disarmament. All other countries must also be part of the process.
o Third, to demonstrate good faith and build the required confidence, there must
be tangible progress at each stage towards the common goal.
o changes are required in doctrines, policies and institutions to sustain a world
free of nuclear weapons. Negotiations should be undertaken to establish a
Comprehensive Global Security System under the aegis of the United Nations.
India exercised an unparalleled restraint in not weaponizing its nuclear capability. It is
relevant to recall, that during this period, when we voluntarily and totally desisted
from testing, over 35,000 nuclear weapons were developed through a series of tests by
states possessing nuclear weapons.
India was obliged to stand apart on the CTBT in 1996 after having been actively
engaged in the negotiations for two and a half years precisely because the issues of
nonproliferation, global disarmament and India's concerns about her security and
strategic autonomy were ignored.
India's continued commitment to nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation is clear
from the voluntary measures announced by India after undertaking a limited series of
underground nuclear tests in 1998.
India remains committed to converting its voluntary moratorium into de jure
obligation accordance with our long held positions disarmament.
India has declared that it will maintain minimum credible nuclear deterrent and will
not engage in an arms race. India has declared a no-first-use doctrine.
We are willing to strengthen this commitment by undertaking bilateral agreements as
well as by engaging in discussions for a global nofirstuse agreement.
India believes that a global nofirstuse agreement would be the first step towards the
delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

India has also called for a Nuclear Weapons Convention to ban and eliminate nuclear
weapons just as the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical
Weapons Convention (CWC) have banned the other two categories of weapons of
destruction.
India has an impeccable record on nonproliferation which is ensured through a
stringent and effective system of export controls.
Global recognition of this record was evident in the near complete lack of opposition
to opening of international civil nuclear cooperation with India in 2008.
India believes that the indefinite and unconditional extension of the NPT has only
served to legitimize nuclear arsenals of the NPT states possessing nuclear weapons
into perpetuity, thus posing a major obstacle to the goal of global nuclear
disarmament. India welcomes the recent efforts by some heavily armed nuclear states
to take steps in good faith for nuclear disarmament with the aim of eventually
fulfilling obligations under Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Indias Iron Curtain Policy
In the last two decades India has stealthily straddled its interests in the Indian Ocean
Rim, which includes the islands of Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles and Madagascar
and the rim states of South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique by very deft moves in
foreign policy, economic sops like the double taxation exemption with Mauritius, and
military inroads.
This is the classical strategy of gaining influence by conjoining economic perks and
power, with military diplomacy called Showing the Flag, so well perfected by larger
maritime naval powers in the past. The Indian Navy has transferred offshore naval
patrol vessels, provided staff and training, and refit facilities and most importantly
provided naval hydrographic support to the island nations of the IOR, which steps
have left strategic imprints on the recipients.
For example, Indian Navy moved in a Leander pretending it needed repairs, and
concurrently flew in armed personnel to Victoria from Mumbai, to help ward off a
coup against President Albert Rene of the Seychelles.
In 1998 the Indian Navys INS Godavari berthed at Maldives, and Army troops flew
in by IL76s in Op Cactus and staved off a coup.
The Indian Navy possesses a sophisticated hydrographic cadre, with eight well
equipped survey ships , numerous survey craft, a large world class electronic chart
production facility in Dehradun and a hydrographic school at Goa which trains several
foreign naval and civilian personnel. Much funding for the Navys survey ships has
been contributed by the Ministry of Shipping, which allows easier induction of latest
equipment, and a swifter procurement route than the cumbersome MODs DPP08,
which is still to prove its efficacy. China views Indias hydrographic activities as
strategic inroads in to the Indian Ocean.
Indias maritime military strategy and the Navys 2004 maritime doctrine, both issued
by the Indian Navy are very clear that it is the Indian Navys responsibility to ensure

stability in the IOR, which irks the Chinese as they view the Indian Ocean as their life
line for trade and energy
India has developed a special relationship with Mauritius, which is a fulcrum island
state because of its strong Indian diaspora. India has instituted a favourable taxation
treaty that makes it Indias largest offshore investor. The Indian Navy set up the
Mauritius Coast Guard in the 70s, and has provided ships and personnel, and
Mauritius has close security coordination with Indias CIA, the R&AW.
Chinese and Pakistan activities in the IOR are closely monitored by Indias
intelligence and India has forestalled Chinese expansionist moves to lease islands in
the Seychelles.
India has signed an MOU to provide piracy patrols to Mozambique. It was also
reported that India has established a listening post in Madagascar in 2007.
Development Partnership Administration (DPA)
Development Partnership Administration (DPA), the agency is designed to
streamline and make more transparent India's growing foreign aid program, which has
expanded from almost nothing a decade ago to a sizable outlay targeting more than 60
developing countries.
The DPA will have around $15 billion to spend over the next five years.
It will be headed by Ministry of External Affairs' (MEA) additional secretary and
will bring under one umbrella all agencies involved with foreign aid and development
projects within the foreign ministry.
India's foreign aid program has made major donations to Sri Lanka, Myanmar and
Afghanistan, signaling that along with helping its neighbors New Delhi (like Washington and
Beijing) views economic aid as an important foreign policy tool.
Putting Things Straight
The mere induction of a new regime (government) does not result in dramatic
changes in the broad outlines of Indias foreign policy.
The nature of conflicts may change with technological innovation, especially in
cyberspace.
Defining national interest is not as easy as it might seem. National polls are not
conducted to define a countrys national interest. Politicians find a huge grey area
here and project almost all interests as he national interests.
A broad consensus can be built over years on the essential parameters of such interest.
India desires a secure and stable regional environment. Continued economic growth to
uplift the Indian masses out of misery.
In reality, countries do not always act in their national interest. It is no countrys
interest, for example, to have difficult relations with neighbours, but many countries
do, either because they want to dominate them or are insensitive to their concerns.
Smaller countries too overplay their hand and provoke their bigger and stronger
neighbours.
The enlightened interest of any country is undermined by tensions, conflicts and wars.
Yet, many countries willfully pursue policies that threaten peace.

If pride makes individuals obstinate and unwilling to compromise, nations too suffer
from the loss of face syndrome.
There is the issue of national power and national interest. A powerful country will
expand the scope of its national interest in tune with its ambitions and the reach of its
power. A weaker country will interpret its national interest more narrowly so as to
avoid unnecessary problems.
Globalization and interdependence has also changed notions of national interest
because countries know they do not have a free hand and have to give and take much
more than before.
In some cases, like the European Union, national interest has been submerged in
many ways within a larger community interest. Even sovereignty has been pooled in
some key areas.
National interest is a fluid and uncertain concept. A big challenge for India is
therefore to be able to define its national interest with discernment, realism,
objectivity and foresight.
This is not easy as the backdrop against which analysis and choices are made keeps
changing. A broad national consensus on what constitutes national interest is
important.
The international scene has changed a great deal in the last two decades or so. India
has needed to adjust its foreign policy accordingly. During the Cold War India
considered the Soviet Union a reliable strategic partner, even though the term
strategic partner was not used then.
With a world divided into two blocs, Indias compass was nonalignment, with its
political empathies more with the eastern bloc whose rhetoric was more friendly
towards the third world.
Indias relations with the western bloc were problematic because of the wests non
proliferation injunctions, proPakistani policies and economic philosophy.
The nature of our relations with US has been altered in the last few years. Our policies
have become convergent in many ways. Improved relations with US has given India
more room for manoeuvre regionally and internationally. Strategically, we are being
pulled towards US. This means that our relations with US allies have become better
too, as, for example, with Japan, South Korea and Australia.
Simultaneously, our relations with Russia have lost the centrality of the past. Even as
Indias economic growth is changing its global profile, our economic ties with Russia
have relatively shrunk.
Yet Russia is important for the balance of our foreign policy. A weak Russia is not
good for the global system. In fact, the space vacated by Russia has been filled by
China. US political lobbies still see Russia as a geopolitical threat.
India can do little to boost Russia, except by maintaining the regularity of summit
meetings, nurturing the traditionally close defence ties that assure nondisruption of
supplies at critical moments as well as access to sensitive technologies, and partnering
it in political groupings such as the RussiaIndiaChina dialogue and the BRICS
where the west is absent.
The challenge for India to expand its economic ties with Russia. Energy cooperation
provides an opportunity so far insufficiently exploited.
India and Russia share the agenda of multipolarity, respect for sovereignty, non
interference in the internal affairs of countries, geopolitical abuse of the human rights
issues, regime change policies, the proclivity to use military means to find solutions to
highly complex issues.

This agenda puts India at cross purposes with many policies of the west. The
challenge for India is to maintain the basics of its position but avoid a direct clash
with the west over these issues.
Yet, in terms of markets, investment needs especially to develop our poor
infrastructure, access to modern technologies in health, energy, agriculture, industry,
building a knowledge economy, participating in global supply chains etc, India needs
are much better served by the west. Our people to people relations with the west are
strong.
In fact, the needs of Indias growing economy are such that we cannot avoid doing
business even with an adversary like China. Not surprisingly, China has therefore
emerged as Indias biggest trade partner in goods.
The challenge for India is to successfully play on all geopolitical chess boards and
optimize what it can extract from others for its own development. This means India
should preserve it independence of judgment and action as much as possible even as it
conducts itself as a good and reliable partner where partnerships have been formed.
US rhetoric about its relationship with India being a defining one in the 21st century
is heady. IndiaUS relations have certainly achieved a degree of balance and maturity,
with rapid expansion of bilateral and multilateral engagement. Contentious issues
between them have receded into the background.
The US robustly affirms its strategic partnership with India, presenting India with the
challenge of leveraging its new strategic ties with that country while maintaining its
strategic autonomy.
It has to be borne in mind, however, that in maintaining its global supremacy, but with
declining means, US needs to coopt partners outside the EuroAtlantic bloc, and
India stands out as an obvious one because of its size, human resources, expanding
economic base, reasonable military strength and democratic polity.
Even with regard to its new policy of rebalancing towards Asia, intended without
being openly stated to put constraints on Chinas ambitions, US sees India as a
lynchpin. The assumption is that India alone is big enough in Asia to counter China
and that India has concerns about Chinas rise for its own security, given outstanding
border differences and Chinese policies in Indias neighbourhood.
It is in this spirit that India has strategic partnerships with a variety of countries. The
idea is to develop the basis of long term relationships to mutual advantage, create trust
and avoid any policy that hurts the legitimate interests of the other partner.
US has interests spread all over the world by virtue of it being a global power. It
cannot expect India to support its policies everywhere. US would want to fit India in
the global architecture of its policies. India has no such global architecture in which it
wants to fit US. It cannot easily fit US even into the regional architecture of its
policies, whether this relates to Pakistan, Chinas territorial claims on India, the post
Dalai Lama phase in Tibet, Iran etc.
The challenge for Indias foreign policy in the years ahead is to be courted by all and
to succumb to no one. Even if India cannot lead, it must not be led.
India has, in fact, shown great resilience, despite its economic and military weakness,
to try and stand on its own feet strategically in international affairs. Even big
European powers, which have in the past ruled many parts of the world, do not have
strategic autonomy today despite the collapse of Soviet Union and communism as an
ideology. They willingly subordinate themselves to US.
By choosing strategic selfreliance India has to cope with challenges largely on its
own. This requires that India avoid getting into situations it cannot handle, in the
main, on its own. It does not have allies to shore up its positions.

The west has never supported India so far on issues of core concern to it, whether
political, military or technological. It has now removed certain technological
disabilities on India but far from fully.
The developing countries havent supported India either on Pakistan, China or nuclear
related issues.
This explains why Indian foreign policy tends to be cautious and reticent in taking
partisan positions on highly divisive issues.
There are pressures on India to be more forthright, not sit on the fence, be willing to
incur costs in upholding the international order and not be a freeloader. India will
have to resist such pressures in the years ahead, because many of these arise from the
aggressive, dominating habits that the west has not been able to shed, which drives its
efforts to shape the world according to its values which it considers universal.
Indias challenge is not to be simply coopted into the existing international order that
is controlled by the west. It must find its due place in it in its own right and be in a
position to change the rules rather than simply adhere to existing ones.
The reform of international institutions is therefore very important and Indias
discourse on this is legitimate. India should have a greater say in these institutions.
Getting a permanent seat in the Security Council will remain a challenge as resistance
to this will not go away soon.
Selfesteem and confidence are reflected in Indias claim to a permanent seat. India is
not begging; it is claiming. India should pursue this quest, if only to remind that the
existing international institutions that uphold the present world order are no longer
representative of the international community.
We have to carefully weigh the China factor in seeking redistribution of power at the
global level. The gap between India and China has grown so big that in any re
ordering of the world order China can gain more. With Chinas world view, its sense
of itself, its historical grievances and its territorially expansionist policies, India,
which has serious differences with China, cannot be comfortable with a more
powerful China within the international system.
China has become too powerful economically and financially and too integrated with
the global economy to be contained in the way the Soviet Union was and the way
Russia is still being pressured by the west. US pivot towards Asia is not intended to
actively confront China; it is to caution it against any adventurism.
USChina relationship is much more intensive than the USIndia relationship. We
should not pay much attention to the democracy rhetoric. China becoming more
democratic is no guarantee against a more muscled Chinese foreign policy.
US and its democratic allies have muscled foreign policies too, as they are using force
in many parts of the world at great human cost. Political and moral justification for
military action can always be found, with globally powerful media helping to
rationalize such action.
Democracy is no insurance against the use of military means to achieve national ends.
Nationalism can be a powerful driver in foreign policy. A more democratic but
nationalist China will not be any less of a problem for others.
Unfortunately, China has made it clear that it does not intend to solve the border issue
with India; it says it wants it to remain dormant and leave it to the next generation to
resolve it. But then, as we have seen in the latest maps on Chinese passports, China is
establishing its claims in insidious ways. These actions reveal the longerterm strategy
China has in mind.
It is clear Tibet is not reconciled to Chinas rule. Dalai Lamas succession can revive
tensions between India and China. India has to make sure Bhutan does not yield to
Chinas blandishments. Chinas rising profile in Sri Lanka and Nepal is a cause of
concern. The ChinaPakistan axis remains a grave problem.
India has to develop its economic and military muscle to counter the China threat.
There is no other way. This is a big challenge for us ahead, even as engage China as
others do.
India cannot risk a confrontation with China; its strategy should be to dissuade China
from taking the risk of confronting India with visible and independent strategic
strength.
India has to find the right balance between engaging China and hedging against it.
Some would say that a critical foreign policy challenge confronting India is the
maintenance of friendly ties with its neighbours. India, it is claimed, cannot rise to its
potential if it is embroiled in conflicts or tensions with its neighbours. India has
supposedly failed in this regard.
Having good relations with neighbours is not a unilateral exercise; it is a reciprocal
one. If India should have good relations with its neighbours, then it is equally
incumbent on the neighbours to have good relations with India. No one can argue that
Indias conduct alone is deficient.
India should, of course, try to do its best to win over the neighbours, but if the
neighbours see it in their interest to balance a much larger India by drawing in
external powers, and prevent their national identities from being overwhelmed by
Indias civilisational and cultural pull by emphasing differences with India and
stoking antiIndian national sentiments, there is little India can do. This challenge will
not go away.
The argument that India as the bigger country should be more generous with its
neighbours is fallacious. Big countries like China and US do not believe in the merits
of this approach. Vietnam and Cuba come to mind.
Indias economic growth will be of key importance for tying our neighbours
economically to the Indian market. It will be important to give stakes to a cross
section of people in our neighbouring countries in various sectors our economy. In
this context the strengthening of SAARC should be a priority.
Our improved relations with US has excluded one external factor that in the past
complicated our relations with our neighbours. China, however, remains a problem in
this regard.
Pakistan remains a perennial problem. While some aspects of our relations with that
country are improving, as for example, in the trade area, larger questions about the
rise of Islamic radicalism there and fears that Pakistan could become a failing state are
being debated.
There is little that India can do help Pakistan fight its own internal demons. India is, in
fact, the reason why these demons exist in the first place. Unless Pakistan radically
changes its attitude to India, ceases to whip up religious sentiments against us that
feed the jihadi groups, the problem of radicalism in Pakistan cannot be successfully
controlled.
India should continue to encourage more economic and people to people ties with
Pakistan, but should also be clearsighted about the serious obstacles in normalizing
relations with that country.
We should shed the belief that concessions will make Pakistan more amenable.
India does not need to reassure Pakistan about its intentions or make Pakistan trust
us. The reverse is needed: it is Pakistan that needs to make the requisite effort to
convince India that it has abandoned the use of terrorism as state policy.

Do we have a stake in Pakistans survival as a united country, or should we encourage
the breakup of the country? So long as Pakistan is adversarial, we have no stakes in
Pakistans territorial integrity. It would be ironical for India to be supportive of
Pakistans geographical health when it wants a slice away a part of Indian territory.
We should not, however, actively seek to destabilize Pakistan, as managing a
fragmented Pakistan would raise its own problems.
On the other hand, a broken up Pakistan loses value for the Chinese. Even a
chronically unstable Pakistan loses value. It is unlikely that the Chinese will want to
rescue Pakistan with economic largesse. In that context, disarray in Pakistan is not
unhelpful to us.
Obversely, we cannot have a viable Central Asia and even Afghan policy if Pakistan
remains unstable. If this whole region is to be integrated economically, with energy
and trade connectivities, the geopolitical key is in Pakistans hands.
US is backing the project to link Central Asia with South Asia, with TAPI
symbolizing this vision, but USs ability today to bend Pakistan to its will has
suffered erosion.
Stability in Afghanistan and containment of the Taliban threat there in a regional
context is another challenge that will acquire sharper contours post 2014.
The west is looking for a compromise with the Taliban, believing it can live with an
Islamized Afghanistan so long as it is not antiwest.
We have therefore a multifold challenge in Afghanistan, of retaining our presence and
influence in that country, creating internal support for us there that can be used to
counter the Taliban and the revival of radical forces there that can threaten our
security directly with Pakistani support.
Lack of direct access to Afghanistan exposes the lack of a credible Indian policy
towards Central Asia. We have to galvanize Iran to cooperate with us for an
alternative access to Afghanistan trough Chabahar.
The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for India should there be recourse
by the west to military action against that country. The destabilization of the Gulf
region which will occur as a result would be very costly for India, as India has huge
energy, manpower and financial interests in the region. India would have to steer clear
of the rising ShiaSunni conflict in the Muslim world.
Indias Look East policy is now facing new challenges with the erstwhile equation
between China and East and Southeast Asia disturbed by Chinas muscleflexing in
the South China sea.
India has concerns about the freedom of passage through international waters, but
otherwise Indias priorities concerns are in the Indian Ocean area. However, for geo
political reasons, India would need to come closer to those countries targeted by
Chinese claims, though without getting directly embroiled in the territorial disputes.
In the Indian Ocean area, India should try to maintain its dominant status as a littoral
state as much as possible, knowing however that at some stage Chinese presence in
these waters will increase, as is portended by Chinas active search for port facilities
in this area.
Indias declared openness to cooperation with China on maritime issues should be
based on the legitimacy of not only Chinas presence in the Indian Ocean but also
Indias maritime presence close to Chinas shores.
India would need to give priority to its relations with Myanmar, now that the latter
wants to loosen the Chinese grip over the country. Myanmar is of key importance to
create eastwest connectivity in this region from which India can benefit greatly. Our
challenge is to implement our infrastructure projects in Myanmar without inordinate

delays.
As part of our Look East policy, keeping the Chinese dimension in view and bilateral
benefits that can accrue to us, India would need to boost its relations with Japan,
including mobilizing Japans clout in the ADB to finance the eastwest corridors in
Asia. Our increasing strategic engagement with Japan is a welcome move.
Beyond all these challenges, there are those of energy, food security and of climate
change.
The energy issue is not one of foreign policy alone, but it has a strong external
dimension for us because of our huge dependence on energy imports.
Our diplomacy will need to facilitate investment in hydrocarbon fields abroad as part
of our energy security drive, besides working for avoidance of conflict in areas which
are our biggest source of oil and gas. We have a shared interest with US in this but US
policies in the Gulf region, driven by the Israeli and Iranian factors, are not in line
with our interests as they keep the area on the boil.
Energy, of course, is one area where technology can achieve such breakthroughs as
can change the global energy scenario.
Climate change issues, in which energy use and environmental concerns intersect with
issues of competitivity and market openings for western technologies, will become a
source of increasing external pressure on India in the years ahead.
The water issue in South AsiaTibet region looms ahead. Apart from countering
Pakistans cynical manipulation of the water issue to sustain its negative postures
towards India, securing Chinese cooperation in transparent handling of the Tibetan
dimension will be a challenge.
In the competition for access to natural resources, China is already far ahead of India
because of greater financial resources at its disposal and its ability to organize a
coordinated national effort to that end which our system does not permit.
A new Indian approach that goes beyond relying on the private sector to make
economically rational decisions from their perspective would be needed, but that
implies a different way of economic governance.
At the end of it all, the internal and the external cannot be compartmentalized in any
country. Success or failure at home will mean success or failure abroad.
The economy is the building block of a successful foreign policy, as required
resources then become available to erect defenses at home and to pursue interests
abroad.
While it may not be a foreign policy issue per se, the establishment of an indigenous
defence manufacturing base is vital for acting independently on the world stage. No
country that cannot independently defend itself can reach big power status.
Our external dependence on arms and technology supplies limits the options available
to our foreign policy.
In conclusion, it can be said that India faces unique geopolitical challenges that will
remain in the years ahead.
It has two strategically hostile neighbours, China and Pakistan. Both are strategic
partners against India. China has transferred nuclear and missile technology to
Pakistan to neutralize India strategically.
Both have claims on India territory. India is the only country of magnitude and
importance in the world whose borders are contested, with a Line of Control in J&K
with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control with China.

The challenge for India is to engage with both constructively and yet be prepared to
confront them if necessary. India needs to avoid a twofront situation but it cannot
make any undue concessions to either adversary.
India cannot expect backing from external powers on its border differences with
China and Pakistan. In fact US is responsible for drawing the LOC in J&K from
NJ9842 to the Karakoram Pass arbitrarily. We should demand redress and a return to
legality on this issue from US.
US supports Chinas territorial integrity but has not extended such support to Indias
territorial integrity. We should engage US on this point as a strategic partner.
India gets better understanding on the terrorism issue it is faced with, but the west is
unable and unwilling to sanction Pakistan adequately because it needs Pakistan for
ensuring an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, besides the need to engage
Pakistan as a major Islamic and nucleararmed country.
This explains why despite the wests willingness to use military means to combat
proliferation elsewhere, Pakistans rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal is being
countenanced, adding to threats to Indias security. The signs of revival of the agenda
to limit proliferation in South Asia, excluding the Chinese factor, have to be scotched
by us.
The political turmoil in the Arab world, remains a big challenge for our energy
security.
The disturbance of the existing balance between Shias and Sunnis in our
neighbourhood can have negative repercussions for us, even internally. We have to
remain watchful of these developments in the years ahead.
Upgrading the military infrastructure in the north quickly and accelerating our naval
strength in the Indian Ocean are challenges ahead.
The priority of priorities is to improve governance at home because the strength of our
external limbs depends on the strength and depth of our roots in the ground.
If there is any truth in the dictum that more things change the more they remain the
same, then it would seem that the future foreign policy challenges for India will
remain the same in a different form: protection of our independence and sovereignty,
friendship with all and enmity with none and a peaceful environment in which we can
economically grow and meet our internal challenges.
If you wish to contribute something for

fellow aspirants or fellow teachers, do mail
me at
04: Indias relations with Neighbors

4A: Afghanistan, The Graveyard of Empires
USAs Departure
The US President has argued that battlefield successes since 2009 along with killing
of the AlQaeda top leadership have enabled this long war to come to a responsible
end. But, in reality the war will not end in 2014, the state would be attacked.
The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) can probably sustain the present
situation, but only as long as the U.S. Congress pays the multibilliondollar annual
bills needed to keep them fighting.
The war will thus become a contest in stamina between US Congress and/or world
community and the Taliban. Shrinking of ANSF would lead to Afghanistan
plunging to chaos again.
Two Alternatives:
o Get serious about negotiations with the Taliban. The US administration has
pursued such talks for over two years.
o The other defensible approach is outright withdrawal.
The ANSFs best units should be capable of modest offensive actions to clear Taliban
strongholds; although the Taliban will probably not march into Kabul after coalition
combat troops leave, because some of the troops would stay back and regional players
are keen to see peace in war torn country.
The United States will contribute some $4$6 billion annually to the ANSF, the
amount required to support the ANSF will surely exceed this for a long time. And
unlike Israel, which enjoys powerful political support in Washington, there is no
natural constituency for Afghan military aid in American politics.
A compromise with the Taliban would be a bitter pill to swallow, but at this point, it
would sacrifice less than the alternatives.
But, The Taliban are not serious about the negotiations. In late 2011, they assassinated
Burhanuddin Rabbani, the head of Afghan President Hamid Karzais High Peace
Council and the Kabul official charged with moving the talks forward.
Since the Taliban can wait out the United States and win outright, why should they
make concessions?
Bringing together multiple Taliban factions, their Pakistani patrons, the Karzai
administration, the governments of the United States and its allies, and intermediaries
such as Qatar will simply prove too complex. Thus the situation on ground in
Afghanistan is going to remain CHAOTIC and perplexed.
Afghans are famously nationalist, and the AfghanPakistani rivalry runs deep; exile
across the border surely grates on the Afghan Taliban. Perhaps more important, they
live under the constant threat of assassination by U.S. drones or commando raids.
The Taliban would have to renounce violence, break with al Qaeda, disarm, and
accept something along the lines of todays Afghan constitution. Which seems
nowhere near to plausible.
Pakistan would have to give up its blue-sky ambitions for an Afghan puppet state
under Taliban domination, but it would gain a stable border and enough influence via
its Taliban proxies to prevent any AfghanIndian axis that could threaten it. That
would be dangerous for India.

And the United States, for its part, would have to accept the Taliban as a legal
political actor, with an extrademocratic guarantee of positions and influence, and the
probable forfeiture of any significant base structure for conducting counterterrorist
operations from Afghan soil.
The Taliban are not popular in Afghanistan; that is why they will accept a deal only if
it guarantees them a certain level of representation in the government.
The US paid heed to its objection to the Talibans Doha office flag and the Pakistani
prime minister sent his envoy to Kabul to appease the Afghan president. Thus the
current afghan government is not spineless.
The scenarios possible after 2014
o First, The Pakistani Taliban lay down arms and live happily ever after. This is
least likely.
o Second, the recently established state and security institutions in Afghanistan,
with the support of regional and international stakeholders (Read India and
other neighbors), put up fierce resistance against the Taliban onslaught. In that
case, there will be a stalemate between the Taliban and the rest of Afghanistan
so the terrorism will grow.
o The third scenario, reconciliation process. The challenges include the process
of reconciliation, reconstruction and state building and the establishment of
sustainable political institutions in Afghanistan.
The sprawling militant network in Pakistan might find it a good opportunity to
unleash immense terror on the state and society if second scenario prevails. (Afghan
Taliban delinking from Al Qaeda).
Some districts of Khyber Pashtun (KP) earlier occupied by the Pakistani Taliban and
later taken back by the military might see the resurgence of the militant network.
If the reconciliation process among the Afghans (internally) and among the states in
the region and international stakeholders is initiated simultaneously and is in sync
with the reconstruction process and the political institutionalization of Afghanistan,
all stakeholders might emerge victorious.
This can only happen when all parties to the conflict make efforts at finding a shared
interest in the solution. This cannot be achieved as long as all parties wish to show the
other as the vanquished.
Indias Options
Apart from the US, Afghanistan is the only country where India has such a huge
diplomatic presence four Consulates (Kandahar, Herat, MazareSharif and
Jalalabad), apart from an embassy in the capital Kabul. It is a high priority area for
India.
The TalibanISI nexus had proven to be the biggest headache for the government of
India during Taliban rule in Afghanistan, culminating in Indian Airlines IC 814 hijack
on Christmas Eve in 1999. So simply, keep the Taliban away.
No other country enjoys as much popularity among the masses in Afghanistan as
India does. A Gallup poll, conducted in 2010, proved this. It found that Afghans
prefer India's leadership over that of the US and China, with 50 percent expressing
approval, the most positive rating of India for any other surveyed AsiaPacific
country. Indias stake in Afghanistan are high.

The following scenarios appear to be in foresight:
Scenario 1: A new Afghan president is chosen in 2014 through a relatively free and
fair election process. The Afghan security forces would thwart the Taliban
insurgency.
Scenario 2: The presidential candidates accusing of widespread malpractice and fraud
can undermine the power and legitimacy of the new president. (By the time you read
this document, Afghans will have new president.
o Afghan society could fracture along ethnic and tribal lines with regional
powers supporting their proxies.
o With Afghanistan divided into various spheres of influence, India would be
constrained to choose sides not just among the present regime and other
political groups, but also among the warlords and regional commanders.
o This would be a case of high risk involvement with diminishing returns, with
little guarantee of securing India's interest in the long term.
Scenario 3: powersharing arrangement
o This would gradually lead to instability and fragmentation, with antiTaliban
political forces, women and civil society groups opposing such deals, leading
the country to a 1990stype civil war situation.
o In case of the precipitous withdrawal of international forces, the danger of a
complete Taliban takeover is also highly probable. This is possibly the worst
case scenario. India will have little option but to winddown its operations,
strengthen its homeland security measures and increase vigilance along the
IndiaPakistan border.
Scenario 4: A political dispensation backed by Pakistan or headed by a proPakistan
personality like Muhammad Umar Daudzai type assumes power.
o This could also lead to a surge of influence and area domination by the
Peshawar Shura or the Haqqani network.
o New Delhi will have to recalibrate its mode of engagement by extending
support and building linkages among tribal networks, refugees, and nomadic
groups in the bordering areas of AfghanistanPakistan.
The near to mediumterm projects could include training of the Afghan National
Security Forces (ANSF), particularly its officer corps, the police, paramilitary, and the
air force, and also helping to build the justice sector.
In the long term, security sector reform and building sound civilmilitary relations
would remain critical in preventing the disintegration or loss of civil control of the
army.
The transition in the political sector is more challenging. There is an immediate need
for India to push for a national dialogue in Afghanistan which addresses the concerns
of the impending election and reconciliation process.
In addition to broad based engagement with the other political groups, New Delhi
needs to work on strengthening the electoral reform process.
On the economic sector, in the near and medium term, India could help establish
small and medium enterprises, alternate livelihood programs and revive the Afghan
indigenous economic base.
Indias aid and assistance programmes involving highvisibility infrastructure projects
have created national assets for Afghanistan, shaping Indias image and generating a
measure of gratitude.

However, an enduring Indian influence would remain linked to New Delhi designing
and helping implement development programmes to address poverty, illiteracy and
systemic administrative dysfunction.
Afghanistan would be the test case of New Delhis major power aspirations in the
region.
Indias Presence in Afghanistan
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sealed a
strategic partnership which will include help from New Delhi to train Afghan security
forces as international troops prepare to head home in 2014.
India has thus far funneled developmental aid worth 3.2 billion dollars in Afghanistan.
Besides, India has also invested about 11 billion dollars in Afghanistan in various
projects so far.
India is involved in projects including roads, power lines and the construction of the
Afghan parliament.
India is Afghanistan's sixthlargest aid donor, giving about six times more than an
estimated $330 million given by Pakistan.
In mid2014, India has agreed to pay for military equipment sourced from Russia to
Afghanistan. The equipment will include artillery, helicopters, tanks, and armored
vehicles. India will also pay to repair old Soviet hardware left behind after the
Russian withdrawal in 1989.
India offered to rebuild the Afghan national airline Ariana, donating Airbus aircraft
despite a shortage in its own fleet.
It also trained pilots, donated 600 buses, provided experts who have restored
telecommunication networks in at least 11 provinces.
Construction of a road that connects Delaram in western Afghanistan with Zaranj
on Afghanistan's border with Iran is done with the assistsance of India.
India is also rebuilding a road linking Kandahar with Spin Boldak, on the Pakistani
border.
India is viewed favourably by most Afghans, many of whom, on the other hand,
regard Pakistan with suspicion.
Pakistan alleges Indias involvement in Baloch insurgency whereas India denies it.
India does not have any troops on the ground in Afghanistan. But there are more than
500 men from the IndoTibetan Border Police and the Border Roads Organization
providing security for Indians involved in the construction of roads, as well as for
consulates.
India also trains a small number of officers from the Afghan National Army at
defense institutions in India.
Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI)
Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) signed the operational
agreement pertaining to the $7.6 billion TAPI gas pipeline project. This is also known
as TransAfghanistan Pipeline.
The 1,735kilometrelong pipeline, starting from the Yolotan-Osman gas field in
Turkmenistan, will supply Pakistan and India with 1.327 billion cubic feet per day
(BCFPD) of gas while Afghanistan will get 500 mmcfd.
Countries involved in the TAPI pipeline project have agreed to establish a company
for execution of the proposed project.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been appointed as legaltechnical consultant,
and it is identifying a company which will drive the project. The company will be
from in a neutral country.
Frances energy firm Total has evinced interest in steering the gas pipeline project
(The Hindu).
A protocol has also been inked in which the parties fixed the decision on the need to
prepare founding documents and the registration of the TAPI Ltd.
Estimated cost of the pipeline project is reported at $7.6 billion.
It has the potential to be transformative for the future of the entire region. The
pipeline project is a true multinational effort and, if realised, can serve as an important
example of the benefits of greater regional economic connectivity.
Afghanistan- Pakistan Hydropolitik
Afghanistan wants to build 12 dams on Kabul river system that connects with Indus
system. Afghanistan is upper riparian state. The Pak concerns are that India allegedly
cooperating with the Afghan
government to implement those plans.
According to PAK, it will increase
Indias influence over Afghanistan
while at the same time decrease
Pakistans water supply.
From 1999 to 2010, Pakistan has been
in open disagreement with India over
the Baglihar Dam located on the
Chenab in Jammu and Kashmir
(Discussed in IndiaPaK section
somewhere else in the document).
In August 2013, two months after
Nawaz Sharif took power in Pakistan,
the ministers of finance from
Afghanistan and Pakistan signed an
agreement to build a 1,200 megawatt
hydropower project on the Kunar
River at a cost of US$2.7 billion. It
was a surprise.
Pakistan secured funding from the
World Bank for the Dasu hydropower
project,The 4,320 megawatt project is
located on the Indus river which was objected by the National Security Council of
Afghanistan.
The World Bank approved US$588.4 million funding for the Dasu dam.
The government of Afghanistan decided to follow the same resource capture strategy
that allowed it to build the Salma and Kamal Khan dams in river basins shared with
Iran. But Afghanistan has only succeeded in building two minor projects on the Kabul
River (ShahwaAros and Machalghoo) funded by the government and with no
transboundary repercussions.
Overall, the past decade may well have been a wasted opportunity for Afghanistans
transboundary water resources development in the KabulIndus basin.

It is not be too late to engage in meaningful and constructive dialogue to make projects such
as Kunar move forward, particularly considering the potential for benefit sharing, including
flood control, sediment control and hydropower.
Quickread: Afghanistan
What will the post2014 Afghanistan look like? Most shortterm scenarios for
Afghanistan predict instability and even civil war.
The foreign forces are leaving Afghanistan without having stabilised it. When
they leave Afghanistan by 2014, their interest in the country will also decline.
This will open up the field for the return of the Taliban. The prospects of
national reconciliation are not bright.
The US will retain some troops even after 2014, these troops will perform a
geo-strategic role for the US.
India, which has contributed significantly to Afghanistans reconstruction, will
face the question of whether to continue with these programmes if and when
the instability increases.
In the 10year scenario, India should maintain contacts with all sides in
Afghanistan, deepen peopletopeople contacts but remain cautious about
getting bogged down in the country. The prescription is wait and watch.
An unstable Afghanistan will also have a destabilizing impact on Pakistan
whose Pashtundominated areas will become more restive and lawless.
This will have implications for Indias Pakistan policy also.
The game changing event that might occur after 2014 could be the beginning of
a civil war in Afghanistan. It is unlikely that the continued presence of the US
troops in Afghanistan will be tolerated by the Taliban who would need to be
accommodated in the political settlement.
The prospects of a regional solution to the Afghanistan problem are limited
given the lack of capacities in the neighbouring countries as also the vastly
different political agendas.
Pakistan might get sucked into the Afghanistan imbroglio which could threaten
its own stability. In such conditions India will have limited options.
4B: Pakistan Failed State, Not Yet

MFN Status to India
Despite commitment in 2012, Pakistan did not give MFN status to India.
MFN status will mean abolishing the negative list altogether while maintaining a list
of prohibited items that cannot be imported.
Pakistan promised to give the Most favoured Nation (MFN) status to India as the
Nawaz Sharif government has given a written assurance to the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) in this regard while seeking a $6.64 billion loan from it in August, 2013.
One of the major concerns for Pakistan was the agriculture and textiles sectors.
In 2012, the PPPled government decided to switch over from a positive list of about
1,900 tradable items to a negative list of about 1,206 items, thereby allowing about
5,000 items to be traded.

It would create trade imbalance thus paving a way for Pak looking for more foreign
currency earning options.
Both countries have a preferential trading arrangement under the South Asia Free
Trade Area (Safta) process. However, Pakistan has blocked some of these benefits to
India through the negative list. It further restricts imports from India by allowing only
137 items through the land route via the WagahAttari border.
Gwadar Port
Two oil terminals that will provide Gwadar with the capability of hosting oil tankers
and moving up to 19 million tons of crude oil per year. Crude oil is expected to be
refined at this port and then sent to China via land pipeline (GwadarKashgar project).
Its location is close to the international Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) and is
suitable for transshipment facilities.
It is farthest from Pakistans eastern neighbor (India) and thus provides more
warning time against air and naval threat.
It is more suitable for capitalizing trade opportunities with energy rich Afghanistan
and Caspian Region.
Gwadar Port being a gateway to the Persian Gulf at the Hurmoz Strait will offer
various harbour services like transshipment.
Apart from the utilization of port an existing land link can be of help to China in
improving its ever expanding trade to Central Asia, Middle East and Africa, as it will
reduce the sea distance to 2500 kms instead of 10000.
New Visa Agreement

Persons of more than 65 years of age will be granted a single entry visa on arrival at
the Attari/Wagah check posts for 45 days. This visa will be nonextendable and non
convertible.
Only rich businessmen will be able to get visa easily. Any businessmen with an
annual sale of Rs 30 lakh and above will be granted a visa, which will be valid to visit
five places in the neighbouring country and can be used for a maximum of four
entries.
And for the first time, both sides will issue GroupTourist Visas and a special visa for
pilgrims
Diplomatic Visa: Category I To be issued within a period not exceeding 30 days of
application Specifies that the visa is valid for the place and duration of
assignment and for visiting other places special permission shall be
sought. Category II Such visa will be granted to highranking dignitaries holding
diplomatic passports. No special mention of the purpose of visit.
Non Diplomatic Visas: To be issued within a period not exceeding 45 days of
application.
Group Tourist Visa: For not less than 10 people and not more than 50 peoplevalid
for 30 daysorganised by approved tour operators/travel agents to furnish details 45
days in advance. The tour operator will be responsible for police reporting on behalf

of the group. List of designated Tour Operators as well as list of approved /
identified routes and tourist destinations will be exchanged by both sides from time to
time. The Group Tourist Visa facility will also be available to students of
educational institutions of both countries. However, this will be a tourist visa only and
not for seeking admission in educational institutions of either country.
Visitor Visa: visa to be issued for a maximum period 6 months but stay not to
exceed 3 months at a time and for 5 places.
( currently limited to 3 places) 2)
Business visa separated from visitor's visa. Category II ( new) A visitor visa for a
maximum five specified places may be issued for a longer period upto two
years with multiple entriesto :
Senior citizens (those above 65 years of
age); Spouse of a national of one country married to person of another country;
and Children below 12 years of age accompanying parent(s) as given in (b) above.
Business Visa: Category I Businessmen with an income ofPak Rs. half million or
equivalent per annum or annual turnover / gross sale of Pak Rs. three million or
equivalent will be given one year business visa, with five places for up tofour
entries. Category II Businessmen with an income of at least Pak Rs. five
million or equivalent per annum or turnover of Pak Rs. thirty million or equivalent
per annum will be given one year multiple entry business visas for upto ten places,
with exemption from Police Reporting. General Instructions The visa shall
specify that the period of stay of the businessman at a time shall not exceed 30
days. The maximum time taken in processing of a will not exceed more than five
weeks.
And for the first time, both sides will issue GroupTourist Visas and a special visa for
pilgrims
Kishanganga
The legality of the construction and operation of an Indian hydroelectric project
located in the Indiaadministered Jammu and Kashmir; and secondly, the
permissibility under the Indus of the depletion of the reservoirs of certain Indian
hydroelectric plants below Dead Storage Level.
In the first dispute, the Kishanganga HydroElectric Project (KHEP) constitutes a
RunofRiver Plant under the Treaty, and India may accordingly divert water from the
Kishanganga/Neelum River for power generation by the KHEP in the manner
envisaged.
However, when operating the KHEP, India is under an obligation to maintain a
minimum flow of water in the Kishanganga/Neelum River.
It is thus obvious that Indias stance has been upheld, however, the court decided that
its right to divert the Kishanganga/Neelum is not absolute it is subject to the
constraints specified in the Treaty and, in addition, by the relevant principles of
customary international law.
Paragraph 15(iii) gives rise to Indias right to construct and operate hydroelectric
projects involving intertributary transfers, but also obliges it to operate those projects
in such a way as to avoid adversely affecting Pakistans then existing agricultural and
hydroelectric uses.
The court, therefore, found that Pakistan retains the right to receive a minimum flow
of water from India in the Kishanganga/Neelum riverbed at all times.
It noted that this right also stems from customary international environmental law,
and that it considered that the Treaty must be applied in light of contemporary
international environmental law principles.
In the 2nd dispute, it ruled that the Treaty prohibits depletion below the dead
storage level of the reservoirs of Runof River Plants (and correspondingly,
drawdown flushing), except in the case of an unforeseen emergency.
This ruling does not apply to plants already in operation or under construction (whose
designs have been communicated by India and not objected to by Pakistan).
The Insecurity Complex and the deadly Triangle

Ceacefire is there since 2003, in 2013 ceasefire violations began in January with the
beheading of an Indian soldier, with a further 150 breaches since then, far exceeding
2012s total of 117.
On the eve of highprofile talks between Nawaz Sharif and Manmohan Singh in New
York, militants who had secretly crossed the Pakistani border killed eight Indian
security personnel and a civilian.
These latest attacks prompted uncompromising statements by Manmohan Singh who
chose his speech at the UN General Assembly to denounce Pakistan as the epicenter
of terrorism.
Indias President Pranab Mukherjee, on a foreign trip to Belgium, echoed these
words, condemning Pakistan for failing to apprehend terrorists operating on its soil.
In Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif must wrestle control over foreign policy from the army, the
institution that toppled him in a coup in 1999, and his ability to tame militant groups,
who threaten to jeopardize Pakistans security policy.
Some insist that the theater of war has moved from Kashmir to Afghanistan. In a
provocative essay for Brookings, A Deadly Triangle, William Dalrymple argued
that Afghanistan had become the site of an IndoPakistan proxy war.
Pakistans attitude to India is shaped by its fear of being caught in an Indian
sandwitch trapped between an ageold enemy to the south and a warridden, proDelhi
state to the north.
Though India has many interests in Afghanistan, none of which pose existential
threats to Pakistan.
First, stability in Afghanistan is necessary for regional stability and so preventing the
establishment of terror networks in Afghanistan is Indias security priority.
Second, in addition to many historical and cultural links, India and Afghanistans
social and economic ties run deep. They have signed a Strategic Partnership
Agreement, which commits India to a host of postconflict nationbuilding efforts. It
is for this reason that India is among Afghanistans largest aid donors.
For India, Afghanistan also represents a prestige project: India takes on the role of a
generous ally, assumes the mantle of a democracy promoter and wins credit for its
assistance with institution building. Indias activities are not entirely benign
Afghanistansmineral deposits are worth trillions of dollars and the country serves as

a market for Indian goods and services but nor are they an attempt to encircle
Pakistan.
Russia- Pakistan
The recent traction between Russia and Pakistan seems to be essentially based on
economics of trade and energy and the need for stability in South and Central Asia,
especially in Afghanistan.
terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan has the potential of inspiring
radical Islamists and flaming violence in Russias own restive northern Caucasian
territories.
President Putin has declared Afghanistan Situation to be a matter of direct concern
for Russias national security.
Russias 201st division continues with its deployment on the Tajik border with
Afghanistan. Tajikistan shares an approximately 1,300 kilometre long border with the
war ravaged country.
Engaging with Pak is a part of Putins Eurasian Union project.
China too has stepped up its engagement with both Afghanistan and Central Asian
countries, a Russian initiated SCO mechanism, by involving all the key regional
actors, in playing a constructive role in the Afghan crisis can help reinstate Russias
importance to the organisation. This can be one of the reasons why Russia supported
Pakistans candidature for the SCO.
Russias decision to participate in
o the creation of energy and transport corridors in the Eurasian region has far
reaching geopolitical implications.
o The TurkmenistanAfghanistanPakistanIndia (TAPI) pipeline,
o IranPakistan pipeline and
o Central AsiaSouth Asia (CASA1000) electricity project can fundamentally
alter the energy requirements of the energy deficient states.
o It also blends in with the concept of an energy club of the SCO.
The railroad transport corridor from Tajikistan to Pakistan, cutting across the
Wakhan sector, will ensure
o Russia and Central Asian countries getting an access to the Arabian Sea and
Indian Ocean through the Gwadar port,
o with Pakistan getting access to Russian and Central Asian markets.
o If this corridor is linked up with the Karakoram highway, China too becomes a
part of this sector.
o Chinese companies already have a major footprint in this corridor by virtue of
their operational control over the Gwadar port.
o The bigger picture can involve limiting the growing American presence
and influence in Eurasia.
Conclusion: Russia and India share a time tested relationship that is unlikely to be
affected by these overtures. Moreover, Indias perceived foreign policy drift towards
the West and its recent preference for western weapons over Russian ones does not
give it much leeway to influence Russias policy towards Pakistan, more so when
India itself is subtly trying to improve ties with its neighbour. However, there is a
realization that the current RussiaPakistan engagement has got to do more with
Afghanistan than be at the cost of Russias strategic partnership with India.9 The size
of Indias weapons market, capability to pay in hard currency and Russias own
special and privileged position with India is something which Pakistan can never
match. Pakistan may also be using the Russia card as a bargaining chip to show the

US that it has other options. Military exports to Pakistan from Russia, if and when
they happen, will not change the power equation in the subcontinent.
Pakistan China
Chinas relations with India form the competitive leg while its ties to Pakistan
constitute the cooperative leg.
The ChinaPakistan relationship is underpinned by traditional geopolitical interests.
These include concerns about India, about terrorism and religious extremism, and
about domestic and regional stability.
China and Pakistan have similar geographical and historical concerns with respect to
India that makes the two natural partners. These include territorial disputes in their
shared borders with India; a history of hostility and confrontation with India; and a
mutual interest in maneuvering to balance or contain Indias power and influence in
the region.
Chinas growing economic equities with India may be affecting its relationship with
Pakistan in subtle ways.
Terrorism, another shared concern, is also a potential wedge in China
Pakistanrelations. Chinas primary counterterror interests are focused on combating
extremism and separatism in Xinjiang and preventing extremist groups in Pakistan
and other bordering countries from aggravating its Xinjiang problems.
Pakistans counterterror concerns are broader. They involve national ethnic divisions,
resentment over perceived economic inequities, tribal conflicts, and multiple armed
separatist movements that challenge the government.
ChinaPakistan economic relations are weak but growing. PRC investments in
Pakistan are driven primarily by Chinas demand for energy and natural resources and
Pakistans need for infrastructure to accommodate the development of both.
o Chinese economic activity in Pakistan includes road, sea, and rail
transportation improvements, nuclear and hydropower projects, and mining.
Chinas economic relations with Pakistan offer immediate benefit to Pakistan and
longerterm benefit to China. Chinas investments in
o the Gwadar deep sea port,
o the Karakoram Highway, and
o planned rail lines have the potential to open up Chinas West to further
development by providing landlocked western China with its only ocean
access.
The United States and China share important existential concerns in Pakistan. Both
view stability in Pakistan as an important policy goal, and both see their interests
better served by secular government rule in Pakistan rather than by the ascension of a
hardline or fundamentalist regime.
Quickreads: India Pakistan
Pakistans conflict with India has made the promilitary groups more powerful.
While democracy has not been fully successful in Pakistan, there has been a strong
prodemocracy sentiment in the country. Pakistan has a courageous and relatively free
press and a strong human rights movement.
Indias conflict with Pakistan is also over strategic issues like the control of the
Siachen glacier and acquisition of arms including nuclear one.
India has blamed the Pakistan for using a strategy of lowkey violence by helping the
Kashmiri militants with arms, training, money and protection to carry out terrorist
strikes against India.

Its spy agency, Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), is alleged to be involved in various
antiIndia campaigns in Indias northeast, operating secretly through Bangladesh and
Nepal.
The government of Pakistan, in turn, blames the Indian government and its security
agencies for fomenting trouble in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.
India and Pakistan also have had problems over the sharing of river waters and are
not in agreement over the demarcation line in Sir Creek in the Rann of Kutch. The
dispute seems minor, but there is an underlying worry that how the dispute is settled
may have an impact on the control of sea resources in the area adjoining Sir Creek.
India continues to view the progress in the trial underway in Islamabad on the
Mumbai terror attacks, as an important marker of Pakistans commitment to combat
terrorism emanating from its soil. The trial has witnessed repeated adjournments, non
appearances of lawyers, and frequent changes of prosecution lawyers, apart from
change of venue.
Most scenarios paint a bleak picture for Pakistan. Instability in Pakistan is likely to
increase further.
A section of the Army might get radicalized reflecting the broad trend in the society.
Parts of Pakistan might become ungovernable.
The escalating violence in Karachi and the inability of the government to control it is
a symptom of the deeper malaise in Pakistan.
The military will continue to play an important role in Pakistans governance.
India will need to develop policy options to deal with such a Pakistan.
The danger of terrorist attacks on India might increase.
There is growing dissatisfaction within Pakistan over the way the country has been
misgoverned in the past 60 years. But whether such disaffection translates into more
rational approach towards India is still a question mark.
The Pakistan governments decision to accord Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to
India is a positive step forward, but there are indications that spoilers are at work to
stifle, if not reverse, the process of trade liberalisation with India. If India is able to
stabilise its own part of J&K, the salience of Kashmir in IndoPak relations might
diminish, making it easier for India to deal with Pakistan.
Pakistans Army may not remain a monolith. A part of it may be radicalised. Will a
section of Pakistans Army favour rapprochement with India? The scenario has low
probability but if it materialises, it would have a major impact on Pakistans internal
dynamics.
Likewise, for IndoPak relations a direct or indirect dialogue with the Pakistani
military could change the trajectory.
The key adjustment in Indias policy will require dealing with different segments of
Pakistans society and polity at both the official and the nonofficial level.
India must deal with Pakistan beyond the governmenttogovernment framework.
Another dimension of cooperation is Disaster management. Deeper concerns of
recurrent floods can be addressed by both sides.
04C: Indias Neighborhood: Bangladesh

Water Resources
India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers between them.

Teesta and Feni rivers along with the festering lack of confidence due to a perceived
Indian unilateral action at the Farakkha Barrage.
If China builds dams on the Brahmaputra, Bangladesh will suffer the most.
Global warming and the consequent rise in sea levels and pushing of Bangladeshis to
upstream locations will ensure an even higher stress.
Joint River Commission for water management was set up in 1972 by both the
countries.
In 1983, an adhoc water sharing agreement was reached between India and
Bangladesh, whereby both countries were allocated 39% and 36% of the water flow
respectively.
1996 bilateral treaty that established a 30-year water-sharing arrangement
between the two countries.
The Teesta which has its source in Sikkim flows through the northern part of West
Bengal in India before entering Bangladesh, where after coursing through about 45km
of irrigable land, merges with the Brahmaputra River (or Jamuna when it enters
Bangladesh).
In September 2011 when Indias Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, was due to
sign a pact with bangladesh regarding equal access and use of the Teesta River but the
domestic elements influenced the decision of the government
A regional watersharing agreement along the lines of Indus Water Treaty with
India, China, Bangladesh, Burma and Thailand is the need of the hour, but the
upper riparian in this matter will pursue a cold water war strategy unless forced to
see reason.
International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) and Justice
In 20th century, international crimes flourished. The horrors of the twentieth century
are many. Acts of mass violence have taken place in so many countries and on so
many occasions it is hard to comprehend. According to some estimates, nearly 170
million civilians have been subjected to genocide, war crimes and Crimes Against
Humanity during the past century. The World Wars lead the world community to
pledge that never again would anything similar occur. But the shocking acts of the
Nazis were not isolated incidents, which we have since consigned to history.
Hundreds of thousands and in some cases millions of people have been murdered in,
among others, Russia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Sierra Leone, Chile, the Philippines,
the Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda, Iraq, Indonesia, East Timor, El Salvador,
Burundi, Argentina, Somalia, Chad, Yugoslavia and Rwanda in the second half
of the past century.But what is possibly even sadder is that we, meaning the world
community, have witnessed these massacres passively and stood idle and inactive.
The result is that in almost every case in history, the dictator/president/head of
state/military/leader responsible for carrying out these atrocities despite in
Nuremberg has escaped punishment, justice and even censure. In Bangladesh also,
they almost escaped the punishment but 2009 was the wake up call.
Background

Bangladesh had a violent birth in 1971: The country then called East Pakistan was
engulfed by torture, rape, masskilling and other acts of genocide.
The army had the support of many of East Pakistans fundamentalist groups,
including JamaateIslami, which remains Bangladeshs largest Islamic party.
Estimates of the death toll vary from around 300,000 to the current governments
reckoning of 3mone in 20 of the population at that time.
The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) was a tribunal in Bangladesh that aims to
investigate and administer justice regarding the war crimes, crimes against humanity,
genocide and crimes against peace committed by Pakistan army and their local
collaborators during the war.
One of the electoral manifesto agenda of the Awami League was to initiate the trial
process of war criminals.
The proceedings of the tribunal were accused of being malpractices. The presiding
judge of Bangladeshs International Crimes Tribunal, Mohammed Nizamul Huq had
resigned.
The ICT has handed down sentences including death on prominent leaders of the
second biggest opposition party and most important ally of the BNP, the Islamist
JamaateIslami (JI) including death sentence to Abdul Quader Molla. Ali Ahsan
Mohammad Mojaheed and Ghulam Azad were also sentenced to death.
Migration
Bangladeshis form the largest group of migrants in India. As per 2001 census there
are 3,084,826 people in India who came from Bangladesh.
Bangladesh is one of the few countries (perhaps along with some regions of India)
where population growth has not stabilized. With an area or an economy that is not
expanding at a commensurate rate, this puts a massive stress on the available
resources.
In short, this problem cannot be handled by Bangladesh and often gets diverted to
India, which borders it on three sides.
In India, this problem is seen in terms of the illegal immigration issue. It is not a
wishful or a fantastical conspiracy theory, but Demographic change in the border
districts of West Bengal and Assam is a reality.
o Dual immigration laws followed in India; The illegal migrants (determination
by Tribunal) Act 1983 was followed in Assam and the Foreigners Act 1946 is
for the rest of the country.
o Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has also given its assessment stating that
some Bangladeshis are being trained as saboteurs in Pakistan, acting as a
security threat.
o Another difficulty is the riverine terrain of the border area, which makes
fencing difficult and poor border management policy
o Despite the border agreement signed by the then Prime Minister Indira
Gandhi and Sheik Mujibur Rahman. 40.6 Km still remains undemarcated and
another 6.5 km is still disputed.
o Bangladeshi migrants fulfill the technical requirements of an Indian citizen by

possessing voters identity card, ration card, putting the local authorities on a
fix.
o Further problem exists because the migrants have settled down permanently,
encroached lands and are enjoying the rights of natural citizens.
Indian government for recognizing illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, the most
publicized is the Illegal Migrant Determination Tribunal (IMDT), which was
established by Parliament in 1983. It was designed especially for Assam State, where
the issue of illegal immigration has long been a cause of social and ethnic tension.
Unfortunately, the IMDT did not perform as expected. From its inception in 1983
through to the 2000s, the tribunal identified a mere 10,000 illegal immigrants, and
deported only 1,400. Considering its poor performance, the Supreme Court of India
struck down the law in 2005 and required that the Foreigners Act of 1946 be enforced
throughout India to deport illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.
Commonality of language, culture and religion between the two countries emerged as
a major challenge in identifying immigrants, making deportation extremely difficult.
The immigrants speak the same language as many Indians, and often have familial
connections that make it easy to assimilate with the local population. Bangladeshs
consistent denial that its citizens are illegally crossing the border also complicates
matters. Even when Indian authorities have identified illegal immigrants, deporting
them becomes almost impossible given the reluctance of Bangladeshi authorities to
cooperate.
BSF estimate shows that most of the illegal immigration is happening in the riverine
territory than in fenced areas. Riverine structure makes around 1/3 of the demarcated
borders, so there is really not much that can be done except a huge vigil and raising
multiple battalions of BSF.
It is visible in the riots in various districts of Assam where resentments are apparent.
All this requires political will, unfortunate as it does not exist in India in a broad
measure.
Extradition
Various groups such as ULFA, NDFB, NSCN(IM), KLO, NLFT, ATTF etc. have
been harbored in Bangladesh in the past and continue to be
The opposite case of Shanti Bahini is a moot point because as per the agreement with
the Sh. Hasina government and the previous regimes, these have now been disbanded.
ULFA Chief Paresh Barua said to be operational from Bangladesh.
Bangladesh had already stopped HUJI activities from its soil.
India had signed an extradition treaty with Bangladesh.
Trans-Shipment
If Bangladesh wants to economically tie itself to the Indian growth engine, it has to
see reason and enable transshipment of goods from India to Indian territories in the
Northeast.

A regional hub that helps Bhutan, East Nepal, parts of Burma and parts of Yunnan
will only ensure the economic benefits for Bangladesh.
India (and especially parts of Tripura and Meghalaya) stand to gain a lot by having a
shorter route to the Bay of Bengal and it should not be surprising that these states are
at the forefront of the transshipment issue.
South Asian Growth Quadrangle region (SAGQ) consisting of Bangladesh, Bhutan,
Nepal and India as a practical solution to the region's socioeconomic problems.
this region was the gateway to the fast growing and lucrative markets in South Asia,
Far East and Australia.
The projects could be identified in the areas of energy, hydel resources, oil, gas and
coal and industries based on natural resources like tea, jute, aromatic plants, herbs and
medicinal plants, besides the industries of leather, cotton and textiles and fisheries
Sea boundary demarcation
New Moor Island (Hariabhanga River)
is also a controversy.
India and Bangladesh have reasonably
wisened up to the possibility of joint
exploration of contentious water blocks
for oil exploration purposes.
The same cannot be said about Burma
and Bangladesh. There is an imminent
possibility of a war between the trigger
happy (despite a numerically minority
armed forces strength) Burmans and the
Bangladeshis and India will be forced to
pick sides rather than advise from a
cautionary role.
To delimit their maritime boundary, India applies the equidistance principle and
Bangladesh claims one based on equity principle.
Enclaves
India to exchange 111 of its enclaves in Bangladesh in return for 51 Bangladesh
enclaves in India.
Under the agreement India would give up claims for just over 17,000 acres of land
which will be transferred to Bangladesh.
In turn Bangladesh would cede around 7,000 acres, which would then join Indian
territory.
A land swap agreement would also give citizenship rights to close to 52,000 people:
37,000 on the Bangladesh side and close to 15,000 on the Indian side.
the IndiaBangladesh Land Boundary Agreementhas implications not only for
foreign relations but also for larger questions of human rights, the right to livelihood
and even the larger contours of what constitutes foreign policy in India today.
4D: Indias Neighborhood: Bhutan, The Trusted Friend

India Bhutan
747 A.D.when the great Indian saint Padmasambhava introduced Buddhism in
Bhutan, which has since then permeated all aspects of Bhutanese life.
Chinas invasion of Tibet (191012) and subsequent claims made on Bhutan resulted
in the signing of the Treaty of Punakha in 1910 with British India.
India sponsored Bhutans application for UN membership in 1971.
Major Support:
o Kholongchu Hydropower Project (600 MW), Inaugurated by PM in June.
o The Chhukha (336MW),
o Kurichhu (60MW), and
o Tala (1020MW) Hydro Power Projects;
o The Penden and Dungsam Cement Projects; and the Paro Airport Project.
2013 saw some high level exchanges with the visit of His Majesty Jigme Khesar
Namgyal Wangchuck, the King of Bhutan to India as the Chief Guest to the 64th
Republic Day celebrations.
In the first overseas visit after being elected Prime Minister, Lyonchhen Tshering
Tobgay (PMTT) visited India from 30 August to 4 September, 2013
PM of India also chose Bhutan for the first foreign visit. He addressed the joint
session of the parliament.
India shares a 605 kilometres (376 mi) border with Bhutan and is its largest trading
partner, accounting for 98 percent of its exports and 90 percent of its imports.
GoI extended a standby credit facility of Rs 1000 crores to RGoB to help Bhutan
overcome the rupee liquidity crunch. This Credit Facility was provided at a
concessional interest rate of 5% per annum. It is valid for 5 years.
The First Five Year Plan (FYP) of Bhutan was launched in 1961. Since then, India
has been extending financial assistance to Bhutans FYPs. The 10th FYP ended in June
2013. India's overall assistance to the 10th FYP was a little over Rs. 5000 crores,
excluding grants for hydropower projects
Three hydroelectric projects (HEPs) totaling 1416 MW, (336 MW Chukha HEP, the
60 MW Kurichu HEP, and the 1020 MW Tala HEP), are already exporting electricity
to India. In 2008 the two governments agreed to further develop a minimum of 10,000
MW hydropower generation capacity by 2020 and identified ten more projects. Of
these, three projects totaling 2940 MW (1200 MW PunatsangchuI, 1020 MW
PunatsangchuII and 720 MW Mangdechu HEPs) are under construction and are
scheduled to be commissioned in the last quarter of 20172018.
There are about 56,000 Indian nationals living in Bhutan, employed mostly in hydro
electric projects and construction and roads industry. In addition, between 8000 and
10,000 day workers come into Bhutan everyday to work in border towns
Sino-Bhutan Relations

Bhutan is the only country in South Asia which does not have diplomatic relations
with China
Bhutan forms one of the fingers of Chinas five finger policy.
China considers Tibet as the palm consisting of five fingers policy namely, Ladakh,
Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh.
The peripheral policy forms the core of Chinas external strategy. Relations with these
countries help to avoid external instabilities that may cause any internal frictions.
China needs a peaceful and stable periphery for its Peaceful Development/Rise.
The PRC has outlined its plan of extending the railway network from Lhasa to
Zangmu on the Nepal border.
According to this blueprint, yet another line will branch out midway from the line at
Shigatse. This line will move east and go up to Yadong, at the mouth of Chumbi
Valley strategically located at the tri junction of IndiaChinaBhutan.
Bhutan has four disputed areas that stretch from Dhoklam in the west, Charithang,
Sinchulimpa and Dramana pasture land.
Bhutan has been a strong ally of India and has refrained from establishing relations
with China. It was concerned over the takeover of Tibet in 1950 and was anxious that
its sovereignty would be compromised because of Chinese claims to Bhutan as part of
a greater Tibet. This had led to the closure of the TibetanBhutanese border in the
north.
Election in Bhutan
July 13, 2013 : the defeat of ruling incumbent Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) by
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP
It must be noted that in the National Assemblys primary election held on May 31,
DPT got 33 votes as compared to 12 of PDP.
Government of India had stopped subsidizing kerosene and cooking gas for Bhutan in
the first week of July.
Indian government was unhappy with DPT leader and Bhutanese Prime Minister
Jigme Y. Thinley because it held that Thinley was arbitrarily running his foreign
affairs.
Still there are many official and unofficial arrangements that ensure whoever is in
power there will have to abide by the interests of India while shaping Bhutans
internal and external policies.
In Rio de Janeiro Bhutans PM Thinley had an informal chat with the then Chinese
Premier. China is Bhutans immediate neighbor other than India despite this was the
first meeting between both heads of governments.
Bhutans all ten fiveyear plans till date have been supported by India and many hydel
projects too are dependent on Indias aid (benefitting India only)
Bhutan procured 15 Chinese buses by Bhutan in particular that invited Indias ire.
Indian government is aware of Chinese plan to lay rail line up to Chumbi Valley
located at the interjection of India (Sikkim)BhutanChina (Tibet)

The very day this project is completed; Bhutan will become free from the obligation
that arises due to its threesided land locked territory from India.
Apart from cutting subsidy on oil and gas to Bhutan, India has also announced nonpayment
of excise duty refund and scrapping subsidy on power generated from Chukha hydel project.
4E: Maldives, The Sinking Country

Maldives on Ground
The second multiparty presidential elections took place in September 2013.
There were four leading candidates in the fray: former president Mohamed Nasheed
representing the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP); recent president Mohamed
Waheed of Gaumee Ithihaad Party (GIP); Abdulla Yameen (halfbrother of former
president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom) of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM);
and Gasim Ibrahim of the Jumhoree Party.
Nasheed was contesting on the main plank of restoring democracy, development and
diplomacy.
After dramatic twists and turns in terms of postponements and annulments, Abdulla
Yameen, a fourtime parliamentarian and halfbrother of former President Maumoon
Abdul Gayoom, was sworn in as the sixth President of Maldives on 17 November
2013.
He got 51.39 per cent of the votes, while former president Mohammed Nasheed got
48.61 per cent of the votes. Despite trailing Nasheed by more than 17 per cent (46.93
per cent for Nasheed vs. 29.72 per cent for Yameen) in the first round,
Yameen managed to win the second round mainly because of support from a wider
coalition of parties: Maldives Development Alliance, Adhaalath Party, Jumhooree
Party, GIP and Islamic Democratic Party.
Interestingly, this was a repeat of the 2008 trend when the secondplaced candidate
Nasheed went on to win the presidential runoff with the support of several parties
against the then incumbent Abdul Gayoom.
Despite losing by a thin margin (6,022 votes), the MDP leader Nasheed graciously
and sincerely accepted defeat. He neither challenged the elections in a court of law
nor took to streets to force another round of elections.
Since the Maldivian economy was mostly outwardlooking, with tourism and fisheries
contributing about 50 per cent of the GDP, the global economic slowdown had a
severe impact in addition to the political crisis.
Internally, the issue was high government expenditure. Unemployment was another
serious issue staring at the government with the unemployment rate at a twofigure
mark in 2013.
The ouster of foreign entities like GMR and Nexbis did not go down well with the
business community.
LashkareToiba, through its charitable front organisation, Idara KhidmateKhalq,
has established a foothold especially in the southern parts of Maldives in the garb of
relief operations after the 2004 tsunami. Events in the Middle East, Afghanistan and
Pakistan have also influenced Maldivians towards radicalisation. Lack of adequate
educational and employment opportunities have been pushing the Maldivian youth
towards jihadist groups.

Ali Jaleel, who was involved in the 27 May 2009 suicide attack on the ISI
headquarters in Lahore, was a Maldivian. Many remote islands of Maldives are also
ideal for instituting training facilities, especially on maritime aspects. The Local
Maldivians superior knowledge of the sea is a major asset to any terror group that
wishes to employ maritime terrorism.
Diplomatically, the image of the country suffered a huge dent due to the political
uncertainty of the past two years. For a brief period, the Commonwealth placed
Maldives in the CMAG (Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group) agenda, implying
its suspension from the grouping.
India maintained strict neutrality, though it nudged all parties to hold free and fair
elections. New Delhis only concern was political stability in the atoll country.
The multiparty democratic elections in the Maldives at present seem to be a victim of
the role played by the deep state in Maldives and the extraregional forces who
want their presence even if it means scuttling the nascent democracy in the Maldives.
India Maldives
In 1988, when a few mercenaries attempted power capture in Maldives, India had
averted a coup in Maldives by sending troops at short notice at the request of then
President Gayoom.
That Indian military intervention had come after the 1987 induction of an Indian
Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka at the Sri Lankan governments request.
The two episodes (IPKF and Maldives) established that India had legitimate interests
in the region and that India was looked upon by its southern neighbors as a provider
of security.
Maldives is a hot competitive spot for influence between India and China, aided by
Pakistan.
The democratic system instituted in Maldives in the last few years has not yet
stabilized and democratic institutions have not been working smoothly.
Maldives location in the Indian Ocean is critical for India. The growth of religious
extremism in Maldives has been a matter of concern for India, as has been the
increase in external influence.
The Indian prime minister visited Maldives for the 17th SAARC summit in November
2011. During the visit, India announced a standby credit facility of $100 million for
Maldives and promised help in setting up the Maldives Police Academy. India
subscribed fully to the $100 million in bonds issued by the Maldives monetary
authority.
In the defence and security sphere, Indias assistance to Maldives National Defence
Force (MDNF) in training, supply of equipment, capacity building, joint patrolling,
aerial and maritime surveillance and medical treatment has been immense. MNDF
personnel have been availing, on an average, 35 courses annually.
India and Maldives did not witness any problem in bilateral economic interactions
until GMR issue came to the fore. India was caught unawares on 27 November 2012
when Maldives announced the termination of a USD 511 million project with the
Indian infrastructure company GMR Infrastructure Limited (GIL).
Maldives was considered far away from Islamic radicalism. However, in the recent
years, Maldivians in increasing numbers have been drawn towards Pakistanbased
jihadist groups.
Lately, the Chinese have remained among the top visitors to the Maldives. Beijing has
evinced a keen interest in developing infrastructure in the Ihavandhoo, Marao and
Maarandhoo Islands of the Maldives. Therefore, it is not without reasons that the

current dispensation in Male holds the view that it will be to the detriment of the
Maldives to not engage with China.
What India Should do:
o India should send out a clear signal that any developments in Maldives are of
concern for Indias security.
o India and Maldives should establish a security dialogue mechanism so that
Maldives security is ensured and Indias security interests are addressed.
o India should extend a comprehensive assistance package to the Maldivian
government to address its developmental and security sector needs.
4F: Sri Lanka, Paying the Cost of Peace

India -Sri Lanka
The Indian states 72m people (compared with the islands 21m) are mostly ethnic
Tamils. Many backed their kin in Sri Lanka in the war. It remains home to some
100,000 refugees. And Tamil Nadus hostility to Sri Lanka is growing more overt.
India continues as a big aid donor, trading partner and investor. India must make sure
that no extrageogpolitical powers get undue benefits of the situation in Srilanka.
The gift of Buddhism is perhaps the most enduring of all ties and lays the foundation
for this longrooted friendship. The most sacred symbols of Buddhism the Sacred
Tooth, a relic of Lord Buddha gifted by King Guhaseeva, and the sapling of Sri Maha
Bo tree in Anuradhapura, which is believed to be from the same tree under which the
Buddha attained Nirvana were gifted from India. South Indian kings ruled the island
nation from time to time. The last few kings who ruled the Island were Nayakkar
kings. Yet, they protected the Sacred Tooth relic and respected Buddhist values and
Sinhalese culture.
Despite the shared history, culture and religion, IndiaSri Lanka relations in the
present context is discussed with regard to three key areas:
The Indias position on the 13th Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka,
Its stand with regard to the UNHRC resolution against Sri Lanka.
The fishermen issue in Tamil Nadu
Trawling and Fishermen
Among the many challenges that the Sri LankaIndia relationship faces at present, the
Tamil Nadu fishermen issue has gained widespread attention. When Indian fishermen
illegally violate the maritime boundary of Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan Navy arrests and
detain them.
When territorial boundaries are located in close proximity, these types of issues can
happen. Failure to agree on a suitable solution by both countries will only result in
continuation of this problem. It is important to count the concerns of Tamil Nadu in
finding a solution to the fishermen issue.
In the Palk Bay region, the minimum and the maximum distances between the coasts
of two countries are around 16 kms and 45 kms respectively.
The monitoring by Navy is also aimed at preventing possible return of LTTE cadres,
who fled from the island during the height of the conflict in 2009.

After war, there is a relaxation related to fishing thus giving more opportunity for
srilankan fishermen to explore.
Waters on the Indian side of the narrow Palk Strait are fishedout and polluted. So
600800 trawlers venture daily to Sri Lanka.
little fished during Sri Lankas civil war, from 19832009 due to the war and
restrictions.
The Joint Working Group (JWG) that met in January 2006 agreed to,
o examine the possibility of not arresting straying fishermen within five nautical
miles of the maritime boundary on either side.
o consider releasing the small fishing boats along with the fishermen on
humanitarian grounds; and
o enhance coordination between the two Navies to curb illegal activities.
One technical way of mitigating and minimising this issue could be by introducing
strict regulations on fisheries practices such as having a vessel monitoring system
(VMS) with transponders on board all the vessels. That gives the ability for the coast
guards from both nations to monitor the path of the vessels.
Geo fencing to determine the boundary between the two nations can also be used.
This would help in preventing any illegal vessel from entering each others territorial
water. This in turn will help to identify and minimise bottom trolling to protect the
marine environment.
Declaring the maximum amount of fish to catch would control excessive over fishing
(Quota Management System). There are many technical measures that could ease
tensions between the two countries.
As The Hindu reported on July 11, 2014 that India Sri Lanka will follow Fast Track
Approach in resolving the issue.
Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) and implications
Foreign policy is a prerogative of the central government and the larger national
interest should set the motion of foreign policy, not the local politics.
India maintains considerable leverage over the small island country owing to its
economic might, proximity and shared history. India has used that leverage for its
own strategic interests on several occasions, most notably to promote peace and
reconciliation in Sri Lanka and to protect the rights of Sri Lankan Tamils.
An eager China seeking to exert its influence in the region and gain a foothold in the
strategically important Indian Ocean.
China financed infrastructure projects such as the Port of Hambantota, the Mattala
Rajapaksa International Airport, KatunayakeColombo Expressway, the Lakvijaya
Power Plant, and the ultramodern Center for Performing Arts in Colombo.
By PM not attending CHOGM, We forgot to understand at the outset that CHOGM is
not a Sri Lanka event but an international one; the island state is just a venue. Indias
equations with the Commonwealth have to be kept in mind instead of where its
meetings are being hosted.
Indian Prime Minister making a personal visit to the Northeast of Sri Lanka could
have achieved two things: Seeing developments on the ground (since India donated a
large sum) and reaching out to the Tamils.
It was not in the coherence with the broader principles of Indias foreign policy like
Full participation in international conferences.

Impeachment of Srilankan Chief Justice
Shirani Bandaranayake, the 43rd Chief Justice of Sri Lanka, was impeached by
Parliament and then removed from office by President Mahinda Rajapaksa in January
2013 (Old Issue but Important).
Bandaranayake was accused of a number of charges including financial impropriety
and interfering in legal cases.
The impeachment followed a series of rulings against the government by the Supreme
Court, including one against a bill proposed by Minister Basil Rajapaksa.
Under Article 107 of the 1978 Constitution of Sri Lanka, a Chief Justice can only be
removed by an order of the President after a motion supporting the removal is passed
by a simple majority of Parliamentarians.
Firstly because the process set out in Standing Order 78A, which lays down the
current internal parliamentary procedure for impeachment of judges, is flawed.
There is a clear conflict of interest when the members submitting the impeachment
motion containing the allegations of misbehavior and the members of the Scrutiny
Committee investigating said charges are from the same political party. This is
because, unlike in countries like the United States of America where Senators can
vote on their individual convictions, in Sri Lanka Members of Parliament cannot or do
not vote contrary to their party line.
th
13 Amendment
The provincial council (PC) system in Sri Lanka was established as a result the Indo
Lanka Accord concluded between Sri Lanka and India on July 29, 1987.
The 13th Amendment and the provincial council system were conceived as a political
solution to the ethnic conflict.
Under the amendment Northern and Eastern Provinces were amalgamated. The PC
system was the crux of the Accord.
On 14 November 1987 the Sri Lankan Parliament passed the 13th Amendment to the
Sri Lankan constitution of 1978 and the Provincial Councils Act No 42 of 1987,
establishing provincial councils. Nine provincial councils were created by order on 3
February 1988.
The Ari Lankan govt finds it difficulties in devolving land and police powers to the
provinces.
Infact, there is a need to implement 13 plus that is to set up the upper house to give
more representation to the minorities.
Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC)
The commission was mandated to investigate the facts and circumstances which led to
the failure of the ceasefire agreement made operational on 27 February 2002,
They took 18 months to submit the report.
The commission concluded that
The Sri Lankan military didn't deliberately target civilians but they had been
killed by the Sri Lankan military, albeit accidentally, contradicting the
government's line that there were zero civilian casualties
The rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam repeatedly violated international

humanitarian law.

Major Recommendation
A special mechanism should be created to examine the cases of long term detainees
on a casebycase basis.
A list of names of those in detention be published.
Released detainees should be issued with a certificate of discharge so that they are not
taken into custody again.
Delays in the legal system should be looked into.
The government should issue a clear policy statement that private land will not be
used for government backed settlements.
Illegal armed groups be disarmed (high priority).
Immediate steps be taken so that the public can communicate with officials and
receive documents in a language that they understand.
Free movement on the A9 highway should be encouraged.
There should be better coordination and communication between government agents
and the security forces in normalising civil administration.
Human Rights Issues
All three resolutions focus on promoting reconciliation, accountability and human
rights in Sri Lanka while recognizing Sri Lankas sovereignty, independence, unity
and territorial integrity.
Each of the three resolutions points out that combating terrorism has to be carried out
by States within the framework of their international law obligationsin particular,
obligations under international human rights law, international refugee law and
international humanitarian law
The extrajudicial killings, the heavy presence of military, slow pace of the
reconstruction and rehabilitation, intimidation of journalists, enforced disappearances,
threats to independence of the judiciary and the rule of law, and discrimination on the
basis of religion are the main reasons behind the resolutions.
The resolutions were passed by UNHRC (United Nations Human Right Commission)
against SriLanka in a 47 member strong body.
One of the major issues is demilitarization of the area which govt says that will take
some time.
Appointment of an Independent Advisory Committee to monitor and examine
detention and arrest of persons taken into custody under any regulations made under
the Public Security Ordinance or the Prevention of Terrorism Act is not done yet.
Trilateral Cooperation on Maritime Security (TCMS)
India, Maldives and Sri Lanka (TROIKA) have signed an agreement on Trilateral
Cooperation on Maritime Security (TCMS) to address common maritime security
threats and challenges and enhance security through cooperative measures.

Objective is to enhance maritime security in the southern Arabian Sea through
Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), Long Range Identification and Tracking
(LRIT), Merchant Ship Information System (MSIS) and Automatic Identification
System (AIS).
They will also enhance Search and Rescue (SAR) coordination including training,
develop marine oil pollution response cooperation, expand the contents of the bilateral
exercises, exchange information on illegal maritime activities through the established
channels of communication.
The maritime troika is critical for international shipping transiting through the
Arabian Sea. The troika states are strategically located astride the sea lane that
connects the Strait of Hormuz to Straits of Malacca. The sea area between India and
Maldives is not a choke point per se but is fairly wide and can be termed high seas
strategic passageways where the bulk of merchant traffic funnels passes. The high
density of merchant traffic through these waters can potentially witness accidents and
pollution including dumping of waste that would have immense impact on the marine
environment with dire consequences for the tourism and fishing industry, particularly
that of the Maldives.
The troika states have witnessed terrorism from the sea. In 1988, there was an attempt
to overthrow the Maldivian government by some Sri Lanka based dissidents who
came from the sea with mercenaries but were later captured by the Indian navy. In Sri
Lanka, the LTTE (a terrorist group that has now been decimated) had developed a
powerful maritime combat capability with full control over the northern waters of Sri
Lanka. In 2008, India witnessed terrorism from the sea after terrorist embarked on
fishing boats landed at waterfronts in Mumbai.
Finally, it would be useful to explore the possibility of extending the TCMS to the
Malacca Strait Sea Patrol (MSSP), a maritime security initiative by Indonesia,
Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. It involves combined and coordinated aerial
surveillance under the Eyes in the Sky (EIS) programme, Intelligence Exchange
Group (IEG) and a number of operational security measures to enhance safety and
security of shipping in the Straits of Malacca. A close coordination between TCMS
and MSSP would add to sea lane security from southern Arabian Sea to west of South
China Sea.
4G: Nepal
As close neighbors, India and Nepal share a unique relationship of friendship and
cooperation characterized by open borders and deeprooted peopletopeople contacts
of kinship and culture.

It shares a border of over 1850 Kms in the east, south and west with five Indian
States Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand and in the
north with the Tibet Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China.
Approximately 6,00,000 Indians are living/domiciled in Nepal.
The IndiaNepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship of 1950 forms the bedrock of the
special relations that exist between India and Nepal. Under the provisions of this
Treaty, the Nepalese citizens have enjoyed unparalleled advantages in India, availing
facilities and opportunities at par with the Indian citizens. The Treaty has allowed
Nepal to overcome the disadvantages of being a landlocked country.
Over the years, many regimes in Nepal have raised the issue of revision of the treaty.
India has maintained that it is willing to examine all bilateral arrangements with a
view to further strengthening our relations
The Interim Election Government (IEG), in cooperation with the political parties and
the Election Commission, peacefully conducted the 2nd Constituent Assemblycum
Parliament Elections in Nepal on 19 November 2013.
GOI provided with the logistics support in successful conduction of elections.
Progress has made progress towards Constitution drafting with the formation of five
Constitution related Committees of CA.
The previous trade treaty revised in 1996 can be considered as a turning point in the
trade relations between the two countries. Since 1996, Nepals exports to India have
grown more than eleven times and bilateral trade more than seven times; the bilateral
trade that was 29.8% of total external trade of Nepal in year 199596 has reached
66% in 201213. The bilateral trade stands at US$ 4.7 billion in 201213.
Indian Investment in Nepal: Indian firms are the biggest investors in Nepal,
accounting for about 40% of total approved foreign direct investments.
Cooperation in Water Resources and River Training are one of the most important
areas of our bilateral relations and has immense potential. It is estimated that about
250 small and large rivers flow from Nepal to India and constitute an important part
of the Ganges river basis. These rivers have the potential to become major sources of
irrigation and power for Nepal and India, but without planning, are a source of
devastating floods in Nepals Terai region, and states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in
India. A threetier bilateral mechanism which was established in 2008 to discuss all
issues relating to cooperation in water resources and hydropower between the two
countries has been working well.
In the area of river training and embankment construction, Government of India has
been providing assistance to Nepal for strengthening and extension of embankments
along Lalbakeya, Bagmati and Kamla rivers.
India and Nepal have a Power Exchange Agreement since 1971 for meeting power
requirements in the border areas of the two countries taking advantage of each other's
transmission infrastructure.
Government of India (GoI) has extended two Lines of Credit (LoC) of USD 100
million and USD 250 million, to Government of Nepal (GoN) in the years 20062007
and 201112 respectively for the infrastructure projects. Cultural Relations.
Quickread: Nepal
Despite the current political crisis emanating from the inconclusive process of
Constitution making, in the next 20 years, a new Nepal will emerge.
It is likely to be republican and more democratic.
This could pave the way for a deeper and friendlier relationship between India
and Nepal. But uncertainties remain.

The new political system has not yet crystallised as the Constitution has yet to
be finalised.
The Maoists have been mainstreamed to a considerable extent and have
contributed two Prime Ministers in the last three years.
However, the big questions relating to federalism, the form of the Constitution,
language, economic system, etc., are still unresolved.
The next 20 years will most likely be taken up by the long and complicated
process of nationbuilding.
AntiIndianism in Nepal, hydroelectricity and open borders are the three major
issues studied in this volume.
Because India is a major factor in the life of an ordinary Nepali, antiIndianism
is a fact of political life in Nepal.
While millions of Nepalis benefit from close relations with India, the media
and political parties routinely accuse India of interference in their country. It is
unlikely that this tendency will disappear altogether.
Likewise, cooperation for the generation of hydroelectricity, which could
benefit both Nepal and India, has become a symbol of mistrust rather than a
catalyst for friendship.
This is likely to continue as the Nepalese people regard water as their most
important resource which they would not allow to be exploited by India.
Open borders, which bring so much benefit to India and Nepal and are a unique
symbol of friendship between the two countries, have become criminalised. In
the business as usual scenario, IndoNepal relations will continue to be
bedevilled by these factors.
However, it is possible to imagine scenarios where India emerges as a key
contributor to prosperity in Nepal.
India will need to review its policies and take steps to correct the existing
impression as an interfering neighbour.
Indian assistance should go towards building Nepals economy and society
irrespective of which party or coalition is in power.
Indias role should be that of a trusted partner in Nepal.
On the negative side, continued uncertainty in Nepal could push it into a deep
crisis. In such a scenario, Chinas influence might grow.
The unrest in Tibet could also fuel instability in Nepal.
Indias endeavour should be to involve Nepal in regional cooperation projects.
India will also need to shield its own Nepali speaking areas from instabilities in
Nepal.
India should avoid getting drawn into NepalBhutan tensions.
India will have to craft policies that would mitigate the negative effects of an
unstable Nepal and the growing influence of China.
The game changing event that can be imagined in Nepal could be the inability
of the political leaders to resolve the federal issue that is causing major and
minor revolts, particularly in Madhesh, close to the Indian border.
The federal question could result in fragmentation of Nepal. The growing
influence of China in Nepal could be a major factor in IndoNepal relations.

India might perceive Chinese presence in Nepal to be an acute security
dilemma. India will need to prepare itself for meeting such eventualities which
may have low probability but high impact.
4H: Myanmar Marching towards Democracy

Transition of Myanmar to Democracy
From 1962 to 2011, the country was ruled by the Military.
The first general election in last 20 years was held in 2010. This was hailed by the
junta as an important step in the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy.
It was boycotted by the main opposition group, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy (NLD) which had won a landslide victory in the previous multiparty
election in 1990 but was not allowed to govern.
A nominally civilian government led by President Thein Sein who served as a
general and then prime minister under the junta was installed in March 2011.
2008 constitution: A quarter of seats in both parliamentary chambers are reserved for
the military, and three key ministerial posts interior, defence and border affairs
must be held by serving generals.
US secretary of state visited Myanmar first time in 50 years.
The newly reelected President Obama followed suit in November 2012, and hosted
President Thein Sein in Washington in May 2013.
Myanmar is the world's largest exporter of teak and a principal source of jade, pearls,
rubies and sapphires. It has highly fertile soil and important offshore oil and gas
deposits. Little of this wealth reaches the mass of the population.
The EU followed the US lead, lifting all nonmilitary sanctions in April 2012 and
offering Myanmar more than $100m in development aid later that year.
Myanmar has huge foreign investment from 32 countries in four major sectors:
energy, oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing.
Indias Economic Interest in Myanmar
India has offered 150 million Dollars credit to Myanmar for establishing a
Special Economic Zone at Sittwe in Myanmar's Buyer's Credit Scheme under
National Export Insurance Account (NEIA)
By 2016 : India, Myanmar and Thailand agreed for trilateral connectivity
project from Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand .
The stateowned firm ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) won two onshore blocks
of the 18 that were bid out by the Myanmar Govt exploration.
India's investment in Myanmar is now around $273.5 million. It is expected to
soar to $2.6 billion over the next few years.
15% export is happening to India whereas import on only 3% from India.
Opportunities: IT sector, Healthcare , Infra, Telecom
India extended US$ 500 million Line of Credit
Air Services Agreement between India and Myanmar
Joint IndiaMyanmar Border Area Development
Establishment of the Advance Centre for Agriculture Research and Education
(ACARE)
Rice Bio Park at the Department of Agricultural Research in Nay Pyi Taw

Cooperation between Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies
and Indian Council of World Affairs.
Establishing of Border Haats across the border between Myanmar and India.
Ethnic Tensions
Since the 1950s, a number of ethnic armed groups have existed in Myanmar.
The largest ethnic group is the Burman people, distantly related to the Tibetans and
Chinese.
Burman dominance over Karen, Shan, Rakhine, Mon, Rohingya, Chin, Kachin and
other minorities has been the source of considerable ethnic tension.
Ceasefire deals signed in late 2011 and early 2012 with rebels of the Karen and Shan
ethnic groups.
Chinesebrokered talks with Kachin rebels in February 2013 also helped to strengthen
peace.
Violence between Buddhists and the Muslim Rohingya erupted in 2013, the official
response to which raised questions at home and abroad about the political
establishment's commitment to equality before the law.
The Rohingyas, numbering nearly a million and thereby constituting a significant
portion of the approximately 55 million population of Myanmar
They were stripped of Burmese citizenship in 1982.
The Geneva Convention on Refugees of 1951 and its Protocol of 1967 are being
grossly violated in respect of the Rohingyas.
The geographical proximity of the Rohingyainhabited Rakhine state of Myanmar
with Bangladesh has led a large number of Rohingyas to flee to Chittagong,
Bandarban and Cox`s Bazar districts of Bangladesh whenever there is political
turbulence in Rakhine state
There are 16 major ethnic groups, 14 of them em have agreed for ceasefire but not the
Kachins and the Palaung.
Kachins are much the most important as they are more numerous and, as many of
them are Christian (mainly Baptists), they attract much more attention and support
from the West, particularly America.
Since the deterioration of a 17year ceasefire between the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA), the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), and the
government in 2011, thousands have been killed in renewed fighting and more than
100,000 Kachins displaced.
The continuing Kachin violence, together with the slaughter of the Muslim Rohingya
people in Rakhine state in 201213, have been major blots in the reforming
governments image.
The talks are fruitful, the government complied with the ethnic armed groups' demand
for building a federal system of government, guaranteeing the democratic rights,
national equality and self-determination.
The rebels also agreed to the government's principles of non-disintegration of the
union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty.
Drug Trafficking

The United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) and International Narcotics
Control Board (INCB) also warned about the poor state of border security facilities
stating that the region could become a major transit point for illicit drugs .
Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent (AfghanistanPakistanIran) has made India's
border vulnerable to drug trafficking.
Myanmar in the Golden Triangle remains the main producer of illicit opium,
accounting for nearly 95 per cent of the total opium produced in the region.
Poor management of the IndiaMyanmar border creates more problems.
Myanmar hosted the ASEAN drug meeting in Yangon in November 2013 High
ranking officials from the Drug Enforcement Administration of the U.S, Australian
Federal Police and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime also participated. Leaders
agreed for stronger action.
Joint Border Working Group (Moreh Incident)
Four Northeast Indian states share the border with Burma: Arunachal Pradesh,
Nagaland, Mizoramand Manipur .The border at Moreh in Manipur, Burmese troops
crossed the line and entered the Holenphai village to erect camps, claiming that the
region belonged to Myanmar and that work would not be stopped until the field
commander received orders otherwise from higher authorities.
This is a considerably new development, and authorities from the IndoMyanmar
Border Fencing Committee (IMBFC) set up by the Indian Government said on a visit
that certain sections of the border are not clearly defined and that neither India nor
Myanmar individually held the answers for this, stressing on the need for
comprehensive talks to settle the issue.
India has suggested Myanmar set up a Joint Border Working Group, JBWG to address
the issue of demarcation of border between the two countries.
This follows attempt by Myanmarese Army to construct a defence post near an
undemarcated border pillar.
Terrorism in India: New Dimension
Interrogation of David Headley, an accused of 26/11 Mumbai attack, yielded that
Pakistani terrorist organization LashkariTaiyyaba had prepared a video of
Mahabodhi Temple in 2010.
RAW is aware that Rohingya radicals are receiving funds from Saudi Arabia,
training from Pakistan and weapons from Thailand.
links between Rohingya radicals with terrorist groups like the LeT and Jaishe
Mohammed (JeM) of Pakistan, and HarkatulJihad alIslami and Jamaate
Mujahideen of Bangladesh.
Arakan Rohingya Nationalist Organization (ARNO) and Rohingya Solidarity
Organisation (RSO) were among the groups who were trained in Afghanistan camps
and were and are active.
Role of Myanmar in fighting Insurgency

The insurgent outfits of Northeast India have lost sanctuaries in Bhutan, Nepal and
Bangladesh.
12th BIMSTEC ministerial meeting, have adopted the BIMSTEC Convention for
Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organised
Crime and Illicit Drug Trafficking.
ULFA chief Paresh Barua taking shelter in the Kachin state of Myanmar is
supposedly carrying out activities against India.
India and Myanmar have agreed to share intelligence to deal with insurgent groups
Indian governmentinitiated crossborder projects like the TamuKalewa highway,
Tamanthi River hydroelectricity and offshore blocks in Bay of Bengal and the A1 and
A7 gas blocks in Arakan region
There is not much incentive for Myanmar to take any action against them.
Myanmar lost 2025 soldiers in an operation against an NSCN (K) faction.
India is willing to provide them with better logistical support and a stake in the
maintenance of better relations, Myanmar would not be very keen on helping India
with its insurgency problem.
.
Constitution and Role of Military
A key issue is whether the role of the military, as defined by the Constitution of
Myanmar, will be changed.
A constitution in any democracy must clearly define the position of the military and
provide for appropriate national defence, while providing mechanisms to prevent the
misuse of power.
There should be civilian control over the military, and the military should be
subordinate to the executive arm of government in particular.
To achieve this, the military cannot also be part of the legislature, nor have the power
to appoint ministers.
A range of constitutional approaches can limit military power.
Some constitutions adopt a minimal approach and briefly refer to the military as
subordinate to the executive, leaving other details for further regulation by the
legislature.
Others take a more expansive approach and set out in detail the role of the military
and the limits of its powers.
In Myanmar the military is under the control of the Defence Services Commanderin-Chief, who is appointed by the President.
But the Presidents appointment is subject to the approval of the National Defence
and Security Council, a majority of whose members are from the military.
In practice, this means the military has significant influence in appointing its own
commander.
The Constitution does not specify the term of the Commander-in-Chief, the
qualifications the position requires, or the circumstances in which he could be
removed from his position.

In contrast, the office of the President has a clear term, the candidate must meet set
requirements, and there is a clear process for removal from office.
There are further differences in relation to the composition of Parliament and the
election of members. The CommanderinChief has the power to nominate the
Defence Service personnel in both houses of Parliament, which makes up 25 per
cent of the seats. He also has the power to recommend the appointment of the
Minister of Home Affairs, Border Affairs and Defence.
The 2008 Constitution creates a complex relationship between the President, the
Commander-in-Chief and the military-dominated National Defence and Security
Council.
President appears to be subject to greater regulation, at least in comparison to the
Commander-in-Chief.
In addition to being subordinate to the executive, the military must not be immune
from the law and should also be required to comply with human rights obligations.
There are several different approaches to military justice in democratic countries. In
some systems, a crime committed by a military officer may be heard by the general
courts, and in other contexts such cases are heard by a system of special military
courts.
The Constitution of Myanmar also provides for a system of courts martial, with an
ultimate appeal to the CommanderinChief.
There is no right to appeal to the Supreme Court in Myanmar, which means that the
decision of the CommanderinChief is not subject to review.
This is why it is important that the current constitutional amendment process clarify
the role of the military. Formal changes to ensure that the military is subject to the
control of the executive, and that there are clear limits to its power, would be an
important step for Myanmar to flourish.
Role of India in Myanmars transition to a successful democracy
Buddhist installations in India will be target thus India must ensure that the transition
is done without any damage.
The recent easing of Western economic and financial sanctions as reward for political
reforms in Myanmar opens the way for India to play a more proactive role. At the
same time, New Delhi will give priority to securing its own economic and commercial
interests, including oil and gas exploration, visavis rising competition against new
and old powers in the region.
India's economic involvement in Myanmar, largely through the public sector, has in
the past been marred by complaints about implementation delays and quality control.
Thus private sector should be encouraged from Indian side.
China represents another challenge. China was close to the previous authoritarian
regime in exchange for commercial concessions, thus there would be a shift under
civil rule. Thus India can protect Myanmars interest by giving more options for trade
and investment.
India must ensure human right protection through economic engagement which was
not observed by china as the government's suspension of the US$3.6 billion
Myitsone dam project commissioned to Chinese investors shows insensitivity at

Chinas part for local community.
Furthermore the lack of connectivity and poor railroad links in border areas of
Myanmar and India's contiguous northeastern region poses a formidable challenge for
making Myanmar a land bridge between South and Southeast Asia.
India's "Look East" aims to fill this infrastructural gap, including by building roads to
connect the two countries.
Initiatives dealing with unresolved ethnic conflicts have raised hopes for peace, India
must push for governments needs to move beyond temporary ceasefires and resolve
underlying political issues.
India must teach Myanmar valuable lessons in multiculturalism from India, especially
in the fields of adopting federal democratic practices and managing ethnic conflicts.
Strategic Importance of Myanmar

First, it wants to trade directly with Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and
Malaysia. Second, it would be in Indias interest to keep China at bay in Myanmar.
But in order to do so, the Northeast needs to be pacified.
Myanmar is the second largest of Indias neighbours and the largest on our Eastern
flank.
Myanmar provides the Eastern littoral of the Bay of Bengal. An unfriendly Myanmar
hosting foreign naval presence would be a grave threat to Indias security.
Myanmar has a big border with China in the North, contiguous with the Sino Indian
disputed border. Military analysts can gauge the various strategic complications that
arise from such a configuration in case Myanmar is under unfriendly influence.
Myanmar bridges South Asia and India with SouthEast Asia. It also acts as a buffer
between Indias North Eastern States and the Southern provinces of China.
There is a need that India must engage with Myanmar Politically, Militarily and
economically.
In Indias quest for strategic partnerships, Myanmar acquires top priority being a vital
geostrategic entity on her Eastern flank and sharing a long border with China.
Myanmars providing the major Eastern littoral to the Bay of Bengal imparts added
strategic significance to Indias naval strategies. Myanmar has not permitted China to
turn it into a strategic destablising entity for India, like Pakistan. India should
therefore make a determined effort to forge a strategic partnership with Myanmar.
4I: Peoples Republic of CHINA (PRC)

CHINA: Neighbor, Competitor, Partner
India China Major Issues

There are four main issues of core interest to India.
1. Uninterrupted flow of Chinese arms, including nuclear, to Pakistan.
2. Unresolved boundary issue along with maintenance of peace and tranquility on
the border.
3. Huge trade imbalance
4. Trans river waters.
5. Strategic competition
China Pakistan Bhai-Bhai
Nearly 55 per cent of Chinas arms exports goes to Pakistan.
Chinas arms exports world wide rose by an unprecedented 162 per cent for the
period 20082012.
China has replaced the UK as the fifth largest arms exporter in the world.
China played a central role in helping Pakistan to become a nuclear weapons state
It is suspected that China is helping Pakistan to fuel the fastest growing nuclear
arsenal in the world.
China stands for equivalence between India and Pakistan and has criticized the
discriminatory nature of the NSG waiver given to India and demanded that the same
be given to Pakistan.
India China Border Issue
McMahon, foreign secretary of Britishruled India signed India Tibet border with
Tibet.
China was afforded mere observer status at the negotiations preceding the agreement.
There are 3 sectors : Western (J&K), Middle (Uttarakhand), and Eastern (AP)
Relations between contemporary China and India have been characterized by border
disputes, resulting in three major military conflicts the SinoIndian War of 1962,
the Chola incident in 1967, and the 1987 SinoIndian skirmish.

Tawangs ethnic Monpa inhabitants offered fealty to Tibet's rulers and 6th Dalai Lama
was from Tawang.
1962: China took control of Akshai Chin.

Both countries appointed special envoys, declared outline deal in 2005, containing the
guiding principles and political parameters for a final settlement. It says that it
would involve no exchange of settled populations which implied that China had
dropped its historical demand for Tawang.
2012: India announced that it would deploy another 60,000 troops to Arunachal.
China was also unpleased with India's reactivation of advanced landing grounds at
Daulat Beg Oldie, Fukche and Nyoma and construction of other infrastructure along
the LAC over the last fourfive years.
2013: Depsang Valley Chumar incidents proved that there is an urgent need to
resolve the border disputes peacefully and as soon as possible under the guiding
principles.
Present agreement on the border, signed during the visit of PM, is a further refinement
of the agreements of 1993 and 1996 that seek to stabilize and maintain peace and
stability in the border areas.
Border Defence Co-Operation Agreement: 2013
Periodic meetings will be held between officers of the regional military headquarters,
specifically between the Chengdu military region and Indias Eastern Command,
and Lanzhou military region and the Northern Command.
Higherlevel meetings between the two ministries of defence.
The right to seek a clarification is enumerated in the agreement..
In the event of faceoff both sides shall exercise maximum selfrestraint, refrain from
any provocative actions, not use force or threaten to use force against the other side,
treat each other with courtesy and prevent exchange of armed conflict.
According to India, the pact doesnt affect Indias right to build infrastructure at the
border. There is recognition on both sides, like in all previous agreements 1993,
1996 and 2005 that the border is asymmetrical, that what is on their side is
different from our side. Each side will approach its security in its own way. With
these agreements both the sides hoped that it would help maintain peace and
tranquility in the border areas.
Daulat Beg Oldie Incident: 2013
Trade Deficit With China

The trade imbalance has touched USD 40 billion in 201213.
The flow of Chinese FDI into India is only US $ 282 million in the period April 2000
to July 2013.
If the trade imbalance has to be reduced then we need to encourage Chinese
businessmen and investors to visit India frequently and seek investment opportunities.

Visa liberalization has been held hostage by political considerations.
China stapling VISA is a political act and it is not as a matter of visa policy.
Our response must be political and not to kill trade and commerce by withholding the
visa liberalization agreement.
Major Exports by China
Electronic goods, machinery, organic
chemicals, project goods, fertilizers, iron and
steel, transport equipments, electric
machinery (except electronics).
Major Exports by India

Cotton raw & yarn, nonferrous metals, iron
ore, other ores and minerals, plastic&
linoleum products, spices,
Dyes/intermediates, machinery & instruments
and petroleum (crude& products).
Both sides agreed for cooperation on pharmaceutical supervision including
registration, stronger links between Chinese enterprises and Indian IT industry, and
completion of phytosanitary negotiations on agroproducts.
It is to be noted that purchase of zinc concentrates & copper concentrates worth USD
130 million, purchase of cotton yarn and cotton linter worth USD 93 million,
purchase of frozen fish/linter worth USD 68 million, were the prominent products for
which Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) were signed during the IndiaChina
Business Matchmaking Symposium for boosting exports from India to China.
May 2013, India and China signed three Memorandum of Understandings (MoUs) on
buffalo meat, fisheries and pharmaceuticals; and one agreement on feed and feed
ingredients.
In the recent visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping, China agreed to invest USD 20
Billion in India in various projects including industrial parks in Maharashtra and
Gujrat. It will also have the favorable impact on balance of payment.
Along with this the agreements cover a variety of areas including investments into the
road and port infrastructure of India, cooperation in space and in nuclear energy,
construction of industrial parks in India, joint efforts in combating terrorism, cultural
cooperation and a twin cities agreement between Mumbai and Shanghai.
Trans-Rivers Agreement
Major dams by china are 1> A 640 MW dam will be built in Dagu, 18 km upstream of
Zangmu. <2> 320 MW dam will be built at Jiacha, also on the middle reaches of the
Brahmaputura downstream of Zangmu. <3> At Jiexu, 11 km upstream of Zangmu.
<4>Zangmu; a 510 MW runoff the river project.
India China inked TransBorder River Agreement (TBRA) in October, 2013.
The pact extends a previous MoU to provide hydrological data in the flood season to
cover a longer time period. Here it has expanded the scope to discuss other issues of
mutual interest.
There is a need for Water Sharing Agreement on the lines of Indus Water Treaty.
China always maintained that cross border rivers are being developed with extra
responsibility.
String of Pearls Strategy
The tankers that move through Indian Ocean carry 80 percent of China's oil, 65
percent of India's and 60 percent of Japan's, making those waters crucially important

to three of Asia's great powers. A significant slowdown in tanker traffic whether
from diplomatic standoff, piracy or war could cripple these countries.
A string of pearls (SOP) strategy is a strategic move that involves establishing a series
of nodes of military and economic power throughout a region. Each node is a pearl
in the string, enhancing the overall power of the parent nation.
Under SOP, China increasing access to airfields and ports either by subsiding or by
cordial relationship or leasing. These include a facility in Gwadar and a port in
Karachi (both in Pakistan); a container facility in Chittagong (Bangladesh); and ports
in Myanmar along with Hambantota and Colombo (Srilanka).
Developing better diplomatic relations is also a crucial step in this strategy. Since the
strategy may rely on linking a series of pearls, it is important to ensure that each pearl
is also safe, and that it will not be threatened by neighboring nations.
Chinas Other Disputes
Even in best of times Japan and China treats each other as rivals. More
provocatively, Chinas ADIZ covers the uninhabited Senkaku islands, which China
calls the Diaoyu.
Japan has held these since the late 19th century, but
since the 1970s they have been claimed by China.
In September 2012 the Japanese government
bought from their private owner three of the five
islands it did not already own.
China claimed the move was an antiChina
conspiracy, and set out to undermine Japans
control of the islands, first by using incursions of
surveillance vessels, and later patrol aircraft, to
which Japans SelfDefence Forces have responded
by scrambling fighter jets.
China declared new Air Defense Identificatio Zone
(ADIZ)

Not only does the ADIZ cover Japaneseheld territory, it also overlaps significantly
with Japans own airdefence zone (see map). Meanwhile, running uncomfortably
close to both Taiwan (which also claims the Senkakus) and South Korea, it has
alarmed those neighbours too.
SOUTH CHINA SEA
The remote Spratly islands are claimed in whole by China and in whole or in part by
Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and
Vietnam. The Paracels are claimed entirely
by both China and Vietnam.
China wants to negotiate disputes over the
potentially resourcerich Spratly and Paracel
islands with its neighbours on a series of
bilateral talks. ASEAN would prefer to
present a united front. America tends to see
these matters in the ASEAN way.
Vietnam claims Paracel Island where
China wants to develop tourism.
The Philippines contingent then upset their
hosts by insisting on a communiqu that
mentioned their navys standoff with
Chinese vessels at Scarborough shoal, a ring
of mostly submerged rocks to the east of the
Paracels.
China does not want the issue settled by the
international courts nor by the UN
Convention of the Law of the Sea.
Maritime Angle
Nearly 40 per cent of the Chinese population, 5 per cent of cities, 70 per cent of GDP,
84 per cent of direct foreign investment and export products are generated within 200
km of coast.
In 1998, the Chinese government published a White Paper on marine economy which
identified twenty different sectors for the development of the national economy.
The China Ocean Information Center announced that the marine output in 2013 grew
7.6 per cent year on year to 5.43 trillion Yuan ($ 876 billion) accounting for 9.5 per
cent of the national economy.
China figures among the top countries in shipbuilding, ports (particularly container
cargo), shipping, development of offshore resources, inland waterways, marine leisure
tourism, and not to forget it is one of the top suppliers of human resources who are
employed by international shipping companies.
Seven of the top ten global container ports are in China and the Chinese shipping fleet
of 6,427 vessels ranks second behind Japan with 8,357 ships.

Similar successes are seen in Chinas fisheries production which is projected to reach
about 69 metric tonnes by 2022 and it will continue to be top world exporter with 10
metric tonnes by 2022.
These capabilities have been built over the past few decades and has placed China
among the major maritime powers of the world and top Asian maritime powers
beating both Japan and South Korea.
China is leveraging these capabilities and offering to develop maritime infrastructure
in friendly countries that are willing to accept the offer which at times makes an
attractive investment opportunity, and can help these exploit the seas to enhance
economic growth, and ensure food and energy security.
India needs to make major policy changes to develop maritime infrastructure, offshore
resources and exploit these on a sustainable basis.
Although India is pursuing the path of building a modern threedimensional navy with
nuclear submarines, a new appreciation of the multifaceted maritime economic
activity needs New Delhis attention.
India lacks maritime infrastructure and technology to exploit offshore marine organic,
mineral and hydrocarbon resources that are critical to ensure sustained economic
growth which is high on the current governments agenda.
Quick Comparison

Concluding Remarks on Neighborhood
Indias relations with its neighbours will depend upon developments in
individual countries but also the broader trends which shape the region as a
whole.
Several critical drivers that may influence the South Asian situation can be
demography, internal stability, economic growth, energy security, climate
change, food and water security, terrorism, antiIndia sentiments and external
powers.
Depending on how these drivers pan out, South Asia could see either a
cooperative or a conflict scenario.
For a cooperative scenario to materialize, the rising population must be turned
into an asset and the demographic dividend must be exploited through creation
of educational and employment opportunities.
There would be a need to invest in social and physical infrastructure as well as
greater regional cooperation.
Energy shortages must be overcome through investment in renewable sources
of energy.
The emphasis must be on inclusive growth and regional cooperation.
However, a conflict scenario in South Asia can also materialise. A slowdown in
economic growth could breed instability. The increasing population could
create pressures on energy, food and water availability. Indias policies might
be seen as interference leading to rise in antiIndia sentiments. Absence of
meaningful regional cooperation could lead to tensions and conflicts.
In the 20yearscenario, Indias relations with its neighbours will be dominated
by human security concerns. While Pakistan, its nuclear weapons and its nexus
with China will continue to present national security dilemmas, for which India
should be prepared at all times, Indias foreign policy agenda will be packed
with issues like terrorism, food, energy and water security issues and visa
regimes.
At present, regional integration in South Asia is limited. The situation will most
likely change in the next 20 years. Borders will become softer and connect
rather than divide.
India, being the preeminent country, will have to take the lead in forging
closer links with its neighbors and forging a sense of South Asian identity.
India will need not only a different policy outlook but also human, diplomatic
and financial resources to put in place policies which secure India by forging
closer links with her neighbors at different levels. Indias delivery mechanism
must be improved significantly if it has to earn the respect of its neighbors.
The next 20 years will see a rapid change in the neighborhood and will
therefore be years of uncertainty. If nothing is done now to prepare the country
for these uncertain years, India will suffer massively.
At the same, time through proactive policies India can look for opportunities
that will surely arise as the region changes.
05: Indias Look East Policy and

ASEAN
ASEAN
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8
August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration
(Bangkok Declaration) by the Founding Fathers of ASEAN, namely Indonesia,
Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Brunei Darussalam then joined on 7 January 1984, Viet Nam on 28 July 1995, Lao
PDR and Myanmar on 23 July 1997, and Cambodia on 30 April 1999, making up
what is today the ten Member States of ASEAN.
As set out in the ASEAN Declaration, the aims and purposes of ASEAN are:
To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the
region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to
strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast
Asian Nations;
To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the
rule of law in the relationship among countries of the region and adherence to the
principles of the United Nations Charter;
To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common
interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative
fields;
To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in
the educational, professional, technical and administrative spheres;
To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and
industries, the expansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of
international commodity trade, the improvement of their transportation and
communications facilities and the raising of the living standards of their peoples;
To promote Southeast Asian studies; and
To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and
regional organisations with similar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for
even closer cooperation among themselves.
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES
In their relations with one another, the ASEAN Member States have adopted the
following fundamental principles, as contained in the Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976:
Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and
national identity of all nations;
The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external
interference, subversion or coercion;
Noninterference in the internal affairs of one another;
Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner;
Renunciation of the threat or use of force; and
Effective cooperation among themselves.
ASEAN COMMUNITY
The ASEAN Vision 2020, adopted by the ASEAN Leaders on the 30th Anniversary
of ASEAN, agreed on a shared vision of ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian

nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together
in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caring societies.
At the 9th ASEAN Summit in 2003, the ASEAN Leaders resolved that an ASEAN
Community shall be established.
At the 12th ASEAN Summit in January 2007, the Leaders affirmed their strong
commitment to accelerate the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015 and
signed the Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an
ASEAN Community by 2015.
The ASEAN Community is comprised of three pillars, namely the ASEAN
PoliticalSecurity Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio
Cultural Community. Each pillar has its own Blueprint, and, together with the
Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Strategic Framework and IAI Work Plan
Phase II (20092015), they form the Roadmap for and ASEAN Community 2009
2015.
If it were a single country, the combined land areas of ASEAN would make it the
7th largest country in the world
ASEAN is on its way to becoming the 4th largest economy by 2050
ASEAN is more populated than Europe, with the worlds 3rd largest labor force
67 million ASEAN households are currently in the consuming class; it could double
to 125 million by 2025
Total ASEAN Facebook users make it the worlds 2nd largest Facebook
community
InterASEAN trade is less than 50% that of NorthAmerican FreeTrage Agreement
NAFTA or the European Union EU. The ASEAN Economic Community
AEC aims at developing trade, by freeing the movement of:
Goods & Services
Skilled Labor
Capital
ASEAN hosts 227 of the world companies with more than 1 Billion USD in
revenues, which is only 3% of the worlds total
ASEAN governments debt is under 47% of GDP, well below the UK or the US
ASEAN is the worlds 4th largest exporting region, behind the EU, US and China
Income differences between ASEAN member states are 7 times higher than the
EUs
ASEAN aims at creating jobs, prosperity and a single production base to become
more than just the sums of its 10 members
LOOK EAST POLICY of India

1992: India became sectoral dialogue partner.
1996: Asean Regional Forum
2002: ASEAN+1; Summit level meeting between ASEAN and India.
The only SEA states which had serious ties with India were from the communist bloc
Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.
During the Cold War, these states were also impoverished because of years of war
and social upheaval.
Based on the twin pillars of national prosperity trade and industry, other countries
moved forward.

The Look East policy has achieved positive results with improved IndoJapan
relations, transparency measures to demonstrate noncorruption, and most
importantly, Indias inclusion in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
Developing international events also altered the strategic calculus (Fall of USSAR,
Indias increasing closeness with USA)
India is not a security threat for SEA nations and along with it, it has the potential in
developing as a serious counter balance against Chinas growing influence in the
region
Factors Driving Look East Policy
o Need to counter China economically
o An emerging middle class
Containment from West Asia and Central Asia
o Fear in a growing regional hegemony: the race to project naval power in
South East Asian waters
There is an urgent need to improve the physical connectivity between ASEAN and
India; India must reform its economy along with better cooperation in Supply Chain
and Logistics management.
ASEAN: ONE VISION, ONE IDENTITY, ONE COMMUNITY
ASEAN Political security
Asean Economic Community Asean Socio Cultural
community
Community
ASEAN Ministerial Meeting ASEAN FTAs
Disaster Management
Asean Regional Forum
MEKONG Basin
Rural Development
development Cooperation
Easr Asia Summit and
Tourism etc
Dance, Naach Gaana etc
ASEAN +1; +3,
ASEAN covers a land area of 4.46 million km, which is 3% of the total land area of
Earth, and has a population of approximately 600 million people, which is 8.8% of the
world's population.
ASEAN CER: Australia and NEW Zealand.
ASEAN +3 = Japan, CHINA and S. Korea
Conclusion about any ASEAN related question: need for collective action,
cooperation and collaboration in the Asia Pacific region has never been felt more
acutely.
TREATY OF AMITY AND COOPERATION (TAC)
To promote perpetual peace, everlasting amity and cooperation and cooperation
amppng states.
Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national
identity of all nations
The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference,
subversion or coercion
Noninterference in internal affairs
Settlement of differences or disputes in a peaceful manner
Renunciation of the threat or use of force
Effective regional cooperation
Each country has to sign it before becoming member of any ASEAN related group.

ASEAN SUMMIT MEETING
2012
2013
2014
First time in the
The United States
history of ASEAN,
and China
they could not issue a wrestled for
joint statement.
influence in
Combodia is Pro
Southeast Asia
China and it halted
where the Chinese
looked to take
effort to criticize
advantage of the
China for its Naval

Brinkmanship in a
absence of U.S.
joint communiqu.
President Barack
To manage the
Obama to
dispute, these
showcase their
members wanted to
rising global clout.
have Binding
Maritime Code of
Conduct.
Was held in Myanmar in May,

2014
Reiterated the commitment to
further strengthen efforts to
enhance ASEAN integration
and narrow the development
gap.
calling on all parties to exercise
selfrestraint and
Emphasis on Nonuse of force,
refraining from taking actions
that would further escalate
tension and to work towards an
early conclusion of the Code of
Conduct in the South China Sea
(COC) according to UNCLOS.
ASEAN Regional Forum

To discuss strategic and Political Issues Foreign Ministers of 27 member countries
meet and discuss.
the 10 ASEAN member states (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam), the 10 ASEAN dialogue
partners (Australia, Canada, China, the EU, India, Japan, New Zealand, ROK, Russia
and the United States), one ASEAN observer (PNG) as well as the DPRK, Mongolia,
Pakistan, TimorLeste, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Achievements:
o It features decisionmaking by consensus, noninterference, incremental
progress and moving at a pace comfortable to all.
o The willingness among ARF participants to discuss a wide range of security
issues in a multilateral setting.
o The mutual confidence gradually built by cooperative activities.
o The cultivation of habits of dialogue and consultation on political and security
issues.
o The transparency promoted by such ARF measures as the exchange of
information relating to defense policy and the publication of defense white
papers and
o The networking developed among national security, defense and military
officials of ARF participants.
EAST ASIA SUMMIT (EAS)

The East Asia Summit is an annual meeting of national leaders from the East Asian
region and adjoining countries.
The first summit was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia on 14 December 2005.
18 Members (10+3+2+ India+USA+Russia).
In 2012 EAS:
o The Japanese prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, referred to the importance of
the United StatesJapan alliance in the light of Asian security issues.
o Obama reiterated his Pivot Asia and Maritime Security in South China Sea in
its national interest.
o Indias Focus was on trade and disaster management. India appreciated
Building a Regional Framework for Earthquake Risk Management.
In 2013 EAS:
o China warned extra regional powers not to interfere in south China sea.
o Obama and Putin did not attend the meeting
o Discussed need for better information sharing about food production practices,
promoting healthy lifestyles and nutrition, and cooperation on water
management, sustainable fisheries and climate change mitigation.
The 2014(Ninth) East Asia Summit will be held in Naypyidaw, Myanmar (Burma) in
November 2014.
ASEAN +1 (INDIA-ASEAN SUMMIT MEETING 10 YEARS)
The commemorative summit included the Plenary Session on 20 December and
Ceremonial Flagdown of the ASEANIndia Car Rally on 21 December, 2012.
CAR Rally: The rally passed through 8 ASEAN countries (excpet Brunei and the
Philippines) covering a distance of around 8000 km over 22 days and was flagged
down in Guwahati on December 17, 2012.
The INS Sudarshini Expedition was flagged off from Kochi on 15 September 2012,
was given a Naval sendoff at Chennai on September 29, 2012.
It took course of the 12,000 mile expedition of INS Sudarshini, she visited 13 ports in
9 countries in ASEAN Countries.
INDIA ASEAN FTA IN SERVICES
The FTA in services will open up greater job opportunities for Indias professionals in
information technology, healthcare, designing and research.
o Pact to open up greater job opportunities for Indias professionals in the field
of IT, healthcare, designing and research.
o India and Asean trading bloc already have a goods agreement in place that
came into force from August 2011
o After signing the new deal the FTA will be called the Comprehensive
Economic Partnership Agreement
o Both sides aims at increasing trade to $100 billion by 2015.
o India is the tenth largest services exporter in the world while Asean is a net
importer
In September 2014, the Government of India signed the longpending pact on
services trade and investment with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(Asean). India and Asean already have a free trade agreement (FTA) on goods; it took
effect in 2010. Once the FTA in services and investment gets ratified, the entire set of
pacts will become a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

Nine of the 10 Asean countries have signed the deal but not the Philippines, due to
domestic reasons. To become operational, all 10 must sign it and all the respective
legislatures must ratify it. So, for that matter, must Indias Parliament.
The agreement on goods has not been ratified by all Asean members. The government
had come under attack recently over the deal for the lack of increase in our exports to
the region, while imports from many Asean memberstates such as Singapore,
Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have been rising.
Under the goods FTA, Asean countries and India had decided to lift import tariffs on
a little more than 80 per cent of traded products by 2016. The FTA collectively covers
a market of nearly 1.8 billion people and proposes to gradually slash tariffs for over
4,000 product lines
CHING MAI INTIATIVE
It is a multilateral currency SWAP agreement among ASEAN+3 Countries.
ASEAN is going to have Regional Economic Community by 2015, which seems to
be least likely.
It will bring down barriers of Trade, Labor and Financial Market.
Larger economies of scale for businesses and industries, thereby increasing
productivity while reducing production costs, leading to more competitive pricing of
goods.
A higher level of employment in ASEAN would contribute towards building a larger
middle class, thereby reducing the gap between the rich and the poor, which will
promote social stability.
It will also create consumer market with purchasing power for goods and services.
INDIA-ASEAN RELOOK
India expanded its Look East policy to beyond economic ties and to cooperation in
areas like
Dr. Singh also announced a separate mission for ASEAN a 10member block of South
East Asian nations, with a full time ambassador.
A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on services and investments was supposed be signed
with ASEAN by end of 2013 to help meet IndiaASEAN trade to USD 100 billion by
2015. It is still pending.
Six pacts were signed between India and Indonesia including in areas like health, anti
corruption, narcotics, disaster management and academics.
The relationships with ASEAN and other Asian countries are now moving towards
more strategic partnerships as areas of cooperation have expanded from only
economic issues to security, defence, intelligence sharing etc..
ASEAN leaders now expect to strengthen the security dimension of cooperation with
India..
The issue of maritime security was also discussed by various leaders, while other
areas where cooperation is expected to increase include counter terrorism measures,
nontraditional security threats and disaster mitigation and management.
On South China Sea dispute, India maintains its position clear that the freedom of
navigation should be there as per international norms and an early resolution should

be worked by first making early progress towards adoption of Code of Conduct
norms.
India Singapore
India Singapore enjoys extensive cultural and commercial relations.
2005: Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) signed.
The trade between the two countries surged from US$8.7 billion in 20052006 to
US$21.81 billion in 20112012.
Singapore and India is the Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement (DTAA), which
allows entrepreneurs and companies from India to set up operations in Singapore with
a fair tax treatment of business income that avoids the potential doubletaxation
implications.
India and Singapore inked 3 major pacts including one on continuing the military
training that Indian armed forces extend to their Singaporean counterparts.
India is already imparting training to the Singaporean air force personnel at the
Kalaikunda air base in West Bengal.
MoUs on Cooperation in area of Vocational Education and Skill Development: A
MoU was also signed b/w the Indian labor and employment ministry and Singapore's
education ministry regarding cooperation in the area of vocational education and
skills development.
USD $100 Mn project in aviation sector through a venture of TATA
with Singapore Airlines(SIA) which plans to offer fullservice passengers sevices on
domestic and international routes.
India Thailand
India had offered collaboration in defence production. It would be a strategic hedge
against Beijing.
2012: Both countries signed Extradition treaty.
Intelligence sharing on money laundering and terrorism financing.
Trilateral highway would boost up the trade and contact.
India is a member of the Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) initiated by Thailand in
2002 and of the MekongGanga Cooperation (MGC), a group of six countries.
IndoThai exchange programme to enhance economic, scientific, educational,
technical and cultural ties.
The bilateral trade between Thailand and India is expected to double by 2015 from
USD 8.6 billion in 2012.
India Vietnam
In September, Dr Mukherjee visited Vietnam. During Mukherjees 4day trip to
Vietnam key agreements in defence procurement, oil exploration and air connectivity
were signed between the two countries.
ONGC Videsh Ltd. has been permitted to continue oil exploration in two new blocks
of South China Sea, which has been a bone of contention between Vietnam and China
for quite a few years now.

Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan also clarified that the two blocks offered to
ONGC were within Vietnams territorial limits and didnt fall within the disputed
territory of the South China Sea.
Mr President also reiterated that India never designs its foreign policy for a particular
country through the prism of a third country (remember this statement, will help you
come out many dilemmas in exam hall).
Its clear that India doesnt want to directly involve itself in the dispute between
Vietnam and China. This is to a large extent dictated by internal issues, like Kashmir,
besides the larger picture of not wanting a direct confrontation with China. China is
also Indias largest trading partner, which cant be wished away. However, the fact
that India is working to improve its ties with Vietnam is proof that the central
leadership has recognized the importance of developing strong ties in Asia to counter
the growing clout and often bullylike posturing of China. Chinese premier Jinping
had also visited Sri Lanka and Maldives before landing in India.
India also agreed to sell BRAHMOS to Vietnam.
In 2010, as the ASEANIndia free trade agreement came into effect, bilateral trade
exploded to US$3.917 billion by the end of 2012, with Vietnam exported US$1.7
billion to India in 2012, an increase of 56.5% from 2011.
The IR VIEWS
VIEW by HARVEER SINH http://iastoss.in/
UNCLOS
The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) is the most comprehensive attempt
at creating a unified regime for governance of the
rights of nations with respect to the world's oceans.
The treaty addresses a number of topics including
navigational rights, economic rights, pollution of the
seas, conservation of marine life, scientific exploration,
piracy, and more.
While UNCLOS was first signed in December of 1982,
the agreement did not come into force until November
of 1994, a period of nearly 12 years.
One of the most powerful features of UNCLOS is that
it settled the question of the extent of national
sovereignty over the oceans and seabed (Please have a
look at the graphics..explained here..)
Territorial Water:: a nation has exclusive sovereignty over the water, seabed, and airspace.
The treaty establishes that all nations have the right of innocent passage through the territorial
sea of another nation and that, outside certain conditions, the nation laying claim to the
territorial sea cannot hamper innocent passage of a foreign vessel.
Contiguous Zone:: The Contiguous Zone is a region of the seas measured from the baseline to
a distance of 24 nautical miles. Within this region, a nation may exercise the control
necessary to prevent the infringement of its customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and
regulations within its territory or territorial sea, and punish infringement of those laws and
regulations committed within its territory or territorial sea
The Exclusive Economic Zone:
Zone "EEZ" is a region that stretches a distance of no more than
200 nautical miles from a nation's baselines. Here a nation may a nation may explore or
exploit the natural resources (both living and inanimate) found both in the water and on the
seabed, may utilize
ilize the natural resources of the area for the production of energy (including
wind and wave/current), may establish artificial islands, conduct marine scientific research,
pass laws for the preservation and protection of the marine environment, and regul
regulate fishing
Pivot Asia
The Barack Obama doctrine on East Asia is known as Pivot Asia.
it considers Asia as a geopolitical imperative for America (and any superpower which had
foreign imperial interests)
It means a formal rebalancing
balancing of the United States
States foreign priority from Europe and the
Middle East toward East Asia (Korea, Japan and China).
It represents a political breakaway of Barack Obama from his predecessor, George W Bush,
who turned to be obsessed with the shaping of a new Middle Eastern theat
theater. And of course it
does not avoid the economic factor, that is that Asia have become the economic center of
gravity: China is about to surpass the United States as the biggest world economy in less than
five years.

Thus East Asia is the new priority for American Department of State, because of its
economic and geopolitical relevance in the world to come.
Thailand Coup

Military had taken over the government by declaring that it wants to reform the political
system.
Two groups of parties are there
1) Red Shirts, has support of rural populations and poors.
2) Yellow Shirts, Aristocrats and Civil servants and urban masses.
2006: the then Prime Minister Mr Thakshin Shinawatra of peoples Power party (PPP) was
charged with corruption and accused of disloyalty to Thai monarchy and subsequently
removed. He fled the country. He was elected in 2001. He started a lot of social welfare
schemes.
Military drafted new constitution and in 2007 elections were held. PPP takes power again.
Protests followed. Constitutional court disbanded PPP of electoral frauds. Opposition party
leader Abhisit Vejjajiva becomes prime minister (funny. Isnt it?)). Soon the PPP supporters
(Red Shirts) started protesting and clashes in Thailand.
2011: Elections held, winner was Yungluk Shinawatra, the youngest sister of thakshin
Shinawatra. It was a landslide victory.
Now, the constitutional court removed the PM for misuse of power (she removed the top
security officer). Caretaker government took charge but the Yellow shirts protested. Red
shirts couter protested. Clashes. Fertile ground for Army to restore political order..lol. Army
takes over. It was 19th attempt by army to control power since 1932 in Thailand.
We have already studies the South China Sea conflict with China. Please revise accordingly.
Please fill the table below and mail it to anyone
ASEAN
COUNTRY
CAPITAL
POPULATION
GDP
Resources
06: The Arc of Democracy: USA,

Australia, Japan, Korea and India
India Japan Relations
India japan relations are of geopolitical considerations, given the rising hegemony of
China. The coming together of the two largest democracies of Asia one with a
highly developed economy and exploring the frontiers of technology and the other
presenting a growing economic opportunity and having large unsatiated demand and a
huge young population provides obvious synergy.
The continued slowdown in the West, with rising labour cost in China, accentuates
this convergence. The growing unease of Japanese companies in China seeking an
orderly exit and alternative location could make India an obvious choice.
The opening up of Indias defence and railway sectors and the increased cooperation
in maritime security are opportunities not contemplated earlier.
India is one of the worlds largest arms importers, and Japanese exports and joint
production in India would be mutually beneficial.
Japans endorsement of Indias candidature for the four major multilateral export
controls regime is a leap forward in bilateral relations.
Both countries are interested in Reform of the global Institutions like United nations.
These regimes are the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), the Missile Technology
Control Regime (MTCR), the Australia Group, and the Wassenaar
Arrangement.
Both countries give highest priority to nuclear safety and peaceful use of nuclear
energy.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in Japan is seriously
negotiating for better export controls to undertake high technology commerce with
India, which would help Indian economy.
Japan would help in developing Ajanta Ellora, Chennai Bangalore Industrial Corridor
(CBIC).
Both countries are Strategic global partners, and have signed CEPA.
Since 2006, India and Japan have held annual Prime Ministerial level talksa
privilege afforded by each to no other state (in Japans case, even the United States).
As netimporters of fossil fuels, India and Japan have a vital interest in the protection
of sealanes along the HormuzMalaccaSea of Japan axis.
Japan pledged USD 35 Billion in Investment in India during recent visit of Prime
Minister of India.
Japan will also help in Cleaning Ganga and Smart Cities along with the Speed trains
(Bullet).
India attracted Japanese investment on critical infrastructure projects such as the
DelhiMumbai Industrial Corridor.
Trilateral cooperation between the U.S., India, and Japan will be the bolstering of
regional multilateralism through institutions such as the ASEAN Regional Forumn,
the East Asia Summit, and the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating
Piracy.
India Japan bilateral relationship is one to watch in the coming years, and will

certainly be a key determinant of international structural stability in the 21st century.
India South Korea
As one of the earliest foreign investors after Indias economic liberalization in 1991,
South Korea has been an aggressive yet enthusiastic investor that has continued to
maintain its confidence in Indias potential. Bilateral trade is now 40 percent higher
than it was in 2009, and South Korean companies including Samsung, LG and
Hyundai are among the most respected companies in India, with strong commercial
performance.
The two sides signed permitting South Korea to export its nuclear technology and
expertise to India. With this agreement, South Korea became the ninth country to
enter into a nuclear partnership with New Delhi.
India has awarded USD $1.2 billion contract to Kangnam Corp. for eight mine
countermeasure vessels in Indias first bigticket defense program with South Korea.
The issues for mutual interests are as follows:
o Regional security issues Nonconventional security concerns such as
maritime security, piracy, energy security, disaster management, climate
change, environment, cyber security, securing sea lanes of communication
o Global governance issues
o Global power shift and the issue of a regional institutional architecture
o Bilateral ties with the United States of India, Japan and South Korea
o Nuclear Issue (cooperation between the three countries) and nuclear safety
o AfPak China-North Korea-Pakistan nexus visvis nuclear security
threats
o Competing claims over resources in South China Sea, IndiaVietnam
Relations and Chinas response
3rd IndiaSouth Korea Foreign Policy and Security Dialogue: They discussed the
potential for space and nuclear cooperation, upgrading of the bilateral Comprehensive
Economic Partnership and Agreement and collaboration in defense production.
India USA
In 2005, USA pressed for international acceptance of India's civil nuclear programme,
ending a ban on foreign assistance imposed because of India's refusal to sign the
Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty, was meant to usher in a new era of cooperation
and trust between India and USA.
The nearcollapse in its relations with Pakistan gives India an even greater
significance in America's hopes for stability in Afghanistan when most NATO troops
leave in 2014.
The two sides agreed to work on a bilateral investment treaty to unlock the huge
potential for cooperation.
The friendship has, it is widely noted, reached a plateau. It seems it would reach new
heights under the current regime.
USA supports Indias entry to various nonproliferation regimes Nuclear Suppliers
Group (NSG), the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), the Wassenaar
Arrangement and the Australia Group (explained at the end of the document)

The talk of G2 (USAChina) stokes India with feelings of inferiority. It may share
values with America; China shares power.
Third, India is worried about American policies threatening two of its most successful
industries:
o Its software engineers need visas if they are to work in America, but the
number of visas is limited, harming Indias IT firms.
o The genericmedicine industry is under attack from American firms guarding
their intellectual property.
Extended supplier Responsibility in nuclear liability law where the supplier would be
liable to pay damage caused if it happens because of faulty machinery.
The allegations of funding protests against Russia build Nuclear Power Plant.
The defence contract for medium multirole combat aircraft (MMRCA) was awarded
to Frances Dassault Aviation for their Rafael fightjet.
Heavy taxation on American firms that are outsourcing work to India.
NATO led coalition forces are leaving Afghanistan by 2014, and India fears that
Afghanistan will again become a Talibanized client of Pakistan.
US spy agencies knew about 26/11 attack in advance through David Hedley but did
not warn India.
India has not stopped importing crudeoil from USA's archenemy Iran.
Defense cooperation Agreement (2008): extended for another 10 years. Now itll
expire in 2025. It must be noted that India increased Defense FDI from 26% to 49%.
India, Japan And USA

India, Japan and US have held their fourth Trilateral dialogue in Washington.
The discussions focused on the prospect of greater IndoPacific commercial
connectivity and regional and maritime security, and cooperation in multilateral fora
to help advance shared values and interests.
The talks hold strategic significance as it is seen by many, including China, as
the alliance towards Containment of China Policy.
India New Zealand

Both countries are negotiating FTA.
Oct 2012: Education Council meet for the first time: Major agreements are; > Co
operation in the field of sports. >IGNOU and Open polytechnic of Newzealand will
cooperate. > JNU and Victoria university Wellington. > Massy University and DU.
There is a scope for Cooperation in Agriculture, Education and defence and Dairy
Sector.
India Australia
India and Australia has in common both in values and interests. Apart from being two
Englishspeaking, multicultural, federal democracies that believe in and respect the
rule of law, both have a strategic interest in ensuring a balance in the IndoPacific and
in ensuring that the region is not dominated by any one hegemonic power.
In addition, Indians are today the largest source of skilled migrants in Australia.
Indians ranked Australia in the top four nations towards which they feel most warmly.
Only the United States, Japan and Singapore ranked more highly. (Lowy Institute
report)
India's economic growth and its burgeoning demand for energy, resources and
education have propelled India to become one of Australia's largest export markets.
According to a 2012 McKinsey report, India's mining sector has the potential to
contribute $40bn annually to government revenue and create, directly or indirectly, an
additional 2.3 million jobs. In Australia, the end of the mining boom presents
challenges thus Australian mining services companies can replace local demand by
working in India, and India using Australian skills to unlock its mineral resources.
Both India and Australia have deep economic relations with China, but are equally
concerned about Beijing's aggressive behaviour, in the recent past, and would ideally
want a region that is not dominated by any one hegemonic power.
The two countries signed a pathbreaking agreement that will allow for the transfer of
Australian uranium to India, making India the first nonNuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty signatory country to get Australian uranium.
Both countries can collaboration in sectors as diverse as mining, agriculture and clean
energy and the education sector.
Fiscal Cliff- USA

Fiscal cliff term refers to the approval by US president for more than $500 billion in
tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect after 1st January 2013. Two
measures: 1> Tax increase or removing tax cuts and 2> Spending Cuts.
Thus it is, controlling Federal deficit from both sides; revenue and expenditure.
It would reduce disposable income of people as well as reduce research and
development.
The impact on developing economies including India would be in terms of reduced
export and increased FDI.
Government Shutdown In USA

The US government began shutting its nonessential services, Workers were on
unpaid leave.
Without a budget deal approved by both parts of Congress, there's no legal agreement
to pay nonessential staff. US budget year ends in September.
Under the US constitution, the president cannot unilaterally bring in legislation related
to budget. Republicans continue to include cuts and delays to Barack Obama's
Affordable Care Act in the budget legislation they sent up to the Senate.
The House of Representatives is controlled by the Republican Party, whose Tea
Party movement remains deeply opposed to Obamacare.
Essential services, such as social security, military and Medicare payments,
continue.
In total, the US government has partially shut down on 17 occasions before today.
The shutdown situation is a product of the US democratic system. The president is
both head of state and head of the federal government, without a guaranteed majority
in either of the legislative bodies where new laws are debated and voted upon.
The Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act (PPACA)/ Obamacare

In USA one visit to the emergency room costs $1,265 on average In the situation of
cancer, it would cost $7,000, or even as high as $30,000.
Health care costs are the top cause of bankruptcy USA.
The ACA aims to increase the quality and affordability of health insurance, lower the
uninsured rate by expanding public and private insurance coverage, and reduce the
costs of healthcare for individuals and the government.
It has a number of mechanisms like:
o Parents can add their adult children (up to age 26) to their plans.
o If anyone gets sick, the insurance company can't drop them from the plan or
limit how much insurance your family uses.
o If any children are chronically ill, a new insurance company can't deny
coverage.
o Most families will find that wellness or pregnancy exams are now free. In
other words, they no longer have to make copayments.
o Insurance companies can't raise premium payments without getting the OK
from the state government.
o must spend at least 80% of premiums on providing actual medical services. If
they spent it on advertising or executive salaries, they have to pay the excess
back to policyholders.
Small companies will have to pay Medicaid, People will visit hospital once they have
the disease without waiting for money arrangement thus it would reduce chances of
alleviating a disease and reduce burden on society and government both.
Prism, GCHQ And Edward Snowden Snowden
The Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) is a British intelligence
agency responsible for providing signals intelligence (SIGINT) and information
assurance to the British government and armed forces.
National Security Agencys PRISM program established to acquire data from tech
giants including Apple, Google is a small part of a massive intelligence program .
NSA uses court orders authorized by Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence
Surveillance Act (FISA) to collect specific data from tech companies
The NSA copies Internet traffic as it enters and leaves the United States.
The revelation that the NSA may have been listening to phone calls made by the
leaders of America's allies, most notably those of the German chancellor, Angela
Merkel.
It is a violation of 4th Amendment of US Constitution: which protects against
unreasonable searches.
Edward Snowden, an American computer specialist and former CIA employee and
NSA contractor who disclosed classified details of several top secret United States,
Israeli, and British government mass surveillance programs to the press.
Thoughts On Spying
America seems to have been caught at two types of spying in Europe.
o It has tapped the phones of top 35 world leaders.
o It is having amounts of information about European citizens communications.
It has been undertaken by European spies on nonEuropeans and then passed to the
NSA. This was to protect the West from Islamist terror, which the Americans are
often bestplaced to investigate.

Spying on allies is not inherently wrong. Germany and France have broad overlapping
national interests with Americabut they occasionally clash. Before the war in Iraq
Jacques Chirac, then Frances president, and Gerhard Schrder, Mrs Merkels
predecessor, sought to frustrate Americas attempts to win over the UN Security
Council. Europeans spy on Americans, too, as Madeleine Albright found when she
was secretary of state.
The row may get in the way of international agreements, such as a transatlantic free
trade deal.
It could lead to the fragmentation of the internet, enabling more government control
by countries such as China and Russia.
America should make it clear that it takes abuse of intelligencegathering seriously.
For its own sake, the NSA needs a new start, under new leaders and with proper
oversight. But for the sake of the Americans whom the NSA must protect, neither
Congress nor the White House should succumb to a dangerous mood of retribution.
Foreign politicians may know that their own security (notably in counterterrorism)
often benefits from American help. But they do not like the terms on which it comes.
They want tighter controls on the NSAs work and more insight into the results.
2011 McKinsey study found that the Internet contributed to 21 percent of the GDP
growth in mature economies over the prior fiveyear period.
Increasingly, the NSA story has been linked with Big Data and to the extent this
development makes netizens more reluctant to engage in online activity, that is a
concern that needs to be addressed.
Cyber security is another important threat, as consumers are increasingly being
impacted by having their social media and email accounts hacked or having their
records accessed through data breaches. At the same time cyber attacks are reaching
critical infrastructure in both the public and private sectors, raising fears of a Cyber
9/11.
Internet in promoting freedom across the world, partly by serving as an essential tool
for transparency in government. Which is why the solution to the current controversy
over the Snowden leaks is not to retreat back to the prior "cone of silence," but rather
to have an open debate over what level of surveillance is permissible and the process
for doing so because that is what free societies do. Let us find a consensus that sets an
example for the rest of the world.
USA: Need For Gun Control
People kill people, but guns make it easy
On December 14, 2012, 20yearold Adam Lanza fatally shot twenty children and six
adult staff members in a mass murder at Sandy Hook Elementary School in the village
of Sandy Hook in Newtown, Connecticut. Before driving to the school, Lanza shot
and killed his mother Nancy at their Newtown home.
The Wisconsin Sikh temple shooting was a mass shooting that took place on August
5, 2012. Wade Michael Page fatally shot six people and wounded four others at a Sikh
temple in Oak Creek, Wisconsin.
There is a need for:

o The renewal of a ban on assault weapons that expired in 2004.
o Universal background checks on gun buyers, closing a wide loophole that
allows private sales without verifying the criminal or mentalhealth histories
of buyers
When Australia outlawed many guns after a mass shooting in 1996, Australian
robbery and breakin rates have fallen since 1996 (Australian gunmurder rates fell
sharply too, with no offsetting rise in other homicides).
The selfinterest of politicians represents the gun lobbys true source of power.
Tea Party Movement
There is no single Tea Party. The term is an umbrella descriptor that includes a
wide array of people from those on the fringe of the political mainstream to
independents, religious conservatives, and other groups.
There is no central leadership in this party movement. It is grassroot in nature.
The Tea Party is essentially a populist movement urging political change for the
benefit of the people. The focus is on fiscal conservatism.
Tea Party movement demands : adherence to the Constitution, individual freedom and
smaller government as well as lower taxes.
Major Tea Party Movements
o 2009 : against the TARP bailout bill (Troubled Assets Relief Program)
o 2010 : against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act(Obamacare)
The Civil Liability For Nuclear Damage Act
Passed by Parliament in August 2010 limits the liability of the operator in case of a
nuclear incident.
It secures the operator the right to recourse ( Section17A) under certain
circumstances.
The Act also provides a mechanism to compensate victims of nuclear damage.
The Supreme Court of India has recently admitted a Public Interest Litigation which
challenges the constitutional validity of the cap on the operators liability under the
Act which is 1500 crore.
The right to recourse can be exercised either during the initial license period under
the Atomic Energy (Radiation Protection) Rules, 2004, or the product liability period,
whichever is longer. The initial license period is not defined.
India is not deviating from the international practice. India is not acting contrary to
the international mainstream. It is only protecting the interests of the operator i.e
Government of India, or a government company. Korea has a similar provision.
North Korea
2013, the UN identified North Korean government policies as the primary cause of
the shortages and estimated that 16 million people required food aid.
Unha3
Nadong: Gauri Missile (Pakistan) is a version of it.

10 years of six party talks: it was for getting North Korea to give up its nuclear
weapons programmes.
2011, the Supreme Leader of North Korea, Kim Jongil died from a heart attack. Kim
JongUn declared
US flied two nuclearcapable B2 stealth bombers over the Korean peninsula.
February 2013: North Korea conducted underground nuclear test.
March 2013: North Korea announced its intentions to launch a preemptive nuclear
strike against the United States.
DPRK LongRange Missile Launches
Year
Launcher
Stated Purpose
Notes
2009
Unha2
(TD2)
Communications satellite launch

(Kwangmyongsong2)
Third stage failure; North Korea

claims satellite successfully placed
into orbit.
2012
Unha3
(TD2)
ability to fire a rocket more than

Earth observation satellite launch
10,000km (6,200 miles).
(Kwangmyongsong3)
It is precusrsor to developing ICBM.
March 2013, the North Korean government announced that it was withdrawing from
all nonaggression pacts with South Korea .
It declared to restart the plutonium reactor in Yongbyon.
It prevented South Korean workers crossing the border to their jobs at the Kaesong
industrial complex, the only surviving joint economic initiative between the two
countries
May, 2013:three shortrange guided missiles landed into the waters off the Korean
peninsula on May 18, followed by a fourth on May 19.
North Korea still maintains that the latest rocket (Unha 3) is purely part of a civilian
space program. It is developing a credible nuclear deterrent, from Pyongyang's
perspective, would strengthen the prestige of its leader, warn off potential
aggressors and enhance its negotiating position in any future talks.
Six Party Talks

The sixparty talks involve China, Russia, the United States, the DPRK, the ROK and
Japan.
North Korea withdrawing from the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.
2008: North Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear facilities in exchange for fuel aid
and steps towards the normalization of relations with the United States and Japan
Kaesng Industrial Region (KIR)

Kaesng Industrial Region (KIR) is a special administrative industrial region of North
Korea (DPRK).
It was formed in 2002 from part of Kaesng Directly Governed City.
It is operated as a collaborative economic development with South Korea (ROK). The
park is located ten kilometres (six miles) north of the Korean Demilitarized Zone, an
hour's drive from Seoul, with direct road and rail access to South Korea.
The park allows South Korean companies to employ cheap labour that is educated,
skilled, and fluent in Korean, whilst providing North Korea with an important source
of foreign currency.

Other Issues
Different Export Control Regimes
Nuclear Suppliers
Missile Technology
Group (NSG)
Control Regime
(MTCR)
# It is concerned with
# It is an informal and
reducing nuclear
voluntary partnership
proliferation.
between 34 countries.
# It controls the export # It prevents
and retransfer of
the proliferation of
materials that may be
missile and unmanned
applicable to nuclear
aerial vehicle technology
weapon development
capable of carrying a
#It improves safeguards 500 kg payload at least
and protection on
300 km.
existing materials.
Australia Group
Wassenaar
Arrangement.
#It identifies those

exports which need
to be controlled so as
not to contribute to
the spread
of chemical and
biological weapons.
# It works on 2
principles
1> No Undercut
2>Catch All
# Export Controls
for Conventional
Arms and Dual
Use Goods and
Technologies.
>#41 participating
states
#Every six months
member countries
exchange
information on
deliveries of
conventional arms
to nonWassenaar
members
Indian Ocean Rim Association

Earlier known as Indian Ocean Rim Association of Regional Cooperation.
13 members Australia, Bangladesh, Comoros, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mozambique, Oman, Seychelles, Singapore, South
Africa, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Association works on 6 priorities set in Gurgaon Communique: Maritime Safety and
Security; Trade and Investment Facilitation; Fisheries Management; Disaster Risk
Management; Academic and Science and Technology Cooperation; and Tourism and
Cultural Exchanges.
The Indian Ocean covers about 20 per cent of water on the worlds surface. The
Indian Ocean Rim countries have a population of approximately 2.6 billion (39% of
All)
It accounts for 50 per cent of the worlds container traffic and Indian Ocean ports
handle about 30 per cent of global trade.
~66 per cent of the worlds seaborne trade in oil transits through it. ~55 per cent of
known oil reserves around 40 per cent of gas reserves, are in the Indian Ocean region.
As global economic power shifts to the east, maintaining prosperity and stability
across the diverse Indian Ocean region has become imperative. Thus IORA is
important.
07: ARAB WORLD The Birthplace of

Civilizations and the Cradle of Death
Background
1774 Kucuk Kaynarca, 1832 Greece, 1916 SykesPicot agreement, Transjordon, 1917
Belfour Declaration, Iranian Revolution
The Ottoman Empire (13001922) ruled a vast territory that included much of the
Balkans, Anatolia, the central Middle East to the borders of Iran, and most of North
Africa
In 18th century, Ottoman declined. In 1774, the Ottomans were forced to give up
significant Muslim territory to an opponent, Russia, in the Treaty of Kucuk
Kaynarca.
Structural changes (Centralization, Industrialization) in the wider world ultimately
outpaced Ottomans.
By the 19th century, nationalism within individual states was beginning to challenge
the authority of the multicultural Ottoman Empire. Greece won independence from
the Ottomans in 1832, and other Balkan nations began to follow suit.
The great game of exploiting resources started. Prior to World War I, France occupied
Algeria in 1830 and Tunisia in 1881; the British took control of Aden (in Yemen) in
1836 and Egypt in 1882; and Italy occupied Libya in 1911.
Modern armies were thirsty for oil. The British navy was the first to switch from coal
to oil in 1912, and other new technologies, like automobiles and airplanes, quickly
and drastically increased the demand for fuel. We should note (UPSC Aspirants esp.)
that the Middle East is similarly disproportionately rich in natural gas (32 percent of
the world's known natural gas reserves are in the region).
1908: The government of Iran sold the exclusive right to explore and drill for oil in
Iran a "concession" to the AngloIranian Oil Company(AIOC). The British
government bought a controlling stake in AIOC, and by the start of World War I,
Iranian oil was Britain's most important strategic resource.
In World War I, the Ottoman Empire joined forces with the Germans and Austro
Hungarians. Some Arab states joined the British under the leadership of the Sharif of
Mecca (Because English promised them Independence, only promised).
The SykesPicot Agreement of 1916 divided the Ottoman lands between the British
and the French. France controlled Syria and Lebanon. Britain held mandates over
Palestine, Iraq, and the newly created Transjordan. To mollify the Arabs, the British
made the sons of the Sharif of Mecca rulers of two of these new states: Faisal was
made king of Iraq, and Abdullah was made king of Transjordan, later Jordan
Balfour Declaration made by the British in 1917, promising their support for "the
establishment in Palestine of a National Home for the Jewish people." This agreement
conflicted with the promise of Arab independence and set the stage for new conflict.
The areas of Kurdish settlement were divided among Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
In Turkey and Iran modernization took place, Turkish nationalists under Mustafa
Kemal Atatrk created a new state in Anatolia and Thrace. Atatrk embarked on an
aggressive campaign of Westernization. In Iran after World War I, a military
commander, Reza Shah Pahlevi, took power. He, too, was an aggressive Westernizer.
The result was the new faultlines in society Westernized and traditional.

In the interwar years (19191939), Arab nationalist opposition to the British continued
to grow. Gamal Abd al-Nasser tried to unite Egypt and Syria into a single United
Arab Republic (But PalestineIsrael was/is the geographic divide).
The Iranian government of Mohammed Mossadeq nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil
Company in 1953. What next? USA intervened (secretly) to restore democracy In a
coup engineered by the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), this nationalist
government was overthrown, and Shah government friendly to Western interests was
elected installed. (The Birth of USAIRAN Rivalry), fast forward1979: Revolution in
Iran, Shah regime exiled.
Now USA needed more oil. Standard Oil of California first discovered oil in Saudi
Arabia in 1936. The huge deposits there and in the neighboring Persian Gulf countries
the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain established these countries as
some of the richest in the world.
U.S. foreign policy initiatives work to support the stability of proU.S. governments,
and prevent antiU.S. powers to enter into the region. (Another Conflict)
Because the Middle East has the world's largest deposits of oil (55 percent of the
world's reserves) in an easily extracted form, Middle Eastern oil continues to be
necessary to the world
Oil money has created both opportunities and problems for the region
Middle Eastern nations have learned to manipulate their production of oil as an
international strategy. After the unsuccessful Yom Kippur War with Israel in 1973, an
OPEC oil embargo by Arab nations demonstrated a new way to influence European
and American policy. Oil prices quadrupled from $3 a barrel in 1972 to $12 a barrel
in 1974. In the U.S., the era of
cheap gas came to an end,
stimulating research on increasing
energy efficiency, conservation,
and alternative fuels as well as
exploration for alternative sources
of oil.
Uneven distribution of petroleum
deposits has created a disparity of
wealth and power in the Middle
East. Gulf countries with
relatively small populations have
the most oil.
Oil will continue to be an
important regional and global
issue.
New Dimenson: Some estimates
show that by 2050, landlocked
Central Asia will provide more than 80 percent of the oil distributed to the U.S.
How will impact the future of this region? Keep on reading IR section of
newspaper/app for next 36 years. Thus, the control of pipelines through Afghanistan
or Turkey to distribution centres will be of increasing importance to the United States.
Another dimension: The Jordan River provides 75 percent of Jordan's water and 60
percent of Israel's. In the early 1960s, Arab nations worked to divert the headwaters of
the Jordan away from Israel and towards Jordan. One of Israel's objectives in the
ArabIsraeli Six Day War of 1967, among others, was to control the Golan
Heights and prevent this plan from being carried out.

The Sunni-Shia divide
The story of Islam's division between Sunni and Shia started with the Prophet
Mohammed's death in 632. There was a power struggle over who would succeed him
in ruling the Islamic Caliphate, with most Muslims wanting to elect the next leader
but some arguing that power should go by divine birthright to Mohammed's sonin
law, Ali.
That proAli faction was known as the "Partisans of Ali," or "Shi'atu Ali" in Arabic,
hence "Shia." Ali's eventual ascension to the throne sparked a civil war, which he and
his partisans lost.
The Shia held on to the idea that Ali was the rightful successor, and grew into an
entirely separate branch of Islam. Today about 10 to 15 percent of Muslims
worldwide are Shia they are the majority group in Iran and Iraq only while most
Muslims are Sunni.
"Sunni" roughly means "tradition." Today, that religious division is again a political
one as well: it's a struggle for regional influence between Shia political powers, led by
Iran, versus Sunni political powers, led by Saudi Arabia. This struggle looks an awful
lot like a regional cold war, with proxy battles in Syria and elsewhere.
Starting from Iraq War
Everyone knew that Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction (update here)
The Iraq war was in fact for oil, or geopolitical power struggle.
U.S. officials are guilty of war crimes for using 9/11 as a false justification for the Iraq
war. Indeed, the entire torture program was implemented in an attempt to justify the
Iraq war, the American military used depleted uranium in Iraq which can causes
cancer and birth defects for decades.
Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz estimated in 2008 that the Iraq war
costed America up to $5 trillion dollars. But a new study by Brown Universitys
Watson Institute for International Studies says the Iraq war costs could exceed $6

trillion, when interest payments are taken into account. And top economists say that
war is bad for the economy.
National security experts agree that waging war against Iraq and other Middle Eastern
countries has weakened national security and increases terrorism.
Iraqis are worse off now than before the Iraq war. Minorties are more widely
persecuted than under Saddam.
The terrorist groups including AlQueda in Iraq were defeated by USA with the help
of Iraqi Sunni secularist in 2007. That paved way for USAs departure.
After the departure, the controversial government did not pay heed to the complaints
of the minorities including Sunnis and used force against the protestors alienating itself
from the minoritys support. The discontent and deceptive attitude of the Shia
government created the fertile ground for the rise of Extremists including ISIS.. The
ISIS story is written somewhere else in the document.
Let us briefly understand the ARAB Spring, then we will move to Syria Civil War and
ISIS.
ARAB SPRING
Arab Spring uprisings challenged and in many cases toppled the brittle old
dictatorships of the Middle East. It was a fight by the masses to bring in reform in the
government.
It impacted and in some cases toppled the governments in some countries in arab
world includingTunisia, Libya, Egypt.
What's depressing is how little the movements have advanced beyond those first
instances of revolution and govt toppling.

Syria's civil war is still going on, thousands are being killed and millions are being
displaced.
Egypt's fling with democracy appeared to end with a military coup in mid2013.
When Gen. Fateh Al Sisi removed Muslim Brotherhood leader Md. Morsi.
Yemen is still mired in slowboil violence and political instability.
The war in Libya toppled Moammar Qaddafi, with US and European support, but left
the country without basic security or a functioning government. The country is at civil
war now.
Only Tunisia seems to have come out even tenuously in the direction of democracy. It
has formulated a relatively secular constitution.
LIBYA
More than three years after the fall of strongman Muammar Qaddafi, Libya is in the
midst of a bitter civil war rooted in a balance of weakness between the countrys
political factions and armed groups. With a domestic landscape torn apart by
competing claims to power and with interference from regional actors serving to
entrench divides, restoring stability in Libya and building a unified security structure
will be difficult if not impossible without broadbased political reconciliation.
After Qaddafi, Libyas security sector evolved into a hybrid arrangement marked by
loose and imbalanced cooperation between locally organized, statesponsored armed
groups and national military and police.
The system broke down as political and security institutions became increasingly
polarized along regional, communal, and ideological fault lines.
The country is now split between two warring camps: Operation Dignity, a coalition
of eastern tribes, federalists, and disaffected military units; and Operation
Dawn, an alliance of Islamist forces aligned with armed groups from Misrata.
Each camp lays claim to governance and legitimacy, with its own parliament, army,
and prime minister.
Regional backing of the two campswith Egypt and the United Arab Emirates
supporting Dignity and Qatar, Turkey, and Sudan backing Dawnhas deepened these
divisions.
Outside efforts to train and equip Libyas security institutions have failed because of
this polarization. There is no effective command structure; trainees have reverted to
regional loyalties or are on indefinite leave because there is no military structure for
them to join.
Recommendations:
Implement a ceasefire between Operations Dignity and Dawn and secure the
withdrawal of forces taking part in those campaigns. The military units of these
coalitions should move out of the major cities, and those that attacked civilians or
civilian facilities should be disbanded.
Push for a transitional government that is inclusive of all factions. A facesaving
powersharing formula should encompass all politicians and include supporters of
both Dignity and Dawnif they renounce support for terrorist groups and attacks on
civilian facilities.
Implement a regional pact against military interference in Libyas affairs. Outside
powers should stop equipping and funding armed groups and push their allies in
Libya toward reconciliation. A September 2014 noninterference pactincluding
Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, and Turkeyis a promising start.
Support the development of a new Libyan security architecture, national army, and
police force by harnessing local security initiatives. After a broad political pact is

forged, the United States and its allies should focus on supporting a civilian
controlled defense architecture, municipalitybased forces, and local disarmament and
demobilization efforts.
EGYPT
The Arab Spring, a phrase as misleading as Weapons of Mass Destruction, and
just as uncritically adopted by Western policymakers, is grinding to a grisly halt just
about everywhere.
A popular uprising in 2012 managed to unseat the air force general Hosni Mubarak
and paved the way for a general election, won convincingly (as most people expected)
by the Freedom and Justice Party allied to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Mohammed Morsi was duly elected president and then set about doing what the
Muslim Brotherhood had promised and what people of his worldview tend to do
everywhere he embarked enthusiastically on a programme of Islamification.
In Egypt it would seem that there are large numbers of people who vote happily for
the Muslim Brotherhood. Its the way they are. They want to live in a traditional
Islamic society.
Unemploymen rate was 25%, foreign exchange reserve plummeted by more than
65% is a year, and inflation has rocketed in recent times.
Military owned business makes up a large portion of the economy of Egypt.
Heavyduty Islamists may be an unsavoury crew but Egypts current military regime
is hardly any better. Thousands of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood have been
arrested and are no doubt being treated roughly we got a glimpse of how the
Egyptian Secret Police went about its business during the demonstrations against
Mubarak in 2012.
In March an Egyptian judge sentenced 529 men to death for the murder of a police
officer. On 28 April the same judge condemned another 683 men in a separate case to
be hanged.
Morsi was removed by the army. Egypt voted for Morsi and his Islamic rule: but the
West has happily watched the military retake control.
July 2013: Gen Al SISI suspended constitution, imprisoned top leaders including MD
Morsi and declared Chief Justice Adley Mansour as a caretaker interim President to
transition.
Adley Mansour appointed HazemElBeblawi as deputy president with foreign affairs
responsibility.
In the Decree, monsour Mentioned that Constitution would be changed through
referendum and the election would be held.
Morsi is currently on trial for a range of offences, including espionage
extraordinary.
As expected, ElSisi easily won the election; he crushed Sabahi, winning 97 percent
of those who bothered to turn out officially put at 47 percent of eligible voters,
although his opponents suggested even this figure was inflated. He was formally
sworn in as Egypts seventh president on June 8, 2014.
The challenges before elSisi would be to imposing politically risky economic
reforms, dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization or seek
reconciliation and fulfilling the aspirations of changed Egyptian society.
In his main inaugural night speech, for example, elSisi talked repeatedly of Egypt
entering a new era in the history of the Egyptian state, the launching of mega
national projects and the building of a giant economy based on laborintensive
heavy industries. His call on Egyptian businessmen to cough up $17 billion for a fund
The IR VIEWS
VIEW by HARVEER SINH http://iastoss.in/
to build Egypt, meanwhile, has left some wondering where the private sector fits
into his thinking, though elSisi
el Sisi promised land and licenses to both foreign and
domestic private investors to set up new industries.
Issues with the last Constitution under Morsi:
o It was not secular.
o Voted by only 32.9% of the voters. Only 63.8% of them recognized it.
o It allows Clerics to interfere into lawmaking process.
Al Nahda project
Investment would be of around $200 billion.
It covers the development of the Suez Canal axis.
Currently, 20 per cent of the world trade is flowing
flowing through the Suez. The idea is to
increase it substantially.
Egypt is working on developing Suez Canal city, Port Said and Ismailia as the
strategic hub for world trade.
For industry, they envisage many projects in Ismailia. Towards the east of Sina
Sinai they
have the vision to build a new Silicon Valley as in California.
SYRIA
The Syria's civil war, after three years of fighting has divided between government
forces, the antigovernment
government rebels who began as prodemocracy
pro democracy protestors, and the
Islamist extremist fighters who have been moving in over the last two years.
The areas under
der government control tend to overlap with where the minorities live.
The minorities tend to be linked to the regime, whereas the rebels are mostly from the
Sunni Muslim majority. But the antigovernment
anti government Syrian rebels have been taking lots
of territory. Syria's ethnic Kurdish minority also has militias that have taken over
territory where the Kurds live.
There's been a fourth rising faction: Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (sometimes
called ISIS), an extremist group based in Iraq that used to swear allegiance to al
al
Qaeda but now broken off. They're fighting both the rebels and the government.
Syria's refugee crisis

Syria's civil war hasn't just been a national catastrophe for Syria, but for neighboring
countries as well. The war has displaced millions of Syrians into the rest of the

Middle East and into parts of Europe, where they live in vast refugee camps that are
major drains on alreadyscarce national resources.
This map shows the refugees; it does not show the additional 6.5 million Syrians
displaced within Syria.
Their impact is especially felt in Jordan and Lebanon, which already have large
Palestinian refugee populations; as many as one in five people in those countries is a
refugee. While the US and other countries have committed some aid for refugees, the
United Nations says it's not nearly enough to provide them with basic essentials.
Chemical Attack
On 21 August,2013 a chemical attack took place in the Ghouta region, Damascus
countryside, leading to thousands of casualties and several hundred dead in the
opposition held stronghold.
September 14,2013: US and Russia announced in Geneva that they reached a deal on
how Assad should give up his chemical weapons
Syria agreed to destroy 1,290 tons of declared chemical weapons by mid2014.

It had already destroyed its manufacturing capabilities and handed over the weapons
to OPCW.
Chemical Weapon Convention (CWC)
"The term chemical weapon is applied to any toxic chemical or its precursor that can
cause death, injury, temporary incapacitation or sensory irritation through its chemical
action."
Convention (CWC) is an arms control treaty which outlaws the production,
stockpiling, and use of chemical weapons and their precursors.
The treaty entered into force in 1997.
The parties' main obligation under the convention is to prohibit the use and production
Chemical Weapons
Choking Agent
Breathing
Chlorine Gas
Blister Agent
Skin Irritation
Mustard Gas
Blood Agent
Nerve Agent
Lethal, Fast Acting
Nervous System
Cyanide or Arsenic
Sarin
Based
of chemical weapons, as well as the destruction of all chemical weapons. The
destruction activities are verified by the OPCW.
As of January 2013, around 78% of the declared stockpile of chemical weapons has
been destroyed.
The primary idea is that they are indiscriminate and an inherent threat to civilian
populations.
Syria, North Korea, Egypt and Angola did not sign the convention.
Syria did sign 1925 Geneva Convention banning use of chemical weapons in
situation of war.
Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL or ISIS)

ISIS also called ISIL that is Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. Levant region includes
Syria, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and part of southern Turkey.
From the mid2000s through today, ISIS and its predecessor group, alQaeda in Iraq,
have had one clear goal: to establish a caliphate governed by an extremist
interpretation of Islamic law.
ISIS developed strategies for accomplishing that goal for instance, exploiting
popular discontent among nonextremist Sunni Iraqis with their Shiadominated
government. Its tactics have evolved over the course of time in response to military
defeats (as in 2008 in Iraq) and new opportunities (the Syrian civil war).
During the 20032011 Iraq War, it joined other Sunni insurgent groups to form the
Mujahideen Shura Council, which consolidated further into the Islamic State of Iraq
(ISI) shortly afterwards.
Meanwhile Syrian Civil War started...separate story..Keep on following notes.
To support the Syria rebellions, a front Al Nusra was formed under Al-jawlani.
When Abu BakrAl Baghdadi declared Al Nusra to be a part of ISIS, AlJawlani
opposed, even AlQaeda was against it. ISIS started fighting with AlNusra
weakening the AntiAssad movement. This led to the breakdown of ISIS with Al
QUEDA.
ISIS isn't just an Iraqi problem. Its base in Syria today is just as, if not more,
important than the land it controls in Iraq. They've gotten funding from Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, and Kuwait, and winkwinknudgenudge help from Syria's Bashar alAssad.
Their violence is, in broad terms, not random it is targeted to weaken their enemies
and, in part by terrorizing the people it wishes to rule over.
Understanding that ISIS is at least on some level rational is necessary to make any
sense of the group's behavior. If all ISIS wanted to was kill infidels, why would they
ally themselves with exSaddam Sunni secularist militias? If ISIS were totally crazy,
how could they build a selfsustaining revenue stream from oil and organized crime
rackets? If ISIS only cared about forcing people to obey Islamic law, why would they
have sponsored children's festivals and medical clinics in the Syrian territory they
control? (To be clear, it is not out of their love for children, whom they are also happy
to murder, but a calculated desire to establish control, so ISIS is not religious, it is

politicalin fact power grabbing.)
The foundation of ISISs power comes from politics, not religion.
Virtually all Muslims reject ISIS' view of their faith. Poll after poll shows that violent
Islamist extremism and especially alQaeda are deeply unpopular in Muslimmajority
countries. The bulk of ISIS' victims are Muslims many of them Sunnis (ISIS is
itself Sunni). A popular revolt among Iraqi Sunnis, beginning around 2006,
played a huge role in defeating ISIS's predecessor group, al-Qaeda in Iraq.
ISIS's vision of Muslim life is alien to actual Islamic tradition. Fundamentalist Islam
like most religious fundamentalists is a modern phenomenon. Fundamentalist
groups, frustrated with modern politics, harken back to an idealized religious past
that never actually existed. The al-Qaeda strain of violent radicalism owes more to
20th century writers like Egyptian Muslim Brother Sayyid Qutb than the actual
postMuhammed caliphate.
So if Sunnis disagree with ISIS' theology and don't like living under its rule, why do
some of them seem to support ISIS? It's all about politics. Both Syria and Iraq have
Shia governments. Sunni Muslims aren't well-represented in either system, and
are often actively repressed. Legitimate dissent is often met with violence: Bashar
alAssad gunned down protesters in the streets during the 2011 Arab Spring
demonstrations, and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri alMaliki reacted violently a 2013
Sunni protest movement as well.so some of them join or sympathize ISIS.
ISIS used to be alQaeda in Iraq. But the group split apart from alQaeda in February
2014 because it wouldn't listen to alQaeda HQ's commands, including orders to
curtail its violence against civilians.
For years, alQaeda was the clear leader of the global jihadist movement. Mostly
established some kind of juniorpartner working relationship.
ISIS predated the Syrian civil war. It started as alQaeda in Iraq in the mid2000s and,
after that group was defeated by Iraqis and American forces around 2008, reformed in
the same country. Between 2008 and 2011, ISIS rebuilt itself out of former prisoners
and exSaddam era Iraqi army officers. ISIS did not grow out of the Syrian rebellion:
it took advantage of it.
War in Syria benefitted ISIS tremendously. It allowed ISIS to get battlefield
experience, attracted a ton of financial support from Gulf states and private
donors looking to oust Assad, and a crucial safe haven in eastern Syria. ISIS also
absorbed a lot of recruits from Syrian rebel groups
ISIS fought openly with Jabhat alNusra, which is alQaeda's Syria branch and
outperformed it on the battlefield. Today, ISIS controls far more territory in Syria
than Jabhat.
This ideological competition drives ISIS to be more violent. "They're in competition
with al-Qaeda, and they want to be the leader,"
The killing of Journalists and uploading videos on internet is a part of their
Marketing Campaign to become the leader of loosely affiliated groups.
Maliki did a number of things that unintentionally enabled ISIS' rise. He used Iraq's
counterterrorism laws to imprison Sunni dissenters. He exploited laws that prohibit

Saddamera officials from holding office (a number of those officials had been Sunni)
to boot Sunnis out of the upper echelons of the government and military. He arrested
peaceful Sunni protestors, and aligned himself with nongovernmental Shia militias
that had slaughtered Sunnis during the postinvasion civil war. And that's only a
partial list of Maliki policies that turned Sunnis against the Iraqi central government,
and thus toward ISIS.
Can USA fix this ISIS problem?
There is no magic American bullet that could fix the ISIS problem. Even an intensive,
decadeslong American ground effort something that is politically not on the table,
anyways might only make the problem worse. The reason is that ISIS's presence in
Iraq and Syria is fundamentally a political problem, not a military one.
American airpower is much less useful in dense urban combat, where it's also likely to
cause unacceptable amounts of civilian casualties. In response to a steppedup
American bombing campaign, ISIS could hunker down in fortified city positions.
That would force the Iraqi army and Kurdish forces to engage in bloody streetto
street combat. Historically, the Iraqi army has a bad track record in those fights. It
spent a good chunk of early 2014 trying to dislodge ISIS from Fallujah, a city near
Baghdad. It failed to permanently push them out, and killed a lot of Sunni civilians in
the process.
Even supporting Free Syrian Army cant help. The "moderate" Syrian rebels are too
diffuse, and fighters shift in and out of alliances with ISIS and other radical Islamists.
What should be done?
The action of 6 million Iraqis may be more important than those of 30,000 American
troops
The Abadi government will need to undertake deep, structural reforms if it wants to
address Sunni grievances. The Sunni community will have to reject ISIS and come to
terms with the Shia majority. And even if all of that happens, ISIS will still have its
base in Syria.
Once ISIS sets a mini state, economically it would face challenges to run the
government. The oil reserve areas are in South and NorthEast Iraq (Kurdish), and It
would be almst impossible to control these areas.
inevitable economic crisis in ISISheld Iraq with ISIS's brutal legal system, it seems
like Sunnis will eventually tire of the group and it will create an opening for Iraqi
Prime Ministerdelegate Haider alAbadi to reach out to disaffected Sunnis. He might
be able to make allies among Sunni tribal militias.
IRAN
Israel is worried that Iran could build nukes to use against it; Iran may be worried that
it will forever be under threat of Israeli strike until it has a nuclear deterrent. That's
called a security dilemma and it can get bad to worse.

Iran's nuclear programme became public in 2002, when an opposition group revealed
secret activity including construction of a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a
heavywater reactor at Arak.
The Iranian government subsequently agreed to inspections by the global nuclear
watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
But the IAEA was unable to confirm Iran's assertions that its nuclear programme was
exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it had not sought to develop nuclear
weapons.
This led the US and its European allies to press Iran to stop enriching uranium, which
can be used for civilian purposes but also if the concentration of the active uranium
235 isotope is 90% or above to build nuclear bombs.
However, the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 halted any
progress in talks, and the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council for
failing to comply with its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Safeguards
Agreement.
Since then, the Security Council has adopted six resolutions requiring Iran to stop
enriching uranium, some imposing sanctions.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared in 2009: "We fundamentally
reject nuclear weapons and prohibit the use and production of nuclear weapons."
But an IAEA published a report in 2011 claiming "credible" information that Iran had
carried out activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".
The report drew attention to a military complex at Parchin, south of Tehran, which the
IAEA has been unable to visit since 2005.
Reports surfaced in 2000 that a large containment vessel had been built there to
conduct hydrodynamic experiments. The IAEA said such experiments, which involve
using explosives in conjunction with nuclear material or surrogates, were "strong
indicators of possible weapon development".
In 2012, the US and EU began imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil
exports and banks, crippling Iran's economy.
Despite that, Iran continued to enrich uranium. In 2009, it disclosed the existence of a
new underground facility at Fordo.

There have been multiple rounds of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, which
comprises the five permanent members of the UN Security Council the US, UK,
France, China, Russia and Germany.
For years they failed to make headway. But the mood changed after the election of
Hassan Rouhani as president in June 2013. Five months later, following secret
bilateral talks between the US and Iran, negotiators agreed an interim deal.
Under the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), which came into force in January 2014, Iran
effectively agreed to freeze its production of enriched uranium above 5% purity and
committed to dilute or convert into oxide form its stockpile of near20% enriched
uranium. Iran said it would not install any new uranium centrifuges or build new
enrichment facilities. Iran also agreed not to commission or fuel the reactor at Arak,
and not to construct a fuel reprocessing facility there.
While most of the international sanctions regime including measures targeting Iran's
key oil, banking and financial sectors was kept in place, the P5+1 agreed to permit
Iran to repatriate about $4.2bn (2.6bn) in revenue from oil sales locked in foreign
accounts. Sales of petrochemicals and trading in gold and other precious metals were
allowed to resume, along with transactions with foreign firms involved in the Iranian
car industry. That was expected to generate about $1.5bn in revenue. Iran was also
given access to about $400m of cash to pay for tuition for Iranians studying abroad,
spare parts for civilian aircraft, and for humanitarian purchases of food and medicine.
The talks are on (October 2014) and Iran is reportedly offering to freeze the current
number of operating centrifuges for three to seven years. After that, it argues, there
must be sufficient enrichment capacity to produce fuel for the Bushehr power plant
when the reactor's fuel supply agreement with Russia expires in 2021. That would
require Iran to expand its current capacity 10fold or more, which experts say would
reduce the amount of time required to produce weaponsgrade uranium to a few
weeks. In return for higher enrichment capacity and being permitted to continue
research and development, Iran says it would accept more intrusive inspections by the
IAEA.
The P5+1 wants a sharp reduction of Iran's current enrichment capacity. It says Iran
has no compelling need to produce large amounts of fuel because Russia is prepared
to supply Bushehr's reactor for its lifetime. The P5+1 also wants to limit Iran's R&D
activities, which could enhance centrifuge efficiency. It believes the restrictions
should remain in place for at least two decades and be backedup by extensive
monitoring.
TUNISIA
National Constitution Assembly (NCA) was formed in October 2011, could not draft
a constitution till 2014.
February 2013: Chokri Belaid, SDPP (Secular Democratic Patriot party)'s General
Secretary was killed.
Hemadi Jebali had offered dissolving of the current govt and formation of more
secular technocratic govt.
Ennahda is said to be involved, Innahada supports the current governement.
Tunisia had opted for a relatively secular constitution.
INDIA TUNISIA: Joint Working Groups in (i) Information and Communications
Technology, (ii) Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), (iii) Drugs and
Pharmaceuticals, (iv) Hydrocarbon sector, and (v) Textiles, which have been meeting
regularly.
TURKEY

Plan to make pedestrian structures and rebuilding Ottomon era Military Barracks at
Takshim Square was opposed and crushed by the govt.
It brought international condemnation.
The army toppled four governments since 1960 because it had powers to intervene in
the govt. Turkish parliament amended article 35 which says, Defending the Turkish
nation against external threats and dangers.
Erdogan had been successful in crushing the protests effectively.
India UAE
Please Write the names of all 7 Emirates...1) Dubai 2) Abu Dhabi....
IndiaUAE trade, valued at US$ 180 million per annum in the 1970s, is today is close
to US$75 billion making UAE, Indias largest trading partner.
India's major export items to the UAE are: Petroleum Products, Precious Metals,
Stones, Gems & Jewellery, Minerals, Food Items (Cereals, Sugar, Fruits &
Vegetables, Tea, Meat, and Seafood), Textiles (Garments, Apparel, Synthetic fibre,
Cotton, Yarn) and Engineering & Machinery Products and Chemicals.
Indias major import items from the UAE are: Petroleum and Petroleum Products,
Precious Metals, Stones, Gems & Jewellery, Minerals, Chemicals, Wood & Wood
Products.
There is an estimated US$8 billion UAE investment in India of which around US$2.3
billion is in the form of foreign direct investment
UAE is the tenth biggest investor in India in terms of FDI.
The annual remittances made by the large Indian community in UAE
is....................(Your task).
SAUDI ARABIA
NITAQAT LAW
Cheap availability of foreign workforce Saudis private companies started to
completely ignore their native workers. As a result, the unemployment rate among
Saudi nationals has reached 12 per cent.
A report shows, more than 6.5 million nonSaudis are working in the private sector of
the Kingdom compared to 7,00,000 Saudis.
Nitaqat means naturalisation law, aimed at eliminating unemployment and localising
jobs in the Kingdom, under which 10 per cent jobs would be reserved for Saudi
nationals.
The Nitaqat, divides the Saudi labour market into 41 activities (real estate, builders,
hotels etc). each of this activity is further classified according to their sizes Giant,
Large, Medium, Small and Very Small. Totally 415= 205 categories.
Again Nitaqat classifies establishments into ranges Blue, Green, Yellow and Red,
based on the Citizen : Immigrant ratio of the company. The Excellent and Green
range, which are the ranges with the highest localisation ratios, will be rewarded with
incentives like tax cut etc, while yellow and Red would be treated appropriately to
increase the ratio of domestic workforce.
5 million Indian workers are working in Gulf countries. From this 5 million more than
85% are hailing from Kerala.
ISRAEL
Israel's 1947 founding and the 1948 Israeli-Arab War
These three maps show how Israel went from not existing to, in 1947 and 1948, establishing
its national borders. It's hard to identify a single clearest start point to the IsraelPalestine
conflict, On the map (shown in pic) these are the borders that the United Nations demarcated
in 1947 for a Jewish state and an Arab
state, in what had been Britishcontrolled
territory. The Palestinians fought the deal,
and in 1948 the Arab states of Egypt,
Jordan, Iraq, and Syria invaded. First
ARAB pushed back the Jewish armies.
How the war ended with a changed map,
with an Israeli counterattack that occupied
and claimed its new national borders.
The middle map shows, in green, how far
they pushed back the Jewish armies. The
righthand map shows how the war ended:
with an Israeli counterattack that pushed
into the orange territory, and with Israel
claiming that as its new national borders.
The green is what was left for
Palestinians.
The 1967 Israeli-Arab War that set today's borders
These three maps show how those 1948 borders became what they are today. The map on left
shows the Palestinian territories of Gaza, which was under Egyptian control, and the West

Bank, under Jordanian control. In 1967, Israel fought a war with Egypt, Jordan, and Syria.
The war ended with Israel occupying both of the Palestinian territories, plus the Golan
Heights in Syria and Egypt's Sinai peninsula: that's shown in the right map. Israel gave Sinai
back as part of a 1979 peace deal, but it still occupies those other territories. Gaza is today
under Israeli blockade, while the West Bank is increasingly filling with Israeli settlers. The
third map shows how the West Bank has been divided into areas of full Palestinian control
,joint IsraeliPalestinian control , and full Israeli control .
Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank

Since 1967, Israelis have been moving into settlements in the West Bank. Some go for
religious reasons, some because they want to claim Palestinian land for Israel, and some just
because they get cheap housing from subsidies. There about 500,000 settlers in 130
communities, which you can see in this map. The settlements make peace harder, which is
sometimes the point: for Palestinians to have a state, the settlers will either to have to be
removed en masse, or Palestinians would have to give up some of their land. The settlements
also make life harder for Palestinians today, dividing communities and imposing onerous
Israeli security. This is why the US and the rest of the world oppose Israeli settlements. But
Israel is continuing to expand them anyway, it seems.

at
08: IndiaCentral AsiaRussia

Introduction: Central Asia
Central Asia has once again become the center of geostrategic calculations. Russia,
China, US, Turkey, Iran, Europe, EU, Japan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan have all
substantial security and economic interests in the region.
Kazakhstan is a huge land mass with few people, full of oil, natural gas, gold, uranium,
copper and many other minerals, and with vast agricultural potential.
Country
Population
Resources
Ethnic Composition
(Approx)
Kazakhstan
1.6 Crores
Kazak (53%), Russian Petroleum, Natural Gas,
(30%), Ukrainian
Iron Ore, Molybdenum,
(3.7%), Uzbek (2.5%) Gold, Uranium
and Germans, Tartar
and Uighyrs
Turkmenistan 5 Millions
Turkmen (85%),
Petroleum, natural gas,
Uzbek (5%), Russian
sulphur and salt
(4%) and others
Uzbekistan
2.8 Crores
Uzbek 80, Russian 5.5, Natural Gas, Petroleum,
Tajik 5, Kazakh 3,
Coal, Gold, Uranium,
Karakalpak 2.5, Tatar
Molybdenum,
1.5, other 2.5
Kyrgyzstan
5.5. Millions
Kyrgyz 64.9, Uzbek
hydropower; significant
13.8, Russian 12.5,
deposits of gold and rare
Dungan 1.1, Ukrainian earth metals
1, Uighur 1, other 5.7
Tajikistan
8 Millions
Tajik 79.9, Uzbek
Hydropower, uranium,
15.3, Russian 1.1,
mercury, antimony,
Kyrgyz 1.1, other 2.6
tungsten and gold
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have small populations, and lots of oil and gas,
respectively.
Uzbekistan has a sizeable population and is a big producer of cotton and gold.
Kirgizstan has a bit of gold and lots of watera resource that could conceivably
become more important than oil within a generation.
Tajikistan has some gold and not much else.
Culturally, linguistically and historically many of the borders between them are
artificial.
o Iran is home to more Azeris than Azerbaijan.
o 1m Kazakhs live in China.
o Uzbeks form an important ethnic group in Afghanistan.
o Tajiks speak Persian.
o Azeris, Turkmen, Uzbeks and Kazakhs speak Turkic languages.
o A Turk from Ankara can easily be understood in Ashgabat, the capital of
Turkmenistan.

U.S. military bases have also been established in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan,
causing both Russia and the People's Republic of China to voice their concern over a
permanent U.S. military presence in the region.
Central Asia is part of several struggles that intermittently see external actors compete
for attention and ultimately for access to resources.
In an increasingly energy hungry world, Central Asia's resources are attracting
growing interest.
The heightened importance of Central Asia in the post9/11 environment has created
an altered reality.
Dams Controversy In Central Asia(Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan And Tajikistan)
TAJIKISTAN is building the worlds tallest hydroelectric dam, Rogun.
Uzbekistan, says the proposed 335metre Rogun dam, on a tributary of the Amu
Darya, will give Tajikistan unfair control over water resources and endanger millions
in the event of an
earthquake.
On Syr Darya, Kyrgyzstan is
seeking investment for a
project of its own, called
Kambarata.
The two proposed dams
(Rogun at 3.6 gigawatts and
Kambarata at 1.9) would
theoretically end their
respective countries
frequent power shortages and
provide badly needed export
earnings.
Russias president, Vladimir
Putin, promised help with
Kambarata in exchange for,
among other things, an
extension of militarybasing
rights in Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike Uzbekistan, neither Tajikistan nor Kyrgyzstan, the two poorest former Soviet
republics, has reliable access to oil or gas.
Uzbekistan has a habit of changing gas prices and cutting deliveries during the coldest
months.
Uzbekistan has also unilaterally closed most border checkpoints with both upstream
countries, set mines along parts of the boundary with Tajikistan, and often holds up
commercial traffic.
A rail bridge in southern Uzbekistan mysteriously exploded, depriving southern
Tajikistan of its rail connections, few believed Uzbek claims of a terrorist attack.
Indeed, rather than fix the track, the Uzbeks dismantled it. Tajikistan calls the actions a
blockade.
Gas Pipelines in Central Asia and neighbors (Pic says everything, just listen in the class :-)
India-Turkmenistan
India has offered setting up of Educational satellite which would be connected with
National Knowledge Network (NKN).
Joint venture proposed to manufacture and distribute low cost tabletAkash.
TAPI pipeline: The ADB has cautioned that the project cost may exceed $10 billion
against earlier estimate of $7.5 billion because of long delay in starting work on the
pipeline.
The four countries that are part of the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India
(TAPI) of 1,800km pipeline gas pipeline project have selected two USbased energy
giants for financing and operating the multibilliondollar pipeline(Chevron and
ExxonMobil).

The design capacity of TAPI is 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from
Ghalkhynys Field.
India also airlifted 50 bed, 55 personnel military hospital in C130J "Super Hercules"
to establish the "IndiaTajik Friendship Hospital" in southern Tajikistan
India-Kazakhstan
2011: ONGCVL acquisition of 25 per cent stake in its Satpayev exploration block
in the Caspian Sea.
India is working towards the development of its civilian nuclear energy industry as a
clean alternative to satisfy its huge energy needs
India has also provided support and emerged as a partner in Kazakhstan's bid to
develop a naval fleet in the Caspian Sea, despite opposition from Kazakhstan's
northern neighbour, Russia.
A new hardrocarbon pipeline has been proposed.
o It would cover about 1,500 km and is longer than TAPI.
o It will head from the former Silk Road caravanserai city of Shymkent (Oil
Refinery).
India Tajikistan
The bilateral relations between the Republic of India and the Republic of Tajikistan
have developed considerably owing to both nations' cooperation on security and
strategic issues.
India has set up its first overseas military base in Tajikistan.
India's role in fighting the Taliban and AlQaeda and its strategic rivalry with both
China and Pakistan has made its ties with Tajikistan important to its strategic and
security policies.
India is only the fourth nation after the US, Russia and Germany to have a
military base in Central Asia.
The Farkhor Air Base became fully operational in 2006, and 12 MiG29 fighters and
trainer aircraft are planned to be stationed there by India. Pakistan objected to it.
Under ITEC (Technical & Economic Cooperation Program) many officers were
trained by India.
Tajik military cadets and young officers underwent training at National Defence
Academy in Pune, Indian Military Academy in Dehradun.
India And Central Asia Region
India has geographic proximity to the Central Asian region.
India enjoys considerable influence on Afghanistan.
India maintains a military base at Farkhor, Tajikistan, and also has extensive
military relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The key constraint India faces is the lack of direct access to Central Asia. The unstable
situation in Afghanistan and a highly problematic IndiaPakistan relation have
deprived India from the benefit of relations with Central Asia.
The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline (TAPI) would be a game
changer if it materializes. However, despite some positive developments like the
signing of an inter-governmental agreement, realization of TAPI is still some
distance away.

Utilizing Chabahar poprt and developing International North South Transport Corridor
(INSTC) must be the top priority of Indias foreign policy.
India has come up with a Connect Central Asia policy (2012
o High level visits, strategic partnerships, comprehensive economic engagement.
o Partnership in the development of energy and natural resources.
o Development of potential in medical field, education, enetworks, land
connectivity etc.
o There is a need for allocation of definite resource and institutional for the
faster implementation of the policy.
India must follow relaxation of visa regimes to enhance business.
Central Asia Trade is near $ 700 million as compared to Chinas $ 46 billion.
India could consider setting up an IndiaCentral Asia Forum (on the lines of India
Africa Forum) to deal with the region in a holistic fashion.
The best way forward would be to identify a few projects and implement them. A few
suggestions are as follows:
Develop Chabahar port on priority.
Invest in infrastructure in Iran to make INSTC effective.
To follow up the points mentioned in Connect Central Asia Policy with adequate
resources and implementation mechanisms.
To institute and strengthen defence and security dialogue with Central Asian
countries.
India should not simply be following the Russian or the Chinese leads in the SCO.
Can a strategic dialogue forum be set up between India and CARs.
Education and medical field provide an excellent opportunity for India to showcase
its soft power.
Pullout From Afghanistan And Its Impact On Central Asia
To the east, Pakistan in 2012 suffered more civilian deaths from terrorism and
sectarian violence than did Afghanistan itself.
To the north, the five former Soviet republics of Central Asia also face instability.
Ethnic kinship with minorities in Afghanistan has long helped draw both Tajiks and
Uzbeks into its civil wars.
Tajikistan is the closest to a failed state. The writ of the president, Emomali
Rakhmon, is weak in some parts of the country where local warlords rule the roost.
Kyrgyzstan had five governments in four
years.
Turkmenistan is a closed and unpredictable
place.
Poor relations among the five Stans are
apparent. We have seen in water Dam
Disputes.
The three dispute territory in the Fergana
valley. And Uzbekistan worries about plans
in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to build dams
upstream on its rivers.

Mr Karimov likes to cut off gas supplies and close the borders with both neighbours,
aggravating social and ethnic tensions in the regions two poorest countries.
NATO is being requested excess defence articles (EDA. That is surplus military
kit from the war; that would be used, in theory for the counternarcotic struggle.
Kyrgyzstan, where the Manas airbase has been a stop for most American troops en
route to the Afghan war, has become, like Tajikistan, economically dependent on
Russia.
Remittances from migrant workers in Russia are equivalent to some 29% of
Kyrgyzstans GDP and 47% of Tajikistans. In both countries Russia maintains big
military bases.
Russia wants the Americans out of Manas, when the lease expires in mid2014.
It may move to a base in southern Kazakhstan. Or it may return to Uzbekistan, from
which it was forced out in 2005.
Last year, Uzbekistan left the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a
Russianled club that gives members a veto over new foreign military bases.
Violence, the religious extremism and the warlordbacked drug trade it has fostered
do not respect frontiers, especially when, as with the border between Afghanistan and
Tajikistan, they are largely theoretical.
If Afghanistan is not at peace, some of its neighbours would also not be at peace too.
China And Central Asia
China already has three profound interests in Central Asia: in securing supplies of
energy; in the land route to Europe; and in ensuring stability in its own, restless part of
Central Asia, Xinjiang. Russia dominated Central Asias energy infrastructure and
markets.
When a new field comes on stream, the pipelines head east, to China.
In Turkmenistan, already Chinas largest foreign supplier of natural gas, Mr Xi
inaugurated production at the worlds secondbiggest gasfield, Galkynysh.
In Kazakhstan $30 billion of announced deals included a stake in Kashagan, the
worlds largest oil discovery in recent decades.
In Uzbekistan Mr Xi and his host, President Islam Karimov, unveiled $15 billion in oil,
gas and uranium deals..
China is the biggest trading partner of four of the regions five countries (the exception
being Uzbekistan).
Russia still controls the majority of Central Asias energy exports, but its relative
economic clout in the region is slippingother than as a destination for millions of
migrant labourers.
For years the region had been exclusive province, buying oil and gas at belowmarket
rates through Sovietera pipelines, while reexporting it at a markup.
Russia and china will cooperate in the short run. Mr. Xi visited Russia for G20 and his
first tour was to Moscow.
Threat posed by Uighur separatists and their sympathisers in Central Asia is another
concern for china.
When Kyrgyzstan ceded disputed territory to China a decade ago, the protests which
that set off eventually brought down the president. Chinese workers in Kyrgyzstan
have been getting badly beaten up. Central Asia is not yet happily in the Chinese fold.
Kashagan Oil Field
Kashagan Field is an offshore oil field in the Kazakhstan's zone of the Caspian Sea.
The field, discovered in 2000, is located in the

northern part of the Caspian Sea close to Atyrau
and it is considered the world's largest discovery
in the last 30 years, combined with the Tengiz
Field.
Estimated oil in place is 38,000 million barrels
and Recoverable oil is13,000 million barrels
India's ONGCOVL lost the Kashagan oilfield to
the Chinese after Kazakhstan blocked its $5 Bn
deal to buy US energy major ConocoPhillips'
stake in the Caspian Sea oilfield.
International NorthSouth Transport Corridor

The NorthSouth Transport Corridor is the ship, rail, and road route for moving
freight from South Asia to
Europe through Central
Asia, the Caucasus, and
Russia.
The route primarily involves
moving goods from India
via ship to Iran.
From Iran, the freight
moves by ship across the
Caspian Sea or by truck or
rail to Southern Russia.
From there, the goods are
transported by truck or rail along the Volga River through Moscow to Northern
Europe.
Eurasian Union
Eurasian Union would start functioning from 2015.

By 2025, a common financial megaregulator and members would try to arrive at
common macroeconomic, antimonopoly, foreign currency, and financial policy.
Also intends set up a common oil and gas market.

By 2019, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus intend to create a common electricity
market, while a single pharmaceutical market should start operating from January 1,
2016.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Partnership or alliance?
It is a Eurasian political, economic and military organisation which was founded
in 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia,
Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
The United States applied for observer status, but its application was rejected in 2006.
In Bishkek, SCO member states issued a series of joint statements bluntly rebuffed
Western geopolitical aims across the world and endorsed Irans right to use nuclear
power for peaceful purposes.
Putin said Tehran also had the right to enrich uranium and hailed what he called its
"readiness" to disclose its nuclear program to international inspections. Leaders also
discussed the Afghanistan Scenario.
As befitting its origin as a regional security organization, the SCO mainly focused on security
issues, from counterterrorism to Afghan stability, but also touched on economic
cooperation.
In September, 2014 the 14th summit concluded, In a major step forward in expanding its
regional clout, the SCO finalized procedures for taking in new members, with India,
Pakistan, and Iran first on the list.
Regional players, led by the SCO, handling regional security, thus eliminating the need for
extraregional actors (as Xi puts it)
Question: Should India join SCO? (100 words)

Mail the answer to me, if you wish to be checked.
India Russia
India Russia
India Russia relationship can be described in
o Geopolitics.
o Defense
o Civil nuclear energy
o Antiterrorism cooperation
o Space.
o Economic relations (In recent years)
India and Russia jointly collaborate closely on matters of shared national interest.
Important examples include the UN, BRICS, G20 and SCO
Russia has stated publicly that it supports India receiving a permanent seat on the
United Nations Security Council.
Russia has expressed interest in joining SAARC with observer status in which India
is a founding member.
India supported the secession of East Pakistan (Bangladesh) and, signed a treaty of
friendship and collaboration with the Soviet Union in August 1971 as a security hedge
against China.
Russia currently is one of only two countries in the world (the other being Japan) that
has a mechanism for annual ministeriallevel defence reviews with India.
1962 the Soviet Union agreed to transfer technology to coproduce the MiG21 jet
fighter in India, which the Soviet Union had earlier denied to China.
India is the second largest market for the Russian defence industry. In 2004, more
than 70% of the Indian Military's hardware came from Russia, making Russia the
chief supplier of defence equipment
The cooperation is not limited to a buyerseller relationship but includes joint
research and development, training, service to service contacts, including joint
exercises.
o BrahMos cruise missile programme
o 5th generation fighter jet programme
o Sukhoi Su30MKI programme (230+ to be built by Hindustan Aeronautics)
o Ilyushin/HAL Tactical Transport Aircraft
Both countries signed a defence deal worth $2.9 billion during President Putin's visit
to India in December 2012.
Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project with two units of 1000 MW each is a good
example of IndoRussian nuclear energy cooperation.
With West Asia in a state of perpetual turmoil, India can look to diversify its energy
imports by exploring hydrocarbon investment opportunities in Russias Far East,
Arctic and Siberian regions.

Russias offer of a stake in the Madagan2 oilfield along with GAILs 20 year, 2.5
million annual tonnesof LNG deal with Gazprom can just be the beginning of a
more robust IndiaRussia energy cooperation.
InterGovernmental umbrella Agreement on cooperation in the outer space for
peaceful purposes and the Inter Space Agency Agreement on cooperation in the
Russian satellite navigation system "GLONASS".
Earlier Chandrayaan2 was also conceived as a joint mission.
Both countries are looking to develop a free trade agreement.

Bilateral trade between both countries in 2012 grew by over 30%.
The major Indian exports to Russia are pharmaceuticals; tea, coffee and spices;
apparel and clothing; edible preparations; and engineering goods.
Main Indian imports from Russia are iron and steel; fertilisers; nonferrous metals;
paper products; coal, cereals, and rubber.
In 2001, ONGCVidesh Limited acquired 20% stake in the SakhalinI oil and gas
project in the Russian Federation, and has invested about US $1.7 billion in the
project.
The Ukraine Issue

Ukraine is a buffer zone between Russia and Europe. It was part of the Soviet Union
until 1991, and since then has been a lessthanperfect democracy with a very weak
economy and foreign policy that wavers between proRussian and proEuropean.
President Viktor Yanukovych rejected a deal for greater integration with the European
Union sparking mass protests, which Yanukovych attempted to put down violently.
Russia backed Yanukovych in the crisis, while the US and Europe supported the
protesters.
In February, antigovernment protests toppled the government and ran Yanukovych
out of the country.
Russia, trying to salvage its lost influence in Ukraine, annexed Crimea.
In April, proRussia separatist rebels began seizing territory in eastern Ukraine. The
rebels shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17 on July 17, killing 298 people, probably
accidentally.
Fighting between the rebels and the Ukrainian military intensified, West blames that
the Russian army overtly invaded eastern Ukraine to support the rebels.
This has all brought the relationship between Russia and the West to its lowest point
since the Cold War. Sanctions are pushing the Russian economy to the brink of
recession, and more than 2,500 Ukrainians have been killed.
How did Ukraine get so divided?

Ukraine's presentday borders are very new and that its historical ties to Russia are
very old.
In the 1700s, when Russian leader Catherine the Great began a process of
"Russifying" Ukraine making it Russian that continued right up through the

1950s. This meant shipping in ethnic Russians, imposing laws that required schools to
teach the Russian rather than Ukrainian language, and stationing lots of Russian
troops in the area.
In the 1930s, Soviet leader Josef Stalin caused a famine in Ukraine that killed several
million Ukrainians, mostly in the east (As Britishers killed Indians in 1943 Bengal
Femine). He then repopulated the area with ethnic Russians.
In the 1940s, Stalin forcibly relocated the ethnic Tatars who dominated Crimea's
population, replacing them with Russians as well.
What is Crimea?
Crimea is considered by most of the world to be a region of Ukraine that's under
hostile Russian occupation. Russia considers it a rightful and historical region of
Russia that it helped to liberate in March. Geographically, it is a peninsula in the
Black Sea with a location so strategically important that it has been fought over for
centuries.
From Ukraine's 1991 independence up
through February 2014, it was a Ukrainian
region that had special autonomy and large
Russian military bases (kind of like how the
US has bases in Japan and Germany).
What is eastern Ukraine conflict? What does
Russia have to do with it?
The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in
April 2014 with lowlevel fighting between
the Ukrainian military and Russian
backed(As western media claims) separatist rebels who seized some towns in
predominantly Russianspeaking eastern Ukraine.
They seized towns like Sloviansk and Donetsk, in the eastern region known as
Donbas, ostensibly in outrage against the protests that had toppled Ukraine's pro
Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, himself from that same eastern region.
Important rebel leaders, Igor "Strelkov" Girkin, is a Russian citizen and military
veteran who retired from Russia's internal security services.
For months, Ukraine did not move very aggressively against the rebels, if they did, he
would blame the Ukrainian government for any deaths and invade to protect the
Russianspeaking citizens of eastern Ukraine, whom he implicitly considers to be
more Russian than Ukrainian. Everyone wanted to negotiate a peace deal.
Things got bad in early July, when the Ukrainian government launched an offensive
to push out the rebels once and for all. Russia started arming the rebels with hightech
surfacetoair missiles; on July 17 a civilian airliner with 298 people on board was
shot down over eastern Ukraine, most likely accidentally by the rebels , and the world

had finally had enough. Ukraine redoubled its offensive, the rebels looked on the
verge of getting overrun, and in midAugust Russia escalated from covertly
supporting the rebels to overtly invading with Russian military troops.
The ceasefire is being signed between the rebels (they call it) and the Ukrainian
govt.
This all started with the Euromaidan protests, right? Whats that?
"Euromaidan" is the name of the antigovernment protests, beginning on November
21, 2013, in the Ukrainian capital of Kiev that kicked off the entire crisis. They're
called the "Euromaidan" protests because they were about Europe and they happened
in Kiev's Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square).
The first, surface reason for the protests was that President Yanukovych had rejected a
deal for greater integration with the European Union, taking a $15 billion bailout from
Russia instead. Lots of Ukrainians had wanted the EU deal, partly because they
thought it would help Ukraine's deeply troubled economy, and partly because they
saw closer ties with Europe as culturally and politically desirable.
The second, deeper reason for the protests was that many Ukrainians saw
Yanukovych as corrupt and autocratic and as a stooge of Russia. So his decision to
reject the EU deal felt, to many Ukrainians, like he had sold out their country to
Moscow. This is why the protesters so quickly expanded their demands from "sign the
EU deal" to "Yanukovych must step down."
Over the months that followed, Yanukovych tried to break up the protests, first by
sending in the dreaded "berkut" internal security forces to crack down, and next by
passing a series of laws that severely restricted Ukrainians' basic rights of speech and
assembly. Both of these just made protests worse. By late January, they'd expanded to
lots of other Ukrainian cities. In February, the parliament turned against Yanukovych,
first voting to remove lots of his powers and end the crackdown, and then voting to
remove him outright.
Not all Ukrainians supported the protests or their agenda; many had wanted the
Russia bailout and wanted Yanukovych to stay. Euromaidan also included a number
of farright ultranationalist groups, some of whom have been violent. This is why the
Russian government and some Ukrainians, particularly in the more Russianspeaking
east, see the protests as effectively disenfranchising Russianspeaking Ukrainians.
In late February, a few days after Ukraine's proMoscow president was ousted from
power, strange bands of armed gunmen began seizing government buildings in
Crimea. Some Crimeans held rallies to show support for the ousted president and, in
some cases, to call to secede from Ukraine and rejoin Russia. The bands of gunmen
grew until it became obvious they were Russian military forces, who forcefully but
bloodlessly brought the entire peninsula under military occupation. On March 16,
Crimeans voted overwhelmingly for their region to become a part of Russia.
Most of the world sees Crimea's secession vote as illegitimate for a few reasons: it
was held under hostile Russian military occupation with no international
monitoring and many reports of intimidation, it was pushed through with only a

couple of weeks' warning, and it was illegal under Ukrainian law. Still, legitimate or
not, Crimea has effectively become part of Russia. The US and European Union have
imposed economic sanctions on Russia to punish Moscow for this, but there is no sign
that Crimea will return to Ukraine.
What is Putin trying to accomplish?
There are three different ways to think about President Vladimir Putin's decision to
annex the Ukrainian region of Crimea, to support separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine,
and ultimate to invade. There's probably some truth to all three.
1) He wants to stir up nationalism at home for political purposes
Putin's popularity had been sinking since the economy cratered in 2009, and, in 2012,
Russians protested against his fraudridden reelection, sending him into a paranoid
obsession with what he sees as hostile efforts to topple him from power. He
responded by stirring up Russian nationalism and antiWestern fear. In March 2014,
he used these ideas as justification for annexing Crimea which sent his popularity
skyrocketing. Since the crisis began, Putin has also been cracking down severely on
dissent within Russia, something it's easier to get away with while the world is
distracted by Ukraine. But this nationalism may have grown beyond his control:
Russia's farright is more powerful than ever, and, with the economy on the verge of
sanctionsimposed recession, Putin is so reliant on maintaining the nationalist fervor
that he invaded eastern Ukraine even though this will clearly make things worse for
him.
2) He saw an opportunity to grab territory and influence for strategic purposes
Russia does have a big naval base on Crimea, which it sees as strategically essential to
projecting Russian power into the Black and Mediterranean Seas, and lots of
economic and industrial interests in eastern Ukraine. Putin likely saw a chance to
quietly seize Crimea on the pretense of protecting it from Ukraine's chaos and serving
the wishes of Crimeans to rejoin Russia. This same opportunism could apply for the
ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine: maybe he wants to invade to annex the territory and
maybe he's just trying to force Ukraine to adopt a federal system, but either outcome
could be about maintaining Russian influence.
3) He earnestly believes he is saving fellow Russian-speakers from a Western conspiracy
It's entirely possible that Putin believes his own rhetoric, which says that Crimeans
and eastern Ukrainians were calling to be saved by Russian military intervention, that
the Ukrainian government has been seized by actual Nazis backed by the West, and
that Moscow's political authority extends beyond Russia's borders to all Russian
speakers everywhere, including in Crimea and in eastern Ukraine.
After speaking with Putin in early March, Chancellor Angela Merkel describedhim as
out of touch with reality and "in another world."

Is the Ukraine crisis a new Cold War?
Not really. The Cold War was a global struggle for hegemony between two, roughly
coequal powers. It divided Europe between west and east and then divided much of
the world. It included bloody proxy wars on just about every continent, and raised a
very serious risk of global thermonuclear war.( We have seen in the class)
None of that is true today. The US is many times more powerful and influential than
Russia; neither America nor the Western world nor democracy itself is at any real
risk. More to the point, almost the entire world opposes Russia's annexation of
Crimea. President Obama has described Russia's actions as the behavior of a weak
country. He is broadly correct, although Russia is clearly still strong enough to annex
neighboring territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is certainly acting as if his country is in geopolitical
competition with the West. He's become much more aggressive about asserting
Russia's influence: he fought a brief war with the former Soviet republic of Georgia in
2008, set up a Eurasian trade union he wants to become a competitor to the European
Union, and is arming and protecting the Syrian government as if that country's war
were a Cold Warstyle proxy conflict. Putin clearly wants to reclaim some of Russia's
past greatness, which in practice has meant asserting Russian power and positioning
himself as a legitimate competitor to the Western world.
Still, this competition is limited to former Soviet republics and Syria. It is nowhere
near the global conflict of the Cold War.
09: India Europe

India UK
The decision of the UK government to press ahead with new visa norms that would
require 'high risk' visitors from India to furnish a 3,000 bond to obtain a sixmonth
visitor visa has elicited sharp reactions.
The move is discriminatory and borderline racist, raising the possibility of the matter
being referred to the European Court of Human Rights.
Both Nations Inked an MOU on Urban regeneration and development along with
MoU on cooperation in health sector.
UK is willing to develop Bangalore Mumbai Industrial Corridor with 9 districts and
USD$25 Bn.
Both have the same vision for a renewed and enhanced partnership and working
together to address the challenges of global poverty and development, reform of
global institutions, terrorism and climate change as well as from appeals for a better
appreciation of each others core concerns including on the security environment and
particularly the challenge of terrorism.
India France
ISRO and CNES (French National Space Agency) have an umbrella agreement,
operating successfully since 1993, under which joint missions had been taken
o MeghaTropiques was launched by PSLV, It is designed to study tropical
weather.
o SARAL (Satellite for ARGOS and ALTIKA), carrying a Kaband altimeter to
study the ocean surface and a platform for collecting data was successfully
launched by PSLV on February 25, 2013
The CEP for 201315 was signed during the visit of French President on February 14,
2013 for enhancing exchange between artists, architects, cultural stakeholders,
students, teachers, researchers and sportspersons and, thereby, strengthening people to
people relationship.
French company would go ahead for Areva nuclear power plants at Jaitapur Plant.
Both countries had Signed MoU for cooperation in Railway Sector.
bilateral exercise 'Shakti' in September 2013 in France between the two armies.
The two sides are also holding negotiations for a Rs 30,000crore project for co
developing the Maitri surfacetoair missile defence system.
Negotiations between India and France are in final stages for the Rs 50,000crore deal
for procuring 126 Rafale combat aircraft for the Indian Air Force.
Chanel FRANCE 24 would be available for Indian viewers from this year itself.
France is the 9th largest foreign investor in India with a cumulative investment of
approximately 2.31 billion (USD 3.01 billion) during the period April 2000 to June
2012 which represents 2% of total FDI equity inflows into India for the period.

CORSICA ISLAND
It is a French island in the Mediterranean Sea. It is located west of Italy, southeast of

the French mainland, and north of the Italian island of Sardinia
Corsica is currently governed in almost the same way as any other rgion of France.
There are several nationalist movements on the island calling for some degree of
Corsican autonomy from France or even full independence.
The island was definitively taken over by the French under Napoleon in 1796.
National Liberation Front of Corsica is a militant group that advocates an independent
state on the island of Corsica, separate from France.
India Switzerland
Bilateral trade is around 5 Bn.

Switzerland and India have concluded19 bilateral agreements.: trade, education and
development cooperation.
An estimated 170 Swiss companies were present in India through joint ventures or
subsidiaries. Most of these companies are active in the fields of equipment and
machinery for manufacturing, engineering, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, precision
instruments and textiles.
A regular political dialogue has been taking place since 2005.
India is one of the seven nonEuropean countries that Switzerland considers as
priorities for its bilateral research cooperation in the field of science and technology.
India Ukraine
Signed 5 agreements in the areas of Defence, Nuclear, Science and

Technology.Ukraine is overhauling and modernizing AN32 fleet.
Purchase of Kolchuga system is for tracking stealth is in pipeline.
Ukraine has got vast Nuclear Energy Experience which can be of great value for
India.
Trade which is of of $3 billion in 2012, has enormous potential for growth because
our economies are mutually complementary.
Ukraine is offering India cooperation in fields where Ukraine is very strong
aviation, space, energy, metallurgy, shipbuilding, engineering, chemistry and
infrastructure building
Last year, Ukraine has enacted legislation to promote publicprivate partnership and
created favorable conditions for foreign investment. But the Crimea and eastern
Ukrain Crisis created hurdles in the relationship.
India Italy
India has almost cancelled the VVIP Chopper deal. (Discussed Separately)
Italian marines accused of killing two fisherman. (Discussed Separately.
India Portugal

The Social Security Agreement between India and Republic of Portugal will provide
the following benefits to Indian national working in Portugal:
For short term contract upto 5 year, no social security contribution would need to be
paid under the Portuguese law by the detached workers provided they continue to
make social security payment in India.
The above benefits shall be available even when the Indian company sends its
employees to Republic of Portugal from a third country.
Indian workers shall be entitled to the export of the social security benefit if they
relocate to India after the completion of their service in Republic of Portugal.
The selfemployed Indians in Republic of Portugal would also be entitled to export of
social security benefit on their relocation to India.
The period of contribution in one contracting state will be added to the period of
contribution in the second contracting state for determining the eligibility for social
security benefits.
India has so far signed the SSA with seventeen countries viz. Belgium, Germany
(Social Insurance), Switzerland, France, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Hungary,
Denmark, The Czech Republic, Republic of Korea, Norway, Germany
(Comprehensive SSA), Finland, Canada, Japan, Sweden and Austria.
India Spain
India and Spainhave five agreements

1. A Protocol for amending the Convention and Protocol between India and Spain for
the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to
taxes on income and on capital.
2. A Memorandum of Understanding on Defence Cooperation.
3. A Memorandum of Understanding on Roads and Road Transport Sector.
4. An agreement between India and Spain in the field of audiovisual coproduction.
5. This agreement will promote and facilitate the coproduction of films between the two
countries.
6. A Memorandum of Understanding between the Indian Railways and RENFE
OPERADORA AND ADIF of Spain on technical cooperation in the field of railway
sector.
India Germany
Germany is the most populous country in Europe with a population of 82 million and
an area of 357, 000 sq. kms.
It is the 4th largest economy in the world with a GDP of US $ 3.5 trillion and
contributes about 20 % of the EU budget.
Germany is Indias biggest trading partner in Europe, its 5th biggest trading partner in
the world, 8th largest source of FDI and 2nd most important partner in terms of
technological collaborations.
Germany is helping India implement UPNRM (Umbrella Program for Natural
Resource Management.)

Germany has also provided Soft Loan for Green Energy Corridor (Discussed in
previous Infra Class)
2013 April: Indias PM Visited Germany. Signed Six agreements in the area of trade,
bilateral investment, energy, energy security, the environment, culture, education,
training, research, technology and defence.
Day of India in Germany 2012-13: In order to mark the 60th anniversary of the
establishment of the diplomatic relations between India and Germany, the two
governments celebrated Festivals with various cultural, economic and commercial
events. (Naach Gaana)
Cyprus Bailout
Cyprus entire economy equals a mere 0.2% of the euro zones entire GDP.
The volume of Cypriot banks is seven times bigger than the countrys GDP.
High interest rates and easy access have attracted a lot of foreign capital to Cyprus,
and the country has developed a reputation for being a tax haven and even a money
laundering location.
Cypriot banks high exposure to bad Greek debt meant that when Greece negotiated a
debt writeoff for its struggling financial institutes in February 2012, Cyprus took a
severe blow.
Cyprus found itself in a situation where it needed 17 billion, and fast.
Taxing 6.7% of deposit if savings are less than Euro100,000 in bank accounts and
10% if it was more was proposed.
Augustawestlands12 AW101
AgustaWestland is the UKbased subsidiary of Italian conglomerate Finmeccanica.

The company "violated" contractual provisions in the deal inked in February 2010 for
the 12 AW101 choppers.
There was "a clear violation of the integrity pact and the contractual obligations" by
AgustaWestland. The provisions provide for "strict action including the cancellation
of contract, recovery of payment, blacklisting and penal action".
The Issue: Allegations
Money was transferred to SP Tyagi; Former Air Chief Marshal.
Three middlemen Haschke, Geroso and Michel were involved in trasfering money to
the family.
IDS was transferred money. It was a shell(front) company set up by Finmeccanica.
2009: IDS Infometrix had contract with Finmechanicca and that contract was acquired
by Aeromatrix ( Directors: Haschke, Geroso)
Greek Tombstone Bill/ civil service reform bill
Trio of the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International
Monetary Fund (IMF) that has been providing the country with loans for the past
three years, in exchange for harsh fiscal measures and violent structural reforms.
Passing the civil service reform bill was a prerequisite to unlocking the latest round
of bailout money from the European Union and IMF.
The bill dictates the redeployment (mobility) of thousands of civil servants.

4,200 civil servants, including teachers, school wardens and municipal police, will be
placed in a mobility reserve program where they will receive 75 per cent of their
salary for an eightmonth period, at the end of which, if they have not accepted a
transfer to some other administrative department, they risk losing their jobs.
The jobless rate amongst young people has reached a recordhigh of 64 percent in
Greek.
75% Tax rate proposed by Hollande
Franois Hollande promised a 75% top incometax rate

The Constitutional Council struck down this flagship measure just days before it was
due to take effect, ruling it anticonstitutional.
It rejected the measure for breaching the principle of fiscal equality between
households, a cornerstone of Frances tax code.
1789 declaration of rights, taxes must be levied on citizens in proportion to their
means; an excessive tax rate breaches this principle.
The Leveson Inquiry into the culture, practice and ethics of the Press
An independent regulatory body for the press should be established which would
promote high standards, including having the power to investigate serious breaches
and sanction newspapers.
The new body should be backed by legislation designed to assess whether it is doing
its job properly.
An arbitration system should be created through which people who say they have
been victims of the press can seek redress without having to go through the courts.
Newspapers that refuse to join the new body could face direct regulation by media
watchdog Ofcom.
The body should be independent of current journalists, the government and
commercial concerns, and not include any serving editors, government members or
MPs.
The body should consider encouraging the press to be as transparent as possible in
relation tosources for its stories, if the information is in the public domain.
A whistleblowing hotline should be established for journalists who feel under
pressure to do unethical things.
Politicians of all parties had developed "too close a relationship with the press in a
way which has not been in the public interest".
The relationship between politicians and press over the last three decades has
damaged the perception of public affairs.
When chasing stories, journalists have caused "real hardship and, on occasion,
wreaked havoc with the lives of innocent people". Press behaviour, at times, "can only
be described as outrageous".
At the News of the World, quite apart from phone hacking, there was a failure of
systems of management and compliance. There was a general lack of respect for
individual privacy and dignity at the paper.

Italian Marines Issue
Massimiliano Latorre and Salvatore Girone: the Marines aboard the merchant ship
Enrica Lexie accused of shooting and killing two fishermen off the Kerala coast after
mistaking them for pirates.
February: They were permitted by the Supreme Court to visit Italy to cast their votes
in the national election, on a promise by the Italian government that they would return
to India to face trial.
The Supreme Court examined the scope and ambit of the United Nations Convention
on the Laws of the seas (UNCLOS) and the Maritime Zones Act, 1976 and directed
constitution of the Special Court to try the marines. Para 109 of the judgment says that
even the question of jurisdiction could be decided afresh, by the Special Court by
taking into account the arguments of both the countries
The Court also went so far as to leave the jurisdiction question open, saying Italy
could challenge Indias right to try the two men in the special court.
Vienna convention. Article 41 of the Vienna convention imposes a duty on the
member country to abide by the laws of the party nations.
There are many issues involved like:
o The interpretation of the applicable jurisdictional provisions of the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
o The extension of domestic criminal law to the Contiguous Zone.
o The issue of sovereign immunity of the Marines and contempt of court.
The power to punish for contempt itself is a constitutional power vested in the
Supreme Court by virtue of Article 129.
On the contrary, the principle of diplomatic immunity in Section 2 of the Diplomatic
Relations (Vienna Convention) Act, 1972 gives certain provisions of the Vienna
Convention on Diplomatic Relations, 1961.
Clause that implies that it overrides other laws. However it is a fundamental legal
fallacy to contend that such a statutory law can override a constitutional power.
In Indian National Steamship Company v. Maux Faulbaum, the Calcutta High Court
held that the Government of Indonesia in approaching court for relief had waived its
sovereign immunity.
Under Article 41 of the Vienna Convention, it is a duty on those enjoying privileges
and immunities to respect the laws and regulations of the receiving (host) state. There
is little doubt that by falsely swearing on affidavit before the Supreme Court of India,
and brazenly disrespecting its order, the Italian Ambassador has shown wanton
disregard for the laws and regulations of India.
AFRICA: The Dark Continent

How Libya's 2011 War changed Africa
The destruction of Moammar Qaddafi's dictatorship by a spontaneous uprising and a
Western intervention has just wreaked havoc in Africa's northern half.
The central area is Libya, Algeria, Mali, and Niger where the Tuaregs, a semi
nomadic ethnic minority group, lives.
Qaddafi used Libya's oil wealth to train, arm, and fund large numbers of Tuaregs to
fight the armed uprising in 2011. When he fell, the Tuaregs took the guns back out
with them to Algeria and Mali, where they took control of territory.
In Mali, they led a fullfledged rebellion that, for a time, seized the country's northern
half. Al-Qaeda moved into the vacuum they left, conquering entire towns in Mali
and seizing fossil fuel facilities in Algeria.
Criminal enterprises have flourished in this semiarid belt of land known as the

Sahel. So have vast migration routes, of Africans looking to find work and a better
life in Europe.
At the same time, armed conflict is getting worse in Nigeria and Sudan, both major oil
producers. Qaddafi's fall was far from the sole cause of all of this, but it brought just
the right combination of disorder, guns, and militias to make everything a lot worse.
Mali
There are two groups Tuaregs and blacks.
In north, in 1990s; a group called Patritique Ganda Koy (PGK) were responsible of
ethnic cleansing of Tuaregs.
The army had been weaken by design to reduce its power to overthrow government.
Porous borders and opportunities in Libya attracted Tuaregs, Qadhafi recruited them
in Libyan army.
After the fall of Qadhafi, Tuaregs returned to Northen Mali and started capturing
cities and united under a banner National Movement for the Liberation of Azawads
(MNLA).
At the same time ethnic rebellions united with groups like Ansar Dine, MUJAO
(Movement for Oneness and Jehad) and AQIM.
French led Operation Sarvar cleared Malian Cities of these rebels. UN had taken over
the security of Mali.
EU will give USD 678 Mn for the reconstruction of Mali.
Somalia
Kenyan troops along with African Union fought against AlShabab and made them
leave the port city of Kismoayo.
Kismayo was under the siege with AlShabab since 2008.
Since 1991, after the ouster of MD Siad Barre, there was no stability.
The AlShabab is responsible for the Kenya Mall Attack. They say that it was the
retaliation of the African Union fight against them.
The first meeting of the first semi parliament took place in the Airport building.
Congo
Tutsis-Hutus Conflict
The bloody history of Hutu and Tutsi conflict stained the 20th century, from the
slaughter of 80,000 to 200,000 Hutus by the Tutsi army in Burundi in 1972 to the
1994 Rwanda genocide in which Hutu militias targeted Tutsis, resulting in a 100day
death toll between 800,000 and 1 million.
It is class warfare, with the Tutsis perceived to have greater wealth and social status
(as well as favoring cattle ranching over what is seen as the lowerclass farming of the
Hutus).
The Tutsis are thought to have originally come from Ethiopia, and arrived after the
Hutu came from Chad.
March 23 movement is a rebel militant group based in eastern areas of the Democratic
Republic of Congo.
Bosco Ntaganda is the military chief of staff of the National Congress for the
Defense of the People (CNDP), an armed militia group operating in the North Kivu
province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) He is wanted by the
International Criminal Court for the war crimes of enlisting and conscripting children
under the age of fifteen and using them to participate actively in hostilities.
Hutu or Abahutu, are an ethnic group in Central Africa. They mainly live in Rwanda,
Burundi and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tutsi or Abatutsi, are an ethnic group in Central Africa They are the second largest
population division among the three largest groups in Rwanda and Burundi, the other
two being the Hutu (largest) and the Twa (smallest).
The Burundi Civil War was an armed conflict lasting from 1993 to 2005. The civil
war was the result of long standing ethnic divisions between the Hutu and the Tutsi
tribes in Burundi.
After 1994 genocide, Rwanda got liberal aid and support from the international
community.
Watch my youtube video for clarity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee
FQ35PXRM&list=PLGBRsHOByCXUD3rqJdbmcfz_b88v7CdT
The govt and M23 rebels do not have good track record in human rights.
M23 rebels are supported by Rwanda and Uganda.
M23 rebels had taken over Goma, important city of Central African Republic.
M23 rebels create havoc in south and North Kivu provinces.
The conflict is triggered by natural resource ownership issue and TutsiHutu conflict.
Central African Republic

Peace deal signed between Seleka and President Bozoze.
Seleka demanded that some 2000 rebels should be recruited in armed forces and south
African forces should be asked to leave the country.
January: The rebel organization; Seleka had captured 4 regional capitals.
ECCAS peacekeepers were deployed in CAR for peaceful dialogue.
March: Bozize fled the country when Seleka captured Bengui.
UN in Congo
Worlds main efforta 14yearold UN peacekeeping missionhas failed to end
Africas mini world war, which started as an ethnic conflict sparked by the
genocide next door in Rwanda before descending into murderous anarchy farther
afield.
The Rwandan government backed
Congolese rebels until recently but, shamed
by their cruelty and by international
outrage, it has abandoned them.
The UN Security Council deployed 3,000
troops to fight at least some of the rebels.
Soldiers from South Africa, Tanzania and
Malawi wearing UN insignia will take on
the irregulars who sow mayhem in Congos
east.
This is the first time that the UN will send
its own troops into battle.
In the past the Security Council has
authorised the use of all necessary force but has delegated the fighting to posses
from willing nations.
In the Korean war the Americans were in command.
In Afghanistan and Libya NATO took charge.
In Congo, however, the UN itself will be responsible for artillery fire, helicopter
gunshipsand the inevitable casualties. Should the UN really be doing this?

The UNs neutrality is a valued asset. Risking it can be justified only as a last resort
and when a mission enjoys broad international approval.
Congo fits that description. No powerful nation has been prepared to take the job on
independently; not even those keen to intervene in the bloody quagmire of Syria are
tempted to send troops to Congo, no matter how prolonged and grotesque its peoples
nightmare may be. Mindful of this, the Security Council authorised the new force
unanimously.
All previous efforts to end the bloodshed have failed. The recent history of wartorn
African countries like Sierra Leone shows that peace brought about by foreign troops
can boost political reforms and generate prosperity.
Ghana Beacon Of Democracy

In a zone marred by coups, monarchs and military rules, democracy in Ghana is an
exception, rather than a rule.
But it had proved that democracy is possible in Unstable and ethnically sensitive
Africa.
Ghana is one of the largest cocoa producers in the world , It is also home to Lake
Volta, the largest artificial lake in the world by surface area.
Ghana is a member of the South Atlantic Peace and Cooperation Zone, the United
Nations, the Commonwealth of Nations, the African Union, the Economic
Community of West African States and an associate member of La Francophonie
Ghana was created as a parliamentary democracy at independence in 1957, followed
by alternating military and civilian governments.
The 1992 constitution divides powers among a president, parliament, cabinet, council
of state, and an independent judiciary.
Universal suffrage is followed.
Recently elections were held in Ghana to select its President and Prime Minister. John
Mahama secured more than 50% of the votes and became the president.
The election was fought over 1 issue: how best to manage the education system of
this country.
Darfur Conflict
The Darfur Conflict was a guerrilla conflict or civil war centered on the Darfur region
of Sudan.
It began in February 2003 when the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) and
Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) groups in Darfur took up arms, accusing the
Sudanese government of oppressing nonArab Sudanese in favor of Sudanese Arabs.
It is also known as the Darfur Genocide
Darfur is located in the west Sudan. Darfur is dominated by Sudanese Arabs. in the
course of time, indigenous non arab Sudanese were marginalized. Indigenous
people started Armed rebel groups
Sudan Liberation Movement/Army, Justice and Equality Movement, Liberation and
Justice Movement , Indigenous people of Darfur are major rebel groups.
February 2013: in Doha, UN and AU mediated peace deal was signed between JEM
and Sudanese government.
Liberation and Justice Movement had signed peace deal already.
The conflict started once again. The country is at the verge of civil war.
Kenya: Westgate Mall

Kenya In Somalia
Since launching Operation Linda Nchi (Protect the Country) in October 2011 after a
series of kidnappings blamed on alShabaab, many observers have noted that the
KDFs ongoing presence has failed to achieve its objectives of:
o Routing the group from its center of gravity in Somalia and
o Establishing a buffer zone in the bordering Jubba region through key Somali
allies like Ahmed Madobes Ras Kamboni.
The offensive by the Somali government, AMISOM, and Ethiopia that forced al
Shabaab to withdraw from many (but not all) major towns has stalled after forcing al
Shabaab to withdraw from its financial hub of Kismayo.
As a result, alShabaab is under much less pressure and has continued to focus on its
breadandbutter of asymmetrical attacks
on convoys and logistical lines while
holding most towns and roads outside the
regional capitals. It also has tried to
maintain local support through its charity
work, recreational events, and
construction efforts.
Importantly, alShabaab continues to
freely cross the border to attack (and in
some cases kidnap) Kenyan security
forceseven when Kenyan officials were
aware of intelligence indicating an
imminent attack.
Rather than create a stable buffer zone,
Kenyas role in the Jubaland issue has
led to potentially destabilizing interclan
feuds and a political quagmire that is
only now temporarily being held together
by a deal reached in Ethiopia among only a few parties to the conflict.
Lastly, accusations that the KDF in Kismayo has profited from the illegal charcoal
trade or are exploiting its relationship with the Ogaden clandominated Ras Kamboni
have resulted in some calling for KDF troops to be placed in Kismayo and could
make certain communities susceptible to collaborate with alShabaab or other armed
groups, as well as to deny providing the KDF with helpful info for its operations.
In recent years, alShabaab spokespersons and proShabaab media have continued to
message its presence as trying to govern and marginalize Somalis in traditionally
Somali landseven recently translating into Somali a controversial 2008 Kenyan op
ed calling for Ethiopia and Kenya to annex Somalia.
Kenyas longterm presence and perceived bias in Somalia could make these
narratives more resonant and make it tougher for the KDF to solicit the help of local
communities during the course of its operations.
Kenyas Weakness versus Al-Shabaabs Strength
Though it receives some AMISOM assistance, Kenya continues to spend valuable
resources in Somalia where its forces do not have significant experience in counter
terrorism and counterinsurgency operations.

This has also removed Kenyan forces that could be monitoring alShabaab and other
criminal activities in many areas of its underguarded northeastern province, which
some Kenyan police have warned are too risky for travel.
In contrast, alShabaab has responded against Kenya with a series of attacks that fit
within its expertise in asymmetrical warfare and are comparably low cost operations.
For example, the Westgate attack likely took sophisticated planning and coordination
but it does not appear to be a financially prohibitive one.
Put all together, Kenyas Somalia operations arguably are weakening Kenyas
domestic security sector and may have a role in exacerbating the fundamental socio
political drivers of conflict in Somalias Jubba region where it seeks to create a stable
buffer zone.
Projecting longterm, Kenyas strategy in Somalia could prove expensive (note bin
Ladens call to drain enemies economies), ineffective, and a threat to security in
Somalia and its own domestic security if not approached in a more balanced and
prudent way.
Peace And Security Council
The Peace and Security Council is the organ of the African Union in charge of
enforcing union decisions.
It is a 15 member body, of which five are elected to threeyear terms, and ten for two
year terms. Countries are immediately eligible upon the expiration of their terms.
Functions
o promotion of Peace, security and stability in Africa
o Preventive diplomacy and the maintenance of peace
o Management of catastrophes and humanitarian actions
o Replacing the Central Organ of the Mechanism for the prevention,
management and regulation of conflicts in Africa, created in 1993 by Heads of
States during the Summit in Tunis.
Nigeria
Boko Haram was Founded in 2002
Initially focused on opposing Western education Boko Haram means "Western
education is forbidden" in the Hausa language
Launched military operations in 2009 to create an Islamic state
Thousands killed, mostly in northeastern Nigeria but also attacks on police and UN
headquarters in capital, Abuja
Some three million people affected. They kidnap people for any purpose, mostly
ransom. This time they have kidnapped many schoolgirls.
India Burundi
General cooperation is an important platform for sharing and learning between both
the countries.
Both condemn the international terrorism at all the relevant bilateral and multilateral
platforms.
India had successfully implemented telemedicine and teleeducation program under
PanAfrica eNetwork project.
India extended LOC $80Mn for Kabu HEP.

Under ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) India imparted training to
Burundi Administrators.
President of Burundi; (Pierre NkurunZiza) and India President signed
o Education exchange program
o MOUs for the cooperation in rural development, health and medicine
India- Africa
the present day relations between these two masses of the world started only after
India made itself free from clutches of the British and many African regions gained
their Independence in the next decade. The 21st century has seen a renewed initiative
of India with the IndiaAfrica Forum Summit (IAFS) in 2008. Some similar initiatives
have been taken by other Asian countries (China) and few critics call it a new
scramble for Africa by Asian countries to acquire African raw materials and energy
resources.
Both these regions are now on a journey towards economic emancipation and hitherto
establishing a new world order. The continent of Africa, embracing one fifth of the
worlds land area, encompassing 54 independent nations and sustaining a population
of about 1.032 billion, has for many decades been a preeminent concern of Indias
foreign policy.
Africa has half the membership of NAM, onethird of the UN and occupies a
prominent role in SouthSouth cooperation. Both regions have undergone similar kind
of sociopolitical and economic transformations, including the liberalization of their
economies. As members of the NonAligned Movement, the Commonwealth, G15
and the newly formed Indian Ocean Rim initiative, India and Africa share common
views on most international issues.
The regions share a common commitment to the ideals of peace, nonalignment and
economic justice. Further dwelling into their relations can be put under three major
heads: Historical connections; Mid 50s to late 70s ; and Current Dynamics.
Historical connections
Shared History: Contacts between India and Africa can be traced back to ancient
times when Indian merchants from its western seaboard traded along the eastern
littorals of Africa. The Indian Ocean was the connecting factor in this trade relation.
The seasonal reversal of monsoon winds in the Indian Ocean was very helpful for the
traders, who utilized it for navigation. References in Vedic scriptures, as well as the
travelogues and navigators diaries, further attest the fact that strong relations existed
between the two ancient cultures. This African Diaspora in India predates the later
indentured Diaspora of India in Africa. Few other traces to reinforce historical
connections are as follows:
A large number of Africans came during medieval times, formed a major section of
Muslim armies and later settled here; called siddis.
Regular trade relations existed between India and Egypt in the eighth century BC.
The cotton goods and silk cloth which were taken from India were used in wrapping
Egyptian mummies.

During AD 150308 cotton goods and silk products were exported from ports of
Gujarat and Bengal to Berber and Ethiopia.
In 1657, Emperor Aurangzeb of India received an emissary sent by the King of
Abyssinia.
During 169293 there was considerable increase in Ethiopias trade with India.
In 1860 the Indian government made owning or trading in slaves a penal offence.
In 1880 the telegraphic line between India and Zanzibar was completed.
In 1882, the Indian navy undertook submarine operations for the removal of
obstructions in the Suez Canal.
In April 1893, Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi reached South Africa to represent a
client in commercial transaction but on being subjected to racial indignities, decided
to remain to defend the rights of his compatriots.
Gandhis Role:
Gandhi took up the cause of Natal Indians and founded the Natal Indian Congress. In
1895, building of KenyaUganda Railway began which encouraged the immigration
of Indians who fanned out as shopkeepers and construction workers.
In 1906, Gandhi led Satyagraha or passive resistance campaign against the press laws
in Transversal.
In 1907, Gandhi launched his passive resistance campaign in order to halt the erosion
of the rights of Indians in South Africa.
In 1909, Gopal Krishna Gokhale, then president of the Indian National Congress,
organized a South African Passive Resistance Relief Fund.
In 1912, Gokhale undertook a personal tour of investigation in South Africa after
which, significantly, the recruitment of indentured labor in Bombay was terminated.
In 1914, the GandhiSmuts agreement was concluded.
In 1926, the South African National Congress and the INC held a round table
conference. This conference resulted in the Cape Town Agreement, which recognized
Indians as potentially equal citizens.
In 1932, Kunwar Maharaj Singh was appointed as the agent of the Government of
India in South Africa.
His philosophy, which he successfully put into practice to achieve Indias
independence, inspired a generation of African leaders including Kwame Nkrumah of
Ghana, Obafemi Awolowo of Nigeria, Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, and Kenneth
Kaunda of Zambia in their own national liberation campaigns.
Nehrus Role:
While Gandhi was a common icon for IndoAfrican relations, it was Jawaharlal Nehru
who gave the relationship its political structure.
Formation of political shape for IndoAfrican ties.
He supported the decolonization of African states, which he considered a continuation
of Indias own decolonization.

He took a firm stand against racial discrimination in South Africa and broke off
Indias diplomatic and trade relations with the racist regime.
Nehru also took a categorical stand on issues on people of Indian origin settled in
Africa, and made it clear that they must identify with the local majority community
and should not seek any special privilege over the natives in the country of their
adoption.
Nehru as the first Prime Minister of India pioneered in good foreign relations with
Africa.
Mid 50s to late 70s
Strengthening of ties
The Bandung Conference (1955) and the AfroAsian, Peoples Solidarity Conference
of Cairo (1958), NAM, the United Nations, the Commonwealth, and AfroAsian
organizations were mainly on the lines of anticolonialism and antiracism. Indias
moderate stand on issues like Mau Mau rebellion, the Algerian war of independence
and the Congolese civil war, did not appeal to Africans. On the other hand, the
Chinese militancy and advocacy for armed struggle did appeal to Africans.
South-south engagement
In the aftermath of the Chinese attack in 1962, India stopped treating African
countries as a bloc and became more selective in its friendship. International
situations and Indias achievements at home played an important role in Indias move
to befriend African countries.
With newly acquired selfconfidence in 1970s, Indian policy became more proactive
towards the African countries. For India it was the planned, systematic and persistent
attempt of its policy pursuits that took the problems in its stride and exploited the
favorable circumstances that came its way. India again became a power to which
Africa turned for help and assistance, and as a model for development. India utilized
its diplomatic strength in international forums like the UN, NAM and Group of 77,
to develop southsouth cooperation. Both the African states and India underlined the
need for economic cooperation among themselves.
It was at the Lusaka Summit (1970) that the Indian Prime Minister, Indira Gandhi,
articulated and gave the call for southsouth cooperation. She pledged Indian
technology and human resources for this. On the issue of the struggle for liberation,
India worked closely with the African countries in their fight against apartheid in
South Africa and Namibia. India accorded diplomatic status to the African National
Congress (ANC) in 1967 and the SouthWest African Peoples Organization
(SWAPO) in 1985. Apart from diplomatic support, it added material assistance, but
the material assistance remained meager due to Indias own limitation on giving more
in those terms.
Current Dynamics

Current dynamics amidst both region is the understanding that led to emerging areas
of cooperation, which include the economic field, energy sector, human resources
development, capacity building and security and maritime cooperation.
Economic cooperation
Africa acknowledges Indias economic growth and finds the Indian model relevant.
India provides Africa with opportunities in different areas, having launched a number
of initiatives for closer cooperation with Africa, which include the Focus Africa
program to increase trade with the continent and the TechnoEconomic Approach for
Africa India Movement (TEAM9) initiative in 2003 to enhance cooperation with
western and central African countries.
Indias bilateral (nonoil) trade with Africa has grown exponentially, during the 10
year period of 19982008, while imports and exports have risen. What is significant is
that the balance of trade has again shifted in favor of Africa, and Africas share of
Indias overall trade has increased.
Human resources development and capacity building
Indias technological capabilities and developmental experience are germane to
Africas socioeconomic development. One of the strong focuses of the current Indian
partnership with Africa is the empowerment of people through capacity building and
human resources development, specifically highlighted under the IndiaAfrica
Framework of Cooperation agreed at the 2008 IA Summit.
Indias support of the New Partnership for Africas Development (NEPAD) initiative,
information and communication technology (ICT), scholarships and training slots for
African students under the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC)
program. Africa is now the largest recipient of Indias ITEC programs.
One further hightech aspect of Indias economic cooperation with the African
countries has been offering its growing space expertise; technology and facilities at its
Thumba launch station (Kerala). This was shown in the PSLVC15 Indian rocket
being used at Thumba, in July 2010, to launch an Algerian satellite. With this launch
it could be said that India has started using space diplomacy as a foreign tool in
Africa.
Energy cooperation
Energy cooperation is now one of the prominent areas of economic partnership
between India and Africa. It is one of the prime drivers of the current relationship.
Indias economy is projected to grow at a rate of somewhere between 8% and 10%
annually over the next two decades and currently it is the fifth largest consumer of
energy in the world, accounting for some 3.7% of total global consumption. Onethird
of it comes from traditional sources of fuel, including wood, dung, crop residue,
biogas and waste.
In order to diversify its energy sources, it is investing in energy assets overseas. In
this context Africas energy resources are very significant for India. Almost one

quarter of Indias crude oil imports are sourced from Africa. The Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation Videsh Limited (OVL) has large overseas investment of over in Sudan. It
has also acquired stakes in Senegal and other African countries like Cte dIvoire,
Libya, Egypt, Nigeria and Gabon.
Military security co-operation:
India has been involved in its own bilateral military security links with African
countries. India provides military training to officers of various African defense
forces, one of the important component of Indias Africa policy as Africa lacks
military training institutions.
Since the 1960s India has provided military training to a number of African countries,
primarily from Anglophone Africa. The training covers fields such as security and
strategic studies, defense management, artillery, electronics, mechanical, marine and
aeronautical engineering, antimarine warfare, logistics management and qualitative
assurance services. During the last decade and a half, over 1,000 officers from 13
African countries have been provided training by the Indian Army.
Maritime cooperation is a noticeable component of Indias current engagement with
Africa. The growing concern in the Indian Ocean owing to piracy, smuggling, drugs
and armstrafficking, and terrorism all threaten the security of the Sea Lines of
Communication (SLOCs). The Indian Navy regularly engages in naval exercises and
naval diplomacy along the African littoral, and at the national level over the past few
years India has deepened security and diplomatic cooperation with various AU
members like South Africa, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius and the Seychelles.
Naval cooperation between India and South Africa was already apparent by 2000.
bilateral trade was worth $1 billion in 1995. By 2008, that figure had hit $36 billion,
according to the African Development Bank Group, and in 2011 it had risen to $45
billion.
Exports from India tend to be manufactured and finished goods, including transport
equipment, industrial machinery and pharmaceuticals. Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya
and Tanzania are the most important destinations for Indian products in SubSaharan
Africa.
Mining and hydrocarbons are key drivers of Indian engagement in Africa. According
to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), based in South Africa, India is the
worlds fifth largest consumer of oil and will be in third place by 2030.
Delhi is now eager to diversify its portfolio of crude energy suppliers, mainly by
boosting the amount of oil it purchases from African countries. To this end, India has
been working hard to nurture its relations with major oilproducing African
countries, including Nigeria, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea, Cte dIvoire and Sudan.
India is exploring uranium mining opportunities in Niger and Namibia.
Indias Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) programme is a
particularly useful framework in which ICT skills transfer can take place. The ITEC
programme has been under way since 1964, focusing on training, specific projects,
deputation of Indian experts abroad, study tours and donating of equipment for

example, ITEC has provided 1,350 Ghanaians with training in India. Across the
continent, the programme is proving beneficial in a range of areas that have a
particularly promising outlook in Africa.
India also provides a different model of development a model of pluralistic,
multicultural, democratic setup that suits the African countries with their myriad
ethnic, linguistic, religious and tribal divisions
India South Africa
India is the worlds major jewellery maker in 2008 09, the gems and jewellery sector
constituted 13 percent of Indias total exports. Furthermore, India is the worlds leading
processor of diamonds, accounting for 85 percent in terms of volume on the total world
market. Gold in particular defines Indias economic relations with South Africa, the latter
being the worlds leading supplier of gold.
IBSA:
On June 6, 2003, the Foreign Ministers of India, Brazil and South Africa met in Brasilia and
agreed to set up a Dialogue Forum for regular consultations on such matters. Subsequently, in
2006, this was upgraded to Summit level. On June 6, 2003, the Foreign Ministers of India,
Brazil and South Africa met in Brasilia and agreed to set up a Dialogue Forum for regular
consultations on such matters. Subsequently, in 2006, this was upgraded to Summit level.
16 Sectoral Working Groups have been established in areas such as health, agriculture,
education, human settlements, S&T and defence. South Africa has also been admitted as a
member of the BRICS grouping.
We are also engaging with South Africa on BRICS platform.
Add more.. Your Home Work.

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2014

Compiled by: HARVEER SINH

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Indias Look East Policy and ASEAN

India and Middle East

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This Document is compiled from many sources. Google, facebook and

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01: International Relations: TERMS

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#It identifies those

# Export Controls for

If you wish to contribute

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Indias Foreign Policy: Past,

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Support for Disarmament

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India and Disarmament

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challenge is to implement our infrastructure projects in Myanmar without inordinate

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If you wish to contribute something for

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04: Indias relations with Neighbors

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4B: Pakistan Failed State, Not Yet

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New Visa Agreement

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The Insecurity Complex and the deadly Triangle

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04C: Indias Neighborhood: Bangladesh

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o Bangladeshi migrants fulfill the technical requirements of an Indian citizen by

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4D: Indias Neighborhood: Bhutan, The Trusted Friend

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