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Department of Civil Engineering

ENCI 471: Introduction to Project Management
MID-TERM EXAMINATION 2: Fall Term 2004
(Nov. 25-2004)

Instructors: Dr. George Jergeas and Dr. Janaka Y. Ruwanpura

Duration of the Examination: 70 minutes
Location:
Total

100 Marks +/5

Instructions:
1. Answer ALL questions.
2. Ensure that YOUR NAME is clearly and legibly printed on the Cover and the
Second Page of the Examination Paper.
3. Ensure that YOUR UCID is clearly and legible printed on the Second Page of the
Examination Paper.
4. The Marks for each question are indicated.
5. Show/write all the calculations and assumptions relevant to your answers.
6. This is a CLOSED BOOK examination.
7. Any handheld electronic calculator is strictly allowed to be used for computation
purposes only.
8. No cellular phones can be used during the examination for any purpose.
9. You are STRICTLY reminded that the University of Calgary Examination
Regulations regarding CHEATING policy.

LAST NAME OF THE STUDENT: _______________________________________

FIRST NAME OF THE STUDENT: ______________________________________

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ENCI 471: Introduction to Project Management
MID-TERM EXAMINATION 2: Fall Term 2004
(Nov 25-2004)

UCID NUMBER: __________________________

MARKING SCHEME

Question
1
2
3
4
5

Maximum
40
10
23
27
+/- 5

TOTAL

100+/- 5

Student

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Question 1
Design A

Project
Finish

Project
Start

Design B

Design C

Figure 1: Network Diagram for Design Project

Table 1: Durations - Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Design Project
Simulation Design Design Design Path
Path
Critical Sorted
Prob.
Run
A
B
C
A
B+C
Path
CP
1
33.04
15.84
13.42 33.04
29.26
33.04
24.20
0.1
2
30.87
13.02
12.36 30.87
25.39
30.87
27.28
0.2
3
32.71
8.66
11.17 32.71
19.83
32.71
28.45
0.3
4
30.83
8.65
14.81 30.83
23.45
30.83
28.73
0.4
5
29.15
11.15
10.41 29.15
21.56
29.15
29.15
0.5
6
28.23
12.34
16.39 28.23
28.73
28.73
30.83
0.6
7
21.71
13.73
10.47 21.71
24.20
24.20
30.87
0.7
8
22.62
13.33
15.11 22.62
28.45
28.45
31.36
0.8
9
29.53
14.95
16.41 29.53
31.36
31.36
32.71
0.9
10
27.28
12.84
14.17 27.28
27.01
27.28
33.04
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a) What is the mean duration of the Project (7 Marks)?
Take the average of the CP = 29.66

b) What is/are the critical activity/activities in the network in Figure 1? Explain

your answer using facts (4 Marks).

Criticality Index of Path A is 60%

Criticality Index if B and C = 40%
(Most critical is Act A).

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c) Develop a Cumulative Probability Density Curve (10 Marks)

d) What is the project duration at 55% confidence level (3 Marks)?

29.75 days (close to that) or less.

e) What is the project duration at 90% confidence level (3 Marks)?

32.71 days or less

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g) What is the probability of finishing the project between 28 and 31 days (5
Marks)?

Finishing in 28 days = 25% probability

Finishing in 31 days = 72% probability
Hence, 47% probability of finishing between 28 and 31 days (or close to 47%)

h) If activity B is calculated using Uniform Distribution, what are the low and high
values for Activity B? (5 Marks)
Rnd #
0.98
0.63
0.08
0.08
0.39
0.54
0.72
0.67
0.87
0.60

B
15.84
13.02
8.66
8.65
11.15
12.34
13.73
13.33
14.95
12.84

Random Variate = L + Rnd x (H-L)

Take any two situations
12.84 = L + 0.6 x (H L)
11.15 = L + 0.39 x (H L)
L=8 and H=16

i) Is this a risky project? If you are the consultant of the Monte Carlo Analysis, what
is the figure will you quote to the owner based on the curve that you have developed
in Part c above? Why? (3 Marks)
The answer of this question is subjective. We will consider your individual answers if you
have at least addressed some valid issues related to skewness, shape of the curve, benefit
of taking the risk, tolerance of risk, etc.
Somewhat risky because the Prob (50%) is 29,66 days. The lowest is 24.20 and highest is
33.04. It is kind of skewed to the right, and as a result, I would select a figure above 50%.
I would select 31 days which is 72% chance of completing the project.

Question 2
Dr. Ruwanpura provided Figure 2 and 3 to the Project Team after simulating their project
schedule on Developing a cost effective Parking Lot Search Tool for Drivers using
Wireless Mobile Services.

Figure 2: ______________________________

Figure 3: ________________________________________

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a) What is the purpose of the Figure 2? How does this figure benefit the project
team (3 Marks)?

The purpose of the Figure 2 is to determine the confidence of finishing the project within
any duration between the lowest and the highest range. For example, what is the
probability of finishing the project in x days or what is the duration at y% confidence.
This will benefit the stakeholders to analyze the chances of completing the project in any
day and to determine their risk exposure. This figure also helps the team to determine a
confidence to complete the project based on the risks and uncertainties that they have
considered in inputting the ranges.

b) What is the purpose of Figure 3? How does this figure benefit the project
team (3 Marks)?
The purpose of the Figure 3 is to identify the potential early completion benefit or delay
cost of the project based on a Targeted completion day. For example, what is the
loss/benefit if the project is completed in x days.
This will benefit the stakeholders to justify whether their target duration is realistic or
not. It also helps to determine what the loss/benefit is and to develop alternative plans to
either determine better realistic target duration or to develop some mitigation strategies to
achieve the intended duration on target. It also helps the stakeholders consider the impact
of duration on the project cost/ benefit objective.

NOTE to students: The answers (a) and (b) given above provide a guidance only. If you
have answered them considering some of the ideas given above, you will get marks. We
will look at each answer very carefully. We will consider your individual answers if you
have at least address some valid issues

c) What is the intended Target duration of the Project Team that was used to
develop Figure 3 (2 Marks)?
The curve crosses (Figure 3) at 47-48% probability from bottom which means 52 -53%
from top. That means the probability of finishing the project in 52 or 53%/. Lets assume
52% probability.
Go to Figure 2 now: 52% confidence is 53 days or less (approximately)
Hence Target Duration is 53 days (completion of the project within 53 days)
d) By analyzing the graphs, the team leader is interested to finish the project in
50 days. What would the early completion benefit or late completion cost
due to this decision (2 Marks)?
50 days means (from Fig 2) 23% confidence.
Refer Fig 3 now. 23% from top means 77% crossing point. Draw a horizontal line that
crosses the curve.
There is an early completion cost saving of approximately $ 2,500.

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Question 3
The Birdeyes Real Estate Co. owns 800 acres of undeveloped land on a scenic lake in the
heart of the Ozark Mountains. In the past, little or no regulation was applied to new
developments around the lake. The lake shores are now dotted with vacation homes.
Because of the lake of sewage service, septic tanks, mostly improperly installed, are in
extensive use. Over the years, seepage from the septic tanks has resulted in a server water
pollution problem.
To curb further degradation in the quality of water, county officials approved
stringent ordinances applicable to all future developments.
1.
2.
3.
4.

Only single-, double-, and triple-family homes can be constructed, with the
single-family homes accounting for at least 50% of the total.
To limit the number of septic tanks, minimum lot sizes of 2, 3, and 4 acres are
required for single-,double-,and triple-family homes, respectively.
Recreation areas of 1 acre each must be established at the rate of one area per
200 families.
To preserve the ecology of the lake, underground water may not be pumped
for house or garden use.

The President of Birdeyes Real Estate is studying the possibility of developing the
companys 800 acres. The new development will include single-, double-, and triplefamily homes. It is estimated that 15% of the acreage will be consumed in the opening of
streets and easements for utilities. Birdeyes estimates the returns from the different
housing units as
Housing Unit
Net return per unit ($)

Single
$
10,000

Double
$
12,000

Triple
$
15,000

The cost of connecting water service to the area is proportionate to the number of
units constructed. However, the county stipulates that a minimum of $100,000 must be
collected for the project to be economically feasible. Additionally the expansion of the
water system beyond its present capacity is limited to 200,000 gallons per day during
peak periods. The following data summarize the cost of connecting water service as well
as the water consumption assumption assuming an average size family:
Housing Unit
Water service cost per unit
($)
Water consumption per unit
(gal/day)

Single
$

1,000
400

Double
$

1,200
600

Triple
$

1,400

Recreation
$

840

a) Identify the decision variables (4 Marks), and objective function (4 Marks)?

800
450

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b) Write five (5) constraints other than non-negativity type constraints (15 Marks)?

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Question 4
A surveying engineering company is engaged is four types of work: provincial control
surveys, engineering surveys, cadastral surveys, federal geodetic surveys. This work
comes from two sources: private contracts, government contracts. The companys senior
engineer has complied statistics over a one year period on the amount of each type of
work from each source and the profits accrued from each source. The surveyor has also
determined the limits on the amount of each type of work that the company handles in a
year. This date is set out in the following table.
Source of Work
Survey Type
Provincial
Engineering
Cadastral
Federal Geodetic
Profits ($/week)

Private Contract
0.1
0.3
0.5
0
$
4,000

Public Contract
0.2
0.2
0
0.5
$
5,000

Job Limits
(weeks per
year)
10
20
20
22

For example, the figures under Private Contract indicate that 10% of the companys
work from that source is provincial control, 30% is engineering, 50% is cadastral and
there are no federal geodetic surveys from that source, and the remaining 10% is not
productive in terms of profit. The average profit over one year from Private contracts
is $ 4,000 per week. The job limit figures indicate the maximum amount of time that the
company can devote to each type of work.

a) Identify the decision variables (3 Marks), objective function (3 Marks) and the
constraints (6 Marks).

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b) Solve the problem using graphical method. What is the maximum Profit (15 Marks)?

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BONUS/PENALTY

Question 5
Answer the following questions. If you answer the questions correctly, you will get 1 mark
each for each correct answer (bonus) and if your answer is wrong you will lose 1 Mark for
each incorrect answer (or partial answer). If you do not answer, you will not receive bonus
or penalty.
Write the first and the last names of the THREE lab partners of your lab group in ENCI 471
class. If you spell the names incorrectly you will lose marks.
a) _______________________________________________
b) ______________________________________________
c) ______________________________________________

d) Dr. Ruwanpura demonstrated a simulation example for a tunnel construction project.

What is the city/location of this construction project?
______________________________EDMONTON________________
e) In the same tunnel example, Dr. Ruwanpura mentioned a problem related with
________SURVEYORS_____________ who reduced the productivity of the work
by coming late to work.